Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 6, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
GOLD VS DOLLAR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6NfXk7Bvc8
how was the realturd cocktail party?
are we on the verge of an upswing in the market ?
in case you did not see my post from yesterday fellow hb people
in regards to me possibly buying a coop- well i am not
thanks for the input and the desperation of these realturds is obvious from my brief encounter yesterday
enjoy your sunday and i will sign my new lease this week and quite frankly i am relieved that my wife is 100% on board
Glad you two could agree and keep the marital harmony in place.
Wouldn’t mind hearing about the realtor desperation part if you’re so inclined, as to what happened.
blano
the broker was actually a nice young man but after we looked at the place he went back to the office and we stayed and looked at the 2nd. we then went back to the office and he says there is already a cash offer on the 1st one and we should make an offer. (my cue to leave)
although the building was nice (pre war grand lobby) the apt was huge (by nyc standards) the kitchen must have been designed by a blind man and was in dire need of 20-25k overhaul which i was not into
i will call him today and tell him no thanks
we have been looking for 3 years and i will not settle and by having my rent stay the same is great
by this time next year i will have alot more cash and prices will hopefully dip another 10-15 %
i did tell my wife i would send her on another trip with her girlfriends next winter so she is happy and i even got a great home cooked dinner
as much as i may bitch about my rental it is really pretty sweet 3 beds 2 baths hardwood, granite, ss appliances yada yada yada and my rent is very fair considering a 3 bed home in my area will sell for 600k plus and it is attached on both sides so i am happy to stay for the next year or more
MG :
where do you live now? Why not consider sunnyside queens? lots of 2 family attached homes, plus lots have garages or off street parking…and wait it out to buy sunnyside gardens is nice lots of converted co-ops but parking is terrible…but no one considers the other side or queens blvd.
dj i live in middle village a few miles i way
not a big fan of sunnyside or woodside
if we eventually do buy it will be in forest hills-kew gardens or lic
Nice area..but i am not a fan of taking a bus to a subway, or back, at least we can walk home from the 7 at 40th st station at night.
Hmmm, somebody taking the bus up Woodhaven Blvd. every evening? God that trip is awful in the winter when the slush is knee deep :> At least you can walk when the weather is good.
blano one last thing the realtor was asing about my fico and credit debt situation
he was SHOCKED we have 0 debt
these days a credit card balance is as common as a car note
except on this blog i guess (we are weirdos i guess)
Good for you. The first time he mentioned the cash offer I would have said, “good for you. I will just go take a quick dump and be on my way.” That’s the only down payment I would have left behind.
nyc boy you are so thoughtful
lmao
That is why one should always eat the jumbo spicy burrito platter before going to look at real estate. You never know when it will come in handy.
LOL
Thanks for sharing. When I hear the “cash offer” stuff I like to ask why they don’t just take it, and see what they say. Sort of call them out on it as it were.
If you call them on the bs chances are they have nothing.
Well I had several conversations, one with an appraiser that told me point blank that his business was way off and that he didn’t see it coming back anytime soon so he is looking for a part time job. Spoke with one developer that told me things were a little slower but he’s looking forward to… Get this, a government ‘bailout’ I asked why, he said because they have to. No need to further that conversation, a waste of time. I also spoke with a RE salesman, same story business is a little slow, but looking for a big up-tick this summer. It really is amazing to speak with other wise bright people that look at what’s going on and see it as just a temporary situation. It’s as if they are truly disconnected from reality. Unbelievable to me in many ways.
The builders:
- Houses built with illegal labor
- Used their mortgage arms to get people into mortgages they couldn’t afford
- Executives cashed out huge dollars just as their stocks were collapsing
- Overbuilt a huge number of homes to satisfy the phantom demand they created
I can see where we need to bail these a–holes out. Even that monkey man Cramer is screaming about the handout to the HBs in the latest bailout bill. Am I the only one that thinks this provision might just get removed?
I`m with you. I don`t think it will pass. It better not!
Lane
Yes, I agree. I normally “HATE” listening to Cramer (turn him off) but the other day I watched the beginning of his show and was pleasantly surprised to hear him trashing Congress for putting $6B in the bailout program for homebuilders.
This attitude that Wall Street (and related REIC industries) need to get bailed out of their foolishness needs to get tamped down pretty quickly. Nowhere is it written that New York *has* to be the center of our financial universe.
The new NAR commercial shows they are totally disconnected from reality.
The home builders are a bunch of hard core, macho, azzholes, who think that the world revolves around them. They deserve to be slapped down, instead of bailed out.
They deserve to fail. Again.
Just spoke w/ my sister yesterday about her keen interest in buying a home at the moment (Denver area). She just had a deal fall through. Her claim is that the kind of places she is interested in buying (condos priced under $250K) are still moving. I cautioned her that her biggest risk (as a qualified buyer) is overpaying, given the possibility that the market may continue adjusting downwards for some time against the backdrops of a glut of homes on the market, a wave of foreclosures coming back on the market, and evidence the economy’s slowdown may continue for a protracted period of time. She agreed to become a serial lowballer for the time being as a precaution against overpaying.
LOL … “serial lowballer”, I love it.
It’s no contest. Uncle Buck knocked out in the 2008th round.
If you say this often enough, everyone will start believing like you do and Uncle Buck will collapse. And if you believe this, I have some swamp land in Florida I would like to sell you.
“And if you believe this, I have some swamp land in Florida I would like to sell you.”
Can you send me a brochure?
Here ya go…
THE FLORIDA BOOM AND BUST, 1919-1929
Specious argument. You can’t ‘will’ a fiat currency to keep its’ value. Every fiat goes to zero and there is nothing you can do about that. Anyway, I have no impact on the value of the USD; you should be confronting Bernanke, Bush, and Paulson for destroying your beloved buck.
The value of any asset drops to zero, in the long run.
“…your beloved buck.”
I think you are mistaking my pointing out your own hatred of Uncle Buck for a statement of my own preferences.
I liked my Fiat’s, even though their heaters were like “Old Italian women with Emphazema breathing on your legs”.
How bout the Firenza?
a road not taken by lenders
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/business/06gret.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
“WE’VE all heard a great deal in recent months about the greedy borrowers who caused the subprime mortgage calamity.”
That’s not what I’ve heard at all. I heard they were all “victims” that need to be bailed out. I couldn’t get past about the third paragraph of this article. This “journalist” was trying to do what I see here so often, using one wrong to justify another wrong. “Sure the borrowers must have lied BUT the lenders should have stopped the lie.”
She fails to see that the borrowers and lenders were accomplices in a crime. Neither party deserves sympathy or special treatment. One wrong doesn’t make another wrong right.
I’ve heard both. “We need to keep people in their homes.” and “The lenders shouldn’t suffer because the borrowers lied about income.”
This article address the latter. That is BS because the lender should have known the income. In most cases it would have cost them $20.
I do think there were some victims of predatory lending. Buyers who should have gotten, but were denied, 30 yr fixed rate.
I also think a lot of people bought homes that should not have. Many will now lose their homes. Maybe what the Government should be doing is helping them move into affordable rentals
“I do think there were some victims of predatory lending. Buyers who should have gotten, but were denied, 30 yr fixed rate.”
Is it possible to be in 150% agreement?
I’m sure this has happened as well. I’ve related this story before but I’ll mention again how it almost happened to me.
I was closing a loan for a multi-unit with Fremont mortgage back in 2003. I was initially dealing with some gal located in Seattle or someplace out in the PNW. I spent a few hours over the course of a few weeks organizing the paper-work and speaking with her on the phone. We spoke several times about the rate, terms and the lock period, etc. I overlooked the truth-in-lending form that she should have provided, but I didn’t ask for, which would have confirmed this loan rate and terms. Anyway, I get the loan package for signing and it is a variable rate balloon. Now, I get forwarded to some ass-wipe gunslinger in Michigan who is probably her boss. I get the “take it or leave it” speach because it will take a few weeks to straighten it out. I opt for waiting so I of course then get the “we no longer can offer you that fixed rate” speach. I took the higher fixed rate (about 50 basis points).
It was my fault for not getting the deal in writing but I can state that without doubt these folks were running a scam. There was no way that they made a mistake in my case, it was intentional misrepresentation.
I would guess that many folks would not have had the ability to stall/delay the many other activities that need to be set up in advance of a closing (movers, end of leases, etc).
These motherf*ckers did this on purpose and frankly I hope they spend the next several years servicing bums down by the wharf to make rent.
This is the most damning story I’ve read here. Ever.
grim repo- a real growth industry
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04062008/news/regionalnews/prize__re_possession_105269.htm
That was fun. Maybe repo TV shows will replace flipper shows.
http://www.eos-21condos.com/
Desperate condo conversion of 70’s garden style apartments where even an public auction failed to sell off all the units a few weeks ago. Now they’ve put coupons in both the local paper (Wash Post) and on their website slashing prices down to the start price for bidding of the failed auction. In addition they are offering down payment & closing cost assistance. The place is an arm pit of a location and only a fool would buy them at any price. I fully expect that just like other failed conversions in the area (one less than a mile down the same road!!) they will go into bankruptcy, the trustee will sell/auction off the remaining units awe mass to pay the bank back for the conversion loan and the new buyer/owner will just hawk them as rentals w/ high end finishes inherited from the failed conversion.
Location: Metro DC Alexandria city Van Dorn Street
I used to live very close to that location for a year in the early 90’s but can’t tell from the web site whether that’s where I lived or not. The floor plans look similar including the lack of a washer/dryer in the units. Was that property formerly Oakwood Corporate Housing or is it some other nearby apartment complex that was converted to condos?
They are just north of a couple of restaurants (always changing) on the right and across from the Safeway Supermarket and the BJs Warehouse and before the interchange that will either take you into landmark mall or down onto Duke St./Little Turnpike interchange w/ 395.
Those places were well built, much better than most of the crap that’s been converted to condos in San Diego, but still better suited as apartments. The lack of covered parking and w/d in each unit would be a deal breaker. There must have been a few hundred units there. That’d be a lot to unload even in a good market.
Look at the flashy website and the cool name - Eon 21. And then think 70s gardenstyle.
lipstick on a pig
Basically and now at a new and improved lesser overpriced amount!!
awe mass = en masse
for when this gets babelfished
awe mass = en masse
‘for when this gets babelfished’
Actually, I liked Joe’s version.
I also like ‘babelfished’–I haven’t heard that one.
The Mortgage Bankers Association finding that they may have over-stretched on their purchase of their new HQ in D.C.
But how’s this for spin: “Anytime is the best time to buy,” said Kieran P. Quinn, chairman of the association. “Over a 10-year horizon, [the purchase] looks great.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040502632.html?hpid=topnews
How about all the commercial buildings near Dulles that were just built are still being built? This area seems to have way too many office buildings. I’m waiting to hear about the commercial building housing bubble in DC.
My office is in Chantilly and we’re surrounding by empty, newly-built office buildings.
That whole Chantilly/Dulles/28 has had tons of empty office buildings since I moved here in 2002.
I do dig that ominous upside-down black building near where 28 meets the toll road.
Yeah, that’s the CIT Building….I attended a couple of company events there…not all that special on the inside, but I agree, it looks pretty trippy from the outside:
http://www.inemi.org/cms/graphics/CIT.jpg
http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/media/buildings/121_2170.JPG
If I were a rich supervillain, I would buy that building and make it my headquarters.
[saw that my reply hadn't shown up]
When I grow up and become a gazillionaire supervillain, I plan to buy that building and turn it into my headquarters.
“Anytime is the best time to buy”
You couldn’t make this stuff up. It’s priceless.
It’s all good, baby, it’s all good.
taking pulse of the nyc boro’s (life support hopefully)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/realestate/06cov.html
Whoever wrote that article should be fired and then the school they went to should be burned down. I have a f—ing headache from reading that. In one sentence you would see that prices are flat. Then the next sentence would state that prices are down 6 percent. That article was all over the place. It’s as if it was written by a speed freak.
“But based on interviews with more than two dozen real estate brokers, the weaker sales figures don’t tell the entire story, because prices vary by neighborhood and within neighborhoods.”
That is some hard hitting journalism. They asked real estate brokers. Wow! No bias there.
I love how it said that Riverdale was still hot. It failed to mention the staggering amount of building that has gone on during the boom. There are condos everywhere.
This article told me much less about the state of the NYC housing market than it did the state of journalism. The NYC market seems to be hanging by a thread. Journalism appears to have already crashed.
this piece of crap article will without a doubt be the major talk on the nyc curbed and brownstoner blogs all day tomorrow
which btw are frequented by slimy brokers who call bitter renters, serfs and low lives
this was one of my favorite snippets from that piece of trash
Celia de Campos, who is from Brazil, wanted her college-age daughters, Barbara and Juliana, to have apartments near her and her husband in Astoria when they finish their schooling. Last April, with help from Adriano Hultmann, a broker for the Corcoran Group, she bought a one-bedroom condo at CityView in Long Island City for $390,000. In March, she paid the same amount for a one-bedroom apartment at Astor I in Astoria.
She is renting out the apartments until her daughters are ready for them — even though she says she is losing $2,700 a month after mortgage costs and common charges.
390k for citylights building lic ny - they did not mention the common charges in that building are over $1500 a month on a one bedroom or more in most cases
you can rent a 1 bed in that building for 2k or so
but i guess Ms. Campos could not have her little darlings renting you know like a lowlife
Thanks mg. I was going to post this as well.
That was the spotlight in the article for me too. At a loss of $2700 a month. That means it has to appreciate over $30,000 a year just to break even. That’s some good investing, huh?
OhYeah a 34 year old pouncing on a $400K bargain……
and the NYT must add a cute gay couple just to be politically correct
———————
She knew the neighborhood well enough that she was ready and able to pounce on the lower “presale” price of $400,000, compared with the current price of about $435,000
You thought they were cute? Interesting!
well you never see a FAT gay couple…do you?
That article should give anyone a headache. I imagine the neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens have improved since I left in 2000 but most of those mentioned were scary at best.
So the NYT are gay-friendly, but lookists! Lol!
Shouldn’t that caption read “Bargaining queens” rather than “Bargaining in Queens”?
“…and the NYT must add a cute gay couple just to be politically correct”
I think that’s required now…otherwise they face lawsuits.
Whatever. You don’t need laws.
You just pitch to the people with the most disposable income. It’s basic business common sense.
True, just think of all the JOBS in the Wedding business, that will created when gay people can marry.
Hey their money is just as good as yours, I can’t believe a good Republican would be against creating JOBS!
Screw that. Think of all the divorces.
Why the divorce lawyers are not marching in the streets will forever be a mystery to me!
WE are on a roll today Faster…….
Being a dj and a paralegal, maybe this is my ticket to finally being wealthy.
Or A 300lb Drag Queen Flower girl with unshaven legs….yes i had to announce him/her a few years back at a commitment ceremony.
ew….LEG HAIRS!
Where is LAinvestorgirl? I want an update on L.A. Last night on Flip That House some investor bought a 2,400 square foot L.A. home for $1,240,000. He put $200,000 into the property. His very masculine real estate agent told him he could ask $1,899,000 for the house. That would be a “projected profit” of $459,000.
At the end of the show it stated that he had not yet sold his palace. He had gotten several offers below his asking price. But he was holding on for his asking price. I hope this guy drowns in the pool.
they should change the classification of flp that house from reality show to fantasy satire
you think that is bad you should have heard this knucklehead who called into Suze (GIRLFRIEND) Oman last night
24 years old 96k in student loans just got a new job and is moving to MD and wants to buy a 250k condo and the kicker his total savings are 8k
thankfully she told him he was nuts but many people still have not gotten the memo too busy watching mtv i guess
You’ve won the Grand Prize in a raffle. But you get to choose which of the Grand Prizes you would like. Here are your options.
1) Punch Suze Orman in the face
2) Punch Barbara Corcoran in the face
3) Kick Jim Cramer in the nads
4) Kick Neil Cavuto in the nads
Which prize do you select?
No. 4
I second that.
what no choice (e) all of the above
that is my selection
What about (f), punch Charlie Gasbagarino?
What about Mister Ha Ha? (Tobin Smith) Sat. mornings on Fox News.
Two years ago, Suze would have told this 24 year old to buy the condo and use the eventual equity to pay off the student loan.
A week or so ago I was bored one evening and decided to turn on the TV. The PBS station was playing a tape from Suze Orman’s most recent book/seminar. Seems like most of her show was less to do about finances and more to do with self-esteem.
Sorry for the improper sentence structure, I’m still saturating my system with caffeine.
Sorry for the improper sentence structure, I’m still saturating my system with caffeine.
Me you forgive, as I too am saturating my system with caffeine. I’m drinking it girly-style today, using half a cup of whipped cream per coffee cup, as a Sunday indulgence. Also, little shaved chocolate sprinkles.
Olympiagal,
FYI, Bialetti Moka Express 9-Cup Coffeemaker at Target. It’s a “mocha maker” and not really true espresso. You can get it in stove top or electric. I have the electric. Makes coffee really strong, too! For you purists out there, not it’s not true espresso. Still, it’s really good and REALLY STRONG! The delectable result gives me a good case of tremors for at least 4 hours after drinking it. Good stuff.
Roidy
Still, it’s really good and REALLY STRONG! The delectable result gives me a good case of tremors for at least 4 hours after drinking it. Good stuff.’
Ooooh! That’s an endorsement! ‘Cause I always like it ‘really strong’, and that includes my coffee.
I’m naturally caffeinated, so when I drink a lot of coffee it sort of cancels out and I become like a Zen monk, serene and wise. But, if I happen to drink just a wee bit too much, why then, I begin to blink in and out of existence like an alien hummingbird, which can disconcert other meeting-goers. And the wisdom goes far far away.
Small price to pay for good coffee.
The best coffee ever: put water in pan, when boils, quickly put in TONS of coffee espresso grinds (say, 1/2 cup grounds to 3 cups water), let boil for a few seconds, take off heat and let stew for a couple of minutes. Pour into cup, be careful to NOT try to skim off grounds. Add fresh milk to cup, if too strong. If out in the backcountry and no fresh milk, add canned cow.
Cowdog coffee, will make you howl.
RE: let boil for a few seconds, take off heat and let stew for a couple of minutes.
You forgot to add the two broken eggs. The grinds catalyst around the shells taking them both to the bottom of the pot.
Maine riverguide recipe…
No, the grounds are the best part…
Saw that last night, and immediately thought
1- never ever put the back door inline with the front door..
FengShui means money in money Out. The money won’t stop there. Yeah, laugh all you want!
2- seriously, the guy should have taken taken some serious offers. Greedy bastid, is what I really thought.
But I liked the house/prop.
So this guy’s agent pretty much just pulls this price right out of his a$$ (uses comp sales and other listings to compare, but the actual price of 1,899,000 is right out of his a$$). So the Professor selling the house just has to hold out for full price. These people make me sick, but I can’t stop watching them.
I also liked the house.
We could be in the early stages of a consumer slowdown.
My brother in law is a store manager for a national department store chain. One of the lower priced discount stores. He’s getting very nervous. Sales have been slowing down a lot, lately. Their laying off employees and cutting back hours, for those left. Their falling well short of their sales budget. The slow down has accelerated in the last months.
If consumer are in the early stages of a prolonged slowdown in purchasing, the theory, being promoted in the MSM, of a short shallow recession, could get thrown out relatively soon.
the only stores i see packed are the grocery stores
the prices in stop & shop in queens are up 20-30% across the board wthout a doubt it has to hurt those on tight budgets
also i was the only one of several customers to pay in cash
credit card payments not debit card
I was in the Grand Central Rite Aid the other morning. There was a line of about 5 of us. The guy at the counter said, “next, but only if you are paying in cash”. The others in the line just stared at each other like they didn’t know what the word “cash” meant. He quickly pointed at me and said, “come on. You always pay in cash.” I guess paying in cash really makes you stand out.
So much for those stupid commercials where cash holds up the line, which it never really does. I’ve seen people take 3 minutes just to sign the stupid receipt that comes with their plastic savior.
I paid with dollar coins for a number of items yesterday. I got warm smiles instead of the fish eye that I used to get.
(I did get grumbling from the bank when I picked them up, natch!)
Everyone is in the same boat. Every dollar you spend on gas, utilities and groceries is one less dollar you’re going to spend on anything else.
MG:
You forgot to add in smaller packages too…so 50% is more like it..
You noticed Entemann’s discontinued their Premium products line…”ultimate” i guess they didn’t want to scare their customers away with the inflated price.
And now we have 48 ounce Ice cream….for more then a half gallon 2 years ago.
Picked up some Breyers (unilever) pints for $.75. There were so lightweight I think there was more air than ice cream.
Oh well, at least I won’t get fat on it.
“…a short shallow recession…”
The MSM “dime a dozen” economy articles are hilarious in their unquestioned belief that the consumer is totally in control of their spending. Now, the jobs are really starting to go - how are these “reluctant” “shy” “scared” consumers going to simply start spending again - if they have no job???
The government will make up the difference with “stimulus” packages. D’uhhh.
Silly me, I should know better. Government programs always work - and with little or no waste too!
Actually government programs seem to work best when the government tries to kill them. The decider tries to kill Amtrak every year - yet ridership is at record highs. Go figure.
I will be taking 2 round trips on Amtrak in April. The price isn’t that cheap but it’s a nice alternative to flying. I loved my Amtrak trip to Boston in October.
OT but:
I have been contemplating using the AutoTrain this summer for a NE vacation. Anyone have experience with the AutoTrain?
I have yet to figure out why flying is the same cost as taking the train. Perhaps that will change with fuel prices.
Hi, Jim, I’ve had experience with the Auto Train and I do recommend it, I’ve used it twice, the first time was 28 years ago when I first moved here and the second time was round trip about three years ago. Can’t say what it is like now, but it was just fine three years ago. The only thing I would say is, it gets into Lorton, VA early in the AM. If you haven’t slept well the night before, it can be a little hairy driving up 95.
Palmetto,
Thanks for the info. I really think I will try it this year.
JP–unlike airlines, Amtrak has to pay prop. tax on all their stations. Also, unlike airlines, they haven’t massively shed pension liabilities.
Train vs. plane fares really depend on what trains you ride and when, although recently Amtrak has trended higher. They are selling out trains a lot these days and need the revenue. Many of those airlines are running service at a lost. (Much of Amtrak’s cash needs are for capital and debt service on capital, as Congress mandated the NE Corridor project but then welched on paying for it and wants Amtrak to pay off Bombardier out of operating funds.)
CrackerJim–I think you will be pleasantly surprised, as Amtrak has done numerous upgrades to capital on the AutoTrain in the last decade. You can probably get a decent fare on it too because travel to Florida is probably getting a little anemic. I remember some fare specials on the AutoTrain a few months ago. Check the website; all the deals are on there.
My wife and daughter took the train from
Seattle to the east coast to look at universities last summer. Had a great time, really loved the train, the space, and the relaxation; it was amazingly affordable too. If you have the time, the train is highly recommended. I hate flying, with the totally full planes, no space to move, and the fat person squeezing me.
Grew up taking trains from PDX to ORD
and LAX to ORD plus returns.. As a kid they were so fun.
I would take train trip, definitely. Would be nice if gov helped out Amtrack instead of the ‘bridge to nowhere’ type of things.
I have yet to figure out why flying is the same cost as taking the train. Perhaps that will change with fuel prices.
There have been 4 airlines file for bankruptcy in the past week…with more to come.
Now, the jobs are really starting to go - how are these “reluctant” “shy” “scared” consumers going to simply start spending again - if they have no job???
Here’s how:
http://www.markfiore.com/animation/jobless.html
They are sure that the consumer will maintain spending, we (?) are sure he will get scared. I’m not sure that a scared US consumer spends less though… That would imply somewhat rational response to the crisis.
The Rotary Club here in town is having a hard time getting stores to donate for our annual golf scramble. The line over and over again is: “We’d love to, but business is too slow, come back next year.” The average value of our prizes is only about $25.00. Every fru-fru little useless gift type store has a huge “SALE!” banner in their windows yet I never see anyone in them… It’s particularly bad here since only about 10% (about 500 adults) of the town can afford to go to theses places anyway and we have 5-6 of them. I think we have closures coming very soon.
One story from “Ten Lost Years” by Barry Broadfoot, tells of a town in 1930’s Canada, where once a year, members of a church would be requested to give something to the unfortunate, in the form of a gift wrapped in white paper.
The guy that was responsible for unwrapping the gifts, estimated that over 1/2 of the “gifts” were just a rock or piece of wood in a gift wrapped box.
People had nothing left, except their pride…
Hi JWhite, its a good idea to tell us what town you live in or talking about…..some of us use our city/town/state in our handle. You never know who might live in the same town or close by.
Sorry. I’m in Southern Alabama- Outside of Tuscaloosa. Just far enough away that we have our own center of gravity and an altered reality - It’s sort of like living in the U.S, only in another dimension…
Holy Moroni, you sure you’re not in Utah?????
Utah would at least have skiing…
My parents were in the New Braunfels, Texas area (between Austin and San Antonio) in late March visiting my aunt and uncle. My parents understand what’s happening with the housing market, not so much yet with my Aunt and Uncle (solid “30 percenters”) though that may be changing. My parents noticed a couple of houses that were partially completed and appeared to have had no work done in quite some time. They also noted a new home develoment along I-35 with 3 bedroom/2 bath houses now selling for around $110K.
The more interesting part was the story of a contractor that had done some work on the house my aunt and uncle had built near New Braunfels 2 to 3 years ago and had done some work for them at a local art center. Earlier this year, some of the subcontractors for this contractor didn’t do some planned work at the art center. My parents wondered if it was because they weren’t getting paid by that contractor, something my aunt and uncle dismissed at the time.
This contractor just recently committed suicide. He’d apparently done a nice business building houses in that area for the last decade or so, but one would surmise the market has gotten much tougher in that area. This seems quite interesting in that New Braunfels is not too far removed from Austin and appeared to bubble around the same time. Very unfortunate end for that contractor.
seems like another day another suicide
another thing from this debacle that just keeps on giving
sad stuff
Suicide over the business cycle is incomprehensible. Having a terminal disease and wanting to end the suffering, is another matter. You can remedy or reconcile $ issues.
Agree. Money is the easiest thing in the world to replace.
When money is the basis of one’s self worth and suddenly the money is gone…
“They also noted a new home develoment along I-35 with 3 bedroom/2 bath houses now selling for around $110K.”
Yup, the IH-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio saw lots of builders and other Cargo Cultists (thanks, Alladinsane) move in and put up rows of sterile, cookie cutter houses.
It’s not exactly and apples-to-apples comparision, but what happened in places like Kyle and San Marcos kind of reminds me of Manassass, Virginia…except Hovnanian and Ryan and the other big builders were asking for almost $400K for 3 bed/2 bath houses in Manassass vs. say $130K for a similar house in Kyle.
$400K? Why not $800K? I mean, Manassas is special!
Obviously, their problem wasn’t using dramatic enough pricing, for that “wow” factor.
~_^
It sounds like next week’s weekend topic will have to be, “The Misery of the Fallout”. We might all need to take a handful of Prozac washed down by my good friend Jack Daniels before we start reading the postings. Good lord.
We make too big a deal out of money. I will admit that I focus on it too much but I think for me it’s the security aspect not the, “what can I buy?” aspect. Either way, it’s stress that is so unnecessary.
You must be well to afford the good stuff. My fav is “no-name” and 7-UP!
For a lot of people the accumultion of money is a way of keeping score, a way of measuring one’s progress in life’s journey. Much of their self esteem, their identity, is measured by how much they make, how much they spend, how much they store away.
Take away their money and their identity goes with it, then life loses its purpose and is no longer worth living.
This ties in with the Protestant concept of “Enlightened Self-Interest.” There are several denominations–most-notably in the U.S. the Episcopal, Presbyterian, and Methodist churches–that teach, directly or by implication, that wealth is an indicator of ones status with God. All three are heavily favored by socialites and and the wealthy. Similar beliefs are fostered in Reformed Judaism, while New Thought churches teach that wealth is indicator of ones “correct” thinking.
Raised in such environments, how can conformist children (the vast majority) turn into reasonable adults? Virtually ALL of my neighbors subscribe to this philosophy (I’d use the word “heresy” if I were a Christian), and would consider themselves God’s outcasts if they couldn’t maintain the lifestyles He supposedly handed them. The fact that many have made their money by dubious, or even blatantly immoral, means does not in any way diminish their feelings of Divine Providence, since their God is apparently as irrational as they, and runs a country-club as snobbish as those they belong, or aspire, to here on Earth.
These people are not bad; they really believe wealth = successful living: a favorite claim of television evangelists. People who brag about their children or spouses being doctors and lawyers are among the most pitiful, since their supposed success is only by proxy (perhaps in heaven they have to stay in guesthouses instead of the reported “many mansions”).
I LIKE REV IKE:
God didn’t mean for you to be poor…
http://www.revike.org/
Rev. Ike dared to go where most theologians, Bible teachers, and preachers would not. As an evangelist, on TV, radio, and at mass meetings, he had the “nerve” to PREACH “Prosperity NOW!”
The “Prosperity Gospel” is a favorite theology at many of those “non-denominational” megachurches that have names live Living Waters” and “Wellspring of Life”
I, too, like Rev Ike.
His message was clear, concise, to the point: “Don’t send your money to the church or anywhere else except to me, Rev Ike.
“You can’t lose with the stuff I use.”
Anycdj,
I remember “Revere Ike”, if I recall after all these years in LA in 1966. I had a part time job working on the night shift at the LB Sears store. All the full time maintenance personnel were minorities and they just loved his radio program. This, even though I suspect we were making minimum wages.
I’m not sure I buy all this. Do you have some sources? I certainly believe there are plenty of people (and groups of people) who measure success by wealth but I’m suspicious about your claim of that being religious doctrine. I grew up methodist and never in my life heard anything that wealth is a proper measure of success in life. In fact just the opposite was taught.
In any case, as I said there are plenty of folks who individually and as a group certainly seem to behave as if they see things that way. When my wife and I were engaged, there was a shower thrown by some friends of her parents. Her parents move among a number of people who have money (doctors and such mostly, not the truly wealthy). It wasn’t until later I realized these people aren’t independently wealthy, but that was the most wealth I had ever experienced in my life at that point. I didn’t grow up poor (we always had food with maybe a couple exceptions where things were very thin; had clothes and the things one needs to survive) but my idea of rich at the time closely matched the houses/cars/clothes these people had.
Anyway, it seemed every one they (her parents) knew was a doctor or had a kid who was going to be a doctor. It all just seemed so pretentious to me. In retrospect most of these kids probably aren’t even doctors now… So, we were standing around at this shower and there were several couples and me and my (now) wife and her parents. And every one of those couple were going around the circle talking about how their bill or susie was starting college at so-and-so place and was planning on medical school (or in the case of the girls planning on marrying a med student/doctor). So when it got to my inlaws, they talked about how my wife was a paramedic and had plans of going to medical school after college. At that time it was something she was considering.
When they all looked at me and asked what I had planned, I blurted out that I was a garbage man. I just smiled and said “I’m a garbage man” and closed my mouth and smiled like I was expecting all the discussion that follows about how great it is to be X (where “X” usually = being a doctor in this crowd). My wife immediately hit me and laughed, but there was a moment before she did that in which everyone was just literally staring. They had no idea what to say. I’m not sure now if it was because they immediately saw the insult or if it was because they just couldn’t comprehend the idea of being a regular guy with a regular job.
In retrospect, it was a jerky thing to do. These people had invited us into their lives and offered us good wishes and gifts which would help to give us a good start in life. I do regret it. I wonder though if these people truly measure themselves (and their kids and such) by how much money they make or how prestigious of a career they have?
One other quick story about rich people:
My sister-in-law dated a guy in high-school who’s parents were very wealthy. His mom didn’t work but his dad made a ton of money over the years, something havnig to do with places for retarded people. The mom came from money but his dad came from a background probably more like mine. As I understand it, probably a lot of his drive to succeed came from giving her a life up to the standard that she was used to. This guy was very wealthy at the point that I met him (and had worked his ass off to earn it), he easily had more wealth than any of the other people I met through my wife’s parents/family.
So the first time I met my SIL’s boyfriend’s parents… We pull up to this HUGE house. It was on a lake in a very pricey area. I mean, obvious wealth. So we go in, and his parents are sitting there. She has a glass of wine. And he was holding a styrofoam cup. We tour around the house (it was newly built so they were still in the “show” stage) before going out to dinner. Before we leave, the dad goes to re-fill his styrofoam cup with, of all things, Jim Beam. I mean, here is this guy who makes tons of money in a multi-million dollar house, drinking 5 dollar whiskey.
We had a nice time at dinner. This local place where they served crab legs and plenty of beer. As we were leaving I was going to pay for me and my wife (we were actually still dating at the time). He told me he would get it and I responded that I could pay my own way. He said “I know you can” and still insisted he would take care of it. There was this moment I felt like he really understood me like we were similar in a way. This was not something I expected from a “rich guy”. Looking back, I think that guy was more down to earth than most anyone I have known before or since. His son was a good guy, but there is no way he will be able (in my opinion of course, I could be wrong) to build the same kind of character starting off with so much.
We went back to the big house and played pool all night. Me having a few more beers and him drinking his 5 dollar whiskey. The dad and the guy who owned the restaurant proceeded to give me and the son a very expensive lesson about betting on pool. I was probably 19-20 at the time and sure as hell didn’t have the money to be down a hundred bucks. We played the last game double or nothing and they pretty much just threw the game. Probably one of the 2-3 most decent people I have ever met.
If just one regular participant on this blog were to imply or suggest he came from blue blood, I’d be the first to call BS. Blue bloods don’t talk, shuck or jive the stuff we do here. There is no reason or need for the truly wealthy to hang on a housing blog. And no….. a couple million isn’t wealthy.
RE: a couple million isn’t wealthy.
From all the scuttlebutt I’m hearing from my mid-50 age social circles, I’m beginning to think real wealth is not being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer @ 48.
Man, I can’t believe the evolving large number of severe illness out there.
Related to this idea of wealth = self worth is the “Protestant work ethic,” the idea of work being in and of itself a worthy end. I knew many people growing up and many more as an adult who take some kind of perverse satisfaction in how hard they work. The “work martyr” who devotes their entire being to the job. Of course these people are the WORST kind of co-workers to have.
Growing up with parents who ran their own small business got this work ethic thing driven home hard and long. Of course if you are working for yourself the harder you work, the more you gain, but if you just have a typical job working for the man, not so much.
I’ve largely come to completely abandon this Protestant Work Ethic nonsense. There is nothing intrinsically “worthy” about hard work. Work is only meaningful if it is being done to further your reaching a goal of some kind - be it financial security, saving x amount for a certain purchase, learning a new skill, etc. Work for the sake of work is stupid and pointless.
Digging a hole and filling it back in would be hard work, but it would be pointless labor and would not make the worker more noble than someone who lounged around and read a book while the “hard worker” threw dirt around.
I’m Episcopal, I’m afraid that I can’t agree with your assertion that being wealthy is how you know you are in God’s favor. I agree that old line religions like mine do have a large percentage of the older, well established families who have probably been in the country since colonial times (mine have been here since 1632). However, the overwelming majority of parishioners in the churches I’ve attended are by no means rich. Most are middle class with a good smattering of upper class types. I’ve only known 4-5 truly wealthy people. As to the assertion that wealth = God’s favor, I have to wave the flag. Perhaps you are describing the concept of “good stewardship” - the idea that God has given you what you have and that you must make the best use of it because to do otherwise would be a slight to Him. Good management of whatever resources you are blessed with hardly qualifies as a sign of heavenly favoritism IMHO.
I didn’t say I believed this stuff, only that these are common beliefs in my neighborhood (where nearly EVERYONE is Episcopalian, Methodist, or Presbyterian). I’ve listened to their ministers along with them, and I find it all astounding. But, if one is raised to think one has to have all these trappings to prove ones success in life, one is pretty much trapped by them. Enlightened self-interest is a well-known philosophy, but regarded with horror in orthodox sects (Roman Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, etc.).
The priest at an Episcopal church in South Tampa was showing me his church’s statue of the Virgin Mary. It was beautiful, but I didn’t quite know what to say, since I’m not interested in statues, religious or otherwise. It was carved from wood, and looked about four hundred years old (probably not). I said, “Well, at least it isn’t plater of Paris” (a joke), and he replied: “That’s one thing about the Roman Church: They have no ecclesiastical taste.”
That told me more than I wanted to know about his denomination. The statue, of course, had originally come from a Roman Catholic church, as had every building and old possession of the Church of England, his parent denomination.
I must venture to say that it doesn’t so much sound as if your neighbors are devoted to their religious doctrines so much as to the god of material wealth (which realistically is a fast growing religion unto itself-shame on us). These people are everywhere and they are equally obnoxious regardless of their professed religions.
The split between the RC and Henry was incredibly bitter and bloodsoaked. Yet, it happened and that’s that. My family has been Anglican (and now Episcopal) since inception, yet we don’t have any ill feelings towards Catholics. It would be silly. We do joke that we have the best of all worlds in our sect - we don’t have the guilt of the Catholics or the restrictions of the Baptists!
It sounds as if the priest was making a joke. It certainly sounds like it… Perhaps you could give him the benefit of the doubt?
http://truth-makes-freedom.blogspot.com/
good blog about emotional abuse and manipulation in the church, esp. the prosperity cult
She sounds like a very angry person. Hopefully her blog is effective at relieving some of that anger, writing really is therapy. I’m sorry that some people have this kind of experience with religion. If I did, I’d probably be rethinking my faith as well. Happily I haven’t… Thank God.
i agree nycboy it is the security factor for me as well growing up we did not have much (single mom 2 kids) and i have worked since i was a young wipper snapper as well as my very successful sister who is extremely financially responsible
( i learned from her and her husband)
to owe no one and dependent on no one and be ok in event of job loss or other calamity helps me sleep at night
that and a nice warm body next to me helps too
“that and a nice warm body next to me helps too”
Yeah! Pets are great.
Same deal for me. Grew up “middle class” in the midwest. We would not have been middle class had it not been for wealthy (subsidizing) grandparents. Money is a security blanket for me and an “f-u” device to anyone who tries to control me. Perhaps that is why I hoard it as much as possible.
NYCityBoy-
You’re so right, its the security. Add, the ability to help others who fall on hard times, by no fault of their own. $ is just a tool.
IMHO, the security comes from having some control over what you think life will throw at you!
Speaking as a control freak!
“The Misery of the Fallout”.
One of my fave topics. I’m already seeing and experiencing, to some degree, the misery of the fallout. Because misery, to me, is seeing a formerly quiet, fairly open area turn into absolute, utter crap. I’m watching two formerly nice little neighborhoods turn into slums, complete with toddlers wandering around in the street with no underpants. All of a sudden, the local population seems to contain a larger percentage of tattoed people. Rotting, crapbox gulag architecture has taken over the landscape, where there used to be green space.
Relocations from Tampa and St. Pete, because of public housing residents whose apartments were plowed under or re-developed. Roving gangs and rising crime. I’m not exaggerating this. One of the ladies at a local thrift store told me about two girls who were raped on the shore of a small pond just up the street from the store. Another lady who works in the service industry locally was mugged a few days ago in broad daylight in the Wal Mart parking lot by a member of a gang that stakes out supermarket and mall parking lots. Even if I wanted to buy a house right now, I wouldn’t because of the instability and I want to know how this is all going to shake out.
As a buddy of mine says, quoting a line from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: “It’s all gonna end in tears”.
I really believe that most of Florida from Orlando down will be 3rd world before this is all over. As it is now my wife and I will not go out in mid or south Pinellas after sunset. We also stopped shopping at risky locations.
I too will most likely not buy either.
By the way, on another board I’ve warned people wondering about moving to Florida that they are not prepared for the audacity of criminals. They simply have no clue; like the Easter shootout last year. There were some 50 cops already there and they STILL shot at each other.
There are no safe areas and there are no safe times. Most midwesterners don’t understand this and the yanks think they can handle it with a “tough” attitude. Think again…
Muggy (or any other Pinellas residents),
How is central Clearwater holding up? I used to live off of Keene Road about a mile south of Gulf to Bay Blvd, not too far from Clearwater H.S.
I’m curious to see how the old neighborhood is holding up.
Thanks.
Oh YEAH? Bring ‘em on!
Tattoos,
They’re not just for whores anymore, you know…
I once made a remark on another blog about how Disneyland seems to be overrun with the the tattoo and cammie crowd on weekends. Boy, did I ever get an earful because of that. I was instructed that people with obscene tattoos and who drop f-bombs left and right are perfectly decent people.
That’ll teach you to go out with other blogs. You blog around, you’ll get germs, just like your mom used to say.
In Colorado,
Ya, Right!
I was in the Marine Corps, I refused to get tattoos. I may wrong, however, I personally believe that its unbecoming to mark your body!
4 years, US Army, no tattoos but very tempted to get the obligatory FTA ink.
Exeter, what is “FTA ink”?
f%ck the army tattoo.
“F***K the Army” FTA, or “Frankfurt Terminal Airlines” since “FTA” was proscribed in Army Europe in the late 70’s - early 80’s.
“FTA” = F**k the Army
Hi Palmetto,
What about the West Tampa slums they leveled in anticipation of getting the summer Olympics (what delulsional thinking)? Those displaced moved into other areas, dragging them down to their own level. With the zero-down pseudo purchases hawked by realtors, the ultimate white trash was suddenly able to move into nicer areas, but when they default on their loans, the original residents are stuck with the fall-out. I suspect–though I have no supporting evidence to cite–that those destroying houses before vacating them fall heavily into the white trash category.
McCain’s Housing Restraint
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/mccains_policies_of_accountabi.html
Thanks for the unbiased article from George Will. Most politicians are crooks. The thing that bothers me are people that focus on just one issue.
You seem to think spending 10 billion dollars a month on guns instead of butter is not relevant to the economy, not to mention the human suffering.
“Clinton predictably advocates a policy that has a record, running from Roman times to the present, that is unblemished by success. It is the policy of price controls:”
That was my favorite line in the article.
Many people hate George Will but he does get it right sometimes. Even his criticism of McCain seems pretty relevant.
Yet another Nixonian element of Clinton’s personna. Tricky Dick (with Congress’s help, of course) instituted price controls in the 70s.
Is it any wonder Clinton favors bailouts? Haven’t she (and her husband) been bailed out repeatedly by rich benefactors?
Actually, what surprises me is that GW (whom I despise) to his credit has taken a relatively hard line on bailouts. That guy has been bailed out of more financial morasses than anyone I’ve ever heard of.
So, isn’t it the nature of politicians, to be predisposed towards the bailout idea, just by the very nature of the “work” that they do?
Deflation favors the loan-makers not the debtors.
Plus, you get to pick up the assets for dirt-cheap at the bottom.
It’s self-interest not philosophy.
God knows, since GW has gotten bailed out so many times,
he sure wouldn’t want anyone else to have his advantages.
.
Bailed out, apologized for and God knows how many businesses he’s bankrupted and mismanaged. (Aside from the US economy that is)
I’ve been reading Greenspans book. It’s interesting the praise he places on Clinton for paying down the federal deficit. Although anything he does say needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
I understand older people think Republicans are conservative, but if you have my perspective - i’m in my 30s - and you look at the debt build up during each presidency, they seem anything but conservative. I’m conservative with my finances - no debt, spend little.
They like big foreign adventures, spending money are very expensive toys, and funding it all with debt.
“I understand older people think Republicans are conservative, but if you have my perspective - i’m in my 30s - and you look at the debt build up during each presidency, they seem anything but conservative.”
Republicans are presumed to be the fiscal conservatives, and thus have a license to spend.
They are also presumed to be the warrior class, and thus have a license to end wars.
You have that wrong, once again, PB. I have learned from this blog that only Republicans start, and fight, wars. So, being an avid history buff I dug back through the history books and found out that they were right.
World War I: Woodrow Wilson
World War II: Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Korea: Harry Truman
Vietnam: John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson
Those men were all good Republicans. The facts so often get in the way of zealotry. Iraq is a disgusting mess. I agree with that. But staying grounded in reality allows for much better discussions.
I said nothing about who starts wars. Thanks for the straw man characterization of my position (an easy mistake to make for those without a college degree…).
PB, I wasn’t pointing this at you. I was pointing it at how many times on the HBB that the Republicans are the war mongers and the Dems are the party of peace. Sorry about the confusion. I bow to your many degrees.
“(an easy mistake to make for those without a college degree…)”
And he returns a crushing blow below the belt!
Stucco, I was being sarcastic. Damn. I need to put one of those /sarcasm tags like others.
John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson were democrats.
Kennedy defeated Nixon in the 1960 Presidential election.
Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater by a landslide in the 1964 election.
NYCityBoy — I have way too much education for my own good. I apologize for the slam. If you had not disclosed you don’t have a college degree yesterday, I would have assumed you have at least a Master’s Degree (no joking). I hope you have the opportunity to pick up a sheep’s skin at some point if that means something to you, but it would merely be a formality…
My story about not having a degree is a long and boring one so I won’t tell it. I was probably at college long enough to get one but I kept taking classes that I liked, not classes that would get me a degree. I do have a tech school degree.
“And if you believe this, I have some swamp land in Florida I would like to sell you.”
Bubba, all of the men on that list were Democrats. My sarcastic point was that it is hard to call the Democratic Party the party of peace, as many people do.
One of my favorite stories (told to me by a friend who also has too much education) is that of the rabbi’s assistant.
Abridged version:
- The rabbi lets his assistant go because the assistant is illiterate.
- Rabbi’s assistant starts a successful business and becomes wealthy.
- A banker offers the (former) rabbi’s assistant a loan to expand his business.
- The rabbi’s assistant refuses the loan because he cannot read the paperwork (this story is obviously set before the subprime lending era).
- The banker says: “You are a great success in business and life; just think of what you could have done if you had a proper education.”
- Response: “I would still be the rabbi’s assistant.”
‘If you had not disclosed you don’t have a college degree yesterday, I would have assumed you have at least a Master’s Degree (no joking). I hope you have the opportunity to pick up a sheep’s skin at some point if that means something to you, but it would merely be a formality…’
I don’t think NYCityboy should worry his pretty little head about getting sheepskins, as his brain seems to be working just fine and his observations are astute and all that other good brain stuff. I know quite a few complete and glorious idjits with master’s degrees, and quite a few very intelligent and canny people who either didn’t go or didn’t finish college. Now, if NYCity wants to learn for the joy of it, then he may as well get a marker for the time, sure. Then he can have one of them cute little flat square hat thingies.
“Sorry about the confusion.”
Don’t worry about it — I have on my stupid hat today.
I am sorry to make this comment, however, the seeds of the Vietnam war began in the IKE administration with the assistance of our CIA/State Department under the Dulles brothers.
If I understand my history correctly, and it was,it was a long time ago, discussed extensively in the 1960’s during the Fulbright Hearings.
If I recall correctly, the US became involved in VN after the French defeat in 1954.
Lost, I’m pretty sure it was Truman that began the involvement in Vietnam on behalf of the French when the communist boogeyman was wheeled out to scare the public, post WW2.
exeter,
You may be correct, in that the French refused to give up Indo-China after WW2, and the US’s involvement may have been support of the French upto their defeat in 1954, however, other than spook involvement, I do not believe the US became actively iinvolved until after 1954, when the French left.
BTW, after the end of WW2, there was suppose to be an election in Vietnam, however first the French and then the US reneged on the election. End result, Vietnam War.
Just what I remembe!
Hey NYCityBoy, send me a bottle of that Jack D. stuff you keep talking about and I’ll send you my degree.
Only stuff you can get out here has been opened by the Liquor Commission, diluted, then resealed. At least it tastes like that.
I think my degree might be worth a bottle of the good stuff, not sure, but I could throw a second one or an honorary one or an internet one or one from the illegals’ printshop down by the park if need be…
Bottom line on the two parties, IMO:
Demorats= Spend & Tax
Repukes = Spend & Deficit Spend
Same party, different spins and flavors. Both want to bail out FB’s.
I know people are speaking in simple generalizations here, but i hope that people don’t get so cynical that they are unwilling to cast a vote for a candidate simply because of the label next to his/her name.
There are still some true “conservative” republicans out there, and they’re fighting to regain control of the party, at least that’s what I see here in the Austin area.
I’m as cynical and feel as disenfranchised as most here (I’m a small “l” libertarian/independent), but as frustrated as we get with the two parties, I hate seeing people say things like “I agree with a lot of what Ron Paul has to say, but I’ll never vote for an (R)”. Throwing the baby out with the bath water and all that…
(please note that I bring up RP simply because a coworker of mine uttered those exact words a while back. Not trying to make any statement about specific politicians or candidates)
“There are still some true “conservative” republicans out there, and they’re fighting to regain control of the party, at least that’s what I see here in the Austin area.”
If they attend church regularly they are unfit for representative office.
If they attend church regularly they are unfit for representative office.
I was speaking of fiscal conservatives, rather than implying any religions beliefs. However, I’m not sure I agree with your statement. I’m not a religious person, but I don’t see anything wrong with one who is religious holding public office. However, if their religion dictates their policy (rather than the best interest of the people they represent), I certainly take issue with that.
Does anyone notice the trend of the frightened righties furiously backpedaling from the GOP platform and reinventing themselves (hiding) as “libertarians”? Too funny…
I can’t say that I’ve noticed that, but I’ve not been looking either. I hope you’re not making an implication towards me with this comment….
As opposed to progressive marxists masquerading as centrist democrats. Boy, what a choice we have.
Just to play devil’s advocate, but I’ll bet most people on this board have a job and aren’t too worried about losing it (for now), so it’s easy for us to criticize the fed for lowering interest rates - it’s depreciating the value of the earnings our labor.
But, what if we lost our job, would we still criticize? One of the reasons for lowering the rates is to keep the economy humming.
It seems the fed, so far, has done a decent job of keeping people working. Even with the announced decline in job number over the last 3 months, most people are still working and producing for the economy. I look out the window and people are still walking over to Starbucks to buy $3.50 coffee drinks and Wholefoods to buy $15pound/pound cheese.
I think the bailout of Bear Stearns, and the war on savers (4% CDs when inflation is 7%?), and the push to put more Americans in debt with the mortgage deduction are all awful policies. But it seems if you don’t have a job your perspective may be different.
Although for all the people that live in West Va, Michigan and Ohio that are unemployed, I got a solution for ya - move. If your a lion and all the gazelle are on the other side of the lake, you need to go pick up your ass and go to the other side of the lake.
arlington
some cannot move as any money they do have is tied up their homes and they will not just give it away you know
And if you are the gazelle, get some swimming lessons.
If they’re unemployed, they probably don’t have enough money to drive across town, let alone move.
Your faith in the omnipotentence of the Federal Reserve may be misplaced. They are not as in control of events as they would have us believe - they are reacting and praying, and hoping, and praying…
Preying…
“Preying…”
Very good grasshopper — I’m pleased with your progress!
Why the mixing of correlation and causation? Do you really believe a quasi-government organization with a monopoly over the money supply helps our economy? We’re doing decently in spite of the Federal Reserve, not because of it.
Yeah, sure, in the short run the Fed lowering rates will keep unemployment lower than it would be otherwise. But in the long term? It will be higher thanks to malinvestment in the economy and the inevitable adjustments that occur (like the ones taking place right now…)
I work in an industry that will suffer from the decline of disposable income. However, I have 5+ years of living expenses in the bank to cover a severe downturn. As of August this year, I have no job lined up and it could take months to find another project. The only thing I sweat is how to fill the time off without spending too much cash on fun.
And yes, I will still criticize the over-leveraged hummer-driving douches even if I go for a long stretch without work.
Toronto housing sales suffer big drop in March
Bbbut… it’s different here? An “expert” on TV commenting on these numbers said that because Canada doesn’t have subprime mortgages, they won’t experience the same problems as the U.S. He added that he expects double-digit growth in prices for the next few years.
No mention of affordability problems or the rise of 40-yr and I/O mortgages in Canada.
(I posted this at the bottom of the bits bucket a couple of days ago, but it has remained the headline for CBC Toronto since then.)
“Bbbut… it’s different here?”
I agree. When we visited Toronto in August 2006 I kept thinking that thought over and over again. The city of Toronto bore no resemblance to that nice city I had visited in March 1995. I still like Toronto but the condo-mania is appalling.
Fighting off foreclosure
http://tracypress.com/content/view/14173/2242/
Chestene Dean, who moved from Minnesota to Tracy three years ago, called the state’s housing market a scam. She and her husband, Dennis, sold their stocks and borrowed from their retirement plan to buy a $600,000 home. Now they’re doing everything to keep the home, which now markets at about $390,000.
Borrowing against retirement to lose 210k in three years has got to hurt, but I don’t think they would have felt scammed if their home went up in vlaue 210k in three years. How do you help these types?
learn from their mistakes and do not lend them money
600k in minnesota? oh yaaaaaaaaaaaaaa good deal
Just moved from MN about 8 months ago, the prices were just starting to come down and the realtors were just starting to get frantic. I’ll bet it’s a lot worse now.
Everybody knows that Minnesotans aren’t very bright.
NYCityBoy,
ummm, if I remember correctly, you’re from Minnesota aren’t you?
Your point being?
OOOwww Yaa Sure You Betcha!
“Bertram L. Johnson, a 45-year-old father of three, said help is what he got. Johnson bought his home in Stockton in 1997 and has watched his monthly payments jump from $1,600 to $2,700 a month. He said he expects his monthly payments to spike again to as much as $4,000 by the end of the year.”
BULLSH*T. This is clearly a serial refinancer and plunderer of his house. Yet the dumba$$ reporters did not seem to think this was worthy of mention. He clearly took out hundreds of thousands of dollars. Where did it go? F-ck him and everybody that looks like him.
I don’t disagree this is a possibility, but lets not overlook the fact that his taxes and insurance likely went up as well, and if he’s escrowing them, his payments could go up considerably.
Given that, I highly doubt that a jump from $1600 to $4000 a month is solely the result of higher taxes due to a higher assessment.
We’ve got prop. 13 in Kalifornia. 1% annual increase max. if I’m not mistaken.
This guy’s a f*ucking moron.
Give EVERYBODY on the planet 10 million $ today.
Come back in 3 years. The ones who were broke before the windfall will be broke again.
You can’t fix stupid.
Mike
You’re not. My mom pays more for the gardner ($100/mo) than for property taxes.
“Borrowing against retirement to lose 210k in three years has got to hurt, but I don’t think they would have felt scammed if their home went up in value 210k in three years. How do you help these types? ”
How do you help them? - Lots and lots of birth control. No way you want offspring from that kind of gene pool.
You can’t help them any more than you could help me - if I decided to spend the rest of this year’s income on the Lotto. They took a chance (gambled) and lost. Funny all the shills that peddle retirement investing plans/funds always stress diversification. But, where’s the diversification of plowing all your dough into one single building?
OR Employees plowing all their retirement dough in
BEAR STERNS STOCK
“She and her husband, Dennis, sold their stocks and borrowed from their retirement plan to buy a $600,000 home.”
See what California sunshine can do?
Duck and Cover: It’s the New Survivalism
By ALEX WILLIAMS
April 6, 2008
“…It is not that of Barton M. Biggs, the former chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley. Yet in Mr. Biggs’s new book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom,” he says people should “assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.”…
Still, motivated by a belief that the credit crunch and a bursting housing bubble might spark widespread economic chaos — “the Greater Depression,” as he put it — Mr. Marcom began to take measures to prepare for the unknown over the last few years: buying old silver coins to use as currency; buying G.P.S. units, a satellite telephone and a hydroponic kit; and building a simple cabin in a remote West Texas desert.
“If all these planets line up and things do get really bad,” Mr. Marcom said, “those who have not prepared will be trapped in the city with thousands of other people needing food and propane and everything else.”…
Many of the new, nontraditional preparedness converts are “Peakniks,” Mr. Rawles said, referring to adherents of the “Peak Oil” theory.
…“I think of survivalists as being an extreme case of preparedness,” said Ms. Vontourne, 44, “people who stockpile guns and weapons, anticipating extreme aggression. Whereas what I’m doing, I think of as something responsible people do.
“I now think of storing extra food, water, medicine and gasoline in the same way I think of buying health insurance and putting money in my 401k,” she said. “It just makes sense.”
NY Times
http://tinyurl.com/5fpbv9
take off your tin foil hats survival preparedness has gone mainstream- it will be bgger than the green movement
Whatever businesses organize to cater to this segment of the lunatic fringe might be able to clean up rather well.
Procrastination that we are, I look forward to suburban types like the good professor, pleading in front of a news tv’s camera that something must be done about what’s happened…
You got the wrong professor, bud. I mainly post here because I enjoy questioning others’ unreasonable beliefs, such as that gold prices always go up.
GS, I’m a lurker for the most part, but a regular reader. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone ever say that “gold prices always go up.” I don’t know that I’ve seen any indication that anyone believes that (though I suppose you could argue that belief is embedded in the idea that gold is a permanent store of value).
From what I can see, most people holding/buying/advocating gold think the current conditions warrant it. I’ve not heard any statements anywhere near the “common wisdom” that housing always goes up - in the long term. Either it’s insurance against the sh*t really hitting the fan, or they don’t have faith in fiat currency and think that central banks will try to inflate their way out of the current mess.
I’m not sure how you see any of these beliefs as “unreasonable”?
Disclaimer: I do personally own some precious metals, but certainly don’t have anywhere near the conviction that aladinsane does.
Very few Americans have seen the ravages of hyper-inflation, and thus have no experience in how to best prepare for it’s arrival.
Their bad.
Best prepare for hyper-inflation? Wouldn’t the preparation be buying expensive assets…. like houses?
Black market saving Zimbabwean economy
devalued currency, ineffective government programs escalate illegal trade
Shashank Bengali, MCT
Issue date: 4/2/08
“…
With inflation estimated at 200,000 percent - easily the highest in the world - Zimbabwe’s currency is barely worth the paper it’s printed on. (The largest Zimbabwean note, 10 million dollars, can’t buy more than a couple of sodas.) Foreign currency runs this economy now, mainly the U.S. dollar and the South African rand, nearly all of it traded on the black market….”
http://www.drurymirror.com
http://tinyurl.com/638p2k
Somebody wants dollars.
“Wouldn’t the preparation be buying expensive assets…. like houses?”
Best argument yet in support of the ‘buy now or get priced out forever’ used home people sales pitch…
Imagine something along the lines of Argentina 2001-2002…
Their currency lost 2/3rds of it’s value in a matter of months, against other currencies.
Everything we buy that is imported, would suddenly be 3x as expensive.
Houses being priced in Dollars, gives you no advantage in hyper-inflationary times…
You would have a great advantage however, if your wealth is in the right strong currency.
One can buy houses for 1/3rd of their current valuation.
And i’m talking mild hyper-inflation, here.
See Zimbabwe currently, (Z$500,000 for one bullet) for an education on the worst case-scenario…
Don’t worry about it. After all we are more advanced now. We have great technology and haven’t had a real wide spread calamity since the Great Depression. Of course that is also ignoring the reoccurring themes and history that have happened to mankind since the beginning of man. There is a reason for the stories and parables such “The Ant and the Grasshopper”. Besides, “they’d” never let that happen to us. Would they?
“Their currency lost 2/3rds of it’s value in a matter of months, against other currencies.”
Are you suggesting that Argentina’s currency had world reserve currency status at the time, or that this is irrelevant?
I think the point here is US Banks were the ones who took the losses on the South American debt bubble. Thats why 28% rates apply to unsecured credit cards in America.
We the sheeple are the opes picking up that tab.
I don’t think it is a lunatic fringe, I believe it is more a zombie action.
“Zombies are exactly like us in all physical respects but have no conscious experiences: by definition there is ‘nothing it is like’ to be a zombie. Yet zombies behave like us, and some even spend a lot of time discussing consciousness. This disconcerting fantasy helps to make the problem of phenomenal consciousness vivid, especially as a problem for physicalism….”
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/zombies/
From the home page of Life After the Oil Crash, one of the best sites for daily doomer news updates:
“Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil.”
Life After the Oil Crash
Go to http://www.google.org and check out what they are doing to help prevent a peak oil nightmare. RE
Professor Bear, may I ask how you became the arbitrator of other person’s opinions?
“Comment by Professor Bear
2008-04-06 08:12:48
You got the wrong professor, bud. I mainly post here because I enjoy questioning others’ unreasonable beliefs, such as that gold prices always go up.”
While you may express your opinion, I suspect that your approach does not encourage a friendly exchange of disparate opinions, ie., you are not a god and we are not mortals to be played with!
I don’t claim to know much, but I do think I can pose a good question. That’s all I have to offer here. If you don’t like it, please ignore my posts from now on.
Anyone who scoffs at the possibility of societal collapse would do well to read two books:
1) Collapse by Jared Diamond.Collapse
2) The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter The Collapse of Complex Societies
Oh, and by the way, if you are planning to order #10 cans from canneries for Mountain House, Alpine Aire, etc, expect a 2-3 month wait.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Some posters here are getting a bit irrationally exuberant about their societal collapse scenario. Jared Diamond’s book is written over the course of geologic time. It is quite ludicrous to conjecture that the current market turmoil is likely to bring about a near-term societal collapse on the same scale as the cases he documents, which represent extreme outliers on the geologic time scale.
But don’t let me stop you from enjoying your paranoid fantasies if that floats your boat.
Also, The Plot to Seize the White House, by Jules Archer. http://tinyurl.com/52ljgy
And please tell me more on how the government blew up the World Trade Center.
The gov’t didn’t blow up the WTC (as you well know). That’s nertz. But I do find it interesting that the WTC was conceived and blue printed in 1946 during the monkey-sex-hot passion for one world government.
Yes, I believe that (probably unconventional) explosives were required to demolish the 47 massive steel columns at the core of both WTC 1 and 2 and to produce the molten steel that flowed like lava for some time after the buildings fell.
But don’t believe me, believe the hundreds of emergency workers who reported hearing explosions:
Twin Towers Demolished for Effect
Cui Bono?
April 29, 2007
“EMERYVILLE, California (Reuters) - A stretch of vital highway for San Francisco Bay-area commuters collapsed on Sunday after a gas tanker truck crashed and ignited flames that shot more than 200 feet high, officials said.
Flames on a lower ramp melted the upper deck of a highway on the Oakland/Emeryville side leading to the double-decker Bay Bridge that connects the heavily populated East Bay to San Francisco. As the steel structure weakened, a concrete slab fell onto the ramp below.” (end)
Was that a government plot, too? I don’t think so.
On February 26, 1993, a car bomb was exploded below Tower One of the World Trade Center. (end)
Another government plot? No. Of course not.
December 17, 2001
“Ressam told U.S. prosecutors he was planning to blow up the Los Angeles airport as part of a broader plot to wreak havoc in the United States during the millennium celebrations. He had picked it as a target because he had flown through Los Angeles on a return flight from Pakistan. “An airport is sensitive politically and economically,” the terrorist told a New York court last July.” (end)
What else do you need to know? Got pattern? I don’t understand the desperate mindset of conspiracy theorists driven to come up with complex theories to explain these events that are the result of clearly stated hostility towards the West? There’s a strong motive in the conspiracy theorists-that’s obvious-but it has nothing to do with forensics.
Story #1 shows that steel melts. No ideology required.
We’re doomed! Doomed, I tells ya! Head fer the hills! If yer already in the hills, build an ark.
lol
“And please tell me more on how the government blew up the World Trade Center.”
NYCityBoy, I wish your sarcasm could be dumped on Jesse Ventura, who is still beating the old fictitious drum about building 7. His comments are almost direct quotations from “Loose Change,” which he evidently watched and memorized, but didn’t bother questioning. I guess fake documentaries are the new bibles of our era.
If my memory serves me correctly bubbleviewer has expressed his belief, on this blog, that WTC7 was blown up from within. I may be mistaken but I don’t think so. I apologize if my memory is wrong.
Note how he says “old silver coins”. I’d still add a couple of cartons of cigarettes and a cases of good liquor to the list - the best currencies ever. Don’t bring the Kugers down to the corner black market!
Buying GPS and satellite phones? LOL! Who the hell is going to be maintaining the infrastructure that keeps those things working when society breaks down?
Guns, ammo, water purification items, toilet paper, survival foodstuffs, solar/wind power generators, seeds, etc. is what you should be buying. This one could be even worse than the Y2K meltdown.
BTW, some posters here early last year were expecting armageddon’s arrival by now. Use the unexpected extra time wisely.
Our greenhouse is almost completed, and it’s been quite the adventure…
A friend that lives/backpacks in the High Sierra in the summertime, and does construction in the wintertime to support his habit of the summertime, built it for us.
We only really talked about it’s size, and let him do his thing.
It turns out he’s an aspiring low-key Frank Lloyd Wright.
Next winter, he’ll build us a planetarium…
I wonder what he’ll do?
I’m not sure this what you’re addressing, Bill, but I really don’t understand the ire most people have here for those who choose to prepare for an unlikely, though possible, scenario.
By that I don’t mean the collapse of society, but it seems to me that it’d be prudent to have at least some supplies on hand to handle something like what happened in New Orleans w/ Katrina. Clearly it’s possible. It seems like a no-brainer to get some insurance and make sure you have some of the necessities on hand - extra water, food, batteries, etc. And yes, I would even argue that a gun is a good piece of insurance. Again, look at New Orleans. The police deserted. In the end, you can’t expect to rely on anyone else more than you can rely on yourself.
Please take this in the context of short-term disruption of order and normal services. Personally, I’m not looking to prepare for the downfall of society. But I do make a point to be able to survive on my own should a natural disaster of some sort occur. To me it just seems prudent, and it’s just another form of insurance I’ll hopefully never need to take advantage of.
(How much have I paid for auto “collision” insurance but never used in all the years I’ve been driving?)
The police deserted because they were as corrupt as their employers the N Orleans politicians.
You’re paying for collision? Lol. What do you drive–new to 2 yo cars, replace every two years?
Collision is giant rip-off insurance for losers who are living paycheck to paycheck and won’t have wheels if their car gets totaled.
I could buy a car tomorrow. With $100 bills.
Kirisdad - I would argue the reason for them deserting is irrelevant. It still left the people in a situation where they had to defend themselves (one could argue that’s always the situation, of course).
not a gator - Be careful of the assumptions you make. I drive a 10 year old car that was paid off months after I bought it - used, with 62k miles on it. I could buy a car tomorrow with $100 bills as well. You may disagree that carrying collision insurance makes sense (yes, at some point self-insuring is more prudent financially), but your assumptions about me are way off base.
J
The end timers of the extreme religious right made their impact I see.
exeter - what exactly is your point, and who is it directed at? I don’t see where religion (or politics) comes into play here?
Apparently you just have a thing for making assumptions and attacking people. Nice habit…
It’s a particularly safe holdout if the crooks need a GPS to find you out in the West Texas Desert
Rock - Chalk -Jayhawk- KU!
A great win but The craziest game I ever saw!!
I am a KU Grad and obviously a huge fan
Go Jayhawks! 1998 alum here in California.
Hoz_ I grew up with the missle crisi and all the cold war stuff so I am loathe to admit to an alarmist attitude. I just hated all the constant worry about the “bomb”. I also thought the adults were overreacting to it. What else is a kid to do when I had to refill the water bottle every Saturday for a couple of years.(400 gallons each week.) Yeah Dad was a former bomber pilot in WW II.
At any rate I admit to having planned the best route out of my area and laying in about 400 rounds of ammunition in the last year. Also a bunch of dry goods.
I guess I am becoming my dad in a way. The thought of having to shoot a neighbor is something I cannot imagine. Well maybe this one guy.
400 rounds is a good days trap or target shooting.
So have some fun with the rounds and keep your passport at hand.
Good luck shooting your way out of Orlando. I don’t think you could have done that even at the peak of the prosperity.
Dime,
That’s funny about the one neighbor.
Your story reminds me of the ‘Y2K’ crisis. I was talking to some guys at work. One of them asks me if I had stocked up on water, etc. Now mind you I thought the whole thing was way overblown. I did however think that we may lose a power grid or something in a third world country. Anyway my answer to his question was “f*ck no. I have an AR-10. If I need some milk I’ll go next door”.
JK of course.
Mike
Hey, don’t knock the Y2K crisis.
My company made tons of money evaluating Y2K effects on process control and automation systems. 99.999% of it was chasing butterflies and we knew it at the time but the PTB at the top of the chains-of-command decreed “Be Prepared”, so we diligently investigated, wrote reams of reports, and sent huge bills.
Good stimulus package for us!
More evidence of denial and ignorance (as if we need more proof…)
I was on a flight Friday night. When a women sat next to me I said hello and asked if she was heading home. She said she was going to visit one of her children. Then she went on to say she was from New Hampshire. We said a few more pleasantries and then she added that now that her kids have moved out she and her husband would like to downsize, but the housing market is making it difficult. She said that they bought this huge estate several years ago after selling a house in Conn. She said they figured it would be worth a lot more in just a few years… I did the old, “yeah, well, hang in there.”
The rest of the flight she read People Magazine, cover to cover. I on the other hand finished reading Fred Sweds’ classic about Wall Street in the 1920–”Where are the customers yachts?” All I could think was, at least the bankers spent some time thinking about how to improve their situation (I’m not defending them–just noting that sheeple are too lazy to even figure out that they’re dealing with lions). Anyone who uses hope as a strategy and spends their time idling through life deserves what they get.
I can tell you that the Kool-aid is still flowing up here in New Hampshire. Prices are in the stratosphere and holding. No sales but high prices (something like 6-10 X median income). I see a few “bank owned” and “short sales” listed in the area so I know there is stress. I have spoken to a couple of Realtors and they just do not get it. It is surreal how they can stare at the same set of facts and come to completely different conclusions.
My wife and I were talking about this yesterday. When we first came up here we considered the Wolfesboro area so I spent quite a bit of time researching the RE market for that area. I went a looked at it again yesterday and the difference over 6 months is dramatic. LOTS of inventory of very nice properties are now on the market and at lower pricing.
My conclusion is that the Conway area was positively impacted by great snowfall for the ski areas this winter coupled with the start of the recession. I am positing that many folks in the Boston and greater Mass area decided to forgo the big vacation and instead made cheaper short trips up to this area. I think it forestalled the pain for this area. I suspect not for long though. I fully expect that this part of the country will go down hard, perhaps as soon as this summer as inventory mounts. Just my little prognostication.
Marketing is fundamental.
Don’t underestimate what a great job the NAR has done in educating its consumers (RE always goes up, buy now or be priced out forever, they ain’t making any more land, etc.)
I have a coworker, she’s 27. College-educated, accountant. She and her husband (30) already own three properties. Their house (starter material), an apartment building in their hometown of about 400, and a “vacation property” that’s on a river in northern Wisconsin.
Now the bad news: the apartment building is negative cash-flow, and the vacation property they bought last summer (on a river, two miles from the nearest boat landing) is in an area which has already seen 18% price depreciation.
Oh, and what are she and the hubby doing on weekends? They’re looking at houses, of course. They just had a baby in September and they’re ready to “move up”…
Augur,
pls keep posting on the NH area. Inventory may be building there, but I’m guessing prop. taxes are about to take another leap upward.
How is the rental situation…any movement there?
Hey Spike, sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner.
Lots of rentals now. I sense prices have come down a bit. Of course now that ski season is winding down I suspect some of the inventory is seasonally driven but I am hearing some anecdotal reports of slow business, etc.
The town of Conway votes on a budget this Tuesday. I gave some particulars the other day but basically it’ll jack the taxes significantly if it passes. I’ll do a post after the vote.
That’s a great book.
“If you want to make money, really big money, do what nobody else is doing.” `~J. Paul Getty
He certainly wasn’t talking about buying
gold under current market conditions. (For evidence, look at the broken crest of the volume tsunami on the bottom chart.)
“‘Twas merely a flesh wound.”
“‘…do what nobody else is doing.’”
Such as accumulating and saving dollars.
Det. Thorn: It’s people. Soylent Green is made out of people. They’re making our food out of people. Next thing they’ll be breeding us like cattle for food. You’ve gotta tell them. You’ve gotta tell them!
Goodbye Chuck~ r.i.p.
Good flick. I just saw that for the first time a couple of months ago.
I think I like his performance best in Planet of the Apes. (please act as if PotA’s #2,3, & 4 et al, never existed)
Rod Serling’s genius for words and irony combined with his athleticism, all in one package.
Are you serious? Did they pry his gun out of his cold, dead hands?
I’m just wondering.
The Recession is home sellers fault!
Hear me out. In the last week I’ve seen stories in print and on the air about how sellers are being unrealistic with the value of the homes they are trying to sell. They haven’t gotten the memo that it’s not 2005.
Now we all know that the housing bust is the prime cause of the current recession (yes, when we lose 250,000 jobs, it’s a recession).
You hear a lot of pundits talk about getting the housing market back and home sales going up to get the economy moving. Well that won’t happen until the sellers lower their prices to affordable levels.
So here’s the new meme.
When you talk to people about the economy outside of the blog. Just repeat that it’s those damn, unreasonable sellers that are screwing things up.
I mean if the NAR can convince people that “real estate always goes up”, why can’t we make this stick?
DEAN CALBREATH
Land bank proposal deserves more funds
April 6, 2008
After two years of declining home prices and rising foreclosures, Capitol Hill is finally churning out proposals that are – nominally at least – aimed at dealing with the Great American Mortgage Crisis.
But if a bill that came out of the Senate last week is any indication, it seems that our friends in Washington are much more interested in helping out the businesses that created the mess than distressed homeowners who are frantically trying to pay their bills before their homes get taken away from them.
The biggest item on the ticket provides $6 billion in tax relief for businesses that are losing money from the downturn. That’s a little more than ironic, since some of the biggest corporate losses right now are at Wall Street investment banks that played such an active role in creating the crisis.
The tax breaks for the HBs are a hoot. Do the pols seriously want to enable them to dump even more housing units onto this market? Yeah, more supply - that’ll support prices.
Besides,one would think the stronger HBs would be quite pleased to see their weaker competition bite the dust instead of being kept alive to build even more.
‘“If you put them both together, they amount to $14 billion, which is a drop in the bucket compared to a problem that could run into the trillions of dollars,” he said.’
$14 bn to address a problem that might run into the $1000 bns? That pretty much explains why they scrapped the idea, doesn’t it? The situation is too big to bail by throwing tax dollars at it.
‘Since San Diego County was one of the first regions to lead the country into the mortgage crisis, we tend to think that the problem is bigger here than elsewhere. In the first two months of this year alone, roughly 3,700 notices of default were filed in San Diego County and 3,400 properties were foreclosed upon, according to RealtyTrac, a firm in Irvine that monitors property transactions.
But those figures – which have jumped nearly 200 percent in the past year – didn’t even land us in the top 25 markets in the country when ranked by foreclosure rates. In California alone, 15 regions ranked ahead of us, led by Stockton, Modesto, Merced and Riverside-San Bernadino. That suggests that they will likely be among the first ones to get to the trough for government aid.
Even though Bliesner was hoping that the feds might do more for us, he’s not surprised that they aren’t. “It’s very difficult for the federal government to address local needs,” he said.’
I for one see neither the financial means nor the rationale for the federal government to address San Diego’s foreclosure problem, particularly against the backdrop of many other communities across California and the rest of the U.S. with similar but larger problems.
However, I have an inkling there is a far more pragmatic way to address the situation which I have, thus far, not seen discussed much in the MSM: Tax the banks, home builders, flippers, hedge funds and any other alien financial entities which are holding on to local REO for the external damage costs imposed on the local economy which is posed by vacant homes with green algae-covered West Nile virus breeding ponds in the back yard. With high enough damage assessments, the big banks holding on to REO would have a real choice between putting affordable housing on the local market or pricing themselves in to unaffordable tax rates forever. And the municipalities would win one way or the other, either through collecting sufficient monies to cover the external damage costs of so many depreciating-value vacant properties, or through providing affordable housing to a desperately-needed local work force. No federal monies would need to be expended. Where is the down side?
Economic View
The Fed Gets a New Job Description
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
April 6, 2008
NY Times
http://tinyurl.com/3z653t
‘Formalizing the Fed’s transformation into a market stability regulator makes sense. The Fed has already begun to play this role. And by doing so, it is taking a significant step toward reducing the fundamental instability of our economy.’
I’ll say it again. Shiller is an establishment hack. He boo-hoos every drop in house prices and now he cheer leads for the bums that got us here.
I suspect he is gunning for a future position at the Fed.
It does not matter if Mr. Schiller is a hack. He has achieved the same level of status as Mssrs. Greenspan, Volker, Bernanke, Gross, Cramer, Fleckstein, Wolf, Mankiw et al. What he writes is going to be read by corporate officers.
The Federal Reserve does not have the ability nor the talent to comprehend the markets. The Federal Reserve has shown scant ability to understand current banking practices.
The Federal Reserve (Mr. T. Geithner) has said that JPM was the only bank with enough capital to afford the purchase of BSC. JPM is currently leveraged at 8:1. Were a 17bps swing in total hedge to occur, JPM is insolvent. In the last 9 months some bank hedges have swung by 250bps. I do not expect the swing to happen, but the banks risk/reward ratio is half ass.
Should Mr. Geithner’s pronouncements be taken at face value?
Mr. Geithner makes about $200K per year a lot less than what a firm trader makes in bonus. Mr. Geithner is currently sacrificing pay for power.
It is rarely wise to take any Federal Reserve pronouncements at face value. “We favor a strong dollar.” lol
Geithner before congress struck me as a frat boy BSing a prof.
I think he’s making some money on the side somehow (”lucky” trades). Dude like that can’t “live” on $200K/year.
“Mr. Geithner is currently sacrificing pay for power.”
That’s the basic deal in top posts at the Fed.
‘I think he’s making some money on the side somehow (”lucky” trades).’
Aren’t you confusing Mr. Geithner with Ms. HC?
“…but the banks risk/reward ratio is half ass.” Rather, 16 cheeked
I missed the logic, how did he go from this:
“The Fed failed to identify the twin bubbles of the last decade — in the stock market and in real estate — and we have to hope that the Fed and its global counterparts will do better in the future.”
To this:
“Formalizing the Fed’s transformation into a market stability regulator makes sense.”
Give the Fed more control? Mr. Magoo called the housing bubble ‘froth’ in 2005 and encouraged people to buy Adjustable Rate Mtgs.
‘Hey don’t worry everybody it’s just some froth; oh have you heard about the great deals you can get with ARMs?’
And Shiller wants to give the Fed more control??? un-freakin-believable
How about we encourage savings? How about we require money down for a mortgage? How about we pay-as-you go with the federal budget? How about i-banks have more equity and skin in the game?
“Give the Fed more control?”
This should work well to help the Fed spread its own special brand of economic religion and to silence debate from its critics. I am not optimistic that it will serve to stabilize markets, as the harder they work to smooth short-term fluctuations, the more of the natural swings in the trade cycle are shifted into amplifying the longer wave length components of the trade cycle (witness the increase in housing prices from 1987-2005 for some evidence on this).
It might stabilize the Hamptons housing market. Mission accomplished!
Dean Baker makes sense, again.
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=04&year=2008&base_name=has_anyone_at_the_new_york_tim#comments
Has Anyone at the New York Times Heard of the Housing Bubble?
They just quoted him on The McLaughlin Group. This feature of giving tax breaks to the builders is really getting criticized. How the heck are they going to manage to pass this disaster with the HB bailout as a component?
add something you can hack off in committee.
The irony of Baker and Krugman calling the bubble as early as 2003 is oh so satisfying. Contrast that with the fraudulent school of housing bubble denial occupied by none other than Kuldow and his cast of criminals Boylover, Lowry & Company.
Those who align themselves with the lying mantra; do so at your own risk. It’s your funeral.
If you don’t like [x,y,z] just go into business for yourself!
I’ve heard that over and over here in the comments on this blog. Great. Now, Insurance coverage?
“Sorry, until you’ve been off anti depressants for 10 years and out of therapy for 10 years you can’t get life insurance.”
“Spent 3 days in a mental hospital? Here are the forms for Medicaide. Maybe in a few years you’ll qualify for … something.”
“Anti depressants? No we won’t insure you. Or your family.”
That’s true, firefox. And you’re not the only one who’s unwillint to do a high-wire act without a safety net.
Just don’t blame or envy the risk-takers who become fabulously successful (and wealthy).
Ethics and morality don’t matter? Making money means you’re a good person above reproach?
“Cancer? Oh, too bad.” (slam)
Here is the first used home sale people ad that I have seen in the Sunday San Diego Union Tribune sdhomes buying guide that is aimed at talking owners out of their irrational expectations for future market conditions, rather than trying to talk nonexistent buyers into paying unaffordable prices. Maybe at least some of the used home sales people are finally beginning to get the picture. But then maybe not, given the disconnect between the content of this stealth sales pitch and underlying market reality.
My comments are added in italics.
Renting instead of selling: can you turn a bigger profit?
By Greg Flaherty
Broker/Owner, RE/MAX Coastal Prperties,
Penny Realty Inc.
In just a couple of months, thousands of San Diego families will be facing an important decision. The end of the school year is traditionally the time when “For Sale” signs pop up in neighborhoods. They popped up in my neighborhood three years ago and never went away. The need to relocate could be due to a promotion, a change in employment, or simply because the family has outgrown their current home. Most folks I know who have moved away did so because they either lost their job or else gave up on ever being able to afford to buy a home here. The ones I know who did not move away either bought long before the bubble peak or else are still renting. Whatever the reason, in today’s real estate market, it could make sense to become a landlord.
In some neighborhoods, homeowners are turning to renting their home, instead of selling it. The immediate upside is that your home doesn’t go on the market with thousands of others, and in many cases, you’ll probably be able to rent much quicker than you can sell. It’s a simple case of dollars and cents. The downside is the market has not yet bottomed out, and you could keep wracking up home equity losses for years. Your renters don’t have to show up at the table with a big down payment, but rather, a security deposit and the first month’s rent.
For homeowners, the advantages of renting versus selling are many. Hopefully the rent you change will cover the mortgage, taxes and insurance on the house. Get real — this only applies to those who bought before bubble prices went parabolic. And, as a landlord, there are quite a few tax deductions to consider. You should always talk to your tax advisor (my TurboTax does not talk back!), but owning rental property can have great tax benefits (I suggest you buy 17 rental properties to take advantage of these). The tax code is full of deductions for landlords. Landlords can deduct interest and the cost of repairs on the property, to name two (I sure hope my landlady is reading this, as I can think of a dozen or so potential deductions for her to enjoy).
Property appreciation is another plus to consider. Would a twenty percent home equity loss in San Diego since this time last year be considered a plus, as in positive depreciation, or a minus, as in negative appreciation? The longer you hang on to a house, the more equity you gain cause real estate always goes up, in the long run. Property values have been on an upward trend for the last several decades. How has that trend held up since this time last year? And, although gains have slowed recently (Cough, gag, vomit…), according to the National Association of Realtors, on average, the value of a a home nearly doubles every 10 years. As the U.S. population continues to increase, experts believe that the long-term trend is that prices will continue to increase. How come prices are not increasing, if the experts say they will? After all, those families have to live somewhere. I suggest those families live in rentals, rather than throwing their money away on owning unaffordably-priced homes.
When considering their options, what seems to concern most homeowners is the time they may have to invest if they become landlords. Why aren’t they concerned about losing money at a 20 pct annual rate? Anyone who has ever been a renter knows that if it’s broken, the first person you call is the landlord. If that landlord is you, you’ll have to answer and find a way to fix the problem. Being in charge can take a lot of time.
…
Being a landlord is not right for everyone. You may prefer to partner with a realtor to sell your house. But, renting your property can be a viable option in today’s real estate marketplace. And, if it means that you’ll have a larger profit to show in the long run, it could be your best choice. What if prices keep dropping like a rock for a while? Wouldn’t it be better to sell sooner than ride a falling knife to the bottom?
Lol.
A re-post from late last night (it’s in your inbox Ben):
http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o72/muggyFL/CWB.jpg
This is a relatively new paper on the “Carry Trade” (I’ll need to refresh and learn up on options). It is interesting.
caution 30 pg pdf.
Carry Trades and Currency Crashes
Markus K. Brunnermeiery
Princeton University, NBER and CEPR
Stefan Nagelz
Stanford University and NBER
Lasse H. Pedersenx
New York University, NBER and CEPR
March 2008
abstract:
This paper documents that carry traders are subject to crash risk, i.e. exchange rate movements between high interest rate and low interest rate currencies are negatively skewed. We argue that this negative skewness is due to sudden unwinding of carry trades, which tend to occur in periods in which investor risk appetite and funding liquidity decrease. Carry-trade losses reduce future crash risk, but increase the price of crash risk. We also document excess co-movement among currencies with similar interest rate. Our ndings are consistent with a model in which carry traders are subject to funding liquidity constraints.”
from paper:
“…Our finding is consistent with the saying among traders that “exchange rates go up by the stairs and down in the elevator”.We note that this saying must be understood conditionally: currencies do not have unconditional skewness that is, the skewness of a randomly chosen currency pair is zero because country As positive skewness is country Bs negative skewness. Hence, our finding is that the trader saying holds for investment currencies, while the reverse holds for funding currencies….”
http://tinyurl.com/6abfh5
Princeton edu (again caution 30 pg pdf.)
It has been years since I heard anyone mention the stairway elevator analogy. I suggest reading the conclusion on pg 24 and trade accordingly.
Most interesting in light of the fact that the dollar is a (relatively) low-interest rate currency at the moment. What does this article suggest about the value of Uncle Buck in the aftermath of the dollar carry trade unwinding?
1.17:1.00 - (Euro:USD)
Carry Trade, oh wayward one
There’ll be pieces left when you are done
Lay your negative contango to rest
Don’t you try no more
Once I rose above the noise and confusion
Just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion
Interest rates were soaring ever higher
But they flew too high (Icarus & Daedalus?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgGGqQWFgFI
Advice on loans getting a boost
Mortgage failures are up dramatically
April 6, 2008
…
Loan failures have risen dramatically in many communities across the country where risky, subprime loans with low introductory interest rates were used during the recent housing boom. In San Diego County, February marked the 35th consecutive month of year-over-year increases for home foreclosures and notices of default, the start of the foreclosure process.
“More than a half-million Californians have subprime loans that will jump to higher rates over the next two years and many are in danger of foreclosure,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a prepared statement. “But there are options – your lender may be willing to work with you and counseling is available. The key is: Don’t be afraid to ask for help.”
Fleet Enema is on the receiving end of the very same.
a cool interactive graph suitable for the fridge:
In the Shadow of Foreclosures
Ne York Times
April 6, 2008
“…But paying the loans as housing prices fall is all too hard, and many economists believe that foreclosures will continue to rise.
“The collapse will affect other markets, like New York, Boston and D.C.,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “Suburban areas near those cities are already seeing prices plunge.”
http://tinyurl.com/4guer5
Who knew the skyscrapers were so tall in Fort Myers-Cape Coral?
Greenspan endorses McCain, foresees U.S. recession: report
By Christopher Hinton
Last update: 1:32 p.m. EDT April 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has endorsed Republican Sen. John McCain for president, according to Reuters, which cited an interview in El Pais this Sunday. The Spanish newspaper also quoted Greenspan as saying that the U.S. economy has more than a 50% chance of going into recession, the news service said.
And so ends the HBB McCain short-sided love affair…
McCain & Abel
Mcain and Enabler
Is it some how McCain’s fault that AG is endorsing him? (Oh yeah — there was that dead guy joke…)
Absolut Morons. LOL! Good for a laugh. http://www.knbc.com/news/15803777/detail.html
If I may, as a new blogger, that I have noticed certain patterns of responses. Now I may be naive about human relations, however attacking individuals personally or their ideas/beliefs does not change them.
A typical game that I have noticed on this site is to attack someone and then back down under different reasons (I was being sarcastic, I was misunderstood, I misunderstood you, etc.) I am sorry to bring up this, however, IMHO this is the sign of a bully.
Not so. I attack everyone equally. No discrimination here.
Johannes Brahms, upon leaving a party in old Vienna:
“If there is anyone here whom I have not insulted, I beg his pardon.”
It is a big school yard. You don’t have to play here.
If your skin is that thin, you shouldn’t be here.
Ideas are a powerful thing and one’s attachment to them cut very deep into a person’s ego/perception of themselves and therefore inappropriate attacks will occur. I love the point counterpoint argument on this blog and I loathe the personal attacks as well, but deep cuts into ones ideas create a focus that sometimes yields breakthroughs in thinking. That which does not kill you makes you stronger. Hopefully people will keep an open mind and realize we all have ideas that are wrong; based upon faulty information or lack thereof. Strive for accuracy in your ideas rather then defend them at all costs. This is a problem I have with the Democrats and Republicans. Disclosure: I am a registered Independent since 1994.
McCain Lambastes Wall Street Over Housing Crisis
Republican Backs ‘Limited’ Relief From Washington
By LAURA MECKLER
April 7, 2008
PHOENIX — The likely Republican presidential nominee displayed a strong populist streak over the housing crisis this weekend, blasting what he called the “outrageous” and “unconscionable” compensation of Bear Stearns and Countrywide executives and their “co-conspirators.”
It is part of Sen. John McCain’s effort to show anger at the people behind the housing crisis and sympathy for those who are facing foreclosure, while remaining tentative on proposals that would commit the federal government to aggressive action to help them.
Which candidate is making honest comments about the activities of subprime lending kingpins?
“And could I add, I think it’s outrageous that someone who is the head of Bear Stearns cashes in millions and millions of dollars in stocks. And I think it’s unconscionable when the guy who apparently is the head of Countrywide and his co-conspirators make huge amounts of money while Americans are facing the threat of losing their own homes,” he told reporters in Prescott, Ariz. “It’s a terrible thing.”
Meanwhile, on the other side of the campaign aisle, there is fresh evidence of disarray…
PAGE ONE
Clinton Aide Quits Amid Controversy On Colombia
By JACKIE CALMES
April 7, 2008
WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton has replaced the longtime chief strategist of her presidential campaign, Mark Penn, after it was disclosed that he was working with Colombia’s government to help win congressional approval of a trade pact that she opposes.
I believe it may have something to do about his meeting with the president of Colombia over the FT agreement that she’s come out against. Or, maybe it’s because her campaign is on life support…
Continuing weakness in the resale market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aKkr09r34Zok&refer=home
Im gonna bite off a really tiny piece of big Cap Beta tomorrow.
Im still lookin for the recovery story, and I have it on good authority that the virtual world is doing much better than reality.
The Episcopal priest wasn’t making a joke; he was a snob, and a member of the local country club. I had to listen to him for a long time before I could make a polite escape.
My neighbors think themselves very religious (the ones I’m referring to, that is) and spiritual, and really do think they’re special. They’re all nice people, but boring beyond belief when they start talking about their money and important jobs. They’re even more boring when they talk about each other’s money.
One of my aunts,
I hit the button and cut the comment off, but it was unnecessary in any event. Sorry for rambling.
How did these comments related to another letter way above get down here? I guess the universe is telling me something.
The bankers are coming! The bankers are coming!
IMF head calls for global action on turmoil
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: April 6 2008 22:02 | Last updated: April 6 2008 22:02
Government intervention at a global level is required to tackle the credit crisis, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund, who has warned that market turmoil will take a serious toll on world growth.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director, told the FT: “I really think that the need for public intervention is becoming more evident.”
Government intervention – whether in the securities market, the housing market or the banking sector – would act as a “third line of defence” supporting monetary and fiscal policy, he said.
Whoever cooked up this New Keynesian paradigm forgot that housing is a consumption good, subject to consumer price inflation and all. Never mind that you consume it over a very long period of time — it is still consumption once it is built (as evidenced by those of us who pay rent for our housing services). And the Good Lord knows there was plenty enough built in the U.S. since 1998 to last us for a goodly while!
Central banks must care about house prices
By Wolfgang Münchau
Published: April 6 2008 18:28 | Last updated: April 6 2008 18:28
The International Monetary Fund last week gave central banks some wicked advice* (caution: .pdf). They should no longer ignore residential property prices when setting interest rates. At the same time, the IMF recommends central banks should retain their inflation-targeting frameworks. It all sounds very plausible. Unfortunately the two goals are inconsistent.
The reason why central bankers in the past refused to take explicit account of property and other asset prices is not accidental. The New Keynesian forecasting models, with which central banks predict future output and inflation, have no explicit role for money, financial markets and asset prices. The way modern central banks deal with asset price bubbles is to do nothing until they burst and then clean up the mess. For the New Keynesian framework to work well, a narrow inflation measure is not a design error. It is essential.
The problem is that you cannot just shove an asset price formula into the model.
Regulation needs more than tuning
By Clive Crook
Published: April 6 2008 18:38 | Last updated: April 6 2008 18:38
…
Financial crises rarely have a single cause and the current one is no exception. But with all due respect for the complexity of the matter, can anybody deny that the US market for subprime mortgages was a critical component? And can anybody apart from Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, look at the way this business was conducted and argue that it was adequately regulated? At the origination level, fraud was a factor, to be sure – and fraud is illegal, with or without new rules. But indefensibly bad practice was widespread, too, by originators that were lightly regulated or completely unregulated. Much of this bad lending was preventable by ordinary standards of prudence – and to say so is not the wisdom of hindsight. The late Edward Gramlich, a former Fed governor, gave ample warning of this regulatory lacuna.
He was right and Mr Greenspan was wrong. The subprime mortgage business needs more regulation. There, was that so hard?