Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 18, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Deepening… No surprise here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/18/business/18hours.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
From the article:
In Los Angeles, William Righi, a musician, bemoans the sudden difficulty of getting jazz and blues gigs at restaurants and parties.
One of my all-time favorite quotes is from jazz saxophonist Branford Marsalis: “How do you make $1 million in jazz? Start out with $2 million.”
The rate at which the American standard of living is declining is frightening. I am seeing it first hand as I live in a rural area. I have never seen so many trucks, or vehicles period, for sale on the side of the road. Gas prices are killing peoples budgets. Diesel is $4.15 per gallon here, regular unleaded $3.60. This is over $1 per gallon more than this time last year. Most people in my area are forced to drive A LOT. I’ve recently noticed a few homes that appear to be vacated. We had some horrible flooding this past year which has hammered the local economy as well. Business, in all sectors, is WAY DOWN. This is Chehalis, WA (south of Olympia).
seeing the same thing BBear.
Also only driving the necessary trips, few and far between. No more visiting just for the sake of visitin.
that’s only because most families have 2-3 cars when 1 is sufficient. Still need to differentiate between want and need.
I’m not sure I even understand your reply.
Maybe Moman means that when times get tough, people suddenly realize that they don’t need all the extra vehicles.
Yes, that’s what I meant. I had a sodium balance from drinking too much ice tea.
Thanks!
Comment by Moman:
“..most families have 2-3 cars when 1 is sufficient. Still need to differentiate between want and need.”
Here in central Zona it’s three trucks, 1 car, one RV, one motorcycle, and two ATV’s. Fill ‘er up bubba!
“Here in central Zona it’s three trucks, 1 car, one RV, one motorcycle, and two ATV’s. Fill ‘er up bubba!”
You forgot the driving lawnmower and leaf blower!!
DOC
BanteringBear - I’m seeing the same thing in parts of Kitsap County, WA. It’s sad to see the little old lady counting out quarters to pay for gas for her 1993 Ford Escort. The quikie-stop by my place that sells regular for $3.35 always has lines at the pumps. It may be my imagination, but it really seems like the parking lot in front of the local Wal Mart is more empty than what I am used to seeing.
I have a sister and brother-in-law that live in Chehalis. My bro-in-law is a loan officer that works in Olympia (he used to specialize in sub-prime loans, really!). They don’t talk about it, but I am getting the impression that they aren’t doing as well as they used to.
I see it too. I was behind an elderly woman at the grocery store a few weeks ago. She seemed on the verge of tears as she fumbled for her money, remarking to the checker how her fixed income continues to buy less and less. She had to be 80. It really is heartbreaking to witness. But as long as the corporate fat cats and pols continue raping shareholders, employees, and citizens for trillions of dollars, it’s all good…
I have seen this too with the elderly in Atlanta. A few weeks ago when I was at the grocery store, I could tell that an elderly man was trying to figure out if he could afford to buy eggs in addition to the meagre amount of food in his hand held basket. He looked so pitiful, that I wanted to help, but I didn’t want to make him feel worse. So I took a $5 out of my purse, and dropped it on the floor behind him, then said “Excuse me sir, I believe you dropped some of your money .” He picked it up, looked really happy all of a sudden, and took the eggs he wanted off of the shelf.
Now that’s a great idea, thanks Kid Clu.
Interesting idea kid. Glad it worked for ya.
really touching story…we need more citizens like you, keep it up.
Best thing I’ve read on this blog in ages.
Spectacular.
Random acts of kindness are the best -
“But as long as the corporate fat cats and pols continue raping shareholders, employees, and citizens for trillions of dollars, it’s all good… ”
Spot-on Banter…
I often wonder just how bad it’s going to have to get until the media-brainwashed masses finally figure out what’s really going on–i.e., who’s really stickin’ it to em’? Maybe they never will. I still get the creeps when I think about the money grubbing elitist-pandering turds suggesting privatizing social security.
The imperialist strategy is quite simple really…
1. Keep em’ scared. Check.
2. Keep em’ consuming through debt. Check.
3. Keep em’ hungry. By-product of 1 and 2. Check.
DOC
Citigroup swings to a quarterly loss of $5 billion and takes more than $10 billion in write-downs. Not making the mistake I made yesterday shorting Capital One and CIT. Remember, in the stock market, billions in losses= good news, the more the better. Stake out a big position so you don’t miss out. C will be up at least 3% today!!
DP
Heheh, global markets and U.S. futures are UP!
When google does right, the shorts are going to be running.
Finally, I think this rally will stick.
Matt - thanks again for DCR (still holding)
Just so ya know from Seeking Alpha.
D-Day for the MacroShares Crude Oil ETFs
The prospectus says that the funds will terminate if “the Applicable Reference Price of Crude Oil rises to or above $111.00 … for three (3) consecutive Price Determination Days.” …
“The trigger event has short-term traders chomping at the bit.
At termination, shareholders will receive payout at NAV…which right now is WAY below the share price for DCR. Barron’s first reported this anomaly on Sunday, and others have been moving into this trade. DCR is down more than 50% over the past five trading days, but still, the discrepancy exists.
At the close of trading on April 15, DCR closed at $4.12/share. Its NAV, however, was just $2.26/share. That’s a potential $1.86/share (or 45%) arbitrage profit, just for shorting the fund. Ummm … somebody get my broker on the phone.”
The seeking alpha article is badly worded I think - the 3 day rule has been met and the fund will be terminated and liquidated at the end of the current quarter June 26th . In essence DCR is trading like a put on WTI oil and the downside risk is minimal in my opinion.
TXChick, you are my 401(k)’s hero. Thanks
It must be the PPT getting in a pre-emptive strike.
Can anyone explain what’s going on here? Citi reported a big loss — more than estimates, in fact — yet it rises and take the futures up with it.
Aside from the PPT theories, perhaps there is already so much pessimism in the markets that as long as a bank like Citi doesn’t completely implode, that’s considered a relief.
Txchick, you’ve been calling a rally for a while. Yet you think that the rally will fade in the summer. How come? If this credit crisis turns out to be “just” a recession with no calamitous breakdown of the financial system, perhaps the markets don’t drop in the summer after all? Would love your take on this. Thanks.
I always try to analogize to previous years. Right now this kind of looks like 2000 to me. Probaby a rally back 62% - 75% (?) of the down move then kaboom. No, the problems aren’t over and they will reassert themselves. If the 2000 analogy is good, good time to start shorting might be in mid to late August. All fluid and subject to interpretation based on things that haven’t happened yet. I do think that because every rally attempt since the beginning of the year has been swatted down, when one finally sticks it will take down a bunch of neubears with it. Where where they last October and December when shorting was a nobrainer.
TX,
Are you all long?
“I always try to analogize to previous years.”
Won’t work here — it’s different this time compared to any time since the 1930s.
Txchck, if you’re still on the board, a question: am I insane then to hold onto SRS at this point?
S&P is up 8% since the post MLK day bottom. That is a solid 3 months of rally. You can look for PPT conspiracy theories all you want you’re not going to find them.
Fact of the matter is people were expecting the world to end. There was the real possibility that the likes of Citi, Wamu, Wachovia, etc could have gone belly up. The markets oversold on those fears.
The fact Citi only lost $5B is a positive given how much worse it could have been. I was in the holy s**t the end of the world is coming camp myself just a few months ago. I quickly realized I was wrong and started buying back in. Glad I did. And today will be a great day. I still have some home builder puts which will probably be worthless at the open, but oh well, can’t win em all.
The level of losses is going down. Citigroup lost 10 billion in 4th quarter 2007. This quarter it’s 5 billion.
The losses are getting smaller. Profits are still being made by a lot of companies. People were expecting the apocalypse, and now they’re looking around, seeing things mostly standing, and they’re getting giggly with relief.
I think that’s how a 5 billion dollar loss can drive the stock price up.
If we knew what Citi held in level 3 assets and other no-marketables, then they would be doing worse. They will just slowly mark their losses every few weeks to months in response to cap calls.
Yes, all long. Looking for the biggest rally of the year.
and again, made $2.20 on the SKF counter trend to the market. It’s nuts how that happens. Nearly every day.
I must admit that this bear is certainly taking it in the shorts right now. Fortunately I’ve been there for a long time, so am still slightly positive. Perhaps it’s foolish, but I plan to hang on until this downturn finally sticks.
It’ll be interesting to see that, if there is a big move down in late summer, if it’s triggered by some big event. In 2000 the trigger was the MS anti-trust suit - that was the needle that finally popped the tech balloon. Perhaps tx are you thinking that in this case Q2 earnings will be the trigger?
txchick,
Are you buying SKF the night before and putting in a sell order for first thing in the morning, or do you buy it at open and then turn around and sell it right away?
A little OT update for the “tin foil” gang. A bit of good news for a change, not that you’ll hear about it from the assbags posing as unbiased mainstream media outlets.
http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2008/04/17/congress-quietly-repeals-martial-law-provision/
Don’t run out and sell all your spare food and ammo though, it’s just a signing statement away from being a mute point.
I get it long or short in the premarket as soon as it opens.
packman wrote:
Actually, I seem to recall it was that Canadian teen who brought down several large sites, Yahoo, etc, with a DOS attack. That was early February 2000. The tech bubble started deflating late February 2000.
The Canadian teen’s ability to shut down several large Internet companies with gigantic market caps spooked investors and forced them to consider just what it was they were throwing their money at.
THAT was the needle IMHO. The Microsoft antitrust suit was filed in 1998, according to this press release from the Justice department
Actually, NASDAQ reached its peak on March 10, 2000. But it was early February of that year, a few weeks earlier, when the teen shut down Yahoo, etc. I always thought that was the needle that popped the bubble.
Link goes to Yahoo Finance stock chart:
http://tinyurl.com/5weod8
The antitrust ruling was issued on April, 3, 2000, soon after the NASDAQ’s topmost peak.
People who think the tech bubble was popped by one such thing as a DOS attack or litigation against MS are most certainly high on drugs.
I disagree. I distinctly remember - the defining moment for the popping of the tech bubble was the period Mar. 28 thru April 4. The Nasdaq went down almost 10% in that brief period, in anticipation of the Microsoft ruling, and never recovered. Though the technical peak was 5,048 on March 10 - the index was still very close at 4,958 on March 27.
From the Wikipedia entry on the tech bubble:
Certainly there were other root causes of course the bubble itself and even to its subsequent collapse. The trigger event though IMO was most definitely the Miscrosoft ruling. In particular Microsoft’s stock went down 16% on April 3, and down about 40% in month period or so, and that made a lot of people start to think twice about tech stocks in general, that previously had though they were no-brainer easy gains.
Nah — it is likely due to the news that Freddie and Fannie are “investing” in purchases of Jumbo mortgages — buying them right off the books of banks with bad mortgage gambling debt, as no private investors are currently stepping up to the plate. The ostensible reason is to lower Jumbo lending rates facing consumers, but there is apparently a serendipitous opportunity for big banks to unload toxic mortgages that no private invester would touch. With home prices dropping at a 25 pct annualized rate on a nationwide basis, the demand for Jumbo mortgages is apparently waning at the moment, but at least Megabank Inc gets to dump their gambling debt somewhere else, which will help pay for those top management bonuses.
(Story heard on 4:50a version of American Public Media’s Marketplace; sorry, I cannot find a link.)
P.S. Luckily the GSEs do not have Treasury-backed guarantees of their debt (do they???), or this would be a worrisome development for U.S. taxpayers.
Freddie to Finance Jumbo Loans
By ANDREW EDWARDS
April 17, 2008 1:55 p.m.
Freddie Mac plans to finance $10 billion to $15 billion in jumbo mortgages from big lenders in an effort to jump start the frozen higher-priced housing market.
The move, anticipated since Congress changed the rules allowing government-sponsored enterprises Freddie and Fannie Mae to buy mortgages worth up to $729,750 in 224 high-cost markets, should allow home buyers in those areas to get cheaper rates than otherwise possible in the current credit crisis.
..yet it rises and take the futures up with it..
When a troubled business recognizes losses, cuts away the deadwood, plugs a few holes and generally cleans house, it’s prospects are brighter and it’s stock becomes more attractive.
“Freddie Mac plans to finance $10 billion to $15 billion in jumbo mortgages from big lenders in an effort to jump start the frozen higher-priced housing market.”
Folks with $275k+/yr household incomes don’t need a helping hand, IMHO.
I sold my SRS at the open. While I believe that commercial RE still will be weak going forward, waiting for that to happen in this low interest rate environment is a very bad bet. Here’s why.
I learned a hard lesson about holding an ultra-short ETF for more than a trade. I now know this: even if the market is flat over a period of time, any volatility makes an ultrashort ETF trend toward zero over time. It’s just math. Every time SRS goes down, it takes way more effort for it to make up for that loss because of very nature of being 200% short. Plus, SRS must make up for the dividend gains in IYR, the underlying long index. So SRS gets a double wammy.
Perhaps the time to play SRS is when the first REIT actually reports bad numbers, assuming that more REIT bad news will follow.
tl … I bought your SRS at the open. Not sure who’s correct, however as evidenced by todays results there is support at these levels. I also agree that this hasn’t played out yet. It just takes some $#@%^ to hang onto your convictions in this market.
You’re right. I bought SRS in January at way too high a price. Even the Bear Sterns debacle only got me to break-even (at the time). I got tired of worring about it, so I sold it. Of course, it went up from the open today — so now I’m worried about it again!
Yeah, I was lucky. I got out in January at about 135. I wasn’t to happy for a bit when it went to 150 but it worked out. Good luck.
Dutch AEX index up more than 2%, it accelerated after the good news from $hiti. It has been a week of non-stop gains on the EU stockmarket, after the G7 talks; manipulation or just another sigh of relief - wonder how long this denial can last.
Bingo - market is setting up for a 200+ point rally because Citi lost $5 billion this quarter. Yeah… Oh, and Google’s tactic of hiring people to just click endless on their ad links is working nicely. Good to see we still produce something in America… internet ads… Yeah for us!
Remember: The stock market only goes up! (So long as the Fed has its back, I guess!)
RE party is over in Canada
OTTAWA - Existing homes sales tumbled 13 per cent for the first three months of the year compared to last year and the resale market has become “more balanced” for the first time in nearly a decade, prompting one analyst to call the end of Canada’s hot housing market.
“Canada’s six-year housing market boom is officially over,” Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said in response to the January-March survey released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
“Aside from a few choice Prairie locales, sales are melting faster than this year’s snow pack,” Porter said in a note.
And nobody is calling for a Stanley Cup rally
I expect a “phony war” for the rest of this year as inventory builds up, followed by a bust in 2009.
BTW the bubble was not as widespread in Canada as in the US - a big bubble in the far west and a smaller bubble in Toronto.
Sorry, I messed up that link:
RE party over in Canada
It ain’t cheap in the Maritimes either. My former 19K house is now “worth” about 40 multiple of that. It is on several acres and on the ocean though so I know it’s not the house.
The party is still on here in Saint John. Expectation is that lots of energy projects - LNG terminal (being built), nuclear plant upgrade (has started), new oil refinery (maybe), second nuclear plant (very maybe) will keep things booming along. Of course if a recession hits and energy demand craters, all bets are off.
One of my best friends is at a hedge fund (can you believe it?) in St John’s. Smart smart guy, a CPA, but he’s totally onboard with the bubble there. RE never goes down there.
I do not see energy demand cratering any time soon. There are many more players in the game now than 30 years ago, and more $ to pay for the oil
From Bloomberg: The poorest province in Canada is getting off the dole.
The province of Newfoundland and Labrador is being transformed by oil, and by the willingness of Premier Danny Williams to fight Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. for a bigger slice of the revenue. Oil is raising the standard of living for the province’s 508,000 people while bringing lower taxes, smoother roads and cheaper education.
This may be a pocket of resistance to the current crisis.
LNG = liquified natural gas Is that to bring gas into Canada?
Yes, at least for a few miles; they are also building a pipeline. I think the pipeline goes to the US, though.
Check this article out on the St. John LNG terminal. Canada is the 3rd largest producer of NG in the world & exports about 1/2 of its NG production to the USA. NG is a key part of extraction of oil from oil shale. The USA has been very slow to increase its capacity for LNG importation and in building NG pipelines to transport its own NG production from low-priced areas to higher-priced ones. If NG prices in the US continue to rise as they have, Canada could profit immensely from building LNG terminals.
Alaska’s economy is undergoing similar expectations of “it’s different here” with respect to record energy prices. In places with a small population but lots of oil, it seems more difficult to feel certain what kind of local buffering effect it will have on the economy. I’m hoping it doesn’t keep the Anchorage real estate bubble from deflating, though.
“BTW the bubble was not as widespread in Canada as in the US - a big bubble in the far west and a smaller bubble in Toronto.”
I wonder. My gf near Perth pays $700/mo on an 800 ft2 cottage with 18 steps. The place was purchased ten years ago for $60K, now “worth” $350K. She’s a teacher and I think earns about $60K. She cannot find any house that she can afford, not even a fishing shack. No bubble there?
The neighbors are all real estate investors with ARMs. “You just refi when the reset comes up.” “God ain’t making any more of it.” “Real estate around here has never gone down.” “Everyone wants to live in Perth.”
“The neighbors are all real estate investors with ARMs. “You just refi when the reset comes up.” “God ain’t making any more of it.” “Real estate around here has never gone down.” “Everyone wants to live in Perth.”
Hearing this garbage again is mind numbing.
yes, one could hope that people learned something from the US experience but that clearly isn’t the case. Denial all over the world, most of all in the worst bubble markets of course where ‘everything is different’. If anything, the internet is helping to slow the worldwide bubblecrash instead of speeding it up.
OMG! Perth! My grandfather was from there! I remember his house very clearly. I loved that little town. Wasn’t there a Tay River there?
Yes, very beautiful. The Tay connects to the Rideau system, built after the war of 1812 to defend against another American attack (a back route to Ottowa). I walked right into the place with no trouble, so I guess the defences aren’t too effective.
I remember the Black Diamond cheese factory was there too. We spent several summers in Perth. I loved it there. Key word: summers. LOL
All mortgages in Canada are ARMs. There are no 30 year fixed rates, I think the longest fixed term is 10 years.
Sounds like I should explore creating a Canadian niche, some people might WANT fixed rates — tho my rates are always on a high plateau …
Perth is one of the most attractive small towns in Ontario. I wouldn’t mind living there myself, but it has something in common with with other Ontario small towns - no jobs.
I flatly don’t believe that a small house in Perth would sell for 350K. You can get a decent house in Ottawa for that. Here’s a 100 acre hobby farm in Perth asking 365K.
And this house in a fashionable area of Ottawa is asking 350K>
Ottawa is the most reasonably priced million+ city in English-speaking Canada, and it has a lot of good jobs and good amenities. Why a frozen sh!thole like Edmonton is more expensive is beyond me. Ottawa may well escape nominal declines in the coming bust.
LOL. In Ottawa people skate to work, don’t they? Careful calling other places a frozen shithole.
I was in Ottawa for a weekend in January 1996. I have yet to experience cold like that since. It was awful and I will never go anywhere near that place Nov-March ever again.
My brother lives and practices medicine in Ottawa.
Looks nice. The realator is in Perth, the farm is down the river. Hey, maybe the gf’s neighborhood is wrong about their local values, but not by an order of magnitude.
I bet ice out on the Tay is a hoot. Did you get over your 350cm snow everyone was cheering for up there in Ottowa yet?
Show me a nice house for 3xmedian income in there’s-no-bubble-here land please.
Iceland, a Tiny Dynamo, Loses Steam
http://tinyurl.com/6k9jbv
Now the banks — the symbol of Iceland’s metamorphosis from a poor fishing society into the North Star of the global economy, holding assets nearly 10 times the nation’s gross domestic product — are fending off rumors that they may need a bailout. On Thursday, Standard & Poor’s, saying the banks’ problems could make the downturn longer and deeper, cut Iceland’s credit rating.
Do you think the fed will be bailing out Iceland next? Most booms do go bust.
I think the FED prefers foreign countries or companies to go bust with a bang, and have some of their Wall Street hedgy friends pickup the pieces for cents on the dollar.
When is Standard & Poor’s going to cut the US and FED credit ratings? It’s about time they get downgraded to junk status …
The Fed doesn’t have a credit rating because it doesn’t borrow money. It creates it out of nothing. It’s a lender.
When is some one going to cut Standard & Poor’s credit ratings?
As has been said before, the ratings agencies don’t have the stones to cut the US’s rating. It would be game over…
In a froze-out financial market on the verge of going kerplunk, wouldn’t the irony be complete, if Iceland was the catalyst, in being the harbinger of doom, world-wide?
This just in today about Maine, for those who are interested (sorry, no link, came in an e-mail). Wonder what the next quarter will bring?
“Maine Has Seen A 13.6% Increase In Homes In Foreclosure Since Last Quarter.
“In the 4th quarter, Maine had 1,386 homes in foreclosure - an increase of 13.6 percent over the previous quarter.”
[Joint Economic Committee, 4th Quarter 2007]
ME will go back to the backwoods frozen tundra 9 months out of the year that always has been, regardless of the ME RE troll who said right up the Q4 2007 that ME was the worldwide destination of global millionares…..
Nah, there’s two “Maines” now. The southern part along 1 and 95, which is now effectively yet another Boston suburb, and the rest of it, which is pretty much out in the woods. As long as Boston’s got businesses making money, those 2 or 3 south counties will do fine. Not much has changed in much of the rest of ME in 50 years or more, besides adding cable and dish TV and some internet access.
Well, that and the kids get high on Oxycontin and meth now instead of beer and pot. The town I went to high school in had to build a big new wing just for drug rehab treatment for the county. *facepalm*
“BTW the bubble was not as widespread in Canada as in the US - a big bubble in the far west and a smaller bubble in Toronto.”
I’m not so sure about that. I remember an article Ben posted talking about how Winnipeg was booming - Winnipeg.
Vancouver transit riders tasered for not paying fares
Murray Mollard of the B.C. Civil Liberties Association, which supports a moratorium, said he was shocked by the news of transit passengers being tasered.
“To apply a taser on someone fleeing the scene while trying to evade a fine is, quite frankly, an outrageous abuse of this weapon,” Mr. Mollard said.
“Do we really need police officers with guns and tasers using them in the context of fare evasion? I don’t think so. This really is very hard to believe.” You can say that again.
But I’m sure the law n’ order, chain’em to the ground types love this abuse of power…… until it’s them or one theirs who get tased.
Does it work? Maybe we can “taser” cars without toll tags
Sorry, and I’ve never been tasered, but this is kinda funny.
Pay the fares, you morons.
You have the right to remain silent, eh???
Good point Blano. Send those hardened habitual criminal fair jumpers to the guillotine.
Wow…
This “Taser-Fare” Affair is appears to be quite shocking even for those crime ridden Canadian commuters.
I think America should have a “Taser-Fare Policy” and immediately ZAP THE HELL out of all those Corporate, Congressional and Administration FREELOADERS riding the the US Taxpayers GRAVYTRAIN
Tase ‘em, bro!
Now mikey…. How dare you suggest that the corporatists are anything but honorable, God fearing, turrrrist hating, flagpin wearing pillars of the community? Blasphemous!!!! They are looking out for you!!!!!!
My BIL tried to convince me to invest in something that is like a Taser, but not a Taser. Supposedly, it is not lethal, so police departments can use it with abandon without fear of accidentally killing someone. Anyone know the name of the company?
Be careful where you intend to use something like that. In some states, Tasers - like pretty much all forms of self-defense - are illegal. We wouldn’t want the criminals to meet any resistance, now would we?
Don’t Tase me bro!
Maybe the police should just smile and say, please stop. It’s much more civilized.
But British Columbia is the “best place on earth”. It must be true because it says so on the license plates. Also the Winter Olympics are coming so all the rich people in the world are going to move there and keep Vancouver more expensive than New York City, even though it does not have the headquarters of any bank or any other major company.
You’ve been misinformed. All the rich people in the world are going to move to downtown Austin.
even though it does not have the headquarters of any bank or any other major company
Sounds like Vancouver is Canada’s San Diego.
With 8 months of rain. Also San Diego is a lot cheaper.
Vancouver does have a big port, but San Diego has big military facilities, so I guess that’s a tradeoff.
Yeah, both have poorer neighbors immediately to the South.
Funny stuff.
Come on guys…
This falls under the realm of “cruel and unusual punishment”. Inflicting pain as punishment for not paying a fare is obviously outrageous.
Quotable…
“In a world of businessmen and financial intermediaries who aggressively seek profit, innovators will always outpace regulators; the authorities cannot prevent changes in the structure of portfolios from occurring. What they can do is keep the asset-equity ratio of banks within bounds by setting equity-absorption ratios for various types of assets. If the authorities constrain banks and are aware of the activities of fringe banks and other financial institutions, they are in a better position to attenuate the disruptive expansionary tendencies of our economy.”
Hyman Minsky, 1986
Being aware of the activities of fringe banks and other financial institutions is no easy job. As fast as authorities apply “constraints,” rogue traders will find ways around them.
There are entire law firms in Manhattan whose only purpose is to to come up with legal structures to evade these “constraints” on various financial products.
Forget the traders.
“Traders”, “law firms”, “legal structures”, tramps, thieves, outlaws, pirates, what’s the difference?
The difference between knowing what you talk about and looking stupid.
It is really stupid to buy into a rigged market.
‘The difference between knowing what you talk about and looking stupid.’
I never pester myself with questions about that. That sort of thing can take the edge off one’s panache and impair a smooth verbal delivery. See, educating myself is often tedious, and a lot of the people I talk to are ignorant and wouldn’t know anyhow. Therefore I just start talking and trust my mouth to be convincing. And, hey! I got a raise the other day!
“Traders”, “law firms”, “legal structures”, tramps, thieves, outlaws, pirates, what’s the difference?
Hmmmm. I’m going to guess…their hats? Is that it? Pirates have the best hats. Anyone can see that.
And they have parrots on their shoulders, and say “Arrrrrrrrrrrrrr” a lot.
Those eye-patches are cool, too.
5.4 earthquake rocks Illinois; felt 350 miles away Cleveland OH TV news reported they received phone calls from locals who felt it, more than 350 miles from the epicenter.
IllinoisBob reporting from the windy city: No damage, just enough of a jolt to shake the bed a bit @ 4:30am & disturb your sleep.
I felt nothing distinct, but I awoke at the time of the quake feeling vaguely upset & couldn’t get back to sleep. I got up, turned on the news & learned about the quake. It was either that, or the chili.
Who says the two are disconnected?
I was awakened by the quake this morning. shook the house for a good 20 seconds. Rattled the light fixtures. Rest of family slept through it.
Just felt a flyover aftershock…
“We’re in a rough patch right now,” Bush said.
What hath God rot?
So what are real estate prices like in New Madrid, Missouri?
“So what are real estate prices like in New Madrid, Missouri? ”
Certain great earthquakes such as the New Madrid quake around turn of the 19th century ,which literally changed the topography the the missippi valley, cannot be easily explained in the normal distribution of tectonic plates and the normal pattern of earthquakes and volcanos along the boundaries of such plates, in such areas as the pacific rim , along the mediterranean littoral, and along the atlantic ridge. They don’t fit neatly into the plate tectonics theory.
We know that S Cal , San francisco region, Japan, Chile, Central America among others are active seimic regions so we expect the occurance of EQ’s but in center of US it is rather odd.
Low - they never gained. No industry and nothing except farming and casinos. Fancy casinos taking money from the poor who can barely afford windows. But hey - let them maximize their utility.
My cats went a little bonkers, but I didn’t notice anything myself. That is, the cats woke me up … not the earthquake.
Interesting, all the anomalous activity off the Oregon coast and in S. Cal in the past few days. and then this bigger one. Wonder if there’s a connection.
“Interesting, all the anomalous activity off the Oregon coast and in S. Cal in the past few days. and then this bigger one. Wonder if there’s a connection”
The coast off Oregon is an area of active seimic activity as it marks the boundaries of two tectonic plates. It is similar to the offshore earthquake regions of Chile and indonesia, the zones of shifting plate boundaries or plate submergence.
It is the movement and sliding of those tectonic plates grinding against each other. Off the western coast of US and in CA the San Andra fault supposedly marks the boundaries of the North American plate and the Pacific Ocean Plate. The Pacific Plate is moving eastward and sliding and grinding against the NA Plate which appears to be moving west/northwest at 10 centimeters per year approximate. San Andrea does lock at certain points : the sudden release of these locked sections releases a lot of energy which accounts fot the massive once a century 8+ magnitude quakes along the SA fault.
SCal has 1000’s of faults crisscrossing underneath it and the LA basin, which are lateral offshoots of the great SA trunk fault, and some of these lateral offshoot faults in and of themselves can cause 7.0 quakes. Faults can lie dormant for hundreds of years before suddenly snapping.
Scientists/experts say that there is a 50-60% chance of a major 7-7.5 quake along the southern section of the SA fault within next 30 years. That mean anytime from tomorrow or maybe none .
We will have a minor 5.5- 6.0 quake in scal every few years, which is quite normal.
Last week I was in Lone Pine, Ca., where in 1872 an earthquake measuring about an 8 or so, did it’s once every 3,000 to 4,000 year thing.
Mother Nature has a wicked curveball~
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_Lone_Pine_earthquake
“Last week I was in Lone Pine, Ca., where in 1872 an earthquake measuring about an 8 or so, did it’s once every 3,000 to 4,000 year thing”
I have noticed a long basaltic-lava-like fault scarf running along side the 395 hwy just south of lone pine which gets higher and higher till it appears to be 100 ft high. The entire eastern side of sierras including the owens valley, independence and big pine areas , shows signs of recent active seismic and volcanic activity. Lots of geologically youthful redcone volcanoes and basaltic lava rock outcroppings show up all over the eastern foothill slopes of the sierra nevadas, marking the fault uplift zone there. Very geological interesting region.
I expect a major volcanic event in the Mammoth region in the near geologic future.
“near geologic future” - that’s anytime in the next few eons?
Right, but I’m not the one that said it was anomalous activity, it was the geologists. We know about the plates and constant tectonic movement, apparently this was different a few days ago.
That should make housing prices go up, right?
It’s probably been discussed here before, but I haven’t seen it.
Regarding the “stimulus checks”…maybe the purpose isn’t so people can spend it and jump-start the economy as much as it’s about re-capitalizing banks and lenders.
As has been discussed here before, J6 is flat out of money, and cannot pay his/her bills — including credit cards.
In addition to the “subprime” problem, there lurks the problem of all other consumer debt.
Maybe this is just the first of many such checks that will be sent to J6 in the hopes that J6 uses it to pay off some of that debt — all to save the banks/lenders.
I’ll go out on a limb and make a prediction that the govt will state that the stimulus plan was such a success that they will continue with it (quarterly, bi-annualy, annually??) until we have made it through the slow period.
Makes it look like a nice gesture for J6, while really a much nicer gesture for the banks.
“…until we have made it through the slow period.”
And then what? No more recessions ever? Endless economic growth, which if it ever sputters again, is simply restored by mailing everyone a couple checks?
What I can’t believe is that it took mankind until 2008 to figure out that the cure to all economic ills is just to hand out more money.
What I can’t believe is that it took mankind until 2008 to figure out that the cure to all economic ills is just to hand out more money.
——————
That certainly seems to be their plan, unfortunately.
Guess that means no more recessions, then.
BTW, I think Greenspan has been guilty of this, in one form or another, since he became Fed Chairman. The recessions/dislocations were always too short, no matter how violent. We are now paying the price for his multi-decade manipulations.
This is an aspect of AG’s legacy which I have not seen discussed (other than by himself): His policy of smoothing the business cycle into a steady, predictable stream of steady growth may have encouraged a piling on of risk lovers who thought they saw a sure thing in buying stocks and houses. AG himself suggested the Fed may have become a victim of its own success in smoothing the business cycle. Not sure what policy alternative would have been superior (as usual, it is easier to criticize what occurred than to articulate what would have worked better).
With endless economic growth, there is no risk of ever losing money by purchasing either houses or stocks. Since we have a risk-free asset market now, go out and sink all your savings into the housing and stock markets today, quit your job, and live out the rest of your days on the planet off the fruits of your real estate and stock market wealth effects.
Has there been a major shift in who invests in the last generation? I’m one of the first college educated members of my extended families (second generation off the farm), with many more since. I suspect I was also one of the first to own stocks etc. (except for savings bonds and fly-by-night mining stocks), at least since the 20s ;). I imagine that securities wealth is still greatly concentrated, but did the successful middle class start investing through 401k and so on in greatly increased numbers over the last 30 years? Did that put a floor under expansion to some extent also?
don’t know for the US, but in Netherlands I think the % of people that own significant amount of stocks is up at least 10x from previous generation. If you include private pension plans, insurance based on stock market investment etc., I guess a large majority are players now instead of just a few % (business people, rich renters etc.) one generation ago. When there are no more new buyers left every pyramid game starts to collapse.
I think the major shift was the institution of tax-deferred retirement savings plans and the virtual abolition of traditional pensions.
in other words spend your dollars while they are still worth something ?
Yes, it appears capital’s cycles have finally been tamed. Truly, there must be no need to ever work or be productive again.
5 o’clock’s comin’ early today!
Truly, there must be no need to ever work or be productive again.
5 o’clock’s comin’ early today!
Well, good, because the Cubbies have a 1:20 pm start today. So now I don’t even have to pretend to be productive this afternoon, right?
If it’s anything like yesterday, just keep on working….:)
So, Joe6pk pays his bills to the bank and the bank keeps the money to replenish its depleted reserves thus the money gets sucked out of circulation just as fast as it gets put into circulation.
Sounds about right.
That means deflation still will rule because the money supply will continue to shrink.
Deficit spending. Just tack it onto our kids’ and grandkids’ bills. Surely, by then, they’ll have really great jobs and won’t mind paying off our debts.
Those Feds must be economic and financial geniuses! The government borrows too much money to “give” to consumers who borrowed too much money. Rinse and repeat. Problem solved.
I should of majored in economics in college instead of computer science. Perhaps then I could be among the elite few that solve global economic problems with winks and nods.
Rebate checks will be spent primarily on food and fuel.
Everyone I know is spending them on credit card bills.
Was thinking I would buy foreighn coins and currency, get the money out of the system. Sort of like a protest vote.
Ditto.
Well that still means they are using it to buy stuff. Pay off $1200 of cc bills = $1200 free on the cc to go out and buy a new TV or whatever. People talk a good talk about paying off bills, but I would guess 3 months after the checks come in the cc balances will be right back to where they were. Just a hunch.
I’d bet most people planning on a CC payment with the $600 have already put an equal amount on the card and are praying the IRS direct deposits that check before the next payment due date.
Just a hunch. Last time the country did a similar thing, that is exactly what happened. Imagine this: You’re behind on everything - home, car, CC. You know you’re getting a $600 check (and a $700 tax refund because you stink at math to begin with) in a month. So what do you do? You make the same bet that got you there: put EVERYTHING on credit, get hit with the over the limit fee, and spend money you don’t have all because you made the minimum payment last month and besides, you have 17 days until that payment is due.
Talk to people that normally get refunds in February of any given year. Everyone has already spent the funds and is waiting for the check and meanwhile floating the balance on the credit card, paying 15.9%. No one says about their refund, “I’m putting in an extra mortgage payment” or “I’m droping it in the Roth IRA.” Because if they were the type that did, they would have calculated the withholding correctly and done it 365 days ago.
So, yeah. For the majority of Americans, the stimulus package has already been spent.
“For the majority of Americans, the stimulus package has already been spent.”
People are smart.
(LOL).
Food, fuel or fuel tank repairs: Thieves drill gas tanks to steal fuel. “This is like back in the gas crisis in the ’70s,” Plymouth Capt. Michael Belmont said. “Only then they used siphons.”
I had gas siphoned out of my car back in the 70s. Remember buying the locking gas cap.
Wait’ll a video of one of these Darwin Award candidates, who creats a spark with the drill, hits YouTube.
It’s Mad, Max.
Hmmm, painting the garage so the car is outside - maybe I should park it farther from the house. Idiot Texan thieves would probably drill my non-locked non-locking gas cap ;(
Depression business opportunity: HOT TAP. Inspired by the impact tools theives use to remove ignition switches, this innovative tool spikes the gas tank with one good swing, and establishes a leakproof connection for the siphon hose. Available in 5gpm and 10gpm models. Releases from the exhausted tank with one quick turn.
Workers Get Fewer Hours, Deepening the Downturn
http://tinyurl.com/6hoqrs
While official unemployment has risen only modestly, to 5.1 percent, the reduction of wages and working hours for those still employed has become a primary cause of distress, pushing many more Americans into a downward spiral, economists say.
And on Wednesday, the government reported that average earnings slipped in March after accounting for the rising costs of food and fuel — the sixth consecutive month that pay failed to keep pace with inflation.
In Los Angeles, William Righi, a musician, bemoans the sudden difficulty of getting jazz and blues gigs at restaurants and parties. He gives fewer private singing lessons to high school students.
“Their parents don’t want to pay,” Mr. Righi sighed. “They don’t have the money to burn. In the last month, it’s really dropped off.”
Singing the blues about not singing the blues. The party is over.
A friend who’s a teacher has these options for a 403 plan…no Vanguard,and no opting out. They all look terrible to me, maybe Fidelity is the least worst. Any thoughts appreciated. I apologize for being OT.
Fidelity, Mass Mutual, NYLife, Axa, ING,First Investors, Legend, Wachovia, AIG.
plus they usually get 50-60 basis points in fees
they might as well go for high small cap groth and the wacky sht and then also save outside the offerings
She needs to start inquiring about who is getting kickbacks for poor 403 choices.
No TIAA-CREF? Unusual for someone in education. Right, who is on the take for putting that line up together?
Hint: Start the search with the brother-in-laws, nephews, siblings, etc. of the local politician(s) responsible for that district.
This is the Buffalo school district…no TIAA-Cref, no Vanguard, no opting out. There are 10k plus current teachers hooked into this, and who knows how many retired…I told her in February to go to the committee and get Vanguard on the list, at least. Even with additional signatures on her request from teachers from her school and others, she was blown off.
Yeah, and I have no doubt this is a sweet deal for a whole load of somebodies. Buffalo’s public pensions…not a place I’d want my money. Practically speaking, Fidelity looks like the least worst, anyone think differently?
Our choices aren’t too wide, but there is TIAA-CREF and Fidelity. Split it 65% to the former and 35% to the latter. Heavy into bonds on both and holding ground. Growth comes from an outside spec. account.
What options do employees have for loosening up restrictions on 403 plans? Could employees organized a campaign to do this?
BTW, I don’t think this is at all OT.
I’m on the 401k committee at my job. It’s hard to get good deals but we’re a small company too. We love to give ‘em hell and we have managed to jawbone some fees down. But yeah, they were even trying to sell us Vanguard funds at 1.2 % fees and I called them on it…they’re always going to get back to me and never do. What a ripoff.
See if there is a self-direct option.
Tell the friend to talk to her HR about adding Vanguard.
I just saw your comment where you said the friend did this.
I only mentioned this since my wife’s School District recently did the same thing, and adding Vanguard was “not a problem”.
Auction-Bond Probe, Subpeonas for 18 Firms
April 18 (Bloomberg) — Regulators are widening their probes into the collapse of the auction-rate securities market as state regulators from New York to Washington scrutinize how Wall Street peddled the bonds to investors and issuers.
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo subpoenaed 18 banks and securities firms including UBS AG and Merrill Lynch & Co. in an investigation that could lead to criminal charges, a person familiar with the probe said yesterday. Officials from nine other states formed a task force to determine whether brokers misrepresented the debt as an alternative to money-market investments when they sold it to individuals.
“To have subpoenas and the threat of criminal investigations raised suggests that somebody has made up their mind that there really are abuses there,” said Donald Langevoort, a former Securities and Exchange Commission attorney who now teaches securities law at Georgetown University in Washington. “It certainly suggests something more than regulatory curiosity.”
Auction-Rate Market Faces Probe
New York’s attorney general launched a broad investigation into auction-rate securities, seeking data from 18 firms about their activities. The move is a sign of the building backlash against Wall Street for the credit crisis.
“The $330 billion auction-rate market virtually collapsed in February when demand for the securities dried up and Wall Street firms stopped providing the support for the market they’d given in the past.
When that happened, many issuers of the securities were faced with higher interest rates. Buyers of the securities — often wealthy clients of the brokerages and corporations — were left with instruments they thought were liquid but couldn’t sell.”
I am quite foggy on the details of this story, but I find myself hoping that someone can link the collapse of the auction rate market to the sudden availability of a plethora of below-market-rate loans at the Fed’s TAF. Am I just thinking wishfully here, or might there be a connection?
“The move is a sign of the building backlash against Wall Street for the credit crisis.”
Nah, he’s just running for governor.
I hope Cuomo exercises better judgement in his personal life than Spitzer did. Provisions of the Patriot Act made it possible for Spitzer to be outed. I imagine the Wall Street/ Bush Admin goons are painting a bullseye on Cuomo’s head as we speak.
I couldn’t stand Mario’s politics, but I thought he was a nice guy. Someone I wouldn’t mind having a beer with.
I would think the Bushies are gussing up their resume’s about now. Re: Wall Street, anything’s possible.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Did banks manipulate key index?
Concern is growing that banks may have been hiding their distress by manipulating a key financial benchmark called the LIBOR. It’s used as the basis for millions of financial transactions around the world, including mortgages and corporate loans. Stephen Beard reports.
Libor Surges After Scrutiny Does, Too
By Carrick Mollenkamp
Word Count: 692 | Companies Featured in This Article: HSBC Holdings, Bank of America
(Sorry if a repost…)
is there anything in Wall Street World that is NOT manipulated?
is there anything in Wall Street World that is NOT manipulated? ….crickets….
Yeah, I hear that as hard as they try to manipulate the crickets, they can never find them…
http://www.durangoherald.com/asp-bin/printable_article_generation.asp?article_path=/news/08/news080417_1.htm
Honor robes out for DHS graduation
Students with perfect GPAs protest principal’s decision
Students who earned at least a 4.0 GPA will be recognized by cords, and mentioned in the program at the May 24 graduation ceremony. But this year, the 4.0 students will wear red robes along with all their classmates.
“Every graduate has met the graduation requirements, and every child is special on graduation day,” Lashinsky wrote. “I feel the white gowns worn by some graduates diminish the accomplishment and hard work of other graduates by relative comparison.”
I think the honor students should wear bumper stickers on their behinds that say:
I AM AN HONOR STUDENT AT DURANGO HIGH SCHOOL
White robes are just stain magnets, IMO
Our district eliminated the speech from the valedictorian. Instead, the graduates voted for who they wanted to hear a speech from. So basically the most popular kid was up at the podium sending them off.
This is just more proof that the government schools are all about creating the collectivist mindset. We do not care to hear from the “best” of the class, only “popular vote” matters. Everyone deserves the same pay regardless of their grade. And you wonder why students don’t bother to excel!
Yeah, and we get our presidential candidates branded as “elitist” for making statements that on occasion aren’t pathetic attempts at pandering to voters. They’ve gotta go bowling and sip brewskys to appear to be more like “one of us.” God forbid we elect somebody who is unashamed at being intelligent.
Good point. Every person I know who’s intelligence (I think myself included) is derided as a know-it-all or just plain vain. It seems to be a criminal offense to read and study and get degrees while the others are watching American Idol and talking about beer and how houses always go up in price.
Ahem. You mean WHOSE intelligence is derided don’t you? Careful about deriding others’ intelligence while making grammar mistakes.
As for American Idol…watching mindless entertainment on TV and attaining a high level education are not mutually exclusive events. Get a grip.
It’s not the color of one’s skin or one’s gender or one’s war record that will determine the election.
It’s the size of the candidates proposed ‘bailout’ that matters.
Smallest one wins all.
The one with no bailout wins in a landslide.
Just more egalitarian BS. We are all brain surgeons.
” “Every graduate has met the graduation requirements, and every child is special on graduation day,” Lashinsky wrote”
The punks drinking and smoking and enjoying life right now will get the same recognition that the kids who put off gratification and worked hard.
Not giving the hardest and smartest workers credit is definitely good for the society. Great way to manage a company too.
I graduated from a high school in W. Colorado, too. The recognition came when they handed out the college scholarships. The really bright and hard-working students were getting lots of kudos at that point.
A lot of the boys wore nothing but their shorts under their robes. The whole ceremony was a crack-up. Kids don’t view such things as being that big of a deal, IMO. At my college ceremony, the highest honors went to a girl wearing a full gorrila suit. I blew off my MA ceremony, sitting through two had been enough…plus I wanted to get outta Dodge and go camping.
Graduation proceedings didn’t thrill me too much either, but I showed up to make family and teachers happy.
FWIW, I support student achievement being recognized and rewarded, and the little darlings in the article are getting their own color cord, so why all the fuss about the robes? It’s good for them to celebrate their specialness at Durango High’s graduation. Out there in the real world, they may not look all that impressive. So they had one glory day with their special little string on their hat.
I can see how the other students might feel bad. I was one of them. Daydreamed my way through HS, then on graduation day realized that the quiet ones had been working their asses off all along, and that I was a fool. Yeah we don’t need to learn that, LOL.
My friend wore shorts, tank top and sandals with his robe. His mother commented that he looked like a druid.
‘The recognition came when they handed out the college scholarships. The really bright and hard-working students were getting lots of kudos at that point.’
Beat me to it, losty.
Yeah, I don’t really care if some kids got a pretty string to twirl around, and if each and every one got a special, precisely equal pat on the head. Merit/hard work/native talent DOES out, (well, it often does,) and the college scholarship applications probably don’t have a little check-box asking what color any of these kid’s graduating gowns were, or are, or will be.
They may be mostly concerned with having to buy their own cord to hang stuff from in the car they are expecting after graduation.
United States Socialist Republic
Trophies for everyone!! Weeeeeee….
RE: Trophies for everyone!! Weeeeeee….
So sorry, Missy-USA no more big fella NUMBA #1
I think students who can speak english by the time they graduate deserve special recognition at high school graduations
Retailers seek their own stimulus
Pitches target shoppers getting rebate checks
By Penni Crabtree
STAFF WRITER
April 18, 2008
More than $100 billion in tax rebates will land in the hands of U.S. shoppers starting next month, and retailers are gearing up with promotions to persuade them to spend, not save, the windfall.
The other retailers have a very long way to go to beat the sure-fire, can’t-lose, never-ending, offer-you-can’t-refuse promotion currently being run by the oil industry. My tax rebate is going right into my gas tank.
I suspect most other Americans are in the same boat. Short term elasticity of demand for gasoline is much lower than is that for luxury retail consumption, as it is rather hard to unload SUVs in the aftermath of an unprecedented runup in oil prices.
There appears to be a parallel looming effect of the political doctrines that “everyone should be a homeowner” and “everyone should have a college education” on the respective lending markets for home mortgages and for student loans.
Sallie Mae hints of suspending student loans as losses mount
By Alan Zibel
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON – Sallie Mae says it cannot write money-losing student loans indefinitely. Top executives are holding “daily deliberations” about just how long the nation’s largest student lender can afford to sacrifice its bottom line for the sake of college-bound Americans, Sallie Mae CEO Albert J. Lord said yesterday.
strange that they can’t afford money-losing student loans (one would hope this provides at least some value for the community) but are happy to keep writing money-losing home loans (that provide only private benefits).
VERY good point.
Something went haywire with the above link. But there is no shortage of articles about this story out in cyberspace.
I submit that the value of a student loan to an investor is largely determined by the future earnings prospects of the recipient. The collapse of the student lending market may be due at least in part to a gloomy outlook for American graduates’ future earnings prospects. This also bodes ill for the theory that “real estate always goes up in the long run,” as without wage inflation, it is hard to imagine what will fuel long-term future real estate price appreciation. (Lending market manipulation by pols and financial bigwigs will only go so far.)
Sallie Mae Sounds the Alarm
By KATHY SHWIFF
April 17, 2008; Page C2
SLM Corp. swung to a first-quarter loss and warned it can’t make profitable loans at this time, prompting the nation’s largest student lender to assess its operation and call for a “system-wide liquidity solution.”
system-wide liquidity solution
really, are they looking for a solution to the splurges of liquidity that are causing all these troubles? Or do they suggest that student loans will be more profitable if B-52 Ben brings rates down another 5% or so?
Student loans have enabled colleges to increase tuition like crazy. If students could not borrow a lot of money, colleges would charge less. The student loan scam is a way to transfer future earnings from students to colleges. I hope the entire mess implodes before my kids hit college.
Education and housing - one could not pick two better ways to shake down a populace. After all, who would ever dare to raise a family in anything but the biggest and best possible building? And what parent would dare send their kid to anywhere but the best possible schools? Anything less would be tantamount to neglect, or even abuse.
If Sallie Mae needed some extra cash, I would be happy to send them a check for my full loan amount. All they need to do is make it worth it for me to do so.
Their money-losing loan is a money-making loan from my point of view. I’m still earning more interest in my money market account than I’m paying on this fixed-rate student loan. LOL.
I believe you are thinking about this backwards. You are starting from the premise of maybe eventually paying it off someday…
Amen brother!!!!! The only time I’ve heard this in the MSM, is once when CNBS let Peter Schiff out of the cage.
When the deflation hits, half the schools won’t have a reason to exist.
Of course this will only make us dumber than before. But that is what they want. Idiocracy here we come.
cant code.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z33gpRWWXPA
I don’t understand why Sallie Mae persists in trying to get us to sign up for a Sallie Mae credit card. Why are they peddling credit cards, anyway? We have no business with them - no loans.
bubblepain in Spain:
The Spanish government reported today that Spanish homeprices increased 4% from last year; this is the first time in ten years (probably longer I guess …) that the rate of increase is below official inflation (4.6%). Last month it was reported that applications for building permits were down 50% and home sales were down 27%. Some reports say homeprices near the Costas are in free fall, but it is more likely that people are just worried that the usual yearly 10-20% gains are no longer a given. The Spanish government will be pumping 18 billion euro into the economy, hoping to keep the property bubble from collapsing.
The same news message also mentions that according to an OECD report from a year ago Spain, France and Denmark were the most overvalued markets in Europe; Netherlands was not even mentioned in that report. Totally ridiculous of course, as Netherlands, UK and Ireland are more overvalued (certainly more than France and Denmark). But great for all the denialists like our Finance Minister and most OECD members, who keep stating that there is NO property bubble in Netherlands (or in their country).
txchick -
The list is in - and Dallas wins !!!!!
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/banking/yourcreditrating/p80782.asp
“Way to Go Big Dallas ”
Interesting to see something I’ve long speculated on confirmed. It’s a byproduct of Texas’ long proud history of being a deadbeat haven (or “debtor friendly” to put it in a more P.C. way)
Actually, it’s “Way to go Dallas!” and later “Fly, big D, Fly!”
I’ve worn out two copies of that movie and two copies of the book. I can quote it by heart frm beginning to end. A dubious distinction that calls the credibility of me as a post-grad from UC, but whatever. That little Clancy book is worth its weight in gold. Even at $1000 an ounce.
Can we fall in love with books again when we’re too poor for cable? Please?
Yay Dallas!
“In general, the ways you improve your credit score are the same in any case:
Correct errors.
Pay your bills on time.
Pay down your debt.
Apply for credit sparingly.”
Exactly the way to get to the point where you won’t particularly care about your credit rating. This is one of those learn by doing programs that would actually work, if enough people lived it.
“A California judge on Tuesday approved the settlement of a class-action lawsuit that will compensate about 800,000 Ford Explorer owners whose vehicles lost value because of a perceived rollover danger.”
“The settlement ends lawsuits against Ford Motor Co. in California, Connecticut, Illinois and Texas. Those lawsuits claimed that Explorers lost about $1,000 in resale value because of publicity stemming from a series of rollover accidents involving the SUV.”
“Under the settlement, those who bought Explorers in model years 1991 through 2001 are eligible for $500 vouchers to buy new Explorers or $300 vouchers to buy other Ford or Lincoln Mercury vehicles.”
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/16/america/Ford-Settlement.php
_____________________________________________________________
Don’t you just love the fruit of the labor of lawyers, regarding this settlement?
Rebates to buy another F vehicle?
That’s like going back to that same burrito joint that gave you the sh*ts last weekend.
thankyou! i needed a good laugh today!!
Wish I had $10 for every news report about drivers losing control of their SUVs on our icy roads here. People buy these things because they feel “safe” in them but don’t know how to handle them. They’d be better off with a 1970 Delta 88 than one of these rollboxes.
They could also slow down and not drive stupidly. My family owned a ‘72 Delta 88 by the way. 455 cubic inches of fury.
Great, you lose “value” because of “publicity”: so sue the idiots who rolled theirs over, or the newspapers. This is the vehicle dynamics equivelent of spilling hot coffee in your lap.
Problem is no one wants Explorers anymore. Lots of buzz that Ford will drop the vehicle alltogether.
People believe big bulky 4×4 is always safe. Asshat passing me in Dodge ram nailed the wall trying to take a curve in snow at 65 MPG.
sticker shock:
Rising prices for organic groceries are prompting some consumers to question their devotion to food produced without pesticides, chemical fertilizers or antibiotics. In some parts of the country, a loaf of organic bread can cost $4.50, a pound of pasta has hit $3, and organic milk is closing in on $7 a gallon
http://tinyurl.com/5hhfcu
rice run:
April 18 (Bloomberg) — Rice in Chicago jumped to a record, extending its rally for a fourth week, on speculation export restrictions may reduce supplies in some markets. Soybeans also rose, while corn and wheat were little changed.
http://tinyurl.com/5crf32
They used to grow a lot of rice in Louisiana and Mississippi? If it is getting record prices then that would be a nice boost to the post-Katrina economy (assuming all the swampland hasn’t gone condo by now).
Sticker shock is hitting farmers big time. A lot of planned plantings are being canceled for marginal farm land due to the increased cost for seeds and fertilizer. In Wisconsin, most dairy farms grow corn as winter feed; however hay is suitable. Excess corn was sold on the open market (co-ops). The farther North that ones farm is located the greater risk of crop loss due to weather. In the past this was not significant, but this year seed corn is $450/ac, diesel fuel is $4.50/gl, fertilizer is prohibitively expensive and rotenone is $1500/tn. a lot of farmers use rotenone. So for a small farm of 1000 acres or so the cash outlay this year is ~$600,000 before any crop is harvested.
The cash outlay is not so bad, if the crop comes in, there is profit. However from a dairy farmers perspective, it is the first time in years that it will be more economical to grow grass (hay), reduce the dairy herd size, layoff a few people and not have to worry about “if a corn crop comes in”.
For the dairy farms that buy feed - flip a coin. prices come down, no problems; prices continue to rise, they are out of business.
Dairy farms, just like everything else in this country, became corporatized in the last decade or so. Family dairy farming is pretty much dead. Thanks to the real estate bubble, smaller farmers in CA sold their land to be made into subdivisions, and spent the money building GIANT factory dairy operations in the desert in New Mexico (staffed largely by illegal immigrant labor, I might add). Some more family style farms still exist in a few states, but they can’t compete with the bigger operations. Economies of scale and such. A large percentage of the milk and cheese in this country is now produced in NM.
Of course, as gas costs rise, is it really such a good idea to centralize production in one area and ship it all the way across the country? Milk used to be produced locally, by smaller dairies in each community. There were numerous benefits to this, from genetic diversity in herds to simply spreading the money around in more hands. Now instead of a few independents with diverse herds you’ve got genetically homogeneous cows owned by a handful of multi-millionaires. Milk is cheaper to produce but you lose some things in the equation.
Like everything else in this country, what has been profitable in the short term will have unpleasant long-term consequences.
GIANT factory dairy operations in the desert in New Mexico (staffed largely by illegal immigrant labor, I might add).
Diary farms in Phoenix and surrounds and boy they can really smell nasty when it gets 110F.
Farmers do nothing but whine. If they pull a crop in this year, they’ll be in fat city. Prices of wheat, corn, soy beans are astronomical.
Not true! On paper it looks good, in reality the numbers are not favorable. Last year was awesome, this year cost are up enough to eat the profit. That is why corn acreage dropped and bean acreage went up. No fertilizer or special chemicals needed for beans.
Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.
mr euro losing patience:
Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s ‘Mr Euro’, has given the clearest warning to date that the world authorities may take action to halt the collapse of the dollar and undercut commodity speculation by hedge funds
http://tinyurl.com/6a3qtm
Speaking of 401ks and stuff. I just got statement for one from newish job. For all the funds these guys offer, “Net Expense Ratio” is in the 1.0 - 1.6% area. That’s a lot isn’t it?
Yes. Normal shitty setup for 401k plans, unfortunately. We had an offer to let us buy Vanguard funds at that rate, and I pointed out that Vgd total stock mkt was only .19 or .20 normally! At that point I was hoping the company would just drop it and I’d just use IRA’s instead since the max has been raised way up finally.
Above 1% is expensive for domestic stock funds. vanguard is really low on the expense because of the way the company is set-up. as a non profit I think?
Another kitsch and sink rally on Wall Street today?
Gold boosters better start yacking. Looks like Mr. Market is losing the faith.
Cooper notes that a weekly close about 12750 generates a Dow Theory buy signal.
Transports also broke out, 5487 was the july 18 high. A run back up to 5500? If the dollar has bottomed, gold to 800 and oil back to 100?
Tell you what. I sure hope so. I’ve got bling fever and the only cure is more cowbell.
I sold half my positions, don’t want to see another good gain evaporate.
Oil is up. The only thing pushing gold down today is a small dollar bounce because the Euros are threatening currency intervention. It won’t last.
dang it chick…..
that was coffee out the nose on the screen.
Txchick:
Thanks for the Cooper tip. That’s helped a lot. I had a nice last ten days as a result!!
He’s my hero. I’d still be a wage slave if I hadn’t “met” him many years ago.
txchick57,
Is this Stephen Cooper?
Jeff Cooper.
Jeff Cooper.
Thank you txchick57 and Blano.
Is the IMF already carrying out its threat to dump tons of gold?
IMF gold sales seen encouraging cenbank pact renewal
Thursday April 17 2008
I guess I don’t fully understand how this works?
Here are some statements from the article.
“Analysts say a new sales pact would support the gold market by avoiding panic selling or speculation over sales. It has been good for the banks as they can sell in the market without bringing down prices.”
So, there is some sort of mad rush to sell gold into a rising price and this agreement is to restrict that?
“The current pact, agreed in 2004, raised the sales limit over five years to 2,500 tonnes from 2,000 tonnes. The banks have sold 3,000 tonnes since 1999 and analysts say the desire to sell and the availability of surplus gold have been diminishing.
Some European central banks have almost completed their announced sales programme, a few others are not keen to sell while some banks are still debating or seeking parliamentary approvals to go ahead with the sales plan.”
Guess that isn’t the problem. They have authority to sell 4500 tonnes since 99′ and have sold 3000 tonnes. The follow-on language doesn’t seem to indicate a deep desire to offload their gold. Jeez, now I’m confused as I thought the problem was panic selling?
“But the IMF’s plan to sell gold and invest the proceeds in government and corporate bonds could provide some justification for another European Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA), even though it is not a European central bank, analysts said.”
What return do they expect to realise from this incredibly shrewd manuever? 3%? 5%?
Gold is up what, about 300% since 99′, up about 20% this year? Now I’m starting to understand why they get paid the big bucks!
“Analysts said any new five-year gold agreement after the end of the second pact in September 2009 was likely to retain the current sales limit of 500 tonnes a year, as a decline in sales by European banks could be met by the IMF”
No kidding? Ya know why? Because the Europeans don’t want to sell their friggin gold! The whole agreement is a mechanism to CAP the GOLD PRICE, not support the price!
The article starts off telling us the reason for the agreement is to cap selling to stabilize the gold price because it went too low and now we find out that the cap limits aren’t even being met and gold is at $900.
“….3,400 tonnes, sold just 15 tonnes in the last four years.
“It’s difficult to see enough ammunition to reach 500 tonnes a year going forward, without something like the IMF,” Klapwijk of GFMS Ltd. said.”
So which is it? They WANT to sell but are being restricted by the agreement in order to support the gold price? OR, they are reluctantly agreeing to sell a specific amount of gold that they otherwise would not be inclined to do in order to meet some other unstated goal? Clearly the gold price doesn’t need support and it appears there is a reluctance to sell.
I suspect the title “Gold Agreement” is a misnomer. We shall see in the next few years.
The Times
April 18, 2008
Morgan Stanley predicts one in ten homeowners ‘facing negative equity’
“…Morgan Stanley predicts that 1.2 million people will be in negative equity, owing more money on their mortgage than their home is worth — levels not seen since the early 1990s.
Those affected cannot move house easily unless they raise finance elsewhere to pay off their home loan. They must either stay put and pay their mortgage bills, or sell at a loss.
First-time owners will be particularly badly affected. Five per cent took out a loan of 100 per cent or more of the purchase price of a property last year. Morgan Stanley also suggests that if house prices fall by 25 per cent over the next two years, more than two million — or a quarter of all borrowers — would be in negative equity. …”
http://tinyurl.com/3vp6o7
timesonline
Who was it sang, “Ain’t That a Shame?” After enduring ridicule for a couple of years, I finally am talking to people at random who are very, very interested in my thoughts about the housing market. All I have to do is tell them what I’ve learned here and you’d think I was Will Rogers. What a change.
Fats Domino.
Is It Time to Buy Real Estate?
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104860/Is-It-Time-to-Buy-Real-Estate
“If you wait till the economy turns around, the interest rates may not be as favorable, nor in all probability will there be as much inventory,” says Schwartz.
She feels it’s hard to predict when the market will bottom out, just as you can’t predict when a stock has “bottomed out” until it has started to rise again.
Homes are starting to sell because prices have been lowered, but Kaiser doesn’t anticipate home prices dropping much more. Interest rates are also dropping, and that is changing consumers’ outlook.
“Molony projects that home prices will stay flat this year, but 2009 will lead back to more normal market conditions with prices rising 3.1 percent.”
Very optimiaitc predictions. I don’t see prices going up for at least 5 more years if that.
It’s always time to buy, if you like the idea of 3/4 of your income going as interest payments to banks!
Schwartz is a real estate broker. Total waste of time to read that stuff, IMO.
Housing prices DO NOT turn quickly. You’ll know that we’re at the bottom when Case-Shiller for your area has been roughly flat for 4-6 months.
…or even a couple of years.
Perhaps a naive question here… What role does the faucet vs. sink model have on the stock market. With huge amounts of $$ constantly flowing into the market from your everyman stock retirement plan (faucet) and $$ flowing out to retirees (sink), I would think that the recent housing-induced flight from retirement might force the market upwards. If 65+’ers are afraid to retire and thus delay selling their portfolios (as I’ve frequently heard reported) does it leave excess $$ in the market? I’ve never heard any discussion of the equilibrium between “new money in” and “old money out” but it seems relavant here. I should say that I’m no economist, so go easy if that was a ridiculous question.
I think this will be a major long-term factor. The problem most people face is that no other “traditional” investments can even hope to keep up with inflation so they stay in the market. In the long run inflation will cause people to sell their stocks because they cannot live on the “interest” returned. With the job market shrinking you should see a reduction in 401K contributions.
Another problem that my parents have recently run up against is Long Term Capital Gains and the Alternative Minimum Tax. Anyone who has held stocks for years and experienced significant gain is unable to react to market changes because as soon as they sell they push themselves into the AMT which will cost them 10’s of thousands of dollars more in taxes and an effective 32-35% tax bracket with no significant deductions allowed. The capital gains get taxed at 22.5% instead of 15%. Anyone who is aware of this tax faces significant static resistance to selling their shares in response to legitimate market concerns.
Tax differed tax retirement plans are a TRAP! The people who setup the system knew that the time would come when the dollar would be worthless and they needed to lock in as much retirement money as possible.
I’ve been saying all along that tax deferred plans are good only for income producing assets like CDs. Keep your growth and divident (under the current rules) stocks in your after-tax accounts.
“Tax differed tax retirement plans are a TRAP! The people who setup the system knew that the time would come when the dollar would be worthless and they needed to lock in as much retirement money as possible.”
It’s always nice to hear your own thoughts reflected by somebody else. This has always been my opinion. And already having control over most retirement savings, the powers that be are licking their chops at the prospect of getting their hands on Social Security money. Talk of privatization and worry over failure of the system is just an pretext to enable Wall Street to get its hands on that massive stockpile of dollars.
But VTD, I gotta ask - what’s the alternative? Where else can you put your money? As discussed further up the thread, there often isn’t much choice in how the money gets invested. I know a lot of folks I’ve talked with don’t necessarily want their money in the market, but they don’t want to pass up the matching funds from their companies. So they end up contributing the max, just to get the matching dough, and taking whatever crap they get saddled with. Yeah, you could avoid it entirely and invest on your own without the company plan, but with losing the matching funds would you be any better off? Maybe if you are extremely savvy, but for the average joe probably not…
So folks are finally waking up to the fact that 401k’s are a scam? You don’t say……..
I think most people are aware, just like they are aware that the major political parties are broken. It’s just that the viable alternatives are not as obvious as the dysfunction…
Change companies once, roll over to more flexible IRA, then who cares (relatively) about new contributions. You have made money through the matching anyway.
Are you staying for the pension?
I’m very skeptical about all the tax deferred plans…
That said, what about Roth IRAs, Roth 401ks for younger investors?
I personally believe that tax rates are going up, so for me, paying my tax today, and not being required to pay any tax in the future on gains over a 30-35 year period seems pretty attractive.
This is an interesting discussion. I don’t understand why retirees would be cashing out more than the amount they need for daily expenses, so to speak. The ones I know don’t. What level of such cash-out would it take to trigger AMT for a retiree who has just Social Security and maybe a modest pension as their regular income?
From the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School newsletter (”Knowledge @Wharton”):
Was Bear Stearns actually brought down by stock manipulation?
“When Bear Stearns collapsed in March, some insiders argued it was wrong to blame the firm’s risky bets on mortgaged-backed securities. They had another culprit: malevolent traders working together in the upside-down world of short sales — making money by knocking down Bear’s stock…”
“Malevolent traders” lol
Bear Stearns was toast as soon as it burned its customers last year. Just a question of when.
Supposedly they have tried to do the same thing with Lehman.
I think I was the only one on here who was buying BSC stock that morning and admitting it at the time. Just wish I’d held on for the full ride.
Oil is getting choppy, a lot of smoke and noise for only .60 over yesterdays intraday high.
I was day trading and it taught me a great lesson. I am the worst day trader in history.
Don’t feel bad. The day I picked to get my feet wet in it was last Friday (Dow -250).
Shorted goog
Humboldt dreaming. In Eureka:
For sale by the bank (?) and asking $262,000
01/10/2008: $190,218 Foreclosed
11/25/1998: $121,000
Check out the interior… http://tinyurl.com/4or2ng
Austin home sales dip.
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/realestate/04/18//0418homesales.html
Seems like there is a lot of inventory in Austin now - they keep saying it’s different here - but I think that just means Austin is late.
I guess I should start reading the American-Statesman again.
I’m with you, masstexodus. But I am surprised how often I hear “it’s different here” - not just in RE promotion stuff, but from neighbors and friends, real people whose opinions I ordinarily respect.
You see this gem:
Sprague said. “Everybody is scared to death to make a decision to sell their home.”
The good news, he said, is that “we’ll be out of this at the end of the year, barring a catastrophic event.”
Yep, that magic “second half of the year turnaround” that everyone keeps talking about. I guess those $600 rebate checks will save the housing market. Read the full story - Austin peaked in 2006 and still isn’t doing that bad right now (2008). What exactly does he think by “Turn Around” - get back to “prices ALWAYS go up, sales ALWAYS go up” and set a new record above 2006?
Downtown Austin RE site tempers its boosterism a bit in today’s market analysis.
http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/index.html
Inventory up, sales down, prices down, there may have been a central Austin price bubble after all, it may pop, condo developers may experience “negative pressure” - but fortunately, “Austin’s buzz has never been hotter.”
Buzz don’t pay the rent. Or the mortage, taxes, condo fee etc …
Why, you sound un-trendy, masstexodus.
Personally, I don’t know how I could get up in the morning without Austin’s hot buzz. If I lived in someplace where the buzz wasn’t hot, like Oshkosh or Omaha or Tulsa, I guess I would just have to shoot myself.
Million dollars for this business in Humboldt. Really, really remote California on Hwy 36. Cute Outpost. But a million?
http://photos1.adaptiverealestate.com/photos_1/224819_1.jpg
I just don’t get it. I really don’t.
Roidy
P.S. There was a carwash for sale here (N. Louisiana) at $1 Million. I don’t know what it actually sold for.
Hi everyone,
I’m a longtime lurker here and have learned so much from everyone. So thank you all. I have a question I’d like to ask. I have a background in chemical engineering and am going back to school to get my MBA in supply chain management this fall. I’m concerned that the downturn in the US economy could be pretty severe. It seems like everyone I know is either living with their parents and looking for work (among recent college grads, especially in liberal arts) or looking to hold onto their jobs, or going back to school like me. Does anyone have any suggestions about what industries would be good to go into with a supply chain background for the coming economic times? Thanks!
Food hoarding. IMO.
The coming economic crisis will force many big box retails to retool completely. No more shipping goods all over the country, stuff will be procured more locally, or conversely, smaller mom and pop shops will increase in popularity because they don’t have to pay for the trucks/trailers.
Supply chain is not a good specialty. International business will get you much further. Even information systems is better than supply chain.
Thanks for the comment, Moman. Is there any chance you could give me some idea why specifically you think supply chain is not a good specialty? I get the impression that it is becoming ever more recognized as a core business function. And my original intention is to do supply chain for an industrial manufacturing or pharmaceuticals company and not necessarily retail or grocery stores. Thanks again!
The problem with supply chain - it’s market is very limited. I looked into doing the B.S.-Business with Supply Chain specialty…..the only companies that were hiring were retailers and trucking companies. They are the largest shippers of good destined for the end users (aside from UPS, FedEx, and DHL). It may be recognized as a core business function, but my recommendation would be to do International Business and take a couple supply chain classes so you can speak the language ‘fluently’. There is something to be said about not pigeon-holing your carrer, and if you go for supply chain, my bet is that’s all you’ll ever be considered is a supply chainer, and trust me, you don’t want to work for Walmart.
As always, do your own research and come to your own conclusion. FYI - My undergrad is in MIS and my masters is Economics…no one would consider me for anything other than IT mgmt, but getting the econ degree has opened up so many doors. My PhD will be econ too.
Good luck friend.
Can you major in “Black Market Entrepreneurship”?
Can you major in “Black Market Entrepreneurship”?
yes on Ebay
Just read this in a “Dear Dr. Don” column at Bankrate, by a writer who is ticked that he can’t get his PMI removed unless a current appraisal is done:
“What makes this particularly annoying is I could have had the appraisal done a year ago when home values were higher…”
Well, no sh*t, Sherlock! I’d never have the patience to respond politely to a question like that.
Out of the hundred or so corporate layoffs this week - this one is bizarre.
Nonprofit AIPSO laying off 8 employees
01:00 AM EDT on Wednesday, April 16, 2008
By Paul Edward Parker
Journal Staff Writer
A Johnston company that manages the automobile insurance assigned-risk pool for more than three dozen states has laid off eight workers as the number of drivers signing up for assigned-risk insurance has dropped sharply….”
Providence Journal
http://tinyurl.com/5ggerz
I opine that people are driving without insurance. No facts, just a hunch.
A IPSO facto.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA
Livermore Lab announced plans Tuesday to lay off up to 535 of its core employees, including some scientists and engineers, starting as early as mid-May. This will be the first involuntary layoffs from the permanent, career work-force in 35 years
Don’t touch my liver, my bloated, swollen liver
I don’t think it’ll understand
But if you touch my liver, my bloated swollen liver
it might blow up and kill this man!
whooo
I think it is past time to drop the comprehensive and collision on my pickup. 2003 ranger, base model. blue book say $4500. I paid $7K for it 3.5 years ago.
I’ve got a 96 subaru but I am such a clutz there’s no way to do without comprehensive. I was thinking about dropping it right before pulling the left bumper off the front backing out of the garage…
Self-insure for things like that. Insurance isn’t magic, the companies make profit.
In grade school we had history books that had a charicture of a Florida land speculator in 1926 standing up to his waist in a swamp holding a SOLD sign. I never realized I would be living in the middle of this and now my grandkids will see the same cartoon with 2005 on it.
As the housing market continues to tumble so do the housing related jobs:
Sub-Zero/Wolf of Fitchburg, a manufacturer of high-end refrigeration and cooking appliances, will lay off 235 employees at its plants in Fitchburg,WI and Phoenix, Ariz.
Next Stainless then the infamous granite.
How about lowering their friggin outrageous prices and perhaps selling more product in addition to the layoffs? Might that help?
Oil hits $116 after Nigerian pipeline attack
NEW YORK (AP) — Retail gas prices set new records Friday on their seemingly relentless march toward $3.50 a gallon, and diesel prices pushed further above $4 a gallon.
Oil futures, meanwhile, surged to a new record over $116 a barrel after a militant group in Nigeria said it had sabotaged a major oil pipeline operated by a Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture and promised further attacks on the country’s petroleum industry.
At the pump, the national average price of regular gas rose 2.7 cents overnight to a record $3.445 a gallon, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Diesel fuel added 2.2 cents to a record national average of $4.168 a gallon.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/18/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008041811
This was pretty big news around my parts yesterday. They cut pretty deep going all the way the back to people hired after 1996.
Volvo idles 1,100 workers at U.S. truck plant
Fri Apr 18, 2008 5:51am EDT
STOCKHOLM, April 18 (Reuters) - World number two truck maker
Volvo (VOLVb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday it
was sending home more than a third of workers at its New
River Valley plant in Virginia due to weak U.S. demand for
heavy-duty trucks.
A Volvo spokesman said 1,100 of 2,900 employees at the
factory, which turns out Volvo and Mack-branded trucks,
would be left idle to adapt to market conditions.
“We will leave 1,100 employees idle there for a period,”
Volvo’s Marten Wikforss said.
Volvo has had to contend with a sharp contraction of the
U.S. heavy-duty truck market over the past year. In early
2007, the market plunged, a hangover from a buying spree of
older but cheaper trucks ahead of new emission rules.
A recovery was originally seen during the second half of
last year, but the U.S. mortgage crisis and ensuing credit
crunch has in recent months hit the already meagre demand,
delaying any pick-up in sales.
“We have previously said that we would adjust to market
demand. We have said that the whole time and now we are
doing it,” Wikforss said.
The New River Valley plant was hit by a labour strike in
February, halting production there for more than a month.
A three-year wage deal was reached in mid-March at which
time Volvo said it would begin ramping up production to 146
trucks per day. Wikforss would not say what production rate
the company was now planning.
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSL1827213420080418
If you want to understand why Barney Frank is pushing the real estate policies he does, check out who gives him money
And if you were wondering why Chris Dodd is pushing the real estate polices he does, check out who’s giving him money.
Barney Frank is at it again. It’s up to 300 billion.
Anybody heard the new R.E.M.? I like it.
Ok, earlier this week I complained about no totals for NYC job losses…here’s a start. And, estimates of 100-200k in commercial banks nationwide.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-wallstreet-layoffs.html
Whopper: Avg. price of Manh. real estate up 41%
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080417/FREE/492870967/1059
Not for long! lol
Can anyone tell me what happened to two of my favourite posters, ByeFL and Anne Scott?
I could see that they were getting a bit of much-deserved flack, and I’d love to see their final dummy-spit.
Bye FL on his way to NW PA?