Economic Darwinism In California
The BBC News reports on California. “In a large, featureless convention centre 40 miles east of Los Angeles, more than 1,000 people have gathered early on a Sunday morning. More than 100 houses are up for sale here and every two to three minutes a property goes under the hammer. Similar auctions of repossessed houses are taking place nearly every weekend in California, where banks are cutting their losses from millions of dollars of bad debt.”
“There are bargains to be had. One man says he paid $375,000 for a house valued at $616,000. Lot 132 was a five-bedroom family home with a pool and three-car garage on La Salle Circle, Corona.”
“It was expected to fetch some $400,000. In the end Cornelius Foster and Debra Moore paid $500,000 for it; still less than the $700,000 it was originally valued at. ‘We’re very excited,’ Cornelius says. ‘It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.’”
“In one house on La Salle Circle, two days before its auction, an estate agent’s sign outside proudly proclaims ’selling the American Dream since 1969.’”
“But, as estate agent Julie Bruckner tours the property with its chandelier in the living room and a huge walk-in closet upstairs, she is well aware of a poignant irony. ‘There are so many in this area that are vacant.’”
“The Corona area has the third highest rate of foreclosures, or repossessions, in the United States. On La Salle Circle at least three properties were empty, awaiting sale.”
“One local resident is Jeanette Lovell, a British expat. She and her husband are not in mortgage difficulties, yet she was still worried about her own home’s value. ‘We may have to relocate for my husband’s job,’ Ms Lovell says. ‘And I know that our house has lost $150,000 in value in 18 months - if we can sell it at all.’”
“Cindy Robinson, another resident of La Salle Circle, predicts more problems: ‘You get graffiti,’ she says. ‘And then white collar crime.’”
The Desert Sun. “In a rare flash of optimism, two UCLA economists Tuesday forecast that California, while experiencing a ’slightly slower’ economy, will not sink into recession.”
“The UCLA economists noted that, nationally, housing construction starts had fallen from 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million last January. ‘Never before have we had this kind of collapse in housing that was not accompanied by a recession,’ they wrote. ‘This time is different.’”
“‘I think they’re wrong,’ said John Husing, president of Economics and Politics Inc. of Redlands. ‘I think we are in a recession. As much as anything else, if you look at the volume of containers going through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which is a precursor of what retailers are expecting, you’ll see that in 2006, the number of containers went up 900,000. Last year, it was down 15,000. Since 1990, the number has never gone down.’”
“Husing added he had ‘no doubt the Inland Empire will be in a recession in 2008. Last year, there were just 596 jobs added to the work force. The year before 44,200 were added. This year, the number will be probably negative. I’ve studied this economy for 44 years and the number has never been negative.’”
“Meanwhile, two professors from USC added to the real estate gloom by predicting that because of demographics, the slowdown could last two more decades. Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography, said as the baby-boomers age, they will become home-sellers rather than buyers.”
“Myers and Sungho Ryu, a doctoral candidate at USC’s School of Policy, Planning and Development, said that once the baby-boomers begin selling, ‘it could dominate the market for up to two decades.’”
The Record Searchlight. “Rachel Carrino knows that when times are tough, specialty retailers are the first to feel the budget crunch.”
“‘We are a want’ store, not a need’ store, so we are kind of the last place on everyone’s list,’ said Carrino, whose Candle Connection in the Mt. Shasta Mall has seen declining sales since the fall. ‘The biggest telltale sign was Christmas. I usually do so well at Christmas; it gets me through the year.’”
“Carrino isn’t going out of business, but this year, holiday sales at Candle Connection were down about 35 percent from 2006. The drop has forced Carrino to take a close look at her budget and figure out how she’s going to make it to Christmas 2008.”
“‘I feel lucky because I am still in business, but I will tell you if something doesn’t happen soon — I know of businesses that are on the edge,’ Carrino said.”
“Consultant Scott Camp, who does marketing and special projects for the Greater Redding Chamber of Commerce, said anecdotally the economy has gotten worse for north state retailers since the holidays.”
“‘Some of the most bulletproof businesses in town have been hit hard by a variety of influences,’ Camp said.”
“‘This is economic Darwinism,’ Dan Ansell, chairman of Greenberg Traurig LLP’s real estate operations division, told the AP. ‘Those retailers and businesses that have a product that is desired by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’”
The San Mateo County Times. “Home sales continued to fall in San Mateo County in February, as tighter lending standards and waning consumer confidence pulled buyers from the market. Home sales sagged 22 percent compared with February 2007, according to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors.”
“‘Buyers are feeling uncomfortable with the market, and their confidence in the economy is low,’ said Denise Aquila, a real estate agent in San Carlos. ‘It’s very frightening to think of buying now, and in two years the house is worth less than you paid for it.’”
“Aquila said lenders’ guidelines and rates are changing daily, causing confusion for buyers. Throw in high gas prices and relentless company layoffs, and buyer confidence is on the decline, Aquila said.”
“As foreclosures continue rising around the county — they were up threefold in January — home prices continue to be dragged down dramatically in blue-collar areas such as Daly City, San Bruno and South San Francisco.”
“In Daly City, the median price of a home in February was $577,450, down more than $150,000 from $743,000 in February 2007. The median price in South San Francisco was $608,500 in February, down from $766,250 in February 2007.”
“‘Banks are dumping foreclosed homes on the market in Daly City and San Bruno, just to get them off the books,’ Aquila said. ‘That’s pushing down the value of homes in the neighborhoods of the foreclosures.’”
“Parts of East Palo Alto and eastern San Mateo are also seeing home prices fall due to foreclosure problems, he said. In Belmont, where 25 or 30 homes typically sell in a month, only five sold in February, Diridon said.”
“Many offers accepted are below the asking price, the report shows. In many cases, the selling price is down 10 percent or more, especially in working-class neighborhoods. The median price of a condominium in the county was $485,000 in February, down from $558,000 in February 2007.”
“‘The areas where first-time home buyers stretched to get in are really hurting,’ said Tom Diridon, a broker in Belmont. ‘A lot of those people shouldn’t have been first-time buyers.’”
The Daily Press. “Prices of existing homes in the Victor Valley dropped 4 percent last month and almost seven out of 10 homes sold locally in February were bank owned, according to a report released Monday.”
“Since February 2007, Victor Valley home prices have tumbled 34.6 percent, according to figures compiled from the Victor Valley MLS by Larry Trombley of Century 21 Rose Realty in Hesperia.”
“According to the listings, last month was the worst February for the Victor Valley housing market in at least 11 years.”
“Only five percent of homes on the market sold in February, with the average sales price topping $215,000. The average price per square foot ranged from $96 in Adelanto to $167 in Spring Valley Lake.”
“‘We haven’t hit the tip,’ said Carolyn McNamara, owner of The McNamara Group real estate company. ‘I think we’re going to continue to decline, but I’m hoping it will slow down in the next three to four months.’”
“It was expected to fetch some $400,000. In the end Cornelius Foster and Debra Moore paid $500,000 for it; still less than the $700,000 it was originally valued at. ‘We’re very excited,’ Cornelius says. ‘It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.’”
500K for a fixer upper in Corona. I’m sure he’s gonna be thrilled when it can’t fetch 300K.
You’d think with the fact that lots are at least 40% off peak (and probably more) in Corona, you’d start skipping the ‘fixing up’ someone else’s nightmare and move on to building from scratch. Auctions do attract idiots. If you have 100 houses and 1000 bidders. Run away.
$500K in Corona?
It’s good to know that bloggers here are also partaking of the Maui-Wowie!
Where are the freakin’ salaries?
Bee-yatch, try $200K, if that!
Are you telling me this couple had at least $50k cash (I’ll assume the buyer pays no closing costs at this auction) and earns more than $150k annual? Who’s lending the money?
500k is also 120x $4,100 monthly rent. I doubt that house gets that. And Corona doesn’t get a premium.
‘We’re very excited,’ Cornelius says. ‘It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.’”
Dr. Zira: What will he find out there, doctor?
Dr. Zaius: His destiny.
Niiiiiiice
“We’re very excited, Cornelius says. It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.
Dr. Zira: What will he find out there, doctor?
Dr. Zaius: His destiny.”
George Taylor: It’s a mad house! A mad house!
Human see, human do.
Mr Lad Insane, you’ve been awfully quiet lately, good to see you!
i’ve been on holiday, and needed a rest from being in the tranches…
Dr. Zeus, Dr. Zeus! “Who needs the Quick E Mart? The floors are sticky mart.”
At work, so I am late to this thread. However, Colorado agreed. Unfortunately, 300K may be little high at the bottom of this mess. These fools may be looking at anywhere from 200-250K when all is said and done, esp. if they have any foreclosures/auctions on the same street/community. Sad, how they think they are getting a bargain.
Think about it… HALF A MILLION DOLLARS FOR A PLACE TO LIVE. Good grief. The article says it was thought to go for 400K. You just overshot by at least 100K!
As Susan Powter would have said…
“STOP THE INSANITY!”
“It was expected to fetch some $400,000. In the end Cornelius Foster and Debra Moore paid $500,000 for it; still less than the $700,000 it was originally valued at. ‘We’re very excited,’ Cornelius says. ‘It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.”
U can get a similar- sized Reo property in same condition(fixer?)just 45 minites down the 15 fwy in lake elsinore for about half the price the Moores payed. LE is a somewhat crappy area and in even worse shape than Corona but the commute to LA?OC would be only a half hr more at most. I am amazed in this age of high speed internet and instant foreclosre sales pricing at your fingertips that anyone would swallow the estimated value on that property at $700.000. Unless U are a complete computer/financial illiterate.
Corona is way overbuilt with new homes/tracts last 3-4 years, especially on the south areas off the 15 fwy, and if u do the net research and personally check out the areas U can find a large REO fixer 3-4 bed,2+ bath on big lot for under $300,000. Or just take 15 fwy north about 20 min drive to Norco and u can find a similar fixer at around $300,000. May not be the best area, maybe even a bit seedy, but i don’t think any part of Corona is hi-end anyway.
Auctions are for suckers a, Pt Barnum tent show for idiots
But it has a pool!
LE is a somewhat crappy area and in even worse shape than Corona but the commute to LA?OC would be only a half hr more at most.
All the named places are terrible and I would never live in or near any of them, but nothing screams “my time is worth nothing!” louder than locking in an extra hour per daily round trip commute for the foreseeable future, just to buy a cheaper house. The correct answer in that situation is to RENT.
What I find ridiculous is that there are SO MANY FORECLOSURE DEALS out there that all you need is a realtor to bring you around to see them..why go to a auction where you have to pay a premium, you don’t get a home inspection nor do you get to the fun part of negotiating with the bank! One of my best deals was a bank foreclosure back in 99. The bank wanted it off their books and I got it for 40% less than any other home in a great community..I had a home inspection and was able to get even more money off the asking price….I would NEVER buy a property at auction unless it was 75% off! Too risky…
500 grand and it’s a FIXER UPPER???
OhmyGod California is so screwed.
During the peak of the madness, I saw million dollar “fixer uppers” for sale. People actually bought them, overbid 100K to 150k above asking price just to get them.
There was just one listed in Palo Alto. 1.2m.
Another one in Los Altos listed at ~1.35 sold in a few weeks. another one in Los Gatos around 1.3m, sold in about a month.
so, we still have greater than 1m fixer uppers in nice communities.
“There are bargains to be had. One man says he paid $375,000 for a house valued at $616,000.”
Hmmm. I would say if the man paid $375k for it, then it’s valued at….. (drum roll, please)…. $375k! But don’t ask me. I got a B in math.
I’d give you an A in econ so it’s all good, baby, it’s all good.
Laughing Boy, you just saw right through the Emperor’s new clothes.
“There are bargains to be had. One man says he paid $375,000 for a house valued at $616,000. Lot 132 was a five-bedroom family home with a pool and three-car garage on La Salle Circle, Corona.”
He paid $275k too much…
Pretty nasty out there, ain’t it bro.
Yep, what’s funny about that, is that it’s been reported to me that you can find things in the mid to low 200’s there, Moreno Valley, and other outer reaches of Riverside County, with nice square footage and lot size, so I find the fact that some paid 375k baffling, especially if they are R.E.O.’s… which they probably are…if you let them sit a month, you can probably close escrow in the 190 to 200k range. Wait untill 09, and my 100k mark would be on the high side. People seem to forget that not long ago, houses in those area’s were selling for 150k and less… Nothing has changed in those area’s to warrant or justify those increases…700k in Corona…is there a producing oil rig in the backyard? Insanity…
“He paid $275k too much…”
Nothing in Corona is worth more than $300,000. That would be for the most hi-end area of Corona, of which there are very few, and the biggest baddest mansion in a posh gated community. Just look at the current foreclosure inventory and the several thousand spankin new homes plunked down in Corona last 3-4 yrs. With gas at close to $4.00 /gal and the economy tanking, foreclosure rates will continue to climb in Corona and the IE, and by end of 2008 banks will be unloading their Reo fixers for $200,000 in the good areas, and $100,000 in the bad areas.
“Lot 132 WAS a five-bedroom family home with a pool and three-car garage on La Salle Circle, Corona.”
From the phrasing, sounds like the looters have changed it into something other than a 5-bed w/pool on La Salle Circle, Corona.
I think Sheets was right. OPM
Buyer A pays 750k cash
Buyer B gets a 500k 1st & 250 2nd
Lending bank is encouraged to write down principal to market amount. Buyer B gets more affordable house to live in. Both A & B will get their houses marked to the market. How does buyer A get compensated?
“Buyer A” gets compensated with a black eye and a kidney punch for paying an absurdly overinflated price! Same as happened to every other sucker who has bought into irrational panic markets(Beanie Babies, tulip bulbs, etc.) Anyone with $750K in cash should have the sense to hire a competent financial advisor.
He gets a free Joshua Tree compliments of exnvmtgbkr.
And a whuppin’ with Txchick’s 20-pound trout.
A metaphor courtesy of aladinsane?
I saw some “rare” beanie babies in one of those 50 Cent claw machines in a Denny’s, last month.
.
LOL… you’ll spend $1,000 trying to “claw” it out, though.
.
No, no……if the recipient of the “treatment” has capitulated and repented, then, in an act of mercy, Tex’s frozen twenty-pounder is offered as a soothing suppository. Let the recovery begin.
You’re turning all soft and stuffin your old age.
Where’s the love, babe, where’s the love?
We need to keep him at least semi-conscious until he gets a jolt of my TASER.
Taser before JT, or in strict alternation?
Which comes first though?
Forget that, I took the trained monkey and the white elephant out of the basement last night, and I’m taking them on a trip to Carona this weekend. They’ve been pent up a might too long, and both are ready to let loose.
that. I
mite
“I’ve seen the elephant”
A California Gold Rush term, meaning someone gave up and went home…
I know the reference from hanging out with Civil War reenactors - yes I have a very geeky past
Reenactors are cool. They see dead people.
I’d have loved to have Rod Serling do a twilight zone, where the reenactors get warped back into the hell of the Civil War.
.
AWESOME idea…. *bravo*
.
“‘We haven’t hit the tip,’ said Carolyn McNamara, owner of The McNamara Group real estate company.”
Correct assumption, Carolyn. What you be feelin’ right now is the first bristles. Trust me, you’ll know the “tip”, or should I say feel it, when it arrives.
“The UCLA economists noted that, nationally, housing construction starts had fallen from 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million last January. ‘Never before have we had this kind of collapse in housing that was not accompanied by a recession,’ they wrote. ‘This time is different.’”
Our local paper, the Colorado Springs Gazelle assured us this morning that the economy is fine, unemployment numbers were revised for the better, no recession will be happening. Good to know since on my daily walks through the local neighborhood I pass several houses that have been on the market for well over a year.
“This time is different” might mean it’s going to be far worse.
Things could be different. With the heavy debt load of HELLOC’d morons, we might just make a quantum decent and leave all the old stock standing empty in perpetuity, and just get on to building new houses 100Ks less — lots are less, labor is less, materials flat to less. Though this isn’t really different. It happened to condos and commercial property in the 80s. Many buildings stood empty for years while new ones were built.
–
Looks like we got an endless supply of ‘This time is different’ dopes including among rogue economists.
Employment data for CA that I posted yesterday fully confirm recession. The CA data for the past 12 months are as bad as Feb-01-Oct’01, when the US and the CA were in recession. How can these guys ignore the UR rate having gone up 1.1%?
Jas
We have a job open here, and are getting a ton of unqualified applicants.
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If we were in include all the people who have stopped looking for a job, as Germany does, the US UR will be 8-9% and CA would be 9-10%.
Then, if you include the unqualified and those who are looking for jobs we already have 10% or so people unemployed or unemployable for jobs that they are willing to do.
Jas
S Creek,
I live in its different here Colorado Springs to. House down the street has been for sale for almost 18 months. Starting price 850000 under contract for 6 months now sale price 625000. Can someone send me a Joshua Tree or will a wild yucca do?
I have a friend who sez “it’s different here” in Larkspur. We’ll see . . .
It’s different because no one has ever heard of it?
Just go to Pueblo West to see rows upon rows of empty homes.
Another area where you can see this as well is at mile marker 119, those lots with a manufactured home (double-wide trailers) were going for $80,000 back in 2003. They have then now for the low, low price of $299,000!!!
I don’t know of that many people who were being marketed these lots that make the kind of income to support these prices.
I guess the horses have to eat too.
I live in south Corona, near the Eagle Glen golf course. Three years ago my wife and I did the rent-vs-buy math and decided to stay bitter renters. Best decision of my life. The house immediately behind mine was one of the ones that was auctioned in Ontario on Sunday. It has been vacant for over a year. The lawn is dead, the windows are broken, and the back yard became ground zero for the biggest infestation of black widows I have seen since I was a little kid.
From what I have seen and heard from talking with my neighbors and co-workers, the quality of the construction of houses in the newer parts of Corona is very poor. The notion that houses purchased in 2000 for ~$250K are now worth $600, $500K, or even $400K is a pipe dream.
Corona and the rest of the “Inland Empire” are looking at reversion to the long term average appreciation rate, with a vengance. I think we are looking at another 30% drop vs. present prices (approximately 50% from the summer 2005 peak) before things settle into a long and boring period of 2-3% per year appreciation.
My neighbors still think I’m nuts for renting. Even the ones that have seen comps wither by $150K - $200K in the past 20 months. Some of them would be buying houses like they were three years ago if they had any equity left in thier primary residence.
“I think we are looking at another 30% drop vs. present prices (approximately 50% from the summer 2005 peak) before things settle into a long and boring period of 2-3% per year appreciation.”
And I think this song will be sung in many parts of the country. You’ve just predicted Florida as well.
I think I will open a scuba shop in Florida…for all those under-da-water!!!
I know a couple that bought in Irvine in the 90s, waited 10 years to BREAK EVEN and moved to corona. Now they are below purchase price, but they did a downsize so they are not in trouble. Just fooled twice.
–
Getting fooled once is human, twice or more is divine.
Jas
So that makes the Californians and the New Yorkers super divine, eh?
Crackin’!
When in the 90s did they buy? I bought my condo in 1993 for a little over $100k. In 1997 it was appraised at $90k, and comps today are selling for about $350k — well off the high of 2005, thank God, but I don’t see how anyone who bought in Irvine in the 90s could require 10 years to “break even” unless they were using their home like an ATM machine.
Nah. Nobody would do THAT….
Once you consider inflation and the higher carrying costs versus rent, I bet they didn’t come anywhere NEAR breaking even.
My coworker has been trying to sell me on Corona for years. I rent about 10 minutes from work and he commutes an hour and a half so he could get an “affordable house”. He keeps coming to me telling me what great deals there are out there now and how the house next to him is up for auction. He eventually broke down and said a lot of investors are coming in to buy foreclosures just to rent them out. The whole town is falling apart according to him, I almost felt bad for the guy.
Corona was/is a ghastly place, where my parents threatened to move to, if I misbehaved, when I was a lad.
Egads man/woman, your parents were surely evil…
They knew how to torture, with mere words.
I would feel bad for these type of people, but they just don’t want to see reality for what it is. They also would’ve bragged about their genius if things worked out better. Oh well, next time, if there is one, do a better job of due diligence.
What was it Barnum said…?
“The whole town is falling apart according to him, I almost felt bad for the guy”
Sounds like lake elsinore to a tee. I was there in oct 07 and did a bike tour around the lake. The investor-buyers started renting out to Hispanic immigrants and now the entire community of LE is about 40-50 % immigrant and there is real SCentral LA- type poverty in the LE basin.
LE is an IE disaster pocket and fast becoming the third-world impoverished sinkhole of SW Riverside county.
LE has always been a dump since the drought-ish seasons and the lake drying up. It was a good idea in the 60s but since then, when I was a kid, it always seems desolate. Sort of like now.
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“My coworker has been trying to sell me on Corona for years.”
You should try to sell her, or him, on Dos Aquis or Tecate.
Jas
I think it’s Dos Equis or something like that “2 x’s”. Damn, now I really want a beer.
Please. Bohemia or Negro Modelo.
Comment by Matt White
2008-03-12 15:19:53
” I live in south Corona, near the Eagle Glen golf course. Three years ago my wife and I did the rent-vs-buy math and decided to stay bitter renters. Best decision of my life. The house immediately behind mine was one of the ones that was auctioned in Ontario on Sunday .. . ”
ok so Matt as I was peeping into yer backyard via Zillow BirdsEye 360 view from the reference you gave, I want to know something;
how much you asking for that tarp covered 60’s Firebird? at least it looks like a muscle car. will you throw in the trampoline also for the right price?? And for pete’s sake, man, water yer lawn !
The bankers in Bel-Air need the chumps in Corona to continue buying overpriced junk. How else would they continue to pay their $4 million mortgages? Tell your neighbors they are doing a tremendous social service for which they will be repaid an impoverished retirement.
Oh, brother. This post has it all. People overpaying for fixer-uppers. A candle store in a slump. (Who in the heck needs to buy so many candles that they need to go to a candle store?) And this gem:
“Cindy Robinson, another resident of La Salle Circle, predicts more problems: ‘You get graffiti,’ she says. ‘And then white collar crime.’”
Umm, Cindy, you put the cause cart before the effect horse. It was the white collar crime (like mortgage fraud) that leads to the abandoned properties that attract the graffiti.
Another candle store up in flames. Geez, what a surprise. I’m still waiting for the companies that sell spinners for Escalades to go out of business.
Speaking of SUV gas guzzlers–if you haven’t noticed, one of my obsessions–I did the math last night based on $3.62 gallon gas at the neighborhood Shell station. If you get 13 mpg, and commute to San Diego (50 miles roundtrip), that is about $14.50 per day, $72 week, $288/month for the privilege of driving a shiny bloat mobile. The bigger the SUV, the smaller the [ ].
Ummm, lemme guess. The smaller the amount of discretionary funds available?
NO, it has something to do with the size of the shoe, I think or size of gloves…lol
conversion kit
http://www.curtrich.com/Vietnamese_SUV.jpg
My husband drives a Prius.
A bay aryan prius can supposedly get an extra 5 miles per gallon, if you have a minimum of 6 bumper stickers leaning hard to the left side.
Whenever I see a Prius, I say, “The Car of Virtue.”
Hi Aladinsane:
Are you saying that Bay Aryans are more likely to have crooked Priuses?
Bay aryans are just as silly as over the top evangs, from what i’ve seen of the breed.
I just like the sound the Prius makes as it goes past
“Vroom, vroom I’m gay vroom I’m gay vroom vroom”
You know what they say about the size of a man’s truck …
Did I mention my husband drives a pair of roller skates?
Both my children have Priuses and neither of them are gay. Because a Prius gets you a free pass to use the HOV lanes in LA, saving you 100s of hours on the freeways.
What happened to the sense of humor on this blog?
California must be in a depression. “We’ll use our Prius to take the recession bypass,” they said gaily.
My husband, who is a hefty 6′2″ drives a Prius, loves it, 100,000 miles already and gosh, the battery hasn’t blown out like all the Luddites whine about. I’m sick of all the Prius cliches. It’s a car, people, it gets about 44 mpg (2000 model) and it actually can hit 100 Mph. He bought it used for $13,000 for all the naysayers who go on about how the cost isn’t worth the savings. He used to drive a Montero but realized with his commute it was stupid. So there, you sand kickers out there.
Wife has a prius and I have a civic hybrid.
When gas is 5,6,7 .. $10 bucks a gallon we’ll see how you feel about them. As the dollar collapses saving energy becomes more and more valuable. Plus there is nothing I hate more than giving my $ to Exxon, Saudi Arabia, Iran ect ect.
I have 110,000 on my civic hybrid, and I’ve done nothing but replace oil and filters. Brakes are in perfect shape and should make 200,000 miles easy. Average mgp is close to 50mpg.
Even better than the prius is the electric scooter I drive. Pile my hockey bag and sticks on the back. Usually good for a few laughs as I drive by, but I really don’t care about image. They used to laugh at me when I sold my house and started renting . They’d say Get a real house. Did you make some bad investments?? I’d never rent. Housing only goes up.
Not laughing anymore are they.
The TATA gets 75 mpg and is enclosed.
see: The Telegraph 30/06/2007
Who are you kidding?
“…It found that the energy the Prius expended cost an average of $3.25 (£1.63) per mile over an expected lifetime of 100,000 miles…”
About $1.35 more than a Hummer.
The economic advantage of a Prius are bogus. We all pay for the ecological destruction. And as the price of the base metals increase any possible advantage rapidly decreases.
But you appear not to be able nor capable of believing any research that contradicts what you already believe. Suffice it to say that China is subsidizing the cost to keep their factories open. The US government subsidizes the technology. The state of California subsidizes the drivers of this type of vehicle. You complain about farm subsidies, the Prius and ilk subsidies make the farm subsidy look like pikers.
Coworkers love the civic hybrids. If you read this, what is your take comparing the two hybrids? So far, the customer satisfaction favors the civic (it seems to be sportier). Note: I have driven neither.
Gasoline… is killing J6P. I doubt F150/Silverado/Suburban or any big optional truck sales will move in 2008.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Hoz, I recently learned about the negative material costs of the Prius (gleefully shared by my gas guzzler BIL), which to be sure is a huge disappointment, though I can’t imagine why the next generation of hybrids wouldn’t attempt to address this problem. Without a critical mass of people willing to purchase hybrids, newer/better technology cannot be developed. The alternative is the same old combustion engine of the past 150 years, give or take a couple performance tweaks.
Hi Neil:
Don’t know if you were talking to me, but we both like our Prii. Mine is an early 2002 model; his is a 2008. This reminds me that I need to take mine in for service (almost 83,000 miles). The brakes are starting to squeak when they’re cold, and the driver’s-side window is starting to get bumpy when I roll it down. Also, you can’t really use the crappy Bridgestone tires that came with the old Prii, so I have to use Goodyears and overinflate them. The new Prii, however, come with better tires. I drive like a maniac and average 42 mpg. He drives like a grandma and gets like 50.
Thanks Big V.
For some reason my friends who “drive like maniacs” are all getting the Civic Hybrid (if they buy a hybrid). Perception? Performance? I’m curious. Partially as I’ll look into one in a few years when my current car wears out.
Ghad was gasoline pricey today. Costco was insane. Ok, it save 15 cents a gallon… but the lines were weird. The girl in front of me had her credit card and ATM card rejected… oops. It had a far different ‘mood’ than any other time.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I’m sorry I do not mean to disparage the Prius or any vehicle. I drive a Buick LeSabre 2006. The closest dealer to me is a Buick dealer. If the closest dealer was a BMW dealer I would drive a BMW. I have no preference in any car. It is just a means of getting around. My Ford dealer closed, so when my 91 escort dies it will join the other hulks in the field.
I have John Deere equipment, the closest dealer is John Deere. If Harvestor was closer I would have Harvestor equipment.
Now a lot of my John Deere equipment is made in China. The Kubota which is an excellent piece of equipment is made in either N or S Carolina. go figure.
HOZ you have to be kidding. Hummer lifetime gas use less than a prius??? It fails the obvious as hell test. I have a home in California I’d like to sell you.
1. They assumed - Prius driven 9200 mi/ yr, and to have a service life
Not sure what happened but my last note cut short
bottom line that study is a pos.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2007/06/04/EDGI7Q63U01.DTL
Assumed prius lifetime use 100k mi, while hummers would magically last 300,000mi ???. They also assumed that there was a huge energy cost in desiging and building the prius which is complete crap. Early on when they were selling small #’s the energy costs of designing and building were high per car sold. Now they are selling in much larger #’s, and cost per car sold is small. Can’t say the same about the Hummer. Sales are falling off a cliff.
As for how long a prius will last
This cabby took his first one over 200,000 miles then toyota gave him a new one so they could study his old car which was still running. He notes savings of over 1000 bucks a month on fuel and repair costs.
http://www.grist.org/news/maindish/2005/08/02/sainsbury-cab/
My prior post and others have been killed.
Bottom line
Study is crap
Assumed Prius would only last 100,000 mi while Hummer would last 300,000mile. Also assumed a large percentage of lifecycle gas use was in developement. Pure crap, when prius was new and they only sold a few the cost of development per car was high, now that they are in large #’s this cost is much lower. Meanwhile Hummer sales are crashing.
As far as durability, Many examples of the prius lasting over 200,000 miles. First one was a cab driver in Canada. He now reports saving over a 1000 bucks a month on gas and maintenance w prius over crown vic. ie after 2 years car paid for itself. He put 200,000 miles on it in that time.
From an article from Gist.org
Andrew Grant — a one-time car salesman who, when he’s not driving, is studying to be an executive business coach — is on his third Prius now. (Toyota, seizing a chance to evaluate the car’s durability, took his original back after he’d driven it 200,000 miles in 25 months and exchanged it with a 2003 model, fully outfitted for fares.) Compared to conventional taxis, his current 2004 Prius saves between $900 and $1,100 per month in fuel costs alone, and his repair bills — thanks to automotive innovations such as regenerative braking, which reduces wear and tear on the brake pads — have been cut by more than half.
Why do you need to buy a fancy Prius, we bought a 1993 Honda Del Sol Si for $2700, still gets 33+ MPG on the freeway and has an air bag, old Honda’s last forever and the paint is still nice a shiney, lime green and actually pretty sporty because of the VTEC engine.
The “Prius uses more lifetime energy than a Hummer” study is based on a Prius lasting 11 years/109K miles versus a Hummer lasting 35 years/379K miles. Uhh… did they mix up which companies actually produce reliable cars that can rack up the miles?
I’m guessing that’s the only way they could get the numbers to work out to make their point.
Regarding the sportiness/driving pleasure.. Toyota makes excellent driving appliances. The Prius falls into this category. I drove a friend’s. It’s completely innocuous, but in terms of driving pleasure it’s a zero. At least not negative like a Cavalier or a pickup truck. And it’s extremely roomy. I’m 6′2″ and found the front seat far roomier than an Escalade!
I have not driving the Civic hybrid, but I would guess that it’s better due to the Civic being reasonably good.
For good mpg + fun, check out the Mini.
Finally, be careful about overinflating the tires. Better mpg due to less rolling resistance. Rolling resistance comes from friction. Friction against the road is what gives ability to stop and steer. In fact, the prius with stock tires had the longest stopping distance of any car recently tested by Road and Track. Personally I’d give up a couple mpg to be able to stop when someone pulls out in front of me.
Besides MPG, you also need to factor in the emissions. So, a 1993 Honda, despite good mileage, isn’t equivalent to a Prius in terms of spewing polluton. Again, we bought a Prius because it made economic sense, not because we’re goody two shoes. Wonder why folks get so defensive…. must be the trickle down from the auto establishment which would prefer people to ignore reality and continue driving their high profit margin gaz guzzlers.
Was giving a job job to a roofer today who complained he was going to have to start cutting back on things. Mentioned trading in his diesel truck. And this is not a fly by night type of contractor.
What’s a job job?
LOL
As opposed to a blow blow.
In Indonesian, that would be more than one job.
Diesel trucks: 30c a mile just in gas. Then, depreciation of $25/working day, more or less. Not to mention ITI. You can do roofing fine in a van or small pickup truck - just takes a little creativity with packing the ladders. Save 10K a year.
You don’t even need that, my neighbor owns a roofing company. Shingles are delivered, old roofing goes in a bin and is taken away. Roofers arive in a car, with a trailer.
Contractors around here who don’t need to show off their masculinity use old minivans. They actually have a higher weight capacity than most 4×4s, excluding the gargantuan Suburbans or Excursions.
Not Prius like mileage, but 20 mpg for something that can carry more than 1000 lbs is ok.
Not to worry that 600 dollar tax rebate is in the mail. Oops I guess you also have to factor in food, clothing and just about everything else. Could get tight.
Hey, if you drive an Escalade, does that make you an Escalader?
Yes, these California posts at the end of the day are a literal gold mine of priceless bubble busting nuggets. Every day I think there’s no way the one from the day before can be topped, but it is. An endless stream of morons who are going to us all down with them.
These California threads should probably be put in the Smithsonian as a relic of an unbelievable time in America.
People cutting back on decoration candles. Imagine that. When I look around, all I see are these businesses that are of marginal usefulness.
You are so right-on with the comment about white collar crime coming first, then the grafitti. This bubble was a crime operation, from the beginning, executed to perfection.
Nothing can hold a candle to the foolishness of business ventures, we’ve read on here.
Heck, any dotcom stock circa 1999, seems like a winner in comparison.
(my anvil.com stock might be good again, someday.)
The candle shops are going out of business, but the hem store are going strong. Probably a boom for thier business and the prescription mills.
Couldn’t agree more BubbleViewer and I have lived here for 22 years out of 40. Every day I get mad, sad, glad, fill in the feeling at Ben and these articles. It is simply amazing the foolishness/idiocy/complete lack of sense, feelings of entitlement/you name it, we got here it CA. And every day Ben tops the previous day.
It is as one bard put it…, “this state has had gold rush fever ever since Sutter’s Mill.” People have always thought CA is the get-rich capital of the universe.
You think Ca is bad? How about New York where a politician just paid $4300 for a few grunts with a sperm removal technician. Things are inflating, not deflating, when the hourly “billing and cooing” rate of a GS44 hooker is this high.
What is a GS44 hooker?
a GS44 hooker is the designation that will be the top of the government pay scale when the commercial sperm removal industry is nationalized. All fed employees now have a GS number.
Oh. Haha.
Just saw the movie JUNO and the term for S is junk, a guys junk. Lots of fun terms in this script/movie.
So, Sp rem technician..hmmm.
“These California threads should probably be put in the Smithsonian as a relic of an unbelievable time in America.”
We had the same feeling when we were at an extremely lavish spa in Santa Barbara a couple of weeks ago (comped!): that one day, anthropologists will excavate this place and say, “This is how people lived before the fall of the American Empire.” Had the same feeling reading this restaurant review in the NY Times this week:
http://tinyurl.com/2nrwhz
–
“Yes, these California posts at the end of the day are a literal gold mine of priceless bubble busting nuggets.”
Many Californicators still have the gold rush mentality. Of those who came here during the gold rush some made fortunes (Huntington, Stanford, Crocker, Hopkins, etc.) and most lived in miserable conditions. The same would be true of the two most recent rushes for the riches — the tech Scams and housing.
Jas
Now that you mention Huntington, it is amazing how many rarities from Europe he was able to get over here with his California train gold. I think there’s an analogy with the present debacle, but the money will be made off of people leaving California, not coming to it.
There’s around 35-40 million people in CA. The newspapers pick out the most unusual of them. This blog picks out the most unusual of that set. In a set of 35 million people, there’s 35 people that are literally one-in-a-million. My point is that not everybody in California is doing the wacky stuff highlighted here. But when you look at the wackiest of the wacky, well, it’s wack.
Meanwhile, two professors from USC added to the real estate gloom by predicting that because of demographics, the slowdown could last two more decades. Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography, said as the baby-boomers age, they will become home-sellers rather than buyers.”
Another HBB prediction, made a couple years ago. Boomers will become net sellers, over the next couple decades.
Here’s another prediction. By the spring of 08, the supply of gullible knife catchers will be exhausted and this summer turns into a blood bath. Many of the buyers, of the last year who thought they were getting such great deals, will become additional foreclosures by 2009-2010.
We had been looking at boomer projections since 02. It’s nice to see it laid out so plainly without miles of charts and sampling. The next understated migration pattern is hispanic origin family outmigration from gateway communities.
Harry Dent (”The Roaring 2000s”) formulated my opinion back at the turn of this century that boomers will be net sellers of real estate. That there has been a speculative bubble and massive mortgage fraud makes the effect of downsizing more significant than Dent predicted.
Think of boomers as a deer swallowed by a long python. The blob has long passed the belly of the snake and is near the end. First the housing bubble crisis. Immediately during this bust will be the health care crisis as lots of fat or smoking boomers who could have prevented a lot of health problems come knocking on the taxpayers’ door and ask for funds to pay for their operations.
But the Uncle Sam’s pockets will be empty before the tail end of the boomers can knock on your door for money. I’m at the tail end. I accepted my own responsibility for my acts anyway. I saved.
I’m also at the arse end of the Boomers. And don’t get me started about what my older counterparts did/didn’t do during The Sixties. Just don’t.
I was just a lad of 5 during the Summer of Love and dreamt about getting a Schwinn Sting-Ray, while Woodstock was happening…
” Cusp boomers “
Alad, I had my Stringray style bike, although it was not a Schwinn. My parents were depression era parents, so they got me a less expensive generic. It had the banana seat and all. It was great!
I was a bit older - 16 in 1968 and living in CA. It was paradise - did it all and had a blast. Not one single regret except watching everything get more and more conservative and less and less fun as the years went on. I think the hardest part for the mid and younger boomers is the switch that took place so late in the game. We had bulk of working years with expectation of pensions, reasonable college for kids and retiree medical care. All switched out to ownership society and every man for himself pretty late to catch up.
no. the worst part was that you older ones brought forth herpes and AIDS. Spoiled it for us younger ones who wanted to enjoy the sexual revolution. Now most of the older ones are prude conservatives who are “shocked…shocked!” at what today’s young college women wear to campuses. I recall in the late 70s the halter tops the busty young women wore. I hate hypocrites.
People had a sense of style and originality in the 60s and 70s, and they were thin. There’s a big difference between dressing in a sexually provocative way and dressing like you’re going to a flea market, with 30 pounds of flab hanging out of your stomach. There’s no comparison between then and now - look at the music, the political sophistication, the body fat content. Personally, I’m shocked at how atrocious young people look today, not at how sexy they try to be.
Bill - if you wanted to enjoy the revolution why do you begrudge those that did? Revolution was still going strong way into the 80s and even after that, as I recall, all it required was a condom. Wearing provocative clothes and living the revolution are totally different. I just miss the live and let live attitude.
I remember seeing my 1st hippies in 1967, and they were of the suburban variety and looked the part, and their bit of civil disobedience was collecting all the for sale real estate signs from around the neighborhood and planting them all on one lawn.
They were a little frightening, as all adults are to a child, only more so.
“People had a sense of style and originality in the 60s and 70s”
Yes, who could forget the contribution to haute couture made by striped bell bottoms and leisure suits. I had a pair of the former, but no narcotic known to man could ever have induced me to buy the latter.
It’s been shown that smokers actually have a lower cost to society than non-smokers, the extra health costs are cancelled out by the savings on retirement pensions.
Sooner or later longer life expectancies were always going to translate into longer working lives - Bismark introduced the state pension in Germany in 1889, it kicked in at 70, average life expectancy then was 45.
Someday, September will be over.
Well, like DUH!!!
Tell us something original, Señor Sherlock Kimosabe!
Phillip Morris did a study of this for the Czech government back in 1999.
Hispanic origin family outmigration’s already happening here in AZ. Has a lot to do with that tough new employer sanctions law, which went into effect on January 1st.
It’s an unnecessary law, as the downturn in job opportunities is doing a fine job, sending them back down under.
Good law and necessary…what you indicate…is going to happen. However, IMO having that law on the books and actively enforcing it as they appear willing to do will solve a lot of problems with illegals.
Opportunities are better for Hispanics in South America than in the US at this time. When the market returns to the US so will the Hispanics. It may be very difficult to get farm workers this year. Expect a lot higher food bill.
Opportunities may be better, but Mexicans (the majority of Hispanics in the U.S.) are much more at home in the U.S. than in any country in South America. It’s a lot easier for a Mexican to live and work in the U.S. than in Brazil or Argentina, or even Colombia, for that matter.
In fact, many S.Am citizens move north through C.Am and Mexico then onto the US.
Loss of entry level jobs and cost of living is doing the rest. Say what you will about them, but they sure look smarter then the overeducated WASPs I’m surrounded by who are just sure things will rebound next month, next year, etc.
Hi Jane:
I tried to look at your blog, but it’s gone.
“…Carrino isn’t going out of business, but this year, holiday sales at Candle Connection were down about 35 percent from 2006. The drop has forced Carrino to take a close look at her budget and figure out how she’s going to make it to Christmas 2008.”
Does everybody in California go into candle making? We may be stupid in the Midwest, but we don’t try to make a living on ‘wants’ (with the possible exceptions of Illinois residents that come up here and buy broken orange crates as antiques.)
Hey there Hoz how ya doin,
What did you think of the market action today? Seems it took 24hrs for people to work out the FED’s 200B was aimed at the PB’s who were short treasuries and of course Fannie and Freddie. Bond action was good to watch.
Risky game BB is playing.
Doing fine my friend. If you were short US treasuries you did great! It was the ones that were long US Ts that got it shoved up their rectum. It is still a little early to tell what the impact will be in the markets. I hope for all of our sakes in the US that Mr. Bernanke’s gamble works. It is not designed to save any home owners, it is a hope to save a US financial collapse. At least he is trying something that he wrote about in 2004 and his writing was peer reviewed and critiqued.
Seems to me like he’s trying to avoid bank failures. Do you think we really have a full-fledged collapse on the horizon, or does it feel more like a recession to you? Collapse seems a bit extreme. To me, “collapse” sounds like something you can’t recover from.
“Things are going to get a lot worse before they are going to get worse.”
Lily Tomlin
To date the world has thrown over $1T into the fishbowl with out slowing down the deleveraging. Risk analysis is great when applied in advance, but in this case the markets are frozen. Municipals are yielding 2% over Treasuries. Normally, that would be as close to free money an investor can get. There is no money in the system.
http://www.candlemanvalencia.com/
I usually eat lunch in the center this guy is in, I have yet to see a customer in his store.
Are you telling me that this candle store is owned by a MAN? Hahahahahahahah. Hahaha. Ha-ha.
FYI, there was a great migration of midwesterners to California immediately after WWII. Many of the GIs took their basic training here and packed up their families to head West. This candle making phenomena is a by product of that midwest affinity for “pritz” as my midwest Grandma called knick-knacks.
Is there any wonder oh so many of us, have garage fulls of junk and rent-a-garages, for the overage?
It’s a freakin’ candle. Didn’t we evolve past that?
Never understood the whole candle thing. Does it help people get laid?
Try liquor - it’s quicker!
We call them tsotskis. Candles are nice, but you can get them really cheap at Target or Ikea - what is with people paying $20 for a candle?
“We may be stupid in the Midwest, but we don’t try to make a living on ‘wants’ ”
Really? what does GM make again? It’s far beyond basic transportation.
The fact is, most people make their living on ‘wants’. High-tech: do we really need computers and cell phones? entertainment. Restaurants. Travel. Insurance. Nothing wrong with that. It’s good that the standard of living in the US is well above a daily struggle for a few grams of food and drops of water.
“‘This is economic Darwinism,’ Dan Ansell, chairman of Greenberg Traurig LLP’s real estate operations division, told the AP. ‘Those retailers and businesses that have a product that is desired by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’”
__________________________________________
He may have to come up with another term besides “economic darwinism” for those who don’t believe in evolution. Something from the Book of Job with all that suffering and “why me?” proclamations should suffice.
Unintelligent Design?
How about sowing the wind and reaping the whirlwind? That oughtta suffice.
Darwinism works in the reverse for humans today. Unlike any other species, it’s the ignorant and lazy that do the majority of the breeding. Perhaps that’s why we are in this mess.
Please no comments about me saying that all ppl with kids are ignorant and lazy. That is not what I said.
Seem to recall a movie being made about this. It’s called “Idiocracy.” And didn’t someone here link to the trailer?
i just happened to catch that film..idiocracy..just recently, there were some pretty funny parts, kind of on the line of office space…funny you mentioned it……lumps
How about “can of economic whoop ass”?
Job’s wife said “curse God and die.”
Who knows, we might have fewer FB’s if they tried it.
Believe me, the city fathers in Ontario don’t like the idea of their $70 + million convention centre (British spelling) being called “featureless!”
Heck, featureless is a compliment. Have you ever been inside? I have seen men’s restrooms with more pizazz than that convention center. In fact, I would bet that there are better looking prisons than that thing from the abyss.
“Meanwhile, two professors from USC added to the real estate gloom by predicting that because of demographics, the slowdown could last two more decades. Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography, said as the baby-boomers age, they will become home-sellers rather than buyers.”
USC making up for UCLA. Two decades!
This has been predicted by scores of researchers. But I have to applaud the aristry of USC slamming UCLA forecasts in print. Brings a joyful tear to my eye >; )
Just had a V8 moment. I forgot to mention in the earlier post that World Peak oil + boomer downsizing will turn rural areas and “vacation resorts” into dust towns. Urban centers will hold out best in the housing downturn the next 20 years.
I don’t know about that. Rural areas is where you grow wheat and drill for oil, not to mention escape from crime.
no way to escape from crime if there is not any gas to fuel the police cars to drive the 50 miles to your house.
Huh?? The police cars don’t need to drive the 50 miles to your house if the criminals can’t afford the gas to drive the 50 miles to your house. My dogs started barking insanely the other night and I wasn’t worried for a second about bad guys. Why? Because it was 12 degrees outside and all the bad guys were at home, trying to get warm.
You don’t respond to my main points, but attack my aside. But your point is absurd, anyway. First, the purpose of police isn’t to stop crime, it’s to apprehend criminals. The citizenry stops most crime by using common sense, and criminals don’t congregate in places where there is not an adequate supply of good crime potential.
Per capita crime is orders of degree higher in urban areas than rural environments.
Ok then…Takes EMT people a long time to get across those 50 miles to your place if you have a stroke too.
Why don’t you respond to the oil and wheat argument and quit digressing?
Neither oil nor wheat requires very many people any more.
Sorry, Rural areas “are”
How are the urban centers going to feed themselves if the rural areas turn into dust towns? I would rather be here, in a coastal town that was founded in the 1600s and has survived all these years, than in any urban area, in the event of a major crash. I know that here, if I have to, I can grow, gather, catch, dig, and kill my own food; chop wood for fuel; and, with very little work, be completely off the grid.
My parents had container gardens. Grew strawberries, squash, peppers, and such in the back yard. Garden space was mostly “up”, rather than over a flat area. Many condos have enough private yard space to grow food. Just have to have the sun exposure and the water for it. My folks’ home was within a quarter mile of the bus lines. I usually biked to college, but sometimes took the bus back in the late 70s/early 80s. I prided myself in not having a car back in those college days. I even was doing e-mail and remote computer programming in the early 1980s (between my Apple II and the California State University’s mainframe). Most of you who were alive back then did not know about those things. I guess you could understand that I felt as though the world was wide open for me back in 1982.
I love container gardening. When I lived in NYC, I had a giant container garden on my roof. Scavenged the containers from off the street and hauled the dirt up 5 flights on my back. Grew tomatoes, squash, strawberries, herbs and flowers. It was wonderful. But this was made possible by the fact that NYC provided free water, which I used lavishly. In the summer, I often watered for 2 hours a day! I can’t imagine that most people will be able to garden like this in urban areas if things start to deteriorate, as many on this blog have been predicting. Though if you can possibly do it, nothing is more rewarding than growing your own food.
bicoastal, yes, you can grow, gather, catch, etc as long as you are young enough not to have arthritis or some other debilitating illness. Good to go for 20 years. After that? You will need ambulances, doctors, police (since you no longer have the strength or steady aim to use a gun). Urban is better.
“Most of you who were alive back then did not know about those things.”
Come on now, Bill. I’ve got a few years on you and I was taking computer programming courses (Fortran) in the early 1970s at U. Va., and, yes, we had a mainframe computer. Even though it wasn’t my field, I could program computers a little, and got pretty good at programming those behemoth programmable calculators. My dad was a numerical controls engineer at GE - basically using punch card computer technology to design machine tools. Technology wasn’t invented yesterday.
The whole world is still wide open - the world is anything you want it to be. The idea that oil at $200 or $300 a barrel is going to ruin everybody’s life is silly. Don’t be such a fuddy-duddy.
“’ve got a few years on you and I was taking computer programming courses (Fortran) in the early 1970s”
Anyone in the science field (math, chem, physic) back in the late 60’s had to write their own research programs in Fortran and Cobalt. Real computers back then, not glorified word processors.
Our greenhouse will be completed, in just a week or so…
Now we get to test out our thumbs, and see how green they really are.
COBOL, not Cobalt.
Salinasron, sorry not to nitpick, but it’s COBOL.
Hey my 2 x dual core AMD64 is NOT a glorified word processor! Solaris Experss for x64 CPUS, all with Haskell, CLisp, ML, Sun Studio12 C, Perl and Python development!
Would not subject ‘gandalf’ to something as mundane as word processing!
I 100% agree Bill……
Realizing we have discussed this issue, I really question whether it will be as huge a problem as presented. In simplistic fashion, why sell a house with a cost base of 125K to move into another area and get stuck with higher taxes. Obviously for the individuals looking to retire on house appreciation - these are effed. I have not seen any papers that have put these hypotheses into math that can be replicated. A lot of conjecture with some strong bias but sampling based on interviews. not enough information. IMO
Yeah Hoz, I kind of agree with you. Why should boomers downsize if they can’t make a profit off it? My mom would be perfectly conent to stay in her large house for the rest of her life. She just fills up all the space with junk; makes her happy.
My experience with elderly family members has been that the longer they stay in their homes, the longer they live and the happier they are.
The reasons for oldsters to move are one level homes, less area to clean and maintain, less yard to maintain, closer to major medical, transportation, cheap entertainment, & shopping. If you consider most will have to work to older and won’t have all day to putter around their homes.
Just spoke with coworker who because another coworker has spent over 150k in cancer healthmed , she and others have all decided to work till 65 instead of retiring at 62 this year.Just because of how when we retire the health ins goes down to only 300k total. So for one measly major health issue, half of the total health ins is GONE, pfffft. I see lots of folks working much longer than originally planned.
If we had decent health universal coverage, this wouldn’t be an issue.
I can’t wait to sell and move, I have Banging music to the right of me and Banging music behind me just BOOM BOOM BOOM BOOM and I’ll bet when the house across the street is finished the new renters will be Blasting the music too. I have a theory, the loader the music the lower the IQ.
sorry louder…..my bad
Rich: I feel your pain. I’ve had that problem too. You can sue the landlords who allow their tenants to act that way. Just in case your sale doesn’t go through soon.
Hi Rich:
That sounds awful. You know, you can sue the landlords who allow their tenants to act that way. I think that’s what Ozzi Ozbourne did to his loud neighbor. Ironic, huh?
“Banks are dumping foreclosed homes on the market in Daly City and San Bruno, just to get them off the books.”
If I were looking to buy bank stocks (which I’m not) these are the guys I’d take a good look at. They are smart enough to sell into a market full of knifecatchers, smart enough to take their losses and get the pain behind them.
The hits to their balance sheets these sales will cause might be enough to shake out weak stockholders thus offering an excellent buying opportunity to those who know their way around in this area.
“Meanwhile, two professors from USC added to the real estate gloom by predicting that because of demographics, the slowdown could last two more decades. Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography, said as the baby-boomers age, they will become home-sellers rather than buyers.”
I know a dozen women that decided to have kids in their late 30’s-early 40’s, and it looks to me that this trend will manifest itself in toto, when the kids reach adulthood and mom and dad are broke, and need the kids to care for their health and economic well-being.
It promises to be quite the mess, as generations XYZ already hold older people in contempt, currently.
This is exactly as my parents did, and now my dad has just remortgaged into an I/O (to reduce his monthly outlay) and lives in the boonies, and my mom keeps taking loans out to redo the bathroom and such, much to my chagrin. The value of my dad’s house has doubled to $650K according to his realtor, but when I told him to sell, he refused to listen to any of my pleas. (It’s different here!)
They both live on Vancouver Island, where the bubble is now where the US was at the peak of 2005 (inventory has just started to swell in the last couple of months.)
PS my point was that they had kids late (35) and that both SHOULD be retired by now, if they were smarter with their $$$. The pressure is on us kids.
“One local resident is Jeanette Lovell, a British expat. She and her husband are not in mortgage difficulties, yet she was still worried about her own home’s value. ‘We may have to relocate for my husband’s job,’ Ms Lovell says. ‘And I know that our house has lost $150,000 in value in 18 months - if we can sell it at all.’”
_____________________________________________
Go smoke a packet of fags, cook up some bangers and bollocks, and tell your wanker of a husband not to get his knackers out of whack.
uh, it’s bangers and mash you useless git !
*English Parents
Shut your gob before my goolies are tickling your fanny.
Mo Money,
Sorry to offend your sensibilities, but I’m going to london in a couple of months and was trying to acquaint myself with the intricacies of british slang. Do you have any other phrases of which to take the piss of londoners? I need some to say at the most inopportune times…
do you know what bollocks are?
they are right under the banger. it is why the bangers are full of juices.
I’ve still got a pair of plimsoles, somewhere.
prairie oysters
fried with Worcestershire sauce. Tasty
If you get into a car wreck in New Zealand, you take your car to the panel beaters, to get it fixed.
Welcome back Private Aladin Sane
It gives a whole new meaning to getting rear ended in a wreck.
Hoz,
It’s good to be back, even if i’m not really back yet.
In the US, at airports when you need passenger luggage loaded you hire throwers.
‘A lot of those people shouldn’t have been first-time buyers.’
And guess what? If you can’t get first time buyers, the market completely seizes up!
REO and foreclosures aren’t the problem, they are the SYMPTON. Most (99%) first time buyers could not reasonably afford homes. And if they couldn’t, then the rest of the market could not and should not have risen as far as it did.
“SYMPTON”
I don’t get the pun.
“Cindy Robinson, another resident of La Salle Circle, predicts more problems: ‘You get graffiti,’ she says. ‘And then white collar crime.’”
That’s an interesting progression in crime: first the gangs come, then the lawyers. Chilling.
The average price per square foot ranged from $96 in Adelanto to $167 in Spring Valley Lake.”
I’m not greedy, I’d buy at “only” $200-$250 per foot in Thousand Oaks, CA. People are still paying $325-$350 per foot here [down from $400]…..only the “beater” homes are listed at $300 per foot (sometimes less).
Just a little 98.5% drop in new jobs, last year…
When you see numbers like this, it’s akin to a 400 car wreck on a freeway, on it’s way to being a 1,000 car demolition derby.
“Husing added he had ‘no doubt the Inland Empire will be in a recession in 2008. Last year, there were just 596 jobs added to the work force. The year before 44,200 were added. This year, the number will be probably negative. I’ve studied this economy for 44 years and the number has never been negative.’”
“As foreclosures continue rising around the county — they were up threefold in January — home prices continue to be dragged down dramatically in blue-collar areas such as Daly City, San Bruno and South San Francisco.”
“In Daly City, the median price of a home in February was $577,450, down more than $150,000 from $743,000 in February 2007. The median price in South San Francisco was $608,500 in February, down from $766,250 in February 2007.”
Huh? How do you define “blue collar”?
‘Blue collar’ housing is 577k down from 743k? ummmm that word doesn’t mean what you think it means.
See, “blue collar” communities is what the 2 salary comp programmer couples were buying in during the ‘OMG, just buy anything! Get on the ladder or you’re screwed forever!” stage. Also, they were the ‘local’ investment homes for people who disdained a 400k condo in Florida. Why do that when you could buy a 500k crapshack in East Menlo Park?
It means you’re getting choked.
Yah - welcome to the Bay Area where insanity reins. The pricier parts of the Peninsula *still* have people that think it’s different here. I know someone that put their Palo Alto home on the market just last week…3000 sq.ft., listed for $2.4 million…got an offer in two days.
“Husing added he had ‘no doubt the Inland Empire will be in a recession in 2008. Last year, there were just 596 jobs added to the work force. The year before 44,200 were added. This year, the number will be probably negative. I’ve studied this economy for 44 years and the number has never been negative.’”
Well, did you study that most of those jobs were construction jobs, and that their holders returned south?
Gee, Husing was a lot more fun when he was touting the IE as the next center of the universe.
Yeah. His recent comments ALMOST force me to demote him from his position of top dog of the economoron crowd. If these comments had come BEFORE the IE was awash in flames, I would actually be impressed.
“But, as estate agent Julie Bruckner tours the property with its chandelier in the living room and a huge walk-in closet upstairs, she is well aware of a poignant irony. ‘There are so many in this area that are vacant.’”
I thought irony was when the *opposite* from the expected result happens. How can so many vacant houses be considered “ironic” when so many here were predicting it years in advance?
It’s like a black fly in your chardonnay!
Right, we were predicting it, but estate agent Julie B was not.
Hi all:
Who wants to get together for another housing bubble party? I’m thinking somewhere in east bay. Anyone who’s interested, please reply here with suggestions.
Thanks,
Big V
A little too far away for Yours Truly. But, if any HBB-ers care to join me here in Tucson…
Yes!!! Anywhere in the East Bay is ok by me. Oakland, Walnut Creek, etc.
Count me in as well
OK. I’m thinking Saturday, March 22nd at El Burro Mexican joint in Newark. Margaritas are always fun, and I just moved to Newark. I’ll post again tomorrow and see if folk like this plan.
I would come but I will be out of town on that day…..”March Maddness” in Reno
!!!
I’m thinking Saturday, March 22nd at El Burro Mexican joint in Newark. I’ll post about it again tomorrow.
While still doing biz in AZ, my car and I are just now on the Central Coast. Would come to Bay Area for HBB party, given sufficient notice.
–
‘Those retailers and businesses that have a product that is desired by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’
Rephrase: ‘Most of those retailers and businesses that have a product that is NEEDED by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’
Small businesses will be hurt the most, especially, those that sell non-discretionary products and services. Expect 1/3rd of the small businesses to go out of business or declare bankruptcy. That will be economic Darwinism alright.
Jas
Isn’t it funny how the evangs tried to get rid of the concept of Darwinism being taught in our schools, while the lion’s share of them, will end up being economic casulaties of it?
So many evangs, so few lions…
–
“The average price per square foot ranged from $96 in Adelanto…”
So, that is what the welcome sign for Adelanto — City Of Unlimited Opportunities — meant. I would say that $50 a sqft isn’t too far in the future (by 2010).
Jas
We’ve been gone for just a month from the USA, and so much has transpired in this short span, economically.
Eager to get back, as the wildflower season is apparently one of the best in recent memory.
Was talking to my neighbor, and he says it’s a virtual sea of yellow…
In my area I’ve seen an Escalade with a Dominoe’s delivery sign on top, still LOL 2 months later.
Wonder what kind of tips he gets.
Get a Civic ?
ROTFLMAO
I *really* hope he has spinners. That just completes the picture…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Hey guys………meet “Kristen”…………..#9’s lady
http://www.pagesix.com/photo/ashley+dupre?page=0,0
You’d think she would have closed her legs for that picture.
Why, Big - that’s what she’s selling.
I like the “X” marks the spot tattoo, on her hand.
Classy Lassie
–
OT, but an example of California Realt-Whore promises…
A local realtor, who sold his home and moved out of the area last year, told me when he called last week that he once overheard an agent in his old office tell a client at the other end: “Lot of Christians will be moving to Tehachapi and the prices will keep going up because of the demand; I guarantee it.” He was taken.
Jas
It’s true that most Mexican immigrants are Christian, hence insane.
I simply cant do this many./
cut by 37bps.
salvage the dollar.
get a handle on oil and gold.
help the dollar and get out in front of the bond market metdown that is starring everyone right in the face.
you will drag equities higher if you get the dollar moving higher.
Are you watching the Yen, Voz!!!
This is scary.
last peek, dollar yen 101.
its time to let equities fall, maybe shut the market down kinda down move. consolidate some big banks. Clean house.
Global intervention is not working. Bring the boys home and focus on why these failures occured. pay the savers a real rate.
Bonds break down here. Im leaving the dollar. scary, but Im throwing myself on the mercy.
this type of move by me, usually indicates a dollar rally. Ive been burned before.
Hoz, can you explain it a little more why “this is scary “, if your still around ?
It is a major blast to the dollar. Imagine tomorrow if the US government said it was going to support the US stock market and the market goes up 100points then sells down 1500 points. The BOJ was trying to support the dollar and they got hit from dollar sellers from every side and capitulated.
I love trading currencies this is just a blow through move. A lack of faith in US policy.
Thanks Hoz
market goes five sigma in 48 hours.
buckle up.
disapointments are coming. try not to push and shove, Im finding it difficult to just stand around and watch. I found a ten dollar bill today.
You are buying at the Dew Drop Inn, my friend! $10 gets 6 beers! Whee.
One of Japan’s older banking heads telegraphed that he expected the yen to be below 100 to the dollar in the next couple of weeks (per a reference I read, I believe, on the market ticker forum).
It is at 101.22 as I type. Sayonara, carry trade!
I think the carry trade is reversed. Instead of borrowing Yen and converting to Dollars, they are borrowing dollars from Bernanke and converting into Yen. As the dollar falls, it is cheaper to convert back. If the dollar strengthens then they get screwed.
It could be 100 in another hour.
Currently 100.79
New Zealand was a prime mover and shaker in the carry trade, and 2 ING NZ funds are redeeming anymore, to the tune of $NZ $520 million.
Japanese housewives can say sayanora to their investments, here.
100.34/100.39
If interested live charts (requires Java)
Dailyfx
http://tinyurl.com/2o6uwp
This is about a 1.5% drop in the dollar value this evening. It is like the DJIA dropping 1500 points.
So there you are mr. dollar…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1loyjm4SOa0&feature=related
In Singapore, while oil was going to USD 110, the USD=CHF went from 1.0318 to 1.0140. Parity for durians… finally!
The way the dollar is tanking tonight, parity may be there.
1.0106
Look at this 5 day chart in the Nikkei.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=5d
Less than 500 points separates the Nikkei and the Dow. During the summer of last year the spread was over 4,000 points.
‘Those retailers and businesses that have a product that is desired by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’”
Uhh yeahh
“A tiny mollusk is increasingly raising concerns across the Southland as the pesky creature invades waterways, where it threatens fish populations and clogs underwater pipes.”
“Boats headed into Castaic Lake each weekend now are being inspected for the mollusks that have spread from Russia to California.”
“And just the threat of the tiny quagga mussel, about the size of a thumbnail, spurred officials to close Ventura County’s Lake Casitas last week to private watercraft other than the few already there.”
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_8539423
If you are a Californian that owns a freshwater boat, get rid of it as soon as you can, for what the market will bear…
Mother Nature always bats last.
May Be OT, but
This is one of those historical “moments” in the Yen/Dollar exchange rate.
If you know nothing else, let me sum it up:
The $ is having its guts pulled out rather viciously tonight
Water seeks its level.
What a week for the News . Sometime I feel like I’m watching the demise of Western Civilization .Governor getting busted for a sex crime ,bad guys not getting busted for financial crimes , while walk-a-ways trash houses and feel entitled to 12 months free rent ,while the Fed Chairman gives loans against paper from future walk-a-ways .
Wow,just Wow . As someone we know on this blog has said many times ,”You just can’t make this stuff up .”
MSN. states, foreclosure situation Overblown. less than 1%
Well, now….
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/ForeclosureCrisisIsOverblown.aspx?page=all
Scott Burns seems to regularly make wildly simplistic assertions in his articles, based on absurd pie in the sky mathematical models. I flamed him awhile back on his advice to first-time buyers to jump in based on the ESPlanner model, about a year ago. He or his assistant wrote and indignant email back - I should probably reply now.
Just chiming in here… I’m on vacation in my native TN. Naturally I’m curious about what’s going on here compared to CA. The truth is that it isn’t shockingly different. The Nashville newspaper’s headlines were that ” city is feeling the pinch” and that there was a marked change in consumer spending habits. The bigger story was fuel prices. I saw an average of $3.14 a gallon out here. That’s a huge amount of money to pay here.
When flying in, I noticed development after development of Mcmansions. Most that I could see looked either brand new, under construction, or just broken ground for. Signs everywhere were for Mcmansions in the 200-250k range… obvious fodder for out-of-state carpetbaggers. I imagine these will not sell well, and given the costs to heat and cool them, become less desirable very shortly.
On a positive note, all the freeways, airports, new office buildings, and so on look new, fresh, and well-built. There’s obviously a lot of new growth here. Anyhow, I’ll report back throughout the week.
Thanks jetson Boy .
If you want to see something really ugly zillow and see what 2806 Shenandoah Dr, 91914 (San Diego County) sold for in 05 and then go to zip and see what it listed for yesterday. Almost a 50% haircut.
Good. That’s proof that it’s not different here.
“There are bargains to be had. One man says he paid $375,000 for a house valued at $616,000. Lot 132 was a five-bedroom family home with a pool and three-car garage on La Salle Circle, Corona.”
$375k for a house in Corona that some homeless person has probably crapped in. A few years ago you could have bought at the coast for that, and in a few years you’ll be able to do so again. Life is too short to live in Corona, let alone be saddled with property there.
“In Daly City, the median price of a home in February was $577,450, down more than $150,000 from $743,000 in February 2007. The median price in South San Francisco was $608,500 in February, down from $766,250 in February 2007.”
This is impossible, as we’ve been told innumerable times even by posters here on this very blog that between Google and Apple there are enough rich employees to buy every house on the San Francisco peninsula and Silicon Valley for the foreseeable future.
“Cindy Robinson, another resident of La Salle Circle, predicts more problems: ‘You get graffiti,’ she says. ‘And then white collar crime.’”
Yep, that’s how it works first the taggers move in, then come the embezzlers and the tax evaders…..stupidest comment ever.