Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For February 7, 2008
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FED Wrestles…. What to do, what to do? Well it seems ‘Ol Ben and his buds may have painted themselves into a corner. The ’street’ is expecting a cut next go round. Funny how our current financial course has come as a surprise to so many big brains. Fear not, it’s all contained they just aren’t sure what to do with it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0630384520080206
Why do I feel like I’ve heard all this before?
I seem to recall, not long ago, Wall Street screaming “Cut! Cut!” and the Fed saying “Well, now, wait a second…we’re the fed. and we have to watch inflation, blah, blah, blah”
Next thing you know Cramer has an anuerysm on national television and the Fed cuts rates.
Ho-hum
That fool was on CNBC this morning as a Tool Box guest host. He is an embarrassment to humanity. He was laughing that this was a country “by the corporation, of the corporation and for the corporation”. He was laughing like a chimp. I hope he gets cancer of the throat.
Yep, he’s a scumbag.
Most stocks he touts spike and then crash. It’s a curse.
Watch NLY mortgage. I bet it pops today and then crashes. It’s around $20 now. He was kissing the CEO’s ass last night on the show talking about how great they are and how low interest rates will benefit them. Let’s watch this stock to see what it does.
He was also wrong on NYX, FSLR, RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, GRMN, RITEAID…. The list goes on and on. I am shocked that CNBC even keeps him on the air.
He (along with others of his ilk), has cultivated a group of shorts that cause these pumps and dumps. That’s all the market is anymore. It’s not a place to invest your money long term; it’s a place to day trade. They’re crashing the stock market just as speculators crashed real.
estate. Not to mention he’s bi-polar.
Wah ha ha. “Tool Box”
The Cheerleaders were really negative for a change on Cable CNBC Business News this morning . I guess WalMart had lower than expected earnings and poor Bear Stearns has serious civil and criminal investigations going on that are reaching the top of the food chain at that firm .
2,4,6,8
Television is pretty much 2nd rate.
You got that right!
I go to great lengths to NOT be one of those people that thinks they are superior because they have kicked the TV habit. I still have sub-basic cable because it only costs me $2.50 a month with the discount I get because I get internet through comcast, but I often go a month without looking at it.
I’m even thinking about getting rid of THAT because I no longer get cspan 2. Cspan and UWTV(University of Washington TV - great lectures sometimes) are about all there is for me.
I don’t feel superior in any way - it’s just a choice. However it is a choice that I would highly reccommend to all.
I did take the time to flip around the dial just to see if I could tell any difference with there being this writers strike on, and I have to say, I honestly couldn’t tell the difference.
Same old meaningless crap everywhere that seems designed to normalize judging a person’s worth mostly by their level of apparent material success. Disney Nation©®™. Trust me, you won’t be a better person, but you’ll be way happier without it.
I watch a little tube’, just to figure out what sort of read meat they’re trying to feed us.
OT or not. an observation.
1st
tv has mostly been crap and alot since the last 5-10 yrs or more..with few exceptions, PBS one of them,
history channel etc.
I think that because of the writers strike- TV is at reruns,selling stuff, and just plain crap / there is nothing to watch for J6p and family, more people are paying attention
(albeit a small but growing grp) to what is actually happening in politics and housing etc.
There is virtually nothing in the way to distract folks from finally Seeing it all.
Maybe it is something bigger than that,writers strike, but seriously, I think people are starting (I hope) to pay attention.
Then again, maybe not. ;
Then again, the new season of “Lost” just started. “Nip/Tuck” is better than ever. “Jericho” will be back next week and “Battlestar Gallactica” (the best show on television) returns in March. And, for new sci-fi, “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles” isn’t half bad.
“Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles”
Starring California, as Sarah Connor…
OMG! How can you not watch AMERICAN IDOL! I’m rooting for Danny Noriega! He’s the next Sanjaya, if I every saw one!
Oh come on, nothing to watch?
The new pseudo-reality home repair comedy series looks vaguely interesting. First episode: crazed home improvisers invade Paula Abdul’s home to “improve” something.
Maybe I’m too forgiving but I’ve heard him say that before and, just based on what he says about helping his viewers make money, he says that as a matter of fact to be dealt with. I don’t necessarily interpret that he takes that as a good thing, only a fact to be considered in the stock game.
Who knows…I don’t buy and sell stocks. I occasionally watch cramer b/c he’s somewhat entertaining. He seems like a pretty straight-forward guy, as much as that determination could be made by watching someone on TV a few minutes a day every now and then.
“He seems like a pretty straight-forward guy”
About as straight as a corkscrew - but yes - very entertaining. As is especially the case when his eyes bug out like one of those squishy stress relief dolls. That’s a marketing idea for CNBC - a Cramer stress relief doll - give it a good squeeze everytime you lose money!
Are you ready for having your pockets picked?
http://tinyurl.com/32vadl
It’s funny to watch her foolish wealthy followers put their own heads on the chopping blocks.
I went to a private college with a 20K+ tuition and a full half the student body was not on financial aid.
Most of the kids on financial aid dressed in sort of a middle class way. You could spot the richest students because most of them dressed like a mad dog attacked attacked them on the way back from goodwill.
I had a enough conversations with students for whom it was a given that they attended a boarding high school to convince me that some of those who inherit money have a real guilt/control complex about it.
I’m not sure if that attitude is better or worse than “I’ve got mine, screw you” attitude. It’s nice that they care about the world’s inequities. On the other hand, the guilt/control issue does tend to lead to very natural “the world would be a better place if everyone had the same amount of money” patterns of thought. To me that attitude is pretty naive, especially after history has pretty much proven that you really can’t make communism or any true extreme of socialism work.
I had a enough conversations with students for whom it was a given that they attended a boarding high school to convince me that some of those who inherit money have a real guilt/control complex about it.
You know this is a cliche, right? Family money tends to last 3 generations: 1 generation earns it, the next gen feels guilty and often turns to philanthropy, and the final gen will piss it away with a sense of entitlement.
I think it was Carnegie that said: You should leave enough money for your children so that they can do something, but not so much that they can do nothing.
I think that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet agree with Carnegie.
Their kids won’t get much.
You know this is a cliche, right?
Nope - I’m a little sheltered myself. *grin* Just thinkin that the 2nd generation experience of guilt explains why a bunch of rich people would clap when Ms. Clinton tells them that tax hikes are on the way!
Two words: Cruella DeVille
So a coworker recently quit. Sad to see him leave, but he just didn’t feel like working anymore. After he left, I found out his wife’s family was trying to give her 2 million dollars or something. But she said if they did, she would give it all to charity. He said they’ve gotten their living standards well below the poverty level and can live without supporting the consumeristic society. They protested during black Friday, and attend a number of protests. They do have a house (I think?) but a bunch of people live there and they tend to help rehabilitate homeless people. Different strokes for different folks! I think it’s pretty amazing. They want to live by bartering work for food and such IIRC.
It’s about control and Power over the masses.
Like David Cee, for instance?
yep! I would have enjoyed saying it myself but I pick on him too much. Better to have someone else do so from time to time.
“insufferable arrogance” says it all.
Fake NYrker, fake southerner and we get to see it on national TV for the next four years…
She’s a fake, fake.
“She’s a fake, fake”.
It all about power with the Clintons. Power, Power, power!! There wasn’t ever any ideological driven agenda with bill at all, and i imagine Hillary would go the same route. Her early Marxist flirtations are over, and she is quite the capitalist opportunist as she showed when she made $100,000 in cattle futures off a $1000 investment.
BTW for all U RE experts has anyone done any research on Clintons role in Whitewater?
“BTW for all U RE experts has anyone done any research on Clintons role in Whitewater?”
The Wall Street Journal laid it all out in excruciating detail many years ago. I’m sure you could get a reprint off their web site.
Socialism is understandably attractive to the masses. Problem is it always has and always will fail in the long run. We the U.S. have been heading in that direction for a long, long time. I for one see no way to divert course unfortunately. Empires fall!
The campaigns are rolling into Texas now. Ya’ll don’t want us deciding who’s gonna win, do you? Heh heh heh.
The Morning Snooze recommends that we vote for Huckabee. That poor slob, Romney, can’t get traction anywhere. I would have thought the neocons who run things around here would have gotten an endorsement for him.
The evang movement politically, is so over.
Romney can’t even get the evangelical vote because mormons are cultists, according to them. They don’t even like Catholics. And don’t get them started on Unitarians!
“The unconscious sends all sorts of vapors, odd beings, terrors, and deluding images up into the mind - whether in dream, broad daylight, or insanity; for the human kingdom, beneath the floor of the comparatively neat little dwelling that we call our consciousness, goes down into unsuspected Aladdin caves.”
Joseph Campbell
Speaking of evangelicals, I heard on the news yesterday that my buddy, Ted Haggard (see
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe-XSItxhCs )
quit restoration! I wonder if he threw in the towel on the whole “hetero” thing or just got tired of having the other hyprcrites breathing down his neck…
Sad group to pick from on both sides, IMO. I would guess that it will get down to Hilbilary VS. McPain. Huckleberry and Mitt are about done. Obahama will be a thorn in Hils azz a while longer.
“I would guess that it will get down to Hilbilary VS. McPain.”
I’m expecting any day now to hear all sorts of hyperventilating that the reason we’ve got Hillary and McWho is because of their positions on scamnasty, and the “power” of a certain voting block. The MSM will of course wait until both candidates are “formally” nominated to bloviate about this. It’s so predictable, it makes me want to heave.
Gotta love it - illegals everywhere and war without end. Such choices!
But isn’t Ms Clinton’s finances for campaigning being frozen for a time, last night the “shows” said her top people were not taking more $.
THAT is why there should be no unlimited campaigning funding. It should all be Just 6 dollars.org. and complete transparency on who is giving.
OR have complete finance reform in terms of campaign funds.
Heck, I want to run for President and see if MY ideas get traction. Why does it always have to be the same wealthy schmucks that run for office. rhetorical
“Ya’ll don’t want us deciding who’s gonna win, do you? Heh heh heh.”
When I saw the Spanish vote threw it to Hillary in Florida and Cali, I kind of thought TX would just go the same.
Carrie: don’t get me started. I’ve been accused on here before of being racist.
Just last week, my mother could not get an ICU bed after falling into a Diabetic Coma, and because I stated it was the illegals, my sister tells me I am xenophobic. This is in Los Angeles mind you, one of the epicenters of the invasion.
“Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada”
“For the race everything. For those outside the race, nothing.”
Hi, my nam is tab and I’m considered hispanic. Pleased to meet you all*.
* Just so you all know that not all so-called hispanics are evil America traitors. Some of us didn’t show up yesterday.
Hey, I’m down wit La Raza…I have a message for them even.
We welcome you with open arms into our warm and inviting county. We wish the same high standard of living and access to all modern amenities that the people of your raza have enjoyed in their home nation.
Please, spread the goodness all over Norteamérica. We would like some more of that “todo” you have shared with your own ‘raza” so we can eliminate once and for all the horrifying “nada” we US citizens have had to endure all these nasty years.
I must excuse myself now, to attend to my Spanish lesson:
escuche y repita:
yo no soy marinero, soy el capitan, soy capitan, soy capitan
tab, please to meet you too.
I know that all are not as you call them but unfortunately the majority of Hispanic are. I don’t hold you personally responsible but I won’t ignore the fact that Hispanics work as a race politically, socially & culturally. If they/you can do that then so can whites. LaRaza, Mecha and many other political & social groups( not by themselves) work toward displacing and wholesale changing of America. They collectively work as a race to do so.
I hope you are not suggesting that we should ignore this threat? Why should we want to do this? Allow a wholesale invasion of our country, our way of life & culture and communities/families?
Just to clarify my statement, my reptile brain seems to remember NBC showing that Hispanics voted 70% w/Hil, 18% Obama in California exit polls. If other groups were more evenly split, that would have pushed it toward Hillary in my mind.
Sorry if it sounded racist but its pretty obvious that block did vote in unison. In politics 70% is usually considered a rout, is it not? Simply stating a measurable fact. (See Evangelicals Elections 2000, 2004)
As a Cuban, I can only hope for a quicker death to Fidel. Raul will not make it and the generals that will be left in power are more Capitalist than most venture Capitalist here. I will take out my Cuban passport (saved from when I came to the US at 6 years of age) and move to Cuba. I will then take out a harp and sing poems under a Cuban royal palm tree, lamenting the US demise.
probably late news, but Romney has suspended campaign.
Wow.
What a shame… the whole “mitt” gimmick was pretty catchy. Anyone see Jon Stewart’s spin on that? Here it is in case you missed it.
http://tinyurl.com/32xtgp
Romney is gone, at least according to my sources…
Empires usually fall because they overextend themselves militarily, not because of socialism. Ask the Brits, French, Spanish, Scandinavians and most other Europeans if they are better off with socialism or with empire.
Having family(generations)in Germany I can say without doubt that the socialized health care part of the equation does not function very well, especially for the aged. So get ready to enjoy the road we are traveling down.
“Capricorn 15’s. Born 2244. Enter the Carousel. This is the time of renewal.”
Oh, that’s good, it’s never too early in the day for a Logan’s Run reference
Capricorn 15’s - ok, not much you can do there. But boy would it ever suck to be a Capricorn29 - missed it by ONE day!
“Ask the Brits, French, Spanish, Scandinavians and most other Europeans if they are better off with socialism or with empire.”
That’s because they benefitted from our empire (NATO) as does Japan. If the E.U. ever tries to carry the load the U.S. has - it will implode.
Note: This is not an endorsement of postwar U.S. foriegn policy. At the same time it is clear that the Europeans gave up the driver’s seat in 1914 and have been passengers ever since.
They have been painful backseat drivers while we (the US) chauffeur them around in our delux vehicle.
Ask the Brits, French, Spanish, Scandinavians and most other Europeans if they are better off with socialism or with empire.
While you are right that these countries are better off with socialism (combined with neocolonialism, I would be say, but lets save the Franz Fanon for later), there is a different social contract at work. In Britain, for example, commonly-held lands were put into the hands of elites with the understanding that the elites would put the resources to better use, and in return would subsidize the poor indefinitely. No such deal is at work in the US, except for certain treaties with Native Americans.
Empires usually fall because they overextend themselves militarily, not because of socialism. Ask the Brits, French, Spanish, Scandinavians and most other Europeans if they are better off with socialism or with empire.
All of those societies still exist. England went dark grey in the 1940s and freed up its economics in the 1980s to a degree similar to what the U.S. did the same decade - Thatcher and Reagan.
Time and time again I have to remind my fellow doom and gloomers that it is untrue that empires die. England’s still alive, but not as powerful. You are either dead or you are not dead.
Why must people bring their political trolling here? Did Hillary make you buy a house in late 2005? The linked article talks about using money for the common good. In this context that probably means paying the bills for the war we have been fighting for many years now. Economically this is much the same as the last time we got drawn into guns and butter madness for a war we didn’t feel like paying for. It is telling that the same folks who want the US to be a global cop claim to be against socialism when it comes time to pay for their latest attempt and empire building. I don’t like Hillary either, but for me her brazen lack of judgement is more than enough for me. There is no need to go making up pretend socialist enemies, and such behavior is unkind, un-Christian, and un-American.
I am un-kind and I am un-Christian. But I am certainly not un-American. Read up on the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence.
I have no problem with the super rich paying the same marginal rates that the middle is stuck with. Let them pay for illegals heathcare.
Are you ready for having your pockets picked?
Don’t worry about that, it’s all campaine rhetoric designed to grab the far left votes away from Obama. Once she gets in office the Clintonista ’s will reward their weathy contributers with perks, pork and loopholes. Clintonista’s are an avaricious , capitalistic and power grabbing bunch same as the Bush gang. Wall street will be rewarded as well. Just the average dumbed down masses will be blindsided by the Hilter- like agiprop spin bites coming from billary. Though she dosen’t have the persuasive rhetorical charm of her hubby she inherited the same campaine machinery as bill and will run the same playbook- run left during the primaries and then veer center/right during the presidential run.
The Clintonians are about as interested in helping the poor masses as Bushco.
I recall that during Bubba’s tenure that taxes were raised on the rich. I recall an article about Michael Eisner (then CEO of Disney and a Clinton supporter) exercising hundreds of millions of dollars in stock options before the higher rates took effect.
Agree, Peter. That’s why I voted for Obama. Unfortunately it was in Florida and doesn’t count.
Hefty Write-Down Charges Drive D.R. Horton to Post 1st-Quarter Loss, Revenue Drops Sharply
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080207/earns_d_r_horton.html
Naturally on the news their stock is up 5%.
Apparently the stock of the homebuilders now will not go down until they actually declare bankruptcy. Everyone will then be “Oh my gosh!!!!” in surprise.
I disagree. They are the current “pump target”…. They have gotten the run-up and are now looking to lure the fools into the baited trap.
Look, Cramer has been talking about them being a buy. Upgrade at Banc of America.
They are pulling in the fools now.
Should only be a couple weeks before they crash again.
Sounds like you’re agreeing more than disagreeing.
I don’t understand who is buying these homebuilder stock either, it makes no scence, it’s a pump and dump without a doubt, when they colapse what will cramer say then, sorry fed did’nt cut rates to 0 quick enough…
http://tinyurl.com/286r4u
I would have thought the Dutch would be ashamed of the Tulip bubble.
Now I’ve seen everything. An Island the shape of a tulip? That idiot thought of that one?
That=what…
coffee….mmmm
the plan for a tulip-formed island has already been ruled out by government; no way this is going to happen. There are some other proposals for new islands that might slip through though. One of the better proposals is to build islands that will - over many years - add more sand to the existing coast and gradually strengthen the coastal defense line.
Also note (not clear from article) that the people who propose these new islands (from political parties that are strongly intertwined with the Dutch RE mob) say the island could be used for anything (industry, agriculture, leisure, nature) EXCEPT housing. Just to make sure Dutch home prices keep rising …
If it hasn’t been posted yet, Mr. Buffett talks about toxic kool-aid and poetic justice:
http://tinyurl.com/3cnzjx
S&P Overhaul…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/cff588b0-d4e4-11dc-9af1-0000779fd2ac.html
The problem is they needed to downgrade ABK and MBIA but won’t because of mounting political pressure.
That’s ludicrous. If the stock is a crap stock, it should be rated accordingly.
how can they get away with not downgrading them? that confuses me to no end!!
You are so naive.
what they claim is the worlds largest equipment auction. Fueled by the housing bust. If you do drive by there it is quite the sight.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/columnists/orl-miket0708feb07,0,2075449.column
We saw that field of hardware on our recent trip across the state. The article portrays it accurately; it is immense. Last time I saw such a gathering was in a field off US 15 in southern Pennsylvania around 1993 or ‘94. That one wasn’t nearly as large.
That’s why I’m still short CAT.
That’s why I’ve been way long RBA for a way long time.
Dangit! I tried finding auction stocks about a year ago to buy - didn’t see that one. Their climb has been amazing! Hate to buy after such a run-up - but it’s worth looking at.
I used to get their flyers after I was hunting a 60kw generator set to run my little clubhouse data center (I since got rid of it). I saw their facility down in Florida before the bubble, I hate to say it but they had a large amount of equipment even during the boom times. Perhaps it was older equipment then, now it’s the newer equipment.
My wife and I went on a 3 hour cruise, a 3 hour cruise…
We went on a road trip yesterday in the Central Valley of California, trying to squeeze as many new homebuilder sites in, as possible.
The corporate homebuilders are now hep to what makes a unoccupied brand new house look like one, and we noticed they many are putting in cheap blinds, to not allow prying eyes to see any further, into the abyss of unsold merchandise.
“Free” in-ground pools are a given, now.
The most interesting sites we saw, were the little guy builders.
They don’t bother trying to hide, how dire things are…
There was one that had pads for 24 houses, all compacted w/ electricity in, along with a dozen completed houses, each of which had a century 21 realty out sign in front, pleading for somebody to buy it.
Nothing screams desperation like being to the point where you try and get a realtor to sell your newly constructed houses for you, because you’ve exhausted every other avenue.
A sign out in front of the site proudly told of where the financing came from, a local bank.
This can only end badly…
I was driving in the hilly boondocks on Sunday, in an area that was just off a major highway and ~1 hour commute from a medium-sized city. I saw an undeveloped development of ~15 building lots for sale. There was a small stone wall with the sign, paved cul-de-sacs, little flags to mark the lots, and ONE fugly cookie house. The place was obviously meant for spec McMansions (complete with HOA — in the boondocks!)
This is SO flippin SAD. Here are these empty building lots barely big enough for a medium house and a square-foot garden. Meanwhile, it was surrounded on all sides by empty countryside dotted with plenty of boondock homesteads — you know, 5 acres with a double-wide on them. WHO in their right mind would buy, one of these tiny lots when they could probaby walk up and buy the REAL countryside and build what they want?
But a huge McMansion is needed - where else are you going to put the crud that you buy with money you don’t have to impress people you don’t like?
As for gardening and nature, well any Realtor will tell you trees are the enemy of the beautiful McMansion dystopia of the future!
I saw the same thing in the middle of nowhere Delaware about 40 miles south of Dover while driving on my way to visit friends at the beach. Half built McMansion tracts in what were corn fields a year ago and a 30 minute drive from ANYTHING. Its complete insanity and it obviously happened EVERYWHERE. We are so dee4ply screwed as a country if we could allow such stupidity not only to occur but to thrive (for a little while)
I’m long on Schadenfreude.Inc
Saw that same stuff in the Hill country northeast of Austin.
Empty pads in devs with tiny stone gate entrys, blacktopped street and signs everywhere for sale. 1-2 houses built.
Coming from CA, we called and got prices of lots, cheap by CA standards, but 2 houses per entire developement, pads everywhere and that was in August, so I speculate that no more are built.
““Free” in-ground pools are a given, now.”
Yeah but I don’t want a pool. Operating costs associated with electric motors and chemicals eat into my revenue stream.
So now what?
Value added tax
“Clean Fill Wanted” sign?
Of course that doesn’t really help you with the “Free” part.
Just make sure it’s got nice round corners, and then buy a nice skate-board.
“A sign out in front of the site proudly told of where the financing came from, a local bank.”
I wanted to ask the blog about this local bank angle. There is a poster on our pretty much inactive local RE blog who argues that the world credit problems aren’t an issue here because liquidity is fine among the small local (more conservative) banks. Someone from outside Atlanta was on MSNBC yesterday also trying to say that their local banks weren’t experiencing any problem and in fact had plenty of capital to lend. Any comments on that argument?
I think only the small homebuilders were financed by local banks, but look at my example above…
The bank in question is out a few million at a minimum, and this was just one of many dozens of little guy homebuilder gone wrong stories in just one city, in Central California.
can you provide the name? i keep my money in small local banks here in bakersfield.
ANd little local banks are real conservative on lending:
DTI - 28-31% of gross income for mortgage, taxes &insurance
36-41% of gross for Mortgage etc plus all fixed debts
Credit scores well over 700
Documented income and assets (like 2-3 years in a job)
And -gasp - downpayments of 10-12%
The banks will be just fine. My local banker checks the implode-meter website which shows the list of collapsing lenders and jsut laughs at the stupid and greedy lenders who have gone under.
Oh yeah - an no ARMs, and no 0 down and no interest-only….
Banks fine - 7 out of 10 prospective borrowers sunk and there go the buyers back out the door with no way to buy.
The bank I referenced in terms of financing, was Bank Of The Sierra, a little bank with perhaps 2 dozen branches in Central California.
How many other wide elephants do they have hidden under the rug?
aladinsane,
If you don’t mind me asking, where do you live? General area is ok. My wife works for a small bank. She does commercial loans, and has obviously seen a dramatic change. The small banks definatly have sctrict standards, but even small losses hurt even more than it would a large bank.
We live in the Central Valley…
We live northeast of Sacramento in the foothills. I went to school in the Fresno area and still have lots of family in the valley from Merced to Visalia.
DTI - 28-31% of gross income for mortgage, taxes &insurance
36-41% of gross for Mortgage etc plus all fixed debts
Credit scores well over 700
Documented income and assets (like 2-3 years in a job)
And -gasp - downpayments of 10-12%
that should narrow the buyer pool a bit
i am fine but not even looking at this point
Let’s just hope the ripples of this economic tsunami dwindle down before reaching these small banks. If home equity evaporates everywhere then everywhere people will be underwater.
So the small banks really are independent of the overall credit contraction?
I say this because the Syracuse area is really not experiencing any spiking foreclosure rates (per numbers on NYfed site).
Will the general lack of SFH specuvestors in our communities be the savior of local liquidity? Just trying to get my head around the facts. No flaming pls.
Many small local banks are actually subsidiaries of large, publicly traded, multi-bank holding companies. I suspect those are the banks that made ADC loans on orders from corporate HQ.
I also suspect that small, privately-held banks stayed away from the risk stuff. Typically, small, privately-held banks have over 50% of their assets in government securities and Fed Funds. Loans for such banks may be only 25% of total assets and they’re the type that almost always get repaid. For some such banks investment in FNMA/FHLMC/GNMA PCs exceed originated loans.
The smaller banks do more spec homes and construction loans. They are defaulting at an alarming rate. Wife says they are constantly changing the requirements to qualify. Building a strip mall? Better come in with better than 50% of it already leased and be prepared to show your net worth at close to 50% of the total loan amount. We drive by half built commercial real estate building and she says “yah, we declined to give them a loan, they stopped building 3 months ago and defaulted from XY Bank”.
Small local banks lend to small local businesses. Good luck with that.
I just want you to know that after the “3 hour cruise” line my brain was trying to make the rest of your post match the rythm of the rest of that song as I read…
Hehe, I got caught in that as well
Nothing screams desperation like being to the point where you try and get a realtor to sell your newly constructed houses for you, because you’ve exhausted every other avenue.
Here in Loveland mom-n-pop builders always list their spec homes with realtors. Only the big guys like Lennar, etc., would have their own sales offices.
Why’d the ones I saw, bother having sales offices?
Back in the S&L bust days I remember SFD developments in Texas that looked like cemeteries. Roads, utilities, and grass all in but no houses. Just the utility boxes standing up like tombstones.
The recession talk is starting to sound a lot like the housing downturn talk. It’ll be over in a quarter or two, we’ll come back strong in the second half. Lots of faith being placed in the string pullers - the willingness of banks to lend, businesses and consumers to borrow.
Oh, and by the way, while you went to the bathroom, the projected budget deficit just went back up from 1% to over 2% of GDP. Hard to see a “one and done” downturn.
Editorial suggestion:
“the string
pullerspushers“Just another financial drug on the market, to say no to.
Was at my local Bank of America branch this AM to hit the ATM. Sign advertising mortgages with only three products offered: 30-year fixed, 5/1ARM, and a 30-year interest only. Thirty-year interest only? I looked for flyers because I was sure this would be a five-year interest only period before the principle was due, but the only flyers were in Spanish and what looked like Korean.
So they’re still pushing the toxic stuff at least in my neighborhood of the Boston area.
Good thing the only banking I use BoA for is holding a few hundred dollars cash just because they have an ATM on every block here in New England.
because they have an ATM on every block here in New England
I still can’t help of thinking of BofA as a “California” bank.
ever since Bank Boston purchased Fleet, combining into FleetBoston, then BoA came along and picked that up, I’ve just been along for the ride.
One of their ATMs still owes me $40 that it withdrew but got jammed in the machine, that must have been 1995. I wouldn’t be with them other than the reasons above…
So do New Englanders call it BofA (Bee of Eey)?
In ‘99 a B oA atm drive through spit out over $1000.00 and the rest was stuck.. I only wanted 100.
I waved the money and drove off. I went in next day and they told me, SWEAR TO Gawd, to
KEEP IT.
Felt like I was in a weird movie or Candid camera show.
I was at in a bofa a few weeks back and they had those toxic ads plastered all over the walls inside the bank. I’ve got to believe at this stage it’s a bait and switch.
WalMart. ROTF
http://gigglesugar.com/744601
this one’s even better
http://gigglesugar.com/915294
Note the 10% service charge added to the total.
Even funnier for Walmart is they missed their estimates by quite a bit - expected to be up 2% and were actually up 0.5%. Oops.
Explanation/excuse seems to be that people aren’t spending their gift cards as much as expected and when they do, they are buying low margin items…like food.
Wasn’t people using gift cards for needed items rather than wanted items an HBB prediction for the X-mas season?
It is quite astonishing that the market analysts have been consistently coming out with wrong predictions about everything. Everyday it is the same story: Numbers come out and it is a surprise for the pundits.
Not surprising at all. No doubt that analysts are being told to be optimistic with their forecasts. The last thing the PTB want is for the public to really know how bad things are, along with the ensuing panic that would follow.
This is the most absolutely infuriating part of all this. The track record on this blog far exceeds these know-it-all, upper pedigreed sanctimonious turds. Yet blogs are somehow seen as less legitimate becuase we’re not “annointed” by the PTB(because we don’t lick their rectums like all the tv news outlets do).
Sickening. Truly sickening.
You all deserve so much more credit than that. I’ll raise my glass to Ben any day….
Housing Price Problems in Finland’s Capital:
Upward trend in Helsinki housing prices is stalling - Helsingin Sanomat
Sign of the times?
“Repossession Agents Wanted”
http://boise.craigslist.org/sec/564352039.html
I can’t believe we have not heard much more about the “car bubble”. I’m sure those struggling with $500+ car payments are thinking “just tow it away” in addition to the “just walk away” line associated with housing.
Geez, $35 a car?? Is it possible to do 5 per day? At least that’s a yearly salary of $55K.
Doesn’t sound fun.
That could equate into 5 potential violent events per day. Thus 25 per week… What is the life expectancy of an auto repossessor?
I don’t know… I guess if they are needing 3-4 then 3-4 must have just gotten shot while trying to repo the escalade with 22 inch chrome spinner rims.
Hire Blackwater.
We just had one get killed. I kind of smirked, but it wasn’t a thug .. the guy was trying to take the vehicle at night and it rolled over him or something. I don’t have respect for that occupation or the people in it.
Remember that great indy film was it REPO MAN..
It took me 20 years to see it (recently.) If I give you my phone number… can you explain it to me?!
RE: and able to work professionaly with people in hostile situations
Doesn’t sound like fun? I’m surprised they didn’t include a license to carry a concealed weapon in the qualification requirements.
Definitely a good way to get shot!
Grabbin’ somebody’s car meaning their only way to survive isn’t somethin’ to take lightly, epecially in an area where there are people who will kill for a pair of sneakers.
I hought those Hummers and Escalades were bought outright with HELOC cash, so no repossession. That is, until the bank starts exercising its recourse rights.
Only $35 per car? I don’t think potentially loosing your life or getting the crap beat out of you is worth $35 per car.
do you need a green card?
The game with cars is to hide them from the repo man. Houses are a bit tougher to conceal.
You ever watch those shows about repo men on TLC? They are pretty good- they can snatch the car in just a few minutes.
Ever try and hotwire a house?
snatch.. who said something about snatch.. please keep it clean here!
Walt: What’s a four-letter word for snatch?
Bob: Grab.
Walt: Oh… right. Whoopsie.
Is that the one with the hefty blonde latina that could be Dee Snider and Debora Iyall’s love child? Operacion Repo. Que bueno.
I have a friend from high school who did car repo’ing when he living in Vegas as a second job. The pay wasn’t really much he said, but he did it more as a fun hobby.
He literally told me, it was like he was getting paid legally and legitimately, to steal other people’s cars.
I don’t think he did 5 or 6 cars a day though. He’d do one or two a night after he got off his shift from his first job.
Wal Mart news:
Wal-Mart said “customers appear to be holding gift cards longer and using them more often for food and consumables rather than discretionary purchases.”
Dear Aunt Mim: Thank you for the Walmart card you sent me at Christmas. I’m going to use it to make sure the kids are able to eat this month.
*sigh*
Hardly the sign of a bustling economy.
i was thinking the same thing
probably not what the giver had in mind when they purchased said gift card but at least some fb’s can eat
if you call the food stuffs walmart sells food -nothing but processed fatty crap from what i ‘ve seen
The Wal Marts in my area sell the same canned, dry, and frozen goods as the grocery chains sell. Same brands, less expensive. The meat, though, is a different story. It’s hit or miss. I tend to shop locally for meat and produce. Although, TBH, Wal Mart’s bell pepper suppliers have been getting good ones to our store lately.
I have noticed that their produce is usually wretched.
Another thing I have noticed about WalMart is that in addition to the national brands, they also sell obscure brands you don’t see at places like Safeway or Kroger. Odd brands of strawberry jam, cookies, etc., which are usually much cheaper than the national brands.
My wife likes it because WM is so much busier than the grocery chains that she feels that the stock is fresher.
Perhaps the gubermint can somehow tweak the numbers to make it look like rising food prices (thanks to inflation) are actually increasing the GDP a large amount. “Amerika is strong! People are buying food, and the food is more expensive, so sales are up! Amerika is strong!”
I wouldn’t put it past them. After all if real inflation is higher that official inflation, it would look like “growth”. I suppose that we will be bombarded with articles about how we are all becoming “foodies”, that being the reason we are spending more on food.
I heard on the radio the the Fed will buy mortgages and refinance in a worst case scenario, which is probably the average scenario among posters on this board. It was supposedly in the WSJ, but I didn’t see it.
That would be a disaster. The FED is not in the RE business and what will they do with all those REO’s?
I can think of one possibility which would serve to stimulate Caterpillar Inc’s share price. Can you picture BB driving a bulldozer and wearing a hard hat? (Kahuna Bear, I hope you are reading today!)
As in, furry hairy bear versus housing bear?
There is a good amount of local housing stock that could stand to be bulldozed. Of course, it all now carries asking prices of $150K.
Perhaps Caterpillar could start MFG oversized helicopters for BB.
Same thing RTC did in the last bust. Sell ‘em to politically-connected vulture funds at pennies on the dollar.
I am guessing Sen Dodd is putting together a list of campaign contributors as we type… Given that we are in the information age, I am wondering if there is any good way to track who are the beneficiaries of any such move this time, and which pols gave them the sweet deal?
Dodd’s will push the idea that government buy the REO’s and renting them to Section 8 people ,or maybe War Veterans .
Hillary will declare a “National Freeze” on foreclosures that will just make the Lenders lose more money .
Crammer wants the Government to bail out the Insurance Companies ,so the Stock market can rally and he can keep his job picking stocks .Or, how about the plan for the banks and investment firms to raise money to delay their losses .
And many of the rest of the bail out groups just simply want FHA, Freddie and Fannie to buy/refinance the bad paper at the taxpayers expense .
Oh, and the rest think lowering the interest rates to zero will create cheap money that will rally up housing and the stock market,spending ,etc. .Oh, don’t forget the bonus money to consumers to spent to solve a problem of inflated values bought with debt .
I think all these emergency plans above will come into play as the market crash unfolds . The powers don’t get that the consumer is tapped out and in serious debt .
“The powers don’t get that the consumer is tapped out and in serious debt .”
Picture: A dreary and cold January evening waiting in the WMT checkout line under the harsh flourescent lights to pay for ramen and toilet paper…with your Christmas gift card. Passing the time by gleefully trying to figure the tax refund you’ll get from H&R Block…on an advance.
Well put. Couple that with the fact that most Americans haven’t quite figured it out yet either.
How many qtrs/months of 401K loses on top of housing before the the “ut oh” moment?
Perhaps the next shoe to drop - J6P gets his 401K statement and decides to sell.
As expected, the ECB left the rate unchanged at 4.0%.
mortgage rates in Netherlands are down by 0.75% in a few weeks time; they are again near all-time lows and banks expect further 0.25% decline within 1-2 months. This might raise home prices again and for sure will cause another refi binge in Netherlands (and probably other EU countries as well). Although banks are a bit more reluctant to lend to small businesses, mortgage lending for consumers is still as crazy as ever. The US subprime problems are definitely strengthening the EU bubble
regarding the euro: it is plunging against most other currencies lately, and it is very telling that despite a surging dollar, the euro gold price remains tied closely to its alltime high of EUR 20K/kg.
The central banks are engineering some new parachutes for the big speculators.
Speaking of Euros, didn’t some say the other day to tell him when people would take Euros in addition to dollars and until then gold ruled?
“Euros Accepted” signs pop up in New York City
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080206/us_nm/newyork_euros_dc
P.S.: funny how mortgage rates (and requirements) in the US are going up while the FED is forcing their fund rate down, and at the same time mortgage rates in EU are going down significantly with requirements as loose as ever - while the ECB keeps rates steady.
something does not compute … my guess is that it is caused by lots of manipulation behind the screen. Or maybe the FEDs monetarist theories are proven dead wrong now.
Fed Fund rates flow to the banks.
MBS determine the rate for mortgages. Not many reasonable investors are willing to buy MBS yielding 6% when Brazilian Government bonds are yielding 11%. There is tremendous risk in buying any non government paper in the US.
so the market is saying that the EU housing bubble will NOT pop??
you can get 5-10 year fixed rate mortgages here for around 5%, and 30-year fixed for a little more.
Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn
Rising Number of Defaults
Also Could Complicate
Effort to Help Homeowners
By RUTH SIMON and MICHAEL CORKERY
February 6, 2008; Page B8
As lenders pore over their defaulted mortgages, they are learning that the number of people who bought homes as investments is much greater than previously believed.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120225852189145889.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
“Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn”
Really?
Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn”
written by Socrates
Quite a shocker there for long-time posters on this blog…
Speculators were at least 50% in the boom years I think.
At least in speculative markets (California, Arizona, Nevada, etc).
I question if there is a market in this country that wasn’t speculative (besides places like old Buffalo). I’m at the end of Redneck Road up here and prices were run up pretty well over the past few years.
Any high expectations of rapid future gains could be considered speculation, and in that case I would be willing to bet that speculation was above 50% even outside of the bubble areas. The tag lines such as “real estate never goes down,” or “we’re going to sell in a few years and move to a bigger McCastle” were good indicators of expectations of rapid future gains.
If your area didn’t have speculators, it was truly different there. (Which just meant that the speculators were obviously still on their way and just about to swoop in to save the area from any mythical housing downturn.)
Let us hope that the knowledge of who the true borrowers that are foreclosure bound are (speculators ) will end this talk of saving gamblers and loan fraud criminals that can’t be saved .
I guess part of the problem for the loan auditors is that the REIC made these loan packages look so pretty that they don’t find out they have a empty house until a actual inspection is made . Is it a surprise that lenders don’t have homeowners calling them
trying to make a re-write deal ? What a surprise when the lender finds out they have a renter in the house instead ,while they haven’t received a payment for 5 months .
Nobody knows that the foreclosure 2 doors down from me is empty and the speculator owner walked months ago .One of my neighbors called the bank that has the mortgage and found out that the Lender is out of business .
IMHO the powers can’t solve problems if they won’t admit what the real problems are . Property got inflated by speculators and unqualified buyers who cannot afford the homes in a price crash market of low demand and over supply ,(not to mention lack of qualified buyers if you exercise prudent lending ). Allowing 100% financing in a speculation market had to be the most stupid thing the risk-takers have done during this fake inflated home price crime wave .
What a surprise when the lender finds out they have a renter in the house instead ,while they haven’t received a payment for 5 months .
Here’s an even better one. This scenario was not uncommon during the mid 90’s bust in San Diego. A house would be foreclosed and the borrower would move out. After sitting empty a few months a squatter would move in, change the locks, get the house looking presentable (mow the lawn, remove all foreclosure papers taked to doors, etc.) and then plop a “For Rent” sign out in front. The rent would be significantly below market, but the “landlord” would require a few months payment up front. Upon receiving these monies he would simply dissappear. Eventually the tenants would realize that they’ld been had, and would either move on, or wait to be evicted. The lucky ones would perhaps go unnoticed by the bank and get their money’s worth for their prepaid rent.
“After sitting empty a few months…”
I have a very simple proposed solution to the vacant home problem. If banks (or the current owner) let a home sit unoccupied and allow its condition to deteriorate for over X months, then the municipality which owns the home can take possession and auction it off to the highest bidder. Suddenly the myriad vacancy problems with eyesores, meth labs, squatter dens, gang hangouts and green pools serving as breeding grounds for West Nile virus vectors would summarily end.
In Dallas, I kid you not, the city officials already do this. Except they do it to operating businesses that their friends would like closed.
Luckily the U.S. economy does not have the problem of depending on OPM.
Credit Crunch Pounds U.K. Economy
By Alistair MacDonald and Mark Whitehouse
Word Count: 1,936
LONDON — The global credit crunch is threatening to claim a new casualty: The United Kingdom, a country that has staked its economic success on attracting other people’s money.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120234240716748807.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_page_one
Next Round In the Crunch: Europe’s Banks
By Carrick Mollenkamp
Word Count: 508 | Companies Featured in This Article: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, UBS
Investors hoping for calm after January’s market turmoil could be disappointed again: European banks are about to report earnings, and the outlook isn’t pretty.
Analysts are predicting write-downs for an array of problems, including exposure to debt backed by struggling U.S. bond insurers, high-yield corporate loans, commercial-mortgage securities, and “alt-A” U.S. mortgages that rank a step above subprime loans in risk.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120234389156849037.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_money_and_investing
but at the same time, rates on savings accounts AND mortgage rates are as low as ever. You wouldn’t say from looking at the rates that the EU banks have liquidity problems …
As far as I understand, there were no write downs in DB report today. I wonder how that is possible.
Will New Rules On Mortgages Help Borrowers?
Bill Seen Likely to Encourage
Lower Rates on Bigger Loans,
But Benefits May Be Limited
By SARA MURRAY and JONATHAN KARP
February 7, 2008
As Congress moves to lower borrowing costs on so-called jumbo mortgages, lending experts caution that the benefits to borrowers may be limited.
Jumbo mortgages, or loans greater than $417,000, normally carry interest rates of about 0.25 percentage point above smaller, so-called conforming mortgages. But the current credit crisis and turmoil in the mortgage-securities markets have widened this premium to as much as a full percentage point, pushing up borrowing costs for people in higher-priced homes.
As part of a broader economic-stimulus package, lawmakers are considering allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase or guarantee mortgages larger than $417,000, the current cutoff for conforming loans. That in turn is expected to encourage lenders to charge lower rates on the larger loans, because the loans would have the implicit backing of the federal government. The pending legislation would temporarily boost the cap for Fannie and Freddie to as much as $729,750, especially in places like California and along the East Coast where housing prices are much higher than the national average. The new caps would be based on the median home price in certain areas, rather than the current flat national cap.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120234341375149111.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj
Suppose they passed a mortgage bailout and nobody qualified?
‘The new limits won’t help people holding jumbo mortgages refinance into a lower cost loan if their homes are worth less than their existing mortgage. Jan Van Wynsberghe, president of Miracle Financial
:-) 
, a mortgage broker in Upland, Calif., says thousands of borrowers in Southern California’s Inland Empire region, where her firm is located, have mortgages that exceed the value of homes, known as being upside down. “I had 10 clients call in January to request a refinancing, but I could help only one because the rest were upside down,” she says.’
Helping people get more in debt by taking out bigger jumbo loans, is not going to help this economy.
The goal should be how to unwind some of this debt with as little pain as possible.
What do you have against willing knifecatchers who want to do their part to prevent housing market liquidity from freezing over?
Suppose there is a shortage of willing knifecatchers. Can anyone comment on which govt entities are likely to serve as knifecatchers of last resort?
HUD.
“The new caps would be based on the median home price in certain areas, rather than the current flat national cap.”
Just for fun, checked the median here. It’s $119K in my town, $155K in Maine. Ergo, no help for Mainers with jumbos…
Does whether owning and renting out a second home turns out to be a “positive experience” depend whatever on cash flow considerations?
FISCALLY FIT
By TERRI CULLEN
Renting Out a Second Home While Keeping Your Sanity
Rentals, Repairs and the ‘Ick Factor’:
Terri’s Tips for Owning a Vacation Home
February 7, 2008; Page D1
Recently my friend Jason and his wife Angie bought a vacation home in Vermont, close to a number of the state’s major ski resorts. After years of taking expensive weekend trips to the state, they decided to buy there because they fell in love with a home and thought it would be a good investment.
…
Buying a second home can be daunting financially: In addition to taking on a mortgage, vacation-home owners face a second set of utility, maintenance and tax bills. Toss in the stress of managing the home as a rental property, and some would-be second-home shoppers might be wiser happier (SIC) sticking with renting. But with proper planning, a little common sense — and some friends spreading the good word — renting out a vacation home can be a positive experience.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120232437161848343.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj
I hope everybody reads the article, as it really provides a window into what a hassle buying a rental property is. Then throw in the fact that the house is dropping around 7%/year and this couple has a nightmare on their hands.
The last sentiment is priceless (paraphrasing): “Although it’s been a painful experience so far, the couple thinks they made a sound investment.”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
I should say “vacation rental”.
After years of taking expensive weekend trips to the state, they decided to buy there because they fell in love with a home and thought it would be a good investment.
Will the ski people please just rent a hotel/house when they are here and leave us alone in the meantime? This whole “we own a 2nd house in VT” crap clutters the landscape and raises house price prices for the locals.
If you love it, figure out a way to be part of the community instead of leaving behind a shell of a house. VT isn’t all about skiing and “quaint” little communities here for your amusement.
(Hmm..I seem to be bitter today…)
Hey Vermontergal, I’ve been starting to look for a house in the Chittenden county area and you would not believe how many empty 400k plus houses there are out there, just collecting dust. When the economic sh*t really does hit the fan all these second homes are gonna be left high and dry. My wife and I figure a good time to buy will be 1-2 years from now. Inventory is high now and I’m sure by springtime it will be through the roof….especially with all the new developments still going in. We’re going to attempt to cash out of our condo this summer and wait it out by renting.
Oh yeah, F&^*(&(*&ing snow.
This is total B.S.
I own a duplex here in Austin.
There are two things that need to be established 1) renting a property is work 2) never rent any thing you truly care about.
Renting a property a distance away from your home is a pain. If any thing goes wrong you have to drive hours to fix it or hire a local contractor to do it. If you hire a local guy at a resort, he’ll assume your some rich carpet bagger and charge you a vast sum for a simple job. When you do what to rent it, you’ll have to rely on property agents whom charge 10 percent for doing litte more than reviewing an application, taking a deposit and handing out keys. For a property that rents for $2000 / month - that’s = $200 in a property manager’s pocket. The article indicates that maintenance is included - no way - that is extra. If a light switch goes out - they call an electrician whom charges $200 for installing a $0.50 switch. Paper clogged toilet – call a plumber at $75 a visit. As for the property manager’s “marketing” – that usually involves putting an ad up on Craig’s list or some other internet bulletin board.
Also, the article does not mention about renters attitudes towards the property. What happens when they rent to a group of fraternity brothers during spring break? What is their vacation home going to look like after that week? What about the young couple with two small children whom like to spill cool-aide on the carpet?
The moral of this rant is that you can make ok money renting property and if you maintain you place, you can sell with some nice appreciation. However, there is no free lunch / passive income in this game.
Very often, you’ll find the ‘we love it so much, hence you pay more’ attitude, it’s pretty annoying. Especially if the place is ugly and stinky.
Also, what about the renter’s “ick” feeling. Some owners live there with their cats/dogs for some months, and then just ‘rent’ it out after little cleaning. Or the poor renter has to look at family photos of people she would never want to live with, and their varied family crap.
The idea of a vacation rental should be that it is also CHEAPER than a hotel, and most of those places are asking hotel prices lately.
Roger: You make many excellent points. Where I live, it’s very tempting to rent (one week’s rent = one month’s mortgage payment), even if you have to double up with relatives for July and August, as many do. I’ve never had a bad experience with tenants, but some of my friends have stories that will curl your hair, many of which involve fire (woodstoves, fireplaces, and ovens). My favorite is the tenant who, when it was raining, thought it would be a really good idea to bring the BBQ grill into the living room, then light it with kerosene.
My advice to anyone thinking of going this route is to remove every single item you care about from the house and replace these items with things you do not care about. I have tenants’ sheets, tenants’ dishes, tenants’ cookware, towels, etc., all perfectly nice and serviceable but easily and cheaply replaced if they get wrecked (which they will).
RE: My favorite is the tenant who, when it was raining, thought it would be a really good idea to bring the BBQ grill into the living room, then light it with kerosene.
I knew a guy with a seasonal rental…when the current tenant ran out of wood for the fireplace-he used a set of old tires.
Kinda smokey-but I guess it lent to a NASCAR speedway type ambience.
Or some of the stories from people who try their hand at frying a turkey for Thanksgiving…..
Do it OUTSIDE, away from anything flammable!!!! Not in the kitchen. Not in the garage.
Yes, once they found out how that the property management takes half, they are going the do-it-yourself route. Same as hundreds of other owners on whose calendars you can click on ‘for rent by owner’ sites, and see how few bookings they have.
Most of them ask wishing prices. Am waiting for thousands of those folks to walk.
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — “So you want to be in charge of monetary policy?” asks the education section of the Federal Reserve’s Web site. “Think you have what it takes to steer our country’s central bank? See how it works by taking charge of a simulated economy.”
Yes, please! What a hoot! “Your goal is to get reappointed,” says the site….”
Bloomberg
They misspelled ’stimulated economy.’
Simulated or stimulated. Could the meaning within the context be the same?
Would it be illegal to hack the site and rig the game? Would it be immoral? Can I play the “Sovereign Wealth Fund” character instead?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080207/wall_street.html
looks like another down opening for the stock market
The casino addiction of trading, duh.
“…One of his findings was that brain images of drug addicts who are about to take another hit are indistinguishable from those of traders who are making money and about to place another trade. “That tells us pretty confidently that if you make money and make money again,” Mr. Zweig said, “it is very similar to a chemical addiction and it becomes very hard to let go.”…
The findings, while preliminary, suggest — perhaps unsurprisingly — that traders who let their emotions get the best of them tend to fare poorly in the markets. But traders who rely on logic alone don’t do that well either. The most successful ones use their emotions to their advantage without letting the feelings overwhelm them.
“The best traders are the ones who have controlled emotional responses,” Mr. Lo said….
New York Times
http://tinyurl.com/34ckgk
Watch …..The “Addiction Defense ” will become the New Age defense for liar loan borrowers and greedy pigs speculators who committed greed crimes.
I remember a Escrow Company Owner that got busted for stealing escrow funds and his defense was that he was on medication and he didn’t know what he was doing .
It use to be that the Judicial System was designed to just determine if a crime has been committed or not . When law became a system of excuses with” hired guns” to support defense excuses ,we as a society laid the foundation for the “Devil made me do it Society “,in which nobody is to blame for any misdeeds .
“A society that does not render reward and punishment in a just manner is doomed to fail “. ( Don’t remember where I got this quote from ,but I think it was from THE ART OF WAR . )
Sorta like the experimental monkey that was wired up to give himself an orgasm every time he punched a button?
Starved to death while punching that button 24/7………..:)
Sounds exactly like a news report I read today on the differences in measured brain activity between men and women playing a test video game. Men get more interested/addicted the more territory they capture. Pity the reporter didn’t say if they took readings during play of games women prefer. My recorder wouldn’t even twitch during a rousing contest at my wife’s favorite bubble popping game.
Prof Bear,
There is an article in the WSJ dispelling the notion that raising the conforming rates will help.
“….But the housing and mortgage industries say the expiration date — which could be altered before the bill hits the president’s desk — could pose a big problem. Given the time needed to implement the law, make new mortgages, get Fannie or Freddie guarantees, turn them into securities and get the new market for those securities functioning, the number of mortgages that could actually benefit before Dec. 31 may be disappointingly small. “That’s not enough time for them to make a significant enough contribution to the housing-finance sector to help pull us out of this downturn,” says Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders, which is pressing Congress to make the provision last at least two years.
The new limits won’t help people holding jumbo mortgages refinance into a lower cost loan if their homes are worth less than their existing mortgage. Jan Van Wynsberghe, president of Miracle Financial, a mortgage broker in Upland, Calif., says thousands of borrowers in Southern California’s Inland Empire region, where her firm is located, have mortgages that exceed the value of homes, known as being upside down. “I had 10 clients call in January to request a refinancing, but I could help only one because the rest were upside down,” she says.
http://tinyurl.com/23hdog
I already posted this above, including the last part of your post. Sounds like Californians who bought at the mania peak are SOL.
I think this is false advertising - running a mortgage firm called “Miracle Financial” and not even being able to help people upside down on their mortgages!
Is it time to buy the dip yet?
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Is it possible to lock the yield on the 30-yr T-bond and let all other prices adjust? (Only the 30-yr is unchanged; every other number on the screen is red…)
Scratch that thought — a liquidity dump is underway…
I guess a big plunge protection liquidity dump accompanied this news?
February 7, 2008 10:05 A.M.EST
BULLETIN PENDING U.S. HOME SALES DOWN 1.5% IN DECEMBER
Fourth day of losses dawns
Bears are in control as Cisco, Wal-Mart counsel caution
MarketWatch.com
Something very odd is happening this morning to l-t T-bond yields against the backdrop of a stock market selloff… (Hint: In a flight-to-quality move into l-t T-bonds, the yields normally fall.)
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=TYX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=2&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=tnx&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
It almost looks like a man behind the curtain flipped a switch that puts a lock on the price of flight-to-quality assets (gold and l-t T-bonds) and lets equity prices take all the adjustment…
TYX seems to be in a trading range centered tightly on 44…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=TYX&sid=11421&dist=TQP_Nav_chart
Let me rephrase my earlier question. How many more months will pass before it is a good time to buy the dip?
Or sell into the bounces ? Secular bear market is here I guess.
I own very little stock, so that strategy will not work for me.
moved pretty much the last stuff i had last week into cash. caught the nice rebound last week and have very little left with exposure to this market
i will just watch for now
SBM been here since Y2K, but temporarily masked by hyperstimulative monetary policy…
Is it too early to conclude the grand policy experiment to test whether asset price inflation could be used to remedy the tech stock bust was an abysmal failure?
Wouldn’t that be a “cyclical bull in a secular bear” market?
Textbook retest of the jan lows so far with a much higher low. Don’t get too cocky.
Is this a Canadian low? I think I’d rather have a Mexican High!
Buffett, one of the world’s wealthiest people, appeared to see irony in the fact that many of the banks that marketed complex investments that later crashed were bearing much of the fallout.
“It’s sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end,” he said.
LA Times
It appears that Mr. Buffett is also a reader
Comes around, goes a round.
except that the ceo’s and others got their big bonuses for several years, and may have sold off stock during that time period as well. Yes the banks may be hurting but the people that brewed the toxic drink could be sipping umbrella drinks in warmer climates by now.
If I had to venture a guess, i’d say that there are more than a few Gulfstream V’s, gassed up and ready to go at a moment’s notice, on a runaway near you.
Assuming that their flight and maintenance crews have enough money to buy gas to get to the airport.
This article is a hoot
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a96RXmg5XRuc&refer=home
Evidently, the Fed website has a monetary policy game for the public to play. And it shows the current policies will lead to rising inflation.
I guess the problem is the game doesn’t take the possible collapse of the U.S. financial system into account.
“A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?”
Does anyone know who said this?
WOPR?
From the movie “War Games”, I think.
Wasn’t the machine (program) named Brian, after that guy’s son?
Joshua from War Games
Ah, Joshua, that’s it. Thanks.
Would you like to play global thermo nuclear war?
If they gave Oscars for housing bubble journalism, Ruth Simon and June Fletcher would both be leading contenders.
From p. D3 of today’s WSJ (sorry, I have no link):
States Say Mortgage Companies Fall Short on Loan Modification
By Ruth Simon
—————–
Mortgage companies have stepped up their efforts to work with delinquent borrowers, but their actions aren’t keeping up with the rapid rise in bad loans, a new study by state officials suggests.
The study, compiled by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, which includes state attorneys general and banking regulators from 11 states, found that mortgage-servicing companies working with troubled borrowers in October were looking to modify 45% of the loans. The mortgage companies expect less than 7% of the troubled borrowers to come up with the funds to make the loan current. A loan modification can involve changing or freezing the interest rate on the loan, extending the term of the loan or reducing the amount owed.
By contrast, less than 10% of such efforts completed in October involved a change in the terms of the borrower’s loan while nearly three-quarters of such efforts involved the borrower coming up with funds to make the loan current.
PB’s loan modification arithmetic:
(100-7) pct of 3/4 = 93*3/400 = 69.75 pct = estimated share of troubled borrowers with October loan modifications who will be unable to come up with the dough needed to make their modified loans current
SocGen gets a double whammy.
Economy
Politics & Policy
Campaign 2008
Earnings
Health
Law
Media & Marketing
News by Industry
Columnists
Tax Twist in the Trading Scandal
By David Gauthier-Villars
Société Générale
PARIS — Société Générale says it lost €4.9 billion ($7.17 billion) at the hands of 31-year-old trader Jérôme Kerviel. Now, the embattled French bank could face another financial hit — this time from the tax man….”
WSJ
M. J. Kerviel made to much money.
Credit crunch hits spendthrifts in the wallet…
A dismal January chills retailers
Sales results for many worse than even grim forecasts
By William Spain, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:52 a.m. EST Feb. 7, 2008
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — With few exceptions, it was a miserable start to 2008 for U.S. retailers. Many of the biggest names in the sector on Thursday posted January sales numbers that were even worse than already grim Wall Street forecasts.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/january-retail-sales-numbers-worse-grim/story.aspx?guid=%7B5A1A4E78%2D1655%2D4F12%2DABB8%2DD5C9690CB113%7D
Now I finally grasp why the economy needs stimulus.
close bold man
i am persoanally on a no spending binge
only food and other staples
“In a letter to Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D., Pa), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said a downgrade of the monoline bond insurers could leave banks exposed to losses on insured securities and force them to take back onto their balance sheets insured securities held by others for which they have provided liquidity and credit guarantees. “Banks could be required to bring a sizable volume of assets, especially municipal securities, onto their books,” he said in the letter, released by Mr. Kanjorski last night. “Given the adverse effects that problems of financial guarantors can have on financial markets and the economy, we are closely monitoring developments.” –Greg Ip
WSJ Blog
(this comment posted is the perma bulls response)
They are not cash losses, so the Fed should not be bullying the monoline insurers.
My blog: wallstreetweather.net
Comment by Deborah - February 7, 2008 at 9:25 am
The losses are real. At some point in time some entity will have to take the losses. 2 weeks, 2 months, 2 years no idea. Mark to market is real.
http://tinyurl.com/ywfvaz
“2 weeks, 2 months, 2 years no idea. Mark to market is real.”
2 decades, 2 centuries, 2 millenia… what limits the time horizon?
CNN Freudian Slip?
“Freddie will report its first ever annual loss for 2007 at the end of February, while Fannie, is expected to report its first loss in 22 years for the year. As the sublime crisis has grown, banks have backed away from buying mortgages in the secondary market. This has left Fannie and Freddie, which do the same thing, to pick up the slack. “
Probably just Microsoft word/whatever auto-correcting as they typed that, and it going un-noticed.
Maybe they are sandbagging again…
“It has gotten so bad, Pearson said, that she and her husband have started looking for jobs again just to make ends meet.
Oh my God. Going to work… AGAIN?! What’s the world is turning into?!
TOTALLY OT - sorry, but if anyone’s looking for a domain name, DO NOT use Network Solutions. Read the Wikipedia entry on them first. They just scammed me out of 3 domains. Just sayin’ (sorry, Ben, for using up bandwidth, but they’re BAD scammers).
I was shocked yesterday because I checked the new domain the boss wanted on network solutions rather than our registrar/hosting company. Then when they tried to reserve it, found out that network solutions had put a hold on it. Wierd. Personal confirmation of part of the Wikipedia article.
Don’t use up all your tin foil too soon though. The boss was directed by our registrar just to call Network Solutions and they removed it and we registered it through our registrar within half an hour of contacting them.
I don’t know if this ever comes up in the bit bucket, but I had to take a tape out of the TV this morning and while it was on, an infomercial for http://www.teachmeforeclosure.com was on. I was appalled. I’m sure there are more scammers like these active - they deserve their own thread or something.
Pending home sales slump
Thursday February 7, 12:13 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080207/usa_economy_housing.html?.v=5
Does anyone here have any experience with Tradeking? I’m thinking of making a switch.
Romney’s out.
MR was a fun ‘tard, while he lasted.
He’s just another in a long list of political fools from Utah.
He’s from Michigan.
LOL - he belongs in Utah.
Romney said he has suspended his campaign. He really didn’t say he was out of the race.
So does this mean he will jump back in down the road?
Maybe he is hoping for a VP nomination
Vice is verboten amongst the flock, so probably not.
There are plenty of part-time saints in the City of Saints.
“So does this mean he will jump back in down the road?”
Just like Michael Bloomberg and Al Gore?
Yeah, cause that worked so well for Ross Perot.
I’m going to write in Hillary Clinton just to fool with them.
“It could be a tsunami-like event comparable to subprime,” Ackermann said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Frankfurt today. Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank, is “well positioned” on its risk from bond insurers, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNakA5B47ql4&refer=home
Freddie, Fannie debt may pose risk to economy
The housing slump has compelled the two entities to buy up mortgages on the secondary market that banks are backing away from. But that could end badly, charges one regulator.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/real_estate/raise_GSE_cap_limits/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
I suspect that this maybe our future with regard to the US’s financial crisis! Sorry, If this has already been posted.
Elites Float U.S. Bank Bailout Plans
From Website:”The Wall Street Examiner”
http://tinyurl.com/ysdw4t
Homeowners: Can’t pay? Just walk away
More and more borrowers are watching their house values sink while the cost of their loans skyrockets. What to do? Skip out on the mortgage all together.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/06/real_estate/walking_away/index.htm?postversion=2008020711
But.. but… but…
Just this morning, Jim Azz Clown Cramer declared that all the speculators had already walked and the only people left were good people that would buckle down and make their payments.
He declared that it is all turning around and soon there will be price appreciation.
What a moron!!!! No mention about price/income ratio. No mention of rent/cost of purchase.
He just decides what he wants to happen, and declares that it is happening.
Another fool that thinks the ONLY thing that matters is psycology. Fundamentals are irrelivant. BS…. Psycology may be important short-term, but over the long-term fundamentals overrule.
This morning he says, take interest rates down to 1.5% and I’ll buy mortgage debt.
And there we have it. DESTROY every other investment oppertunity so that we FORCE people with money to lose in in mortgages to bail out the banks.
Some one needs to make him realize that NOT EVERYONE in this country works on Wall Street. Fiscal and Monitary policies should not be focused 100% on how it effects him and his buddies. The nation does NOT exist just to ensure him and his friends get and stay rich!
I think the Wall Street pukes were banking on stupid J6P to do the “right thing” and keep paying the mortgage on an underwater house. Which is what people would do, if they were only underwater a little bit.
The problem is, people are underwater HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS, while their actual take home pay is stagnant or declining.
If given the choice between being a house payment slave for the rest of your life, and having enough money to put the kids thru college, guess what? House go bye-bye.
There have been to many stories of people in all walks of life gaming the system, and leaving J6P taxpayer to bail them out. Me-thinks that J6P is going to let the system work for HIM, for a change
“The nation does NOT exist just to ensure him and his friends get and stay rich!”
He believes it does and will do everything in his power to keep it that way.
These articles describe “walking away” and “skipping out”. I’d like to know more about it. Did they cancel the cable? Sell their car? Stop going out to eat…?
Walking away makes it sound as though they did not sacrifice a bit.
What the heck happened to the 10 year????
What is happening in stocks? Everything that should be down, is up?
Markets are more insane than usual today. Nothing makes sense.
Looks odd to me also. The dollar is zooming up to the top of its recent trading range yet gold is holding (actually up a bit). At the same time Treasuries, especially long-term, are down (yield up big) so it isn’t a rush into safe, dollar debt. US equities should shoot up on a rising dollar yet they’re only up a bit (so far).
The above explains why I’m not a short-term trader.
Oh… the 30 year auction pulled some long term money to the higher yield 30.
Ouch for my treasury holdings.
The government has to finance some way.
At least there were some bids for the US Ts. I am wondering who will be buying municipals as property taxes will not be paid in a timely fashion. In some states (Illinois and Wisconsin - I know), property taxes are marked to market. A 20% decrease in property taxes puts a lot of munis at risk.
Hoz, Do you think we are near, close or at a good point to purchase the reverse Treasury index? (Can’t remember the ticker)
RYJUX …I think
Just an observation here, but have any of you been bidding on online auctions lately? The stuff I bid on, I am noticing more collections being put up for auction instead of piecemeal item sales. I’ve noticed this since beginning of the new year. You think that a cash squeeze is happening?
I don’t know what’s up with eBay, but it’s VERY slow. More stuff, too, esp. computers.
short answer: Yes
I’m in the same boat, but for different reasons (looking to move to a house 1/2 the size of the current one and cure life-long pack-rat/collector -itis, and I’ve got a ton of collected stuff that I’ve realized I no longer have a strong attachment to. Honestly, becoming a dad twice had the most to do with - realization that I wont have the time, nor the desire really, to play with the stuff that I did when I was child-free.
But back to eBay.. in the stuff I collect, there has been a slow, constant drop in selling prices since around ‘01-’02 with the exception of the truly very rare items. Over the years, eBay has allowed enough stuff to surface (and the opening of stuff from overseas which used to be hard to find) most of the serious collectors have gotten their hands on most of the things they were looking for, leading to reduced demand.
If I was doing this (liquidating collections) for the money, I’d be pretty unhappy between the state of the market and eBay’s relentless increased in the share they take.
So…not a good time to unload my vast collection of vintage LPs, which I have been digitizing for the past six months?
Unlikely. I’m with the poster above.
Most collectors have found most things they were looking for. The Internet pretty much changed the terms of this game (like it did many others!)
What kind of a rig are you using? I am thinking about purchasing a new transcription table to digitize my old LPs.
I want one of these, but they cost $10K.
Nah, tried it out, and you can get _much_ better sound for half the price with a quality turntable and cartridge.
Digital is for people that can’t handle reality.
If GWB had gotten is way in 2005, to privatizing Social Security, who do you think would now be stuck with these toxic loans? Would Wall Street have dumped these toxic debt on the American public? Who do you think would have made fat fees off the total of all these individual accounts?
While I understand that this battle of efficiency is raging between “Public vs. Private” is an ongoing issue, I would like to state that if the public is going to “eat” the loss, then the public has a right in controlling the activities of private businesses/banks.
Just one person’s opinion.
And I like your opinion !
Test
So, Ben, was my postings inappropriate?
India
land: 2,973,190 sq km
Population:1,129,866,154 (July 2007 est.)
United States
land: 9,161,923 sq km
Population:301,139,947 (July 2007 est.)
Numbers come from CIA World Factbook
“Real estate - an asset class?
Many people are increasingly comfortable treating real estate as `an asset class’. It is argued that land isn’t being produced, that as the population grows, demand for real estate only goes up. Astronomical prices of real estate in India encourage holding real estate assets in the hope of obtaining high profits in the future.
This proposition is debatable. There is actually ample land out there. A calculation shows that even if all of India’s population had a dwelling of 1000 square feet per family of 4, this requires only 0.76% of India’s land area, assuming a low FSI of 1….
This is part of the story of the US housing market in recent years. Thanks to sound urban policies, there are no real entry barriers to building houses in the US. Zoning rules are sensible, and the policy framework supports easy extension of urban areas into outlying barren land. When houses could be sold for more than the price of cement and steel required to make them, this kicked off a massive supply response. This kicked up GDP growth for a few years. It took a little time, but this killed off the phase of rising prices. For some time now, house prices in the US will be low because of this overhang of supply….”
http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com/
Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi
(2007-)
There is no more land! (obviously Mr. Ajay Shah has never heard of the California Coastal Commission.)
Last weekend a good friend and I were talking about real estate. He bought in 03 and since then has been the one of the biggest cheerleaders in the game. Even going so far as to say “if your a renter your a f**** idiot”, a few years back. Now at this same time a third friend of ours who just got their Real Estate License, joined the conversation. Same stuff coming from her lips, they continued their conversation with each other, occasionally looking over to the renters and snickering. Fast forward back to last weekend and friend says,
“How far down do you think prices will go?”
“ah, I don’t know, maybe 04 prices” (I was being nice obviously)
he says “I don’t think so, I think they are going down even further then we bought my house!”
Needless to say, everyone will come around sometime or another.
Correct me if I am wrong, however I see a food chain with the American public as the bottom! If they are over-extended from a debt standpoint, then there is no future borrowing (credit acceptance). If our economy depends on the public assuming more debt, and their wages have been stagnant, then the whole system collapses.
Am I misunderstanding something?
The food chain has collapsed. The sharks and wales at the top of the food chain will eventual die.
Just one person’s understanding of the problem, Until the balance sheet of individual Americans has been adjusted to at least a positive, no matter what the FED does will not help America’s and the World’s economic situation.
Visited a NoVa contractor that does site work for residential. Times are grim, with their bread and butter work down over 70% from last year presumably dropping to zero. They are shifting to hiring out equipment with operator or other small contracts. Balance sheet has a dangerous amount of financed equipment.
I feel sorry for companies like this as many will succumb, leaving hard working americans with a bleak future (I could give a rats ass about the illegals, if any, on the payroll).
This is going to be a long and hard trickle up recession, as a whole generation of lower middle income folks losse their footing.
My wifes father is in construction. He’s working now and for the next 6 months. His company has no contracts after that. They have always had contracts lined up years in advance.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWv_IyXmRAPA&refer=home
“The auction went as poorly as one could imagine,” said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd., the world’s largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts. “There isn’t a lot of demand for bonds at these levels
Ahhhhhhh now what bernake?
Being Ben Bernanke (triple-bbb rated)
Must be awful loanly.
Here’s your colorado mountain getaway- listed on craigslist for 169k (2000 sq ft). nice.
http://www.knotnewwood.com/eco_house_for_sale
Well, the STIMULUS PACKAGE passed. Enjoy your new plasma TVs, America. I get bupkis as they say in NY. Of course, with the low interest rates and inflationary measures, careful savers like me are actually being reamed in the a$$ to pay for all this crap.
It’s an outrage that folks who have nothing to do with this mess get nothing except lower returns on their savings (if they make “too much”) while Harry Howmuchamonth and Sally Specuvestor get big fat checks.
I won’t get a penny. Bravo, Congress. Reward the foolish, penalize the prudent.
I’m buying up Slavic Village in Cleveland, with my $600.
I get zip too. No mention of Head of Household in the text. What a crock.
http://tinyurl.com/2bt76k
wow -this is one of the coolest houses I’ve ever seen! here’s what 700k gets you in colorado, californians.
Chaque a son gout.
Yeah, it is a bit much, on second visit. But I do like the clean lines. And it’s different. But to actually live in it…well, a bit much.
“So I jump ship in Hong Kong and make my way over to Tibet, and I get on as a looper at a course over in the Himalayas. A looper, you know, a caddy, a looper, a jock. So, I tell them I’m a pro jock, and who do you think they give me? The Dalai Lama, himself. Twelfth son of the Lama. The flowing robes, the grace, bald… striking. So, I’m on the first tee with him. I give him the driver. He hauls off and whacks one - big hitter, the Lama - long, into a ten-thousand foot crevasse, right at the base of this glacier. Do you know what the Lama says? Gunga galunga… gunga, gunga-galunga. So we finish the eighteenth and he’s gonna stiff me. And I say, ‘Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know.’ And he says, ‘Oh, uh, there won’t be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.’ So I got that goin’ for me, which is nice.”
LOL. Too late to enjoy it, though.
The house is in Crestone, the center of a HUGE fractal-like vortex or something. They have harmonica convergences there and all that. The Buddha likes it there, apparently, from the looks of the house. When you spend lot of time in a tent, a house like that seems pretty overwhelming.
A “harmonica convergence”?!
What, like Slim Harpo, Howlin’ Wolf, Little Walter and James Cotton all show up?
I prefer do-itself-yourself vortexes.
yeah, and they all play in the key of A, the frequency the earth hums to…
Don’t fight the Fed!
HEDGE FUNDS
Industry has worst month since dot-com bust
Equity, emerging-markets managers hit hard in January; Fed cuts hurt hedges
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:30 p.m. EST Feb. 7, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Hedge funds suffered their worst month in almost eight years in January as stock markets around the world fell on concern about a possible recession in the U.S.
Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts may have made things worse as heavily shorted financial and consumer-related stocks rallied late in the month, investors said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/industry-suffers-worst-month-january/story.aspx?guid=%7B46ADC13F%2D219E%2D468C%2DA534%2D24B25325D9F9%7D
We need stimulus, and fast!!!
Credit-Card Pinch Leads Consumers To Rein In Spending
By Robin Sidel, Sudeep Reddy and Jane J. Kim
Word Count: 1,110 | Companies Featured in This Article: Citigroup, Capital One Financial , American Express, J.P. Morgan Chase, Barclays, McDonald’s
America’s love affair with credit cards may be headed for the rocks.
Credit-card delinquencies are rising across the nation, a sign that some Americans are at the end of their rope financially. And these mounting delinquencies, in turn, have prompted banks to tighten lending standards, keeping people who have maxed out their cards from finding new sources of credit.
The result could be a sharp pullback in consumer spending that would further weaken the slowing U.S. economy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120243324726552445.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Should this news that the Fed is deeply concerned about inflation risks be taken at face value? ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS.
Mounting Inflation Concerns Weigh on the Fed’s Next Move
By Sudeep Reddy
Word Count: 540
Federal Reserve officials are acknowledging increasing weakness in the economy, signaling a willingness to cut rates again at their next meeting. But inflation concerns are rising among some officials, indicating the magnitude of their next move may be a matter of contention.
In speeches this week, policy makers said they are expecting a sharp economic slowdown during the first half as the housing slump, credit crunch and market turmoil take a toll on consumers and businesses.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120244473994353301.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
how can anyone still raise the question after what we have seen in the last year …
for the FED (and other central banks) ‘inflation concerns’ is nothing more than a smoke screen to hide what they are doing to the currency from the general public.
If this guy ever runs for higher office, he gets my vote.
Cuomo Belittles Credit Raters’ Reforms
N.Y. Attorney General to Continue Probe of S& P, Moody’s
By Karen Freifeld
Bloomberg News
Friday, February 8, 2008; Page D02
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that “supposed reforms” by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service, which gave high ratings to subprime debt that later plummeted, are “too little, too late.”
S&P, the world’s largest credit rating service, announced earlier in the day what it called “a broad set of new actions” to strengthen its ratings. Moody’s, the second-largest credit-rating company, said this week it was considering a new rating system based on numbers.
“Both S&P and Moody’s are attempting to make piecemeal changes that seem more like public relations window dressing than systemic reform,” Cuomo said in a statement.
Cuomo said he would continue to investigate “the role played by the ratings agencies in the mortgage meltdown.” The companies and Fitch Ratings have been scrutinized by regulators and lawmakers for giving high ratings to subprime-mortgage securities and for reacting too slowly as defaults rose.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/07/AR2008020703758.html
“All Real Estate is Local”
Or is it?
Check out these cool national maps for the good ole U.S. of A. and decide for yourself…
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/retro-MORTGAGE0807.html
UK National Debt Jumps by 18% (£100 million) in One Day
Sadness can trigger a unconscious chain of emotions leading to extravagant purchases.
Guess who said this: “Both parties and both houses seem to be spending like drunken sailors. No offense to the Navy, of course.”