February 26, 2008

Market Psychology Is On The Downside In California

The Mercury News reports from California. “Home sales around the Bay Area fell in January for the 36th month in a row, and four Bay Area counties saw median prices drop below $500,000, something not seen since 2005, DataQuick reported. A total of 3,586 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area in January. That was down 29.2 percent from 5,065 in December, and down 41.9 percent from 6,168 in January 2007.”

“The figures were the lowest for any month in DataQuick’s 20-year history. Foreclosed sales counted for 19 percent for the entire Bay Area.”

“‘There was very little selling in those counties and significant chunks of it were foreclosure activity, said analyst Andrew LePage. ‘In Contra Costa, 33.1 percent of homes sold in January had been foreclosed on in 2007. In Solano County it was 43.2 and Alameda it was 24.9 percent.’”

“The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $550,000 last month, down 6.4 percent from $587,500 in December, and down 8.5 percent from $601,000 in January last year. Last month’s median was 17.3 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median, reached in July, and was the lowest since February 2005, when the median was $549,000.”

“Hans Johnson, associate director of research for the Public Policy Institute of California, said many factors were influencing housing statistics, including market psychology, decreased demand and the credit crunch.”

“‘While there was clearly a market psychology when the market was going up,’ he said, ‘now market psychology is on the downside.’”

“In the heady years of the real estate boom, buyers who pulled out of a deal usually got their deposits back. But these days, in a market still searching for a bottom, buyers who walk away are increasingly out of luck.”

“Just ask Seyda Harding Kaynak. Three months after she put down a $30,000 deposit on a $952,975 home to be built by Toll Brothers in Dublin, she and her husband changed their minds. So in July, Kaynak asked Toll Brothers to refund her own deposit. The company…refused, pointing to the signed contract, which both Kaynak and her husband signed. Eight months later, Kaynak is still fighting to get her deposit back.”

“Kaynak, a Pleasanton resident, realty agent for 20 years and onetime lawyer, is well-acquainted with the home-building industry. She said her house wasn’t even built when she tried to cancel the contract last summer. Furthermore, she said she has represented several new-home buyers in the past who backed out of contracts, even at the last minute, and got back their deposits.”

“‘In each case, each builder said, ‘We’re not in the business of keeping people’s deposits, we’re in the business of building homes. We would rather keep their good will,’ Kaynak recalled. ‘I remember those words.’”

“‘In the past, some home builders would not try to keep deposits knowing full well they could sell the property for more money within a short period of time,’ said Ron Rossi, a veteran real estate attorney in San Jose. ‘Obviously when the markets get tighter, these things get more dicey.’”

“Attorneys who handle such cases say disputes over deposits are on the rise, and not just over new homes, but also for resale homes. ‘I’m seeing all these $300,000, $400,000 even $500,000 deposits that are fought over,’ attorney Rossi said.”

“Kaynak, whose contract contained no contingencies, said that, like many buyers, she was swept away in the moment.”

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

The Ventura County Star. “Home sales in Ventura County and other high-cost areas were ‘abysmal’ in January, economists said Monday. Year-over-year sales have been declining since October 2005, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.”

“Ventura County sales of existing single-family detached homes plunged to 195 in January, a 38.3 percent drop-off from 317 for the same month a year ago, according to CAR.”

“‘Good grief,’ said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, when told about the number of transactions. ‘They can’t get much lower than this.’”

“The median sales price was $590,380, down 11.1 percent from $664,400 a year ago and 2.4 percent from $604,730 in December, according to CAR. It was the first time the median dropped to less than $600,000 since November 2004, when the price was $596,000.”

“One of veteran agent Janet Scarborough’s clients purchased a home two years ago for $525,000, but is being forced into a short sale. The three-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 1,660-square-foot condominium in Ventura initially was listed for about $439,000 in October.”

“The price since has been reduced several times. Calls started coming in after it was listed for $385,000. Still, one bidder wanted to go lower, offering $320,000.”

“Similar hard times are being felt throughout the state. In California, home sales plunged to one of their lowest levels in 25 years in January, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. The California median was $430,370 last month, a 21.9 percent drop from the $441,220 a year ago, according to CAR.”

“‘I do think we have a ways to go before we get through this,’ Kleinhenz said.”

The Press Telegram. “Los Angeles County’s housing market continued its decline in January with the median price retreating to 2005 levels, a trade association said Monday. The median price of a home in the county fell an annual 18.4 percent to $469,420, said the California Association of Realtors.”

“Sales plunged 39 percent from January 2007. ‘I cannot imagine we will go much further,’ said Kleinhenz. ‘But it’s really an open question now. It depends on how long the liquidity crunch is in play.’”

“In the High Desert, which includes the Antelope Valley, sales fell 39 percent and the median price plunged 26.2 percent to $234,310.”

“Jonathan Petralia, an agent who works in the Northridge-Porter Ranch area of the San Fernando Valley, said properties are selling, but only those priced realistically. Some asking prices here are now back to early 2004 levels, he said, and homeowners wanting top dollar will be disappointed.”

“‘There are buyers out there. But I want homeowners and the public to know that buyers are price sensitive. They are looking for value,’ he said.”

The Sacramento Bee. “Prices for building materials are slipping as new home construction continues to slump. Demand from the remodeling sector is down from its peak when both speculators and homeowners sank equity into their properties, betting they would increase in value, said Adam J. Fein, founder and president of Pembroke Consulting.”

“Gordy and Lydia DeNecochea of Sacramento’s Land Park area are looking to score savings. Retirees who have owned their home since 1970, the DeNecocheas are shopping the Internet and local businesses for items to remodel the kitchen.”

“Although they differ on the aesthetics, one thing is clear to the couple: ‘Granite is cheap.’”

“The cost of prefabricated granite has dropped considerably from the building boom highs of four years ago, as much as 50 percent or more, said Cheryl Tarido, a sales associate at Medimer Marble & Granite.”

“‘In our particular county, people are holding materials,’ said Gordy DeNecochea, a former administrator at the state’s Department of Housing and Community Development. ‘The prices will come down. They can’t afford to hang onto the inventory.’”

“Remodeler Darius Baker said the remaining growth is coming from homeowners who have decided they will keep their houses rather than cashing out in a down market.”

“‘The homeowner’s saying, ‘I’m going out of this house feet first. I’m happy with the neighborhood. I want to make this house exactly what I want it to be,’ Baker said. ‘They’re saying, ‘I’m going to spend my equity and make it my own little Taj Mahal.’”

“Baker said he’s finding no shortage of building products when he places his orders. That’s far different from several years ago. ‘The products are readily available,’ he said.”

Bay Area Newsgroup. “Move over McMansion, make room for the East Bay’s newer, cheaper house. KB Home will add two new scaled-down models to its new Antioch development, Almond Ridge, that will range from the low-to-mid-$300,000s.”

“‘Our business model focuses primarily on the affordability and combines the whole idea of value to the customer,’ said Marc Burnstein, VP of sales and marketing for KB Home, South Bay Division, which includes the East Bay. ‘The average homes size was 2,700 square feet and now it’s about 2,100 square feet.’”

“Burnstein said the biggest expense for builders is land and by adding more density per acre, it creates more affordability. ‘You combine that with a build-to-order business model and people aren’t going in and paying for things they don’t want or need,’ he said.”

“Bryce Ellsworth, broker in Brentwood, said that builders in tougher markets will find it hard to compete with newer bank-owned properties. ‘People look for value and a house being under a certain price,’ he said. ‘But they want a bigger house for less money.’”

“Alan Nevin, chief economist of the California Building Industry Association, said that in the Bay Area, smaller homes will be seen first in the outlying areas of east Alameda and Contra Costa counties, as well as Solano County.”

“‘It’s hard to buy a $250,000 plot of land and put a 1,200-square-foot house on it,’ he said. ‘But if they were $200,000 and now you’re getting it for $100,000, you can put out smaller homes.’”

“Nevin said that publicly traded builders, who answer to shareholders, have more pressure to sell off existing land than private builders. Many will be selling land to smaller developers at a loss, possibly fueling the cheaper land for cheaper houses trend.”

“‘Across the board we will be downshifting to about 2003 to 2004 prices,’ he said.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Carl Cole, the former Crisp & Cole Real Estate broker and the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation, has a new job selling real estate on the coast.”

“Keller Williams Realty recently hired Cole to work in its Camarillo branch as a broker/associate, according to a Feb 3. advertisement placed with the Ventura County Star newspaper. When reached by phone at his new office this morning, Cole hung up.”

“Cristina Better, who runs the real estate agency, said she doesn’t ‘really have any background information on him.’ ‘I don’t want to discuss him,’ Better said.”

“Better then hung up as well.”

“In September, federal agents raided 13 Bakersfield offices and homes associated with the Crisp & Cole Real Estate company and its founders, the more experienced Cole and his partner, 28-year-old David Crisp.”

“The Department of Real Estate, the state agency regulating the real estate industry, also filed a detailed complaint against Cole, Crisp and three of their ex-employees in September, alleging they deceived lenders to secure more than $12 million worth of home loans.”

“The Ventura County Star ad lists a variety of professional titles Cole has earned, including the energy and environment-focused EcoBroker designation.”

“‘My mission is to provide real estate clients the direction needed to make pragmatic and informed decisions that will enhance the value of the lives, their families, their communities and the environment, thus enabling them to make economic, energy-saving, and environmentally sustainable choices,’ Cole is quoted as saying.”

From KGET TV 17. “It’s been five months since the fbi raided the homes and businesses of real estate agents David Crisp and Carl Cole. Former Crisp and Cole real estate agent Scott Reynolds didn’t want to talk with us on camera about his former employer David Crisp, but his defense attorney says Reynolds has been talking to the authorities.”

“‘We have been in contact with the FBI and in contact with the prosecutors, I think that’s an open fact right now,’ said defense attorney Carl Faller.”

“The FBI will not confirm for 17 News whom or what they are investigating. But it might be home purchases like the one Reynolds made at 522 Fern Valley Way.”

“Reynolds bought the property from David Crisp and Carl Cole in July 2006 for $414 thousand with 100-percent financing from SunTrust mortgage. The house went into foreclosure in December, and eventually sold for $240 thousand.”

“‘David Crisp involved a lot of folks: employees, friends, old high school friends in some land deals that he represented to be totally legitimate,’ Faller said. ‘But in retrospect they might have been a little sketchy.’”

“Not so, says former Crisp and Cole broker Ty Stewart. Crisp is now living with Stewart at a Southern Oaks home.”

“‘I have worked for David and Carl from the very beginning. And I wasn’t taken advantage of,’ Stewart said. ‘But I can only speak for myself.’”

“‘It’s not his fault that properties have lost values. That’s happened across the board,’ Stewart added. ‘There are over a thousand foreclosures in Kern County right now, and David didn’t have to do with hardly any of those.’”

“‘Everybody thinks that his situation is funny, and it’s just desserts, so they are having a good time with it. You know, but he’s gotta live his life,’ Stewart said.”

“At the height of the market, Stewart admits Crisp made quite a statement, driving a $500 thousand Mercedes and reportedly flying potential clients to Bakersfield in a private plane.”

“‘Were they flashy and eccentric? Absolutely. Did they flaunt their success? Sure. And that’s starting to look like a pretty bad marketing strategy,’ Stewart said. ‘I don’t think anyone was pressured into buying anything, everyone wanted to make some money over here.’”




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187 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-26 15:17:52

Another month where the press almost ignores the CAR report.

BTW, from the VCS, can anybody figure out what this guy is saying?

‘While sales in the county have reached ‘absolutely abysmal levels,’ January’s housing report was neither alarming nor encouraging, said Mark Schniepp, executive director of the California Economic Forecast Project in Goleta.’

‘The median price drop does not mean a home’s actual value is ‘falling like a rock,’ Schniepp said. He attributes the decline to the fact that more low-end homes are selling because people cannot secure jumbo loans for higher-priced properties.’

‘December and January appear ‘especially poor,’ because the credit crunch, which started to reconcile in November, re-emerged in December when rising defaults created a scare among investors, causing the mortgage-backed securities market that packaged jumbo loans to deteriorate, Schniepp said.’

‘He describes the housing market as in an L-shape that hasn’t curved upward toward a U, which would signify a rebound. ‘As far as the market improving, we’ve reached the bottom,’ he said. ‘Now we’re simply bumping along the bottom.’

Comment by M.B.A.
2008-02-26 16:33:22

bumping at the bottom of the 1st inning he must mean… right?

 
Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2008-02-26 16:34:04

In other news, Schniepp completely ignored the Case-Schiller index decline of 8.9% year over year, which measures same-home sales.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 16:36:57

`He attributes the decline to the fact that more low-end homes are selling because people cannot secure jumbo loans for higher-priced properties.’

I think he is saying in so many words that the bottom has dropped out of the market for homes that used to be purchased with jumbo loans.

 
Comment by JohnF
2008-02-26 16:39:03

It is a little infuriating how these “experts” get stuck on the “liquidity crisis” theme. They just can’t bring themselves to say that prices are too high relative to family incomes.

Maybe lower-priced homes are selling because those are the only homes anyone can afford? It’s at least as good an explanation as the “liquidity crisis” reason this guy gives.

The bottom line is that until the average family can afford the average home in Ventura County, the amount of transactions will continue at the current (lower) levels. These so-called experts think the housing market acts like the stock market, with people jumping in and out at will. Perhaps that is what it was like for the last few years, but not anymore.

Comment by salinasron
2008-02-26 18:32:22

“It is a little infuriating how these “experts” get stuck on the “liquidity crisis” theme.”

I think that the liquidity theme comes from the lack of being able to HELOC the property to pay for the mortgage. First they bought an asset that they couldn’t afford, then had it assessed for more then they paid, took out a loan to make the payments, and next year repeated the process. The loan buyers were the bag holders in this ponzi scheme which had to come to an end when the price/income level hit the ceiling. If liquidity in the form of home ATM/HELOC money hadn’t dried up the game would continue.

 
Comment by Awaiting Bubble Rubble
2008-02-27 09:38:27

‘It is a little infuriating how these “experts” get stuck on the “liquidity crisis” theme. ‘

The number of transactions and possibly even median sales price will probably bump up in the spring (as is the seasonal pattern) so I’m sure you’ll get these ‘experts’ calling an end to the crash, even as the ratio of #of sales/inventory continues to decline as it will for another 12-18 months!

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-02-26 16:45:42

Maybe he’s auditioning for a govmint job.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-26 17:28:12

Let’s remove the drivel and see what we have!

sales have reached ‘absolutely abysmal levels,’ January’s housing report was neither alarming nor encouraging

‘The drop does not mean a home’s value is ‘falling like a rock,’ He attributes the decline cheaper homes are selling because people cannot secure jumbo loans for higher-priced properties.’

‘December and January appear ‘especially poor,’ because the credit crunch, which started to reconcile, re-emerged when defaults created a scare.

the housing market as hasn’t curved, which would signify a rebound. ‘the market improving, we’ve reached the bottom, ‘we’re bumping.’

It makes so much more sense now - er - not!

Leigh ;)

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-26 17:39:59

I could afford a “lower priced” home in Florida but why would I want to live in a 2/1 shack with all the crime? Hence I am leaving Florida for a better location where a “lower priced” home is a nice middle class home with very low crime.

Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-26 18:00:33

Good for you ByeFL!

Watch out for PA though, I’m originally from ‘burbs of Pittsburgh. (beautiful state!)

Best,
Leigh

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Comment by Leighsong
2008-02-26 17:43:30

My apologies - a few less drivels.

“sales have reached abysmal levels.”

‘The drop does not mean a home’s value is falling, cheaper homes are selling because people cannot secure loans.

‘December and January the credit crunch re-emerged, defaults created a scare.

the housing market hasn’t curved, we’ve reached the bottom, ‘we’re bumping.’

Fun with words! (Disclaimer, not my words).

Leigh ;)

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-02-26 18:01:29

‘He describes the housing market as in an L-shape that hasn’t curved upward toward a U, which would signify a rebound. ‘As far as the market improving, we’ve reached the bottom,’ he said. ‘Now we’re simply bumping along the bottom.’

I do think the “recovery” will be L-shaped. Once we get to the bottom we’ll be there awhile. However, we’re still headed downward. With foreclosures exceeding sales and foreclosures still increasing, prices have a long way to go down still.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:18:49

If a “low-end” home is defined as one that is priced lower than the one next to it, without being smaller/crappier, then he is right. Lower-end (read: lower-priced) homes are selling, and that’s the only reason why prices are down. DUH!

 
Comment by cactus
2008-02-26 20:21:25

hes babbling , he needs to be slapped with a trout. I had just found an article written back in oct 2004 about how home prices would be 700K median in 2005 and then 10% a year upwards towards infinity. I had Printed it from the VCS back in the day when I was still a home owner in Moorpark CA, had a tree trimer featured in it who bought a starter home for 620K but planned to move up in a few years to somthing nice. 7 kids. I brought it to work but here in Phoenix nobody understands 600K starter homes and are just now getting the idea that these CA equity idiots caused a hugh distortion in Phoenix buying investment properties.

 
 
Comment by az_owner
2008-02-26 16:04:29

“Kaynak, whose contract contained no contingencies, said that, like many buyers, she was swept away in the moment.”

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

—————————

This one is just too easy. Putting 30 grand on the line for a $4500 TV? April Fools!

Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-26 16:12:38

And that’s list price. Who pays list price for a Plasma?
Lets see, $30K (because clearly she has lost at least that in equity), for a $4,500 (list) Plasma TV.
I would say that was a bad deal, but yet again, I’m not in realestate so I’m not really sure.

Comment by dude
2008-02-26 18:48:24

How dare you comment on a real estate professional’s deal making ability!

As Orangezillo said, “It would have taken a superior spirit to see this coming.”

My favorite quote EVER!

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-02-26 21:25:11

“I would say that was a bad deal”
- you should audition to be Howie Mandel’s stand-in!

 
 
Comment by jjinla
2008-02-26 16:22:26

‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

I believe the correct term is “moron”….

Comment by potential buyer
2008-02-26 16:31:46

Wouldn’t want to hire her, would ya? Giving away degrees that day.

 
Comment by Central Valley Guy
2008-02-26 16:41:03

I believe the comment read:
‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being and a GF and a FB.’

But hey, congratulations on that $34,500 plasma TV! (I wonder if she got to keep it?)

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-26 17:09:29

‘I wonder if she got to keep it?’

Oh sure. And you can bet that every night as they sit there watching flip this house, the memory of what they paid for it isn’t far away.

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Comment by dude
2008-02-26 18:51:49

It would get even funnier if she didn’t actually get the TV until closing, which is what I bet the truth is. That would make 40K for just the dream of plasma.

 
 
 
Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-26 16:43:39

I’m a doctor damn it!, oops wrong blog. sorry!

 
Comment by Blano
2008-02-26 16:47:05

Lol, took the word right out of my mouth.

 
Comment by salinasron
2008-02-26 18:35:47

“Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer”

Living proof that a degree and title do not go hand and hand with ability, competence, and professionalism.

 
Comment by R Hughes
2008-02-26 20:11:12

Not “moron” there now called “realtards” aka: really tards

 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-02-26 16:28:58

Yes sireee! Now that’s a combo package.
The Real Estate agent to chew your leg off; the lawyer to beat you to death with it; and the ‘human being’ to sit down and eat it.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 16:35:10

And what is with these morons that are perfectly willing to publicly admit to such stupidity. I guess she doesn’t worry about getting a job or having ANYONE google her and see her ignorance.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-02-26 16:47:54

Let me fix that for you, Ms. Kaynak:

“I’m also a GREEDY human being.”

Comment by HARM
2008-02-26 17:07:10

“Heads, I win, tails, you lose” –S.O.P. for a lawyer and Realturd. What’s so hard to figure out about that?

Comment by KenWPA
2008-02-26 18:07:10

I can’t believe that somebody would be dumb enough to let a $4,500 TV, be the deciding factor in purchasing a house for close to a Million Dollars.

I hope she enjoys that TV, and can still afford the cable bill with a Million Dollar Mortgage at todays Jumbo Rates.

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Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:03:08

Not surprised in the least… the home price and resulting mortgage is merely a number that people have been able to avoid taking responsibility for… well, until now..

 
 
 
 
Comment by Price Doubt Forever
2008-02-27 09:21:16

Ah, but you’re forgetting - the price of plasma TVs only goes up. If she hadn’t got it then, she would have been priced out forever.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-26 16:11:16

As there wasn’t a Wall St. section today, please forgive a quick O.T.

Where’s that Ambac bailout boyz? C’mon - it was such a big deal on Friday - was supposed to be Monday or Tuesday - what gives? Cold feet?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-26 17:11:16

The accountants and lawyers are trying to figure out how to move the Municipal contracts into Connie Lee (CCLIA)

 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2008-02-26 16:11:26

A classic quote from a former Crisp worker (and now providing a room to Crisp): “‘It’s not his fault that properties have lost values. That’s happened across the board,’ Stewart added. ‘There are over a thousand foreclosures in Kern County right now, and David didn’t have to do with hardly any of those.’”

Yeah, BUT, he DID have A LOT to do with the prices rising in the first place! Cheeze and crackers, people!

Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-26 16:15:45

LOL!!

FYI - WOTS is something is going down soon.

Comment by Blano
2008-02-26 16:48:50

That Keller Williams chick needs to be directed to your blogsite.

Comment by KenWPA
2008-02-26 18:11:51

Is this the equivalent of an NFL team being so desperate to win they bring someone like TO onto their team?

Real Estate Agency owner so greedy and so desperate, all she sees is how much Cole sold in the past and could care less about anything but getting the rainmaker in her office.

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Comment by M.B.A.
2008-02-26 16:36:04

what bad grammar….

“…and David didn’t have to do with hardly any of those.’”

 
Comment by salinasron
2008-02-26 18:50:20

C&C: does providing a room for Crisp mean his wife left him for greener pastures?

Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-26 18:56:42

She was still with him, based on the video at my blog (from Krab radio).

 
 
 
Comment by Brandon
2008-02-26 16:16:09

“Hans Johnson, associate director of research for the Public Policy Institute of California, said many factors were influencing housing statistics, including market psychology, decreased demand and the credit crunch.”

What about lack of income to make the mortgage?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 16:35:05

Funny how none of the MSM-quoted experts seem to perceive any connection between permanent incomes and home prices. All fundamental real estate demand is local.

 
Comment by JohnF
2008-02-26 16:43:56

That’s 1995-era thinking! Come on, you need to think outside of the box and accept the new real estate paradigm….income doesn’t matter anymore!

Comment by Brandon
2008-02-26 16:50:52

Sorry- my bad! If I changed my market psychology, I bet I could afford a more expensive house!

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-02-26 21:32:05

I don’t know about a lot of CA areas, but on the Central Coast, it seems as though a lot of asking prices are something like 300x monthly rent, or higher. Only an optimistic speculator would buy, even if the income were readily available.

Comment by lumpy
2008-02-26 21:46:32

here in san clemente weare at 400/450x grm with very little downward pressure on prices

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-02-26 23:18:42

In the case of the house I’m renting now, relative to the price it was listed at last year…363x monthly rent.

Yeah, sure, I’m in a hurry to buy here. Right.

 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-26 16:17:45

“‘My mission is to provide real estate clients the direction needed to make pragmatic and informed decisions that will enhance the value of the lives, their families, their communities and the environment, thus enabling them to make economic, energy-saving, and environmentally sustainable choices,’ Cole is quoted as saying.”

___________________________________

LMFAO!!!

How does this guy keep his brokers license?

Comment by Blano
2008-02-26 16:50:18

“Ecobroker” - HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! How ridiculous.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-02-26 17:12:11

Not really. Think of it as trendy, like Compostbroker.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-26 17:05:22

I thought it was funny how the BC is hounding this guy at his new job.

Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 19:39:06

And why would anyone hire him? Are you going to tell me that they never heard of him or the investigations? It’s the same thing as hiring a drug pusher as a babysitter.

Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 20:38:15

Simple… he’s a slick willy.. already onto his next scam..

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Comment by cactus
2008-02-26 20:27:52

They should, Ventura county trucks it solid waste ( sewage ) to somwhere outside of bakersfield sooooo I don’t think the central valley folks should cut VC any slack. Of course they did send some human RE waste in trade ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-02-26 16:19:36

“‘My mission is to provide real estate clients the direction needed to make pragmatic and informed decisions that will enhance the value of the lives, their families, their communities and the environment, thus enabling them to make economic, energy-saving, and environmentally sustainable choices,’ Cole is quoted as saying.”

What a load of horse squeeze this con-artist is/was peddling, but people bought into it and will again. More people more suckers, simple math.

 
Comment by friar john
2008-02-26 16:27:15

“Ventura County sales of existing single-family detached homes plunged to 195 in January, a 38.3 percent drop-off from 317 for the same month a year ago, according to CAR.”

“‘Good grief,’ said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, when told about the number of transactions. ‘They can’t get much lower than this.’”
______________________________________________________________

Oh Bill, silly Bill. It is still at a rate of 6 a day. Wait until it goes to 6 a week, and only then will it start truly playing havoc with your powers of forecasting. Where is charlie brown when you need him? Good Grief…got that mofoin’ right.

Comment by Central Valley Guy
2008-02-26 16:47:54

Now I dropped out of Math in my 3rd year of college (Real Analysis did me in), but I do believe it can go lower. I charted this on a graph, and hey, whaddaya know, IT CAN GO TO ZERO, YOU FOOL!!!!

Comment by Central Valley Guy
2008-02-26 16:49:17

FYI–the “fool” part was not directed at you friar john.

Comment by friar john
2008-02-26 17:05:48

Wouldn’t be the first time someone has called me a fool. :) Read “Gargantua and Pantagruel” and see whether friar john was a fool or if he took one too many sips from the breviary flask. You seem like a user of the Pantagruelion…what else would you do in the CV?

Note: How could you have dropped out of Math in your 3rd year? That is when the interesting stuff starts showing up. Haven’t you heard? The U.S. is running out of mathematicians and scientists.

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Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-26 21:55:59

damn, I think we’ve gone plaid!

 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-02-26 20:33:00

Santa Barbara has all the best economists it seems ? I think they all need to up their medication right about now.

 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-02-26 22:27:36

Sponsors of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project:

http://www.ucsb-efp.com/pdf/sponsorship/SB_Packet.pdf

 
Comment by tarred and feathered
2008-02-26 23:19:12

Bill Watkins next month will say ” AuGGGGh!!!!!!! I didn’t think Suzanne was going to pull the ball away again!”

 
 
Comment by calex
2008-02-26 16:28:40

“Kaynak, a Pleasanton resident, realty agent for 20 years and onetime lawyer,

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

It is a TV, right…. Not a car called plasma that has a TV in it. I just don’t get the high dollar TV crowd.

And whats with the Realtor, Lawyer, 30,000 deposit with no FU clause, and expensive TV?

Reminds me of the joke,
A Lawyer, Rabbi, and a Priest walk into a bar,
The bartender looks over at them and says,
“What is this…A Fooking Joke.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-02-26 17:06:45

‘And whats with the Realtor, Lawyer, 30,000 deposit with no FU clause, and expensive TV?’

She’s from California, they always pay over asking.

Comment by Central Valley Guy
2008-02-26 18:42:27

Oh that hurts. Because it’s true!

 
Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 19:51:43

Not all of us.

 
 
Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-02-26 20:54:55

It is a TV, right…. Not a car called plasma that has a TV in it. I just don’t get the high dollar TV crowd.

It took me a long time to figure it out. I would have figured people would have been worn out on big TV’s with the constant new models every year (47 goes to 50″, 50″ goes to 52″). I went to CES 2007 in Vegas and just was amazed at how much of the electronics industry.

Then it finally dawned on me - for decades the image of the ‘hang on your wall’ flat panel was a staple of “the future” in SciFi and even basic predictions of “world of tomorrow”.

People have been programmed to think it was their destiny. It is an object of desire that has been there without them knowing it.

Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-26 22:15:09

The fact that it’s flat is kinda cool. But I like the picture.

 
Comment by betamax
2008-02-26 23:44:16

That explains why I want to buy a killer android.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-27 09:41:04

AhHAHAHA! Funny!

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 16:33:14

“Move over McMansion, make room for the East Bay’s newer, cheaper house. KB Home will add two new scaled-down models to its new Antioch development, Almond Ridge, that will range from the low-to-mid-$300,000s.”

Still sounds unaffordable to many East Bay households…

Comment by M.B.A.
2008-02-26 16:39:03

gs-
you KNOW they’ll have to bring that down below 200…then they might see some action.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-26 17:55:14

“affordable” homes as low as $164k is *still* unaffordable for most people in south Florida(snowbirds/retirees don’t qualify, only low income workers do)

 
Comment by Tulpenwoerde
2008-02-26 17:57:45

If Almond Ridge is anywhere near Chocolate Gulch, I might drop by and take a look. Coconut Grove down the street would seal the deal.

Comment by aqius
2008-02-27 00:49:58

EXCEPTIONALLY good comments on this thread . . . been laughing non-stop for 10 minutes. much more & I need to change my truss.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:29:25

Besides, the question is not just “Can I pay that?”, but also “Is it worth it?”. It’s not a better deal just because it’s cheaper.

Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2008-02-26 18:56:08

Words worth quoting to my “want to buy” friends.

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2008-02-26 21:53:19

I wonder how long detached houses in Silicon Valley can stick at $800k+ now that there’s a full half-million dollar discount for moving to the outer East Bay.

Comment by SiO2
2008-02-27 09:06:19

I wouldn’t take it. 3 hr RT commute each day? Plus gas expenses. I’d rather live in a smaller, more expensive house closer in. But there will be some downward pressure for sure, as some will make that trade. Particularly if they can work at home one or two days per week.

 
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 16:34:04

AP
House Lawmakers Consider Bailout Plan
Tuesday February 26, 5:56 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
House Lawmakers Consider $15 Billion Mortgage Bailout Plan As Housing Troubles Continue
——————————-
drop meet bucket.

Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 17:06:47

By Jim Brumm
1 hour, 13 minutes ago
WILMINGTON, North Carolina (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday that a weakened U.S. economy was a bigger worry than higher inflation, suggesting a willingness to lower interest rates further as the central bank tackles “difficult times.”
——————-
wheat meat “limit up”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 17:43:22

UPDATE 2-Senate foreclosure bill draws W.House veto threat
Tue Feb 26, 2008 5:56pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2637728620080226

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 17:48:52

1) It is quite unclear to me how the cost of guaranteeing mortgages in the current environment could be anything other than quite expensive. Who gets to insure the mortgages, and how will they fund the insurance?

2) How likely are the “guaranteed” events (mortgage default on underwater loans) to occur?

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8V29JLG0.htm

Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:35:34

“‘If the economy continues to be a problem, you’ll probably have more people jumping onto this,’ said Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J., a member of the financial services panel. Garrett is skeptical of the idea, saying it would reward investors and borrowers who made bad decisions and merely provide incentive for others to do so in the future.”

I share Garrett’s skepticism, but have one more thing to add. If the economy continues to be a problem, then where will we all get the money to pay for this plan?

 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 18:50:00

I have a sneaking suspicion that while plumbing the depths of housing. some folks might be missing out on some really interesting bubble blowing by Bernanke and Brothers FED.

If everyone hasnt figured it out yet..Housing is the worst investment you can ever make, I suppose thats why Zell has come out and called a bottom….do what he does not what he says, same rules apply to Bennie and the FED. Keep buying what China is buying…you aint ever gonna overcome your own money.

Its all bubbles people.

 
 
Comment by friar john
2008-02-26 16:37:20

I was out perusing some houses this past weekend and came across one that is looking to sell for a cool 1.9mil. Previous sold back in 2006 for 1.2mil. Asked the realtor how much the person spent on upgrades. He lists off the various improvements: central air, minor remodel of kitchen, tile on the stairs, etc. and the realtor ends with “he won’t tell me how much he spent”.

Is it me or do you find it strange that nobody seemingly wants to come up with the receipts or work orders for home improvements that would justify the price appreciation? I keep all my receipts for work done on my car just in case I have to sell it. I could at least justify my selling price if I show good faith in maintaining the vehicle throughout the years. As I like to say, “you can’t con a con man”. :)

Comment by sunsetbeachguy
2008-02-26 17:59:45

I think the saying is you can’t con an honest man.

Comment by friar john
2008-02-26 18:58:17

If anything, this blog and examples from the MSM that ben provides should have showed you for the last few years that plenty of honest people were conned. The financially astute con women and men on this blog didn’t. That could be as a result of life experience (conned before), common sense, and/or knowledge of human nature when it comes to money.

Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 20:45:30

Actually, I think many honest people conn themselves into false beliefs about their lives, ego’s and networth etc and let their house do their bidding for them.. This country is absolutely crawling with honest people waiting and wanting to be conned into a different life..

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Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:37:21

How do you know he really had the work done if he can’t show the receipts?

Comment by friar john
2008-02-26 18:52:24

Exactamundo Big V. People pull shiatsu out of their @$$ all the time. Trust no one…especially when money, sometimes hundreds of thousand of dollars, is on the line.

Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 19:56:17

Even if he could show me receipts, who’s to say I wanted the upgrades he spent the money on - maybe they’re not to my liking. Why should I have to pay for them? There’s too much supply for these clowns to be play these type of games anymore. He tried a flip and I’m not going to pay for it.

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Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-26 22:18:16

Yeah, most people’s idea of an upgrade is absurd. Brass, glass and granite. And those ridiculous kitchens that look like a bordello at Versaille. blech… the bigger the kitchen the more likely they heat up Costco dinners.

 
Comment by Meshell
2008-02-27 12:05:04

This is definitely true in my circle of friends! We cook a lot from scratch in a tiny (but oddly functional) 1950s kitchen, but when we have dinner at some of our friends’ very expensive houses, we eat a lot of takeout. The plastic bags do look lovely against the granite ;).

 
 
 
 
Comment by Sailor
2008-02-26 20:10:15

“”I keep all my receipts for work done on my car just in case I have to sell it. I could at least justify my selling price if I show good faith in maintaining the vehicle throughout the years. As I like to say, “you can’t con a con man”. “”

I am looking for a used car for my daughter now. I would love to run across someone who can actually justify how they are pricing the vehicle. Nothing I hate more than going to look at a vehicle and that isnt even washed or cleaned inside and they want more than bluebook. Buy the way since when did Kelly bluebook become the word of god and not just a suggested value.

 
Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-02-26 21:00:30

I want home builders to show photos at various stages of construction. I mean how much does it cost to pay a 16 year old with a digital camera to come out once a day for 2 hours and snap 3 or 4 photos while they are building 2 or 4 houses at a time.

I want to see what kind of work they did behind those walls, dates on how long it sat, etc.

 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-26 16:37:55

“‘The homeowner’s saying, ‘I’m going out of this house feet first. I’m happy with the neighborhood. I want to make this house exactly what I want it to be,’ Baker said. ‘They’re saying, ‘I’m going to spend my equity and make it my own little Taj Mahal.’”

Right!! This is Baker’s personal pipe-dream that allows him to sleep at night (in addition to the hardcore tranquilizers). I’d really like to see his books and find out just how many “Taj Mahal” conversions he’s contracted over the last 6 months. Who was it that first used the “bull-sh*t buffet” again? Well this dude is serving up quite a feast!

Comment by Blano
2008-02-26 16:52:16

That was good ol’ NYCityBoy, IIRC.

 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-02-26 17:19:44

How do you spend your equity without selling the house? This is just another piece of evidence in support of my hypothesis that most US residents can’t distinguish among gifts, loans, and income.

 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-02-26 17:22:01

Ex, a good friend/small time home builder was given a raison of crap for bidding a new-home construction job as low as he did last November. His competitors thought he was cutting his own feet off. Fast forward today. He (out of a group of 6 builders in his area) is the only one working. The rest are idle and one is about dead.
The bubble is eating the lame, the slow and the greedy.

 
 
Comment by Wilson
2008-02-26 16:39:49

Hey guys,
On the previous Arizona/Nevada post today, there was a great discussion about when we see the bottom. Someone mentioned the formula: 10x yearly rent = price. Just curious, where does this rule of thumb come from? Anyone have any websites or articles or studies that show an analysis of this?
Much appreciated!
Wilson

Comment by Climber
2008-02-26 17:00:18

During the depression rents went down along with prices. If it was easy to pick a bottom anyone could get rich. If every one were rich…

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-02-26 17:49:39

It’s a quick ‘rule of thumb’ for whether a purchase is reasonable, from an investor’s standpoint.

If you buy a 100k house that gives you 10k in rent a year, and you deduct 2-4% for upkeep/taxes/insurance (depending on where you are, this can be significantly higher), you’re getting a 6%+ return on your investment. If you wind up with it unrented for 1-2 month a year, you wind up still with 4%+ return on investment. Buying a house at more than about 10 times yearly rent is a losing proposition, as you could invest your money for the same return with none of the hassle in CDs.

Of course, rents generally go up unless the economy of an area collapses, so ’scraping by’ with 2-3% ROI isn’t horrible if you’re a believer in the local economy. And if you have to finace part of this ‘investment’, it’s easy to go into negative returns. And for the last few years, people have been doing just that. They’ve been financing Interest Only loans to buy a house and STILL hemmoraging money, because they were banking on short term appreciation for a profit, not actually renting the property in a cash-flow positive manner. So the 10x yearly rent is roughly when it makes sense to buy it for cash and have it be a cashflow investment, and not a price speculation play.

From a ‘becoming a home owner’ point of view, most people don’t look at it from nearly the same point of view, and consequently are willing to pay more than an investor would for the same house. The investor wants a return worth the effort and risk. The home owner wants to paint his house whatever color he wants and, in the dark dark ages of, oh, seven years ago, fix his housing costs to a certain extent.

If you want to become a landlord, stick hard and fast to the 10x annual rent, or 120x monthly rent rule. If you’re buying for yourself, you can give yourself a little slack. But avoid the more recent 20-25x yearly rent prices. Those will make you cry.

 
Comment by Jake
2008-02-26 17:56:09

Whether 10x yearly rent = price is a bottom is debatable. But here is how to derive the 100x monthly rent multiple. Risk-free capital (government bonds) can be expected to pay about 2% over the rate of inflation, in the long run. Right now, the TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities) rate is below that, but these are special times. Expect the rate to return to 2% in the future. Real-estate is a risky investment and therefore should pay about 4% risk premium, over the long run. So real estate should return about 6% over the rate of inflation for someone paying all cash. You can boost this rate with leverage. Expenses for a landlord with no mortgage run about 50% (vacancy, insurance, repairs, property tax, true as opposed to IRS depreciation, etc). Putting all this together we get the following:

Net rent/purchase price = 6%
Net rent = 50% x gross rent
50% x gross rent = 6% x purchase price
8.3 x gross yearly rent = purchase price
100 x gross month rent = purchase price

In a depressed market (cleveland, detroit), you can easily see gross rent multiples as low as 50x. I recall seeing multiples like that in Dallas back in the early ’80’s. Inner city housing often has multiples as low as 25x. That is, you pay back the cost of the housing with 25 months of rent before expenses, or 50 months of rent after expenses.

Comment by implosion
2008-02-26 22:16:10

Apt sellers where I am are in the 10x+ yearly GRM (120x+ mo) asking zone. Numbers just aren’t cutting it with 20% down. Lots of res income for sale and sitting at that level.

 
 
 
Comment by Spucky
2008-02-26 16:51:49

“Kaynak, whose contract contained no contingencies, said that, like many buyers, she was swept away in the moment.”

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

And this human being was paid for advising other folks. How sweet. How wonderfully, utterly sweet. Karma is a beautiful thing.

Comment by Cooper
2008-02-26 17:57:43

This couldn’t have happened to a nicer person. I work in Pleasanton, I might have to look her up!!!

Classic, this is just getting better and better.

 
Comment by Cooper
2008-02-26 18:01:14
Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:43:56

Is she missing her front tooth?

Comment by Steve W
2008-02-26 19:18:42

Thank you, Big V, thank you, as I spit up my vodka-lemonade :)

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-27 09:47:10

‘…thank you, as I spit up my vodka-lemonade.’

Ah, the breakfast of champions.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by crisrose
2008-02-26 16:57:50

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

And a greedy dumba$$ to boot!

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-02-26 19:36:48

Wow, hasn’t everyone noticed that retailers are always having a last chance sale and than the next week it’s another last chance sale .

Creating urgency is the classic way for sales people to get a party to buy . For God sakes ,never buy a home in a hurry ,it’s to big of a purchase . And ,never trust what a real estate sales person will say about comps, without doing your own homework on it also . While I have known some really nice honorable sales people in my life ,the bulk I have known will lie lie lie to make a deal .

Comment by arroyogrande
2008-02-27 00:01:35

“Creating urgency is the classic way for sales people to get a party to buy”

Buy now, or be priced out forever.

 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2008-02-26 17:01:00

“In September, federal agents raided 13 Bakersfield offices and homes associated with the Crisp & Cole Real Estate company and its founders, the more experienced Cole and his partner, 28-year-old David Crisp

It’s old news but isn’t it great to know that even the FBI are showing up in gangs to get into the RE market. I hope that agent DeMaris isn’t too angry because she OVERPAID for that 3br/2bath in 2006…because she carried a REAL BIG GUN on her hip and a chip on her shoulder :)

 
Comment by potential buyer
2008-02-26 17:05:22

Foreclosure bill got vetoed. It would ’slow’ the recovery of the market…………cnnmoney.com

Comment by Pen
2008-02-26 17:24:35

“The Mortgage Bankers Association, which is lobbying against the measure, says it would hurt borrowers by requiring “higher interest rates and larger down payments to offset the risk” of bankruptcy court intervention on behalf of some homeowners.”

larger down payments?…yeah, like try 100% down….

Comment by Tom
2008-02-26 17:33:09

It wouldn’t hurt borrowers, it would hurt the members of the Mortgage Bankers Association by requiring them to make loans that people can afford to pay. In essence, it protects them from themselves. I love how they try and spin this shit.

 
Comment by Thomas
2008-02-26 19:11:04

This can’t be said enough: Loan modification amounts to a subsidy of [stupid] past homebuyers at the expense of potential future ones. The measure needs to be vetoed, and if there’s even the remotest possibility of override, someone needs to do a Cromwell vs. the Rump Parliament on Congress’ sorry arse.

 
 
Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-26 17:36:56

I tell you. As soon as the democrats win the white house, bailouts will be coming out on a daily basis. Thank you Pres. Bush for stopping one on its tracks! Have freaking judges adjust the terms of mortgage loans in BK court? what are you nuts people!
These democrats in congress are the worst! They absolutely refuses to let people face up to thier mistakes.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:46:04

Obama is against that idea.

Comment by Thomas
2008-02-26 19:14:11

If true, bully for him. Even if he does dress like an Oompa Loompa.

Seriously, how could he have forgotten the Twelfth Commandment of Political Campaigns: Thou Shalt Not Dress Up In Funny Outfits. No kilts, no lederhosen, no dresses (listen up, Rudy!), no tank helmets, no Woody Allenesque giant sperm costumes (Mr. Kerry, that would be you)…nuttin’.

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Comment by OCBear
2008-02-26 20:37:07

Course Obama is against it. Just like all the rest Goldman Sachs is his main contributor. Goldman Sachs and the 4 Horseman of the Financial Apocaplypse have already bought the White House. Now we just have to decide what color and race.

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Comment by OCBear
2008-02-26 21:14:35

errr Gender and Race…

I too think it is good Bush and Obama are against the Cramdown Bailout. I have no illusions as to why though.

 
 
 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-02-26 17:57:11

Technically, it’s not vetoed yet… it still hasn’t been passed.

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-02-26 21:47:53

Quite a number of my borrower clientele have gone through bankruptcy proceedings while owing me money. In each case, the borrower has reaffirmed his/her commitment to keep making payments to me, and to exclude my security interest from the bankruptcy proceeding. (Most of these bankruptcies arose from medical bills IIRC.) Any bill allowing bankruptcy judges to change the terms of my mortgage notes would make me very reluctant to write any new mortgage notes, regardless of the apparent quality of the debtor. My lending is absolutely based on sufficient security interest.

 
 
Comment by Pen
2008-02-26 17:09:09

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’

From Van Halen….

There is just enough Christ in me
To make me feel almost guilty
Is that why God made us breed
To make us see we’re Humans Being
You break this, I’ll break all that
You break my balls with all your crap
Spread your disease like lemmings breeding
That’s what makes us Humans Being
Shine on, Shine on
Shine on, Shine on
Some low life flat head scum infects
The sickness in his eyes reflects
You wonder why your life is screaming
Wonder why your Humans Being
Shine on, Shine on
Shine on, Shine on
Humans
Humans Being
We’re just Humans, Humans Being
That’s what makes us
Humans Being….

 
Comment by smiling_in SD
2008-02-26 17:20:28

“Kaynak, a Pleasanton resident, realty agent for 20 years and onetime lawyer, is well-acquainted with the home-building industry. She said her house wasn’t even built when she tried to cancel the contract last summer. Furthermore, she said she has represented several new-home buyers in the past who backed out of contracts, even at the last minute, and got back their deposits.”

“‘In each case, each builder said, ‘We’re not in the business of keeping people’s deposits, we’re in the business of building homes. We would rather keep their good will,’ Kaynak recalled. ‘I remember those words.’”

What a stupid be-at**ch….you signed a contract, ….if the builder wanted to cancel, you’d be screaming for damages.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 17:38:39

“The cost of prefabricated granite has dropped considerably from the building boom highs of four years ago, as much as 50 percent or more, said Cheryl Tarido, a sales associate at Medimer Marble & Granite.”

“‘In our particular county, people are holding materials,’ said Gordy DeNecochea, a former administrator at the state’s Department of Housing and Community Development. ‘The prices will come down. They can’t afford to hang onto the inventory.’”

Speculators in granite counter tops seem to have caught themselves a falling knife.

Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 20:02:31

I can’t stop laughing at this one. Who is possibly left that wants them that doesn’t already have the damn granite counter tops? They are so 2005.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-26 22:23:12

more like 1999, that’s when my sis got the GC as I rolled my eyes.

 
Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-02-27 00:32:54

You are not seeing the future: Every house will be upgraded with them.

Think of it like a house without electrical wiring in the 1800’s… all of them need upgraded ;)

Comment by SiO2
2008-02-27 09:12:55

What is better than granite? It’s my personal favorite but please educate me. From a practical perspective:
Tile: hard to clean the grout. I have this now, it stinks.
Formica: Can’t put anything hot on it. Scratches
Corian: can’t put anything hot on it. At least it is repairable
Butcher block: gets mold in the cracks over time.
Stainless steel: Actually this is pretty practical, but looks a little too industrial to me.
Quartz/ Silestone: probably the most practical. It does look like granite so if you don’t like the look of granite you would not like this either.

so seriously, what is better than granite?

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Comment by Meshell
2008-02-27 12:10:09

Granite countertops are the “avocado appliances” of the future. I don’t get them (or the strangely industrial looking stainless appliances!), but I’m not really a gourmet chef either.

 
Comment by SiO2
2008-02-27 12:17:44

Meshell,
so, what is better? I am considering a kitchen remodel. Granite is the front runner, mainly due to practicality, but I’m interested in other possibilities.
As was stated above, the cost is low too. an 8 ft by 26 inch slab is around $300. So the material cost for a normal/smallish kitchen is like $1000 or less. Once I consider labor and the general hassle, the price difference between this and other options is not really significant.
And it seems like the best option in terms of practicality. Tile can look nice when new, but once it’s used for a while and oil/etc starts to collect in the grout, not so nice anymore.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by dude
2008-02-26 18:08:39

http://avpress.com/n/26/0226_s11.hts

“PALMDALE - Expectations of a $1.6 million decrease in projected sales tax revenue prompted the City Council to approve a number of spending cuts in the 2007-08 municipal budget.”

Multiply this budget cut number across the thousands of cities nationwide. This is just another factor adding to the downward spiral.

I noted that most of the proposed monies to be cut were for infrastructure. How long can that bright idea last without significant repercussions?

Comment by Thomas
2008-02-26 19:15:31

Good thing it never freezes in Palmdale. Otherwise they might get potholes.

Oh, wait….

 
 
Comment by smiling_in SD
2008-02-26 18:10:07

“Kaynak, whose contract contained no contingencies, said that, like many buyers, she was swept away in the moment.”

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

hmmmm…noo actually, you’re not a human being..you’re a “realestate agent and a lawyer” :)

 
Comment by pathetic
2008-02-26 18:14:03

Here’s a little different perspective in Hawaii. They are generally behind the times but it looks as though the media there continue to be shills for the RE industry or just can’t comprehend all the factors involved in the market. The headline is “January’s foreclosure rate hints at easing”. http://starbulletin.com/2008/02/26/business/story01.html One month does not a trend make.

This market is susceptible to the same market forces as the west coast but the so called “experts” always refute it even in the face of the trends in the rest of the country. And apparently Hawaii’s RE personnel are no more astute than Gary Watts and his ilk. In fact check this link out. “Lone Ranger” and/or “Reel Estatement” seem even more incompetent or dishonest.
http://www.topix.net/forum/source/honolulu-star-bulletin/TUKLMCG1D9LLLO4H2#lastPost

 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:14:10

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

Ya know, what people really need today is not just more maps, but also calendars, because they don’t all know when all the holidays are, and they might not even know how to find the really good surf spots even if they did know the holidays, but some of them aren’t totally holidays, but just important days like April Fool’s day and National Bean-Planting day. That’s where I’m at.

Comment by Rental Watch
2008-02-26 18:42:21

My wife’s an attorney. Whenever she signs anything, she reads it three times, crosses out anything she doesn’t agree to, and makes damn sure she knows what she’s signing.

You’d get a kick out of seeing her at places with “form documents”…she’ll mark up the ski rental agreement…she’ll mark up other standard forms. I love it.

Why?

Because as an attorney, she expects to be held to a higher standard, and she should be held to a higher standard. These people are ridiculous.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-26 18:36:55

When the comps matter (from ziprealty.com):

10214 SIENNA HILLS DR, SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Bedrooms: 6
Full Baths: 4
Partial Baths: 1
Square Feet: 3,823
Lot Size: N/A
Year Built: 2005
Listing Date: 10/06/07
On Market: 143 days
Type: SFR
Status: ACTIVE
MLS #: 076079493

Description
Huge price reduction! Elegant 4s ranch davidson home with 6 br/5.4ba.Downstairs guest suite.Tons of upgrades,must see to appreciate.Huge private backyard with no neighbors behind.Custom neutral paint.Kitchen w/huge island and large pantry w/pullout drawers.See supplement for more….
ZipRealty Price Track:

Price Reduced: 11/30/07 — $899,900 to $869,900

On Market: 143 days

Price per square foot = $869,900/3,823 = $228

Clients who viewed this home also viewed:

15011 PALOMINO MESA RD
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Beds/Baths: 6/3 Sq.Ft: 3,273
$725,000
Price per square foot = $725,000/3,273 = $222

17068 SILVER PINE ROAD
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Beds/Baths: 5/5 Sq.Ft: 3,628
$720,000
Price per square foot = $720,000/3,628 = $198

17072 SILVER PINE ROAD
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Beds/Baths: 5/3 Sq.Ft: 3,431
$699,888
Price per square foot = $699,888/3,431 = $204

Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 19:00:11

those figures indicate some really good prices on triplex units. Seriously, stick 3 families in those with say 6, 30k wage earners (180*3)? and you’ve got some workable numbers… who says the immigration debate is dead in the water.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-02-26 18:40:02

FRAUD ALERT ..off topic but I thought I would post this .

A 95 year old man I know got a check for five thousand (with a letter) claiming he won a Canada Lottery for $125,000.00 . Apparently he did enter a contest at the local hardware store ,(found out later the crooks were hanging out at WalMart and other stores promoting this drawing in which they give you a ticket and get your name and address .

The crooks than contact you by mail and claim you won the contest and they send you a good check for 5 thousand saying that you need to give $2,465.00 of the 5k back to the tax agent for Canada .The whole idea is that the crooks will than get information ,after you cash the check . It’s a identity thief ring ,and they get peoples confidence by sending them this original 5k ,that’s a real check ,with the promise that the remaining amount of the price winnings will be paid once you pay the taxes required .

Now I don’t know how anyone could fall for this,but the fraud hot line said that real lotteries do not require any money from you and they do not send you a letter stating that you have to pay part of the money from the partial check for taxes before you get the big check for your so-called winning the lottery . Many of these scams state they are a foreign lottery so they can confuse suckers with bizarre requirement for tax payments etc.
When I had to break it to this old guy that he didn’t win this lottery ,and he needed to turn the check over to the police, or he might become a identity thief victim ,he was sad . Apparently these crooks are picking on the elderly who can be very trusting of people . So ,alert your grandmother and grandfather ,or even your mother and father . Apparently the identity thief people are getting desperate .

Comment by Big V
2008-02-26 18:54:57

What kind of a low-life goes around picking on old people? The guy is 95 years old, and he has to spend time being sad because of these creeps. Really ticks me off.

Comment by Wickedheart
2008-02-26 19:42:13

Well, Big V you would love my mother because she likes to f@ck with these people. She’s 80, bored and loves to play the dottering old fool. One of her favorite tricks is making them repeat themselves over and over. “Could you explain that again?” and “excuse me but I didn’t hear you” I could tell you more but I don’t want to give up all her tricks. We call her “the granny beast”.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-02-26 20:22:58

Wickedheart,

I love your mother. She is my heroine.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-27 10:05:14

Yes, I’m impressed, too. Please change your mind and divulge more of her tricks, so I can print them off and save them to use as a primer when I get old.

 
 
 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-02-26 19:06:56

Are you *sure* that’s how the scam works?

There’s a similar scam (Craigslist list warnings about it) where you get a doctored Cashier’s check that looks real. You deposit it. At first, it clears (the account # is valid), and you think everything’s OK

Then a couple of weeks later, the bank will tell you that the check wasn’t good in the first place and rolls back the deposit.

So the crooks get the $2465.00 and you’re left holding the bag.

Here’s a government website that explains the scams

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/ADVISORY/2007-1.html

This is scam #3: Unexpected Windfall.

The crooks take advantage of the fact that banks are required to clear a check in a certain amount of time, so they do, but can roll back the transaction if the check turns out bad.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-02-26 19:53:45

Yes , I did read about the scam your talking about ,but now these crooks are trying to get information from the check that the victim writes for the taxes ,before they bounce the check .

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-02-26 21:21:56

Be careful of the EBAY PRIVATE AUCTION SCAM

They will contact you about an item on ebay or Criagslist, and then send to to a private auction ebay page asking you for some information or is this the item… ..totally fake, then they want you to log in with your id and password to see the item…

 
 
Comment by Anthony
2008-02-26 18:58:23

“If Washington gets off its high “moral hazard” horse and moves to support housing prices, investors will return in a rush,” –Bill Gross, February 26, 2008

And to think some on this board actually idolized this guy a couple of years ago. What a fraud.

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080226/REG/517662617/1023/OTHERVIEWS

Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 19:09:06

Ive been reading here for some time, and I simply cant recall anyone formulating anything but poor remarks for PimpCo.

Comment by Mole Man
2008-02-26 20:33:52

Actually, very early on Pimco was one of the first to be calling bubble and was briefly lauded here. Then when the bust started they started coming up with stuff like this.

 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-26 19:17:42

Move to support house prices? Kind of like supporting steel prices? Like some foreign country is going to start shipping us cheap houses and undercut the domestic market? Sheesh.

 
Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:35:28

“He also said that investor confidence would return if the government would step in to fix the housing market. If Washington gets off its high “moral hazard” horse and moves to support housing prices, investors will return in a rush,” he said.

Piss off Gross.. the turds, like yourself, who helped create this mess are the only ones who skin should be involved in any sort of fix… You want to maintain inflated housing prices ? Alright then, go ahead and use your 120B to buy a bunch.. otherwise, piss off..

 
Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:43:42

Piss off Gross.. You want to support housing prices ? Leave Washington out of this and use your own $120B to buy a bunch of overpriced homes.. put your money where your mouth is or shut the he__ up little man..

 
 
Comment by SiO2
2008-02-26 19:24:22

There was an ad in the SJ Mercury today that Silicon Valley Hummer is closing. Truly, this is the 7th sign.

Comment by txchick57
2008-02-26 20:11:45

Remember this a few years ago?

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2005/11/hummer-overfloweth.html

I actually can’t believe that I do and that I could find it this easily.

Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:17:11

Now if we can find a pic of a hummer with some granite tile strapped to the roof with a boob enhanced Realtor or FB as the driver the image and historic documentation would be complete…

 
Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:18:53

test

 
Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:21:21

test sat… okay,

We only need to find a pic of a hummer with some granite tile strapped to the roof and a boob enhanced Realtor or FB as the driver.. then the image and historic documentation would be complete..

 
Comment by matt
2008-02-26 22:53:00

Did you see the mar 1200 spx puts? 36k contracts today.

 
 
 
Comment by Tokyo Renter - ex Los Angeles Renter
2008-02-26 19:52:29

Hi, A friend forwarded this to me and I thought it would be of interest.

U.S. Home Foreclosures Jump 90% as Mortgages Reset (Update5)

Comment by BubbleViewer
2008-02-26 20:02:30

I’d settle for nice 3DK in Shimo-Kitazawa, within walking distance of the okonomiyaki restaurants.

Comment by Troy
2008-02-27 03:14:02

Shakujii, Kichijoji, Hiroo

lived there in the 90s and would move back in a heartbeat if I could . . .

 
 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2008-02-26 20:13:22

I can’t but wonder if you removed HELOCs and refi’s would there have been a bubble? How much of this mess is really people that just sucked the equity dry?

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-26 20:15:21

if you manage to survive the coming onslaught of equity, bond, money, employment meltdown your gonna be ok….settle in. This is the painful part.

Comment by az_lender
2008-02-26 21:58:15

voz, when should I sell my bonds issued by the Federal governments of Australia, Brazil, Iceland, and New Zealand? and why should I expect their bonds to melt down?

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2008-02-26 20:26:49

Aren’t these the same DataQuick numbers that were reported almost two weeks ago? Why is the Mercury News reporting them today as if they are new?

 
Comment by matthew
2008-02-26 21:07:33

“‘Were they flashy and eccentric? Absolutely. Did they flaunt their success? Sure. And that’s starting to look like a pretty bad marketing strategy,’ Stewart said.

Disagree Stewy boy… I think this was a brilliant marketing strategy.. C&C knew their clientele very well and this was what they wanted to see… My guess is Crisp didn’t date a cheerleader or the prom queen in high school… just a wild guess..

 
Comment by Zack
2008-02-26 22:11:11

“The California median was $430,370 last month, a 21.9 percent drop from the $441,220 a year ago, according to CAR.”

OK, I guess I may be missing something but it seems to me they either have the percentage wrong or a mistake in last year’s number. If the current median is $430,370 and the drop has been 21.9% from last year, then I think last year must have been about $551,049. Or not. My head is spinning.

 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-02-26 22:57:57

***OFF TOPIC***
OT - but timely.
If your traditional investments have disappointing you, there may be a silver lining:
http://tinyurl.com/2pfsyx

 
Comment by measton
2008-02-26 23:25:09

This bloomberg article made me laugh. It seems no one trusts the monolines or the rating agencies anymore. I wonder why??

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aC1RK7wnHMdU&refer=home

 
Comment by Crush
2008-02-26 23:33:16

“‘It was on April 1, and if you didn’t write it that day you would miss out on the $4,500 plasma TV,’ she recalled. ‘Yes, I’m an agent and a lawyer, but I’m also a human being.’”

Ladies and gentlemen…this quote is a hbb gem…

I am not an animal…I am a human being…

crush

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-13 15:32:30

test2
test2

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-13 23:04:43

test crab

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-13 23:07:55

test Lobster

 
Comment by WaitingforREO
2008-03-13 23:09:16

 
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