February 6, 2008

The Question Is, ‘What Is A Recovery In California?’

The LA Daily News reports from California “Home sales in the San Fernando Valley plunged a record 35 percent last year to their lowest level in more than two decades as fewer buyers qualified for loans amid the ongoing mortgage meltdown, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors said. Annual home sales in 2007 fell to their lowest level since record-keeping began in 1985. December sales fell an annual 51.6 percent, to 390 transactions. Condominium sales fell 55.6 percent.”

“At the end of December, 5,671 properties were listed for sale in the Valley, a nearly 11-month supply.”

“In December, the median price dipped to $557,000, an annual loss of 12.4 percent, or $76,000. The median price topped out at $655,000 last June and has fallen 15 percent since then - back to levels last seen in the second quarter of 2005. It declined and finished below $600,000 each month of the year’s final quarter, the group said.”

“‘I don’t think the Valley will be as impacted as the rest of the state or nation,’ Jim Link, executive VP of the Realtors group, said of the foreclosure situation. ‘There will be an impact on prices but I don’t think they will tumble 20 (percent) or 30 percent.’”

“‘Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices and take a huge loss,’ Link said. ‘Banks want to recoup their investment, and that means they will list properties competitively at prices below comparable homes, but certainly not at fire-sale prices.’”

“Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said he expects activity this year to mirror that of 2007. ‘I don’t think we will see any signs of a recovery in the upcoming months,’ he said. ‘Then the question is what is a recovery. Unit sales will start to tick up and prices will start to tick up but it won’t be double-digit (percentage) increases.’”

The Signal. “Just under 2,000 single-family homes sold in the Santa Clarita Valley in 2007, making it the lowest annual total since at least 1998, according to a report released from the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.

“The annual median price of homes also fell for the first time on record, as well as the annual tally of sold condominiums in the valley. Three of the last four years have posted sales declines after six consecutive years of typically double-digit increases in sales, according to the association.”

“In the report, Doreen Chastain-Shine, 2008 president of the Association’s Santa Clarita Valley Division said, ‘I truly do not expect resale prices to go down all that much. Still, sellers don’t want to believe what’s happening, that the market has shifted in favor of buyers. Sellers are still not being realistic.’”

“At the end of December, there were 2,100 active listings throughout the Santa Clarita Valley, up 9.4 percent from a year ago, the association reports. At the current pace of sales, the inventory represents a 12.7-month supply, continuing the buyers’ market.”

“‘The mindset that real estate values never go down simply is not true,’ Link said. ‘Like any commodity, real estate has its peaks and valleys, but over time owning a home in California has always been a solid investment that continues to increase in value.’”

From The Sun. “You wouldn’t expect to see home developers using independent real-estate agents to sell new houses in a hot market. Besides: If the price is right, and interest rates low, why should they? Those days are long gone.”

“The new home market has taken such a beating that big-name builders are rewarding outside real-estate agents with Starbucks gift cards, wine bottles and even $10,000 checks to sell homes as fast as possible, and rewarding buyers with new cars and major discounts.”

“Take Janey Cole, for instance. The real estate agent with Redlands-based Century 21 Lois Lauer Realty won $10,000 on Monday from a drawing she was placed into by Beazer Homes because she recently sold a home in the builder’s Redlands Village project. She’s never seen an incentive like this one.”

“‘Any time the market gets like this, all the builders out there who never really offer us anything … start courting us a lot more,’ Cole said. ‘What that says to me is: ‘Here’s our inventory - get rid of it.’ They must be under some big gun because they’re spending money to do this.’”

“Toll Bros. - with new homes in Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino and Highland - is another case in point. Cole’s name was randomly drawn yet again, and she’s now looking forward to a free one-hour counseling session with a top-notch Toll Bros. selling representative. It’s worth $350.”

“‘They’re doing whatever they can to sell homes,’ she said.”

“Buyers are being targeted, too. Whoever purchases one of two houses in La Verne represented by Century 21 Masters of Glendora gets their choice of owning a new Toyota Prius or having $25,000 slashed off the sale price.”

“The house for sale on Fruit Street is going for about $599,000, and the one on Emerald Avenue for about $689,000.”

“‘In this market, with the massive amount of inventory available and what may be a tsunami of upcoming foreclosures, we have to cause that property to be a standout,’ said Mark Cofer, real-estate broker for the homes.”

“Building industry expert Frank Williams said dozens of builders with new housing tracts across the Inland Empire will keep offering these ‘creative’” incentives.”

“‘The builders are anxious to get rid of their inventory, and they want as many people out there selling homes as they can get their hands on,’ said Williams, the CEO of the Rancho Cucamonga-based Baldy View Chapter of the Building Industry Association of Southern California. ‘They need to get rid of inventory, so they’re pulling out all the stops.’”

The LA Times. “Shares of Standard Pacific Corp., the Irvine builder that has lost more than three-quarters of its value in the last year, rose after getting a waiver from lenders to avoid a default. Banks extended loan terms until March 30, Standard Pacific said in a regulatory filing Tuesday. The company said Monday that it cut debt and inventory in the fourth quarter and fiscal year.”

“The housing market remains challenging and it’s ‘hard to predict’ a recovery, Standard Pacific CEO Stephen Scarborough said. The company has been hampered because it gets most of its revenue from California, where existing home sales fell 33% in December.”

“‘In many of our markets we’ve seen considerable erosion of pricing, particularly in the California, Arizona and Florida markets,’ Scarborough said. ‘In many markets, we’ve gone back to 2004 pricing.’”

The Voice of San Diego. ” If you’re sick of paying your mortgage while your house loses value, just walk away. That abandon-ship advice, phrased a variety of ways, isn’t relegated to the societal fringes anymore.”

“People shouldn’t get into or out of housing contracts just to make or avoid losing money, said Gabe del Rio, director of a nonprofit consortium of homeownership and housing counseling groups.”

“‘Housing prices have always gone up and fallen and gone back up again — putting a timeline to it intelligently is impossible,’ del Rio said. ‘If you’re buying a home for an investment, that’s not the reason we recommend. It should be so that it’s your home. Whether or not it has equity in it, it’s actually pointless.’”

“The up-and-down equity watching was far from the mind of one University City homeowner, who bought a one-bedroom condo there in May 2004. He financed it 100 percent, planning to stay in the unit for at least two years before selling and maybe moving up.”

“But the market stopped ascending and his family grew and now the homeowner is weighing his options. He asked for his name to be withheld to avoid the stigma, and potential legal implications, while he contemplates foreclosure.”

“After buying the condo, he got married, and when his wife became pregnant a year ago, they knew the condo wouldn’t be enough space. At that point, the unit would’ve sold for about $30,000 to $40,000 less than he’d paid.”

“He decided to hang on to the unit and hope for a market turnaround. In the meantime, he moved out with his wife and baby, and they lease the condo to a tenant for about $1,000 a month less than they pay for the interest-only option on their monthly mortgage payment, while also paying their rent elsewhere.”

“Every once in a while, he checks online to see what comparable units are selling for. The value has dropped to about two-thirds of what he paid now, he estimated.”

“‘This is so much beyond my worst expectations,’ he said. ‘I don’t see it coming back anytime soon. Is it going to take five years, 10 years, just to get back to where it was then?’”

“He joins a growing group of people facing the leave-or-stay quandary. ‘I want to honor what I signed,’ he said. ‘But I have to make a business decision that I have to make for my family.’”

From CNN Money. “‘I stopped paying my mortgage in October, after shelling out about $70,000 in interest [over 15 months],’ said one borrower, David, who doesn’t want his last name used. ‘Now, I’m just waiting for the default notice.’”

“The Los Angeles-based writer bought two properties in Hancock Park, west of downtown, using no-down, interest-only mortgages in 2006. He paid just over $1 million for both.”

“David had planned to sell them quickly but got caught in the slump. Soon his interest rate will jump by a few points, and his payments will go up by several hundred dollars a month for each place. He figures his properties have fallen in value by at least $60,000 each.”

“And now skipping out on a home is easier, thanks to the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007. Previously, if a bank sold a foreclosed home for less than the mortgage balance and it forgave the difference, the borrower had to pay tax on that difference as if it were income. Now the IRS will ignore it.”

“‘That’s going to help a lot of people,’ said Mike Gray, a San Jose accountant.”

“The trend of walking away is most pronounced among real estate investors, according to Jay Brinkman, an economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). But families are doing it too. ‘If they have to stretch to make mortgage payments for a home that will not recover its value, then yes, they may walk away,’ he said.”

“HouseBuyerNetwork.com CEO Duane LeGate says that Susan’s (not her real name) two-bedroom condo in Sonoma County is worth $340,000, but the mortgage balance is $380,000. She can’t refinance and it’s difficult to sell.”

“She’s still trying for a short sale but, said LeGate, ‘She’ll almost certainly end up walking away.’”

From Forbes. “Even Hollywood’s rich and famous can’t avoid the housing downturn that’s sweeping the nation. In Los Angeles, only 4,430 homes were sold in December, down 48% from the previous year. And prices fell 11% to an average $470,000.”

“Of course, celebrity homes cost much more than that. An entry-level house for an up-and-coming star costs at least $1.4 million in L.A., say experts. Realtor Barry Sloane of Sotheby’s International Realty says it’s the owners trying to sell homes in the $3 million to $6 million range that are having the most trouble.”

“‘A lot of those people are involved, in one way or another, with the strike,’ says Sloane. ‘They’re upgrading from lesser houses that they’re having trouble selling because of the market, so it’s like a domino effect.’”

“Young rocker Avril Lavigne has had to reduce the price on her five-bedroom, six-bath house in Beverly Hills from $6.9 million to $5.8 million. The property is currently in escrow. Since she put the house on the market in February 2007, two offers have fallen through.”

“Former Guns N’ Roses guitarist Slash (also known as Saul Hudson) feels he overpaid for his Spanish-style Hollywood Hills home, which has a pool, a separate gym and stunning views. He bought the house in January 2006 for $6.2 million. He sold it last December for $5.7 million.”

“Slash is suing his former real estate agent, claiming the house was neither as big nor as private as the agent claimed.”

“Television star Wilmer Valderrama had to accept $200,000 less for his five-bedroom home in the relatively unfashionable Valley neighborhood of Tarzana. He sold the house in January for $1.75 million.”

“Johnny Carson sidekick Ed McMahon is also having real estate troubles. He put his 7,000-square-foot Beverly Hills home on the market In July 2006 for $7.7 million. He has since reduced the price three times, and the house is now selling for $5.7 million.”

“Sloane was originally trying to privately sell a historic Neutra home on Mulholland Drive, owned by Vidal Sassoon, for $25 million. When an offer fell through, he lowered the listing to $20 million. That was a year ago.”

“‘There’s usually a waiting list for homes over $20 million,’ says Sloane. ‘Now, it’s slowing down a tiny bit–for the first time in years.’”

From KSBY 6. “Senator Hillary Clinton addressed Central Coast voters this Super Tuesday. In her only local one-on-one interview, the former First Lady talked exclusively with Action News reporter Carina Corral about issues like immigration, the housing crisis, and her daughter’s stop here last week.”

“I asked Senator Clinton, ‘As President, what would you do to make housing more affordable in California?’”

“The senator’s answer was, ‘Well, I’m the only candidate in either party who has a specific plan. I will have a moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days to help people work out staying in their homes, and I would freeze interest rates for five years.’”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

283 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-06 15:27:09

‘I stopped paying my mortgage in October, after shelling out about $70,000 in interest [over 15 months],’ said one borrower, David, who doesn’t want his last name used. ‘Now, I’m just waiting for the default notice.’ He figures his properties have fallen in value by at least $60,000 each.’

‘If they have to stretch to make mortgage payments for a home that will not recover its value, then yes, they may walk away’

It’s funny to watch the media and the industry gasp at what this blog predicted almost three years ago. Who in the heck is going to continue to pay tens of thousands in interest on houses that are losing tens of thousands?

Comment by OCBear
2008-02-06 17:15:32

“David had planned to sell them quickly but got caught in the slump.

Ummmmmm I’m pretty sure he got caught in the Stupid Bubble Frenzy, and as we revert to mean his Greed and Stupidity are exposed. Don’t ya just love the way the media spins….NOT.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-02-06 17:57:02

I’ll have to admit, Ben, you called this one spot on. I was always under the impression that people would fight tooth and nail to keep their houses, but this turn of events proves that not everyone feels that way…especially if it’s not in their economic interest to do so. The knowledge of this little trend is going to go into my bubble handbook to pass down to my kids.

Kind of makes any government sponsored bailout (ala Sen Chris Dodd) that much more futile and dangerous for the taxpayers…

Comment by watchingthebubble
2008-02-06 18:24:59

I guess most folks aren’t familiar with the Denver housing debacle in the early ’90’s. I’m told — I didn’t live there — that people just simply up and walked away from homes. My husband has friends who picked up rental property on the cheap then and just held it. Even stupid people don’t stay stupid forever — eventually they learn to do the math, too.

Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 19:11:29

I think the stupid people stay stupid, but if they don’t do the math, the math is going to do them.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by yogurt
2008-02-06 19:41:40

I was always under the impression that people would fight tooth and nail to keep their houses

People do fight tooth and nail to save their houses - houses that they bought with their own money. For people who “bought” with 100% down, the houses were never “theirs” in the first place.

 
 
Comment by cassiopeia
2008-02-06 18:06:37

Who in the heck is going to continue to pay tens of thousands in interest on houses that are losing tens of thousands?

All it took was a little bit of thought to figure that out. No rocket scientists needed. The thing is no one was thinking. Watching this bubble unravel is like sitting with a buddy to watch a movie that you’ve already seen, so you keep interrupting to tell your buddy: Wait, wait, now comes the part where the guy goes and does this or that. Being ahead of the curve takes away all the suspense. Thanks, Ben.

Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 18:25:26

Cass,

I’m not watching any movies will you!

Leigh ;)

Comment by cassiopeia
2008-02-06 18:32:02

Leigh, life has taught me not to spoil a movie for a buddy, just as I have learned to shut up about the bubble. My husband is terrible, though. He spoiled the Sixth Sense for me because he somehow figured out the twist and could not keep his big mouth shut. Oh, well :-)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 21:39:05

Ah Cass!

The Sixth Sense.

I see debt people!

Wa hoooooooooooooooooooo.

Leigh ;)

 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 21:52:19

Cass,

A thousand apologies. I too figured it out, but said nothing.

Hey! No more movies for hubby!

J/K!
Leigh

P.S. Err…do you have a lockable closset? Ya can let ‘em out for sunshine ;)

 
 
 
Comment by CHILIDOGGG
2008-02-06 19:56:51

Dammit, where were you when I had to watch “The Crying Game?”

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-02-06 22:13:52

ADmit it Doggg, you thought she was hot! :D

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Emmi
2008-02-06 19:22:34

Okay, I just don’t get this no-principal paying mortgage. Perhaps it should be either a) illegal, or b) called something else. “Mortgage” is what your depression era parents had on the house they planned raise a family and then to die in. It just sounds like a good thing because in the old days, in the end, wonder of wonders, it led to owning a house. If you have a financial instrument that empties your bank account every month and in the end gets you nothing, it’s just rent with an option to sell. They should call them that. A Rent-to-not-own Agreement with Occupancy. Then it would sound as stupid as it is.

 
Comment by srlurker
2008-02-06 19:39:38

“Shelling out in interest”. Yeah, that’s right, initially you are “renting from the bank”.

How many people understand that mortgages are structured such that the initial payments are almost all interest? Oh, I guess knowing that would require getting off their a– and reading the mortgage schedule they get from their broker.

Comment by Va Beyatch
2008-02-06 20:03:50

Hmmm. They need REVERSE MORTGAGES! Start out paying full principal then slowly slope into interest only :-)

(Humor, yes I know about the reverse mortgage trend where people prey on the senior folks to give up their equity).

Comment by B. Durbin
2008-02-08 13:33:50

Just a minor correction: a reverse mortgage, by itself, is one of the safest mortgage propositions out there. There are protections and everything up the wazoo.

Unfortunately, many companies have figured out that if they get the senior a big chunk of cash, well, there’s a senior with a big chunk of cash and there’s lots of secondary propositions they can make to the senior, who already trusts them.

In other words, reverse mortgage by itself = pretty safe. There’s mandatory third-party counseling and everything. But if they say, “And now you need an annuity” or any other investment property, leave. Right then.

(I do not sell reverse mortgages. But I have worked with a counselor for them in a non-financial capacity and had the whole process explained.)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Rintoul
2008-02-06 20:36:17

“Structured”, nothing. It’s how the regular ol’ loan works. Big principle - big interest.

 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:05:44

“‘Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices and take a huge loss,’ Link said. ‘Banks want to recoup their investment, and that means they will list properties competitively at prices below comparable homes, but certainly not at fire-sale prices.’”

___________________________________________

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!!!!

Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:07:51

You would never know I am almost 40…

Comment by ACH
2008-02-06 16:13:52

My response would not lead one to believe how old I am.

BWWAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH. BANKS ARE GOING DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Roidy

 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-06 16:41:12

What’s that say about me? You’ve seen my posts, and I’m 43.

 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-06 16:44:20

Oh, I almost forgot….

BAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!!!!

Comment by az_lender
2008-02-06 17:16:32

62-yo joins your chorus: BAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!!!!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by waiting_in_la
2008-02-06 17:56:14

29.

BHWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

HA!

 
Comment by Neil
2008-02-06 22:22:30

BHWAAAAAAAAAAAA HaAAA HAAAA!

38 Az_lender wins. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
 
Comment by mgnyc
2008-02-06 16:59:18

me too crispy

bwahhhhhhhhhhhhha

no fire sale prices

funny stuff

Comment by OCDan
2008-02-06 18:14:46

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Still read from this article that many a koolaid drinker still exists.

Sheesh.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by CHILIDOGGG
2008-02-06 20:01:26

huh huh huh huh huh huh huh

he said “no fire sales,” Beavis

huh huh huh huh huh huh huh huh huh

YEAH! YEAH! NO FIRE SALES! YEAH! YEAH! YEAH!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Hailey
2008-02-06 20:08:12

Bwahahahahahaaaaa!

 
 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:14:47

Just drive through Central California, or Phx, or Florida, or LV….

 
Comment by Backstage
2008-02-06 16:58:56

When you take apart what he’s saying, he’s right about a few things, just for the wrong reasons.

Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices. They are going to lower them incrementally, slowly grinding the price for homes around them down and down and down. What seems like a fire sale today will be a terrific offer next year.

Banks, however, have and are going to continue to take a huge loss.

Getting it partly right does not excuse Mr. Link from being a complete moron. He deserves a hearty BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Comment by salinasron
2008-02-06 18:04:23

“Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices.”

Don’t count on it. At some point property maintenance costs are going to push them to move quickly in that direction. Yards with weeds, unmaintained swimming pools, vandalism, taxes, etc will take a toll.

Comment by OCDan
2008-02-06 18:16:21

All it will take is one bank, Salinsaron. Like most industries, i.e. gas stations, airlines, once the first one gives in and lowers everything 50%, you will see a tsunami.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by steadykat
2008-02-06 18:38:37

My wife and I have brought two properties in our lives, both were distressed sales. The first one was in Belmont Heights (Long Beach) in 97 and we bought it from a Bank. The Bank slashed their throat to make the sell. It was great.

My hope is that all of you here who were smart and waited will eventually have the same enjoyable experience.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Toast on the Coast, 90803
2008-02-06 19:41:13

I also purchased my personnal residence and investment properties in the Long Beach area during 1996 and 1997. The units are on 15 year fixes and in 5 years will be paid off and I’ll be ready to buy again.
Nice Haircut

 
 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 19:15:27

I think a lot depends on the ‘hood too. As we’ve already seen, the less desireable areas are the fastest to fall, so I don’t expect that to be any different with the foreclosures leading the way down.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by denquiry
2008-02-06 19:29:01

yo all…..I never saw a problem that a match wouldn’t solve.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 20:20:04

Fo’ shizzle!

 
 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-02-06 19:53:13

You’re wrong. Banks have a lot of room to slash prices as the 2nd is toast once the property is bank owned. Right here in my hood in SD I see a 20% discount right off the bat once it’s an REO. I’ve seen 100k and more discounts.

 
Comment by pismoclam
2008-02-06 20:19:14

Joshua trees for all.

 
 
Comment by HARM
2008-02-06 17:14:37

I had no idea that banks practised mental accounting too.

 
Comment by James
2008-02-06 19:28:03

The holding cost for a bank is pretty impressive. They take a 30% loss on a sale (-20% price cut) so that works out to be 131K.

If they hold on to the property they lose the property tax every year (1.5%) so that is 10K (more if there are m/rs). Additionally they are losing interest income of 40K per year. That is a 50K holding cost.

Not to mention they take a tax write off on the loss.

So they eat that cost in a mere 2.5 years. Not to mention the risk that values will be even worse.

Nope. They slash by a few percentage points a month till it sells.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 16:05:46

This eCONomist is nothing but trouble, to anybody that dares follow his advice.

L.A.C.E.D. with disinformation…

“Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said he expects activity this year to mirror that of 2007. ‘I don’t think we will see any signs of a recovery in the upcoming months,’ he said. ‘Then the question is what is a recovery. Unit sales will start to tick up and prices will start to tick up but it won’t be double-digit (percentage) increases.’”

Comment by Backstage
2008-02-06 17:04:51

Once again, a moron gets it partly right by accident.

You are correct, Mr, Kyser, there won’t be double digit increases.

Yes, Mr. Kyser, it will be a mirror of last year….Dramatically fewer sales, another 15% lower.

So please explain, Mr. Kyser, your contradiction about the ‘tick up’ in sales and prices you are expecting?

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 19:17:26

I think a recovery, 2 years from now, will be that there will still be cat food on the shelves, and hopefully municipal services.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 16:06:41

It turns out that Osama Lufti (the guy who’s been drugging Britney Spears and controlling her affairs) has a history of obsessive/controlling behavior and restrainin orders filed against him. Here’s the link:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23017882/

Personally, I’m glad Britney is being vindicated.

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 16:57:11

BV,

It is from the usually reliable source for all the celebrity crap. Let Ms. Spears vanish in peace.

from Reuters

“Britney Spears was released on Wednesday from the Los Angeles hospital where she had been undergoing a mental evaluation since last week, published reports said.

…Spears’ father, Jamie Spears, and attorney Andrew Wallete have been granted temporary control of her assets, including her house, pending further legal proceedings….”

This is appearing more and more like an unfounded accusation against Mr. Lufti.

Follow the money.

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:26:25

Don’t bet on it. I’ve seen a lot of vultures attach themselves to drug-addled celebrities. Everybody is following the money, Britney is her own industry.

The Economics of Britney Spears

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:57:21

I believe you. I do not even know who Ms Britney Spears is/was (I’m ignorant of all current entertainers but Hannah Montana), but when a person is locked in a hospital for a week and then before she is released, her father is trying to get control of her estate. It smells like lutefisk.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by phillygal
2008-02-06 19:08:43

Agree.

as soon as I heard dear ol’ dad was granted conservator status on her estate, I thought, that’s what the old buzzard wanted all along. So, the drugging or not drugging of her food by shady manager is really just the vehicle for the money grab.

If Britney really does have a mental illness, God help her. She sounds like she’s surrounded by sharks.
\disclaimer:
I have no particular regard or affection for Miss Spears. However I am closely associated with someone who has suffered from a serious mental illness, and it is no picnic - for all parties concerned.

So much about this stinks like rotten fish. In order for a person to be declared legally incompetent, the individual has to be so messed up they don’t even know their own name, or what country they’re in. Girlfriend drove away from the hospital in a Benz today, didn’t she?

OK enough of the threadjack.

 
 
 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-06 16:57:11

V: Not sure why you went down this path, but I don’t get the vindication reference. She’s as common as most bipolars - she’s crazy when she doesn’t take her meds, she self medicates rather than take her meds. Until she’s stable she is a danger to her kids and unlikely to have much of a life except chaos and crazy episodes. But really, who cares, she has every opportunity to have the best of care with no financial worries and is wasting her life.

 
Comment by salinasron
2008-02-06 18:07:18

“Personally, I’m glad Britney is being vindicated.”

Who in the hell gives a rat’s a$$ what happens with Britney; this isn’t a Britney love fest blog!

Comment by wittbelle
2008-02-06 18:49:04
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-02-06 19:13:57

Personally, I’m glad Britney is being vindicated.”

Can you tell us, did she have her underwear on or off when vindicated?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:51:04

You are all so bad, I have now had to google and read the crap on Ms. Spears.

This is hysterical. Stop wasting my time!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-02-06 20:15:34

Okay, Brit is mentally ill but what’s wrong with you? Seriously, you are whack.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 16:07:27

How’s that strike working for you, Hollywood?

“‘A lot of those people are involved, in one way or another, with the strike,’ says Sloane. ‘They’re upgrading from lesser houses that they’re having trouble selling because of the market, so it’s like a domino effect.’”

Comment by Emmi
2008-02-06 19:27:11

Is that strike still going on?

Gosh.

(I don’t watch tv. Stopped for a while, realized I didn’t miss it. Getting a ton more done as a result. I can’t even stand to have one on nearby now. What an incessant droning of moronic pap. No wonder people got so stupid about just everything.)

Comment by Eggman
2008-02-06 21:35:36

Ask your library to get you a copy of Four Arguments for the Elimination of Television

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 16:09:20

“Home sales in the San Fernando Valley plunged a record 35 percent last year to their lowest level in more than two decades as fewer buyers qualified for loans amid the ongoing mortgage meltdown, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors said. Annual home sales in 2007 fell to their lowest level since record-keeping began in 1985. December sales fell an annual 51.6 percent, to 390 transactions. Condominium sales fell 55.6 percent.”

Sales are like, grody to the max.

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-02-06 16:58:56

I’m so sure… Grody is like.. so 15 minutes ago. Now we’re saying.. like gnarly and stuff.

Comment by MrBubble
2008-02-06 17:41:34

http://youtube.com/watch?v=5M9aY7hXjGU

Ah, the Solid Gold Dancers. Nice trip down memory lane for 30 somethings… Marilyn McCoo, where are youuuuu?

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 22:27:18

No, the correct parlance in teenage speak is “Sick”. Gnarly is oh so 90s.

 
 
Comment by LILLL
2008-02-06 20:46:58

I am finding that there are some houses on the low end (under 400k) that are over 30% off peak prices in the SFV. Some of the reos I’ve been watching have been following the market down-then BAM-the bank reduces the price drastically-
It’s been a very interesting ride. BTW–has anybody else noticed rents falling in the SF Valley? I sure have.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:09:20

“The senator’s answer was, ‘Well, I’m the only candidate in either party who has a specific plan. I will have a moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days to help people work out staying in their homes, and I would freeze interest rates for five years.’

_______________________________________________

And how would that help?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:16:44

Ahem. Aren’t a lot of these foreclosed homes vacant? As in, they were bought as investments?

Comment by spike66
2008-02-06 16:32:11

“Well, I’m the only candidate in either party who has a specific plan.”

I don’t know why they refer to this person as intelligent. There’s so very little evidence. ok,then,a 90 day moratorium while the slow witted folks count on their fingers and realize that even if interest rates were zero, they would still be underwater on their overpriced crackerboxes. Then “freeze interest rates”–I presume she means mortgage rates. Under what authority…executive privilege? So those folks who objected to Bush’s shredding of the Constitution will get more of the same. And, will the sliced and diced owners of the mortgage securities be forced to agree? How?
Under what international authority?
Billary seems to be innumerate, and for a chick who made bank in commodities trading,stunningly ignorant of market capitalism.
The prefect prez for a nation of dimwit FBs.

Comment by hd74man
2008-02-06 19:16:41

RE: The prefect prez for a nation of dimwit FBs.

You’ve got a Roger One on that, good buddy!

The mortgage payment debt moratorium is coming!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-02-07 01:59:38

Good comment :)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by az_owner
2008-02-06 16:41:16

Thou shalt not question the widsom of Our Dear Leader.

Dear Leader will use the government to make everything better.

Dear Leader will provide you everything you need.

Dear Leader will take away all that painful personal responsibility.

Dear Leader will take away all that messy freedom.

Do not question the abilities of our Dear Leader.

Obey, and be greatful for what the government will allow you to have.

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:02:22

“A happy population makes leaders appear talented.”

 
Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-02-06 18:28:51

And I did not read it anywhere in the Constitution that a FB is entitled to a 5 year freeze on his mortgage interest rate.

Hillary is a commie.

Comment by exeter
2008-02-06 19:19:56

Boo!!! The communists are coming! look out!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-02-07 04:44:54

You may be snickering, but it is true that Hillary is a communist. Combining these two URLs is all that is needed for proof:

1. http://tinyurl.com/wvrqw

2. http://tinyurl.com/32vadl

Ignoring current events and ignoring the words from vociferous public figures could very well lead you and millions of people to slavery.

 
 
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-02-06 20:12:05

I saw this on a truck the other day.
http://tinyurl.com/27bnma

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 22:29:56

Not a Hilary supporter, but wanted to point out there’s a lot of stuff our Administration is doing that’s not in the Constitution. torture, anyone?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-07 15:36:20

Hey Wait a minute you stole that off the disclaimer written on the back of Oprah’s Show Tickets.

 
 
Comment by EastBayBubble
2008-02-06 16:41:59

It will NOT help. If you put a moratorium on foreclosure here is what will happen. The banks will instead of filling Notices of Default after three months will have to sit out that 3 months, and then the people being foreclosed on will get an extra 90 days in their house for free. Prices will drop just as they are but you’ll have a huge sugre of foreclosures when the moratoriam ends.

Freezing interest rates (also I’m not sure how legally this can be done, seems like the Government would have to force the banks and consumers to agreeing to something). Will just cause the housing crash to be prolonged. Say over the next five years…

Both of the Democrats have put forward some kind of flawed plan that will just make the crash take longer and be more painful.

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:38:05

Neither is real. Senator Clinton is well aware of it. This is smoke and mirrors.

Why in this day and age does anybody believe a single word from a candidate for any public office?

You might as well buy a house its not getting any cheaper.

In fact Realtors have a higher trust rating than any politician.

Comment by Neil
2008-02-06 22:33:48

In fact Realtors have a higher trust rating than any politician.

What!?! JK, I’m sure there is something to what you say Hoz…

But I’m with the others, exactly what good does it do scaring banks away from loaning money? Is there a payoff is freezing whats left of the CMBS market? ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by SFC
2008-02-06 16:41:59

She would freeze these rates by placing them between her legs for 10 seconds…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:42:51

Now that is SO cold!

 
Comment by wmbz
2008-02-06 17:10:49

For some reason I believe she may be able to pull that off.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-02-06 17:45:13

Nah, the military would never back a permanent dictatorial power grab by Hillary. That’s the only possible way she could accomplish it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 18:49:22

Bill,

Unique perspective.

I served for 21 honorable years. The only orders I refused to follow were ones that were unconstitutional.

Of course, this lady, always looked the CO in the eye, and patiently explained I am protecting your interest, Sir/Ma’am. (Or ask them to put it in writing, and that will cure what ails them!)

Now I read my brothers and sisters are leaking information to the media. (Lost nukes, suicides, unlawful intel orders).

I am cautious, borderline paranoid -

Would the military intervene?

Ah…probably just wearing my tinfoil hat to tight!

Leigh

 
 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-06 18:28:27

Party foul!! But really effin’ funny!

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 16:45:20

She will TRY to freeze rates and ban foreclosures, but she will not succeed. First of all, Congress will disagree. Secondly, the banks will sick the Supreme Court on her asterisk and I don’t think the court will let her get away with it. Finally, if she even SEEMS like she’s going to succeed (which she won’t), then all banks will immediately foreclose on every single person who’s even just the slightest bit late on payments, with no negotiation and no workout.

Let’s say she gets what she wants. If she does that, all the mortgage lenders in America will just shut their doors. After all, if they don’t have the right to collect their collateral, then they have no incentive to lend. That will tank the housing market even faster.

Comment by az_lender
2008-02-06 16:58:18

I can believe that some politicians could ram through legislation outlawing the initiation of new ARMs, and Hillary could claim that this is what she meant by freezing mortgage rates. So what. The requirement that people qualify for 30yr fixed will just make it more immediately obvious how few people are qualified to buy houses at the current wishing prices.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:02:02

“Let’s say she gets what she wants. If she does that, all the mortgage lenders in America will just shut their doors… That will tank the housing market even faster.”

Maybe that’s the plan. ;-)

Take the disaster in the first year of your first term and blame it on the previous incumbent. Then nationalize the home loan business, hand out below-market loans, and you’re sailing to re-election in 2012 just as things start to pick up again.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 17:10:03

Freezing rates would have to be a one-way deal too. Imagine if they froze rates a year ago…

 
Comment by reuven
2008-02-06 19:02:52

That will tank the housing market even faster.

And what’s wrong with that? Even though I OWN A HOME (100% paid up), I’d much rather prices return to their historical 3.5x median incomes. Bubbles are bad for everyone.

And because I’m not an idiot, nor am I a greedy pig, I know that any imagined value in my home means absolutely nothing. It’s simply a place to live.

 
Comment by James
2008-02-06 19:47:29

Perhaps banks will notice Hillary and the Dems getting closer to unopposed rule; and start forclosing faster in the new year? Get the forclosures in before the legislation starts up.

Probably neutral as people try to hang on waiting for that legislation to give them extra time.

 
Comment by Desertdweller
2008-02-06 19:47:32

geeze guys, “SHE” isn’t in office nor will anyone else be in office till late Jan 09. So, whatever is going to happen is going to happen during the shrubs reign and the numskulls that are in office now.
It is only February now, so whatever is going to happen will happen, and those who are all talk now, will not be able to do anything about it till early Feb 09.
NO SOONER!!!

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 22:35:08

Thanks for your sane observations. Again, I’m not voting for Hillary but I’m sick of the whack jobs who seem to get their jocks in a bunch when they even contemplate her as Prez. Nobody could do as sucky a job as the poseur in office right now.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-07 16:00:43

I expect to see a tsunami of guidance warnings and re-statements of earnings the day after the election.
If the intimidation by the suits dosen’t get them what they want the day of inaguration they will initiate a scorched earth policy, board their GV4’s and wait out 4 years in a spa resort. Ph U McBillary, you want us to mark to market, take it then, have fun for the next 4 years.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-02-06 17:09:56

How would freezing interest rates make houses more affordable?

Oh, I don’t know. Maybe it would totally kill off whatever is left of the mortgage market meaning EVERY house currently for sale would need a cash buyer or end up as a foreclsoure to be liquidated by the banks at some future point for whatever they were able to self-finance or find a cash buyer for.

This is as dumb as rent control. Rents are going up due to lack of houseing, so let’s do rent control to ensure no new rental units come on the market…..

House prices are falling because we’re transitioning from a specualtive mania to a standard end user market, and the transition is causing mass losses to lenders who are tightening their lending standards locking people out of the market that are willing to be the next round of foreclosed on Fooked Buyers.

So, let’s just alter the terms of all ARM mortgages to ensure we kill off what is left of the mortgage market… sure. Great!

 
Comment by James
2008-02-06 19:39:17

I was going to say “Perhaps you didn’t understand the question”

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2008-02-06 20:09:25

Hillary, like most polititians, ignored the question and launched right into her talking points. Affordable housing implies an equilibrium between incomes and housing costs. Her talking points will serve to delay the correction in California and keep housing unaffordable.

 
Comment by Eggman
2008-02-06 21:38:38

It wouldn’t, which is great. She can say she’s got a plan, but she’s not going to actually screw anything up. I can get behind that. What you want to watch out for is the people over on the Red side who are arguing that the government needs to step in and pick up sub-prime lending where the banks dropped it.

 
Comment by Ernst Blofeld
2008-02-06 22:15:27

No lender in their right mind would make a loan under those conditions. That means the only buyers will be those with cash, which will cause prices to drop to what can be paid in cash. Given typical American savings rates, that would be about a buck fifty.

So, cheap housing all around.

Comment by mossypete
2008-02-06 23:43:36

“no lender in their right mind”….

Gee you mean lenders in their right minds made 125% LTV i/o loans in the $ 500K neighborhood to $15k yr strawberry pickers.

It’s all about incentives and risks…design the proper incentives - lay the risk off on someone else and they;ll lend.
Read the op ed by some jerk named millstein in tomorrow’s NYTimes.

 
 
 
Comment by smf
2008-02-06 16:09:46

“‘I don’t think the Valley will be as impacted as the rest of the state or nation,’ Jim Link, executive VP of the Realtors group, said of the foreclosure situation. ‘There will be an impact on prices but I don’t think they will tumble 20 (percent) or 30 percent.’”

“‘Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices and take a huge loss,’ Link said. ‘Banks want to recoup their investment, and that means they will list properties competitively at prices below comparable homes, but certainly not at fire-sale prices.’”

He forgot to click his red shoes.

Boy, a lot of people are saying what he is stating now. Probably the same people who stated how ’special’ their area is/was.

Sacramento already went past this (denial) stage, and now that we have seen the 30-40% drops already, those who said it was ‘impossible’ for such drops to occur cannot conceive of further drops.

BTW, banks are starting to lead in price drops, especially those who have seen the writing on the wall and see further drops coming. Banks are not as stupid as the sellers who weren’t ‘going to give my house away’ only to take a lesser price later.

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 16:36:09

“…Banks are not as stupid as the sellers who weren’t ‘going to give my house away’ only to take a lesser price later….”

I humbly disagree. The banks have the same greed mentality that percolated through this bubble. Look at the stupidity of Citigroup, Bank of America, Wachovia, Deutsche, Wells Fargo - these are just some of the banks. There is no reason to believe that banks will get any smarter.

Eventually the banks will be forced to liquidate REOs.

Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 17:27:31

Hey Hoz,

I’ve been checking REO sites at least once a week for well over a year.

I believe you are correct, forcing banks into liquidation will be the only way to move these POS, unless Goldman flubs it up (please no).

GSEs are moving lower, in WI anyway (not sure about other states).

Countryfried are out of their ever loving minds, and price above what some insane W’consites are selling (wishing).

BoA has little to nothing here in WI, at relative pricing.

Unfortunately, hubby and I are looking for the right house, w/outbuildings and a bit of land - not to be found on the REO sites YET.

Leigh ;)

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 18:03:55

Go to the title office nearest you and ask one of the title clerks (ask as a favor) who might be looking to sell a 10 -50 acre w/house. Title companies generally have the foreclosure and other pertinent information first.

Next if no luck go to the largest farm in the area and stop in and ask the farmer who is looking to sell. Unless the area you are looking for in Wisconsin has a population greater than 5,000, there is no garbage pickup. So farmers tend to congregate at the dump to catch up on news. Just a few thoughts.

Have cue stick, will travel!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 18:52:29

Snookers baby!

Good advise - have done some research, but the snow, ya know!

Best,
Leigh

 
 
 
 
Comment by peter m
2008-02-06 20:40:38

“‘I don’t think the Valley will be as impacted as the rest of the state or nation,’ Jim Link, executive VP of the Realtors group, said of the foreclosure situation. ‘There will be an impact on prices but I don’t think they will tumble 20 (percent) or 30 percent.’”

BS! I can slice and dice the entire SFV from Glendale all way to Agoura hills, and there are areas in the central, east&northeast SFV as bad as SCentral LA. San fernando, sylmar, pacoima, sun valley, panorama city, arlerta have large patches which are trashed- out illegal alien safe zones & gang -infested apt tenement ratholes. Even astride the 405 and along sherman/roscoe going east/west it looks like little tijuana.

large parts of Eastern and Central SFV are pretty ratted and dismal. Not much different than much of LA city and county. The valley as depicted in Brady bunch and valley girls has changed into the Valley of Mexico. I see a 40%+ drop easily for entire valley with the northern and eastern ragged areas dropping 50-60%. Pacoima/ Arleta /sun valley/san fernando/sylmar will see gutted REO’s available around $150,000 in winter 2008-09.

You would not want to live in those areas even if houses are free.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-06 16:12:04

That’s quite the haircut…

“Sloane was originally trying to privately sell a historic Neutra home on Mulholland Drive, owned by Vidal Sassoon, for $25 million. When an offer fell through, he lowered the listing to $20 million. That was a year ago.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 16:15:58

“‘Housing prices have always gone up and fallen and gone back up again — putting a timeline to it intelligently is impossible,’ del Rio said.”

Let me take a rough stab at it (exact years are location-specific, as all real estate is local):

1975(?)-1979 = generally rising prices (”seller’s market”)
1980-1984 = generally falling prices (”buyer’s market”)
1985-1989 = generally rising prices (”seller’s market”)
1990-1996 = generally falling prices (”buyer’s market”)
1997-2005 = generally rising prices (”seller’s market”)
2006-???? = generally falling prices (”buyer’s market”)

Does anyone else detect a pattern here?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:17:52

Looks like a pattern to me. And a cyclical one at that.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 16:28:34

PB, are saying that we’re in a buyer’s market?

I disagree. We’re in a no-man’s market.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:26:03

No — I am saying we are in a “buyer’s market” (quotation marks are meaningful here).

 
 
Comment by Groundhogday
2008-02-06 16:38:23

This Gabe del Rio is the same guy who used $50k in state grants to get a low income minority family into a $300k piece of crap in San Diego. Remember the nice write up a month or two back?

He is right on one point, home values going up and down if you buy to live in a home rather than as an investment… ASSUMING rents are comparable to ownership costs and the owner can actually afford the mortgage. BIG assumption.

 
Comment by az_owner
2008-02-06 16:48:13

That looks like an exponentially increasing sine wave in duration.

Given that the magnitude of price gain or reduction has also increased with each cycle, my estimate is that the current buyer’s market will be from 2006-2014 (More accuratelyJune 17th 2014, sometime around noonish, maybe 1PM on the West Coast), with a total reduction in price of 46.3% from peak. ;-)

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:31:01

It is a sine wave with increasing amplitude and lengthening period (thanks, AG).

Comment by az_owner
2008-02-06 19:06:56

Otherwise known as an Unstable System.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 16:50:16

Well, this is a lovely retreat from the old mantra that “real estate never goes down”. Do you think these people really believe what they’re spouting?

 
Comment by REO Realtor
2008-02-06 19:03:11

“anyone see the pattern here”
Sure….the declining years are getting longer than the years of appreciation…. so we just had nine up years….so 2006 to 2014,15,16 for the declining years. Houston(LV,PHX.OC.FLA) we
have a problem!

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 19:30:21

2006-???? = the sky is falling (”holy crap”)

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:19:07

CSCO missed and guided down AH. Stock is tanking in AH, look for some red arrows tommorow…Tech is dead, along with housing, the consumer, etc….

Comment by txchick57
2008-02-06 16:21:52

Can you or someone else splain to me how JDSU good, CSCO bad? I must just be dull but I don’t get it.

But I did say last summer and early fall that I liked tech as a short better than homies. Lots of bull market genuii puking their guts up every day.

Comment by mgnyc
2008-02-06 17:13:31

hey tx chick.

i know your affinity for amazon
from mid 90’s to 67 in a few weeks
looks cheap. what do you think?

Comment by txchick57
2008-02-06 17:35:51

haven’t looked at it since Dec.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-06 19:26:48

No such thing as a cheap stock with a P/E over 30 unless you’re in a business others can’t enter, preferably one that makes people go crazy with happiness. AMZN is neither. It is going down like all the others. We’re eventually going to get to the situation of 30 years ago when 10X was rich, 20X unthinkable.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by NB Bear
2008-02-06 17:19:15

Seems like yesterday that CSCO surpassed a $500B market cap and the pundits were speculating that it would be the first trillion $ company…gotta love bubbles.

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-02-06 16:31:12

Where do you get AH numbers? I watch bigcharts but no AH info.

Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-06 16:56:18

You can pay for them or yhoo finance has them for free

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-02-06 17:03:57

Thanks. Just rechecked and Bigcharts does have them too.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 16:34:07

The first thing companies do when things get tight is freeze capital spending. This goes straight to the heart of Tech, especially hardware, but also software. And at this time of year managers get to see what they actually spent last year, and compare it to the business they see coming in for the next few months. CSCO had better hope their overseas and government customers step up their purchasing fast.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 17:17:45

Without HELOC gone there’s no way FBs can maintain their hyper-comsuming ways for the duration of this RE downturn. Even if they could be kept in their castles by the fat nanny they will have no supplements to their staganted wages for possibly a decade or more.

No matter how they spin it in 2008, consumer discretionary is gonna get whacked.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-02-06 16:20:37

Neutra houses are cool. Put them anywhere by SoCal and you’d probably have a swimming pool in your living room on the first rainstorm.

And as for the Senatrix, where’s Sammy Schaudenfraude and his taser gun?

Comment by AK-LA
2008-02-06 18:29:14

A Neutra house in Pasadena already has the pool in the living room. That guy was good.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 22:39:48

yeah, no granite countertops to be seen anywhere….. Notice how those flagstone and river rock veneers on millenium tract houses look really stupid now? just like the lava rock fad of the 60s….

 
 
 
Comment by Giacomo
2008-02-06 16:20:48

“Doreen Chastain-Shine, 2008 president of the Association’s Santa Clarita Valley Division said, ‘I truly do not expect resale prices to go down all that much. Still, sellers don’t want to believe what’s happening…”

Pick a side to play on, Doreen.. or just be quiet.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-02-06 16:21:52

‘Banks want to recoup their investment, and that means they will list properties competitively at prices below comparable homes, but certainly not at fire-sale prices.’”

Dream on. Housing is no “investment” when the Axis of Weasels - sleazy realtors working hand-in-glove with crooked “I’ll-hit-your-number” appraisors and mortgage originators with no skin in the game foisted bubblelicious overpriced crapboxes on FBs with no ability or inclination to pay back 100% loans on depreciating “assets.” As communities pass more and more ordinances targeting the owners of vacant, foreclosed housing, and as the epidemic of thefts and squatting in these homes further shreds their market value, trust me, the lenders will see the light and start shedding these liabilities for whatever they can get.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:33:20

Speaking of ordinances, look what just passed in Ye Olde Pueblo:

Tucson council OKs tightened rules against slumlords

Sotto voce: More than a few of these slumlords are the “investors” we like to trash on this forum.

 
Comment by Neil
2008-02-06 22:43:29

No, they won’t do fire-sale prices. So homes will sit on the market as competing banks undercut them.

the lenders will see the light and start shedding these liabilities for whatever they can get. Or the banks walk away a la Detroit.

Cities better be careful, this is another alternative: Instant slums.

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by peter m
2008-02-06 23:19:04

“As communities pass more and more ordinances targeting the owners of vacant, foreclosed housing, and as the epidemic of thefts and squatting in these homes further shreds their market value, trust me, the lenders will see the light and start shedding these liabilities for whatever they can get. ”

We will see slash & burn tactics by the banks applied to reo sales in the gutted LA ghettos as these clapbord stucco POS’s pile up like crap in a pigsty in already declining LA hoods. Problem is the folks in these barrios are mostly immigrants who really don’t give a rats ass about their deteriorating hoods as they are either renters or are just residing in US temporarily till they have sent back enough remittances to Mexico/ CA and can then return back to the home country after milking the social welfare net for all its worth. Or if they brought clapshacks in these LA-tijuana colonias it is with 100% financing and most will walk out and leave gutted rotted foreclosed wreakage in their wake., This is happening all over LA in the marginal inner hoods. Look for 40-60% YOY declines in these slumburgs in 2008.

Half of LA City is a marginal gang-infested graffiti-scrawled dump with foreclosures piling up like garbage in a landfill.

 
 
Comment by vmaxer
2008-02-06 16:23:26

“And now skipping out on a home is easier, thanks to the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007. Previously, if a bank sold a foreclosed home for less than the mortgage balance and it forgave the difference, the borrower had to pay tax on that difference as if it were income. Now the IRS will ignore it.”

Again as we predicted, on this blog.

When the bankruptcy laws were scheduled to change, a few years ago, there was a rush to file. Now the Mortgage Debt relief Act is greasing the foreclosure option, for people.

Comment by vmaxer
2008-02-06 16:26:11

The Fed has actually provided an incentive for foreclosure.

Comment by spike66
2008-02-06 16:35:33

I think the IRS forgives the difference if it’s a short sale. But if the FB just walks, I think they are still stuck with a tax bill.

 
 
Comment by SFC
2008-02-06 16:40:02

It’s my understanding the Mortgage Debt Relief is only for a principal residence. David two-homes is going to get hammered on taxes in whichever foreclosed home he picks to be his non-principal residence.

Comment by pismoclam
2008-02-06 20:37:20

California doesn’t recognise the NEW IRS rules on debt relief. hehehehehehe Get the Joshua tree ready or move out of state. You can also no habla though. The Dems in Sacramento will cave in as usual.

 
 
Comment by FP
2008-02-06 18:20:12

What about houses that were bought for investment not primary? Can a FB walk away if he owned 2,3,4 houses without paying taxes?

Comment by desi dude
2008-02-06 21:41:50

I read somewhere that there are several restrictions.

a) if HELOCd/Refinanced, only the portion used for home improvement
b) primary residence only

etc

 
 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 16:26:45

“Take Janey Cole, for instance. ”

All the Jane jokes this leaves open.

 
Comment by RayW
2008-02-06 16:27:43

“‘I don’t think the Valley will be as impacted as the rest of the state or nation,’ Jim Link, executive VP of the Realtors group, said of the foreclosure situation. ‘There will be an impact on prices but I don’t think they will tumble 20 (percent) or 30 percent.’”

Yet another example of the “we’re special and different” attitude. LA and California is never going to be the same as the rest of the world because EVERYBODY wants to live here and make a gazillion dollars a year in either the High Tech or Porno industry. Geez…when are these fools going to stop? Probably when they tear their RE License out of their cold dead hands…which will be hastened by their starvation due to no money coming in.

I find it interesting that the 30 year fixed mortgage is hovering around 5.6% and the housing market is still tanking…..if there isn’t any other proof the market is a dead cat I don’t know what is.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 17:09:56

I searched bankrate dot com, and it looks like a refinance costs about 6.4 to 7.4% on your typical Silicon Valley crapshack.

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:28:49

If you can qualify, If you have equity, etc…

 
 
Comment by peter m
2008-02-06 21:03:44

“Yet another example of the “we’re special and different” attitude. LA and California is never going to be the same as the rest of the world because EVERYBODY wants to live here and make a gazillion dollars”

LA is different all right . A tiny .01% of well-to do or wealthy entertainment biz folks owning mansions in hollywood hills-Malibu-bev hills-brentwood and 99.9% of rest of LA either your 9-5 Joe Shlumb white collar/working class wage earner or the hispanic immigrant proletariat class.

 
 
Comment by ouden mallon
2008-02-06 16:30:00

“He joins a growing group of people facing the leave-or-stay quandary. ‘I want to honor what I signed,’ he said. ‘But I have to make a business decision that I have to make for my family.’”

What can you say?

 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 16:31:32

Slash is suing his former real estate agent!

Priceless - just priceless!

Leigh ;)

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 16:44:41

I wonder if Used House Salespeople carry E&O insurance?

Otherwise, there would be nothing to recover in a lawsuit but the sour negative equity on their house, car, and speculative “investments”. Many of these guys were mainlining their own Kool-Aid. So who ya gonna call? ToastBusters?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:25:42

I do not think E&O covers fraud for the Realtor and the insurance company would claim fraud. The real estate agency should be immune.

So either way the Realtor is toasted.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 19:02:45

Grr…post got et.

I read the article Ben posted and Slash is out for cash or maybe smash, crash, trash (bet ya he’ll have her/his RE license!)

Wage garnishment?

Dang, don’t slash me bro!

Chuckles,
Leigh

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-02-06 17:09:29

Slash and his wife have since suffered “grief, shame, humiliation, embarrassment, anger, worry, disappointment, nervousness, stomach disorders, backaches, loss of appetite and inability to concentrate on work.”

So sell a hat on eBay already.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-02-06 17:42:57

Sounds like just another day at the office to me….

Comment by MD_Renter
2008-02-06 21:44:56

Yes, that pretty much sums up my day at work today.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by krazy bill
2008-02-06 17:21:19

Welcome to the jungle, Slash.

Comment by hd74man
2008-02-06 19:20:58

RE: Welcome to the jungle, Slash.

LMAO…Better copyright before Leno gets it!

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-06 19:37:58

What a douche. A bad-boy of rock and roll crying because the price of his house got slashed. We all feel for ya.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 17:23:59

What great free (negative) publicity for the NAR!

 
Comment by FutureVulture
2008-02-06 21:43:53

You people are missing the big picture here. SLASH NEEDS MORE PRIVACY! This is a dude who has kinky sex in public just to help him stay awake in the afternoon. What the hell is he planning to do that requires extreme privacy?!

This is all going to end badly.

 
 
Comment by SLO_renter
2008-02-06 16:33:51

Just a couple of years ago, MTV was running shows that described the “bragging rights” going to Hollywood stars who had paid record prices for their homes. Since when is paying more than anybody else something to brag about? Maybe a little sanity is finally returning to S. CA.

Comment by waiting_in_la
2008-02-06 17:12:48

Sanity … in SoCal …

Please, I live here. I am probably not immune.

People here are f&*%ing nuts. Period.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-06 18:21:09

“Since when is paying more than anybody else something to brag about?”

Since when do I care to hear about Britney and Paris? Apparently rehab and over-paying for a house are to be revered and emulated time and again.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-02-06 22:47:45

“Since when is paying more than anybody else something to brag about?”

When you’re paying Ben his due for providing this priceless information? :D

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 16:35:21

Argh. My LL just called me. He’s really mad because I gave him my 30-day notice on the 1st. He wanted me to keep living in the house until he found a buyer, then move out on his time scale. He doesn’t understand why I don’t have more “consideration” for him. On top of that, he expects me to agree to an open house this Sunday (for prospective buyers). I’m like “no”. I don’t want people stealing my stuff. He can open it up after I move. He acts like I’m doing something unethical by moving out. Like he’s entitled to make a huge profit in exchange for nothing, and that if my needs interfere with his, then I’m like infringing upon his god-given right of homeowner superiority. Have Bay Area LLs always been this way, or is it just an artifact of the bubble?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:45:05

I’d be like “no” too. I wouldn’t want strangers to even see my stuff!

Comment by AdamCO
2008-02-06 16:52:50

I would sooo be like no. The place I’m renting is for sale. It has been shown three times since I moved in last July. No interest at all. (Rent $800/month, for sale at $360,000).

Comment by az_lender
2008-02-06 17:10:49

Just today, someone who “invested” in two Central Coast houses back in the late 80’s was telling me that Calif houses “never” fall to a price that gives the buyer a positive initial cash flow through rental. But that is probably false. Certainly the condo I bought in Glendale CA in 1994 would’ve been rentable at a monthy amount that would’ve covered the condo fee and taxes AND given me an income comparable to the coupon available from tax-free bonds at that time. (The cash I bought it with came out of tfb.) Maybe it’s never worked for SFH, but I doubt that too. Anyway, if it never HAS, that doesn’t mean it never WILL. People could get really spooked about the “appreciation” value of property after this show goes on for a few more years.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:38:09

I recall that it almost worked for SFRs in San Fernando Valley in the early 1970’s. It did work in Malibu during the 1960’s.

Since then, I can’t think of a case. Not to say it could never happen, but…

Condos are a bit more likely to pencil out, since they get hammered so badly in housing recessions.

 
 
Comment by gascap
2008-02-06 17:29:23

Here’s what I’d do, agree to the open house. Then if anyone is actually stupid enough to show up to consider buying, remark how nice it is to live there for 800 bucks a month rent vs the 3,000 bucks it will be for the mortgage.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Giacomo
2008-02-06 19:37:54

That’s the right idea… tell your landlord you’ll be there to (1) safeguard your stuff and (2) to offer commentary on every one of the house’s defects, and the latest gossip about the crazy neighbors.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 20:45:55

Yeah, fight fire with fire. Show him who’s the boss.

Love this!!!

Make sure you put up a huge banner saying “Why pay $3000/month when the rent is $800?”

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-02-06 17:17:19

How about throwing us an MLS number for the listing ? I’m promise I won’t come by and steal your beer.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 17:33:34

No, but I might. Times are tough y’know!

 
 
Comment by Joe
2008-02-06 17:42:52

Dude, have some fun. Go to your local sex shop and by a bunch of really kinky stuff, then lay it all out around the place. THEN have the open house.

Hilarity ensues!

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-02-06 17:52:32

That reminds me of a bumper sticker I saw a while back, on a car driven by a rather attractive young sweetie.

“It’s only kinky the first time.”

Comment by combotechie
2008-02-06 20:45:44

What’s the difference between sexy and kinky?

Sexy is when you use a feather.

Kinky is when you use the whole chicken.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by wittbelle
2008-02-06 19:05:28

That would be AWESOME! I’m sure the landlord wouldn’t think so, though, and he’d probably sue him for hindering a sale or interfering with his income or some such nonsense, plus pain and suffering. That reminds me of the time I ordered a repo of a car the credit union I worked for financed. The repo guy reported back that it was filled with sex toys, etc. When the debtor came to claim his belongings the repo guy asked what the clothes pins were for: nipple clamps. Go figure. Kink on a budget!

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-02-06 22:55:51

Ouch. Ouch. And did I mention Ouch? Granted I’ve never tried any of those, but it just seems like for safety’s sake there are some things you should not go cheap on!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Desertdweller
2008-02-06 20:41:23

Say SURE and sit around all day in your underpants and torn up tshirt and make sure your hair isn’t combed.

Belch and have chips strewn all over your coffee table with cartoons on tv.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 18:00:57

Hey BigV,

Couple of questions/thoughts.

My lease states I must give written notice of non-renewal 60 days in advance, and must allow LL reasonable access for showing (during said period - for prospective renter(s) - not buyers!)

From your post, it appears s/he recently made the decision to sell.

(BTW - s/he are bum heads!)

It’s none of my business, but does your lease have provisions for showing (you are not obliged to share, just attempting to protect your assets).

Smiles,
Leigh

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 19:08:33

No, it doesn’t. I live in CA, though, where the laws are very detailed on this sort of thing. I don’t have to let him show it at all to prospective tenants. If he gives me notice in writing of his intent to sell the property, then I have to allow him to show the place to prospective buyers by appointment with 24 hours notice between the hours of 9 AM and 5 PM Monday through Friday, and I have the right to be present. Of course, he hasn’t given me written notice (I found out the house was listed by looking on Zillow), and I doubt anyone will be interested in making an appointment.

 
 
 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-02-06 16:35:21

” … she’s now looking forward to a free one-hour counseling session with a top-notch Toll Bros. selling representative. It’s worth $350.”

Yep, those Toll Bros. sales reps sure know all the “secrets” of selling houses. I’m sure plenty of outside sales people would pay $350 an hour to chat with one of those Toll Bros reps. Janey should consider herself very lucky to win such a valuable prize. (Just think that part of Janey’s job is to recommend listing prices for her principals.)

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-02-06 17:01:17

Sunshine Carpet Cleaning Company

Comment by mgnyc
2008-02-06 17:18:07

sunshine lmao

di-tech is wrong
people are dumb

 
 
Comment by sfv_hopeful
2008-02-06 17:38:11

It would be a hard sell if they were to pay me $350 for listening to a Toll Bro’s talking head for an hour, though for $350, I’d probably do it. $100 for an hour, not so much.

 
Comment by phillygal
2008-02-06 19:17:38

a free one-hour counseling session…

Imagine that, having anyone associated with Bob Toll “counseling” me…

I’d rather eat a dinner prepared by Britney’s ex-manager.

 
Comment by DavidInOpelika
2008-02-06 21:17:32

Hee.

Second prize is a two hour session.

 
Comment by Carbonator
2008-02-06 21:43:24

“… she’s now looking forward to a free one-hour counseling session with a top-notch Toll Bros. selling representative. It’s worth $350.”

I suppose that second prize was a TWO HOUR counselling session, worth $700……

Comment by FutureVulture
2008-02-06 21:57:48

LOL

 
 
 
Comment by Wilson
2008-02-06 16:44:58

“I asked Senator Clinton, ‘As President, what would you do to make housing more affordable in California?’”

“The senator’s answer was, ‘Well, I’m the only candidate in either party who has a specific plan. I will have a moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days to help people work out staying in their homes, and I would freeze interest rates for five years.’”

I laughed so hard, my cubicle neighbors checked to see what was going on!

Comment by Tim
2008-02-06 17:48:39

All the Democrats had to do was put up one halfway decent candidate and they would have had an easy win. What a waste. First we get sons. Now we got a crazy, angry spouse who doesn’t understand economics in the running. What in the hell is next? Will we see a former President’s pool boy? All the choices are just as bad if not worse than what we had before. I can name 15 ppl in my office that would do a better job. It’s just so sad. I’m not saying this as a Repulican. I voted Democrat the last two times. It amazes me what passes as acceptable to ppl.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-06 19:36:11

How could anything be worse than Gore or Kerry/Edwards? Personally, I think Obama and Hillary are both preferable to those insufferable twits. Now even Kerry is blaming the tornadoes on global warming. Does he also wipe his a$$ with one square to save the planet? At least we don’t have to put up with that nonsense from Hillobama. I’d rather have a Wobblie or Trotskyite than have to put up with mentally ill pseudo-scientists.

 
 
Comment by phillygal
2008-02-06 19:28:06

Sorry, Hilary, the Governator had the freeze idea first.

But I think he’ll let you slide. This time.

Comment by BottomFisher
2008-02-06 22:37:21

Governator: Hilliary is just a big copy cat….But me and McPain will walk over her in November….I will run as Vice Presidenator with Mc Pain….hahahahaha!

 
 
 
Comment by shadow7
2008-02-06 16:51:15

If some of you people knew what 557k resale still gets you in Cal you would have to wonder when does the price drop to 120k which is all some of this junk and areas are really worth, if that???

 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-02-06 16:52:00

“Buyers are being targeted, too. Whoever purchases one of two houses in La Verne represented by Century 21 Masters of Glendora gets their choice of owning a new Toyota Prius or having $25,000 slashed off the sale price.”
—————————————————————————

Think a Prius will last 30 years?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-06 16:56:15

Just slash the price!

 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-02-06 17:02:22

La Verne… Glendora… Ahhhhh I feel like I am home again. San Dimas High, class of ‘85. EXCELLENT!!!

Yeah, just slash the flippin’ price.

Comment by OscarDeLaJolla
2008-02-07 07:56:25

San Dimas High School football rules

 
 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-02-06 23:03:04

“Think a Prius will last 30 years?”

No, but if it’s in a new tract it will last longer than the house! :D

 
 
Comment by mgnyc
2008-02-06 16:57:31

ot-sorry

just was watching the nightly business report on pbs

hilary kramer says regarding picking up bargains in this stock selloff

stay away from the homebuilders- some will go out of business
and do not try and catch a falling knife

hey hilary what’s your name on the hbb?

Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-06 18:09:54

HAR!

I’m telling ya MG, the MSM lurks here.

I do not believe in coincidence. Too many “HBB coined phases” are printed in MSM!

And, I don’t have this site bookmarked. I simply type housing bubble on google and Ben’s baby is the number one link! (It’s faster for me to type than search through all my bookmarks).

Leigh ;)

 
 
Comment by Saint Barbara
2008-02-06 16:58:07

On the topic of Hollywood celebrities and the real-estate market, Angelina Jolie, with Brad in tow, was the guest of honor last Friday evening at a Santa Barbara Film Festival “afterparty” hosted by “The Bluffs along the Santa Barbara Coast,” a new 62-unit luxury-home development north of UCSB and south of Bacara Resort. The Bluffs was the marquee sponsor of this year’s festival. Picture Angelina, Brad, and the rest of the party’s rain-soaked guests, all huddled under a party tent set up on a paved cul-de-sac in the middle of an unfinished housing tract. My demented take on all this has been uploaded for inspection at the Santa Barbara Housing Bubble Blog.

Saint Barbara

 
Comment by DebtFree
2008-02-06 17:00:20

“‘Banks are not going to dramatically slash prices and take a huge loss,’ Link said. ‘Banks want to recoup their investment, and that means they will list properties competitively at prices below comparable homes, but certainly not at fire-sale prices.’”

I live in Encino (we rent a great apt), a nice part of the San Fernando Valley.
I’ve been keeping my eye on two nice houses that are in foreclosure/bank owned. The thing is, they’ve both
been sitting on the market since last spring. I can safely say they’ve been empty for 10 months. I see some minor upkeep on both properties but there are never any fliers in the box. I haven’t checked the price for a long, long time. What I am curious about is how long can the banks
afford to have them just sitting there? At some point, why don’t they just slash the price in half to get rid of them?
Doesn’t someone have to pay property tax on these properties. One of the houses was listed for $1,250.000 but they will NEVER get that because a much nicer, much larger home on a much bigger lot just above it is now listed at $999.000. The other house was close to a million too. Both these properties are on the “south side of the Blvd” which is the expensive side of the SFV. My point is, property taxes alone must be close to $1,000 a
month so it must costs the banks a hefty sum to just
let them sit there.

They finished a condo building across from me Oct 07. Not a single unit is selling so they’re going on the auction block. Interesting times.

Comment by waiting_in_la
2008-02-06 17:49:03

Are you near Laurel Cyn and the 101? I’ve been looking at the new one by the gas station everytime I head out to the valley. Usually stop for gas there before boarding the 101 to go west.

Comment by DebtFree
2008-02-06 19:04:21

I’m on White Oak and Ventura. South of 101.

Comment by waiting_in_la
2008-02-06 19:50:07

Cool. Nice neighborhood.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by cassiopeia
2008-02-06 18:27:33

There’s a mystery for you, DebtFree. I live in Westwood and there is a house that was for sale about a year ago. I don’t know if it sold or not, but it’s been sitting empty for a year now, yellow lawn and all (it got a little greener with the recent rains, though). For a while there was some notice from the city stating it was going to be remodeled, but nothing happened. Someone is footing the bill, but I don’t even see a for lease sign. Also, there are two houses for rent on my street and they haven’t been occupied in months. LL’s still asking too much. What gives?

 
Comment by twingirls
2008-02-06 20:35:16

I’m guessing you are at White Oak. There is a building there that is still not even finished and looks like it is being auctioned. I’m in Woodland Hills by Warner Center tons of new condo’s and I don’t see a lot of lights on in them.

 
 
Comment by Brad
2008-02-06 17:01:10

Will the You Walk Away LLC service take an IOU for their $995 fee?

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:17:43

Walk Away Renee

And when I see the sign that points one way
The lot we used to pass by every day

Just walk away Renee
You wont see me follow you back home
The empty sidewalks on my block are not the same
You’re not to blame

From deep inside the tears that I’m forced to cry
From deep inside the pain that I chose to hide

Just walk away Renee
You wont see me follow you back home
Now as the rain beats down upon my weary eyes
For me it cries

Just walk away Renee
You wont see me follow you back home
Now as the rain beats down upon my weary eyes
For me it cries

Your name and mine inside a heart upon a wall
Still finds a way to haunt me, though they’re so small

Just walk away Renee
You wont see me follow you back home
The empty sidewalks on my block are not the same
You’re not to blame

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-02-06 17:03:17

Posted this in BitsBucket, but it’s a Calif anecdote so I feel OK to repeat. Have been watching the price of one Morro Bay house since the beginning of 06, when it was offered at $580K. Over time the wishing price fell to $417K by late 07. Recently it was on MLS for $349K, claiming short sale was likely to be approved. I hear it has been sold to some lady who already owns several houses in MB. In other words, “investors” are still in the game. Since this POS won’t rent out for more than $1000/mo, the investor is a Knife Catcher with a capital K and a capital C, IMO.

Comment by cassiopeia
2008-02-06 18:36:20

Since this POS won’t rent out for more than $1000/mo, the investor is a Knife Catcher with a capital K and a capital C, IMO.

Still, $580 to $349 is a serious haircut, even if it’s falling from ridiculous heights that were not even real at the height of the bubble.

 
 
Comment by Russell A
2008-02-06 17:03:40

“‘There’s usually a waiting list for homes over $20 million,’ says Sloane. ‘Now, it’s slowing down a tiny bit–for the first time in years.’”

Hmm. If only I had known this when I was selling my house in 2005. All I had to do was the raise the price to over $20 million, and I would have had to create a waiting list for potential buyers.

Comment by desmo
2008-02-06 18:59:35

All I had to do was the raise the price to over $20 million, and I would have had to create a waiting list for potential buyers.

And change your name to something like “Russel Crow”.

 
 
Comment by Spucky
2008-02-06 17:10:54

“The Los Angeles-based writer bought two properties in Hancock Park, west of downtown, using no-down, interest-only mortgages in 2006. He paid just over $1 million for both.”
He didn’t “pay” for them which implies that he actually used $. He financed them to the tune of 100%. Why can’t they get it right?

 
Comment by waiting_in_la
2008-02-06 17:11:31

Love the CNN article.

Ben!!! Kudos to you for calling this back in ‘05. I remember you were the first person I ever heard talk about the short sale phenomenon, as well as the first to describe jingle mail.

You said it was popular in the nineties and would come back. Funny how it’s described in the article as a “new term”. Ha! Everything old is new again. Huh?

The LA Daily news article is typical bs. I posted some comments under the name ‘real_estate_in_denial’. Check them out.

Lovely day to everyone here on the hbb, where we marvel at the accuracy of Ben’s crystal ball.

 
Comment by Bubble Butt
2008-02-06 17:23:50

More pain for housing and bank stocks Thursday:

Repub’s shoot down economic stimulus bill in the Senate.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/06/news/economy/stimulus_senate.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008020619

 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 17:24:39

Senate Blocks Expanded U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7KV5FZNOcG0&refer=home

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:30:41

Hey HPP formerly the person known as Luvs_footie!

Missed your posts - What is going on in down under?

Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 17:34:43

Hey there Hoz

just doing a bit of hunkering down.

Interest rate rise…….ML possible downgrade…..hehehe.

But all’s well……..see here………

http://i146.photobucket.com/albums/r253/Torqued713/baghdad-bernanke.jpg

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 17:51:22

So is Australia’s inflation rates dramatic increase a result of being tied in to the Asian economies or as our beloved President Bush said OPEC (instead of APEC) when he was not invited to the conference?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by housing hanky panky
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:04:58

Thanks for the link! Bookmarked it and will read it in its entirety this weekend. I thought you had a minor housing bubble, your bubble is as big as Hong Kongs.

 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 19:17:27

You mean as big as KING KONG?

 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:37:14

Is that what you call it down under, did you see our King Kong?

Or is that how you introduce yourself for a date? Hi, I’m King Kong I play with bubbles. Nice to meet you Ms. Bubbles.

 
 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 17:52:25

Hoz…….one other thing.

I say we’re in a deflationary spiral. What say you?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 18:47:07

In the US, the predominance of the evidence supports massive inflation. There are certain items that suggest deflation (Housing, Equities and other liabilities), but there are many items that are neutral (jobs, US T rates and other non productive items) and there are items that suggest inflation of 6% Plus (PMs, minor metals, coal, oil etc.) and there are items that suggest hyperinflation -100% over 5yrs (food).

I am in the inflationist camp, the Federal Reserve always fights the last major battle. The last major battle was the great depression. There has been tons of documentation showing that if the Federal Reserve had a loose monetary policy, the depression would have ended in 1931. If you think the Federal Reserve is going to tighten then deflation is going to happen.

Mr. Bernanke did his research on the Great depression and is going to open the flood gates. The risk (in my diminished capacity) is the same that bothered Mr. Warren Buffett today. “The U.S. dollar will continue to decline over time unless there is a change in how the trade deficit is handled.” No sh*t Sherlock.

The fear is a rapid collapse, which based on Fed Fund futures projecting a mid February cut of 0.5%, seems more likely.

The one currency you should not be long (beside the Zimbabwe dollar) is the Euro. They have the same problem as the US.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:27:50

Does this stall the measure to increase the conforming loan limit as well?

Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 18:37:06

Hey there GS….ooop’s Prof Bear.

Maybe some just came to their senses, or the bond market is sending a very clear warning.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2008-02-06 20:21:39

good there is no such thing as “stimulus” ever the new deal failed in 37

 
 
Comment by Robert Swirsky
2008-02-06 17:32:05

“He decided to hang on to the unit and hope for a market turnaround. In the meantime, he moved out with his wife and baby, and they lease the condo to a tenant for about $1,000 a month less than they pay for the interest-only option on their monthly mortgage payment, while also paying their rent elsewhere

What an idiot! He’s only paying i/o. He should have sold it and taken the 30K loss, instead of getting deeper and deeper into debt with each passing month.

 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 17:39:35

One for the stock market people.

Louise Yamada

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=641061031&play=1

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-02-06 17:58:44

“Flee!”, she cried.

Those are some ugly charts.

 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-06 17:41:41

Everytime they mention an emergency fed cut I hear “triple root canal”.
Everytime Hillary says raise tax and freeze the tease I roll up in a ball.
I did go to Target and I got a hose, bucket and extention chord.
26 bucks cash and a shopper’s high to boot!
Tomorrow is the vet. Bringing cash.

Comment by reuven
2008-02-06 19:00:32

I wouldn’t mind a tax increase if it worked like this:

EVERYONE who pays taxes needs to add 1% of gross next year to the total taxes owed regardless of income.

However, Hillary simply wants to raise my taxes. I calculated how much she wants to raise them and it comes to an additional $45,000. That’s just not fair.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 19:20:27

Would you agree to a tax increase on everyone except the poor? I don’t know how to define “poor”, but I think it would be more fair because those are the people who are disproportionately hurt by illegal immigration and offshoring, while the rich have disproportionately benefited.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-02-07 06:44:29

The “poor” actually need to pay more (than zero).
That is how we will get into the unrecoverable death spiral: when more than 50% of the country pay no taxes. Absolutely no incentive to fix the deficit then.

Other Peoples Money.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:41:13

The total amount that the Senator wishes to raise taxes is 45B, whoopdeefriggindoo. That will really impact the debt.

Under her husbands aegis more than that was given to her friends.

I do not like any politicians. I really dislike Senator Clinton.

 
Comment by yogurt
2008-02-06 20:11:30

You’re bitching because your taxes might go up 45K? The average American doesn’t even earn 45k!

If you make that kind of dough, why don’t you just pack off to Monaco, give up your US citizenship, and you’ll have nothing to complain about.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 22:57:46

Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. I’d be so lucky to owe 45k in taxes. Just think, pay taxes to pay for a half a bomb in Iraq, or buy a Hummer.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by reuven
2008-02-06 23:27:49

Because I like our country?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by spike66
2008-02-06 17:56:14

International, but building illegally, fraudulent deeds, and more.

“In the past two decades, thousands of Britons have moved to Spain in search of a place in the sun. But now property sales are plummeting, following the news that many of the expats’ homes were built illegally, and demolition crews are moving in.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/spain/article/0,,2253110,00.html

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-06 20:59:36

Wow! But that’s Spain - just imagine what our own expat equity locusts will run up against in Costa Rica or Baja California. No real sympathy for them on my part - but very curious situation nonetheless.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-06 18:11:25

“It typically takes three years of a spotless payment record after a bankruptcy before credit scores recover enough for someone to think about buying a home again, he said. After abandoning a mortgage, a person may be able to buy a new house in two years or less.”

Personally, I’m appalled and insulted by this. Perhaps it’s another case of hand-wringing but these are the idiots that legitimate buyers have had to compete with the last 5 years. Now, those legitimate buyers continue to wait while this unfolds and they can once again afford something. How many lives were put on hold due to this.

I want these jackasses to pay. You want to walk away? Fine. But at least ban them from buying for, say, 15 years…at least.

And let them “eat” Joshua Tree.

…still steaming after reading that one….

/rant off…

Comment by FP
2008-02-06 18:29:48

I would say 95% of these FBs will never buy a house again. With the tightened requirements being set today and more down payment. It will be tough….

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 18:54:56

That same story gets retold. Banks will do anything that might give them a dollar. Then atone later. “I promise I’ll never do it again.” About once every 15 -20 years sounds about correct. The last major bank screw up -1986, the American taxpayers are still paying for.

 
 
 
Comment by clone12
2008-02-06 18:15:40

Like it or not, taxes wil have to be raised. The war doesn’t exactly paying for itself.

We can pretend there some magic tax cut Laffer dust out there that will mircaculously wipe out our national debt, but the truth is that it’s just voodoo economics. I personally would pay off the debt now than pay it off later.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:19:35

“…taxes will have to be raised. The war doesn’t exactly paying for itself.”

There is another option besides explicit taxation.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:21:08

Actually there are a number of other options:

1) Produce more stuff our trade partners want and export it to them;

2) Inflate;

3) Devalue.

Comment by clone12
2008-02-07 10:38:42

Seinorage inflation is also taxation. The fact that your real income declines by the amount of inflation is the amount you more or less gor “taxed”. No thanks, I rather be taxed explicitly than to have a stealth tax that comes with the added bonus of disrupting the entire market economy.

As for option 1) I am all for that. But wishing for it does not fiscal policy make. And besides, it’s not as if we adjust our export volume with respects to the natioanl budget deficit- “Hey look, Clinton ran a surplus this year, I say we sell fewer 747’s to Thailand!”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-06 19:02:11

Then there is the route taken by every hopelessly endebted country in history; default. We haven’t even paid for WW II. I am sure that negative savings US is going to change colors and pay all this off now - ha!

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 19:13:57

I don’t know. There has been a lot of talk and some action in Congress recently regarding PB’s option 1. I think there’s still hope yet.

Comment by Mo Money
2008-02-06 19:42:38

I’d love to hear what those items are that we think we can produce at a competitive price. My own company has to do all of it’s final manufacturing overseas to keep costs low enough.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-02-06 21:48:07

Inflate, Devalue, and Default

The three bean repudiation salad coming up for breakfast, lunch, and dinner on America’s
financial plate.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:16:21

“…feels he overpaid for his Spanish-style Hollywood Hills home, which has a pool, a separate gym and stunning views. He bought the house in January 2006 for $6.2 million. He sold it last December for $5.7 million.”

What, pray tell, makes him think he overpaid?

Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-06 19:41:13

I don’t know; if you bought a yacht for $6.2 million and sold it two years later for $5.7 million that would sound quite reasonable/normal. Why should an overly fancy house be different? Sounds like he neither particularly overpaid nor underpaid to me.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-06 21:04:23

Even for a fancy house, $250K p.a. is a lot of rent!!!

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-06 23:06:05

Yeah, think of the value of bragging rights. Who wants to say they bought a piddling 5.7M dingy?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 18:17:39

“I will have a moratorium on home foreclosures for 90 days to help people work out staying in their homes, and I would freeze interest rates for five years.”

Is it too late for priced out bitter renters to get in on this deal?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:32:43

If it is a smart renter, the renter should be laughing to the bank. No bitter renters over a rate freeze. All it does is keep somebody in an overpriced mortgage for additional years. I’ll loan you 1 Million dollars to buy a house (provided I can buy the house for $500,000) at 4.75% interest. :>) or is that being to greedy? How about 3% interest? Any takers?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-06 20:20:26

Your post reinforces my concern that well-meaning bailout measures (e.g. hike the GSE conforming limit north of $700K and hope for the best) may only serve to provide for govt-sponsored knife catching.

 
 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-06 19:01:46

For the people that like to talk about bail-outs………The big one.

From the people who gave us…….”It’s all contained”

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080206/regulators_bond_risk.html?.v=1

Comment by Big V
2008-02-06 19:11:24

There is not enough money floating around to stave off this crash.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-02-06 19:18:17

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_8187963

“I’ve obviously had to eat my ’soft landing’ words,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, referring to a refrain from the statewide housing forecast she delivered in October.

And she’s still wrong………

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 19:45:27

I hope somebody force fed her! Not to painfully though, nothing worse than a Joshua tree.

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-02-06 19:35:56

I think you could substitute US for UK in this article and not notice the difference.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aKoU8nDFRlG8&refer=home

 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 20:08:23

Hey Ex Nev Mtge,

Isn’t this standard for any residential loan/purchase app?

“Do you presently own your primary residence?
- Is your home currently listed for sale? Or, are you in contract ?
- What is the asking price? Who is your real estate agency?
- RE Agent name? What’s their phone number?”

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-06 20:05:00

Medico Professional Linen is closing down and laying off 210 employees on March 15 at 1705 S. Hooper Ave. in Los Angeles.
(announced 2/05/2008 MA notice)

Alameda, CA
The Alameda Hospital will have 15 fewer employees in an effort to reduce its losses for the rest of the fiscal year. Through the first half of the 2007-08 fiscal year, the hospital has lost about $1.5 million, partly as a result of a shift from acute to long-term care volume. Also contributing to the loss is a “take back” of $500,000 in claims that Medicare says could have been performed on an outpatient basis. In most cases the positions include management and support staff and does not include direct patient care givers.
(confirmed action)
Contra Costa Times - January 25, 2008

More than a coincidence. Just ripple effect?

Hospitals and not for profits are getting clobbered.

Comment by pismoclam
2008-02-06 21:31:08

Hospitals in trouble? Get rid of the illegal aliens! Nuf said.

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-06 20:19:56

“And now skipping out on a home is easier, thanks to the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007. Previously, if a bank sold a foreclosed home for less than the mortgage balance and it forgave the difference, the borrower had to pay tax on that difference as if it were income. Now the IRS will ignore it.”

“‘That’s going to help a lot of people,’ said Mike Gray, a San Jose accountant.”

Anyone wonder how fast this loophole will be closed once the gubbermint realizes this new law was a huge mistake that’s encouraging millions to walk away free?

Comment by Price Doubt Forever
2008-02-06 22:39:54

Not quite free yet…the IRS may ignore it, but right now they still owe California state income tax on the forgiveness. Apparently there’s a Bill pending to change that.

http://www.ftb.ca.gov/forms/mortgage.shtml

 
 
Comment by Esoteric
2008-02-06 20:46:58

Why is that pundits/politicians always think that the way to stop a crisis like this is to use the exact same methods that got us into this mess?

How can Hillary so fundamentally misunderstand the question that was posed to her: “How will you make housing more affordable?”

How exactly does allowing MORE unqualified borrowers to purchase over-priced housing make housing more affordable?

 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-02-06 22:18:35

Snap quiz and answer!

Simplicio: “Is it inflation or deflation we face, Maestro?”

Maestro: “A veritable combination of both; minor and major movements within a single chorus lamentable”

Simplicio: ” But hasn’t this already occurred, Maestro? The housing values falling and the PM prices rising? What about the future?”

Maestro: ” The future? Let me enterain you…”

http://tinyurl.com/2m8cp6

 
Comment by Jeff Dinkin
2008-02-06 22:42:33

I’m not understanding how he can sue claiming the house was not as big or private as the agent said. Slash is not Stevie Wonder. Did he not SEE the house before he plopped down $6.2 Million?

He’s lucky he didn’t have to “SLASH” his price more than $0.5 Million to sell it…..

Former Guns N’ Roses guitarist Slash (also known as Saul Hudson) feels he overpaid for his Spanish-style Hollywood Hills home, which has a pool, a separate gym and stunning views. He bought the house in January 2006 for $6.2 million. He sold it last December for $5.7 million. Slash is suing his former real estate agent, claiming the house was neither as big nor as private as the agent claimed. The case is ongoing in California Superior Court.

Comment by Neil
2008-02-08 02:02:39

Welcome to the Jungle!

Oh… that could be a fun case to watch…

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post