It’s The Other F-Word In California
The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “Owing more on properties than they’re worth, some local homeowners are voluntarily walking away from their house notes. ‘They don’t need to be foreclosed on. They’re just turning in the keys,’said Martha Lucey, president and CEO of (a) Fresno-based nonprofit credit counselors. ‘The problem we’re seeing is that (these residents’) equity position is compromised. They’re upside-down.’”
“‘We hadn’t had any foreclosures until 2007. Now, we’ve had a couple walkaways and others insinuating that they would,’ said Paul Rigdon, VP of lending at North Highlands-based SAFE Credit Union.”
“In Sacramento, certified loss mitigator Linda Caoili counsels struggling homeowners facing foreclosure and offers seminars at local bookstores with titles such as ‘Foreclosure is Not a Dirty Word’ and ‘Foreclosure is Not the End of the World.’”
“‘They rode the equity bubble, and now there’s anxiety, denial, frustration, guilt. It’s the other f-word, but I tell them it’s just a business transaction,’ Caoili said. ‘I help people to say ‘foreclosure’ out loud.’”
The Auburn Journal. “A super-stretch limousine tour of bank-foreclosed properties in Placer and Sacramento counties is attempting to help smooth out what has been a bumpy real-estate market ride in recent months.”
“‘It’s about taking a different approach in a different market,’ said Auburn Gold Rush Group’s Sidne Allinger. ‘We try to make it light, fun and festive. If you focus on the gloom and doom, you’re going to find it becomes more prevalent.’”
“The tour has plenty of properties to pick from in Placer County. The county had 293 active bank-foreclosure listings on Wednesday, according to MLS figures. Since Sept. 1, 440 foreclosed properties have been sold.”
“As for taking the limo idea one step further and hiring a Greyhound-sized bus, Allinger said that’s not the Gold Rush Group style. ‘It reminds me of getting on the bus and going to Reno,’ she said.”
Inside Bay Area. “A mixed-use development, key to Livermore’s downtown vision, has hit a snag with the downturn of the housing market. Plans for Livermore Village, at the abandoned Lucky Supermarket lot on Railroad Avenue, include 280 residential units, commercial space and artist facilities.”
“It was approved in October 2006, but the site has remained vacant since then except for a few small shops on the west end. For a while, before they were turned away, the site was recently used by homeless people as a relatively hidden encampment.”
“‘Originally, the plan was to build a lot of condo units and a small amount of retail in the first phase,’ said Jim Anderson of developer Anderson Pacific. ‘Given the current market, that’s a very tough mix to proceed with rapidly.’”
“He said that by increasing the retail component in early stages, the plan would be ‘much more viable.’”
“He said that he is optimistic about the project in general, although the housing downturn was unexpected. ‘I don’t think anyone had the foresight to see the magnitude of the shift in the market,’ Anderson said. ‘It’s real dramatic. It’s not that there haven’t been tough markets before, but the rapid shift was unprecedented.’”
“Prices inevitably have come down with the market. ‘Initially, they were going to be (priced) in the mid-$600,000s,’ said Dennis Serrao, a broker for Tofino Row. ‘Now they’re in the mid-$500,000s.’”
“Diane Klein-Gwynne of Signature Properties said the Station Square homes took a similar hit. Prices for low-end units came down about $100,000, while the top of the line homes fell nearly $175,000. Prices currently range from $436,000 to $496,000.”
The Press Telegram. “Sing along if you like: The repo bus, the repo bus, all aboard the repo bus, it chugs along like this song - all aboard the repo bus.”
“Perhaps a jingle is a bit out of line for such a dour subject, but there’s no getting around the fact that one person’s loss is often another’s gain.”
“Foreclosures continue to climb, and that’s one reason why Cerritos-based Prudential California Realty and Bellflower-based Bristol Home Loans have kicked off their weekly Bank Repo Bus Tour on Saturdays.”
“Last Saturday the bus made stops at about a dozen homes with as many potential buyers. Stops were made at homes in Bellflower, Norwalk, Downey and Lakewood.”
“‘There’s a tremendous amount of inventory of repossessed homes,” said Tim Rush, VP of business development and recruitment for Prudential. ‘In our neighborhood, it’s safe to say there are a couple thousand foreclosures.’”
“‘Some of these homes, the prices have rolled back to what they were two or three years ago,’ Rush said.”
“All the homes on the tour are foreclosed homes being sold by the bank. Similar repo tours occurred in the early 1980s and the mid 1990s, Rush noted, adding, ‘the tide goes out and the tide goes in.’”
“‘Someone looking for a home that was selling for $600,000 a year ago that’s now $100,000 is going to continue to be renting, because that’s unrealistic,’ Rush said. ‘But that $600,000 house might be $475,000.’”
“‘How long are you going to wait and continue to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if you’re a renter?’ Rush asked. ‘We never know where the ceiling is; we never know where the floor is. People will look back on this market of 2008 and say, `I wish I’d have bought more real estate.’”
The Daily Bulletin. “It’s a market the likes of which few have seen. Desert homes perched atop beanstalk-like growth in value a year ago now entice cautious buyers with minimum bids in the sub-$100,000 range. Twenty-, 30- and 40-percent drops from peak prices have working-class renters searching for their first home, and savvy, deep-pocketed investors trying to expand their real estate empires.”
“Recent months have seen a handful of mega-auctions in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, where millions of dollars worth of homes have been taken off the hands of lenders and builders who found themselves suddenly saddled with devalued properties as the boom went bust.”
“The next auction is Saturday in Palm Springs. Another is set for Sunday in Ontario, where banks are looking to draw buyers for about 120 houses spanning the county, many now listed at prices that would have been laughable just 12 months ago.”
“‘I see the industry in general doing more auctions over a longer period of time than in previous real estate cycles,’ said Rhett Winchell, president of Kennedy Wilson Auction Group. ‘This one is different, driven by the rising prices and subprime lending … it could be down for a long period of time.’”
“According to DataQuick, prices plunged 20 percent countywide from January 2007 to January 2008, with median home prices in San Bernardino County dipping below $300,000. At the same time, foreclosures have decimated the market and flooded sellers with supply, further depreciating prices.”
“‘This housing market is going to continue to decline into 2009 in some areas,’ Winchell said, conceding that ’some areas’ is a designation that includes the Inland Empire.”
“Cal State San Bernardino economics professor Tom Pierce said the auction is a vital market mechanism, but one that creates winners and losers. In past real estate downturns, San Bernardino and other cities have been hurt by single-family homes falling into the hands of investors and renters, wreaking havoc on communities.”
“‘There’s a backlog of inventory in the market, and it has to be cleared,’ Pierce said. ‘You hope it doesn’t have bad social consequences.’”
From KSBY 6. “Four years ago, Eddie Zepeda bought his dream home with no money down for his wife and three children in the San Diego suburbs.”
“When his adjustable rate mortgage increased by $700 a month, he couldn’t keep up, despite working two jobs. And with values dropping, he now owes lenders more than the house is worth.”
“Here in California where there is a glut of foreclosed properties, authorities say predators on the internet are renting out vacant homes they don’t even own, and increasingly, people are squatting houses.”
“‘We’ve had about a dozen cases of people living in the home, inside like here, or outside the home. It’s turning into a huge problem,’ said real esate agent Steve Smallson.”
“Zepeda will be moving his family to a rented apartment, where he says despite the credit hit, they will start over.”
‘Walkaways could be a growing problem – or simply the latest media sensation, said Paul Leonard, California director of the Center for Responsible Lending. The cases, so far, are anecdotal.’
‘Yet, said Leonard, ‘the notion is very unsettling that foreclosure is an option (for homeowners). The home is a palace of things for many. The vast majority of foreclosures are involuntary.’
This guy and his group are showing their true colors. If people throw the keys at the lenders, he doesn’t have the supposed moral high ground upon which to grind his ax. Palace? These people are trashing these places. FBs are FBs, buddy, and the repo limo has left without you.
“Sugar Ray” Leonard has been hit with so many uppercuts and left and right hooks, that he can’t see the writing on the wall…
Most everybody that is upside down with no equity, will walk away.
Going bankrupt carries none of the stigma it did, when I was a lad.
It’s almost a badge of honor nowadays, in fact.
Bankruptcy is a financial tool used by shrewed moguls.
Yep. If it’s OK for Trump Hotels & Casinos, it’s ok for Mr. and Mrs. Six Pack. Or even Mr. and Mrs. Cabernet Sauvignon.
Sho’nuff. Corporations taught us well.
“when I was a lad.”
before you went insane?
Everything that has happened so far, including the latest “walking away” phenomenon is , in the words of Nietszche, human all too human.
RE: the latest “walking away” phenomenon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seuwhZvXa6Y&feature=related
This is to paul leonard, the CA director of the center for responsible lending. I just talked to KB homes and they told me that they can get me into one of their houses with just 3% down. Haven’t the banks and lenders learned anything yet. If you don’t get at least 20% down from people. the minute they go upside down their going to walk away.
Are you sure he is not the director of Irresponsible Lending?
Speaking of California, I toured a few foreclosures in Belmont in the hills this weekend. Not very many foreclosures here yet, but the Realtor I talked to said they were surprised to get them, and more keep coming in.
Crack… creak… SNAP!
Banked Owned property less than a mile from the HB pier — and not one of the 800sq shacks. A rebuild.
I guess Wall Street is going to have to add the walk-a way risk to loan underwriting models now ,and that will insure that people will need to put even bigger down payments .People do not get how all these walk-a -ways are going to affect future borrowers ability to get loans (at least from investment money ).
It’s really to bad that this credit expansion was abused to the degree it was and I’m waiting to see what the short and long term effects are going to be . I remember when I was young I use to hear about Countries that wouldn’t even give loans and you had to come up with all cash .The privilage of having a financial system that made it possible to purchase a home on time without needing to come up with all the cash ,expanding ownership ,in spite of all the flaws ,was something that should not of been abused .
Don’t worry, the new FHA “reform” is allowing 0% down.
Unless Washington somehow reins in the walk away risk in whatever supposed rescue/reform packages come down the pike. They made personal bankruptcy harder a couple years ago - they can certainly make it harder to just walk away in the future.
“As for taking the limo idea one step further and hiring a Greyhound-sized bus, Allinger said that’s not the Gold Rush Group style. ‘It reminds me of getting on the bus and going to Reno,’ she said.”
The last time I took a Greyhound bus, was in 1992 or thereabouts.
I was going on a backback trip in the High Sierra, and boarded said bus in downtown el lay. The Landers earthquake was the day before, and the 2 gents in the seat ahead of me started talking about it, and the 1st one said “I was in the joint, the last earthquake”, and the other one chime in and said “Yeah, me too”
Typical Greyhound clientelle.
Geting off the bus in Lone Pine, was quite a relief.
I rode a Grayhound once at age 20 from Oregon to Beserkley. Thank God there was a nun on board who let me set next to her. Very rough riders on board.
Geting off the bus in Lone Pine, was quite a relief.
I hope they promised to call you later.
My only long bus trip ever was prepaid by the US Army, and transported me to basic training. Some things you never forget.
Rode the greyhound from CA to Portland at age 14.
22hrs. UGH.
Independent and safe in those days.
Geting off the bus in Lone Pine, was quite a relief.
I ended up in lone pine after coming off an 8 day backpack trip in 1992. Came down off Mt whitney, hitched a ride to town and spend a day in that little village winding down . Later i took the inyo county shuttle bus from LP back to my original starting point at onion valley trailhead.
I road on a Greyhound bus from phoenix az, to Bermingham Al. That was the longest three days of my life. Have never stepped on a Greyhound bus since.
I realize I’m a day late and a couple dollars short but wow - talk about dredging up memories - I had a great Greyhound ride from New Orleans to Glacier National Park the summer of ‘74. Hanging around the Cheyenne depot in the wee hours of the morning and then falling in love with another college student as we chatted across Wyoming and Montana. I still remember his shock that I had no idea who Lynard Skynard was (too busy studying classical music at the local land grant college).
Say it isn’t so….people are actually not wanting to pay $600,000 to live in a townhouse on a busy street in a crapy part of Livermore near the railroad tracks? Nah..that must be misprint…Livermore is a cultural hub…a trendsetting community…a veritable paradise in a sea of….a….well it’s a paradise alright!
This can’t be happening…the Bay Area is immune to everthing that impacts the rest of the country because it’s soooooo special here!
PS: There are no “homeless” people in the Tri-Valley….only people between residences! Got that? I repeat there are NO homeless people in the Tri-Valley! Pleasanton passed a law against it and they load them on BART and pay enough fare to send them to Berkeley where they are welcomed as heros against the system….
This past Saturday, I attended the annual meeting of a local organization. It’s been around since the early 1970s, and its current “home” is a bit cramped.
So, the board and management have been looking around for another place. They found one a few blocks away from their current location.
But there’s a problem. It seems that some developer has eyes on this property. He/she wants to redevelop it into a high-rise condominium complex for college students.
Alas, there’s another problem. This particular property sits right next to the Union Pacific Railroad tracks. And, lemme tell you, it is one of the busiest freight corridors in the United States.
During the annual meeting’s question and answer session, I raised my hand and noted the prevalence of cockamamie real estate development ideas that are still floating around Tucson. I also noted that, historically, Tucson’s residential development tends not to happen next to railroad tracks. Reason? Those freight trains are LOUD. They also run a lot of hazmat cargo.
So, I advised the board and management to remain patient. Better real estate deals are on the way. All they have to do is keep their powder dry.
I live about a mile away from the tracks and hear those trains go by loud and clear. I can’t imagine living right next to them in one of those formerly “hot” developments (Ice House lofts, Armory Park del Sol, etc).
Funny you should mention the Ice House, Overrated. Have you picked up a copy of the Downtown Tucsonan lately? The Ice House units still sell for umpteen bucks, but you can rent one for about a grand a month.
As for Armory Park del Sol, I’ve got a buddy (in the same business as I am) and I periodically go to him for skills training. Last time I was there, we were talking about APDS, and he exclaimed that those houses cost a quarter of a million dollars. (The emphasis was his.
Needless to say, he was in no hurry to stop renting his live/work space and buy one.
The Downtown Tucsonan is such a joke - it’s just a big multi-page real estate ad, cover to cover.
“Hip & Mod, Urban & Sophisticated”, and literally 10 feet from the train tracks:
http://tucson.craigslist.org/rfs/588468037.html
Notice that “Feel the rumble of the trains” is a selling point.
Reminds me of the scene in the ‘Blues Brothers’ where they are in a flop hotel in Chicago next to the El. Classic!!!
“He/she wants to redevelop it into a high-rise condominium complex for college students.”
Party on dude!!!!!!!!!
Actually freight trains aren’t that loud; I lived about 100 feet from the main UP line in Sacramento for several years; many dozens of very long trains went by a day. Freight trains make just a feint clickety-clack sound. The sound is actually kind of appealing, much nicer than the dull roar you get from a freeway. Living near an intersection where they have to blow their horn is much louder, but the sound is only annoying if you are really close to the intersection. The horn is a chord that sounds quite nice at a distance.
I lived in Curtis Park in Sacramento next to the area where trains are hitched and unhitched (can’t recall the term). That is LOUD.
I was in midtown, where the trains just rumble by. I do remember hearing the switching yard when I went to city college, and yeah, that is an amazingly loud sound.
I always had a good laugh when I was standing on the sidewalk on J St. waiting for a mile long train to pass, thinking “this town certainly can’t take itself too seriously”.
I live a block from Caltrain and almost never hear it.
At least in La Jolla they are recruiting “bench sitters” so the bums can’t sit on the benches and scare away shoppers/tourists. I know the first place I’m moving to if I’m homeless is La Jolla!
http://www.examiner.com/a-1270012~Bench_Warmers_Sought_to_Block_Homeless.html
““‘How long are you going to wait and continue to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if you’re a renter?’ Rush asked. ‘We never know where the ceiling is; we never know where the floor is. People will look back on this market of 2008 and say, `I wish I’d have bought more real estate.’”
More REIT nonsense and pure speculation that the bottom will be this year. He even acknowledges that we don’t know when the floor will be and also completely glosses over the increases we’re seeing in both inventory and foreclosures.
he doesn’t know where the floor is, but he knows that people will buy when it costs about the same as it costs to rent.
oh wait, maybe he does know where the floor is!
Nitpick,
The floor is when investors can buy with about a 7% ROI after expenses that are financed on a 15 year mortgage. Its not at rent parity with a 30 year. Its rent parity on a 15 year mortgage plus a 7% return after all expenses. Big difference in the floor level… Of course this is an approximation.
Between now and then? Rents are going to drop.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
How do you calculate the ROI for rentals?
You use the capitalization rate. Ideally, it should be at least 8%. What that means that if you pay $100,000 for a rental property, it should be bringing at least $8,000 in annual rent.
There are other measuring sticks, and I’m sure that other HBB-ers will be happy to clue you in.
Here’s a pretty nice online investment property calculator from the University of Maryland. CAP rate is one of several metrics calculated.
http://militaryfinance.umuc.edu/calculators/InvestmentProperty.html
That metric has not been the case in Silicon Valley since 1993, at least for SFH.
It could be different this time, though.
(prices will continue to fall in east SJ, maybe will start to fall in the nicer cities. but buy=rent has not been seen for a long time).
It’s true that you never know where the floor is - but you can pretty easily tell you haven’t hit it until the elevator stops - or at least slows down.
I don’t know when the bottom WILL occur, now - but, by watching inventory and sales, I am pretty confident I’ll be to realize it when we get there.
I can’t believe a real estate professional would admit to not being able to judge current market conditions.
The BOTTOM is 2 levels below the Devil Rush, with your face upon the floor
My experience has been that people will pay more than rent for home ownership ,depending on the area (I’m talking before the boom years ) You have to factor in the new “no capital gains tax up to 500k “and the tax write-offs also . I am not saying that all the numbers add up in favor of home ownership as being the best investment ,I’m just saying this home ownership thing has been favored by people long before this housing boom . I guess part of it has to do with having a piece of the third rock from the sun and having a hedge against inflation and a forced savings plan . Also when the income taxes were higher in this Nation the tax benefits were even better regarding home ownership .Lowering the rates started this housing boom and its a crying shame that it turned into a inflated price bubble that priced people out of the market .
Americans have had a love affair with cars for decades that are over-priced also and it’s amazing how much people are willing to spend on transportation in this Country . I think about how much New Yorkers save on a monthly basis by using public transportation and walking . I got to admit I love having a car .
Bleak is probably not a strong enough word to describe the 4 awful lower middle class cities, surrounded by creeping south central-ness.
“Last Saturday the bus made stops at about a dozen homes with as many potential buyers. Stops were made at homes in Bellflower, Norwalk, Downey and Lakewood.”
Wellll…close to the beach, no? At least, closer than El Monte is.
“Wellll…close to the beach, no? At least, closer than El Monte is. ”
Both El monte and the entire midcities stretch of belflower, norwalk, paramount, downry, are pretty bland undistinguished/ undistinguishable colored blots on the thomas guide. No distingishish landmarks , no elevated features, no vibrant dwtns, no nothing, just blah!! Just a collection of mid-lower class plain-jane boxy stuccos mostly built around wwII and all their hoods in serious decayed states . And the weather is usually muggy and the air a pale-yellowish stifling haze.
Maybe a bit above Scentral but more boring. At least in Scent you get to live on the edge dodging bullets and experiencing the variety and spice of third world gutter squalor.
“Someone looking for a home that was selling for $600,000 a year ago that’s now $100,000 is going to continue to be renting, because that’s unrealistic,” Rush said. “But that $600,000 house might be $475,000.”
There is no home in those areas worth $300,000. Period. Norwalk is a ugly duckling community with 4-5 fwys running thru or around it. It is about half a degree better that Scentral. Belflower is a working/ lower- working class, very blue collar burg probaby 70% immigrant. Salary is under $50,000 per household.
Downey has some decent hoods with large ranch spreads on large lots but has plenty of rough pockets along it edges. Household Income is just over $50,000 .
Lakewood is still a decent tidy middle-lower middle class community but all homes there are WWII era 2/1- 3/1 1000-1200 ft tiny cottages on standard 5000-6000 lots . Lakewood average prices are now around $400,000 and going down. Remember, lakewood is the best of the lot so image how bad the rest of the hoods are.
Homes prices in this entire area(called mid-cities) should be no more than $300,000 in the very best areas and around $200,000 in the marginal crapped out hood areas of Bellfower & norwalk
I second everything PeterM said. They’re illegal immigrant hellholes.
Authorities say predators on the internet are renting out vacant homes they don’t even own.
_________________________________________________________
Neat idea — talk about making money in real estate with no money down!
This just might help out the neighborhood by getting residents into what otherwise might become a ghost town.
Very funny, I needed that at this point of the day.
How about renting to three or four families at once, then hiding and video taping the confrontations. Priceless. hehehehehehe
I pay my landlord every month $1300. He hasn’t paid his mortgage, property taxes, or the HOA in months judging by the default notices we get in the mail or the liens we lookup online. He owns it through a corporation he created which he will just declare bankruptcy on his multiple rentals, and walk away with lots of cash and his credit will be perfect. Pisses me off every time I write him a check knowing I wont see a penny of my deposit back if his corporation goes BK.
The best thing I can hope for is I get to live here rent free (squat) a few months before the bank evicts me to make up for my deposit and moving expenses.
What do you think would happen if you change the locks and decide not to pay him either ?
I wonder if his bank would give you an escrow account?
When we looked at our place in La Costa I specifically asked the landlord when she bought and she said ‘97. Made me reasonably comfortable that she wouldn’t be pressured to jack up rents. Then again, a year later she had an appraisal for a refi. So far..so good.
Sorry about the OT tidbit, but I thought it was quite amusing…
Driving into work today, I travel through University Town Center here in San Diego, which has many bio-tech and financial companies. Anyways, for the past 3 years or so, there’s been a janitorial union that has moved from company to company, picketing outside with a large sign that says “Shame on ‘fill in company name’. Labor dispute.” The three or so people holding up the sign are usually of the hispanic persuasion. Today however, a little twist was added to the mix. The union was picketing outside la jolla country day high school, a private and elite school for the wealthy. This time though, a crusty old man (NYCBoy, did you take a vacation out to san diego?
was pacing in front of the picketers with a yellow sign in the shape of a stop sign that read “Stop Illegal Immigration”. Classic stuff! Didn’t honk the horn, but smiled to myself and went on my way.
That was Palmetto. Actually, I don’t think either NYCityBoy or Palmy are all that old, crusty maybe, but not old and crusty.
LOL that’s classic…
I’ve seen NYCBoy face to face. He’s well under 40.
I’ve seen NYCBoy face to face. ..
And you lived to tell about it?
yeah, like you;d catch palmetto in Colorado? there aint no boiled peanut stands west of the mississippi . . .
“Prices inevitably have come down with the market. ‘Initially, they were going to be (priced) in the mid-$600,000s,’ said Dennis Serrao, a broker for Tofino Row. ‘Now they’re in the mid-$500,000s.’”
So instead of being wildly and unjustifiably overpriced they’re now just insanely overpriced ? Progress !
The homeowner next door, who left for some Las Vegas business opportunity about 3 years ago and decided, yes siree, that home prices in the neighborhood just weren’t high enough ($600k at the time, for homes selling @ 200K in 1999) has just put the house on the market, for the 2nd time in the past year. Hoping for that Spring Bounce! In between he’s been renting it out and paying the mort on another home he bought in Las Vegas at the height of the boom. Guess it hasn’t worked out for him.
‘We never know where the ceiling is; we never know where the floor is. People will look back on this market of 2008 and say, `I wish I’d have bought more real estate.’”
This guy’s in training for Secretary of Defense.
“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. ”
Donald Rumsfeld
That quote should be stapled to the desk of any person that attempts to manage a complex situation. I am unprepared to defend Rumsfeld on any other point. But, that memo is brilliant as it reminds people to be a little humble about their conclusions. Some concern about unknown unknowns (e.g., how to control Iraq after the invasion springs to mind) better be floating around the Pentagon.
Not a bad sentiment, if that’s its meaning - but could have been simply expressed as:
We don’t know everything.
However, he used it to define a rational intellectual foundation for the new US Pre-emptive Attack doctrine.
In any case, it’s at least ironic coming from Rumsfeld especially in regard to Iraq - don’t you think?
Not so different then this Realtor’s® - we can’t know everything so buy now.
‘We never know where the ceiling is; we never know where the floor is. ”
Perhaps if you idiot Realtors knew any math besides calculating your commission you would know where the ceiling and floor is.
This guy doesn’t even know when the ceiling WAS. He says “Some of these homes have rolled back to the level of two or three years ago.” BS BS BS…two years ago, prices were already flat to falling, despite the ongoing rise of that “median” statistic. I bet some of the homes he is talking about have prices back to the level of 3.5-4.0 years ago.
“‘How long are you going to wait and continue to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if you’re a renter?’ Rush asked.”
Man, no matter how many times these tools trot out this gem it never gets old.
I’m delighted to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if that somebody is also making the tax payment, the insurance payment, the repair payments, the water bill, etc.
My monthly rent wouldn’t pay *half* of a FB’s mortgage payment. Renting in Silicon Valley is a total no-brainer until prices have fallen 50%.
You know, I don’t think my LL has a mortgage, Rush.
But thanks for sharing.
Yep - followed by an offer to put you in a house with no money down or even a neg-am mortgage (although maybe not so much these days).
Someone needs to come up with a line that expresses the inherent liability you expose yourself by buying a house that is outside of your means with risky financing - something that captures the fact that you’re not just thowing money away on interest, you’re saddling yourself with potential negative equity in the future.
(but catchier, of course)
In the last month our landlord had the fun task of learning from me that the patio slab had a small crack (hopefully superficial, problably not) during the most recent quake in Mexico, that the large sliding windows were askew (due to diff settelment in the building) and, just yesterday, that the upstairs (condo complex) had a water pipe burst and flood the walls around the unit. Renting this place has shown me all the problems over the last 2 years where I would never buy here. Oh, and the price drops more than outpaced the money I paid for rent. I must be too unsophisticated to enjoy all that.
I went wine tasting this weekend in Sonoma. There were “Bank-owned home” signs on every single freeway exit. I saw a number of auction signs as well. The bloodbath seems to have hit the area hard. Incredibly, I overheard one woman at one of the wineries babble on about “how much cheaper it is out here… why you could get a house for 700k out here.”
Being somewhat drunk, I couldn’t help but tell her that if she did, she’d be catching an awful lot of knives and that the foreclosures in the area weren’t exactly a healthy sign.
I got a pretty nasty look…
As I recall, there aren’t a lot of jobs in Sonoma County. So that’s not surprising.
RE: Being somewhat drunk, I couldn’t help but tell her that if she did, she’d be catching an awful lot of knives and that the foreclosures in the area weren’t exactly a healthy sign.
I got a pretty nasty look…
Hmmm… a quasi-wine drunk member of Ben’s blog out accosting FB’ers in public places on the danger of foreclosures and catchin’ fallin’ knives.
Surprised the local gendarmes weren’t summoned to throw you in the pokey for creating a public nuisance, disturbing the peace, and drunk & disorderly- LOL!
90 day, JERRY! When you’re hot you’re hot!
No matter what they say about how scary the current credit crisis is, we have a long way to go, given the prevalence of the attitudes this woman displayed. The hidden asssumption is still that the real estate never goes down, and that it is the best investment. Until these entranched opinions are beaten out of the majority of people, don’t even think of a recovery.
The entire State of California is now discovering that there IS a BIG difference in acting like a bunch of millionaires and BEING a bunch of millionaires
Bout freaking time.
Mikey, I hear ya. Maybe the pretenious a-holes will learn civility and humility.
I went out at lunch (Westlake Village area) and the outside eating areas (tables/chairs) for eateries weren’t busy. I bring mine, healthier and cost effective.
Let us hope the SUV craze will die a quick death too, as fuel hits $4.00+.
Being parsimonious, I can’t relate to the yuppie crowd. My granny taught me about the Great Depression. It stuck.
“My granny taught me about the Great Depression. It stuck.”
Methinks a refresher course is currently being matriculated.
Everyone will be paying the increases in taxes in California acting or otherwise.
I’m just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Waiting for california to tell me we all have to share in the loss of revinue and contribute more. Seriously looking for the next opertunity (job) out of California. Unfortunatley my line of work is rare outside the DOD.
“A super-stretch limousine tour of bank-foreclosed properties”
Hey, the tide’s going out really fast. Oh looky at all of the pretty shells it left behind!
Ouch! Just stepped on a jellyfish!
What’s that grey line on the horizon? Is it just me or is it getting closer?
“‘Someone looking for a home that was selling for $600,000 a year ago that’s now $100,000 is going to continue to be renting, because that’s unrealistic,’ Rush said. ‘But that $600,000 house might be $475,000.’”
_____________________________________________________
Big difference between 20% off the peak and 80% off the peak. How about we split the difference and say prices will be 50% off the peak?
Sounds eerily right…
Once this thing gets rolling there’s gonna be a race to the bottom the likes of which have never been seen, led by lenders who must unload their REOs. 300K? 100K? How about $85K?
Private sellers and their agents will be left in the dust.
“How about $85K?”
How about a dollar as HUD offered in Cleveland?
Yeah. That kinda thing sure helps the cause.. but only a local govt entity is offered that deal. And yet, even at a buck, only 500 or so homes have been accepted for the rehab phase.
If ya can’t hardly give ‘em away now, what’s it gonna be like in a year or two.
Sorry for sounding like a broken record….
$475,000……hahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!! That’s insane.
I agree with you but in some areas with no job growth and abundence of over building it may even be more……..
The area I am watching has all but one lender refusing to lower the price on Reos as the amount continues to rise.One house went up for auction at $86K,did not sell,went on Mls for $209K then $199K now last week $193K.When the banks finally cave in and clear the inventory prices will rapidly decline.
When his adjustable rate mortgage increased by $700 a month, he couldn’t keep up, despite working two jobs. And with values dropping, he now owes lenders more than the house is worth.”
And this dude, multiplied by more than a million folks in CA will give a true picture of the bleak outlook there. Big reason why I left and haven’t looked back.
“People will look back on this market of 2008 and say, `I wish I’d have bought more real estate.’””
I for one *will* be saying “I wish that idiot Tim Rush had bought more real estate”.
“How long are you going to wait and continue to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if you’re a renter”
If the landlord bought in the past 4 years, good luck with having my rent even cover half of his/her PITI + maintenance. How long will recent buyers make the bank’s interest payment on an underwater asset before they decide to save on monthly expenses by renting?
During yesterday’s bike ride, I passed by a property that was bought by some whizbang investors last May. It has two SFR houses on it, and the owner had a great deal of difficulty filling both. I suspect that’s why this particular property is back on the resale market.
Took a trip to the IE (Temecula, CA) this weekend. Every Furniture store I could see had a giant Going out of Business sign. A boat dealer had a giant sign that read “Mom called, said it’s OK to BUY ME!”
Empty Spec Office parks, not just one building, with “your name here”.
The party is over with in Temecula.
Same here in Ventura County. Lots of GOOB sales. Don’t fret, that stimulus package will save the economy! Jobs..smobs, who needs them, with a check to spend. No home equity, not to worry, free interest until 2012 at a furniture store.(I saw that advertised and had to blink.)
My mom would call and say, “A boat!?! Are you NUTS? That’s a big hole to pour money into!”
I used to own a boat. The day I bought it, a friend told me that buying a boat is the 2nd happiest day in one’s life. The happiest? The day he sells it.
He was right. Unless you live on the water or are insanely rich, boats are for renting. Kinda like houses.
I was doing my weekly “virtual” foreclosure tour of select neighborhoods (OK ones I used to live in around CA). Boy the Paseo Del Sol area off of So. 79 in Temecula must be a sight to see. There is at least one foreclosure on EVERY street around where we rented for a short while in 2005. Man the HOA must be hurt’in for certain along with the remaining “homeowners”.
I was driving around Sunday looking at some REO properties and saw the furniture GOOB signs on every corner. That’s not that unusual, they’ve been around for a few months now. But what caught my eye was a caravan of cars with giant GOOB signs for the same stores strapped to the roof. They were just driving around Riverside. There were 4 or 5 of them in a big caravan. Quite a sight!
Nearly everything is hurting. If you take a few minutes to look around you see the symptoms every where. The restaurants aren’t busy, the mall isn’t busy, the golf course isn’t busy. A couple of car dealers are packing it up in the IE. It’s gonna get ugly.
I work near Temecula, we moved to a new office building…it still sits empty…that was Sept 2006. Also, took a picture on Murrieta Hot Springs of the “Elite Real Estate Group” office with a big “For Lease” sign on it…must have not been so elite. I’ll send it to the HBB gallery as well.
“When his adjustable rate mortgage increased by $700 a month, he couldn’t keep up, despite working two jobs. And with values dropping, he now owes lenders more than the house is worth.”
Looks like his Teaser Rate became a Taser Rate
“Don’t tase me bro!”
ROTFLMAO Noonanand my nice Californal navel orange got juiced
A furniture store I used to mystery shop doesn’t seem to be doing the shopping anymore. They must be hurting here in Albuquerque also. A fairly expensive store. I have a friend that sells high end rugs at a furniture store. His sales are down. All of that HELOC money looks to have dried up. Even in a boomin’ place like here (hint - sarcasm). But I do know that they are planning on turning Albuquerque into another Las Vegas. The Indian tribes are doing a great business. All of the casinos are full and expanding. And there are plans to build more. I don’t know where the money is coming from (not from me). But, economy stimulus (more sarcasm)?
I seem to recall having the money readily available when I last bought furniture. No HELOCs or installment plans needed.
Az Slim-
You paid cash?
That’s too antiquated This is the 21st century.
ot, but did you guys see that bj mastercard commercial? google video it. Its funny.
Most of the time I do. But I will confess to (gasp!) borrowing from my savings to buy an oh-so-comfy Tempur-pedic mattress. It’s made from much better sleepy-time around the Arizona Slim Ranch.
And, not to worry. The savings have long since been repaid.
Ooops. Should have said “made for much better.”
And, yes, I did get enough sleep last night.
We’re cash and carry too, and yes we borrow against our savings at times.
Thanks for the insight about your new bed. Its time for us to buy one too. (16 y/o one.)
There must be a few of us cash and carry folks still kicking round. When they RFID the currency, there goes our autonomy. Not happy about that.
It will get scanned at the bank when you take it out, and will get scanned at the p.o.s.
Do you live on a ranch? Can we visit?
“When they RFID the currency, there goes our autonomy.”
Just put the cash in a microwave. That’ll take care of the RFID business.
in a microwave / sure, good for burning out the chip but then the retailer will probably have to refuse the currency as it is now “suspect”. might be counterfeit, dontcha know. and we all DO know that (especially Olygurl) babyjeebus cries when terrorist money is used by god fearing amerikans
Liar loans make the front page of the Albuquerque Journal.
Somewhere near my home. Big difference between $26K/mo (doctor/successful businessman) and under $2K/mo (Taco Bl manager or equivalent)
In Albuquerque, federal investigations are beginning to surface.
In one recent case, a mortgage broker/real estate agent is accused of claiming a purchaser’s monthly income was $26,120, when the buyer’s real income was $1,900 a month. In another application, the home buyer’s monthly income was listed at an inflated $16,500.
The idea was to “flip” high-end homes near Tramway NE, generating income from commissions and fees for the real estate agent/mortgage broker, according to an FBI search warrant affidavit filed in federal court Thursday.
http://www.abqjournal.com/news/metro/292370metro03-10-08.htm
“‘Someone looking for a home that was selling for $600,000 a year ago that’s now $100,000 is going to continue to be renting, because that’s unrealistic,’ Rush said. ‘But that $600,000 house might be $475,000.’”
I have to agree a bit. We get overboard. I was looking at land and it cost the developers $120K just to buy it from the city (here in Oakland) for a 2000 sq feet parcel. They then build a house which they try to sell for $600K. I realistically expect a $600K house in the Bay Area to be around $375.
Anyone who think it will go to 100K or lower is just dreaming.
What’s this we stuff? You got a mouse in your pocket?
Anyway, people used to say the same thing last year when someone here mentioned 30% off. Truth is, nobody knows how low it will go.
Land is the most volatile in price, and development fees? Please, that’s just made up at city hall. We’ll see what the city charges 3 years into a recession and everybody is begging for work. Plus. I’ve already found reports of prices in California towns 50% BELOW replacement cost.
Now go back to your mouse and stop lecturing us about what is dreaming.
I guess these guys missed all the properties available in Michigan for a dollar. Once you fix them up you have instant equity, or is that instant negative equity ?
“Is that a mouse in your pocket or are you just glad to see me ? “
Are we talkin’ the one-eyed trouser mouse here? So you’re sending this cat off to the mastebatorium? That is so cool. Well done, Ben!
Don’t mouse me bro!
If it was worth 100,000 in 1994, that is the likely bottom plus inflation minus 10%.
Technicians would look at this bubble bursting like a commodity. The only difference any technical analyst has, is where is the start point. I use 1994 as the start of the housing bubble. I expect 80%+ down in much of California.
Don’t sugar coat it, Hoz.
Wow, I’m scared when Hoz is more pessimistic than I am.
$375,000 is still insane. And don’t give me this “it’s California” mumbo jumbo either (no offense meant to our Cali friends). For most of the rest of the country, that phrase just entitles us to an even bigger discount.
That’s okay Blano. I was born in San Francisco and I wouldn’t even pay $375,000.
“I was looking at land and it cost the developers $120K just to buy it from the city”
Land prices go up, land prices go down. It’s just dirt. So do material costs, and labor costs.
Additionally, *existing* house prices can go far below “replacement costs”.
The market doesn’t really care what the developer paid for the land or the most recent fees. Affordability is king.
“In Sacramento, certified loss mitigator Linda Caoili counsels struggling homeowners facing foreclosure and offers seminars at local bookstores with titles such as ‘Foreclosure is Not a Dirty Word’ and ‘Foreclosure is Not the End of the World.’”
“‘They rode the equity bubble, and now there’s anxiety, denial, frustration, guilt. It’s the other f-word, but I tell them it’s just a business transaction,’ Caoili said. ‘I help people to say ‘foreclosure’ out loud.’”
Wow, could 12-Step programs for FBs be far behind? “Hello, my name is Joe H. and I’m a cheap-money-aholic.”
“certified loss mitigator”
Maybe a new career path here?
http://www.americanlossmitigationinstitute.com/lossmitigationfaqs.asp
il repeato:
Sky Pilot, how high can you fly?
You never ever ever reach the sky.
My musicosous today is:
“There must be some way out of here,” said the joker to the thief,
“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief.
Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth,
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth.”
“No reason to get excited,” the thief, he kindly spoke,
“There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke.
But you and I, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate,
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late.”
All along the watchtower, princes kept the view
While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too.
Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl,
Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl.”
Bod Dylan
None of them know what any of it is worth
Wasn’t that Jimi Hendrix???
Nah
Mr. Hendrix
Well i
Wait around train station waitin’ for the train
Waiting for the train, yeah
Take me yeah
From this lonesome place
Well now whole lot a people put me down without a change,yeah
My girl then called me a discrace
She did
With tears burnnin’ yeah
With tears burning me yeah
With tears burning me way down in my heart
Well you know it’s too bad little girl it’s too bad
To bad we, have to part
Have to part
Hmmm hm hmmm hmmm hm hmmm…
Oh dear
Goin’ to leave this town
Hmm yeah got to leave this town
Gonna to make a whole lot of money
Gonna be big yeah
Gonna be big yeah
I’m gonna buy this town
Gonna buy this town
And out it all, in my shoes
Might even give a piece to you
That’s what i’m gonna do
What i’m gonna do
What i’m gonna do
Do think i’d do that
“Wasn’t that Jimi Hendrix???”
Don’t make me JT you bro!
Bob Dylan. Redone by Hendrix and a few others.
I believe it’s one of the very, very few songs where Bob Dylan (somewhat) changed his own concert rendition after hearing a cover.
“Zepeda will be moving his family to a rented apartment, where he says despite the credit hit, they will start over.”
This guy used walkaway.com by paying $1000.00
How many people 2 to 5 years from now will be crying about how that website told them they will be able to qualify for another mortgage within a short period of time, and finding out that they have a huge scarlett letter on thier chest for a new mortgage and possibly for a job interview. “but they told me I will be able to repair my credit in a short period of time. They really screwed me big time. How can they allow this business to do business. The government should’ve regulated this industry….and so on, and so on”
Let’s chant together and save the nation …
The House, the House depends on US,
We must, we must fix the Bust,
The Banks, the banks, depend on US,
Where’s MY Rebate CHECK Uncle Sam ?
It’s the last acceptable form of discrimination: no child tax credits, rebate checks or Roth IRAs for you “rich” people making over 150K.
It’s a lot lower than that if you’re single.
OT, but since Spring has almost sprung, I thought ya’ll would find this blurb from the HBB vault pretty interesting; this is transcript from a Nightly Business Report segment on the housing bubble that aired on September 28th, 2007……amazing how some of the *gloomier* predictions now look silly and overly optimistic….
“GERSH: So how bad could it get? Standard & Poor’s expects home prices will hit bottom next spring, declining 8 percent from the peak in early 2006. Moodyseconomy.com is even gloomier, projecting a 10 percent decline. Goldman Sachs and Lawler Economic both figure that home prices could fall as much as 15 percent nationwide. Compared to just a few months ago, twice as many builders are now reporting the credit crunch in the mortgage market is hurting their sales. National Association of Home Builders economist David Seiders expects his members will be under more pressure to reduce prices.”
Excellent post hondje. And now they’re saying the Dow can lose only a couple hundred more points, right?
“Where’s MY Rebate CHECK Uncle Sam”
Today I begged my tax accountant to reduce my future income by 50% so I can save on the estimated tax.
No rebate just a write off.
Income tax is a burden, but no worse than it ever is.
Anybody sick of paying tax, when these frauds abound?
This show reminds me of the carnage from the dot butt bomb.
Where I grew up nice people don’t talk about money.
Im sick of that rule. Let’s get it all out in the open.
ML, you first.
“Today I begged my tax accountant to reduce my future income…”
Huh?
My main income is treasury bonds and they are down bill.
(who’s ML? Merrill Lynch?)
Just got something from my Alumni Association and it pertains to the California Real Estate Market. If anyone wants to heckle the panelists with me and you live in San Diego, its free!
UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast:
The United States and California Economic Outlook
Thursday, March 27, 2008
7:00am - Registration
8:00am - 11:00am - Presentation
The University Club
Atop Symphony Towers
Main Dining Room
750 B Street, Suite 3400
San Diego, CA 92101
Cost: FREE!!
7am -Registration
8am -Michael Maloney - Welcome and Introductions
8:10am -Dan Walters - Is California Governable?
8:50am -David Hayes-Bautista, Ph.D.
9:20am -Break
9:30am -Kirk Lesh - Real Estate Outlook for 2008
10am -Bill Watkins, Ph.D. - United States and California Economic Review and Forecast
11am -Closing Remarks
To RSVP:
Call (805) 893-5159
or email: events@ucsb-efp.com
For more information visit: http://www.ucsb-efp.com
Ha, 7am-11am on a Thursday? Perfect for out-of-work realtors I suppose. I wonder if those Ph.D.s are as intelligent as the husband-wife duo at Pomona College who predicted that prices there wouldn’t fall by a nickel.
“‘I see the industry in general doing more auctions over a longer period of time than in previous real estate cycles,’ said Rhett Winchell, president of Kennedy Wilson Auction Group.”
Hahaha, how funny to see Rhett’s name in print, we see him about once every 2 months at probate sales…he’s having to work a lot harder for his $$ these days.
“‘How long are you going to wait and continue to make somebody else’s mortgage payment if you’re a renter?’
‘You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.’ Inigo Montoya, Princess Bride
In past real estate downturns, San Bernardino and other cities have been hurt by single-family homes falling into the hands of investors and *****renters,**** wreaking havoc on communities.”
LOL
“Cry havoc and release the renters of war!”
Spook
Evil renters, wreaking havoc. Oh, the humanity!
See what happens when bitter, jealous people get a taste of power and control?
LOL! When you combine:
“Cry havoc and release the renters of war!”
with:
“See what happens when bitter, jealous people get a taste of power and control.” (I first read it as a statement, not a question)
You’ve got one hell of a movie trailer…
In past real estate downturns, San Bernardino and other cities have been hurt by single-family homes falling into the hands of investors and renters, wreaking havoc on communities
This didn’t happen during the boom, during which every yahoo in SoCal was buying “investment property” left and right? Besides, what’s wrong with having the property occupied by renters? Surely they wouldn’t prefer a vacant house.
Though I believe it is better for a property to have an occupant (even if a renter) than to sit vacant, renters’ and their landlords’ collectively have misaligned incentives to properly maintain a property compared to the incentives facing a sole owner-occupant.
I can attest to this, having owned two homes before recently finding myself in the curious position of renting a home in mid-life. I am disinclined to spend my weekends carrying out repairs that increase the value of the landlord’s investment with only a short-term benefit to my family, while the landlord seems content to let the value of her investment slide, since she does not have to endure the unpleasant experience of living in a poorly maintained home; hence my tolerance threshold for deferred maintenance is much higher than when I owned. Unfortunately for my landlord, by the time she sells her investment, deferred maintenance issues could potentially be fully discounted into the sale price.
This is no doubt true; I as a renter am disinclined to do any maintenance work of any kind, and my landlord will do the minimum necessary to keep the place from falling apart.
However, there are certainly many owner-occupants who also can’t seem to be bothered with maintenance; witness the thousands and thousands of shabby, unkempt properties that litter Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and much of SoCal - in particular any neighborhood that is occupied mostly by old people tends to look really dumpy, even if there are zero rental properties.
anyone buy thornberg under a dollar on monday?
it is over 2$ right now- nice move on a small bet