Sliding Along On The Bottom
The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “More than 300 people gathered in a conference room at Invesco Field on Tuesday evening in the metro area’s largest foreclosure forum to date. The metro area recorded 26,500 foreclosures last year, said Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who described his own struggles to keep his home in 1976. ‘This is not an individual failure,’ Hickenlooper said. ‘We are seeing a systemic failure.’”
“Sharon Foxworthy was among those seeking help after payments on her family’s mortgages adjusted this month from about $2,400 to more than $3,000. The family met its March mortgage payment by skipping other bills, but needs to refinance quickly to avoid foreclosure.”
“‘We are gasping for air,’ Foxworthy said. ‘Why can’t I connect with someone who can give me real answers?’”
“Colorado ranked fifth in the nation for foreclosures in February with a total of 6,737, according to RealtyTrac. That was a 27 percent bump from February 2007. Many of those homes could end up at an auction.”
“Foreclosed homes sold at auction present a risk to potential buyers because homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages may take a physical toll on their houses before being evicted. During that time ‘they could have been ripping out piping and plumbing,’ says Michael Clarkson, a broker associate in Westminster.”
“Auction shoppers should consider the housing trends for the area in question. ‘You can save 20 percent (on the house price), but if the market is going down, you’re catching falling daggers,’ Clarkson says.”
“Mark Marati, the employing broker for Lone Tree-based Benchmark Realty, says he suspects auction inventory isn’t as high as one might think. ‘The banks don’t want to give property away. . . . The auction is the last resort,’ he says.”
The Vail Daily from Colorado. “Jeff Brode thinks he knows how to kick-start a project: Give away a $400,000 duplex in Gypsum.”
“Brode’s company is the new sales broker for the Aspen Ridge project, and wants to get the spring construction off to a solid start. The giveaway is the biggest splash Brode knows how to make.”
“Of course, there are some strings attached. The biggest is that the home will be won only by someone who’s already signed a purchase contract, qualified for a mortgage and put down a nonrefundable $10,000 deposit on one of the 20 available duplexes by April 15. The winner will be drawn from that group of committed buyers.”
“Brode’s company is also a partner in a deal to buy the remaining unbuilt lots at Buckhorn — almost 600 lots — so generating buzz at Aspen Ridge will provide a lot of momentum for those plans, too.”
“Brode has a history of creative financing. He put together construction-loan/mortgage packages for the first homes built at the Chatfield Corners subdivision in Gypsum.”
“As the nation’s subprime mortgage market has imploded, packages like the ones that built so many homes at Chatfield just aren’t available anymore. People who qualify still can get a loan for 95 percent of a home’s price, but even 5 percent down on a $400,000 home is $20,000.”
“It wasn’t always this way. ‘We couldn’t keep homes in stock when we started Buckhorn Valley,’ said Sam Garton Gale, one of the partners in the Buckhorn Valley development. ‘We’d sell the homes as fast as we could put them up.’”
“But while the current real estate market is slow, don’t expect to find any bargains, at least not at any of the units Brode’s company is selling. ‘Price drops hurt everyone,’ he said. ‘To live here, you’ve got to work harder, and you’re going to pay more.’”
The Arizona Republic. “More than 400 people filled the room hoping to land a deal on a Dobson Bay Club condominium Sunday, but only a handful walked away from an auction with a bargain.”
“Fourteen condominiums at the complex on Baseline Road near Alma School Road were sold absolute, meaning the seller was obligated to sell regardless of the highest bid.”
“Joel Kaplan of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. Kaplan, a broker and investor, said he’s purchased 30 properties in the past year.”
“Russland Capital Group bought the 166-unit apartment complex two years ago for $19.5 million and converted them into luxury condominiums. Originally, 24 condominiums were to go on the auction block, but only 14 were sold absolute.”
“Todd Good, president of Accelerated Marketing Group, which organized the auction, said the owner will sell the remaining 10 at the average auction price in the next few days, then they go back to the original price.”
“Stephanie and Willie Prest, of Payson, also scored a condominium for $120,500 and hope to lease it. Dennis Logan of Mesa took a two-bedroom, two-bath condo for $120,500. Retail price: $219,000.”
“A first-time homebuyer, Logan was all smiles about his new 1,196-square-foot home, calling the auction, ‘a great opportunity.’”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Most professionals that home buyers work with are regulated by the state, including real estate agents, appraisers and home inspectors. But loan officers are a lingering exception.”
“Members of the state’s mortgage-lending industry say it’s about time to change that. A bill in the state Legislature would require ‘loan originators’ — loan officers who deal with the public and generally work on commission — to be licensed.”
“The state currently requires mortgage-lending businesses to have licenses but doesn’t require licenses of the employees who interact with customers.”
“If loan officers were required to be tested, ‘I’m sure by the hundreds many of them would fail because they had no training,’ said Mike Jones, a branch manager for Tucson Mortgage Co.”
“‘It’s important that Arizona protect its citizens from all those people who can’t get work in other states,’ said Felecia Rotellini, superintendent of the state Department of Financial Institutions. ‘There are no industry or consumer groups who oppose it. None. Everyone thinks it’s a good idea.’”
“A lack of a licensing requirement makes it easy for criminals to do business as loan officers here, said Richard Hagar, a Washington real estate appraiser who helps law enforcement with mortgage-fraud cases.”
“‘That’s what I see is crooks that were in other states — when they get disciplined, those people leave and move to Arizona,’ Hagar said.”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “The numbers continued to worsen for the Las Vegas housing market in February as sales of new homes plunged nearly 40 percent to 867 and their median price dropped 11.8 percent to $283,315, SalesTraq reported Tuesday.”
“Existing-home escrow closings fell 59.7 percent from a year ago to 901 and the median price is down 13.2 percent to $250,000.”
“Again, the number of foreclosures during the month exceeded the total for both new- and existing-home sales, SalesTraq President Larry Murphy noted. The 1,870 repossessed homes represent a 353 percent increase from 413 in the same month a year ago.”
“‘We’re still sliding along on the bottom here,’ Murphy said.”
“Foreclosures account for about 40 percent of existing-home sales in Las Vegas and many are being sold at 35 percent to 50 percent below peak values of 2004, Smith said.”
“‘Ouch,’ he said. ‘It’s depressing and makes many (homeowners) very angry to hear, but that’s the way it is.’”
“Las Vegas has about 13,000 preforeclosure filings. Smith doesn’t think the ‘foreclosure spigot’ can be turned off quickly even with government assistance.”
“Murphy found it interesting that Trump condominium-hotel had its ‘virgin’ closing in February, Palms Place had 20 to 30 closings and Allure had 30 to 40. He expects to see more closings of high-rise units in March, perhaps 300 to 400 in addition to single-family new-home sales.”
“His concern is that the flurry of closings in the early months won’t be sustained as fewer buyers are able to close escrow on condos that are selling for $1,000 per square foot, for example, at Trump.”
“‘I’ve got a funny feeling in my gut that these guys are swallowing canal water here,’ Murphy said. ‘I’m going to give it six months after Trump has his first closing, by August. I’ll bet by August that not more than 50 percent of those units have closed.’”
‘Utah’s job growth declined in February to 2.3 percent, mirroring the nation’s downward trend in employment growth, the Utah Department of Workforce Services reported Tuesday. The department’s chief economist Mark Knold attributed the decline to diminishing jobs in construction work.’
‘Utah’s construction industry is shedding jobs,” he said. “That means that not only have jobs been lost, but the job-loss trend will continue.’ He added that permits for new home construction have recently fallen by as much as 70 percent.’
‘U.S. banks are operating in confusing times, and Northern Colorado’s industry is not immune. Taylor anticipates that the rest of this year will be much of the same, with the region seeing the impact of current economic times. ‘I think 2008 will be a pretty tough year for banks,” he said. “The residential housing market, particularly in Northern Colorado, has really taken a hit.’
‘Our neighbors in Weld County continue to suffer through both sales and price declines with year-to-date sales down 22.7 percent and the average price down 12.2 percent to $180,413. Windsor is particularly hard hit, with year-to-date sales down 36.1 percent and the average price down 15.4 percent to $214,624. There is a current inventory of 422 homes for sale and with just 150 sales in the last six months this is a 17-month supply - a big road block to any improvement.’
‘Obviously those buyers who are undecided are letting opportunity pass by, because it is evident that we are not going to have any major price decline in this market.’
BTW, from the few articles I’ve seen, these REIC guys in the Vail and Aspen areas are as slimy as anyone.
Ben, you’re right on about slimy. I used to teach at the local community college (adjunct prof) at the Glenwood, Carbondale, and Aspen campuses and the college let its employees take free classes, so I signed up for the RE series. Most of the classes were taught by Aspen real-estate slimeys. I learned a lot about the profession in those classes, as most of them were also involved in REICs. I finally quit, it got to me, couldn’t stand the thought of associating with such lowlifes (I had good parents).
This is from Realtytimes.com re: Northern Colorado
No homes priced above $745,000 were sold (in Windsor), although 70 were available.
In Johnstown, . . . No homes priced above $289,100 were sold, although 41 were available.
In Loveland, in February, . . . No homes were sold that were priced above $605,000, although 106 were available.
btw, sales are the upper levels have been this way for well over a year.
Starting to see some capitulation on the part of builders holding inventory, but the masses aren’t clued in yet.
I’m not surprised. 600K is still considered very upmarket over here. No doubt the stupid builders were expecting equity rich Californians to buy these monsters.
Here is an example of a 600K house in Loveland.
http://www.realtor.com/realestate/loveland-co-80537-1090207933/
Several things about that home.
-Looks nice.
-It is in CO.
-Quarter acre.
Now the bad.
-Shouldn’t be a penny more than 250K.
-Too big to heat, as you get older, 2 floors/too large. etc., unless you have about 7+ kids and a nice 6-figure income.
-It’s in CO.
While I like that, I just can’t get my head around the cost and upkeep of something like that. I am sticking to my 250K, tops, offer.
“Shouldn’t be a penny more than 250K.”
I’d offer 300k for it. It’s in a nice community, but the asking price is nonetheless totally ridiculous for Loveland.
To my knowledge we’ve only had one foreclosure in our general 80s-era neighborhood in Loveland, which is about a 1-in-300 rate. One pair of FBs took their overpriced sale off the market and plan to “ride it out,” and another pair has been double-paying for a while trying to sell their house here after having bought another in Fort Collins.
All in all, it’s not too bad (yet) in our vicinity. I regularly clean and oil our two 9mm pistols, though, just in case.
I’m very interested in N. Western Colo. up around Steamboat Lake. I have been told that prices will not come down because money from europe is flowing into the area b/c of the exchange rate. I’m skeptical b/c the prices are incredibly high relative to what you get and are comparable to San Diego pie-in-the-sky prices. Appreciate Colo. perspective. I have to buy a 2d property b/c taxes.
“Sharon Foxworthy was among those seeking help after payments on her family’s mortgages adjusted this month from about $2,400 to more than $3,000. The family met its March mortgage payment by skipping other bills, but needs to refinance quickly to avoid foreclosure.”
Really? Refinance for around an extra $600 in payment? Hmm.
My question would be, “Gee Sharon, how many cars do you have, and what are the payments and insurance on them?”
Perhaps it’s time to move down to a Ford Focus, my dear.
If a “family” can’t squeeze some fat out of the budget and come up with $600, refinancing isn’t going to help them.
payments on her family’s mortgages
Was that a typo, or does Sharon have more than one mortgage too?
Good eye. Looks like they will walk away from more than 1 house.
I think what she wants and what everyone in her situation wants is another 1% teaser rate that won’t reset for 10 years.
I always wondered if they actually knew the meaning of refinancing. If they couldn’t afford their current arm mortgage, do they think they can refinance to a cheaper payment schedule.
They should just NOT pay the mortgage and play chicken with the lender.
Change their phone # and get a po box so they won’t get the lender/creditor bothering them.
But really, is it more than one mortgage?
Probably a first and a second loan on one house.
“Mark Marati, the employing broker for Lone Tree-based Benchmark Realty, says he suspects auction inventory isn’t as high as one might think.
‘The banks don’t want to give property away. . . . The auction is the last resort,’ he says.”
Are all reporters/note takers completely stupid? Call these clowns on their comments. I mean pop this guy in the head and say the bank is not giving a damn thing ‘away’! To do that would mean selling it for zero money or less. They may take a lose but that is not giving it away… Wow it’s past time not to let these realtards get away with these idiotic comments, Please!
“Foreclosed homes sold at auction present a risk to potential buyers because homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages may take a physical toll on their houses before being evicted. During that time ‘they could have been ripping out piping and plumbing,’ says Michael Clarkson, a broker associate in Westminster.”
How are you supposed to “know” the value of a foreclosed property when this stuff happens? Aren’t banks required to have some sort of insurance on the property that covers this, plus damage that wasn’t there at the time of the mortgage inspection and appraisal?
I still haven’t figured out if buying something at auction without an inspection is EVER a good idea.
indeed, talk about a “pig in a poke”
Plus, “the auction is the last resort” is pure nonsense. REO auctions are a great way for banksters to unload overpriced crap on unsuspecting marks who think they’re getting a great “deal” just because it’s an auction. Professional bankster shills-bidders prompty help bid the price above the secret reserve price (the amount of previous outstanding mortgage owed + tax lien + maintenance, F.C. & overhead costs), then let the suckers “win”. Which, in many cases, means an empty shell that the previous FB gutted/damaged in anger before being evicted from.
Auctions are the banksters’ best friend.
‘REO auctions are a great way for banksters to unload overpriced crap on unsuspecting marks who think they’re getting a great “deal” just because it’s an auction.’
You’ve identified the current stage. Due to the proliferation of seminars the crowd of marks is really large this time, but I suspect most will be saddled, out of the market, bankrupt by mid 09. I’m interested in buying tax liens in CO. Anybody with information or interest, please email me at hikerdadlvp at yahoo.
Youd be better off buying a short sale or REO listed by a realtor. Forget the auctions.
the secret reserve price (the amount of previous outstanding mortgage owed + tax lien + maintenance, F.C. & overhead costs),
By that reasoning, if the house was an underwater jingle mail, the secret reserve price would be *higher* than comps and would never sell.
These sham auctions won’t last long. We’re at the stage where the banks “aren’t going to give the house away,” exactly like the FBs. Uh-huh. Just wait until the banks runs out of credit, exactly like the FBs did. The bank will be doing its own version of jingle mail to the Chapter 7 liquidators, exactly like the FBs.
they need to live in tents for a while
Lostcontrol
I am in an OSHA 500 four day train the trainer class with 30 construction guys. I am having so much fun I can hardly contain myself. Just got done giving a presentation on exavation safety. Good thing I have this blog to read while I am pretending to pay attention.
I can relate. I’ve taken an OSHA safety class that made boredom look interesting.
You know AZgolfer, when I attended these seminars, I found the attitude of my boss, like home office training, was forget about it, we either don’t do it that way or we do not want to meddle in the client’s operations and lose the account (if profitable). If not profitable, the underwriter pulls the plug on the account no matter what the client promises.
Again, unless you are loss control manager for a major corporation, the stuff you learn about safety is a waste of time. You will never get to apply it. Unfortunately, you are the eyes and ears of the underwriters. In the 1970’s-90’s safety professionals tried to establish creditability, however, the name of the game is money. Once you realize this, and not make waves, you will have a long career, until they can replace you with someone that requires a lower salary.
Just my experience!
AZgolfer,
I am thinking of Dan Peterson, I believe from AZ Univ. was a hero, of mind, in explaining how I thought I could get beyond breaking the chain of causation of an accident. The problem has and will always be the responsibility of management.
Over the years in loss Control, I have found that at some level of management, a decision was made to cut corners, even when those mgt’s knew it was wrong. It was base all on money.
If you want to really want to know what’s going on in your client’s safety activities, attend safety meetings. If you are careful, you will find that at some level of your client’s management knows what the problems are the short cuts that were taken and the knowledge that the probability of a serious loss was misdiagnosed.
I am sure that with your experience that you are well aware of this. I guess this is for the benefit of those that have not been in the trenches.
LC & AZ Golfer,
I think its time for the Loss Control thread. (Kidding)
“the stuff you learn about safety is a waste of time”?!?!?
I look at it this way. Where else can you work for a stable company, get to go out and ask people a million questions about their company, spend most of your time at home working on the computer and listening to “talk radio” (or watch the NCCA Tourney) in your skivvies, have your boss living in another city, have the ability to manage your own calendar so you can sneak out and go golfing, and generally speaking have an excellent life.
I mean a buddy of mine in the OC wanted to be a lawyer or something else that made a lot of money. But you know what, he’d have to really work for a living.
“‘I’ve got a funny feeling in my gut that these guys are swallowing canal water here,’ Murphy said. ‘I’m going to give it six months after Trump has his first closing, by August. I’ll bet by August that not more than 50 percent of those units have closed.’”
________________________________
Well, I’ve got a funny feeling what these guys are swallowing is…never mind. How many times did Trump go bankrupt in atlantic city? I know this time will be different in las vegas…where dreams come true and prostituting one’s daughter is actively encouraged. More lipstick tatyana, ivanka, or whatever your name is?
Where’s merv the perv when you need him? The FED is still shooting blanks and everyone is swallowing air thinking it’s the sweet juice of life. It was Lessing who wrote “If Sweet
Delusion then makes way for sweeter truth”. Indeed.
Eww, I hate pervs!
The British are people too and deserve love and respect.
Seems you are partial to hysterics instead. To each his own.
“But while the current real estate market is slow, don’t expect to find any bargains, at least not at any of the units Brode’s company is selling. ‘Price drops hurt everyone,’ he said. ‘To live here, you’ve got to work harder, and you’re going to pay more.’”
Mr. Gale’s got some ego here. I think he needs a market reality check and take some economics courses.
RE: The Vail Daily from Colorado. “Jeff Brode thinks he knows how to kick-start a project: Give away a $400,000 duplex in Gypsum.”
“Brode’s company is the new sales broker for the Aspen Ridge project, and wants to get the spring construction off to a solid start. The giveaway is the biggest splash Brode knows how to make.”
“Of course, there are some strings attached. The biggest is that the home will be won only by someone who’s already signed a purchase contract, qualified for a mortgage and put down a nonrefundable $10,000 deposit on one of the 20 available duplexes by April 15. The winner will be drawn from that group of committed buyers.”
Since there are no free lunches in the world, the raffle is a seller’s concession of $20k on the balance of units to secure the monies for the give away.
Purchasers could find themselves underwater before they even get out of the starting blocks.
This is a ploy enabled by appraiser’s who couldn’t even spell concession, never mind know what one is.
And in Gypsum? Bedroom community for Vail, nothing else there except for freeway and a somewhat quiet volcano (maybe only 10,000 years since its last eruption) that most folks aren’t aware of. The local schools used to take the kids on field trips there.
There’s one of those quiet volcanoes near Flagstaff, AZ. So, if we don’t hear from our Fearless Leader (hi, Ben!) for a few days, Sunset Crater may be the reason.
If yellowstone ever erupts most of the rockies and midwest will be dead.
Exactly. I was there last August and I told my brother, as soon as we were a mile from the park boundary, that I was glad to be out of there for just that reason. He just gave me one of those looks. (He’s a geologist.)
Studied geology in Colorado. Monument rock, situated half away between Colorado Springs and Denver contains an impressive view of a layer of rock fall/ash from Yellowstone a least a foot thick, IIRC. It takes about a day and 1/2 to drive to Yellowstone from there.
It’s waaaay too freaky a thing to think about Yellowstone erupting.
The Discover channel did a movie on the volcano erupting in Yellowstone and what could be the aftermath. It was called Supervolcano.
How is this not an illegal raffle? If purchase is required to enter, then it is not a give-away, it is a raffle and proceedes HAVE to go to charity…… right?
I was going to comment on Gypsum too. It’s not a place that could possible justify $400k condos. Gypsum is really the kind of place you’d imagine putting your trailer up on blocks to stay while the jobs hold out. Don’t even cut the hitch off, you’ll need it to leave.
It’s called Gypsum for a reason. And it looked like you describe before the blob from Vail spread to it - trailers on blocks.
Wow $400k for a condo in the middle of nowhere Colorado. Sure there’s nice mountain views but still? Why not just visit for a summer week?
Nope, no nice mountain views in Gypsum. Just gypsum hills on the other side of a tight valley with a freeway in the middle.
Wow…. I am shocked. Wouldn’t touch it for even $50k. NW Pennsylvania has more to do!
even vail isn’t what i would call scenic. a bunch of fantastic views of I-70 but that’s about it.
Just spoke to a title rep in CB office who said “who is bear stearns”… swear to gawd. And this woman wants me to get into a biz that is ‘fronted’ by Trump.
No waaaaay.
Cluelesssssssss.
“Sharon Foxworthy was among those seeking help after payments on her family’s mortgages adjusted this month from about $2,400 to more than $3,000. The family met its March mortgage payment by skipping other bills, but needs to refinance quickly to avoid foreclosure…‘We are gasping for air,’ Foxworthy said. ‘Why can’t I connect with someone who can give me real answers?’”
Ring, ring, ring…Mrs. Foxworthy answers…
BanteringBear: Hello, Sharon?
Sharon: Yes.
BanteringBear: Hi, BanteringBear from the housing bubble blog.
Sharon: Bubble blog?
BanteringBear: Yes, bubble blog. However it’s a little late to discuss the blog. Moving on, I see you were hoping to connect with someone with the real answers as far as your mortgage goes, so I took it upon myself to call you.
Sharon: Why thank you.
BanteringBear: Well, sure, I guess, but the real answer is, you’re f***ed.
Sharon: What do you mean, you smart mouth!?
BanteringBear: Are you in need of a real definition, now too?
Sharon: What kind of call is this?!
BanteringBear: It’s a reality check, Sharon, you’re finished. Quit making the mortgage payments, and prepare for life after the foreclosure on the home you never could afford in the first place. Good luck sweetheart!
LOL! real blog drama!
The call of the wild from BanteringBear, who is aptly named - LOL
I’m telling ya, I bet ol’ Sharon is driving an X5 or a Lexus SUV, and Mr. Sharon has some kind of luxury car or SUV, and there’s at least one power toy (boat, waverunner, ATV, snowmobile) in the garage.
I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure they could come up with the balance of their mortgage payment by trading the fancy cars in for a couple of Mazda 3 wagons.
What are these “other bills” they skipped to pay last month’s nut? Credit cards, car payments, boat payments, what?
“Someone with some real answers”=someone who can bail my a$$ out
Price drops hurt everyone,’ he said. ‘To live here, you’ve got to work harder, and you’re going to pay more.’”
Riiiight. I would be glad to tell him to blow it out his azzz!
Ah… the power of wishful thinking and denial.
Maybe he meant price increases? Lower prices benefit everyone except the idiot speculators and FB’s who caught falling knives.
“Brode’s company is the new sales broker for the Aspen Ridge project, and wants to get the spring construction off to a solid start. The giveaway is the biggest splash Brode knows how to make.”
Nonsense. I bet he could make a way bigger splash if he was chucked off a cliff into Lake Powell. Or, maybe just a moist ‘thunk’ sound, since I just heard this morning that the bathtub rings (showing diminishing water) in Lake Powell are just freakin’ astounding. I heard this from my sister and mom, who are visiting me from Utar! I have pointed out several of these thingies we here in Olympia call ‘trees’. They was plumb astounded, and took pictures.
But anyway, back to the subject, yes, let’s heave this Brode guy off a cliff and test that time honored aphorism: If a nitwit goes off a cliff, does he make a big splash? I’m eager for some scientific testing here.
Trees? What the H-E-doublehockeysticks are that??
(Gonna change my name to Lost in Utarrrr.)
Trees is super, losty!
Them’s large wonderful things that come out of the earth and heave towards the sky, holding up the stars with their beautiful arms. Like turnips in many ways, except more grand and majestic, and they don’t taste good with butter.
Oh, heck–ain’t no way to describe them. I’ll just send you a picture one a these days.
*If you change your name to Lost in Utarrrr I’ll mail you a case of jell-o! And a bag of carrots to grate into them, so it can all be just right, according to time-honored Relief Society recipe. For, verily, if the jell-o salad hath no carrots, that’s just plain wrong.
Can’t even picture that, though I had a Hopi friend describe something like that once when he was on peyote. And what the hey’s a turnip?
That’s a big No-Can-Do on the jello, Oly, even with organic carrots, but thanks. Don’t need it, it comes with every meal in every &%$*& restaurant here in Utarrr.
And what the hey’s a turnip?
A turnip is part of a family officially classified as “vegetables that every supermarket seems to have, but you can’t find anyone who actually eat them”. Look for the “rotted” section in your local store.
PS - And who doesn’t love a good jello salad?? (Called “the pink stuff” in my extended family”)
‘…though I had a Hopi friend describe something like that once when he was on peyote’
Sure, your ‘friennnnnnnd’, huh. Ummhummm.
Come on, losty, we accept you just as you are–wandering around in the winderness, taming finches and having visions.
LOL sounds romantic >:)
Well, I like turnips, too, Bye. But evidently not like YOU do.
LMAO!!
Oly gal, would we Hear the splash? Would we care?
We would care if it got our sandwiches wet. And that’s about it for my concern.
OT-SORRY
well the market roared yesterday up 420 on the dow and today down what 250-300
this market is such crap and the housing bubble is crap as well i wish it just collapse already in nyc area
thanks for letting me rant
5 cents, please…
Wow, inflation. Thoughts used to only cost a penny.
Yeah, but with the depreciation of the dollar…
It’s not off-topic. The only end to the market’s volatility will be a confidence in a bottom in asset de-valuation. I do not see that happening anytime soon. Defaults, exercises of remedies, and fire sales are increasing daily.
That interest rate drop only helped for a couple days. Now stocks are almost back to where they were. In a few more weeks with interest at 1%, they are finished.
Mudd who is the head of Fannie Mae?? and that idiot Maria gal, were blah blah blahing this afternoon and sure sounds like we have gotten the “bottom” for sure, and since the Fed has allowed the Fanmae to reduce their protection from 30% to 20%, which btw was higher because of last time they were caught doing illegal thingies, now the fed seems to have said, Fanniemae no longer has to protect itself to the 30%, hence opening up what? 200 bn to refinance, make loans etc.
Did I get that in a nutshell?
Do these people all drink the same jimjones koolaid or Lie juice?
When the tide goes out all who have no clothes will be exposed. And no, it won’t be pretty.
Common mis-conception. It wasn’t Kool-Aid, it was grape Flavor-Aid.
“Don’t drink the Kool-Aid” was from Tom Wolfe in the late ’60’s.
WHO HOO….Thousands of Bear Sterns employees will get low/no bonuses this year…. That should help.
‘Obviously those buyers who are undecided are letting opportunity pass by, because it is evident that we are not going to have any major price decline in this market.’
I’d like to see these used-house salesmen back up their words by guaranteeing the price of the house for the next 18 months. If it’s so obvious and evident that the prices won’t decline, I’m sure they’d have no problem making this guarantee to their buyer customers. (Of course, even if they made this guarantee, I wouldn’t buy, since they’d go BK from all of the claims against them from other buyers).
I keep hearing this. Prices have declined a good deal in some locations. Hopefully the other locations follow suit.
“‘We’re still sliding along on the bottom here,’ Murphy said.”
WTF? Sales of new and existing homes are down 40% and 59.7% YOY, respectively. Prices of new and existing homes are down 11.8% and 13.2% YOU, respectively. Foreclosures exceed total sales of new and used homes, and foreclosures are up 353% YOY. This guy clearly doesn’t know what the bottom is; they haven’t hit it yet (so they can’t be sliding along it). Instead, they’re still in free fall and, apparently, in denial if they think we’ve hit bottom.
I’m going to get called a troll again but it’s always good to ask a legitimate question: Do we know that there will be a return to ‘traditional’ lending standards again? I wonder if there will be a new standard set (who knows, it could be 10% down, 30 or more % down…maybe 40% debt-to-income, maybe 40+year mortgages like they have in Europe) because of all of this?
One thing I am noticing is that in my area, people who own their homes outright (and bought them at 1/10th to 1/4th of todays prices) seem to be the most stubborn about price drops. I had a 75 year old guy tell me about a home I had inquired about that “This home is unique, blah blah blah…it is a steal at 595K (city assesses at 380K…still a ripoff)…they’re not making any more land, blah blah…”, and according to tax records it cost him 157K 10 years ago!
If I were 75 years old, I’d be happy to just get a fair price, but this guy wants me to make him fabulously wealthy for what, maybe another 5 to 10 years before he kicks the bucket?
No fricking way have we even come close to the bottom…
Friend of mine bought just under 200k in 2000. Could have sold for maybe 600k at the peak, but she still gets very testy whenever talk of a housing bubble comes up. I mentioned I saw some places in the low 300s the other day, and she just wouldn’t have any of it.
Oh well.
Then she never wanted to sell in the first place. My parents didn’t want to sell even though they could have made 100s of 1000s towards their retirement and bought a similar house back for a third the price at the bottom.
The good thing to come out of sellers who can’t or won’t sell is they save some FB from catching a falling knife.
Ben, you missed a perfect follow-up.
One day the AZ Republic runs an article on Mesa condos going for 40% off list price.
The NEXT day they have an article on a new condo project starting in Surprise.
http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articles/0317gl-nwvdiamond0319cover.html
“We’re targeting younger, more active retirees who want to be in a vibrant, urban setting like Surprise Stadium Village,”
That vibrant, urban setting is on the distant outskirts of the metro. It currently has cows grazing on it because of the tax advantages of it being treated as ranch land.
“Rents within the community would range from $2,500 to $3,000 per month, said Legarde.”
$2500 and up to rent a 1000 sqft apartment when you can rent a 2000 sqft house for under $1000 a month a few blocks away.
These would be a rip-off even at 40% off. More like 75% off needed!
Since when was Surprise considered vibrant and urban? And what’s with this vibrant and urban rhetoric anyway? It’s time for these RE marketers to come up with some new adjectives.
God I hope no one rents any! They will either have to lower the rents, sell price or walk away.
Does that huge rent price come with maid service/ daily breakfast/lunch, massage? what?
Will rent for much much less.
Surprise, AZ is home to the vibrant mega-church phenomena.
“Avenir’s Surprise project would go up close to the city’s future downtown”
“Future Downtown” ?
“Hip & Edgy Retirees ?”
“$2500 rent” ?
What is this ? Field of Dreams ? Who the hell dreamed this crackpot idea up ?
Field of Dreams… exactly.
First a bunch of houses.
Then borrow against the tax base to put in a ballpark for pre-season “cactus league” games.
3rd, Draw on a map…. Future downtown, future major shopping district, future hip and edgy urban core…..
Then throw up the luxury condos… I mean the condos for hip and edgy retirees…. There was an article a week or so ago about one of these projects catering to gay and lesbian retirees.
Meanwhile, traffic in and out is a nightmare, no jobs or industrial base, and it is one of the hotbeds for foreclosure activity.
Well by looking at the artists rendering they only have two people looking! That may not bod well for the real thing should it ever happen.
Sure is nice to know that this good earth has no other value besides building more stick houses. Like to know what we all plan on EATING when we can’t afford to ship all our food from 3rd world countries.
I live in Surprise and $3K/month is a bargain for this hip, urban spot. Kidding. The powers that be have been promising all sorts of business ventures for that stadium-adjacent parcel since before spring training games started there in March 2003. As of today, the only completed project is a Holiday Inn that opened a couple of months ago. Plenty of dirt and dust.
Surprise Stadium is a great place to spend a March afternoon, but that hardly makes it an area that commands high rents due to vibrancy. Houses rent for well under $1,000 all over this area.
“‘We are gasping for air,’ Foxworthy said. ‘Why can’t I connect with someone who can give me real answers?’”
Because those people didn’t exist in the first place Mr. Foxworthy…and when you were too busy counting $$$ signs in your head, you didn’t care at that time either….
So tough sh&t pal.
“Joel Kaplan of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. Kaplan, a broker and investor, said he’s purchased 30 properties in the past year.”
These are the kinds of scum I’m worried about. They are bad news for honest, hard-working people who genuinely want a home for themselves and for the long run. It’s people like Kaplan who were very very likely neck deep in propogating the fraud, flipping, etc that we are now paying the price for today.
I’m not so worried about guys like that unless he paid for them using WMFDs (Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction): option-ARMs or NINJAs. If he paid for them using WMFDs, then he could easily outbid any regular civilian using conventional financing. If he used cash or conventional financing, it would be much harder for him to recklessly overbid.
I looked him up in County Recorder website…..
I see at least 8 purchases back in 1999-2004. Most sold within a year or so. I only see a couple refi and HELOC since 2004.
Me thinks he boasts with his 30 properties in the last year claim. That, or there are no Deeds filed against those properties in his name.
Another Learning Annex graduate, they all own 30 properties, all cash flow positive from day one, no tenant problems, and they started with no cash down. wink wink
Did he buy them under a LLC “Name”?
At least that Flipper gal is buying low and selling just a few sheckles more-not trying to make massive amts. But at this time, it would make me very hesitant. Either way.
“Joel Kaplan of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. Kaplan, a broker and investor, said he’s purchased 30 properties in the past year.”
My post got swallowed…so here goes again.
It’s people like Kaplan that worry me…he’s the same sc*m that started tis entire fraud, flipping stuff…people who really want to buy a home for their future and enjoyment and long term benefit really need to look out of pieces of work like Kaplan.
““Sharon Foxworthy was among those seeking help after payments on her family’s mortgages adjusted this month from about $2,400 to more than $3,000. The family met its March mortgage payment by skipping other bills, but needs to refinance quickly to avoid foreclosure.””
Walk away, moron!
Oh, boy, do I have to chime in on this tidbit from the original post:
“If loan officers were required to be tested, ‘I’m sure by the hundreds many of them would fail because they had no training,’ said Mike Jones, a branch manager for Tucson Mortgage Co.”
True story: I used Tucson Mortgage as my home loan originator. Big mistake. Why? Well, here goes…
During the initial interview with this company, I was asked for my
mailing address, which is a post office box. I told the interviewer to
send any correspondence to the post office box, rather than to my street
address. The reason I gave was this: The street address mail went into
my landlady’s mailbox. I didn’t want her to know, much less suspect,
that I was looking for another place to live until I’d found one.
A few days after that interview, the loan approval letter arrived at the
street address. And it was handed to me by the landlady.
Right after I got that letter, I called the company and repeated my
original request that all correspondence be sent to my mailing address,
rather than the street address.
Shortly thereafter, a Fedex delivery arrived at the street address. It
was a tin of cookies from the man who had done that initial interview.
And it had a “Thank you doing business with us!” note.
Nice gesture. Or so it seemed at the time.
When the cookies came, I was still about three weeks away from closing
on my house. During that those three weeks, everything went to blazes.
Most notably, I waited and waited and waited for the paperwork that
would tell me what my closing costs and monthly house payment would be.
Finally, three days before the closing, I asked my real estate agent for
this information. He was having his own problems getting answers from
the originator, and he told me that I’d have to contact them. (By this
time, my agent was so exasperated that he couldn’t call the originator
without getting into a shouting match.)
So, I called the man who had interviewed me and was supposed to be
handling the paperwork. He told me that he’d e-mailed the closing cost
and house payment information the week before. I told him that I didn’t
receive it, and would he please send it again?
He did, and it went straight into my junque e-mail file. This missive had
a cryptic subject line, several paragraphs that referred to the software
used to send the e-mail, and an attachment with a long, convoluted
filename. No wonder my e-mail software flagged it as suspicious.
Well, as the late night infomercial people like to say, “That’s not
all!” The originator also had the real estate agent and the title
company put verbiage into the house contract that delayed my closing by
three days. It was only through the kindness of the sellers that I was
able to move in when I did.
Although I’ve since made it very clear that I was unhappy with their
service, Tucson Mortgage just won’t go away quietly. I still get periodic mailings from them.
Interestingly enough, their mailings are coming to my post office box, and, yes, I have made repeated requests to get off their mailing list.
So, to all of my fellow Tucson HBB-ers, don’t patronize this company. Please.
“‘We are gasping for air,’ Foxworthy said. ‘Why can’t I connect with someone who can give me real answers?’”
This reminds me of the people on CNBC 6-9 months ago saying “We need visability” in a way that shows they think that would make it all go away. This is back when $30 billion in total write-downs was considered “kitchen sink” reporting and would eventually result in write-ups.
If we had true visability right now, then we would see house prices fall 40%, that 25 million mortgages will be underwater by a net total of $3 trillion or more, that all of the major financial companies are insolvant, insurance companies and pension funds are busted…
The TRUE insiders realize that visibility is the LAST thing we need. They beg the Fed to take the MBS off the market to make sure we DON’T get price discovery on them. When it looks like losses will be hidden for another quarter, we get huge rallies. A bit of bad news that looks like it could lead to price discovery, and…. woosh…
Foxworthy, you can’t handle the truth.
The Arizona Republic. “More than 400 people filled the room hoping to land a deal on a Dobson Bay Club condominium Sunday, but only a handful walked away from an auction with a bargain.”
“Fourteen condominiums at the complex on Baseline Road near Alma School Road were sold absolute, meaning the seller was obligated to sell regardless of the highest bid.”
“Joel Kaplan of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. Kaplan, a broker and investor, said he’s purchased 30 properties in the past year.”
“Russland Capital Group bought the 166-unit apartment complex two years ago for $19.5 million and converted them into luxury condominiums. Originally, 24 condominiums were to go on the auction block, but only 14 were sold absolute.”
“Todd Good, president of Accelerated Marketing Group, which organized the auction, said the owner will sell the remaining 10 at the average auction price in the next few days, then they go back to the original price.”
“Stephanie and Willie Prest, of Payson, also scored a condominium for $120,500 and hope to lease it. Dennis Logan of Mesa took a two-bedroom, two-bath condo for $120,500. Retail price: $219,000.”
——————–
I live not too many miles from this development. So-so part of older “east valley” - good central location but no real allure. It’s a converted apartment complex - probably dating to the mid 1980s and has been relatively well kept, but the “bones” are still old - AC units and such and will need replacement soon enough, along with re-roofing the whole place, sealing the parking lot, etc.
The idea that a 1 bedroom there could rent for more than about $600 a month is insane! 2 bed - maybe $750, and $900 for the three bedroom. Do the traditional rent ratio math - that puts values in the $60k to $90k range, period. And if these turn into Mesa community college student rentals (about a mile away), then all bets are off about long-term value.
These people who thought they got bargains will never get the cash flow, and these units will be quietly dumped in the next year or two. As for the “retail prices” - might as well make it a million if you’re going to pull a wishing price out of your arse.
Any AZ investors want to wait for this thing to implode and feed on the carcass with me? You too can be a slumlord!
http://www.apartmentcities.com/Phoenix-Apartments/d/dobson_bay_club_AZ.asp
Don’t know when those are from…. These are the list price, so if you could probably negotiate off from there.
“March 19 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co. sued XL Capital Assurance Inc. to force the bond insurer to honor $3.1 billion of guarantees on collateralized debt obligations as the securities firm attempts to avoid more writedowns of mortgage-backed debt.
“`We filed suit to make clear that XL Capital Assurance Inc. is required to meet its contractual obligations,’ Mark Herr, a spokesman for New York-based Merrill, said in an e-mailed statement today.
“CDOs, which repackage mortgage bonds and other debt into new securities, were the biggest source of the more than $195 billion of mortgage-related writedowns and losses at the world’s largest banks and securities firms since the beginning of last year. Merrill’s $24.5 billion top the list. Banks had tried to limit such losses by taking out insurance from companies such as XL, a unit of Security Capital Assurance Ltd.
“Other bond insurers including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. may also seek to cancel $100 billion of contracts on CDOs tied to subprime mortgages that they wrote if they’re unable to shore up capital through other means, according to Janet Tavakoli, president of Chicago-based Tavakoli Structured Finance.
“‘Apparently in light of the current dramatic downturn and deterioration in the credit markets, defendants are having `sellers’ remorse,’ Merrill said in the complaint filed today in Manhattan federal court.”
http://tinyurl.com/create.php
Darrell_in _PHX:
Are you saying that the only way out of this is Great Depression 2.0?
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Any CO folks still on this thread? Just got home from work and notice it.
My wife has an excellent job offer in Boulder and I was wondering what the bubble situation is there. Never been to Boulder but apparently prices are stratospheric. We’re not particularly inclined to move at the moment but she might fly out and check it out.
What’s the Boulder real estate situation? Especially for family-oriented suburban areas.
It’s what you heard…really expensive. There are some good things about it that justify somewhat of a premium, but not that much. Sales appear to be down, but so far sellers seem to be hanging on rather than “giving it away”.
If you want to commute from a “family-oriented suburban area” out east, you can buy a lot cheaper. Having made that commute for a few years, I now choose a lower standard of living with no commute (renting a townhome in Boulder at 1/200 purchase price while I wait for things to shake out).
Kent,
Boulder’s pretty spendy still . . . and the homes are mostly old, crappy things IMO. Boulder has been “no growth” for quite some time, so you have a few tear downs, some condos - all pretty expensive. New construction in outlying areas (Louisville, Niwot, Berthoud, Westminster, etc.) are much more affordable and there is plenty of selection/inventory. Still close enough that the commute isn’t bad - it’s what a lot of Boulder workers do. In all, it’s an awesome area for outdoorsy people and free spirits (check out Pearl Street if you visit there).
Sharon Foxworthy was among those seeking help after payments on her family’s mortgages adjusted this month from about $2,400 to more than $3,000. The family met its March mortgage payment by skipping other bills, but needs to refinance quickly to avoid foreclosure.”
“‘We are gasping for air,’ Foxworthy said. ‘Why can’t I connect with someone who can give me real answers?’”
Talk to your cousin Jeff. He might have real answers. I can try. Pack up. Get out. Jingle Mail. You gambled. You lost. There is no option but to leave. Foreclosure is the answer. No refi. Tough $h!t, etc.