February 28, 2008

The Foreclosure Situation Is Affecting Prices In California

Bloomberg reports from California. “A muddy gravel road winds uphill through a redwood forest to Jake Terhune’s $985,000 home just outside of Geyserville, in the heart of California’s Sonoma County wine region. Terhune, a self-employed cabinetmaker put down $100,000 and agreed to pay about $6,900 a month for 30 years to buy the three-bedroom house in 2006. Things started going wrong almost immediately after he moved in. Demand for Terhune’s custom cabinetry dried up. His business’s income, which had been about $20,000 a month, plunged 50 percent.”

“After making his first payment, he fell behind. Unable to persuade Ameriquest Mortgage Co. to modify his loan, he stopped paying and ignored calls threatening to take his home. By the summer of 2007, Ameriquest, once the biggest home lender to people with credit problems, put the loan up for sale.”

“‘I was working on two houses, but they got foreclosed,’ Terhune says. ‘If my customers can’t pay what they owe me, the mortgage company can’t get what I owe them.’”

“Terhune was in trouble almost right from the start. When his second $6,910.89 mortgage payment came due, he didn’t have the money.”

“‘I called AMC and told them I only had $5,000,’ Terhune says, referring to Ameriquest Mortgage Co., which is no longer doing business. ‘I asked them if we could work something out, but they were not interested,’ he says.”

“The following month, Terhune owed $14,000; he says he had $10,000. ‘I had worked on a house but that house got foreclosed, so I’m not going to get paid,’ he says.”

“A mortgage collector told him not to send any money unless he could pay the entire amount, he says. By the time National Asset Direct bought the loan and offered a plan to reduce his payments, Terhune was $70,000 in arrears. Even with the easier terms, he missed the December payment.”

“‘I’m keeping good faith and trying to catch up,’ he says. ‘I’m flying by the seat of my pants.’”

The Record Searchlight. “When it comes to the sagging real estate market, Siskiyou County is not immune. Local real estate agents and sellers are taking a hit. Realtor Shelley Sarason (who) specializes in sales in Mount Shasta and Lake Shastina, knows the pain.”

“‘We didn’t have enough homes for sale in ‘05,’ she said. ‘Lots in Lake Shastina were selling like crazy, and we had a few bidding wars on houses that were priced to sell.’”

“Season Johnson, a loan officer in Mount Shasta, thinks the change began as early as 2002. ‘In ‘02 real estate began to really appreciate. More people began investing, and Wall Street did, too. More money led to more loan programs and some people began upgrading to bigger homes while others were getting into the market and often into homes they couldn’t afford in the real world,’ she said.”

“The county has seen fewer foreclosures, however, than other areas of the state. Augusta Meyers, owner of Augusta Meyers Realty in Mount Shasta, had some advice for first-time buyers: ‘Remember, you are not buying a dream home. It’s your dream to own a home.’”

“The last time the median sales price in Shasta County was lower was in January 2005. January home sales in Shasta County dipped to their lowest level in the 14 years DataQuick has tracked the area.”

“‘It’s almost like a bunch of people are standing on the side of a pool and waiting for somebody to jump in,’ lender Ken Lawrence said of the state of the market.”

“Joe Rodola, a Redding credit counselor who leads monthly first-time home buyer classes, believes prices are still falling because consumers are still scared.”

“‘I think it’s generally created by the national media, they report another 100 homes foreclosed today, and it’s oh my gosh,’ Rodola said. ‘The other side of it is people still don’t want to get one of these bad (subprime) loans. I tell people they’re not making them anymore.’”

“Redding Realtor Ron Largent said home prices rose so sharply during the boom years that the fall has been long and hard. ‘Is it going to drop more? That will be a question of supply and demand. If buyers surface, then prices will hold,’ said Largent.”

The Telegraph. “Quick, where’s the foreclosure rate higher – upper-middle class Folsom or low-upper class El Dorado Hills? It’s higher in suave El Dorado Hills, significantly higher – by 50 percent.”

“‘We’re still going to see foreclosures increase, as long as people can’t get out of adjustable-rate mortgages,’ said mortgage lender Barbara Ott, in Placerville. ‘Banks are eating hundreds of mortgages.’”

“‘A lot of ’stated-income’ programs are gone,’ she said. ‘Lending limits on stated-income are dropping — instead of 80 percent of (home) value, it’s now 65 percent.’”

“Also disappearing is a lending habit of loaning to borrowers who had proven they were bad risks. ‘The sub-prime market is gone,’ said Greg Clines of Century Oak Mortgage of Folsom. ‘There will be more ’short’ sales and foreclosures in the next one and a half years. They won’t be a majority of houses offered, but they will be a majority of houses actually selling.’”

The Daily Pilot. “After watching the foreclosed home down the street slowly devolve into a state of dilapidation, Mary Dinius said she was forced to take matters into her own hands. The Mesa North resident paid her gardener an extra $40 to mow her former neighbor’s lawn on Cheyenne Street.”

“Dinius didn’t know the home’s former residents, but it is only one of many foreclosed homes in the Mesa North/Del Mar neighborhood that have slid into a state of disrepair.”

“Costa Mesa real estate agent Larry Weichman said the neighborhood reflects a growing pattern: the rise of neglected, foreclosed residences throughout the city that will most likely get worse before it gets better.”

“‘People will no longer take care of the properties because they don’t have any vested interest in them,’ he said. ‘Sometimes you’ll even find them stripped of appliances, or with holes left in the wall.’”

“‘[These homes] will affect the values of surrounding properties — there’s no doubt about it,’ he added.”

“Costa Mesa Chief Code Enforcer Jim Golfos said that the city has fielded such complaints about a number of such homes. Technically, whoever owns a property, in this case, a bank or other loaner, is legally responsible for its maintenance. But, given the vast size and influence of national banks, a number of properties tend to slip through bureaucratic cracks, Golfos said.”

“‘Recently, it took us about three weeks to get through [a lending institution’s] lawyers — that can be a lot harder than dealing with an individual resident,’ he said. ‘This is a phenomenon that just came to light [in] the city three to four weeks ago.’”

The Desert Sun. “Palm Desert housing sales in January were up 10.4 percent from a traditionally slow December, according to DataQuick. The median price for 92211 was $377,500, down 17.8 percent from January 2007. The median for 92260 is $340,000, down 21.8 percent.”

“In the Coachella Valley, 526 homes were sold in January. It’s been nearly 12 years since monthly sales in the Coachella Valley dipped that low. In September 1996, 493 homes were sold, according to DataQuick.”

“Relatively steady sales in the desert’s condo market are helping make up for plunges in sales of new home construction, January’s numbers show. ‘If condos were down as much as other categories, then the overall decline would be sharper,’ DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said.”

“The median price for the valley stands at $330,000, down 13.2 percent from January 2007.”

“In January, new home sales took the biggest year-over-year sales hit. Only 80 new homes were sold last month - a drop of 64 percent from January 2007. The local Building Industry Association is projecting fewer than 1,500 permits will be issued this year, down from the more than 8,000 issued in 2006.”

“‘A lot of contractors are having to lay people off,’ said Aimee Schrumpf, executive director for the Desert Contractors’ Association. ‘Because of the layoffs, we’re hearing more and more of people just trying to feed their families.’”

The LA Daily News. “The median price of a San Fernando Valley home plunged a record $113,000 in January from a year ago and sales sank to an all-time low as credit and foreclosure problems further pounded the market, a trade association said Wednesday.”

“The 18 percent price drop, to $500,000 from $613,000, is the first double-digit percentage decline since the early 1990s, said the Van Nuys-based Southland Regional Association of Realtors.”

“The latest median is nearly 25 percent below the record $655,000 set last June and is at the same level as in December 2004.”

“Similar conditions are now also in play in the Santa Clarita Valley. The report showed that last month the median price there plunged an annual 21.8 percent, or $127,900, to $460,000 and sales fell 42.4 percent, to 99 transactions.”

“The condominium median price fell 20.9 percent, or $75,100, to $284,900 and sales tumbled 57.5 percent, to 31 transactions.”

“Prices would have to fall further to make them affordable and turn around the sluggish sales market, said Daniel Blake, director of the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge.”

“‘I’m still not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,’ Blake said. ‘If there is one, we’re looking at it about this time next year. And I hate to say that to a Realtor.’”

“Nevertheless, the Realtors group still believes that fire-sale prices won’t result from the market upheaval. ‘Buyers need to realize that prices are not nose-diving, especially in a mature market like the … Valley where there is a finite supply of homes for sale,’ said Jim Link, the association’s executive VP.”

“While January’s big price decline is surprising, it came down from a high level, Link said. Nevertheless, January brought the fourth consecutive month of price declines.”

“‘If you are a seller, you’ve got to be realistic and realize you will not be getting what you would have 18 months ago,’ Link said.”

“Randolph Rogers knows that all too well. ‘The third time was the charm,’ said Rogers, as movers loaded the last of his family’s belongings into a big van Wednesday.”

“He put his 1,500-square-foot home on the market last May for $539,000 after retiring from the Los Angeles Unified School District. He dropped the price three times, finally striking a deal for $425,000.”

“Why that price point? ‘So they could get a conforming loan,’ he said of the buyers. So on Wednesday they locked up the house they bought new in 1987 and moved to Leisure World in Camarillo.”

“Last month, home sales plunged an annual 43.2 percent, to 323 transactions, 246 fewer than a year ago. That’s the lowest monthly total since record-keeping began in May 1984.”

“Association President Mary Funk said short sales are becoming more common now. She said some offers are coming in ‘way under’ the list price but that lenders are submitting counterproposals. And some are willing to pay the buyer’s closing costs.”

“That’s good for buyers, she said. But severe problems persist. ‘The foreclosure situation is affecting prices. The problem is the buyers feel that homes that are owner-occupied should be going for the same price as a foreclosure or a short sale,’ Funk said.”




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188 Comments »

Comment by TheArcadian
2008-02-28 16:12:05

‘Buyers need to realize that prices are not nose-diving, especially in a mature market like the … Valley where there is a finite supply of homes for sale,’ said Jim Link, the association’s executive VP.

The housing decline numbers are breaking all sorts of 10-20 year records this month and Jim Link is still saying crap like this with a straight face. Even Mozillo has finally admitted that we’re in for a world of hurt.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 16:20:58

People are saying the same for Gainesville, FL. Checking the MLS, this unfortunately looks true. Prices have dropped very little, if at all. They were still going up in price in 2006. I hear it’s because of all those college students, it keeps increasing demans for rentals and housing. Those who can’t sell can easily rent and in most cases, break even vs. their mortgage. They can easily rent each room out for $400-500 a month, thats $1200-1500 a month for a 3/2 house. I can rent for much cheaper in different cities in Florida since there isn’t so much demand for rentals unlike Gainesville with it’s huge college population.

My mom suggests I live in Gainesville for a year so ill be close to my brother. I told her I could not afford the rental and one bedroom was not big enough for me and my business. To buy a house is an average of $125/foot which at this point is more than Port Saint Lucie and close to the $150/foot of Palm Beach County. $150k in Gainesville gets you a nice 2/1.5 house or a simple 3/1 or 3/2 house that looks like a trailor. Size is from 800 to 1400 living square foot. Those houses would cost around $995/month to rent making it almost as expensive to rent as to own.

I will only consider Gainesville if my brother agrees to share a mobile home with me. I can purchase one for around $20k with lot rent for $250-300 a month. This is 3-4x cheaper than renting a house and many times cheaper than owning a house.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 16:43:22

Hey Bye FL:

As you probably know, I don’t live in FL, but I will give you my opinion about advertised rents and house prices anyway. When I was looking for a rental in Silicon Valley, I also noticed that asking prices had skyrocketed. However, it turns out that actual rents are only up slightly. It just APPEARS that rents have gone out of control because there are so many morons with ridiculous asking prices out there. The overpriced rentals hang around on craigslist for months and months and months, while the reasonable ones get rented out within two weeks. That causes the average asking price posted on craigslist at any one time to be skewed upward. The same goes for MLS listing prices. My advice is to check craigslist (or whatever board you use) every day, and follow up immediately on anything that seems decent and well priced.

After all, the college students have always been there in your town, so their presence shouldn’t cause a change in rents all of the sudden.

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 16:52:23

Or do what they’re doing in our area, that is, calling the landlord or property manager and making them an offer. I talked to a local property manager and was told that they were taking whatever warm body that walked into their office and not letting them go. If the potential renter didn’t like prices, they’re asking them what they would think is reasonable and then shoving the offer down the owners throats. They said they’re getting up to 25%-30% off asking rents (not to mention waiving deposits, ect) of the idiots trying to price too high.

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Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 16:56:16

That sounds right. My old neighbor ended up renting her house for 12% off asking, and allowed a dog (which she originally did not want). The house also sat vacant on the market for about 3 months, and was empty for a month before she put it on the market while she tried to get friends/acquaintenances to rent it.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 16:59:30

I will tell my brother and parents this. Theres some nice $200k homes with $1200-$1500 asking rent prices. Think I could get it rented out for 25% off that? I was told all those college students in search for rentals would mean the landlord doesn’t have to wait long, so why would he go down in rent?

 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:07:52

It’s funny you mention the dog thing, Big V. I had a friend a couple of months ago who found a rental he liked, but was disappointed to find out that there were no pets allowed. I personally knew that this rental had been on the market for over a year, so I told him to ask anyway. Of course they said yes, but wanted a big ‘ol deposit. I tell him to tell them to go blow a goat. End result? He gets the rental with no extra deposit.

It’s the renters that are doing the humping these days.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:16:20

Bye:

Not to beat a dead horse here, but college students have limited income and are notorious for trashing houses, breaking leases, and having the cops called on them. Unlike house prices (which are supported by mortgages), rents can ONLY be supported by incomes.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 18:44:59

I just asked my parents, they said rents can’t be negotiated. They tried, the landlords refuse to bulge. Guess what, their apartments sat empty all year!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-28 19:09:15

You can negotiate anything, anytime.

If you know how…

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 16:56:14

There hasn’t been much change in rents but they are still expensive. House prices have skyrocketed in Gainesville and were still going up when most other cities in FL were starting to drop.

I don’t live in Gainesville but my sister does and my bro is returning to Gainesville next semister. He is going to spend around $500 to rent a tiny 1/1 apartment which he says is enough space for him. I need much more space and it would cost $1200-$1500 a month to rent a house, $200-$250k to own or I could get the space I need from a double wide mobile home for $20k to $40k and pay a low $250-$300 lot rent.

I told my parents I can get a house cheaper in Oil City than a mobile home+lot rent in Gainesville. Also the weather up north is better with nice pleasent summers and 4 beautiful seasons that ive missed out my whole life. Theres beautiful rolling hills as well.

Gainesville only makes sense as a college student which I am not. I refuse to pay such a dear price to live near my brother, I told him he can go ahead and move to Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh offers lots of opporunities for him to practice law and ill be willing to move down from Oil City to Pittsburgh when/if he moves there. Much, much, much better price than Gainesville!

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Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:08:13

Hi Bye:

Given the rents and prices you just quoted for houses, there is NO WAY that recent landlords are cash-flow positive. Based on the investment rule that a house should be no more than 100x monthly rent (up to 120x in high-appreciation areas like San Fran), house prices are about 2x higher than they should be in Gainseville.

Of course, if you can live somewhere nicer with cheaper rents, and that move won’t affect your ability to earn $$, then you should do it. It’s nice to live in the same city as your brother (since you guys get along), but he’s the one with the law degree and salary to go along with it. Let him move close to you!

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 18:48:43

A mobile home is all I could afford anywhere in Florida. A much better option is for my brother to simply relocate if he wants to live near me. I asked him and he does not know where he will live but says he is leaving Gainesville in 3 years when he graduates. Maybe I can get him to relocate to Pennsylvania(Pittsburgh) and ill move from Oil City to Pittsburgh where houses are cheap enough and will get even cheaper. $75k currently gets me a nice 3/1 house in a safe neighboorhood. I expect to get one for $50k 3 years from now. Not as cheap as Oil City but cheap enough and ill make the move if my bro moves to Pittsburgh.

 
 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 16:44:58

If your city ain’t crashing like the rest of the country (oh wait, make that world!), then move!

 
Comment by TheArcadian
2008-02-28 17:08:44

Bye FL,

Yes, there are some concentrated cities/regions that still report a increase of median prices through 2006/2007. Arcadia, CA is one of them.

Since I’m not familiar with the area, has Gainesville experienced the double or triple value booms that other areas have seen?

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 18:51:55

Yes! All of Florida was bubbly! I remember when houses used to cost $70/foot in Palm Beach County. A check on Zillow says I could have gotten a 1200 square foot starter house in Gainesville for $50k in 1998. That house is $150k in 2008. Ill pass.

Other parts of Florida are dropping nicely in price. If I do move back to Florida, itll be to one of those more affordable parts that will be far, far cheaper than Gainesville.

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Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-02-29 09:56:38

Estimating conservatively, there are about 47 new giant mushroom condo developments more than we need in this town, most of them built within the last two years. Giant new crap on 6th St., giant new crap on 13th St., giant new crap on Archer Road, unimaginably huge new crap planned for 2nd Ave., and, hooray!, a new luxury city in the sky piece of giant buffalo flop planned for the lip of Paynes Prairie. Even if city fathers continue the practice of assigning all rat warrens built before 1995 to the fire department to burn down for training, there is still no way the University can supply the students to rent/buy all this giant new crap. What people do not seem to realize is that there isn’t any dang money–a bunch of these kids renting these skyhigh luxury dorm rooms are using their south Florida parents’ real estate profits. Obviously they aren’t going to be able to continue that practice in perpetuity. Here as everywhere prices will have to come down. Right now we are mouldering in a drawn-out granitecountertop delusion stage with, exactly as you say, trailer-sized accomodations smack in the full-bore ghetto going for $100,000. But the fever is going to break here, too.

Don’t get a dang trailer, you’ll have to live way out in Alachua or Williston or some BS and burn up thousands in gas plus it’s been several years since a hurricane came through–any minute now we’ll get smacked and you don’t want to be in no trailer then, tell you what.

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-02-28 16:26:22

If prices falling 25% in seven months is not nose-diving, I’d hate to see what this guy DOES define as nose-diving.

Comment by Wilson
2008-02-28 16:43:43

I have no doubt we are going to find out…
Would love to email him about the definition of “nose-diving” and to email Appleton-Young about the definition of “her lifetime” when Marin prices drop even further…

 
 
Comment by mrincomestream
2008-02-28 16:49:12

REO’s will soon begin to set the market…

The pressure is building…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23390252

Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:08:50

On that note, I had occasion to speak with a good friend last night at a dinner party.

He told me his father is in escrow on a house in east Palmdale. Bank owned, originally list at 340K. This was what the bank had into it. They reduced the price to move it, 240K.

My friend’s dad offered 140K, and they took it. That’s about 100X rent for the area and well under $100/sq.ft. Think that’ll hurt the comps?

(Please excuse the repeat of my post below, It fit better here.)

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-28 19:43:29

Let me see….the bank took a haircut of $200,000.? Is that right? Um, yeah, I think that might hurt the comps. Just a bit.
Ouch.

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Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:48:02

The other thing I noticed in this conversation was that my friend, who has been in commercial building for many, many years and has seen a few cycles seemed rather clueless as to how bad this is likely to get.

I was told by no fewer than 3 different people, “it’s a great time to buy”. OY VEY.

 
 
Comment by LostAngels
2008-02-28 20:08:39

That’s an interesting story. I just heard a similar story about Lancaster which is right next to Palmdale. I know a guy was is offering low ball offers - 30-40% lower than what the Bank is asking - and then flipping the property for a $20k profit. This guy was doing the same thing back in the mid 90s. I still think it is too early for this but it’s working for this guy. He only gets 1 out of 10-15 offers accepted but Banks are loosening up - at least in Palmcaster.

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Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 22:14:05

Still too much….it will see comps of $65k before it goes back above 100/sf.
The high desert is going to suffer an acute case of appendicides from the LA Basin economy. The only growing statistic for the area is section 8 housing.
Housing appreciation is the only reason the high desert exists in the first place.

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Comment by SdGuY
2008-02-28 17:17:04

He also said

“We should start to see things level off,” he said. “I’m not predicting a good market but I don’t think it’s going to be a lot worse.”

I needed a laugh this afternoon.LOL

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-28 20:38:40

Note to self: Replace “think” with “hope/pray” whenever reading these REIC quotes.

 
 
 
Comment by OCDan
2008-02-28 16:15:35

Terhune says. ‘If my customers can’t pay what they owe me, the mortgage company can’t get what I owe them.’”

Therefore, the mortgage company takes back what you bought. Does Terhune think this is some kind of game. You wanted the house. You signed in good faith that you paid, come He!! or high water. Your pipeline dried up and so you didn’t have enough to cover the nut. What in the world did you think was going to happen?

People think a million dollar mortgage, which is what this guy HAD, is like a 10K CC that you can’t make a $300 payment on for a month.

Good grief, when your mortgage payment is more than, oh, I don’t know, 85% of the monthly rake home of most of America, what did you think would happen to your precious home(loan)?

Ben, I know we always ask, but where do you find these people? All I can say is that these FBs should be grateful it isn’t Guido and Rocko they owe this kind of money to because they would all be swimmin wid da fishes!

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 16:42:53

The bad thing is his $100k downpayment is history. He is walking away after owning the house for less than a year.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-02-28 16:50:03

Not quite. The full story notes that National Asset Company bought the note for 1/2 its price from a bankrupt Ameriquest and worked out a deal with Terhume to tkae a one-time 25K payment and drop his interest rate to 6% (was 8.5%). So maybe he sticks it out.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:22:13

Nope. No income, no house. Interest rate doesn’t matter.

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:00:35

And once again, what really pisses me off is the media portrays the dude as some sort of victim while the lender is vilified for not working with him. Notice there was no payment reset, just an idiot that bit off way more than he can chew. Granted, these lenders should have never been making these loans. But their punishment is the backside bruising their currently taking in foreclosures. Terhune, on the other hand, DESERVES foreclosure, DESERVES ruined credit, and DESERVES public humiliation for be a friggin moron!

Comment by santacruzsux
2008-02-28 17:18:11

C’mon now ex, you know better than that. Americans deserve that beautiful house, with those beautiful wives. It’s more than just a matter of deserving something for nothing, it’s downright expected these days. Everyone is a winner!

I’m surprised that these FB’s didn’t ask for a participant trophy after going through foreclosure.

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:21:26

I got a “participant trophy” for ‘em, and I think you all know what it is.

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Comment by mina
2008-02-28 18:21:20

everyone’s a winner. line right up to pick up your prize!

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-02-28 18:33:22

More like bend right over to collect your prize.

 
Comment by in Colorado
2008-02-28 19:09:11

A bronzed Joshua tree?

 
Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:12:30

Nah, bronzing it would make it too smooth.

 
 
 
Comment by laonlooker
2008-02-28 17:39:05

“Granted, these lenders should have never been making these loans.”

Yeah, while the bulk of the responsibilty lies on the borrower, this is the reason the banks also must suffer. Of course, they will suffer whether the work with the borrower or not; either adjust loans or risk borrower goes into default. Lose-lose.

 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-02-28 17:48:02

It sounds a litttle over-extended. Granted he is using it as the loation for his business (it has outbuildings and a lot of land.) That means that pretty much every penny of the mortgage is deductible as a business expense.

Still it sounds like the business was grossing $20,000 a month or $240K a year. He also has employees (reference in the full article to employees.) That means if the gross was $240,000, he is paying for materials, equipment and employees out of that. Even if only has 2 employees and pays them $15-20 an hour each, that would be around $88K a year when employer contributions to unemployment and Soc Sec are included. That only leaves $152,000 and out of that comes materials (and wood is not cheap.) A $6900 mortgage payment is $82,800 a year or 54+% of gross.

Just can’t see the numbers at all.

BTW, Geyserville where this guy is from is the name of the town where a brand-new seller on Ebay was trying to peddle used his and her Burberry rain coats for more than they sell New Without Tags on Ebay. Also was trying to peddle some knicknacks at insane prices that are about 6 times more than they would ever bring. Guess money is a problem in that town.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-28 19:11:54

What’s with your Burberry fetish?

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Comment by Suzy K
2008-02-28 22:01:32

Um yeah really…Do I care about Burberry? So little, I don’t even what hell it is but somehow my life still feels complete without it…..

 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2008-02-28 22:20:07

They make outstanding trench coats. If I could get one for 50% off, I’d buy it in a heart beat and keep it until I died. A true classic for the urban dweller that doesn’t drive everywhere they go.

 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-02-29 23:09:12

Burberrys are the ‘gotta have’ among the wanna-be set. That is what makes it so funny that they are trying to sell their $1000 raincoats on Ebay starting the auction at a price they NEVER reach by the end of auction for the same thing. They are clueless about what things bring in the non-retail market.

Brian - check out Ebay. Sellers will have New With or Without Tags from overstock. Usually $300-500 depending upon the popularity of the size.

They are good coats but no better than Brooks Brothers. Practical basic trenchcoats.

I came across that seller’s listings looking for somthing else.

 
 
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-02-29 08:57:44

Mortgage payments are never deductible as a business expense. The business expense deduction is in the form of depreciation on the fixed asset (building value only, not land) over the economic life which for buildings is 30 years.

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Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:20:26

Most people don’t take home anything clsoe to $6,900/month. That’s $82,800/year AFTER taxes.

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2008-02-28 18:28:46

What makes you think this guy was paying taxes? A self-employed cabinetmaker…

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 19:30:00

He’s not just self-employed, though. He has a business with employees and everything. Kind of hard to hide that kind of $$.

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Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:10:10

“rake home” I like that, that’s funny!

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 16:37:20

We keep hearing more and more stories about carpenters who bought multimillion-dollar houses based on the assumption that they would continue to earn housing-bubble salaries. However, there is an obvious contradiction here. If it’s true that house prices will always go up because there isn’t enough land to build more units for people, then it must be true that carpenters will have very little work in the near future (due to the dirth of buildable space). On the other hand, if the carpenter expects to get a lot of business, then it must be true that eventually the excess supply will meet/exceed demand in the market, and house prices must come down. Either way, it never made sense for carpenters and the like to take on so much mortgage debt.

Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-28 18:22:26

However, when we run out of land in a year or two ;-) , then the carpenters can remodel all the crapboxes out there.

 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2008-02-28 18:38:36

I know of two people that did carpentry during the boom as a side job/hobby. Mostly building decks or remodeling bathrooms for people.

Both of them bought new construction during the boom and both of them shopped around for a builder that was willing to leave certain aspects of the home unfinished. The builder let go of a lot of high-profit work, but I guess thought it was worth it because they could close, pay off the construction loan, and move on to the next house much sooner.

Both of these people installed the flooring, drywall, fixtures, etc themselves and saved huge amounts of money. One of them bought a pallet of nice hardwood flooring from Switzerland, installed it on the whole first floor, and sold the remaining 1/3 of the pallet to a remodeler for more than he paid for the whole thing, including shipping costs.

So I guess there were some pretty smart carpenters and some pretty stupid carpenters.

 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 22:26:24

There is a monumental difference between a carpenter and a “custom cabinet installer”.
Any yahoo was capable of making outrageous money with “custom cabinets”. I doubt any of them could build anything with compound angles.
Every flipper hired and overpaid these alleged craftsman to slap machined moudlings on prefab boxes, slap some dark stain and charge a 300% markup. Because the flipper doubled that on resale.
I’m pretty sure this guy would give you a blank stare if you asked for dovetail drawerpulls.

 
 
Comment by Phil
2008-02-28 16:37:20

My old townhouse, east of downtown San Jose, is back on the market for $349,888. It last sold for $495,000 in May of 2006. Before that it was sold for $350,000 in 2003.

Comment by JP
2008-02-28 17:21:40

$349,888? Is it a good guess that it is now owned by someone who is ethnically chinese? (or maybe the realtor.)

 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:24:36

No, Phil, that is not possible. Everyone wants to live in San Jose.

Comment by Max
2008-02-28 18:35:34

I live in San Jose, but not because I want to. :)

Comment by Suzy K
2008-02-28 19:03:17

I’m sorry Max…I owned a house in San Jose for 10 years in the 80’s and never warmed to the place. Basically pretty crappy city planning all around. Haphazard at best. Which is why SJ lost out on all the big Silicon Valley companies that started & located in Santa Clara, Sunnyvale & Mt. View.

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Comment by Max
2008-02-28 19:16:09

Haphazard at best.

Actually, it’s pretty much dismal, even at the very best. But on the other hand SJ is not a real city, more of an imitation, so it would be cruel to hold it to the same standards as real cities. As they say in SJ: “When you say ‘I’m going to the city’ you mean San Francisco”.

 
Comment by Suzy K
2008-02-28 22:03:45

LOL!!!!!! I hear YA!!!!

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:14:57

Do you know the way to San Jose?
I’ve been away so long
I may go wrong and lose my way
Do you know the way to San Jose?

I’m going back to find some piece of mind San Jose -
L. A. is a great big freeway
Put a hundred down and buy a car
In a week - or maybe two - they’ll make you a star
Weeks turn into years and quickly pass
And all the stars there never were a parkin’ cars and pumpin’ gas
I’ve got lots of friends in San Jose
Wo oh oh oh
Can’t wait to get back to San Jose
Wo oh oh oh
Do You know the way to San Jose?

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Comment by sfrenter
2008-02-28 21:38:54

The house across the street from me was sold in 2005 for 680K (San Francisco, decent neighborhood but no Pacific Heights). SFH, 900 sq ft., postage-stamp sized backyard, garage turned into a room. My neighbor, a housepainter, fixed it up (it was pretty shoddy and hadn’t been updated in 40 years), and put it on the market for 989K.

That was 3 weeks ago. This afternoon I saw the realtor hanging a “reduced price” sign outside.

Now that’s something I haven’t seen in San Fran in a LONG time.

 
Comment by Isabel
2008-02-28 21:50:07

Did anyone else catch the new episode of House Hunters tonite? It was in San Jose. Homebuyers so smug and clueless that I felt like slapping them. I think we can refer to this one in the future as the “knife catchers” episode. :-)

 
 
Comment by Wilson
2008-02-28 16:40:47

‘The problem is the buyers feel that homes that are owner-occupied should be going for the same price as a foreclosure or a short sale,’ Funk said.”

That’s great logic by Mr. Funk. Wonder if we should offer him less for his home because his last name is Funk…

Comment by pos
2008-02-28 16:58:52

Mr. Funk has found the problem?

The problem with selling a house for $500,000 is that the buyers are shopping around and finding an equivalent forclosed house that is selling for $400,000. The agony of an real estate agent.

I have the same problem, I am trying to sell a box of pencils for $500 but those damn stores keep selling the same box of pencils for $5.

Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-28 17:27:29

Damn. Here I was thinking that pencil hording would be a wise and astute retirement investing strategy!

 
 
Comment by implosion
2008-02-28 17:29:08

Aren’t a lot of short sale properties typically owner-occupied?

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:31:04

YES!!!!

 
 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2008-02-28 17:55:01

What a moron. Hey Funk - buyers are purchasing a house; the price they pay is not dependent on whether that house is owner-occupied or vacant, as the value of the house does not magically increase because it’s owner-occupied.

In fact, I’d rather buy a vacant property than one that is occupied, as there is less risk of damage to the property prior to close - e.g., from the seller moving furniture or taking fixtures - and you don’t have to worry about the seller not removing all of their belongings/trash or taking items that they weren’t supposed to take. Plus, it’s easier to see the condition of the house if there is no furniture there to hide carpet stains, etc., and it would be easier to get a good home inspection without having to worry about the seller looking over the inspector’s shoulder or trying to keep the inspector away from bad areas.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-02-28 18:36:47

You got it all wrong. The sheep need to see a “staged” house or they just can’t imagine how anybody could live in it. Of course the average moron doesn’t realize that a staged house is an unlivable house.

 
Comment by Max
2008-02-28 18:38:49

In fact, I’d rather buy a vacant property than one that is occupied

Big mistake.

Comment by WaitingInOC
2008-02-28 18:57:42

Why? (I’ve never purchased a home, so I’m interested as to why it is a mistake to purchase a vacant house instead of one that is occupied).

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Comment by Max
2008-02-28 19:10:56

Houses are like gardens - need constant attention. Responsible owners or renters take care of the problems. A house left alone for awhile can:

1. Break the pipes in continental climates when left without heating.

2. Termites a big problem in California. It seems they attack every other year.

3. If a home is left without heating, expect problems with paint inside, if the house has any wallpaper it will peel off. A similar problem is mold from poor thermal regulation and stale air.

4. Social issues - unoccupied house is an easy target for thieves, squatters, illegal activities. An unoccupied house most certainly will not have appliances in it - an important item you can often get for free from the owners at negotiations.

Of course, the owners can screw up a thing or two, but IMO the benefits are greater.

 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2008-02-28 19:23:19

Thanks. I do intend to buy (not sure when, depends on when prices seem to be somewhere close to the bottom - I’m thinking late 2009 would probably be the earliest), so I’m always trying to learn more about the process.

Living in OC, I never really considered the bursting pipes thing to be an issue, but I hadn’t heard of or considered the paint/wallpaper issue. As for termites, I thought (not sure, though) that the seller had to get a termite inspection, so I didn’t think that it mattered whether it was vacant or occupied. I did consider the thieves, squatters part, but figured that a simple stop by the property just prior to closing could probably identify any of those issues.

 
Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:24:38

I disagree, a vacant house is a blank slate. I don’t want my decisions to be biased by whatever the current occupant has done with the place. Everything you mentioned as a con has a price and can be discounted.

 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 22:36:12

The most important piece of knowledge I can share today is the sewer systems are living creatures.

If your sewer lateral (pipe from your house to the sewer in the middle of the street) has spent the at least 2 years with a constant flow. The soil and roots around the pipe have grown accustomed to the nourishment. If it sits idle for months or years the soil dries up and roots go looking in other places for food. As it dries up the soil shrinks.
If this happens in poor soil or even worse in a housing tract that was rushed to finish, you can expect some collapses.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 16:41:55

“The problem is the buyers feel that homes that are owner-occupied should be going for the same price as a foreclosure or a short sale,’ Funk said.”

Put this quote on top of the list of most idiotic comments of 2008. Can these realtors really be that stupid?

Comment by mrincomestream
2008-02-28 16:53:20

Exactly…I had to read that line five times just to make sure I had just read what I thought I had read. Unbelievable…

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:19:09

Yeah, I can just see the sales line now, “Yes Mr and Mrs Smith, the last 4 sales on this street have been considerably lower than this one. But you see, those were either foreclosures or short sales. This, on the other hand, is an owner-occupied home. That’s why your paying an extra 100K.”

Makes perfect sense to me.

Comment by JP
2008-02-28 17:24:09

LOL.
But seriously, how do you get it through their thick skulls?
(I know I know, you want to use a JT and go through the other side.)

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Comment by Neil
2008-02-28 18:31:22

No need to get it through their skulls. They’ll starve. Its amazing how fast hungry animals adapt.

Oh… But they do strike out too, so keep a safe distance.

CR has an article up about Wells Fargo requiring, starting February 29th, a 25% down payment in a large number of bubble markets. I’m shocked my searches haven’t turned up a discussion…

Its in line with my prediction. :)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 18:56:57

“CR has an article up about Wells Fargo requiring, starting February 29th, a 25% down payment in a large number of bubble markets. I’m shocked my searches haven’t turned up a discussion…

Its in line with my prediction.

Got Popcorn?
Neil”

Wow! This is great news! This will cause those bubble areas to crash very fast and very hard and the more prices fall, the more reluctant lenders will be!

But how will this help the less bubbly areas? Wont the former bubble areas then become cheaper and people will be relocating to former bubble areas!

 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2008-02-28 19:03:02

Bye FL - just follow your own logic here one more step. If people start relocating to former bubble areas, then implicit in that is they are leaving the less bubbly areas. If people leave those less bubbly areas, then supply increases and demand drops in those less bubbly areas, so prices fall in those less bubbly areas.

I’m not sure if people will actually relocate to the former bubble areas, but if they do, then it will lower prices in less bubbly areas (although less bubbly areas shouldn’t have to fall as much, since they were less bubbly).

 
Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:27:09

I think that’s just about enough of that word, thank you!

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 20:34:46

People were leaving Florida for other states, NC was a popular choice. Now that prices in NC went up and in FL they went down, some are moving back to FL! Others are leaving NC for other cheaper states!

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:18:10

Dang, all this moving around makes me tired. I didn’t realize we had so many migrant workers.

 
Comment by AppleEye
2008-02-28 23:00:17

RE: Wells Fargo requiring 25% down payments

Wells Fargo: Over 200 markets face housing trouble

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co, the second-largest U.S. provider of home loans, has identified more than 200 troubled housing markets nationwide, showing how the mortgage crisis has spread beyond a few select U.S. regions.

In a February 25 document sent to mortgage brokers, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo said it had identified “soft,” “distressed” or “severely distressed” housing markets in 24 states and Washington, D.C. Most of the markets are counties, while a handful are cities.

Wells Fargo is tightening its lending standards in the affected markets on February 29, often by limiting the size of loans as a percentage of home values, regardless of borrowers’ ability to pay. In some markets, it will not allow purchasers to borrow more than 75 percent of the value of their homes.

In the document, Wells Fargo said California has at least 33 housing markets “at risk,” and that at least 20 counties, including Los Angeles and San Diego, face severe distress.

Florida also has 33 at-risk markets, followed by Michigan and Virginia with 15 each, and Maryland and Ohio with 13 each, Wells Fargo said.

Other at-risk markets are located in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia, Wells Fargo said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2734821720080227

 
 
 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:26:02

Oh and another thing, most short-sales ARE owner-occupied. Only owner occupants even think to work something out with the bank to get the home sold. Most FB-specuvestors holding sinking investment properties just walk.

Mr Funk, you suck!

Comment by implosion
2008-02-28 19:38:34

Didn’t see this earlier ex…

 
 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-02-28 16:47:07

“The problem is the buyers feel that a home that is owner occupied should be going for the same price as a foreclosure or a short sale.” –Pres of the Van Nuys-Southland Regional Assn of Realtors

No, the problem is, it’s still cheaper to rent than to buy.

Comment by Neil
2008-02-28 18:56:07

Az_lender,

That’s too simple of an answer… time to check your math. ;)

Munch munch munch.

Its one of those Schadenfreude weeks…

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-28 19:21:13

Hey Az and all;
I love my leased home in O’side. Hills, ocean breeze, quiet and lots of wildlife. I pay a bunch of rent and wondered if it will cost less in few years to lease. That would be so great to rent a home for 1800.00 or less.
If home prices come down rents should too. As a perma single buying alone is a stretch. Going to open houses without a spouse is embarrassing. Renting can be the good life too.

Comment by implosion
2008-02-28 19:41:24

Just drag someone along and buy them a few beers.

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-28 19:47:38

rent a spouse.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-29 01:18:41

Much, much cheaper than buying for sure! ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-28 19:50:07

‘Going to open houses without a spouse is embarrassing.’

Why?

 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 22:39:44

Take my wife please………….
She is onboard with my wait and see but loves to window shop.

 
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-02-29 00:32:33

“lots of wildlife.”

Would that be human or critters?

 
 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-28 16:47:23

Breaking news……………..

FMT halted !!!!!!!!!!

KABOOM ?

Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-02-28 16:50:03

Hey Hoz,

1,999 to go?

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 17:45:10

There are NYSE listed companies that are currently preparing BK filings. There are defaults in corp debt. Some moron on the news today was asking “why did Mr. Bernanke say there were going to be small banks going under, I thought they did not have subprime exposure?” It is the small banks that have the exposure to corporate loans including corporate construction loans. There is no where for these banks to hide. No MLEC, SIE or my Uncle Vinnie’s wallet.

The corporate/Treasury spread has over 50% of listed companies trading as if already in default.

Comment by vozworth
2008-02-28 18:23:47

it appears as though some folks might be gettin a bit panicky.

If you are over FDIC limits, you had best resolve that situation right quick. The velocity of money is going to be staggering.

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Comment by formerlahomeowner
2008-02-28 18:27:00

When I sold my house in 2004, my wife and I opened CDs in Fremont Savings and Loan because they were paying higher interest compared to other banks. Closed my accounts last year over lunch when the subprime crisis unraveled. These guys were using my money to fund subprime loans.

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-02-28 18:43:12

I have a good one for you Hoz. I stumbled upon a little blurb at work today that stated a certain gentleman would be receiving an award as Banker of the Year in Florida in 2006. The bank was named bank of the year. At the end of 2006 this bank had $0 of non-accruing loans. At the end of 2007 this bank had $80 million of non-accruing loans. Oops. I guess he won’t get the award for 2007. Something tells me this former bank of the year won’t be a bank much longer. And they did no subprime lending that I know of. Construction loans were good enough.

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Comment by az_lender
2008-02-28 23:05:33

Taking things more personally than I should, I hope my present situation in which I have $0 of non-performing loans does not turn south as fast as that…

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-28 18:49:31

“The corporate/Treasury spread has over 50% of listed companies trading as if already in default.”

Is this spread unprecedented?

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Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 19:52:14

Prof,

There is so much that is happening that is unprecedented.

The most important one (IMHO) is the Municipal auction. No failed auctions until August 2007 then 15 failed auction through December 2007, over 300 failed auctions so far this year. This is a $400B market that died.

Sometimes I wish I could take a forgetfulness pill so I could wake up with complete ignorance of the world economy. “Ignorance is bliss.” Ask the FBs.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-02-29 01:23:31

This guys seems to be using that exact strategy:

“‘I’m keeping good faith and trying to catch up,’ he says. ‘I’m flying by the seat of my pants.’”

 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-28 19:03:55

no problemo: Banks goin under..get the money out of the mattress and go into food.
————————–
Seeking Alpha
Capitalize on Water Shortages With Grain ETFs
Monday February 25, 6:14 am ET
By James Eckler

James Eckler submits:When Boone Pickens, the world famous oil investor, announces that he is investing in water rights, it is time to take note.
Clearly we have a rising global population, a declining supply of fresh water, agriculture (crops use about 80% of U.S. water) using an increasing portion of water and the dollar dropping increasing global grain prices.

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Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 19:46:31

What kind of oil does this guy invest in? Olive, canola, corn?

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-28 20:15:19

look at you Big V, callin out a canola bubble…

thats the kind of thinking I can wrap my tiny brain around. Yellow, shiny, commodity…..mmmmm, canola. fry up some potatoes then put it in the diesel to get to work. I gotta start thinking outside the box on sustainable future energy consumption.

 
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-02-28 19:07:43

1.998
lest you forget that little outfit in Apharetta Georgia, NetBank was it?

 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:32:58

Thanks, I did. It was my best trade last year.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2008-02-28 17:36:22

This is the news that was reported last week, that $9 billion dollar bank was going DOWN!!! I think this is !

 
 
Comment by Anon E. Moose
2008-02-28 16:50:34

“Association President Mary Funk said short sales are becoming more common now. She said some offers are coming in ‘way under’ the list price but that lenders are submitting counterproposals. And some are willing to pay the buyer’s closing costs.”

Pay to close, or pay to foreclose? Take your choice.

The banks can pay a title company lawyer to close on the house in a short sale, or they can pay their own lawyer to foreclose on the house - which do they think is a better deal?

 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-02-28 16:56:54

‘I’m flying by the seat of my pants.’”

that would be quite a site to behold, especially with a joshua tree sticking out of his back seat..

 
Comment by friar john
2008-02-28 16:58:15

“‘It’s almost like a bunch of people are standing on the side of a pool and waiting for somebody to jump in,’ lender Ken Lawrence said of the state of the market.”

Maybe because the pool party was over at a foreclosed home. Don’t know if there any alligators in that pool…the water is sort of murky. We should probably wait until the pool has been drained and cleaned.

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-02-28 17:13:42

Let me correct your analogy, Mr Lawrence……..

It’s like it’s cold and rainy, everbody is inside, and they want absolutely nothing to do with the pool.

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-02-28 17:59:02

Or the pool only has two feet of water in it. There might be a couple of fools that think it has 9 feet and jump in head first.

 
Comment by Curt
2008-02-28 20:33:59

I think it’s time for “pent-up demand” to be relegated to the ranks of “aging baby-boomers,” with tons of cash, and “rich foreigners,” with bags of money.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:21:08

Don’t forget us pesky Californians who show up everywhere with bags o’ cash. Not.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-02-28 20:51:58

Someone threw a Baby Ruth into the pool. (an awfully big, multi-trillion dollar Baby Ruth)

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 17:01:56

“I’m still not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,” Blake said. “If there is one, …”

Freeze up in the market, foreclosure teeming, mortgage rates higher and layoffs just starting. “If there is one”, there will be an end to the debacle. Somehow, someway we will muddle our way through this and maybe, just maybe end up with regulations akin to Sweden’s or Japan’s actively discouraging “bubble” formations.

Comment by GPBlank
2008-02-28 17:08:19

USD/JAP looking kind of scary tonight

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 17:36:06

Only if you are long the dollar (or Euro).

 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-28 19:42:28

“Somehow, someway we will muddle our way through this and maybe”
And maybe people will only buy things they can afford.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-28 19:53:45

And maybe I’ll catch a pretty magic unicorn and ride it to Texas. I’ve never been to Texas. I understand it’s flat.

Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 20:36:30

The Phallus and Phallus Worship in History

“Horns have had sexual significance since the dawn of history-not only …”

“As everyone knows, only a maiden (or virgin) could capture a unicorn.”

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Comment by sdsurfer
2008-02-28 17:02:18

incidentally, i took profits in my trading positions in silver and gold today. sure, they could have more to run. i was targeting (from $15 and $650ish) $20 and $980 and we got there very fast. i still have long-term core holdings based on my personal porfolio allocations. who knows? i may even put some out soon on the short side depending how things unfold the next few days

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-02-28 17:19:29

Having the same thought myself. I’m stupid enough to ride it to 1100 though. My real quandary is a long position on some focused internationals. They’ve been golden with the dollar plunge but all thing end.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-28 17:56:28

I wouldn’t short here. Bernanke sounds more dovish this week than he has his whole term. There needs to be some datum to stabilize the market or this thing could melt up further. (Anything under a 50 b.p. cut in March, for example, would be short-term bearish, but that’s a ways away.) And unlike housing, historically/relatively the precious metals are not overly expensive or broadly owned despite this huge run, and I think people are recognizing this.

Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:36:28

…and with the FMT failure there will be a resultant watershed event in the market, followed by another emergency rate cut.

Gold is golden.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-02-28 19:15:30

Talked to one of the bigger dealers in physical precious metals in el lay, today…

He told me it’s all sellers.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-02-28 20:49:09

I sold APA at 110 a few days ago. I think its 119 now? Runaway commodities market thanks to heli Ben Bernake. Nemount up on a loss today. Looks like a moon shot but I will wait to buy more. Maybe it will correct? I don’t know, but long I don’t see way but up.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-02-28 17:04:03

Terhune was $70,000 in arrears. Even with the easier terms, he missed the December payment.”

“‘I’m keeping good faith and trying to catch up,’ he says. ‘I’m flying by the seat of my pants.’”

No you are nuts! $6900.00 a month, you could not afford it in the first place. Say what you will but $20,000.00 gross a month sounds like a lot and it is, but subtract taxes,truck,fuel tools, Ins. etc,etc,etc, and no way in the world can this fellow afford this place. Let it go dude, you are just bleeding money that you will never see again.

Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-28 17:33:48

and he put $100k down, hahahaha
Dude don’t you know most of the GF put nothing down. No harm, no foul!
You think that may be the reason the bank dragged its feet. Until he’s $100k got burned thru, there was no need to redo the he’s mortgage.

 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2008-02-28 18:44:27

The article also mentions that he has two workers, so subtract their salaries. And if you need to subtract wood, hardware, and other materials that he needs to make the cabinetry, then his net is not that much, yet he signed on for $6,900/month payments for a house that is almost $1 million. Granted, he’s got land (article mentioned there’s 34 acres), but the house is a 3 bedroom house. Yikes.

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-02-28 17:04:47

i agree with hoz, that europe is/will be seeing some real pain next. and we’ll have to see what happens with the euro/dxy. stay tuned

 
Comment by friar john
2008-02-28 17:05:26

“‘I’m still not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,’ Blake said. ‘If there is one, we’re looking at it about this time next year. And I hate to say that to a Realtor.’”

I’ll say it to a Realtor, I’ll say it! I’ve even said it a few times already and usually with a half-@ss grin on my face…

Comment by TheArcadian
2008-02-28 17:12:56

There are alternative ways of displaying our frustration…

http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/re_sign_2.jpg

*Disclaimer: I don’t condone or encourage these types of actions.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 17:36:22

I sure am glad that Faizan Hanif Bakali made sure to include his middle name, otherwise I would have confused him with one of the other Faizan Bakalis selling houses for RE Max in the neighborhood.

Comment by AppleEye
2008-02-28 23:12:53

I believe Faizan changed his middle name from “Hussein.”

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Comment by vmaxer
2008-02-28 17:21:26

“‘We were like deer caught in the headlights,’ Harper said. ‘We liquidated our 401ks, Roths, everything to hang onto the house and pay our bills.’”

Idiots. They used the money that couldn’t be touched by bankruptcy. They’ll wish they had just walked. I wonder how many times this same scenario is playing out, across the country. This is the next leg down, as more and more people exhaust all their reserves to pay interest on a debt they can’t afford. I think 2008 is going to be the year where huge numbers of these kinds of people simply run out of cash.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 19:01:36

Talk about throwing good money after bad money! They should have just eaten their 3% downpayment, called it a day, walk away and rent for a few years!

Comment by Max
2008-02-28 19:43:11

Like a monkey, with its hand stuck inside the jar holding a banana. Trully an idiotic move, couldn’t find a better word. Pension money should only be used for its direct purpose, and nothing else. All world could burn in flames, you should not touch that money, because that’s all you’re gonna ever have.

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 19:50:30

I always thought it was racoons that did that.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-28 19:57:05

In my experience, racoons’ll just whip out their switch-blade or little belt hammer and make a bigger hole in that thar putative jar and then run off with everything. But I don’t know if most FBs are as smart as racoons. These ones surely don’t seem to be.

 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-02-29 00:02:04

I imagine an army of unfed squirrels are taking notes from these racoons.

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 20:36:01

I would touch my pension money for serious medical emergencies only for myself and my family.

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Comment by Max
2008-02-28 21:50:44

That, or paying the ransom.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2008-02-28 17:29:11

“‘ Terhune says. ‘If my customers can’t pay what they owe me, the mortgage company can’t get what I owe them.’”

Yessire Mr. Terhune, now that you mention it, I do recall that being boiler plate language in every mortgage that I signed. Damned idiot must have a head full of sawdust!
Hope you have another line of work lined up as I don’t think that cabinetry sales will be paying for your room and board much longer.

 
Comment by Mike
2008-02-28 17:35:13

So Vulture Hedge Funds are getting in on the foreclosure act. Hedge funds have multipled like maggots on a dead carcass over the last few years, yet another result of Mr. Magoo’s voodoo economics. Basically fueled by Magoo’s “Free Money Express” which has now crashed and isn’t going to get repaired any time soon.

The example of the hedge fund buying the loan for that $985,000 property in Geyserville (which would allow the original owner to stay in the property) is interesting. The owner is a cabinet/furniture maker. He admits to being struggling financially because customers (I assume they were people who have been caught with their property panties down) have cancelled. So, if we are in the early stages of this mess with a recession in the works, property prices still only in the first quarter of a downturn which could see prices dropping to their pre-2000 values, who is going to lose? The “owner” of the property for one. Sitting on a diminishing asset even if he can keep up the payments. The hedge fund investors will probably follow him into the tank.

Back in the 1990’s, an investor friend of mine got involved with a company which would offer private business mortgages because the normal lines of bank credit were not available for some reason or another. The loans were at much higher rates than banks of course. 10%, 12% up to 15%. The company would then “farm” them out to investors (like my friend). I seem to remember the company made their money up front (very wisely) by charging a hefty fee for finding the investor, arranging the paperwork, etc. I think they also “skimmed” a few % points for themselves. To cut a long story short, my friend lost a bundle (well over $1 million) as the “borrowers” reneged on the loans.

It’s going to take time but slowly we will get back to doing business the old fashioned way and a lot of these hedge funds will fade into the past which will come to be known as, “The Crazy Money Era.”

Comment by vozworth
2008-02-28 18:34:14

better start positioning like Calpers which is throwing some billions at Commodities.

Bank failures, bond failures, equity failures, crashing housing market, ramping inflation, precious metals crack up boom…

you cant make this up…if I could just find a way to put the oil in me directly, then I wouldnt need all this other mal-investment.

Comment by Max
2008-02-28 21:52:50

if I could just find a way to put the oil in me directly

(Whipping out a beer funnel…)

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 19:05:43

Would I be correct to say your odds are way better taking your cash and gambling at casinos? Games such as roulette, just bet the $100k max on red or black and you either have $0 or $200k.

One guy *did* do this and got lucky(odds slightly in the house’s favor) and doubled his $100k bet.

 
 
Comment by dude
2008-02-28 17:50:59

I had occasion to speak with a good friend last night at a dinner party.

He told me his father is in escrow on a house in east Palmdale. Bank owned, originally list at 340K. This was what the bank had into it. They reduced the price to move it, 240K.

My friend’s dad offered 140K, and they took it. That’s about 100X rent for the area and well under $100/sq.ft. Think that’ll hurt the comps?

Comment by Bye FL
2008-02-28 19:09:15

Oh itll absolutely kill the comps! I wonder if the realtors will bribe to keep those comps private!

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-02-28 17:52:03

Applied Materials is laying off 103 employees at 3050 Bowers Ave. in Santa Clara and 47 employees at 974 E. Arques Ave. in Sunnyvale on March 15.

Aurora Loan Services is laying off 93 employees on March 17 at 25520 Commercentre Drive, 1st Floor, in El Toro.

Centinela Hospital Medical Center is laying off 64 employees on March 8 at 555 E. Hardy St. in Inglewood.

Chad Therapeutics is laying off 80 employees on March 15 at 21622 Plummer St. in Chatsworth.

Dopaco is closing down and laying off 75 employees on March 7 at 5801 District Blvd. in Mettler.

First Student, dba Laidlaw Transit, is closing down and laying off 104 employees on February 29 at 11233 San Fernando Road in San Fernando.

Invensys Control Systems is closing down and laying off 58 employees on March 10 at 100 West Victoria St. in Long Beach.

Its All Greek To Me is closing down and laying off 63 employees on March 14 at 2290 Agate Court in Simi Valley.

Koret is closing down and laying off 60 employees on March 7 at 505 14th St. in Oakland.

Lockheed Martin Space Systems is laying off 80 employees on March 10 at 1111 Lockheed Martin Way in Sunnyvale.

Maritz Inc. is closing down and laying off 156 employees on March 7 at 2150 John Glenn Dr., Suite 200, in Concord.

Mervyn’s is laying off 83 employees at 48200 Fremont Blvd. in Diablo and 55 employees at 1015 S. Vintage Ave. in Ontario on March 3.

National City Mortgage is closing down and laying off 50 employees on March 15 at 5010 Shoreham Place, Suite 150, in San Diego.

Northrop Grumman Mission Systems is laying off 98 employees on February 28 at 222 West Sixth St. in San Pedro.

Omi/Thames Water Stockton. is laying off 95 employees on March 1 at 2500 Navy Drive in Stockton.

Sears, Roebuck and Co. is closing down and laying off 149 employees on March 9 at 5601 Santa Monica Blvd. in Hollywood.

The Bakersfield Californian is laying off 34 employees on March 17 at 3700 Pegasus in Mettler.

Tickets.com. is laying off 38 employees on March 14 at 2400 Bisso Lane, Suite 100, in Concord.

Wells Fargo Bank is closing down and laying off 150 employees at 5010 Old Ironsides Drive in Santa Clara and 55 employees at 2860 W. Bayshore Road in American Canyon on March 18.

Zapp Packaging is closing down and laying off 77 employees on March 14 at 200 North Berry St. in Brea.

Just a sampling from this weeks MAs filed.

Comment by dude
2008-02-28 19:43:29

The aerospace ones stand out to me. Are we seeing the beginnings of another military “peace dividend”?

Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:24:49

Shoot, we better invade Venezuela.

 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 22:57:59

No this is an Obama Hedge.

 
 
Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-28 20:04:10

tequila por favor!

 
Comment by cactus
2008-02-28 20:53:47

Honeywell laying off in Phoenix

 
 
Comment by sold in 04
2008-02-28 18:03:29

Wonderful to see such a nice drop in the san fernando valley,my wife cried when i sold my starter home in studio city for a 500k profit,and now rent in pismo beach ca,been surfing and biking on the bubble profit,my kid goes to an oceanfront public elementary school,I pay no property taxes,and utilize all the parks and trails,and we live on abouut 3500 a month which me and my wife make easily

Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 19:55:00

Good for you, soldin. Wish I were you.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-02-28 20:02:52

Good on ya, Mr. SmartyPants.

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:26:01

You suck. :)

 
Comment by LILLL
2008-02-29 09:19:59

Soldin04
Hey Dude! I sold in Studio City in 05 for a similar profit! I actually had to pay some cap gains(so that tells you somthin!) Where abouts? I was s of moorpark btw colfax and tujunga!

 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-02-28 18:08:50

I’ve been riding my mountain bike way down the beach at Ponte Vedra the last couple of days, and when you see the totality of all these mansions from the oceanside rather than in their setbacks in the live oaks and saw palmetto and sabal palms from the road it is quite impressive.

It is obvious that the thinking in building all these new $5+ million mega-mansions on the beach (they are mostly well back from the ocean with natural or created dunes, and this is not a heavy hurricane area) is that any money invested in real estate provides a safer and greater real return than any other investment, and therefore building the maximum possible sized house with the maximum features (slate and copper roofs, huge wraparound decks, roof-to-ceiling windows, etc.) makes the most economic/financial/investment sense.

It is equally obvious that this thinking is flawed.

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-02-28 20:02:19

Paul, my brother has a condo at Ponte Vedra. He rents it out to transplant patients. He overpaid but loves that area. Golf and privacy.

Oh give me a home with an oceanfront view
Where the sun and moon always shine.
Where seldom is heard
A discouraging word
And the skies are not cloudy all day.

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-02-28 21:27:38

The Taj Mahal was a mausoleum. Ponder that.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-02-28 18:47:53

“‘It’s almost like a bunch of people are standing on the side of a pool and waiting for somebody to jump in,’ lender Ken Lawrence said of the state of the market.”

It is more like a small number of people standing on the side of a pool and watching in shock as underwater swimmers drown. Nonetheless, Mr. Realtor is eagerly encouraging everyone who has not yet jumped: ‘Come on in, the water is fine!’

Comment by BackToTheBank
2008-02-28 19:32:15

‘Come on in, the water is fine!’

A great line from Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?

 
Comment by Big V
2008-02-28 19:57:36

And the drowners are naturally reacting by trying to grab on to anything they can grasp, including the lifeguard, who is now being sucked under as well.

 
Comment by tarred and feathered
2008-02-28 22:59:11

Jump into the water its the biggest no brainer in the history of mankind. Oh don’t worry him its my pet shark Lennox.

Comment by B. Durbin
2008-03-01 17:16:54

I *hate* that smarmy guy on the radio commercials.

Wasn’t that the same company that had the ads “I think that getting a home loans should be no more difficult than ordering a pizza”?

 
 
Comment by Hold out in LA
2008-02-28 23:19:17

The pool has been abandoned for months.
It is green and full of bugs….it has shrunk 5 feet and smells like hell. That is why no one is jumping in.

 
Comment by jim A
2008-02-29 06:52:21

Swimming pool? More like the Potomac river after the Air Florida Crash. A bunch of people looking helplessly on from the shoreline as people drown of freeze.

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-02-28 19:12:09

“The problem is the buyers feel that homes that are owner-occupied should be going for the same price as a foreclosure or a short sale”

As a potential buyer, it doesn’t sound like a problem to me.

“Buyers need to realize that prices are not nose-diving”

Sellers need to realize that I don’t NEED to buy. And that I have enough cash for a down payment, and as everyone knows, I’m not “just going to give it away”.

 
Comment by montana jim
2008-02-28 19:22:28

“‘It’s almost like a bunch of people are standing on the side of a pool and waiting for somebody to jump in,’ lender Ken Lawrence said of the state of the market.”

Poolside Realtor: Go ahead buyers, take the plunge, doesn’t the water look inviting? It’s a great time to go swimming…

Poolside Investor: But I see dead people floating underwater!

Poolside Realtor: Don’t be ridiculous! Those aren’t dead people, they’re just sellers waiting for an offer!

Poolside Investor: But it looks like they’re drowning! If I jump in, won’t they try to use me as a flotation device! Then I’ll be underwater just like they were…

Poolside Realtor: Have I mentioned they’re willing to pay all closing costs…

Comment by Blackbox
2008-02-28 20:09:07

Throw in a door that floats from the Titanic, and we have a deal!

 
Comment by newbie
2008-02-28 20:10:14

LOL…

The imagination on the blog is umm, well, imaginative.

 
Comment by lowball
2008-02-28 20:35:59

ROTFLMAO!!! :-)

 
 
Comment by BackToTheBank
2008-02-28 19:31:06

Yeah Costa Misery is getting a pounding worthy of its nickname. On the West Side, many SFRs are now wish-listed at $400-500k, many bank-owned. That seems to be the only price range in which anything sells right now. That may not sound special, but keep in mind these same homes were going for $650-$750k only 2 years ago. It’s definitely a$$-pounding central. According to realt(whore).com, the sales price in January for my zip code was down 32% Yoy. The East Side is starting to see a lot of foreclosures, too. That’s the “upper-class” part of Costa Mesa; you generally find all the illegals on the West Side.

The property at 1037 Parkhill, which was featured on Flip This House (or That?) is *still* for sale, a year after the failed flip. Still asking $675k for it. They are dreaming. (BTW, the floppers invested about $720k into it.)

Here’s a great statistic: 5 months worth of REO inventory in Costa Mesa. Check it out it’s true! Around 20 months worth of total inventory.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-02-28 20:59:14

“After watching the foreclosed home down the street slowly devolve into a state of dilapidation, Mary Dinius said she was forced to take matters into her own hands. The Mesa North resident paid her gardener an extra $40 to mow her former neighbor’s lawn on Cheyenne Street.”

I drive by a Bank owned house here in Ahwatukee Phoenix and all the palms out front are dead. giant 20 foot dead things ready to fall over or light on fire. I don’t know why but it makes me smile every day to see it.

 
Comment by Slewfoot
2008-02-28 21:58:16

OK ill admit it. I go to Zillow and drop 100K off the asking prices of various sellers homes. Im a bad person, sue me :)

 
Comment by AppleEye
2008-02-28 23:34:14

This clown is a FB Champion:

A muddy gravel road winds uphill through a redwood forest to Jake Terhune’s $985,000… Terhune, a self-employed cabinetmaker put down $100,000 and agreed to pay about $6,900 a month for 30 years to buy the three-bedroom house in 2006. …

After making his first payment, he fell behind.

Terhune was in trouble almost [sic] right from the start. When his second $6,910.89 mortgage payment came due, he didn’t have the money.

 
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