Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Lower prices? “Home prices in New York’s Long Island suburbs fell in the first quarter from a year ago and the number of properties for sale rose. ‘The market is certainly weaker than it’s been in the last couple of years,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of New York- based Miller Samuel. ‘It’s not subprime, it’s credit in general. Any time you place a restriction on credit, in this case tighter underwriting standards, you restrict the flow of sales activity.’”
Builder pullbacks? “One of the nation’s largest new home builders has decided to pull out of the entire mid-Atlantic region because of poor market performance. KB Home officials said the move will help it hold onto cash reserves and ride out the housing crash.”
“‘We evaluated market performance in the area and we had to make the decision to focus on areas that will allow us to grow our business and profits, given the current conditions in the real estate market,’ said Lindsay Stephenson, a KB Home spokeswoman.. ‘We informed our employees and homebuyers on March 6 that we made the difficult decision not to invest in additional communities in the area and to make a gradual transition out of the market.’”
“A California-based home builder that has offices and developments across the region is pulling out of the Greater Cincinnati market. Ryland Homes, which built 183 homes last year in the region, plans to begin winding down its Cincinnati operations this year and close up shop by 2009.”
“‘We have made the difficult but necessary decision not to invest in additional communities in Cincinnati due to ongoing sluggish conditions in the local housing market,’ said Pete Skelly, president of Ryland Homes’ North/West region.”
Employment fallout? “Economists believe Hawaii’s construction industry will experience a soft landing, but that’s no consolation to hundreds of laid off workers unable to find jobs.”
“Ron Taketa, the financial secretary and business representative for the Hawaii Carpenters Union says the change has been profound from just a year ago. ‘Last year we probably had 75 to 100 members on the bench,’ said Taketa. ‘As of today we probably have 900 here on Oahu (without work).’”
Failed projects? “After more than two years of marketing, a condominium converter has hired Inland Real Estate Auctions Inc. to sell 293 unsold units in a large apartment complex in the far northern suburbs. A large sale of so many unsold units in a condo conversion project, sometimes called a ‘reversion conversion, is rare in the Chicago market.”
“An investor group led by Palos Hills-based Capital Acquisitions paid about $38 million for the development in August 2005, with plans for a quick conversion of the rental project.”
“But Stanley Smagala, president of Capital Acquisitions, now candidly predicts that the for-sale housing market will take several years to recover. ‘It’s going to take two years before we find out what’s going on, three years before the values start going up again,’ he said.”
Stretched buyers? “Fort Myers Realtor Denny Grimes took over the sale process of the 116 residences left at the gated community at the north end of Del Prado, and within two weeks he had all of them under contract. ‘It was a liquidation sale,’ Grimes said. ‘We sold all of them; we’re working on financing the last house.’”
“The homes Grimes listed started as low as $86,000 for town houses and $133,000 for single-family homes.”
“Buyer Larry Torpy and his wife Terri were looking for a second home in Florida and heard about the sale. The couple currently has a house on the market in Hawaii and wanted a place that would serve as a warm-weather getaway now and a retirement home in the future.”
“‘We had never been to Cape Coral,’ Torpy said.”
“‘We checked out other places,’ Torpy said. ‘Every time we came back to Coral Lakes, more houses had been sold. It seems like we got more bang for the buck in Coral Lakes.’”
“The couple settled on a single-family home and have already made plans to upgrade the kitchen counters and install ceiling fans. Furniture, though, will have to wait for awhile. ‘Our first piece of furniture will be an air mattress,’ he said.”
whoop!
Your supposed to say first…
LOL. That was pretty mellow, Ben.
For those of you that miss the trolls, here’s one from California this morning:
‘Have you people considered the possibility that while you are waiting with fat down payments in hand, tongues hanging out and a puddle of drool on the floor waiting for prices to fall so that you can consummate your desires, the recession / depression will take out your incomes forcing you to use the fat down payments to feed your families?’
These dopey trolls must be specuvestors. For you drowning specuvestors, I have a bulletin for ya. Everyones down payment is rapidly turning into a paid in full sum so please do stay anchored to your fantasy prices.
Exactly. It’s turning into a paid in cash kinda game while they are paying interest, taxes, insurance on a depreciating asset, and hoping-praying-please-sweet-baby-Jeebus that the gubmint will bail them out.
The delusion will take a while to evaporate.
Faster, thats gotta be an awful place to be positioned. Contrast that with $1000/week going into a savings account which inturn is rolled into laddered CD’s. Dry powder ready to load with a specuvestor in my crosshairs.
I’m loving every minute of this.
No kiddin’.
I’m even willing to bet that at the end of this nonsense there will be far better places for my cash than a house.
Yep. I’m a founding member of the, “I Don’t Give a Flying F-ck if I Ever Buy Again Club”.
I’m not saving for a down payment on anything except maybe my down payment on a happy and prosperous life. While these dip$hits sit there watching their lives roll by while they worry about living paycheck to paycheck. Bwahaha, you buttholes!
“I’m even willing to bet that at the end of this nonsense there will be far better places for my cash than a house.”
“Yep. I’m a founding member of the, “I Don’t Give a Flying F-ck if I Ever Buy Again Club”.
And I would strongly agree…..I , along with most readers here will have plenty of options.If I dont like what I see as far as prices, interest rates, where I want to buy then I’ll just spend my cash elsewhere.
‘I , along with most readers here will have plenty of options.’
To me, that’s the ‘consumation of my desires’.. well, one of them, haw haw. Anyway, that there be OPTIONS. And that one of those options is buying a house at a reasonable rate, a house that is well-built in a good community, and not some hastily slapped up crapmound that may as well be situated on the mythic freakin’ Plains of Leng, it’s so far away from work, and friends, and the nearest dive bar with a good live band and cheap beer.
As it happens, I already have a mortgage, it’s affordable, and I love where I live, and I’m wild with enthusiasm for my town, Olympia. It’s like I went to heaven, but didn’t have to die or be good, which is super, because I don’t want to do either one of those things.
So, for me, housing becoming affordable is not a personal drooling moment, it’s a drooling moment when I consider that a return of sanity means there could be wetlands and forests left alive and unpaved, and houses built properly, to last, and nice little families living nice little unhurried lives in nice little houses.
Errrrr … where does one even start with this moron?
If you need the downpayment to feed your family, imagine the plight of the people who don’t even have that cushion.
Oh, wait! They’ll have HELOCs except they don’t. They’ll have credit cards except they don’t.
Crikey! Somebody Taser him, quick!!!
It’s wisdom like this that helps me get through my day surrounded by everyone on the planet wishing and thinking it was still the summer of 2005.
It is a very sad state of the world that what I stated above is considered as “wisdom”.
It should be freakin’ obvious.
“the recession / depression will take out your incomes forcing you to use the fat down payments to feed your families?’
At least we’ll be able to feed our families. I’d rather be cashed up before and economic downturn than up to my eyeballs in debt.
Vmaxer, that was my first thought too - at least our family would be fed. We aren’t termites - we can’t eat a house.
Sounds like a great argument not to buy. Thanks!
Could that be … a bitter owner?
a bitter realitter
Well time out, I don’t exactly agree with what he says but I have had thoughts on similar lines. Let’s say I have a bunch of money sitting around and I’m waiting for prices to drop etc, but instead along come high rates of inflation, say 8 or 10 percent a year, would it have been better to have bought the house or not? Because in that case (assuming wage inflation occurs), I’m basically getting an 8-10% per year discount on the house. But I only get that discount if I bought the house. If I am sitting on cash the cash is just devaluing. Thoughts on that?
With Chindia online?
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Bingo. The global wage arbitrage has succeeded in keeping wages and salaries low. Can’t export the high wage job? Import labor from south of the border. If you had to bet out of these tow scenarios;
1) Wages will increase 2-3x to meet historical price/wage ratio
or
2) Prices will fall to meet historical price/wage ratio
Whats it gonna be Alfie?
After houses fall another 30%, it will be better to have bought the house. Assuming, of course, that you still have an income or savings to service the mortgage. If we do see wage inflation, you’ll see layoffs that will make your head spin. The only reason that so many companies are still barely profitable is the real wage deflation we have seen for the last seven or eight years. Even small companies are outsourcing now, in an environment with stable wages. Low-end Indian and Chinese outsourcing companies are now targeting US companies with as few as five employees. Some are even targeting individuals - you can now hire a personal assistant in India that will arrange your dry cleaning, appointments, and dog walking services:
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/103092/Outsourcing-Your-Life
I’m not sure I follow how owning a house will be a hedge against wage deflation…? Maybe I’m misunderstanding what you wrote.
I can think of a *million* arguments why renting is better if there is wage inflation…unless you already have an old mortgage and can now pay it off in inflated dollars.
I have an English friend who has had all his secretarial work done in india for the past two years. He pays a couple hundred a month.
Well, maybe in a couple of years I’ll hire a local ‘homeowner’ to do my secretarial work, cheap.
Maybe the giant McMansion crapbox on the corner (looks like aliens teleported it in from the suburbs and dropped it in our little neighborhood, vaporizing a 100-year old tree in the process) will be inhabited by a commune of creative slackers who I could barter with to get help with house and yard work. They might be able to improve the looks of that cookie-cutter place, and the enormous garage would make a great workshop of some sort.
And just how would that senario be different if I had to pay a mortgage on a depreciating asset?
“‘Have you people considered the possibility that while you are waiting with fat down payments in hand, tongues hanging out and a puddle of drool on the floor waiting for prices to fall so that you can consummate your desires, the recession / depression will take out your incomes forcing you to use the fat down payments to feed your families?’”
And if that happens, you would be better off had you bought a house?
That is exactly what I was thinking.
Not to mention that the houseowner won’t be able to move to relocate to find a job, but the renter can generally move wherever and whenever s/he wants.
I think that the implication is that if we all go out and buy a house that the depression won’t arrive. Wishful thinking.
‘the recession / depression will take out your incomes forcing you to use the fat down payments’
I thought this blog was supposed to prepare us for that. I should of never saved any money.
Long Island sellers still live in a fantasy, that’s it’s 2005. Although, asking prices have come down some, most are still dreaming of finding a spring sucker to pay their high price. Some of these houses I’ve seen listed for over a year. I expect June is when desperation starts to set in. These sellers are like the losers who won’t leave at the end of a party. Their drunk and won’t accept that the party is over.
Ohhh, that hurts. Now I’ve been compared to a seller.
Where are you looking vmax? I’ve seen prices come down.
Mostly north shore. I see a lot of $500k houses that should be $350k and $400k houses that should be $300k. Especially, when you consider local wages and property taxes($10,000/yr). I’d estimate that actual selling prices have come down about 10%. Still about 15 - 20 % overvalued.
Well the wages on long Island are as high or higher than most parts of CA. That may not last because of wall street and the economy. Remember very few jobs on LI are real estate related so prices will come down much slower than other areas. I would say good areas on the S. shore are down 15%, avg. areas 20% and the rest 30%. The north shore is like the bay area, of CA. It will take awhile.
I get exasperated every time I see the term “auction.” Personally, if something is for sale and there is an undisclosed reserve (minimum) price below which it will not be sold, then it is not an auction. It is a stir-up-some-interest alternative to the open houses that didn’t work, the “My pain, your gain” advertising that didn’t work, etc.
There are only three related events that I would consider reading about relative to an interest in buying: an absolute auction, a reserve auction with the reserve price clearly noted in all advertising, and a Dutch auction. In the latter case, I’d just watch and wait for the right price, like a ‘gator in the reeds.
Dutch auctions are very cool and a lot more likely to reveal the real so-called “market value” and could even be to the sellers advantage, if they have a good reserve price and a pair of steel balls.
I like how the sales commission at auctions has become 10% (buyers premium) instead of the real estate 6% and is paid by the buyer, not the seller.
Recommend reading all the fine print on these. If it works like art auctions, for example, the commission is paid by the buyer AND the seller. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that were true for many or most non-government RE auctions.
“Buyer Larry Torpy and his wife Terri were looking for a second home in Florida and heard about the sale. The couple currently has a house on the market in Hawaii and wanted a place that would serve as a warm-weather getaway now and a retirement home in the future.”
“‘We had never been to Cape Coral,’ Torpy said.”
__________________________
Obviously no one told the Torpys that one out of every four dwellings in Lee County is empty. If they fell for the “paradise” line, they soon will learn that they should have stayed in Hawaii.
The Torpys got torpedo’ed.
Initially, I read that as the Topsys and you said torpedo’ed which I thought didn’t work, should have been with my fuzzy vision, The Topsys got Turvied..
Never mind..hehe
….The couple currently has a house on the market in Hawaii and wanted a place that would serve as a warm-weather getaway”……..
Hawaii isn’t one of those??
cape coral is the biggest sht hole in fl that I’ve seen
highest vacancy over the last 20 years - weird to fly over
Prices on LI are too high compared to salaries. We’ve considered going back to LI, but the job offers are coming in tens of thousands of dollars lower than Boston.
A couple of years ago Newsday ran an article about how Northrup Grumman can’t retain any of their engineers because salaries are too low. Starting pay for engineers is something like $50K. Seems kind of low for a job where you have to pee in a cup. The company reported that over 25% of their workers still live at home with their parents. Northrup is planning to locate their new HQ in Suffolk, it will be interesting to see what kind of workers they will be able to get.
I’m one of nine cousins who grew up on LI, all of us went to college, several of us went to graduate school. Two of the nine decided to stay, of those two, only one has a professional position and earns enough to live independently.
One thing I will say about LI is that they have some of the best beaches anywhere. The shoreline is still fairly fairly pristine because they haven’t allowed much industry in. However, this lack of development has come at a pretty steep price.
Lack of development isn’t so bad.
High taxes all around (income, property, sales), corrupt party machine government, high costs of doing business (rents, utilities, fuel prices)? Pretty damned bad.
My salary would have to be doubled before I would consider thinking of moving back to the NYC metro area. I would need to be able to afford a 1000sqft 1BR apt within 20 minutes of my office for 25% of my _take home_ before I would consider it. Holding my breath? Not anymore!!
No it really isn’t. We never worried about what was in the drinking water or air. Water is also a lot cheaper there, since there is no need for treatment plants and everyone has septic systems. However, not all of LI is like the little North Shore town I grew up in.
I saw a renovated 3BR, 2BA co-op in Kew Gardens, Queens, in a pre-war building on Forest Park yesterday. Perhaps 1200 sf with a slightly awkward layout, the unit, except for the kitchen and baths, was not renovated to a high standard–certainly not a patch on the renovations being done at the nearby Talbot Gardens, which are hugely expensive. Two of the main rooms fronted Union Turnpike, which is busy night and day. Maintenance was in excess of 1K a month; sound bled terribly from the apartment above. Most interestingly, though the apartment is listed on one agency’s site at 530K, the realtor–from another agency–who showed the unit to me quoted a price of 450K. It’s a sponsor unit requiring 10% down, no board approval. I think it’s way premature to buy, so I made no offer, but my sense is that things are definitely heading south in this outer borough.
Those areas are going to get Tasered.
My next door neighbor has a 2br 2ba that rents for $3500 on the UWS.
You’re talking Kew Gardens. Gimme a freakin’ break.
$1K maintenance?!? Sound bleed? $450K?
BWAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Faster–
Yes, I agree, these areas are going to get tasered. What gobsmacks me is that prices haven’t gone done more and faster. I agree that mid to high six figures for Kew Gardens or Forest Hills apartments can be swallowed only with Kool Aid. Do you have any thoughts as to when Queens prices will tank?
I know someone trying to rent a similar apt in Harlem and can’t do it for over 3,000 - interesting times!
I know someone trying to rent a similar apt in Harlem and can’t do it for over 3,000 - no one is interested - rents are going to come way down I think when all these condo buildings revert to rentals too.
The most telling sign of the times is Bruce Ratner’s gutting of his Brooklyn stadium / apt tower project (now it’ll be just a stadium, if that) because both commercial and residential mkts are sagging.
If you’re planning to rent for “more than $3,000″, and nobody’s biting then the rent is not “more than $3,000″.
That, plus, you’re losing a crapload each month. That is not a sustainable situation.
I’ll bet you could rent that for 1/2 of owning it….what would the rent be $2500 a month?
Earplugs are extra though. Oh say a Bose per household member?
We are moving up to a nicer rental, and there has never been a better time to rent in Pullman, WA. Even two years ago it was almost impossible to find a nice rental and now the rental agencies are bending over backwards to cut deals.
Anyhow, we were touring a few rentals on Friday and the woman showing us around asked if I was selling my house.
No, I replied, we don’t own… why do you ask?
“We are getting a lot of renters lately who are selling their houses to cash out before the market crashes.”
The inventory has almost doubled relative to last year and the hissing sound out of Pullman is growing louder by the week!
“We are getting a lot of renters lately who are selling their houses to cash out before the market crashes.”
A little late for that, don’t you think?
“We are getting a lot of renters lately who are selling their houses to cash out before the market crashes.”
It’s a rush for the exits. Even the most dimwitted types are talking about the crash.
It is certainly a rush for the exits, but with inventory double last year’s peak and sales collapsing, most won’t make it out in time.
Gonna be a lot of pumpkins this fall…
‘The inventory has almost doubled relative to last year and the hissing sound out of Pullman is growing louder by the week!’
So, how is Spokane doing then?
Sorry, I really haven’t tracked Spokane. I think it is safe to say all of the Northwest if finally leaving the party. Seattle and Portland will probably fall faster/first, then the places farther from the coast will be dragged down in their wake.
They’re really getting desperate to sell here in Wisconsin. There is a bottom and I see it’s getting closer. FREE PACKER TICKETS ..a once in a lifetime here on this one …Oh Boy
A decent looking house, fully furnished and a sauna for a $199k asking with a bunch of FREE Packer Tickets …Wow! And Flat sceens … Party time …I’m Commming !
http://greenbay.craigslist.org/rfs/646324412.html
This guy is about leaving everything behind to get out out of the COLD.
Cool, if he leaving behind an extra cute 22-26 yr old girlfriend that’s into crazy old guys to sweeten the deal and a kegger of beer I might pack my mittens and drive up and lowball him for fun
http://greenbay.craigslist.org/rfs/646324412.html
Ooops!…My lttle red Maserati only gets 11 mpg at 112 mph and gasoline is $3.57…
Rats…Where is my gas siphon hose and my landlords Yukon when I really NEED them
I wonder what the gas and electric bill is per month in the winter. Didn’t it just snow a foot there this week? My gas and electric bill combined is only 65$ per month and I’ve got Prop 13. Too bad I’ve also got the Terminator who doesn’t know squat about economics.
Speaking of 11mpg, this evening, guy zoomed past me on hwy 111 in his Lamborghini, probably trying to “flex” but as I drove all the way home, this Gas Sucker sucked behind slow traffic for 20 miles. I had to laugh, cause, WHY buy a gas guzzler that looks good but you can’t drive it anywhere to get the juice going?
Guys, can you expound?
All I could think of while he was idling next to me or behind, or in front was $4.00 per gallon and lousy in bed.
Well, really. Why have the thing if you don’t have the other working…ya know?
Nice looking car thought, but couldn’t go fast.
As we say out here in the boonies, all hat and no cattle…which reminds me, where’s ByeFl these days?
(just wonderin’…anybody seen him around Oil City?)
Hey, you’re right. Where’s Byefl? Bye? Bye?
Maybe he’s out learning how to sin. Like, he shouted ‘H-e-double toothpicks!’ in a moment of anger, or called his brother ‘Raka, thou fool’. Or he is talking to girls and furtively eyeing their bosoms. Or he’s thinking about touching a bottle of beer, and even without gloves on, and to drink it later.
I hope so, because it’s about damn time.
ROFL!!!
Sorry, sounds like sour grapes to me. Although I’m no lover of Lambo’s (not a single LeMans win), there’s nothing inherently wrong with owning a hot rod. The one downside being that those without one won’t readily admit that if they hit the Lotto tomorrow, their stable would have at least one impractical muscle car.
The people buying in Cape Coral will soon find its nothing like paradise. My guess is they ran out of money to fly out to Hawaii. The Florida home will also drain their bank account but in ways they don’t expect.
A friend in Portland a month ago put his house on the market for 725K (”the bottom end of the price range”), explaining that a smaller, nearby house sold for 700K - last year.
It’s looks like it is going to be a long summer…
He won’t even get one showing…
From one town downbeach from Atlantic City: I don’t get a paper delivered; not having one on the doorstep forces me to get up, get going down to the local Qwickimart. I also don’t resent paying a little premium for the few staples I pick up there. There are two brothers from Pakistan and their wives, one of whom is always at the register. Anyway, just an off the top f my head calculation; within the past month, the number of For Sale signs has really skyrocketed, I would say double the number there was one year ago, at least one house on each block. Local rag had a realtor’s ad with the come on, “The Market Is Back!” I don’t think so.
An area I have been watching apparently has another investor in trouble.
http://flagstaff.craigslist.org/rfs/636513488.html
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/636523599.html
Notice 2 different listings and two different prices.
“I own three homes in this community, and I am selling one.”
” I would NOT be selling this home, but personal circumstances have forced me too”
” Common area adjacent to this home has plans for a clubhouse, pool, sports court, barbecues…etc”
Replace “has” with “had”.Kinda like the condo complex that has the pool coming in phaseII.
“This home is in phase one of a 221 home development”
I missed this tract when I was there recently. He bought the model.Wonder how many of the 221 lots got built ?
To some that price may sound good but thats way over priced for that area just like most .
There are mnay areas up there just like this one where builders just bailed.
To top it off its an ugly house anyway…….
The exterior of this house is so ugly/plain old box that even a five year old could put that together with blocks. And it costs adults too much for ugly. Blech
In NM there seems to be two types of sellers right now. The ones who are actually selling and list their place at a reasonable (compared to rent & wages) price and .. guess what .. they sell fairly fast! Then there are the sellers who think they are going to get $850K for a dinky dark adobe and have had it listed for 10 months. And if you are unlucky to speak with such a seller and are brave enough to ask about price they all seem certain that some special person will come along and decide they can’t live without it. Or, worse yet, that the Lord will send someone to buy their house because they need the money. I’m no expert but I am fairly certain the Lord does not work that way.
Anyone post this story? It was all over Canadian news this week. Its a start, tho denial that it will happen here as badly as it has in the States remains the party line.
Canada’s housing boom likely over
Existing home sales tumble 13 per cent
By THE CANADIAN PRESS
A long line of homes boast for sale signs in Calgary. The average price for a house in the city has dropped below $400,000. (Sun Media file photo)
Listings lasting longer
OTTAWA - Existing homes sales tumbled 13 per cent for the first three months of the year compared to last year and the resale market has become “more balanced” for the first time in nearly a decade, prompting one analyst to call the end of Canada’s hot housing market.
“Canada’s six-year housing market boom is officially over,” Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said in response to the January-March survey released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
“Aside from a few choice Prairie locales, sales are melting faster than this year’s snow pack,” Porter said in a note.
“You know things are calming down quickly when the Canadian Real Estate Association says that the market is ‘more balanced compared to’ any other quarter over the past nine years”
Porter said some of the previous hot markets, such as Calgary and Edmonton, have witnessed “spectacular declines in activity.”
In Calgary, residential home sales slid 35.9 per cent or by 6,354 units during the quarter while new listings jumped 29.8 per cent, or by 16,794 units. Edmonton’s residential sales were also down, 29.8 per cent (4,071 units), and new listings were up 52.1 per cent (11,228 units).
CREA said that seasonally adjusted sales activity was down 7.1 per cent to 81,747 units in the quarter, compared to the previous quarter, which was the fourth-highest sales period ever.
The group said much of the slide was tied to lower activity in Toronto during February and March, because the city accounts for about a quarter of the country’s come sales in major markets.
Toronto saw its residential unit sales drop 13.4 per cent (17,721 units), though new listings were also down by seven per cent (36,885 units).
“Many major markets are becoming more balanced and price gains are becoming more modest as a result. This trend is forecast to continue, as rising mortgage carrying costs and property taxes erode affordability,” CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said.
Other cities that saw large drops in sales in the first quarter include Vancouver, where sales slid 9.6 per cent, Winnipeg was down 7.7 per cent and Halifax fell 14.2 per cent.
Of the areas surveyed, sales were only up in Newfoundland by 14.3 per cent and Thunder Bay, Ont. by 9.5 per cent.
Overall, the average listing price in Canada was up 5.5 per cent to $327,620 in the January-March period, which is the weakest year-over-year quarterly increase since the end of 2001.
While the figure point to a slowdown in the Canadian housing market, CREA said there is no comparison to the housing slump south of the border.
More at:http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2008/04/17/5316961-cp.html
“Window, door manufacturer to close in Tolleson”
Tolleson is on the S/W border of Phoenix.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/6pp6fj
I live in la canada ca, a nice suburb 10 minutes north of downtown los angeles. Based on my observations, la canada and in the sorrounding cities of glendale and burbank, the homes are generally selling at nov/dec 2004 prices with the exception of few reo’s, foreclosures, short sales, etc. As usual, sellers still have the dream that their home will sell for 20% more than what they paid at the peak, but once the home stays on the market for months, with nothing but lowball offers, they are either forced to resot to short sale or giving the home back if they are not longer able to afford it.
As for me, I am still waiting and lowballing the crap out of these sellers. My lowballs equal what the home would have sold at the end of 2002, beginning of 2003.
Nick
Go so caught up in Long Island that I forgot all about my local market (Boston suburbs). More stuff for sale, fundraising (I do volunteer work for two different organizations, seems to be way down. On one of our community list serves, more people are listing houses for sale and vacation houses for rent. When I first joined that list, I was struck by how many people were looking for recommendations for various carpenters, etc. Almost everyone in my neighborhood uses landscrapers, and I see more of them using brooms and rakes rather than leafblowers. A lot of stores seem very empty.
I’m no longer a dumb/poor renter. I’m cleverly timing the market. People now say, “You must be so glad you rent.” And I am.
Last!
Reporting from Montgomery County, Maryland, where average sale prices are FINALLY down slightly — minus 1.8 percent YOY based on the latest March MRIS numbers. Big deal! This brings the average sales price down to $511,525. This will buy you a nice townhouse or a very basic single family throughout most of the county. Here’s a representative property at the very lowest end of the spectrum: http://tinyurl.com/54v2uo [Would you pay $318k for THAT?]
Inventory is swollen (compare March 2003, 1,716 properties, versus March 2008, 6,189) and sales are DOWN! Again comparing March 2003 and March 2008, monthly sales of 1,097 versus 562). So that’s about 11 months of inventory.
Many properties I have been following have simply disappeared from listing after some number of months, having been removed from the market without a sale. Price reductions are reluctant and small even on listings that have lingered.
I attended an open house last weekend; I was surprised to find several other touring couples going through the property at the same time I was there. I guess buyers are out there; they’re just not pulling the trigger.
I amused myself by checking out Camden Maine real estate on the net for an hour this afternoon. Covers about a dozen mid-coast towns. Prices have come down some, but man the inventory is really building. And it’s only mid-April. With $4 a gallon gasoline on the horizon, that long drive from NYC looks bad. It’s going to be a long summer for sellers in Maine.
Springfield,MO: friend bought a mcmansion in 2005. 5000 sq ft, 450k. We were talking last week and she seemed pretty upset. Turns out a renter with 7 kids moved across the street into a bigger house. Rent:1500
I live in Fayette County, GA - south Atlanta ‘burbs.
It’s not the bubbliest market, no huge run ups, but things are very quiet - so quiet that the county has issued the smallest number of permits for new homes in 35 years. They have also cancelled the countywide tax assessment - a first in 7 years.
When we bought our place back in 2001, we went with the least expensive home that would meet our needs. We are in a low 200’s subdivision surrounded by 300+ neighborhoods. Roads and sewers are in for a new 600K+ subdivision just down the street.
It’s going to take a very long time to get that neighborhood built out. It’ll happen, but not anytime soon and probably not in that price range.
http://tinyurl.com/5pe6lp
Bellevue (not downtown), across Lake Washington from Seattle.
Every weekend for a year now the sign wavers are out on the street corners trying to lure drivers in to buy their crappy condo conversion. After one year, they’re only about 17% occupied, and no one has bought in about a six month period.
Nipping at their heals are TWO more condo conversions in the same area that just opened in the past month.
Meanwhile, those trying to sell in my condo complex are trying to sell for 20% more than prior sales, but no bites. After four months on the market one decided to drop his price by 3%. At that rate, he will NEVER sell.
I’m in San Jose and Bay Area. Nothing is selling. Many half-done commerical RE developments (office buildings) along the 101 corridor appear to be frozen.
I just saw the construction fencing around a lot in my neighborhood that was going to have housing built on it be repossessed by the leasing company, no activity at all on the lot after it was graded.
Lot on Sunrise says Coming Soon, townhomes.. 2 yrs now.
And Condos Indian Canyon North end of town, windy windy windy area, moderne style, but cramped. high $200s+
I don’t Think so.
is that legal ? the socialists that run our county are pretending values are down 4% when they’re off 20%
“They have also cancelled the countywide tax assessment - a first in 7 years.
Every dark cloud has a silver lining.
DEAN CALBREATH
Silver lining in the midst of more bad housing news
Buried beneath all the sour news of rising foreclosures and declining prices last week was a bit of good news for the San Diego County housing market: Prices have finally fallen low enough to achieve some semblance of affordability for potential home buyers.
Whats a good resource for seeing what homes have actually sold/closed escrow in an area (specifcally the east bay/680 corridor in CA)? I look at zillow and there’s like a total of 10 homes sold this year, but isnt that all self reported? Is there an accessible online database to check?
Try Realtor.com.
Las Cruces, NM
Builders here are playing a game of chicken with lenders - many custom builders put up custom homes with 2006 prices. They have apparently determined to wait it out for all the retirees/cashouts from Arizona/Northeast/California to relocate here.
Many vacant spec homes that the owners are trying to rent out - most with a loss due to the loan terms (ARMs, no doc, no down, etc).
For individual homesellers in older parts of the town, the price drops average $50k but that is still not enough to bring prices in line with wages or that reflect the true value of living in an area with very bad roads, ineffective police, drought, taxed medical & dental care that is substandard anyway, & bad schools (NMSU is a fourth-tier school as rated by US News ≀ UTEP - El Paso is even worse with a fifth-tier ranking - its due to the across the border Mexicans and local anchor-babies who are able to enroll and bring down scholastic achievement).
Californians: try not to move here. Northern AZ would be better.
~Misstrial
I notice the used manufactured homes offered have stabilized in their pricing (yes, in the “parks”). Some have even raised their prices about $10,000. Maybe their plan is to market to the FB who still wants to stay here in Michigan? (family, hopes for jobs, miracle - with crushed credit ratings)
The 2008 Missoula Housing Report was issued this week and is posted here http://www.missoularealestate.com/docs/2008MissoulaHousingReport.pdf
The report paints a sad picture of poverty and (lack of) house affordability in Missoula. It also, aggravatingly, dropped some market stats that appeared in previous years’ reports, esp. building permits and number of condos vs. number of mobile homes and houses on the market (there is a growing condo glut). Overall, the authors (realtors + local economist + affordable housing coalition) announced that the local market is “a perfect mixed picture.” http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/04/15/news/local/news03.txt
In first quarter 2008, median prices rose just .7% and sales volume was off by 22.5%. You can see some really interesting market breakdowns by house price here — http://mindypalmer.com/default.asp?pageid=market (scroll down to Market Absorption graph). If current trends continue, it will take 50 months to sell the current number of homes on market for > $500K, 26 months for $400-499, and 16 months for $300-399. Thank heavens we’re not like the rest of the country.
Final MT tidbit of the week: property taxes are reassessed only every 5 years and this year is the year. MT appraisers promise they will look for falling prices before issuing final appraisal values. http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/04/19/news/local/znews02.txt But b/c house prices are not public info in MT, there will be no way for homeowners to be sure that assessments reflect current values. So it’s not just realtors but also state and local gov’t that benefit from non-disclosure laws.
The taller condos downtown and near-in proceed with construction - a pity, since there is not a real demand IMO. Heading to S.Austin from downtown on any of the main arteries - streets with bridges - is becoming a concrete canyon view. As you approached the river, the view used to be green - neighborhoods of small houses, lots of trees.
McMansion on the corner near my house has been on sale 5 or 6 weeks. Open house today seemed to have only one viewer. Fugly place, occupied for less than a year I’d say, by first owner who bought it after developer had it on market for quite a while. Asking price $525,000. It has a shared wall - I would call it a duplex, but developer called it a townhouse and I think planned more until it took him so long to sell.
Two little regular neighborhood houses