Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For February 10, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
May 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
I took these photos yesterday.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/florida/224492-2008-florida-housing-market-thread-jan-54.html
Demolation cranes? Bulldozers?
It’s a holding pen for an auction company.
When I drive by there it always seems to be full. CNN or someone did a report of this guy this past week where he said business is booming. He said 80% of equipment sold right now is going out of state and that 60+% of that is going out of the country. I guess our cheap dollars mean something to someone.
I believe that’s just off I-4 near Orlando. We saw it on our recent trip. The field is immense. Local paper says upcoming auction will even be attended by foreign buyers. I guess so; no one here needs that stuff right now.
Sweet baby jeebus! Here’s an old aerial. I;d love to see an updated one!
http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o72/muggyFL/jeebus.jpg
Front page of today’s Orlando Sentinel in the lower, right-hand corner has an advertisement for an absolute auction on some thousandaire’s former mansion. I’ve never noticed ads like that on the front page.
CNN reports 87% of Washington precints in. Ron Paul got 21% of the vote in the Republican Primary! That’s big! 11% in Kansas is good too!
“Ron Paul got 21% of the vote in the Republican Primary!”
I guess it’s OK for them to report the truth, now. I think Paul actually got a lot more than the measly 3% that was reported in Florida.
I recently moved to the Tampa Bay area and was surprised how may Paul signs I saw everywhere. It could be that there is just a highly motivated but small group of supporters. However, many of the signs that I saw were on home lawns, indicating substantial support.
So if 21% is big, what is 68%?
21% is huge when you are not an Establishment candidate - when you accept zero dollars from PACS and large corporations.
Amen, Brother Chip. Twenty-one percent is also huge considering 99% of the American public have been brainwashed by the MSM into a state of zombified acceptance of whatever Establishment-annointed Hollow Men are put forward as candidates. Among the dwindling handful of Americans capable of independent and original thought, I’m guessing Ron Paul is close to #1 despite the de facto MSM blackout on his campaign and the REAL issues facing this country (and no, I’m not referring to Britney’s state of mental health).
http://rabbit-hole-journey.blogspot.com/2007/11/campaign-contributors-of-media-anointed.html
Reminded of the old soviet-era joke about a U.S. vs Soviet Union athletic competition which the U.S. wins. Soviet papers report that their team finished second, while the U.S. team finished next to last.
There is a new round of knife catchers going down in Sacramento. These people got into the market 6-8 months ago and are already bailing. Five NOD’s in one neighborhood. Four people from San Francisco bought these houses for $600-700,000. The assumed bonds of $350/mon and HOA for $125/mon. Their PITI is $4200/mon. Of course they got $50-75,000 cash back by using their friendly mortgage broker.
The properties rent for $2,000/mon….well actually $1525 after the bonds and HOA. Using the typical formula of valuing a house at 12 times the annual rent, these homes should sell for $220,000! The banks are listing them at $350,000, but there are too many of them to sell. More discounting is likely. We need a new round of knife catchers to step up, and they already are circling.
You can see the soccer mom’s in their SUV’s driving slowly around with their clibboards of bank owned houses. Ther is usually a Used House Salesperson following in a Hummer! The buyers have this gaunt look on their faces…..greed combined with fear. I want to stop them and say “go read the Housing Bubble Blog” but I usually just chuckle. Which emotion will win out for the next round?
$50k cash back? Then those speculators don’t lose anything, the cashback is used to pay the mortgage and if house prices go up, they flip for profit and repeat. If prices drop, they bail out with little or no out of pocket loss. They even get forgiven by the IRS
no fair. Do any speculators actually lose money?
Bye FL,
You may rest assured these flippers are not happy. Their cousin, the mortgage broker, got them into these deals with the promise of $100,000’s in profit. Now they have the IRS breathing down their backs to pay taxes on the cash out proceeds. It is ordinary income in the year it is received. When they file their 2007 tax returns, if they don’t declare the proceeds and pay the extra taxes, it will be audit time. Who wants that? Penalties, interest, etc.
Some of them bought new luxury cars, which they now hide from the repo man. They come out of their houses and look up and down the street before they take their cars out. In fact, one repo tow truck driver pulled a Mercedes right out of the open garage the other day, without even getting out of his tow truck! It was an unbelievable move, comparable to you taking a burrito out of the microwave.
All these speculators have late payments and foreclosures on their records. Several of them have college age children, and they can forget about co-signing for student loans. Their credit cards have gone from 9% to 21%.
I will venture to say these four families mourn the day their cousin lead them down the path of greed to buy five houses in Sacramento. They are locked in a nightmare that is only beginning for them.
This sort of activity I consider criminal . These damn speculators/con artists pushed up comps by these fake cash back deals .
Preventing fraud use to be one of the biggest reason for underwriting loans and having appraisals . When did the lenders agents decide that it wasn’t part of their duty in underwriting loans to prevent fraud (that they got these big commissions on )?
Just to be fair to investors in the secondary market ,I’m sure that they thought that some check and balances existed . How could the Wall Street model makers of risk not consider fraud as a major factor in loan risk ? I am not surprised that Investors are suing the Investment Banks/lenders and the Rating Agencies.
When CEO’s use the excuse that putting people in houses was a attempt to make it possible for lower income appliciants to get affordable housing ,it isn’t true . These toxic loans were not affordable and often times the interest rates would go up over a fair market rate ,even for a sub-prime buyer .
I never thought I would see the day in which shills on TV would talk about people not being able to afford the loan they already got ,rather than a talk about people not being able to qualify for a loan in the first place . Not enough talk about the loan market being a crime wave in which the borrowers were part of it .Not enough outrage about the faulty lending machine that dared to fu-k with peoples lives . Not enough talk about the realtors breach of duty in bringing unqualified buyers to listings and just turning them over to creep criminal loan agents . Why are the PR people trying to convince the public that the laws were not in place to prevent these loan crimes , and this is a issue of violation of current laws and not a need for new laws .Just look at all the “Good Faith in Business Transaction “, laws for starters .
HW, you are right on the mark. There should be a “fiduciary” law for mortgage brokers and a new way to order appraisals through a central clearing house, where the agent, buyer, seller and mortgage broker never get to know who does the appraisal. The clearing house should be run by an appraisal organization or governmental entity, and assign appraisals based on quality of the report, not how high a value they can justify.
There are exceptions…94 Coachella Valley, one loan brkr who I trusted went to bat for me with underwriters HE knew the area and they did not. He knew the values of one prop next to another.
That was ‘94-’2000. Most values down, not alot of smushed subdivs and virtually no McManses, there does need to be some checks and balances, None todate.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/BushsBigGiftToWalMart.aspx?page=all
RE: There should be a “fiduciary” law for mortgage brokers and a new way to order appraisals through a central clearing house, where the agent, buyer, seller and mortgage broker never get to know who does the appraisal. The clearing house should be run by an appraisal organization or governmental entity, and assign appraisals based on quality of the report, not how high a value they can justify.
FHA/HUD used to have such a system. It was called a “FEE Panel” and consisted of legit appraisers who had demonstrated educational and experience qualifications.
Assignments were put out by a central FHA/HUD office on a rotational basis.
However, all the johnny-come-lately newly minted number hitter appraiser’s along with their mortgage company taskmasters, bitched about the exclusionary
factor and Congress in their infinite wisdom dissolved the panel in 1992.
Instead of impartial appraiser assignment, the system now allowed the mortgage operatives to pick their own appraisers.
With a deliberately low standards bar set for qualification, legions of incompetants became certified for FHA/HUD appraisers, much facilitated the ability of loan hucksters to shop for a pre-determined value.
A sizeable number of former appraisers convened in
Washington DC to protest that with the new system they found themselves devoid of ANY FHA related appraisal work because it was all being funnelled to the known number hitters.
Your 22% approval rated Congress in action.
Same thing in Sarasota. One of my so called savvy investor friends bought a couple Condos about 40-50% off. These units were going for $250k at the height of the boom. He got them around 125k. He put them up for sale at 175k. All he keeps getting is low ball offers offering him 90k. Meanwhile, he has property taxes and insurance now coming due. He wants to rent it out but has bad experience since many renters now fall behind on the mortgage and tear the place up. The place he bought for 125k needed about 15k worth of repairs.
His words to me, “I think I caught a falling knife”
His words to me, “I think I caught a falling knife”
admitting you are powerless is the 1st step
I would be powerless not to smirk and guffaw openly at this impaled knife-catcher.
Same thing in Sarasota. One of my so called savvy investor friends bought a couple Condos about 40-50% off.
Saying “40-50% off” on a condo is like the sign in the Persian Rug store tht says “40-50% off”. It’s meaningless when prices were simply made-up in the first place
I have a bad feeling about this next week.
Friday we went shopping — two large malls were empty. I received massive unadvertised discounts at Bloomingdales, never had that happem nefore.
Our favorite restaurant was almost empty, Friday at seven thirty. 3 months ago it’d be a 2 hour wait.
Yesterday we went (used) car shopping. 2004 Land Rover Discovery (yes, we drive off road all summer in the Kettle Moraine where we own property). Dealers were ALL dead. $26k asking price, settled for $16500 cash. 3 dealers said noto $17.5k. The first called with an acceptance which I countered. After signing the papers, dealers 2 & 3 called accepting offers.
Last night we met a wealthy friend at a members-only bar. It was dead. They wanted me to renew for 2009 a year early for 20% off. I did, for 50% off for 2 years. Hope they last.
This morning, I check my one remaining bank account (I now hoard cash in paper & metals). Two checks I deposited bounced, from decent-sized 50+ year-old companies who have LOCs.
Today I am cutting ALL spending for 60-days but true necessities.
Anyone feeling eerie?
I made a couple of outrageous lowball offers to Ebay sellers of some really nice things. Both jumped on them immediately. Made me feel like I’d still offered too much and I was almost embarrassed to send them in the first place.
I just wish that I had some offers to consider from my ebay listings.
I have been selling coins on ebay for about 6 years and I can tell you it is a dead market. I can only sell when I offer well below the US Mint price. I may just take it to the bank because after paying ebay and paypal I would receive less then the actual coin value.
If you really want to make some money look at the coin listings for fed wrapped nickel and quarter rolls. Sometimes you can buy 10 nickel rolls with shipping for under $2 per roll. I have seen 2 quarter rolls sell for around $15.
This is an account from a bigger coin show in Florida, held last month…
From Coin World newspaper:
“Reports circulated on the bourse floor of dealers selling key-date coins below the prices dealers would normally pay, in order to obtain sufficient cash to acquire gold bullion and silver bullion, both of which offered quicker profits.”
_____________________________________________________
Key-date coins are the most desirable and easiest sold coins, and coin dealers are blowing them out to other dealers, below market value?
Beware of ALL collectibles…
I’m struggling with this a bit - by nickel roll do you mean a roll of 40 nickels that would have a face value of $ 2.00. - and people are selling these for less than $ 2???? I guess they make up for the loss by selling in volume.
There are vast legions of people selling stuff on eBay, that proudly lose money on virtually every transaction…
Yes, that is what is happening.
WTF? Why not just take them down to Commerce Bank and have them commented? This doesn’t make any sense at all.
Have them counted.
Sure it makes sense, if you profit on the “shipping” fee.
I’ll sell you a roll of nickels right now (I’d have to go buy one) for 10 cents. Shipping and handling is $15.
How much did you offer? $140/sq-ft ?
well at least everything on long island ny is just fine
apologies if already posted
btw this was their front page today
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-enecon0210,0,2833159.story
If they didn’t get mad, you offered too much. Sounds like good experience though for the next time you lowball even lower.
Insult pricing
“Our favorite restaurant was almost empty, Friday at seven thirty. 3 months ago it’d be a 2 hour wait.”
Your experience mirrors mine, about which I posted in yesterday’s bits buckets. We visited two restaurants in San Diego this weekend during times that normally are two of the busiest (Friday evening / Saturday lunch hour). Instead of the usual 1/4 hour+ wait, both restaurants were less than 25 pct occupied.
I fly a lot for business and noticed Miami airport was DEAD on Friday afternoon. Also visited a TGI Friday’s restaurant on Thursday and the bartender (college student) told me that it was dead and they weren’t making any money, that it has something to do with the economy. I thought it might have to do with charging $10 for a sandwich and fries that costs at most $2.
There is certainly something funny going on. I’m only doing absolutely necessary purchases and paying down debt as quickly as possible. I’m going to sell the extra stuff I have now before the competition is too fierce.
On the other hand, I went shopping at a nearby Walmart Supercenter at midnight today & there were quite a few people shopping.
Midnight is when all the kids who are under 21 go to wal-mart. Busy wal-marts at 12 AM aren’t surprising.
went to mall in northern va…couldnt find a parking spot.
wife went to look at a new volvo. they had one “in the back” warehouse. the guy opened the door and there were hundreds of aston martins…all for folks on a waiting list.
still got a long way to go.
just to add…the only other time i could not find a parking spot in that mall has been at christmas…errr…holiday time i mean.
Same here Michael. Called the local Ichyban yesterday to make a reservation. They only had 2 slots–4:30 and 9:00. Enjoyable meal but we were hurried through to make room for the next wave.
Everyone I know is still taking their spring break trips w/o mention of any worry or concern. Disney World and ski trips still being booked.
I’ve been seeing lots of those new Nissan Miranos, VW Touregs and even smaller, sportier Mercedes around all of a sudden. I guess people traded in their behemoth vehicles for something more pc but it doesn’t seem like the substitutes are budget minded choices.
Malls and restaurants seem to be packed here as well. No evidence of a slowdown in that sort of spending.
Maybe it’s like Dawn of the Dead — the zombies are going the same places they did when alive, but aren’t buying anything.
Same here in San Diego.
We went to the mall (North County Fair) on Saturday evening, and it was pretty full. Parking lot looked just as busy as ever, for this time of year.
Also went to Target on Friday, and it looked like the standard number of shoppers.
Also looked at a few homes, and cars were pulling up behind ours when we were pulling over to look at the flyers.
Still a lot of optimism out there, irrespective of what people are saying.
true carrie ann
i have noticed alot of these ‘crossover vehicles” the ford edge, nissan murano etc
my car is 6 years old has under 52k and runs great
why some people must have a new vehicle every
24 months or so is beyond me unless you drive a ton
I know a guy who trades his in every 6 mo, inherited a boatload of dough from aunt several yrs ago.
Even then. I think getting a new auto more often is dumb money.
I just pulled up the Murano on Edmunds. It’s not the one I was thinking. The one I meant to say is a $60k+ vehicle.
“crossover” is PC for “station wagon”
I thought “crossovers” were the vehicle of choice for crossdressers.
I’m seeing ALOT of new Eurotrash all over NY/NJ/CT in the last 3 months.
WTF is the fascination with that overpriced junk?
What drives me crazy are the people who are leasing low cost cars because they “might get tired of them in 2 yrs.” If there isn’t some business reason for driving a new flashy car (like realtors that know they’re going to be unemployed in 24 months) then save your money, buy a used car and ride it ’til it dies.
no one in DC has been laid off
gov still growing
Thousands of people were laid off in NoVa past several months. Sprint will cut 3000 positions in Reston. Verizon will lay some people too. Couple of banks already cut off 10-25% of their employees. I noticed slowdown in malls around Arl. I have lately luck finding parking right at the entrances. Mall at Pentagon Row used to be extremely busy, but now it is far easier to shop there or eat down at the food court. Year ago, you could not even find free table.
I got to BS on this one. Hundreds of aston martins? That is a very low volumn car. I have a exotic car and the company that shipped it for me ships for Fer. and Aston. They trickle in and off they go to the dealers. In small numbers. No disrespect though.
Lane
Anyone feeling eerie?
Normally that happens after my second glass of Merlot. I’m on the lookout for more bad news on housing. Most of us agree that the Fed’s interest rate cuts and the puny tax stimulus won’t cause a huge wave of knifecatchers to put money down on a house when the Case Shiller index shows house prices are still way too high for incomes. So we can all anticipate at least another 10% in price cuts for sales of existing houses and new houses this year, at least those fewer and fewer houses that do sell.
The sensible stimulus is to stop spending money on the war in Iraq and to make real permanent tax cuts. Those won’t cause people to buy houses still. But they will help the job market and stock market. The only stimulus to cause people to buy houses is if their prices drop 60% from the 2006 peak prices.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/BushsBigGiftToWalMart.aspx?page=all
Don’t know if I posted this here, sorry if it is duplicate.
Bush’s BIG GIFT to Walmart who donates constantly to republican party.
We went to a Circuit City in Orange County CA Saturday afternoon and my husband commented on how few people were there. The Levitz two doors down was finishing off the last bits of its going out of business sale at 80% off. Pretty depressing.
circuit city is a horrible store always depressing imo
levitz is just about done here as well
i was shopping for furniture last year and went into levitz
and the stuff was crap and priced high for crap
on the east coast there is this place raymour and flanigan that has opened up locations all over the place from nj-mass
and they offer no interest for 3 years
well we bought some stuff there and when it was time to pay
the salesguy is like you can take our credit and pay x a month for like 36 months or so and the total was like $1800 more without any interest then if you paid cash
i paid cash but the salesguy who was really nice guy told me
when people are approved for say 3k they will spend every last dime even buying crap like a lamp to squeeze the last penny out
maybe they will just walk away from the payments on the crap just like their house
what’s it like to be you?
you have the Martin Mull middle class bluse
“threw my drink across the lawn”
My in-laws took me out for my b-day last night. 2 hour wait at the Texas Road House.
Not everyone got the recession news.
FIL is, I think, more than a bit afraid. He sells trucks(not pickups, real big trucks like semis and ro-ro bin/container haulers). Business is dead. One local company had ordered half a dozen container haulers. Now they are not taking position. They are pushing him off week by weel. His dealership is paying interest on the trucks, and if the customers don’t take possesion of them soon, it will get ugly.
Im seeing this as well.
Yes, its getting ugly. Service is barely keeping the ship from sinking. Parts price increases has slowed significantly. Recievables have pulled back from 90 to 60, and I continue to choke down credit for poor performing. I have cut-off the builders. Laid off 30% of the workforce. Cutting back hours, and overtime is a thing of the past.
I am having trouble getting out in front of the sh*tstorm.
The decline in the sale of semis and straight trucks has more to do with the incentives and changes in design requirements mandated to be implemented in the 2008 model year. Truck users and fleets overstocked on the 06 and 07 models to avoid the pitfalls of buying the new, unknown and untested emissions systems on the new units.
Combined with the equipment makers incentives, they sucked up 2 or 3 years worth of demand in one year.
US car makers did the same with the big 0% and employee discounts.
Interesting. We have some ‘08 buses in our fleet now. They have baffles on the exhaust, per EPA requirements. Don’t see any exhaust, but didn’t really see any on ‘07 either, except for some hot air.
The ’08’s do have an unfortunate habit of exhaust system failure leading to engine shut-down, with no override, so, oops, gotta call the wrecker to haul it back to shop… sad. (On the good side, this does not occur frequently.)
I wonder if there was a way to fly, on say 10-year old jets, instead of one made last month?
How safe is “lucky” 777?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/7194086.stm
“The worker also said the pilot had told him all the electronics had also failed.”
“He said he had no warning - it just went,” the worker added.”
“It’s a miracle. The man deserves a medal as big as a frying pan.”
Fun rumor I heard was that it landed barely over the head of the Prime Minister’s limo driving past the end of the runway at the time. They thought they were going to die. The party then had to go and get on a plane after that experience.
I also accepted a 2 party Cashiers check for an engine overhaul from an out of state bank on a lien sale…2nd lien sale in fiscal year….lat time it happened..never.
Its not getting bad, its already pretty f-ing bad.
I am also observing behaviors that are not consistent to quick recovery: these include hoarding of food, empty shelf space at local grocers, panic selling of “treasured toys”, and increased numbers of homeless shanty near remote parts of the river, associates calling me from ages past who are concerned about WTF to do, and too many men looking for work.
Business was off by 16% in January….I think this ones got some legs behind it.
One indicator that to me said, “something’s amiss,” was the huge increase in the number of people who showed up at the 5 Feb caucuses for my precinct. Easily 5X the previous turnouts. People are worried and scared and sense that “something wicked this way comes.”
My in-laws took me out for my b-day last night. 2 hour wait at the Texas Road House.
I have seen uneven business at restaurants out here. Some places are still busy, others are dead.
Texas Road House is still busy here. Good quality food at a low price = value.
Outback actually hired a blimp to advertise, Bonefish Grill put ads in the paper, and TGIF looks semi-dead (compared to earlier). TGIF was rated “worst value” by Consumer Reports subscribers.
RE: I have seen uneven business at restaurants out here. Some places are still busy, others are dead.
Eateries will collapse by the score in this shakeout.
The business type is virtually saturated
Did some suburban shopping yesterday. A T-Mobile store at a strip mall had four salespeople standing around with no customers. They all turned around to look out the window as we passed - and kept on going. Even though I need to replace my T-Mobile phone ASAP, I still prefer buying it online.
Also went to a Meijer store (large WMT-like store). The side of the store with electronics, auto, toys, clothes was a ghost town. The opposite side with the food and pharmacy was quite crowded. The difference was very pronounced - eerie indeed.
The only store on our rounds that was doing well across the board was the Japanese grocery/department store. That’s no surprise, many customers there are expats and probably all are doing well at good jobs and are good savers who don’t skimp on their food.
February is a slow retail month, March won’t be much better. Yes, something doesn’t seem quite right although it is not yet overly obvious to many.
I was at best buy looking at the big screens Sat. The store was maybee a little quiet for prime time Saturday shopping but the salespeople were like flies. Three of ‘em came up and asked if I needed any help. Three salespeople at Best Buy.
New Braunfels TX for lunch at the riverside places (Gristmill, etc). They started slow at 11:30pm but when we were leaving at 12:30pm they were packed. Didn’t look like tourists to me, looked like working people on lunch break. $12 lunches still selling fine here.
A.D.A.!
North of South?
(yes, we drive off road all summer in the Kettle Moraine where we own property).
Sure is beautiful!
Leigh
er…north or south.
Just took a week long ski trip to Jackson Hole Wyoming. We scored a great deal, only 800 per person for airfare, 3 days lift tickets and a top of the line 3 bedroom condo for 5 nights. LOTS of euros and aussies on the slopes, few Yanks, and NO Californians…except myself.
They were trying to sell the condos we stayed in for 1.8 mill!?!
I guess it’s different in Jackson Hole, WY. I read somewhere the city fathers lease a condo for the local police chief to live in, otherwise he couldn’t afford to live there due to the high condo prices & low pay he gets. Most all the local workers commute from far away.
Anyone feeling eerie?
__________________________________________
Was at one of the most popular restaurants in Anchorage (discoursing on the 3 cent nickel (by a show-and-tell collection), which one of my buddies didn’t believe existed), usually filled with gen X/Y guys and cuties - almost 25% empty from 8PM to 11PM, pool tables open, easy parking…very eerie, even at -19F…
AB you singing my song.
I used to love shopping.
Now I’m a hoarder.
My biggest adjustment so far is not buying those giant sized packages of meat or fish at Costcos.
They usually cost thirty two bucks.
No Costcos for single people this year!
I had no problem eating three rib eyes or a prime rib roast.
Tupperware works great.
Got soup?
Hey ouro, start cutting back on the quantity/frequency of meat if you really want to save money. I’m vegetarian (no, not the holier than thou kind, couldn’t care less what other people eat), and I’ve noticed my food bill is typically lots lower than friends who buy meat. I’ve noticed huge increases in the price of even high-fat hamburger.
well … sometimes chicken parts can be cheaper than tofu
can’t beat dry beans on price, though
Utah, do you have a Costco?
I can find something to buy in every single section.
Eating fish, meat and chicken helps keep me lean.
But as I said no Costco.
Hell no.
No Costco.
Shoot, now I want the three pack of soy milk they sell.
If I go, that and salmon will be it.
Costco? The nearest grocery store is 60 miles, no Costco there even. I go about 2x a month, sometimes less. I’m learning a lot about edible plants, some are pretty tasty. For example, you can roast the flesh of prickly pear cactus over a fire and it’s quite tasty. The blossoms make wonderful jam. But it’s a PITA, I’d rather just have a nice polenta lasagna with a glass of wine and an organic salad. LOL
BTW, watch it with the tofu and soy products. Google “reasons to not eat soy” -
Went to Home Depot yesterday afternoon. I needed some bulk light bulbs, weatherstripping, and a stepladder. I love the Feit Electric maintenance packs of 130V bulbs - they last many times longer than standard bulbs. They also have inexpensive twisty fluorescent lamps which save lots of money for outside safety and decorative lighting around the apartments.
Anyway, the place was mostly empty. The few people in line were making small purchases like seedling plants and fertilizer. They only had two checkout stands operating, and the lines were short, like three deep. Three employees were sitting behind a services counter, chatting and killing time. I parked in the first spot of a row nearest the door.
Of course late Saturday afternoon is not exactly prime time for Home Depot, but still - I’ve never seen the place that empty.
Dada, good luck on that Land Rover. I had a Discovery and it had more things fall apart.. a friend who loves them tells me they’re mechanic’s vehicles, you always need to fix something. Certainly my experience. They don’t hold their value at all, either. I really liked it on the back roads, better than any vehicle I’ve owned (except my Toyota FJ Cruiser), but I never knew if the darn thing was going to start or not, kind of unsettling when the nearest mechanic is 100 miles away.
My brother has refused to shop at Costco forever.
He says it is a socialist corp.
I gave him the same great meat rap I just gave Utah.
Bye Costco.
LOL!
What makes Costco socialist? They take much better care of their employees than Wal-Mart does. I don’t mind paying higher costs for companies that show some basic decency toward their employees.
Never, ever buy a British-made car. Overpriced, poorly engineered pieces of crap. The unions have such a stranglehold that it’s impossible to fire assembly-line workers for any infraction, and their work ethic shows it. On Land Rovers especially, the parts and maintenance will eat you alive.
We are notifying customers that all our accounts are moved to pre-pay from standard Net15 to Net30. I
Give them 5% off for using a credit card and paying instantly. Wait, it didn’t go through…
Bills are too large. Think infrastructure services company.
Can you what business you are in?
Communications infrastructure. Ranging from engineering to lighting up fiber systems to managing server farms that rely on it.
What compelled you to buy eurotrash?
Californian short sellers are SOL on federal tax forgiveness of phantom home equity wealth effect income
Homeowners get break for foreclosure losses
New law is not a cure-all, though
By Mark Schwanhausser
SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS
February 10, 2008
Federal lawmakers scored some political points in late December by easing the rules that can leave homeowners who lose their homes in foreclosure owing taxes on phantom income when lenders cancel some of the debt they owe.
“When you’re worried about making your payments, higher taxes are the last thing you need to worry about,” President Bush said when he signed the bill, which is expected to save U.S. homeowners $650 million.
But the new law shouldn’t be taken as a cure-all. The federal bill has several limitations. California still plays by the old rules. And the bill does nothing for the even bigger number of consumers who trigger phantom income when lenders cancel credit card debts.
“It’s another one of those smoke-and-mirror things,” said Daniel D. Morris, a partner with Morris + D’Angelo in San Jose. “It’s feel-good legislation.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080210/news_lz1b10losses.html
Californian’s are mostly not impacted by the federal tax law changes to the extent that their loans were non-recourse:
http://tinyurl.com/ys4orn
“First, in some states, such as California, all purchase-money home loans are required to be “nonrecourse” debt, which means the lender can’t pursue the borrower for additional money that’s still owed after the property is sold.”
“The distinction is crucial because the lender can pursue the debt on a recourse loan even if a foreclosure or short sale occurred; but without recourse, there is no debt to be forgiven and thus no ordinary-income tax liability for the borrower.”
“The new tax break means borrowers who have a recourse loan also can avoid the tax liability.”
In a nutshell, if the loan was non-recourse, there never was a tax liability in the event of a foreclosure or short sale.
In California ,if the borrower refinanced they lose the non-recourse status . Also, I seem to remember if any fraud is detected in the obtainment of a loan ,the non-recourse status goes out the window . I just find it hard to believe that Lenders in the final analysis are going to lose sometimes 300k or 400k a crack on deals that were result of loan fraud .
Think of it this way: How many lawyers would they need to sue all of those fraudsters? Can enough lawyers be rounded up and suits files before the statute of limitations runs out, or they have to clean up the deals in bulk due to financial pressure?
You have a good point sm landlord ,which makes me think they are going to go after the bigger cases of loss by fraud .
“phantom income when lenders cancel credit card debts”
Why are they calling this “phanom” income? The borrowers used their credit cards to spend. If they don’t have to return that debt, it becomes FREE money. Why shouldn’t it be taxable as income?
It’s not fair if I have to pay taxes on the money I earn, but borrowers in default don’t have to pay taxes on the money they effectively stole from lenders. JMHO.
“phantom income”
How about phantom felony?
“The subprime mortgage mess: 5 myths put to rest”
“Myth 1: The “subprime crisis” was unexpected and it will ruin the financial system.
‘The good thing is that the banking regulatory system so far has done a good job containing the fallout. The subprime situation is not going to harm, in any substantial way, the banking industry. What we’re seeing now is more of a sense of panic that will cause more financial losses than anything caused by non-performing loans.’
Myth 2: Poor first-time homeowners who never could have been expected to make mortgage payments or cavalier investors who “flipped” properties to make quick speculative bucks are typical subprime borrowers.
Most subprime borrowers — nearly 90 percent — aren’t first-time home buyers, and fewer still are the flippers using subprime financing to turn junk bungalows into posh digs on cable TV shows, according to studies by the nonprofit Center for Responsible Lending in Washington.
Myth 3: Once borrowers fall behind on payments or lapse into default, banks want to take their homes.
Of 384,000 foreclosure starts studied by Mortgage Bankers Association economists in the third quarter of 2007, more than half of the borrowers received either modified loans or new repayment plans.
The rest either abandoned their homes or didn’t respond to foreclosure notices, leaving banks no option but to seize the properties.
Myth 4: Local banks will suffer from the subprime implosion elsewhere.
Aside from the Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s $118 million write-down for potentially risky mortgage-backed securities — a pittance compared to Merrill Lynch’s $2.2 billion in losses or the $18.1 billion impacting Citigroup — Pittsburgh’s lending institutions are cautiously optimistic about weathering the storm without long-term loss.
PNC reported a 53 percent tumble in fourth-quarter profits because of “credit deterioration” tied to underperforming commercial loans, not subprime residential mortgages.
Myth 5: No one can make money on mortgage securities in the midst of the meltdown.
Credit risk experts at Downtown-based mutual fund manager Federated Securities warned years ago that residential mortgage-backed securities appeared to be increasingly dicey deals; they spent money elsewhere to protect clients.
By avoiding the subprime woes, Federated now can pounce on mortgages backed by federal housing agencies such as Freddie Mac, where defaults are rarer and returns are richer than what are found in government bonds.”
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_551474.html
“By avoiding the subprime woes, Federated now can pounce on mortgages backed by federal housing agencies such as Freddie Mac, where defaults are rarer and returns are richer than what are found in government bonds.”
But I thought govt bonds were guaranteed by the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam. It ain’t necessarily so for Freddie Mac’s debt; as this is a private (though govt sponsored) enterprise, wouldn’t default on its bonds result in bankruptcy and a wipe out of anyone holding its debt?
“‘The good thing is that the banking regulatory system so far has done a good job containing the fallout.”
See true inflation and accelrating “Super Stagflation”.
“Poor first-time homeowners ”
All Traunches have performed exceedingly poorly, not just sub-prime.
“more than half of the borrowers received either modified loans or new repayment plans.”
= new Money to loan will be increasingly harder to find as investors will get tired of the Guberment breaking their contracts.
“Pittsburgh’s lending institutions are cautiously optimistic ”
The time for “Caution” was 2-3 years ago.
“Federated now can pounce on mortgages backed by federal housing agencies such as Freddie Mac”
Ah yes, the lovely GSE redistribution of wealth.
“new Money to loan will be increasingly harder to find as investors will get tired of the Guberment breaking their contracts”
One argument I recall being set forth is that the market will break the contracts anyway if the gubmint does not step in to do it. Funny, isn’t it, how the market is best left to its own devices when real estate is always going up, but the gubmint knows best when real estate goes down?
All of the jerks like Kudlow go from “Free Market Capitalists” to “Free Us From This Market Capitalists” at the first sign of trouble for these greedy monsters.
Exactly. Kudlow and his ilk believe in private sector profit and public sector risk.
There is a jail cell reserved for Kudlow, Laffer and Club for Growth crime syndicate. I suspect they all know it yet ignore it at their own peril.
importing inflation:
SHENZHEN, China — A year ago, Mei Meng’s factory sold foot-tall plush teddy bears, rabbits and ducks for export to the United States for $1.30 each. Now they’re $2, and he doesn’t rule out the possibility that prices will go up again.
Likewise, manufacturers say wholesale prices of cowboy hats made in China have gone from $1.65 to $2, cotton duvet covers from $3.30 to $4, portable electric ranges from $9 to $10 and office water dispensers rom $50 to $56.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/08/AR2008020803604.html
More like “recycling inflation”. China is experiencing inflation because it won’t let its currency rise against the USD.
Result is higher prices in the US no matter what.
Should be ‘it won’t let its currency rise fast enough against the USD’. The CNY is up slightly over 15% against the USD since changing the peg to a (heavily managed) float a couple of year ago.
My view is that the Chinese Government are happy to see a rise of about 5% a year. This gives them zero net return on their massive Treasury holdings, but not an actual loss.
Zero nominal net return, negative real return.
Push meets Shove…
Americans are suddenly not buying Chinese goods @ the old prices, just as China realizes it must increase the cost on every new item it exports to us, to keep up with inflation.
It also means, that to acquire an animal from Mei Meng’s zoo, will require 4 Quarters to play, instead of 2, although the skill level required to capture your quarry, doesn’t inflate.
China’s increasing trade surplus belies a stopping or even a slowing of purchases by Americans.
“Here is a list of companies we’ve confirmed are “Exporting America.” These are U.S. companies either sending American jobs overseas, or choosing to employ cheap overseas labor, instead of American workers.”
CNN
http://tinyurl.com/2×38bj
The recent increase in price of Chinese manufactured goods by 8% has been calculated to add only 0.25% to the inflation rate. A minor effect on the American consumer compared to energy.
“A year ago, Mei Meng’s factory sold foot-tall plush teddy bears, rabbits and ducks for export to the United States for $1.30 each. Now they’re $2, and he doesn’t rule out the possibility that prices will go up again.”
Oh, NO! Not the plush stuffed animals! I can’t live without them! I guess I’ll have to eat and drive less to afford stuff from China, woe is me.
Palmy, don’t despair, there’s TONS of those critters at your local goodwill. For some reason, they seem to proliferate.
But I’m with you, who needs all that crap?
wholesale prices of cowboy hats made in China have gone from $1.65 to $2
That’s funny for so many reasons…
IMO, it is many of the home builders who are looking pretty marginal these days. I don’t see any buyers, period (though I know they must be out there, as the local sales statistics prove it).
My take: The phantom demand created by subprime loans, which let myriad San Diegans buy homes they cannot afford, helped area builders to become fools of randomness.
Shrink to fit
Home builders size up the market and downsize
By Emmet Pierce
STAFF WRITER
February 10, 2008
For decades, tract homes in Southern California have been getting larger, but the current housing slump has led some local builders to downsize single-family dwellings to increase affordability and boost sales.
(PEGGY PEATTIE / Union-Tribune
The small-lot homes at Stoney Creek at Riverwalk in Santee embrace the notion that less is more.)
“The folks we are seeing in the market today are marginal buyers,” said Steve Doyle, Brookfield Homes’ president for the San Diego region. “They can’t afford to buy a $600,000 standard home that San Diego has been offering the last couple of years.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080210/news_1h10smal-jmp.html
Those small-lot homes in the photo are just as fugly as big-lot McMansions, IMO.
Lowering the size of the house with the same price/sq. foot ratio is not an improvement. The builders are scared to admit that sheeple are tired of paying $300/mo electric bills and outrageous taxes. Never forget that it costs money to furnish those extra rooms.
Drive throught the local version of the Tampa McMansion and many windows have coverings that look like bed sheets.
Housing crisis slashes results at Weyerhaeuser
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/301907
Real estate segment earnings sank 93 per cent to $22 million in the fourth quarter as the U.S. housing market crumbled.
The affects are far and wide.
Friend in E. Oregon says jobs are scarce and the timber industry is drying up. People are getting nervous (anecdotal).
If people in that industry aren’t used to cycles then the mold has got to them.
Fears of recession for nation, Long Island worsens
Newsday
written byRandi F. Marshall
02/10/08
http://tinyurl.com/2y6m2a
Locally and nationally, the economic picture has darkened considerably in the last month, with perhaps worse news about employment and home prices still to come. Recent government statistics and other data have fueled fears of a recession — defined as two quarters in a row of negative growth — among some economists.
Over the last two weeks alone, the news included falling home sales and home prices, economic activity that’s barely growing, job losses nationwide and a contracting service sector.
“I think the weakness is centered in housing and mortgage finance but the problems are now bleeding out,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pa.
Goodness, you mean, Long Islanders moght feel the fallout!!!
Say it ain’t so!!!
And another…
http://tinyurl.com/235kwd
Some suggest price declines on the Island are worse than the data show. In many communities, prices are 15 percent off where they were a year ago, according to Home Buyers’ Resource Center broker-owner .Bethany Marten of Baldwin.
There’s some evidence that the region’s price declines could steepen even further.
Consider the ratio between home prices and incomes. As of December, Nassau’s median home price of $447,500 was 5.6 times the median household income in the county, while Suffolk’s $370,000 median price was 5.2 times income, according to Irwin Kellner, chief economist with North Fork Bank and Marketwatch.com. Two years ago, those ratios were even higher. But as the market becomes more balanced, and buyers have to meet more stringent lending criteria, the ratios will have to come down, Kellner said.
Nationally, median home prices are, on average, 3.2 times median household income, he said.
To get to a point where prices are four times incomes, median home prices would have to fall 24 percent in Suffolk and 29 percent in Nassau.
“By this measure, housing prices have a ways to go before people can step up and buy them,” Kellner said.
There’s additional evidence that price drops are far from over on the Island. The number of contracts signed in the first five weeks of the year is 30 percent below last year, said Century 21 Laffey Associates chief executive Emmett Laffey of Greenvale.
3.2 x income? Okay, am I missing something here?
danni i posted this as well but it has not shown up yet
pretty gloomy times ahead on li
i am really preparing for some bad times locally
yes even in nyc-if things get bad in europe and tourism
slows in ny the s$$$ will really hit the fan
And yet, is just me or is all off NY (atleast the NYC/LI area) walking around with delusions of grandeur.
Check this out. It’s two blocks from where I live.
http://tinyurl.com/2bqdf8
It also happens to be on a fairly busy road. Take a look at that freakin’ kitchen!!! And the sick part is people around here will get EXCITED over this POS!!!
I should go over and offer 200k….of course, I’d never be able to afford the taxes. LOL
jawboning down the gold price (my snarky comments in quotes):
TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven rich nations on Saturday approved the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April as part of a broad reform of its budget, Italian Economy Minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa said.
Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Jen said the Fund held 103.4 million ounces of gold worth some $92 billion at current market prices. That was up from $23 billion just five years ago.
(What? But gold is too volatile and risky for individual investors, and doesn’t pay dividends.)
“The IMF is rich, if it wants to be,” he wrote in a recent note to clients, issued before the G7’s approval of the gold sales. “This is arguably a good time to consider selling some of these gold holdings and investing the proceeds in financial securities with positive yields.”
(Positive yields? Sell your gold which has quadrupled in value in 5 years and buy some bonds paying 2%? Brilliant)
http://tinyurl.com/2vp4jq
I think there’s an ulterior motive with the proposed Gold sale…
If you were a rat leaving the ship via the mooring lines, and it dawned on you, that you needed to get all of your eggs into one particular Golden basket, where would you buy Billions worth, without drawing attention to yourself?
The IMF selling $92 Billion worth, is enough to satisfy a handful or two of financial vermin, but doesn’t raise enough money to make any difference, in this global financial mess, we call the Earth.
(Positive yields? Sell your gold which has quadrupled in value in 5 years and buy some bonds paying 2%? Brilliant)
Houses doubled, tripled, and sometimes quadrupled in a similar timeframe so we called that a bubble. Now what’s the difference with gold? People rushing out to buy gold are irrational right now.
Gold! It’s different here.
Gold is in a Bubble. You can’t eat Gold.
You can’t eat paper either.
You can drink Gold…
http://estrip.org/elmwood/users/carolinian/images/0706/goldschlager0047.jpg
Agreed… Gold will still probably go up more but fools are rushing in now. The smart money seems to be getting out and rushing into something else.
Thanks for that sage advice Tom. I just sold everything I had. I’m sure you are right. How could I disagree with a cliche like, “fools are rushing in”? That is so insightful. I’ve also heard pundits say, “renting is throwing your money away”. With such well thought out arguments it is hard not to bow to people with such clarity in their views.
Who p!ssed in your coffee this morning? Your belligerent posts are boring and predictable, and your constant sarcasm is wholly unflattering. A bubble in gold? Heresy! Attack the poster. And don’t take profits on any of these gold positions.
I attack the complete lack of insight in the post. It even mentions that smart money is rushing into something else but what could that be? Good posts are either entertaining, informative or both. I have found Tom’s usual posts to be none of these.
I bore you, whoever you are? I will have to try to live with that pain. It will be difficult but I think I can manage. I don’t drink coffee. Have a nice Sunday.
I think you are missing the point. It’s contrairian thinking. Of course I went into Gold back when it was $300 an ounce. I sold recently. Yeah, it will probably go up, but I remember the early 1980’s and saw what happened to it. Of course, Volcker was also breaking the back of inflation.
Also, don’t kid yourself about your posts. You have some good ones, but your average is mediocre at best. Keep trying though, you’ll get there.
But you can use a paper as fuel…like in 1920’s at German Weimar’s Republic
Being contrarian for the sake of it without backing up reasons for why a certain asset cannot go higher in value is just whim. Explain with fundamentals please. Hint: The lower the interest rates, the more money in circulation. The more money printed, the more inflation - ergo precious metals go higher in value. To equal 1980’s gold price, gold must be valued at well over $2000 per ounce. Just because it is above $800 per ounce spot right now does not mean it has peaked, in case that is the only reason you bring up Tom.
“Also, don’t kid yourself about your posts. You have some good ones, but your average is mediocre at best. Keep trying though, you’ll get there.”
Hey, NYCityBoy, I ALWAYS enjoy your posts. Well, almost always, but pretty much always, in the grand scheme of things, looking at it from Sammy’s roost, I guess I could just says the small percentage I don’t enjoy are because I just don’t understand certain things about NYC itself.
Do you eat Federal Reserve Notes?
There is a certain gollumness about some of the gold postings here, so let’s just re-iterate what the information content was in the original posting.
The IMF has decided that it thinks this a good time to profit take on its gold holding. A perfectly reasonable decision to make, and we in the UK could wish that our government had been that smart.
A large amount of gold is consequently going to hit the markets April onwards, and unless it is matched by a similarly sized increase in demand for gold, the price of gold will go down. You read it here first…
People rushing out to buy gold are irrational right now.
True, if a) they decide all of a sudden to get into gold now, when they could have gotten in before 2005 and b) if they are short term gold buyers.
I have other motives: To maintain a 10% asset allocation in bullion (gold and platinum and a little silver). I would not be bummed if gold dropped $300 per ounce this year. And it could certainly do that. In fact, I would be happy to see a 33% cut in gold prices so that I can buy more ounces for the same price I have been buying lately.
Projected world gold production is to decrease this year. What will supply restrictions do about cost? The ongoing devaluation of the dollar will continue for the long term. Precisely because it’s not backed by gold. More interest rate cuts around the world will occur, especially in the U.S. because the next administration and Congress will prefer to have easy money instead of permanent tax cuts. Even with world recession, people gotta eat, gotta build, gotta consume, gotta drive to work. The rate of demand for oil is increasing 3% per year while production is increasing 2% per year. This is conservative and like a big oil tanker that will take a long long time to turn. You don’t have to be a Mathematics major to know that the demand/supply equation will continue to make oil-based products go up in price.
Hence you need to protect your assets from inflation. Oil stocks and precious metals bullion and stocks are the way to do this.
I have been reading many posts this week about the coming inflation. I know Hershey’s is raising the price of chocolate bars. However Wal-Mart said that they were dropping price by 10-30%. That should more then make up for a few chocolate bars. I also know that there are higher prices for other food items. However since everyone here thinks that house prices will drop lower and that we are in for a nasty recession how will inflation become a problem?
If we do have a recession then oil prices will probably drop. If oil does drop and house prices continue to fall I think that this will balance out any increase in the price of food. Therefore inflation should not be a problem.
In addition even if oil starts to rise in a few years when this mess is finally over by then solar power should be in many places. I have been looking at prices for a 4.5 kW system for my zip code (99353) and in the months of May – October I will be getting more power then I can use. This extra power will go to a set of batteries in my garage. When I come home from school each day I will plug my car into the batteries and recharge it by morning. In addition my electricity will be free in that period of time and much cheaper the rest of the year. If the recent news articles prove correct that 4.5 kW system will cost me about $11,000 next year. If it is built in Washington State I will get $4000 from the state. Combine that with the $2000 from the Federal Government and my out of pocket cost drops to $5000. With those incentives my system will pay for itself in 4.16 years. After that it is free electricity for most of the year! FYI Arizona offers over $13,000 right now on a solar power system.
The first solar cell is still generating electricity in Golden, Colorado and has been since the 1950’s. Solar power will only be getting better as technology continues to improve. So the price will be getting lower and lower. I know there are doubters out there but those who are in doubt have not cared to look into solar power. Germany, which is further north then most of the US will have 30% of all of their energy from solar power by 2012. If Germany can do this so can the USA. The government needs to create jobs for people to build solar panels not give us $600 checks.
I think our first 4 bills from the power company, after we solared up, were:
72 Cents, 86 Cents, 71 Cents & then One Dollar.
I hope you are right on solar. I don’t think, hydrogen, ethanol, bio fuels or nuclear are viable alternative energy sources.
One little thing before getting too nuked up…
I read somewhere, that there’s not much easily gettable Uranium, as it’s being snapped-up, and there might be 20 years supply left.
It takes us forever to do anything, so getting new nukes on-line will take about 10 years.
A Faustian bargain for short term gain, and long time problems with waste, down the line.
No thanks.
Nuclear is definitely a viable source. The post above says 30% solar in Germany by 2012. How about their nuclear % right now? US is far behind in nuclear.
To add to my nuclear comment, I am very in favor of making solar economically available. I think solar technology is very close to being an option in rich countries who can afford it. The nuclear option should not be off the US planning table however. We should continue to develop all oil alternates as we are heading for a cliff there.
Colorado is generating 750 megawatts from wind power at this time, up from 250 in 2004.
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3405_nuclear_myths.html
Debunking myths about nuclear energy.
http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2007/2007_40-49/2007_40-49/2007-43/pdf/55-59_742.pdf
[Warning - PDF] The future of nuclear power: Safe, clean, and affordable nuclear energy from meltdown-proof Pebble Bed Modulated Reactors. Not a concept - Westinghouse has already licensed the technology, and the Chinese and South Africans are building them.
Nuclear energy is the only sensible solution. Solar and wind energy requires lots of land and lots of manufacturing (pollution is generated in the process) to create solar panels and wind mills. Nuclear power is cleaner and safer than those other sources that are so ballyhooed by Al Loserman.
Nuclear power is going to make a comeback. Permit applications have begun for new plant construction, and I recall that one has now been approved in this country after a 30 year dry spell. I have my money where my mouth is by investing in Uranium miners and brokers. With the political opposition to nuclear waste recycling, mining is the only source of supply. Even if you don’t buy the peak oil theory, existing sources of power are not going to cut it going forward, especially now that government is cracking down on mercury emissions from coal plants, coal gasification is not panning out on a commercial scale, and fuel cells are not showing much commercial potential. And don’t get me started on the Ethanol fiasco…although I must admit it was tempting to play corn and wheat futures.
Spot uranium is trading at about $75/lb, up from $7/lb in 2001. Somebody is buying the stuff. And if “carbon taxes” kick in, I expect coal fired generation to become less and less economically attractive. Given the political legs that “global warming” seems to have, carbon taxes are looking like a sure thing before long.
Sorry about the ramble…
Come on out here to Utah (and Colorado and New Mexico and Wyoming) and look at all the nuke waste leaching into the rivers (Google Atlas tailings in Moab) (which California drinks) and blowing all over and tell me we’re ready to handle nuclear waste. Ask the Navajo Nation what they think about nuclear waste, where many of their people have died or are dying. Hell, everyone in or close to a uranium mine (and they’re all over the place out here) can tell you stories about sick/dead livestock or someone they knew who was a miner and died.
And if you think the US government is willing/honest/capable of taking care of this waste, here’s one of MANY examples:
“A flash flood [on the Green River, which flows into the Colorado] swept away about 14,000 tons from the tailings pile, and in 1982 the pile was estimated to contain about 123,000 tons of tailings. After the concentrator was closed down, the 9-acre tailings pile was stabilized with a 6-inch thick earthen cover. An onsite pond was positioned to collect surface rainwater runoff from the pile…Groundwater at the Green River concentrator site was found to be contaminated with residual materials generated during the uranium ore processing at the site. This contamination extends downward into the uppermost undisturbed strata below the site. The full extent of groundwater contamination from milling activities is not known.”
http://tinyurl.com/29nw9w
Before talking about nuclear, a person should do some research. The tragedy of this waste is documented over and over and can be found by a simple Google search. Sure nuclear would be nice, but how about in YOUR back yard, not mine (which is where it currently is, forgotten and very toxic).
If the recent news articles prove correct that 4.5 kW system will cost me about $11,000 next year. If it is built in Washington State I will get $4000 from the state. Combine that with the $2000 from the Federal Government and my out of pocket cost drops to $5000.
Where did you get these numbers? They are definately way low. They must be talking 14,000 after incentives are included. I paid 2x that after incetives are applied for a slightly larger system (5.4KW) I would like to see the article it came from because from the research I did and continue to do I don’t see this as probable/likely. I am not bashing solar since I have solar and LOVE IT!!
I plan on selling my gold 1-2 years after the goldbubbleblog.com website hits the internet. Until then I am in. Well in all truthfulness maybe I will get out a tad sooner.
They are going to try and convince everyone that their fiat currencies are superior to gold until it becomes obvious to even the shoeshine boys what is going on.
The “sand in the vaseline” is that the US has effective veto power over the IMF and it takes an act of congress to approve IMF gold sales.
The IMF is another scam organization used to obfuscate and conceal the US hegemony and NWO agenda. Read “confessions of an economic hitman” to better understand the purpose of these organizations.
BTW, anyone else a little miffed to find out that the so called “stimulus plan” is actually a forward tax rebate from next year? The arrogance of our elected officials has hit a new high with trying to pass this BS off as actually free money. I’m not a supporter of the plan because it is likely to be ineffective. However, I don’t like being lied to and I don’t like the idea of sending Iraq a trillion without so much as a raised eyebrow but the second our leadership thinks about returning money to the people it all of a sudden needs to consider this as a tax rebate. Fu*king crooks, all of them.
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
I swear last time I received the handout from the gov, it was nothing more than a refund advance scheme. Same old Sh!T, different time. Anyone else recall what the clods in DC did last time?
Interesting that the organization that prohibits backing any currency with gold owns so much of it. For what purpose?
When the UK’s current Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, was their equivilant to Secretary of the Treasury, he presided over the sell-off of 400 tons of gold - half of the UK’s reserves - when the price of gold was at a rock-bottom price of $255 an oz in 1999. This idiot cost the British treasury billions of pounds, as gold prices are now north of $900 an oz. Maybe the IMF should have a chat with Gordon before they sell off their gold holdings.
I would consider it a long-term positive for gold if the IMF starts selling. The ETFs will gobble it up. And as you point out, monetary authorities have a history of selling at the exactly wrong time. Fading the IMF on this looks like a smart trade to me.
Could sm_landlord please write me at stheller at hotmail dot com? I have a question about tele-consulting.
Thanks.
Check your inbox, re-post if you don’t see anything.
An observation: I ride my bike to Seal Beach, CA most weekends and I’ve been noticing for the past several month an increasing number of tankers anchored offshore sitting high up out of the water, as in empty.
Since these tankers are staying here, instead of plying to seas to go where ever they go to again fill up with oil, the conclusion I reached is our demand for imported oil has greatly diminished.
Another sign of a contracting economy, IMHO.
Consumption. World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million bbl/d in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million bbl/d increase recorded last year. The larger volume gains expected in 2008 and 2009 compared with 2007 mainly reflect higher consumption expected in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly Europe, where weather factors constrained oil consumption last year. Projections of continued strong world economic growth will spur oil consumption gains in a number of non-OECD markets, including China, non-OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries, over the next 2 years.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
“World oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.6 million bbl/d in both 2008 and 2009 compared with the estimated 1 million bbl/d increase recorded last year.”
I have noticed a consistent recent tendency of economic predictions to turn out ‘worse than expected,’ and I can see this prediction’s potential to end up as another one which made the mistaken assumption that trees can grow to the sky.
oil is a renewable resource and elephants fly. Ghawar has been producing more than 50 years. How come the Middle East stopped its production data from being made public several years ago? How come no more vertical wells are being drilled in these super giant fields, but only horizontal wells?
My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a Rolls Royce, I flew in my Gulfstream V, My kid plays video games all day, my grandchildren will ride camels.
Human ingenuity is a renewable resource. When oil becomes sufficiently expensive, we will figure out a better energy base.
We will huh? I’m glad the laws of physics don’t apply to human ingenuity. That’s a relief.
The static analysis trap claims another victim!
“I’m glad the laws of physics don’t apply to human ingenuity.”
I imagine the naysayers were making similar remarks while Wilbur and Orville Wright were busy inventing the first airplane.
The only technology I see saving us would be if someone invented a more effective type of birth control. Such a solution probably won’t be tehnical in nature, but psychological or medical or both.
They already have that technology. It’s called “sending girls to school”. Dramatic impact on fertility. Try it; it works.
Satellite o’er the desert has an interesting overlay of Saudi oil production from google maps against historical production fields.
“…Since wells can be seen on high-resolution satellite images, something can definitely be learned by taking a complete inventory of current wells and comparing with a similar set from several years ago. Since a single satellite view does not have any implicit time information, ideally we would like to have several high-resolution image sets to fully characterize development over a period of time. Some information of this sort is out there — for a price. However, much can be learned by supplementing a single satellite view with additional information, such as:
* comparisons with georeferenced published well layouts
* well appearance (weathering relative to surroundings)
* well status (in development, drilling, abandoned)
* is there evidence for the well in earlier (or later) low resolution images…”
Satellito’erthedesert
http://tinyurl.com/2ztx4m
Note in the link the satellite images show an increasing concentration of new wells are being built in the middle of Ghawar. The text says this is because the older wells on the periphery are dying - producing as much water as oil. To maintain production levels, wells have to be built into the middle. It’s part of the aging thing. We will never run out of oil. We will run out of cheap oil. But a shocking amount of products (the keys I’m tapping my fingers on now) are oil-based products. There may be substitutions (solar) for energy in the future, but substitions for oil-based products are very problematic to come up with. Also, it will take many years to replace the oil-based energy in the U.S. with non-oil. This will make oil much more expensive for a painful period. The Fed will print more money to make up for the recession that energy scarcity will cause. Hence I have no qualms of buying precious metals bullion and renting instead of buying a house.
“2008 Budget”
(TxChick — must see…)
http://caglecartoons.com/viewimage.asp?ID={37EA753A-78B7-4DA9-AA24-1905744533A5}
Trying again…
http://tinyurl.com/ynkeju
that’s funny but kind of sick too
Better in color (shiver)…
http://tinyurl.com/24an7t
Is this house priced to sell in the Houston market?
http://tinyurl.com/2omnzz
it was listed for 299 last May. Is there a place I can go to find the history of its sale price?
I would say yes. That OST area used to be pretty iffy when I lived in Houston but that was a long time ago. The house is $73/sq. foot. As for sales history, the description says it has been the family home for 40 years so that won’t help you. I kind of like it and think it’s fairly priced if the neighborhood is okay.
Gonna need a lot of work though.
$205k for 2800 foot and about .3 acre lot, that’s $73/foot. Ive seen cheaper houses in Houston but those prices beat Florida hands down(for now)
Yeah, but Sarasota is getting close. Recent sales in my old neighborhood are a little under $100/sq ft. We sold in 2005 at $180/sq ft.
Try domania.com. Just be sure to try the address a couple ways such as with city/state or just zip code. Sometimes the site cannot find the house, but then I change it up a bit and it appears.
Remarks: Seller is firm on price.
Well maybe yea, and maybe no…
with respect to the next bubble being precious metals:
during the .com bubble i knew many people that worked in the technology industry and during the real estate bubble there were many many people i knew in the real estate industry.
i do not know anyone working in the gold industry. my point being…isn’t huge job growth in said bubble sector a factor in identifying a bubble?
To have a bubble you need public speculation, and borrowed money. Outside of this forum who do you know that owns any gold? You also can’t buy gold on credit (paper gold is not gold, it is a trading vehicle).
I believe you are correct. The PM market is so small that there can be little public participation.
There’s also a question of availability, that looms large…
Stocks & Bonds are created out of thin air, and you can create more, if need be.
There is just so much physical precious metal out there, and the only way to create more is to go find it, somewhere in the bowels below us.
All the more reason for a price bubble to develop…
What I have read is the traditional buyers for gold is the jewelry industry. There is little to no growth in the consumption there. The ETF are the buyers of late, holding the gold for the inve$tors. No bubble here? HA!
We are running out of PMs in the same way Japan was running out of land circa 1990.
Running out I think not! But it is always a small market. The total amount of gold mined since Eve is estimated at 155500 tonnes. (5.5B oz) China, Russia and the Arab wealth can buy all of it with their reserves. A small market.
The total amount of gold mined since Eve is estimated at 155500 tonnes. (5.5B oz) China, Russia and the Arab wealth can buy all of it with their reserves.
At current prices, they could. But any attempt to do that would drive the price to the moon.
Except if they buy every time there is a downdraft. Could that be why selling, rather than causing more selling, has been hitting a brick wall recently?
Buy what China buys, sell what China sells. China is a buyer of the minor metals and a seller of the PMs. China is the largest gold miner in the world.
China is not a large seller on the world market; it consumes most of the gold it mines.
Most of China’s gold output stays in the country where it’s transformed into jewelry and manufactured items, though the country’s export role is increasing. Last year fabrication rose 18%, helped by demand from China’s increasingly wealthy middle- and upper class.
http://tinyurl.com/2ln26l
China’s gold reserves are 600 tonnes. This is out of a total foreign reserve of $1.4T.
They are selling to electronics and jewelry to their own citizens and exporting. They are not retaining for reserves. Sell what China sells.
Hoz,
Looks like China just bought themselves some shortages by trying to use command economy techniques in what is now becoming a capitalist economy:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080210/china_commanding_the_economy.html
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
2 of my close friends own physical gold. I own gold stocks.
I think a better indicator of a bubble is what people are talking about, what’s always on their minds. During the dot com bubble the dot coms stocks dominated conversations; the real estate bubble produced constant chatter about real estate.
I don’t know anyone, other than on this blog, talking up gold.
Gold is an industrial and/or scientific metal. A gold standard for our money? Gold is best used in computers, electronics, medicine, and other applications.
Roidy
Until 1838, all U.S. Gold Coins had more Gold in content, than the actual face value.
We were a young country, and the thought was that we should have an honest currency, (no Official U.S. Currency was printed until 1861) so that it would be accepted everywhere in the world @ par.
During the California Gold Rush, privately minted Gold Coins were struck by about a dozen mints, and when it was learned that a number of these, had less Gold than the stated face value, ($10 coin had like $9.04 in content) they were traded for less than the face value, and most were melted.
Currently it costs around 25 Cents to print a $100.00 Banknote.
The other $99.75 worth of value is entirely faith based, nothing more.
How strong is your faith?
None of my brain cells grok “faith.” My brain cells only respond to facts.
The other $99.75 is “value added.”
Duh.
In my opinion it is largely forgotten, even by the gold bugs, that gold is in fact a currency of its own at has been so for thousands of years.
Gold has no industrial use to speak of. Nearly all gold ever mined is still there and could easily enter the market, if the owner thinks so.
It is not really important wether the yearly gold production is up or down, 1000 tonnes or 2500 tonnes.
There are about 150.000 tonnes of gold in the world which could enter the market in short time, if the owners think it would be a good move. About 30.000 tonnes are owned by central banks (officialy, the real number is probably around half of it). So 120.000 tonnes are in private hands.
The only important thing about the gold price is, what these private hands think.
Of course gold could stop to be viewed as a currency. The central banks desparately tried that. But a currency is abandoned only if there is a longtime and viable alternative currency.
I do not see that in my lifetime.
“There are about 150.000 tonnes of gold in the world which could enter the market”
There are not 150 tonnes available. There are app 7.5 tonnes of gold that may be available. If the IMF sells that is another 3 tonnes.
Gold is a physical material but it is still a commodity. I think there is a significant portion of the weath of the wealthy that is/was using gold as a speculative investment and I strongly believe that there is a speculative premium on gold. Accepting gold as a currency is fine but I don’t believe that the current value of gold (as currency) is as high as the current book value. If you want to try to deny the speculation on gold, then please explain how the intraday swings can be as high as a few percent.
Irroicly, this is somewhat true, however overheard some older sheeple at work talking about gold prices and selling older jewlerly and what not they have laying around, these were far from fiscally savey poeple, so the rising price of gold is out in the public, but there is little they can or will do other then pawn old jewlery…
BTW, all you out of staters, take a look at the taxes on this 200K house - $6K per year. Outrageous.
Not outrageous by upstate NY standards. Take a look at the $6676 taxes on this $194,900 property, which is the going rate for taxes in this part of the state:
http://tinyurl.com/26usoh
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=182319
Sale price $349,900
Taxes: (page 2) $14,713
Also outrageous.
I pay $1300 on my $150K house (current market is $230K, but taking 2001 prices and adjusting for wage growth, it is a $150K house)
Now that’s outrageously resonable!
This weekend, we get more misleading advice from the SD Union Tribune sdhomes BUYING GUIDE. My comments are imbedded in italics.
When’s the right time to buy? Why waiting isn’t always best
By Brian Stewart
Broker and Owner, RE/MAX Hometown Realtors
It’s called a “buyer’s market.” It describes the real estate market here in San Diego, and in many places across the country. What it means simply is that there are more homes on the market than families looking to buy, more supply than demand. And while that has driven down prices in some areas, in others, homes are still selling almost as quickly as the “For Sale” sign goes up. How quickly have homes been selling lately in the area known as Southern California?
If you’re considering buying, but waiting to pounce until you think prices have bottomed out, wait no longer. Did you ever hear the old saying, “Buy low, sell high”? No one can predict when this market will turn around. But I am willing to bet that this time will not be different, and it will take at least five years like it did last time there was a major real estate bust in the early 1990s. Generally, weeks or even months or even, as in the normal case, four or more years can go by before anyone realizes that the low point has already passed, and the market is on the way back up.
…
The risk of catching a falling knife far outweighs the risk of buying a few months after the market has bottomed out.
This is priceless. Our future commander(s) in chief:
http://bp0.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/R6xXwcoFtsI/AAAAAAAADtE/0m5-_i3_Hww/s1600-h/bill_hillary_hippies.JPG
OMG — that is better than the Gubernator in Junior w/ a pregnant belly!
Why do you still think that Hillary is going to win? Have you not seen what Obama is doing? I caucused yesterday in Washington State and in my precinct there were 19 voters 18 for Obama and one for Hillary. The one person for Hillary left after a few minutes. There were no black people in our precinct and only 3 young people. Of the other 16 I would guess the average age was 40 something. Obama got 68% of the Washington and Nebraska vote.
Hillary will come under enormous pressure this week and I think she will quit the campaign by Friday.
I’ll take that bet. Hillary’s obsessive desire for power (why do you think she stayed with Bill?) will keep her fighting, and it’s gonna get dirty.
I’ll take it to. Bill and Hillary always pandered to minority voters - especially Blacks - but didn’t invite a single one to spend the night at the Lincoln Bedroom back when they were rewarding their political contributors. Once it dawns on Hillary that blacks are voting “en bloc” for Obamba, she won’t hesitate to throw them under the bus and pander to the White and Hispanic voters at their expense. It just might work for her, too.
Oh how I wish that opportunist would withdraw this week! She needs to get out of the way.
they have these things called super delegates since the mcgovern deal and the DNC decided adult supervision was required and……….
796 Insiders May Hold Democrats’ Key
“Right now, everyone is busting their chops to try to get the remaining superdelegates to commit. And they’re having a real hard time of it,” said Mike Berman, a Clinton supporter who worked on Walter F. Mondale’s 1984 campaign, the last one in which superdelegates were a factor.
So far, 213 superdelegates have publicly committed to backing Clinton and 139 have pledged their support to Obama, according to a survey by the Associated Press.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/09/AR2008020902703.html?hpid=topnews
In other words, the super delegates in the Dem party could decide who represents the party. Even though a majority have committed to Hillary at this point, there’s still a lot of politicing to be done.
IMO Hillary will never quit running until the last vote has been cast. She’s been targeting her run for the Presidency since she met Bill in college and she’s not about to give up.
Now you guys are going to see some the dirty tricks that Reps have been dealing with for many years. Remember that this is war and they (the Clinton team) play to win.
“Now you guys are going to see some the dirty tricks that Reps have been dealing with for many years. Remember that this is war and they (the Clinton team) play to win.”
besides the dirty tricks I wonder how Billary will tap into the China well. The entire Chinese nation should all bow three times as thanks for all largese, favors & gifts (Minaturized nuclear warhead technology ) bestowed by Slick Willy to China.
In a nasty political Barroom brawl don’t count out The Clintons.
superdelegates … mondale … because THAT went SO WELL for the Democratic Party…
Hillary will never quit, it’s not in hers and Billy Bob Blow Job’s genes. They’ll fight to the bitter end.
Can’t think of better entertainment this summer than a deadlocked Dem convention.
RE: Hillary will come under enormous pressure this week and I think she will quit the campaign by Friday.
Oh geez-call the Kleenex delivery truck!
Ha, Arkansas hippie “throw-backs”…can you find one of “shrub” the morning he fell off the couch in the oval office…after eating a pretzel… and got a black eye?
I like the one where he falls off the bike.
Too bad there’s no video of the Carter “giant swimming killer rabbit” incident.
lol
mislabeled “hippies”. not hippies at all. they look like grad students. except for the beard, they look like my parents (although my mother dropped out of undergrad…)
The Rochester, NY area is feeling a bit of the credit crunch, but still in denial in many aspects of the crunch. The article even has a little international flair:
Rules for mortgages squeezing buyers
http://tinyurl.com/29xnho
Still, the regional real estate market has been able to hold its own. The 8 percent drop in new home construction compares with a 24 percent plunge nationally, said Rick Herman, executive vice president of the Rochester Home Builders Association.
“We’re quite pleased with an 8 percent decline, considering what other parts of the country are experiencing,” Herman said.
Quite pleased with an 8% decline????
One of probably numerous contradictions in this article:
Schermerhorn said he’s advising his clients to save 5 percent of the purchase price before applying for a mortgage and to work on cleaning up their credit if it is marginal.
“I’ve been doing this 20 years and I’ve never seen anything like this,” he said of the credit crunch.
And then:
The last quarter of 2007 was particularly slow, brokers said, but sales picked up in January and could gather steam because of mortgage rates that are at four-year lows.
How will lower mortgage rates help buyers who can’t get loans?
As always, Rochester is behind the curve. I miss and hate Rochester all the same.
Thanks for posting that bizarroworld. I find the writing in the Rochester papers much stronger than the Syracuse Post Standard. I read your links and feel like I’ve got some real information.
PS tends to do fluff pieces on how Syracuse is unscathed and sometimes even imply the nation’s changing economy won’t impact us much. (Laid off New Venture Gear/auto industry employees might beg to differ with that.)
With SU economists available you’d think the reporters would have some good analysis for what the area is looking at in its future. Instead they trot out the realtor and mortgage broker types to cheeerlead.
CarrieAnn, the D&C does have its share of fluff and it quotes too many broker/realtor types, but there are times when it presents some fine journalism. You would think that between SU in your area, the Simon School of Business at the University of Rochester and the University of Buffalo that the upstate area would be awash with talented business minds that could transform the area. Unfortunately, most get their education and then leave for warmer climes with better job opportunities.
Is it true the banks can allow FB’s to refinance the principle or have a short sale to one’s self? Ive read a few ancedotals and this has me worried. If true, it will keep prices inflated.
I haven’t heard those things, but I know that there is mortgage fraud still going on with refinancing, hush-hush deals not being reported so that neighboring property values don’t tank, and kickbacks being given to appraisers for coming in at the right price so that loans continue to sail through.
I think that the governmental powers that be definitely favor the FB over the new homeowners. I love how the “free-market” capitalists have become closet commies now that so many speculators are losing money.
“San Diego single-family housing trends
…
The sale of new attached homes has outpaced the sale of new detached homes in recent years.”
My guesstimates (from eyeballing the graph):
Detached new home sales –
Peak rate (Summer 2000) = 9,200 / year
Current rate = 2,384 / year
Decline in sales from peak level = 74 pct
Attached new home sales –
Peak rate (Summer 2004) = 8,800 / year
Current rate = 3,967 / year
Decline in sales from peak level = 55 pct
Overall new home sales (detached + attached) –
Peak rate (Summer 2004) = 15,500 / year
Current rate = 6,351 / year
Decline in sales from peak level = 59 pct
I note that new detached home sales peaked coincidentally with the tech stock bust.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080210/news_1h10smal-jmp.html#trend
I feel bad to have to carve up this graph like a turkey, but the SD Union Tribune is generally devoid of analysis.
Does anyone have similar figures on new detached home construction in San Diego since 1997? I would love to see how shrinking new detached home purchases stack up against the massive amount of construction that has taken place since year 2000.
Another noteworthy detail: Though the detached home slump is much longer and deeper so far, looking on the dark side, the attached home slump is playing out far more rapidly. I see no evidence that a bottom is at hand in either side of the market.
Comment by txchick57
2008-02-10 06:38:06
I would say yes. That OST area used to be pretty iffy when I lived in Houston but that was a long time ago. The house is $73/sq. foot. As for sales history, the description says it has been the family home for 40 years so that won’t help you. I kind of like it and think it’s fairly priced if the neighborhood is okay.
Thanks txchick57 and all who chimed in. This is my dads house and he died in 2003. My sister is the executor of the estate and I think she is riding the market down. She was living in the house when my dad died and she stayed there while refusing to provide any information regarding the estate to certain members of the family. We hired a lawyer in May of 2006 to force her to provide an accounting to us. Thats when she put it on the market for 299 and moved out.
As someone else pointed out, yes, it does need a lot of work.
Why would someone continue to pay taxes on a vacant house in a declining real estate market?
Since my sister won’t talk to me can anyone suggest an attorney who can get another accounting for me?
PS– for those of you with money, the best way to destroy your family is to appoint the “wrong” person as your executor.
You betcha. MIL did just that. Wounds took a long time to heal.
Spook-
I feel for you, as my father just died a few weeks ago, and my sister is awaiting her dough when my mother dies (sooner than later), and the same stuff is happening in our family. I am transparent in my actions and information, while my sister lives in secrecy too. What a way to honor your parents.
See if a senior center has a legal clinic for a 1/2 hr consultation, as they are usually dirt cheap. Tell the story to them, and see if they can help you keep the legal cost down. I found one in So Ca for $10- a 1/2 hr.Your sister and mine are clones.
My whacky aunt has made my cousin’s angry ex wife the executor her huge estate.
My brother said he would do it for free and give the ex a few 100k for her trouble.
She has some affinity for a non family member and is leaving her Pasadena bungalow to her tenant.
Just writing this is getting me jealous.
Isn’t it sad, how death should be a lesson in love, and it seems to be a lesson of greed.
The other thing that I noticed is “If you didn’t send me flowers in life, please don’t send them at my death.” Lots of guilty people, who never said goodbye to my dying father, showed up at his funeral. I almost puked. They compared portfolios and business success at the funeral. It was awful.
My late boss said it well “Don’t spit on me in life, and then show up at my funeral.”
All of us in attendance, shared in his life.
My dad died a year ago. I still miss him a lot, I mean really a lot, we were really close. He made my oldest sister executrix, a huge mistake, he even admitted it but didn’t want to hurt her feelings by rescinding. Right before he died (I mean 2 days) my brother and I talked him into doing a living trust for his house, which basically removed her from any power, as that’s about all he had. It all worked out OK, but we still had problems with her over some minor things. When you’re already hurting because of the death, little things can have a big impact, especially words spoken carelessly.
How much does your school district pay its superintendent?
http://tinyurl.com/2493j6
That’s all on top of base salaries that average around $177,000 in Monroe County — more than $50,000 above the national average for school superintendents.
This year, Monroe County’s highest-paid superintendent of schools, Rochester’s Jean-Claude Brizard, will earn $215,000. Brizard is the 79th highest-paid superintendent in New York, according to a state database. The highest-paid superintendent, Carole G. Hankin in the Syosset Central School District, earns $328,683 — the cost of living is higher in Nassau County — plus $110,877 in benefits.
And most upstaters wonder why their taxes are so high.
Used to be (up to the ’70s at least) that govt jobs paid less than their private industry counterparts. Now they pay much more (except for public company CEOs).
What does a CEO of a company with 300 or so people make? You should be happy that you can get good people to work for so little!
School superintendents have a very different job than a CEO. For one thing, they do not need to deliver ever increasing profits to shareholders, nor find ways to expand business. Their job is to deliver the best possible education to students while on a fixed budget. Not easy, but a very different job.
“Their job is to deliver the best possible education to students…”
ROTFLMAO!
That is their job. That most fail miserably at the task I agree.
Don’t they basically just decide when to have snow days (& usually misjudge anyway, like the day they sent us to school and then decided the roads were too icy, so they sent us back … on the icy roads … thanks) and go around campaigning for their 10% annual pay increases?
“Redlining” redefinition: Requiring down payments in falling-price local real estate markets…
NATION’S HOUSING
KENNETH HARNEY
Loan restrictions based on location
February 10, 2008
WASHINGTON – Critics call it the new redlining: Many of the country’s largest mortgage lenders are imposing loan restrictions in entire counties or ZIP codes that they rank as risky or “declining.”
…
Critics charge that imposing higher down-payment standards or other penalties for applicants in an entire county, metropolitan area or ZIP code is unfair to homeowners and buyers whose properties are located in submarkets or neighborhoods within those jurisdictions that may not be declining in value, or not by enough to justify punitive underwriting requirements.
Ted Grose, president of Los Angeles-based 1st Mortgage Advisors Inc., said labeling entire counties as “declining” is “ridiculous – it totally fails to distinguish between areas where prices are rising or relatively stable, and other neighborhoods or communities where they are not.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080210/news_1h10harney.html
It would cost them too much to try and label every single neighborhood so doing the zip code is the safest least expensive and quickest way to do so.
Sorry Ted… if you don’t like it then MOVE!
“…try and label every single neighborhood…”
According to some of the commentors in the article, this would also qualify as redlining. According to them, lenders are supposed to measure lending risk on a case-by-case basis, without bothering to notice areas where all houses have dropped in value by over 10 pct from the bubble peak.
Unfair? It is about making or losing money. That is NEVER about fair!
McEconomists declare Massachusetts recession-proof.
http://tinyurl.com/yron5r
I work with all types of builders and contractors along the eastern seaboard as well as into the middle of the country. I have been doing this for the past 23 years. The contractors are in denial. They are mostly crying the blues. Even the service providers are slow. They are the J6P and can not figure out what is happening. Most of them don’t read the papers, go on the internet, and listen to the news. They live in the dark and are clueless. It is good to have a dumb customer who is used to big numbers. Btw most of them also dislike realtors.
Testify! I have been encountering this for the past 2 years here. The big truck boys would laugh if I asked them if they were concerned with rising foreclosures, etc. They aren’t laughing now. In fact, many of them are trying to sell their 5000 sq ft custom homes and super duper diesel trucks.
The jacka$$ that set those women on fire couldn’t afford his house.
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/02/10/Hillsborough/How_debt_led_one_man_.shtml
This is really a disturbing story ,but this guy was a thief and a criminal before he ever bought the house .I think his arrests and his insurance increase , prior to the murders, had more to do with this man losing it than the house thing .
Slightly OT from this, but one thing that constantly pisses me off is nobody is prosecuting mortgage fraudsters. Even folks who “simply” lied on their mortgage application and got cash back may be guilty of “grand larceny” and can be charged with a felony.
Why can’t a clever DA find a few people who did this three times, and get them “life sentences” under CA’s “three strikes law”. Then, after highly publicizing these cases, make deals with the 100,000 or so other crooks that did this, and make them pay taxes/fines to the state for the rest of their lives?
renven…..I’m also pissed off that mortgage fraudsters aren’t being prosecuted ,(yet).
There is something happening here, and what it is isn’t exactly clear . Your getting all this crazy bail out talk and damaging lowering of Feds rates ,yet no talk about the how these RE prices got inflated this high ,in part due to crime . I had a right to know that I was in competition with criminals,unqualified buyers, and cash back fraudsters when I was looking for a house . Look at how these loan crimes created a fake supply and demand on a National level.
And everyone who overpaid for a house with CONVENTIONAL financing (i.e., anyone who got a fixed-rate mortgage) *AND* (an even more deserving group) anyone whose property tax went up based on a valuation from someone who, it turned out later, couldn’t really afforded that price, DESERVES reparations from the guilty parties. Yet nobody gives a shit about these people.
Interesting tidbit for SF Chron article on recession and public: Ramit Sethi recently surveyed his readers to get the answer. Here’s what he found:*
– 41 percent of women said they were worried about a recession compared with 26 percent of men.
– 57 percent of people over 45 were worried versus 24 percent under 30.
– Among worriers, 85 percent said they’ve been eating out less, 75 percent have cut back on recreational activities and 36 percent are driving less.
“Those downturns, among the worst in the state’s postwar history, each involved a crash in the state’s vital technology sector. In the early 1990s, the minicomputer industry collapsed, compounding a real estate bust driven by speculative building. And the dot-com crash led the 2001 recession.
“We don’t have those factors this time around,” said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a University of Massachusetts at Boston professor who studies the state’s economy. ”
So only a few affected sectors pushed the state economy into recession in previous years.
Now, despite still having jobs and income, consumers across a broad range of sectors find themselves needing to cut spending. That should soon lead to layoffs in consumer sectors of the economy first and others as the downturn deepens. To me, that would make this recession deeper.
Why is this so hard?
Someone asked “do you feel eeire”? For the past few nights I have had nightmares about going broke. This is a real possibility in Florida. Uhuh, I think I feel eerie.
I am always dreaming that I need to gather up my stuff and animals and go live in boarding style villiages.
Two nights ago I dreamt I rented a house but this guy lived in a closet in my garage.
His lowlife friends were hanging out and getting in my face.
It was spookedy.
For Stucco and all other rock ribbed Amerikans
https://www.intrade.com/
Look at those charts. BO has broken out of a cup and handle (very bullish) and the witch has broken the uptrend line. She may be toast.
That is amusing. I will pick McCain to win, 1:3 seems cheap in a 2 party contest.
Why Democrats must choose Obama
By Clive Crook
Published: February 10 2008 18:10 | Last updated: February 10 2008 18:10
The manager or the visionary. Hillary Clinton’s own supporters – the candidate herself, in speech after speech – have cast the fight this way. Stirred emotions and soaring rhetoric are all very well, goes the line. If that is what you want, vote for Barack Obama. But if you care about getting something done, choose experience, technical expertise and a safe pair of hands.
Do not be blinded by passion and excitement. Do not gamble on a dream that way. Rise to the challenge of being dull. “I am Hillary Clinton, and I endorsed this message.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4c003b86-d7ff-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F4c003b86-d7ff-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Knock Knock:
Q: Who’s there?
Bank
Q: Bank who?
Bankruptcy
OK, maybe just a little OT, but this is the bits bucket.
Any fashion historians here? You know, like don’t skirts get longer when a recession approaches or something? The thing I am wondering about is pinstripe suits. Has anyone else noticed the sudden rash of pinstripe suits on all the t.v. commentators? Normally I wouldn’t notice if someone wore the same thing for weeks, but even to my fashion-challenged eyes, the pinstripes just don’t flatter most of them.
Pinstriped suits? And here I thought it was my aging eyes playing tricks on me or my picture tube was wigging out.
You mean Kudlow isn’t the only one anymore?
Harken back to the 1920’s eh?
Can anyone respond to this:
From a math standpoint, I see an alternative seres of + and - between greed and fear and this series is congruent.
Any responses?
You mean convergent?
I think your question is, what is going to happen to volatility? Will the oscillations dampen or will they increase? I think we’re all (day traders excepted) hoping for the former.
BEN STIEN has an editorial piece in today’s Business section of the NY Times about the sub-prime mess.
Subscription-free link here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/business/10every.html?ex=1203310800&en=2fd2442108334fc3&ei=5070&emc=eta1
He has only marginally more credibility after his cheerleading last year than Lereah or Yun.
TxChick or others,
I would like to start reading about investments and economics. Do you have any book recommendations?
I know the very basics..econ 101 and a couple business classes, but I want to become have a more advanced knowledge of how the financial systems work, so I can get a decent return on my cash.
Thanks in advance for any input.
confessions of a stock operator
My adventures with your money
Thanks…I think you mean Reminiscences right? It looks interesting.
You should read at least one book by Benjamin Graham. I would start with “The Intelligent Investor”. It’s not all you need to know, but it’s vital that you know this stuff.
If you haven’t read on micro-economics, you can get a used copy of Gregory Mankiw’s “Principles of Microeconomics” on Amazon for about 30 bucks.
For a lighter read but with important insights, grab a copy of “The Essays of Warren Buffet”. Or read the Berkshire annual reports for free off their web site.
After reading these, you will be better equipped to read the more recent authors such as Jeremy Siegel, Burton Malkiel, and even Peter Lynch and (for entertainment) Jim Cramer.
“The Crowd”
Traders, Guns and Money
Satjayit Das
“…PB: What’s the book about?
A form of madness - we call it financial markets. The book’s about the weird and wonderful instruments that are traded and sold by people in banks to people in companies and investment houses. Its focus is on this arcane world. …”
Thanks, Hoz. That’s one I’ve been meaning to read but kept forgetting the title. It’s on order now.
I highly recommend books on or by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, such as The Essays of Warren Buffett. Also the Money Masters books by John Train. Those will point you to other good resources.
What was BB’s estimate from last summer — $100 bn, $200 bn? I forgot…
Subprime losses could rise to $400bn
By David Pilling and Jonathan Soble in Tokyo and Gillian Tett in London
Published: February 10 2008 19:35 | Last updated: February 10 2008 19:35
Senior global policymakers have raised projections for the size of subprime-related credit losses in a move that implies financial institutions will have to increase write-offs.
Speaking after the meeting of Group of Seven finance leaders, Peer Steinbrück, German finance minister, said the G7 now feared that write-offs of losses on securities linked to US subprime mortgages could reach $400bn.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8727f20c-d80a-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8727f20c-d80a-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Peter Bernstein on subprime (He has never before seen anything like it … says the roots go back to 1982… talks about the effect of a perceived absence of risk on the nature of the system… a lot of things happened that would not have happened in a different kind of environment … says there were not enough bears around… maybe something similar occurred in the 1920s or late 1960s, but nothing as pervasive as this has ever happened before…paraphrases Rummy — “Unknown unknowns” etc — can’t manage risks you don’t know…)
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=646615777&fromSearch=n
Peter Bernstein: “Credit rests on trust, and trust isn’t there.”
http://tinyurl.com/2b26mx
Bush sees ‘troubling’ signs but not a recession
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:21 a.m. EST Feb. 10, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — President Bush says he sees “troubling” signs in the U.S. economy but won’t say there’s a recession underway.
“I think the experts would tell you we’re not in a recession,” Bush said in an interview on Fox News Sunday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/president-bush-sees-troubling-signs/story.aspx?guid=%7BDA72D94F%2DCEAA%2D4366%2DB809%2D494AE498A6FB%7D
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Data to keep stocks on edge with recession looming
Retail sales likely to highlight consumer woes; commodities resume surge
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Feb. 9, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors will closely monitor data next week, given concerns that a recession might already be at hand, while a renewed surge in commodities prices is raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to continue cutting interest rates to boost the economy.
“Anything that points to an economy that is [decelerating] is going to get a reaction,” said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank.
Of particular interest for investors will be January retail-sales data, to be released on Wednesday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-keep-focus-economy/story.aspx?guid=%7BCF2F1DE6%2D7F20%2D46D2%2D9BBE%2D1FEF5AAD5CA8%7D
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8727f20c-d80a-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Financial Times: Subprime losses could rise to $400 Billion.
Sammy — Do you (or anyone else) recall what BB said the losses would be last summer?
Of course, the rising estimate calls into question where this rising tally will end up, especially (surprise!) when it is discovered that Alt-A and prime mortages need to be added to the damage tally…
Drunk Threatens AU City With TV Remote
This is classic:
“One push of the button will blow up half of Brisbane,” Fryatt shouted in the standoff last May before police in the Queensland state capital opened fire with rubber bullets.
Fryatt’s lawyer told the Brisbane District Court that his client lost control after losing much of his life savings in a fraud carried out by his finance broker, local media said.
We’ve already had a few FB’s go postal–just wait ’til May. ~_^
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Wheat futures in Chicago rose by the daily limit for a sixth day, breaching $11 a bushel for the first time as the U.S. forecast its lowest inventories in 60 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGTgB.KmwjuM&refer=home
Time to board up the windows and head for high ground, as the financial market’s equivalent of a Cat-5 hurricane bears down on the coast.
Hedge funds
Hedge funds put up shutters to weather storm
By Henny Sender and Aline van Duyn in New York
Published: February 10 2008 22:05 | Last updated: February 10 2008 22:05
Hedge funds are beginning to close their doors or lay off teams of traders in response to the unprecedented gridlock in the debt markets which has led to losses and significantly reduced the amount of money banks are willing to lend their hedge fund clients.
In January, the overall performance for all hedge funds was a negative 1.8 per cent, according to Hedge Fund Research, while the merger arbitrage index was down a mere 0.34 per cent. This does not capture the wide range of results, according to managers of funds of funds, who say many firms lost as much as 8 per cent in January.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0a7df2f4-d807-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F0a7df2f4-d807-11dc-98f7-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Trimming the hedges in 2008
Funds suffering unusual losses
Andrew Leckey Successful Investing
Even a “go anywhere” investment can go down.
Many of those freewheeling investment partnerships known as hedge funds, which logged an average gain of 10 percent last year, have suffered losses of 5 percent or more in early 2008.
There are more than 10,000 hedge funds, with assets totaling nearly $2 trillion. A large number weren’t in existence in 2000, the last time financial markets were badly shaken. So we’re breaking new ground, making it difficult to predict how they’ll perform in the coming year.
http://www.telegram.com/article/20080210/COLUMN25/802100349/1002/BUSINESS
ASIA MARKETS
Sydney, Hong Kong stocks drive Asia lower
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:45 p.m. EST Feb. 10, 2008
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Asian markets declined Monday, with Australian stocks dropping on financials such as National Australia Bank after the central bank warned of higher inflation, raising fears of further interest rate increases. South Korean, Hong Kong and Singaporean shares extended losses on worries about the U.S. economy as trading resumed after the Lunar New Year holidays.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sydney-hong-kong-stocks-drive/story.aspx?guid=%7B5B78B09B%2D56CA%2D4E16%2D8433%2DBAF30A363260%7D
Bond Insurance Turns Toxic for Cities, Colleges as Rates Soar
By Martin Z. Braun
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Bond insurance sold by MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc. and Security Capital Assurance Ltd. is backfiring on counties, universities and hospitals across the U.S., more than doubling some borrowing costs.
Park Nicollet Health Services in Minneapolis may pay an extra $5 million to $6 million this year, about a quarter of its operating profit, because interest on $375 million in floating- rate debt doubled in the last six weeks, said Chief Financial Officer David Cooke. The rate on $98 million insured by Ambac climbed to 6 percent on Jan. 30 from 3.06 percent on Jan. 2.
“We’ll have to reduce our capital expenditure program, which means less equipment, less modernization of facilities,” Cooke said in an interview. The hospital paid Ambac to “count on that AAA insurance for 30 years. Now it’s going away on us.”
Investors are shunning insured bonds after three of the biggest guarantors, owned by Ambac, Security Capital and FGIC Corp., were stripped of at least one AAA credit rating amid losses on debt tied to subprime mortgages. Interest costs on floating-rate bonds sold by more than 100 governments, hospitals and colleges rose as much as 7 percentage points since the beginning of January even as the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate for U.S. borrowing by 1.25 percentage points.
`State of Turmoil’
…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acDDWaycQaeg&refer=home
Hillary blast over ‘pimped out’ jibe
Posted by Philip Sherwell on 09 Feb 2008 at 23:25
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Democrats, US Elections, Chelsea Clinton
Full coverage of the US Elections 2008
Hillary Clinton the angry Mom has now personally blasted MSNBC over correspondent David Shuster’s observation that her daughter Chelsea was “sort of being pimped out” by her mother’s campaign.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/trailmix/feb08/hillaryblastoverjibe.htm