The Housing Bubble

The Capital Times reports from Wisconsin. “Mortgage foreclosures in Dane County leapt nearly 80 percent in 2007, matching the national increase as the local housing boom went bust and risky loans went sour. Stella Morris and her family lost a west side condominium, last fall after the interest rate on their adjustable rate mortgage reset at a level they could not afford.”

“The increase in the interest rate, and monthly payment, for the couple’s adjustable rate mortgage came right when the condominium association raised its assessment rates and the family had some medical bills.”

“‘The last raise was $800 a month more. We just couldn’t swing it,’ she said. Beyond that was the back money owed on the mortgage, $27,000 at one point, said Morris, a stay-at-home mother of one whose husband is a computer consultant.”

“Morris said she earned extra money cleaning houses and walking dogs and held a garage sale to try to raise enough to bring the loan up to date. The couple eventually approached family and friends for loans. ‘We called everybody we knew, we couldn’t come up with that kind of money,’ Morris said.”

“Looking back, Morris said she wishes it had not been so easy to get a loan that proved too much to handle. ‘I think we went over our heads and they allowed it,’ Morris said. ‘I didn’t go to financial classes — I don’t know any of this stuff.’”

“Morris says she and her husband will spend the next year or two reestablishing their credit rate, so they can eventually buy a house or condominium again. ‘We’ll get through it,’ she said. ‘I think we’ll do a fixed rate this time, unless we get extremely disciplined and have a larger down payment,’ she said.”

“There’s more houses being foreclosed on, but for most of them, so much of the mortgage loan is outstanding that it makes little sense for anyone but the lender to buy them, said Janice Haak, who calls herself ‘the queen of foreclosures.’ At four recent auctions, nearly all of the properties for sale drew a single bidder: the lender.”

“Real estate agent Victor Villacrez said over the past few years he has seen an influx of Latino homeowners desperate to sell after falling behind in mortgage payments. ‘A lot of my clients don’t understand what they signed. A lot of English-speaking individuals have a hard time with the fine print on a mortgage,’ Villacrez said.”

“Villacrez said he works with the lenders to accept a ’short sale.’ ‘Probably 90 percent of my Hispanic clients looking to sell are in that position,’ he said.”

“The bungled home purchase will likely wipe out equity a client has been able to build and with it, the start of building ‘wealth.’”

“‘A lot of Latinos took the risk of going into home ownership because they want to a secure financial future for their families,’ he said. ‘That dream is gone.’”

The Post Crescent from Wisconsin. “In the greater Fox Cities area, housing starts were down about 9 percent in 2007 when compared with 2006. The Valley Home Builders Association recorded 898 housing starts in 2007, down from 986 in 2006. Housing starts for the organization, going back to 2001, peaked in 2003 when 1,796 were logged.”

“Christine Shaefer, executive vice president for VHBA, said Wisconsin did experience a building boom between 2001 and 2005.”

“‘That kind of pace was just unsustainable,’ she said. ‘Because the buying pace was so high, it increased the number of speculative homes that were built and in that economy it was feasible to build because new development was attractive to a lot of people.’”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “The owner of a large Milwaukee condominium project, facing major construction cost overruns and mounting debts, has filed for receivership - effectively ending its control of the development.”

“According to the filing, First Place owes nearly $59 million to a group of lenders and investors that helped finance the development of 115 condominiums overlooking the confluence of the Milwaukee and Menomonee rivers.”

“First Place on the River has been hailed as a major part of the downtown condo boom. But the development has had problems, including the firing of its original construction management firm.”

The Chicago Tribune from Illinois. “Another batch of dismal housing data hit the economy Tuesday, including worsening foreclosure rates at a time when recession fears are growing.”

“‘We’re still in the middle of all this,’ said Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Home Loans in Livonia, Mich. ‘I would expect the data to get worse before it gets better.’”

“A 20-city index tracked by Standard & Poor’s study found Chicago-area prices in November were 3.9 percent lower than the year before.”

“‘Six months ago, people were saying we will see prices hit rock bottom, and now I don’t think we’re seeing even the most optimistic people saying that,’ said Geoff Smith, VP of the Woodstock Institute in Chicago, which has studied foreclosure trends.”

“Larry Shaw said he isn’t seeing renewal in his South Side neighborhood: He’s seeing ‘For sale’ signs. ‘There are a lot of people in trouble,’ Shaw said. ‘I go down 87th Street and I see homes for sale. People are trying to sell their houses because they can’t afford it.’”

“Shaw said he fell four months behind in his mortgage last year after his loan rate jumped to 12.1 percent from 7.8 percent. He thought he had taken out a fixed-rate mortgage three years earlier.”

“Believing he had been deceived by his lender, he worked with a grass-roots organization that fights predatory lending, to pressure his lender to restructure the loan. Now he has a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7 percent, he said.”

“‘I think the government should step in and try to protect some of these homeowners from getting caught with predatory loans,’ Shaw said.”

“But J. Edward Katz, a business professor at Penn State University, said he doubted that government interventions could have broad effect. ‘I think we’re just going to have to let the market play out,’ Katz said. ‘The proposals may be in the right direction, in part. But they’re too little, and I think the situation has deteriorated too far.’”

“Smith said that if there’s any room for encouragement in the dreary data, it is that the decline in property values will make homes more affordable and pull buyers back into the market.”

“‘If you see property values coming back down to earth, that’s where you’re going to see a recovery, in affordability,’ he said.”

The Post Dispatch from Missouri. “The good old days for Bill Taylor, of Taylor-Morley Homes, were a mere two years ago. Sales were double what they are today, and his 150-person staff was three times larger.”

“To keep the company afloat, Taylor-Morley has sold off hundreds of undeveloped home sites. And while some of his competitors try to put a positive spin on one of the worst downturns in the home building industry, Taylor knows he’s not alone.”

“‘There’s hordes of people being laid off from other large companies,’ said Taylor, CEO of the Creve Coeur-based company.”

“Slower sales have meant growing volumes of unsold homes on the market. According to Zanola Co., as of November 2007, the St. Louis market had an inventory of 9,064 homes. And 3,143 of those were not sold, the highest rate of unsold new homes in at least 10 years.”

“‘Typically it is prudent to have two to three years of (land) inventory, but because the market was so strong, builders started pipelining four to five years of inventory,’ Taylor said.”

“‘Buyers have the advantage right now, so they are getting incentives where it counts,’ said Matt Belcher, president of Kirkwood-based Belcher Homes. ‘Besides sales incentives, they are also getting financial incentives. I know of builders that are selling inventory homes at right around break-even prices.’”

“Many are counting on lower interest rates to help boost the sluggish market. ‘Maybe it’s a little wishful thinking, but … between that and the prices, it is a great time to buy, and buyers may be ready to move,’ Belcher said.”

The Journal Gazette from Indiana. “Allen County foreclosure filings have almost tripled since 2005, according to a real estate tracking company.”

“Coldwell Banker Roth Wehrly Graber sold about 1,500 foreclosed homes in northeast Indiana last year, said John Bellio, president of sales. Many homeowners who fell behind on their payments made no down payment to buy their houses and then later refinanced to pay off other debts, Bellio said. These owners wound up owing more than their homes were worth.”

“Adjustable-rate mortgages and other unconventional loans ‘were enticing people to get in over their heads,’ said David Ruoff, president of Fort Wayne-based Ruoff Mortgage Co.”

“Many buyers were counting on their homes rising in value, Ruoff said. But property appreciation did not keep pace with their expectations.”

“When borrowers default on their loans, Bellio said, banks try to sell those homes quickly and often at a loss. That can drag down the sale prices of neighboring homes, which must compete to attract a buyer, he said.”

“That can help buyers who want to buy larger, more expensive houses, Bellio said. Even if they lose money selling their current home, buyers can make up for it when they buy their new house at a bargain price. Interest rates below 6 percent make purchases even more attractive, Bellio said.”

“‘It is absolutely a perfect, perfect storm for buying up,’ he said.”

The Enquirer from Ohio. “Kenwood developer Robert C. Rhein Interests Inc. said Friday it is dropping plans for one of the largest single-family housing developments in Liberty Township along LeSourdsville-West Chester Road.”

“And in another sign of the new housing slowdown, Atlanta-based builder Beazer Homes said Friday it will exit the Cincinnati-Dayton market and four other cities in the face of the weak new home market.”

“Rhein planned up to 269 single-family homes starting above $300,000 on the 140-acre site. The project, to be named Glenview Ridge, also called for up to 48 condominium units.”

“Alex Tarasenko, Rhein’s senior VP, said there’s too much new housing on the market in Liberty Township, one of the area’s hottest building markets. It’s not an unusual situation, he said, for strong markets to be caught with too much inventory when things slow down.”

“He said Rhein’s other developments in Mason and Deerfield Township are doing well and it is pursing new projects. ‘We see signs things are improving, but we want to be prudent,’ he said.”

“For example, he said, Rhein is developing an 85-acre site near Keehner Park in West Chester Township for up to 120 single-family homes starting around $500,000.”