Grown Men Are Crying In Florida
The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “In February, the prices of existing-homes continued to fall - to $254,200 from $319,000 from February to February. Locally, the median price of a single family home was down 20 percent, tying with Miami for the second-largest price tumble. Punta Gorda experienced the largest price fall with a median price 25 percent below where it was just one year ago… according to numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Condos in Bradenton/Sarasota fared much worse. Only five of Florida’s 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas saw fewer sales than Bradenton/Sarasota despite a 41 percent drop in condo prices from February 2007, bringing the median cost of a condo to $211,500.”
“‘We’re seeing that beginning offers are low even if the house is priced appropriately,’ said broker Michael Taylor.”
“Short sales may be a large reason behind the continued drop in prices. Joanne Owens, operating principal of Keller Williams of Greater Manatee has 54 listings and 40 percent of those are short sales. ‘I’ve had grown men coming into our office crying,’ Owens said.”
The Herald Tribune. “Like virtually every real estate agent contacted, Lynn Robbins of Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc., has listings on which the price has been reduced significantly, but where the seller is still waiting for offers.”
“‘I’ve got a really good deal on a house West of the Trail,’ Robbins said, referring to a 1926 home with hardwood floors, fireplace, and its own guest house, reduced from $800,000 to $700,000. ‘There’s a house across the street for $1.495 million.’”
“Robbins’ listing has been on the market since July, and the sellers are ’serious.’”
“The Sarasota MLS listed 10,035 single-family homes for sale in February, virtually unchanged from the 10,391 a year before. In Englewood, broker Jason Painter summed it up without too many numbers to get in the way: ‘I would say there is probably three years’ worth of inventory.’”
“They can get on the water in Punta Gorda Isles, and they are sitting there in the high $200,000s,’ said Luke Andreae of the Andreae Group for Re/Max Harbor Realty of Port Charlotte. ‘That is less than lots cost three years ago.’”
The Tampa Tribune. “When the foreclosure filing came last month, developer Fida Sirdar determined the only way to save The Place at Channelside condominium was to file for bankruptcy reorganization. It was either that, he said, or hand the keys over to the bank and walk way.”
“About a half-mile away, the developers of The Towers of Channelside also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, after Wachovia cut off the company’s credit. And the developers of Trump Tower Tampa say they too may soon be filing for bankruptcy, if they don’t secure construction financing for the luxury tower this week.”
“All these projects have something else in common: vanishing buyers. Developers say buyers either wouldn’t close because the market had changed or couldn’t close because they no longer qualified for loans. Others were speculators or just lost hope in the projects.”
“‘Developers have been hanging in there and trying to make it work, but their cash flows are depleting,’ said real estate lawyer David Carter. ‘There’s going to be a lot of failures.’”
“Bonnie Dealva, who purchased a unit in The Place, said if the contractors had finished the building on time, more buyers would have closed before the market tanked. Dealva decided not to live there because the building feels empty. The Channel District didn’t turn out to be the vibrant area she thought it was, she said. She’s leasing out her place and renting an apartment near Rocky Point.”
The News Press. “Sales of single-family homes in Lee County soared in February as buyers were spurred into action by a sharp drop in prices. Prices have been falling steadily for about two years in Lee County, although last month’s sales were exactly the same as a year ago.”
“Mary Grace Munoz, of Cape Coral, who with her husband bought two single-family homes for $133,000 each. Her son and daughter each bought a house, she added.”
“Real estate agent Brett Ellis in Fort Myers attributed the pickup in sales to the rising number of foreclosures. A total of 1,674 foreclosure actions were filed in circuit court in February, down from a record 1,833 in January but up sharply from 624 in February 2007.”
“The Coral Lakes sales show that lower prices stimulate purchases, Ellis said, but they’ll also likely cause some who bought there for the old, higher prices to walk away from their mortgages and go into foreclosure.”
“David and Jessica Diaz are looking forward to regaining the American dream after they file the bankruptcy this week forced on them by Lee County’s housing industry collapse.”
“‘I never in a million years thought this could happen to me,’ said David Diaz, who’s working overtime to stay afloat while paying almost $7,000 a month in mortgages on their new Cape home and their home in Lehigh Acres they’ve been unable to sell.”
“But now he sees the handwriting on the wall: Even after cleaning out his 401(k) of thousands of dollars, their problems are too overwhelming.”
“It’s time to make a move, he said. ‘I’m tired of being upset and trying to keep thinking of ways of doing things.’”
“‘People are just beat up right now,’ said the Diazes’ attorney, Charles Phoenix of Fort Myers. ‘It used to be you lost your job or some asset failed — now they’re getting it from every direction. Their house has fallen in value, and worst of all that’s offset by a huge debt they can never hope to pay off.’”
“If anything, the number of bankruptcies being filed understates how bad the situation is, Phoenix said: ‘Really, the pipeline is constricted. There are only so many law firms handling bankruptcies.’”
“Many of the current ones are people who, like the Diazes, are cleaning their financial slate, an option that’s increasingly acceptable in society, Fort Myers-based bankruptcy attorney Carmen Dellutri said.”
“‘All of a sudden it’s become not fashionable but OK,’ he said. ‘I think people are coming to the realization they’re not going to be able to dig their way out of that hole themselves.’”
“Many clients, he said, ‘are doing well, but they’re bleeding themselves to death. One gentleman said, ‘I spent $100,000 in the past year keeping up these investments.’”
“Diaz said the housing bust hit his family hard: Jessica lost her $60,000-a-year job as adjuster and accountant for a construction firm and has started up a home-based specialty cake business. He’s resigned himself to losing the custom house in Cape Coral they worked for years to attain: ‘We owe $344,000 and it’s now worth $250,000 to $280,000. In the prime of the market it was worth half a million.’”
“Ultimately, he said, ‘The moral of the story is sometimes things are just out of your hands. You’ve just got to go with the flow.’ Fighting off bankruptcy too long can destroy you, he said. ‘It’s like a big hole in the boat. You can try to bail the water out but you know eventually it’s going to get tired and you’ll sink.’”
“Cindy Roper, a Realtor in Fort Myers, said she has been encountering a lot of short sales.”
“‘There was a lot of vacant land there and a lot of people built on speculation, hoping to make some money off of it,’ she said. ‘You had a lot of construction workers out there and they were able to purchase a newer home, 2000 and up, and of course, a lot of them lost their jobs. It’s been a spiral down effect for everyone.’”
“Roper is the listing agent for a home (where) the bank holding the mortgage is reviewing a short-sale purchase offer for the three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a pool and a two-car garage, she said.”
“The asking price was $239,000 when the house, built in 2001, hit the market last October, but now stands at $138,000, she said.”
The Miami Herald. “An average home sold for around $306,000 here — down more than $50,000 from the same time last year. And still, the stockpile of unsold homes grew. The 80,000 homes and condos listed for sale don’t include thousands of condos still under construction nor thousands of properties acquired by lenders through foreclosures during the past few months.”
“Only 360 home sales were closed in Broward in February, a 28 percent drop from the same time last year. In Miami-Dade, the number was 244, down 41 percent. The number of condos sold was 459 in Broward, down 18 percent; in Miami-Dade it was 235, down 46 percent.”
The Sun Sentinel. “South Florida’s housing market looks worse now than it did at the end of a brutal 2007. Palm Beach County’s overbuilt condominium market is reeling. The median condo price last month fell 24 percent, to $159,300 from $209,600 a year ago.”
“Susan Gordon of Rhode Island listed her parents’ three-bedroom house in Boynton Beach in January 2006, just as the housing boom was ending. She never received an offer and has sliced her price to $229,000 from $350,000.”
“‘I’m getting a little bit fed up constantly lowering the price and not getting anything meaningful out of it,’ said Gordon. ‘But I guess it’s happening all over.’”
“In many cases, buyers are making low-ball offers, regardless of a home’s condition, Boynton Beach agent Bob Melzer said. ‘Buyers are all convinced that the market’s a disaster, but they can’t separate the houses that are overpriced from the ones that are well-priced,’ Melzer said. ‘It’s very frustrating.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Rising consumer prices and slumping home values are straining some Central Floridians, especially those with lower incomes and oversized mortgage payments. People who until recently had counted on home-equity lines and other forms of credit to bridge the gap between stagnant incomes and higher prices for food, gas and other items are particularly vulnerable.”
“‘My house is up for sale,’ said Kim Hanley, a custodian at Walt Disney World. ‘I just put it on the market. I can’t keep up; it’s gotten to be too much. The economy is terrible; gas prices are ridiculous. I’ve even done things like moved to a slower-speed Internet connection. I’ve cut down on air conditioning. But it’s not enough.’”
“Hanley, a single parent in her 40s with a teenage daughter, makes $11.82 an hour at Disney but said she has been on medical leave recently and is falling behind. ‘At my age, I expected to have a nice little nest egg, but I hardly have any savings,’ she said. ‘It’s hard to keep up.’”
“On Saturday a busload of prospective home buyers went searching for bargains as part of a tour of foreclosed and bank-owned homes in east Orange County. Tours also are planned in Seminole and Osceola counties. The empty homes beckoned bargain hunters with new carpet and paint and tantalizingly low prices.”
“Rudy Darden, 27, was among the busload of potential buyers hoping to snag a home for a fraction of its original value.”
“‘I wasn’t expecting to see new carpet, tile and appliances in a foreclosed house,’ said Darden, an Orlando newlywed and first-time home buyer, as he inspected a house near the University of Central Florida.”
“In one house, the residents expressed their frustration by hammering holes in the walls, staining the carpet and damaging the stove before leaving their home to the bank that held the mortgage.”
“Carlos Colmenares, a Kissimmee-area renter, said he could see the stress the former owners were under by the condition they left the house. Still, he said, ‘It’s a great opportunity for us buyers.’”
The Times Union. “Jacksonville’s single-family dwelling sales fell 40 percent in February to 687, with the median price 9 percent lower at $180,200. Area sales of existing condominiums also decreased by 12 percent to 92; sale prices fell 21 percent to $142,500.”
“One local analyst explained the Northeast Florida drop as a consequence of the excess new home inventory that has prompted builders to offer a myriad of incentives. Although some potential buyers might want to move into one of these new homes, they can’t sell their existing home.”
“‘Incentives are good for the new buyer, but consumers can’t match those incentives,’ said Ray Rodriguez, owner of the Real Estate Strategy Center of North Florida Inc. Rodriguez doesn’t fault builders because they ‘have to do something to keep business alive.’”
“Some home owners there are dropping prices and throwing in golf carts to move a deal, said Realtor Dottie Lay.”
“‘Your home has to either be staged cleaner and nicer or you have to offer incentives,’ said Lay, who has dropped the sales price on her own St. Augustine home more than once as she prepares to move into a new home still under construction.”
The News Journal. “Upon returning to Florida to check on two rental properties she and her husband own, Regina Marston was surprised by to see how much this seaside community has gone to seed.”
“Numerous homes, some of them in one stage of foreclosure or another, have overgrown and unkempt lawns, boarded-up windows, blue tarp-covered roofs or missing shingles, and boats, cars and trash in the yard.”
“‘I live in California now, but I came back in December and I was shocked to see the decline in the area,’ said Marston, a former long-time resident who plans to retire here one day. ‘Values are falling. I pay $8,000 a year in property taxes, and what am I getting in return?’”
“‘Over time, things get out of hand, and unless someone reports it, it doesn’t get fixed,’ said Realtor Al Weeks, the Marstons’ agent, who has been in the real estate business in Ormond-by-the-Sea for 21 years.”
“If a yard needs to be mowed, a notice is mailed to the address on record for the property owner. If the notice is returned, code enforcement officers will post another notice on the property for 10 days, after which a crew will be sent in and a bill will be mailed to the property owner charging an hourly fee for the mowing and a $200 administrative fee.”
“If the bill is returned, a lien will be placed against the property, said Carol Kerrigan, Volusia County’s code enforcement manager. ‘We can do it twice a year,’ Kerrigan said. ‘We’ll probably do a lot of these until we run out of money.’”
“But Regina Marston doesn’t think that goes far enough.”
“‘That’s a plan? The market has changed, and that won’t work anymore,’ she said. ‘The county can’t do business as usual. This is an unusual situation. This is an emergency.’”
“Two streets over from one of the Marstons’ properties is a home that was foreclosed on March 11. The grass was overgrown, brown fronds drooped from a palm tree in the front yard, a storm door stood open and a section of wood fencing lay on the ground. County records show the foreclosure sale will be April 11.”
“‘If the county isn’t doing anything right now, what are they going to do when these (foreclosures) hit the market?’ Marston said. ‘I think the county has allowed this area to get to such a place that I won’t be able to sell either one of my homes for what they’re worth.’”
From the first link:
‘RoseBay Real Estate agent Debbie Roth has also seen a large influx of investors returning to the market. ‘Two-thirds of the contracts I’m writing are for investors,’ Roth said.’
‘In her position as president of the Manatee Association of Realtors, Roth has talked with many local economists about where they see the market heading. ‘They are telling us to expect appreciation this year,’ Roth said.’
‘While many are still on the fence, agents are finding communication is key. ‘The more people talk, the calmer people are going to get. It’s still cheaper to buy than it is to rent,’ Roth said.’
Appreciation? The economic news in the Tampa Tribune today was the worst I have ever seen. A survey: our courts may have to cut staff by one-third; independent truckers can barely afford diesel; developers can’t find tenants for many of the fifty commercial office parks that were built in this area last year; two largely-unoccupied local condo developments have declared bankruptcy and purchasers are trying to get out of their contracts; retiree purchasing power in Florida has dropped by 25% since 2006 alone; and public money is so tight that we no longer can afford to landscape medians.
But Debbie Roth can’t or won’t read the tea leaves on these developments, because she consults with the experts. Three guesses as to who the unidentified “local economists” are. Cue the seal!!!
But Debbie Roth can’t or won’t read the tea leaves on these developments, because she consults with the experts.
I read the same information and the crap put out by the realtors makes no sense from an economic point of view. The realtors prefer to listen to the predictions of Fishkind who by the way has been incorrect on his rosey predictions. These realtors are not getting down to the street level economics and listening to their customers.
Incomes are in negative territory and have not kept pace with inflation or the rapid increases in the property appreciation. If the market is to correct in the Tampa Bay area, prices need to fall back to the 2000 level just to be in-line with the long term growth rates. We are not there yet.
Of course you can always ask Ralph, the RE agent blogger who thought he out smarted the market by catching the falling knife. Lets see how smart he is when this is over and he has lost an additional 15-20% on his smart purchase!
Realtors are just following the lead of our MBA administration, where you cherry pick (or make-up) the intelligence to fit the policy.
Yeah, that’s right, and if Washington was in a golden age of honesty and integrity, the realtors, and everyone else would automatically follow suit.
Debbie is a bag of hot air, she is a realator so that puts her on equal footing with a blow hard politician. Does debbie ever mention the fact that most of the realators are quiting and looking for a job where lieing is part of your job discription. You got to hope the banks, mortgage co.,and the bankers all lose thier hat and more, awww poor theives.
Manatee must be spiking the water with something fun. “Investors, appreciation and ‘cheaper to buy than rent’” sound like someone is high on major hallucinogens.
MSM is talking about how the ‘bottom is in sight’ because the February numbers are up M-O-M, but not Y-O-Y. Isn’t this just the normal uptick in spring sales? Or maybe the ‘dead-cat’ bounce?
It’s still cheaper to buy than it is to rent,’ Roth said.’
More hype than reality by this realtor. If it were more cost effective to rent, than why is there such a large inventory of homes on the market.
I ran the numbers last night on my own situation and it is much more cost effective to rent than to own in the Tampa bay area!
“In many cases, buyers are making low-ball offers, regardless of a home’s condition, Boynton Beach agent Bob Melzer said. ‘Buyers are all convinced that the market’s a disaster, but they can’t separate the houses that are overpriced from the ones that are well-priced,’ Melzer said. ‘It’s very frustrating.’”
HELLO…the homes are overpriced!!!…not well priced..if they were they would be SOLD! Home prices need to go back to 2001-2002 prices..and they will! Economists are predicting that the Florida housing market still has 20 months left of decline.
Economists are predicting?…… Gee, it makes me feel better to know that we have economists on the case. They’ve been so accurate up to this point.
Odd that none of these “economists” are named.
Is there any barrier to entry to being called an “economist” ?
Chances are she’s extrapolating a meaningless statement like “we could see some appreciation later this year in some markets” from one economist who does work for the state/local realtor assn.
The economist was named in the Sun Sentinel article…
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/sfl-flzhousingbr0325sbmar25,0,2313700.story
The price story is one that remains quite grim,” said Chris Lafakis, associate economist for Moody’s Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., research firm. “We expect prices to decline in Florida for the next 20 months, which puts us well into 2009. That’s what’s necessary for sales to pick up.”
Economists are predicting that the Florida housing market still has 20 months left of decline.
People are still in denial that prices will not decline further in Florida. However, when you look at the big economic picture it does not look good and that will put more downward preasure on prices.
Realtors are playing the same game that they played during the boom and people who did not do their research are falling for the same old tricks, buy now before these bargains disappear, or buy now before prices go back up again.
I did not fall for those tricks after the S&L crisis in the late 80’s. The real good deals were found about five years after the bust. If you bought just two years after the S&L bust, you ended up paying much more than if you waited four years later.
I couldn’t agree more! I’m writing from a rented condo on the beach on Siesta Key and the prices in my complex are still triple 2000 levels.
I just signed a lease on a brand new townhome in Melbourne Beach for $1000/mo. The owner bought the place back in December for $265K (the people in the rest of the development paid $440K for the same unit almost 2 years ago). All of her costs must be up over $1600 - $1700/mo. It is still WAY cheaper to rent than it is to own. This market (especially Brevard county) has a long way to go down before it is cheaper to buy than to rent.
“It’s still cheaper to buy than it is to rent,’
I don’t recall any of these cheerleaders ever giving a concrete example. Say, two comparable houses in the same neighborhood, one for sale and one for rent.
In the old-old days, PITI meant a substantial amount for P&I and a nominal amount for T&I, but not anymore in Florida. Show me the math, lady.
Charlatans like this con young people - a young relative of mine was all ready to buy a condo in SW Orlando because they “were told” prices were still increasing. They didn’t consider how much condo fees and taxes would add to their mortgage payment, if they can get a loan, nor what closing costs will do to their cash on the front and back end. Meanwhile, they’re paying a reasonable rent, though I think they could do better by shopping around.
OCRenter and others post excellent records of falling prices, with a history of sales and photos. I refer clueless househunters to such sites whenever they ask my thoughts about the market. So far, maybe a half-dozen heeded the caution and held off and one didn’t.
I’m writing are for investors,’ Roth said.’
The term “investor” has taken on a specific meaning in finance to describe the particular types of people and companies that regularly purchase equity or debt securities for financial gain
snake, fuzzy, dime and others,
What do you think will happen to beach city prices along Gulf Blvd: Madeira, Redington, Indian Rocks, Belleair thru Clearwater Beach? Thanks.
I’ve only been out there once in the last year, but I saw a lot of for-sale signs, just like everywhere else. I don’t know what the owners’ “wishing prices” were, but I presume they were very high, because all waterfront property in this state was the subject of tremendous activity from speculators.
I actually think beach property will drop to the level where it can be affordably insured.
What do you think will happen to beach city prices along Gulf Blvd: Madeira, Redington, Indian Rocks, Belleair thru Clearwater Beach?
Prices will continue to drop. Most of the units are condos and condos are overbuilt, which means the overbuildingwill put a further downward preasure on property values. Secondly, most baby boomers are not relocating to these areas due to the high cost of ownership and I believe that will put presure on prices. I also think that the high insurance costs and taxes will help fuel the decline in property values in these coastal areas.
Whenever you see the word realtor you should read “snakeoil salesman.” What does she mean that its still cheaper to buy than rent? Oh really? Maybe if you have $10,000 or more to put down. There are an awful lot of people who barely have enough to live on. Where are they going to get that kind of money? My family and I rent a beautiful house for $1200 a month. It would probably run us close to $ 2000 a month for a mortgage payment. And I haven’t even begun to figure in the upkeep costs. This mantra that its cheaper to buy than to rent is a joke for huge numbers of people.
That 1926 place sounds nice. I love the “Old Florida” houses, but the price is still obscene. The sellers obviously aren’t that serious.
It is actually a nice looking house - 1896 Hibiscus St. Sarasota. Though no backyard, and the paint scheme is too Starbucks-ish IMO. Even though it’s “west of the trail” - it’s still only 5 houses from the trail (very busy road), in one of the not-so-great neighborhoods. The “guest house” looks like probably the garage - there’s not even a picture of the inside in the listing.
According to zillow the value is $671k. It sold in 2004 for $525k. Value in 1999 was $250k. So I say - keep dreaming Lynn. I’d say the fair market value for the house is more like about $350k, or at least will be once things finally shake out in that area.
Zillow’s value? Don’t trust it. I’ve been tracking values of a few homes on there for a while now; they keep going back and revising their “past” estimates.
One new home I looked at was originally “valued” at its purchase price - a few years later, it was given imaginary values from before it was built, and its purchase price (new, from the builder) was marked as “not counted” because it was too out of norm with their formula.
I give Zillow a big ZERO! They were once a honest website when it came to pricing…but when they started accepting $$ from realtors for advertising..they lost it…now they are taking money from mortgage brokers to “recommend” them to potential buyers..I won’t use Zillow anymore for getting a “correct” selling/buying price…
I have checked them against property records and they DO NOT have proper sales info nor have they reflected ANY of the correct price drops in the SFL market..
Packman, IMHO….. I think time will show your estimates to be too high. My belief is that if prices stop at 1996 levels, we will all have avoided a bullet!
There is an old saying that when a bubble pops, asset prices (not values) return to the price before the bubble started and in the event of a major bubble, they return to the value at the end of the last correction….. This would be 1991/1992 prices.
Your statement that prices return to the value at the end of the last correction is NOT exactly accurate from a technical trading point of view and besides it only applies to “traded securities” in any case.
Even if your claim was correct INFLATION has to be figured into your analysis. Without factoring in Inflation you would actually be expecting prices to be LESS in real purchasing power than what they were at the end of the last correction.
Then there is also the issue for real estate that they dynamics of the local markets change over time and some places become MORE desirable places to live and others LESS desirable places to live. (ie: real estate has a LOT of local flavor to it)
For housing pricing a more realistic formula is a ratio of local income levels to the housing pricing … with obviously an adjustment UP if the area is one that continually attracts outsiders who move into the area with ready cash (and vice versa … if the area has net migration out). fwiw those ratio’s, including an area’s historic ratio, are publicly available for all parts of the US.
Old Trader
When I read that one the first time through I had a brain hiccup that substituted “furious” for “serious.” I wonder if they are furious as well as serious?
–
“Grown Men Are Crying In Florida”
They have reasons to! One earns pain just as one earns happiness – by making good choices and avoiding bad decisions.
Jas
I know I’m not supposed to laugh but this line made me spit my drink. Where Tom Hanks when you need him? Are you crying?!? There’s not crying in RE!
This has got to be the all-time best headline in HBB. Thanks for all of your work, Ben.
I’m waiting for the movie.
Unfortunately “No Way Out” has already been used.
Maybe “Weekend at Lereah’s” would work.
‘One earns pain just as one earns happiness – by making good choices and avoiding bad decisions.’
Now, see, these pithy and boldly declarative axioms always confuse me. What if one sometimes feels like having both pain and happiness at once? What if someone else does, and they’re tied to one’s couch frame at that time? Gimme an answer here, Mr. Jas ‘I Have Proverbs For All’, and don’t mix gold futures in there, either.
–
Demanding answers is not good form. I comment what comes to my mind at the time and you are free to ignore it or say what you want to say.
In general, most people buy their problems. Some are truly in difficult circumstances, but most are not.
Jas
So said Darwin.
“Demanding answers is not good form. ”
Ouch! TYSMIHA*?
*Thankyou,Sir,mayIhaveanother?
What do you want?
A BOHICA?
Jas - from what I am seeing, they’ve formed a tag team and whatever you say they will attack.
From Wikipedia: Troll (Internet), a person who is deliberately inflammatory on the Internet in order to provoke a vehement response from other users.
While your own views on this blog have often generated debate, they dealt with the subject of the blog, not a response to someone else’s, and you are regularly quoted elsewhere.
I’m not going to put myself in the position of trying to judge whether seemingly very-self-important newcomers are behaving as trolls, but rather wonder if others think so, too. There is always the possibility that I am just too stodgy.
The bashing has reached “Oh, the humanity” levels if “gimme an answer” is an attack. Furthermore, if “gimme an answer” is an attack, then “bad form” and “troll” and “very-self-important newcomers” are more on the level of a wilding. Why don’t we agree to see it all as well-intentioned discourse if possible? Nobody appears to be trying to silence anyone. Mild provocation can lead to explanation and thence to greater understanding, can it not? And is not understanding linked to peace and love? Just what’s so funny ’bout that?
So far as I can see, nobody on here really gets attacked unless they come on with a lot of loudass “hello I am a recent investor who will ride out this dip and make the big bucks while you sheeple cry U will C the air of you’re wayz soon enuff $ucker$$$!”
Of course, though, I don’t know the history of these purported jas jain pile-on tendencies. I wasn’t tryna join no pile on, but I do consider “bad form” to be bad form.
I’m afraid I was trying to provoke Jas, just a bit. Sorry, Jas.
I had an idle moment at work, and I sometimes find Jas just a wee bit pompous, and he’s freakin’ everywhere, like a Rogaine commercial. Then that ‘by making good choices and avoiding bad decisions’ axiom reminded me of my grumpa. Now, I love my grumpa, but he is 90 years old this year and has evidently only made good choices throughout his long life, and that is just intolerable to me. He sprouts boring aphorisms like a chia pet sprouts green thingies. Like a grumpy chia pet in polyester pants, that moves a bit less often, and wants porridge. You can just imagine, it’s terrible, and you can’t even eat him on a salad, because he’s all lumpy and stringy and related to me.
Geez, I took Olygal’s statement a bit more lightly; as being related to her playful S&M side.
Thanks, implosion. See, there you are: ‘All work and no screaming makes Olympiagal a dull girl.’
That’s an axiom that makes more sense, I think we can all agree.
how about since 10/05
-40% for SFH
and over -50% for the rest
“Hanley, a single parent in her 40s with a teenage daughter, makes $11.82 an hour at Disney but said she has been on medical leave recently and is falling behind. ‘At my age, I expected to have a nice little nest egg, but I hardly have any savings,’ she said. ‘It’s hard to keep up.’”
Why do hourly workers making less than $15 believe they can afford a home. That is crazy! $11.82 x 40hrs =
Um, could it be because they are constantly bombarded with messages from homebuilders, realtors, mortgage companies, etc. telling them that they can?
I still encounter people who don’t understand (or perhaps who refuse to believe) that its an affordability issue. In my experience these are usually white collar workers who think that everybody makes 70-100K per year. They really don’t believe that Joe and Jane 6 pack only make $10 per hour. Most of them insist that only teenagers work at those kind of jobs.
This has been my experience as well. Most college educated, white collar workers only interact with other college educated, white collar workers. They don’t know any couples where both spouses work and struggle to have a combined income of $50k. It has been said on this blog before, but it bears repeating, prices will stop falling when they get in line with incomes. It’s a simple formulation, but many fail to grasp it.
I make about that as a judicial law clerk. Its chump change. I don’t understand how someone could afford a house on 2.2k a month. Hah!
She got a slower internet connection…that’ll save ten bucks per month right there.
Yeah, I make barely more than that as a bus driver, and then there’s all the deductions on my check. Though the benefits are good and my rent is quite low.
33% of my income on my tax return last year was cap gains. Hopefully more this year. Hehehehe.
I wish we had a high-deductible medical insurance option so I could max out an HSA and shelter more money from taxes. Unfortunately we only have $750, so all the suck of having a pretty high deductible (that’s an entire paycheck WITH OT!!) without getting the sweet, sweet tax benefit… grrrr…
“Many of the current ones are people who, like the Diazes, are cleaning their financial slate, an option that’s increasingly acceptable in society, Fort Myers-based bankruptcy attorney Carmen Dellutri said.”
“‘All of a sudden it’s become not fashionable but OK,’ he said. ‘I think people are coming to the realization they’re not going to be able to dig their way out of that hole themselves.’”
BK-Fashionable?
We’re toast…eom.
“People who until recently had counted on home-equity lines and other forms of credit to bridge the gap between stagnant incomes and higher prices for food, gas and other items are particularly vulnerable.”
By that, they mean the American people.
” counted on home-equity lines and other forms of credit to bridge the gap between stagnant incomes and higher prices for food, gas and other items are particularly vulnerable.”
HELOC used as a bridge loan for food, gas and lack of income!! Come on Congress before you think any more about bailing out the housing market get a clue to the stench in the system. Maybe it’s time to take out the interest tax write off from the HELOC’s.
Until a few years ago, Texas was wise enough not to permit HELOCs. They had to amend their Constitution (which was passed in 1870 partially in response to carpetbaggers). Cue the new bagholders, the American taxpayer.
I frequently question the wisdom of Texas on this very specific legislation.
I don’t think Texas lawmakers have often been accused of being wise. Other adjectives are often used.
–A Texan-lurker
Repeat after me..LEARN TO LIVE WITHOUT CREDIT…LEARN TO SAY AND HEAR THE WORD “NO”..LEARN TO NOT BUY STUFF YOU REALLY DON’T NEED!!!!…
Again..I always ask myself before I purchase that “thing”..Do I really need it? 80% of the time..answer is “NO”
“Diaz said the housing bust hit his family hard: Jessica lost her $60,000-a-year job as adjuster and accountant for a construction firm and has started up a home-based specialty cake business. ”
I understand that there is some type of demand for specialty cakes, but is this really the right time to start that type of business? I would think it would be better to take a $30,00-$40,000 office job that hopefully has some medical/dental benefits, etc. I think demand for specialty cakes is probably decreasing, not increasing. This could be a tough recession; take the safe road.
But…but…that guy on the Food network has a bakery in Baltimore that makes cool cakes and he gave jobs to all his friends and has a TV show and everything.
I haven’t seen the show, but he IS one of the sponsors of the Charm City Roller Girls… But that jumped out at me too. This is NOT the time to start a business selling unneccessary items for conspicous consumption.
If she’s a good cake maker, and she targets her market correctly, e.g., families willing to shell out good money for a wedding cake, she could do quite well. But she’ll need to get some help on the business side of things — a trip to SCORE or her local Small Business Development Center would definitely be in order.
As is the case with any other small business, it’s not what you DO that will help you succeed, it’s how well you handle the business side of things.
Let them eat cake.
‘…there is some type of demand for specialty cakes, but is this really the right time to start that type of business?’
Good point, there bubbleviewer. I think a much wiser business venture would be if she opened up a candle-making boutique.
How about this -
She can’t find a job anywhere, so she’s doing the only thing she can to make money……She just calls a it a business, because it’s more fashionable than unemployment.
We know where she’s headed when BK is in vogue.
I always say being self-employed is the next best thing to being unemployed.
Can’t agree with that statement Cayo..hubby and I have been self employed for years and it has been the best thing for our family..had two children born with medical issue that required many a trip to physical therapy and specialist for years(not hereditary…one had issues at birth..the other not until age 2)..had we not become self employed I don’t think the kids would be doing as well as they are…
Wasn’t a “scrapbooking” specialty shop the side-business in one of the early foreclosure stories?
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. These people will succeed or fail based on their business acumen, not on what they do.
That’s why I recommended that they visit their local SCORE or Small Business Development Center. Then, once they get there, they should enroll in a business planning course that will help them assess the viability of their venture.
They may find that there isn’t enough of a market to support it, and, thus, they should find some other business venture or seek employment. Or they may find that there’s quite an underserved market, and that they should start their business.
True, but of course these people shown their perspecacity in the RE market…
“Jessica lost her $60,000-a-year job . . . and has started up a home-based specialty cake business.”
Good career move, Jessica. Now David, if you can just get that loan to start your very own dirigible refueling station, you’ll both be set for life.
“dirigible refueling station”
good one
Man, youse guys are harsh. I hope your kids don’t decide to become history or fine arts majors in college.
If they do, they will lie in their own bed.
I am the last person to denigrate history or fine arts. Far from it.
However, it should be recognized for what it is — a hobby or a serious hobby even, not a “major”. There are far too many “history majors” running around who can’t type a professional business letter, or know how to coordinate a business meeting.
‘However, it should be recognized for what it is — a hobby or a serious hobby even, not a “major”.’
Well, jeeze, whyncha tell me that BEFORE I got the art degree?
Actually, I had to get the art degree. That’s what my scholarship was in, and without a scholarship, I would not have gone to college. That’s it. That’s all.
(I was blessed with fundamentalist parents, and girls talking big words and wearing shoes was crazy Satan talk.)
I also worked three part-time jobs. But the scholarship started it all. I sometimes think, what would my life have been like, had I not gotten that scholarship? And then I scream wildly and swerve all over the road and fling whatever I’m drinking right out the window in sheer horror.
They’ll get cut off, lol!
Hey! I resemble that “fine art” graduate. I have a pretty successful career as a graphic artist and also as a fine artist. My parents didn’t support my decision for art school either. I tried economics but one art elective course made me realize I should do what I love and am good at. I make six figures doing what i love.
Preach it, Smudge! (Sotto voce: I do what you do. And that economics degree hasn’t hurt my art one bit.)
yeah, but the figures behind the decimal don’t count
Between my main job and freelance work i reported income between $110k and $140k for the past 5 years. Nope, not a fortune but im doing what i love as a graphic designer for a major corporation. My freelance work varies from fine art to web design. I do have to say that my freelance work has fallen off recently so I may have trouble hitting the $110k mark but i will be close.
props to you (i was just kiddin’ above). To do what you truly enjoy and do it on your own schedule is what most of us only dream of.
Good choice, Smudge. I bowed to the almighty buck, and I hate it. Undergrad in Anthropology and English did not yield any reasonable prospects, so I shackled myself to Direct Loans and went to law school. As my equally-unhappy collegue said in court this morning: “I’d trade my bar card for student loan forgiveness in a heartbeat.”
Collegue=colleague. Clearly I haven’t used that English major in awhile. Actually, I was trying to type with both of my dogs sitting in my lap.
With the benefit of 20/30 hindsight maybe I SHOULD have been a history major… If you can’t do well enough at science to go on to grad school you might as well not have bothered… But perhaps the lack of “if only”s is worth the price I paid in stress and pain and near failure.
Speaking as someone who has degrees all over the map I have to say all of my degrees have provided benefits. I’d say don’t knock a well-done history degree–some of the best legal training I ever got was from studying the Franciscan property debate.
I think the buyers can usually tell, knifecatchers though they may be.
The problem is that the bubble got so huge that what would have been a normal and fair priced home according to historical appreciation is now considered a “screaming deal”. It sucks, but I bet that the bottom will wind up being somewhat higher than the price we expect according to historical appreciation, but low enough to be considered affordable to families in the area (maybe 35% debt-to-income?). If the upcoming recession is mild, then that will keep prices higher than buyer’s would like. If the economy tanks in a big way and the credit markets do as well, then there will be some truly GOOD deals (even by historical standards).
For those of us who still have jobs, anyway….
Yeah, I loved this comment–”Buyers can’t separate the houses that are overpriced from the ones that are well-priced,” but of course, Mr. Melzer, realtwhore extraordinaire, can.
..(buyers) can’t separate the houses that are overpriced from the ones that are well-priced..
All of the factors that have driven prices down remain in full effect while the coming inevitabilities have yet to hatch..
Well-priced today = overpriced.
These people are so confused. I’m not buying a house to reward somebody for pricing it “well.” I’m not playing a game, like, “Oooo, NICELY priced, my good man! Exactly in the sweet spot, deliciously poised between too expensive and suspiciously cheap. Well played, formidable opponent! Now, where is my wallet?”
I’m buying something if 1. I want it and 2. I can afford it. Almost nothing fits category 1. and within that category exactly nothing fits category 2. So the perfection of the seller’s pricing will not change my buying behavior to suit this sad sad realtorman.
lol. Nice.
Kandy Kane, you are a gem. Your sharp wit and expert use of sarcasm are very welcome here.
Thank you for saying nice things! Yay!
Went to a Morrison development in Tampa this weekend. I asked the woman for a list of cancellations. She replied, “there are no cancellations in this development.” I replied, “you are a publicly traded company and I can review your SEC filings.” Magically, a list of spec homes appeared. I also don’t think she understood the distinction between ’sold’ and ‘closed’. Oh well…..
“there are no cancellations in this development.”
I had a realtor who played that game with me during the housing boom. What the realtors don’t understand is that we are all customers and when they play games like this with customers, the customers spread the word about the realtor.
The realtor who played the games during the housing boom is out of business since his reputation was ruined.
..reputation was ruined..
I’ll make a bold prediction: NAR will be nothing but a memory in 5 years or so..
“NAR will be nothing but a memory in 5 years or so”
Don’t quit your day job, Carnac.
Those that are widely loved have little need of a trade association. Those that are commonly reviled OTOH…
This presumes they had a good reputation to start out with. I hate to be cynical, but it is difficult to trust someone who’s sole motivation is: “Get the deal done.” (and not applicable to just real estate).
Fuzzy Bear said;
“there are no cancellations in this development.”
It’s kinda like Hotel California, song
I’m so glad this post is here today. The Sun Sentinnel is reporting 2007 to 2008 year over year decline in median values, which is slightly more accurate in my opinion. The local television news and the Palm Beach Post is using slight gains month over month to call an end to the real estate mess!
First of all, you can’t use month over month gains to consider the tide “turned” if you will. Second of all, sales continue to decline year over year making the median out of whack because the houses that are selling are higher end houses.
When will the media stop trying to spin?
You know Andy that that will never happen. Remember when they used to say that Detroit would be a good place to live because of the river?
“Detroit would be a good place to live because of the river”
Too funny - these comments are great today
‘I’ve had grown men coming into our office crying,’ Owens said.”
The market is now entering the phase where people have begun to accept the fact that their investments have lost money.
Permanently lost money. They realize that they will now have to sell the BMW and work until they are in their late 60’s or beyond, possibly for low wages to boot.
“They realize that they will now have to sell the BMW”
Conversely, someone would have to pry the title to our Ford Escape from my cold, dead fingers.
Crying beats playing the fiddle. Frankly, I would just say, “Grow a pair and deal with it Sally.”
Umm, Dime, hate to break the news to you, but if Sally’s a girl, growing a pair is biologically impossible.
After “watching” (via this blog) txchick with her trading…I would say she has bigger cajones than most of the guys I know. Make of that what you will.
‘…but if Sally’s a girl, growing a pair is biologically impossible.’
Jeeze, I don’t know…one of our county commissioners is technically a girl, but I am always expecting her to appear with a wheelbarrow, so she can carry her giant ‘pair’ around. They’re brass, too, so they must be heavy.
I post thusly because just last night at a meeting I came up with the image and jumped up and mimed the situation, to the acclaim and enjoyment of all who have to deal with her. She’s formidable, so it’s too bad she’s also joined the Dark Side.
That county commissioner is not the only one. Don’t forget Hillary.
Az… we do have a pair… they’re nestled safetly between our kidneys and our abs…
*gggg*
“Girly Man?”
“‘The county can’t do business as usual. This is an unusual situation. This is an emergency.’”
It’s funny how everyone is embracing doom and gloom these days.
I would hardly call tall grass and overgrown bushes an emergency. I hate to see what happens if we do hit a depression.
Short sales may be a large reason behind the continued drop in prices. Cause and effect, ur doin it rong.
“Mary Grace Munoz, of Cape Coral, who with her husband bought two single-family homes for $133,000 each. Her son and daughter each bought a house, she added.”
unhappy with the availability of single knives this family stepped up and got a complete set of henkels
lmao very funny darkmatter
Ooooo, and thems are SHARP too.
HEY it was a HALF PRICE SALE from the peak price
So why shouldn’t we buy 4?
We should EXPECT that housing prices across the US will drop faster than a crowbar down a well.
EXPECT many crying men coming into offices across the country for a long time.
EXPECT a continued disinformation campaign from the Fed and the Feds in the MSM. Their PsyOps is intended to make you think “turning the corner”, economically speaking, is at hand.
It is not.
The average American is strapped in for the rocket ride to Hell they never knew they bargained for, will admit to signing for, or imagined.
This is a full-blown economic DEPRESSION at hand, coming to a neighborhood theater near you, sitting on your doorstep, lips curled back, snarling, teeth showing, hungry, impatient, merciless.
“No one can possibly have lived through the Great Depression without being scarred by it. No amount of experience since the depression can convince someone who has lived through it that the world is safe economically.”
Isaac Asimov
Thank you
My grandpa and his 5 sibs lived through the depression with their widowed mother - even 70 years later he still re-used napkins until there was no sign of the original napkin, and preferred to use the give-aways from fast food to buying his own. It was cheaper that way. This man would even save one side of a pair of tweezers. There’s been nothing like the Great Depression, and the fact that even after 70 years the scars were still right there on the surface of someone who entered it at 10 and left it at age 20 should say something. If we’re headed for another one of those I weep for the common man and woman in America, even todays crackheads and welfare recipients lead lives of luxury in comparison.
I just shat on a fan after reading that.
stop scaring the children.
“I just shat on a fan.”
Oh, man! Har! And just when I thought nothing more could be done with that well-loved proverb. Many thank yous.
Speak for yourself. If things get bad, I’m going to use my computer to scam money off of nigerians to buy food with. 419 scams in reverse!
The rest of the Tampa Tribune article talks some more about the infamous Towers of Channelside, estimating that from 150 to 200 people live in its 257 units. I think even that’s an overestimate — if you drive by that soviet white elephant on a Sunday night, there aren’t more than a handful of lights on. Some unfortunate buyer interviewed for the piece also complains that the area “isn’t as vibrant” as she was led to believe. Just my opinion, but when you come down to it, living across the street from a collection of bars, a cinema multiplex, a Bennigan’s, a Cold Stone Creamery and a Hooters isn’t really that appealing unless you are renting and are a partying single young person.
Young people have been caught dead in Bennigan’s and Hooter’s (and they were not staff or managers)????
I live in Bradenton and our condo value has dropped almost in half. At it’s peak, they were selling for $160K and are down to $89K and going to auction/foreclosure instead of finding buyers. We were hoping to sell and just rent and ride out the bubble, but it doesn’t look possible now.
A lot of the other units that were for sale are now being rented instead. We aren’t seeing a huge drop in rent prices either, like I was expecting.
I do like how the realtors keep saying now is the perfect time to buy and that everything is peachy. They’re so full of it.
Sorry to hear your bad news, but find solace in that you aren’t saddled with a 400K McMansion.
Michael:
Post your information on the sptimes, blogs, (un) real estate site. I think the realtors, specifically Ralph needs to here the comments from their prospective customers.
Michael:
$160K= appox $50K in income to qualify didved by say 2000 hrs of work or $25hr. You should have known $25 a hours jobs were not plentiful in your area…
Now at $89K= 30k income or $15 hr…..many more buyers at this price point.
They are free if you can catch them being thrown off a tall building.
In all seriousness, I am starting to see a number of folks who now believe it is safe to enter the market. I hear how they “saved” 10% and such. Perhaps we will see a small bounce in prices over the spring.
And I’m sorry to say that speculators are back into the FL RE market. Some people just have money to burn.
Maybe in that area, but not in central Florida. The only stuff we see actually closing are properties on prime lots and at a loss from what the seller paid unless they’ve owned since prior to the bubble.
To whatever extent people buy properties they don’t intend to occupy, you’re correct about the use of “speculator” instead of investor. Except for crack shacks that sell for well under $100K, I don’t see any properties going for prices that would attract a professional investor. Where’s the positive cash flow going to come from? In what year?
“Perhaps we will see a small bounce in prices over the spring.”
I guarantee it. There was a spring bounce in 2006, and also in 2007 too. This year will be no different.
What most RE folks don’t say is that there is *always* a spring bounce, in median prices at least, due to a variety of factors. That’s why month-over-month numbers don’t matter - only YoY numbers.
In 2006 and 2007 the spring bounce, while it existed, was very small relative to normal spring bounces, and were followed by a horrendous drops in prices in the fall and winter. That will also continue this year, and next year.
–
“If anything, the number of bankruptcies being filed understates how bad the situation is, Phoenix said: ‘Really, the pipeline is constricted. There are only so many law firms handling bankruptcies.’”
I was talking about the builders’ pipeline problem of new supply two years ago. I wouldn’t have guessed other pipeline problems related to housing bubble burst.
Jas
I have a client who is a bankruptcy lawyer. And, lemme tell you, I’ve had more than my share of hard-to-reach clients over the years. But this lady takes the cake. She’s well nigh impossible to reach, and when I finally get a nanosecond to talk with her, herspeechsoundslikethis.
Reason for her elusiveness and speedy talk? Well, she’s a very busy lady these days.
–
I knew a bankruptcy attorney in SoCal who came up with the term (to my knowledge) — Trickle Down Poverty — based on what he was seeing. I think that he was ahead of his time, but now we will have it all across the USA.
Jas
Well said Jas. The failure of trinkle down is blatantly obvious to everyone except those who profit most.
“The failure of trinkle down is blatantly obvious to everyone except those who profit most.”
Did you mean failure of “trickle up prosperity” Reaganomics?
Jas
Correct.
I really want to get into doing bankruptcies.
“But now he sees the handwriting on the wall: Even after cleaning out his 401(k) of thousands of dollars, their problems are too overwhelming.”
Ouch… they spent down their 401(k) trying to keep the house? There are accidents, and there are mistakes, but this is suicide. Wither that, or they need a new lawyer.
Yea, these people realized they made a terrible mistake but then tried to be responsible and pay off the debt, to their own detriment. And it did not even work out then. Foreclosure/BK is part of the legal framework we live in for these types of business deals. Too bad the mortgage holders did not realize this sooner.
Today is the third anniversary of the publication of this little gem:
“In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
‘South Florida,’ he said, ‘is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.’”
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/25/business/25boom.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Never gets old.
wow 3 years
true that will never be old
if i lived in florida i would have that framed over my mantle when i do buy a house
It is more true today than then, it is a “totally new economic model”. Just not in the way envisioned.
“Ya got no money, and ya
Ya got no home
Spinnin’ wheel all alone
Talkin’ ’bout your troubles and ya
Ya never learn
Ride a painted pony,
Let the spinnin’ wheel turn”
BS&T
Great song - September 1970, I was a senior in high school. Everytime I hear that song, the same memory flashes in my mind - sitting in math class during a stifling autumn afternoon, desperately trying to keep my eyes open, while our high school band struggled (painfully) to master that song out on the football field.
Everytime I hear someone utter the phrases “new paradigm”, “new economic model” or just simply “it’s different this time”, the hairs stand up on the back of my neck - time to run screaming. The end to this disaster is not ‘just around the corner’ - it’s just begun. A couple of anecdotes to reinforce this. In 2002, the wife and I bought a condo in the middle keys for $250,000 (to actually live in full time - imagine that). By 2004, a short 2 years later, the real estate market here was going crazy. Property taxes were going up, insurance was going up and property values were going through the roof. Our condo complex, once a stable and quiet place, was changing to something we weren’t comfortable with. We put our place up for sale, and were astonished when some 30 something year old mortgage broker from Chicago (who cheerfully admitted he had no intention of living in, or even visiting the Keys) paid nearly 700K for the unit we had paid just 250K a couple of years earlier. In 2007, we noticed our old place on the market for 950K, where it languished for the entire year. Early in 2008, it vanished from the MLS, only to appear as a bankforeclosure at 850K. I guess the $1000 per month condo fees were bleeding the bank (the fees were only $475 when we sold), so they have now dropped the price back to 650K - were it now sits without any apparent offers. It will be interesting to see at what price they finally unload it - I’d bet it was under 400K at least.
We know of a marine mechanic who in 2004, against our advice, purchased a home in the Keys, at the peak, for 700K after selling his previous home for nearly a 400K profit. Instead of thanking his lucky stars for the windfall, banking it, and renting (like we are still doing) until the smoke clears, he went on a real estate buying spree (some RE agent convinced him that it was the ONLY way to wealth). If he makes more than $75,000 per year I’d be surprised, yet he purchased FIVE properties, no money down (we checked the property records), for nearly 3 million dollars. Sadly, he burned through his entire 400K windfall trying to service nearly $25,000 per month in debt, then compounded his troubles by getting a $350,000 HELOC from Countrywide in 2006 to attempt to ride out this ‘temporary’ market downturn. All his original money plus the 350K HELOC money is now gone, and he is (unsurprisingly) just now entering foreclosure.
When I look at all the idiotic ‘Save The Homeowner’ bailout plans being put forward, I realize how well and truly we are screwed. This will take years to fully resolve. Sigh.
“I think the county has allowed this area to get to such a place that I won’t be able to sell either one of my homes for what they’re worth.”
I have some good news for Ms. Marsdon. No matter what the county does, she will always be able to sell her house for what it is worth.
“she will always be able to sell her house for what it is worth.”
And this is what the reporter should have challenged her with. I would have loved to heard her response to such a question, but alas the reporter wanted to write a ‘poor me victim story’.
“Many clients, he said, ‘are doing well, but they’re bleeding themselves to death.
Oxymoron anyone?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.
Charles Dickens
‘Oxymoron anyone?’
Forget the ‘oxy’, how about just a plain old moron? Because that’s mostly what I see, when I read these articles.
–
“‘I’m getting a little bit fed up constantly lowering the price and not getting anything meaningful out of it,’ said Gordon. ‘But I guess it’s happening all over.’”
No, it is happening to people who have their heads buried in the sand. Your price reductions were not bold, or too little too late. And you seem to continue on that path. Time to change course.
Jas
–
‘Buyers are all convinced that the market’s a disaster, but they can’t separate the houses that are overpriced from the ones that are well-priced,’ Melzer said. ‘It’s very frustrating.’
Hey, Bob, all buyers can’t be stupid. There must be some who can spot a bargain on a good house, no?
Jas
I think he means that nobody thinks anything is a good deal right now. And they’d be right. He should have whined “Buyers are all convinced they shouldn’t get me a commission by committing a massive financial blunder in the current market. It’s very frustrating.”
“I’ve even done things like moved to a slower-speed Internet connection.”
Oh yeah, that’ll make all the difference between jingle mail and on-time mortgage payments.
–
“Hanley, a single parent in her 40s with a teenage daughter, makes $11.82 an hour at Disney but said she has been on medical leave recently and is falling behind. ‘At my age, I expected to have a nice little nest egg, but I hardly have any savings,’ she said. ‘It’s hard to keep up.’”
No one warned you, Kim, about the plan by our bankers and financiers to rob 30,000,000 households of all their savings and home-equity (another 30,000,000 had none to begin with). Unfortunately, you are one of the early victims and in another two years you will have lot of company. The bankers’ plan is working like a “charm.”
Jas
How about the Worldwide Tower of Terror!
Is it too late to let Florida secede?
sometimes I think global warming can’t get here fast enough
Probably won’t help Drysdale. Mean level above sea level in Florida is 100 ft. Over the last century, the rise in the sea level has only been about 8 inches.
you mean ‘recede’ into the ocean?
Florida won’t secede, they’re loving the free federal monies too much…
I think this country is closer than it ever was since 1861, to states seceding from the union…
Once the free federal lunch counter closes down, is when we’ll see what happens.
“David and Jessica Diaz are looking forward to regaining the American dream after they file the bankruptcy this week forced on them by Lee County’s housing industry collapse.”
You a lot of “bankruptcy forced on them” stories.
but nothing is forced on anyone who takes out “$7,000 a month in mortgages on two homes”
My wife and I were “shutout” of the housing market in Massachusetts. And by shutout I mean we didn’t want to take out a loan that we couldn’t afford.
The Diaz’s are the kind of idiots we were bidding against (God that sounds crazy now) back in 2002-05.
this one got my goat, too:
“‘People are just beat up right now,’ said the Diazes’ attorney, Charles Phoenix of Fort Myers. ‘It used to be you lost your job or some asset failed — now they’re getting it from every direction. Their house has fallen in value, and worst of all that’s offset by a huge debt they can never hope to pay off.’”
I am doing quite well, thank you very much. None of this housing bubble bullcrap has effected my general life-style whatsover. I just didn’t agree to buy 2 overpriced houses. I have been on the sidelines since 2003. Waiting. Watching. Laughing.
It has slowed down my plans, but then, I wasn’t expecting to profit by stealing a house out from under a real homeowner in hopes of selling it back to them for $100,000 profit.
These people deserve what they get. In fact they have been given more than they deserve.
–
‘The county can’t do business as usual. This is an unusual situation. This is an emergency.’
Yes, Regina, as a result of the housing debacle now our country would have to be run on an emergency basis for years to come. Needless to point out that none of these emergencies were hard to anticipate.
Jas
Good thread.
I live in Bradenton, Florida and I can tell you from observation the local builders and developers are continuing to build and develop.
well, i live (and invest) in Sarasota - CrackerJim is correct that local builders are continuing to build and develop (based on loan commitments obtained early in 2007, or before). What is NOT happening is that builders and developers selling what they are building. A lot of dumb (and greedy) money went into the real estate market in Sarasota/Manatee - most of it will never emerge.
This is still a disaster area, in all but the real Gulf and bayfront homes (not condos).
“a $200 administrative fee.”
Gotta keep those outrageous administrative fees for five minutes of paper work rolling in. How else will they fund more useless government agencies?
What I love were the revelations that certain state employees had “retired”, received pension, and returned to their old job, held open for them, and started earning a new pension. Some are even “triple-dipping”.
While a few of the “double-dippers” are teachers who had retired but were convinced to return (supposedly) by school system short on hires (I work with someone who retired, changed careers, hated it, and came back when they were desperate for drivers, so she gets pension + salary, which is lame, but I don’t think so unfair… we need her; she is extremely good at what she does)
No, what gets me are the high level admin workers, many pulling down 6 figures already, who “left” only to get their DROP set and returned 6 wks later or whatever.
And it turns out STATE LEGISLATORS are doing this as well, so there is “no way” they can prevent this practice.
Some are said to be working on their “third career” (15 years of service) in government.
THIS IS SICK.
Meanwhile, these clowns get 5% of my paycheck and I will probably NEVER see it!
“Ultimately, he said, ‘The moral of the story is sometimes things are just out of your hands. You’ve just got to go with the flow.’
Is that the moral? I thought it was that a fool and his money are soon parted. Good luck with that flow thing.
Does anybody else get the idea that Florida is like the USA, only much more so?
Florida represents the “fleshy” parts of the USA. i.e. no backbone or brain.
Which is why so many people are intent on getting tans in Florida (much to our dismay, in the case of 60+ year-old folks). No such thing as a tan for backbone or brain.
Florida = flesh (getting sunburnt)
Flyover country = backbone (getting arthritis)
Coastal cities = brain (on drugs)
Hawaii = little toe, I guess
Anyone want to speculate on what one or two decent hurricanes would do to the Florida housing market given its current condition. Imagine thousands of damaged homes with leaking roofs left to rot by underwater borrowers. ( pun intended)
I believe the rot has already set in…
It would be Homestead all over again (post-Andrew). Not a pretty sight.
“All these projects have something else in common: vanishing buyers. Developers say buyers either wouldn’t close because the market had changed or couldn’t close because they no longer qualified for loans. Others were speculators or just lost hope in the projects.”
You can add “or already maxed out with ten other condos they are trying to sell” to the list.
The myth of buyers waiting in the wings for lower prices is becoming more obvious every day. The reality is the pool of qualified buyers is very small today the bubble has eaten its young so to speak.
What this does mean is that people who are able to buy should be very careful because of the bubble and demographics i.e baby boomers retiring and things like peak oil and tight commodity markets etc we can expect the housing market to decline for the foreseeable future. This means if you have to sale you probably will be taking a loss for the next 20 years at least.
My attitude is I have to figure out what I’m willing to lose and buy vs rent. So I have figured for myself I could handle a loss of 20k fairly easily. You also have to figure out the cost of building a new house this should be fairly sticky even if land values drop dramatically. The net result at least for me is I’m looking for prices to go down to around 100k for a 1400-2000sqft 3/2 — 4/2 and/or price per square foot down around 60-100. I think that around 60 or so they would be well under the cost to build new and thus you finally get some price stability.
A good route is looking at dead markets like Toledo Ohio over the next year or so to see how low housing goes. These markets where bad in the bubble and you need to see how bad they get now to get a handle on what in store for the rest of the country.
Assuming a comparable rent of 1000 gives about 5,000 a year saved if you buy at this low level so even if prices fall another 50% i.e we hit a serious depression your still not all that bad off if you spend between 50k and 100k for a house. At those prices they make sense.
Close itallics.
“The asking price was $239,000 when the house, built in 2001, hit the market last October, but now stands at $138,000, she said.”
Send this up north to PA, please.
“Many clients, he said, ‘are doing well, but they’re bleeding themselves to death. One gentleman said, ‘I spent $100,000 in the past year keeping up these investments.’”
Loved that one, too.
So, now, at last, you really are an “investor”.
Congratulations.
close italics
This seemed appropriate for the FL thread:
From CNN - http://cbs4.com/local/crane.accident.miami.2.684432.html
Nice to see osha is on top of things.
Glad to see they got a quick plug in for the project among all that superfluous talk of death:
“The Paramount Bay condo is a highrise 346-unit luxury complex. The 46-story building is located on Biscayne Bay and next to Margaret Pace Park.”
Units are priced from $850,000, according to a real estate website
Hanley, a single parent in her 40s with a teenage daughter, makes $11.82 an hour at Disney but said she has been on medical leave recently and is falling behind. ‘At my age, I expected to have a nice little nest egg, but I hardly have any savings,’ she said. ‘It’s hard to keep up.’”
How the heck did she even buy the darn house. My daughter makes more than this and she barely qualify for an apartment which require 3 x income to rent cost for her to move in. Jeez people are not even aware there income does not allow them to be home owners
I don’t feel a bit sorry for any of these people. If they didn’t know that the real estate wasn’t worth what they paid for it, they do now. They should mail their keys back to their lender and get on with their life. As for prices now being “reasonable”? I don’t think so. Down another 40% and I’ll come take a look. Otherwise, my money stays in the bank.
Even if housing prices appear to bottom in 2009 - 2010, they will still be falling in inflation-adjusted terms for years.
By 2015, one will be able to buy a median home in the U.S. for 25 ounces of gold or 500 ounces of silver.
It’s good to keep your powder dry, John, but I would not keep your wealth in Federal notes as real inflation is running at 10% and will likely climb over the next 10 years. (shadowstats.com)
“‘We’re seeing that beginning offers are low even if the house is priced appropriately,’ said broker Michael Taylor.
What the hell is wrong with these people?! Obviously the offers aren’t “low”, the price is too high!
I’m still dumfounded when I meet people who look at websites like “zillow” and honestly believe their personal fortunes are falling (or rising a couple of years ago) as the numbers change!
Houses, like nearly anything else, are only worth what someone will pay for them (minus 6% commission, of course!)
“David and Jessica Diaz are looking forward to regaining the American dream after they file the bankruptcy this week forced on them by Lee County’s housing industry collapse.”
“‘I never in a million years thought this could happen to me,’ said David Diaz, who’s working overtime to stay afloat while paying almost $7,000 a month in mortgages on their new Cape home and their home in Lehigh Acres they’ve been unable to sell.”
Sadly, in the end they’ll get the American dream while I get a nightmare! They’ll blow 100s of thousands of dollars in credit, not have to repay it or pay income tax on forgiven debt, and declare BK. And when they retire, because they have no savings, the rest of America will have to pay for them.
Here’s a news flash for Regina Marston, whose comments on the Volusia County government’s code enforcement efforts was: “I think the county has allowed this area to get to such a place that I won’t be able to sell either one of my homes for what they’re worth.”
Regina, your 2 rental properties are probably not worth 50% of what you think they are. They are probably worth substantially less than your mortgages. So, you are now officially welcomed to investor hell. That’s the place you go so that you can spend a couple of years bankrupting yourself while you try to stave off bankruptcy from being overleveraged.
“Many of the current ones are people who, like the Diazes, are cleaning their financial slate, an option that’s increasingly acceptable in society, Fort Myers-based bankruptcy attorney Carmen Dellutri said.”
“‘All of a sudden it’s become not fashionable but OK,’ he said. ‘I think people are coming to the realization they’re not going to be able to dig their way out of that hole themselves.’”
Spoken like a true lawyer, a criminal lawyer at that. No, these “Diazes” are the same dolts that bought into the NBC-ABC-CBS storyline that it was OK to hock the rest of your life because real estate ALWAYS goes up and you will retire rich if you drown in debt. They couldn’t see the train because they were blinded by the light.
These people sicken me with their whining. There are alot of honest hard-working people like me who didn’t go eye level into debt but will be stick with footing the cost, one way or another, of saving these people’s asses.
“‘All of a sudden it’s become not fashionable but OK,’ Yea right buddy. What a P-O-S.
Some asked why are rentals stacking up if they are cheaper than buying a house. Well of course they are cheaper since you don’t need a bank or loan company to rent, and the easy loans are more or less a thing of the past (likely forever). But why are rentals stacking up? Simple: many articles have dealt with it. More and more people who lose their homes are returning to their parent’s houses. People are stacking up - with more going in as room-mates. In many places tent cities of people who lost their homes are growing in size.
just beginning guys, 50% devaluation or more in Florida before we are done. I love the guys that think this is just being negative, come on this is stock market AND housing falling off the cliff together……..investors are buying like the stock purchasers the week before the big market fall in the depression, how happy will they be when the property falls another 30%, what kind of deal did they get………..no taxes to the cities and states mean schools close, maintenance isn’t done, taxes rise on the good people, etc., this is just beginning, strap in………….
16 years ago I bought my first house, put down 5% and paid PMI for a year until I paid down additional equity to get it to 20% to cancel the PMI and escrow. Just last month, a non-immigrant worker where I work put down less than 5% plus got a second mortgage on his first home, thus avoiding PMI and getting a tax break in addition (though he does have to pay the second mortgage of course).
I am sorry to hear the stories of people’s losses but speculating in 2007 means you weren’t reading signs of the tragedy to come.
The disease is still rampant and the patient is still sick.
it is a crime that the government pays the banks for there looses in short sales …it supports a growing supply on homes and dropping prices which force more home owners to foreclosures…
the right way would be the banks take the responsibility for there greedy mistakes and forecloses by them self. the government shout not pay the banks for looses in forecloses, it would be better to keep the people in there houses and to offer them a 30 years mortgage with an interest rate they can afford which is between a 4 and 5 % interest rate - this would keep the people in there homes and the market would become more stable in supply and demand !!! but it seems the politician have to much $$$ support in the election campaign from the banks and pay back the banks with favors… it is just crime and we all pay for it with our tax $$$ and in the foreclosures and in still the high property taxes … so we pay 3 times for the mistakes of the greedy banks and the corrupted politician
A former loan processor, Guerrero knows all about that, although so far she has been able keep her house. She used her tax refund to help pay many of her bills for the first two months, but now that money’s gone. She says she’s now in a middle-class “no-man’s-land.”
I have news for you, Ms. Guerroro, $70k in California does not make you middle class, especially if you’re divorced. The other thing that doesn’t make you middle class in California is being a loan officer. Those jobs today go to high-school graduatues who do little more than enter false information into a computer. I know this is a little harsh, but if Ms. Guerrero wants the luxury of having a house, car, nice clothes, kids, and no husband, then she is going to have to get a real carreer. I’m certainly not going to pay for it.