February 17, 2008

Buyers Are Not Buying

A report from the Idaho Statesman. “Four area home builders and three investors stuck with seven vacant luxury homes have decided desperate times call for desperate measures. They’re going to try to sell their homes, originally priced from $900,000 to $1.7 million, at an auction March 1 in Meridian. The auctioner says homes will be discounted up to 40 percent - although there are no minimum bids, and the owners can reject even the highest bids if they aren’t satisfied.”

“‘We have had housing auctions before, but not seven luxury homes at one time,’ said Phil Hoover, an associate broker in Boise. ‘That’s what makes it significant. It goes to show that the higher you go in price, the softer the market gets.’”

“Three of the homes are in Star, two in Middleton and one apiece in Boise and Eagle. Of the 449 homes sold in the Valley in January, only five were in Star and eight in Middleton, according to the Intermountain MLS.”

“MLS figures also show that Star has a 42-month supply of homes, and Middleton a 15-month supply based on January’s sales rate.”

“‘It is interesting to note that six of the seven homes are in the hardest-hit areas and price range for oversupply,’ said Shaun Tracy, an associate broker in Boise. ‘Once again, this speaks to overbuilding in the wrong location.’”

“Tracy said that even though the owners reserve the right to refuse the highest offer, they could also decide to take it thinking that ‘it’s the best I’m going to get.’”

The Oregonian. “Portland-area homeowners can still smile about home values, but sales trends suggest a frown will break out soon. The inventory of unsold homes rocketed to nearly 13 months’ worth of sales in January. That’s up 50 percent from December and the highest since record-keeping began in 1998. The previous high was 10 months in January 2000.”

“Brokers say they’ve already had to talk sellers into starting prices 5 percent to 10 percent lower than they’d like. The troubles, though, are with buyers: They’re not buying. The number of January sales fell off nearly one-third from a year earlier.”

The Gazette Times from Oregon. “Housing prices in Corvallis gained a little ground in January, but the market continued its sluggish pace at the first of the year. Emboldened buyers were making low offers and seemed prepared to wait for incentives from sellers as more houses pop up on the market.”

“‘There are sales taking place, but I tell people this isn’t a place where you’re going to get multiple offers,’ said Alan Deitch of Raising the Bar Real Estate. ‘If you’re going to sell your house, you’ve got to be the best option out there.’”

“In Corvallis, the number of active real estate listings increased during the course of the month. There were 213 homes on the market during the first week of January. By the first week of February, that number had grown to 224.”

“Mid-range and higher priced homes are sitting on the market, as homeowners seem less likely to be thinking about upgrading even with mortgage interest rates declining. ‘There’s not the enthusiasm we’ve had in the past,’ Deitch said. ‘Without enthusiasm, we could have interest rates at 1 percent and it wouldn’t matter.’”

The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “A string of new buildings, some empty and others half-filled, line this city’s light-industrial corridor — a reflection of what happens when a slowing economy collides with too much speculative construction, according to property owners, and real estate and economic development representatives.”

“A downturn in Central Oregon’s housing market has contributed to a weakening in demand for industrial space by companies in businesses related to housing construction, those observers say.”

“‘Redmond’s industrial market got too big for its britches in 2007,’ according to the report. ‘The simple fact is that new building construction supply exceeded the demand by a factor of three.”"

“Developers are not in panic mode, but another year without filling their spaces would hurt, said Eric Batha, who built 32,000 square feet of industrial condominium space in the Pioneer Industrial Park. So far, the development has not sold any units.”

“‘There are a lot of tire-kickers, a lot of people on the fence that are taking a wait-and-see attitude,’ Batha said. ‘There’s a creepy feeling about the economy. Nobody wants to jump in and have it be a mistake. They want to wait it out and see what happens.’”

“The market has slowed for two reasons — supply and demand, Prince said. ‘Housing-related companies have pulled back because of the slowdown in the residential market and a fair number of (industrial) spaces are already on the market,’ Prince said. ‘There’s a lot to pick from.’”

“Potential buyers of Batha’s condominium units include plumbers, electricians and secure storage companies — the type of businesses that are hurt by the slowing housing market, Batha said.”

“One owner of 16 industrial condominium suites in the Pioneer Industrial Park is offering to pay the first two years of a mortgage on six of the suites that would lock in the buyer as the owner, said broker Steve Larsen.”

The News Times in Oregon. “Veronica Vasquez, the senior loan officer at Family Equity Group in Hillsboro, said that since the housing bubble burst last year, her work has shifted. While she used to help people buy new homes, she’s now helping homeowners get out of the existing mortgages.”

“But with about 50 percent of clients coming to her with bad credit due to late mortgage payments, her hands are often tied, making her play the part of credit counselor.”

“‘I just go and talk to the banks directly and try to negotiate, to try to lock the rate and try to help them keep the same loan,’ Vasquez said.”

“RC Hernandez, the owner of Family Equity Group, said that it’s difficult to turn people away at the door of his mortgage firm when there’s little that can be done. ‘It’s tough feeling helpless because you think there’s got to be something you can do,’ Hernandez said. ‘Sometimes selling isn’t even an option.’”

“The flood of loan troubles has Hernandez and other mortgage brokers inundated with people seeking help. ‘There are mounds of applications from people who needed something to happen yesterday,’ Hernandez said.”

“Ted Troutman, a Beaverton bankruptcy lawyer, said his workload is up over 50 percent from last year. He’s working not only with people who have lost their homes because of the subprime mess, but also with people who are out of a job because of the bad economy, which is tied to the collapse of the housing market.”

“And, things may get worse before they get better. In 2006 1,057 subprime loans were signed in District 29. By the end of 2009, most of those will have jumped to a much higher interest rate and many of the homeowners will likely be looking for a way out.”

“‘We’re going to see twice the applications that we saw during the peak of the housing market,’ Hernandez said grimly.”

The Peninsula Daily News from Washington. “Publicity about mortgage foreclosures is scaring people out of building or buying houses, a builder, a banker and two real estate agents said Monday.”

“‘We do not need this,’ said Kevin Russell, waving a copy of Monday’s Peninsula Daily News and its front-page story about local sawmill layoffs driven by weak housing sales.”

“‘Why do we let the media drive our lives?’ asked Russell, the head of the president of the North Peninsula Building Association as he addressed the Port Angeles Regional Chamber of Commerce’s membership luncheon.”

“They might seem bad, though, to the nearly 300 workers temporarily idled from the Inferfor Pacific and KPly mills in Port Angeles and nearly an additional 100 at Portac mills in Beaver and Forks. Another mill, Port Angeles Hardwood, has temporarily cut its daily operating hours by 20 percent.”

“And the number of houses priced below $200,000 in Port Angeles has increased 24-fold, according to agent Brooke Nelson. Only three such houses were on the market in December 2005, she said. Today there are 73 in Port Angeles and another 130 across Clallam County.”

“‘It’s amazing to me what’s available,’ Nelson said.”

“Should someone build or buy a house, he or she can expect it to double in value over the next seven to 10 years, said Dan Gase, president of the Coldwell Banker Uptown Realty, citing the history of housing prices in the city.”

“Gase went so far as to suggest investing in a house as a way to finance a child’s or grandchild’s college education.”

“Gase said the slack market won’t last forever. ‘There’s a huge demand beginning to build up here,’ he said. ‘You don’t really have to wait for the feeding frenzy. Have faith in our community. Don’t think about the short term.’”

“That short-term chaos in the mortgage market, said Roger Kelso of First Federal Savings & Loan Association, is due to ‘a perfect storm’ of ‘unbridled enthusiasm’ by investors. It also was caused by companies putting homebuyers into mortgages they had no hopes of affording when the loans’ interest rates rose, said Kelso.”

“‘You’re seeing communities that are decimated by foreclosures,’ he said.”

“The burst bubble in home construction and sales has resulted in more contractors available and eager to work, Russell said. ‘For those of you who were looking for a contractor at the height of the boom,’ he said, ‘now is a great time to call.’”

The Columbian from Washington. “Waiting to buy a new house in Clark County? Local builders say now is a good time to do it, and they’re spreading the word with a new ad campaign and event to showcase their products.”

“In April, a tour of more than 30 new homes will wrap up the ‘Buy New Buy Now’ promotion launched this month, according to the Building Industry Association of Clark County. The group is sponsoring the $80,000 campaign, being paid for by nine local home builders, along with Parr Lumber, Riverview Bank and Countrywide Financial.”

“The advertisements urge buyers to consider low mortgage interest rates and reduced new-home prices, said Morall Olson, VP of the 1,050-member building industry association. ‘We want to get the word out that it’s a great time to buy,’ he said.”

“The TV and radio spots also downplay the notion that home values could continue to slide in Clark County. A total of 312 new and pre-owned homes were sold here in January with a median price (half for more, half for less) of $245,383. It was a 7 percent decline from the median price of $263,900 for the 517 homes that sold in January 2007.”

“The cooling market has kept buyers riding the fence, said Olson, owner of a Kalama-based custom home builder. ‘The reports create a perception of uncertainty for anybody looking to buy or sell. It scares them,’ he said.”

“The number of homes for sale here climbed to a 12.7-month supply in December, according to the Portland-based MLS. ‘There’s no doubt in my mind we’re going to work off some of this inventory,’ said Jon Girod, president of Vancouver-based Quail Homes. ‘The bad news is behind us. We’ve got to stay focused on what’s ahead.’”

The Bellingham Herald from Washington. “This is the time of year when bids are being requested for large public and commercial projects, so local construction companies are trying to figure out how many projects to pursue and the level of competition they can expect.”

“While residential construction is expected to slow down significantly this year, workers should be fairly busy on commercial and public projects. ‘Housing construction has been a boom-and-bust kind of industry as long as I’ve been in this business, but commercial is much more steady,’ said Steve Isenhart, co-owner of Tiger Construction.”

“‘Commercial and custom home projects seemed to be coming along at about the same pace (as previous years), but condominium and apartment projects have really fallen off,’ said Dave Christensen of Christensen Design Management.”

“Some projects, particularly in residential, have halted as financial institutions have become more cautious about lending money. ‘You see projects stall in residential that haven’t been tried in Bellingham, such as the condo towers,’ said Myles Donnelly of Franklin Corp.”

The Seattle PI from Washington. “The Seattle skyline will change, as will the central business district, with the construction of a twin-tower, 43-story building planned for a half-block site across Fifth Avenue from The Westin Hotel.”

“Offering high-end hotel, condominium and office space, as well as deluxe retail space at ground level, developers of the 1.2 million-square-foot building at 1913 Fifth Ave. will break ground next year, said project manager Alec Carlin of Hummingbird Advisors of Seattle.”

“Ishmael Leyva, of New York was chosen as architect, ‘not because we don’t like Seattle designers, but because we feel Seattle is ready for something that’s more edgy, more ‘out there,’ Carlin said.”

“‘This is a sophisticated design that says Seattle looks not toward Vancouver but toward Chicago and New York,’ he said. ‘It also says Seattle is ready for higher density downtown, which has happened in Vancouver and in Portland.’”

“Hummingbird hopes to benefit from the sweeping development of South Lake Union, Carlin said. ‘We’re hoping it will revive that area, which is on the edge of Belltown, and make it into a vital, vibrant pedestrian area,’ he said. ‘It’s a pretty dead block right now.’”

“Though Seattle is awash with condos, Hummingbird said it thinks the market will support more, as the idea of downtown living is catching on. ‘Right now, there are no downtown supermarkets or Laundromats, but as the density grows, the services will follow behind them,’ he said.”

“This might seem like a strange time to bring hundreds of new suburban houses to the market, but the folks who work for developer Murray Franklyn don’t seem worried. ‘It was in an area that we strategically knew wasn’t oversaturated with inventory,’ Murray Franklyn partner George Reece said.”

“In January, the inventory of houses for sale in the Redmond area was up almost 60 percent from a year earlier, while sales were down nearly 40 percent, according to the Northwest MLS. Countywide, inventory increased about 56 percent and sales dropped almost 31 percent.”

“Put another way, there were enough homes on the market last month to satisfy eight months of sales at the January pace in the Redmond area and 7.5 months countywide.”

“The slowdown didn’t deter Jill and Dan Hanken from agreeing to buy a home in Redmond Ridge East.”

“‘We felt like this was where we wanted to live and that was the house we wanted. We just didn’t want to risk it being sold,’ Jill Hanken said.”

“She said she also felt confident they’d be able to sell their current home.”




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60 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-17 08:50:09

I’ve followed these Bellingham condo towers a long time. The paper hints that the projects are dead. Any locals have news on this?

Also, the Bend Bulletin had this clarification:

In a story headlined “Industrial and empty,” the quotes, “Redmond’s industrial market got too big for its britches in 2007” and, “The simple fact is that new building construction supply exceeded the demand by a factor of three” came from a market summary analysis released by Compass Commercial Real Estate Services.

Also, Eric Batha, who built 32,000 square feet of industrial condominium space in the Pioneer Industrial Park, does not have any ownership in the project and is not trying to sell the condominium spaces.

Comment by sd renter
2008-02-17 09:40:13

“Should someone build or buy a house, he or she can expect it to double in value over the next seven to 10 years, said Dan Gase, president of the Coldwell Banker Uptown Realty, citing the history of housing prices in the city.”

Sorry Daniel, but you need to be fed to the lions. You as a realtwhore, cannot legally say that…implied appreciation guarantees. You are only promise appreciation when you are one on one with your client but not to the media.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-17 09:44:24

True, but it is an interesting contrast nonetheless. I can recall posting statements like this all the time in 2005. It was almost universally accepted that RE only went up. What a difference 2 years makes.

Comment by Crash and Burn
2008-02-17 11:47:44

And thousands and thousands of fool just ate it up, Realtors were listened to like gods. I mean people listened when they said such and such will go up this much.
They should have just dropped money from helecopters. The mess would be a lot smaller, and easier to clean up.

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Comment by James
2008-02-17 11:48:32

I was just thinking about the entire “buy now or be priced out forever” campaign in 04.

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Comment by Emmi
2008-02-17 22:10:49

I spent so much time arguing with people that it couldn’t last. Deaf ears it seemed like, but the lucky ones were already priced out at that point.

 
 
 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-02-17 15:05:06

I would just tell him to put that promise in writing and sign his name to it - and to note (in writing) that I as a buyer relied upon his advice saying that in buying a home.

That would make it an easily enforecable warranty.

Wanna see how fast the guy burns the wind getting aaway from such a document without signing it?

 
 
Comment by b-hamster
2008-02-17 10:40:10

There’s been a hole in the ground in downtown for as long as I’ve live in Bellingham (appr two years). The one tower was initially slated for tewnty-three storeys, then reduced to eighteen. To date, it is still just an empty lot with a fence around it. Condos abound in Bellingham, yet many more are still coming to market. Many will probably be turned into rental units, as the economy in Bellingham doesn’t support the home prices. But too, there is no shortage of rental units here - either homes or mulit-units.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-17 10:48:23

Thanks.

 
Comment by aqius
2008-02-17 11:09:45

undeleveloped hole in the ground. sounds just like downtown sacramento.

Comment by Crash and Burn
2008-02-17 11:50:57

By the time this ends there will be holes in the ground from coast to coast

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Comment by borderbuster
2008-02-17 18:27:55

might mention that for the past 20-30 years, very seldom saw a trustee’s sale notice in the bellingham herald. Now seeing about 1 a week for the past 6 months.
Even one of our “premier” developments, Semiahmoo, has a few homes with trustee sale notices now. Most of the Semiahmoo home owners were/are from out of state and a lot of the homes are “summer places”.
Home prices range between $400k to several million and most were custom built to order, although there are a few condo-townhouses in the $300k range.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2008-02-17 17:59:14

I have been to Redmond. It is a vacation/second home town. There is nothing else, and I can foresee no need for industrial space now or in the future. You might as well reserve those buildings as a hotel for when aliens visit the earth.

 
 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2008-02-17 09:05:59

““Brokers say they’ve already had to talk sellers into starting prices 5 percent to 10 percent lower than they’d like. The troubles, though, are with buyers: They’re not buying. The number of January sales fell off nearly one-third from a year earlier.”

Classic statement…the losers/bagholders blame the winners for not paying the same price that the loser paid for their severely overpriced POS.

And since the RE agents stomach is grumbling, they just want some “action” and blame the buyer too. Good luck representing greedy bag holders who are gonna protract the stalemate. I guess we’ll call it the “RE Diet” as your greedy RE agent stomach contracts.

When you talk about 40% off only then we will even consider putting our toe in the water!!!

Comment by ric
2008-02-17 09:30:34

That argument is just a complete and utter non-starter. By definition, if the buyer isn’t buying, there is no buyer. If there is no buyer, how can one blame the buyer? Remove the buyer, and only the seller and the broker remain. Therefore, the problem MUST be with one of them.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-17 09:40:37

One of the fun things about this blog is helping the REIC understand the need to look in the mirror.

Comment by lowball
2008-02-17 09:46:22

ROTFL!!! :-)

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Comment by SeattleMoose
2008-02-17 09:11:17

“Why do we let the media drive our lives?’ asked Russell, the head of the president of the North Peninsula Building Association as he addressed the Port Angeles Regional Chamber of Commerce’s membership luncheon.”

Hey Kevin, you didn’t utter a peep when the media headline was “Port Angeles Home Prices Soar”.

So I guess it is not about whether the media “drives our lives”, it is only the “direction” that is at issue.

Can’t have your cake…..but you CAN have Ramen.

Comment by laughing boy
2008-02-17 11:19:11

Spot on.

Ramen… LOL!

 
Comment by Crash and Burn
2008-02-17 12:02:26

Hold on there. Not everyone is eating Ramen. Some of those Port Angles Home owners were smart and they sold. They said HOW MUCH??? HELL YES!! They may be renting, they may have more than one home but they are doing fine. And let’s not forget that half mil tax free. Dude, The smart ones are eating cake.

 
Comment by OK_Land_lord
2008-02-17 20:29:00

I like ramen every now and then.

 
 
Comment by Hondje
2008-02-17 09:12:25

“the losers/bagholders blame the winners for not paying the same price that the loser paid for their severely overpriced POS.”

Ah, yes…the winner’s curse.

 
Comment by WantsOut
2008-02-17 09:18:43

Got a listing from a RE broker yesterday. In the property description it stated “Hurry, price will increase after March 3rd”. Didn’t specify March 3rd of what year. Talk about delusional.

Comment by steadykat
2008-02-17 12:22:02

Angst in SoUtah. This is in the “comments” on an article about our this years “Parade of Homes”. It’s from a local “builder 5″. He’s correct on a couple of his reasons for slower sales. However, he just can’t help but end his comment with the “now is a great time to buy”:

For all of you naysayers out there who are negative about the building industry–

The fact that there is so much inventory on the market is due to the fact that homeowners (sellers) have the preconceived notion that their home is still worth what it was 2 yeas ago and there are realtors in this community who don’t have the gall to tell these sellers that they are over priced. They are just looking for the listing, wasting advertising dollars, hoping for a sale.

Now is one of the best times to purchase a home. Rates are lower, prices are lower, and there are some great deals out there.

Let me add this: we just crossed over that 30 month inventory “thing” here in Washington County.

 
Comment by mrjauk
2008-02-17 23:03:50

So, I’d ask the seller why he wants to sell now. He only has to wait two weeks and he’ll get more money for the place.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-17 09:31:50

‘Right now, there are no downtown supermarkets or Laundromats, but as the density grows, the services will follow behind them,’

Condo developers nationwide keep saying this. They keep thinking they can simply manufacture balanced communities. For Alec Carlin’s info, he is modeling an idealized version of “New York and Chicago”. My neighborhood has been one of the most built up in the city for decades upon decades and still commercial development lags.

 
Comment by gmork
2008-02-17 09:39:31

“Should someone build or buy a house, he or she can expect it to double in value over the next seven to 10 years, said Dan Gase, president of the Coldwell Banker Uptown Realty, citing the history of housing prices in the city.”

“Gase went so far as to suggest investing in a house as a way to finance a child’s or grandchild’s college education.”

I wonder if this guy is following his own advice? And, what sort of return(s) he’s gotten/is getting?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-17 09:47:02

Giving 1998 advice in 2008.

 
Comment by GH
2008-02-17 10:13:09

My father in law after seeing his friend become Qualcom millionaires in 2000 purchased 200 shares at $200. OOPS! The key to profitable buying and selling is buy low sell high, not buy high sell low.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-02-17 10:42:59

I just saw a TV commercial by the Realtors that stated, “on average home prices double every 10 years.” How is it legal for them to make such a statement? The NAR needs to be sued back to the stone age.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-17 10:50:11

That’s nonsense. True for stocks/funds though. House prices historically go up less than half % above inflation.

Comment by scdave
2008-02-17 11:31:46

up less than half % above inflation ??

Statistically maybe but introduce some leverage covered by operating income and the ROI can be much greater…

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Comment by Crash and Burn
2008-02-17 12:36:16

If you buy a house in Oil City You are so right. But if you do your homework. and know the political system. You figure the limiting growth factors and most important of all know what to pay and no more. You look at hundreds of houses. You can make money in Real Estate. Not Now…But when this mess ends. And it will. There will be a giant flush out in few years. That is the time. Oh sorry one last thing helps. And that is luck. But Luck is somthing you make all by yourself.

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Comment by scdave
2008-02-17 13:10:47

And that is luck ??

OR, good timing….Good timing can make you look awfully smart….

 
 
 
Comment by ric
2008-02-17 10:56:59

Problem is, everything doubles in price every ten years.

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi

What cost $1 in 1970 would cost $2.25 in 1980.

Comment by skip
2008-02-17 14:48:04

What cost $1 in 1970 would cost $5.60 in 2007.

Wow…

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Comment by ric
2008-02-17 14:56:20

ain’t fiat money great?

 
 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-02-17 15:09:12

Except incomes.

Those have not doubled every ten years during the past 38 years.

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Comment by flatffplan
2008-02-17 11:35:56

1990 to 2000 nope
2005 to 2015 I’ll bet no

 
Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-02-17 11:50:21

If you google the phrase “knowledge doubles,” you will get a bunch of interesting links about medical knowledge and engineering knowledge and how much time it takes for these things to double. Productivity gains, combined with increase in knowledge are the reason stocks, in general, have a 10% annual gain over several decades-long. Some of my fellow doom and gloomers don’t grasp this. Instead they would denounce it as Pollyannish but have no intelligent counterargument. I can only point to VFINX, in operation over several recessions, two wars, and the stock crash of ‘87 and 2000. It has returned an average of 12% per year since 1976.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-02-17 12:14:02

Productivity gains, combined with increase in knowledge are the reason stocks, in general, have a 10% annual gain over several decades-long. Some of my fellow doom and gloomers don’t grasp this. Instead they would denounce it as Pollyannish but have no intelligent counterargument.

*sigh*

Try 1929 to 1950 (or so). It took that long for the stock market to recover back to it’s 1929 prices, IIRC. That was after a decade or two of massive productivity gains, not unlike what we’ve just seen in the late 80’s and 90’s.

It is completely possible to be in the stock market at the wrong time if you need to actually spend the money within a certain timeframe as opposed to leaving it to your heirs.

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Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-02-17 13:44:50

Of course, you did not consider that if you dollar cost averaged in stock index funds from 1929 to 1950 (or so) you would be much better ahead than if you were mostly in bonds. I put up a link a few weeks ago supporting my point.

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-02-17 18:01:20

I don’t know if I caught you, but I’d be interested by the link if you can repost it.

One of the issues with the theoretical is that there were no index funds in the stock market back then. Also, what type of bonds are you talking about? In theory, simply hanging on to the money and even getting 3% would get you ahead in those years.

Also, what model did they use for the funds? Alot of business simply folded in the great depression. What happens in modern index funds when that happens?

 
 
 
 
Comment by lazarus
2008-02-17 11:06:52

It would be a good idea for Mr Gase to start a new business offering insurance to buyers against losses, should his claims not prove to be true, with a charge secured against his house.

 
Comment by BottomFisher
2008-02-17 11:25:52

When Dan Gase, president of the Coldwell Banker Uptown Realty speaks…….people listen…..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz huh?

 
Comment by JohnF
2008-02-17 11:35:30

Not only is it a “great time to buy”, now it’s a “great time to build”….these guys are shameless! Maybe if you are a potential buyer, it’s just a “great time to wait”.

 
 
Comment by Alex
2008-02-17 09:49:45

Does any remember the Portland’s condition before this ‘period of growth’ ? I do. I think that the california gen xers that have relocated to the Alberta are going to be suprised when a corrective Oregon ecomonic situation comes back. I think Utah Phillips says that people move to Oregon because they there are no jobs there.
Too bad you can’t pawn a star shaped tattoo or a pair of self made skinny jeans. Will modest mouse move back to LA, lets hope. Bring on the good times.

Comment by Ernst Blofeld
2008-02-17 13:53:52

Yep–Oregon is still a boom and bust economy. Traditionally in the busts population drops as people decide they need a job, and there are none to be had in the state. There will be moving vans leaving Bend and Medford before this is over.

 
 
Comment by frankie
2008-02-17 10:22:09

Northern Rock to be nationalised

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7249575.stm

As an upright UK tax payer does that make me a share holder in the Rock, if so it’s welcome too the happy knife catcher society frankie boy. Just born lucky I guess ;-(

Comment by Crash and Burn
2008-02-17 12:15:44

the first domino falls.

 
 
Comment by michael
2008-02-17 11:13:51

“buyers are not buying”

nahh…sellers ain’t sellin.

 
Comment by michael
2008-02-17 11:19:20

‘Without enthusiasm, we could have interest rates at 1 percent and it wouldn’t matter.’”

and when these words were spoken, the storm clouds lifted and as the beautiful sunlight beamed down upon him in a spotlight fashion a magnificent white dove flew above and took a steamy dump upon his face.

Comment by snake charmer
2008-02-17 18:03:30

This is why I read threads besides those dealing with Florida. LOL!

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2008-02-17 11:32:41
 
Comment by Happy Renter in Vancouver
2008-02-17 11:43:08

I’m surprised Seattle developers would say they are looking elsewhere than Vancouver for inspiration! Where else except Vancouver can developers charge 600K for a 550 sqare foot rat box (and the rat is happy)…

Comment by Sea Salt
2008-02-18 01:03:38

At some point the pent-up stupidity will run out here in Van.

 
 
Comment by Uvaman
2008-02-17 12:39:55

This market is disgusting for first time home buyers.

 
Comment by darkmatter
2008-02-17 13:55:58

“Gase said the slack market won’t last forever. ‘There’s a huge demand beginning to build up here,’ he said. ‘You don’t really have to wait for the feeding frenzy. Have faith in our community. Don’t think about the short term.’”
just where can i find the pent-up demand meter?

who has a graph of that. the pent-up demand graph.

perhaps yun has a copy in his roll-up desk located in the corner of NAR hq.

 
Comment by Hazard
2008-02-17 16:46:48

“The slowdown didn’t deter Jill and Dan Hanken from agreeing to buy a home in Redmond Ridge East.”

“‘We felt like this was where we wanted to live and that was the house we wanted. We just didn’t want to risk it being sold,’ Jill Hanken said.”

When I read the above I though well maybe they’ll be OK in buying, althoughI don’t think there’s much risk involved (aside from paying the mortgage). But then in reading the following, NOPE they got took (so to speak).

“She said she also felt confident they’d be able to sell their current home.”

 
Comment by ReMax Vancouver
2008-02-20 09:26:36

Perfect article, it clearly explains the reasons of subprime crisis, its effects on the economy and possible solutions. Fortunately, the situation here in Canada is not as prevalent as it is in the United States. I agree that the new mortgage options are pushing prices up, however, we have to take into consideration the fact that the real estate prices are not going up anymore and they haven’t gone up as much as in the US over the last several years. As a Vancouver ReMax real estate agent I am aware of the declining number of buyers, but I believe that the situation will change.

 
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