‘Urban Vision’ Meets Reality In Fairfax County
The Washington Post reports the ‘urban vision’ is in question. “In Fairfax County’s official vision for Tysons Corner, thousands of people live clustered around the Metro stops planned there. But in the reality of developers’ blueprints, a different Tysons is emerging, one with a population smaller than what county leaders have in mind.”
“A developer has decided to reduce the number of homes planned for the sliver of open land between the two Tysons malls. The plan approved three years ago called for Lerner Enterprises to build 540 condominiums, but the company now says it will build as few as 300 pricier ones.”
“At stake at Tysons is Fairfax’s fundamental philosophy about growth. The county hopes for mini-cities, complete with high-rises, where people can live, work, shop, eat and find entertainment without getting into a car. But the shift to fewer, costlier units at such a prime location near the Tysons Metro highlights how precarious the county’s plan is.”
“Lerner’s managing director of construction, Peter M. Rosen, said the company is considering going with fewer, larger units because it isn’t sure it can sell a higher number of smaller units. Under the initial scenario, the units would have averaged out to about 1,000 square feet; they are double that now. At current rates, the smaller homes would be priced at about $500,000, and Rosen expressed doubt about whether units of that size could have sold out at those prices.”
“‘We respond to the market,’ he said. The company would be willing to build more and smaller units, he said, but only ‘if you guarantee my market.’”
“To critics of the county’s plans for Tysons, the change to more limited and luxurious housing undermines the county’s claim that new housing at Tysons will benefit many rank-and-file employees there. ‘The canard of ‘Oh, we’ve got all these workers coming, and we need to provide housing’ is disproven when the county allows this to get through,’ said Laurie Genevro Cole, a Vienna Town Council member. ‘Nobody’s saying no to growth. We’re saying growth should serve a purpose. We don’t need hundreds more multimillion-dollar units.’”
we can’t sell 500 @ $500k/ea but we can sell 300 @ $1m/ea. apparently DC’s crack problem has been entirely localized in the Tyson’s offices of Lerner Enterprises.
That is too funny
“we can’t sell 500 @ $500k/ea but we can sell 300 @ $1m/ea”
This sounds funny but it is probably true here in Tysons. People working here are either super rich (like our sales people or execs) or just making an OK living (like me IT staff). Arlington and Fairfax has the 4th and 6th highest AVERAGE wage by counties (you can check that on CNN). However I assure you that me, an average Joe IT worker, do not earn even close to my friends working for the same job in NYC (1st) or SF (9th). I cannot afford a 500k condo, even it would be a dream for me (I am sitting in my cube now and Tyson’s shopping mall I is right outside my window..by the way as of 743pm now traffic outside is still s**ks). But I am sure that there are some dudes in this building willing to pay 1M for a condo
The plain reading of the article is that selling expensive articles will maximizing profits - because big homes call for high profit margin amenities. They could sell the 500, but they are less apt to have granite and other high-profit dodads.
Maybe they should wait until the Metro stop is actually built before they decide what to put on that property. Traffic in Tyson’s Corner is bad already. More condos won’t help.
Oh, I smell a rat! “Guarantee my market?” As all blog readers know, the bubble has burst in Fairfax County, VA, home to Tysons Corner. There has been massive building out there for several years running and supply is exploding.
It sounds to me like the developers, knowing full well they will never sell a bunch of million dollar condos in the middle of nowhere, are trying to game the county for tax concessions towards “affordable” units instead of gilded ones.
Before I die, I want to see somebody, anybody, involved in the real estate industry, blush, just once.
From CNNMoney.com. New web site by the creator of expedia for daily updated appraisals or “Zestimates” of home accross the country. Site is http://www.zillow.com, and the intention is to be able to track home values like stock prices. If this bubble does tank, a site like this might accelerate the process.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/08/real_estate/money_zillow/index.htm
C. Lopez,
A little OT, but I agree with your idea that Zillo could accelerate the process, especially when a potential buyer views the “1 year value change” graph and sees they are buying an asset with a sharply diminishing value. This is just what the Realtors don’t need right now…ouch.
That is so cool. I loved seeing the aerial photos of my house and my neighbors. Awesome site!!
You can also get aerial photos at maps.google.com by selecting the satelite option. Another site is terraserver.microsoft.com
zillo has my purchase price off by a factor of 10. They pegged my neighbor’s house right at the last sale, but the one up the street which sold more recently they have 10K over. I think they have my house valued way too high.
Fairfax City is busy doing the same. They have hundreds of condos planned as part of the downtown projects. All they’re actually doing, though, is blocking traffic, eliminating parking, and grinding the existing businesses to powder as they slowly strangle the traffic arteries. There was another article in the Post a week or two ago about the numbers of condos slated to come on the market - 28,000 or so if I recall correctly. Number that sold last year in Fairfax? 4,000. There is BIG trouble brewing…
Zillow is showing that the house I sold last April for mid 6’s in PW County is now worth 828K. Hm.
Why is that hard to believe? What was it worth 3 or 4 months ago? Most of the measurable declines I’ve seen in SoCal are pretty recent (3-4 mos). It looks like the party’s just getting started…or just finishing, depending on your perspective.
Arwen U, I’d take Zillow with a grain of salt. It is in beta testing, but if prices still seem uniformly too high (as other bloggers are indicating so far) after its debut, bear in mind that their model calls for getting revenue from real estate advertisers.
I would not place a great deal of credibility in this service unless they post a methodology of how will arrive at their figures and whether those numbers can be corroborated somehow. When the hand that feeds them is the real estate industry, we should be extra careful with the information they are putting out.
reference:
http://www.urbandigs.com/2006/01/heard_of_zillow.html
sorry typo — that was “how they will arrive” in last post.
okay, the idiots up the street have their house up for 515k, now go to zillow.com and look at these dumps we live in on this street AND we only have one bath in many of these houses - some have two but were added on - and by the way - we rent I would NEVER have bought this place for 300k a couple of years back…unbelieveable!!!
I’M an idiot~~7226 Allan Ave, 22046
zillow is 5 to 15% too high for my house. It would be good if I were selling.
Nurseliz - used to own a house on Arthur drive in your neck of the woods. Cute small brick 3bd, 1ba. It was a great rental. Those are not dumps - just modest. You have to start somewhere. Almost 70% in 2 years sounds pretty good to me. Bought mine in 1987 for 80K and sold it in 1990 for 152K. Should have kept it.
“homes planned for the sliver of open land between the two Tysons malls”
What, they couldn’t find any mysteriously cursed abandoned cemeteries to build on? Used to drive by there on 123 every day, and you couldn’t pay me $500k to take one. Sweet baby Jeebus.
Vainvestor…
I rent from a slumlord who has done zero improvements on this place, the toilet isn’t even bolted to the floor!!!!!! modest is one thing - dump is what we live in! these could be cute homes, and some have been rehabbed but not this one.
Interesting zillow charts in my neighborhood. My neighbor and I have homes of very similar size and age, and their current value numbers are within $3k of each other. According to the one year, the value of my home peaked in November and has slid a little since then. Value of house across the street slid a little over the summer, and then has risen modestly between October and now.
Though their overall current values seem to be pretty accurate based on what other similar homes in the area are listing and selling for. (zip 32578)
NurseLiz
Perhaps you should move. People on this site and others claim rents are very cheap. Who knows, some of my tenants have been in place for over ten years. If I have a good tenant I won’t raise the rent much (if at all). I always maintain my places as if I were living there myself. In fact, I would not buy a place unless I felt that I would be ok with living there.
Have you tried doing a walk-thru with your landlord? He might just fix it up. Turnover is very costly to landlords.
vainvestor:
he is well aware of the issues and I have put them in writing for him also. we have plumbing that backs up everytime it rains hard! The toilet overflowed on a sunday and required a plumber to fix it and he asked why it couldn’t wait??? the roof leaks and he knows about that. Perhaps we could “talk” offline - nurseliz27@msn.com
Hi Nurseliz,
Long time no see. Back in the late summer of last year, I told you about a house in Lansdowne that was for rent. Would you believe it STILL isn’t rented? It’s been empty for at least eight months now.
The county hopes for mini-cities, complete with high-rises, where people can live, work, shop, eat and find entertainment without getting into a car
What a vision. I can work in a strip-mall insurance brokerage, shop at Target, eat at China Garden, and then go sleep in my $500K, one-bedroom condo. Every day for the rest of my life. I hope there’s a liquor store there too, because I’m going to need one.
John in VA: Damn that it too funny! I can definitely relate to your sarcasm. What a life indeed. Like a bunch of little worker ants. Next to the liquor store they will need a gun shop because after a few years the booze probably isn’t going to cut it. Thanks for the laugh, it’s much needed at the end of the day.
John in Va:
awesome to hear from you too! I can’t believe that place is still for rent…is it small or something? Who knows about this market here…I just know it’s supposed to be soft…
No, it’s really pretty big — probably 3500sf above grade and it can’t be more than a few years old. It’s your typical big, boxy, vinyl-sided colonial. It probably hasn’t rented because it’s too big. Who wants to furnish a 3,500sf rental?
well, I have enough stuff for 2500 sqft!! but i’m like you, who wants to heat that white elephant…although it’s probably better insulation than here:)
I just found it…it’s 2950 a month and has 5 brs/4.5 baths . and probably well over 3k sq.ft.
John in VA :
funny! you may check if they’re gonna have a head shop too!!! I don’t think the liquor will be enough to remove yourself from that “hell” or you could find a pharmaceutical company and load up on some of those coma inducing drugs I give my patients!!! Now that’s livin’ in NoVA~!!!
I’ve lived in NoVa for most of my life and worked in Tysons for about 2 years, ending last summer. I can hardly imagine a worse place. No cultural amenities to speak of, except chain movie theaters. Almost no interesting restaurants (though the Lebnan Zama has some killer chicken shwarma). Heavy traffic all day long. Extremely dangerous for pedestrians. An overabundance of a**holes driving foreign SUVs. Two overpriced malls populated by stroller-pushing makeup counter victims yapping on their cell phones. Defense contractors who think they are part of the market economy. And, to top it off, not a single grocery store to support the existing condos. You’ve got to drive a few miles away from Tysons just to find the necessities. Yet there are dealerships for almost every brand of automobile sold in America.
I’m so glad I quit that job.
Tysons proper is a horrible place to live. The area was designed for cars, shopping and offices — not living. There are a zillion condo conversions for rent and sale, but at least they are not right smack in the middle of the busiest part of the area. (Remember the photo from the other DC blog of the signs outside Gates of McLean.)
Also, good point about groceries. You would have to fight traffic and drive several miles into McLean, Vienna or Falls Church to buy food.
off topic but the following was posted by a realtor on Craig’s List today for condos in Oakton:
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HUGE DEVELOPER INCENTIVE!!! Get 6% back to you at closing from the builder when you purchase on of these gorgeous units…
BEAUTIFUL, garden-style 1 & 2 bedroom BRAND NEW converted units available in OAKTON, VA starting in the $270’s!!
The average single family home price in Oakton is $1MM! Don’t miss out on owning the least expensive property in the most expensive neighbourhood!
AND the developer is giving 6% back to buyers at closing!! Have your closing costs PAID FOR and buy down your interest rate to end up with a LOW PAYMENT!!
This incentive has NEVER been offered by any other community in Northern VA!!
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few things:
1) is “BRAND NEW converted” an oxymoron?
2) is the average SFH in Oakton really going for $1m? note to self: meet a girl from Oakton
3) is this ad becoming the norm?
Thanks. Ben- great site.
The more Fairfax builds without mass transit infrastructure the worse their traffic be. Let’em build density out in Tysons this actually is very good for DC.
http://www.dcbubble.blogspot.com