Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For March 25, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
May 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Wholesale gasoline now cheaper than wholesale crude. Demand for diesel and heating oil continues strong, making gasoline less desirable & profitable.
“JPMorgan Chase’s sweetened bid for Bear Stearns, and the legal loophole that may have forced the acquiring bank’s hand, has drawn attention to the high-powered lawyers involved. The negotiations pitted the Wall Street law firm of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, which counselled JPMorgan, against three others, Bear’s attorneys at Sullivan & Cromwell, Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom and Cadwalader, and Wickersham & Taft. At issue was a clause that would have forced JPMorgan to guarantee Bear’s trades for a year under certain circumstances, even if the deal never closed.”
FT
The only solution is to pay multimillion dollar bonuses to all the culprits.
maybe the Fed could even chip in…
China does it cheaper!
The Chinese regulatory agencies would use bullets.
From the NY Times: “In an action almost unprecedented in takeover history, JPMorgan bought 39.5 percent of Bear on the spot to ensure that it would have close to a majority of the votes to approve the deal. That agreement completely disregards New York Stock Exchange’s rules that prevent anyone from buying more than 20 percent of [a] company without a shareholder vote. Other parts of the new agreement either stretch the rules or disregard years of precedent in Delaware, where both banks are incorporated. Of course, all this rule-bending was done with the tacit, if not outright, approval of the federal government.”
They should have used “We the People” legal services or that on line legal service pushed by the guy who defended OJ. (Shipirro?).
sometimes lawyers are worth the outrageous hourly rates they’re charging these days
BS’s attourneys earned their keep and arguably, JPMs didn’t. Apparantly JPM was trapped by a clause in the agreement over the weekend which kept them on the hook even if the deal didn’t go through. And of course this sort of last minute deal just might be characterized as a great lawyer employment program, since everyone will be trying to figure out if they should sue now.
not “if”, “who”
lol
Wachtell’s malpractice carriers likely have been put on notice by now. They’ll just pick up the tab when it’s all said and done.
Wonder how that happened. Surely they didn’t have young associates reviewing the documents.
Wonder how that happened? A rush job over a weekend, fueled by pizza and with too little sleep. Could have happened to anyone under those conditions.
With a deal like that, you have a dozen attorneys review the documents to catch mistakes, just like an IPO.
Not to mention the fact that the guys signing the documents should have read the first draft and every single redline–that was a major business point that should not have been missed.
Let the finger pointing begin.
Not at $600+ bucks an hour. No excuse
Maybe they hired the 2 for 1 lawyers, from Dominos?
My last post on this topic didn’t go through. I agree with TX Chick (although I think her rate is probably low). When companies go public, they have TEAMS of people reading through the documents to make sure there are no typos.
In this case, not only the attorneys dropped the ball, but the business folks, who should have read every word of the agreement, and every redline to pick up on any changes to what they read.
Since the deal was brokered with the Fed’s seal of approval, everyone assumed that the deal would go through at $2 and Wachtell probably considered such an outcome too remote or impossible to merit much worry. Potentially a multimillion (billion?) dollar mistake, but when that provision got placed into the sixth draft that went out at 3:00 a.m. Sunday, it didn’t seem like such a bad idea with everyone well into their Mountain Dew high.
You’ve worked at a big firm, right? These screwups are far more commonplace than ever gets admitted outside of a malpractice suit. Had the deal closed at $2, no one would’ve been any the wiser.
The deal was done like a Sub Prime loan! They have plenty of experience in doing quick mortages why not a quick deal!
Where’s the malprac- JPM lawyers missing that clause? Please educate me…
So its not only FB’s who don’t read the documents through?
Wonder how that happened? A rush job over a weekend, fueled by pizza and with too little sleep. Could have happened to anyone under those conditions
Do NOT forget they probably had Guests from the Emperors club or some other “gentlemans club”.
That is what I think happened with pizza, beer, and high fallutin hijinx.
JPM handles my companies 401k plans.
Think there might be any future problems that aren’t already there?
nahhhhhhhhh.
I feel very secure.
Not.
Hedge Ledge?
The other theory of course is that JPM knew what was in the agreement - the partial transcript I saw of the conference call they (JPM) did on Sunday indicated so.
It could be that the provision was left in as a ‘fail-safe’ that would allow them to back out of the deal as needed, and certainly that seems to be the jist of what Yves at naked captialism is posting, regarding loopholes and bad terms left in deals as a way out.
Foreclosure Rate Outpaces Sales by Lenders
Word Count: 348
Foreclosures are occurring at the highest rate in decades — and as a result, lenders are acquiring homes faster than they can sell them off.
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Pushovers at the Fed
March 25, 2008; Page A22
BULLETIN
U.S. HOUSING PRICES DOWN A RECORD 10.7% IN PAST YEAR: CASE-SHILLER
CAPITOL REPORT
More lipstick on Bear Stearns’ pig
Commentary: Fed has gone into partnership with J.P. Morgan
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:54 p.m. EDT March 24, 2008
“All a young man needs to make money is a printing press and a dream.” - moi
From the article:
“In keeping Bear Stearns solvent, the Federal Reserve acted to avert a domino effect it feared could spark a wider financial market meltdown. ”
I keep hearing about the domino effect. Is there any credible evidence of any other firms that would have been taken down? Or is this a bogus Vietnam-type “domino theory” storyline?
Look at the derivatives.
The article includes a suggestion that taxpayers be rewarded with a limit on the compensation of top JP Morgan execs. That seems far-fetched, but perhaps the total compensation to JPM or any of its employees from the LLC holding the BSC portfolio is what should be limited. I can envision a scenario where the LLC pays JPM or its employees more to administer the portfolio than the LLC is receiving in [mortgage payoffs minus Fed-interest]. Then sticks the Fed with the remaining loan-garbage when whatever value was there has been pretty much wrung out.
the D word:
Dysfunctional capital markets, frantic central banks, stressed-out consumers, fear and uncertainty—all are alarming echoes of the global economic cataclysm of the 1930s.
Which raises the inevitable question: Could another Great Depression be lurking over the horizon?
http://tinyurl.com/3aplwk
only if BIG GOV “saves us” like Japan and the New Deal
1921 they should teach this years econ history to HS kids
I don’t know. Can 10% of Ohioans really be on food stamps?
COLUMBUS — Amid a sluggish economy, a record 1.1 million Ohioans are getting food stamps, the state’s welfare agency said. That’s about 10 percent of the state’s population.
http://tinyurl.com/2cqoye
The Sav-a-lot is the cheapest food store in my area, easily 10% of shoppers use the “Food Stamp” debit card in that store., maybe more. The higher end food stores see little of those debit cards.
close italic
close italics.
I don’t know. Can 10% of Ohioans really be on food stamps?
What do you expect, for them to cut back on McDonald’s for lunch, cigarettes, cell phones.
When you have had those things your whole life, it is expected! Things can’t go down, people have lived only good times since 1981 and it is a problem when you can’t spend as much!
RE:What do you expect, for them to cut back on McDonald’s for lunch, cigarettes, cell phones.
You forgot the Lotto tickets.
You also forgot the $150 pair of Nikes…
Should we include client 9 type activities
Food Stamp Debit Card - a sore subject for me with all the abuse in California. I see illegals buying fresh shrimp, fresh fish, lobster and steak. Nice to know, they are eating like royalty, while the middleclass (on the capitalism tier), aren’t. Gotta love socialism. But if Ohio’s unemployment justifies socialism, I say feed Americans first. Most of those folks paid into the system.
One small ray of sun with the debit card. With the old stamps you used to get change. Iknow people who send a passle of kids to get a soda or small thing, then gather all the change to buy smokes. At least that is done and over.
thankfulrenter
That’s a worthwhile point. Thank you.
The debit cards also have a cash value limit, lobster will use up too much credit too fast, unless your appetite is very small.
But what they do now with the debit cards, is buy food for someone else, and they in turn pay them cash for it. So they still get their Cig & Lottery money. There’s always a way around the system. I get behind someone with a food debit card at least several times a month at Wal Marts.
True enough. But 2-3 anchor babies in a 2 bedroom apt (2 illegal mothers, let’s say) and you can share the food.
Add tax free income,and the food banks, and you aren’t hungry, if you buy Lobster. Add section 8 housing, free medical, cash (California -Cash Assitance Program, i.e. “CAP”), and its party time, compliments of the sucker taxpayer.
By far the biggest recipients of ’socialism’ in our society are obvious to everyone. Not the poor migrant worker or the ghetto dwelling poor person. They’re small potatoes compared to the banks and the military hardware companies. Can’t let the ‘workers’ go without their $750 dollar brandies.
There will be about a billion people with foodstamps at the farmers’ market starting right about now. For some reason WIC only lets them into the farmars for a part of the year, which seems on the monstrously stingy side. It helps me deal with the crowds if I remember that at least these people are getting something edible and life-sustaining to eat and feed their children, which they wouldn’t be if they were spending the scrip at Walmart.
Go to Disneyland on any weekend and you will be amazed at the number of illegals enjoying themselves at the Magic Kingdom. Single day passes cost $60+. When you include meals, etc. it can easily hit $100 a day per person.
No wonder California is bankrupt.
One more comment. I was on foodstamps a few years ago. As soon as I was able I was off them. while shopping I always kept in mind that it was money from everyone else around me in the store and shopped accordingly. There are some that abuse, but there are bankers and traders and brokers abusing too. Small joke, but why should the poor not emulate the rich who aubse? Swine are swine. Anyways back to the original point I was going to try to make. I cannot and do not believe that I was the only food stamper that shopped frugally and wisely and gratefully. It is easy to generalize and gosh knows I like a good righteous grumpfest also but I wonder if the people who used food stamps like I did just dont hit everyones radar like abusers do and therefore people think the abusers outnumber the careful when it really is the other way around?
I think you guys are mis-informed as to the real reason for food stamps. Food stamps are just another way of providing tax dollars to farmers and ranchers(and now fishermen??).
Without food stamps, in times of recession, people would buy less bread, milk, cereal, steaks, etc. Heck, in good times, poor people would buy less of these items. Food stamps are a way to guarantee that demand for these items at a minimum threshold acceptable to farmers &ranchers.
Remember the welfare cheese of the Regain era? Buying cheese and then giving it away to keep the dairy farmers in business? Was that really necessary??
True, and thank you for being responsible. We sold our McMansion, and live in an area, where the illegals suck the system dry, and drive new SUV’s. I see their abuse firsthand.
I had a relative on welfare, single mother, who went on to a better life, like you. When entitlements are used as a lifestyle, it infuriates me. Its a bridge for Americans, over troubled waters, not the lottery.
I grew up poor, and we never stole anything. We were taught honesty and accountability.
Regarding Disneyland- Thanks for the post. We assumed that was the case. We can’t afford Disneyland anymore, so how are illegas affording it?
I cannot and do not believe that I was the only food stamper that shopped frugally and wisely and gratefully.
My mom worked at a food bank. She said that the vast majority of folks that came in were quiet deserving: Good folks that had one or more bad strokes of luck/ choice of action. Many who received help would later donate back when times were better.
She viewed the folks that were perhaps less than deserving as a small tax on getting help to those that needed it. There is no perfectly efficient system.
“Go to Disneyland on any weekend and you will be amazed at the number of illegals enjoying themselves at the Magic Kingdom.”
yeah thats after a week of drudgery doing all the menial jobs in LA that the entitled ones wouldn’t dare do themselves.the maids the dishwashers the gardeners the janitors the builders the rooftop tar applicators the nannies the busboys the fastfood servers-in other words the ones that make LA function. One question, how do you know these people are illegals? just asking.
i do understand your point about lifestyle vs tmeporary, and I do agree. I figure it comes down to understanding where the money comes from. Too many people, poor,middle and upper, who think of govt money as free money.
The first few times I used them (back during the era of booklets of coupons) I wanted to crawl under a rock and kept saying inside ‘not forever, not forever, feed the kids, not forever’
I fugure people who dont understand that the money fairy doesnt visit the gov every night and do not see a life without subsidy in their future dont think/shop more carefully.
thankfulrenter-
I have the utmost respect for you. You are of a good moral compass, and are logical and objective.
We are part of the melting middleclass, and someday, as our medical inurance hits $1,000-mo out of pocket, we might need a bridge too. Outsourcing has hit us hard.
You have a nice day. You deserve it.
Melvin F Hoppe-
Ah, if they are working for peanuts, how are they affording The Magic Kingdom?
Savings? Not likely. They are enjoying the taxpayer’s $.
Secondly, speaking Spanish in public, pretty much says illegal. Americans of Spanish decent, speak English, and don’t use the ground as a trash can.
I see where you’re coming from.
Reading through these comments re “foodstamps” is kinda disheartening…presumptuous, actually.
One steak grilled and sliced thin then mixed with two pounds of beans and fresh vegetables provides a much cheaper per-portion meal than most packaged garbage. Ditto one lobster and rice (soup, anyone?) I’d much rather see someone checking out fresh food (meats, fruit, vegetables,) with a food card than the cookies, cereals, candy you seem to expect them to use. The program, as noted, is actually a subsidy for corporate ag…better we use it here in the “homeland,” to feed those little future taxpayers, don’t you think?
Given the coming economy, I should think a little more empathy might be in order.
As for the “illegals” at Disneyland. They have these people called “tourists,” see? They come to the US from all over the planet. Some of them speak Hispanic languages, and a good number of them are better off than you and I. (Been to any Mexico City suburbs lately?)
One question, how do you know these people are illegals? just asking.
I lived 12 years in Mexico an speak Spanish fluently. I over hear their conversations while in line, and while it is true that not all Spanish speakers at DL are illegals, many are.
Also, drop the preconceived notion that the only work illegals do is low paid work. Many are skilled and have good paying jobs. I personally know a woman who works as a school counselor in LAUSD, making a handsome salary, and she is illegal. Here training (psychologist) was in Mexico.
Ah, if they are working for peanuts, how are they affording The Magic Kingdom?
Savings? Not likely. They are enjoying the taxpayer’s $.
To be fair, they probably have annual passes, which significantly reduces the cost per day.
Just want to say a word in defense of illegals’ visiting Disneyland. D’land’s requirements for “proving” SoCal residency are very lax (I did it by showing Caltech ID), and an ANNUAL pass for SoCal residents is quite cheap - less than two days’ admission IIRC. You do have to sneak in a sandwich in your purse if you want to eat without being ripped off.
Sorry just noticed “in Colorado” posted same thing
guess it is illegal bashing day, when the originators are who we Elect and those in office since reagan.
so, we bash each other, and those who are really illegally here, but we do not seem to go after those who go to our schools on “school visas’ and then overstay. “We” just seem to bash those who have a different skin color, and yet we continually grin,scoff, stomp but do not do anything about the Robber Barons that are the Fed, the WS and all those other CEO crooks.
Our legal system gets the creeps in white shirts off, and then our police arrest “Mary Ann” who is 71 from Gilligans island for “pot”. Which turns out to be erroneous, but we all let the wealthy WS and CEO and gov/george off scott free.
This post probably won’t go through either today. All seem to be disappearing.
Be careful going up the ladder of inference…gets more unstable the higher you go. It’s quite easy to make assumptions based upon your observations of people….often times you can be wrong! Sure there are people abusing, but don’t assume everyone is.
Re: illegals at Disneyland
Supposing they are illegals, aren’t you glad they are spending there money here (and keeping those American “cast members” on the job) instead of just wiring it to Mexico or El Salvador?
And besides, Disneyland sucks.
And besides, Disneyland sucks.
15,000,000 annual visitors might disagree with you.
Its a good thing though that many people hate the place (well, maybe not for Disney). The place is crowded enough as it is.
“I lived 12 years in Mexico an speak Spanish fluently. I over hear their conversations while in line, and while it is true that not all Spanish speakers at DL are illegals, many are.”
Interesting. Those “many” you are hearing must be having some really outlandish conversations.
“Hola, Rositaaaaaa, como esta, que pasaaaa, did you illegally convert your illegally acquired food sssstamps eento dinero to go on the spinning teacups like meeeeeeeeeeeee? Mwaaaaa ha ha ha haaaaaaaaaa!”
“Bienvenuta a Deessneylan’ Mariaaaaaa, gayss wha’, I lef’ my gringa bitch baby back een the boss lady Taurus een the parkeen lot, an’ now here I yam on Senor Toad’s Wil’ Ride, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!”
“Oye, Juan, esse, we are eeleegals, amirite? Dap me double, hermano, for eet is so fun to be standeeng in a longass line at deesneyland with no green card I cannot contain myself and must shout it to the skies that all might know of our bueno fortunadaaaaaa.”
“Jose, let me confide in you, amigo, as we await the Haunted Mansion cart to andele. My fren’, I could not decide to spen’ this funny money on crank or lobster or nuevo reems for the Escalade. Finally I come here to Deesneylan’. Eess mos’ best way to piss off most reactionary gringos at once, nomesayn?”
No, but they sometimes talk about how they just arrived a few months ago and how great it is here. Imagine us, going to Disneyland
Oh, I see. In Mexican Spanish “we just arrived” means “we’re here illegally” and “it’s so nice here” means “we are a bunch of cheats” and “imagine us going to Disneyland” means “hahaha, we are ripping off every US citizen in this line for Pirates of the Carribbean.” We didn’t learn those translations in 6th grade, but I think we were taught Castillian Spanish. There are so many dialects, it can get confusing.
Guess that explains why Ohio is such a political bell weather. God, America has become such a pathetic welfare state.
Yeah a welfare state for the the corporations, I agree with you.
there is a choice
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120640701463560977.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
I might hold my nose and vote for him now that the media has effectively weeded out any decent candidates, and left us with crappy, crappier, and crappiest. I’m a registered republicrat soon to be an independant.
We didn’t leave the Republican Paty, it left us. This administration = Neo-Con, Fascist, Wall Street, Globalist pigs.
Being an Independent has its problems, but I don’t vote against my best interests anymore. Independent, is the way to go.
Yep, another election, and nobody worth voting for.
–
“I’m a registered republicrat soon to be an independant.”
I was way ahead of you in that conversion. I no longer vote for Federal level offices. Lesser of the two evils is not good enough.
Jas
I wish I felt he was physically or mentally up for the job. It’s not age, Nader and Paul are in the same age bracket. However, they are vigorous and alert. This poor guy doesn’t seem to be either.
“I’m a registered republicrat soon to be an independant.”
Ditto!
Jesus, Tx, every time i think i like you you cough up a big slimy hairball like that one. McCain in bushier than Bush. He wants to keep fighting wars forever. Anybody had a look lately at the percentage of the Federal budget is defense compared to what part is food stamps? We probly spend more in a day in Iraq than Ohio spends all year on food stamps.
Agree with catspit. 95 more years in Iraq but no money for poor people in Ohio? McCain won’t get elected dog catcher.
Besides, have you heard his great idea of improving the economy? Bring Greenspan back…
The further we get into this recession/depression the more people will leave the republican party. Suddenly gay marriage and government mandated morality will seem less important than economic issues, like say putting food on the table. At somepoint people will ask, why is it that gas costs 6 bucks a gallon and bread 6 bucks a loaf. They’ll figure out that corporate welfare tax breaks for the elite, and the war have all been paid for via inflation the ugliest tax of all.
I can grok the theme about the silent generation - my parents are of that generation, and I appreciate where they are coming from and what sort of contribution they have made. Generational politics is pretty weak beer when it comes to choosing a candidate, though.
Does Paul Volcker’s endorsement of Obama count for anything in this crowd?
Those of us who understood this a long time ago were always aghast that people voted against their own economic self-interest for a bunch of “side shows”.
I always love the slant of the Wall Street Journal.
“America rose up “in righteous wrath” against history’s most evil villains.”
Our alley, Joseph Stalin killed more millions of people than Hitler or Hirohito ever dreamed.
In Ukraine, alone, the great Socialist starved over 11 million people. There were more emaciated, and starved people there than in all the “death camps” of Germany.
Yet, the I believe it was the WSJ that consistantly held out SSSR as the great triumph of human social engineering. Wrote glowing articles about the great achievements of Stalin. What a crock.
I think the total body count between Stalin, Mao tse-tung, and Pol Pot regimes number around 110 million people killed. Where is the righteous indignation??
“Harvest of Sorrow” - good book on Stalin’s Terror Famines. The true death tolls will never be known.
Diogenes valid point and wsj is consistently on side of money When it suits them, and now they want via the owner, to make a villian out of someone else. What I mean, is that while we had ussr to rail against the american people could be easily moved from one spot to the other, and now that we no longer have that and the us is ignoring chinas human rights/environment and very fast growing expansion worldwide, wsj and the ptb, are desperate to make others beside their greedy selves look scary again.
IMHO.
This post probably won’t make it through either. Test
test.
surprise, it made it through. test.yea!
“The young need old men. They need men who are not ashamed of age, not pathetic imitations of themselves.”
– Peter UstinovCindy McCain
The guy’s out of touch, and he’s running on a war platform. Bang that drum buddy. I will never vote for him. I think much of the younger generation feels the way I do. Get rid of these cronies.
There was a time I respected McCain, and largely agreed with him. Today, he’s got Phil Gramm has his chief economic advisor - one of the prime architects of our current horror show.
As Andrew Leonard said the other day in Salon, “Greed does not self-regulate well.” Tho no rational person wants to see what remains of our economy strangled by ludicrous regulatory cat’s cradles, it’s beyond question a strong framework must be put in place if only to restore confidence in the American way of doing business……as in, the many honorable businessmen.
McCain frankly sounds somewhat senile to my ears, and I’m roughly 10 yrs younger than he is. I’m concerned about anyone at his age taking that job at this time in history. Then there’s Leiberman, joined at McCain’s hip, who looks to me to be the likely choice for VP. Lord, give me strength.
Hillary? Between the two of them, I’d vot for Ron Paul. I refuse to support either she or McCain…..if only for their disgusting stances on the GWOT.
Obama? Sigh. Probably a nice man, for a lawyer (that was for you tx), but qualified for this job? His “policies”? How tough is it to relocate permanently - say to someplace organized, like Zimbabwe?
This is more like 1984 than 1930.
–
“Dysfunctional capital markets…”
When Musharraf was in DC, next to “my friend” GW Bush, and asked about democracy he said that Pakistan had a dysfunctional democracy and he was the true democrat to restore functional democracy.
We need a financial dictator to cure our “dysfunctional capital markets.”
Jas
A Great Depression Redux? What I understand about the GD is that there was a credit crisis brought on by the Fed tightening rates after 1929 Stockmarket Crash, the Smoot-Hawley Act started a international trade war at the wrong time, and there were runs on banks that caused the banking system to fail. So, the Fed tightened credit at the wrong time for the right reason, Congress did something stupid, banks couldn’t prevent runs and insure their depositors money. Could it happen again? I can only say that history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes. What will cause a GD like event? The equivalents of a credit crunch, a trade war, and runs on businesses that act like banks. We now have the beginnings of a credit crunch, the NAFTA trade war is starting, and Bear Sterns and follow-on events.
Roidy
globalflation:
MEXICO CITY - If you’re seeing your grocery bill go up, you’re not alone.
From subsistence farmers eating rice in Ecuador to gourmets feasting on escargot in France, consumers worldwide face rising food prices in what analysts call a perfect storm of conditions.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23781864/
Sure puts a lot of things into the proper perspective.
Buck bounce over?
March 25 (Bloomberg) — The dollar fell the most against the euro in two weeks on speculation industry reports will show U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a five-year low and the housing slump deepened.
http://tinyurl.com/3ap6v4
Perhaps the rest of the planet is not all that keen on investing in
U.S. residential real estate.
Wha…? Europeans and them Asians and such must be ‘tards! They prefer to live in freezingcold stone groundhuts built in the 1400s when they could live here in snugglywarm, professionally insulated brand newly constructed skyhomes and eat boiledmilk cheese and factory bread and meat. Their movies can’t afford any good explosions and plus they all have writing on the bottom part. You can’t tell the bad guys from the good guys in the movies because everybody smokes and they all hold their cigarettes gay: I learned all about it on _King of the Hill_.
The only foreginers that still have the sense to know this is the greatest country in the world are the ones that come for the food stamps and gum up the WalMart line.
They would rather sit around in their little socialist dump countries and eat this stuff http://www.timesonline.co.uk/eshop/times_selects/food/article3521514.ece than move to a free country where it’s illegal.
My daughter had a sampler tray of artisanal cheeses in Switzerland (Bern) on the afternoon of her 21st birthday. They played “La Vie En Rose” and it was just as good as it gets.
Bern is so freaky! That crazy river that goes like a hundred miles an hour! I was only there for one night and ate no cheese, artisanal or otherwise, but I had some in France on the same trip. The dopey book, _Heidi_, became instantly understandable to me with the first bite. Heidi was all sad because she had to move into town and eat rich-people food after hanging out in the alps with her grandfather the shepherd listening to the wind in the pine trees and eating nothing but bread and cheese. That book made all this noise about how great it is to eat bread and cheese. Here I am a culturally impoverished American child who has no idea what either item even is. I was thinking Roman Meal and Cracker Barrel and wondering what was the big deal. Decades later I finally discovered what bread was supposed to be and what cheese was supposed to be and what that nutsy Heidi chick was crying about.
I say American cheese nutshells the entire problem with America, but if that’s tough to swallow (har!), then you should at least be able to admit it shows you why rich furriners are not going to reinflate the real estate bubble for us.
Er … there is artisanal American cheese and bread as good as anything I’ve eaten in Europe.
It’s a little harder to get admittedly, and probably pricy as well but cheaper than an airline ticket.
Admittedly, a few moronic rules have to be bent but it’s easy to get around them (”members” can buy unpasteurized milk, etc.)
Let’s be at least a little fair.
Good bread. Most people these days don’t know what really good bread tastes like. My favorite is the old fashion corn bread. Please, without sugar! My neighbor makes me a pan once a month in the summer, I mow her grass in return. It is absolutely wonderful, made with fresh ground corn meal from the local farmers market plus other ingredients she buys there (she won’t give out the reicipe, got it from her grandmother).
They’re not “rules,” they’re laws. Dairymen lose their dairies for breaking the law to sell raw milk–I just now read about some guy who lost all his cows because he was selling milk to a cowshare–the exact thing you describe. Cheese, forget it. You cannot get unpasteurized soft cheese. Imported brie and so on are all specially made i.e. ruint for the American market. Now they are trying to make unpasteurized hard cheese illegal which is comPLETEly insane because there is zero risk of listeria from Parmesan et al. Cheddar has already fallen victim and it, too, is risk-free. When parmesan goes I swear I’m bailing on this place if I have to stow away on a tramp steamer. Of course, that’s what I said I’d do if W won again in 2004. I don’t even know what a tramp steamer is, actually. Help me out, people, how do you stow away on a tramp steamer? I need my cheese.
Kandy, I’ve been to Bern as well and it is a beautiful city. After a few weeks in Europe, however, my attitude is I never need to see any bread or cheese again! Sure, the bread and cheese iare great, but I can only eat bread and cheese so much before I get sick of it. I also like spicy food, and the blandness is overpowering at times. Paprika is considered “hot.” I ate some terrible pizza at a cafe simply because I saw they had a bottle of Siracha sauce on the counter. I cursed myself for not bringing a little pocket-sized bottle of Tabasco with me.
My girlfriend is Asian. She prefers rice to bread and eats very little dairy. She thought the food in Europe was inedible since she never eats the two things that were the main component of every single meal we had there.
Well… Okay, you have a good point on the spicy food. I have to admit if you like it hot you’re way better off eating in the US than in Germany or England, for instance. And plus the cool thing about here is that there’s all different stuff to eat, whereas you don’t get the melting pot factor in other countries. And I never touch bread anyway since I read _Good Calories, Bad Calories_ and discovered that it’s deadly poison.
On the other hand, I also think that if you’re not local the food is bound to be bad anywhere you go because the locals will try to cater to what they think the auslanders like. In the local Mexican place down the street if you’re not Mexican you have to beg to be given actual Mexican food because they think you want everything bland with sour cream on it.
And I can never bend on cheese. Never! The cheese situation in the USA is execrable and it must change. If we can liberalize cheese law, maybe we can usher in an American cultural rennaissance and with it the tide of Euros that will save our endangered realtors.
krona krash:
March 25 (Bloomberg) — Iceland’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to 15 percent at an unscheduled meeting after a slump in the krona threatened to fuel inflation that is already running at more than twice the bank’s target.
http://tinyurl.com/2wllpa
Everbank used to offer CDs denominated in Icelandic Krona for a 11% yield (only 3 month available). Now they only offer 5%. Pity because this move might just stem the tide of inflation and strengthen their currency.
Recognizing Instability…
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig9/fairfax2.html
Good article. Thanks.
Small Firms Find Credit Is Tightening
http://tinyurl.com/ysouj9
Commercial banks like Bank of America insist there has been no change in their lending programs. Even so, a bank spokeswoman, Tara Burke, said, “Obviously we are being prudent and ensuring that we take the right risks and get paid appropriately for the risks we take.”
Better late than never. Lending procedures seek to be going from overly lax to overly prudent in a very short time period, which will affect those even good credit risks.
Wells Fargo told me yesterday I could not get a credit line without more than 25% equity in my home, and then only up to 75% combined LTV. I have an 812 FICO. That is a far cry from the 90% CLTV they offered me in 2002! I really don’t need an equity line, but wanted to see their reaction. He said the only people they are giving HELOC’s these days are the retired homeowners in Sun City, because they typically paid all cash for their homes! This is in Sacramento, CA.
RE: Bank of America
“Consolidation loans” @ 9.99%.
KISS MY AZZ, BofA.
The market is getting whiplash cause the banks slammed on the brakes, but we’re still not travelling at safe and prudent speeds IMHO.
gold:
March 25 (Bloomberg) — Gold rose the most in more than two weeks in London after the dollar fell before a U.S. consumer confidence report that may indicate slower economic growth, spurring demand for precious metals as an alternative to stocks.
“We’re going to see new highs in gold above $1,030 within the next two or three months,” said Robin Wilkin, London-based head of commodities and currency technical analysis at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “I’d be surprised if we just race to new highs.”
http://tinyurl.com/374p53
Not just Gold
DAP is now being sold in the world market at a four-figure price never seen before. In the US, PhosChem sold 6,000 tonnes of DAP and 10,000 tonnes of DAP/MAP at $1,000 per tonne fob this week to buyers in Central America for May-June shipment. Last January, DAP was ruling at $300 per tonne.
Very interesting WBBR bloomberg report this morning. Tom Keane stated the BS takeover is to form an RTC type organization to liquidate RE assets with BlackRock as administrator. I’m sure there is more to follow.
Welcome to 1990.
U.S. Officials Warn of Scams Targeting Homeowners
http://tinyurl.com/3dx27m
Typically, prosecutors said, the scam worked this way: Sales agents for the ring contacted homeowners through mailings, offering rescue plans to those who appeared on lists used by banks and credit agencies to show owners near foreclosure. When the homeowners sought help, sales agents would steer them into a plan that called for owners to put an “investor” on the home’s title.
In exchange, the homeowner would pay rent to the investor, typically a sum smaller than the original mortgage payment. In reality, the investor was usually an associate or family member of the ringleaders or someone recruited via the Internet. The convoluted paperwork often gave the investor the right to replace the homeowner on the title.
Looks like there will be plenty of work on both the criminal and investigative sides of mortgage fraud.
well these mopes were duped on the way into their American dream and duped on the way out as well
i have heard alot about this scam lately
put the deed in our (straw buyer) and buy it back at a later date
and of course keep making payments (which they pocket) and poof foreclosure with nothing at all
there is a nice place in hell for these dirtbags
These kinds of scams only operate when greed exists: we routinely hear people in underwater/short sale situations asking us how much money they can get for moving out of their house.
My jaw used to drop, now I tell them that since they’re not paying their mortgage, they should be able to save $10K in the year before they have to move. It’s the new equity.
frank the problem is the people have no idea what savings is and will not see the point
no mortgage payment = more consumer crap
Just imagine the killer plasma TV you could buy with 10k! I mean, if FB’s are going to suffer the stigma of being renters again, they might as well soothe the distressed psyche with a new home theater system.
a TV the size of all montana in their 2br rental. Turn those speakers on a little louder, I can’t hear it next door!
The once booming City of Austin is now slowing down:
http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/03/25/0325budget.html
The city’s budget is based on a 7.6 percent increase in sales tax revenue compared with last year’s. Through January, sales tax revenue had grown 4.7 percent, compared with the same period the year before.
Don’t overplay it. Many places would kill for 4.7 precent growth. And house prices here are on their own cycle - prices have not fallen much at all.
Austin is unique from Texas, it is probably one of the true “it’s special here” places. It crashes, but own own time frame. See also: Seattle
It was special. Not so much anymore.
“It was special. Not so much anymore.”
I agree. When I left Austin in 2006, I had the feeling that the city was transmorgrifying in to just another Houston or Dallas. I mean, sure, there are cozy pockets of the city that retain the character of the old Austin, and some local gems like Barton Springs and Deep Eddy are still goin’ strong, but the city is quickly becoming one big sprawl and thus losing its sense of place that made Austin “special”.
It’s funny, though, ’cause I get lots of people here in D.C. telling me they’ve heard amazing things about how great Austin is, and I have to tell them that Austin is really over-rated.
Compared to D.C. it’s paradise.
I don’t think Austin so handily beats DC. DC has more diverse restaurants, far better public transportation, and great museums. Austin has some good Tex-Mex, a lot of college students and live music. I think it really depends on your definition of paradise.
I agree with Pasadena. DC has a more job opportunities, better salaries/wages, 4 seasons (some people like the change of pace from Austin’s 10 months of 90 degree plus heat), and DC’s very close to the Shenandoah Mountains and other great parks….plus it’s within easy driving distance to a lot of other interesting cities along the east coast (NYC, Philadelphia)….there’s not another city within 1,000 miles of Austin where I could imagine having a fun time….
Santa Fe, NM is the old Austin.
90 degree heat is nuthing.
But when in that area, I asked why tx women get all dressed up and don’t look like they are sweating like the rest of us, and they said, tx womin don’t sweat, they radiate charm.
hehehe.
Well, next time it is 120 here in the shade, I will just radiate too!
Here is a personal tale from South Orange County. My wife knits custom baby blankets and booties and stuff for people to busy to learn to knit, but must have the handmade custom blanket/etc for their grandchild/etc. Its good money, working out to around $20/hr plus materials for times when she is sitting in the car or infront of the TV. It used to be people wanted the blanket, jacket, mittens, booties and cap. Now its just the blankets and caps. Since its all cash upfront and she has a contract that was drawn-up by a friend she always gets paided.
Well the wife also makes handmade lace (I know crazy). She has someone that contracted her for her daughters wedding to make a handmade lace veil of a 4×6 size. The wife is about a third of the way done making the thing and mother-of-the-bride shows up last night demanding her money back. My wife tries to explain that its already been paided for and the contract lays out everything. The lady then left and called the cops on the wife. The cops show and the wife explains everything, the woman now demands to have the veil right now. My wife gave here the whole thing including the block and the bobbins, which the woman loaded in to here BMW. The wife calls someone who knows this woman and finds out she is a realtor that’s hard up for money. I was pissed that wife gave her the bobbins, when the wife told me she made a few thousand for doing nothing. Way to go wife.
Thanks for the personal stories! That handmade lace one is totally great. I love it when morons shoot themselves in the foot. Not only is she out the money, she doesn’t even have the finished lace.
But she has her “pride” LOL!
How big of low-life can you possibly be to call the cops on somebody who knits baby blankets and wedding veils.
I never ceased to amazed at the absolute baseness of people.
Apparently it didn’t dawn on the idiot that she should unload the BMW instead of worrying about an unfinished lace blanket. Typical.
Thousand dollars for a veil? For one friggin day? I bet they get divorced before the mother pays off all the bills. ( if she even tries, that is)
I just shake my head when bride adn wedding stuff is mentioned around me. Other females think I am a freak at times because I am sooooo stonecold about “their special day”
Shoot, want to dress like a princess? dressup on holloween.
RE: Shoot, want to dress like a princess? dressup on holloween
LMAO…perfect.
Perfect, and on halloween you can carry around a magic wand.
I can’t count how many expensive, egocentric weddings we’ve been to, that ended in divorce (after chidren), because both parties were spoiled brats.
Frugal “Special Day” - married decades
Yes, that’s me and my wife. Went frugal, had a ton of fun or at least the guests did. I was getting my pix taken and shaking hands all day. Married 21 years this year. Had a nice, frugal anniversary this year. Went to small restaurant and spent $75 on dinner. She’s my kind of girl.
Roidy
I’m disgusted too at the waste for weddings. People are just plain stupid. I bought my dress at the mall prom dress on sale) half price. It was a full length white victorian gown with ruffles and delicate lace. $40 in 1977. We got married in my parents back yard and the reception with cake cost my parents $150. Immediate family plus a few favorite relatives. No way has inflation gone from then until now that a wedding is minimum $20,000. People have no brains. God, have a $5000 wedding and put $15k down on a house. You don’t even get enough gifts to make up for the cost of wedding, plus half the stuff is things you’ll never use.
There are absolutely gorgeous wedding dresses out there in the resale market- if you don’t find one you like completely, take it to a seamstress and have it customized!!! A very wealthy friend of mine complimented me only once on a blouse I was wearing at a special function. I still believe she thinks I was messing with her when I told her I bought it at a thrift shop! Shoot, some of us remember all of the stories about Jackie O. sending her clothes to consignment shops for resale. Sniff not at “used”.
Better yet, get a job at Disneyland. They’ll pay you to do it and provide the costume
Wanna bet that the BMW was leased?
I doubt she has considered the irony of her being a RENTER…
“… she is a realtor that’s hard up for money.”
FWIW - I was in a retail establishment over the weekend in San Francisco and saw a realtor try to use three different credit cards.
I was in line behind someone at Christmas and she had to pull out the third card too before the machine would take it. Guess what, buying Christmas gifts.
How did you know it was a realtor? Was it the constant repeating of “Its a great time to buy a house” that gave it away?
Does your wife have a website? I wanna look at the lace. A 4×6 veil is a LOT of tatting. It ought to cost about as much as a BMW, and would of course be the smarter buy, since a veil wouldn’t depreciate like a car. Unless the bride got frosting or pink champagne on it or something.
I sorry she doesn’t have a website. The veil was a kite shape in a nice white color, its actually a really pretty design. I rather not say what the wife gets paid but if you look on the web it comparible.
KingSlug - strange but true, I also have a little knitting business!
Let me know if your wife ever needs piecework done.
Can’t say I’ve ever mastered lacework (wow…), or crochet for that matter, but I can knit just about anything.
advertisement in Desert Sun is looking for handmade knitting etc for children’s store opening up. They need inventory.
Yes, if wife has website, please link.
Weird, all my friends knit and none of them can make any money off it. It pays worse than min. wage. I guess we don’t know enough rich, busy people. (Lots of idle rich and idle poor.)
Some friends are looking to become test knitters, after getting burned on doing projects for others, clearing maybe $50 for hours upon hours upon hours of work. (& these two are very fast, very skilled knitters) When you can get $9/hr on campus it doesn’t make any sense.
You have to remember that - even for ‘hand made’ knitting - you’re competing with overseas, where the rate per hour is much less than ‘acceptable’ in the US.
‘Hand made’ just means that it wasn’t produced on a knitting machine, so most of the garments you see in stores with a ‘hand made’ label were actually done in the developing world by piece-work employees, who can do it for much less, and expect much less, than your average US worker.
I’ve had a few experiences with these ‘work from home’ people - in general, they expect it done more quickly and cheaply than is humanly possible (at least to make a living wage in the US on), otherwise it would make more sense for them to ship the work overseas.
IMHO - these places are not worth it. They often charge you a lot for the materials - which they insist you use, rather than buying your own - and often reject completed articles because it ‘wasn’t done right’. They don’t care - they’ve already made thier money by selling you the materials!
If you really want to do piecework, its better to find someone locally - go and check out thier store/outlet, and find out what thier policy is on substituting your own materials.
A better bet is to make stuff of your own design to sell locally. I make most of my money doing local craft markets, building up contacts through friends and family for bespoke work (did a lot of alpaca hats and scarves before xmas, when the CA weather was unseasonably cold), doing small conseignments for local stores and selling online at places like Etsy and eBay.
It takes more time and effort on your part than just doing piecework, but there is a surprisingly good market for hand made stuff - especially for baby & kid’s clothes and toys, as long as you don’t get ‘precious’ about the cost and price yourself out of the market ( the theme of HBB, so I am being, sort of, on topic here
).
Lots of people would like not to have to buy stuff like this from abroad, and a ‘handmade in the USA’ label is very attractive, but you always have to be aware that you have a lot of competition.
Can’t say I make a huge amount of money off of it, but I really enjoy knitting and creating my designs, and the sales at least pay for my materials. I’d be doing it anyway, and at least I get a pittance for my time.
Wow - was only intending on writing a couple of lines…. sorry.
PS: desertdweller - do you have a link to the ad you saw? I’d be interestd in checking it out.
I afraid the wife doesn’t need any help. My wife got started by donating “stitiches in the heart” for premies and babys at the hospital. I seriously believe karma will get you good or bad.
Comment by KingSlug -I’m afraid the wife doesn’t need any help
No problem, I totally understand. I find it very hard not to ’schmooze’, just a little, when I hear of fellow craftspeople.
Please convey my (slightly envious) admiration for her lace-making skill and my hopes that she finds even better bobbins than the ones she lost to the ‘Slapper in the Fancy Car bought with HELOC money’.
Another story about how awful the people of the OC are. Too many rats in a small cage.
she also has the bobbins to remind her of how stupid she is….(although, sadly, she probably already tossed them in the trash).
I agree: Way to go, wife!
Interest rates in South Africa are about to go through the 9% level, 3% over the government’s 3-6% inflation targeting band and nearly double the 5% inflation of a year ago. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on the SA Reserve Bank to up interest rates to 15%.
What is the electricity situation now? I heard a joke; ‘What is the difference between South Africa and the Titanic? The Titanic went down with her lights on.’
So how long until FIFA yanks the World Cup from SA? Time is running out, especially to find a substitute. Its still 2+ years away but the clock is ticking.
The last this happened Colombia bailed out and Mexico stepped in.
Currency crises usually start on the periphery and move to the center. Are we seeing the start of something like the Asian Contagion of the 90s? Iceland, South Africa…where next?
3 month cd’s will get you around 9% in New Zealand, in perhaps the shakiest of all carry trade markets…
those bs numbers come out yesterday and the dow is up almost 200 and everything is great we have turned the corner
it really is disgusting what the nar gets away with
and this weekend is the big open house 1st weekend for spring
how long can they prop this pig up?
Don’t get fooled by one day’s worth of white noise.
“Hooray, the bottom is in…!”
“Hooray, the bottom is in…!”
“Hooray, the bottom is in…!”
The MSM in the Bay Area was certainly excited with yesterday’s “white noise.”
Note that Diane Swonk was quoted extensively yesterday on the “good news” that housing could be turning around.
*****
Ah yes, let’s not forget that not long after the HBB began that the below was published - and today is the third anniversary!
“Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms”
The New York Times - March 25, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/25/business/25boom.html
“‘I just don’t think we have what it takes to prick the bubble,’ said Diane C. Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, who was an optimist during the 90’s. ‘I don’t think prices are going to fall, and I don’t think they’re even going to be flat.’”
“Premonitions of a bubble on the verge of popping do not ruffle those who are bullish on real estate. In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
‘South Florida,’ he said, ‘is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.’”
‘The MSM in the Bay Area was certainly excited with yesterday’s “white noise.”’
Morons will grasp at straws, as that is what morons do best.
Along the lines of bs numbers, when a transfer of title occurs during a foreclosure (property goes back to the bank)… is this counted as a sale on dataquick? If so, no wonder we are seeing a slight uptick in “sales” reported in this morning’s news.
Iraq Recession…
http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12572
There is no roof to gold because their is no floor to the dollar. In Zimbabwe gold is something like many millions of Zimbabwe dollars per ounce.
Gold is MONEY.
“There is no roof to gold because their is no floor to the dollar.”
Where do you get this, er, stuff?
80 on the USD index used to be the floor. What is the floor now?
Dunno.
Er, not to p*ss all over the goldistas parade but there is a roof on gold.
It’s called barter.
Gold will stop at whatever its worth is in the barter market — three chickens, twenty pounds of rice, eight pigs, whatever.
Pussycat:
I’ll offer you 10 grand for your opinion/attitude tomorrow.
He’s quoting Peter Schiff
Good person to quote though. He’s absolutely right about gold too. Gold bugs love Ben Bernanke.
The Triffin dilemma.
Are you saying the gold is vaultless?
Good for day:
bid to open 90 ($9000)
Gold Comex JUN 2012 1400 Call.
Nice!
Actually I’m still waiting for a fill from certain posters this board. (Hey! I’m paying 9 grand for your opinion!) It’s the _only_ option bid for the month/year so it will be quite public for a while. Admittedly, it’s not as good an offer as I made my dentist for his gold coins (2/06 150 per oz for 1000 strike price over 4 yr) - I did exercise the option earlier this month.
The WSJ capitulated on the global bubble issue on C1. Looks like Ben has knocked over another domino with all those overseas articles.
Also in the WSJ, lower prices are making housing affordable to the middle class, and non-profit housing groups can buy instead of building (they had been squeezed by rising construction costs).
Meanwhile, our transit system had provided all kinds of fare discounts even as city and state funds were cut off, based on dedicated real estate transfer taxes. But now…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/nyregion/25mta.html?_r=1&ref=nyregion&oref=slogin
with less officers joining the nypd and the economy struggling as well as employment crime may make a sharp comeback in nyc
the murder rate is up already this year
I’m not sure about street crime. Large areas of NYC have gentrified, and the poor are moving to the suburbs.
If you are talking about white collar crime, we’ve just had one of the biggest crime waves in NY history, and I think crime will be down for a while because there is little left to steal.
“Large areas of NYC have gentrified, and the poor are moving to the suburbs.”
There is denial abound regarding this demographic but thank you for confirming this. Retirement money is moving into metro areas, not into suburban and rural areas.
I’m beginning to see suburban decay in Denver. The neighborhood where we rent is filled with foreclosures & rentals. Nice new houses, but the owners can’t afford them and the landlords are generally those who failed to sell and are hoping they can hang on until housing recovers. Lots of unfinished fences and yards. Houses require maintenance, but it’s not getting done. Things aren’t bad yet, but after a few years of neglect, the neighborhood is going to look terrible. Inner-ring Denver suburbs are holding up. Compared to the exurbs, there are few listings. I sense that anyone with the capacity to hold tight is doing so, rather than risk selling in this market.
NCY Dept of Ed administrators have been told to cut their administrative (not school) budget/project plans by 25%
A little late to the party?
In Real Estate, Think Global, Not Local
By Scott Patterson
Word Count: 527
Did they finally get around to reading the Financial Times from three years ago?
L-t T-bond yields are exhibiting serious dis-ease so far this morning. I am trying to think of the right moniker for this price move; perhaps divergentilitis?
divergentilitis
Banks May Buy More Mortgage Securities
By James R. Hagerty
Word Count: 711 | Companies Featured in This Article: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.com/news/local/4902478.html
Maine Foreclosures
Where is the Maine RE troll who told us that ME is the worldwide destination of choice for McMillionares?? The absurdity of such a claim is laughable.
There actually are a lot of rich people here. That being said, I went to a women’s clothing consignment store in Thomaston today. Thought I would see if I could get cold hard cash for the 20 or so designer business suits that are just taking up space in my closet, before dropping them off at the Salvation Army. The very nice woman who owns the store said she isn’t buying suits anymore, because “there aren’t any jobs”. So off they went to the Salvation Army.
“Where is the Maine RE troll who told us that ME is the worldwide destination of choice for McMillionares?? The absurdity of such a claim is laughable.”
That wasn’t the point. The Maine RE troll(hmmmm) was insistent that ME was the destination of destinations for equity bandits.
I haven’t seen many equity bandits around here (Knox County). The destination of choice for Martha Stewart (and people who want to live next door to Martha Stewart) is Seal Harbor.
Bicoastal,
the saltwater farm I rent for couple of weeks in the summer is in Martinsville on the St. George Peninsula, and you are right…there are plenty of folks with serious money in the area, in Rockport and Tenants Harbor etc. When I mentioned wishing I could move there full-time, my landlady told me to be sure to bring my money with me, as I would not be making any money in Maine.
RE: Maine Foreclosures
Ah, the People’s Socialist Republic of Maine where the largest employer is the state’s Dept. of Human Services with their legions of social welfare workers, and with a #1 ranking in collective taxation while being 41st in per capita income.
Abandon hope all ye who enter here without a SSI disability classification.
It is the ultimate perversion of the centuries old concept of Yankee thrift and industriousness.
“It is the ultimate perversion of the centuries old concept of Yankee thrift and industriousness.”
******
I couldn’t have said it any better…
Because this parallels the situation in The Socialist Paradise of Vermont, with its Brooklyn (Bernie Sanders) and Manhattan / Long Island (Howard Dean) leadership!
# 1 in individual state and local tax burden; # 5 overall
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/335.html
Wheel out the socialist boogeyman when nothing else works.
Exeter … have you BEEN to Maine lately?
If you are in Exeter, NH, I think the Amtrak stops there… several dailies to Portland…
Of course, if you really want to see a dump, there’s always Rhode Island.
Yeah I was in Oxford County around Christmas.
Your point is?
Briefing
The financial system
What went wrong
Mar 19th 2008
From The Economist print edition
In our special briefing, we look at how near Wall Street came to systemic collapse this week—and how the financial system will change as a result. We start with how financiers—and their critics—have laboured under a delusion
March 25, 2008 9:15 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
U.S. HOUSING PRICES DOWN A RECORD 10.7% IN PAST YEAR: CASE-SHILLER
Street confidence on course
Stock futures pointing modestly higher after Monday’s strong advance, though traders await data that could show waning consumer confidence and more weakness in U.S. housing prices.
MarketWatch.com
Confidence, anyone?
PPT bungee chord is holding so far…
Just before 7:00am E.T., CNBC were predicting a 9.8% fall and Bloomberg 10.5%.
So the numbers were worse than either prediction.
I wonder how the MSM talking heads will be spinning this one as “better than expected”.
‘I wonder how the MSM talking heads will be spinning this one as “better than expected”.’
They’ll find a way and you can bet on it. And the gullible public will believe it just like all the other lies coming from the Voodoo Priests.
Take a look at the tiered prices, low end of San Diego (under $420k) is down 25% y-o-y, and 30% from the peak.
It’s very illustrative to look at the tiered prices when considering that the low end will fall first, and the rest will follow as plankton theory kicks in (you kill off the plankton, eventually the larger fish all die).
San Francisco looks like this:
Low end -29% yoy, -30% from peak
Medium end -16% yoy, -18% from peak
High end -3% yoy, -8% from peak
The low end weakness will move into higher price points. It’ll take time, but the weakest hands are first to fall. The high end won’t fall as much, but it will fall substantially more than it has.
By the way, they talk about how the worst markets are Miami and Vegas.
However, if you break it down by price point, the worst market in the country over the past year is the “low end” in San Francisco (at -29%). Second worst is the low end in San Diego at -25%.
My last point on this, but an important one.
Miami and Las Vegas, while touted as the worst markets, are actually looking like they will be the first to firm up.
The low end in those places is falling less fast than the mid/high end, distinctly different than pretty much every market.
In Vegas, low end fell 14% yoy, medium and high were both -20% yoy.
Miami, low end fell 11%, medium and high were both -19% yoy.
Phoenix will be next to bottom, as every price point fell 18% yoy (also relatively rare). I suspect that the low end will fall less than the rest next month.
Tampa and DC are next in line.
The rest of the markets appear to be in for a significantly longer haul.
I’m not saying the bottom is imminent–I think it will take much longer for every market to stabilize on the whole, but the low end in Miami/Vegas/Phoenix places will bottom out first.
In due time, high end will go with prime and Alt-A ARM resets. They don’t call it the “Alt-A Bay Area” for nothing…
The Alt-A Area…
…Rental Watch, could you reference your sources? I know others who have said only the bottom condos have budged at all from peak, mid-range has remained flat, and high-range has increased maybe 1%. He was quoting this data as if it were fact– naturally I was highly skeptical, but on the other hand it doesn’t seem prices have budged very much for the kind of house I’d be interested in– which isn’t a mansion but isn’t a dump either. At best inventory is inching up slowly in the city.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
On the bottom is a link to “tiered price indices”. This will get you to an excel spreadsheet. You can do the math from there for “San Francisco”.
I don’t know if this means SF proper, or whether it is a larger area around SF. In any event, the point is the same, prices at the higher priced/better areas are tougher to budget down, but that the lower priced homes/worse areas are undergoing massive correction in the SF Bay Area.
USA, Numba #1, GI!
Not quite…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3613926.ece
Switzerland 17? This is all Martina Hingis’ fault!
LOL
This “analysis” is meaningless when you realize that in 5 or 6 of those top ten you can almost throw a rock from one side of the “nation” to the other.
We’re # 22
Goodbye hegemony…
US isn’t even listed in top tier.
my oh my.
We’re still Top Gun…
Market is due for a selloff / profit taking.
Who is buying today, and how much ammo do they have available?
BULLETIN
U.S. HOUSING PRICES DOWN A RECORD 10.7% IN PAST YEAR: CASE-SHILLER
ECONOMIC REPORT
Home prices plunge record 10.7% in past year
Of 20 cities, only Charlotte holds on to meager appreciation
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:22 a.m. EDT March 25, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Home prices in 20 major U.S. metro areas have plunged a record 10.7% in the past year as prices continued to decelerate, Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index fell a record 2.4% in January, the 18th consecutive decline in prices. For 10 major cities, prices fell 2.3% in January and 11.4% for the past 12 months.
“No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis,’ said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P. Of the 20 cities, only Charlotte, N.C., has managed any gains in the past year, rising a meager 1.8%. For the fifth straight month, all 20 cities recorded lower prices compared with the previous month.
Home prices in 10 of the 20 cities have fallen at double-digit rates in the past year.
…
For the past year, the biggest price declines have been in Miami and Las Vegas, Nev., both down 19.3%. Two cities that had continued to see price increases last year - Seattle and Portland, Ore., turned negative in January. End of Story
Indeed!
Question for those in the know. I’m trying to figure out this S&P earnings data:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
It appears that in Q4 07 (99% reported) that earnings took a huge dive - from 15.15 down to 7.83. S&P price had a small drop - 1526 to 1468. One would expect then that P/E ratios would be going up a bunch - however they didn’t - instead only went from 19.42 to 20.09. What am I missing?
Thanks.
The fudging of the numbers, most likely. Gotta keep the scam going!
IRWIN KELLNER
Follow the money
Commentary: U.S. supply will determine what happens to your buying power
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:03 a.m. EDT March 25, 2008
…
In the short run, the amount of money that the Federal Reserve pumps into the economy will determine what will happen to the buying power of your dollar and mine. Over the longer term, it will determine the size and scope of the next bubble.
How this works is nothing more mysterious than the law of supply and demand. In the case of our dollars, right now, their supply is far outpacing their demand.
When this happens to any good or service, its value falls - and money is no exception.
As the buck’s value declines, it buys less. Another way to put it is that prices go up — in other words, the rate of inflation rises.
At this point it would be reasonable to question why our central bank is debasing our dollars by pumping them into the economy with what appears to be reckless abandon.
The answer is simple: It’s the only way the Fed has been able to reduce interest rates as quickly as it has since September, marking what the Economist magazine calls “the fastest loosening of monetary policy in a generation.”
An interesting article about why the Fed acted and the problems that are still out there with derivatives.
http://tinyurl.com/26af4a
“If the Fed had not stepped in, we would have had pandemonium,” said James Melcher, president of the New York hedge fund Balestra Capital.
“There was the risk of a total meltdown at the beginning of last week. I don’t think most people have any idea how bad this chain could have been, and I am still not sure the Fed can maintain the solvency of the US banking system.”
“Bear Stearns had total positions of $13.4 trillion. This is greater than the US national income, or equal to a quarter of world GDP - at least in “notional” terms. The contracts were described as “swaps”, “swaptions”, “caps”, “collars” and “floors”. This heady edifice of new-fangled instruments was built on an asset base of $80bn at best.”
Just let this crap deleverage for Pete’s sake. In the end there is no way that a federal bailout will be able to cover the trillions of bucks in imaginary money that these scumbags claim to leverage.
When will people realize that very little of this derivative money exists or will ever exist. I think that time is coming quite soon and woe to those who are last to leave the party.
Blythe Masters…Spawn of Satan or Fincial Wunderkind? Talk amongst yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap
RE: “Bear Stearns had total positions of $13.4 trillion. This is greater than the US national income, or equal to a quarter of world GDP - at least in “notional” terms. The contracts were described as “swaps”, “swaptions”, “caps”, “collars” and “floors”. This heady edifice of new-fangled instruments was built on an asset base of $80bn at best.”
The engineers of all this should all be jail.
Charge…financial rackeetering and subversion during wartime.
In many cases think there was fraud involved. Robert Rubin was quoted a few days ago that even he didn’t understand some of these products. If Rubin didn’t understand them what are the chances that investors were properly apprised of what the risks were?
FAR stats out yesterday:
http://media.living.net/
SFH median price went below $200k for the first time since Dec. 2004. Peak was $257k in June 2006. That’s a 23% drop statewide since the peak.
Florida’s getting there. Still a ways to go though to get down to a reasonable inflation-adjusted value of about $130-140k. (And possibly further given a likely overshoot, plus accounting for other factors like increased insurance and taxes).
in a state of shock and awe:
uhhh, looks like the Asains are doubling down. Hang Seng up over 6% in the overnight. HSCC Red Chip looking to top an almost eight percent in a day. Seems reasonable. Nothing irrational about that.
isnt this two days after the dreaded “Global Econonomic activity ground to a halt?”
Methinks the inflation is starting to get warmed up. Goldilocks just got a major tit-job, and I cant wait to see how she looks for opening ceremonies.
Goldilocks just got a major tit-job, and I cant wait to see how she looks for opening ceremonies.
Remember, look, but don’t touch!
Im still suprised BSC failed to open at 22.50.
what ever happend to euphoric irrational exuberance, global growth, new paradigm of never ending good times?
I am surprised it failed to open at $9 or lower. I would short more if I could borrow any non callable shares.
Are you watching leh and cof? I bought a couple puts on a lift off the lows.
Who else is really excited about the upcoming election? It is kind of like making the choice between stepping in dog turds or stepping in cat turds (with bare feet). Either way the filth will ooze between your toes and you won’t like it.
Subprime woes threaten Japan real-estate boom
Nikkei: Foreign investor-driven trusts holding massive unrealized losses
By MarketWatch
Last update: 6:18 p.m. EDT March 24, 2008
BULLETIN
U.S. CONSUMER-CONFIDENCE DATA SHOW EXPECTATIONS MEASURE AT 35-YEAR LOW
Fed receives 88 bidders for $50 bln TAF credit auction
By Greg Robb
Last update: 10:01 a.m. EDT March 25, 2008
Bid to open:
90 ($9000) Gold Comex JUN 2012 1400 Call
10:04 St Louis Fed taps insider James Bullard as next president
Market summary for Sarasota, with other Florida areas mentioned as well. The entire Miami MSA had just 244 sales in February!
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080325/REALESTATE/803250416/1661
–
Case-Shiller Index Annual Rate Change For the Past 6 Months:
____AREA 6-Month Annual Rate
Las Vegas -29.68%
Phoenix - AZ -28.21%
Miami -27.59%
San Diego -27.17%
Los Angeles -26.70%
San Francisco -23.01%
Tampa - FL -21.21%
Composite 10 -18.64%
Detroit - MI -18.15%
Composite-20 -17.95%
Washington -17.29%
Cleveland - OH -15.94%
Minneapolis - MN -15.35%
Atlanta - GA -12.83%
Denver -12.76%
Dallas - TX -12.12%
Chicago -11.09%
Seattle - WA -10.45%
Boston -9.89%
New York -8.38%
Portland - OR -7.34%
Charlotte - NC -4.90%
Jas
Viva Pavlovegas!
Got deflation?
No, reversion to the mean.
Can we agree that a correction from unsustainably overpriced housing results in housing price deflation?
Certainly.
And perhaps to below the mean.
–
Come on, Prof., by now you should know that we can’t have deflation. Helicopter Ben knows how to “make sure that ‘it’ doesn’t happen here.”
Jas
Dow 3000 by Thomas Blamer and Richard Shulman (Hardcover - Jan 1982) 25 Used & new from $0.01
29-Jan-82 Dow monthly close 871.10
Who would have thought?
–
The other side of the same coin — Dow 36,000 and Dow 100,000 during 1990s.
Jas
June gold 2012 call 1400 strike
No fill at 90 bid.
Black-Scholes market makers now at 102.60 ask (96 this AM, 94 yesterday).
Bring it on!
I would argue that the average monthly cost of goods and services used by an average family has increased by a significant amount even if you let said families “repurchase” their house at todays prices and todays interest rates. Food, Gas, and other costs have far outstripped any potential savings people are getting on housing.
Here is the true test for inflation/deflation of housing. What has the average monthly payment done for an average loan on an average house? If you factor in the tighter lending standards, down payment requirement, and higher risk premiums then the monthly cost of buying a house has probably held flat or gone up.
high anxiety:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Continuing its downward slide, U.S. consumer confidence fell in March, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, as expectations hit a 35-year-low, reaching levels not seen since the oil embargo and Watergate. The March consumer confidence index fell to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a March reading of 73.3. “Looking ahead, consumers’ outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon,” said Lynn Franco, director of consumer research at the private Conference Board.
–
OFHEO NEWS RELEASE; March 25, 2008
NEW U.S. MONTHLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX ESTIMATES 1.1 PERCENT PRICE DECLINE IN JANUARY
http://www.ofheo.gov/newsroom.aspx?ID=424&q1=1&q2=None
WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. home prices fell approximately 1.1 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis between December 2007 and January 2008, according to OFHEO’s new monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in January, U.S. prices fell 3.0 percent. Since its peak in April 2007, the monthly index is down 4.1 percent.
…
Jas
1.1 pct decline for one month occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-1.1/100)^12-1)*100 = -12.4%
People are trying anything to sell (this one’s not a new tactic) - $100 and an essay may get you a house on Colorado’s Front Range (Redfeather, above Ft. Collins):
http://tinyurl.com/ys5427
The deadline was extended on this one IIRC. Redfeathers is out in the boondocks. Funny that its ob the western slope craig list, since Redfeathers is on the other side of the continental divide.
Yeah, they’re trying to cover as much territory as they can. And you’re right, out in the sticks, bad roads in winter.
I know it is different this time, but didn’t the broad U.S. stock market indexes experience a roughly 50 pct nominal decline against a backdrop of high inflation between 1973-1975?
March 25, 2008 11:27 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Economic expectations at lowest point since 1973
Consumed with pessimism
U.S. consumer confidence falls significantly farther than forecast from February to March, while the expectations component of the Conference Board report yields a 3½-decade-low reading.
The NAR: worst forecasters ever.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/how-counter-pro.html
Mr. Yun: you can’t have it both ways. Either you capitulate and prices fall sufficiently to attract buyers or you continue to cheerlead sellers into stubbornly refusing to lower prices.
–
In connection with the rise in resales yesterday…
David Rosenberg; 03/25/08:
“Spurt in sales reflects distressed activity — Something else to consider is the extent to which the spurt in sales reflects distressed activity as foreclosed homes are auctioned off: indeed, the front page of the WSJ suggests as much – that “the total number of lender-owned homes doubled last year” and that “specialized firms that sell foreclosed homes for lenders say banks are sending them additional properties much faster than they can be sold”. See the front page of the WSJ – “Wave of Foreclosures drives Prices Lower, Lures Buyers”.”
Britain is world’s 7th most stable and prosperous nation
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3613926.ece
Mr Le Mière said that the US had fallen down the scale, although it still scored an average of 93 out of 100, partly because of the proliferation of small arms owned by Americans and the threat to the population posed by the flow of drugs from across the Mexican border.
Citizens have had guns in this country from the beginning. Sounds like the BBC is editorializing.
Yeah, but the only problem is that the quality of the people is declining while the quality of the guns they hold is improving…
Junk Bond Losses Top $35 Billion, JPMorgan Sees More
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBfCXIJG4t4o&refer=home
The slump is hurting more companies than ever before. Some 51 percent of U.S. corporate borrowers are rated below investment grade, up from 28 percent in 1992, according to S&P.
About $1 trillion of the debt is outstanding, compared with less than $10 billion 30 years ago. Two of the world’s biggest automakers, Detroit-based General Motors Corp. and Dearborn, Michigan’s Ford Motor Co., were cut to junk within the past three years, as was San Antonio-based Clear Channel Communications Inc., the largest U.S. radio broadcaster.
The amount of distressed debt in a Merrill index tripled to $175 billion this year, and was only $4.4 billion in March 2007. Bonds that trade at a spread of 10 percentage points or more over Treasuries are considered distressed because investors are concerned that the borrower will default. More than 180 companies have debt that is now considered distressed, Bloomberg data show.
Every industry group except energy and utilities posted negative returns this year. Bonds of finance companies lost 20 percent; media bonds, 10.2 percent; and real estate securities, 9.9 percent, Merrill index data show.
In one of the more spectacular meltdowns in mutual fund history, Schwab YieldPlus - marketed as a higher-yielding alternative to money market funds - has plummeted to just $2.5 billion in assets from more than $13 billion in May.
http://tinyurl.com/33m658
Comment by Bill in Carolina
“The entire Miami MSA had just 244 sales in February!”
I’m dumb. What’s “MSA”? I’m familiar with MLS.
Of those 244 sold, wonder how many are drug profit buys on the cheap? How many of these sells will be gangster and/or “grow” houses? How many are bank sells? How many are desperate sells? LMAO in Arizona where it sucks too.
Metropolitan Statistical Area. I’ts used by OFHEO, Census Bureau and OSG/Hardtack.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (I think).
–
Inflationists please take note…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/business/23haggle.html?_r=1&ei=5088&en=5ce6cd722c5025be&ex=1364011200&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
March 23, 2008
Even at Megastores, Hagglers Find No Price Is Set in Stone
By MATT RICHTEL
SAN FRANCISCO — Shoppers are discovering an upside to the down economy. They are getting price breaks by reviving an age-old retail strategy: haggling.
A bargaining culture once confined largely to car showrooms and jewelry stores is taking root in major stores like Best Buy, Circuit City and Home Depot, as well as mom-and-pop operations.
Savvy consumers, empowered by the Internet and encouraged by a slowing economy, are finding that they can dicker on prices, not just on clearance items or big-ticket products like televisions but also on lower-cost goods like cameras, audio speakers, couches, rugs and even clothing.
The change is not particularly overt, and most store policies on bargaining are informal. Some major retailers, however, are quietly telling their salespeople that negotiating is acceptable.
“We want to work with the customer, and if that happens to mean negotiating a price, then we’re willing to look at that,” said Kathryn Gallagher, a spokeswoman for Home Depot.
In the last year, she said, the store has adopted an “entrepreneurial spirit” campaign to give salespeople and managers more latitude on prices in order to retain customers.
…
Jas
A lecture from a delfationista? Still see oil going to $20 this spring?
–
My target is $13.37.
Jas
LOL.
My target is $133.70
Saj
–
“My target is $133.70″
Looks like we got both ends covered!
Jas
You’re too high Jas.
So Americans becoming able to bargain like a pro in Tijuana, is a good thing?
You could close 50% of the retail shops in the country tomorrow and I would not care. $5 lattes are no basis of an economy, and I don’t care how much a sweater at the Gap costs. Do you think we need 5000 Starbucks?
The things you really need are getting more expensive, not cheaper. Jas says oil is going to fall by 90% in the next month or two. It ain’t gonna happen. Deflation is an ideology that requires no evidence; it’s a religion.
watcher,
while I disagree with the deflationary outcome, it is both possible and well supported. It all comes down to whether you think the government will let the free market correct on its own or whether the Fed + Gov will intervene. If you get deflation then banks fail and everyone loses their money. If we get hyperinflation then the dollar fails and everyone loses their money. Either way, our country will be one of the poorest countries in the world per-capita and there will be food and gas shortages and general social chaos.
–
“Jas says oil is going to fall by 90% in the next month or two.”
Hey, Watcher, can’t you take a joke?
Jas
~18 minutes to go.
Still no fill for 90 bid June gold 2012 strike 1400 call.
I would like to see one instance of deflation in any country at any time during said period of deflation the discount rates were not raised.
If you believe this Federal Reserve is going to raise rates, you might wish to reread some of Mr. Bernanke’s papers.
The USD is getting destroyed today. Oh, and commodities are back.
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 101.06 +0.2 +0.20
Natural Gas 9.555 +0.132 +1.40
Corn 544.00 +19.25 +3.66
Soybeans 1307 +5 +0.40
30yr Bond 118.640625 -0.15625 -0.13
10yr Note 118.296875 +0.078125 +0.07
NY Gold 932.7 +14.0 +1.53
NY Silver 17.74 +0.63 +3.69
Stocks are running out of steam, dow transports back up to dec highs, bkx reversed from 90.
bkx - feh, I like the nasdaq, so does everyone else
If aapl is the leader it’s about to bump it’s head.
Jack Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, says it’s time to reinstate the Glass Stegall act of 1933, which separates investment banks from commercial banks (last paragraph):
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/080324a/
Another pro-Glass Steagall quote from Bogle, this time from his book, “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” (from books.google.com):
http://tinyurl.com/238gg2
Thorn should have used visa or mastercard, better rates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEunLxRRBCck&refer=home
Is Wells going after leh or mer?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/report-wells-fargo-says-its/story.aspx?guid=%7BC56A2C85%2D301A%2D4903%2DA03C%2DD838DD80B548%7D&dist=hplatest
–
Marx was right on diagnosis but wrong on prescription…
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2140424.0.the_red_menace.php
THE RED MENACE
The world’s markets gambled on financial alchemy. They lost.
By Iain MacWhirter
COME BACK Karl Marx, all is forgiven. Just when everyone thought that the German philosopher’s critique of capitalism had been buried with the Soviet Union, suddenly capitalism reverts to type. It has laid a colossal, global egg and plunged the world economy into precisely the kind of crisis he forecast.
The irony, though, is that this time it isn’t the working classes who are demanding that the state should take over, but the banks. The capitalists are throwing themselves on the mercy of government, demanding subsidies and protection from the capitalist market - it’s socialism for the banks. Hedge fund managers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your bonuses.
On Friday, the heads of the big five British banks demanded - and got - another £5 billion in “emergency liquidity” from the Bank of England to add to the £5bn they received earlier in the week. But like militant shop stewards they complained it wasn’t enough. “Look how much the banks are getting in Europe and America,” they whinged. Hundreds of billions of dollars and euros are being thrown at banks in an attempt to save them from themselves.
…
Jas
Time to pull a Chavez and seize the banks and all of the bank execs assets.
“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies.”
Groucho Marx
Holy crap - best quote reply ever. And on only a few minutes’ notice.
–
Graucho was a genius on human nature equal to Karl. Karl’s insights into capitalism are great.
Jas
Prof, this ones for you.
Are the Feds Manipulating the Stock Market?
“…Mike Belkin, who writes a weekly technically-based look at lots of markets—the only technical service to which I subscribe—notes today that last week equity fund flows netted to a $22.9 billion inflow, broken down as $3.3 billion of mutual fund outflow, and $26.2 billion of ETF inflow. His inference is that the Fed/Treasury is buying ETFs. Just so you know, Mike is an ultimate insider, although he views things with a very jaundiced eye, and views them from Seattle. He ran a Salomon prop desk for years, and is the opposite of a conspiracy theorist or a perma-anything—he’s very good at noting crosscurrents and catching shorter term countertrend moves within broad longer term trends….”
Naked Capitalism
Yves Smith
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Wouldn’t shock me a bit but again, so what? If you know it, follow it and make some $$$. Except for a few stocks which are old friends and I know and love, I stick with ETFs and index products. Really liking that SKF now, it’s easy to trade and moves a lot.
I’d like to get that service though.
Not worried about the counterparty risk with ultrashort ETFs?
A lot of worries on the Ticker Forums lately about SKF and SRS. Rumors that UBS is holding a lot of the paper.
Nah, usually don’t hold it overnight.
Hoz, I read the article on jpm, this is what i don’t understand, instead of the banks unwinding derivatives, they are adding to them.
JPM is counterparty to a lot of BSC crappola. So they are doing a wash. Unfortunately for JPM, the rest of the crap appears to be so bad that JPM is effectively losing another $6B ontop of losing $6B in the takeover for a grand total of $12B. This loss is before any additional writedowns. JPM is overpaying for BSC. Marry in haste repent, repent, repent….they should have let them go into BK. JPM is jeopardizing its growth for the next decade with this takeover.
Interesting how J.P. Morgan saved the day 101 years ago, in the “Panic of ‘07″…
Private Aladin Sane
I suggest you get back to your post. Captain Joshua Tree Morgan decides to drill you a new one.
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRecession & 15 men on a dead loans quest…
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum Drink and the devil had done for the rest…
“JPM is overpaying for BSC. Marry in haste repent, repent, repent”
And assuming Morgan has no intention of committing financial seppuku, what kind of faustian bargain did they cut with the BB dog-&-pony show?
It pains me to see Mr. Bernanke get the dubious credit for this when the culprit is Mr. Henry Paulson. Unfortunately the Federal Reserve has become a political tool.
Mr. Paulson was the strong arm, The New York federal Reserve under the aegis of Mr. Timothy Geithner and other members of the Board of directors of the Federal Reserve including Mr. Jamie Dimon (2009 Class A
elected by member banks to represent member banks
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
JPMorgan Chase) followed Mr. Paulson’s lead.
More than a coincidence?
“The reason I consider this credible is that I was told back in 2000 by my derivative trading buddies that the Fed, known as the Turk, would place orders in S&P futures. Note that the Fed has no responsibility for the health of the stock market despite what its actions would lead you to believe.”
This must be the infamous “Trader 59″ or whatever his name is.
“and he’s very good at noting crosscurrents and catching shorter term countertrend moves within broad longer term trends….”
that’s one of my favorite ways to trade too. BIDU for instance has been a champ for that.
“and he’s very good at noting crosscurrents and catching shorter term countertrend moves within broad longer term trends….”
So the market is going up short term against a long term downtrend in part because the FED is buying ETF’s. OK I’ll buy that.
Question how long is short term ? By summer its all over?
another term for it is “bear market rally”
they’re some of the best. you just need to know when to leave
Not much volume today, it looks like the end of december rally that failed.
I dumped my sp and dow calls yesterday, sticking with the nasdaq.
Reloaded some puts on c, jpm, leh, cof, yrcw, jbht and djx.
“…Recent Fed actions and deeply oversold conditions have helped create a very powerful bounce, however, it seems that the effect of these market-supporting factors may be coming to an end for now.
A quick look at S&P 500 breadth shows this. The percentages of stocks trading above their 5, 10 and 20-day averages are above or close to the +1SD line (for the charts below, this is a standard deviation above the 1-year average for the indicator). This means that the market could become overbought after another positive session or two…..”
http://tinyurl.com/34q734
index indicators
36K per year for that Belkin Report. Wow, but still thinking about it. Anyone want to split a subscription?
reverse the reversal. commodity run is real, poor fundamentals for the dollar, poor debt to equity structure for powerhouse global leader, this is painful, I dont like this. I am overweight energy, and commodity complex, Canandian equities,and I am not short anything, I must employ long strategy.
I dont spook easily. other than that this is most likely a call back thread. happy birthday to me.
RE: MSM pundits and economists
The age of the anti-Cassandra
Paul Krugman
“…Today, our public discourse is dominated by people who have been wrong about everything — but are still, mysteriously, treated as men of wisdom, whose judgments should be believed. Those who were actually right about the major issues of the day can’t get a word in edgewise….”
NYT
http://tinyurl.com/2efqpt
Misleading punditry creates a large opening for deep-pocketed players who know what’s up to make a bundle.
I’ve been trying to get my 401K administrator to open a T-bill option for months. Frustrating! The most conservative fund available seems steeped in MBS with FNMA, which they call Government agency! Got the following door closer from the HR dept.
“All fund information from John Hancock has to go through our advisor, …so our customer service rep couldn’t give me much information directly. I spoke with this morning after his presentation to new employees. There is not a T-bill only option available in the 401k. The only government options are the Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund and the Money Market Fund, I understand that these were not acceptable since they both have government backed mortages from FNMA and FHA. According to JH, the gov’t backed mortgages are no different than gov’t backed T-bills as far as security. The mortgage dangers in the market now have to do with non-government backed mortgages. Their logic is that if gov’t backed mortgages fail, then T-bills will also since the government backs them both.
The only other option besides corporate bonds or equities would be the guaranteed annuity option, but when you buy into that you need to remain there for the length of the contract, currently 3 yrs is the minimum and then you can get out on an annual basis after that. For March entry, the rate is guaranteed at 2.8% per annum for the 3 yr option.
Please let me know if you need any further information. Sorry we were not able to offer the specific investment you wanted.”
Any suggestions about this? I’ve read here that group think was FNMA isn’t guaranteed by the gov’t. GNMA site even says it is the only issuer of gov’t guaranteed MBS.
finally, GnnMea gonna pay….load it up.
If these funds are driven down to 3 month tbill yields, thats the end of the long end of the curve. You do not wanna see how that story ends.
When you factor in the mid-size bank closures that will start hitting later this year (when small to mid-size homebuilders fold and default on loans) along with unprecedented foreclosures and a glut of newly completed condos coming available this spring, the housing market will sink to levels never seen before, not to mention the economy doing likewise. Dare we start forecasting depression?
Sam,
The mid-size banks will fold from commercial construction loans, they have little exposure to home building loans. Nevertheless, an awful lot of banks will fold.
First post lost in the ozone again!
Anyone willing to guess where the LIBOR 6 month rate is trending? Last year = 5.34 Last week 2.94 Today 2.39 (I left off the percent sign, maybe that killed the first post)
Someone probably posted this a couple weeks ago. Forgive me: http://tinyurl.com/2ll5s2
But I am certainly glad that I never had any respect for Cramer. He was advising someone just a trading day before the Bear Stearns collapse NOT to sell Bear Stearns. Grr!
Got that from Doug Casey’s columnist David Galland. http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1938
Hoarding by banks stokes fears on credit crisis
By Chris Giles in London and James Politi in Washington
Published: March 25 2008 15:10 | Last updated: March 25 2008 20:36
Central banks’ efforts to ease strains in the money markets are failing to stop financial institutions from hoarding cash, stoking fears that the recent respite in equity markets may not signal the end of the credit crisis.
Banks’ borrowing costs – a sign of their willingness to lend to each other – in the US, eurozone and the UK rose again even after the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented activity in lending to retail and investment banks against weaker than usual collateral and similar action in Europe.
The rescue of Bear Stearns marks liberalisation’s limit
By Martin Wolf
Published: March 25 2008 19:06 | Last updated: March 25 2008 19:06
Remember Friday March 14 2008: it was the day the dream of global free-market capitalism died. For three decades we have moved towards market-driven financial systems. By its decision to rescue Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve, the institution responsible for monetary policy in the US, chief protagonist of free-market capitalism, declared this era over. It showed in deeds its agreement with the remark by Joseph Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, that “I no longer believe in the market’s self-healing power”. Deregulation has reached its limits.
DIRIGISME
Home Prices’ Steep Drop Continues,
According to S&P/Case-Shiller Report
Ofheo Price Index Also Declines;
Consumer Confidence Fell in March
By MIKE BARRIS
March 25, 2008 4:07 p.m.
A closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices shows record declines continued into the new year as the nation’s deep housing slump intensified.
Single-family home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in January were down 11.4% from a year earlier and down 2.3% from December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, released Tuesday by credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s.
A one-month decline of 2.3% occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-2.3/100)^12-1)*100 = -24.4%. This, of course, considers large city housing markets on a national basis.
A favor from any and all, I am helping a friend with some investments. I am trying to be lazy, any recommendations on stocks under $3.00. (I’ll research, just too lazy to winnow through the thousands listed). No tech stocks - I do not understand those.
Looking for about 100 stocks to narrow to 10. I’ll post the 10 that I pick.
I deliberately end up with a stock under $3.00 when it is in an area that I have researched. I do not look for $3.00 stocks.
Thanks in advance.
back up the truck on Westoprt Innovations WPT.TO
the natural gas story is still growth, cleaner transportation energy growth, and with lower rates and cheap money, inflation is just getting started.
Thanks Voz
I do not care what exchange the stock is listed upon (except No Russian POS). LOL
what the heck does the share price of a stock have to do with anything? Don’t you care what the P/E is, how much money in assets they have? How much debt? Looks like you just want to gamble on a number.
Hi Reuven, No I will weed to get the best for fundamentals. It is just diversifying a small account. Not for my account, Some sites like the Motley Fool et al have lists, but there are a lot of people that know companies that are on the HBB. As a person that believes in the Peter Principle “You are better off investing in companies you know”, the knowledge here is huge.
If I were looking at investing moneys in this account for myself, I would start my sort by price, industry, management, then fundamentals - and lastly I would visit the company. (If the offices are nice, the investors will never get much.)
There is so much junk out there that I am trying to be lazy by asking from the myriads that have already researched some of these companies and weeded. Not trying to be cute or funny.
Hoz,
This following IS a tech stock, but is fairly easy to understand its allure if you ignore its “techniness”. It is profitable, with 53% gross margins, 20%-25% revenue growth last year, this year, and into the future. Solid management, diverse revenue stream, global customer base. Also, share price is $4.25 so it’s slightly higher than your $3.00 target. Ticker is Ramtron (RMTR). Good luck with your venture…
BINDY
Thanks Bindy
Not a technical analyst, but it looks like it just broke to the upside.
Not sure about the price until all weeded out.
I always figured stocks that fell from triple digits to below 10 dollars a share were worthless money pits like many of the tech companies I have worked for. I would stay away from any fallen high flyers. NG is the only small company I follow but do not own I think its about 10 a share?
Voz - Is it really your Birthday? Happy B’day to you. Stay away from the Pale Ale.
CCU deal is falling by the wayside. Is it finally dawning on the markets that this is the end of cheap credit? If the central banks are viewed as paper tigers, will the dollar crash through 70 and head straight for 60?
How is that decoupling theory holding up in the face of the available empirical evidence?
ASIA MARKETS
Shanghai stocks dive further to lead Asia lower
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:36 p.m. EDT March 26, 2008
Larry Ellison just received $3M back on his re-assessed property in Woodside! Wow - I guess he needed that.
Reminds me of my bosses — submitting their $2 expenses for a coffee the same day they cash in their options for millions.