The Housing Bubble

The Sun Herald reports from Florida. “Tern Bay Golf & Country Club Resort, the first phase of a 1,789-acre, 1,810-home development, is now owned by the landscaper. And Scott Hawkins will sell it to you, to anyone, for the $300,000 he’s owed on the stalled project. One caveat: ‘You can’t build a house, can’t get a permit, can’t do anything until this thing is settled,’ he said. ‘There are a lot of people who are owed a lot more money than I am. I was just the one who got the ball rolling.’”

“Its 18-hole golf course is closed and only 14 homes were built before the project simply stopped last summer. Tern Bay LLC signed Lennar Corp. as its sole builder. Lot sales were coordinated by Priority Developers Inc. In August, Lennar dropped out.”

“‘Lennar’s deal allowed them to abandon the project and forfeit their $10 million deposit,’ said Ross McIntosh, a Naples land broker. ‘So Lennar went home,’ he continued, ‘leaving Priority holding a $100 million bag, which it didn’t remotely have the means to sustain.’”

“Sarasota developer Pat Neal said whoever steps in will seek a renegotiable bargain. The project ‘is actively for sale and will be sold 30 to 40 cents to the dollar,’ he said. ‘It will come back with another developer as a new project’ no sooner than 2013.”

“Until then, Griffith Construction Inc. President Bill Griffith said, ‘I feel sorry for the one person living there.’”

The Herald Tribune from Florida. “Last month, Palmetto developer and home builder David P. Lewis defaulted on four loans from Naples-based Orion Bank totaling $12.5 million. Three of the loans were taken out by Lewis’ company, Manatee Moccasin Wallow Inc., to finance a 40-acre development in Palmetto that Lewis bought for $3.4 million during the real estate boom and where he planned to build 96 single-family homes.”

“The fourth loan, for $4.8 million, was secured by Lewis’ Palmetto Estates, a 56-acre housing development in Palmetto.”

“Like so many other builders and developers, Lewis suffered from declining sales in the post-boom environment. He sold 57 homes in 2005, 35 homes in 2006 and 26 in 2007. So far in 2008, he has only sold three, court records show.”

“Early last year, Lewis attempted to sell off his 96-unit Manatee Moccasin Wallow development as well as a 284-unit town house project he had planned near U.S. 301 and Interstate 75 for $9.9 million, but he was unsuccessful.”

“Sarasota artist Erez Back has defaulted on five loans totaling $3.1 million since November 2006. Three of the loans, totaling $1.36 million, are payable to the Bank of New York. The other two, totaling $1.74 million, are owed to US Bank.”

“Back bought a house in Sarasota for $175,000 in June 2002. He then bought four more properties during the boom for $3.1 million. Back could not be reached for comment.”

“Drive down any Sarasota street these days, and it seems the path is dotted with for-sale signs. Those homes on the market just may have a new owner: the bank.”

“‘Our sellers of tomorrow are the banks,’ said Kathy Marlowe, of Keller Williams Realty, who estimated the majority of her sales in the coming year could be bank-owned property.”

“Marlowe and four other partners have formed a new real estate team dedicated to foreclosures. The newly minted ‘Florida Foreclosure Team’ will be starting guided tours that highlight area properties that banks are hoping to jettison.”

“‘The homes in foreclosure are really all over the board,’ said Marci Walker of Blue Skye Lending, including everything from million-dollar waterfront condos to modest properties.”

The Bradenton Herald from Florida. “While the tour is a good way to raise awareness, Mike Rahn, mortgage lender at CNL Bank. said many of those looking to buy short sale or foreclosure properties aren’t being realistic. Some offers the banks receive are so low that they are not even taking them despite the state of the market and not wanting to be property owners.”

“‘I don’t think there’s any magic bullet, I think it’s just going to have to run its course,’ Rahn said. ‘I think we’re going to be in ‘09 before we see a real recovery.’”

“According to Manatee County Clerk of Circuit Court records, there were 427 foreclosures in March, more than any single month in 2007 and so far in 2008. Experts believe that things may get worse before they get better.”

“‘There’s still an awful lot of adjustable mortgages out there and we’re told that more will be resetting this year,’ said Carol Ciarniello, executive director of the Center for Financial Independence.”

“Ciarniello has seen a decrease in the number of people turning to the organization for help to save their homes. She’s unsure if the change is because there are more investors in trouble or if people are just too scared or embarrassed to reach out for help.”

The Palm Beach Post from Florida. “With a growing number of homeowners having trouble keeping up with their mortgage payments, the city on Monday announced a $1 million program to try to forestall foreclosures.”

“For some qualified homeowners, the city will offer up to $10,000 in emergency assistance to pay arrearages. Nearly 2,000 homes in the city are in ‘pre-foreclosure,’ city officials said”.

The Sun Sentinel from Florida. “In February, more than 1,700 Palm Beach County homeowners were at least 90 days late on their mortgage payments and were in danger of losing their homes to lenders, according to Realestat.com. That’s more than double the number of people facing Foreclosure in the same month last year.”

“Broward County had more than 2,200 homeowners in danger of Foreclosure in February, also more than double the number a year ago.”

“The United Way of Palm Beach County and other agencies sponsored a one-day seminar in February in Boynton Beach designed to help homeowners facing Foreclosure. The keynote speaker was HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson, who announced his resignation Monday.”

“‘The housing crisis has been a powerful, staggering shock to our economy,’ Jackson told the crowd of more than 400. ‘Millions of homeowners have felt it. … The ripple effect touches financial institutions and governments everywhere.’”

“It’s a clear morning on Fort Lauderdale Beach ‘It’s the perfect storm,’ Eric Kozlowski said.”

“Inside Primanti Brothers Pizzeria, Kozlowski, who’s cooking at the grill, wasn’t talking about the weather. Rather, the perfect combination of factors that have small businesses on the beach reeling: the collapse of the South Florida housing market, the dramatic downturn in the national economy, the transition of Fort Lauderdale beach property from middle-class family-friendly to high-end resorts.”

“In the past, beach businesses would hope to capitalize on Spring Break to catch up. But this year, they haven’t even had much of that. ‘A few years ago, they started a campaign with a motto: Fort Lauderdale — positively posh,’ Kozlowski said. ‘Well, you can shoot a cannon ball down that beach and not hit a positively posh person.’”

“‘I won’t mention names, but I’ve been open here 38 years and have ties to a lot of the saloons and restaurants in town, and I don’t know anyone who’s doing better than breaking even,’ said Tim Schiavone, owner of another nearby beach icon, The Parrot.”

“‘I don’t know what’s going to turn it around,’ Schiavone said. ‘It seems the middle class in America is being squeezed out. And that’s my market. When your gasoline bill is up $100 a week, and electric is 40 percent higher and your condo is new on the tax rolls and insurance is higher, you’re not likely to go out to dinner.’”

“He paused for the right words. ‘Too many dogs and not enough bones.’”

The Augusta Chronicle from Georgia. “Growth in Columbia County, the fastest-growing section of the Augusta metro area, is finally starting to slow.”

“‘Columbia County is definitely holding up better than the average, but we have felt it,’ said Jim Courson, the owner of Jim Courson Realty in Martinez. ‘There’s no question about that. Any Realtor who tells you differently is lying.’”

“For those who can qualify for a mortgage, Columbia County is a buyer’s market. There are more than 1,400 homes for sale in the county, according to the Realtors association.”

“Faced with paying long-term interest on unsold new homes, many builders are discounting home prices in an effort to sell them quickly. ‘A lot of them now don’t want the cheese,’ said Johnny Hensley, a VP for ReMax of Augusta. ‘They just want to get out of the trap.’”

The Post & Courier from South Carolina. “The somber statistics measuring the housing market in Charleston just keep coming like a steady stream of termites squirming out of woodwork. Charleston-area home sales in the first two months of the year plummeted 28.5 percent from the same period of 2007.”

“And the number of properties for sale has stretched to a whopping 10,850 listings.”

“After two years of such dismal indicators, the foundation of the area real estate business is full of holes. Some say the whole works are close to collapsing. Others say it already has.”

“Jaime Banda watched his lenders ratchet up a loan agreement last year when he was trying to buy a house and his credit score faltered. Banda’s expected payment went from $1,426 a month to over $2,000.”

“Banda got a better deal when he improved his credit and eventually moved into a 1,600-square-foot house between Moncks Corner and Goose Creek in December. The property was flanked by homes for sale. Since he plunked down $175,000 for his property, prices on the neighboring homes have been cut from $259,900 to $229,000, and from $219,000 to $194,000.”

“‘I’m not going anywhere, but it makes me nervous if I had to sell,’ Banda said.”

“Dan Ravenel said the current slump is just part of a cycle, the type of free-market adjustment that he has seen a number of times in his 31 years of selling homes.”

“‘It concerns me for my clients, because I see a lot of them frustrated … but I’ve been there before and I think old folks like me weather these storms very well,’ he said. ‘We didn’t spend all our money last Christmas.’”

“Slumping sales and the subsequent media reports haven’t helped, he acknowledged, but he noted that the industry is slipping from a lofty perch — the huge appreciations of 2004 and 2005.”

“‘I would love to think that press was wholly to blame for this, but it’s not that easy,’ Ravenel said. ‘It will take a while to recover. People are skittish. Nobody wants to be foolish.’”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “Sales of the Triangle’s existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month in February. Existing home sales declined 16 percent from a year ago in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties to a total of 1,590, according to the Triangle MLS.”

“Job growth and a market unscathed by speculator-driven purchases had kept the Triangle housing market relatively strong during the national housing slowdown. But slowing job growth, record foreclosures, which added hundreds of additional homes into the market, and tighter lending restrictions have cooled the local market from its 2006 record.”

“Wes Minton, an owner of the York Simpson Underwood residential brokerage in Raleigh, said brokers and sellers were spoiled by record sales years from 2003 through 2006.”

“‘It was good so long, it can’t be that good all the time in any business,’ Minton said.”

“‘Sellers saw such big numbers in sales prices for so long everybody thinks their house will bring top dollar,’ said Minton, whose sales are down about 10 percent from last year. ‘But in the market now, things aren’t bringing top dollar. There are plenty of houses selling, but sellers aren’t getting as much as they hoped.’”

“Pending sales — an indication of future closings — were down 23 percent from a year earlier. The number of homes on the market with price drops was 69 percent higher than in 2007. Expired listings are up 189 percent, and withdrawn listings are up 29 percent, said TMLS real estate analyst Stacey P. Anfindsen.”

“Linda Craft of Raleigh, who sells about 350 homes annually, said she has increased advertising and now hires home stagers for all listings. But another key to higher sales is advising sellers not to expect prices from a bygone market.”

“‘Six months ago, agents would ask another 6 to 10 percent, and in a down market that formula doesn’t work,’ Craft said. ‘Now we’re putting [prices] where the market really is.’”

“‘You’ve got a real housing slowdown on your hands,’ said Moody’s Economy.com economist Michael Helmar. ‘It still isn’t as bad as the rest of the world, but that doesn’t mean you are not having some struggles. It just means the rest of the world is worse.’”