A Mania That Fed On Itself In California
The Associated Press reports from California. “Median home prices plunged in many of California’s most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier. Median home prices fell this year in 15 major counties, DataQuick said. The median price in a six-county area of Southern California fell to $408,000 — the lowest level since October 2004, when it was $402,500.”
“That median is 19.2 percent below the region’s peak price of $505,000 last summer, the firm said. In the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, the median price fell 11.6 percent to $548,000 compared to a year earlier and 17.6 percent from the region’s peak median price of $665,000 last summer.”
“Sales fell 39 percent from a year earlier in Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.”
The Union Tribune. “The median home price in San Diego County last month fell 13.5 percent from last year’s level, continuing the housing price decline that began after a dizzying run-up of real estate values reached its peak in the fall of 2005.”
“DataQuick reported the overall median price for all types of homes in February was $415,000, a drop of nearly 20 percent from the housing boom peak of $517,500.”
“‘The sales counts are so low,’ said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. ‘What we are looking at is noisy, distressed-oriented activity. Anyone who can right now is holding on. We can’t extrapolate and say it’s representative of what the whole market is experiencing because it is just too little. We have neighborhoods where there is no activity.’”
“February was the 44th straight month that total sales of homes of all types within the county dropped on a year-over-year basis.”
The LA Times. “About one-third of Southern California homes sold in February had been foreclosed since January 2007, according to DataQuick. In the last real estate bust, Southern California home prices dropped 19% between 1991 and 1997, according to DataQuick.”
“The rapid pace of the decline has led Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who last year predicted a 20% decline in Southern California home prices, to revise his projection. He now thinks prices will fall 40%.”
“The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed to paying was $1,821 last month, down from $2,303 a year ago, DataQuick reported. Adjusted for inflation, the current payment is 18% lower than the spring of 1989, the peak of the previous real estate cycle. It is 28% below the current cycle’s peak in June 2006.”
The Sacramento Bee. “The La Jolla firm said 2,061 new and existing homes changed hands during the month in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties. Sutter County tallies were not available.”
“Regionally, there were 415 fewer closings than the same time last year. Sacramento County had a median sales price of $257,000 in February. That was down 27.7 percent from a year ago.”
The Record Searchlight. “In the first two months of 2008, the cities of Anderson and Shasta Lake didn’t issue a single building permit for new construction.”
“Of the 12 home permits issued in Redding in February, seven were taken out by D.R. Horton. The national firm is building the River Crest subdivision in south Redding, where it advertises homes starting in the low- $300,000 range, some $100,000 less than what they were going for a year ago.”
“The Press Enterprise. “Inland Southern California continued to be a hotbed of foreclosure activity last month, with the number of homes repossessed by lenders increasing nearly 21-fold in Riverside County and 15-fold in San Bernardino County over a year ago.”
“The most dramatic year-to-year increase was in the number of homes repossessed by lenders because the owners could not find a way out of their financial trouble by refinancing, selling the property for enough to cover the mortgage, or getting the lender to accept a ’short sale.’”
“First American Loan Performance, which tracks about 80 percent of mortgage lenders, says as of December, subprime mortgages accounted for 25 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the Riverside/San Bernardino metropolitan statistical area, which tied with Bakersfield for having the highest proportion of subprime mortgages in the state.”
“Also in December, 33 percent of subprime mortgages in the Inland counties were at least 60 days delinquent, up from about 10 percent a year earlier.”
“Analysts said they do not expect housing to rebound until distressed properties, including bank repossessions and short sales, are gone. ‘You have to clear the deadwood out,’ said Alan Nevin, chief economist for the California Building Industry Association.”
“Inland economist John Husing said he expects that this year, foreclosures will drive down the Inland economy. ‘2008 will likely be the worst year in the 44 years I have studied the Inland Empire because of the housing market,’ Husing said.”
The North County. Times. “Banks have purchased nearly as many foreclosures in North County as have individuals buying homes over the last two months, according to reports from the North San Diego County Association of Realtors and a California foreclosure tracking service.”
“‘That is just the worst possible thing that could happen to a housing market; it doesn’t get any worse than that,’ said Christopher Thornberg, economist for Beacon Economics. ‘What you’re seeing is a buildup of inventories, and that’s going to have a very nasty impact on prices.’”
“Condominium sales in North County dipped 29 percent from a year ago, to 153 homes sold, with the median falling 21 percent, to $310,000.”
“‘I’m typically an optimistic person, but you have to be realistic about the environment we’re in,’ said Lyle Anderson, a real estate agent in Poway. ‘And with the amount of foreclosures coming through the pipeline, I think we’re in this for at least two or three years.’”
“Downtown Los Angeles has seen a much-heralded revival in the last few years. But there are signs that downtown’s residential boom is slowing, if not stalling out altogether.”
“Prices of condominiums have fallen more sharply here than in Los Angeles and Orange counties overall, according to DataQuick. The median sales price for homes sold downtown, almost all of which are condos, fell to $497,360 for the fourth quarter of last year, 16% below the peak reached in early 2007, according to DataQuick.”
“More than one-third of the residential projects approved by city officials have been sidelined. Some real estate analysts say developers and planners miscalculated its appeal as a residential community, leading them to build far too many projects for the demand.”
“‘There was great hype,’ said Fred Sands, a veteran real estate broker. ‘There was sort of a mania that fed on itself. People said downtown was the future, and young people bought into it. Some of those buildings should not have been built.’”
“Sands said he was seriously considering buying apartment buildings in the downtown warehouse district three years ago. He said he changed his mind after seeing ‘an attractive young woman pushing an infant in a stroller, with winos all around her.”
“Paul Park said he and his partner considered moving their office and residence downtown several years ago. Park said he found the well-publicized new night life and shopping downtown wasn’t as abundant as he would like. ‘We weren’t ready to homestead,’ he said.”
“Developers saw an opportunity to convert these vacant, often run-down office spaces into lofts. It’s a good idea that might make sense on paper, said USC professor Peter Gordon, but they were trying to create a market where one didn’t exist.”
“‘There’s a sort of faddishness’ to the demand for downtown lofts without doors on the bedrooms and bathrooms or dedicated parking spaces, Gordon said. ‘I don’t think it extends deeply.’”
The Californian. “A housing project once heralded as a model of affordability may sell its homes for close to market-average prices due to tumbling home prices in Monterey County.”
“Monterey-based Woodman Development Company built nearly all of the for-sale properties, then began advertising the homes in August. Woodman has an agreement with the county to provide homes for moderate and ‘workforce’ buyers, four-person households with incomes ranging from $76,080 to $114,000.”
“But William Silva, a developer with Woodman working on the project, said that without the concessions, the company risks losing the property to the bank. ‘We are unable to compete in this market,’ he said.”
“Silva said that under the original agreement, when homes in north Salinas were fetching $700,000, the Rogge Road homes were supposed to sell for between $260,000 and $480,000.”
“Now, because market-rate homes are selling for less than $400,000, Silva said the Rogge Road homes will have to sell for between $260,000 and $390,000 to meet affordability standards - meaning a loss for the developer.”
“Silva told the committee the only way to get qualified buyers is to remove the income restrictions to allow anyone to purchase one of the homes, not just households that earn $150,000 or less.”
“Since August, he said, only six homes are under contract - five for homes not yet built - and they are unable to sell 41 homes already constructed. That’s despite giving up on the anticipated $4 million revenues from the project and falling $2 million in the red.”
“‘I don’t think we have a successful project here,’ said committee chairwoman Linda English.”
The Voice of San Diego. “In North Park, a curious, but not surprising, thing has happened. Developers built a condominium project, La Boheme, in 2006 with 224 units. They set 45 of them aside as so-called affordable units. The builder is selling three of these identical one-bedroom condos for $183,701 each.”
“They are affordable units, set aside for those with average incomes, as part of a government assistance program that controls their price. Local government must manage and enforce restrictions on who buys these homes, who lives in them and what they do with them over time.”
“The other day, as my colleague, the insightful Ms. Bennett, revealed, one of the normal condos in the development, a place whose value is not controlled by the authorities, went up for sale a few weeks ago.”
“What makes this one interesting is that the asking price for it is less than the prices of those homes set aside as affordable. The sellers are asking $168,000 for the condo.”
“Yes, it has happened. The market, without even trying, just did what the government has spent millions of dollars and hours trying to do.”
“There are two main things wrong with the government trying to create affordable housing units for people to buy. One: it doesn’t make any sense. Yes, you might get some people into homes who might have had to rent. But what’s the point? You also strip them of some of the financial benefits of owning a home.”
“The second reason that it’s awkward for government to try to control the market value of some homes is that…the market value of a government subsidized affordable condominium will never actually drop — the government will see to that.”
“What’s the point of making people homeowners if you strip homeownership of its benefits and risks? You do get the benefit of knowing more people are ‘homeowners.’ But we are paying a steep price to provide a few people this lofty title.”
“The market is correcting from the mania that hoisted prices to the crisis levels that so worried San Diego leaders. What caused home prices to go up so fast is exactly what is causing them to collapse now: the consequences of mortgage lending unshackled by rationality.’
“Unfortunately, like many, city leaders assumed not that those consequences would come home but that we had entered a new reality in which home prices never fell. They decided to invest more than $3 million into something we are close to getting for free.”
‘In the last real estate bust, Southern California home prices dropped 19% between 1991 and 1997, according to DataQuick.’
So we’ve already gone lower than that bust, and we have barely started. Who’s dreaming now?
And LA Times: hello! These condos were a housing bubble by-product that was as obvious as the articles you put out drolling over these ’sleek statues in the sky.’ They never made sense. And why is it that illogical urban lofts and condos in old downtown spaces, pop up at the end of every single housing cycle?
Because the youngest members who are, by definition, the bottom of the Ponzi Pyramid(TM) are attracted to a hip urban-lifestyle?
Running low on “youngest members” to support the ponzi pyramid these days.
What, no hand-wringing news for our resident worriers? All this negativity……..what are they going to do with themselves?
Sorry, I am confused. I’ve followed you so far — the JT, the thrusting, the dirty talk. Now, I’m just lost.
Who are the “resident worriers”?
Us? I don’t think so.
The FB’s? Probably, but they’re not reading the HBB so they don’t count.
A subclass of us? Sounds like the most likely interpretation but who?
Help me out. It’s double-double-whisky time.
It ain’t you, so rest easy. I’ll tell you what, instead of telling you who they are, why don’t we just wait until the next bail-out plan, or rate cut, or Bernanke promise, or bull-sh*t piece of data. Then, just kick back and watch the posts. You’ll be able to identify them by the “Oh dear, we’ve waited all this time for nothing”, or “I guess homes will never be affordable again (sniff, sniff)” comments.
Trust me, there’s been many a time I’ve wanted to JT some of our overly stressed-out brethren.
Oh, boy… here we go again.
There is more than one definition of a “bailout”. My definition is socializing a big chunk of bankster losses, not ***repeat*** NOT bailing out individual FBs and specuvestors.
My “bailout” is still progressing firmly on track.
Fine.
You’re buying the double-double-scotches if we ever meet up.
I’d say save up the gold doubloons or some such but I don’t want to piss you off.
‘here we go again.’
All I can say is don’t be afraid. We’re going to win.
ex-
Following your threads sometimes are like watching a good episode of Benny Hill …friggin hilarious
I’ve run out of lotion, and I can no longer afford to buy new lotion. (Just kidding, of course…)
Lotion is deflating.
Isn’t that what all the professional economists keep telling us about?
Ah youth, tis a shame to be wasted on the young.
Comment by Hoz
2008-03-13 17:52:11
‘Ah youth, tis a shame to be wasted on the young.’
Oh, blah, blah! I got some thoughts here…ooops, just a sec. I spilled something on myself. Back in a tick.
Become a wrestler — they get all the fancy ladies, the clothes, and the free creams and lotions.
– Nacho Libre
‘…the articles you put out drolling over these ’sleek statues in the sky.’
Ahaw! I like ‘drolling’ better than ‘drooling’, because it sounds, I don’t know, somehow…funnier.
“And why is it that illogical urban lofts and condos in old downtown spaces, pop up at the end of every single housing cycle? ”
I don’t know, but I want to know. I have never lived in a real city, only Salt Lake City, UT, and that doesn’t count, because I was in college and therefore drunk and/or discombobulated most of the time, and anyway when I got the chance I ran away into the wilderness and only came back in time for class on Monday, and lots of time not even that.
So these city things are a mystery to me, and one I would like to know more about, as long as I don’t have to live in one. Any thoughts, HBBers?
Same reason that all of the condo conversions show up near the end of the boom. The developers are looking for a way to make a quick buck. Condos can be very profitable when prices are high, since you’re putting a lot of units onto a relatively small patch of dirt. But the developers usually can’t get those lofty prices for condos at the beginning of a boom. Typically, condo prices are the last to rise and the first to fall in a boom/bust cycle. They rise later than SFRs because the majority of people want SFRs, and condos act as a substitute for those that are priced out of the SFR market.
Now, as to the question as to why developers don’t see that a market is unsustainable when it nears its peak, I’m just not sure. Might be that they are just optimists, or maybe greedy (like the gambler on a winning streak who won’t walk away until it’s too late and he loses all or most of his previous gains). Likely, it’s a combination of both, but that’s JMHO.
Probably very simple: they went to their bank with their condo conversion plans and asked for a loan and the bank said YES….And you know NOBODY ever has second thoughts and turns down the bank loan. So he is stuck with building the project.
————————————————————–
Now, as to the question as to why developers don’t see that a market is unsustainable when it nears its peak,
I put this out on LA land blog regarding the dwtn condo situation:
‘I have spend a lot of time in downtown LA during the boom construction phase in 2004-2007. Seen all those hi-rises going up along grand /flower sts in south park district near staples. Also the new developments in the west central district along wilshire west of the 110.
This was pure speculative building by the dwtn boosters who had not a clue as to the fact that LA Dwtn is simply a concrete-encased dead zone with buildings as inviting as pillboxes & fortresses….
Nothing can alter dwtn LA’s ambience unless U raze large parts of the eastern ‘ edge’ districts such as the warehouse district and the fashion district and replace them with greenspace. And somehow transpant the homeless population out of there . Never going to happen so LA dwtn is what it it; a forlorn barren concrete- paved maze enclosed by 4 fwys which create effective constricting barriers and from which rain tons of auto/truck pollutants into dwtn, which is why u get that pale yellowish nasty dwtn air’
Supplemental note: Developers puit up all those Condos and lofts hoping to realize profits at $600,000 a pop plus $
$1000 hoa’s,parking fees, ect. They will have to adjust those prices downward to $300,000 to get renewed interest in dwtn condo living. There is a latent demand
for dwtn LA condos among a certain segment of LA
population but the condos/Lofts have to be priced
right.
Even with all the negatives of LA dwtn living: concrete aspect, dirty homeless, lack of suburban -type retailers,
ect. there are actually folks who would be willing
to brave dwtn living at the right price,say $300,000 or less in a decent dwtn area, not the crapped out outer edges such as west distrct,warehouse, or fashion district.
I lived for a month in a room on the top floor of a Victorian in San Francisco. When I first saw it, I thought it was so cute that I would probably morph into one of those happy-face flowers after about a week of sleeping in it. Unfortunately, after a week of nights in the house, I still hadn’t actually slept due to the constant din of the city. The traffic, the loud people on the street, the road work, the construction. Oh, and then there’s the smells … Onion rings from the pub, curry from the Indian joint, fumes from the exhaust pipes.
Want a pet? OK. Just lock it in your apartment and take it for walks along the side of one of the busy streets or in one of the overcrowded and slightly dangerous parks. It should be happy there.
Want a homeless person? OK. There are always plenty of them willing to accidentally pinch your derriere, request a light for their cigarrette butt, or urinate in your doorway.
But don’t let any of that phase you. Just keep repeating the mantra “I am cool. I live in a cool city with lots of other cool people. I have shopping nearby and the shops are cool. I am cool.” That generally makes people happy no matter what.
Only downtown LA is so much worse. Sure, they have the same problems with pets and homelessness, but they don’t have the “lots of other cool people” or the “shopping nearby.” They are out there amongst the office buildings, with none of the amenities needed for normal daily living (e.g., grocery store, parking, etc.). They are the urban pioneers, but I fear that they may end up more like the Donner party than those that found the gold.
Downtown L.A reminds me of The City of London - bustling and busy during the day, only for it to close down tight after the worker-bees have gone home. Leaving deserted streets, closed sandwich shops and allowing the homeless and the ‘care in the community’ clientele to roam the streets as they wish
Even the pubs close at 9pm in the City.
Every decade or so over the past 50 years some new wet-behind-the-ears city planners sell L.A. city government on some plan to turn downtown into a “pedestrian-friendly” residential environment. Those of us who grew up in So Cal already know the joke, but it’s still funny every time..
“Unfortunately, after a week of nights in the house, I still hadn’t actually slept due to the constant din of the city. The traffic, the loud people on the street, the road work, the construction.”
V, the same thing happened to me oct. 06 . My family was really worried because I just stopped being. Noises and smells. I moved out sept. 07. Then, we had the fires and now we have the carnage. But she lives!
Oof. I’ve got you both beat by a long mile — my wife’s family lives on the second busiest street in Medellin, Colombia. Just visited there for a week; 24 hours of noise from buses, motorcycles (a lot more than here), music, etc. I never can sleep worth a crap there. Fortunately for me, it’s only one week at a stretch.
“The drolling master was an old Congria that used to come once a week”
Bill Bruford 1976
“Sands said he was seriously considering buying apartment buildings in the downtown warehouse district three years ago. He said he changed his mind after seeing ‘an attractive young woman pushing an infant in a stroller, with winos all around her.” The winos were probably drooling and drolling around downtown thats what I think.
Those weren’t winos. Those were FBs who just happen to have substance abuse problems, too.
My condo went from 130 to 210 to 140 during the span of 1987-1995. I guess that’s 19%. LOL
Yea, my house went from $110 to $190 and back to $110 again. By their math 19-11 is 8% right? 19% statewide might be close but most of SoCal dropped 30% to 40% in the last bust this one should be close to double that 60% easy in the IE and deserts
Because the next generation will always need cheap places to rent, and someone has to build them sometime!
“The rapid pace of the decline has led Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who last year predicted a 20% decline in Southern California home prices, to revise his projection. He now thinks prices will fall 40%”
———————
Hey everyone, I just got back from a trip to the future in my time machine. This was a quote from the March 11, 2009 LA Times:
“The even more rapid pace of the decline has led Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who last year predicted a revised 40% total decline in Southern California home prices, to revise his projection yet again. He now thinks prices will fall 60%, and this time he really, really means it.”
I’m about to reset the time machine for March 2010, and I’ll report back soon…
Thornberg was ever the bear on the bubble, si it says one hell of a lot that his lowball predictions were really only at the low end of the ‘it’s contained’ crowd. 40% is years of pain and misery away.
I’m going to for larger (in real terms = inflation-adjusted.)
There are a lot of people who are going to be re-evaluating their assumptions about just about everything (jobs, careers, retirement) in the next few years. That, plus the psychology is going to create the ultimate downward momentum play.
One of the most important thing “value players” need to learn is to respect momentum (both upwards and downwards.)
When I bought my house in 2001 it cost me about 7000 barrels of oil. At the peak in 2005, I “could have” sold for 7333 barrels.
Now, my house is worth about 2273 barrels of oil.
What inflation?
Long houses, short oil?
I don’t think so.
But let’s face it: If he had predicted 40% last year, he would have been dismissed by the MSM.
That is SOOOOOooooo cool. How long ago was it that a few people on this blog (who? Neil? Who was it?) actually exused Thornberg for his optimistic dooming by saying that he had to win people over with something they can uderstand first, then hit them over the head with the truth? I remember saying he was a pansy, but turns out the “reel ‘em in” theory was right.
So “the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth” is replaced by “The mostly true, the amount of truth I think you can currently handle, and maybe a quick plug for my book”?
Now I guess I didn’t know that this Thornberg was really a “good guy”, but I wish that the LATimes reporter had asked “So are you sure that the total decline will be 40%?” and Thornberg had said something like “For now - we don’t wan’t everyone to panic do we?”
You can’t handle the truth!
Love it!
We’re down roughly 40% in my neighborhood from peak prices in the low desert of CA. There’s still lots more room to fall as foreclosures/reo’s come on the market. Banks are listing homes for under $100/sq ft. Homes were selling for 200-250/sq ft at peak.
It was me Big V.
Thornberg put his job on the line being as bearish as he was. Remember in July 2006 (IIRC, the date), he noted that “The OC is different, its going to get Hammered.”
Do watch his videos. He says one thing (usually what is quoted in the LA Times) and then points out how the risk is definitively to the downside! Watch his tone. Also, understand the man has a very dry sense of humor. I’ve chocked on my coffee as he says “everything is fine” and then points out how its really falling apart. You can tell he’s amused by those who only hear the “sound bites.”
40% drop was my original estimate. Gasp… if I have to change it… That is scary! I expected more wage inflation by now too… (not happening)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I agree. (I wrote my comment above before reading this part of the thread.) I absolutely believe that somebody in Thornberg’s shoes would soft pedal what he really thinks so that he does gets listened to.
And 20% was a pretty shocking number at the time.
“‘2008 will likely be the worst year in the 44 years I have studied the Inland Empire because of the housing market,’ Husing said.”
Has anyone seen the foreclosure tent city?
In one of the articles, a person says he is normally an optimist. Anyone who has tracked Husing would have to be convinced that he is also generally an supreme optimist, so his statement is pretty scary.
This housing crash may end up being a “frog in the hot water” deal where we all (or at least me) watch the slow unfolding and, in a year or two, suddenly look around and realize that people from Corona are driving to Oklahoma to look for a job in a cerca 2005 Range Rover with couches, flatscreens, and Ma Joad tied to the roof.
I have only seen photos of that tent city.
But I predict 2009 will be far worse for the Inland Empire than 2008.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Spooky - the BBC nightly news (on BBC America) has just run a story on the Tent City in Ontario, CA. Its says the ‘population’ of around 300 is swelling its ranks on a daily basis.
Wow! How do they keep those tents anchored during the Santa Ana’s?
Why would you need a tent city when there are millions of empty houses. Just break in and change the locks. If the cops come by, tell them that John Doe rented the place to you.
Ask them to produce the documents that prove the person ordering you out actually owns the house. During all that bundling of mortgages and subsequent failures, a lot of paperwork got lost.
Fair question in general. In our fair city far east of CA, HUD years ago put in an office to arrange exactly that: getting people into empty houses.
There are homes in my neighborhood that sold for right around $1million at the height of the bubble that are now being listed in the mid $700K range and sitting for months. I’m around 2 miles from the ocean in Huntington Beach and I know we have a ways to go to hit the bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost 40-50%.
wittbelle: just curious as to generally where in HB you are. I grew up there (Brookhurst & Adams, in the tract behind the Sav-On), and my sister/BIL and their kids still lives in the family home. The houses in her tract probably got up into the $700-$800K range at the peak, so I’m wondering if maybe you’re talking Meredith Gardens or somewhere else.
OT, but still:
I want to install one of those cat door inserts into my sliding glass door track. Since I’m a renter, I want to get one that’s temporary and costs less than $200. I have one in mind, but I want to get input from any other CA renters to see if they have tried any or have any opinions. The reason I specifically want CA advice is becuase our weather is mild and our crime is high, so I figure peeps in Wisconson and such have a different perspective.
Thanks in advance,
Big V
seems like with your IQ you could bore hole Uri Geller style?
its not a spoon.
Maybe it’s a spoon if you only but THINK it ’s a spoon?
My daughter has one, yep — San Jose, bought from HD. Works fine, although not particularly a pretty sight.
Make sure the cat door doesn’t allow possum and skunks inside. I lived near a canyon and found many a possum chowing down on the cat food.
Also be aware that cats can get diseases from other cats. For example, there’s feline leukemia. Highly contagious. And most cats succumb to a FeLV-related disease within two or three years after becoming infected.
Humans can get diseases from other humans too, but we still go outside. Not to start a cat war or anything.
Not starting a cat war with me -
I’ve never understood the American obsession with keeping cats indoors.
C’mon, they’re carnivores - if they don’t get to crunch down on the skull of something little and furry they’ve caught themselves every once in a while, they get fat and slightly crazy.
I ended up having a stand-up shouting match with my (now-ex) vet, when he tried to explain to me how out-of-whack my thinking was re: letting my cats outside, by bellowing
“but….but….you wouldn’t let a three-year old child go outside on its own!!”
So, carefully I pointed out that fully-grown cats and three-year old humans were not alike…..
And this from a freaking Vet.
He also does de-clawing (which has been illegal for decades in the UK), so I decided to take my business elsewhere.
I shoot any cats that come onto my property.
It is against the law in Wisconsin to let a cat outside if it is not on a leash and under the owners control.
This is also the law in many of the states.
Cats spread more diseases and increase pests.
I have a nice little 20 gauge that is just right for the little F’ers. Ithaca model 37.
I have three cats, they are not allowed outside - ever.
Cats are to the US like the brown snake is to Guam. Be a responsible pet owner.
“Cats spread more diseases and increase pests.”
BS. Feral cats are the only thing standing between rats and people in NYC. Riverside Park depends on the feral cat colonies to control rats and pigeons, as the city can’t lay out sufficient poison because the mothers are afraid of their kids being affected. Finally, a few red-tailed hawks have moved in to help the cats out. Rabies and lepto are two of the diseases carried by rats, pigeons, and squirrels.
Men who are rabidly anti-cat usually dislike women as well.
If you’re so desperate to feel manly,shoot an FB.
Comment by speedingpullet
2008-03-13 17:36:20
Not starting a cat war with me -
I’ve never understood the American obsession with keeping cats indoors.
Because I prefer to KEEP THEM ALIVE.
Cars kill
Dogs attack them (and here we have coyotes and cougars)
Send the little things outside in a mechanized world? Why not just have them put down and spare them the pain of lying beside the road badly injured, in pain and dying after being struck by a car?
Mine are more than happy to curl up on top of the bed (which means on top of 2 down comforters on top of 2 layers of pillow-top featherbeds.) They perch on the back of the couch and chairs and watch the world go by out the windows. They have things to stalk and hunt in the house - they torment the dogs who are 11 and 12 times their size mercilessly by pouncing on them, grabbing their tails and getting the dogs to play ‘chase’ (as the cats dive under the coffee table, watch the dogs smack the heads on the table and go ‘hehe’he’he GOTCHA sucker! as they swat a canine nose, bounce off the dog’s back and take off again with the dog galumping after them.)
I have not seen one cat here in Phoenix. In Ca they were everywhere. Werid.
Comment by Big V
2008-03-13 17:00:08
‘Humans can get diseases from other humans too, but we still go outside. Not to start a cat war or anything.’
Yes, Big V, but when we do go outside, do we lick other humans that we encounter on the street or in the forest? Because I think that’s a point here, in a discussion about germiness. In most cases I think we can all say, ‘No. I don’t. Unless they have beer or are cute’. And that’s why we’re not cats, you see.
Perhaps the coyotes? There were never any outside in No. San Diego Co. either. When we moved to Oceanside we ‘inherited’ my oldest son’s cat who was a little nuts (she being found as a feral kitten and all). She would go stir crazy inside, not use the box, get kidney infections, etc. So we let her out from time to time but not the other two cats. Sorry to say ol’ Donut lasted about 90 days before the coyotes caught up with her. We don’t have any cats at the moment though, just too much hassle with the litter box. After 20 some years with indoor cats it’s a nice break. Sorry, talk about off topic!
What is it with the possums and the cat food? We realized there was a gap in my parents’ basement door when I was living at home during college, went downstairs to feed my two cats, and found a POSSUM calmly chowing down on the Science Diet I was shelling out hard-earned cash for! It scared the dickens out of me because they’re creepy-looking little critters, and I was seriously P.O.ed that neither cat did a darn thing to put a stop to it–they both seemed to think it was just a new member of the household. That’s the bad thing about keeping cats indoors–they get a little dumb. The outdoors cats are about a 100x smarter.
Big V: I’m renting a house, too, and needed to get a pet door for my dogs. I got one from Home Depot (also offered at Petco, but HD’s price was about 1/2). It works reasonably well, although it isn’t exactly a weather tight seal where it meets the sliding glass door. In Southern California, that’s not really a big deal and I can live with it. In order to avoid drilling holes in the landlord’s home, I just use one of the locks with the twist screws (attaches to the track) for the sliding glass door and it seems reasonably secure. If it was my own home, I would have opted for the more expensive one that has double paned glass and a better locking system, but I can live with this one.
V,
I rent and love my cats too. the best thing to do is to get a regular (cheap) cat door and place it at the bottom of the spot in the sliding glass door, close the door and measure the opening that’s left. Go to TAP plastics or similar place and have them cut you piece of clear 1/8″ thick plastic to that size. Tape the plastic in place with clear tape. Note: this also works for windows and that’s how i usually do it.
Good luck,
Tom
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http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA080313.aspx
Southland home sales still ultra-low; median price slips again
March 13, 2008
La Jolla, CA— Southern California home sales limped along last month at the slowest pace ever for a February, the result of a market crippled by uncertainty and credit constraints. The median sale price dropped by a record 17.6 percent from a year ago, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 10,777 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in February. That was up 8 percent from 9,983 the previous month but down 39 percent from 17,680 in February last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last month’s sales total was the second-lowest for any month in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. The prior month’s total of 9,983 was the lowest ever. Since September, sales each month have been a record low for that particular month.
…
CB just shut down 2 of its offices effective next week.
HBB Party Alert:
I’m trying to plan another Bay Area HBB party. I was thinking Saturday, March 22nd (day before Easter) at this Mexican joint called El Burro in Newark. Anyone want to go? Anyone think it’s too far or have another suggestion for time/place? Let me know.
Whoa, didn’t read carefully enough and I was thinking party in Newark, NJ?
Not sure anyone is brave enough for that.
Dang, I won’t be going to the Bay Area anytime soon. But, Ben, how about a thread, maybe once a week like your Weekend Topic Suggestions, for those us who’d like to organize/attend local HBB parties?
I read the dowtown LA story this morning. I was curious how the city would let them develop those old masonry bldgs in middle of earthquake territory? O, easy! seems they were granted “seismic waivers.” Ahh. Good luck when the Big One hits down there. I’m sure all the locals will pull together.
Maybe they’re trading seimic death credits - buy a few hundred SDC’s from a well-built hog farm in Iowa, package them into AAA tradeable securities, and sell them to CalPERS. When the Big One hits, beg the Fed for enough liquidity to buy shovels.
Waivers for earthquakes in LA??
In the early 80s the ptb said anything build prior to 75 or 73 had to be retrofitted for earthquake standards IF you wanted a permit to remodel.
Wow, guess that one got ignored.
Did the commercial bldg on Highland and home fireplace in NH, and when the earthquake in SFV occured, my fp was only one standing on street. Hmmm.
AAHH, the waiver. At my company, executives can apply for a waiver from the Corporate Integrity Policy. I absolutely CAN NOT tell you where I work.
Here’s one I’ve been saving; where are those ‘the marina is prime’ trolls? (I never even knew where they were talking about)
marina prime is from the Patrick.net site. I remember all that fuss/bicker bicker … yadda yadda . . . felt like I was married to my ex again watching THAT lovefest !
The Marina district of SF?
When another major earthquake hits, the area will collapse. Prime, lol.
I like Richmond.
I saw a History Channel special on the marina district of SF, when the big one hit in 1906 the city pushed all the rubble out into the bay and began building on it. Anyone who is dumb enough to buy there is putting their family in harm’s way.
Marina is subject to liquefaction.
Liquefaction occurs in saturated soils, that is, soils in which the space between individual particles is completely filled with water. This water exerts a pressure on the soil particles that influences how tightly the particles themselves are pressed together. Prior to an earthquake, the water pressure is relatively low. However, earthquake shaking can cause the water pressure to increase to the point where the soil particles can readily move with respect to each other.
not a geologist just a software engineer
You’re not speaking of Marina Del Rey are you…. “LOL” I hope not…
I used to work in Marina del Rey at a small visual effects study over on Maxella that is now an architectural firm. When I lived in the area, my wife and I visited MDR often, she had friends who lived there, picnics in the park, etc, etc.. at any rate I was back in LA to take care of some personal business and I could not believe the amount of residential construction going on in the small area between Maxella, Washington, Del Rey and Redwood Ave.
Can anyone comment on that area, how well or poorly those projects are doing? Anyone have some web sites for the places? I’m curious as to what kind of nutzo prices there asking for the stuff.
I don’t know how well those projects are doing, but I would never buy in Marina del Rey. Besides being the cheesy place that all my friends’ dads moved in the 70’s post-divorce, it’s almost entirely built on landfill. LA is way overdue for a good-sized earthquake and you definitely don’t want to be anywhere near the Marina.
A couple of weeks ago I had a baby shower in Playa del Rey, the less ritzy but supposedly up-and-coming area by Marina del Rey. There were condos for sale everywhere. The place is dreary, all big avenues and big buildings. For de life of me, I don’t know what people see in Marina or Playa del Rey.
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Bay Area Prices Crashing!
Latest Radar Logic Data On Home Prices Signal Continued Trouble For CA, Especially, the Bay Area
Radar Logic is a competing index to Case-Shiller but publishes daily data (I save it every day when the new data is posted).
The price decline for the latest 8-day period (looking at the preceding 28-days of transactions) is at 1.5% a month rate for all 25 metros and 5% a month for the 5 CA metros. For a change, San Jose Metro is leading with 9% a month rate of decline (PPSF down 2.4% in the latest reported 8 calendar days). Also, SF is declining at 7.5% monthly rate. Soon both metros should join the 20%+ decline club.
SD and LA are doing relatively better because they had already declined more than the Bay Area. Basically, the Bay Area is catching up FAST.
Jas
Hawaii will be next.
For a change, San Jose Metro is leading with 9% a month rate of decline (PPSF down 2.4% in the latest reported 8 calendar days).
To be clear: They are saying that SJC prices declined 9%? In a month?
If true, wow.
Cool. In one year, prices should be 108% lower. Now *that* might stimulate all those “buyers on the sidelines” we keep hearing about!
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Just to be clear, the rate of decline for the last 8 calendar days for the data (they lag) is 9% a month. All I think that is happening is that the Bay Area is catching up to other areas with declines of 20%+ from the peak price.
BTW, the median may not reflect the decline because slightly bigger homes are selling due to declining prices. The Radar Logic data is price per sq ft.
Jas
“Median home prices plunged in many of California’s most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier.”
Do you guys remember when all the “skies don’t fall” people were saying that there was no way prices could drop more than 5%? I actually believed that myself for a short while, just because I had heard it so often and hadn’t yet had the benefit of the calculations done on this site. Well, I wonder what the psychological effect is of seeing that number blown through so completely. I’ll bet a lot of people are thinking that if the price can drop more than 5%, then the whole world just might be ending. I know that we on this site are thinking 50% from peak in good-employment areas, but I wonder what Joe Blow thinks. What is the expectation out there? That expectation could end up being what determines trough prices, rather than our more cool-headed analyses. In other words, how far past the “should be” point do you guys think this will go?
10 to 15% below the local 3X loan to income ratio. In the Central Valley, that is around a 150K median price. So from the peak of say 375K, my 2 bits says a 60% drop.
I will point out that the 3x income doesn’t work everywhere (although it is a good standard). For example, here in OC, I’m expecting that prices will only fall to about 4x income (about what they fell to during the last bust). Now, that’s still quite a fall since we hit about 10-11x income at the peak. Other areas may well fall below 3x. I think you just need to look at historical standards (including previous busts) for the particular area you’re interested in.
Yeah, but historical standards will be dwarfed by this bubble. Prices have never gone this high, and I don’t think we’ve ever had a recession that was actually led by house-price declines. Shouldn’t it go further this time?
It may. I honestly don’t know, and I’m not sure if anyone really knows (as you say, I don’t know of any recession that was led by house-price declines, so we’re in a bit of uncharted territory here). And I don’t know if market will overcorrect to the downside in proportion to how far above the fundamentals it got; I have seen this argument made and I understand it but I’m just not sure if it’s correct.
In the last boom in OC during the late 80s, housing went to about 8-9x income, so this one was definitely bigger for OC but not by a ton. I certainly don’t reject that the downside could go further (maybe to 3x income in OC), but if I had to guess I’d say that 3.5-4x income in OC will likely be the bottom. (Of course, if we go past recession and into depression, then I have no idea how low prices could go, although I guess that would lower incomes so maybe it wouldn’t affect the value in terms of a multiple of income). I think different areas will have different outcomes depending on what their historical fundamentals are and how far off the prices went. And, finally, I’m not sure how psychology will play out here - we had a herd mentality to go into RE, and we will likely end up with a herd mentality to avoid RE (we’re not there yet, and I’m not sure what percentage of the population will go with the herd on avoiding RE).
Plus, This time, the Global thingy is definitely in play.
Banks and all.
Could make for a big waterfall if waterworks were involved. NIagara?
but if I had to guess I’d say that 3.5-4x income in OC will likely be the bottom.
What did the ratio drop to in the mid 1990s? We should expect it to go at least that low this time. Also it seems very likely that the denominator of that ratio, incomes, will decline over the next few years, bringing house prices along in sympathy.
it won’t go below the multiple in the last trough because the demographics have changed in SoCal. There are more poor immigrants who are happy living 2+ families to a house. Do the math. Six incomes paying rent on one property is higher than 2 higher incomes (especially considering tax avoidance/evasion)
Don’t think there is a historical precedent for this correction. Due to the unprecedented amount of mortgage leverage in this cycle - ARMs, IO ARMs, NEG AM, 0 down, Cash Out, etc. These are obviously going to provide a new dynamic unseen in past cycles.
When considering “should be”, consider what “is”.
There are houses in Detroit and other rust belt cities being sold for $5000 or less. There were houses of the same general size and condition being sold in parts of California for $500,000.
In the 1950’s Detroit was the center of the country’s manufacturing power base, and in the late 1990s parts of CA were the center of the “information age” base. Things change.
well, the climate really doesn’t. the OC is packed with escapees from the rust belt. not so much the other direction.
You’re right - the climate is worth a 10,000% premium!
If the jobs leave, nice weather won’t matter all that much.
Never have understood the Califor ‘ians and their obession about the weather making the prices worthwhile.
First, they live crammed into together so tightly that they don’t have a yard - or if they do, it isn’t big enough for my dogs to find a place to pee. Hard to enjoy the outdoors at home when you don’t have enough room to walk 10 steps either way in your yard.
Then they spend all their time in the air-conditioned house/condo/apartment leaving to dash to the air-conditioned car to go to the air-conditioned workplace.
If they do go out into the public spaces, they need to carry a portable respirator because of the air quality. (assuming they are up for sloggin through traffic.
Then endless warm weather and ugly palm trees? I mean how utterly boring can you get. It is always the same. too tedious for words. Kind of wearing the same color or same type of clothes, or eating the same food day after day after day after day……..
Much more interesting to look forward to spring or summer or fall. Even gorgeous hot summer days can get boring and the coming of crisp fall weather is welcome. Blankets of snow give you a reason to not feel like you have to go outside and do something strenous.
Our seasons do change here, but they are different than yours. It’s really nice here, but the weather obviously does not explain bubble prices. It’s worth something, but not as much as most people around here think.
The Rust belt has more water than the West does. Eventually, that will make a difference.
Climate, Schimate.
I have a yearly reminder on my computer to start taking my allergy medicine in the beginning of April, otherwise I’ll be miserable (it’s optimal to start taking it before the allergies hit).
A week ago, I started sneezing badly. It seemed like it was too early to be allergies, so I was confused. Then a colleague at work started complaining about allergies. Tonight I saw on the news that a lot of people had been complaining about allergies, and that the tree pollen is way up for this time of year. Heck, as I look out back, I can see leaves starting to come out on the trees — I usually don’t see this until the cherry trees start to blossom.
This is NoVA. I hate to use one datapoint as trend, but it winters certainly seem to be getting more mild here.
a bit off topic . ..
I see that runaway OC Housewife “Jo” landed herself a paying gig over at the Emperor’s Club.
“Music” career, eh? HA!
Where is this? My wife watches that show!
That’s despite giving up on the anticipated $4 million revenues from the project and falling $2 million in the red.”
“‘I don’t think we have a successful project here,’ said committee chairwoman Linda English.”
WOW! That Linda English is on sharp chairwomen!
Well, she’d better get off of them before she gets poked!
- Woodman has an agreement with the county to provide homes for moderate and ‘workforce’ buyers, four-person households with incomes ranging from $76,080 to $114,000.”-
Those are ‘moderate’ incomes? Since when?
We made $120K last year, and it placed us in the top 10% and in another tax bracket.
And now these idiot is telling us we are low income?
WTF?
I don’t know if my previous post went through (got an error message). It went something like this:
If these loans are going to “workeforce borrowers”, then who is giving loans to “nonworkforce borrowers”? What lender is giving money to people who don’t have jobs and apparently haven’t saved any money either, so they want a loan?
Considering that the houses are in Salinas, a farming community at best of low paid migrants and working poor, I have no idea how these clowns pulled $150K income of of their asses as moderate income, why it had to be 4 people in a house and not a family of four, or how in the world any one in that area could realistically afford their “affordable” housing. This truly is an example of bubble thinking gone wild.
“They are affordable units, set aside for those with average incomes, as part of a government assistance program that controls their price. Local government must manage and enforce restrictions on who buys these homes, who lives in them and what they do with them over time.”
If their incomes are “average”, then what’s the rationalization for giving them special government assistance? Must be to prop up house prices.
It’s very nice to know, Big V, that both of us probably qualify for food stamps based on the “average incomes” they’ve managed to dream up in Bizzaro Realtor Developer World.
Argh. I owe $$ on taxes again. I have paid enough money in taxes this year to support the salaries of at least 2 social workers, maybe up to 4 depending on where they live. I deserve food stamps!
Me too, all for that ultimate sin of having savings. Oh well, now that Uncle Ben has stolen the food out of my mouth with artifically low interest rates my taxes will go down along with my standard of living.
If we had more female planner types in san diego we could have a meet up. Salad, are you one of those planny types?
Me either. But we sure have a ton of us in sd. Anybody in SD wanna do an emergency rate cut meeting soon?
V, I owe taxes. Every year I shake for a few weeks, pay the shit and move on. I’m in the trembly stage as I type.
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Data discontinued?
San Jose Merc used to publish DataQuest numbers weekly for three counties by zip codes. The last update was on 2/13/08 for the 4-week period ending 01/28/08.
I am assuming that it has discontinued the weekly updates.
Jas
You can get it directly from DQNews
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Weekly-Charts/Mercury-News-Charts/ZIPSJMN080128.aspx
“You can get it directly from DQNews”
Jas knows that; you missed his observation.
I realized that an ulterior motive was suspected - but didn’t know if everyone knew the data would be available anyway.
They publish it weekly still. It is on Saturdays. They reorganized the paper and it is in a different section, maybe Living.
Neck car track in Bakersfield in trouble because of the credit crunch. A big WS firm backed out of their land option:
http://www.bakersfield.com/136/story/388253.html
Neck car .. neck car? I’m reading the article.. see nothing. I look at the k/b for likely misspelling due to nearby keys..
is ‘neck’ shorthand for redneck?
affirmative, modifying car track, not car. Bakersfield is the giveaway, I don’t even need to check the link.
NASCAR attendance weakening; they even advertised locally for the Daytona 500 this year. They’re just unhealthy, overpriced, noisy get-togethers for people with $#it-eating jobs. The same demo (maybe slightly younger) that rides Harleys, the quintessential J6P.
LMFAO!!!!
find a way to fit steroid-pumped long-haired dudes in man panties, into stock cars, and you’ll make a fortune.
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‘Some real estate analysts say developers and planners miscalculated its appeal as a residential community, leading them to build far too many projects for the demand.”
This wasn’t the first or the last time. Miscalculations happens everytime in a boom and justifications are provided and history is ignored.
Jas
In the words of French philosopher Voltaire:
“Those who can make you believe absurdities
can make you commit atrocities.”
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“People said downtown was the future, and young people bought into it.”
Let us see the list of those who were eager beavers to buy near the top:
1. Young people
2. Single women
3. Blacks
4. Hispanics.
…
Economic Darwinism?
Jas
Do you have any data to support your proposed list of “most likely FB”?
They are all on the target list for demand-side affordable housing programs (e.g., negative-down-payment loans that make it very easy to buy homes, however expensive, with no skin in the game…).
Years of articles posted here with 22 year olds rushing to buy (mostly women), young married couples willing to work 4 jobs for their “Dream”. Plenty of minorities stepping up to the plate and being royally screwed by their helpful (insert culture here) realtor and loan agent.
Bet weren’t white men in there too, right with the rest of them? I realize that women and minorities suffer from pay discrimination, so they are more easy to trick with that golden carrot, but we have read more than enough stories about men who thought they were providing for their families when they caught their knives.
Except most FBs by a long-shot are still “middle-class” whites. So maybe it is economic darwinisim . . . just not the kind that people around here like to believe in.
With zero down loans, what did they lose besides their credit score for a few years? The illegal immigrants can just go get a new TIN and start over tomorrow
Citizens could do that too.
““‘That is just the worst possible thing that could happen to a housing market; it doesn’t get any worse than that, ‘What you’re seeing is a buildup of inventories, and that’s going to have a very nasty impact on prices.’”
Ah, what a nice quote
Sounds good to me…..
Slim;
http://news.aol.com/story/_a/800-dogs-seized-from-mobile-home/20080313075109990001
Local scuttlebutt is that these people weren’t overwhelmed by caring for so many animals. They were running a puppy mill.
An update on my OT a couple of days ago…
Now my favorite janitorial union has modified their sign from “Shame on ‘fill in the company’. Labor dispute.” to something like “‘phrase in spanish’. Illegal immigrant abuse.” Hold on there cowboy. Have we moved Guantanamo Bay up to San Diego? I don’t think you know what that word “abuse” means. Requiring buyers to put a substantial downpayment on a house is abuse. Not seeing 20% in the bag appreciation on real estate is abuse. Please, a little perspective is needed. The destruction of real estate myths is upon us…one abuse at a time is all I can handle.
At my company during that nationwide walkout a few years back, when they returned to work they were shocked to see we cut their contracts and gave them to another group. Don’t want to show up to work? Fine, then we will give your jobs to someone who will show up to work. We did it to the lunch truck too, who also didn’t show up that day. Now the old lunch truck still tries to come by but can’t so they park on the public street about 20 feet from the lunch truck who was given the contract. Then the red and white sign showed up, which also showed up at our customer’s site, because they too didn’t want union labor (they got a better rate from non-union).
So you are saying that you don’t want a middle class?
You’d rather have teensy wages and disgruntled workers, and pay yourself a huge astronomical wage/bonus? To heck with the plebes?
Carnegie?
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“…but they were trying to create a market where one didn’t exist.”
American capitalism at its best!
Jas
“trying to create a market where one didn’t exist”
Sounds like a perfect recipe for market failure.
“‘There was great hype,’ said Fred Sands, a veteran real estate broker. ‘There was sort of a mania that fed on itself. People said downtown was the future, and young people bought into it. Some of those buildings should not have been built.’”
“Sands said he was seriously considering buying apartment buildings in the downtown warehouse district three years ago. He said he changed his mind after seeing ‘an attractive young woman pushing an infant in a stroller, with winos all around her.”
Good ole Freddie, if there was a buck to make down there in real estate him and the Donald would have been all over it.
Those downtown condo’s are a horrid mistake. Untill they crack open the skulls and bury the bodies of the ACLU and remove that homeless population there will be no vibrancy downtown.
You could clear the streets of every man, woman, child, dog, cat, and rodent and downtown LA would still be a miserable place to live. My 2 cents.
Yeah I hung out there a couple time and there never was a there there. Too bad.
About a year and a half ago I went with friends who wanted to check out Sky lofts. We went on a Sunday in the middle of the afternoon and parked about a block and a half away. Even that walk was a sketchy person safari. Inside we were told to hurry up and put down deposits because the units were going fast. They started in the 700s. Even at that time you could buy a condo in the Hollywood Hills for less. The windows wouldn’t even open in the units we saw. But my friends thought it was great and a real bargain. I felt like everyone was speaking a foreign language I couldn’t understand.
Yeah, i’ve been on lots of photo shoots down there. don’t wanna be there much after sunset, oh no. It’s a WRAP!
Funny you should mention that. Our courthouses (city, county, and federal) are located in downtown Tucson.
I’ve heard that judges don’t want jury deliberations to go past 5 p.m.
Reason: Downtown isn’t the safest place to be after dark. Hence, the judges dismiss the jurors until the following morning.
In Tucson, you have to be kidding…what happened? used to be a nice place…
Had an excellent restuarant there called Carlos and Charlies if I remeber correctly…excellent shrimp wrapped with bacon dish..
That’s a scene right out of Bonfire Of The Vanities
“‘The sales counts are so low,’ said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. ‘What we are looking at is noisy, distressed-oriented activity.’”
It’s noisy, all right, but like volatile food and energy price movements, which are deemed too noisy to factor into the headiline CPI inflation calculation, this noise all moves in only one direction (and it ain’t up).
“February was the 44th straight month that total sales of homes of all types within the county dropped on a year-over-year basis.”
FOGHAT lyrics - Slow Ride
Slowride, take it easy
Slowride, take it easy
Slowride, take it easy
Slowride, take it easy
I’m in the mood
The rhythm is right
Move to the music
We can roll all night
Oooh, Slowride
Oooh, Slowride, take it easy
Slowride, take it easy
Well, John, let me explain something to you about noise. Noise is defined as anything that is less than 10% of signal. If all you have is distress-oriented activity, then that is your signal, not your noise, see? We are nearing a point where the nondistressed sales will be the noise, and the distressed ones will be normal.
YOY data smooths twelve months worth of (white) noise.
Geez…weren’t we just talking about Corona yesterday…Somebody spent 375k and thought it was a good deal…I guess they had not seen this..
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-re-foreclosed13mar13.pg,0,3993252.photogallery?index=9
The starting bids on the rest of those homes are almost at reality bit not quite…interesting stuff…
I forgot to add talk about catching a falling knife…sheesh
If they haven’t gone to the formal signing, if I were the “buyer” I would feign the buyers flu and never show up for final.
YIKES>
Is there a Lemon Law or Buyers remorse law for 72 hrs for houses?
Look, I thought that part of the program for government interference with real estate was that in any given local ,builders would promise to build x amount of rental units (apartments ) for the lower income workers .
How planning for different income levels in a local went into the government providing home ownership to people who make 100k a year, is beyond me . If I remember right, years ago ,the concern was lower income people not having places to rent because of builders not being willing to build apartments ,(not government providing home ownership to people who really can’t afford it ).
Look ,I don’t like the fact that we have different classes of income . Wouldn’t it be a idea world if everybody could be rich …….but..I don’t think that will change and the government can’t afford it anyway . Today the policies are catering to Wall Street and it’s making it harder and harder to be even middle class .
When houses were cheap ,it did give the lower classes a goal ,and on up the property ladder ,but the whole idea was going up the scale income wise . The fact that corporations aren’t giving raises in keeping with inflation ,employees are paying greater portions of benefits like health and pension plans ,and increased lack of job security ,yet record profit are reported for the stock-holders .Now ,it seem to be a world of lets please the stockholders . The test of the Corporations ability to pay greater benefits to their employees should not be based on how much slave labor competition is willing to work for ,but what are the Corporations earnings that are not being passed on to the employees .I am sick of Corporations saying they can’t afford this or that for employees ,yet they brag to the shareholders how much the earning were
made and CEO’s get fortunes also . Corporations can also raise prices with inflation ,as you see that they do ,but forget the employee . So if anyone accepts this general idea these days that Corporations can’t afford to give to their employees ,than just watch CNBC on how the CEO’s brag about the earnings .(Of course this is all going to change with the recession ) Also ,the tax policies have been favorable to the Corporations for a while now . What are the Corporations going to do if the consumer/employee doesn’t have the money to buy their junk anymore.
That’s the whole point of being a Democrat, and why we’re probably getting our first black President in November.
I’m not against Corporations or against them making a good profit ,but heck ,there has to be some balance here .You can understand why people are very insecure today . Sorry about ranting on and on .
Amen Wizard, amen.
My dental tech told me her husband is a butcher for Vons and says the price of meat is the same but the corporate guys jack up the prices because they can. Hmmm.
I thought prices were up because it’s more expensive to do biz.
Same thing with oh say, expediadotcom and travelocitydotcom types of businesses. When they sell a ticket, they can sell it for a certain price here in the states, but the same exact site with another country tag on the end of search gets you a lower cost ticket. The CEO or COO or whatever, said on tv when asked (saw it in UK) that the prices are what they can bear in that particular region. So, when you search those sites try adding a uk or br or whatever and see if you get a cheaper quote. Sort of like a Vons in a high end nabe vs a low end one.
Affordable housing isn’t for the people who can’t afford it. It’s for the businesses in the community that don’t want to pay a living wage. If they can get the gov to build cheap housing for their minimum wage employees they don’t have to offer raises to attract workers.
I think most of the “low income” Government Housing went to government workers anyway. So the landed Gentry have police, firemen, schoolteachers etc around to wait on their needs.
–
“There are two main things wrong with the government trying to create affordable housing units for people to buy. One: it doesn’t make any sense. Yes, you might get some people into homes who might have had to rent. But what’s the point? You also strip them of some of the financial benefits of owning a home.”
The problem is lot deeper and more widespread than the affordable housing. USG’s intervention in housing can only be characterized as extreme starting with tax “incentives.”
Jas
BTW, the comment about “But what’s the point? You also strip them of some of the financial benefits of owning a home.” is flat wrong as most programs are run.
The buyer gets the property -they have a mortgage and get the interest deduction. Property tax bill come in their name and everything.
The difference is that there is a coveneant that runs with the land (meaning in the deed) that specifies that (1) the propoerty can only be sold to someone who (a) will live in it full-time and (b) meets the income restrictions; and (2) the buyer-now-seller can not sell at full market price (assuming appreciation beyond the amount which a similar household can pay) but if incomes have risen and the next household can pay more, then the buyer-now-seller gets a % of the gains upon sale in proportion to the amount of value that their mortgage covered. (Ex: Market value $200,000, buyer had ‘paid $100,000. Incomes have gone up with inflation so next buyer can handle $110,000 mortgage and ‘market value’ is now $220,000. Seller gets $10,000.)
If the buyer stays there and pays off the mortgage, they can leave the property to their heirs related to them by blood or marriage. The heirs are subject to the same retrictions about living there full-time. If they don’t live there, it has to be sold and the proceeds split as described.
“Median home prices plunged in many of California’s most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier. Median home prices fell this year in 15 major counties, DataQuick said. The median price in a six-county area of Southern California fell to $408,000 — the lowest level since October 2004, when it was $402,500.”
Geekville question for y’all. Suppose I have YOY data (e.g. 17.9 pct drop is current value) going back month by month for several years. How can I convert it to MOM annualized? (Someone post the data and I will post the solution.)
The reason I ask is that the 17.9 pct YOY drop handily masks the deceleration which has transpired since August 08. Price declines did not kick into overdrive until the onset of the credit crunch.
I tried to do this, and concluded it was impossible.
YOY changes, even if known monthly, can’t give you the
monthly changes.
Ignore the set of calculations that follows. They require you to have the 2005 median price numbers. Skip to the second set of calculations. I think they’re right, but I can’t think too much about it right now because I have to go to the gym. Someone should chime in on whether they make sense or not.
I just did it in Excel. Let me see if I can paste.
I can’t get paste to look good. Here:
Start with 2005 price, make that 1.0
2006 price is a ratio of 2005 price, like 0.95
2007 price is a ratio of 2006, like 0.90
2007 price can now be a ratio of 2005 if you multiply the 2007 ration by the 2006 ratio.
Now you can subtract each monthly price (as a ratio of the 2005 price) from the preceding month to get mom relative changes.
Try pasting this into Excel and see if it looks good.
2005 Price 2006 Price Relative to 2005 Price 2007 Price Relative to 2006 Price 2007 Price Relative to 2005 Price MOM Change in 2007
Jan 1 0.819585764 0.125378209 0.102758195 n/a
Feb 1 0.762542412 0.358355964 0.273261621 0.170503426
Mar 1 0.90829701 0.531299626 0.482577861 0.20931624
Apr 1 0.734075592 0.778787006 0.571688532 0.089110671
May 1 0.577884323 0.037915105 0.021910545 -0.549777988
Jun 1 0.126158427 0.473642613 0.059754007 0.037843462
Jul 1 0.550734448 0.654145679 0.360260559 0.300506553
Aug 1 0.842272411 0.507001101 0.427033039 0.06677248
Sep 1 0.456642966 0.910717519 0.415872749 -0.011160291
Oct 1 0.182554402 0.700888948 0.127950363 -0.287922386
Nov 1 0.079759208 0.763118625 0.060865737 -0.067084626
Dec 1 0.944579452 0.65473968 0.618453649 0.557587911
I guess you don’t have 2005 prices every month, though, do you? I think dataquick was still publshing those in 2005, but I think they also stopped in July 2005. Let me think some more. It feels possible.
I only see four columns but five headings; is 2005 price = 1 for all months?
Did you make up those numbers? If not, what are they? (I am guessing maybe ABX index nos?)
I think I know how to now, but do you have real data?
Those were just randomized numbers from Excel. I have to admit that I rely on you guys to have actual numbers.
I was futzing around with differences, and I think it makes sense
Percent Change 2005 to 2006 Percent Change 2006 to 2007 Difference in Percent Change From 2006 to 2007 MOM Change
Jan -0.180414236 -0.874621791 -0.694207555 n/a
Feb -0.237457588 -0.641644036 -0.404186448 0.290021107
Mar -0.09170299 -0.468700374 -0.376997385 0.027189063
Apr -0.265924408 -0.221212994 0.044711414 0.421708799
May -0.422115677 -0.962084895 -0.539969219 -0.584680633
Jun -0.873841573 -0.526357387 0.347484186 0.887453405
Jul -0.449265552 -0.345854321 0.103411232 -0.244072954
Aug -0.157727589 -0.492998899 -0.33527131 -0.438682542
Sep -0.543357034 -0.089282481 0.454074553 0.789345863
Oct -0.817445598 -0.299111052 0.518334545 0.064259993
Nov -0.920240792 -0.236881375 0.683359417 0.165024872
Dec -0.055420548 -0.34526032 -0.289839772 -0.973199189
The idea is that, if I dropped 20% less this year than I did last year, but you dropped 10% more this year than you did last year, then you dropped 30% more than I did. Am I being silly?
Easy. Once you have the drop in yoy from the first year to the second, then you can start subtracting yoy drops in years 2-n from consecutive months to get mom drops.
Sounds right, but would have to put pencil to paper to check this (I am not a physicist, ya know
).
Here’s my second day of observation on my vacation in my home state of TN.( I live in CA) Anyhow, this morning I went out to breakfast with my dad. I grew up sort of in the sticks. Over the years, new subdivisions and housing developments have popped up all around them. But What’s interesting is that even out and away from these developments, it seemed like every single road- even unpaved ones- had at least one or two ‘for sale’ signs out front. If we passed an actual housing development, there were as many as 5-6 signs.
This is interesting from a number of perspectives. For one, this is in an area that still has decent homes in the 100-150k range. I’m not saying that this is necessarily cheap for the area, but it isn’t as crazy even with the differences in wages between here and CA ( which aren’t as different as you’d actually imagine) Secondly, when I was a kid and even into my early college career when I still lived here, a home for sale was actually kind of a rarity. People bought and stayed in the same house for 20-30 years, only selling if they retired, needed to relocate for a job.Now it seems like there’s a massive amount of homes for sale. My guess is that investors jumped all over this place because it was “cheap” and figured they could unload them easily. It’s really kind of sad to see it happening even out in the sticks where I grew up.
I just hope they didn’t chop up a lot of farmland to make way for all those investment shacks.
i.e.d’s are blowing up all over the i.e.
Karmic justice would include some FB’s Hummer being repo’ed, along with the defaulted house…
“Inland Southern California continued to be a hotbed of foreclosure activity last month, with the number of homes repossessed by lenders increasing nearly 21-fold in Riverside County and 15-fold in San Bernardino County over a year ago.”
Fleet Enema has problems a’ plenty…
1) Most of their reservoirs have the dreaded quagga mussel in them.
2) The real estate market is the most overvalued in California.
3) At some point we have to stop spending money like drunken sailors on our military, and there will be nothing left there, except nice weather and no jobs.
“The market is correcting from the mania that hoisted prices to the crisis levels that so worried San Diego leaders. What caused home prices to go up so fast is exactly what is causing them to collapse now: the consequences of mortgage lending unshackled by rationality.’
“The rapid pace of the decline has led Los Angeles economist Christopher Thornberg, who last year predicted a 20% decline in Southern California home prices, to revise his projection. He now thinks prices will fall 40%.”
I’m pretty sure he’s right - they will fall through 40% on their way down to 60%.
Might have to go and buy this book
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=afBb7ceD8uDk&refer=home
If every American understood how inflation is taxing them to reward gamblers there would be riots. Gas and food prices just might get us there.