February 6, 2008

People Are Still Being Unrealistic

The Courier News from New Jersey. “When Barbara Taylor, a Realtor in Bridgewater, inherited two homes from her brother a couple years ago, she thought the one in Bridgewater would sell as fast as the one in Lavallette. She put them both on the market last year, hoping to get out of the landlord business. What happened was not what she expected.”

“Her listing Realtor in Lavallette suggested a price of $675,000. Nothing happened all spring, so Taylor rented the place during the summer. She got one offer of $500,000, which she turned down. Then she took a closer look at the market. She realized that… comparable homes in her neighborhood were more in line with the $500,000 offer. So in August, she dropped the asking price to $499,900 and immediately got two offers. The house was sold by September.”

“The Bridgewater house still hasn’t sold, even though Taylor has installed a new kitchen and made many other improvements. ‘I think the values at the Shore are holding better than they are in Bridgewater,’ she said.”

“Tino Columbo, manager of Diane Turton’s Point Pleasant Beach office, said that in Ocean County, which includes the Point Pleasant and Long Beach Island areas, there were 5,747 homes sold in 2005, 4,479 sold in 2006 and 3,893 sold in 2007.”

“In 2005, the average seller got 96.57 percent of his asking price. In 2006, sellers averaged 95.68 percent of their asking price, and in 2007, they averaged 94.7 percent of the asking price. The question that Columbo’s figures can’t answer is how much have asking prices dropped. ‘The value is still in the land,’ he said. ‘If a home is priced right, it’ll sell, but if the seller is unrealistic, it won’t sell.’”

“‘I think we’ve seen the worst,’ said Dan McDonald, proprietor of Central State Appraiser Service in Lake Como. ‘I think we’ve come close to the bottom, but I don’t see a substantial turnaround until 2013 or 2014. The value of homes overshot what it should’ve been because of creative financing.’”

“‘The bottom of the market will suffer,’ McDonald said. ‘If McMansions and higher-priced homes sell at discounts, then the smallest, least-expensive homes will have fewer buyers…The values decline most in communities where there is still a lot of land to develop.’”

“‘Prices are lower than they were at the peak a few years ago, and interest rates are below 6 percent,’ said Mary Burke is the broker of record for Heritage House Southeby’s International Realty, a company with five offices in upscale Monmouth County communities. ‘We’ve seen the market start to pick up. I think that at the end of 2008, people who didn’t buy now will look back and wish they did.’”

From Financial Week on New York. “A foreclosure sale on tony Further Lane in East Hampton, N.Y.? A year ago, such an event would have been practically unthinkable. Yet a Further Lane property was in the early stages of foreclosure last month.”

“John Brady, an agent in the East Hampton area who handles the sale of foreclosure properties for banks on eastern Long Island, confirmed that a $15 million Further Lane home was in pre-foreclosure status due to delinquent payments. The owner apparently brought his account current about two weeks ago, avoiding any further legal action.”

“Mr. Brady said a year ago, the possibility of a foreclosure wouldn’t have arisen. Now, the Hamptons, the summer hangout for Manhattan’s rich and famous, is seeing its fair share of troubled real estate.”

“There are about 40 homes in various stages of foreclosure in East Hampton and another 40 in Southampton, he said. ‘A year ago, you just didn’t see that.’ The houses involved include a $4 million property, although most are more modest homes, he said.”

“Mr. Brady said some buyers put little money down on their purchases, believing that the properties would not only serve as vacation getaways, but as rapidly appreciating investments and tax write-offs.”

“Mr. Brady noted that 1,030 homes in East Hampton are currently listed for sale. That’s up about 40% in the past year alone. ‘People are still being unrealistic’ about resale values, he said. ‘I say if you want to sell right now, take the last sold [nearby property] and knock off 5% or 10% to beat the curve in a declining market.’”

“In East Hampton, the last property sold on Further Lane, a beachfront estate on two acres, went for $25.7 million on Nov. 9, according to a published registry of deeds record. The prospect of a foreclosure just down the lane must have had the new owners in a Gatsby-esque tizzy.”

The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. “The City of Boston conducted a lottery last summer for 18 homes in Dorchester, expecting a huge demand. Only 10 homes sold. The city and local nonprofits are now spending money marketing the rest.”

“In Lowell, three units in a subsidized condominium project sat unsold for almost a year before a community development agency decided to convert them to short-term rental housing for needy families.”

“A Worcester nonprofit slashed prices this summer on six condos, then hired a local real estate firm to help sell the units, which have now been on the market al most 20 months.”

“‘In the city of Worcester, affordable housing is no longer a bargain,’ said Marti Orne of Achieva Realty. ‘People say, ‘Look, I can buy something without deed restrictions.’”

“‘For years the for-sale market was so strong and so tight that as long as you developed a unit that was affordable, it would just sell,’ said Tina Brooks, undersecretary of housing for Governor Deval Patrick.”

“During the boom, housing lotteries sometimes drew 100 applications for each available unit. Now, a growing number are sold to the first interested buyer, according to industry participants.”

“Housing advocates say people are scared by the spike in foreclosures. ‘People are not willing to pull the trigger,’ said Tom Callahan of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance. ‘There’s more nervousness about, ‘Is this going to go bad for me like it did for the person down the block?’”

“Falling prices may be the largest factor. Worcester Community Housing Resources Inc. listed nine condominiums for sale in May 2006. Three sold before the market declined in earnest. This summer, the nonprofit slashed prices by up to 20 percent on the remaining units. A two-bedroom can be had for $114,900.”

“‘In 2003, if you wanted to buy a condo’ in that price range, ‘there were only about 18 on the market in Worcester, at any given time,’ said Adam Pasquale, who owns Achieva Realty. ‘Today there’s 90 on the market.’”

“The firm has shown the units to almost 70 buyers. One signed a contract.”

The Enterprise from Massachusetts. “When the new condo lofts on Court Street in Brockton went on sale a year ago, a two-bedroom-two-bath unit was priced at $214,000. Now the price is as low as $165,000.”

“‘We’ve had to respond to the market,’ said Ellen S. Goldberg, a spokeswoman for Cathartes Private Investments, which helped develop the Court Street development, known as SoCo146.”

“Other developments and projects in the downtown Brockton area face similar situations. Realtor Bernie Hassan said a saturated market and falling prices have created a buyer’s market almost unlike any seen before. ‘The selection is tremendous,’ he said.”

“The Warren Group reported that single-family home sales in Plymouth County have dropped by 30 percent over the last year, with prices falling by 17 percent.”

The Eagle Tribune from Massachusetts. “There are at least 90 homes in trouble in the city — empty buildings that have either been seized by banks or are in the process of being seized through foreclosure proceedings, Mayor James Fiorentini said.”

“It’s a relatively low number compared to neighboring cities such as Lawrence, the mayor said, but he and other Haverhill officials are worried abandoned buildings are becoming more common in Haverhill as a result of the real estate slump and national mortgage crisis it has spawned.”

“‘I don’t think it’s quite a crisis here yet, but we want to address it now before it becomes one,’ Fiorentini said. ‘Just one abandoned building can ruin a neighborhood.’”

“Several inner-city streets in Haverhill have more than one abandoned building. A tour last week of Nichols Street in the Acre neighborhood, for instance, revealed six multi-unit, empty homes on a short stretch in various stages of dilapidation.”

“Signs on three of the homes said they were bank owned and that electricity and water had been shut off.”

“The city becomes aware of vacant buildings primarily as inspectors and fire officials come across them as they travel around the city, Building Inspector Richard Osborne said. ‘The biggest problem is when we can’t find the mortgage holder,’ Fiorentini said. ‘We need someone to cite and someone to go after.’”

The Littleton Independent from Massachusetts. “It’s the first time that realtor Kathy Knox can remember the town having such a low inventory of homes for sale. Knox said there are currently just 38 houses for sale in Littleton.”

“‘For the last year and a half, it’s been a much more volatile market,’ she said. ‘Homes are selling, but only if they are ‘aggressively priced,’ or lower than the seller’s expectations, and in good shape.”

“She said the inventory is so low because sellers ‘got discouraged’ when their homes didn’t sell at the asking price, and took the property off the market. She said sellers might have had ‘unrealistic’ prices in mind.”

“Knox said the real estate market is going through a periodic ‘adjustment,’ or correction that hasn’t happened for 20 years or more. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, she said, home prices kept going up, and a correction was due.”

“Knox said homes are now adjusting downward for the first time in two decades, and buyers that bought at the peak a couple of years ago, may not be able to keep up the payments. ‘I just sold a home that was assessed higher than I sold it for,’ said Knox.”

“She said sellers ‘do not want to come to the closing with $30,000 in their pocket,’ and sometimes arrive with the keys to hand back to the bank.”

“Cheryl Cowley’s mother started the family realty business, Cowley’s, on Great Road in the 1960s. Cheryl said now is the time to buy. ‘Mortgage companies are pretty comfortable with Littleton,’ she said, citing only six foreclosures in 2007. ‘I’m seeing some of the best deals in the last 10 years, and I think for 10 years to come. I think we’ve bottomed out.’”

“Cowley said she has seen ’some cute little houses for under $200,000.’ ‘It hasn’t been so low in as long as I can remember,’ she said.”

“She blames the media, in part, for the drop in prices. ‘With the papers shouting about falling prices, people are thinking they better wait, and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy,’ said Cowley.”

“‘People have to be realistic,’ said Knox. ‘For years we saw people double their money in their homes. Now that is not happening.’”

“She said the only people that are getting hurt by the current market are those that bought a home in the last couple of years, and are forced to sell and move for some reason. Those families will not sell their homes for what they paid, in many cases.”

“‘They are stuck,’ said Knox. ‘We can’t sell it for what they paid just two years ago.’”




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107 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-06 07:58:55

‘Knox said the real estate market is going through a periodic ‘adjustment,’ or correction that hasn’t happened for 20 years or more. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, she said, home prices kept going up, and a correction was due.’

Some of my favorite quotes come out of these little Massachusetts papers. They are apparently not aware of the larger market and have this ‘gee whizz, look at that’ approach. BTW, sometimes I can’t tell when they are talking about MA, or New Hampshire, etc. They mix them up and expect the reader to know what is what.

Comment by AUA
2008-02-06 08:41:47

““Cheryl Cowley’s mother started the family realty business, Cowley’s, on Great Road in the 1960s. Cheryl said now is the time to buy. ‘Mortgage companies are pretty comfortable with Littleton,’ she said, citing only six foreclosures in 2007. ‘I’m seeing some of the best deals in the last 10 years, and I think for 10 years to come. I think we’ve bottomed out.’”

“Cowley said she has seen ’some cute little houses for under $200,000.’ ‘It hasn’t been so low in as long as I can remember,’ she said.””

She must have a pretty short memory if she’s been doing this since the ’60s and doesn’t remember houses costing under $200K.

Comment by hd74man
2008-02-06 11:54:22

RE: Littleton, MA

Podunk town in central Mazz with no job infrastructure.

Seller’s are just the unmotivated elderly lookin’ to score big so as to fund a retirement in a lower cost southern state.

Hell-Beantown Globe just ran a segment last week which said all the larger economic base towns along east/west Rt. 2 where dying due to the lack of decent paying jobs.

Nobody but those on this blog have any crediblity anymore.

Comment by not a gator
2008-02-06 19:56:51

Rt 2?

Hasn’t that area been dying for at least a century now?

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Comment by Bad Chile
2008-02-06 09:20:42

I’d also observe that that the “correction” of real estate prices of the early 1990’s was less than 20 years ago. But that is just a minor detail…

Comment by Kim
2008-02-06 09:53:46

“I’d also observe that that the “correction” of real estate prices of the early 1990’s was less than 20 years ago. But that is just a minor detail…”

That’s for sure. My fathers company took about a $100K hit on their 2-year-old Massachusetts house back in the early 90’s (they relocated him). But, hey, real estate only goes up!

 
 
Comment by Tim
2008-02-06 09:45:54

She also noted that “the only people that are getting hurt by the current market are those that bought a home in the last couple of years.” I guess she never heard of HELOCs. I hate it when realtors give opinions as if they were experts on the subject of real estate.

Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-02-06 12:24:41

You are overlooking those of us who didn’t buy. We got hurt by the run-up in prices.

It is like suggesting that stealing from a grocery store somehow creates free money… and ultimately doesn’t raise the price for everyone who shops there.

Comment by Tim
2008-02-06 12:34:23

According to realtors, renters are bitter, angry ppl that like to throw their money away. Are they even human?

*renter since 2004

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Comment by DC in LBV
2008-02-06 18:34:07

Too bad most people bought in the past couple years. The rapidly rising prices were related to a massive increase in sales.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-02-06 10:15:08

I think we’ve come close to the bottom, but I don’t see a substantial turnaround until 2013 or 2014.

I find this quote very interesting. Were close to the bottom, but a substantial turnaround is 5-6 years away. How the heck can you be close to a bottom, yet have a substantial turnaround still 5-6 years away?

Comment by Tim
2008-02-06 10:39:53

Im guessing she is assuming prices will be flat or with less than normal appreciation until 2013 or 2014, as opposed to a sharp drop in the next two years and then back to normal appreciation rates. Thus, she thinks prices wont drop much, but wont rise much either for the next 5 years. The recession and lack of wage inflation makes this assumption questionable.

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-02-06 10:53:08

No wage inflation and run away inflation in needs (food, energy) + lost jobs = housing prices have LONG way to go down, down, down…

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 17:35:51

I’m waiting for most people to figure this out.

People gotta eat, and the lard-tubs gotta eat a lot!!!

 
 
 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 15:25:57

“We are approaching the bottom, but expect neutral appreciation for 5-6 years after that.”

 
 
Comment by sagesse
2008-02-06 10:26:26

About Littleton, MA; from the ReMax Website:

“Littleton, Massachusetts is a rural industrial town on the outer edge of suburban Boston. Part of the town was allocated as an Indian preserve known as the Nashoba Indian Praying Town. Littleton eventually developed an upland farming economy with grazing, orchards and some seasonal lumbering.

By the 19th century some of the finest apple orchards in the state were supplying town cider mills, which in turn shipped their product to Boston. Littleton’s cider factory, which also began making vinegar, expanded to become the modern Very Fine Apple Products plant.

In the 20th century, clay deposits near the railroad depot became the basis for the U.S. Brick and Tile Company. Littleton remains a significantly agricultural community with poultry farms, dairies and orchards.”

(A not so thickly settled town, it appears).

 
Comment by Boston Mark
2008-02-06 11:07:56

My parents bought a condo in the Boston area as a second home in 1989 (new construction) and sold it in 1993 for 36% less than they paid for it. I’m sure they remember the last downturn in real estate!

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-06 07:59:54

“Mr. Brady noted that 1,030 homes in East Hampton are currently listed for sale. That’s up about 40% in the past year alone. ‘People are still being unrealistic’ about resale values, he said. ‘I say if you want to sell right now, take the last sold [nearby property] and knock off 5% or 10% to beat the curve in a declining market.’”

ROTFLMAO! East Hampton! Where the cream of Wall Street goes to summer. Property in the in the Hamptons NEVER goes down (not).

Comment by spike66
2008-02-06 08:23:57

I like the folks who spent 25.7 million in November. WTF were they thinking? Unless it was Arab oil money, which should add so much to the chic atmosphere of the Hamptons.

Comment by reuven
2008-02-06 09:18:57

I really didn’t know that you could finance houses at that price level. I assumed they were cash deals, or short-term bridge loans.

 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2008-02-06 09:25:05

Don’t you think that some people have so much money that even $25M would be like buying an expensive car to the average consumer? I know it’s going to depreciate as soon as I drive it off the lot, but I really like it!

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 08:03:43

“‘Prices are lower than they were at the peak a few years ago, and interest rates are below 6 percent,’ said Mary Burke is the broker of record for Heritage House Southeby’s International Realty, a company with five offices in upscale Monmouth County communities. ‘We’ve seen the market start to pick up. I think that at the end of 2008, people who didn’t buy now will look back and wish they did.’”
—————————————————————
Still trying to instill a sense of urgency huh morons? It’s not working anymore.

Here’s a topic suggestion. WTF will these RE mobsters do when they finally figure out that there is no more sense of urgency irrespective of the price? What BS routine will they use? Or will they never figure it out?

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-06 08:11:17

This has puzzled me as well. What I’ve noticed is that the REIC does often capitulate, in the face of overwhelming news and having been proved completely wrong. BUT, then they pop up a month later with a new sales line. These periodic cave-ins are apparently nothing more than drawing a new line in the sand.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 08:13:13

There’s more than a few REIC marshalls that remind me of Biff & Co., in “Death Of A Salesman”.

 
Comment by Incredulous
2008-02-06 08:18:33

The sense of urgency is their own, because they’re getting hungry. They’re just projecting.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 08:19:52

Well if the quoted imbecile can get enough suckers to buy into her fear, her income is guaranteed for one more year then it’s back to the drawingboard next winter/spring. But what most people miss is the fact that these scum bags use fear to compel folks who don’t know any better. And the use of that slimey little ruse isn’t limited to the RE mobsters. Oil, taxes, healthcare, turrrrrrists, collapsing currencies and gold are some of the favorite boogeyment used by the big money crime syndicate.

 
Comment by JP
2008-02-06 08:50:37

I am puzzled by the current strategy of the REIC. Eventually, somebody is going to figure out that that playing to the buyers will win them more commissions than playing to the sellers.

Just reverse the lines above to see what I mean: “We’ve seen the market really slow down. I think that at the end of 2008, people who didn’t drop their price now will look back and wish they did.”

Now, wouldn’t that be more likely to cause sales (and commissions) to pick up? I plan on charging a sales consultancy fee.

Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 08:57:37

That language would like a fire under sale for sure but there is a fundamental reason they can’t and won’t do it; the RE mob drank the very koolade they served to others much like a drug dealer using his own junk. Hot air pricing is the only thing between the RE mob and bankruptcy.

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Comment by Groundhogday
2008-02-06 11:36:27

I think you hit the nail on the head. I can’t even count how many Realtor-owned homes we’ve toured, and Pullman, WA is a small, out of the way “no bubble here” market. (note the quotes)

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 15:30:57

I disagree. As noted above, realtors are hungry. Even though they drank the koolaid, a lot of them are starting to get religion because they need the commish.

 
 
Comment by phillygal
2008-02-06 11:25:47

I am puzzled by the current strategy of the REIC. Eventually, somebody is going to figure out that that playing to the buyers will win them more commissions than playing to the sellers.

You’re giving the RE hucksters way too much credit. They’re just like wind-up dolls that keep repeating the same spiel.
I think you’re under the impression they have the ability to think critically

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Comment by Butch
2008-02-06 08:05:15

Good luck paying taxes on that $500,000 McPig in NJ.

What a joke.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 17:39:06

Piggy, piggy, piggy; oink, oink, oink. :-)

I always wanted to say that on a blog.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 08:07:22

Looks as if the McSh*t has hit the fan…

“‘The bottom of the market will suffer,’ McDonald said. ‘If McMansions and higher-priced homes sell at discounts, then the smallest, least-expensive homes will have fewer buyers…The values decline most in communities where there is still a lot of land to develop.’”

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 11:37:10

Ah hah, an admission that there is still plenty of land out there.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-02-06 12:35:10

Mr. McDonald assumes no future inflation in or concern for heating costs.

Here’s a 6000 sq footer I could pick up for $194k. It appears to be in decent shape w/a nice carriage house to boot but the heating costs would do me in.

http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/more_photos.cgi?mlnum=186298

Halloween party anyone?

Comment by NeilT
2008-02-06 14:22:17

This house could be used for shooting a horror movie.

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 15:37:06

That place gives me the shivers.

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 08:09:08

“She blames the media, in part, for the drop in prices. ‘With the papers shouting about falling prices, people are thinking they better wait, and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy,’ said Cowley.”

Yup yer right Mrs. Cowley. It’s that damn librull meediuh controlling millions of people.

 
Comment by Willyboy
2008-02-06 08:10:54

“Prices are lower than they were at the peak a few years ago, and interest rates are below 6 percent,” she said. “We’ve seen the market start to pick up. I think that at the end of 2008, people who didn’t buy now will look back and wish they did.”

Is there any place in the United States that this statement will likely be true? If so, where? And why?

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-02-06 11:59:51

Well, the first part of her statement is true. The second part is lies.

 
 
Comment by mgnyc99
2008-02-06 08:31:37

just a few observations about the ny real estate situation

many people are still in denial and they feel they are in the good areas which will not see declines

the wife and i looked at some stuff over the weekend and came to the realization that we have a really nice apt and a fair rent so we are staying put. prices are still really high, they have not gone up but have not come down much except in the areas we deem undesirable for us

my lease is up in may and with us planning on signing another year
i have at least another 15 months to save and wait this out

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 12:01:56

Don’t you guys have rent control in NY? If so, that alone is enough to crash the housing market. If people don’t expect appreciation in house prices OR rents, then there is no reason at all to buy an overpriced house. In areas like mine (Silicon Valley), where we don’t have rent control, some people will incorreclty conclude that a rent increase is sufficient reason to purchase something.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 15:26:19

No rent control above $2K/month.

 
 
 
Comment by Shizo
2008-02-06 08:44:18

“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”
Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815

 
Comment by Rhea
2008-02-06 09:02:49

She said sellers might have had ‘unrealistic’ prices in mind.”

Yes, and they have for 10 years.

 
Comment by Kurt
2008-02-06 09:09:57

Again, realtors will say anything to sell a house. That is how they make a living. Accept it and move on.

Comment by EggMan
2008-02-06 10:26:54

It’s not just how they make a living, it’s what they’re supposed to do. If you were selling a house, and retained the services of a used house salesperson, wouldn’t you want them to do what ever they could, ethically, to sell your house? You certainly wouldn’t want them out on the front stoop yelling “now is a bad time to buy a house! go away!”

That said, all the quotes here are from Real Estate people who obviously have no clue, or won’t reveal that they do.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-06 12:03:34

Now, note that little word ‘ethically’, that you used. It doesn’t seem to often exist in the same sentence as ‘realtor’.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 17:41:03

Ethical Realtor. Jumbo Shrimp. Tight Slacks. Tax Return!

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Comment by CharlesM
2008-02-06 12:29:05

My problem isn’t so much with the robo-realtors; pull the string and watch ‘em parrot their idiotic talking points.

The problem lies more with reporters who brainlessly copy and paste these talking points as if it’s all legitimate, objective market analysis rather than the sort of sales hucksterism that would make P.T. Barnum proud.

“Mr. Used Car Salesman, do you think now is a great time to buy a used car? You do?! Gee, thanks for the expert advice. I’ll put that in my story.”

Fortunately the media is waking up a little bit and we see fewer quotes from groups like the National Association of Realtors, or those same quotes getting less attention. Still, the shills get far more respect and column space than they should, and far too little skepticism, like in the stories Ben linked to here.

 
 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-02-06 09:16:19

. ‘People say, ‘Look, I can buy something without deed restrictions.’”

Excellent! As the owner of two non-deed-restricted properties (both for my personal use, 100% paid off, and bought pre-bubble), I was hoping that, eventually, people would see the extra value of having a home that’s NOT controlled by a CC&R, deed restrictions and an HOA.

It’s going to become more of an issue if/when solar electric gets more cost effective. I was able to get panels on my roof w/o having to get permission of an “Architctural Review Board”, or be blocked entirely. And every now and then, I’m working on a painting project in the Garage, so I want to park my car in the driveway. I’m glad I don’t get fined for that, etc.

Comment by climber
2008-02-06 09:56:53

It’s amazing how hard it is to convince these suckers that the more you can do with your property the more valuable it is. I have 1/2 acre and the morons in my HOA think the property is more valuable if I can’t have horses on it.

When I look at a neighborhood the first think I notice is if people have storage sheds and RVs/ boats. If I don’t see either I know the HOA is full of it and move on.

Trying to live amongst pretentious greedy snobs is expensive and not all that much fun. I prefer to avoid it.

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-02-06 10:34:40

No… they think that THEIRS is more valuable if you can’t have horses on yours.

Your property is worth more, the more you can do with it. it is worth less the more the neighbors can do with theirs. HOA is not about limiting what you do with your property. It is about limiting what your neighbors do with theirs.

No thanks. I don’t want my neighbrs telling me what a can and can’t do with my property.

Comment by Robert Swirsky
2008-02-06 10:41:37

One thing that really angered me was, when Jeb Bush was gov’ner of Florida, he pushed through two laws making it illegal for

1. CC&Rs / HOAs to restrict the flying of an American Flag
2. CC&Rs / HOAs to prevent solar panels

Why did this anger me? Because if someone HATES AMERICA enough to buy a home in a place where you can’t fly the American Flag, he should have to live with his choice. I purposely chose to buy property outside of an deed-restricted community (*very* difficult to do in Florida for new construction) because I perceived it have having extra value because of fewer restrictions.

By weakening these restrictions, Jeb Bush lowered the relative attractiveness of my property! :-)

Of course, I’m picking nits here because the real advantage is I don’t have to pay 100s of $$$/month to a board of WACKO NAZIS.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-02-06 11:45:44

“No thanks. I don’t want my neighbrs telling me what a can and can’t do with my property.”

So you’d be cool if I bought the 10 acre parcel next door and started a chicken farm? Glad to hear it.

 
Comment by AdamCO
2008-02-06 11:57:42

i know you aren’t talking about zoning, but it started as the same concept: prevent incompatible uses from being adjacent. keeping pig farms out of residential areas keeps rez property values stable and higher than they would be if there was a pig farm next door.

so, while i agree that less restricted property might be what some are looking for, chances are it is not more valuable.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-02-06 11:58:36

So you’d be cool if I bought the 10 acre parcel next door and started a chicken farm?

Doesn’t matter if he would “be cool” with it, since it’s yours, right? I mean, if he wanted to prevent a chicken farm, he should have bought the 10 acres himself.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-02-06 12:05:06

Horses on half an acre? I can’t blame the neighbors. Phew! I can smell the manure now! I’m no fan of HOA’s, but the rules and deed covenants they enforce are there for a purpose: To bring together like-minded people who will live with a given set of restrictions on what they and their neighbors can do.

I grew up in a place with no zoning and no HOA’s. That’s right NO zoning. Period. If the neighbor wanted to put up a concrete-mixing facility next to your house, that’s cool! If you want to put up a nightclub, that’s cool, too. Actually, it made for very interesting neighborhoods in some spots, but not necessarily the kind of places I’d want to live.

 
Comment by yogurt
2008-02-06 12:07:54

If the property is zoned for it, go right ahead. He’s not against zoning by a constituted local government subject to the rule of law. He’s just opposed to neighborhood Nazis telling him what to do.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-02-06 12:30:37

But that’s the thing, the HOA rules (and/or deed covenants) are simply an extension of zoning on a smaller, mutually-agreed scale. It might even be agrued that they are fairer than zoning because it can be harder to fiddle the rules!

And those rules are something that (unless you are a fool) you know about before you buy the property. They might seem arbitrary, but almost every problematic case my friends have had with them, the rules were right there in black and white beforehand.

And as is always said, if you don’t like ‘em, do what many people do and live in a non-HOA area on a property with no deed covenants.

 
Comment by not a gator
2008-02-06 20:06:54

Fairer? As if. Our Constitution limits what the government can do when the zoning board gets cracking; HOA’s, however, as a private entity have considerably more leeway.

There’s a reason HOA board members are known as Nazis–and the reason is that they have too much power (although at least in this case, the power is to fine or foreclose, not to send you to KaZet).

I want real, aboveboard, accountable gov’t, NOT a private, unaccountable shadow government.

 
 
 
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-02-06 11:13:08

Whiskey tango foxtrot. You can’t park your car outside? I like to think around here we haven’t gone that far. As far as I know, even in the nicest neighborhoods you can still park your car outside.

In my case, I don’t even like being in town. I hope to be out of town in the next year or so…if I want to asplode something, I intend to be somewhere I can do exactly that.

Comment by bicoastal
2008-02-06 11:27:53

In Belmont, MA (where my sister–and Mitt Romney!–live) you cannot park your car on the street overnight. You must have off-street parking.

Comment by gather no moss
2008-02-06 12:08:32

Nashua, NH too. You also must have your garbage in a garbage can - no plastic bags at the curb.

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Comment by Bostonian
2008-02-06 16:02:13

Comment by gather no moss
2008-02-06 12:08:32
Nashua, NH too. You also must have your garbage in a garbage can - no plastic bags at the curb.

The no plastic bag rule is less about the aesthetic, and more about not having local vermin ripping the bag to shreds and spreading it about the neighborhood. Have you seen how big a garbage fed raccoon gets?

 
Comment by not a gator
2008-02-06 20:11:12

Dang, we used to close the garbage barrels with bungee cords, and those damn raccoons STILL broke into them and spread garbage everywhere!

good times…NOT (I can still smell it 15 years later)

I dunno … you makes your peace with him who taketh the trash away. Dunno why this would be a big issue. Also, don’t they allow bags (actually special bags) for yard wastes?

Oy, you don’t like the garbage cans, you go rent an apartment and use the Dumpster.

 
 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2008-02-06 12:04:00

That’s actually a fairly “normal” restriction in higher end communties in FL. I have been in one where even your GUESTS are not allowed to park outside. Your guests have to park at the clubhouse, where there are waiting cars to take them up to the home where they want to visit.

Totally amazing.. It does make an area look nice, but what a PITA.

Comment by Incredulous
2008-02-06 12:21:58

Come to Hyde Park in Tampa, where everyone parks on the narrow streets, and two cars moving in opposite directions cannot pass one another; they have to take turns like Chess moves, edging in between parked cars and then advancing inch by inch. If a truck is trying to get down the street, or a UPS delivery van is stopped, you can be stuck for a very long time. This is one of the most expensive neighborhoods in town, but the city refuses to do anything about the problem. Most of the neighborhoods are zoned for single family residences only, but many of the house owners have guest houses or garage apartments they rent out, in complete violation of the law, adding heavily to the mess. And, naturally, every family of two or three has to have three or four vehicles. You would think for 500k or more a square foot, one could at least drive up or a down a street in a straight line.

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Comment by not a gator
2008-02-06 20:13:24

boo hoo hoo, this sounds like every urban area ever

 
 
 
 
Comment by bicoastal
2008-02-06 11:24:52

Good for you! My best friend in Santa Barbara tried to put up a clothesline in her own backyard and her HOA made her take it down. Stopping people from saving energy is madness.

‘I was able to get panels on my roof w/o having to get permission of an “Architctural Review Board”, or be blocked entirely.’

 
Comment by Dynastar
2008-02-06 13:08:28

I have never understood why folks live with HOAs. I’ve never lived in an area that had one and never missed it. Does my life really become that much worse if my neighbor two houses down paints the place light blue? We just shake our heads and keep on doing our thing. I’ll take a bit of freedom any day.

 
 
Comment by Ron
2008-02-06 09:36:52

We’ve seen the market start to pick up. I think that at the end of 2008, people who didn’t buy now will look back and wish they did.’”

The mantra for the spring selling season, probably for the 2009 season and the 2010 season! just change the date, the pitch will be the same.

Comment by climber
2008-02-06 10:09:57

Like they say, all real estate is local. I bought in December of 2000, and still wish I hadn’t. We paid too much and got a house that hasn’t worked out well for our growing family. Now, we are going to make one of the most expensive transactions the average family will ever make - selling our house. Realtors make divorce attorneys look cheap.

 
Comment by Robert Swirsky
2008-02-06 10:58:34

Historically, from 1890 ’til today, R-E in the United States has appreciated about .4% over inflation.

So unless you’re caught in a strange “bubble period” (which are easy to spot, even when you’re in them), very few people EVER look back and wish they bought sooner instead of later.

I’m not disappointed with the house I bought in sunnyvale 17 years ago, that’s now been paid off. But I think things would have been find had I not bought the house. Who knows? I may have taken up opportunities to live overseas, etc.

Comment by Rally
2008-02-06 11:27:20

“very few people EVER look back and wish they bought sooner instead of later.”

I don’t get that. Your house only appreciates slightly more than inflation, but as long as you don’t heloc or something, your mortgage, in real terms, goes down every year. Even without the bubble, I would have been better off buying in 1999 than I am today.

Now those idiots who say “there’s never been a better time to buy” - they don’t know what they’re talking about. Even in 2002, with the bubble just getting started, you would have been better off jumping in and outbidding a specuvestor by 20% than you are trying to buy at 2008 prices. My guess is 2012 prices will be the best you’ll be able to get.

Case in point, some condos near where I used to live - worth 80K in 1999, insane jump to 125K in 2002. You would have been better off buying then at a stupid premium -145K - than trying to buy now. After topping out in the 235 range some are selling near 200K now. Can’t wait to see how far it falls.

Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 11:33:51

“I would have been better off buying in 1999 than I am today.”

And you would have been better off buying today than in 2007…. and 2006, and 2005, and 2004. And you be better off buying in 2009, and even better in 2010, more so in 2011 than today.

Whats the problem?

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Comment by esteban
2008-02-06 10:07:44

“Cowley said she has seen ’some cute little houses for under $200,000.’ ‘It hasn’t been so low in as long as I can remember,’ she said.”

More like cute little teardowns. Homes in Littleton can easily top $400,000 and some push a million.

 
Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 10:34:04

I had an interesting debate the other day with a colleague and wanted to bounce it off my brethren here. One of the reasons we won’t get a Volcker type to raise rates to 10-15% is because the US is essentially broke and CAN’T. AFFORD. IT. Treasury notes pay what, 2-5% right now depending on maturity? The numbers I’ve seen show net interest on the federal debt running between 9-12% of the federal budget. Given $400B annual defecits, given a $9T national debt, if the US suddenly had to pay 10%, 15% on its debt to finance its lifestyle, that % of the national debt required to pay the interest would very quickly rival the 20% or so we pay for SS, Medicare, defense, etc… and the gov’t can’t have that. Anyone have any idea what the % of the budget interest consumed in 1980 compared to 1990? I’ve read that it dropped from about 15% in the 90’s to the 9% or so it is today, which would make sense given the lowering of rates since then.

Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 10:38:12

“…that % of the national debt budget required to pay the interest…”

Comment by wacko
2008-02-06 11:10:57

Test to end strike-through.

 
 
Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 10:41:04

“…that % of the national debt budget required to pay the interest…”

patience grasshoppers, I am learning

Comment by wacko
2008-02-06 11:13:01

Second test.

Comment by bluprint
2008-02-06 11:16:44

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Comment by bluprint
2008-02-06 11:18:18

that did it.

 
 
 
Comment by wacko
2008-02-06 11:15:49

Will one more do it?

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-02-06 10:45:36

We don’t seem to care we have record debt why would we care what the interest rates are ? Higher rates would attract more buyers for our debt and make no mistake about it we must sell that debt.

Comment by yogurt
2008-02-06 12:17:19

You’ve got it backwards. It’s the buyers, i.e. the lenders, who determine the interest rates, not the sellers, i.e. the borrowers. Try going into your bank and telling them what rate to give you on a loan.

US interest rates will be whatever the Chinese think is good enough to keep them lending the US money.

 
 
Comment by warlock
2008-02-06 10:59:35

It’s complicated…

Typically smaller governments get pushed into having high interest rates because of currency problems, it’s not something they can actually control all that well. But there are plenty of smaller governments to choose from for somewhat risky investment, so they’re subject to much more in/outflow volatility. The USA does get some protection from that just by being the biggest kid on the block.

The current situation though is not your run of the mill foreign exchange of payments crisis, and the interest rate the Fed charges is starting to become irrelevant, next to somewhat larger concerns like actually getting your money back in a year or so. Supply and demand considerations apply to bonds just like everything else.

In addition, Americans don’t pay high taxes, so there’s plenty of room there for some increases. The end of life as we know it would not be triggered by a 1 or 2 cent increase in the basic tax rate, or reversing out the Bush “No millionaire left behind” cuts.

 
Comment by bluto
2008-02-06 11:01:45

We can afford it, but no one wants to take the medicine. About half the debt (and almost all of the growth) in the national debt arises because social security has been collecting more than it pays out for 25 years–since an increase in withholdings to build a trust fund was the solution proposed by the 1982 Blue Ribbon Commision on Social Security. That cash has to be invested somewhere, so it buys government bonds and rolls debt until about 2017 and beyond.

At that point there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth, because social security will begin to require on budget repayments of the debt it has collected over the last 30 years.

 
 
Comment by Lurker100
2008-02-06 10:37:56

We went with friends of ours to look at some apartments they were looking to purchase in Fort Lee, NJ. (rather their rich doctor parents were going to purchase for them)…. shitty condo apartments still insanely priced - $315K (Although down from 405K in 2005 according to realtor (to who i said you should compare to 1998 up not 2005 down to which he replied with regular realtor bs). Realtor still lied pretty shamelessly, today is a good time to buy and other bs, what made me really laugh is he said normally RE appreciates at 5% per year, haha. One thing did slip from his mouth - noone is buying, yet prices wont come down… riiight… Maybe by summer they will be more talkative… At least my friend agreed to some of the stuff i told him about the housing bubble and all….
Just an observation. Denial is still strong in NJ.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 11:48:36

Hi Lurker100:

I know these are your your friends, but maybe you should just let them lose all their money. This housing crash will be a great opportunity for wealth to be redistributed from those who have it but don’t deserve it to those who deserve it. Just a thought.

Comment by Lurker100
2008-02-06 12:02:38

I tried to educate him and his father who is a very highly paid doctor about the whole mess, and convince them that now is the best time to rent. Luckily, they both agreed after i provided facts about the bubble, the economy and all. This is a very good friend of mine, and i think the best any one of us can do is to educate people about this mess.

 
 
 
Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 10:44:52

crap

 
Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 10:48:25

Comment by 2banana
2008-02-06 11:09:16

end underline

test

Comment by 2banana
2008-02-06 11:11:06

end strike through words

test

 
 
 
Comment by stewie
2008-02-06 11:19:31

Thank you, friends.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 11:21:30

wtf

Comment by phillygal
2008-02-06 11:48:33

end wtf

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 11:45:16

Now don’t you guys feel guilty for saying all those bad things about Britney Spears?

Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-02-06 20:04:39

Jeezlouise, Big V, drop the Britney crap. This is a housing blog!!

 
 
Comment by hondje
2008-02-06 12:50:58

I found this article in today’s IHT.com to be pretty interesting when you consider how it fits with the those poor b8stards like Liareah, Yun and LAY:

“Researchers have shown in careful studies that people tend to be poor judges of their own performance and often to overrate their abilities. Their opinions about how well they’ve done on a test, or at a job, or in a class are often way off others’ evaluations. They’re confident that they can detect liars (they can’t) and forecast grades (not so well).

This native confidence is likely to be functional: in a world of profound uncertainty, self-serving delusion probably helps people to get out of bed and chase their pet projects.

But it can be poison when the job calls for expertise and accountability, and the expertise is wanting.”

http://iht.com/articles/2008/02/05/healthscience/05mind.php

Comment by Brian in New Orleans
2008-02-06 13:59:00

Wow. It takes “careful studies” to conclude what Upton Sinclair profoundly stated in 1939: “It’s hard to make a man understand something when his livelihood depends on him not understanding it.”

 
 
Comment by meadows
2008-02-08 14:21:14

“Having bought the house 8-½ years ago for $179,000, they figured it would sell within a month or two for the $395,000 asking price. It didn’t. And didn’t. In fact, the sale didn’t close until Friday, when the house fetched $333,000.”

“‘We were obligated to sell it,’ said Harlan, who’s staying temporarily in her husband’s new house in Marysville while she looks for a new home for herself and her three children. ‘Were we happy with the price we got? No.’”

I’m trying to do the math here…app. $154,000 increase in 8.5 years, that’s app. 18% increase per year… doesn’t sound too bad to me….

Unless expectations were pumped up to impossible levels by bubble-feeders.

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-02 11:45:49

——————————–
I ??!

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-02 11:47:55

I;;;;;;;;;;;??!;;;

 
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