February 18, 2008

In A Down Market, Cash Is King

The News Press reports from Florida. “Realtor Trae Zipperer is the agent for a Key West style home along a canal in the gated, Palm Isles subdivision off San Carlos Boulevard, near Fort Myers Beach, that has an asking price of $559,000. Zipperer said he handled the sale of a lot similar to the one occupied by the Palm Isles home for $425,000 about six weeks ago. At the market’s height, the asking price for the Palm Isles home probably would have been about $875,000.”

“Jerry Bodart, a broker in Bonita Springs, said prices, in general, decline as you head east. ‘Prices have come down,’ he said. ‘Some prices haven’t come down, on the Gulf Coast, for example, but others have come down maybe up to 25 percent.’”

“The amount of bang for the buck has risen sharply depending on location and the seller’s desire to make a deal, according Marc Lobdell, a broker in Fort Myers. ‘I would think that you’re probably looking at the same dollars buying about 40 percent more home than at the peak of our market in November of 2005,’ he said.”

“Lobdell said $549,900 can buy a 2,681-square-foot home in the Briarcliff area of south Fort Myers, that sits on a 2.5 acre parcel complete with a pond. The three-bedroom, three-bathroom house also has a home office, a loft, a two-car garage and has been completely updated, inside and out, he added.”

“He said the list price was $649,900 when the home went on the market roughly 280 days ago.”

The Herald Tribune from Florida. “A planned Hyatt beach resort…will be the first of its kind in the Sarasota area to be built as a so-called ‘fractional ownership’ property: part time-share, part condo, part hotel. The cost? Six weeks each year are yours for between $250,000 and $750,000, plus additional yearly fees.”

“‘Though it can be viewed by the consumer as an alternative to buying a condo, it’s really put together quite differently,’ said Larry Shulman, senior VP of Hyatt Vacation Ownership.”

“‘In a conventional condo project, there is a lot of investment angle to the purchasing, with people attempting to resell their units for a profit and who have no intention of actually living there,’ Shulman said. He said people buy fractional properties generally because they love the place and want to vacation there on a regular basis. ‘Rental income is incidental not fundamental, you could say.’”

“Coming out of the ground these days is not a small feat. A number of Sarasota condo projects are on ice, with several others circling the bowl. Part of the reason: Financing is extremely difficult to secure in the current environment.”

“When the project was first conceived during the boom, the white sands of Siesta Key seemed like the perfect place for upscale condominiums. Times were good — Sarasota condos were selling like they were going out of style. But when the bottom fell out of the market, everything changed.”

“‘It’s the kind of thing that works more as an emotional decision,’ said Sarasota commercial real estate broker Ian Black. ‘Do I get a great financial deal with fractional? Maybe not. But do I enjoy it and love coming here? That’s what it’s about.’”

The Palm Beach Post from Florida. “Like all legendary parties, the boom-time bash in Port St. Lucie raged on for too long. The carousing should have stopped by 2006, when hundreds of empty houses accumulated on city blocks. But builders continued building homes and buying overpriced land.”

“Now the city is doing its penance. The consequences are unmistakable: The median price of an existing single-family home in the metro area that includes Port St. Lucie has dropped for 20 consecutive months.”

“Jaime Gomez is feeling the pain. The 28-year-old mortgage broker was laid off from a national bank last year after home-loan business dried up. The one-bedroom Port St. Lucie condo he bought for $110,000 in 2004 is worth about 25 percent less now, he estimates. And a second home he owns with his mother and sister in western Port St. Lucie sits next to an empty foreclosure.”

“‘It’s a scary feeling having a home in this neighborhood, and especially in St. Lucie County,’ Gomez said.”

“The small builder Chateau Homes first cut staffing at its Bayshore model in April. In August, it closed. ‘We just had no traffic whatsoever,’ said owner John Grobelny, who is based in Lake Worth. ‘We were paying salespeople to sit there and not get any sales.’”

“He blames the dearth of buyers on a wild run-up in prices. When he started building in Port St. Lucie in 2001, his 1,800-square-foot model was going for $145,000, including the lot. By 2006, land prices climbed so much that the same package was almost $285,000.”

“Many of his subcontractors have retreated from the city, too. ‘They’ve gone on to the Carolinas or Georgia to find work,’ he said.”

“Others are returning to the service jobs they abandoned for construction work during the boom, said Bob Stevenson, owner of a gas station and Dairy Queen in Martin County. ‘Now all these guys that were making $25 (an hour), they’re back in the restaurants and hotels making $10, $11 an hour,’ Stevenson said.”

“Joan Stotz wrote the two biggest checks of her life in 2005 and 2006. The total amount: $200,000. The recipient: Island Shore Homes. The 73-year-old widow paid upfront because the builder told her family it would help speed construction, her son Joe Gannon recalled.”

“In 2006, a year after Island Shore started her house, work stopped. Stotz is among the buyers of about 35 homes that were left incomplete homes or saddled with contractors’ debt after financial problems at Island Shore led the builder to abandon work at lots scattered around Port St. Lucie. The builder is one of several in the city who have gone belly up since the housing market started its free-fall.”

“Island Shore’s model home on Bayshore Boulevard now sits empty, the mailbox at its curb smashed to pieces. ‘I don’t know how they can get away with what they did,’ Stotz said.”

“Last year, she took out a $153,000 home-equity loan on her old home to hire a former Island Shore partner to finish work on the house. The majority of her $1,300-a-month Social Security check goes toward loan payments, which run more than $900 a month. She hadn’t been expecting any payments on the house.”

“She avoids trips to the store, eating whatever she can from her pantry to save money. ‘I don’t know how I’m going to do it, really,’ she said. ‘It’s as scary as can be.’”

“Hers isn’t the only Island Shore home in the family. Her two sons, Gannon and Robert Stotz, also signed a contract in 2005. Together, they paid more than $300,000 for a five-bedroom model, plus the lot it would be built on, according to their records.”

“Unlike their mother’s, their home was largely completed - but they say they took out a $58,000 home-equity loan to pay off liens Island Shore owed on the home. ‘We’re really hurting. We’re borrowing money that we don’t have anymore,’ said Gannon, who is unemployed and looking for work.”

“Assistant State Attorney Lev Evans said more housing-related conflicts are showing up in his office. ‘With the downturn in the economy, we’re seeing a lot of these types of … complaints against contractors, developers, Realtors, escrow companies, everything concerned with the real estate industry,’ Evans said.”

“The bus tours that have motored across foreclosure-littered neighborhoods of California, Nevada and other slumping states are pulling into the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County.”

“‘We have been working a lot with foreclosure buyers, and we’re finding folks have similar desires: They all want to deal,’ said broker Andrea DiRico. A seat on her bus runs $20, with a box lunch. The firm hopes to offer tours every other week, branching out into neighboring areas including Martin County.”

“‘It’s a really unfortunate reality … but it also provides a tremendous opportunity,’ DiRico said.”

“If there’s an upside to this city’s real estate downturn, Tim and Fran Metzger have found it. In December the couple signed a contract to buy the 4,000-square-foot house in southern Port St. Lucie. The price: $314,000, about $100,000 less than what it would have gone for during the peak of the city’s boom.”

“‘I knew I had the upper hand, with the way the market was going down here,’ Tim said. ‘I didn’t realize I had such an upper hand.’”

“He and Fran bought their house from Melbourne-based Mercedes Homes, a builder that’s slashing prices on its inventory of unsold homes to get property off its books and cash onto its balance sheets. ‘Any business in a down market, the theory is cash is king. Pull all the cash back in you can,’ said Rob Smithwick, Treasure Coast division president for Mercedes Homes.”

“Port St. Lucie as a whole also is positioning for survival. Sixty percent to 70 percent of the builders working in Port St. Lucie during the housing boom have gone, estimated Don Santos, spokesman for the Treasure Coast Builders Association.”

“The construction industry — once the city’s bread and butter — is not flush enough now to sustain restaurants, car dealerships and other service businesses.”

The Ledger Enquirer from Georgia. “Fewer homes were sold in the Columbus and Phenix City housing markets in 2007, and it took longer to find buyers for those dwellings that did sell.”

“National media coverage has had an impact, said Sandi Green, president of the Greater Columbus Board of Realtors. It has generated fear, prompting many prospective homebuyers to sit tight.”

“‘We are not really losing value in our market here,’ Green said. ‘There’s such an abundance of inventory just because people got frightened of the national news, and Columbus is not affected by the national market. We did appreciate at a more normal rate.’”

“It definitely is a buyer’s market, said Rodney Niles, president of the Phenix City Board of Realtors. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, he said. Niles believes the real estate sector is actually returning to normal and will require agents to work harder and smarter aslike they once did.”

“‘In essence, it’s going back to the way that it should be, meaning it’s no longer put a sign in the yard, get an offer and sell the home,’ he said. ‘Real estate people are having to market their product and that’s what we’re supposed to be doing.’”

“Columbus real estate agent Guerry Clegg has experienced the highs and lows of the last five years. Prior to the national housing downturn, he recalls how easy it was to make a commission off a home sale.”

“‘I had buyers paying more than I was comfortable with them paying, but I knew if they didn’t pay it, they wouldn’t get the house,’ said Clegg. ‘What do you do? Because if they want the house bad enough, I can’t show you any data that says it’s worth it. But the fact that you’re going to have four or five people lined up to buy it says that it is worth it.’”

The Post & Courier from South Carolina. “Rising foreclosures across the country have put government-run auctions of distressed properties in the spotlight, drawing new faces to the sales held at the Charleston County courthouse twice a month.”

“But the twist is, few people attending these events are actually pulling out their checkbooks. The properties cycling through the foreclosure process lately are now viewed as overvalued, given the impact that the slowing real estate market has had on prices.”

“A condominium in the Seaside Farms development in Mount Pleasant came up for auction Jan. 8. Court documents show that the borrower owed at least $264,541.87, but the lender lowered its opening offer to $209,000.”

“A clerk called off the dollar amount and paused, waiting for bids. The investors wouldn’t bite. Many knew that comparable condos at the Seaside Farms complex sold last year at a median price of $220,000, leaving little opportunity for them to squeeze a profit out of the distressed unit.”

“The clerk looked up, scanning the group of people to see if there was any interest. The crowd was silent. She looked back down, called off the bidding price twice more and, with no takers, the property went back to the lender.”

From Statesville.com in North Carolina. “Christie Case fell in love with the two-story house on Bell Farm Road the moment she laid eyes on it. She saw potential in the unfinished modular home and it seemed like it was the perfect solution since the house she and her boyfriend, Brandon Stephens, rented went into foreclosure, forcing the couple to find a new home.”

“Now, the couple is struggling to make their monthly $1,755 mortgage payments and avoid foreclosure themselves.”

“‘A $1,000 payment would be great,’ Case said. ‘We got to fix something. If we keep going at this rate, we are going to be able to buy two of these houses.’”

“Stephens and Case admitted they had less than ideal credit when they decided to buy the house. Stephens wasn’t required to produce any documentation when he received a mortgage for more than $166,000 with a 12-percent interest rate through the seller, J.M. Workman and Co. in Davidson.”

“J.M Workman picked up the $10,000 in closing costs and supplemented the couple’s first six months of mortgage payments.”

“J.M Workman salesman Jon Dixon, who helped the couple secure the loan, said Stephens’ loan did not require any documentation, such as proof of income. J.M. Workman only helped to secure two of these loans to Dixon’s knowledge. ‘They were eliminated because of the number of foreclosures,’ he explained.”

“Lenders and investors haven’t left the arena unscathed either. As a result of the foreclosures, many lenders have gone out of business. ‘I had 20 lenders available to me at one point,’ said Danny Turner, owner of Turner Mortgage Brokerage Inc. ‘I notice half of those have gone by the wayside.’”

“Stan Suther, a broker with Century 21 Hecht Realty, said lenders are partially to blame for the nation’s mortgage crisis. ‘The fundamental problem it appears to me was the lenders were willing to back people who were not as credit worthy as they needed to be,’ he said.”




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105 Comments »

Comment by arroyogrande
2008-02-18 07:48:56

“In A Down Market, Cash Is King”

You’d better believe it baby.

And, might I add, It’s Good To Be The King.

Comment by sohonyc
2008-02-18 08:29:04

“In A Down Market, Cash Is King”

But which currency? Because the USD sure ain’t “King”.

Comment by Best Wishes
2008-02-18 15:18:25

USD is still king if you live in the US. If I decide to buy a distressed property here in the US with my USD, it sure does make it king. Cash will always be king.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2008-02-18 09:03:45

..and Cash and a Clear Title is the Fruit of the Gods :)

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-18 07:51:10

‘By opening the resort to a wide spectrum of rentals during its initial years, the money coming in will help the offset the cost of the unsold inventory. But at the same time, the aura of exclusivity could be diminished in the eyes of potential buyers.’

What the heck is the Hyatt trying to do here? Talk about being astride two horses. Make em condos or hotels, but $250k and up for a hotel room?

Also, it sure seems like there are a lot of FB stories with people in their 70’s these days.

Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:04:00

“A planned Hyatt beach resort…will be the first of its kind in the Sarasota area to be built as a so-called ‘fractional ownership’ property: part time-share, part condo, part hotel. The cost? Six weeks each year are yours for between $250,000 and $750,000, plus additional yearly fees.”

I about messed myself when I read that. Six weeks for hundreds of thousands of dollars, HOLD ME BACK! LMAO! It’s a time share! It’s a condo! NO, it’s SUPER-DUMP, a FRACTURED ownership resort!

But hey, Sarasota is SPECIAL, so people will pay it, right?

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 08:28:10

You can “own” one of those for the same price as a 6 week timeshare. My dad almost spent $15k before the bubble. $700k is a joke!

 
Comment by Tim
2008-02-18 08:28:31

I dont get this whole condotel concept. As least the larger housing ponzi scheme was somewhat opaque. This one is as clear as glass. Those that buy these things are the ones for which sympathy would be wasted on.

Comment by reuven
2008-02-18 09:21:27

This Pyramid only has two levels! You’ll never find a greater fool to buy your condotel-fractional-share for more than you paid.

A traditional time-share rarely makes sense, unless you can guarantee that you would have vacationed there anyway once a week for the next 25 years or so! This is a tiny percentage of people.

A Condotel makes absolutely no sense. There’s no way anyone will come out ahead.

And despite how he spun it for that interview, these things are pitched in high-pressure sales rooms to naive people as great investments with E-Z financing

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Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 12:32:51

So, say you really could promise yourself you’d vacation there for 25 straight years… if your children haven’t disowned you from boredom before then… Sea levels going to be rising significantly in that time-frame, that is, assuming a gulf hurricane doesn’t take care of it first.

 
Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-02-18 14:41:53

I’m sure these places are also the worst style of HOA / condo associations. They can raise the fees at any time - without letting you out of your obligation to those fees.

 
 
 
Comment by sohonyc
2008-02-18 08:32:50

That’s an average total price of $4.3 million per condo.

Good luck with that.

Comment by Jingle
2008-02-18 12:08:32

Well, at $100/sf, if you get a 43,000 square foot condo, that seems like a pretty good deal….

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Comment by Will
2008-02-18 08:38:42

Without knowing the details of “the additional yearly fees” the back of my envelope suggests that this will work out to about $15,000 per week. That is a lot of white sand and Big Olaf ice cream, but it is 6 weeks of high season, I suppose.

Don’t these developers ever price really nice hotels? Good grief, you spend six weeks in the Seychelles or Bora Bora for less than that.

Comment by Tim
2008-02-18 08:47:44

If you are good at finding bargains are the internet, you can find luxurious accomodations in the most beautiful places in the world for $3,000 a week. Airfair included.

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Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-18 15:44:23

My BIL is COO for a construction mgmt company on a lot of these condotels around the world. I asked him what in the world could possibly justify someone paying the outrageous fees on a fractional rental vs. simply renting a hotel room. His response? They’re not making anymore beachfront property.

 
Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 16:35:41

Yeah, they are.
http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/current/sea_level_rise.html

It’s just gonna be a little ways inland.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:48:19

‘Some prices haven’t come down, on the Gulf Coast, for example,”

Good point, Will. The Seychelles are gorgeous, unlike the Florida Gulf. I prefer living in West Central Florida as opposed to the East Coast, but sometimes I really miss some of the East Coast beaches. For the most part, the Gulf is like a huge toilet.

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Comment by Scott
2008-02-18 12:07:49

But it isn’t for six weeks of high season. If it’s a fractional interest of 6 weeks, that means that there are 7 other “owners.” Don’t you think they’ll want to get some time during high season, too?

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Comment by Dutch_renter
2008-02-18 09:43:14

Too funny !

 
Comment by Robert-in-Florida
2008-02-18 09:52:34

“But hey, Sarasota is SPECIAL, so people will pay it, right?”
Like the short bus!

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-02-18 10:49:15

But hey, Sarasota is SPECIAL, so people will pay it, right?

And they are running out of land, buy now or forever be priced out, prices will never drop, thousands of people are moving to Florida each day, All of the boomers are moving to Florida, now is not a good time to buy, it’s a great time to buy!

The Fuzzy Bear reply to the abovecheerleading statements:

B.S.!

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2008-02-18 08:16:02

“Also, it sure seems like there are a lot of FB stories with people in their 70’s these days.”

I noticed that too. You’d think those who’d lived this long would have a little more sense, especially after growing up in the post Great Depression years.
So many people have absolutely no fear of going into debt.

Comment by reuven
2008-02-18 09:24:51

I’ve noticed that too. You got to wonder how a senior who has enough money coming in to cover her expenses, and a suitable place to live, could be overcome by greed in her 70s and be willing to gamble away the Social Security check on some crazy investment. Even if it did pay off, so what? You’re already set! Start enjoying yourself. Figure out how to have some nice low-cost vacations within a few hundred miles of home, and have some fun.

Comment by MontanaAnna
2008-02-18 09:35:59

Lots of older people entertain themselves by shopping and buying lots of stuff. Discovering HELOC probably seemed like manna from heaven.

I’m going to have to watch hubby because he’s like that - buy, buy, buy - and he’s retiring next year. I’m drawing a bright line around home eq.

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Comment by Scott
2008-02-18 12:10:49

There was a study recently (wish I had the link) that did brain scans on people in a variety of ages while they were asked to evaluate various economic scenarios. The middle aged peoples’ brains showed the most activity in the regions of the brain associated with evaluating risk. Younger people, less so. And in elderly people, there was the least amount of activity in that region.

Now, whether that means that elderly people judge less risk because of changes to the brain, or if they are old and realize that you can’t take any money with you, is up for debate.

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Comment by AnnScott
2008-02-18 09:51:41

“You’d think those who’d lived this long would have a little more sense, especially after growing up in the post Great Depression years.”

Except they DIDN’T grow up during the Depression or, at most were so very very young they had no idead about what was going on. A 75 year old was born in 1933. They were only 7-8 years old when WWII started.

My father-in-law who was a young adult during the Depression (born 1910) slipped more than a few cogs on money management by the time he hit 80. After my MIL died, he spent at least $25,000 a year on junk - plant-of-the-month, book-of-the-month etc. He would buy the stuff, open the box to see what it was, clse the box back up and write the date received and the check number and amount on it, and then he stacked the boxes of this stuff up in an used room. When we finally took control, the stack of these small boxes was 12 feet long, 5 feet deep and 4 feet high! He had kept the door closed and the room locked so we wouldnt see it.

Could have spent a lot more tha $25K a year but those are the receipts we could find.

Comment by combotechie
2008-02-18 10:18:50

One didn’t have to grow up during the Depression to feel its effects; There were enough people around who DID grow up in these dark years that acted as role models for the younger set.
It’s understandable to me why so many young people fall into the debt trap; they have no sense of history. But regarding the old folks, their sense of history of the GD should be inbedded deeply into their souls.

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Comment by neon kitty lips
2008-02-18 11:33:52

My mom is now 93, very much remembers the tough years. She shops relentlessly out of catalogs (we shudder when she says ‘I have something for you’), but it’s her entertainment and she usually buys stuff less than $5.00. The thrift shops love her because most of the stuff she gives to me, my sister, and our kids, ends up on their shelves. she considers this part of her living expenses. We control the big bucks.

 
 
 
 
Comment by James
2008-02-18 08:45:58

Ben,

You can’t take it with you.

Not sure you can even enjoy it much in your 80s.

So, free money to geezers was probably a bad idea.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-18 09:27:02

Sad to say, there are geezers who can’t handle free money. This is precisely what’s going on with a longtime friend. She took out a reverse mortgage, and went on one of the most baffling spending sprees I have ever seen. To put it politely, she is losing it, and, unfortunately, she’s not getting it back.

By that, I mean her mental faculties and her money.

Comment by aNYCdj
2008-02-18 09:31:00

I guess she HATES her kids and grandkids and wants to leave them NOTHING!

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Comment by BottomFisher
2008-02-18 13:12:32

Where do I get in line?

joking off

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:08:15

“Lobdell said $549,900 can buy a 2,681-square-foot home in the Briarcliff area of south Fort Myers, that sits on a 2.5 acre parcel complete with a pond.”

Omigod, A POND! A genuwhine mosquito breeder/West Nile incubator, surely that’s worth half a mil in one of the most godforsaken parts of Florida, where NOTHING is happening.

Comment by Michael Fink
2008-02-18 08:22:59

Agreed Palmy; I wouldn’t touch a home in Ft. Myers for that kind of price. 2600 sq/ft, maybe 200K. MAYBE. That’s assuming that the pond is really nice, and west nile free. :0

Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:34:26

A married couple I know had a house around here they purchased back in 1999 with five acres and a pond for $110,000. Nothing fancy as far as the house went and the area was a little spotty, but a nice enough piece of property. But lemme tellya about that “pond”. So muddy you couldn’t see an inch past the surface. The wife wades in one day and brings up a whole bunch of mutant catfish looking type bottom feeders (these were not real catfish, but small creatures that looked like a cross between a lizard and a catfish). A gator eventually took up permanent residence. There was another pond on the property that disappeared when the weather was dry, most of the time it was covered with yellow-green scum.

Comment by bluprint
2008-02-18 10:07:48

My wife’s grandfather was relating a hunting story he heard lately. There have been some alligators come into some local water ways. Mostly they aren’t very prevalent but we have a few around here.

Anyway, this past deer season, a guy he knows was hunting on someone else’s property (with permission), shot a deer and the deer ran into a pond and died. So the guy had to wade into the pond to get the (bloody) deer. While he was in the pond something bumped his leg, he thought it was a large catfish or something and didn’t give it much thought.

Later, he was telling the farmer who owned the property what happened, and farmer asked him if he saw the alligator that has been living in the pond…

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Comment by aqius
2008-02-18 11:00:06

when yer cats start disappeaing is a good sign a gator is nearby. small dogs also. the seniors in the retirement parks get all clumped up on their tricycles & geejaw about it until a trapper is called. then peace is restored, and the only nuisance is that young whippersnapper w/the leafblower on weds.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2008-02-18 13:53:56

There was one such incident in Tampa just last week. A dog owner — it was one of the toy dog breeds — was letting her pet wander around Al Lopez Park unleashed. The dog got too close to a pond, whereupon a five-foot alligator, sensing the approach of prey, promptly emerged and killed it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 08:30:49

You could use that pond for a fish farm. What mosquitos? They are fish food!

Comment by Tim
2008-02-18 08:33:58

I remember driving to Florida to see my gf 5 years ago. Once you hit the florida line I had to stop at a gas station every 30 miles to scrape the bugs off my windshield just to see where I was going. Took me weeks to get the baked on decaying bodies off the car once I got back to Atlanta.

Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:39:31

“Once you hit the florida line I had to stop at a gas station every 30 miles to scrape the bugs off my windshield just to see where I was going.”

Those are the “love bugs”, a real treat. Rumor has it they are some sort of Florida university system lab experiment that got out of control. They’re big, fat nasty bugs that make a nice juicy splat on the windshield and headlights.

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Comment by Tim
2008-02-18 08:41:52

I think thats what some called them. We had a different name.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 08:47:11

Be glad they aren’t killer bees!

Love bugs are harmless to humans. I havent seen one in years.

 
Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-02-18 09:01:47

“Rumor has it they are some sort of Florida university system lab experiment…”

It’s a myth!

http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/IN694

“Lovebug Myths
“MYTH: Lovebugs escaped after University of Florida researchers brought them into Florida. Lovebugs are not native to most of the southern United States (Hardy 1945). According to Buschman (1976), since 1940 P. nearctica has extended its range from Mississippi and Louisiana across the Gulf States, reaching Florida in 1949. In the late 1960s, it became established entirely across north Florida. During the 1970s explosive populations occurred progressively southward nearly to the end of peninsular Florida and northward into South Carolina. Its movement may have been accelerated by prevailing winds, vehicle traffic, sod transport, increased habitat along highways and expansion of pastures but not by UF researchers.

“MYTH: University of Florida researchers genetically engineered lovebugs to kill mosquitoes. Lovebugs are small, slow herbivorous insects that feed on the pollen and nectar found in flowers. Thus, they lack the mandibles (jaws), grasping legs, speed and other characteristics of predaceous insects, such as dragonflies. Lovebugs are active during the day, whereas most mosquitoes are crepuscular (active at twilight) or nocturnal, and they are only adults for a few weeks each year. For these and many other reasons, the lovebug would be a poor candidate to genetically engineer as a mosquito predator, even if it were possible.”

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 09:27:47

“It’s a myth!”

Well, so says the University of Florida, which is where the experiment is supposed to have gone awry. Many “experiments” in Florida have gone wrong, like the importation of the Brazilian pepper (euphemistically called the Florida Holly) and the water hyacinth. Not to mention the attempts to drain the Everglades and to re-route the Kissimmee river.

 
Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-02-18 10:07:17

I am not finding evidence that the “gator nation” was behind the introduction of water hyacinths or Brazilian pepper. Do you have sources on either?

http://www.se-eppc.org/manual/EICR.html
“Water hyacinth is thought to be native to the Amazon River basin of South America. It was introduced to the United States in 1884 at the Cotton States Exposition in New Orleans, Louisiana. It spread across the southeastern U. S. and was identified in Florida in 1895. It was reported to be in California in 1904.”

Brazilian Pepper:
http://everglades.fiu.edu/fiu/idh4007/digirolamo3.html

http://www.fleppc.org/Manage_Plans/schinus.pdf

“Morton (1979) suggested that this plant was
first introduced at the turn of the century by the Plant
Introduction Service. However, Brazilian pepper was
advertised in seed catalogs as early as 1832, over 60
years beforehand, in New York (Mack, 1991).

“Although specific introduction points are
not clear, the popularization of Brazilian pepper
in Florida can be attributed to plant enthusiast
Dr. George Stone (Morton, 1978). In 1926, while
residing in Punta Gorda on the west coast of
Florida, he reportedly raised hundreds of plants.
These seedlings were then distributed among his
friends and many were planted along city streets
(Morton, 1978).”

 
Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-02-18 10:31:38

Every source I can find says the army corps of engineers (the same folks who made the nifty sand and clay levees in New Orleans) re-routed the Kissimmee and drained the Everglades at the behest of the federal govt. for reasons having everything to do with sugar production and vacation fairyland development and nothing to do with sciencey experiments to “improve” nature. UF would probably have jumped at the chance to run the show if it had been offered the opportunity, but it appears it was not offered the opportunity. The university appears to have been cut out of that deal entirely, and it’s not hard to understand why: the corps of engineers is more ruinous and gargantuan than any university could ever hope to be, and is therefore a more obvious choice if you’re deciding what entity can more completely and permanently destroy a natural area that acts as lungs and liver for a giant section of the southeastern US.

If you don’t believe me that the corps really blows, maybe you’ll believe Ned Flanders:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harry-shearer/nice-to-know-innovation-i_b_67803.html

 
 
 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-02-18 11:01:28

“Lobdell said $549,900 can buy a 2,681-square-foot home in the Briarcliff area of south Fort Myers,

In the fall of 2010, you can by this property for $349,000.

 
Comment by peverilj
2008-02-18 20:07:52

And don’t forget the alligators…I’d be way too worried about what might be living in that pond to take much pleasure in being close to it!

 
Comment by SpacecoastFLRenter
2008-02-18 22:24:09

the real danger of a pond is the amoeba. When water temp gets above 80 the single cell organism grows wildly and can invade –usually through the nose and is fatal. I would take a few skeeter bites over amoebic meningitis anyday, even a gator bite would be an improovement.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2008-02-18 08:08:49

If I had to guess, I’d say that the widow Stotz was talked into this “great idea” by her two boys. Do we have anyone here who can give an on-the-ground report from Port St. Lucie?

Comment by Kim
2008-02-18 09:54:18

If they had put the deposits in escrow instead of handing it right over to the builder, none of them would be in this situation.

Blows my tiny mind.

Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 12:51:47

The 73-year-old widow paid upfront because the builder told her family it would help speed construction…

The builder probably jumped with relieved glee and made payroll that week with her check(s). And all legal, apparently, to rip people off this way because they aren’t ever seeing their money again and the sheriff sure as heck wouldn’t care. Escrow is the only way. People need to be educated across the board about real estate, amazing to make these kinds of mistakes. If this mess results in any good, it will be that.

 
 
Comment by SKB
2008-02-18 12:06:17

Sure, Every second home is for sale or in foreclosure.
Strip malls are dead, the only people I saw were the “fake” people statues all over the place….very creepy.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-02-18 08:10:31

$250k to $750k plus “annual fees” to buy six weeks on Siesta Key each year? You know the weeks during peak season (Feb and Mar) will be at the top of the range. You can rent something really, really nice on the beach for $20K for those two months. Assuming $150K down, what’s the monthly nut for a $600K condo mortgage, including taxes and insurance? Then multiply that times 12. Without doing the math, I know it’s gonna be WAY more than $20K.

Their strategy has to be to sell the suckers on the potential “investment” and “appreciation.”

Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:27:23

Bill, this sounds like absolute gasbag desperation to me. You’re right about 20K rent on the beach during peak season and in some cases, even less. I think developers have gone into a stage of delusion en masse.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-02-18 08:36:29

Isn’t it time for the MSM to weigh in on the question about WTF banks and builders are thinking? They need to call these idiots out in a public forum and talk about realistic pricing/affordability issues.
These prices make NO SENSE to anyone. NO ONE is going to fall for this crap any longer! Get realistic or go away already!
Are there any bankers on this blog???
WTF are the bankers thinking taking back all these houses and refusing to get realistic with pricing on selling them??? Holding them off the market doesn’t make them more valuable. Death by a thousand cuts isn’t anymore pleasant than just getting the damn pricing down by 60-80% all at once, is it?

These idiots just need to be put out of business, all of them, banks included. They are too frigging stupid to continue to exist in the business world.

Comment by vReal
2008-02-18 09:24:17

All of us definitely want the immediate mark-down in price. Makes you wonder if the banks are trying to spread this thing out over many months to lessen the impact while praying the whole time for a miracle turnaround.

Comment by Carbonator
2008-02-18 16:24:38

vReal is correct - the banksters are trying to spread the losses out as far as they can, because a “potential writedown allowance” is far more acceptable to shareholders than a “LOSS”.

They don’t really want to crystallise their losses just yet, in the vain hope of some sort of market improvement - once one bank takes the plunge to liquidate their portfolio of failed investments, watch out for the waterfall!

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Comment by 45north
2008-02-18 20:14:04

how about a Hail Mary java script - it pops up and prints out the Rosary over and over again. Market to bankers, oh yeah and bond insurers.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:10:53

‘We just had no traffic whatsoever,’ said owner John Grobelny, who is based in Lake Worth. ‘We were paying salespeople to sit there and not get any sales.’”

I thought the salespeople worked on commission? Yep, looks like the new business model for developments will be the used car lot business.

Comment by aNYCdj
2008-02-18 08:24:59

Or they could be on a DRAW vs Commissions…so technically the employer can sue the sales person for the money back…

But then the salesperson can use the defense we had no business to generate any commisions to pay back the draw.

 
 
Comment by Dinasmom
2008-02-18 08:14:11

“Port St. Lucie as a whole also is positioning for survival. Sixty percent to 70 percent of the builders working in Port St. Lucie during the housing boom have gone, estimated Don Santos, spokesman for the Treasure Coast Builders Association.”

Where do the constuction folks go??? Locally, I know that people who do remodeling and renovation are feeling the pinch and keeping only their long-term people, but what happens to crews that work for, say, Newmark and the big builders. What is happening to these folks? Anyone know?

Comment by Dave of the North
2008-02-18 10:27:35

Back to Mexico? Central America? Caribbean?

 
 
Comment by Reluctant Relocator
2008-02-18 08:15:34

$166k for a modular home??? In Statesville? Idiots.

“Case and Stephens are among the growing number of homeowners in Iredell County and across country who are coming to terms with the heartache of losing their small piece of the American dream.”

As much as the NAR would like us to believe, that antiquated notion of home ownership in the 1950s is long gone. Yes, renting can be a pain in the ass at times but where I live in DC I’d be paying 50-100% more to own the same priced unit I’m renting. Just not a wise financial move to buy something that expensive.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 08:37:57

Let me share. When I was returning to WPB from Gainesville, we stopped along the way in a mobile park as I was curious how much the asking price was. It was around $80k(don’t remember exactly) for a 3/2 mobile home on land(not sure if you “own” it or pay monthly lot fees) in some small town in central FL. What a ripoff! I can get a real house and own the land for half that price up north.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-02-18 13:21:28

There is a second reason that home ownership in that traditional sense is dead.

In the modern economy, the benefits accrue to those who are not tied down either at a particular job or geography.

I have routinely noticed the sh*ttiest assignments being given to people who are tied down (bought a house, have a kid, etc.) They have no chance of moving upward. They will be the corporation’s b*tches forever.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-18 08:20:44

(For econogeeks in the virtual room):

Consider a regression model

Y = F(b0 + b1 X),

where Y = discount percentage off market price in a down market, X is the downpayment percentage (which might be anywhere from 0 to 100) and F is a c.d.f. I am not sure what other variables might belong in the RHS of this model (home price, measures of the buyer’s creditworthiness, etc), but I am curious about the effect of X on the percentage discount one can negotiate.

Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-02-18 08:31:28

c.d.f. = cumulative distribution function?

Are you saying that a down payment greater than some market norm will induce a seller to accept a lower price because it increases the probability the sale will close?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-18 08:56:24

c.d.f. = cumulative distribution function (e.g. logistic or standard normal) — this has the effect of limiting the predicted discount to the range between 0 and 100 pct.

I don’t think my question makes sense the way I stated it above (pre-coffee thinking is always dangerous!). The question is a bit hard for me to frame off the top of my head, but in general I am wondering about the advantage to the buyer of using a relatively larger downpayment in a down market. The real advantage may be that buyers with cash savings may constitute a much larger share of the qualified buyer pool going forward than they were in 2005 and before. If you don’t have enough savings to make a “100 pct downpayment,” then you likely at least need enough down to convince a lender to loan you the rest of the purchase price in a falling price market.

The buyer basically faces two decisions with implied best response functions from the other side of the deal:

1) How much of a downpayment do I make? (Here the best response function from the lending side defines the interest rate and other terms of the loan — e.g., a larger downpayment may enable the buyer to get a more attractive interest rate);

2) How much do I offer on the house I want to buy? (Too low of an offer may trigger an immediate rejection, if the seller feels insulted; too high of an offer may result in the buyer catching a falling knife.)

With the answers to the above questions in hand, a buyer must additionally consider the tradeoff between “investing” more cash in a real estate purchase as opposed to buying gold, platinum, foreign currency, stocks, bonds, bank deposits, etc against the backdrop of a conundrum.

All told, I don’t think this is a simple question to address.

Comment by KC
2008-02-18 09:55:03

I agree. It’s not an easy answer. My husband and I in our 60s and 50’s so we fall into that baby boomers with cash scenario. On the last few homes we paid cash. On one we carried a mortgage, but got sick of it so we paid it off. I can’t say we lost or gained doing that other than it was one less thing to think about. The truth is, unless a person is lucky, they will have less income when they retire, not more. Personally, I don’t want to have to think about paying a mortgage when I’m 80.
Also, we were convinced to pay off the mortgage after seeing a 30 year amortization schedule. If you want to see how much a house really costs in the long run, that’s the place to look.
As far as how much to offer, we have never offered full price on a home. We set an amount that we feel is a reasonable offer and that’s that. If the seller doesn’t want to sell we move on to the next house. If the market is in a bubble, we wait for the bubble to deflate. There were times when we probably paid too much. Other times we got a deal.
That method has worked well for us for the past 30 years. Not sure about other boomers.

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Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 13:05:45

I think it depends heavily on what you think inflation is going to do as well. Say you have 100k in savings and a paid-off house. You stick the money in the bank and just pay your taxes. We’re staring at a knife-edge economic situation right now. Recessionary pressure and inflationary pressure (from oil prices and bad ethanol policy). If you think recession is going to win, then you are set, buy treasuries and sleep well at night. If you think we are facing 70s level inflation, you may have been better off taking the savings and buying a 300k house with it taking on a fixed-rate mortgage at 6% that would devalue rapidly (pay itself off) with inflation running 20%/year.

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Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 13:09:35

Okay, it’s early here… What I meant to say is: I think you need to include the cost of money in your equation.

 
Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-02-18 18:09:06

I think it depends heavily on what you think inflation is going to do as well.

Upping the Inflation Dosage

http://tinyurl.com/yowcmx

Peter Schiff is brilliant! I’m a baseball fan and a fanatic about economics.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-18 18:44:49

“I think you need to include the cost of money in your equation.”

Agreed. That, as well as expectations for future housing price appreciation (or depreciation). There is a tradeoff between the degree of leverage in a home purchase transaction (which gets quite high at downpayments less than 20 pct) versus the opportunity cost of portfolio diversification (at 100 pct down = all cash, one both limits the amount of house you can purchase / quality of life factors plus reduces portfolio diversification away from whatever you would have done with the share of your assets which do not go towards the home purchase).

 
 
 
 
Comment by sohonyc
2008-02-18 08:35:10

Given that X is the “bird in hand” (ie: zero risk) part of the equation — I imagine it’s got a pretty profound effect.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-18 08:41:22

OK, it’s raining, I’ll play. This is a concave curve going from the points (0,0) to (y*,100) where dy/dx is positive to some point x* at which point it becomes zero (i.e. the curve becomes a horizontal line). It may even begin decreasing after some large down payment, such as x=50. d(2)y/dx(2) is uniformly negative up to the point x*.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-18 19:40:58

“(0,0) to (y*,100)”

Did you mean (x*,100)?

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:21:07

Forgot to mention, in the local market observations thread over the weekend, that there is a very large commercial project going up here in the Ruskin/Apollo Beach area. Called the “South Shore Business Center” or some such silly-ass thing. Warehouse and office space. As a result, one of my favorite back road cut-throughs between Ruskin and Apollo Beach is blocked to through traffic, doncha know. It just seems to go on and on, they’re building this huge business center at a time when developments sit half-built and no one is buying. Not to mention they’ve destroyed some perfectly decent farmland in the process. For what? So a big commercial development can fail? Also I heard the MiraBay development is in deep doo-doo, as a result of all the infestors that purchased there. Heard this from a mortgage broker.

Comment by aNYCdj
2008-02-18 09:36:56

http://www.tampa4u.com/homes/mirabay_homes.html

Go to the satellite view and look at all the empty lots!

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 08:44:36

“Jaime Gomez is feeling the pain. The 28-year-old mortgage broker was laid off from a national bank last year after home-loan business dried up. The one-bedroom Port St. Lucie condo he bought for $110,000 in 2004 is worth about 25 percent less now, he estimates. And a second home he owns with his mother and sister in western Port St. Lucie sits next to an empty foreclosure.”

$110k for a 1/1 condo is a huge ripoff! That thing will be worth like $35k at the bottom. You can get a such condo for $20k to $50k in Texas depending on the neighboorhood and building size. This should give you an idea where condo values will be elsewhere. No excuses on the “land” as each condo occupies very little of it.

 
Comment by DC in LBV
2008-02-18 08:54:21

“Sarasota condos were selling like they were going out of style. ”
—————

I’d say there was no “going” about it now.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-02-18 08:54:59

“Assistant State Attorney Lev Evans said more housing-related conflicts are showing up in his office. ‘With the downturn in the economy, we’re seeing a lot of these types of … complaints against contractors, developers, Realtors, escrow companies, everything concerned with the real estate industry,’ Evans said.”

Wotta complete mess. The Attorney General of Florida, Bill McCollum, has been on the news recently complaining that the budget cuts are going to hurt the ability of his office to handle all of this. Actually, it was a veiled threat, IMHO. Oooh, I’m scared. He wasn’t doing that great of a job to begin with. I doubt if budget cuts are going to make much of a difference.

 
Comment by flatffplan
2008-02-18 09:19:06

ome than at the peak of our market in November of 2005,’ he said.”
WTF ?
got my mom to finally sell in dec 05 and it was way past peak

 
Comment by kuros
2008-02-18 09:42:15

i grew up in the Sarasota area and left to go to a real college up north in 1978 I returned in 1998 and built a nice modest home and just recently sold it. I will now rent in Sarasota and also live part time in the midwest,I am angry and sad to what has be done to Sarasota. The region is scared with ugly buildings and vacant lots. The condo buildings are empty. Do you think the owners of those empty units keep them at a comfy 71 degrees? I doubt it. And with the humid hot weather we have here can you imagine an entire building baking in 95 degree humid heat? It wont be pretty. And that is only one concern I have not even touched on the unemployed, the traffic, et-cetra But hey the whole foods is packed with dolled up cool people and their garage looks like a foreign luxury car lot.
And than there is this:
http://www.cityplacesarasota.com/

Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-18 10:01:00

“it is no surprise this lively city has become one of the most popular living destinations in the country”

Who writes this provincial tripe? With Sarasota population being all of 52,000 (2000 census), how would you refer to those other 500 or 1000 larger U.S. cities in terms of “living popularity”?

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2008-02-18 09:43:37

if time shares resell for 30-40 cents on the dollar (tops)
what are these worth in resale mode ?

 
Comment by Quirk
2008-02-18 10:05:16

It’s “Catch a Falling Knife” time in Port St. Lucie.

$310,000???? Insane. Nothing in PSL is worth more than $150,000 TOPS.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 10:51:05

Really? What about those million dollar mansions? I did tell my parents that I predict youll be able to get a nice 4/2/2 ~1800 sf house for $99,900 in PSL in a few years. Comments.

Comment by Quirk
2008-02-18 11:31:06

Yeah, maybe. But how many illegals and penniless scum will be living on your $99,900 block?

Before you get all flighty about moving to PSL or anywhere else “cheap” in Florida you need to stop and think about what you’re getting yourself into.

Your home isn’t going to be cheap simply because someone else’s is expensive. And don’t believe for a second that someone with a bloated mortgage is just going to loyally pay his fair share while you slip into a 4/2/2 for pennies on the dollar. The day you sign is the day he either sells or forecloses. Then it’s pot luck - grow houses in PSL are the new “cash cow” industry in town. And I venture to say that the rest of the Treasure Coast will soon return to a similarly “agrarian” economy, if ya know what I mean!

So before you get all wide-eyed and jumpy about the busted bubble being a boon, remember that not only will YOU get what you pay for, but so will EVERYONE ELSE!

There will be some super slums in So Flo before this whole mess is over.

Comment by Emmi
2008-02-18 22:43:34

Hey, those of us living on a 99,000 block are mildly insulted. You have to clarify… “newly” 99,000 block. Ours has been the same for 30 years, thank you. We call it stability.

And how do you avoid paying property taxes? Or was that snark? Our taxes are in our mortgage payment. The city takes over the house, they no get payee.

Or do you mean they get paid under the table? If you mean that, you need to read up a bit more. Getting paid under the table, means getting screwed royally on wages. Many get paid above-board with bad ss#, a practice being cracked down on… why I’m not sure, in 2006 the social security adminstration took in 2billion (with a b) in contributions to bad account numbers. That money gets put into the general pool, as it cannot be collected on. Giving illegal aliens real soc #s is a bad idea if you are against illegals, it means that on some future date when they are naturalized, they could actually collect on that money put in for them… or didn’t you think of that?

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Comment by Quirk
2008-02-18 11:38:35

Yeah, but any illegal can afford $100,000 for a home these days ’cause they don’t pay taxes.

Hope your parents know Spanish for “keep your kids off my lawn”.

 
 
Comment by SKB
2008-02-18 12:03:15

The Metzgers get to reap the benefits.

“It’s my wife’s dream house,” Tim said. “She couldn’t be happier.”

For now :)

Suckers

Comment by Lesser Fool
2008-02-18 16:38:17

Soon the house he “caught” will be known as Metzgersmesser ..

 
 
Comment by SKB
2008-02-18 12:08:09

“It’s my wife’s dream house,” Tim said. “She couldn’t be happier.”

For now.

Suckers.

 
 
Comment by michael
2008-02-18 11:03:56

anyone think that the panic stage has been reached in florida, callifornia, and arizona?

entering the fear stage in northern va i would say.

Comment by Quirk
2008-02-18 11:32:21

Remember, it’s different in Florida!

Different in that they are slower on the uptake than others.

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-18 11:35:46

I am looking for signs of panic in California but the only one stressing is me.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-18 11:38:21

I’m still seeing signs of hope springing eternal in Tucson. On yesterday’s bike ride, I passed by a house that had been on the market for, oh, two years. It was finally sold (under duress) last fall.

Well, wouldn’t ya know it, a real estate agent bought it for $336k. It had been listed in the 600s, but you know what being on the market for so long will do for a wishing price. He’s now offering the place as a rental (even though our county assessor records show it as Residential Owner Occupied) for $1,500 per month.

It’s also being spruced up, superficially at least. It’s gotten quite the paint job in the past few weeks. The Landscapers from Hell have also gotten their hands on it. (Memo to the LFH crew: You’ve over-trimmed the mesquite trees. Which means that they’ll probably blow over during the next big windstorm.)

I’ll let all of you math wizards do the cap rates and other fun calculations. In the meantime, while the calculators are whirring, let’s say this guy isn’t going to be cash flow positive on the place.

I can’t help thinking that he’s going to try renting it out for a few, then he’ll put it back on the market at, oh, $600k or so. After all, it’s in the oh-so-desirable Sam Hughes neighborhood, so it will HAVE to sell, right?

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 11:50:51

No one will pay over $200k for his house. At $1500 a month rent, he is going to walk away soon.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-18 11:53:04

C’mon Slim. Obviously it was bought with “instant equity”! Hello? ;-)

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-02-18 12:00:25

Sleepless, you are truly evil. I’ll bet it was purchased that way.

And, if you want to rib this “investor” even further, go to his website.

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Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-18 12:19:00

This is proof enough we aren’t even halfway to the bottom. When infestors won’t touch a house with a 10 foot pole, then buy

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by gascap
2008-02-18 15:37:04

Anecdote update time: relatives with a WWII vacation shack in FL pulled it off the market last summer, claim its worth 150K and will wait out the market to get their 150K. Their neightbor with a larger house just listed at 85K (actually listed 2 weeks ago and not snatched up yet). Ouch.

 
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