It’s Not The Craziness It Was A Couple Of Years Ago
The Press of Atlantic City reports from New Jersey. “House prices fell about 1 percent in the Atlantic City metropolitan area in the fourth quarter of 2007, a federal survey said Tuesday, the area’s first decline since the recession of the 1990s. Franklin Williams, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors, said he and others in the industry there hadn’t seen significant price weakening.”
“‘Actually, it’s looking like the first quarter of this year is going to be above the last,’ said Williams, who is a broker in Ocean City.”
“A real estate professional who works in Philadelphia and has a house in Margate said the new figures are just starting to reflect significant price drops in the market. Marc Wiser, VP of Legend Properties, was shocked by Realtor figures earlier this month suggesting prices in Atlantic County were still going up.”
“‘It makes no sense, when every single property that is within blocks of my Margate house has been lowered due to a lack of activity,’ Wiser said then.”
“The housing price decline reported in the federal survey makes more sense, but it too has further to go, he said.”
“‘The house next door to mine was listed at $799,000. It’s now $535,000. Around the corner a home was listed for $649,000. It’s now $449,000. Both have been on the market well over two years, and I can go on and on,’ Wiser said.”
The Village Voice from New York. “This is what the subprime meltdown looks like: block after block of brick one and two family homes in this working class neighborhood in the northeast Bronx are for sale, in foreclosure proceedings or simply abandoned.”
“There are six homes in foreclosure or headed there on one short block of East 217th Street, just off the commercial district of White Plains Road. And Nancy Lewis on the corner of the next block is getting notices from Washington Mutual, who sold she and her handyman husband a $400,000 mortgage in 2006.”
“‘A lot of people got scammed,’ she said. ‘People got riped off. Mhmm. And I’m one of them,’ she said, shaking her head.”
“In 2006 Williamsbridge had one of the highest rates of homeownership in the Bronx, 31 percent, nearly matching the citywide average, according to data analyzed by NYU’s Furman Center for Real Estate and Public Policy.”
“With a median household income of $31,000, many people in Williamsbridge couldn’t afford to pay their mortgages to begin with.”
“‘A lot of people are complaining about it, how they are losing their houses,’ said Richard Duodu, owner of the African Market. ‘Most of my customers, they own their own houses and another one. If it’s affected the house owners, it’s affected the businesses too. People come in and they are counting their dollars, how much can they spend?’”
The Daily Gazette from New York. “The slump that dogged the Capital Region’s housing market throughout last year has followed it into 2008, leading to a 20 percent drop in sales in January, according to statistics released Monday by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors.”
“The downturn was most pronounced in Albany County, where sales plunged 36 percent. January’s results marked the softest sales activity GCAR has posted for the month in over five years.”
“Some Realtors blamed the slowing rise of home values on the mounting negative financial news that has emboldened potential buyers. Patrick DeVaney, with the McCurdy Real Estate Group in Latham, said he has seen an increase in ‘goofy, low-ball’ offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price.”
“‘The trick is now getting the buyers and sellers to agree on a price,’ DeVaney said.”
“Given that 2007 ended on an especially slow note, that sluggishness might also be reflected in GCAR’s February sales results, said GCAR President Marie Bettini. ‘This market is a good market. It’s not the craziness that it was a couple of years ago,’ said Bettini.”
The Connecticut Post. “Jobs. Get those back and the housing market will take care of itself. That’s what Phyllis Esposito-Doyen, a 25-year veteran real estate professional, said Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Commerce published a disheartening report on the fortunes in the real estate market.”
“Esposito-Doyen, a Trumbull ReMax agent, said the market here has gone through a readjustment and appears to be returning to sanity. ‘It’s a bumpy market,’ she said, but that should have been expected after the outrageous run-up in prices that occurred here.”
“Like mold enveloping a house, the foreclosure crisis is spreading out beyond the state’s urban centers, such as Bridgeport, and starting to eat away at the fabric of suburban communities. January foreclosures in Connecticut continued to rise, according to RealtyTrac, propelling the state into the top 10 nationally based on rate of filings.”
“Connecticut, at number eight, helped round out RealtyTrac’s top 10 list, which now includes some of what, until recently, were the hottest real estate markets of the last decade — Nevada, California, Florida, Arizona and Colorado. There were 3,697 foreclosure actions taken in Connecticut in January.”
“This is not the first time Connecticut has been in the top 10. In April 2007, Connecticut had the third-highest foreclosure rate in the nation and it remained in the top 10 in May and June before falling off the top of the list in July.”
“The difference between Tuesday’s RealtyTrac report and those from 2007 is where the foreclosures took place. In 2007, the foreclosures were happening in Bridgeport, New Haven and Hartford. Now, those white-and-black auction signs are popping up more frequently in suburbs like Fairfield and Milford as well as Stamford.”
“Tuesday, there were 2,100 families in those same communities who had entered preforeclosure. The bulk of the distressed families in these 14 communities remain in Bridgeport, which accounts for about 40 percent of the homes in preforeclosure, but the numbers in other communities have doubled and tripled in just two months.”
“In reaction to the Democratic proposal, Gov. M. Jodi Rell told reporters that funding restrictions within the Connecticut Housing Financial Authority, such as federal guidelines, could limit the extent it is able to assist homeowners.”
“Speaking to reporters in her Capitol office, Rell said lawmakers should craft a bill that would protect the state if homeowners can’t meet the terms of mortgage support.”
“‘Is it going to be credit worthy for us to be able to loan money out?’ Rell said. ‘You want to protect those investments so that you’re not losing funds and you’re at least administering it in such a way that the people who qualify will, in fact, pay off that loan.’”
“The new proposals follow in the wake of a slew of programs unveiled by private lenders and state and local governments during the last year. But groups like the Association of Communities for Reform Now told the Connecticut Post in previous interviews this does nothing but delay the date people get thrown out into the street.”
“And Tuesday, the head of RealtyTrac wondered the same thing. ‘The big question is whether those efforts are truly helping owners avoid foreclosure in the long term or if they are just temporarily forestalling the inevitable for many beleaguered borrowers,’ RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said.”
The Gloucester Daily Times from Massachusetts. “Numbers released last week by The Warren Group sounded an alarm: with 800 foreclosures statewide last month, Massachusetts had hit its highest numbers since August of last year.”
“Essex County saw a 268 percent increase in foreclosures over last year, with a total of 1,038 homes seized.”
“‘Everybody was seeing home prices go up so fast, it was very tempting to participate and join in the real estate market,’ CEO Tim Warren said.”
“‘What I find astounding is that 30,000 homes entered into the foreclosure process last year (statewide),’ Warren said. ‘That’s 30,000 desperate households that have to do something, 30,000 distressed properties. Only 50,000 homes were sold across the state.’”
“Warren said experts differ on whether the real estate market has ever seen a crisis of this magnitude, but that some believe foreclosure rates were higher during the last major real estate downturn in the mid-1990s.”
“‘In that case, the real estate market turned down for five straight years and then took five years to turn back,’ Warren said. ‘I’d certainly hope we aren’t in that type of cycle again.’”
The Salem News. “The number of foreclosures on the North Shore more than tripled last year, according to figures from the Southern Essex Registry of Deeds. ‘There has been a large increase of (abandoned) properties,’ Peabody Building Inspector Kevin Goggin said. He cited a number of reasons, including foreclosures.”
“‘We’re seeing a few more empty houses, which is highly unusual,’ Tom St. Pierre, Salem’s building inspector, said. ‘When you see an empty house, (usually) there’s a For Sale sign up on it. Now, we’re seeing empty houses with nothing up.’”
“The foreclosure problem has become so serious that last week the Southern Essex Registry of Deeds launched a program to help North Shore residents find out who owns empty buildings in their neighborhoods.”
“‘We got a couple of phone calls from people who were looking to find out who the bank was that owned a piece of property,’ Register John O’Brien said. ‘It happened to me in my own neighborhood. A couple of my neighbors wanted to know about a foreclosed (house) that was just sitting vacant … and not shoveled. That got me thinking — this must be happening everywhere.’”
The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. “Are high prices a sign of Boston’s success, or a damper on that success?”
“An opinion piece in the latest issue of Banker & Tradesman that argued Massachusetts needs more home construction — even now, when the market appears glutted — because housing prices are too high and only a lot more homes can change the situation.”
“The writer is Benjamin Fierro of the Home Builders Association of Massachusetts, which has a professional interest in the debate.”
“The basic argument is certainly correct. The current drop in housing prices is extremely modest compared to the climb that preceded it. The middle of the Massachusetts market is still roughly twice as expensive as it was a decade ago. And while prices are likely to keep dropping in the coming months, almost no one thinks we’re on our way back to 1997 prices, even adjusting for inflation.”
“But a recent research note from the Boston Fed says: ‘While young professionals do spend a greater share of their income on housing in New England, they tend to earn enough to purchase a home in the region…’”
“Are Boston’s housing prices sending young professionals to other cities? A recent editorial in the Salem News tells the story of Maureen Hentz, a recruiter for a company based in Danvers, who says that job candidates routinely reject her offers of six-figure salaries because they’d rather buy a larger house in another state.”
“‘I can’t get somebody to move from Cleveland to here,’ the paper quotes Hentz as saying.”
“The mayor of Salem is quoted as responding, ‘I’ve been to Cleveland, and you can’t touch what we have here.’”
Re the NJ story. Williams is wrong. Wiser is right
I looked up Legend Properties’ website. They do commercial, so maybe Wiser doesn’t have as much interest to cover up the truth about residential.
Those examples he gave represent a 30-33% shave off the wishing prices of 2 years ago. This is the reality the REIC is trying to hide under the table.
High levels of denial here in South Jersey with Spring upon us.
Do you know anything about the vacation rental market?
I know two-three years ago you had to book a year ahead of time. Has it slowed any?
The last two years were the first years that any of my customers have ever complained about empty weeks before the season even started. As you note they are usually prebooked before spring. That said overcrowding of units is becoming an issue, meaning that we are seeing more people crowding into the same units, with sleeping bags and such, as prices have gotten out of hand.
Restaurants complain - and I have seen it firsthand - that housing costs so much that people don’t eat out as much. Changeover days are crowded at the supemarket as people shop for a week of home cooking supplies.
The bottom line is the rents just won’t cover the inflated prices and won’t until a good forclosure storm puts them iin the hands of another owner at reduced a price.
“While prices are likely to keep dropping in the coming months, almost no one thinks we’re on our way back to 1997 prices, even adjusting for inflation.”
Let’s send the Globe a message. Does anyone believe we are going back to 1997 prices, adjusting for inflation? I certainly do.
I do as well. I wonder whether the globe thought that the housing market would tank at all? I don’t give anyone any credence in their outlook unless they called the bust to begin with.
Does anyone believe we are going back to 1997 prices, adjusting for inflation? I certainly do.
I think it all depends on how deep the receission will be, the impact of high oil and gas prices, the impact of inflation, the impact of the financially tapped out consumer and the growing inventory of homes.
I think a couple of questions need to be answered first that will help determine to what level or year the housing prices will fall back to. When the dust clears from the above impacts to the consumer, how many consumers will be left standing with cash and good credit that will be able to purchase a home? How will incomes and jobs hold up after the impacts of the above mention hit’s it’s peak and will the incomes be in-line with housing prices or will rentals remain lower?
If prices fall back to the year 2000, then home prices would be back in line with the long term growth rates. However, if the questions I mentioned do go south further, it will certainly have a downward impact on home prices.
I think this recession is going to uncover the structural problems in the US economy which has been papered over since the mid-90s. The chickens are going to come home to roost with a vengeance.
depends
1997 NYC co-op prices were extremely undervalued. most people who bought them had incomes higher than the cost of the co-op. now it’s at around the 3 to 1 ratio
my building the average 2 bedroom apartment costs around 3 to 1 income ratio based on a 20% down payment and the average family income of the area which is required for pretty much every co-op you buy here
Its all about affordibility; prices are off, from peak, around Boston by about 20-25%. I think the median is still too high relative to wages and another 20% is left to go.
I think there will be a plunge this spring but, after that hit, prices will probably only drift down/stay flat as they did after the 1990 correction here. Someone looking at a good sized home around the Plymouth area, in foreclosure for $450k, was told to wait and make an offer of $250….they said the bank would negotiate big time.
Anyone who’s thinking housing prices are going to improve around here has no understanding of a) economics b) history c) the fact that people aren’t moving into MA anymore.
I disagree, here in Western Queens, new Co-Ops and Condos are asking $500K for one bdrm. That is so far above the 3x income. I think you overestimate the median income, even in Manhattan, where it is hard to find a 2 bdrm for under a mil.
I am going out on the limb…prices in some areas will dip below 1997 levels..
‘Over the years, Flaherty has seen his share of ups and downs in the real estate market. Housing news has been bleak lately for sure, but Flaherty says he’s optimistic that the tide is starting to turn, both nationally and locally. ‘The worst is over,’ says Flaherty, who has bachelor of science degree from Oswego State University. ‘If you don’t own a home, now is the time to buy.’
‘Q: What’s your take on the local housing market right now? Is the worst over, or are we in for more bad news in terms of falling prices? A: If you are buying and selling, you buy low and sell low; this creates a wash. If you are just selling, this is not the ideal time to maximize value.’
‘Q: What role does fear play in the national housing market? Are prospective buyers too afraid these days? A: The media drives trends and puts a scare into buyers. The present market created a buying opportunity that you shouldn’t pass up. Buy low, sell high.’
‘Q: What would you say to a prospective homebuyer who’s been sitting on the sidelines for the past few months? Is it time to buy? A: You need to be in it to win it. You need to look now — if the right house comes along, buy it.’
‘Q: Saratoga Springs has been one of the hottest segments of the local market for the past 10 years, but what’s next? Do you see any of the other cities enjoying a similar kind of renaissance? A: I hope it is Glenville [where he lives].’
‘Q: What’s your favorite book involving the world of real estate and homes? A: ‘The Millionaire Real Estate Agent: It’s Not About the Money . . . It’s About Being the Best You Can Be!’ Q: Why do you like it? A: The author gets it!’
‘Q: In 25 years, where will the region’s hottest real estate spot be? A: Saratoga. Q: Will you be living (and owning) there yourself? A: No.’
Here’s something for this clown to read. If he can read.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/66475-housing-bulls-indiscriminant-appetite-may-cause-heartburn?source=side_bar_editors_picks
“indiscriminant”? lol. Never let the techie write your headline.
I spent my bachelor years and cut my teeth in Saratoga Springs, NY. The smoke, mirrors and mystique related to it is complete BS. The real estate mobsters have all the native folk believing that happy days are just around the corner and everyone is going to hit the big time and let me tell you, the natives are holding onto it like an ethiopian dives for the last bowl of rice. Saratoga has always had a speculative element to it because it’s mystique surrounding the Whitneys/Vanderbilts/race horses and the supposed “healing waters” has always been pumped.
“A: You need to be in it to win it. You need to look now — if the right house comes along, buy it.”
I never considered the “Lottery” approach to home ownership (you gotta play to win.)
Probably because most lottery tickets don’t cost $300,000.
My favorite lottery slogan: You can’t lose if you don’t play.
Or as Peter Gabriel sang when he was with Genesis, “Gambling only pays when you’re winning.”
I reckon speculating on overpriced POS condos only pays if they’re other GFs, but looks like the NAR disagrees….
“I know what I like, and I like what what I have…”
Yea, that’s true, but you are missing the way this lotto works.
IT cost you NOTHING to buy a $300,000. IN fact, with the right loan, you can walk away with cash at closing. So, if the price goes up, you win. IF the price goes down the lender loses.
why not play??
In the immortal words of Joe Pesce (Raging Bull):
“If you win, you win. If you lose, you win. You can’t lose!”
“Patrick DeVaney, with the McCurdy Real Estate Group in Latham, said he has seen an increase in ‘goofy, low-ball’ offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price.”
Wahhh. So sorry that your ‘goofy, low-ball’ commissions are getting wacked. In six months you’ll be begging for those ‘goofy’ offers, scumbag.
Caught my eye too, and my thought was “I’ve seen a persistence - - not an increase - - of goofy, shoot-for-the-moon listing prices that are about $50,000 to $200,000 over a home’s actual value.”
…….that was “market fundamentals” at work.
RICH baby-boomers, with lots of money were buying everything up creating bid wars. Now, what do we discover?? They were not rich at all. They had CREDIT, lots and lots of EASY MONEY.
Now, it’s time to pay the loans back, Mr. Rich Baby-boomer.
Clowns like this guy have no idea what’s going on and I’m sure they don’t care, it does not register in their pea sized brain. They can’t see beyond the big nose on their face, and I am sure believe any minute now the big turn around will occur.
And that big nose is growing, just like Pinocchio’s.
I don’t know why people give Used House Salespeople so much credit to begin with. Most of them are morons that can’t see beyond the “comps” and have no inkling whatsoever at the big picture. It would be like expecting a used car salesman to give you stats on drag coefficient, parts availability, percentage of models leased, etc. Ain’t gonna happen.
Does anyone (am I am thinking Chicagoland here) actually make offers within $40K of a home’s list price anymore? How very 2004!
In the higher cost areas, you’re crazy to offer within 100K of asking price. At least here in FL we are looking for 50% off, or about 200K on a 400K home. That’s not here yet, but we are on the way.
Friend of mine was selling her house for $369k. She got a “goofy, low-ball offer” of about $320k-something, and did what sellers are wont to do, which is brush it off as insulting. That was last April, before she even did any fix-up on the house. “I’m not going to give it away” were her exact words!
Now she is hoping and praying that the latest two prospective lookers come through for her in March with their proposed contract offers of… $300k! And she’ll jump at the chance to sell at that price now, she says! My, my, how things change.
The only thing goofy about last year’s offer was that it was too HIGH!
For me, I hope she gets no offer and is forced to keep making mortgage payments. Then she will realize that housing is an EXPENSE, not a free ride to riches. I hope to see a lot more underwater “owners”.
Actually, the house is paid off, so she feels like she can wait. yet she’s not even living in it! What a waste.
Unfortunately, as I pointed out to her last year, each month of waiting for a better price means $3000/12 in property taxes, $500/12 in insurance, and $50 in various minimal utilities. Add on the interest she’d have made from $300k in the bank, and you’re talking about (after taxes on the interest) over $1k per month, every month, in direct costs and opportunity costs.
And that’s BEFORE the hit she’ll take on the lower offer price that she might (she wishes, please) get.
Then her statement about “giving it away” makes no sense whatsoever. She probably has owned it for years, bought at about 1/4 the asking price.
In Southshore MA: I routinely offer ~80% of town-assessed value which itself is generally 15 to 20% below 2005 bubble prices. List prices are these days close to assessed values here. Considering that typical home lists for ~300 K, my offer would be 60K less. Of course, sellers are holding out, waiting for the summer selling season.
“With a median household income of $31,000, many people in Williamsbridge couldn’t afford to pay their mortgages to begin with.”
and there you have it in a nutshell
the bronx is burning part deux
I liked the comment that these Bronx buyers had two homes they couldn’t afford, one to live in and one for “investment”…all on 30k a year.
“Some Realtors blamed the slowing rise of home values on the mounting negative financial news that has emboldened potential buyers. Patrick DeVaney, with the McCurdy Real Estate Group in Latham, said he has seen an increase in ‘goofy, low-ball’ offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price.”
“‘The trick is now getting the buyers and sellers to agree on a price,’ DeVaney said.”
ROTFL. We’ve read this daily since 2006!
REIC, buyers are cautious because:
1. They don’t qualify for a home they want to buy.
2. Rent is half off!
3. Everyone knows someone stuck with their previous home; thus they’ll lose two homes to foreclosure.
4. Everyone knows a flipper with multiple properties they are trying to unload.
5. “Jingle mail” is making the MSM because its back.*
* I like the alternate phrase, “throw the keys on the roof,” but hey, “Jingle mail” is catchy.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I just don’t understand these RE agents at all. They are in a transaction based business. Larry Yun should be out there telling the world that prices are waaaay too high and sellers need to lower prices.
They should be leading the charge on short sales and pressing banks to lower prices.
http://blog.franklyrealty.com/
That will show you how the REA’s think. Two little gems from that blog:
“Advice for Buyer agents & Listing agents: If you get one (a short sale) to close, change the remarks to SHORT SALE, NOT TO BE USED AS A COMP in hopes that the appraiser will take that into consideration and not trash the neighborhood (buyer agents, demand it of the listing agent to try to help your client’s “deal” not turn into destroying his own investment).”
“Once I went to a “large” real estate company meeting to teach them about blogging. The broker ended the meeting with a pep rally style, “Now go out there and get some price reductions!” Are you kidding me? It shouldn’t be a battle between the agent and the client, but instead the agent fighting to NET the client more.”
I’ve never quite understood this part of real estate. In every other business its the buyer aka man with the money thats god.
But in real estate it seems that people think its reversed and the seller is somehow in control.
Except for brief periods at the height of bubbles sellers are always the weakest in a transaction.
Check out real estate industry sponsored article today….
“Under-$200,000 market gives home sales a push
Affordability lures first-time buyers, investors”
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0229biz-ev-lowendhousing0229.html
Read between the lines….. If you want to sell, lower the price!
“They should be leading the charge on short sales and pressing banks to lower prices.”
Here’s why not: Just a few years back, when they sold them the house they are now trying to unload, they told them that REAL ESTATE was a boom that wouldn’t bust. Prices were going to rise 20% per year into the future, continuously. IF they didn’t buy NOW, they would be priced out forever…….you know all the stories.
NOW, having made all those claims to all these suckers, how can you look the former buyer, who is now a seller, in the face and say………You are way over-priced! You need to sell at below your debt level. Some great opportunity, heh?
They don’t give a crap about their former FB’s, they only care about their commission. Even those with a shred of ethics wouldn’t likely list their same FB house for sale again. IMO, they simply can’t talk about lower prices too much because no one wants to buy an asset that’s falling in price as we speak.
Sorry, bad form to reply to my own post, but I simply want to clarify that those with a “shred of ethics” (who would have shame to look their FB’s in the face and say they were wrong) wouldn’t likely list their former FB’s, not because they wouldn’t if they could, but simply because most FB’s aren’t going to use the same idiot that screwed them in the first place, at least I hope not.
Despite the official NAR press, every single realtor I have talked to privately in the past year acknowledges that the sky is falling. Some of the smarter ones even get that the market ain’t coming back tomorrow. Although we’ve seen evidence that they are trying to get sellers to lower their wishing prices, since obviously they make their money on actual sales, if they fan the flames too much (saying that prices are falling), they of course run the risk of keeping buyers on the sidelines. So I’d say they’re in a tight spot.
Definitely agree that on the individual agent level, I understand they have to tell the owner what they want to hear to get the listing. That’s life.
I think the overall NAR, the association, should be telling America that prices are too high. Have Lawrence Yun tell the truth so individual realtors can then act like victims too.
“Jingle mail” is catchy.
That was a catchy phrase during the holidays, but we are now entering spring so I came up with this phrase:
Spring has sprung and the grass has ris, I wonder where the homeowner is. As the grass gets higher, realtors wonder where is the home buyer.
“Gooffy low ball offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price”
That’s just the opening bid amigos. I intend to close the deal at 20 cents on the dollar. Yep, 20 cents, and I am paying cold hard cash. You want more and I will introduce you to 50 cents, the rap star. He may just be interested.
“Some Realtors blamed the slowing rise of home values on the mounting negative financial news that has emboldened potential buyers.
The realtors are up to their same old game blaming everyone but themselves for the housing bubble. To me it looks like the truth about the financial news is a hard pill for the chearleader realtors to swallow. I wonder if those realtors ever heard of the meaning of fiscal reponsibility.
In the Newspeak of realtors, buyers are the focus of ‘bad’ deflationary forces - they want to spend less. Sellers on the other hand fulfill the ‘good’ role: they are inflationary forces (and closer to the ever-expanding consumer debt model currently in vogue) and so insist that their home sell for an ever greater price.
Conditions or events that empower buyers will always be viewed as destructive.
Why would they?, the public is sold on Dream Houses. Let them dream on. New Rule: When you Die you must be buried in your Dream House. Sweet Dreams.
“‘A lot of people got scammed,’ she said. ‘People got riped off. Mhmm. And I’m one of them,’ she said, shaking her head.”
Yeah, you were “riped off” alright, but what are the chances you can get a rebate on your eight grade math class?
Yeah, you were “riped off” alright, but what are the chances you can get a rebate on your eight grade math class?
Better ask about the spelling class too.
New York City residents are not entitled to an education. They are required to pay taxes for massive school spending elsewhere in the state. If NYC residents were entitled to an education, the state would be bankrupted by the consumer lawsuits that would ensue.
I just saw a home listed in a “Gatted Golf Community”.
Must be a rough golf community, if the residents have to carry a gat.
LMAO, tresho! You just made my day. As a matter of fact, the ex and I used to live in a gatted community in South Florida before moving to the Tampa area. The villa next door to ours was broken into at “gat-point”, some creepy friend of the owner’s daughter who had purple hair and all sorts of unusual piercings.
Not “gutted” by any chance?
That wasn’t her mistake. It was the reporter’s. The Village Voice must not have a copy editor. I cringed when I saw “sold she and her husband a…”
“I cringed when I saw “sold she and her husband a…”
I caught that one, too. Who the heck can get an education anyway, with the emphasis on ebonics and “multiculturalism” and what have you? How about an emphasis on things like “reading, writing and ‘rithmetic”, what a concept?
Fo’ shizzle, y’all. Get with da times.
“Some Realtors blamed the slowing rise of home values on the mounting negative financial news that has emboldened potential buyers. Patrick DeVaney, with the McCurdy Real Estate Group in Latham, said he has seen an increase in ‘goofy, low-ball’ offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price.”
———————————————————————-
NY’s Capital District is the epicenter of bubble denial. I think they have a factory there churning out koolade and millions of doses of stupid pills…..
Look… When you could buy a house there for $20-40k in 1999 and now those same shacks have fantasy prices of 200-400k, I’d say that sellers are getting a bargain. Pat DeVaney needs to lose is bull$hit sense of righteous indignation and wrap his empty skull around the hard reality of historic prices and the current economic decline of the Capital District. Those folks are holding on to 2005 for dear life, with every last square inch of skin getting torn from them as they get dragged back in time. They are nice people but they took the RealTard bait…. hook line and sinker. Nope….. you’re not sitting on a million dollar lottery ticket. The truth is you’re lying to yourselves and in complete denial of whats coming in your direction.
/rant off. Ben knows how to swat the nest in Exeterland.
Thank you exeter. You gave me the best medicine. LAUGHTER
No problem. Rants are usually humorous to the casual observer but given the raft of BS out of the RE CrimeSyndicate in NY’s Capital region, I couldn’t hold back. The RE scumbags built a huge dam to floated their lies but the holes in it are quite obvious except for those on the other side. There are pipe dreams of Trump-esque style proporations in and around Albany. The happytalk there would make you fall out of your chair. Some a$$wipe is trying to market million dollar condos is glens falls!!!! WTF!!!!! They’ve completely lost their minds. Glens Falls is a declining mill town with no future. Think Pittsburgh or Allentown.
I wonder how many Realtwhores will be telling tall tales to each other about how great the commissions were in 2005, before the media created the New Depression? As they survey the rows of cabbage they pick in their new gig; at their new Federal Resettlement lodgings out in the sunny plains of Maricopa County?
Oh wait, is it too early for sneak previews???
“Jobs. Get those back and the housing market will take care of itself. That’s what Phyllis Esposito-Doyen, a 25-year veteran real estate professional, said Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Commerce published a disheartening report on the fortunes in the real estate market.”
Well, according to the Manchurian Candidate, those jobs are GONE and they’re NOT coming back. Of course, McManchu thinks those jobs can be replaced with other jobs, although he’s neglected to say what those jobs might be and how people would be “retrained”.
But it is true that no real estate market can be stable without resting on a firm foundation of jobs and decent pay. That’s why this whole Ponzi scheme fell apart. We just couldn’t continue selling houses to each other and the HELOC gravy train had to run out sooner or later.
Speaking of which, I’ve been following a condo here where I live. The folks who purchased it used fear to intimidate the lady into a lower price than was originally agreed to, at closing. Similar units here are tax valued at about $150,000 or so, not that I’d pay that. They got it for $116,000.00. And I’m thinking, well, good for them, they did get a deal. OH, BUT WAIT! They just took out a $40,000 second mortgage! This crap is STILL going on. I give it a year before the place is stripped and abandoned.
“Jobs. Get those back and the housing market will take care of itself. That’s what Phyllis Esposito-Doyen, a 25-year veteran real estate professional, said Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Commerce published a disheartening report on the fortunes in the real estate market.”
The decline in real estate started with no loss of jobs. Those job losses have come later as a result of the decline in RE and related spending. The real issue is wages. Job losses will accelerate the decline in RE, but it’s increasing wages that would put a floor under the current price declines. I don’t recall recessions as being especially good for wage growth.
“The decline in real estate started with no loss of jobs.”
Not so sure about that, in some areas, it wasn’t so much that the jobs were lost, they weren’t there to begin with and hadn’t been for some time, but people were living on the HELOC gravy train, trying to maintain a standard of living. The bubble has masked the disappearance of jobs to some degree, IMO. Yep, wages need to increase, but I agree, that’s not gonna happen. And besides, you have to have a job to begin with in order to get a raise.
I’m still stunned by my neighbors and their second mortgage. Superficially, they look like they’ve got it made, with their boat and Mercedes, but I had a feeling that something stunk like 10 day old fish.
“The decline in real estate started with no loss of jobs.”
It’s more nuanced as you’ve described. I could have phrased that better. Overall wages and jobs have been stagnant for some time. Bubble areas got a temporary boost of higher paying RE-related jobs while some other areas (decreasingly industrial Midwest, e.g.) have been bleeding better paying jobs for a long time.
The bubble largely wasn’t driven by increases in jobs and wages and the beginning of the decline wasn’t driven by a change in employment. RE still has far to fall to come back in line with incomes. How far will it fall if job losses are coupled with declining rather than merely stagnant wages?
Well, whether Phyllis meant to or not, I think those lost jobs refer to the gutting of our production industries in this country over the past 30 years that McManchu (love it Palmetto) says aren’t coming back, NOT lost REIC jobs. We need those $15-$20/hr production jobs back, not $8/hr service jobs. BTW, if you want some insight into the woman Phyllis is, listen to what George Carlin says about women w/ hyphenated names. Classic
“how people would be “retrained”.
The “retraining scheme” is always popular around election time. Pols can hand out taxpayer money to local “community groups” who can turn out the vote, and in return run bogus “programs” that achieve nothing and leave the “retrained worker” free to apply for a job at burger heaven. Clinton used that scam to sell Nafta…and see how well that worked all thru the Rust Belt.
Without a manufacturing base, many Americans cannot earn a living wage. It is that simple.
And Robert Reich and Alan Blinder…Mr. Service Economy and Mr. Outsource all Manufacturing, respectively, betrayed their fellow citizens and should burn in hell.
A real estate professional who works in Philadelphia and has a house in Margate said the new figures are just starting to reflect significant price drops in the market.
Just got a call from a RE trying to sell me on (what I think is) an overpriced home. When I balked at the price, she told me that she just sold an $800K existing home (3500 sf) on the first day with three offers and six showings. Wealth divide, baby. They’re advertising Bentleys on the second page of the Inquirer; meanwhile, my next door neighbor is selling his used SUV to buy a used smaller car to save on gas money.
Funny you should mention SUVs in the Philadelphia area. Your friend’s experience notwithstanding, they’re still cluttering the streets.
So much so, that my mother is afraid to walk the dog at certain times of the day. Why? Because of the Mommy Parade that’s dropping off their pwecious little ones at the grade school down the street. (Yes, the school district offers bus service. But these SUV-wielding Mommies wouldn’t stoop to having THEIR kids ride the bus.)
“because housing prices are too high and only
way, way, way cheapera lot more homes can change the situation.”“The mayor of Salem is quoted as responding, ‘I’ve been to Cleveland, and you can’t touch what we have here.’”
Hey now! I live in Salem. Here’s what we got:
- A coal fired power plant on the waterfront belching toxins into the air.
- Quickly deteriorating road/bridge/public infrastructure, whole streets that are underwater when it rains.
- School system on the verge of collapse; mass teacher layoffs happening now.
- Convenient downtown shops selling essential witch costumes and gothic candles.
- Rapidly expanding population of welfare-driven immigration (The Point area).
- Excruciating traffic, poor access to major highways.
- Deteriorating housing stock.
- Depreciating housing stock.
- Aging middle class population base, swiftly rising property taxes.
You mean I can’t find any of this in Cleveland??
You also have witches.
No, we have flocks of unemployable goth losers who descend on the city from whatever cave they live in, to prance around for a week in October before going back to wherever they came from. The city panders to this one week, at the expense of the other 51. Thats why you can buy a witch costume or some gothic dingdong any day of the year downtown, but you can’t get a falafel or buy a screwdriver. You know, useful things.
The only bright spot is the state improving and expanding Salem State College. Even then, the city stepped up to sabotage plans to put a dormitory downtown, which would have spiced things up. Instead the city allowed developers to throw in a bunch of overpriced condos.
Salem has inept leadership.
Yeah, I had to fix the crapper the other day and that new falafel I just picked up made the job really easy. Thank you, falafel!
Apologies Craven, just too good to pass up.
The north shore has undeniable natural beauty and historic charm. However, if you can’t get a falafel there, screw it.
The only profitable and inflating market New England will have is adult diapers, Depends, hearing aids and dentures.
I’m confused by that quote. I think Salem is an underappreciated town and don’t understand why more people from Boston don’t live there. I will say that the Mayor shouldn’t knock Cleveland though. I’m from that area and there are amazing housing values there compared to Salem/Boston. Large, beautiful older houses can be had for under 200k in areas all around the city.
I live in the DC area, and work with some federal govvies, and one of them was being transferred from Seattle to DC. Apparently, the Federal Government will buy civil servants’ homes when they are relocating (much like some large corporate employers). Putting aside what an egregious abuse of taxpayer dollars this is, might this cause a surge of Federal employees to attempt to relocate to site offices far far away from DC, so they can get out from under their ridiculous mortgages? Meanwhile, transferees coming into DC would rent rather than buy new homes. If so, wouldn’t this add to the downward pressure on DC area housing prices? Thoughts?
The government does not BUY the homes but they do pay a relocation contractor to do so if it fails to sell. The price paid is the average of 2 independent appraisals which are ordered from a list of approved appraisers provided by the relocation company. Said appraisals must be within 5% of each other or a 3rd appraisal is ordered and the 2 that are closest together are then averaged to create the offer price. The employee has the option to accept or reject the offer. Sometimes they make money and sometimes they don’t.
I have been through this process several times (wife is a federal employee) and can attempt to answer any specific questions you may have.
Does this apply to government workers who choose to transfer to another location or just those who have no choice to relocate?
Well, it’s not a matter of choosing really. You apply for a job. If you get it then the government will move you as it is ‘to the benefit of the government’ to do so. If it is a directed reassignment-like when they consolidated the administrative folks nationwide to the Albuquerque service center-then the employee will receive relocation benefits if they accept the reassignment. If they refuse the transfer then they are out of a job.
New employees do not receive relo benefits. That is if you are not currently a government employee and you get hired then you are expected to show up for work at the location that hired you wherever that may be. They won’t pay to move you there.
Mezcal,
If it’s as you describe, then the process was misunderstood by the person who described it to me.
You are completely correct, and here’s just one agency’s policy to prove it: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/intranet/hrmd/relocation/pdfs/RelocationContractorServicesBrochure.pdf
“Putting aside what an egregious abuse of taxpayer dollars this is, might this cause a surge of Federal employees to attempt to relocate to site offices far far away from DC, so they can get out from under their ridiculous mortgages? ”
I know people that work for the gov’t too, and I’m not really hearing the gravy train treatment that alot of people go on about. Also, I can’t see it buying up all these overpriced “dwellings” here - they’d probably find a way to lay the workers off instead or reassign them locally. At least I would hope.
Also, I still don’t think the bust has really hit hard here yet. Until the defense contractors leave (and they will - I’ve seen it happen in Texas), there’s still lots of people making high enough incomes to prop up the prices. JMO
dc_renter,
I think the gravy train treatment will become apparent as this recession accelerates. Most important of which will probably be, the ability of federal employees to keep their jobs despite cuts elsewhere.
I agree the bust has not yet hit. I think the salad days of housing ended first in the exurbs (PWC, Loudoun, etc.) and is only now starting to radiate inward. i’m just now starting to see foreclosures hit N. Arlington. Sort of the inverse of the shockwave observed after a nuclear detonation.
“said he has seen an increase in ‘goofy, low-ball’ offers that are $20,000 to $40,000 below a home’s listed price.”
That is pretty goofy. Buyers need to lowball a lot better than that when looking at list prices $200,000 to $400,000 above actual value.
And more importantly, the chance of making that kinda income consistently for 30 years is slight to non-existent. The people who make real money don’t want to live in a crappy 1 bdrm in Western Queens.
BINGO
Craven, you forgot the $700K condos at the Salem Jail that will be at the foot of the new bypass road.