Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Overbuilding? “The Home Builders Association of Fort Wayne has decided to skip the organization’s traditional Parade of Homes this fall. The HBA couldn’t get a minimum of six builders to commit to any one location. Builders complained ‘they already had enough inventory on the market; they didn’t need more,’ said Matt Lancia, the association’s president.”
Cheaper materials? “The slump in the housing market is starting to hurt to families in southern Douglas County. Swanson Group has closed its mills in several Oregon communities for the next couple weeks. ‘Ya know, prices today are at levels that they’re lower than the levels that I saw when I joined this company in 1977. We haven’t seen ‘em this low frankly since the early 80’s and that’s unadjusted for inflation,’ said CEO Steve Swanson.”
“‘My mom was just getting ready to buy a house and she’s not sure what she’s gonna do now. My husband and I have four little ones at home so it’s gonna be a big impact,’ said Gina Watson. Watson’s husband was among the workers that were laid off.”
Related fallout? “Tallahassee, Pasco school superintendent Heather Fiorentino is a realist, as she made perfectly clear to the School Board on Tuesday during a meeting and workshop where money became a pivotal issue. ‘It is going to be bad,’ Fiorentino told the board.”
“Even hot dogs are under scrutiny. Food and nutrition director Rick Kurtz told the board of plans to switch from hot dogs to turkey franks to save $25,000 through the rest of the year.”
Lower prices? “The housing slump does not discriminate on the basis of wealth with property values falling in parts of the upscale Hamptons, the New York Post said Friday. The median price of a single-family home in East Hampton, N.Y., has fallen below $1 million, the report said.”
“The neighborhood of posh, and really posh, beach property homes dropped 20.4 percent from a median price of $1.225 million a year ago to the relatively there-goes-the-neighborhood price of $975,000. ‘It’s really the $2-million-to-$3-million market, and the under-$800,000 houses, that are getting hit the hardest,’ one realtor said.”
Or foreclosures. “The numbers are spiraling out of control and Connecticut is taking a heavy toll. People are losing their homes, because they can’t pay the mortgage. ‘I love my house, I want my house, I want to keep it,’ Mary Henderson of West Haven said. ‘The mortgage started at 139 and I end up now paying $228,000 and I don’t understand how we got to this point.’”
“‘I just wanted a piece of the American dream, you see what I’m saying, cause I worked,’ Henderson said. ‘I worked, I earned it.’”
“‘Every counselor has a box of kleenex on their desks,’ Bridget Russell of Neighborhood Housing Service said.”
Are they mad?
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=148593&src=118
Are you doubting this suburban area off the highway will soon be like historical downtown philly and boston as the ad suggests?
“Likewise, attached garages are rear-loading”
I think they could say that of the entire stupid idea.
ROFL!!!!!
2 cars like a Honda civic,
I had an uncle who bought a house with the garage sticking out in the front..of course then bought a SUV without measuring the height……needless to say he was between a rock and hard place, since the HOA would not allow him to just put Barn door type doors, and they didn’t allow parking on the street, and his big huge extended Super Duper SUV stuck out on the sidewalk…oops plenty of fines here.
So he had to park about 4 blocks away in designated visitors lot…i guess you can call him a Moron….
I thought Vernon Hills and Libertyville had zoning or ordinances so new construction could not have garages in front, so no Garage-Mahals.
I see lots in San Jose and Campbell CA, that have been demoed of previous buildings and scraped for townhome construction up to the point of ground plumbing have no more activity and fencing put up around the lots. Hmmmmm.
Here in 94089 Pulte and Swenson have just about finished their infill conversion of several office parks to ugly-ass townhomes — seriously, I’d rather live in Pelican Bay than these things. Still seeing some FBs moving in, but they’re all uniformly immigrants.
I have a HELOC with Countrywide with a zero balance. As of June 1, it will be cancelled.
Should I draw on it and then call them in July and offer them $.50 cents on the dollar?
No please don’t do that, that would be completely unethical.
Offer them $.40 cents on the dollar instead !
Crispy, max it out and buy a house!
maybe call the local i/e rag to do a poor me article on your struggle to repay the heloc and countrywides unwillingness to work with you
Do they have to give you that much notice on the cancellation? Seems like an invitation to get the most desperate to borrow the max amount…almost like a local stimulus package. Unintended consequences?
Very funny! I also have a HELOC with Countrywide with a zero balance. But they’ve been trying to lure me into borrowing more money by calling me to decrease my interest rate….
I have a HELOC with Countrywide with a zero balance. As of June 1, it will be cancelled.
Should I draw on it and then call them in July and offer them $.50 cents on the dollar?
–
I didn’t realize that they were that stupid. Cancellation should have read as of yesterday.
Jas
So what’s the deal with that? Has your house value dropped so much that they reckon it’s worth less than you owe on your first mortgage? Or is this just an automated thing on their part to get rid of a mass of potential HELOC debt?
A friend of mine opened a HELOC with them at a really high rate when he refinanced his first mortgage. He said that the high rate was because they paid for the fees and taxes up front and perhaps hoped to get it back from him in interest (no luck there!). Lucky for him, he’s never needed it. Maybe it would be best if they canceled it for him just to remove the temptation!
Syracuse realtors seem to be in the press and online w/the claim it’s different here but January’s NYSAR numbers prove the darkness is encircling them and closing in: (1st 2 columns are YOY)
Onandaga County: Sales -8.6/ Price +3.8/ Price From 01/06 +14.5
Madison County: Sales -29.4/ Price -24.6/ From Peak -51.0
Oneida County: Sales -11.2/ Price +1/ From Peak -33.6
Cayuga County: Sales -13.9/ Price -14.4/ From Peak -27.9
http://nysar.com/consumers/stats.asp
do syracuse realtors provide door to door zamboni service ?
LOL- a reference to the market skating on thin ice?
A free Puck in every garage.
Carrie, I haven’t encountered high strength koolade like the stuff served in upstate NY anywhere in the country. Some of the tripe out of the mouth of upstaters is so silly, I pity them. “What if there is another 9/11…” “Global warming will make prices go up here”. They go silent when I tell them that historically, upstate has always had an influx of metro fools and there was a brief but significant uptick in the 2-3 years following 9/11. Typically, they have no response.
This is a little bit more of a continuation of the “smart people who don’t act so smart” thread from yesterday.
There is a couple that works in my office - classic boomers with three kids all nearly adults. They have the house they live in and two “investment” condos - one that one child is living in during grad school and one purchased even more recently and rented out at a negative cash flow.
I spoke to one member of this couple after the stock market closed one of the days with a severe downturn. Said something about things about the market being a mess that day. She responded that the market better calm down within 3 years because that was when she wanted to retire and she wanted to sell the condos before then. I said that she could sell them now if the price were right. Response? “I’m not going to give them away.” The implication of all this is tht she thought that a stable market (one where the market price was obvious) was one that would be at least near what she paid for them.
How does anyone come to this conclusion?
The market goes down, down, down, and then when it stabalizes it magically goes back to what it was before it started going down? How? Is this just a natural (but financially damaging) reluctance to “lock in” the losses? A kind of complete lack of understanding of the concept of sunk costs? I just don’t get it. When even the experts who were saying just last October or so that overall house prices couldn’t go down in the US are talking about no turn around until 2009 or later, how can people still believe this?
What is the problem?
It’s hard for ppl that think they are bright to admit they were foolish and duped.
Easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle.
Polly, remind that stupid _____ that you work with that the NASDAQ was at 5,000 in the year 2000. It closed yesterday at 2212. See if her feeble pea-brain can comprehend that fact. I would bet against it.
nycboy the ndaq will be over 5k by the time they are ready to retire. right? oh hold on i have to go feed my unicorn
If I ever get rich, the first thing I’m gonna do is build a big needle a camel can easily pass through.
–
“It’s hard for ppl that think they are bright to admit they were foolish and duped.”
Our system (propaganda machine) works hard at that and it has succeeded.
Jas
“How does anyone come to this conclusion?”
One of my brothers holds this opinion…I say holds because he refuses to examine the logic of his position at all. Suggested he sell his Wamu stock at 37, but nope, “the market will come back”. One brother did listen,but not this dunderhead. Last I heard, he’s waiting for it to be a buyout candidate. Whatever. Owns 3 houses, gave one to my nephew, rents the other. I doubt if it covers his expenses. It’s his investment. I guess he just likes the sound of the word “investment” and telling folks he owns 3 houses. Guy is smart, speaks three languages, but when it comes to money, is as dumb as rock.-He believes what he wants to believe, and until reality actually attacks him, nothing impacts his brain. After the fact, he can gin up some happy rationalization as to why reality did not follow his plan–this time. But he’s figured out how to outsmart reality next time.
What can I say–family is a trip.
Highly educated and intelligent does not always lend to strong financial acumen. I recently met a Microsoft project manager (educated at UCSB and pulling down at least $175k) who purchased a 1500 square foot fixer in North Seattle for $630k in 10/06. He’s got another hundred grand plus into the thing and it’s a one bath with a tiny kitchen. He’ll have close to $800k into it when finished. These are homes in a decent area, but on postage stamp lots (3000 square feet anyone?). One can rent the equivalent for $1600 per month. I asked him why he purchased, and he said they were “tired of throwing money away on rent”. So $4300 PITI per month is a better deal? Unbelievable. And, these types are still
…still buying.
Not sure what happened there.
“The implication of all this is tht she thought that a stable market (one where the market price was obvious) was one that would be at least near what she paid for them.”
————
That concept is a mental construct called “anchoring.” It is the idea that the value revolves around what you paid, and it implies the tendency to ignore market realities.
The price paid has no relation to current or future value.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
Currently, price is what you pay. Screwed is what you get.
I guess that anchoring is even stronger in real estate than it is in stocks. The transactions costs probably influence it.
And realize that many boomer types have only had financial awareness during the unprecedented 17 year bull run from 1982. Most people under 45 don’t have a solid economic feel for the crappy 70’s. Hence, all these people have known is up with little pull-backs. They are the reason that the little print on fund prospectuses say past performance does not indicate future performance.
Hence, all these people have known is up with little pull-backs.
True only if they slept through the 80% decline in the Nasdaq in the early 2000’s. Surely they’ve also heard of Japan?
Wheatie,
Hate to tell you, but people under 45 are pretty much all Gen X, not boomers. This couple is solidly in their 50’s. Oldest child is pushing 30.
baby boomers with “investent condos” is the new
so this guy walks into a bar….
they should have a great retirement with a strategy like theirs
These morons don’t understand that risk should decrease with age. In their defense there weren’t many people that saw any risk in real estate until about 2007. We on the HBB have to realize that we are in a very minute minority. We are like black hockey players in the 1970s.
Now that’s funny boy.
Actually, they will probably be fine. She is on the old style federal pension - 2% per year of service times your highest salary with a good COLA, no social social security. The new style (I’m on this one and so is her husband) is 1% per year of service with a “COLA-lite” but you also pay into social security and get a 401K with up to 5% matching. She also says that if the economy is a total wreck in 3 years she won’t retire, but will keep working to be able to help her kids. Not a bad idea since the oldest just started law school and wants to “do real estate” when he gets out.
I think the federal retirement system is not dependent on there actually being enough money in the pool. I’m not sure it is a “full faith and credit” guarantee, but I’m sure you can imagine the mess if the entire federal work force thought their pensions were at risk. Not all of us are essential, but quite a few are.
They wouldn’t have enough money to take a lot of vacations, but they could probably live on just her pension alone.
Sorry, I know it irks to think that people who made bad decisions just following the crowd could get out of this mess, less happy than they might be, but just fine in the end.
I’m retired under the new system. Neither system is a “full faith and credit” obligation; they’re just pay-as-you-go statutory plans, like Social Security and military pensions. I have no idea; however, if a change in the law that reduces benefits is a “taking” under the 5th Amendment. What’s in our favor is that the members of Congress, and their staffs, are in the new plan.
Tux,
Is there any difference if the retiree was in a postion covered by a union? My position is, but I don’t even know how much of the federal workforce is covered by a union agreement…
Like pay, pension benefits are not the subject of collective bargaining agreements for employees whose compensation is governed by Title 5, USC.
Govt. employees’ pensions are going to fall/fail just like private pensions.
Like I said on an earlier thread, the “full faith and credit” of the USGovt. will be trashed in the end. Bankruptcies starting with individuals will spiral out of control all the way up to the USgovt.
This will be the final result of this mess. Like individuals walking away from their up-side down mortgages, city, state and eventually the USgovt will declare bankruptcy.
This appears to be the “only real solution to America’s problem”.
Ah, full faith and credit of the U.S. gubment. And I see that my two St. Gaudens MS-65 coins are now valued at $1910 apiece from the coin shop that sold them to me at $1225 apiece a couple of years ago (note: rare coins are a tiny fraction of my investment in precious metals).
Bill:
I admire your dedication to your own financial stability, and your apparent successes. However, after reading this blog for more than 2 years, your posts have become quite predictable and pedestrian. This is not meant as an insult, but perhaps you can challenge yourself to reflect more on real estate or even the economy, rather than your own personal wealth and well-being.
lmao. bullseye.
hahaha…
Bill -
Congrats on the St. Gaudens.
Please continue PM portfolio comments.
Regarding real estate the economy -> it’s a Triffin dilemma followed by a Minsky moment. I won’t need the lifespan of a Tolkein elf to witness an American Weimar.
thanks Halifax. Will do. I’ll put it this way to the others above… will do!
Ge, where do you think we are now at this stage of the game.
I say game, because if your assets/income is by far greater than your expenses, then its just a game. You are pushing numbers around on ROI, speculation, and whatever.
The Rich have the luxury that most Americans do not have.
Lol, wait a few years and go back and read your comments on the old style federal pension. There isn’t an ounce of difference in this woman’s belief system around her home than other’s belief systems that pensions as promised will actually exist or be deliverable…
RE: What is the problem?
The NAR taking their marketing ques from the pagebook of Joseph Gobbel’s.
Tell the people lies for long enough and eventually they will believe them to be the truth.
So as we know…”Real estate always goes up”.
I am afraid you are too late, Today’s American marketing geniuses have gone leaps and bounds over any thing the J. Goebbels ever accomplished.
“What is the problem? “
No problem at all, people like this are not problem makers they are opportunity providers. They mess up by buying high and then selling low. Many of us freaks who hang out on this blog do quite well by being on the other side of these people’s transactions; hence they become our opportunity providers.
I think I’ll start a business selling tiny violins. After all the Kleenex, there will be great need to play the tiny violins.
I dont understand the sympathy. Dont the ppl in the article realize that the buyers pursuit of the “american dream” at any cost robbed others of theirs and destroyed our economy. I would have to hold myself back not to curse at them and throw them out of my office.
People need to start worrying less about their dreams and recognizing their responsibilities. If you are single or can easily afford the home great, but if you have a family and you bought a home you could barely afford in 2004 - 2007 knowing that prices just doubled or tripled if not more, and that historically houses appreciate inflation plus 1%, you do not deserve sympathy, you deserve to be despised. To put your family at such risk is a horribly selfish act because you had a gd dream, american or otherwise.
You are right. I keep hearing all of these “activists” and politicians spewing nonsense about everybody’s rights. I would love to hear them start spewing about everybody’s responsibilities that go with those rights.
It’s the “I have a dream” crowd, knowwhutImsayin’?
Tim, I like this mindset. Many of these FBs like to ignore the fact that they have contributed mightily to today’s screwed up economy. Not only did they dig their own ditch but they drove their fellow Americans - people they don’t even know - off the road, too.
Thanks all you FBs out there for screwing up the credit markets and making it tough for even the most solvent and credit worthy to get loans these days. You didn’t HAVE to lie on your applications or purchase several properties beyond your reach. No one pointed a gun at your head and forced you to buy anything.
Take some damn responsibility for your greed and stupidity. Feel some damn shame for making life difficult for others.
There is a house I like in ATL and have been watching. It went on the market for $790k about a year ago. Probably would have sold for about that 6 months earlier. 4 months it was reduced to $750k. 2 months ago it was reduced to $699k. Today just got reduced to $650k. I will continue to watch it. I would consider it at $500k.
79ok in atlanta? they moved graceland to atl? who knew
I have been to many cities and still think that Buckhead, Morningside/VA HI, and Druid Hills in Atlanta have the nicest neighborhoods of pretty much any city i’ve seen and it has (or at least had) a booming financial industry. Its the land of extremes. True it has lots of poverty and urban issues, but it is not a dead city and has tons of super wealthy. There are many vibrant and growing areas and its still relativley cheap. That same house would be 2 million or more in NW DC or Bethesda or Chevy Chase, and I prefer ATL. We are talking over 3.5k square feet on a great lot designed by an architect in a neighborhood of a mix of historical and new custom homes. Im not saying its cheap by any means, but my other alternative is DC. After seeing the prices there its not a consideration unless I see a 50% or more correction.
Just wait a bit, Tim. The really good stuff has barely started to correct yet. We’ll get there eventually. Of course, if you really prefer Atlanta, that is different.
Good to hear from you polly. Im not jumping in just yet. Just finally starting to see hope. Im torn because my family is in DC, but I would receive the same salary in DC and housing is at least 50% cheaper in Atlanta and I enjoy the city more (mainly because its easy to get around and not much traffic, but only if you live inside the city of course, outside traffic is horrible - people think traffic hear is horrible but in morningside you can get anywhere in less than 15 minutes on most days). I will watch for a least 18 months before I decide. Also, I will need that time to feel comfortable with my job situation. I am a securitization attorney and very risk adverse (I know it sounds contradictory). I am not seeing any new deals, but am handling credit and liquidity emergencies. Until this settles, I wouldnt commit myself to a house even though I would prefer to have my own place as I love loud music, a private backyard, and studio.
Can’t say I was ever exclusively a securitization attorney, but I was a tax lawyer at a big NYC firm and “been there, done that, got the…” well it was a hat, not a t-shirt. I actually liked securitization transactions. They weren’t that hard from a tax perspective, and it was kind of cool seeing how car companies got rid of the incentive interest rates - I was mostly working on car and credit card loans with a little industrial equiment mixed in.
From a tax perspective, securitizations are just another transaction, but I imagine they are more specialized from the corporate end of things, especially if confirming the quality of the underlying loans becomes popular. Talk about due diligence…
It never even occurred to me to think about buying until I was pretty sure I had a job I liked and was going to be able to keep, plus all that “money in the bank” stuff that has become so unpopular recently. Hope find your job stability in an area you like.
I love North Atlanta and many of its suburban areas. The Atlanta metro must be the most gorgeous area I have ever lived in. (The humidity is awful though not as bad as Houston, Memphis or New Orleans, but bad all the same.) And downtown Atlanta (Peachtree Center and 5 Points) is ugly (to me). When I lived there none of my neighbors or other locals went downtown unless there were Falcon games or music concerts. It isn’t a place I would want to be in after sundown. Why would anyone want to go there? If you want nightlife and ambience, go to Midtown, Virginia-Highlands, Buckhead and parts of Brookhaven. Leave downtown for the conventioneers.
There are areas there where one couldn’t get a house for under $750K in 1995. Sweetbottom Plantation on the Chattahoochee might be one of the loveliest subdivisions in the SE. The housing designs, the value for the dollar and overall aesthetics beat anything I have seen here, be it Bethesda, Potomac or wherever. No comparison. If people want to see quality tasteful estates, then go to Atlanta. If you want to see quality tasteful middle class homes that middle class families can afford, give it a go.
People in general have a higher quality of life there. They look healthier, dress better, laugh more, are educated, and simply seem to enjoy living much more than here. DC does have museums, more lawyers (Tim) and PhDs, but I consult some of those PhDs and to be honest they can stay here. Atlanta needs more museums and probably more diversity in its politics. Hopefully that will come. DC has more history…Atlanta’s was burned down awhile back.
And Atlanta doesn’t have is a lot of opportunities for people who do what I do while DC begs and pays a premium for the likes of me.
So I am here, renting and will continue to rent. Even if prices come down to where I could buy and not be house-poor I wouldn’t. I don’t like the houses or their quality of construction. And the zoning seems a bit odd to me. You see an overpriced street of townhouses and one block over you have abject poverty, crack deals going down and street prostitution. In the suburbs you can see rundown townhouses that are falling apart and across the street there are vinyl McMansions packed in like Monopoly houses on Baltic Avenue. Monopoly houses look better.
If only I could move my house there up here. I rent it to my daughter and her boyfriend so when I visit I get to stay there. It reminds me of what this area is sorely lacking. And it is too bad.
My local market observation is that it’s a “DEAD MARKET “.I think everyone is waiting to see what benefits the gov. is going to be handing out .
South of Boston, MA:
It is a “Dead Market” here. Most buyers are simply waiting to see how low the prices will fall. Most sellers are holding their breath as well as their wishing prices.
I lived in Hingham for two years and loved it. Was unfair to make my husband commute to the city (14 stops on the Red Line) so we moved. Are prices dropping there?
“”Every counselor has a box of kleenex on their desks,” Bridget Russell of Neighborhood Housing Service said.”
That should be replaced with a f—ing baseball bat. It would do a lot more good.
“Mary Henderson of West Haven said. ‘The mortgage started at 139 and I end up now paying $228,000 and I don’t understand how we got to this point.’”
Gosh, someone crept in in the middle of the night and magically increased her mortgage by 89k! Perhaps a burglar alarm system would help people like this.
Gosh- try READING the linked article. If you get beyond a cut ‘n paste paragraph and stopped jumping to conclusions like a dog chasing a rabbit, you might get an inkling what happened to that particular family.
“A nearly $100,000 increase in what she owed in just six years. Her sub-prime mortgage had an adjustable rate that sky-rocketed just as her family’s financial picture changed dramatically.
After 30 years at Pratt Whitney, Henderson got SICKand had to go out on DISABILITY. She, her husband, son and two grandkids were suddenly, upside down in their house.”
See the words in caps to get a clue what happened.
She became ill - that means medical bill and copays.
She became so ill, she couldn’t work - that means a loss of income AND medical bill and copays.
She became so ill that she qualified for disability - that process takes 2-3 years with basically no income and lots of medical bills and copays and either (1) covering her share of the premiums of an employer plan if they will let her stay on it or (b) doing without any coverage.
She now gets disability - and Medicare doesn’t kick in until 2 years AFTER the date she was determined to have become disabled. In the meantime, she has to pay the COBRA cost for employer coverage (if she hasn’t already exhausted it and the employer offerred it) or get coverage somewhere else (good luck if she is ill enough to be disabled) or pay all the medical bills out of pocket.
Beginning to see how someone who became so ill that they are permanently disabled might just have ended up in a refinancing situation with a nasty loan or used up a HELOC that reset? With her out ill, it would have slashed income and made it tough to get a decent rate or laon to try to pay all those medical bills.
Medical providers have thsi nasty habit of saying ‘there there don’t worry, it will work with the bills” and then turning around and ruining the person’s credit rating and suing them for bill.
Fastest route to poverty and financial destruction is to become ill and disabled. 70% of those who are permanently disabled have an income BELOW Federal Poverty Level - and all the while they are being hounded by collectors for medical bills.
This is the reason health care is a privelege, not a right.
Doesn’t matter how much money you have, death wins. People need to stop equating health care with money. No reasons with all the technology/learning investment in health care we can’t get prices to go down - just nobody seems to consider that possibility.
I came upon a web site called oodle.com - has a foreclosures site you can check your area (prob. not very accurate) - it’s interesting to see what’s out there. Over 225 in Grand Junction, Colorado (pop. 100,000), which is smack in the middle of the oilpatch. Last week, an economist gave a speech there saying they were immune to the meltdown because of the oilpatch. I don’t know what a normal rate there is, but a lot of them have names that sound like newer subdivisions.
Interesting website……..more and more sites are picking up the biz of tracking forclosures.
http://www.realtytrac.com/
Appears to be pretty acurate but you have to join to get some details.
Basic data is there.Seems to lag sometimes when auctions go to bank owned.You can really track any area by zip,follow the “preforclosures” to auctions to bank owned.The #’s in areas I am tracking are growing by the week.I see no end in sight.
Anyone who doesnt believe prices will spiral further down should look at these figures in the market area they are considering.
I looked at the site and it’s unbelievable. I viewed Carmel Valley 92130 zip code (also included 92014 Del Mar) and found over 1,000 properties listed. Only 80 were resale homes. If this is correct, all areas including Carmel Valley and Del Mar are going to get hit hard.
Realty Trac is run by the one realty company in the area that is really taking a hard line on prices— lower than what the seller wants. Because of this, they’re the company that actually has a decent sell rate for property.
IOW, they looked at their own numbers.
the wife and i just got back from running a few errands
lots of new for sale signs sprouting up
after the past week of news i can do nothing but
stay in my place and keep saving and spreading out some risk
the market here in nyc is finally starting to feel the pinch imo
everyone i talk to has apparently gotten the memo the next 6
months should be interesting
rainy disgusting day in nyc and many open houses should be packed
with eager buyers… yes i am sure
i was watching faux news this morning and a few segments were
dealing with a layoff, cutting costs, and saving advice
saving it is the new black
the msm can no longer avoid the obvious we are in a recession
and there is no magic pill (zirp) that is going to help anytime soon
It is a disgusting day. I’m about ready for the first drink of the day. Opportunities abound. I hope I can resist temptation to put any of my dry powder in the market before March 19th.
It amazes me that people in your area (Queens) just can’t see this thing at this point. The fearful attitude here in Manhattan seems to be spreading. Just think what it will be like if the Dow hits 10,000. I think we will then see the “holy sh*t” moment take place.
starting early huh? don’t forget my shirley temple!!!!!
il drop you a line say hi to the mrs.
“It is a disgusting day.”
I like your honesty.
How ’bout that peter schiff segment on bulls and bears?
Ben Jones would have loved that one, but he doesn’t do TV. Bless his heart.
Trapper John made a fool out of himself at that point.
NYCityBoy,
I saw the exchange between Schiff and Wayne Rogers (Trapper). Schiff was saying people are walking away from their homes, Trapper was saying speculators were the only ones doing the walking, Schiff said more than speculators were walking, and then Trapper told him to shut up. Lost my respect for Trapper.
Didn’t it make you wonder how much real estate Wayne Trapper John has? Is he afraid that some of his people will walk?
He sure did say shut up. He’s a character and schiff didn’t even blink.
“Even hot dogs are under scrutiny. Food and nutrition director Rick Kurtz told the board of plans to switch from hot dogs to turkey franks to save $25,000 through the rest of the year.”
And going from High Fat Hot Dogs to lower fat Hot dogs is a terrible hardship ? Poor, Poor, tykes !
If people start turning cheap cuts of turkey into hot dogs, where will the Ren Faires get all their turkey legs? We are talking about a cultural crisis here, people.
In the Atlantic City, New Jersey area, sale signs are sprouting to greet the “Spring Selling Season.” Delusional sellers still think it’s 2004-05. Interestingly, Pinnacle Casino indefinitely delayed start of construction on $2 billion casino until credit markets become stabilized. Delusional sellers seem to think overstrapped out-of-towners looking for a place at the shore will find terms, downpayments, etc. that casino developers cannot. Of course, as all our local real estate professionals tell us, “It’s different at the shore!”
Things have really slowed down here. Last night in on one Bozeman’s gentrified overpriced downtown bars, I ran into one of the town’s major real estate lawyers. He basically out business, no more subdivisions are being platted. He doesn’t know what to do, as he doesn’t do litigation, only contracts and the approval process.
There are like 3000 lots for sale in the county, very little is moving.
Remind your attorney friend to adapt or die.
An attorney relative started his career as a county prosecutor, switched over to being a criminal defense attorney, and then into labor relations with a big company, and finally into tax law before retiring.
My engineering career had even more twists.
This guy and his father got to were they are at by being politically connected. It would not be unusual to go into his office and run into Senator Max Baucus and some big shot developer arranging some deal.
The problem he has got is the system that he knows is breaking down, and there nothing as lucrative to replace it.
I guess this guy is going to have to say good bye to nepotism and the old boy network and say hello to the Darwinian world the rest of us live in. Darwinian with a good solid dash of “sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart” that is.
Well, now he’ll have to scramble like the rest of us, and he’ll have it worse because he has no survival skills. He’ll join the millions of unemployed who refuse to take jobs below their station in life.
A perfect illustration of what’s unfolding in all of the peripheral boomtowns; a massive loss of employment due to the housing meltdown. Coupled with the current credit environment, it’d be hard to imagine a better scenario for rapid and massive price drops.
Exactly what is happening in the inland nortwest! All of the job growth of the last 4 years was construction real estate.
Yet he is at an overpriced bar
I assume you saved and can afford it.
He needs to save during the good times, that’s what he need(ed) to do.
I mentioned here in the past that small, delusional builders continue to put up spec houses in our community. I think that has finally stopped. I have now noticed three nearby lots where the foundation site was staked and strung, but nothing else done. One of those lots has been that way for at least two months.
A few resales are now selling, but (like dandelions) as soon as you get rid of one, another one pops up nearby. Inventory remains high, but it has stopped increasing.
Was in Hawaii on the big island for my first ever visit this week. Noticed that the nature of its long sloping terrain (on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa) allows a great amount of ocean view homes. Picked up a glossy real estate brochure and looked at the listings. It appears you can get ocean views for under $450,000, advertised in the brochures. The real price is probably under $350,000, on the average, by good negotiating. I would expect $250,000 ocean views to be the average there in a couple of years and dropping further!
When world peak oil no longer is a debate but is the reality (within the next 5 years), the tourist economy will collapse. Hawaii will be forced to reverse its socialism and enact tax cuts to spur its economy. The same thing will have to happen in the U.S.
BTW: I saw only one Ron Paul for President sign on my around-the-island drive. But it felt good knowing there is a non-socialist living there.
I’ve never been to Hawaii, and am only mildly interested in visiting. I’d never want to own a home there as the islands are too small for my tastes. Living in my own 37′ cutter down on the marina is a another story…
Blathering Bear, you are a Vermont resident, right?
Haha, I see I ruffled your feathers. Vermont? Not even close. WA state.
driving around Hawaii and thinking about US “socialism”. Dude, you are one tweeked mofo.
No, it’s just the opposite. Locals in Hawaii, driving around while allowing socialism to get a foothold in a place like that is what is mofo!
The locals let a good thing get destroyed.
Hurry on this one: TEMPORARY PRICE REDUCTION!!
http://seattle.craigslist.org/see/rfs/592102656.html
Maybe it’s someone who works at Big-5 Sporting Goods, where they have a sale but give you the after-sale price too.
“temporary . . .LOL. so if it doesn’t sell soon at $575 they’re going to raise it back to $6? Good luck with that.
Silicon Valley has turned, finally. Condos are leading the charge down, but all must follow eventually. How far down is debatable, but down is good.
I’m actually looking at Fresno now. There’s about 12 sq miles of it that is rather uniformly “nice” (basically the closer to the river you get the more exclusive the neighborhood). What was ~$350 in 2002 peaked at $650 in 2006 and is now listing for $500-550. 440K would be my entry point here, since the 2002 pricing didn’t have the ZIRP factor built-in yet.
Wait until you see pre-2001 prices. In Fresno, you just might see prices fall below 1996 levels.
We are heading into a major recession/depression, IMHO. Funky things happen to asset prices in these circumstances.
BTW, we have family property in Fresno County and my dad lived in Bakersfield for a few years — bought a house in BF in 1996. Prices started going up rather rapidly in 1997/1998. There was a lot of building — mostly McMansions.
We will see pre-2001 prices (at least) before this bubble is fully deflated.
Ooh, I love that post-modern Garage Focal Point look.
Wanted to look at a house, today. It was just listed on Monday, no pictures until Friday. Tried to set up a showing, but all showings had to be approved by the listing agent. And where is the agent? Out of the country and unavailable.
Finally are able to get in and see the house. The showing agent says “it’s priced very well, as it’s listed just above it assessed value.” Duhhh…they’ve just bought it a year ago so it’s assessed value is the last sales price.
Oh…there’s been alot of interest in this house, better move fast….
I’m sure there will be lots of interest…..until potential buyers see the large, bay window that needs to be replaced and the mold on the ceiling.
Also, the showing agent says “in my five years as a real esate agent, I have never seen buyers get such good deals as they are now.” Yup….five years.
My wife pointed out the last five years have been an anomally.
I’m a potential first time buyer holding out until at least later this year to buy a nice suburban 4 bedroom home. (I’m timing it based on living arrangements, not trying to time the market, and staying well within what I can afford.) The part of the home buying process that turns my stomach is the prospect of dealing with mental defects (I guess some people call them realtors?)
I work in a profession where I am required to have literally 0 tolerance for bull S. I’m a little concerned that I’ll become locally famous among mental defects for being impossible to deal with, yet I currently lack the confidence and savvy to buy real estate on my own.
If someone said that to me, “in my five years as a real estate agent, I have never seen buyers get such good deals as they are now” I would very likely say to that person’s face that they are objectively incompetent to sell me a paper clip. Is type of attitude likely to have serious negative repercussions for me when trying to buy in a town with a population around 65,000?
In other words, is it going to be a problem if I become well known for speaking honestly to mental defects in the real estate business?
Yes. Realtors talk to each other. If you insult one or two, none of them in town will do business with you except for the REALLY bad ones who don’t even try to protect their clients’ interests.
Look at it this way: if you tell them they’re incompetent, what good will that do?
If you think they’re incompetent, why keep working with them?
It makes sense that you, as a first-time buyer, would want guidance from someone more experienced with the process, who can help you avoid procedural pitfalls. Listen to the realtor about that. You don’t need them to know the history of the housing market: you can keep track of the long-term perspective yourself.
I just saw my first burned-out McMansion shell today in a new subdivision that looks fairly deserted. A lot of signs have sprung up in the past week or two as well. I also found a zip code that had 250 active listings for January and 8 sales!
Since the Missoula Organization of Realtors is no longer posting data on its Market Trends page, I thought I would put the January data here, for the record. Note lowest sales volume in 4 years. Also note that there was just ONE sale in the outlying areas.
“The following is a summary of market activity for the period indicated as recorded by the Missoula Organization of REALTORS® Regional Multiple Listing Service. Figures may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Missoula Urban Area–includes greater Missoula area and Lolo Residential
Month of January Year to Date
Year # Sales Median Price # Sales Median Price
2008 58 $208,200 58 $208,200
2007 70 $189,700 70 $189,700
2006 79 $192,000 79 $192,000
2005 68 $179,000 68 $179,000
Missoula and Surrounding Area–includes greater Missoula area, Lolo, Blackfoot Valley, Seeley Lake, Condon, Swan Valley, Evaro Residential, Frenchtown Valley, Huson, Nine Mile, Alberton, and Petty Creek
Month of January Year to Date
Year # Sales Median Price # Sales Median Price
2008 59 $208,200 59 $208,200
2007 74 $189,700 74 $189,700
2006 82 $191,750 82 $191,750
2005 70 $179,000 70 $179,000
Here’s the verbage:
“From about the mid-80s to the mid-90s, the Missoula real estate market reflected some consistent patterns of activity. Following the activity of the spring and early summer, in July the market slowed some and then geared up again in late summer and early fall before the winter/holiday slowdown with the cycle repeating again starting about March. As the unprecedented 15-year expansion of the real estate market really took hold in the mid-90s these patterns disappeared and the market stayed steady–and active–year round. The current market trends reflect a slowing in the local market, with the number of new listings, properties under contract, and properties sold all down from last month. In another time, this might have been viewed as just the normal pattern. In light of the recent market anomaly, it’s probably too soon to be comfortable with that conclusion. Nevertheless, continued low interest rates and a somewhat lower median price should encourage consumers considering homeownership to research the local market and specific neighborhoods. Numbers can only tell one part of the story.”
My guess is that the line about it being “too soon to tell” if this is just a return to “the normal pattern” pissed off the realtor rank and file so the MOR decided to stop posting any info. There is a new MOR head as of January, and she has more blunt about the state of the market than her predecessor.
So now, to make everyone feel better, we have the lovely statement that “MOR is in the process of reviewing the market trends information to determine the best way to reflect the Missoula market on a consistent and ongoing basis. If you have suggestions about the type of information that would be most helpful to you, please feel free to contact us at comments@MissoulaRealEstate.com.”
In the downturn of the 1980’s it was Missoula that took the dive first and was hit hardest early on. Bozeman’s downturn came latter. Billings was the last city to be effected, not until late in 1982.
In this cycle I willing to take a bet the the real and very visible problems are go start in Bozeman, perhaps with a bank failure.
I feel that way because the attitude in Bozeman is so arrogant. Missoula was that way in the 1970’s.
A bank failure would certainly be interesting, especially after all of the crap about how lier loans and subprime came late to MT and never really took hold. As of last year, Wells Fargo was the #2 mortgage lender in Missoula after Countrywide, and a Wells loan officer told me almost everything they wrote was subprime.
The bank that I don’t trust is Bank of Bozeman. It is to much like Empire Savings and Loan, which was the first S&l to collapse in Texas in the 1980’s.
Bank of Bozeman was stated by a major builder in Bozeman by the name of Cowdrey. The bank was started because he had been turned down by other banks for projects that did not pencil out. The board of directors is mostly local contractors and land developers.
Empire Saving and Loan collapsed becase of the I-30 condo scandle in Dallas Texas. In Bozeman we are getting Cowdrey Towers condo project. Who knows, it might turn into Baxter Lane condo scandle.
Sounds promising! Nothing like a bunch of nitwits running a bank.
Of course, MT’s already been affected by bank failures. American Home Mortgage and New Century were among the top lenders here in 2005, and they’ve already gone bust. http://www.allmortgagedetail.com/mortgages/missoula_mt_montana.asp?type=sp&yr=2005
That’s why it pisses me off that MT is a non-disclosure state. Stuff is no doubt hitting the fan, but how are we to know?
Also, most of the the major sub-prime lenders were operating in Gallitan County, including Wells Fargo (big in Bozeman) and Countrywide.
This in spite of what our local BS newspaper wants it’s readers to believe. They just found two mortgage brokers to say there were very few sub-prime loans in Gallitan County. Since there were two sources for this story, it must be true.
All it would have taken was a trip to the Clerk and Recorders Office to find out how full of it the brokers were. But that was not the action line of the story.
There is a lot of information at each counties Clerk and Recorders Office. All mortgages are on file there, the whole document. You might not know the selling price of a property, but you can find out the amount of the mortgage.
Other information there is Notices of Trusties Sales (foreclosures) and liens.
I never had to work in Missoula County I don’t know what their system is like, but in Gallitan County it is on computer back to 1990.
Some of information I get is from people I have known for year, and from hanging places like the Rocking R were a lot of local business people hang out after work.
Could you really find that out at the Clerk & Recorders Office — even with non-disclosure on sales info, you could get loan info?
Overbuilding?
Well in one area I am tracking you can purchase an older home at the inflated price of $152,900.The sellers there are in that area of denial still.
Notice the nice lawn.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=86442&typ=1&sid=a2ef8012e9354f09a3e9ee907f18283c&pg=7&lid=1096710194&lsn=63&srcnt=416#Detail
You can also buy a concrete slab for about the same price.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=86442&typ=1&sid=a2ef8012e9354f09a3e9ee907f18283c&pg=8&lid=1092946809&lsn=74&srcnt=416#Detail
or pick your own colors !!
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=86442&typ=1&sid=a2ef8012e9354f09a3e9ee907f18283c&pg=13&lid=1092946827&lsn=125&srcnt=416#Detail
Want to rent? How about two identical NEW houses with rents different by $400?
http://www.azsunriver.com/Bullhead_City/Arizona/Homes/Bullhead_City/Mira_Monte/Agent/Listing_1534017.html
Yea ,there has been a little bit of over building and speculation.Ill sit it out for a while as things continue to crash………
I forgot all the condos there too…..
About 18 of these on the listings.Notice they must have runn out of asphalt in the parking area.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=86442&typ=2&sid=09ef9f9bad934f799afdf89de8dba91d&lid=1095859817&lsn=8&srcnt=80#Detail
You can get the high end models too…..
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=86442&typ=2&sid=09ef9f9bad934f799afdf89de8dba91d&pg=8&lid=1088035469&lsn=80&srcnt=80#Detail
No ….No one overbuilt in a rea with no jobs…….
oops……….here is the other rental at $400 less……..
http://www.azsunriver.com/Bullhead_City/Arizona/Homes/Bullhead_City/Mira_Monte/Agent/Listing_1535438.html
Carlsbad, CA
A developer’s notice of “Coming soon: Luxury townhomes” that has been up for more than a year was recently tagged (probably by FBs) with “Stop the overbuilding”…I will drive by and get a picture for the HBB gallery later today.
I also heard the “City” of Hemet, inland empire of CA has a emergency meeting to discuss a possibility of a immediate moratorium on extension of tentative tract maps. That is for subdividing major acres into tract homes…must be some major backlash.
I saw a sign that said: Home in foreclosure 4 sale. I will take a pic too. But hey Ben hasn’t updated the photo site for awhile.
WIll ask builder friends etc in Hemet for particulars and post later.
“I also heard the “City” of Hemet, inland empire of CA has a emergency meeting to discuss a possibility of a immediate moratorium on extension of tentative tract maps. That is for subdividing major acres into tract homes…”
Stumptown inventory up 40% YOY from 3/2008. Woot!
Also, homebuilders are undercutting the market big time, can’t wait to see this summer. There will be an enormous between resale and new…just like we’ve predicted all along.
*enormous gap
This is a bit OT, and may be old news to, say, our Cali friends, but my latest observation is that diesel is at 4 bucks a gallon here now. How independent truckers can survive with that I have no idea.
They just pass it on to the customers…
The independent truckers have been bellyaching about fuel costs since 1973. SSDD[ecade].
I went to an open house in Coral Springs FL yesterday and the realtor actually said “real estate always goes up”. Poor old guy, he was obviously very surprised that anyone even showed up for the open house. He probably hasn’t even had the chance to give anyone a sales pitch in a while, so he was really reaching when he was trying to get me to stay a little longer. And his brain was probably addled from living off of rice and beans for too long.
Anyone have any comments on Boulder CO?
I’ve never been to Boulder but my wife has a lucrative job offer there. My impression is that it’s similar to the trendy expensive boutique college town cities elsewhere like Berkeley, Evanston, Palo Alto, etc.
Is Boulder bubbling like the rest of the US?
Went for a few walks around WCI’s big “Rivington” development in Danbury, CT last week. It was very strange, almost no construction going on. It seemed like a ghost town compared to my previous visits. The whole development is only about 5% complete and there are plans for thousands of houses + commercial development. Best of luck on that one.
Just wanted to say that here in Des Moines, houses are still moving - at least in the upscale “Waterbury/south of Grand” area in the city proper. They might not be moving at list, but they are selling. I had 8 houses bookmarked on Realtor.com (just looking, mind you!) and 5 of them are gone in the last two weeks. Now the suburbs, where they were plowing under acres and acres of cornfields to build cookie-cutter sub-divisions, are a completely different story. Builders seem just a touch, shall we say, anxious? Frankly, I don’t get it. It’s not like we’ve had a massive population boom hereabouts but they were building like they were expecting the entire population of Mexico City to move here. Maybe they were . . . the local rag (DM Register) would certainly approve!