The Housing Bubble

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “After years of easy money, when people in the lending industry joked that all you needed was a pulse to get a loan with a low, initial teaser rate, lenders have returned to making sure borrowers are qualified to make payments. ‘Some of my loan officers I have been talking to said, it used to be if 10 people applied for a loan, only one or two would not qualify,’ said Peter Lansing, president of Universal Lending.”

“‘Now they are saying, if 10 people apply, as many as six or seven of them will not qualify,’ Lansing said. ‘That’s been a big shocker to people.’”

“Now, even if their credit scores are high enough, if the house is underwater - that is, the loan is worth more than the real estate - they’re likely to be rejected by the lender. But people who are refinancing today, seldom take money out, Lansing said.”

“Instead, they either are refinancing to save money each month or to seek the safety of a fixed-rate loan. ‘For some people, it’s just a matter of sleeping better at night,’ Lansing said.”

The Arizona Daily Sun. “Homeowners, contractors and Flagstaff city officials all have questions about Empire Communities, the largest homebuilder in northern Arizona. Empire, it seems, is all but gone from Flagstaff, leaving townhouses unfinished and a lone salesperson in one project referring calls to the Prescott office.”

“The townhomes built by Empire in the Pinnacle Pines development in Flagstaff, once touted as ‘fairy-tale cottages,’ are proving to be a harsh reality to many.”

“Currently, the project has been only partially built, with residents scattered between empty and unfinished townhomes. A salesperson is showing homes by phone appointment only. About 40 have been built on the 22-acre parcel. A second phase of the development would have built 104 more homes on an adjacent 18-acre parcel, city records show.”

“Currently, the townhomes are priced between $299,900 and $440,900 on Empire’s Web site.”

“‘They are not paying their (subcontractors) right now,’ said Scott Daniels of the Phoenix-based Fortress Framing Inc. ‘They kind of quit answering the phones.’”

“John Wesnitzer bought his townhome in Pinnacle Pines last December. He found little things that needed to be fixed after he moved in, and at the time, Empire seemed very willing to address the issues. Today, Wesnitzer said he is still waiting for Empire to approve the work.”

“Another homeowner in the Empire-built The Retreat at Ponderosa Trails said she has been waiting for the developer to address construction issues since November 2006. The homeowner, who asked not to be identified, said the home is under the warranty provided by Empire when she purchased it.”

“‘Now that we have no contact person, we are faced with repairing these issues ourselves,’ the homeowner said. ‘The repairs have been estimated to be close to $20,000. This creates a substantial financial issue for our family, but it needs to be done.’”

The Glendale Star from Arizona. “Arizona economic guru Elliott Pollack laid it all out for those who attended WESTMARC’s annual membership breakfast meeting at Glendale Civic Center. ‘Yes, the country is ‘probably’ going through a recession. Yes, the housing market is going to get worse. Retail sales are off, and employment actually turned negative last month. If there is a recession, it has not started yet, but it is likely.”

“Pollack predicts 2008 not only will be weak but there will be continued weakness in the housing market, and housing prices will decline. In mid-2008, he predicts a weakness in commercial construction. The year will also see a decline in employment and weakness in real incomes.”

“‘The credit crunch ends when banks see stability,’ Pollack said. ‘We just have to live through it.’”

“Although the Arizona economy is suffering just like the rest of the country, it should still outperform the nation as a whole, he said, adding, ‘but we need to keep an eye on housing.’ It will be another three to five years before we will see a full recovery in the housing market, Pollack said.”

“The apartment vacancy rate is going up. Where are renters? ‘More likely than not, they’re renting single-family homes,’ Pollack said.”

From KTAR.com in Arizona. “New housing numbers show some big price drops, especially in the west Valley, according to Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business.”

“The west Valley market is down about 15 percent over the past year, said Dr. Jay Butler, who tracks the housing market for ASU. He said much of that is because of speculators.”

“‘Many people got caught up in this hyper explosion of the residential market of ‘give me a home, give me a home anywhere, because it’s going to go up in value, etcetera,’ Butler said.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “Sometime this weekend, several dozen of your neighbors will go back in time nearly 10 years. There, they’ll see a 3,128-square-foot Christopher Homes house in Summerlin’s upscale Country Rose Estates on sale for its circa 2000 price of $370,000.”

“So how, you want to know, will people revisit this past era? Through a time machine? Virtual reality? A tear in the fabric of a parallel universe? Nope, no fancy physics here: They’ll simply hop a ride on a foreclosure bus tour led by Barbara and Marshall Zucker of Prudential Americana Group, Realtors.”

“Other Realtors are planning or are already conducting bus rides. Through the tours, Realtors hope to chip away, 10 and 15 properties at a time, at the valley’s 7,000-home inventory of foreclosed houses.”

“For Jennifer Weinberg, foreclosure tours aren’t only about ginning up sales; they’re also about public service.”

“‘It’s a great way to stimulate business for us,’ she said. ‘But more importantly, I’ve been a resident here for 30 years, and my house has gone down in value based on (comparable sales prices), too. The only way to recover from this crazy market is to get houses off the books quickly, so we’re helping out the community, too.’”

“In addition to the Christopher home in Summerlin, which last sold in 2004 for $750,000, Zucker’s tour will take in a 1,470-square-foot home in Summerlin’s Hills listed for $212,000.”

“Among the deals offered on Weinberg’s tours is a four-bedroom, two-bath home in Summerlin that’s been reduced from $500,000 to $320,000.”

“For Las Vegans Tara and Marty Faber, Weinberg’s tour was less an opportunity to buy than a chance to get a reality check. ‘You hear all kinds of rumors, and we thought it might be a good idea, since it was free, to see if the rumors were true,’ Tara Faber said. ‘People say, ‘There are all these foreclosures, and they’re great deals, but they’re in really bad shape.’”

“Instead, Faber said, she found ’some great deals out there, and they’re in a lot better condition than we anticipated.’ The Fabers, who own a home in southwest Las Vegas, probably will go on future tours but won’t buy unless they find the ‘perfect’ floor plan at the best price, Faber said.”

“Streamline Tower is scheduled to bring 275 luxury condo units on line in the next few months, joining SoHo Lofts and Newport Lofts in the downtown Las Vegas high-rise market. The 21-story tower is substantially complete and ready for inspections and testing, managing partner Dusty Allen said.”

“He said the tower is about 65 percent sold. Some high-rise condo buyers have had trouble closing escrow as financing that was once available has either disappeared or qualifications and terms have changed as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis.”

“‘We think it’s still a very viable and exciting option for a primary or second home or an investment,’ Allen said.”

“‘Obviously, there’s struggles out there that are becoming more widely known,’ Allen said. ‘We’re still trudging along. Obviously, like other developers, we wish there’d be more sales.’”

“Units are priced from the mid-$400,000s for one bedroom to upward of $1 million for three bedrooms.”

In Business Las Vegas. “It’s been a tough year for John Ritter, and we’re only seven weeks into it. The chairman and CEO of Focus Property Group, the developer of master-planned communities such as Mountain’s Edge, Inspirada and Providence, has had to deal with a major setback for his company after years of success.”

“Focus’ financial woes are being played out for all of the Las Vegas Valley to see after the company announced it’s in discussions with its lenders to restructure debt. Focus missed an interest payment on more than $500 million in debt Feb. 1.”

“‘It is very difficult on me,’ Ritter said. ‘I have been in real estate for 26 years and never missed a payment. We did everything possible, but the fact of the matter is this is what it is, and we have to face it head on because we fully intend on surviving this market.”

“It’s not a place Ritter ever envisioned being in at the height of the Las Vegas housing boom when Focus turned heads in June 2004 by partnering with seven homebuilders to pay $557 million at a federal auction for 1,940 acres in Henderson.”

“Eight months later Focus Group and eight builders paid $510 million to buy 1,710 acres in Kyle Canyon.”

“‘I got to tell you at the time those were good deals if you were looking at what homes were selling for and the pace at which they were selling,’ Ritter said. ‘Given the same circumstances, I would do those deals again. Now, of course, if I had a crystal ball and had I known there would be such a long and deep slowdown, there are probably a lot of things I would have done differently.’”

“In recent years local money was used to acquire 4,800 acres in Las Vegas, Pahrump and Victorville, Calif., that Focus has been unable to sell at the prices it wants. Some market observers put the onus on Focus for going on a buying spree without fully anticipating the slowdown in the housing market. Ritter said he doesn’t blame them.”

“‘In retrospect, with 20-20 hindsight, we were overly aggressive,’ Ritter said. ‘Certainly, had we know there was going to be a potential five-year slowdown, we would have been less aggressive. I would have to say we weren’t the only (ones) surprised by this.’”

“‘We are working on selling land, and I think it will take the market a couple of years to recover,’ Ritter said. ‘We are starting to see some positive signs, and at least locally, we are seeing it start to test the bottom. I am not saying it is at the bottom. It is difficult to say.’”

“Ritter said 2008 will be tough for the housing market and that any recovery won’t bee seen until 2009. By 2010 the market will be doing well and by 2011, there will be a boom again.”

“Other builders and developers are facing similar problems. Lenders foreclosed on raw land in Lake Las Vegas and other builders have filed for bankruptcy protection or are dealing with financial woes.”

“‘It is tough for everybody out there,’ Ritter said. ‘I think whether it has hit the paper or not, almost every real estate transaction financial vehicle is in some stage of negotiations or restructuring.’”

“The availability of credit to buy homes and the ability to stay out of a deep recession, which could stretch out the recovery, will affect any recovery, he said.”

“Harrah’s Entertainment has laid off workers and reduced hours at many of its properties around the country, citing the slowing economy, the company confirmed Friday. The current round of layoffs includes nearly 100 workers at its eight local properties.”

“Harrah’s owns four properties in Northern Nevada, one in Laughlin, and 20 more in eight states outside Nevada. ‘If business continues to be less than optimal in some regions, we’re going to have to adjust our costs there,’ said Harrah’s Entertainment spokesman Gary Thompson.”

“Harrah’s confirmation follows similar reports by Station Casinos and MGM Mirage that the economic downturn is causing layoffs, work-hour reductions and hiring freezes of a few positions.”

“The economic slowdown in gaming comes as consumer confidence ebbs because of the local housing crisis, said Brian Gordon, a principal at a Las Vegas financial consulting firm. ‘The soft economic conditions are impacting all business sectors and all geographies,’ Gordon said. ‘The Las Vegas gaming sector is feeling the downswing in the overall economy and is responding accordingly.’”

“‘There is no question these are tough times,’ Boyd Gaming Corp. spokesman Rob Stillwell said. ‘We manage our business very closely. We are always working to keep expenses in line with business levels, and today is no different than previous times.’”

“A worker at one of the company’s properties said Friday that ‘vacation relief and on-call people are dying for something to do’ because of a slowdown in business.”

The Dayton Courier from Nevada. “Nevada’s unemployment rate jumped to 5.8 percent in December — the highest it’s been since April 2002 — and Lyon County’s unemployment rate was at 6.5 percent. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate was at 5 percent in December, said Chief Economist Bill Anderson of the Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation.”

“‘Although population growth in the state has slowed, Nevada’s labor force has increased by about 25,000 since June,’ Anderson said. ‘The economy has been unable to absorb the new workers, however, and the ranks of the unemployed have swelled by about 14,000.’”

“The housing slowdown remains the primary cause of labor market problems, Anderson said. The construction industry shed nearly 8,000 jobs in 2007, despite work on numerous large projects on the Las Vegas Strip.”

“Other industries have contributed to Nevada’s weak job growth — now at a five-year low of 0.6 percent. The financial industry lost 1,500 jobs in 2007, and the employment services (temporary help) sector shed 8,200 jobs.”

“‘The housing slump very likely contributed to the weakness in those industries as well,’ Anderson said. ‘The year 2007 was a less than memorable one for Nevada’s economy. Labor market conditions continued the deterioration that began in 2006. When the final numbers are in, the state is likely to have seen its second weakest job growth–better only than 2002–in the past 15 years.’”

“‘While much of the prior year data will be revised–with initial publication of the revisions in early March–the slowing trend reported throughout 2007 is almost certain to be confirmed,’ he said. ‘(t)his trend is likely to continue into 2008.’”