The Housing Bubble

The Flathead Beacon reports from Montana. “With 252 foreclosures, Flathead County had the highest foreclosure rate of any county in the state last year, according to RealtyTrac. That meant a 66 percent jump over 2006’s 152 foreclosed homes. Local real estate professionals are short on answers for why Flathead would outpace other Montana counties with foreclosures, suggesting only that the incredible boom in growth in the past decade would naturally lend itself to an increase in foreclosures as well.”

“‘Is it quieter than it was? Yes, way quieter,’ said broker Mary Kay Myett. ‘But, to the point where a lot of foreclosures are on the market? No.’”

“‘One of the things looking out over the next few years is that we may still see more foreclosures as some more people get into trouble as they adjust up and can’t afford their new rates,’ Myett said. ‘If the market remains healthy though, they’ll hopefully be able to put their house up and sell and get out from under that.’”

“Paul Polzin, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, said Flathead’s foreclosure rate was ‘way above’ rural, eastern parts of the state and comparable to larger, more metropolitan areas like Boise and Spokane. Still, he said, Flathead and the state don’t compare to the worst-hit locales.”

“‘We have not avoided the foreclosure problems or the housing price bubble bursting, but they do seem less severe in this area,’ he said.”

The Idaho Statesman. “Dan Hernandez, the newly installed president of the Ada County Association of Realtors, now heads an organization of some 4,000 Ada County Realtors who are struggling to weather the worst sales downturn in recent memory.”

“Q: In your 14 years, have you ever seen a market as bad as this one? A: This is nothing. I was in Los Angeles when the market crashed in the beginning of 1990. The market almost died overnight and seemed to hit rock bottom. So this is nothing.”

“Q: But there are lot of things putting downward pressure on home prices nationwide. Why hasn’t it happened here?”

“A: Because Boise continues to be one of the most desirable places to live in the nation. I deal with quite a few out-of-state buyers. I’m going to have to use the C word here, but the majority are still coming in from California. The number of Californians who have been able to sell their homes has dropped off because that market is flat. But those that are successful in selling want out and are still moving here. Boise is their location of choice.”

“Q: What about those median prices? A: If you look at other areas, they mention having home appreciation of 35 percent or even 50 percent. We didn’t have that. We went up 20 percent. But averaged over five years, we’re a solid 10 percent a year.”

“People here ask me when is the housing bubble is going to burst. My response is that there is no bubble because what we’ve had was steady growth that has been relatively conservative compared to what we have seen elsewhere. When appreciation rates shoot straight up, they’re bound to come back down. And that’s what’s happening elsewhere.”

“Q: Was having so many outside investors here bad for the market? A: I can’t say yes and I can’t say no. But I look back at the level of investors we had, and it was bad for the community. I saw many transactions where the buyers were investors who wrote and offer on new construction with the expectation that by the time the transaction closed there would already be some equity there. And when it did not reach the level that they anticipated, I saw investors bail, giving up there ernest money just to get out.”

“Q: Will we see investors returning to the Treasure Valley? A: I think Californians are ‘flirting’ with the Idaho housing market.”

“Q: We’re seeing a lot of foreclosures locally. Won’t dumping that many homes on the market depress home values even more? A: As I mentioned before, I’m still selling homes - even with the high numbers of homes out there that are in default. I know many agents are working the default market and are doing quite well.”

“One recent Saturday, agent Edenn Jablonski spent two hours escorting potential buyers through Jeremy and Jennifer Higley’s home adjacent to the back nine at Hillcrest Country Club. The couple bought their 2,000-square-foot, four-bedroom, two-bath home in the Central Club Manor subdivision as a HUD repo for $84,000 on Sept. 10, 2001.”

“Since then, Jeremy Higley estimates he and his wife have invested $30,000 in the house, including new plumbing, handmade cabinets in the kitchen, and a master suite featuring walk-in closets, a jetted soaker tub, and French doors leading to a 20-by-10 deck.”

“The Higleys dropped their original asking price from $254,000 to $229,000, then again to $209,000.”

“‘We wanted to be aggressive, because we want to expand our business,’ Jeremy Higley said. ‘We need a place with acreage and plenty of garage space. Plus, we’re hoping to pick up a good deal in a bad market.’”

“But the Higleys have not come to terms with the lone offer on their house so far. The early results on their open house were not encouraging, either.”

The Oregon City News. “Nearly three months after liquidating 141 homes in what is thought to be the biggest housing auction in Oregon history, homebuilder Buena Vista Custom Homes plans to finish selling off its inventory with another auction.”

“On Saturday, March 8, Buena Vista will attempt to sell 44 homes and 18 buildable lots. Of the total 62 properties, 43 are in Happy Valley.”

“Fifty-eight Happy Valley homes sold during the Dec. 15 and 16 mega-auction. ‘The first auction was so successful,’ said Buena Vista spokesman Andy Lucich. ‘The goal is to clear the inventory so Buena Vista can be buyers again in this market.’”

“Twenty-five of the homes that will be up at this auction were sold at the last auction in December, but the sales fell through.”

“‘Some of the houses that were sold at the auction fell through at the title [signing],’ Lucich said. ‘In Beaverton where some of the homes were selling really well, one guy tried to buy like five and couldn’t afford that many, so those will be back up at this auction.’”

“Buena Vista reported that it sold 96 percent of the homes below its secret reserve price, a number that the company said reflects the builder’s costs. ‘I don’t think the public believed that we would sell the homes for the low prices that we did during the first auction and this time the deals are going to be even better,’ said Roger Pollock, owner of Buena Vista Custom Homes.”

“As was the case in the last auction, the homebuilder has set starting bids at prices considerably lower than the ‘previously valued to’ price. Starting bids for houses in Jackson Hills Phase II range from $129,000 to $299,000; listed values for those homes range from $468,950 to $584,950.”

“In the last auction, Sandy resident Luke Lyons had hoped to come home with a Hamilton Ridge purchase, but found that prices quickly skyrocketed past his predetermined price range and that houses sold in less than two minutes.”

“Real estate professionals and would-be homebuyers have criticized the auction for making it look like a bargain-hunting homebuyer’s dream come true, while Buena Vista enjoys frenzied activity in an uncertain market, as well as a decent haul for its efforts.”

“The company’s ‘previously listed up to’ price has come under fire for making certain homes appear to be more valuable than they would be in today’s market.”

“A 4-bedroom, 2.1-bath, 2,261-square-foot home in Hamilton Ridge was advertised in the December auction with a ‘list price’ of $348,950, while a nearly identical home down the street sold two months before for $267,950.”

“‘From a marketing standpoint, it’s kind of a genius way to get every potential buyer to the table in a tough market,’ said local real estate agent Jason Shuler, who had exclusive marketing rights in Hamilton Ridge until the first auction was announced.”

“‘They’re not trying to walk away with bags of money,’ Lucich countered. ‘It’s more about clearing the inventory.’”

The Kitsap Sun from Washington. “Lured by the promise of lower monthly payments, a couple in their 80s trade their 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage for one with an adjustable rate and terms they don’t pay much attention to.”

“Then life happens: big medical bills, the family needs help. Soon, the couple racks up $50,000 in credit card debt. They try to dig out by getting a home-equity line of credit. But the value of their home has plummeted in the slow market. With the new debt and a giant prepayment penalty on the ARM, they don’t qualify.”

“Today, they are close to bankruptcy and may lose their home. This real-life couple joins many others struggling with high-priced home loans they didn’t understand when they got them — and no longer can afford.”

“Marvelle Lahmeyer, a housing counselor with Kitsap County Consolidated Housing Authority, said she’s never seen it so bad. Dozens visit or call her Silverdale office each week. She expects quadruple that volume this year. The tissue box is hopping. ‘The majority of it is they just got a bad loan,’ she said.”

“Last month in Kitsap County, there were 49 bankruptcies, a 29 percent increase over January 2007. Bankruptcies rose 67 percent in Jefferson County, and 275 percent in Mason County.”

“To make matters worse, local employers — school districts, the Navy, retailers and restaurants — are laying off workers or cutting back their hours, Lahmeyer said. Suddenly, a mortgage can take up half their income, and foreclosure becomes a looming prospect.”

“Making it even tougher to get out of bad loans is the lack of appreciation — or depreciation — of the value of homes. ‘They’re upside down on their loans. They own more than the house is worth,’ Lahmeyer said.”

“A new study from the Washington Task Force for Homeowner Security estimates the number of high-priced loans in the Bremerton-Silverdale area at 22 percent, not unlike many other areas in Washington.”

“Kelly Maves, a mortgage-loan officer with Kitsap Bank, said the biggest mistake she sees is that clients simply want to know how big of a mortgage they can get without giving much thought to their monthly budget. She also suggests getting educated on the wide range of available loans and understanding the fine print.”

“‘It’s one of the most important investments you’ll make in your life, and they don’t understand the complications of the loans,’ she said.”

The Columbia Basin Herald from Washington. “Median home prices were up in Grant County as home sales and home prices in the state slipped the last quarter of 2007. The Washington Center for Real Estate Research reported last week the slips in Washington reflected a national downturn.”

“Median home prices jumped the most in Grant County, rising 20.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006, to $169,900. The median home sales price in Washington during the fourth quarter was $293,900, down 2.5 percent from the final quarter of 2006.”

“Center Director Glenn Crellin said he didn’t exactly know the reason for the jump in Grant County.”

“‘Obviously, any time we’re dealing with a price change in a relatively small geographic area, such as Grant County, sometime we get statistics that are a little bit of an aberration,’ Crellin said. ‘The sale of comparatively few expensive properties, even the median can be affected by that.’”

“Crellin was familiar with the economic growth going on in the area. ‘Certainly it would play a role,’ he said. ‘(We are) well aware there are several developers that are attempting to put in high-end homes up in the Quincy marketplace, probably more than I would have ever dreamed those data farms would have been able to support.’”

“Other places had ‘rampant speculation” in the housing market, Crellin said…where the amount of new construction was far beyond the population growth in the market places.”

“‘People were buying homes on the expectation it was going to be like any other kind of an investment, that they would be able to turn it around very quickly,’ Crellin said. ‘Once interest rates started to go up and they started to have the problems in the financial markets, everything just dried up at once. The investor-purchasers of that property now are trying to (figure out) what they could possibly do to keep from going bankrupt.’”

“‘I don’t think rapid price increases are going to be prevailing in the long term,’ he said.”

“Chelan County has been leading the nation for several quarters now in terms of price appreciation, Crellin added, so Grant County may be seeing some spillover from that region.”

“Moses Lake real estate agent Rich Engelmann said the rising median price is an indicator of a solid local job and housing market.”

“‘We’re hearing all this talk about how the housing market’s going down and all this gloom and doom, but in our area, the housing market is still good,’ he said. ‘We’re holding steady. That to me speaks good. We’ve got a good base to draw from, so the jobs are there. Everything else is supported, so we’re not going to lose jobs because of it.’”

“Engelmann said the increase is not going to stop. ‘Our housing market is strong, look for prices and stuff to go up this summer,’ he said.”

“Engelmann pointed to the government stepping in to help fund and increase loan limits. ‘The bad lending stuff is getting taken care of,’ he said.”

“‘If I was a home buyer (I) would buy,’ he said. ‘It’s a buyer’s market and it’s going to change by summer time. The next six months, we could see it taking off again.’”