A Different Twist In California
The County Sun reports from California. “Real estate agent Richard Kegley negotiates home sales all over San Bernardino County, but lately he’s in the business of persuasion. Not persuading would-be homeowners to buy, but convincing sellers their homes are severely overpriced. ‘(Sellers) ask me what it would take to sell in 30 days, and when I tell them, they say, ‘Come on, be realistic,’ Kegley said. ‘They keep reducing the price, but they’re always too late.’”
“A real estate veteran of more than 20 years, he said the current housing meltdown ‘has a different twist to it’ than prior slumps. ‘Last time we had some equity on properties,’ he said. ‘This time there’s just no equity. The prices are much lower than what’s owed on the properties.’”
“Six months ago, Josee Maclaughlin, a real estate agent in Upland, stayed busy advising sellers to spruce up their homes. Lately, though, she mostly deals with ’short sales,’ where…the bank takes the loss.”
“‘They’re trying to get all the bells and whistles on the home to get the most value out of their house … but it’s only helping a little bit,’ Maclaughlin said. ‘If there’s a house going for $100,000 less than the one with green grass, it’s not going to make much of a difference.’”
The Press Enterprise. “San Bernardino County sales fell the steepest in the region, plunging 53 percent from January 2007, for a total of 1,111 transactions, which DataQuick said was the smallest monthly count since the company began keeping track in 1988.”
“The median home price in San Bernardino County slipped below $300,000 to $298,000, representing more than a 21 percent drop from an all-time peak of $380,000 reached in November 2006.”
“Steve Johnson, a director of MetroStudy, said although home builders have cut their prices by about 25 percent to induce buying, there still are 5,400 finished and vacant houses in western Riverside and San Bernardino counties, twice the unsold inventory available two years ago.”
“Also, at the end of January, there were 36,198 resale homes listed by the Multi-Regional MLS, which serves the San Gabriel Valley and Inland Empire. Spokesman Eric Turner said at the current rate of sales, it would take a record 20 months to sell those homes if no more properties came on the market.”
The LA Daily News. “State officials launched a comprehensive educational program on Thursday designed to help slow the growing number of foreclosures. The ‘90 Days of Hope’ program details steps that homeowners can take to avoid losing their homes if payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages become unmanageable.”
“‘We want them to check their paperwork. Some of them don’t even know what kind of agreement they got into. They don’t even know that their rates will be resetting,’ said Rosario Marin, secretary of the State and Consumer Services Agency.”
“In last year’s fourth quarter, a record 4,536 homeowners in Los Angeles County lost their homes to foreclosure, and the outlook remains grim, according to DataQuick. ‘There is a good chance we will pass that record in the first quarter of 2008,’ DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.”
The Fresno Bee. “Sales of new and used houses in Fresno County fell 36.2% in January compared with the same period a year earlier, and the median price fell 13.8% to $250,000, according to DataQuick.”
“Cliff Lloyd of London Properties predicts more houses will be sold this year, but said an abundance of bank-owned houses will push values down more than they should be because panicky lenders are slashing prices too much.”
“‘It’s not fair for our market,’ he said. ‘I’m seeing situations where something is on the market for three weeks and instead of going from $230,000 to $225,000 they are going to $199,000. Of course that will create multiple offers and a quick sale.’”
“In Fresno County, nearly 74% of the families who bought their houses in 2006 and 55% who purchased them in 2007 owe more on the house than it is worth, according to RealtyTrac.”
The Modesto Bee. “Rents are flat, sales are scarce and values are way down for apartment complexes and rental properties throughout the Northern San Joaquin Valley, landlords were told at a Modesto luncheon.”
“John Citrigno, who specializes in multi-family housing sales, said ‘historically unprecedented’ competition from single-family rental homes is holding down apartment rents. Citrigno said typical three-bedroom home rents in Stanislaus County two years ago were $1,200 to $1,500 per month. Now they’re $900 to $1,200 per month.”
“Gary Kirkpatrick, an investment property specialist in Modesto said small complexes report having more vacancies, fewer qualified applicants and falling property values. ‘Those who bought in 2005 and 2006 are all upside-down (with expenses exceeding revenues), and they can’t sell their properties for what they paid for them,’ Kirkpatrick said.”
“Kirkpatrick offered this example to demonstrate the market shift: A duplex on Gemini Court in Modesto resold four times in three years. It sold for $159,000 in 2002, $218,000 in 2003, $316,000 in 2004 and $400,000 in 2005. He estimated the current owner, however, is losing about $11,274 a year.”
“Citrigno said some Merced apartments can be purchased for $45,000 per unit. He said that’s a bargain because building com- parable units would cost more than twice as much.”
The Recordnet. “San Joaquin County real estate brokers say the sales predominantly are foreclosure homes, with most of those selling at less than $250,000. As expected, sales prices continued to slide, falling to a median of $283,000 last month, a 33.4 percent drop from a peak during the housing boom of $425,000 in July 2006.”
“Frank Orello, sales manager for Coldwell Banker Grupe in Stockton, said foreclosure homes are attracting so much attention from buyers that it’s getting competitive. ‘There are multiple bottom-feeders out there, and they are raising the bar,’ he said. ‘It’s a little surreal. We’re getting the same kind of action we got in 2004, but the prices are a little wholesale.’”
“Ben Balsbaugh, residential sales manager for PMZ Real Estate in Stockton, said most of the houses selling are foreclosure properties - about 77 percent of January’s sales. Most home are selling below the $250,000 mark, he said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “The regional 2008 real estate season opened in the winter cold and stayed there: January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them. A near-tie between foreclosures and home sales represented the grimmest indicator yet for a housing market now 30 months past the peak of a five-year boom in which loans came easy and home prices doubled.”
“Bank discounts and low interest rates are sparking multiple bids now for houses priced from the $100,000s to the $800,000s, said Kevin Coates, president of Sacramento-based Avalar Real Estate and Mortgage Group.”
“‘The reality is that $700,000 house was a million or a million-one when this started,’ said Coates.”
“As foreclosures continue to grow in the capital-area real estate market, Sacramento and Elk Grove are copying a trend launched last year in Stockton: bus tours of bank-owned homes.”
“‘This office lists a lot of foreclosure properties, and we want to get them sold,’ said Keller Williams partner Lori Mode. ‘I’ve lived in Elk Grove for over 30 years and I hate to see it like this.’ Nonetheless, the sooner they’re sold, the faster it’s back to normal.”
The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County home prices have fallen 19 consecutive months. Hitting $500,000 in January, the county’s median home price has dropped 19.2 percent since the market peaked in summer 2005 and is down 8.3 percent from a year ago, according to The Press Democrat’s monthly real estate report prepared by Coldwell Banker.”
“A record number of Sonoma County residents lost their homes to foreclosure in 2007. Even more are in danger with default notices also at record levels. In response, lenders have been tightening once-lax loan standards that helped juice the housing market.”
“Purchasing the typical $500,000 house in Sonoma County with a jumbo loan today likely would cost a buyer about $400 more in monthly mortgage payments compared with a conforming loan, said Maia Lomax, co-owner of a Santa Rosa mortgage brokerage.”
“To get the lower loan rate the buyer must make an $83,000 down payment, compared with the more typical $50,000 down payment in a jumbo loan, she said. ‘If you have the money and you can do it, this is definitely the time to buy. But you’ve got to have the money to get a good loan,’ Lomax said.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Robert Bailey, a regional VP for the National Association of Realtors, knows a Santa Cruz couple who refinanced their way to foreclosure. The couple bought a house in 2004 for $486,000, refinanced in 2005 for $535,000, refinanced in 2006 twice — for $600,000 and then $700,000.”
“Now the bank owns their home — because they couldn’t refinance again. The time of double-digit home appreciation is over.”
“Yes, there were ‘gross abuses’ and ‘actual fraud’ but those aren’t the only reasons the housing bubble burst, Bailey said. ‘A lot of this issue was created by us,’ said Bailey. ‘We’ve turned our homes into investments where we live. The ATM mentality has to go.’”
The San Mateo County Times. “Foreclosure auction sales more than tripled in San Mateo County in January compared with the same period last year, a new real estate report revealed. In San Mateo County, many of the foreclosures are in low-end markets such as Daly City, South San Francisco, East Palo Alto, East Menlo Park and San Bruno, said Don McFarland, an independent real estate broker in Burlingame.”
“There also are pockets of San Mateo and Redwood City where low-end homes are sold and foreclosures are occurring, he said. ‘It’s the low-end buyers who were in trouble,’ said McFarland. ‘They don’t have any money.’”
The Mercury News. “For the first time since the housing downturn began in late 2005, housing prices in Santa Clara County dropped last month compared with a year earlier. And fewer homes sold in January than during any month in 20 years.”
“As of Thursday, 5,935 houses and condos were for sale in Santa Clara County, he said. It would take 8 1/2 months to sell all of those properties at the recent glacial pace of sales.”
“Alyson Abramowitz’s recent experience shopping for her first house illustrates how tough it’s been to get a jumbo mortgage.”
“‘Basically every mortgage company says I’m their dream client,’ said Abramowitz,, who saved for years to amass a 20 percent down payment for a home in the $1 million range. But right after she agreed to buy the five-bedroom house late last month…lenders began saying her down payment wasn’t high enough.”
“‘Suddenly everyone was going, ‘45 percent down,’ she said.”
The Alameda Times Star. “Developers and construction workers who say they have been hard-hit by the housing crisis have formed an alliance to oppose Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums’ proposed housing policy.”
“Kathy Kuhner, owner of Dogtown Development, said Wednesday that small builders have had to put their projects on hold, because the economy and the foreclosure crisis means no one is selling, no one is buying and financing for new home construction has all but dried up.”
“In an odd twist of fate, Kuhner said she is negotiating to sell the 34th and Hollis property to an affordable-housing developer, for ‘pennies on the dollar.’ ‘Affordable housing is the only game in town,’ she said. ‘It’s the only thing that’s being built.’”
“Nicholas Dean, a surveyor, said most of his work involves condominium construction, and even that has been hit hard. ‘Nobody’s selling, nobody’s buying,’ he said.”
The Bay Area Newsgroup. “Bay Area home sales fell in January for the 36th month in a row and four Bay Area counties saw median prices drop below $500,000 something not seen since 2005, DataQuick reported.”
“‘There was very little selling in those counties and significant chunks of it were foreclosure activity,’ said analyst Andrew LePage. ‘In Contra Costa, 33.1 percent of homes sold in January had been foreclosed on in 2007. In Solano County it was 43.2 and Alameda it was 24.9 percent.’”
“Foreclosed sales counted for 19 percent for the entire Bay Area.”
“‘I think prices are still too high, by at least 10 to 15 percent,’ said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. ‘Too high means that they are unaffordable to people based on their current income. We were in a stage where housing problems got way out of line because lenders were not requiring income or assets.’”
“Lower interest rates for qualifying households between $400,000 and $700,000 would help but wouldn’t be enough to offset the change in lending practices, he said.”
“‘Some people can buy a bit larger house, but I doubt it will have much effect until the price correction and houses become affordable,’ Levy said. ‘It doesn’t make a difference if the house is still $200,000 more than you can afford.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “A total of 2,312 resale homes sold in the nine-county Bay Area in January, down 43.7 percent from a year ago and 24.2 percent from December, according to DataQuick. It’s the lowest regional sales total in the two decades the firm has tracked the area.”
“‘We’re going through the painful transition toward pricing that is realistic and we’re nowhere near that (yet),’ said economist Christopher Thornberg. ‘Even though your local real estate agent will tell you, it’s OK in this neighborhood or it’s a wonderful time to buy because interest rates are low, all that’s wrong. If you’re buying into this market, you’re overpaying.’”
“Annie Brown, a Realtor in Walnut Creek, said foreclosed homes in Brentwood that were $700,000 a couple of years ago are now selling for $450,000 to $475,000. ‘The bank-owned homes are really being priced to sell,’ she said.”
“Genevieve and Matt Garfunkle bought and moved into a $1.7 million, four-bedroom Colonial home in the Rockridge neighborhood of Oakland a little before Thanksgiving.”
“The problem is they haven’t sold their three-bedroom Mediterranean on which they’re still paying a monthly mortgage. It’s been on the market since November and they lowered the price from $834,000 to $799,000 after New Year’s. They’ve handed out many information packets at their open houses but still haven’t received anything above what they consider lowball offers.”
“‘All my open houses are very well attended,’ Genevieve Garfunkle said, ‘but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet.’”
‘Citrigno said some Merced apartments can be purchased for $45,000 per unit. He said that’s a bargain because building comparable units would cost more than twice as much.’
I can remember UHS lecturing me that it was absolutely impossible for housing to sell for less than construction costs. But I knew from experience that it can go way below that.
BTW, this months data from SF and the Chronicles reporting that the median is up reminds me of when I first realized how flawed the median statistic is. It was in late 2005 I think, when the annual foreclosure rate in Denver had topped 30,000. The press quietly reported the median was still going up, but minimized it and nobody in the REIC mentioned it.
After all, how could anybody seriously claim prices were headed up in the face of the rest of the statistics? It’s the same in SF, IMO. The median is a lagging, flawed statistic, and folks there will find out soon enough.
Yep. A whole new generation is currently going to school……for most the Joshua tree way.
I think the phrase is: “You just earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Screw U.”
“that it was absolutely impossible for housing to sell for less than construction costs.”
I had a Realtor friend argue exactly that two years ago. I tried to explain how labor and materials prices can actually go DOWN during a housing slump/crash, but she would hear none of it.
ANYTHING can be sold at a loss.
There are almost never missing markets, but there are often would-be sellers who are unwilling to reduce their reservation price sufficiently to reflect current market reality.
How else would others make a gain.
Never gamble MORE than you can afford to LOSE.
RE, Scams and other CRAP shoots 101
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
here is the latest data quick LA zip chart for Jan, showing all the 270 zip sales data/Medians/YOY % adjustments. 28 hi-end LA zips showed 251 total sales at still astronomical prices. That is about 10% of total SHF sales for LA county(2382). My conclusion is that the really super hi-end areas are still holding or registering YOY % gains though the samples are too few in many cases. Of course the bottom-middle areas are going down the crapper and this time the hi-end will not hold up average LA medians. Not when U have 100 or so marginal or ghettoized LA zips showing 15-35% price drops in about 6 months.
What U see in LA is a wide divergence between a few super wealthy and a vast pool of proletariat wage earner/ immigrants at the bottom rung. LA is actually more like a typical third world metro region than U realize, with increasing concentrations of wealth and a vast middle -lower class getting poorer and poorer due to inflation, wage stagnation, ect. Actually the middle class is vanishing in LA along with good paying middle-working class occupations and job sectors.
“LA is actually more like a typical third world metro region” Yes thats my impression as well.
That is what garage sales are.. sales of stuff at a loss..just get it outa here.
A client, who is a small builder told me today that it cost $200,000 more to build a house than buy an existing one in Riverside County. These would be custom homes. The permits cost $100,000, for which the prices just increased in January. Large builders are going out of business and they have no work at all.
“Cliff Lloyd of London Properties predicts sales will increase this year, but said an abundance of bank-owned properties will push values down more than they should be because panicky lenders lenders slashing prices too much.”
Everything I want to say has been said many times before on this blog. All I have the energy to say now is, we will know prices have been “slashed too much” when we see inventories falling, sales volume rising, and all of us HBBers in houses we own.
Those houses in Michigan have been slashed to a dollar.
Is this slashed too much?
Nope, those homes are still vastly overpriced.
They’re only a dollar because a legal contract requires some consideration in exchange.
“Cliff Lloyd of London Properties predicts more houses will be sold this year, but said an abundance of bank-owned houses will push values down more than they should be because panicky lenders are slashing prices too much.”
“‘It’s not fair for our market,’ he said. ‘I’m seeing situations where something is on the market for three weeks and instead of going from $230,000 to $225,000 they are going to $199,000. Of course that will create multiple offers and a quick sale.’”
Memo to Lloyd of London: If the offered price were really below the market price, it would be bid back up to the market price. If it isn’t, that’s the new market price. It the buyer really needs to make a sale, there’s nothing wrong with the seller setting the price low enough to ensure there are buyers. Happens with other things, why not housing?
Memo is so true… talk about having rose colored blinders securely fastened. Another memo to Lloyd: If you think the market will “correct” itself back up to what you think the properties should sell at once the “panicky” lenders are done cutting their losses, feel free to buy them up and wait for the market to turn around. I’m sure both the banks and underwater homeowners would be appreciative of you putting your money where your unfounded optimism is.
“‘It’s not fair for our market”
Yeah, fairness is job one for used house sellers. Do these nimrods understand they work in a market-based economy?
Not to mention that they didn’t get a crap about what was fair to buyers on the way up.
get=give, duh
“but still haven’t received anything above what they consider lowball offers…All my open houses are very well attended, but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet”
Is it not considered polite to consider “lowball offers” as “serious”, or “pulling the trigger”? Or is a “lowball offer” a sign that a buyer isn’t serious or “able to commit”?
Look, people, some of us have actual down payments, and WE AIN’T JUST GOING TO GIVE IT AWAY.
A phrase they will remember forever:
‘Chasing the market down’
I wonder how long till those ‘lowball’ offers turn out to be the best offers they had for the house.
When she was a realtor, my wife would suggest to sellers that the first offer was usually the best offer. In this declining market, the first offer is ALWAYS the best offer!
In this market, with inventory as high as it is, getting any offer is difficult even with aggressive pricing.
At least you have some agents that are trying to break this to sellers before taking a listing. If it’s priced too high, it won’t sell and there will be no commission.
You gotta love that even dipshit realtors are now admitting many areas are going to fall at least another 10 - 15%. And anything they say, I’m gonna at least double.
would you agree that is the case on a special property - views of LI sound in a desirable CT town that I don’t even own it yet (probate)? 3 people have contacted me with offers while still in probate, Do you think I could do better opening it up to the whole market? See, I do even though the first offer was before I even put it on the market. 1st=best? maybe not always
Hmmm, not sure where you are but there are some very, very nice areas around there. In fact, contrary to this board, some of those places I’m thinking of will never deviate or go down much on prices.
Do your calcs first. Then I’d talk seriously to the 3, very seriously before going further. You never know.
I love certain areas there, others do also, one of the 3 just might pay off.
More than that, if you could afford the maintenance, taxes, etc and you live in the area, KEEP it and live in it. I would, definitely I would.
Obviously, one of my favorite places in the world.
stony creek - thimbles
taking offers here!!!
“First offer is the best offer”
Realtwhore BS to ensure a quick sale and fast turn on advertising $$$ invested. Read Freakanomics.
But - even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
I like the folks that brag that they turned down those lowball offers, aren’t going to give it away and know it’s worth more. I wonder what they think as they pack up after the bank forecloses?
I think these people will go to their graves believing that their house was “worth more”. They’d rather have the bank take the house than have proof that they really weren’t millionaires (or 500K -aires depending on their housing market).
“Look, people, some of us have actual down payments, and WE AIN’T JUST GOING TO GIVE IT AWAY.”
That was just too funny!
“Look, people, some of us have actual down payments, and WE AIN’T JUST GOING TO GIVE IT AWAY.”
this is the truth- i have busted my butt for years to save my money and i will be damned to lose it in a heartbeat on a knife catch. not going to happen
ditto
I believe this is young Mr. Garfunkle. You’d think a private equity guy like this would know better. Would you want him managing your money?
http://tinyurl.com/2ydn2z
Ivy League education + private equity analyst/manager = follow the herd right over a cliff
Shocks me how these Ivy Leaguers who have all read every Buffett report since 1977 and nearly all follow the contrarian view of investing will follow the herd on something like housing…
I have another Ivy League friend, Buffett follower, who swears that his downtown LA condo can’t drop in price because LA’s invested too much in the downtown area…
Boggles the mind…
Too funny. IMHO it won’t be too long before they start giving away a downtown condo when you open a checking account.
How on earth did these people, when the writing was clearly on the wall, make the incredibly stupid decision to buy before selling their other house? Sheesh…
I thought they used to have contingency agreements for that - no buy without selling the other. Did those gone by the wayside during the bubble?
My BIL just sold his 3/2 2000 sq ft Freemont stucco box for $1million. Purchased new in late 1990’s for $300k. The mission district is nice, but clearly there are still a few greater fools out there…. particularly on the high end.
Fremont median is down about $4/square foot. The Mission District smells like rotten garbage.
Oops, I meant to say 4% per square foot. Of course, the median is still skewed upward, and Fremont is still blue collar, which probably means your sister’s old house will be on the market again within a year. Who wants to buy a house in Fremont, anyway? Yuck.
Or this decision?:
Garfunkle, Genevieve (Graduate Student), (Zip code: 94611) $300 to JOHN KERRY FOR PRESIDENT INC on 03/16/04
Gotta love the “they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet.’” analogy. Keep holding on to that wish price and you’ll soon be pulling the trigger, if you get my meaning.
That’s a good one, arryogrande. For all you homedebtors out there looking to buy my cash: “I’m not going to just give it away!”
“but still haven’t received anything above what they consider lowball offers…All my open houses are very well attended, but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet”
I THINK that ANY potential buyers are too busy laughing at the GF and FB’s sliding down Neil’s famous JOSHUA TREE to even FIND the frigging Triggers
And these people are sitting on a Mega - Michael Bay Tranformer sized exploding Joshua Tree.
$1.7 mil in Rockridge? “Nice” area, but puh - leeeze. It’s still Oakland.
“The median home price in San Bernardino County slipped below $300,000 to $298,000, representing more than a 21 percent drop from an all-time peak of $380,000 reached in November 2006.”
298k? Hmmmm…….only about another 110K to go. We’re getting there.
“‘It’s not fair for our market,’ he said. ‘I’m seeing situations where something is on the market for three weeks and instead of going from $230,000 to $225,000 they are going to $199,000. Of course that will create multiple offers and a quick sale.’”
Lenders will do whatever needed to sell the house. Homedebtors will chase the market down and will still be way behind REOs. This is not fair, I want a bail out.
And don’t let anyone tell you distressed sales are not the market comps. When distressed sales are the norm, they are no longer distressed sales but the market standard.
As I suggested yesterday, my first guess would be that the homes which are selling have a higher (quality-adjusted) average market value than the homes that are not selling. If you know your home has dropped in value by a lot, wouldn’t that make you want to wait until after next year’s Souper Bowl after the market has bottomed out and all the buyers are back in the game?
I have a $20 bet with my husband’s buddy that houses would sell for $400k in my neighborhood (92123). I agreed that I wouldn’t count foreclosures or total dumps. I’ve still won. Hahahahaha. I tried to make it a hundred but el cheapo won’t put his money where his mouth is. I want to go double or nothing for $350k but I don’t think he’ll go for it.
If someone won’t put another $20 on a bet like that, he’s either dirt broke or (more likely) actually doesn’t even believe his own claptrap that he’s spouting! If it were $10,000 then OK, but at a piddling $20, if he won’t risk that, he knows you’re right.
I don’t know where people get this idea about distress sales are not really home sales.
Do I see cars being sold labelled “stressed sale”? Does the dealers labelled the reprocessed cars “foreclosed sale”? When I buy a car all I care is that its price is according to its condition, its mileage, and how well it is built. Do I care that the previous owner cannot afford it? This is so stupid.
Yes there are a lot of gimmicks in stressed sale, that does not mean that you can avoid them all together with a “non-stressed” sale. If the owner of a “non-stressed” sale lost his job a few months ago, is it really a “non-stressed” sale? Does he have to bring it up from to you? If the guy is moving out of the state (to get a job) then is it a stressed sale?
The medium price is simply a reflection of all sales in the market. Some of them can be outright POS, and they don’t need to be stressed sales to be a POS, same as buying a used car.
“It’s not faaaaaayeer!” -Sorry, but when I read that, I pictured some adolescent child having conniptions.
It reminds me of the conclusion of a movie called “The Lottery.” This movie is based on Shirley Jackson’s short story of the same name.
That was one spooky short story by her.
I remember that story from when I was in…. was it middle school? Yikes, that gave me nightmares at the time! Creepy, creepy.
“It’s not fair!!!!”
Reminds me of the scene at the end of The Big Lebowski, where the German nihilist refers to his girlfriend’s toe.
The Dude abides!!
“Are these the Nazis,Walter?”
“No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There’s nothing to be afraid of.”
Of course that will create multiple offers and a quick sale.’”
But Of Course!
What’s not fair is a virtual monopoly at 6% commission!
Go back to the duplex sold 4 times in 5 years, add up the RE commisions total at it comes to $ 65,580.00 at 6%. Then add in all the land transfer taxes, legals, title ins., mtge insce, moving costs, decorating costs each move etc., not to mention the financing (high) costs for at least 4 mortgages arranged (probably more, refi, 2nd mtge, etc) and you will see that all that new “equity” had already been spent on non recoverable expenses that in no way addded value to the house.
That’s one of the reasons prices have to fall and fall further to clear the market - true value is not being reflected at curent prices, regardless of what the hous”cost” someone.
$1.7 Million in Oakland-adjacent? ha ha
“Genevieve and Matt Garfunkle bought and moved into a $1.7 million, four-bedroom Colonial home in the Rockridge neighborhood of Oakland a little before Thanksgiving.”
Rockridge is a nice place to live. 1.7 mil is still a tad pricey though…
LOL! Rock Ridge is the name of the town in Blazing Saddles.
Mongo like candy.
Lol. There’s a new sheriff in town.
And remember how the citizens of Rock Ridge were described in that classic movie: “You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know… morons.”
i hope they plan on spending many thanksgivings there
like 20 or 30
The wifey got a bonus a while back so we went out to eat in Rockridge. Bonus quickly gone, and my butt still hurts.
The old house is listed on ZIllow: 4463 Moraga Ave., Oakland, CA.
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=24750836
Where do they get off calling that thing “charming”? It has a ventilation pipe thingy strung around the top edge of the living room, it’s on a very busy street, and it is painted in some of the ugliest colors I’ve ever seen. I wouldn’t buy that house from them if it were free. Disgusting!
$800k for an 1800 sq ft 3/2 with almost no yard in Oakland. Nice part of Oakland, but give me a break.
There just aren’t enough people making $300-400k/year to be able to afford these homes.
And the link shows that it was last sold in 2003 for $597,500.
And that woman started at $834K and now wants $799K?
That is $200,000 in less than 5 years or $40,000 a year which is 6.6% of what she paid. Nice work if you can get it - live in the house and make $40,000 a year……..
As for her ‘well-attended’ open houses, got some news for her. 99.5% of them are her neighbors being nosey and wanting to see the house and the asking price.
And it was already way overpriced in 2003. At bottom, I’m betting this nice little house will be $300-400k. Maybe less.
I almost rented a house on Moraga Ave for $2900 a month. The lady had been trying to sell it for $1.2m; she received a lowball offer for $1.05m and was completly insulted. There are no shops or restaurants in Piedmont. She talked about how great all the places were in Rockridge on College avenue. I decided to stay at my place in the hood of South Berkeley, its closer to the cool restaurants and BART.
Yes, Moraga Avenue is a relatively nice area of Oakland…by Oakland’s violent, disorderly standards. Tragically, though, a 10 year old boy was shot and paralyzed by a stray bullet fired by an armed robber while in a shop taking piano lessons a few weeks ago….while his mother waited outside.
This happened pretty close to the house in question (Around the corner and a couple of blocks north, at Pleasant Valley and Piedmont). Tragic.
“The problem is they haven’t sold their three-bedroom Mediterranean on which they’re still paying a monthly mortgage . . . . “‘All my open houses are very well attended,’ Genevieve Garfunkle said, ‘but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet.’”
The problem is, Garfunkle should be passing out parsely, sage, rosemary, and thyme at her open houses — not muffins.
Luv,
Jen
“The problem is they haven’t sold their three-bedroom Mediterranean on which they’re still paying a monthly mortgage . . . . “‘All my open houses are very well attended,’ Genevieve Garfunkle said, ‘but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet.’”
her non existant offers
reminds me of what another garfunkle once said
“the sounds of silence”
When I have a good bead on the site, I’m ready to pull the trigger. But I’m not referring to purchasing something.
Whoops, I meant to say, “a good bead on the target.”
Jen:
Long time no see. Where ya been?
“State officials launched a comprehensive educational program on Thursday designed to help slow the growing number of foreclosures. The ‘90 Days of Hope’ program details steps that homeowners can take to avoid losing their homes if payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages become unmanageable.”
‘275 Days of Despair’
Once again another classic comment.
275 Days of Despair.
Priceless
If I were an FB, I would LOVE that 90 day program! Not because I would re-fi, but another 90 days of rent-free living! Party on.
“Cliff Lloyd of London Properties predicts more houses will be sold this year, but said an abundance of bank-owned houses will push values down more than they should be because panicky lenders are slashing prices too much.”
Funny how the same accommodating lenders on the way up are turning into panicky lenders on the way down. Hey Mr. Lloyd of London, at least those panicky lenders are selling something.
Boy and when you take a look at those zip code losses in California that someone posted yesterday ,how can anyone conclude that the prices aren’t crashing overall .
“‘We’re going through the painful transition toward pricing that is realistic and we’re nowhere near that (yet),’ said economist Christopher Thornberg. ‘Even though your local real estate agent will tell you, it’s OK in this neighborhood or it’s a wonderful time to buy because interest rates are low, all that’s wrong. If you’re buying into this market, you’re overpaying.’”
Does anyone think that NAR really spent 40 million dollars $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in 2007 for:
“It’s never been a better time to buy a house!”?”
And did NAR announce what the Ad campaign motto & budget is for 2008?
“And did NAR announce what the Ad campaign motto & budget is for 2008?”
Great weekend topic!
“real estate is local” OR “home prices are falling everywhere except where you live”.
Nice one…I had a great laugh on this one:
“home prices are falling everywhere except where you live”
Man, I’m surprised (and hugely grateful) the NAR hasn’t yet put out a hit on Thornberg. He bitch-slaps them like no one else outside this blog.
it goes beyond a bitch-slap….he gives the NAR pimp-slaps…
What’s with all the slapping? Why not a solid punch in the nose for the NAR?
Yes, the local thing is going gangbusters. I got a postcard ad from my realtor friend just today touting our non-bubble area in a handy table of numbers. % of 2007 listings sold 45%, vs. 75% for my friend’s office. 98% of list to sale price (but anyone who reads RE blogs knows how relistings render this meaningless). Average days on market 35 vs 29 for her office. Again meaningless. Maybe I’ll email her and ask how often she pulls listings from the MLS and reposts them when she has a buyer. Wonder how to phrase that so it doesn’t sound so bad? She’s a nice person and all…
We ARE in a non-bubble area and I can understand wanting to isolate the market from broader problems. We got our loan through a local bank; it was a 100% financed 3 year ARM that was guaranteed by the University because we were buying in the uni neighborhoods (and as a result, could not be repackaged and sold by the bank, eleven years later, they still hold it). This sounds like a bad mortgage, don’t it? But it’s only gone up once and is poised to go down in August when it rolls one last time before we have it paid off. The uni plays good citizen and takes an active interest in keeping ownership high around the school.
I wonder now how lending is going with her. She seems busy. (Busy p*ssing off her colleagues by walking away from deals with mortgage fraud inherent in them, too). I’ll ask how loans are, we still have a lot of solvent small banks in our area, maybe they still do things the old fashioned way.
The text on the postcard reads: “while other parts of the country flounder, our area is looking pretty good with” …. blah blah, reiteration of table
I was at happy hour tonight and co-worker 1 said that he is trying to sell his townhouse and buy a house. Coworker 2 said: I just refinanced and now is a good time to buy, rates are low. I said, that is true, but prices are still high. DEAF EARS. denial ain’t in egypt
“‘The reality is that $700,000 house was a million or a million-one when this started,’ said Coates.”
No, the reality is that (this) $700,000 house was NEVER a million or a million-one when this started you knucklehead!
exactly!
all the smug sense of entitlement that arose from these pathetic insecure f#^ks who for the first time could boast about “living in a MILLION DOLLAR HOUSE” will provide some entertainment as it evaporates as Baillif escorts them from their “million dollar rentals”
I lived in a “million dollar” house. (Actually about 1.3 mil). Rented it, that is, for $2,100 a month!
“‘Suddenly everyone was going, ‘45 percent down,’ she said.”
45 percent down? I’m sure that won’t have much effect on all that “pent-up demand” out there for $1.3M starter homes.
Seems like lenders have taken a sudden interest in making sure that somebody else besides themselves gets to catch the falling knives…
Sounds like it’s a good time for her to wait till the house goes down another 45%.
45% down!
but it’s not fair!!!!!!!!!!!!!
‘Suddenly everyone was going, ‘45 percent down,’ she said.”
Yesterday I said that anyone who wants to live in a “luxury house” is going to need big bucks to get in the door. If this woman does not have $600k cash she has no business buying a $1.3 mil property. If she has $200k saved up, she should be very comfortable in a $500k house.
People finance Chevys, not Bentleys.
By the way, 45% down makes me smile…bargains are coming…
Not to disagree with you, RW, but where this woman lives, even the “Chevy” houses have Bentley prices (i.e. $1M and up). I doubt this $1M house she was so keen on could be described as ‘luxury’ by any reasonable standard. That is pretty much a starter (or small tract) home in many parts of the Bay Area right now.
The solution: prices fall or incomes rise. Anyone betting on the latter?
Sorry, I was responding to az_owner, not Rental Watch.
Agreed, and only people who are truly well to do will again live in mansions as they will be the only ones able to finance their purchase (due to significant 30 to 50% downpayment requirements already coming onto effect), not the hoi polloi with high LTV and teaser rate neg am, can’t pay my health insce buyer.
That is why this is going to be such a wicked downturn for housing, particularly of the McMansion type - the long term economics of financing and operating a luxury home can only be borne by the truly well to do and there is a lot less of them than houses built to their afforability level.
In addition to the oversupply price pressures will be the taxes, heat, electricty, insurances which always increase.
You will really need an income of 200K to live in a 500 to 600 K house with a minimum 25% and probably 30% down AS IT SHOULD BE!
That woman wins the Financial Ma$ochist of the year award. The Bay Area is indeed special in the sense that there are so many triple digit IQ people willing to enslave themselves in debt chains for getting whipped by a lender. Here is the part of the story Ben did not include …
Abramowitz said she had to present skittish lenders with evidence that home prices in her chosen neighborhood were not depreciating - in fact, they were rising. In the end, they agreed her 20 percent down payment was sufficient, and she is scheduled to close escrow today, which is also her birthday.
The lenders were trying to save her. But she would have none of it.
Happy Birthday, Alyson! Welcome to the FB club!
Perhaps the 45% down is to reduce the purchase price to below the conforming limit. I guess the bank isn’t willing to make the loan if they’re not sure they can sell it. Can anyone say “capital crisis”?
They do not provide her income.My bet is that she has an annual income of around $100K. There is still no problem borrowing 80% here in LA if you have the income to back it up.
$100k does not support a $800k loan.
There are nearly zero foreclosures on the island of Manhattan itself…why? 75 percent of the buildings are co-ops, and co-op boards require a lot more than 20 percent down. 30, 40, 50 percent down, and on the higher end, there are buildings that don’t allow non-cash buyers.
I wonder why people don’t get foreclosed when they have a huge stake in keeping up payments and the board makes sure they can afford the place?
“‘All my open houses are very well attended,’ Genevieve Garfunkle said, ‘but they’re not ready to pull the trigger yet.’”
Guacamole locusts…
Pull the trigger, as in shoot themselves in the head?
All your open houses are belong to us.
Somebody set up us the finance bomb.
“All your open houses are belong to us.”
Bwahahaha. I
…love you guys.
Is it wrong to believe that people you’ve never met from a blog are the best friends you’ve ever had?
Seriously, if we’re judging by good advice and general humor, you people rank a close, collective third in my friend rankings.
They give out food at these open houses? I am now officially in the house hunt!
LOL! Welcome aboard! We’re like high-class freegans (I know, I just found out about that term. Kind of disgusting if you ask me.)
When the open houses in my area feature bar-b-que tri tip or top block, salad, french bread, and santa maria or bar-b-qued beans then and only then will we be any where near the bottom. I have never been to an open house where they seved suishi or Vietnamese cabage. You guys and gals in the OC have more experience here. I’m hungry now but I think I’ll take a hit of Merlot instead. hehehehehehehe
Ever heard of nosy neighbors, looky-loos, burglers casing the joint, people looking for design ideas ?
Yessiree it’s happening right here in river city…yet another home is going to auction here on the San Mateo coast (94019). After being on the market for months it’s another “entry” level, circa 1970 3/2 home that couldn’t sell for over 700K . Gee there are actually FIVE (Whoo Hoo) homes that are priced under 700K as of this week…gawd these prices crack me up…. they are so stupid!
The articles the Ben is posting are getting much more realistic than even a couple of weeks ago. Still some bubbledenialspeak, but waaaaay less.
and just think the superbowl was only a few weeks ago
i wonder what the articles will read like in say august?
How about a bunch of what is being said here now. Except with a bunch of stuff about how no one could have seen it coming. Cheers to being no one.
my name is nobody
That you, Nemo?
Isn’t that what you say right before you poke someone in the eye?
‘The ‘90 Days of Hope’ program’.
Same old crap, if you can’t afford it today 90 days will make no difference. Postponing the inevitable! Just throw the keys on the soon to be removed/stolen granite counter top and bust a move.
I have to partially disagree with you on this one. For most it will make no difference. There are a few folks out there, however, that can afford a normal mortgage instead of an ARM. And a few of those maybe should actually try to save the house (ie not way upside down). I’m guessing the banks need those 90 days to weed out the lost causes so they can cash in the few who can pay.
But why paying interest on a depreciating asset? Walking away saves a bunch of money.
‘The ‘90 Days of Hope’ Program’ sounds like it was drawn up by RE Agent “Curveball” on a bar napkin while at an undisclosed location in Bush’s Witless Relocation Program.
Suzanne probably researched THIS ONE TOO
http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/104384/Five-Homeownership-Tax-Myths
All the more reason to buy that overpriced Mc$h!tbox. Haahaaahaaa.
And if you happen to make too much money, you hit the AMT, and you can kiss most of the deduction down the drain. Kinda surprised that wasn’t mentioned in the article (on 2nd thought, I guess I’m not).
I read somewhere that AMT doesn’t affect your ability to deduct mortgage interest.
Not when I got hit with it. A tax dude would probably answer the question better, but it ended up that I had x amount of deductions but was only allowed y amount because of the AMT.
or rather still had to pay y amount of tax in spite of the deductions (you still have the “deductions” but have to pay the tax they say)
If you lost part of your mortgage interest deduction for initial purchase financing (not the up to $100,000 in HELOC financing that is allowed under regular tax) in AMT there is a problem with your return and you should have it looked at by someone else. Primary debt interest on a home up to $1,000,000 and charitable deductions are not lost under AMT. Everything else (almost) is, especially on the Schedule A. If you refinanced and pulled money out for anything other than a remodel you could be screwed.
‘A lot of this issue was created by us,’ said Bailey. ‘We’ve turned our homes into investments where we live. The ATM mentality has to go.’
Us? We? Speak for yourself Mr. Bailey.
“The MTM mentality has to go.”
Mr. Market is taking it out as of this writing, along with the trash.
MTM = ATM
“Robert Bailey, a regional VP for the National Association of Realtors, knows a Santa Cruz couple who refinanced their way to foreclosure. The couple bought a house in 2004 for $486,000, refinanced in 2005 for $535,000, refinanced in 2006 twice — for $600,000 and then $700,000.”
I guess it beats working for a living.
If they get to walk off without anything more than a ding on their credit, they were the smart ones. Maybe not moral or ethical, but making several hundred thousand dollars tax free for just signing some papers isn’t all that bad of a deal.
I wonder how you embellish that on your resume.
Serial Refinancer. 2000-2007
Earned over 350k in six years.
Single handedly raised comps and property values 300%
Work well with others especially friendly appraisers
ROTFL!
Resume is easy: managed family trust funds and investments - reaped huge profits. They probably made more than if they had worked. The problem is most of these stupids spent it all on junk.
I realize that mortgages in CA are nonrecourse, but does the same apply for refinance money?
No I don’t think so. Only the first mortgage is non recourse.
True but remember all non-judicial foreclousers are non-recourse and a judicial foreclosure is very rare. Lots of time, delays etc.
MTM = ATM
No. MTM == Mary Tyler Moore
I wish banks went MTM. mark to market
ATM in the porn industry = Ass to Mouth.
I’d say that’s just getting started for the FB’s
There is an image I can do without.
“In Fresno County, nearly 74% of the families who bought their houses in 2006 and 55% who purchased them in 2007 owe more on the house than it is worth, according to RealtyTrac.”
Old: Fresno
New: Walknow
Hey Ed at the Bureau. How’s that worth now? Should have listened to me.
“Rents are flat…houses that used to rent from $1200 to $1500 are now renting for $900 to $1200.
That statement for me summarizes this entire housing debacle. That is, the inability to compute that housing values are actually going down in price.
It also confirms what I’ve suspected all along. The REIC shills are either borderline moronic (best case scenario) to severly mentally challenged (worst case scenario).
I can understand denial, but the above situation is not merely denial.
It can only be explained by near total synapse connection shutdown.
It sold for $159,000 in 2002, $218,000 in 2003, $316,000 in 2004 and $400,000 in 2005. He estimated the current owner, however, is losing about $11,274 a year.”
Is that all? I would have guessed it to be higher. Oh well, life is a beach.
What incredibly insane numbers.
Crazy numbers alright and thats just the commissions!
159K + 218K + 316K + 400K = $ 1,093,000 X 6% = $ 65,580
In 3 to 4 years - unbelievable!
Oh that’s a misprint for sure. I believe that’s a loss of $11,274 per MONTH.
Seriously. Maybe $11,000 a year negative cash flow, if he’s lucky, but what’s the depreciation gonna be, $3,000 a month?
All I can say is that for the first time, I actually feel that there will be a time in the next few years that people who make decent incomes who save and live financially prudent lives will be able to afford homes on their own terms in the Bay Area. I sleep very well at night. In the meantime, this is all very entertaining and just a tad rewarding in a sort of twisted, “Vengeance is mine!” kind of way. wah-hahhahahaha!
“Sales of new and used houses in Fresno County…”
LOL, the MSM already uses the phrase “used houses”.
To coin a term from the automotive world, how about pre-loaned?
The ‘90 Days of Hope’ program details steps that homeowners can take to avoid losing their homes if payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages become unmanageable.
***********************
Sometimes hope is all ya got…
ot-sorry-this caught my eye
from the nypd blotter
realtors are getting angry
A man was arrested for assaulting an acquaintance after she had chastised him for missing his real-estate class, cops said yesterday.
Clifford Minott, 23, was talking with two women on East 17th Street near Beverly Road in Midwood at 2 p.m. last Saturday, sources said. One asked why he had missed a class they attend.
Minott allegedly replied that he had been tired and the other woman, 19, admonished him, saying, “That’s no excuse.”
In a bizarre burst of rage, Minott allegedly punched her in the face, shattering her jaw.
Police arrested Minott on Wednesday, sources said.
Makes you wonder what he’s going to do when someone comes to his open house, laughs at the wishing price, eats all the cookies, and leaves an upper tanker.
and leaves an upper tanker.?
What did Mr. Spock find when he looked in the toilet?
The Captains Log
LOL uncontrollably! I’ve never heard that term before, but I have heard it referred to as a “Cincinatti Steamer.”
priceless. i like the guy.
You like the guy because he shattered a girl’s jaw? You and Sammy Schadenfreude belong in the same jail cell together.
I don’t understand the chip on your shoulder argument. Im just an outside observer but aren’t we all friends on this blog.
I think when someone is cheering on breaking a woman’s jaw (and I suspect more than one man here thought that was “funny”) it crosses the boundries that friends create. Sorry, but if you laugh at, encourage or look away from an injustice you are part of the problem. And it was a stupid, gross comment. My first friend with a broken jaw was a 16 year old in high school whose boyfriend like to smack her around. I’m sure macho Simon would have been in the locker room telling the ass what a stud he was, or maybe even being the ass thinking it’s ok to punch a girl you supposedly love. Either way it’s pathetic.
The couple bought a house in 2004 for $486,000, refinanced in 2005 for $535,000, refinanced in 2006 twice — for $600,000 and then $700,000.”
“Now the bank owns their home — because they couldn’t refinance again.
—————————————————————————–
The couple never “bought” anything.
The banks owned the house the whole time.
And paid them to occupy it, until it decided it had paid enough.
That’s actually quite profound.
nice work, if you can get it
“‘The reality is that $700,000 house was a million or a million-one when this started,’ said Coates.”
The reality is that it was probably a $300,000 house before it started.
“‘This office lists a lot of foreclosure properties, and we want to get them sold,’ said Keller Williams partner Lori Mode. ‘I’ve lived in Elk Grove for over 30 years and I hate to see it like this.’ Nonetheless, the sooner they’re sold, the faster it’s back to normal.”
Hate to break it to you Lori, but you’re living the new normal.
Nova is exactly right!
This Crash is not going below normal, it’s just getting back TO normal.
This crash goes to 11
to a Big Bottom…
I’m looking for pound notes
Loose change
Bad checks, anything
Gimme some money
Gimme some money
Did you happen to get invited to hear Leslie Appleton-Young at the Embassy Suites Hotel in San Luis Obispo?
No, when is it…I’d pay to see such comedy. I have some questions for her…
Remind me…New Originals? Or Original Originals?
…in a Hell Hole.
I’ve got this funny feeling that when most people are going to buy their “bargain” home its going to be around the point where their bank fails!
Fractional reserve lending …. there is no escape. All must succumb to sub-prime.
This possibility gets covered by having a physical account at the bank of Au, or Ag.
Regarding what Ben and many others kept predicting about owners walking away, I have to say I had my doubts as to how widespread it would be. No longer. Check this “Should I stay or should I go” post today on Pigginton.
User Forum Topic
Submitted by DJNinSD on February 15, 2008 - 2:29pm.
I am in a house that I’ve owned for 3 years now. The market price is about $20k less than what I paid. I did a $0 down loan and have a 1st and 2nd mortgage - both are interest only and total about $3,600 a month. I’m wondering if it is worth it to keep making that kind of a payment? I can’t sell the house as I don’t have any funds to make up for the difference. I’m wondering if I should try to get the lender to agree to a short sale…or let it go into foreclosure? To keep it for 2-3 years more would mean spending another $80,000 to $130,000, on top of the $130,000 already put into the house - and for what? To then sell it for the same that I paid? Any suggestions on what I should do?? I realize no one really knows what is in store - will the prices continue to drop….have the prices bottomed out…will they go up in the next year or two - but I just am not sure what to do. Thanks for your opinions…
You were right Ben, most people can’t find it in them to keep paying a fortune for something that is not worth it anymore. I can’t say I disagree with them.
Real estate agents must be looking into the abyss right now. Sales down 30% - 50%, price declines of 15% - 30%, foreclosure sales, walkaways, jingle mail, etc, etc, etc. The market can no longer provide gainful employment for all of the RE agents in this business. Yet, whenever I run into one it’s the same old story: “It’s a great time to buy a house.”, “Interest rates have really dropped.” and “There are some great buys out there.” They’d be better off using their time doing some networking and finding out who’s hiring. During the lifetimes of all those alive today, the real estate market will never again return to the go-go years that ended in 2006. Yet these agents think they can wait this one out and just keep a positive attitude. I remember seeing the same thing happen during the dot-com and telecom busts that occurred here in the Bay Area in 2000 - 2001. Folks who were in those businesses and reacted quickly, usually by getting a lower-paying job in another industry, are doing OK now. Those who hung on (even to the point of working for start-ups for no pay — remember that!!) are still living a very hand-to-mouth existence. Here’s my 2 cents: get out now, find something else to do (bag groceries, work for a telemarketer, go temp, whatever), anything with a weekly paycheck. It’s over. Take your fork out of it while you still can.
“‘It’s not fair for our market,’ he said. ‘I’m seeing situations where something is on the market for three weeks and instead of going from $230,000 to $225,000 they are going to $199,000. Of course that will create multiple offers and a quick sale.’”
You want a Kleenex?
- “Annie Brown, a Realtor in Walnut Creek, said foreclosed homes in Brentwood that were $700,000 a couple of years ago are now selling for $450,000 to $475,000. ‘The bank-owned homes are really being priced to sell,’ she said.” - granted, that’s her guesstimate but a $250K haircut off $700K is a 35% decline.
And two pressing indicators - the inventory levels and the expiring ARM’s - have only just began to play their combined role.
brentwood is a lot closer to stockton (foreclosure capital) than to san francisco (its different here). this is the central valley, there are no barriers to building more houses. by the time its settled there is no reason any house in Brentwood should sell for more than $100/sf. And with abandoned houses for neighbors, they will probably sell for $80/sf. I was playing poker with someone who said Discovery Bay is different. Then he mentioned all his neighbors had new boats, jetskis, snow mobiles, RVs, big SUVs and ORVs. (all needing $3.50 a gallon gas) (probably all paid for with cash out refinancing. If you dont know discovery bay, it has lagoons, every house backs onto water of the delta; so everyone can have their boat in the back yard. When the levies fail, rising sea levels occur, or the land subsides a bit; all of Discovery Bay will be underwater; and im not talking financially underwater.
“Then he mentioned all his neighbors had new boats, jetskis, snow mobiles, RVs, big SUVs and ORVs. (all needing $3.50 a gallon gas) (probably all paid for with cash out refinancing. ”
Car repos are way, way up.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-02-13-repo-man_N.htm
When the Hayward Fault ruptures, Discovery Bay and all of the surroundings are in for big trouble. Think Katrina….
NON commissioned sellers agent
A local RE agent will now sell your house for no commission, Just an hourly rate for time spent plus advertising cost.
not so stupid agent has income again
“Cliff Lloyd of London Properties predicts more houses will be sold this year, but said an abundance of bank-owned houses will push values down more than they should be because panicky lenders are slashing prices too much.”
Don’t Panic. But if you are going to panic, be the first! The banks aren’t stupid, they know the houses are over priced.