The Housing Bubble

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street, Washington and beyond. AP, “The U.S. economy has “turned down sharply” and is at risk for further weakening, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said. Paulson also called it a ‘disgrace’ that there hasn’t been any legislation to reform oversight of Fannie and Freddie. And he said financial institutions shouldn’t look to government to raise capital but should raise it on their own.”

“He said a swoon in the housing sector, which was largely to blame for the rough patch, was necessary. ‘We need to have this correction. It’s not pleasant, but we need to have it,’ Paulson said in reference to declining U.S. house prices and homebuilding.”

The Wall Street Journal. “With criticism of Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan more prevalent, one longtime thorn in his side couldn’t resist weighing in.”

“‘He protests too loudly of the criticism that is justly due him,’ Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky said after reading a lengthy article about Mr. Greenspan’s efforts to address his critics in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal. ‘I’ve never seen someone who doesn’t think he needs defending defend himself so much,’ he told The Wall Street Journal.”

“‘On this latest housing debacle and boom, holding rates too low for too long led to the boom and to the bust,’ he said.”

“Mr. Bunning admits he didn’t tell Mr. Greenspan at the time it was holding rates too low. His own lack of foresight, however, isn’t a reason to be less critical of the Fed, he says.”

“‘If they don’t have a more sophisticated way of gauging monetary policy and the economy than an ordinary member of the House or Senate banking committee… we should do away with the Fed,’ Mr. Bunning said.”

Finfacts Ireland. “The world’s biggest banks on Wednesday publicly accepted much of the blame for the credit crisis as they seek to head-off demands for more regulation.”

“The Institute of International Finance, representing more than 375 of the world’s largest financial companies, acknowledged ‘major points of weaknesses in business practices,’ including bankers’ pay and the management of risk.”

“The report says that market changes that have both catalyzed and resulted from the growth of the ‘originate-to-distribute’ business model have created incentives for both firms and individual employees that have, in some cases, conflicted with sound underwriting practices, realization of risk-management goals, or the long-term interests of shareholders, reflecting, in part, the emphasis on short-term profitability in financial reporting and bonus payouts.”

The Arab News. “Real estate prices in Riyadh have increased by 40 to 90 percent in recent months, but analysts said property prices in the Kingdom were still the lowest compared to neighboring GCC countries.”

“Suleiman Al-Amri, chairman of a real estate company, said prices of real estate in some areas of Riyadh have increased by 90 percent. ‘This is really frightening.’”

“He said he believed that real estate prices in the Kingdom were much lower compared to neighboring countries. ‘This indicates that real estate prices in the Kingdom are still normal,’ he added.”

“Al-Amri spoke about growing prospects for investment in real estate in Riyadh as 70 percent of Saudis living in the city still do not own a house. ‘This situation will increase demand for real estate for building houses,’ he added.”

“Abdul Aziz Al-Jaad, a member of the real estate committee at the Riyadh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the tremendous hike in prices would discourage many Saudis from purchasing land. ‘They will wait until the prices come down,’ he added.”

The Geelong Advertiser from Australia. “Greenspan’s defence of his record as US Federal Reserve chairman can shed some light on the outlook for housing prices in Australia. The key is to see housing through the eyes of investors, as a financial asset.”

“‘The dramatic fall in real long-term interest rates statistically explains, and is the most likely major cause of, real estate capitalisation rates (rent as a percentage of a property’s value) that declined and converged across the globe,’ he said.”

“He said the reason for the slide in long-term bond yields was that the primary driver of those yields _ inflation, had fallen since surging in the 1970s. Low inflation means investors not only require less compensation for expected price rises but are less worried about volatility in investment returns. Accordingly, they will accept lower yields.”

“In other words, investors will pay nearly twice today what they would have in 1989 to receive a given dollar amount of rent.”

“The moral of this story is that, although housing prices might suffer a drop as the economy slows, there is no reason to believe prices have lost touch with economic fundamentals. There is no bubble to be burst.”

The Globe & Mail from Canada. “There’s no shortage of housing markets that look like bubbles waiting to burst, but economists say Canada has become one of the safer places in the developed world to own residential real estate.”

“In 2004, the U.S. was in the same state of ‘equilibrium’ Canada is now in, but blew it when banks started providing exotic mortgages, creating an artificial demand for houses, said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.”

“‘Remember that things were fine there [in the U.S.] in 2004. Then rates went up, and bankers with imagination created this bubble,’ he said.”

“Fewer speculators and more conservative lending practices have helped protect Canada from a big housing market downturn like that in the U.S. and some European markets, said Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.”

“‘There’s been a real market for flipping homes [in those countries]. We just haven’t seen that develop at all in Toronto or even out West, where we have seen big increases in house prices,’ Ms. Cooper said.”

The Toronto Sun. “Compared to the first quarter of 2007, Toronto’s starts soared by 60% in the first three months of 2008, with the condo market still on fire. What you have to remember is: Today’s starts are yesterday’s sales.”

“After falling 14% in February, Toronto sales plunged another 27% in March. For the GTA sales were off 22%, with 6,631 homes changing hands last month, compared to 8,518 a year ago.”

“There will not be a crash, aka 1990s-style, says Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario economist with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Price gains are also slowing. But Tsiakopoulous predicts Toronto’s condo market will remain strong, for a number of reasons.”

“Foreign investors continue to snap them up, empty nesters are also buying and first-time buyers are flocking to condo-apartments for affordability. Bottom line, he says: ‘Consumers are not speculating that prices are going south, which they are in the U.S.’”

The Christian Science Monitor. “In March, several hundred Toronto residents braved the cold to line up before the opening of the sales office of a new condo project. Certified checks in hand, they wanted to make sure they got their choice within Aura, a proposed 75-story residential tower scheduled to go up downtown.”

“This isn’t the first time condo sales debuts have drawn large crowds. In November 2007, speculative buyers waited patiently beside heat lamps to place deposits on another 80-story slab. Despite a last-minute price hike – apartments advertised for $2 million catapulted to $8 million – sales remained heavy.”

“In 2008, 21,000 condo units are expected to hit the market and an additional 35,000 units are under development, according to Urbanation. The city is second only to the New York City region, the epicenter of condo building in North America.”

“But with up to 40 percent of new condo units in Toronto being bought by speculative investors rather than homeowners, the conditions are in place for a realestate bubble to form, analysts say. Still, other observers remain cautiously upbeat.”

“‘The thing that marks the boom in Toronto is that unlike New York City or Miami at its height, prices here are still really affordable,’ says Jane Renwick, editor of Urbanation. ‘Still, there’s a sense that the city’s real estate market is now in the eighth year of a five-year cycle.’”

From Reuters. “Fewer Dutch houses were sold in the first quarter of 2008 as Dutch consumer confidence suffered from the credit crisis, but average prices still went up, the Dutch organisation of house agents NVM said on Thursday.”

“NVM Chairman Ger Hukker dismissed fears of a Dutch housing bubble after the International Monetary Fund said last week that for some countries, including the Netherlands, house prices had grown in the decade ending in 2007 to 30 percent higher than economic fundamentals would suggest.”

“Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos also rebuffed the IMF’s concerns on Thursday, saying in a statement that the Dutch housing market was not comparable to the U.S. market. ‘In the Netherlands we do not have a thriving market for risky mortgages as in the United States, where these were the cause of the financial crisis,’ Bos said.”

The Financial Times. “The Bank of Ireland Mortgages has e-mailed brokers with the update that its mortgage range, which includes standard, self-certification and buy-to-let products, will be pulled until the end of next week.”

“It said the move had been prompted by the need to preserve service levels after experiencing high demand for products after many lenders have pulled products out of the market.”

From Belfast Today. “In a fresh sign of the uncertain housing market, a Northern Ireland lender last night became the last UK bank offering 100 per cent mortgages.”

“The Ulster Bank withdrew its equivalent product yesterday following the last mainstream UK bank’s withdrawal from the high risk sector on Monday. Such mortgages do not require the buyer to pay any deposit and were a common feature during the credit boom.”

“Andrew Hagger, spokesman for Moneyfacts, said that no other UK bank was now offering 100 per cent mortgages. ‘This time last year there were about 40 mortgage providers offering 100 per cent mortgages,’ he said. ‘Previously, 125 per cent mortgages were available, but now the most you can borrow is 97 per cent of a property’s value and those deals are coming under pressure.’”

The Strabane Chronicle. “Tough challenges lie ahead for the North West’s construction workers as a downturn in the industry begins to take hold, a leading building company warned this week. Bridge Construction’s Contracts Manager Michael McCauley spoke out after the Construction Employers Federation warned that ‘hundreds, if not thousands’ of jobs are at risk if the slump continues.”

“Around 84,000 people work in the construction industry in the North of Ireland, generating as much as £3.5bn annually.”

“‘One of the main reasons is that mortgages are a lot harder to get now, so people have stopped buying. So the market is being flooded with properties that no one is purchasing and the demand for new builds just isn’t there. It is making life very difficult for the construction industry,’ Mr McCauley explained.”

“‘Largely what has happened is that over the past four or five years house prices here have been on the rise. But the investors who were snapping up the properties have moved on and what we are seeing now is the knock on effect of that,’ he said. ‘The next six months to a year will be a major challenge because things are looking fairly bleak.’”

From Kilkenny Today. “The asking price for houses being sold in Kilkenny fell 3.3% in the first quarter of this year, according to a leading property web site. The average asking price for a house in Kilkenny is now €321,025.”

“The most significant drops occurred in the most expensive areas of the country, with asking prices falling by up to 7% in three months in South County Dublin and Wicklow. The fall in asking prices in early 2008 marks a change from late 2007, when asking prices remained static, but many sellers accepted offers below the advertised price.”

“‘Sellers appear to have accepted that the downturn in the housing market may last a while,’ commented economist Ronan Lyons. ‘With huge numbers of property for sale in many parts of the country, sellers are now finding they have to reduce the asking price in order to attract interest from buyers.’”

The Guardian. “Property Ladder, that inspirational Channel 4 show in which aspiring developers buy a house, do it up and flog it on for what they confidently expect will be a massive profit, returned to our screens for a new series last night, accompanied by a rash of front pages predicting imminent meltdown in the UK housing market.”

“And could Property Ladder itself, presented by the irrepressible Sarah Beeny, not be profitably remodelled as Property Snake?”

“Not a bit of it, says Beeny brightly, though she concedes it is a pretty cool title for a show: ‘How to make money in a falling market - that could be a real winner. It’s not going to happen, though, first of all because despite all those headlines saying property prices are going to collapse by half, I genuinely think a crash is phenomenally unlikely to happen. Some property prices will fall - some already have - but I don’t believe the majority will.’”

“Second, she continues, ‘People who make property make money in all markets and in all countries. There’ll be a few more losers, sure: people have been under the impression that you really can’t fail, and over the past two years you could have bought somewhere, sat on a sunlounger for a month, sold it on and made a profit. So there’s been overconfidence, and there’ll be caution. But people have to live somewhere, and as long as you buy at the right price.’”

“Britain’s biggest and oldest home interiors mag, editor Isobel McKenzie-Price has few qualms about the knock-on effect of a housing slump either.”

“‘Obviously these are going to be tough times,’ she remarks. ‘But what we’ve really noticed over the past five years or so is that people don’t talk about their ‘home’ any more - they talk about their ‘property’. They’re hyper-aware that their house is their biggest asset, and what they’re interested in doing is making the most of it.’”

“‘There’s always going to be a market for these programmes,’ concludes a thoroughly bouncy Beeny. ‘I’m not saying mine will be among them, and there may not be as many of them as there are at the moment - which, I would be the first to admit, is a little bit excessive. It would be nice, just once in a while, to see something else on the telly for a change.’”

From BBC News. “The drop in house prices might be a disaster for many home-owners, but some first-time buyers see it as a godsend. Left behind by more than a decade of soaring property values, thousands of young workers look to a slump as their only hope of securing an affordable mortgage.”

“One frustrated young professional is 34-year-old Izzy Miyaghi from Birmingham. He has been trying to get his feet on the first rung of the property ladder for three years. But Izzy’s masters degree and £28,000-a-year job as a community education outreach officer have not helped him achieve his ambition.”

“With a typical flat in his area selling for £120,000, he believes only a housing recession will help him. ‘I can’t wait for the crash,’ he says. ‘Bring it on.’”

“‘People talk about the crisis in the property market. But the real crisis is that so many people can’t afford a home of their own,’ he said. ‘I’m not looking for an investment. I’m looking for somewhere to live. The sooner a correction comes along, the better.’”

“However, the falling cost of property may not be the immediate salvation many would-be home-owners are banking on. Jonathan Davis, managing director of chartered financial planners Armstrong Davis Ltd, predicted the credit crunch would eventually be good news for those priced out of the market - but advised first-time buyers to wait.”

“‘Prices are likely to fall by 30-40% over a four-year period nationally,’ he advises. ‘Don’t touch property with a bargepole for two or three years.’”"