Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For March 28, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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2nd copper fencing ring nabbed in Cleveland. 1st group used computer printouts of foreclosures to target homes to rip copper off. This group went to the sheriff’s office & copied addresses by hand.
Jim Cramer and the Fed and doing a better job:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sZCNlPwG8o
–
As long the Fed helps his hedge funds buddies, Jimmie is happy.
Jas
Jas, if I understand correctly, your an economists. Can any nation survive at anytime that it has lost its manufacturing base and has a net negative export flow? The only situation that comes to mind is Rome, I we all know where that turned out (of course it took hundred’s of years and empire).
Just an opinion requested, since I suspect you could not find the time or Ben the space for a full justification of your opinion.
–
Lostcontrol,
I am a self-taught econ-crank. I have never taken a single course in economics in all my life. I have a Ph.D. in EE (Signal processing) and I do have couple of very successful technologies to my credit (used in MPEG and VoIP).
A nation, like a family, can survive on legacy, or inheritance, for a while after what made it great, or successful, dies out over-time. Americans are well on the path to eat away their inheritance. How long this process takes could be a matter of heated debates. I am on the pessimistic side because I think that the destruction of the middle-class is a very dangerous social condition for a society like ours.
As the middle-class is expanding in some Asian countries ours is definitely contracting. Pushing of the Debt has been the biggest factor that will lead to a severe contraction (more than half) of the American middle-class. Pushing of the Debt was the most profitable activity for our economic elite – bankers and financiers. Unfortunately, they got full support from the Fed and the USG in their pursuit. Those who were supposedly there to protect us from sharp practitioners screwed us.
Jas
Thank you for your opinion from someone who still doesn’t understand how economics works from the macro standpoint.
RE: destruction of the middle-class
50% of births to women under the age of 30 are now out of wedlock.
And all paid for by a dying middle class.
USA, no more Numba #1, GI.
The USA still has immense resources of talent & material, mostly going unused at the moment.
I know many Americans who meet Robert Heinlein’s definition: A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly.
There has been a massive misallocation of resources & a gang of pirates has essentially taken over the economy, this can be changed peacefully.
“Ph.D. in EE (Signal processing)”
Better training than most economists possess…
“Ph.D. in EE (Signal processing)”
… a hearing aid salesman’s worst nightmare
What’s funny is that dumbasses will end up buying these things sight unseen at a foreclosure auction and we’ll read articles where they are boasting about their investment savvy. Never will there be a correction printed once the truth comes to light - a truth involving stripped copper, fire or flood damage, and an encrustation of dung deposited by several tribes of homeless who occupied the thing at various times while it sat nominally vacant.
nor will the Foreclosure Seminar salesmen alert their students to this possibility. Lately local media has been bombarded with Make Money in Foreclosure ads. And sheeple are signing up, all adrool, to make their fortune in foreclosures.
Good. The System needs the money.
Gawd. I just found out that my brother and his wife just bought a foreclosure. In *MODESTO*. FOR *$300,000.00+*.
I practically begged him not to. I sent him here to read this blog. I layed out all the fundamentals and how much someone would have to make to be able to afford to buy the thing when he goes to sell it.
He still caught the falling knife anyway.
At the very least though, he did it with a downpayment and a 30yr fixed. Not much consolation though if the thing’s worth $150K in a few years.
Real Estate: The Great Wealth Re-distribution Machine.
“I just found out that my brother and his wife just bought a foreclosure. In *MODESTO*. FOR *$300,000.00+*.”
You did all you could. If someone is hellbent on shooting himself in the foot, all you can do is plug your ears and watch. Then drive them to the ER.
But, yeah, Modesto? Ew.
I am starting to think that the Housing Bubble and Bust is just like the pointless up-and-down casino of the stock market. It is no longer about actual value, but about making money on the swings in perceived value while sticking the next sucker with the bill. Sad that this is what we’ve become as a nation.
My former landlady bought a foreclosed property with two houses on it. The property was sold at auction on the Pima County Courthouse steps.
Then the fun began.
She had to come up with payment in full within 24 hours. And she couldn’t inspect the interiors of the houses before they were hers. That proved to be a real problem, because both places required many years and many thousands of dollars worth of work.
Mind you, this gal was pretty handy, but she wasn’t too thrilled about having to catch up on the former owner’s deferred maintenance. Having to redo his shoddy repair work didn’t make her day either.
I guess they don’t factor in the recycling by thieves.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8jtLSxIdqK4&refer=home
Hands Off…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aHacfhqvht2Q&refer=economy
What happened to the policy of taking away the punchbowl just as the party gets going?
Sounds like it may be on the way back in…
‘For Fed policy makers, “the consequences of their permissiveness have become so disastrous that they simply can’t keep singing the same old tune in public,” said Tom Schlesinger, executive director at the Financial Markets Center in Howardsville, Virginia.’
“Fed officials have spent years wrestling with how to prevent bubbles without damaging the economy through high interest rates, and few have come up with an answer.”
Here’s me at one of those meetings with about 20 PHDs:
Well..uh..I’m just a regular joe..but..ahh.. how about we require 10% down for mortgages…and…err…how about we require investment banks to have at least 10% of equity….but I don’t have phd so what do I know?
And, uh, have the borrowers prove they have a job, or, uh, maybe some other way of, uh, making payments.
Try 25% down, good income ratio, good credit, high interest rates.
….due diligence that the numbers on the application aren’t fantasy….
Try 25% down, good income ratio, good credit, high interest rates.
What’s cool is that almost everyone who meets these criteria already owns a house, so there goes the already dwindling pool of potential buyers!
“Fed officials have spent years wrestling with how to prevent bubbles . . . .”
Except Greenspan essentially indicated that he has no clue how to detect a bubble, much less prevent one.
How about too. We change our public education system to provide for truly educated individuals, with a strong background in the basics, and no more of this feel-good, socialization BS. Maybe even have some real standards instead of the constantly sliding scale. Have graduates who can reasonable determine the difference between a pig and a poke. Maybe even understand basic mathematics and how to figure interest rates, sunk cost and more then just “what’s my monthly payment”.
this would result in the ‘re-segregation’ of the public schools, based on academic scores.
It is the reason that standards were thrown out, so that everyone from every racial group could pass.
Your proposal will be stopped by the educational lobby and the gerimandered houses of government.
The other problem with this proposal is that it is much harder to fleece and control an educated population vs. a society composed of selfish, stupid, over-medicated consumer-locusts.
beer me, this consumer locusts needs much liquid moneys.
““I have always said if we could defuse a nascent asset bubble, I would be all for it,” Greenspan, 82, said in an e- mailed response to a question yesterday. “The reason I am against is that in my experience it cannot be done. I know of no occasion when such actions have been successful.”
He added, ‘oh but I think it worked for that Volcker guy’
It amazes me that Volcker is a year younger than Greenspan. Everyone is younger than A.G. Apparently you progress from Banker of the Blue, through Banker of the White, to Banker of the Red, to Chairman of the Fed…
RE: It amazes me that Volcker is a year younger than Greenspan
And everybody’s whining about McCain’s age.
Like he can do any more damage than what’s been done.
With the color references, I am now thinking of the Wizards from the Lord of the Rings. I guess Greenspan would be an even older and more deranged Saruman the White, but one who can’t speak clearly.
What would that make Bubbles Ben Bernanke?
Grima Wormtoungue.
oops - should be Grima Wormtongue.
I was thinking of Royal Navy admirals, who historically cycled through the various admiral grades (denoted by colors for the different portions of the seniority “list”) based solely on seniority. As long as they could live long enough outlasting everyone else, they were guaranteed to make it to the top of the list.
try 40% off ask, 40% down and a 15yr mortgage.
that gets it done.
next question. thats calls the bottom in any hause.
Larry Ellison - public enemy no. 1
http://blogs.wsj.com/biztech/2008/03/27/larry-ellisons-tax-cut-breaks-schools-budget/?mod=MostPopular?mod=fpa_blogs
He’s the only one who pays in Portola Valley? What about the rest of the taxpayers who also probably got their property reassessed as well?
No fan of Mr. Ellison here either but whither fairness in reporting?
And how much did the school district hike their spending when the assessments went up over the past few years?
or raise benefits you can never cut.
Coming your way, txchick57…
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/28/census_texas_leads_in_population_gains
But but but….everyone here says Taxes are 3% per year of the value..$6K…hmmm $500 a month taxes plus mortage plus maybe HOA plus plus plus…
Let’s ask her next year and see if it really was a great move.
—————————
Ann Sekesan, a pharmacy technician, moved her family from Pennsylvania to suburban Fort Worth in June after seeing spacious homes in Texas for under $200,000 on a television show.
“After we saw that on TV, my husband and I looked at each other and said, ‘Have you ever been to Texas?’ ” Sekesan said. “It’s amazing the size of a home you can get down here. It’s just incredible.”
“It’s amazing the size of a home you can get down here. It’s just incredible.”
True. But then you have to pay to cool it. And buy gas to drive to that far-flung suburb. Having a big house isn’t everything.
Yes, yes, yes! A exurban house may be cheap, but living there is not. Energy & maintenance for that behemoth in the boondocks will eat you alive. Not to mention the quality of life issues associated with a two-hour a day commute. I’d rather have a small house within walking distance of work, a grocery & the kids’ schools. In the face of rising energy costs, prime communities will be easily accessible to employment centers, shopping, excellent schools & public transportation. The exurbs are doomed.
Friends in Dallas, Coppell, Arlington etc all state that the electricity is eating them alive, all due to the state allowing the electric co to privatize and charge up the wazoo. And the drive times are long.
Not that cheap.
The big utility was on the verge of putting in several high tech coal plants but they were bought out, and that plan canceled.
So we continue burning finite supplies of very dense liquid energy in fixed power plants that is better used in flying machines that can’t run on coal.
[rant off]
And our Dallas area January electric bill was 50% higher than any month in the last 12, even though we were out of town for the last 10 days of the month. Darn cold here this year. And March 27th, highs were in the mid 80’s so the spring electric bill respite was pretty short this year.
Hilarious! I just talked to a friend the other day who has a million dollar mortgage in Portola Valley. I was struck speechless. That must be very stress-inducing. On the other hand, they asked for it.
Ellison’s house in Woodside was assessed at $79 million in 2004, so dropping the assessment from $173M to $70M doesn’t seem unreasonable. IMO this is actually poetic justice, since the city planning board gave him permission to dismantle a Julia Morgan masterpiece to build this behemoth. Good article about the history of the house here:
http://tinyurl.com/2fo4b7
I saw that on tv while back, and the original home was exquisite. And then there was that asshat, Ellison in front saying this will be the last time you see this, and I believe my home of bazillion square feet will be better.
As a secret architect junkie, I loved that original, and was apalled at his ignorant audacity.
Thanks for the historical link.
The FED is lending billions to the banks at minicule rates and taking on toxic mortgages as collateral. What would happen if they opened the window to prime consumers? What would happen if you or I could get a 30 year mortgage at say 1.5%? Seems like money better spent to me. Betting it would get a lot of people off the sidelines.
That’s why house prices haven’t gone down much. As long as theres talks of bailouts, people have hope. If any bailout comes to pass, house prices could permanently be inflated
As long as home prices remain inflated, there is a political rationale for lending industry bailouts, in order to help would-be buyers “afford” to buy homes. Look at current foreclosure rates for an indication of how well these programs to artificially prop up demand by putting bigger loans into the hands of unqualified borrowers have worked out thus far.
“house prices could permanently be inflated”
Not really, because most people still couldn’t afford a huge mortgage, no matter what the rate.
House prices right now make them a terrible investment. ‘nuf said. Whether they go up, down, or stay the same in the furture doesn’t matter, whatever happens will happen when it does. Today, put your money in good investments, not bad ones.
(…with one caveat– if the Fed does ever start printing loads of currency then actually they were a good investment after all if you could buy them on leverage =/)
Nope. As long as home prices are inflated, more housing will be built than people need to live in. There’s only one outcome to that, and it’s not permanently inflated prices.
Logically, yes, but I could see them tossing everything into the Fed or the GES’s, and then somehow funding things with taxpayer’s money. The result would be hyperinflation, followed by a crash and a Depression that would make the last one look like fun.
So, from that viewpoint, it won’t “work” in the sense of keeping housing prices high, but I’d really prefer if they didn’t try this since it would make the endgame even worse.
Well if they left BS to fail and stood back as the counterparties weakened and spread their hurt to still others, supposedly we’d be spending our spring watching our world banking system collapse.
Credit sources would dry up and even if that didn’t happen immediately I’m not sure if I’d buy a house at zero% if I saw banks closing around me left and right.
I’m not sure I’d want any mortgage around my neck if things got too dark. I’d preserve my job mobility.
The more I hear this scare tactic, and the more I think about who benefits, the more I suspect this apocalyptic scenario is just to keep the voters quiet and compliant. I mean, I haven’t seen one example of a large economy-affecting organization that would have been destroyed had BS flamed out without government intervention.
It’s called “F.U.D.” in other circles. I think “F.U.D.” is a relatively new term…I’m not a linguistic historian but my impression is it came along with the technology culture.
But whatever the name politicians have been using it for centuries. It’s how they justify their existance. If there is nothing wrong then they would have nothing to “fix”.
“The more I hear this scare tactic, and the more I think about who benefits, the more I suspect this apocalyptic scenario is just to keep the voters quiet and compliant.”
You hit it on the head, Neuro…. usually, they say it will harm “the economy”, and “the economy” means the elite that runs the country. That wore thin, so now they call the elite “the economic system”. Heaven forbid anything should ever happen to them, we’d all be toast. Make your check payable to “JP Morgan Chase”….
You are so right. I realized this was FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt–refers to Microsoft’s tactic for getting rid of competitors, actually started with IBM, I think…anyway!) this past week while I was driving my bus.
Remember when BCCI collapsed? Remember when you lost your job and you were living in a shanty-town and you spent all morning at the unemployment office and all afternoon at the soup line just to hear there were no jobs and the soup was potato peels with moldy carrots surprise and the pain in your belly became your new best friend?
No?
BCCI was as big as Bear, maybe bigger, IIRC.
Good morning Ben and Txchick57. Looks like we are the only ones up at this time of the morning (4:13am CA time).
I am currently taking a chem and physics class at my local jc. You can’t believe the amount of expensive electronic equipment either we use or available for other classes. In our one class room, 4 desk top computers. They also have about 15 laptops (apple, $2,000 each).
When I took physics and chem in college 40+ years ago, all we had were slide rulers and in physics lab we used the TV tube to observe measure defections.
Anyway, school officials and the general public were sold a bad bill of goods on all this hi tech gimzos that really incidential to teaching.
O, by the way, half the kids walk around with I guess are Ipods/music. Totally oblivious to whats going on around them.
Just observations at the local jc.
“When I took physics and chem in college 40+ years ago, all we had were slide rulers and in physics lab we used the TV tube to observe measure defections.”
And you got a better education because everybody didn’t expect technology to do their job for them.
–
Technology is covering up, or giving rise to, to the increasing stupidity?
Jas
Neither.
There are basic principles and then there is technology.
There is no great glory to a “slide rule”. A set of “log tables” can do it better, just as fast, and using the same principle (”convert everything to addition/subtraction which you can do really fast manually”)
Once the principle is grasped, I have no problems with technology. Of course, you can’t grasp the principle without actually “doing it” so let’s say for argument you make the kids do it for a month, and then move on to a more modern tune. That way, they grasp the principle without the sadistic backwardness.
Of course, hardly any school principals or teachers get this so they are sold all this hoo-hah.
Well log tables sure are better (ie more accurate) than a slide rule, but faster?
Well, the log table is more accurate and I can get the order of magnitude right in my head, so how does the sliding thing help any?
I believe the word “computer” originally described the soulless drones who used pencil & paper to painfully generate the numbers that filled the original logarithm tables. Kids ought to do this once when they first use log tables.
“Technology is covering up, or giving rise to, to the increasing stupidity?”
Technology is causing wage deflation here in America. easy to outsource jobs with the internet, etc.
Actually when I was eighteen years old, a long long time ago, I was distracted (read 1960′) so I switch majors (political science) after a short interlude in Viet Nam. From a War in America to a War in Vietnam to return to a War in America.
Looking back, I wonder how I ever graduated (read UC Berkeley).
lol
I disagree!!! I think technology has its purpose and if utilized appropriately can leverage knowledge and learning. My daughters school (built 3 years ago) has a computer pod in the center of several classrooms. They do computer based self paced learning. It quizes them and the answers they get wrong are the basis for their lesson plan that day. it gives individualized training and the teacher a good weekly assessment on what the teacher needs to go over as a group and what they are wasting their time going over.
Also, this website is technology based and I have learned a ton via it. Go to wikipedia, google earth or other sites. I used to have a race with my mother in law on how quickly we could find answers to questions we were talking about in their living room. She no longer challenges me since I win each and every time and provide a much broader scope of information about whatever the subject is.
Yeah that’s right, you need all that fancy equipment to keep up with the Indians and the Chinese… Haven’t you heard, every Indian and Chinese student has a macbook?
The remedy for the broken schooling system is to keep things simple but honest. Unfortunately that involves not so nice things like tests, competition and punishment.
While most American students (at least the middle class ones) have a laptop/notebook of their own, these are usually bargain basement windoze machines ($500 or less). I don’t know a single kid who has a MacBook.
We have a Mac-Mini at home. Its been great. Going on 2 years and its been trouble free. Plus none of that lethargy that windows boxes get after a while, and which usually results in having to re-install the OS every 12 months or so.
Hey, wait a minute! I teach physics at a university. I use computers as data analysis and acquisition tools in teaching lab and as homework/testing tools in lecture. I cannot do without them. If it weren’t for the electronics I couldn’t properly perform nuclear decay experiments in the basic teaching labs (Ba137m decays). I don’t know what everyone else is doing, but please don’t take my computers and electronics away. I can do so much more with them that than without them. I have ultrasonic distance detectors that I can use to calculate the velocity (it can derive motion toward or away) and acceleration of objects like carts, balls, and students. Force probes using the hall effect and magnets along with the distance detectors are great for periodic motion experiments. NO! I need my gadgets.
Roidy
Roidy,
I am talking freshman and sophmore physics, not upper division or graduate studies.
You want to know what we use all this electronic equipment for at my level? Software programs that show the relationship between acceleration, velocity and distance traveled in one dimension. The same program is on the internet for free called “ActivPhysics.com”.
The costs of the program is built into the college textbook for the higher level physics text.
I have got to say, however, that the computer program attached to motion sensor to calculate velocity is worthwhile when used to calculate/relationship between the distance traveled at the base of a sudden drop off and the initial horizonal velocity (Read Newton’s laws with regard to gravity. However, the instructor could of provided a demonstration, and the student’s could record the results and write the lab report, analysis. This would save precious funds not spent on freshman students who fumble around due to lack of training on the equipment, the software or the screw ups that occurred when inexperienced students attempt to prove a law.
All I am saying is that technology expenditure for beginning students is/was a waste of the tax payer’s money that could have been spent on smaller class sizes and better qualified teachers.
One final point about qualified teachers/professors, no matter what is in the written textbook, the feed back from the students and the insite of the professors on a subject not extensively covered in the text is worth the effort. imho
Sophomore physics?
The real waste is in elementary school. How many school basements are full of rotting iMacs because some administrator was enchanted by visions of all the “interactive learning” that the Tangerine Machine could bring them?
There is SOME value to interactive learning with software. But is it worth spending all that time and money on it, or risk confusing the kids with learning how to think for themselves vs. puppetnig the brain of Bill Gates (or, in schools, puppeting the brain of Steve Jobs)?
You’re better spending money on better teaching (and, dare I say it, disciplinary methods so that the few bad apple kids don’t waste the time needed for the rest of the class.)
Your comments about fumbling around with lab equipment that never works or the students are never trained to use brought back an old joke of mine: “The purpose of any collge or high school lab is to illustrate that no law of nature can be proven.”
Obviously, not literally true, but after fumbling around with lousy equipment for hours under the “instruction” of a TA who can’t speak English or who just didn’t care, the end result was usually something far away from the actual laws of reality. But we’d just write up the report anyway and hope for a passing grade - such fun!
I got to say though, I have a brilliant professor (should be teaching at the university level). He is old school. He is seriously concerned about theory and its practical applications (In his examples, in rounds up gravity to 10 to make the relationships easier to understand). He doesn’t give a f@#k really about the answer off the calculator as you can correctly evaluate the question and use the correct logic/laws/formulas to arrive at the correct solution. I suspect he has a negative bias to number crunchers.
He is old school. Educated in the former Soviet Union. Parents and other relatives were/are mathematicians and engineers.
Smart as wipe. Could give his lectures in his sleep! At the jcollege level, he is a steal from an education standpoint.
I took several advanced physics courses in college (ie, nuclear structure, solid state, quantum mechanics, etc) but these were all theoretical. Lots and lots of math (which as a math major is why I took them) but no labs. Very fundamental courses but all heavy duty in mathematical physics theory. And enjoyed them tremendously. For that kind of physics you don’t need all the latest (hmmm, maybe not any) gizmo tech toys, just a good aptitude in the subjects.
Gosh, we learned that from the professor holding a bowling ball on a rope to his nose at one end of the lecture hall and letting it go to swing 50 feet acroiss the room and back to (almost) his nose. Lucky for the physics prof that he wasn’t doing the experiment in vacuum like they usually like.
Sure. But can your student actually do the math required to figure it out themselves? I think that is the point. What good is a fancy box that does the work for you if you truly don’t understand how it arrives at the ANSWER. Why, with all these “gadgets” have we not figured a viable way to leave petrol in the ground where it belongs? Can your gadget answer that one for me?
I used to teach basic numeracy at an Adult Education Institute back in the UK, and my one stipulation for at least half of the first semester was “no calculators!” (this was back in the day before cell phones and laptops).
Oh, the gnashing of teeth and the flailing!
How can we possibly do all this complicated arithmetic without a calculator?!?!?
How could you be so cruel!!
Funny thing was - after about 6 weeks - they’d completely forgotten about their calculators.
When the time came to re-introduce them (around about the time we started using Real numbers), most them had got the point - it doesn’t matter how fancy-schmancy your calculator is - if you don’t know what’s going on under the hood.
You sound like a Super Hero in the making!
Slider rulers and tv tubes?? Back in my day we used to have to rub our saber tooth tigers really fast to generate our own electrons. None of that fancy TV for us. Of course classes were a lot easier as there weren’t as many elements back then, just earth, fire, water, and air. I also wore an onion on my belt, as that was the style of the times.
Skip, I love your twisted sense of humor. Keep up! Sometimes we need levity!
Which is a worse investment, stocks or real estate?
Bad for the buy and hold crowd. Been a bumper couple of years for traders and option premium sellers.
Why do you suppose so much effort is put into telling you you can’t time the market. The hell you can’t.
I concur. Those employing first order (buy-and-hold) strategies are screwed (”Why don’t my stocks ever leave this trading range?”). Those employing second order (volatility-based) strategies have a perpetual money machine.
KBH misses earnings in a huge way. The market is sure to rally on this clear sign that the bottom is in.
“Those employing second order (volatility-based) strategies have a perpetual money machine.”
That sounds like a great life, sitting with 3 screens logged into thinkorswim all day. No thanks.
the day ends at 3 pm CST and you don’t have to kiss anyone’s a$$ or beg for vacation time. I’ll take it.
3 screens wouldn’t cut if for me.
I’d much prefer it to what I’m doing, now, being at the mercy of someone else.
Ditto Txchick too. I get one freakin’ week of vacation time a year. Nice place to work, but what a crock.
RE: I get one freakin’ week of vacation time a year. Nice place to work, but what a crock.
Don’t wake up @ 50 and say WTF was I doin’.
My father always use to say time goes fast.
I never believed until the big post 50 years rolled around.
Now I think my appraisal biz goin’ down the crapper was the best thing that ever happened. Bank account is kinda thin, but freedom never comes cheap.
I’m working on it, hd. I tell my kids the same thing.
My day of liberation is coming, just not sure when yet. Gotta replace my current income and get my kids off and running on their own. Then off I go.
The best thing that ever happened to me was when the hi-tech company I worked for went bankrupt. I had everything, big log house on 25 acres with views in W. Colo etc. But I got only 2 weeks/year to do what I wanted. Sold the house, went back into archaeology, don’t make a lot, but am my own boss and have a great life. I get to watch the clouds and drink coffee whenever I want to take a break (and check out Ben’s blog, as I run off solar and cell towers). I own a few pairs of jeans and shirts and some boots and two vehicles and that’s about it, other than some stuff in storage I’ve forgotten about (except to pay the bill). Wouldn’t trade my freedom for anything. Oh, yes, and some good dogs to keep me company. And the stars at night…
Archaelogy? That sounds pretty cool!
I sometimes wonder what would happen if everyone actually woke up and realized the futility of the rat race. Of course, I say that here at work during lunch-hour, participating in the rat race… *sigh*
Archaeology is so cool!
In one of my ‘what if I could do it all over again?’ daydreams, archaeology, geology and being a vet come out as the top 3.
RE: I get to watch the clouds and drink coffee whenever I want to take a break (and check out Ben’s blog, as I run off solar and cell towers). I own a few pairs of jeans and shirts and some boots
LIU- You are probably far richer than 95% of the people on this earth, because you got it all right in your head.
You’re certainly gonna have it a lot easier pshychologically than a bazillion other poor souls before this debacle is over.
Lost in Utah,
sounds like heaven. You and Blue Skye are an inspiration.
Thank you tx. There’s a lot of pressure to jump back in. I’ll wait until after the Dow reaches 11,000.
From my old days, analysts used valuation formula’s that had a divisor of (1+Required Rate of Return)
The Required Rate of Return portion includes the Overnight rate. If inflation rises (while still in a slowdown) and we see the overnight rate go up, that denominator will get bigger and cause the valuation to get smaller.
Right now everytime the fed lowers it, stocks go up. I hate that and can’t get comfortable.
What’s keeping me out stocks right now is the prospect of inflation taking off before stocks really get going again.
Depends on the price you buy at.
“Which is a worse investment, stocks or real estate?”
Both.
PMs, anyone?
I have been away for a week on a far-flung vacation. During that time, my stop-loss was reached and executed on GLD. Kind of a shame, as I liked to say I held a big gold position.
Perhaps another good entry point will come along.
Try
this view. It looks a bit different, wouldn’t you say?
I’ll sell you a June gold 2012 call for USD10000 (Black-Scholes).
I’ll sell you a June gold 2012 call for USD10000 (Black-Scholes).
At what strike price? I assume you mean for one contract, i.e., 100 ounces.
One of the financial channels had a list of all the banks that borrowed from the FED yesterday. There were a bunch of what seemed like foreign banks. Deutsche, Credit Agricole, and several others. What’s up with that?
Look at the ownership of the Federal Reserve.
“Deutsche, Credit Agricole, and several others. What’s up with that?”
I’m certainly NOT an expert on this matter, but I did see a discussion on the banking crisis on the Jim Lehrer News Hours last week and, when the reporter asked Rober Rubin about whether he believed that the worst of the financial crisis was behind us, he responded by saying that one of the biggest questions he had was the level of exposure that Foreign Banks had to the CDOs, MBS, and other kooky L3 financial instruments that brought down Bear and have hurt Citi and other big financials…..Rubin said that the US Banks are trying to get get out in front of this, best they can, and disclose their financial position with respect to these CDOs, but that many of the larger European Banks have been slow to report their exposure….could be that a lot of the big European Banks are in much worse shape that they are willing to let on….
Lost Decade
So, stocks are right where they were nine years ago. I assume executive compensation has been decreased appropriately over the same period to reflect such poor returns on investment? The invisible hand of the free market at work, as it were?
Speaking of the invisible hand, where’d my wallet go?
Or stocks are flat BECAUSE whatever growth there was went to Exec. compensation.
Let’s not forget our friends on Wall Street in the financial services industry, whose share of corporate profits went from around 20% of total corporate profits ten years ago to a whopping 40% of total corporate profits last year. In the early 80’s that number was around 10%. I’m no expert on economics, but when 40% of your profits are going to people whose sole job is to help grease the wheels a bit… well, that’s an awful lot of grease.
Those numbers come from last week’s Economist magazine, by the way. They also had a nice chart where they show financial services profit vs value added over time which looks pretty like you would expect… lots more profit, barely any added value. Did a bang up job of making each other “too big to fail” though.
Or perhaps (on average) it is because stocks just track inflation like other assets?
Nope, historically stocks do way better than inflation.
Bingo!
I don’t think I’ve ever seen our C-level executives get less than a double-digit percentage wage increase per year - and that’s of wages that are already so high that I can’t imagine how they can ever hope to spend that money.
The rest of the people, well, they can eat cake, as it were.
Get a clue, you’re not factoring in all those massive dividends.
/snark off
wow, i have never seen a chart like this. if this goes on for another ten years, the historic performance of the stock market will likely hit 9% or less.
my whole retirement is based on 10% annual returns on average over the next 30 years.
my whole retirement is based on 10% annual returns on average over the next 30 years.
In real terms? No way. In fiat paper, maybe, but you may not be able to buy a postage stamp with your “winnings” at the end.
Well by taking a TSP loan for my downpayment, I effectively took money out of the stock market in 1999. I did a cash out refi in 2003 and paid that loan back, putting money back into the stock market. So decade been berra berra good to me!
Apparently the only people who made money in stocks since 1998 were the ones who get in & out at just the right times and the ones who have seized the controls of the system & have been milking it for all its worth. The dollar-cost-averagers and the long-term stock investors have been SOL.
New leader of Realtors sees turnaround in late ‘08
By M.B. Taboada
AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN
Friday, March 28, 2008
The president-elect of the National Association of Realtors said Thursday that he expects the housing market to bounce back as early as late 2008 or mid-2009.
Charles McMillan, who was in Austin on Thursday to meet with the local chapter of the Women’s Council of Realtors, will take office in 2009 as the nation tries to deal with the worst housing crisis in two decades.
McMillan said he thinks recent federal efforts, including a stimulus package that increases the loan limits at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will help the market recover. But he also said that sellers, including those in Austin, should consider lowering their asking price.
“Things that can be done to bring the market back around is one, for sellers to come to a recognition that there has been a change and be more realistic in their negotiations,” he said.
McMillan said some of the hardest-hit markets such as Boston are already seeing some improvement in price appreciation.
In Texas, he said, markets have been more resilient because the state never saw big “run-ups” in housing prices.
Austin remains one of the state’s hottest markets, he said, and Texas overall had four cities, including Austin, that were among the biggest population gainers in the U.S. from July 2006 to July 2007, according to new census data.
“Austin has its problems in pockets (but) … the Austin market shows very well against many of the markets in other places,” said McMillan, director of realty relations and broker of record for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Dallas-Fort Worth.
McMillan attributed the more recent softening of the housing market to sellers hoping to get last year’s prices and to buyers sitting on the fence. McMillan also said the health of the national market has affected the psyche of local buyers.
As many experts have said, McMillan pointed out that all real estate markets are local and distinct from the national market. He said that in almost 60 percent of the major real estate markets nationwide, home prices continue to appreciate.
“But we still have 40 percent that are down and still suffering,” he said.
“As many experts have said, McMillan pointed out that all real estate markets are local and distinct from the national market. He said that in almost 60 percent of the major real estate markets nationwide, home prices continue to appreciate.”
I didn’t realize 60 percent of the major real estate markets were in Charlotte. When Case-Shiller shows 19 to 20 markets declining, the exception being Charlotte, how does he come up with a number of 60 percent of major markets still appreciating? I have a hunch from
where it was pulled, however.
Pity his boy Yun doesn’t spend his time compiling the Realtor(tm) Commission Index. At least that would teach half of the realtors (before attrition) what the median really is.
On the fair side, Case Shiller is only used houses. Obviously, NAR must make all their profit and optimism from the new houses.
I guess all the home builders are turning around then.
Except for a relative few, Re agents only get a fraction of the 6%. Listening to one friend, the Corp gets a whopping amount, the franchise gets a big dose, and then the re might about 2% if that. So, except for the bad agents, those who are honest/hardworking, don’t get squat. That average of 19k wouldn’t make me want to run all around town to hear some numnut say, but I don’t like the curtains, or the paint is not my favorite.. Who cares, do you like the house or not.
Charlotte’s big - bigger than you think. Big big big big.
It’s really big. Trust me on this.
I’ve never been there - but I hear it’s *really* big.
I’m sure it’s at least 60% of the market.
They can try to stampede people to buy again. But if people simply cannot raise the cash to pay for the houses, all the “Buy now or be priced out forever! Supplies are limited!” talk will move few houses.
–
“He said that in almost 60 percent of the major real estate markets nationwide, home prices continue to appreciate.”
A Big Fat Lie, ladies and gents. We now know why he was picked for the job. He meets the most important qualification.
Jas
CSPAN yesterday had the Chief Economist from one of the F Mae or mac, forgot, but the funny part amongst all the dull dull charts and graphs, mind you charts and graphs are not dull, the guy NotHabt-was fairly dull. Anyway, he got really embarrased when someone pointed out to him that the chart he was reading from/extolling upon was from Jan 07=Jan08, and he said, oh I will have to speak to my analyst about this, someone in audience stated ‘aren’t you the analyst’ to which he replied,’ no,I Am the economist’. From that point on, it was obvious he was blaming the problems on his ‘analyst’ and the borrowers, NOT the lenders, which IMHO, all the other sources need to take equal responsibility, including AG and W …..all of em.
USD index: Economic outlook dim
By Dean Calbreath
STAFF WRITER
March 28, 2008
Sharp drops in consumer confidence and employment opportunities pushed the local economic outlook to its lowest point since late 1995, according to an index of leading economic indicators released yesterday by the University of San Diego.
The index fell by a relatively large 1.1 percent in February, marking the 22nd time the index has fallen in the past 23 months.
USD economist Alan Gin, who compiles the index, said there is no turnaround in sight.
“This is a bad situation,” Gin said. “We’ll have trouble for at least the first half of this year. Housing prices will continue to slump, and retail sales will continue to slow.
“Even if housing prices bottom out in the second half of the year – which is possible – it will take a while before things actually start moving up.”
“Which is possible.”
Reasons? Nah — why bother with reasons…
Strong dollar policy, haha.
OT remark?
Signs of things to come:
I saw a foreclosure that had been languishing in my hometown. The price tag was $180,000. I wouldn’t pay over $100,000 (and I would have to be really drunk to do that) but I don’t think we HBBers are typical “consumers”. Even the foreclosures are overpriced. Last night I was amazed.
Price on 03/26/08: $180,000
Price on 03/27/08: $141,800
That should strike fear through the local market. Although still too high, I’m sure they will find a knife-catching “investor”.
Kuuntrywide has been slashing their REO prices regularly but it’s only put a minor dent in their inventory. I noticed WellsFargone’s REO list has shrunk considerably in the last 6 weeks, at least in the northeast. It shrunk much so that I’d have troubling believe they were sold.
“WellsFargone”
That’s awesome.
Is that your own construction?
Funny.
Was at a b-day celebration at a nice bar downtown Seattle where there were a lot of Wamu folks. Even thought they have rumors, they are just so clueless - it was amazing how much $s were being spent on drinks …
Nah Oxide. I’m not in the wordsmithing biz but you do hear some good ones in the heavy construction on a daily basis.
My guess is that it was probably a large deal to take a chunk of inventory off their hands. There are still some investors, mostly foreign, that are willing to load up on inventory for .40 on the dollar.
What did they do with the inventory? Put it into another named entity? new or otherwise?
Where did it go? Just like the shell game, the pea is still there somewhere.
Bank owned REO’s offer the softess asking price in all real estate.
Case in point. House in Las Vegas sold 16 months ago for $375,000. Bank took it back 3 month ago for $250,000, and this was asking price in MLS. Friend offered $125,000, all cash,..that’s right 50% off the banks asking price and they accepted the offer.
Wow, would you say that $125k price is near bottom price? It’s a long shot but I could lowball 50% for a house in Florida in one of the high foreclosure cities. But then I hate the weather and alot of my friends say Florida sucks. Im dreaming of cool weather daily as I sweat while typing this message.
One market that is apparently doing well is the market for rural real estate with features such as: walled garden, green house, workshop, 53 acres, hay field, nice sized stream. I put a contract on such a place and there were 3 competing offers in the past week! I find out today if I am the lucky winner.
Prepare to sell at a loss on that junk.
You need to spend some time with the dog whisperer.
Is this better?
“Jump on it Dan. History shows that raw acreage is the bestest investment going. ROI is unbeatable and it’s no risk. Buy it at any cost, outbid at any cost. And better yet, property taxes are going down!!! It’s a no brainer!! Global depression is coming!!!”
Rural acreage is CHEAP for a reason. It was idiotic speculation that created this massive misallocation of capital, not sound fundamentals. I can show you today, rural acreage in NY, VT, NH, ME for $500/acre. So why is it when some goofball on the internet discovers this, he thinks he’s hit paydirt? And you and a few other minions cheer it along like its a friggin bargain. Let me ask you guys…. How many of you have baled hay before? How many of you know how to repair a bale twiner? How many of you have jerked cows for a living? Get a grip watcher.
How many of you have baled hay before? How many of you have jerked cows for a living? Get a grip watcher.
There’s a difference between running a for-profit (right,) ag operation and living quietly, privately, off your own land. A small orchard, gardens, family livestock, solar/hydro is not only do-able, but hugely satisfying. Privation doesn’t figure into it unless you really REALLY need a mall nearby.
Coupled with a dependable income source and a good broadband connection, the life is eons away from getting up at 4 am to do battle with a cow’s butt. It’s not for everyone, but then, VRDan doesn’t sound like your average J6P either.
Whether it is for your own use or a commercial makes no nevermind. The fact that some RealTard implies or expresses that there are other bids creates a speculative buzz in the prospective suckers which in this case, Dan is the only one. I was in fact quite shocked to read his post. All the elements are there; Anticipation, fear, unknowns not to mention the boogeyman of “global depression” (which is a backslappingly funny one floated by the moonbats). It just so happens that I can speak from experience regarding tillable and rural acreage. This stuff is everywhere and alot of it. I can lease tillable acres for $25/acre/yr. Why the @$%# would I buy it for $500 plus pay the outrageous taxes on it? As far as the ridiculous idea of hobby farming goes, how much money does one care to lose on that BS? Oh… you’re gonna bail 20 sniveling acres of hay? With what? You’re 12HP John Deere mower from Home depot? You think a small dairy operation is a great idea? Ever heard of hypocalcaemia, metritis and ketosis? Can’t pay the vet? Ever grow quality apples? It takes 10 years of babysitting before you’ll ever see one. Ever do a whole orchard of them? And guess what…. every other half-wit is selling crappy apples too. Get your wallet out for all this idealized stupidity. You’re gonna need it.
Ex,
I find your input very interesting, and obviously borne of experience. Maybe some of these hobby-farmers-to-be want to get their hands dirty, and take on a challenge that’s probably a little too big for them. 95% of the small business owners that fail in the first 5 years really do the same thing, and don’t realize it until a few years after their failure when they look back and see how naive they may have been.
100 years ago people did run small substinence farms with their bare hands. Life’s a journey - what the hell.
Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” are the ones that bite you in the ass WRT new ventures like Gentleman Farming.
Ancient tv show “Green Acres” was a terrific spoof on city folk attempting small farming. On the other hand, that’s precisely what I’m waiting for, just not 53 acres….more like 5, by way of providing some privacy, a place for a small garden/orchard (yes, I’ve done this before), and a place to cut my own wood. Just my style.
If anyone knows how to locate similar “junk” for a similar price please tell me.
RE: One market that is apparently doing well is the market for rural real estate with features such as: walled garden, green house, workshop, 53 acres, hay field, nice sized stream.
Survival stations for the upcoming Depression.
Better ask to see those other offers in writing — me thinks the Realtard is trying to pull a fast one.
Exactly Rob. When worthless acreage gets down to $500 per, everyone thinks it’s a bargain.
I just want to make one more comment - an acre of almost anything can be worth $500, if just for the novelty of owning it. It’s either that or another overpriced golf club or designer purse, or a soon forgotten weekend in Vegas.
I know of people who “own” plots on the moon.
Not really az. Just 8 short years ago I bought 130 tillable acres for $3500. It’s not swamp, it’s not industrial. 130 acres of tillable, buildable land. Now I’m blessed with an $1200 tax payment, year after year, and that is with an AG exemption. I let someone else hay it and they pay the taxes so what did I gain?
Similar to the the economics of buying a one-dollar house in Cleveland.
The purchase price can’t be beat … but, then what?
BINGO!
Good luck, Dan. Sounds Edenesque!
Sounds like a nice place. Good luck.
Good luck. My wife and I are on 40 acres now (place is owned by her grandparents), it’s a little bit of heaven. I plan to buy some land in the next year or so to either build on or with an existing house. I don’t expect to be able to afford more than 10 (maybe 15 if I’m lucky) acres but that will be enough for the green house, garden, fruit trees and berries and maybe some livestock.
“One market that is apparently doing well is the market for rural real estate with features such as: walled garden, green house, workshop, 53 acres, hay field, nice sized stream.”
Where I live (Midcoast Maine) prices for properties like that are falling fast. There are beautiful farms for sale with 50 acres in the $200Ks. I agree this would be a good kind of place to ride out the coming Depression…
The key is proximity to technology jobs and high-speed internet while being far enough away from things. There are a ton of technology related jobs in the Virginia Tech area for me to work during the good times. I just landed a great job after having so many options that it was hard to choose. Then, if things turn south I can implement plan B. Plus, the wife likes farms animals and gardening. She has been very unhappy renting for the past while.
Go for it! Ive tried to take care of a small orchard, here in Ohio; it takes 12 to 16 sprayings of some nasty stuff to get perfect apples. So what if they’re not. You wont make money, but, they taste just fine. Also, rent out the hayfield for a % of the hay….delivered, baled , to your barn. Its a dream a lot of us wish we’d gone for.
The existing owners have an on going relationship with someone who will manage the hay and pay for the taxes. The property comes with the real tractor and gets 5 bar cell phone service and high speed internet. Price per acre it is actually a bargain as well as price per square foot. Also, the land is less “hilly” and “rocky” than most of the other mountainous property around here.
With respect to the multiple offers scam, I am well aware of it and taking actions to prevent it. My realtor has even lowered her take significantly in order to close the deal and make the offer more competitive. With respect to losing money on the property, that is something I am willing to do.
The reality is that it will make a great place to ride out any kind of societal collapse (deflationary or inflationary) and it also gives me an opportunity to live more independently.
I consider it insurance against hard times. Owning (not renting money) a property that allows you to stay out of the way of our out of control government and their “bread lines” and FEMA camps in the realistic potential of total economic collapse is worth much more than dollars sitting in the bank just “hoping” that we only see a housing price correction without significant side effects.
Remember, life isn’t about the money. It is about contentment. Wealth is being able to take care of yourself without depending upon others. The rich “don’t have to work” crowd are in for a rude awaking when their “wealth” which is nothing more than other peoples liabilities defaults. Meanwhile, my wealth will not depend upon someone else honoring an agreement.
my wealth will not depend upon someone else honoring an agreement Just don’t let your name get on any deeds at the Register of Deeds office. Deeds are agreements that must be honored by others if they are to be worth anything. The only thing any of us own is our time & attention.
There are communities of like minded “folks” out rural areas in the west that you might find good company.
Bad week for Uncle Buck:
March 28 (Bloomberg) — The dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline in a month against the euro as traders raised bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to avert a recession.
http://tinyurl.com/2kowtk
Is there a precedent in Fed history for the degree to which they have overtly trashed the dollar’s reputation?
Maybe not in the U.S. But there is the Wiemar Republic in the 30s and Argentina in the 90s.
No because it was backed by gold during the last Depression. Interest rates had to stay high to defend the dollar or all the dollars would have been traded in for gold.
Yes but interest rates were at historic lows during the Depression. The reason why USD weren’t being traded in for gold is because there weren’t many USD held by foreigners (the US was the world’s biggest creditor), and they were getting more valuable (deflation).
huge mistake:
In the past two weeks, the Federal Reserve, long the guardian of the nation’s banks, has redefined its role to also become protector and overseer of Wall Street.
Inside the Fed and out, there is a realization that those moves amounted to crossing the Rubicon, setting the stage for deeper involvement in the little-regulated markets for capital that have come to dominate the financial world.
http://tinyurl.com/3cruk3
“In the past two weeks, the Federal Reserve, long the guardian of the nation’s banks, has redefined its role to also become protector and overseer of Wall Street.”
Really? Or is it just that the longstanding situation has become too obvious for the MSM to ignore it any longer?
CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - The best way for central banks to foster sustainable economic growth and prevent instability is to keep inflation under control, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser said on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSJAT00355820080328
Some of the regional bank presidents are leaning into the wind emitted from the Board.
Funny bear.lol
wage inflation is under control
Wage “inflation” is driving housing price “inflation” at the moment.
updated 2:53 p.m. EDT, Thu March 27, 2008
From $70K to food bank, one family’s struggle
Patricia Guerrero could go a few months without eating, so that should help the family cause.
I’m not so sure. You have some of the sailors down in the hold dumping out the ballast so they can put in more cargo. The captain needs to toss a few to the sharks every once in a while to maintain discipline.
Hopefully the Fed is holding keelhauling in reserve.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribunereview/news/westmoreland/s_559425.html
Pittsburgh area foreclosures rise to highest level in 22 years. February numbers 19% higher than 2007. Market activity is down ~11%.
I did consider relocating to Pittsburgh but all those foreclosures have to drive prices down. Im moving to Oil City/Franklin and will watch and wait to see when/if prices drop enough in other locatons.
heck of a job, brownie:
Bank of America said it has agreed to pay $28 million to Countrywide Financial Chief Operating Officer David Sambol to induce him to run the merged companies’ consumer mortgage operations.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23841122/site/14081545
RE: Bank of America said it has agreed to pay $28 million to Countrywide Financial Chief Operating Officer David Sambol
Despicable…man, I gotta change banks.
Case-Shiller Index is a best case scenerio, things are much worse. After reading the fine print, the index does not cover New Construction, Condo’s, Co-ops, Apartments, Multi Family. Foreclosure sales are not included, but Bank Owned REO’s are included.
“but Bank Owned REO’s are included.”
Included to what extent though? A bank-owned REO has not yet been sold, so the index can’t account for the post-foreclosure sale price in its index right? It can only account for the previous (presumably too high) sale price, to the person that was foreclosed upon.
euros to raise rates?
March 28 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the bank will raise interest rates if needed to contain “alarming” price pressures, even as a global credit squeeze threatens to damp economic growth.
http://tinyurl.com/3xdpou
I find it disturbing that The US Federal Reserve is allowing the dollar to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% and the USD is getting trashed by the Euro which is having monetary expansion at 17%. Europe is toast. When I do not know.
If the dollar had that sort of expansion every economist would be screaming murder.
What? Money supply in the US is at least 15%. Look at MZM:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM
Spain is in trouble…
Spain’s economic growth, which outpaced the euro-region average, provided a quarter of the single-currency area’s new consumer spending during the past four years, according to the European Union’s Luxembourg-based statistics agency, Eurostat. That’s more than five times the contribution of Germany, where the economy is three times the size.
Now, a glut of properties weighs on the market, and interest rate increases and tighter bank lending standards make it more difficult for buyers to finance. The supply of new homes in 2006 outstripped demand by about 50 percent, according to government estimates.
Mortgage interest rates more than doubled since 2005 as rising credit costs sparked by the U.S. subprime crisis compounded eight increases by the European Central Bank. The 12- month euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, calculated monthly by the Bank of Spain and used to set mortgage rates, was 4.79 percent in December, the highest since 2000.
per Bloomberg, this a.m.
Spain is Europe’s Florida - a smoke and mirrors economy based on RE. Not only is Spain going to tank, it’s going to to take down a lot of North European (UK, etc) investors with it and impact property throughout Europe.
It’s funny how Spain virtually mirrors Florida in so many ways:
- Large peninsula on the southern Atlantic side
- Somewhat similar climate, relative to Europe and the rest of the U.S.
- Florida was first explored and settled by the Spanish
- They both seem to attract - shall we say - a “flighty” crew (generalizing of course)
- Now see housing bubble
Lots of great things about both Florida and Spain. Great places to vacation. You have to be of the right mindset to live there though. (I did live in FL for several years)
Where Was Media When Sub-Prime Disaster Unfolded?
http://tinyurl.com/27nkdu
It is somewhat surprising,” Larry Elliott, economics editor of London’s The Guardian observed recently, “that there is not already rioting in the streets, given the gigantic fraud perpetrated by the financial elite at the expense of ordinary Americans.” If such a fraud was taking place, and if Wall Street’s financial crisis, according to the usually staid Economist, was on the edge of “disaster” with a “financial nuclear winter” waiting in the wings, why were American news consumers among the last to know?
There is more to this very sad failure. Many newspapers and TV outlets were complicit. They accepted and made tons of money carrying slick and often deceptive advertising for shady mortgage lenders and credit card companies encouraging readers and viewers to accept more debt. Some major newspaper are tied into local real estate syndicates and get kickbacks from sales tied to their extensive advertising of homes for sale.
Most American news outlets prefer giving J6P the mushroom policy; feed them b.s. and keep them in the dark.
RE: “that there is not already rioting in the streets, given the gigantic fraud perpetrated by the financial elite at the expense of ordinary Americans.
Too much time and effort spent getting their MySpace web page up and counting new friends on their Facebook account.
And then there’s the concern as to whether Brintney Speas has her underpants on for the day and who the finalists are for American Idol.
This is all intellectually taxing for J6P, 58% of whom, hasn’t read a book for pleasure since graduating from HS.
Excuse me for taking on the holier-than-thou Brits!
Where exactly did they report the fraud taking place as the financial elite of London were busy JT-ing the Brit population?
Their bubble is far bigger than the US one.
It’s far too easy to a “dat dem over dere”.
Even the “educated” are clueless. They only see the tip of the iceberg. The are also in denial. You explain the situation to them and they simply refuse to accept it.
Don’t forget we have to worry about gay marriage, flying the flag, and other moral issues. There just isn’t time to worry about economic issues, plus economic issues are hard.
You can’t eat wedge issues.
Gay marriage is a JOBS ISSUE for me
Why are repubs against creating JOBS in America? Think of all the DJ caterers, halls limo drivers, photos, video, flowers, etc that will make tons of money and have jobs…if we legalize gay marriage
“Where Was Media When Sub-Prime Disaster Unfolded?”
Do blogs qualify as media?
“Do blogs qualify as media?”
Blogs are the new, improved MainStream Media.
Posts are subject to peer review and editing, allowing the Truth to be outed.
Pray tell, how do I edit? Bottom line though, yeah, blogs allow a diverse input of rough ideas to attenuate toward sensibility.
“attenuate” means “to become weak” (to weaken).
“Pray tell, how do I edit?”
Wrong word on my part. A better word is “revision”, or “correction”, or “modification”.
it also means “diminish” “lessen the density of; rarify”
http://www.dictionary.com
That’s what the MSM is afraid of.
Case in point: Note the fact-checking that goes on here. Yesterday, someone did a public records search on one of those sob-story homeowners we’re reading so much about. Turns out that the sobber was a serial refinancer.
Half the political population has already written off the MSM for good, and the MSM is in a panic with their influence slipping away.
They can only blame themselves though - think of the 2004 incident of a TV network and forged documents being passed off as genuine, to try to influence the presidential election! Criminal.
I’m sure they’ll try something like that again this year, but with a real audience of maybe a couple hundred thousand people a night now, nobody will care. Good riddance.
….as long as we promote and support net neutrality. The FCC is massively biased toward corporate media, and would love to give them the opportunity to meddle with the pace, space, content of the web
fear the mob:
Rice prices jumped 30 per cent to an all-time high on Thursday, raising fears of fresh outbreaks of social unrest across Asia where the grain is a staple food for more than 2.5bn people.
http://tinyurl.com/36xtxp
Have you noticed the sudden drop in milk prices?
Hungry people don’t stay hungry for long.
A hungry mob is an angry mob.
Oh, what a tribula-a-a-tion…!
Hmmm… I guess the only solution is for the Asian bankers to stop looking at food prices when considering inflation. That’ll fix the problem - look how well it works here with our ever-wonderful “core inflation” index!
Japanese price index does not include most foods.
March 28 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-chartered mortgage companies, may raise as much as $20 billion in capital as part of an agreement that allows them to buy more debt securities, their regulator said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9Hkrda_0pTQ&refer=home
Buyers’ Revenge: Trash the House After Foreclosure
By Michael M. Phillips
Word Count: 1,488
Fuller version of article available here.
This is interesting
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=b65bd77e-511f-4e00-88a7-a53a2a5ea4ca&k=68939
I read about WM’s actions while the Katrina disaster was still unfolding, very little publicity was given to that while the MSM’s attention went elsewhere.
and here’s some debunking of things said yesterday which were wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/opinion/28brooks.html?_r=2&oref=login&oref=slogin
“and here’s some debunking of things said yesterday which were wrong”
It depends on what Med’s McCain forgot to take that day, as to which way he might lean on any subject. Time for a nap, John.
Napping is better than lying.
What struck me as the best commentary on the Bosnia story came from a poster called GI Joe who wrote in to a news blog: “Actually Mrs. Clinton was too modest. I was there and saw it all. When Mrs. Clinton got off the plane the tarmac came under mortar and machine gun fire. I was blown off my tank and exposed to enemy fire. Mrs. Clinton without regard to her own safety dragged me to safety, jumped on the tank and opened fire, killing 50 of the enemy.” Soon a suicide bomber appeared, but Mrs. Clinton stopped the guards from opening fire. “She talked to the man in his own language and got him [to] surrender. She found that he had suffered terribly as a result of policies of George Bush. She defused the bomb vest herself.” Then she turned to his wounds. “She stopped my bleeding and saved my life. Chelsea donated the blood.”
Made me laugh. It was like the voice of the people answering back. This guy knows that what Mrs. Clinton said is sort of crazy. He seems to know her reputation for untruths. He seemed to be saying, “I get it.”
There is a reason that most in the military do not like HC. The military humbly serve their country.
I would not call a piece of McCain campaign literature, debunking.
Some other quotes from Brooks;
“The president has remained resolute. Momentum to liberate Iraq continues to build. The situation has clarified, and history will allow clear judgments about which leaders and which institutions were up to the challenge posed by Saddam and which were not”
“What matters, and what ultimately sprang the U.N. trap, is American resolve. The administration simply wouldn’t let up. It didn’t matter how Hans Blix muddied the waters with his reports on this or that weapons system. Under the U.N. resolutions, it was up to Saddam to disarm, administration officials repeated ad nauseam, and he wasn’t doing it. It was and is sheer relentlessness that has driven us to where we are today.
“Which is ironic. We are in this situation because the first Bush administration was not relentless in its pursuit of Saddam Hussein. That is a mistake this Bush administration will not repeat.”
Yeah, he’s a real judge of charater.
And here is Dean Bakers true debunking or Brooks’ economic acumen.
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=07&year=2007&base_name=david_brooks_sets_record_for_m
thank you Ed. McCain makes me fear for my 14-year old boy. When do we bring back the draft? Wth, we’ve got family in Canada.
Well there you have it. Charlie Rangel sure played the ‘draft is coming back’ angle during the last election. Lets scare every mom and dad of teenage boys into voting Democratic. Anti-war Obama is the man! nevermind that we’re on a housing bubble blog and the O man seems to want to bring back the bubble. Mortgage bailout, we’re all entitled to own a home, increase the mortgage interest deductions, 70% ownership blah, blah, blah. There’s nothing wrong with putting your families safety first, but please just predicate every political opinion with the obvious bias. I understand the fear, but you’re on the wrong forum. I own two homes, undermortgaged, and would love to see a flat tax, without mortgage int. deductions. It would bring some sanity back to the economic mess we’re in in.
I wish Chuck Hagel would run…was listening to him speaking yesterday, and he has a real understanding of the solvency mess/affordability issue re housing. He’s a repub. and friend of McCain withholding his endorsement because he disagrees with McCain’s policy re Iraq. Like another smart senator, Jim Webb of Virginia, both are Viet vets. I’d vote for either.
From the Shea Homes knifecatcher assistance program flyer that accompanied my SD Union-Tribune today:
Ask About Our Great FHA Loans*
- 100% Financing and Low Down Payment Options
- Down Payment Assistance Available
- No Closing Costs or Reduced Closing Costs
- Peace of Mind
The advertised homes are offered from the mid-$300,000s for condos up to $1.2m+ for SFRs. Sounds like a wide range of prices to fund with FHA low income housing loans.
The fine print indicates the downpayment assistance comes from the Nehemiah Grant program.
Hmmmm…..Shea might want to update their flyers a little:
http://www.sunnations.com/mortgagelibrary/down_payment_assistance/nehemiah.asp
This link shows it’s still in operation…..
http://www.fha.com/program_nehemiah.cfm
But is also clear that assistance doesn’t come FROM Nehemiah, but THROUGH Nehemiah from the seller. IIRC Nehemiah and others were just conduits set up to get around a rule that sellers couldn’t give money directly to buyers.
Why is Coronado, CA super expensive still?
People keep talking about San Diego prices crashing but it’s only gone down from $320/foot to $280/foot, a small drop. Most other cities in America haven’t gone down much. It’s been 2-3 years since the peak and prices are still very, very inflated for over 90% of the cities in America. It’s very frustrating.
Cuz everybody wants to live there, silly!
I don’t, not at those ripoff prices! I am moving to a place where almost noone wants to live there, thats where the good prices are!
well go for it and do not become the 2nd unabomber please
lmao.
When exactly are you moving, you have been saying that for a long time now?
I’d be willing to drive him, if he’d just move already.
I’ve been secretly buying up all the property in rural Pennsylvania, so that when ByeFL finally gets up there, he’ll have no choice but to buy from me, at highly inflated prices!
Sorry Bye - you’ve been telegraphing for too long!
I concur. At $50K for a SFH in Oil City you would think after a year to save 10 or 20% for a downpayment its happened by now and we would be saved having to hear all about it ad infinitum. Telling the blog the same plans a couple hundred times gets pretty boring.
Then take a look at Hot Springs, SD. Terrific area and Deadwood’s a lot of fun.
Or any place in Nebraska, Wyoming high plains, eastern Colorado or Western Kansas.
And holy smokes, the school’s are all good.
Just be careful about the local meth dealers.
Coronado ca is a nice place right on the water so it should have a premium imo-maybe not as high as it is
and you can dine at the Del with Muffy and Buffy too
You might want to pass on the restaurants at the Hotel Del, at least if food safety’s a consideration:
http://tinyurl.com/32tu6p
“The Hotel del Coronado had the worst record among establishments that house a high-end Zagat restaurant. The hotel has two restaurants, banquet facilities, bars and other eateries. Many struggled in health inspections.”
“In August, its Sheerwater restaurant received a C grade after a five-hour inspection that noted brown cockroaches scampering in the cook’s station, clams and mussels stored 21 degrees above the proper temperature, and flies crawling on shredded cheese and cooked sausage. There were five pages of problematic observations. County officials took the unusual step of shutting down the restaurant for three days.”
“The hotel’s main kitchen, which prepares food for banquets, and the Babcock & Story Bakery both received B grades last year after inspectors found food stored at potentially hazardous temperatures and observed produce prepared without being washed.”
We stayed there as a treat to ourselves about 25 years ago. The beach was nice, but it was a warm evening and there was no AC in the room! “Vintage” room. Never went back.
Most houses in San Diego that are within 5-10 miles of the coast do not have A/C. They claim we don’t need it.
Hogwash! It gets mighty humid near the beach, and on some of those hot days (90-100), it gets brutal.
Its an island isn’t it ? I was in SD a couple of weeks ago and saw a flip on Coronado what a joke. Every time I visit SD I see one instance of rage because of crowds and cars.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.com/toscano/
You’ll have to scroll down through that listing, but you’ll find that San Diego Resale Price per Square Foot has declined 25 to 30 percent since the peak with an acceleration in the rate of decline from January to February of this year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if prices in Coronado have been slower to decline. Though not an island (it’s near the northern end of a long, skinny peninsula), it’s fairly unique by San Diego standards in having little or no space to build anything new unless you tear something down. The big RE issue the past few years has been people trying to super size their existing homes on too small postage-size lots. Neighbors don’t like living next to these bloated, expanded homes on steroids.
Why is Coronado, CA super expensive still?
Probably the same reason San Francisco is expensive still… being at the high end of the market, there hasn’t been a critical mass of foreclosures that would show where the market truly is. Furthermore, there are plenty of rich people out there still that don’t mind losing their money. Most probably won’t be rich for much longer if that’s how they operate.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Citigroup Inc. (C) and Wachovia Corp. (WB) will likely have to announce dividend cuts next month, as shrinking earnings will make it hard to support current payouts, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney said Friday in a note to clients.
Whitney, who has lowered her estimates for financial company earnings more than 30 times since November and who accurately forecast Citigroup’s dividend cut last year, expects Citigroup to earn $1.43 a share less than its dividend payout this year and for Wachovia to have to pay out “just about all of its estimated earnings this year.”
Suprime Politics
David Cee, care to comment?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120666677096370545.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox
ZIRP
March 28 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve is probably considering its policy options should a shock to the economy force it to cut interest rates to zero, according to ABN Amro Holding NV.
http://tinyurl.com/3c52fq
Tonight Cnn has special on mortgage meltdown 8 pm..
I have no doubt it will be full of shi, er, stories regarding “victims” of “predatory lending.”
“In our first story tonight, meet Jaunita Rosita Santa Maria Juarez, an unemployed janitorial assistant who purchased a home with her mother, brother and sister-in-law, and six cousins in Inland Empire in 2005 for $650,000. We brought a translator along to assist us with the interview, as neither Ms. Juarez nor any of her relatives speak English.”
Lou Dobbs will have a field day with that story.
I’m looking forward to someone doing a national story assessing the national impact of Hispanic-on-Hispanic mortgage crime in this doggie. It may only be a slice, but it’s a big slice.
Anecdotes abound, such as the interior bank pre-foreclosure inspection we did on Tuesday where the family got sold out by a cousin who ‘helped’ them buy a house.
They no longer talk to cuz, or the Hispanic real estate agents who also helped them, or the friendly Hispanic abogado. I’ve stopped holding my breath waiting for the local DA to move in on a couple of the notorious groups working the amigo angle, though I did hear back in Sept/Oct ‘07 that indictments were coming.
In my little neck of the woods I can demonstrate at least 2,000-3,000 such deals were made, where there are about 3-4 crimes per file [Appraisal fraud, Mortgage fraud, Realtor misrepresentation, Attorney collusion].
I’m basing this estimate on the NY Federal Reserve Bank numbers on subprime mortgages that came out a few months back, as well as transaction volumes in affected towns from 2002-2007.
korea bails:
LONDON (MarketWatch) — South Korea’s National Pension Service plans to no longer purchase U.S. Treasurys, citing falling yields and an urge to pursue a broader range of foreign investments, news reports said.
http://tinyurl.com/27rx4n
germans fear meltdown:
Germany and other industrialized nations are desperately trying to brace themselves against the threat of a collapse of the global financial system. The crisis has now taken its toll on the German economy, where the weak dollar is putting jobs in jeopardy and the credit crunch is paralyzing many businesses.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,543588,00.html
Looks like the global house bubble is gonna cause a global great depression II
Facts nonwithstanding, the Germans always, always, worry about everything. Way of life there.
Being one, I should know.
There’s German ancestry on my mother’s side of the house. And I can attest to the fact that worrying is something that Germans do quite well.
Look at the bright side. If Bush can’t sell debt, he will have to end the Iraq war. I just hope that the service men and women do end up stranded there.
Let’s assume you meant “do NOT end up…”
And let’s also ask what you think of the service men and women that have been “stranded” in Germany, Korea, and Bosnia since the “ends” of those respective wars?
oh. he is too *bright* to even consider that. he will throw world’s economy to the dump rather than do that.
Nouriel Roubini is on C-span one right now.
Nouriel Roubini was on C-span 1, this morning for one half an hour.
My comment: He suggests that the world is facing an global economic pandemic. It will be a hard landing for the US. The Asset bubble (read housing) had to deflate.
My solution to the problem: we can either burn down the current neo-liberal world economic structure(read globalism) or immediately institute currency controls and eliminate/reduce goods manufactured overseas by US companies and re-imported into the US.
We have “got the edge, Co-chief” that we are rapidly losing. We are still the biggest consumer market in the world.
That and our military edge is the only thing we have going for us. These actions are necessary in order to rebuild our manufacturing base. It appears that the only businesses benefit from current globalism policies are our agriculture and financial sectors.
So what do you think?
RE: Looks like the global house bubble is gonna cause a global great depression II
Totally, in your camp, LC.
The main problem is going to be getting thru the inevitable hard times to reach your status quo.
Legions of state employeed female special ed aides “will not go quietly.”
Signed,
Soccer Moms for Higher Taxes
How do you propose eliminating goods manufacturing overseas? Do you think our trading partners will sit idly by while we close access to the US market? Take a look at how well Smoot-Hawley worked, closing our borders to trade is going to make this situation worse not better.
Tax policy. Reverse tax benefits to employers who ship jobs overseas for one thing.
Second, reduce/eliminate lobbying at the fed level. All contributions to candidates must be sent to the district (congressional, state or federal level).
Shut down the free flow of capital. Give companies a reason to build things/products in the US. (tax policies).
Finally, abrogate GTO, NAFTA and any other multi-national trade agreements. If not, everyone’s wages/salaries will drop to third world levels. I would love to see each of us would compete with a foreign state’s relatively free health insurance/education with minimal costs with regard to infrastructure, toxic polution, and long-term pension and health costs. imho
Your proposition is to basically cut this country off from the rest of the world. If that worked North Korea and Cuba would be great places to live.
The company I work for (I’m not in finance or agriculture) does billions of dollars worth of business in overseas markets. What you propose would put me and thousands others like me out of work.
ye, but who buys the goods that everyone wants to sell to?
It appears that we are(maybe we should say were, but don’t tell anyone) the greatest consumers of the world. We are not North Korea, though we may be in the not to distant future!
Is it really all that important to get the cheapest possible price if no one has the money to purchase!
With globalization, that will be where americans will find themselves if this process is not reversed. imho
Tax policies. As I understand it (rookie, unqualified), I have heard that we give tax breaks to company s to send our jobs overseas to re import products back into the US. Just reverse the tax policies to make it benefitial to produce goods here. This would also require the aborgration of NAFT, CAFTA, GTO.
I would prefer a cold war (economic) over a real war.
jmho
Lost control …You are singing my song with your 2 posts .I agree with you 100% .
There might not be any need to close trade. If the dollar depreciates enough we won’t be able to afford any imports. We might be forced back into self sufficiency.
IMO this is why we will see the formation of the North American Union. The US will surrender some of its sovereignty in order to have access to Canadian resources and cheap Mexican labor (that stays in Mexico).
Colorado,
If the business and political elites attempt to create a NAU, there will be a social and political revolution in this country that I suspect will make the French Revolution of 1789 pale in comparison.
You can already see some of the effects in the anti immigration movement in the US.
Finally, I suspect the election of 2008 will show that I major re alignment has taken place. I am afraid the two new parties philosophies will be the haves and the have nots. I do not necessarily want this, however the ground has and will continue to shift under our feet.
jmho
The US will surrender some of its sovereignty in order to have access to Canadian resources and cheap Mexican labor (that stays in Mexico).
I’ve got news for you fella: the US has access to Canadian resources and cheap Mexican labor right now.
NAU is tinfoil hat stuff. The PTB in the US already get everything they want from NAFTA.
I’d like to continue a theme from yesterday about government bail-outs (sorry Ben). It has been suggested that government action is irrelevant because the size of the problem is so huge. I agree that the $30bn or $50bn suggested so far is a drop in the bucket, even $500bn would make little difference. But why would our “leaders” stop there?
Someone mentioned the Weimar Republic, obviously I realize that printing another $5Tr or $10Tr of debt would be a disaster for the currency and for inflation but if that was enough to stop excessive Government borrowing we wouldn’t now have $9tr in national debt. Zimbabwe just launched a Zim$10,000,000 note, its worth about US$1.00 at the moment, but not for long. Zimbabwe’s ruler, its central bankers knew the dangers but continued anyway. I’d like to believe that couldn’t happen here, but I’m not sure that it couldn’t.
(But why would our “leaders” stop there?)
Because that is the amount required to bail out all the insiders, and a few symbolic other folks they can put on the news?
Why would the Fed want to deliberately destroy its hegemony over the U.S. economy?
Because of a failure to understand where the hegemony comes from.
An academic who writes that “inflation” can ALWAYS be created independent of “capital flight” or “flight to hard assets” is a bit of a fool even by harsh academic standards.
“failure to understand”
It is too early to say what is understood and what is not, IMO. Let’s save this discussion for a few years up the road, and then maybe you will have the right to say, ‘I told you so.’
Anyone that believes this will happen should take on as much debt as possible, you would be able to pay it back in a couple of years with just one USD$10,000,000 note.
I think all of this talk about bailing out and/or helping is just that - loads of talk. I agree that anything the government tries to do will be irrelevant.
People who really believe the U.S. economy will collapse and the dollar is going to zero should go put all their money in real estate, with the smallest down payment possible. If they can’t afford a whole house then invest in a fund doing that. How many are doing that, can I see a show of hands? Nobody? Didn’t think so.
I’m certain at least in my own mind the coming recession will be a deflationary one, because of the concept of power. I do not believe it Fed is operating in the interest of the masses, but for a core insider financial elite that has much control over the financial industry, and given the amount of money they have, has considerable influence over politicians as well.
We see so far the the Fed is breaking the law and overstepping its authority to bail out BS bond holders. Conversely, we see no concern they have for BS stock holders, and six-pack Joe mortgage holders do not appear to be getting bailouts of significance either. The Fed has its friends, and if you are not its friend it could probably care less about you. Sure, it is a nice fantasy to believe the Federal Reserve is looking out for your personal interest, but I believe the vast majority who think that will be disappointed.
So with this consideration, the key is to guess who or what it is that the Fed will be treating preferentially, and invest accordingly.
the key is to guess who or what it is that the Fed will be treating preferentially, and invest accordingly.”
Banks, politicians and elites are their constituency, and those people don’t want deflation.
As for sinking all money in real estate, I like other inflation hedges more. The government can alter property taxes, etc. to make a real estate investment a very bad bet. Plus, the house will be even less liquid in a currency crash than it is now. If you want to see what the scenario you describe looks like, look at Argentina. Currently they have no mortgage market at all.
People who really believe the U.S. economy will collapse and the dollar is going to zero should go put all their money in real estate [sic], with the smallest down payment possible. If they can’t afford a whole house then invest in a fund doing that. How many are doing that, can I see a show of hands? Nobody? Didn’t think so.
____________________________________________________
Wrong asset class for the dollar-to-zero scenario.
My hand is up.
For real estate, Prof. Hy Minsky is having his moment.
For the dollar, Prof. Triffin still has his dilemma.
Anyone who invests where their mouth is… I’ll have a beer with you any day. I must say, I’m long overdue to read up on the Argentinian scenario.
However, I do not understand why our leaders want to devalue the dollar to zero, and though real estate might not be ideal in the hyperinflation scenario, you at least have title to a house. Perhaps you could list a couple ideal ones for me.
Loans and Leadership (What the Candidates Say About a Subprime Bailout)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTQ4Y2YyNjcyMzk5MTYwYjBkMDUzN2QzYzNiZjFjMDY=
“In McCain’s formulation, irresponsible lending and borrowing created the problem, and uncertainty is at the root of its spread throughout the financial community. If accurate, this diagnosis demonstrates the folly of the Democrats’ proposed cures, which would reward irresponsibility and increase uncertainty among investors. ”
Obviously we think McCain is getting this part right, right? Problem I’m having is with McCain on other matters and I seriously don’t think I’ll be able to vote for him either.
One of his education advisors just took over a school where my youngest attends. The school, New Way Learning Academy, has been teaching kids with dyslexia for 40 years.
The Board appointed an Exec Director last August, fired the principal that’s been there 20 years, and now all of the teachers and 75% of the parents are leaving. Unfortunately this is the only school in the entire state of AZ that is designed to teach dyslexics, so we have to hussle and set up a new school.
Anyway, the Chairman of the Board that’s responsible for all of this is an advisor to McCain and let me tell you, she’s the Republican version of Hillary Clinton.
Do we have any education professionals visiting this blog? Check out the future of education, Education 2020, a web based training system with teachers in another state. If McCain gets in, this is the system that’s going to be spreading all over the US.
Ever consider homeschooling?
This article ends with this:
“McCain’s approach, on the other hand, is to avoid policies that reward irresponsible behavior; to increase transparency in the financial markets; and to allow the Federal Reserve to act only when a systemic crisis appears likely. The Democrats’ knock on McCain is that he doesn’t know the economy, but his speech offered a better understanding of how markets work than anything the Democratic candidates have offered so far. ”
In fact, as Krugman points out, McCain does no such thing. He encourages the bailout of large institutions and calls for less regulation. Less regulation means less transparency. Unless, like convening a panel of top lenders to work it out, he thinks the big banks will simply be more transparent on their own.
You are going to quote Krugman on McCain? That would be the same as quoting Limbaugh on Obama.
Ummm? The OP is about the Krugman piece on McCain.
And I also quote the opinion piece linked by txchick. from the conservative journal Nat Review. Why is that any more of a worthwhile source than Krugman for you?
I was having trouble looking past the repeated assumption that “a strong progressive sensibility” is the appropriate yardstick to measure the candidates by.
Obama’s heart is in the right place, but he’s too cautious.
Clinton has appropriate levels of progressive sensitivity, but fatally flawed for choosing Greenspan’s name to drop rather than Krugman’s.
McCain “panders shamelessly to right-wing ideologues”.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
BARACK OBAMA
Obama, Insisting a Bailout Plan Isn’t a Bailout Plan
Obama, today:
To stabilize the housing market and help bring the foreclosure crisis to an end, I have sponsored Senator Chris Dodd’s legislation creating a new FHA Housing Security Program, which will provide meaningful incentives for lenders to buy or refinance existing mortgages. This will allow Americans facing foreclosure to keep their homes at rates they can afford.
Senator McCain argues that government should do nothing to protect borrowers and lenders who’ve made bad decisions, or taken on excessive risk. On this point, I agree. But the Dodd-Frank package is not a bailout for lenders or investors who gambled recklessly, as they will take losses. It is not a windfall for borrowers, as they will have to share any capital gain. Instead, it offers a responsible and fair way to help bring an end to the foreclosure crisis. It asks both sides to sacrifice, while preventing a long-term collapse that could have enormous ramifications for the most responsible lenders and borrowers, as well as the American people as a whole. That is what Senator McCain ignores.
I’m not sure how Obama can say this isn’t a bailout, or at least a partial bailout, as taxpayers are on the hook for repaying those refinanced mortgages if the homeowner doesn’t.
Representative Barney Frank (D-MA) and Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), the Chairs of the House and Senate committees, respectively, with jurisdiction over housing, have proposed a plan using the FHA under which lenders that chose to take part would agree to reduce the loan amount and refinance the mortgage at a lower interest rate in return for a cash fee. Refinanced loans would be guaranteed by the FHA, and the lender would have no further credit exposure if the borrower subsequently defaulted. This means that if a refinanced loan later defaulted, the taxpayers would cover any losses.
By the way, considering how Obama is touting this as the solution, it’s ironic that in two weeks, to the best of my digging, the bill has not yet been introduced, nor is it listed on Thomas. Dodd and Frank announced “their intent to introduce” the legislation back on March 13.
The reason Obama is going to insist this bailout plan isn’t really a bailout - even though taxpayers would end up covering the costs of every refinanced loan that defaulted- is because the actual details of the plan would be phenomenally unpopular. Rasmussen recently reported, “Fifty-three percent (53%) of Americans say that the federal government should not help out homeowners who borrowed more than they could afford. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 29% disagreed and believed that federal action is appropriate. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.”
UPDATE: My main reason for thinking this proposal is a terrible idea is that it’s a bailout, but apparently financial analysts also think it just won’t work:
Proposed legislation aimed at refinancing troubled mortgages may shut out two thirds of the loans it aims to fix due to restrictions on borrower eligibility, according to UBS Securities…
But terms that borrowers must meet, such as caps on loan size and debt-to-income levels, limit the scope of the plan, the analysts, led by Laurie Goodman, wrote in a research note dated Tuesday…
While a bailout is necessary to buoy the housing market, “we feel many authors of these proposals fail to appreciate the difficulty in meeting” key criteria, such as excluding ‘bad’ homeowners that exaggerated income, had faulty appraisals or lied about the use of the property,” they wrote.
“If all the ‘bad’ borrowers are eliminated, the program will not help enough homeowners to significantly impact home prices,” they added.
The number of loans eligible for Frank’s program is probably even lower than estimated because other factors, such as the requirement that borrowers be current in payments for the past six months, were not yet factored into calculations, the UBS analysts said.
One of the few things I like about the Dodd-Frank legislation rough sketch of what the final bill might look like is its limit that “only owner-occupants will be eligible for the new FHA-insured mortgage. No investors or investor properties will qualify.” The problem is, investor properties, second homes, etc., are probably a healthy chunk of the troubled mortgages right now.
If you have paid your mortgage for the past six months, you probably don’t need the federal government coming in, helping you refinance, and then guaranteeing your mortgage
If the Dems continue to make foreclosures a campaign issue, they’re just stupid. I haven’t seen any polls, but I’d imagine that the vast majority of Americans do not want the gov’t to bail out people facing foreclosure. Plus, the percentage of Americans facing foreclosure is still miniscule compared to how many Americans will not face foreclosure! So how many votes can the Dems get by supporting a bailout?? If the Dems keep pushing this BS, McCain could crush either one of them just by highlighting PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY.
Can anyone explain to me why the Dems are making foreclosures a campaign issue when the vast majority of Americans don’t want the gov’t to help FB’s??? I don’t get it.
Obama’s cluelessness about matters economic makes him vulnerable to the economic manipulati.
And McCain has shown himself to be an economic scholar?
“If Geenspan’s alive or dead it doesn’t matter. If he’s dead, just prop him up and put some dark glasses on him like, like ‘Weekend at Bernie’s,’”
John McCain Oct, 2007
He actually said that? Wow… and I thought the Shrub had the market cornered for dumb quotes and ideas.
I miss Dan Quayle. He wasn’t bright, but at least when he opened his mouth to change feet, we all had a good laugh!
What about McCains admitted cluelessness about economic matters. Obama isn’t dumb, graduated top 10% Harvard Law. I’m guessing he has a pretty good handle on the economic issues. I sure like that sort of bailout as opposed to the FEDS accept all forms of garbage and hand out cash for free plan, or guaranteeing profits for the purchaser of Bear Sterns.
Guess again.
There was another article in the Canadian press today from Garth Turner about the prospects for a bubble collapse in Canada, which had one particularly interesting point, to wit:
“Canadians, strangely, believe this country is immune from the housing contagion sweeping America….So, how different is the Canadian experience? Not enough. In the period between 2000 and the market crash in 2006, U.S. home prices increased 74 per cent, while household income rose by just 15 per cent. In Canada, real estate prices jumped 70 per cent by the end of 2007, with family incomes ahead 14 per cent.”
The article can be found in my local newspaper’s site at
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/editorial/story.html?id=e3d5d913-827b-4b83-9a40-5c3e2a874ec5
Best wishes to all,
NR
It’s different there. They aren’t making any more land you know.
I’d be happy if they’d stop making snow for a while.
NR
Move to Vancouver then(but rent there, prices are a ripoff!)
I’m doing my part to melt the Canadian snow by asking my Canadian friends for advice on repairing my lawn mower. For some reason that seems to burn them up this week
Wall streets’ pump handle broke off, Lehman didn’t get too far.
FWIW, I think there may be a reason Citi came out and upgraded Lehman today. They could very well be the counterparty to Lehmans insolvency the way JPMorgan was to Bear. They don’t want to have to assume the liabilities of that pig with their own problems ongoing.
Another Sunday night Surprise?
Lessons From Japan’s Malaise
“…Japan’s stock market collapse began in January 1990 and continued throughout that year. The property market followed, with a lag. Yet the Bank of Japan did not try to prevent this financial crash from damaging the real economy by cutting interest rates, as the U.S. Federal Reserve has done spectacularly during the past three months. To the contrary, Japan’s central bank used its monetary policy as if to make sure that the country’s asset-price bubble had truly burst: It carried on raising interest rates until September 1990 and did not make its first cut until July 1991, 17 months after the financial crisis began.
In fact, the Bank of Japan did not begin using monetary policy as an aggressive tool to arrest the slump until deflation had set in toward the end of the 1990s. Japan did do two things: It used a massive increase in public spending, particularly on construction projects, to try to rescue indebted firms and to inject public money into the economy; and it helped banks conceal the true extent of their losses and their bad-debt burdens, in order to prevent markets from clearing at painfully low prices.
The best that can be said about the Japanese experience is that its vast fiscal stimulus may have averted a deep recession at the price of a long stagnation….”
Bill Emmott, editor in chief of The Economist from 1993 to 2006, is the author of the forthcoming book “Rivals,” on China, India and Japan.
Washington Post
http://tinyurl.com/3cp797
So, I guess, the cat is out of the bag. The public will finally start finding out how bad our economic circumstances are, after hiding from it since housing market peak.
“Princeton economist Paul Krugman spoke with Fortune’s Jia Lynn Yang about the impact on the economy, the outlook for home prices, and the reasons for both fear and hope. Krugman, a former Fortune columnist who now writes a column for the New York Times, will also appear in a one-hour CNN & Fortune special report on the economy that premieres March 28 at 8 p.m. ET.”
More ars.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=abRsV3HPMYxE&refer=munibonds
I’ll do a quick anecdote:
Voz runs a small heavy diesel repair outfit. I had not one, but two employees approach me this week to share concerns that inflation was causing difficulties making ends meet at home.
I was forced to repsond with, well the 1040 was filed right? And you are gettin the stimulus too. I am not seeing top line growth in sales, and Im getting squeezed by my outside services. So, lets wait till the end of summer to make a decision on whether we see things turn up or get worse.
This is a tea leave exercise: will inflation continue to ramp, or are the commodities gonna moderate as the slowdown continues. My inclination is if the emerging continues the big run, commodities will not pull back, and inflation will continue to ramp in the US.
Main Street gets ready to make even tougher choices. Ive already had to layoff 30% of personell, slashed overtime, and raised the shop rate by 7%. Barely running break even. Owners were forced to sell a couple of pet projects to maintain cash flow, short term line of credit is running at 40% of capacity. Im considering another 7% shop rate increase next month.
Cost of diesel must be a killer. I don’t see how that can drop.
boom truckers out of pa are asking for a 45% fuel surcharge on every load and idesel is like $4.50 a gallon
csx and union pacific used to run out of iowa railcars into jersey city new jersey less than 2 years ago for $3500-3800 total
the last bills i got were for a total of $5501 only to go higher as the fule surcharges keep climbing
it is pretty much break even to truck directly into nyc then to rail and truck from jersey
how much worse can this get ? probably alot worse imo
I don’t see how the rails will benefit if they are charging the same as truck. Plus you get the added rail delay on top.
I think that’s why Warren Buffet was (is?) so interested in railroads. Off hand, truck hauling does not seem terribly efficient (not an expert by a long shot) unless the roads are subsidized and fuel is cheap.
Some are starting to kick around weight and trailer (double 53’s) increases for trucks. Doubles and triples are on tollways already, may see a move to all interstates.
Report on am radio said drivers were shelling out $70 to $110k in fuel costs alone.
Was in line behind some guy at the gas station here in SE Utah who wrote a check for $450. I looked out to see a pickup with two barrels (like you’d burn trash in if you lived in redneck country) strapped into the back. The cashier said the guy was a farmer and spent that much every week on gas. Well, actually, he corrected himself, last week it was $350, but prices have gone up. The farmer looked pretty grim.
I don’t see how this can be a problem. Core inflation does not consider the price of energy, therefore, according to the Fed, energy prices are not increasing.
Sad, yet that’s the way the game works!
CD player and CB radio prices are likely down, compensating.
Top Line Sales DOWN 16%
A/R UP 12% (poor performance in aged receivable)
—–
Professional Services UP 15%
Officers Life Insurance UP 300%
Workers Comp UP 3% (this is with cutting back 6 mechanics)
Shop Security UP 10%
Interest Expense UP 21% (this is the one that gettin in my craw)
Utilities UP 20%
Permits/Licensing UP 12%
—————-
Employee pay UP 3%
Management pay UP 10%
Benefits package DOWN 20% (this held medical benefit costs even)
———-
Folks this is not an expansionary environment, this is continued contraction, cost cutting, benefit reductions: Credit contraction continues.
I have medical benefit package re-evaluation next month.
I have to hold steady on benefits, any continued erosion will cause people to walk for a better job at a new company that has substantially lower cost structures. However, if I pass this increased cost to the employees as a “net benefit” increase, I can sell it. Unfortunatley, the homemakers will see through stoppage of declining benfits as not an increase. Kinda like slower growth in government programs is a “net reduction”.
The small business I’m an employee/owner of is paying $2000/employee/month (no young men) with a $2000 deductable after 3 years of holding down 20-30% increases. Like supermarket food package sizes, that kind of elasticity only goes so far.
My boss is more scared of the homemakers than he is of the employees. My wife won’t even say his name any more.
Oaktree’s latest investment letter from the WSJ
(an excellent explanation of Mark to Market - caution 13pg pdf)
http://tinyurl.com/37ztmx
These stories really bother me. These are some of the actual innocent victims, not some FB who HELOC’d their way to financial hell:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080328/NEWS05/803280410
and here’s another angle to that. Our breed rescue group, for a breed that is popular right now and very expensive, is inundated with turn ins from people who can’t afford the vet bills anymore or even to feed them. And then we have the Amish, down the food chain, who are liquidating their puppy mill stock because the market for $3,000 puppies just isn’t what it used to be.
http://www.frenchbulldogrescue.org
Are you saying the Amish traffic in these particular dogs, but are now just killing them off ’cause the market for them has tanked???
that’s what I’m saying
Up here (er, well over in Indiana), the Amish have been breeding draft horses in quantities well in excess of market demand. They dump them at the horse auctions, and many end up heading to Mexico and Canada for slaughter.
From what I understand, the quality, temperament, breeding, etc. are all top-notch, which leaves a lot of people perplexed - why go through all the trouble and expense?
This info about the Amish running puppy mills, and apparently horses for slaughter is really shocking. Thanks for the info.
Silliest phone conversation I ever participated in was with my girlfriend-of-the-time who rented the apartment over the carriage house on the small hobby farm. “They are killing Susie the pig! sob sob sob!” to grinding and squealing noises in the background.”
I grew up in the city yet understood the basic idea of pig farming that she couldn’t grasp. Rule number 1: don’t make pets of the food animals.
The only bail out I would support would be a national rescue program for the abandoned pets. people that do this can rot in h*ll
Amen (and I have a rescue dog named Moki, moqui, good name, old Ute word for the Anasazi)!
Perhaps we could export the unwanted dogs to Korea?
A sobering look at Medical cost in this country;
http://www.cms.hhs.gov/TheChartSeries/downloads/Chartbook_2007_pdf.pdf
Just look at the charts and explain how we shouldn’t have universal, yes that’s socialized, coverage here?
We need either socialized medicine or health insurance needs to become for catastrophes only.
Costs skyrocket when people aren’t forced to have a much of a stake in how much any health care costs.
For instance, It’s cheaper to prevent or control diabetes through diet. How much incentive is there to do that when you pay only $20 (or $50) of the total drug cost total $100s per month?
When everyone can’t afford it (or not enough) then the costs will come down the old fashioned way.
Exactly. Universal health care would workjust about as well as a universal housing program.
Having been self-employed for many years, I’ve had many interesting conversations with health care people. More than a few of them seem to be amazed at the fact that I’m still alive, since I seldom go for all of those checkups and screening tests that we’re all supposed to get.
Since I don’t have one of those “covers everything and anything” insurance policies, I am pretty careful about when and how I spend my health care money. (I have a high deductible policy.)
For example, I’ve had quite the running battle with the dentist’s staff over their insistence on doing X-rays on every other visit. I can’t help thinking that all of this X-raying is going on in order for them to keep up the payments on the equipment. Personally, I think that X-rays are only warranted when a problem is indicated. I don’t think that the staff’s “needing to keep my chart updated” rises to that level of urgency.
More than a few of them seem to be amazed at the fact that I’m still alive, since I seldom go for all of those checkups and screening tests that we’re all supposed to get.
Well, its a good thing I do. It was discovered that I had polyps (the kind that become cancerous) in my colon. They were removed.
gee. dental xrays are so cheap to even complain. the labor for the operator (what operator?) is more expansive.
So why does it work better in EVERY country that has it. as this report shows?
Because we are the only country that has privately socialized medicine which contains the absolute worst parts of the socalism (non reponsive/non accountable bueracracy) and capitalism (profiteering and institionalized monopolies).
My theories is we need to do the deed (publicly socalized health care) *or* a move much closer to free market medicine system. I’m partial to free market but either way is cheaper.
Japan has universal health care and the healthiest population on earth.
http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN020063.pdf
Unlimited 10% co-pay on everything, too.
You definitely don’t want health insurance only for catastrophic problems. Then that diabetic you spoke of will not show up to his diabetes clinic until he has gangreen of the leg. What we need is a national medicare plan that only covers preventetive care and treatments with a high cost benefit ratio. If you want expensive treatments than you purchase a supplemental policy or pay out of pocket. Drug companies ect would cut costs to keep their treatments below the cut off of the national health insurance cut off. Insurance companies would cut costs to keep people interested in getting their supplemental policy. Patients would go to their primary care provider instead of the ER. Caps on malpractice insurance would help as well. If the MD looses a certain # of cases then they have to take time off for re training or loose their license.
But you assume the insurance companies and hospitals would not do their best to make sure the cut off levels would be extremely high.
Any reform is likely to go the way of the plan D and end up as a windfall for the industry.
Maybe we could have the defense industry and the healthcare industry duke it out in a winner take all competition for our tax monies…
Costs skyrocket when people aren’t forced to have a much of a stake in how much any health care costs.
I agree. But we also have to keep a lid on what heathcare providers charge. The costs (or should I say price) is orders of magnitude higher than in other countries.
Sure, they will scream (who wants to lose a gravy train?), but what will they do? Move to Canada?
“Sure, they will scream (who wants to lose a gravy train?), but what will they do? Move to Canada?”
They’ll do what every other company has done when faced with a fixed price ceiling. They’ll cut back their supply. So in the end, we’ll have a shortage of healthcare resources and an expanding blackmarket for such services.
33% of total medical costs go to HMO/insurance company PROFITS. It’s time reel in the HMO fraud.
What is your reference for this tidbit?
It was in an commentary/article by Dean Baker of CEPR.
It’s the standard figure at MHA programs (hosp admin).
In HMOs and some of the “newer” hospital systems decision-making layers go from 2-3 to 5-6.
Nurses and docs don’t get that - it’s all the useless eaters in between.
The main argument for universal health care is that our insurance system has been a disaster (in terms of value– not quality of care which is okay) and HMOs are similarly starting to burst at the seams. As costs rise or even if they stay the same, fewer and fewer business will be able to afford it in a recession environment, and more and more people will have to turn to the public sector. With ever increasing limitations on the private sector, I would say the two are becoming increasingly comparable.
Just so long as the government doesn’t provide universal health insurance. Here private companies profit from the risks while the tax payers foot the bill. Have the government pay doctors and nurses directly and cut out the insurance industry entirely.
I still prefer no government involvement and true free markets.
–
Our sickness-care system is the best example of the most screwed up blend of capitalism and democracy (also known as socialism) in the world.
I highly recommend Democracy, Socialism, and Capitalism by Joseph Schumpeter. (I believe that he received the Nobel Prize for this work and not his best work – Business Cycles).
Jas
Maybe just: choose one or the other
Tonnage flat for February.
http://www.truckline.com/NR/exeres/36647370-FCF6-4481-B4D6-1D4C4EA3E68A.htm
March 28 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank will offer banks additional cash for six months for the first time as it seeks to facilitate lending and loosen a credit-market gridlock.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ4nybZy8zXM&refer=home
From yesterday’s thread”Here Come the Bankers…”
“”Comment by Thomas
2008-03-27 15:48:21
“The elites and their cohorts were first in line for the guillotine!”
Followed in short order by the first crop of revolutionaries, who were judged insufficiently zealous, and then the second crop of revolutionaries, and then the third, until people got so tired of tripping over heads that they installed a dictator who got a million more people killed.
Call me a reactionary or whatever, but I think Edmund Burke had the Jacobins’ number.”
Thomas, don’t get me wrong, I do not want to see a repeat of the French Revolution, however it did remove the primary cause of the problem-the Aristocrats and their cohorts, financiers, Church, and then big business. And like you said, they ate their own.
The sad thing about revolutions is that once the flood gates are opened and all civil authority breaks down, its every dog for themselves.
You know, the elites is arrange an orderly transition of power/authority if they should so desire, however thats against human nature, like now. The way it seems to operate is that the elites hold on to power until a crisis comes to an inflection point, and then its to late to proceed rational in a controlled manner.
One final note, I was hoping J. Edwards would be come the dem’s candidate. I think that he would have honestly challenged and fought the current economic players and then compromise or at least of path could be laid out towards reconciliation.
I understand your reference to Burke, since my major was political theory in a PolySci major. Really, I do not think anyone want total anarchy. Everyone gets hurt, including the loss of life.
For any interested (probably none).
I am buying GM today. You do not wish to know my target because you will all think I am nuts.
I am always interested in your market opinions, but why GM and why now?
It is the end of the quarter, the crappy funds are doing window dressing and do not wish to show GM on their trading accounts. GM is not US profits. They have done gangbusters in China. They are making a boatload of moneys overseas. This is an export/profit play.
Thanks for the details, Hoz.
Puts or calls?
lol - I am not as smart as Ms. Txchick and others, I do not trade options. I’ll stick with the first derivative - shares.
This is suitable for me, myself and I and is not suitable for any but the craziest and most insane traders. I have the tools that will allow me to get out of the trade with a minimal loss if necessary.
Thanks for the details.
Ford.
? Gm should trade back down to $18.
–
I own Jan’10 puts on GM. GM should go down to single digit. The question is: which single digit? above 5 or below 5?
Jas
Maybe, but not as likely as Citigroup going to $7.875.
Just curious……why do you think so low??
What’s the reasoning behind your call on GM?
I think part of the reasoning is “What does J6P want and need?” and what to the SWF’s want to buy?
The contagion from the financials has created a focus on what the real economy in America is about.
Do not be blinded what is right now, see what is to become. The busisness of the US is not quite wrapped up.
voz talks his book:
General Motors
DOW Chemical
Sprint
SOV
GNMA
HTE
WPT.TO
CLNE
QCLN
not short, Im thinking of hedging GE with CNY?
Hoz, thoughts? should I short Santander? then Im good?
I’m an unfrozen caveman lawyer.
HBBers have said before that these large houses would be partitioned into apartments like their victorian ancestors. Here is the first example I have seen. 3000 sq ft house converted into a three unit apartment including three kitchens and additional bedrooms in garage. All unpermited of course.
Zip Realty link:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2vzxko
seems Hillary was NOT lying about Bosnia. Video here:
http://www.slatev.com/blog.html
Very funny!
For anyone looking to debunk false optimism on mortgage resets:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/bloomberg-pronounces-hope-for-subprimes.html
Hillary was being honest about Bosnia!
http://www.slatev.com/blog.html
lol nice editing
One finally thing, I got to say, Technology was sold to the American public(and the world) as a solution to all our problems. Well, guess what, its not!
It has become a distraction. Its like staring at your belly button. Like everything physical, through money at it and it will solve the problem. If we are going to throw money away, how about our educational system?
If we are going to throw money away, how about our educational system?
Already doing that. The education per-dollar per child we receive is approaching 0. If you factor in the Indoctornation into worship of the State and other social factors the government education system may have negative education value per dollar spent!
Wayy off topic and I can’t find the info in old threads.
I have 40k I need to park for unknown amount of time,
what are some good online savings accounts? Is ETrade or Capital One decent?
I notice Countrywide has some good rates haha just kidding.
Put it all on black.
haha tempting
Symbol
CNY
Good point.
Maybe you’d enjoy these interesting thoughts about Morgan Stanley
http://www.etfexpert.com/etf_expert/2008/03/currency-etfs-p.html
I am aware of the article, the actions by the Federal Reserve however refute any addtl risk. lol (And yes Barclays would be marginally safer, but it is riskier to leave the money in dollars than to go to a Yuan etf managed by MS.)
oooh, now ~that’s~ a long-term growth stock.
I’ll just make my weekly stump for using landmines to control the border with Mexico.
A few of those in the desert and I bet the problem with the aliens goes away.
why not perform a little Quality Control check by placing the first one in your Barcalounger?
Gosh, you sound hostile to the idea.
Give it a while but it will grow on you.
Start fining companies 100k per illegal per year violation and the illegal problem will go way down, too.
Go for the “5 Mexican Generals” plan instead.
“When I talk about the five Mexican generals, people think I’m joking but I’m dead serious,” said Friedman. “I will divide the border into five jurisdictions, assigning one Mexican general to each and providing a trust fund for that general. Every time a person crosses illegally, we subtract $5,000 from the trust fund.”
how will they even know if a person crossed illegally.
After An Ugly First Quarter, Stocks Are Hoping to Party
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080328/23845033.html
“There’s still going to be caution, it’s still going to keep the market at bay, but the fundamentals are not bad,” says Peter Miralles, president of Atlanta Wealth Consultants. “It’s a good time for investors to be accumulating investments for the third and fourth quarters.”
“I wouldn’t go rushing in, but we’re certainly seeing signs of a little bit of a bottom.”
“I just think it’s more of the fact that you can’t have another Bear Stearns,”
“These next three months are very hard to guess, but the fundamentals are there for recovery,”
Where have I heard those kinds of lines before? Yun’s spin tactics are making the rounds among other so-called consultants. Buy now, they aren’t making anymore stocks like this!
Welcome to the Crumbling Future of the Vegas Strip
As they say a picture is worth something.
http://io9.com/371219/welcome-to-the-crumbling-future-of-the-vegas-strip
Six earth cities that will provide blueprints for Martian settlers
http://io9.com/372746/six-earth-cities-that-will-provide-blueprints-for-martian-settlers
A rendering of what tract housing might look like… in a Martian crater.