April 4, 2006

A Year Of Adjustment In The Heartland

A writer for the Kansas City Star compares his housing market to California’s. “There’s nothing like a quick trip to la-la land to reset your calibrations on the real estate market. After hearing some of the chatter about California real estate, I was more thankful than ever to live in the heartland.”

“Within the span of 24 hours, I heard the following stories: An established resident of San Francisco, who just happened to be raised in Rolla, Mo., went on about how his 1,400-square-foot home, less than two-thirds the size of my home, was in fact worth more than three times mine. The reason, he explained with supreme confidence, is the fact that housing supply is so tight, as if the nation’s housing supply stops at the western slope of the Sierra Nevadas. I suggested that he should get home to Rolla a little more often.”

“I was told about a sobering story in the San Francisco Chronicle detailing the prevalence of interest-only mortgages in that market. The newspaper reported that nearly 70 percent of Bay Area home buyers last year used interest-only mortgages to obtain their homes, up from just 18 percent in 2002.”

“A recent transferee to Los Angeles, who commutes 90 minutes one way in rush-hour traffic, explained why he’s a renter and not a buyer. His rent is roughly 60 percent of what it would take to buy a similar house, and he’s just waiting for the bubble to pop. Smart guy.”

“My point is that coastal real estate markets really are much bubblier than in these parts. It’s something to keep in mind as we sift through the local numbers. But make no mistake, folks. We’re increasingly in a buyers’ market right here in Kansas City.”

“In February, for example, the inventory of unsold new homes in the area stood at 5,488, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier. During the month, there were 476 new homes sold, down 2.2 percent from a year earlier. As a result, there was 11.2 months of inventory at the current sales pace, up from 10.3 months a year earlier.”

“‘It was a similar story when it came to existing homes. In February, the inventory of unsold existing homes stood at 12,578, up 31 percent from a year earlier. Existing home sales totaled 1,712 during the month, up 1.7 percent from a year earlier. In February, there was 7.3 months of inventory at the current sales pace, up from 5.7 months a year earlier.”

“It would appear that the inventory buildup is beginning to restrain sales price growth in the area. In February, the average new home sales price was $267,173, up a modest 2.3 percent from a year earlier. The average existing home price, meanwhile, stood at $147,795, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.”

“The message in the numbers is clear. We’re in a buyers’ market, which is defined by the industry as having more than six months of inventory on the market. Don’t expect the sort of knee-knocking market tremors that seem likely in California. But this is shaping up as a year of adjustment in the long-booming housing industry, even here on the home sod.”




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70 Comments »

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-04 08:18:31

Hope the flippers don’t see that there is some 147K property somewhere or they will all go down there by bus loads buying it up .I hope some areas can remain a little more bubble free ,but it looks like its a buyers market everywhere.

Comment by Michael
2006-04-04 13:33:49

It’s far too early to call it a buyer’s market everywhere.

 
Comment by ajh
2006-04-04 19:46:20

And if I was a guy or half of a couple on average wages and not a lot of savings in KC, I’d need some pretty fancy selling to pick a 267K new house over a 147K ‘used’ one.

 
 
Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-04 08:19:46

Aahhhh the good ol’ heartland of America.

I am always embarrassed when the relatives come out to Santa Barbara to visit. Average square foot cost to buy here is running about $675 sq. ft. for a decently remodeled home in a standard neighborhood ($1.5mil for a 2200 sq ft home w/ 2 car garage)

Don’t get me started on the prestigious parts of town… where the richies want to live. That’s a completely different price point.

Anywho, back to the embarrassment of house prices… For $1.5mil, I am sure you can purchase quite a spread- perhaps a waterfront lake home? I don’t know what building costs are in the Midwest, but my point is that although Santa Barbara is a fabulous place to live (I probably will never move…) the prices have just gone nutty (Tripling in “value” in just 5 or 6 years), and I believe we are in for a decent sized CORRECTION.

Hence the name “SB BubbleBeliever”

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-04 08:37:39

I think maybe you should go for a foreclosure when the time comes SB BUBBLE BELIEVER . You might have to wait for that to happen . I knew somebody in Santa Barbara that went around putting flyers on peoples doors asking if they wanted to sell ,(Get the damn real estate commissions, and snob SB real estate agents out of the way ). Wish you luck whatever you do.

Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-04 09:03:17

Housing Wizard-

Flyers on doorsteps… not a bad idea! Thanks for the support, I definitely know we are in for the long wait- We sensed that the market was getting WAY out of hand, and totally unrealistic- and thus took a big chance and sold a great home. Turns out that it was very lucky in our timing, as we got a great price and things have petered out since then. But I am first to admit that it is easy for sellers to get “aggressive” in their asking prices, but difficult for buyers to wait out any price corrections that might eventually come. But patience is definitely a virtue when it comes to the current Housing Bubble. As many have written, we are really in uncharted waters with this whole thing. SB prices might only stagnate for many years. That is the risk we took with selling. On the other hand, CNN money reports SB as the highest OVERPRICED area in all of the country, and I am hopeful that my gut feeling will play out in the coming months and years. No one really knows what is going to happen, but a few locals that know our situation are telling us that we are in a very good position in our “wait and see” posture.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 08:45:13

SB Bubble; It is impossible to justify to a someone from the mid west the quality of life that Santa Barbara offers…They just can’t fathom the prices….I feel the same about my abode (Santa Clara)…I also will likely never leave although, I am very concerned about my children…I am convinced they will not be able to achive the level of comfort I have and will need significant help from me to have a decent quality of life…So, if they left I would likely follow…

Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-04 09:09:13

SC Dave,

Alot of people I know here in SB are saying the same thing about Kids. It’s a very difficult situation for families that have “lived the good life”… meaning beautiful surroundings, architecture, culture, etc. but are forced with thoughts that the kids that got to grow up in this great environment may not be able to afford to stay. I think this is a topic throughout coastal california these days. One possibility for you to consider is to actually STAY in Santa Clara- and if need be, visit the kids often. I have actually left SB several times, only to find myself running back- and it would be great if your kids could at least have a place to come back to, and visit. Luckily, with prices stagnating and actually possibly correcting- we have a chance to stay in SB. The trouble with considering leaving your town is you run the risk of not getting back in, or at least keeping your great tax base that I assume you probably have. Good Luck to you!

Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 09:16:01

SB…..Thanks for the return comments…At least you gave it a try and left a couple of times…If i did give it a try, I would just keep my place and rent it thereby hedgeing that I may make a mistake….

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Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-04 09:30:07

Excellent IDEA to rent your place out! You keep the tax base and guarantee yourself a place in SC. Each time we have sold, our tax goes up. This is always part of the realistic “equation” when planning our future (”is it worth higher taxes to sell to move to a quieter street, etc, etc.”). We have always bought down our debt, but always weigh this benefit to the drawback of higher taxes. So far, it has been better for us to pay higher taxes and work toward “mortgage free” status… but one needs to be careful. A realistic person has to admit that Monthly payment DOES include amortized property taxes!

p.s. if you do rent out your place, fall in love with the new town/place- you always have the option to sell the SC pad. Getting back in, after realizing that you don’t like it there as much- is a harder nut to crack.

 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 10:18:51

YUP…..And your correct on the taxes…As you clearly know, prop #13 gives us a lot of protection particularly with the run up in values…Have a neighbor that just moved to a more pricey zip….Taxes are 18 K a year….PLUS….a 2% increase every year…It never goes away…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by climber
2006-04-04 08:21:20

I think it’s pretty clear that in the heartland the mania and bubble was in the financing rather than the house prices. Colorado prices are pretty tame compared to CA and have lagged behind the nation for 5 years, but our percentages of I/O and ARM loans was around #4 highest in the nation. That doesn’t set the stage for a rosy future.

The Smith pair that did the report we commented on yesterday forgot one key criteria. A house is clearly overpriced for you if you can’t afford it, it doesn’t matter what it would rent out for, or how much it will be “worth” next year. If you can’t afford it you can’t afford it. People are borrowing too much money. In CA it’s to buy crappy little houses where I live it’s to buy a bigger house. It’s a debt mania which is why it doesn’t necessarily show up in prices in every market.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-04 08:27:10

Well said climber. I agree with you 100%

 
Comment by tellall
2006-04-04 09:37:02

Story in the Cincinnati Enquirer saying the same thing. Ohio has the highest foreclosure rates in the country followed by Indiana. And this was even before the craze for ever larger homes, miles away from other civilization, and enormous heating bills. I just don’t know what to expect. Here in Cincinnati there is no price bubble but it is hard to tell how many people are stretched too thin and heavily in debt.

Url is at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060323/BIZ01/603230313/-1/all

 
 
Comment by greenlander
2006-04-04 08:21:43

Ben, your blog rules!

 
Comment by DC_Too
2006-04-04 08:23:10

“An established resident of San Francisco…went on about how his 1,400-square-foot home, less than two-thirds the size of my home, was in fact worth more than three times mine. The reason, he explained with supreme confidence, is the fact that housing supply is so tight…”

It really is refreshing to hear from a normal American who has wandered into the madness and recognized it for what it is….

 
Comment by greenlander
2006-04-04 08:30:42

These people are 111

Comment by greenlander
2006-04-04 08:35:38

Sorry, I need to go back to HTML school…

These people are SCREWED!!!

Comment by TheGuru
2006-04-04 09:04:47

Why do people who have lived in the same home for 45 years have any mortgage debt? Pay the damn thing off once and for all you clowns!

Comment by crash1
2006-04-04 10:03:20

I’m starting to see some very aggressive advertising for home equity loans. The idea of “free” money is just to much for some people to pass up.

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Comment by Steve in Flyover Land
2006-04-04 16:50:34

I also get tired of the phrase “cash out some home equity”. Selling part of a stock holding is cashing out equity. When you get a loan you are not selling equity in your house, you are borrowing. It’s not like if the house then goes down in value you don’t take the loss!

 
 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 10:22:08

Amen…

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Comment by Anachronist
2006-04-04 11:36:04

I have to agree. Most people would say “these folks probably ran into some hard times and had to borrow money to make it” My comment is why didn’t they have a safety cushion saved up so they didn’t have to borrow? I have 1 year’s salary saved and I’m only 32. These two are in theiur 70’s and have pensions….

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Comment by george_ie
2006-04-04 08:34:23

For some reason, this Prosper.com loan listing made me laugh out loud:

http://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=4773

What the loan is for : Back in June of 2005 I bought a home lot with all utilities in Arizona City , Arizona. I bought this lot trough Erik Estrada’s (from CHiPs) real estate company. (That is what he’s doing now selling real estate). (Finally an honest job). However, they are charging me 15% interest rate. In just 10 months I’ve paid $2500 in interest on the loan and it is choking my investment.

Comment by Pismobear
2006-04-04 10:16:19

You should be able to get a 50% ‘land’ or lot loan on the property from your bank at prime plus 3% on a float interest only for one year, renuable, if your credit worthyness is as you say it is!! Private money should coast you the 15% you have now.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 10:24:12

Better yet, if you have liquid assets you may be able to borrow at 1% over the rate your earning…

 
 
 
Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
Comment by Norcal Ray
2006-04-04 08:57:02

nnvmtgbrkr,

how is the RE and mortgage market in your area? Are you in Reno?

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-04-04 09:44:40

Forgive me for being vague, but just south of Reno, but I do encompass that area. As far as how we’re doing here?…….in comparison to last year its’ dead, dead, and more dead. Inventory piling up, and not much moving. Some marked down low end stuff selling, but practically nothing over 400K selling and it just keep stacking up. The signs are everywhere and the folks here are just starting to get it. You’re starting to see a lot of nervous looks around here, because we are so codependent on this “housing boom” for a prosperous economy. It’s going to get real ugly, real soon.

I’ve seen this coming for some time, having lived thru the So Cal crash of the early 90’s. Started building a next egg a few years back instead off spending like this party would never end, as has been the case with most in my industry.( You’ve never seen so many grocery clerks turned real esate agents or loan officers driving around in Escalades and Mercedes around here. When I moved here, you couldn’t find a Mercedes) Sold my house last fall and socked the money in CD’s. I now rent a house for a $1,100 a month that would cost me 425K to buy (seriously….what a joke, huh?)

Comment by Norcal Ray
2006-04-04 12:14:51

nnvmtgbrkr,

thanks for the info. I used to see some ads in RE magizines in the SF Bay Area for Reno homes last year but don’t see them anymore. I think the price rises in Sac and Reno got too high vs. the Bay Area and there is a slowdown in people moving up north as there are more jobs in the Bay Area.
I had saw some homes in Reno that were less than the Bay Area but not enough of a difference to make it worthwhile to move unless a person is retiring. I bellieve this is why the Sac market is slow along the pull out of investors.

You made a great move selling your house and renting. Let the landlord subsidized your housing costs for a while. The market is clearly going down and you are right it will be tough soon.

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Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 09:17:00

Good read…

 
 
Comment by weinerdog43
2006-04-04 08:54:16

If only the midwest were immune to the bubble…we’re not. In my neighborhood in the western burbs of Chicago, they are still tearing down 2000 sqft. houses to build McMansions. These are listing well above $1M. Although the collapsing bubble will vaporize much in N. Virginia, FL and others, it most certainly will have an affect on the rest of the country. As the lenders hold more and more non performing assets, they’ll squeeze the midwest just like everywhere else. The only truly safe people are those who have paid off their note, and those who are living within their means. I wish I could be more optimistic. Hope I’m wrong.

Comment by David
2006-04-04 09:05:42

Price will fall in the Chicago area. Not nearly as much as Florida, San Deigo and the bubble markets.

David
Bubble Meter Blog

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-04-04 09:09:50

I used to live out there - Clarendon Hills area. Moved back to the east coast in May 2001.

I am pretty shocked to see what the condos out there go for now let alone the homes. I used to live in Stratford Green (rented a condo from someone). I cannot believe what those sell for now. So not worth it!

Comment by weinerdog43
2006-04-04 11:50:37

Born and raised in Hinsdale. Median SFH there now $687,000. Clarendon Hill a little less at $579,500. Still plenty of yuppies at the Country House. ;-)

 
 
Comment by Kathy
2006-04-04 10:17:47

Where do you live? They may be tearing down the homes and re-building, but the new homes don’t seem to be selling. In Elmhurst there are 67 houses for sale over $1,000,000 as of today. I have no idea how many months (years?) of inventory that is.

Comment by weinerdog43
2006-04-04 12:02:41

haloscan ate my previous comment.

Live in Naperville off Ogden Ave. Santa Barbara may be nice, but it’s days like these that make you happy to live in the midwest.

 
 
 
Comment by AZgolfer
2006-04-04 08:54:46

Inventory in Phoenix just keeps rising. Over 2300 now in Queen Creek. Glendale is over 1,500. Surprise was over 2300 last time I checked.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 09:04:12

AZgolfer…Question; Isn’t Jan - April the prime selling time for AZ ? Don’t things typically slow down during the summer because the winter birds have left ??

Comment by AZgolfer
2006-04-04 09:55:26

Last year I thought that May, June, July would slow down because who wants to move when it is 110 degrees, but it just kept going, going, going. July of 05 was the peak and it has died quickly since then. There are now over 2400 houses for sale in Surprise which has Sun City Grand, a over 50 golf communite. There are a ton of houses for sale due to the snow birds leaving pretty soon. I think most snow birds buy in the fall rather than have the cost for a vacant house in the summer.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 10:28:35

OK…Makes sence that they would buy when they come back….

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Comment by Mo Money
2006-04-04 14:11:44

snow birds rent or use motorhomes, you can’t buy, furnish, and sell a home every year.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by annamelbourne
2006-04-04 09:05:26

The heartland’s house prices are much lower than on the coasts, but that doesn’t mean the region is totally immune to the bubble/flipper mentality. I was in Lincoln, Nebraska, last week for a family wedding. I went to an open house in my sister’s neighborhood, just to see what’s what. The house, for sale by owner at $143,000, had been purchased less than a year earlier for $110,000. The seller had never lived in the house. The house price is low, but the 30 percent increase in asking price is not.

Comment by shel
2006-04-05 04:50:04

exactly…to some degree, the mania for RE buying *all over* affects everybody too. I think media and nation-wide adverts and coverage of appreciation rates, boomboomboom speak, latenite ads selling dvd-instruction on how to make your fortune in realestate, and low low rates causes bubbly activity in almost all regions.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-04 09:05:30

OT…Check this site by PMI on risky markets….

Welcome to The PMI Group, Inc. site

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2006-04-04 09:37:19

(The heartland’s house prices are much lower than on the coasts, but that doesn’t mean the region is totally immune to the bubble/flipper mentality.)

Or worse yet, the HELOC mentality. In USA Today’s article on the potential reset disaster, it didn’t report on California. It reported on a St. Louis couple in their mid-70s who had been in their house for 45 years facing a crisis because their mortgage reset, and having to go back to work and cut down on their medications!

 
Comment by John Law
2006-04-04 09:42:11

anyplace that’s getting equity refugees is going to have some bubble demand driving up prices.

 
Comment by deb
2006-04-04 09:49:51

I think the coming bust will affect most places pretty severely. Places like the heartland will get hit due to over supply. Places like California will get hit due to complete lack of affordability. Two different manifestations of the same bubble.

Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-04-04 09:57:11

deb — what’s the latest on the frontline in your location as far as sales, pendings, inventory, etc.? Your up-to-the-minute reports from the past few months in CA have been appreciated.

Comment by deb
2006-04-04 10:27:22

Inventory rising (up about 3x last year this time)
Closed sales volume off about 25%
Pending sales volume off about 33%
The median and average prices are flat since last summer, but still up substantially year over year. The spring sales season will either materialize and save this market (temporarily) with yet higher prices, or not. If prices do not increase by June, we will be flat y/y. So far, no price increases seem evident to me. This time last year prices were already well along in their spring bounce.

Lots and lots of BIG price reductions, but many of those homes were priced very unrealistically to begin with. It’s slowly softening, but not like some other areas (FL, San Diego, etc). No panic. Most people blissfully unaware that anything bad could ever happen. Just a return to “normal” 10% annual appreciation!

Comment by deb
2006-04-04 11:13:40

The above stats are for the San Fernando Valley.

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Comment by Mike_in_FL
2006-04-04 12:35:07

Thanks for chiming in. It’s always good to see the real stats from those with access to various MLS numbers around the country.

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Comment by Mort
2006-04-04 09:53:52

Inventory, inventory, inventory!! These bubble prices can’t last. There is a glut of supply everywhere in the midwest too! Prices may go up temporarily but over the long-term they are coming down hard. It is funny to watch investors think they can drive up prices by trying to corner the market in the midwest, what a joke! Uh, Mr. Flipper, I don’t need to buy your stupid spec. house, I can build my own dang house anywhere I want. Good luck running up prices because the dike is leaking and you are running out of fingers.

Comment by Mort
2006-04-04 09:58:02

Oh, I also really like to watch all these houses being built in tornado alley using styro board siding covered with brick. I don’t know how the heck the builders were able to snooker the building codes like that but I could poke my finger through the walls of most of the houses around here with very little effort. Half these houses won’t stand up to 100 mph wind load I bet.

Comment by Former Saratoga CA homeowner
2006-04-04 12:38:04

There aren’t any building codes at all in Lawrence County, MO. And the small town that I live in (SW MO) just instituted building codes 3 years ago.

 
 
 
Comment by safe_as_apartments
2006-04-04 10:04:33

I have a question that is a bit OT: Regarding Massachusetts’ law, does anybody here know whether a new owner of a property (including a bank!) has to honor a lease of any duration signed with the previous owners?

I ask because I am considering renting a $1200 property that was purchased in February 2006 for $280,000. My sleuthing has not turned up a mortgage amount, but given (a) that the previous owners flipped it (purchased in June 2005 for $190,000) and (b) the new owners are two young friends (who happen to be women), I’m not so sure they put the standard 20% down. (LexisNexis should have the info eventually, but not in my decision time frame.) So, you guys can run the numbers, but figuring 6% 30 fixed yields about $1500/mo. before taxes ($2700/year), insurance, and maintenance. Given the slow sales in MA and 0 appreciation, there is a good chance that we’ll see a sale in the next 2 years (maybe not if ARMed).

I need a property for 2 years. Can I sign a two year lease and expect a bank to honor me as tenants on their property?

Thanks for any info!

Comment by climber
2006-04-04 10:15:57

I’m no lawyer, but maybe you can insert some kind of language into the lease to make it binding on future owners. In that respect it would be kind of like a short term deed restriction.

Sometimes it is worth it to pay the fee and get a professional opinion.

Comment by Pinch a Penny
2006-04-04 10:56:49

AS far as I know, IANA, You can get evicted with a 30 day notice if the new owner wishes to occupy the property. There are very few restrictions on a 30 day notice. Eviction for non-payment, or eviction for complaining are extremely hard, expensive and take some time. Most landlors will just use the 30 day notice, and come with the sheriff at the end of the 30 days.
BTW, I have been noticing that same properties are coming on the market 1 or 2 years after being bought. This one (mls 70325112) is back, the current owner bought in 04 for 323K… It is now on the market for :-) 324K. That means that he is down at least 6% on realtor fees, and at least 6.25% interest per year for the two year period that he lived there.
Maybe he has one of those fancy 1% for 2 year mortgages. That would have been cheaper than renting.
Sucks to be him, and the house is not moving, with lots of competition.
Comparisons must be made with same houses… This one is perfect!

 
 
Comment by desidude
2006-04-04 11:04:23

you local realtor association should have standard lease agreement. check it out yourself

Comment by safe_as_apartments
2006-04-04 11:21:12

That’s already been done. Unfortunately, standard MA lease agreements do not seem to have a specific clause about sale or foreclosure of premises. It does mention that the lease is subordinate to the mortgage, but I don’t think that this clause answers my question.

Comment by weinerdog43
2006-04-04 12:00:21

safe as, I’m not licensed in MA, but in this case, you may well want to check out a local atty. who specializes in real estate contract law. A coverage opinion should run you about $300-$600. Plus, if he or she is wrong, you’ve got a legal malpractice case. ;-)

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Comment by safe_as_apartments
2006-04-04 13:31:15

Besides, a lease is a contract between me and the current owners, not the bank or future owners. It does not surprise me that it doesn’t include these stipulations or answer my question.

 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2006-04-04 10:48:27

I currently rent in San Dimas/Azusa (nice S.Cal area), new construction is being built, its at the beginning stage of leveling the foundation (1 year from today will be done), but theres a sign being touted as a new community development, between 3200 - 4500 sq ft range homes, asking price before home is even built, remember its just a big dirt lot right now, starting in the low millions (WHAT!!!) is what is said on sign, i wonder what the builder is thinking when he drives up/down the block (i do everyday to work) where there are signs everywhere of people selling there current homes, reduced price signs, even trade-ins and I dont see these houses moving and have been driving by for the past 6-7 months with the same signs there, oh except for some new incentives to try to move them, but no takers.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-04 10:53:55

$1M for San Dimas? Those builders are flopping nuts. Is the development next to “Bill and Ted’s Excellent University”. That is the only thing San Dimas is famous for. Oh yeah, and lots of smog.

Comment by Mike
2006-04-04 11:21:03

SO TRUE!!!! Glendora is a very nice area which is next door, but low millions being stated on the sign now, when there are no homes. I have a feeling the builder is going to sell out or walk away from the money pit that there building.

 
 
Comment by kc
2006-04-04 18:16:58

I live in KC (south of the Plaza). When I was looking for a house to rent about a year ago, it was pretty difficult finding anything decent, and I don’t particularly recall a lot of FOR SALE signs around, either.

In the last couple of months, though, there has been an explosion of FOR SALE signs (and to a lesser degree, FOR RENT signs) around here. I’m counting dozens on my morning commute (which is less than two miles–eat your heart out).

When I moved out of the house I was renting in Feb, my landlord seemed very wistful indeed. As I was leaving our last meeting, I noticed that her car had an “I buy houses” bumper sticker on it. Hmm. (She was a cool landlord, though.)

Anyway, the coasts may be the worst, but it might just be because we tend to lag behind a bit here.

(I did look a bit at CA real estate, as I had a possible job offer. I quickly discovered that moving to the Bay Area was simply out of the question. Real estate prices there are so absurd I don’t see how they get anyone (anyone with a family anyway) to move out there. Now if anyone asks, I quote my remunerative requirements in “square feet per hour”. :-)

 
Comment by skipintro
2006-04-04 19:52:52

Basically, in the long run (holding 10+ years), compared to most other areas, real estate in Cali remains a sure thing. I’m not being sarcastic.

Comment by chilidoggg
2006-04-04 22:21:16

in the long run we’re all dead

 
 
Comment by Ryan
2006-04-05 03:01:42

I live in the Indy area right now. I purchased my first home just last year. I knew to avoid Indy/Marion Co., as taxes are high and schools are not as good as surrounding county suburban schools. At first I was trying to stay under $110K. The downside was that all the newer homes in that area were foreclosures which usually were not in the greatest of shape. I saw folks in newer neighborhoods (up to 5 years old) pricing their homes for $135K while similar homes in foreclosures were priced at $110K. If a person _has_ to move, they will be screwed.
My realtor found me a home close to hers in an established neighborhood. The home was small (1,300 sq ft), but on an acre lot. The house does need some work: The master bath needs to be gutted, the driveway paved, and new gutters. The home was built in the late 60s and I paid $128K for it. The guy I purchased it from paid $134K just three years prior, but needed to get out. Since I plan on living here for at least 10 years, I went ahead and paid for it. I really should have asked for a few grand off, the “two car” garage only holds one car, as the furnace unit (an older, large one) blocks fitting two cars in there and the “Two baths” really is just one shower/tub, the other shower needs work. Anyways, I am next door to a brand new (less than two years) home. My realtors addition has homes priced in the $200-$300K. With that and the ability to add on the house if we have to stay (depending on what prices are in 10 years), I figured it was an ok deal. My lender tried to push me in to an ARM, I resisted and got an 80/15/5 deal instead. The HELOC started going up to almost 10% so I dumped my savings into it and now only owe $2K left.
In the “must have” county north of Indy (Hamilton), my relative got a nice large mostly vinyl home for $130ish. It was a spec home and other homes that are similar sold for $150K. A neighbor of his had some personal issues and they ended up in foreclosure. Their home was larger and offered more, I think they paid $160K for it. The home sold at an auction for, if I recall, under $130K. Talk about a hit! Even in small markets like Indy, prices are saying “Timber!”…and yet another builder (JP Morgan I think) is trying to build more $110-$160K homes just north of my Realtors neighborhood. I am sure they are pissed, building cheap homes next to nice all brick homes. I am hoping the bubble burst and that project is put on hold…forever!!!!

 
Comment by Ryan
2006-04-05 03:20:08

I live in the Indy area. I paid $128K for a 60s Bedford stone home. It’s 1,300 sq. ft. on an acre lot. What needed work was the fireplace, driveway (needs paved), gutters, and master bath. All in all, I think it would need $10K to update the home. I purchased the home because of the school system and that I could live here for many years if need be (I have an acre lot, plenty of room to expand if needed). I also am very close to newer additions with homes in the $180K to $200K. My addition is a street with homes built from all areas. No HOA either. My next door neighbor’s home is only 2 years old. So I figured that if I planned on living here for 10 years, hopefully prices will be the same when we/if we leave.
Builders are still crazy, a new addition to the NW of me (just north of where my realtor lives…in their very nice $220K homes) that will be filled with crappy homes. However, I am hoping the slowdown (builders don’t see it, “If we build it, they will come” thinking) causes a work slowdown on that project.
My relative lives in the ‘must have’ area north of Indy. He got a decent deal on a spec/model home..good for him because a neighbor with a better home (likely costs of $160K) went into foreclosure. That home sold for around $130K (a $30K hit…ouch!).
Three homes were for sale on my street. One was the same as mine pretty much, but likely updated. They wanted $162K!! My home, $128, theirs $162..with that $34K, you could easily spend $10K..make this house nice and bank $24K. Their price went down to the upper $150Ks, but I am not sure what it sold for. After three homes had “sold” signs on them, another neighbor who I think has money and just wanted out sold an awsome home for just $150ish. A nice older two story on an acre…who ever purchased the other home really screwed up. The two story home sold in two days. Another home that was “sold” then not is still asking over $200K. It’s likely 5 years old or so. They will sell for over $200K if they find a sucker.

 
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