It’s All A Big Tangled Mess
The Vashon-Maury Island Beachcomber reports from Washington. “As Davina Dilley knows all too well, Vashon — like many other parts of the country — has seen a shift in the world of real estate: It’s now, she says, a buyers’ market. Davina and her husband put their house on the market last summer, hoping it might get snatched up quickly. At $539,000, the well-kept, 1,600-square-foot house — with a beautifully landscaped yard and woodsy, park-like setting — seemed priced right, Davina Dilley said.”
“Eight months later and after only a few nibbles, the Dilleys have lowered their price twice and are now asking $415,000 for their three-bedroom home on a wooded lane near Morgan Hill.”
“It’s a huge drop from their initial asking price, and yet the Dilleys aren’t too troubled by the adjustments they’ve had to make — in part because the same thing is happening in West Seattle, where they want to buy their next home.”
“‘As a seller, you think, ‘Oh, the price went down,’ said Davina Dilley. ‘But on the other hand, we need to buy a house; so we’re glad the prices have gone down. Everything has dropped to a less inflated price, and everything is more reasonable.’”
“The numbers tell part of the story. As of the end of March, there were 82 houses on the market — a much bigger supply of homes than at the end of March in 2007, when buyers could choose from 47 houses.”
“At the same time, some agents said, buyers are holding off, waiting for the market to reach its low point before making an offer. As a result, only 12 house sales closed in the first quarter of this year, compared with 27 closings in the first quarter last year.”
“The average selling price is also lower. This year, those 12 houses that closed in the first quarter fetched a median price of $394,000; last year, the median price for the first quarter was $485,000, according to the Northwest MLS.”
“Agents agreed the situation on Vashon is far different than it was a year ago, when there were fewer houses on the market and buyers had a great sense of urgency. ‘There isn’t that sense of scarcity that there was a few years ago,’ said Jean Bosch, with John L. Scott.”
“‘For sellers,’ said Marie Browne of Keller Williams, ‘it’s a price war and a beauty contest.’”
“Agents said some people who are trying to move to Vashon are coming from parts of the country where housing sales have tanked — and as a result, Vashon sellers find themselves caught up, if only tangentially, in the national crisis.”
“‘We’ve had a number of contingency sales that failed because people couldn’t sell their homes in other parts of the country,’ said agent Emma Amiad. ‘Our market continues to be fairly strong, but it hurts us because someone can’t sell in Texas, California or Maryland.’”
“Bosch said she worked with one couple who bought a home on Vashon while trying to sell their house in another part of King County. That house in King County hasn’t sold, however, and the couple finally decided to put their new Vashon home on the market and return to the home they were trying to sell.”
“‘The desire to be on Vashon is still pretty strong, but people just can’t get here,’ Bosch said. ‘It’s all a big tangled mess.’”
The Whidbey News Times from Washington. “When it comes to housing on Whidbey, it’s definitely a buyer’s market. Prices are down, inventory is up and interest rates are low. The problem is, not a lot of people are buying, at least not as many as in previous years.”
“Northwest MLS reports 85 pending house sales in March of 2008, down from 120 a year ago. That’s a decrease of 29 percent. Total listings are up 30 percent to 1,076 — which is nearly as many as Skagit County.”
“Gregor S. Strohm, ASA, a respected real estate appraiser in Oak Harbor, cites three reasons for the lackluster sales of homes, all of which are related to the credit crisis. First of all, there’s the confidence issue. People are worried that the nation may be in a recession and are cautious about spending money. They are aware that the housing market is at the center of the financial sinkhole.”
“‘People are nervous,’ he said. ‘They want to feel their property is going to be worth more in the near future.’”
“In a related reason, Strohm said, potential buyers may simply be waiting for the prices to hit bottom. The value of homes continues to drop. The median price of Island County houses sold in March, as compared to a year ago, dipped by 10 percent, from $290,000 to $261,000. As a result, he said ‘trade-up buyers’ are largely absent from the market.”
“Lastly, Strohm pointed out that it’s more difficult to get financing in the wake of the credit fiasco. The so-called ‘liar loans,’ or mortgages handed out without verifying income, are gone, as he said they should be.”
“Joe Niemer, the chief credit officer at Whidbey Island Bank, agrees that lending institutions have tightened up requirements. A few people who would have been able to get a mortgage a couple of years ago may have trouble now. ‘You have to have a real job with real income to qualify,’ he said. ‘But people with a work history and good credit shouldn’t have a problem.’”
“Brian Gentry of Landed Gentry said things are looking up for building on the island. Nonetheless, he said it’s a great time to get a good deal on a new home because some builders have extra inventory.”
“‘A lot of builders are trying to sell what they have before they build more,’ he said.”
The Seattle Times from Washington. “For much of 2007, as the rest of the country sank deeper and deeper into the housing slump, Western Washington and the rest of the Northwest seemed immune to the gloom. But economically, no region is an island, and in recent months the local housing markets have slowed dramatically.”
“With sales down, inventories piling up and homes sitting on the market longer, two groups feeling the pain are developers and the banks that fund them. Indeed, looking at regional banks is a good way to gauge the local fallout from the housing crunch.”
“Everett-based Cascade Financial, parent of Cascade Bank, lent $11.2 million to ‘a well established Pierce County-based residential real-estate builder’ to buy 46 lots and build 12 homes. But ’sales in this development have not materialized as originally projected,’ the bank said. A $5.6 million balance remains on that loan.”
“‘A well-established Snohomish County-based real estate developer,’ took out three loans totaling $11.6 million to buy two tracts totaling 466 acres, with the intention of building homes on them.”
“After the developer fell behind on the loans, he agreed to sell them; the sales have yet to close and the loans have been classed as nonperforming.”
“Sterling Financial of Spokane, has said it will set aside $35 million to $40 million for future loan losses. The higher provision reflects slower home sales, particularly in Boise, Idaho; Bend, Ore.; and Southern California.”
“‘The subprime-related credit crunch is affecting builders and developers disproportionately in some of Sterling’s smaller markets,’ CEO Harold Gilkey said. Slower sales of properties ‘are beginning to affect the liquidity reserves of some borrowers in our core markets.’”
The Oregonian. “Clark County has been a hotbed of population growth and the residential construction it brings for about a decade, aiming to serve buyers wanting room to stretch that might not be available in Portland. In fact, the county has been among the fastest growing in Washington.”
“Now the county, much like the rest of the region, appears poised for a slowdown. Residential construction is down, with perhaps a 20-year low in the number of housing permits issued last year. some aspects of the county’s growth — housing construction, in particular — couldn’t keep its previous pace forever.”
“‘For a whole bunch of years, we were saying, ‘Well, construction is going to slow down this year,’ said Scott Bailey, southwest regional economist for the Washington Employment Security Department. ‘Well, we’re finally right.’”
“Portland-area homeowners saw their values bloom from 2004 to 2006. For 22 straight months, the region reported double-digit growth in annual home prices. Now prices are flat at best, and declining in some places.”
“Real estate agent Debbie Thomas has sold Pearl District condos since the 1990s, starting with the Chown Pella lofts. ‘I’ve seen things go shhhh,’ she says, raising her hand upward. Sales were so hot from about 2001 to 2006, real estate insiders joked that brokers never had to sell. Like waiters, they just took orders.”
“For the first time, Thomas has to sell through a downswing. ‘It’s not taking orders any more,’ she said.”
“During the boom, she said, developers didn’t bother with model units because so much of the building sold out when construction finished. And if she threw a wine-tasting, it was to celebrate the successful sales. ‘Now, it’s very much a sales tool to keep the velocity,’ she said.”
“But Thomas thinks downtown living will remain popular among empty-nesters and young people. ‘I’m probably one of the only people,’ she said, ‘who think we have a year to weather this — or less.’”
“Brian D’Ambrosio from West Linn, owed mortgage, land development, home-building, and property management companies. He had made a mint in real estate. But he sold everything, thinking the market was going to turn.”
“Now, he’s back. D’Ambrosio got a deal on Happy Valley land last year. He paid $135,000 per lot for about 101 lots on a ridge above Southeast Sunnyside Road. During the boom, lots in the same subdivision sold for $220,000, he said.”
“D’Ambrosio and partner Randy Robinson of Robinson Construction have started 10 homes in the Sunrise Heights subdivision. With a chilly housing market, D’Ambrosio keeps building but said he’s changed his business plan a bit.”
“His Sunrise Heights homes cover as much as 2,225 square feet and feature a covered patio and an outdoor stone barbecue and fireplace. ‘Think you would have done that two years ago?’ Larry Strutz, D’Ambrosio’s sales guy, asked about the outdoor features.”
“‘No. We would have built as fast as we could,’ D’Ambrosio said.”
“Those homes, he said, would have gone for $550,000 in the boom without the outdoor bonuses. Today, they top out at $418,000, a 24 percent difference.”
“As new housing starts have slowed to a trickle nationwide, sawmills and secondary wood products companies across Oregon have curtailed operations or cut workers.”
“Bright Wood sells window and door components and trim pieces across North America. Its customers sell to builders or home supply stores. Stovall estimates his customers’ volumes are down 20 percent to 30 percent from early 2007.”
“‘There’s just no market,”‘ said CEO Dallas Stovall. ‘Nobody is building anything.’”
“A few hours after Toni Martinez started her shift at Bright Wood’s plant 13 in Madras her supervisor pulled her aside. ‘I said, ‘Am I getting laid off?’ recalled Martinez. She was, as have hundreds of others in recent months at Bright Wood, central Oregon’s third largest private employer.”
“‘There’s just so much panic in the housing market, someone way down the totem pole like me has to pay part of the price,’ said Martinez.”
“She doesn’t anticipate being able to find anything that pays as well as her $12 an hour Bright Wood job, which allowed her to buy a house for the first time. She’s considering going back to property management. Anything to pay the bills, she said.”
“‘Everybody’s scared,’ she said, ‘because if you’re like me, you have a house and car payment and you start thinking, ‘What are you going to do?’”
The Mail Tribune from Oregon. “Not long ago, finding a home for under $200,000 was almost impossible in Jackson County. The tide has turned and some house prices are hovering around $100,000 or less, though that won’t buy a dream home.”
“‘You wouldn’t have seen this two years ago,’ said broker Sandra Schell. ‘Things have changed.’”
“Schell said the catch with most of these houses is a generally undesirable location or something that needs work. With others, you’re just getting the structure but not the land, which is leased.”
“But for buyers, she said, there are plenty of deals out there. ‘Anybody who has money should be picking up properties right and left,’ she said.”
“Roy Wright, a local real estate appraiser, said five urban homes have sold for under $100,000 since the beginning of the year. ‘There’s no way of telling, but they were probably all foreclosures,’ he said.”
“On Monday, Wright said there were 13 houses listed in Jackson County that are selling for under $100,000. At $125,000 or less, there were 31, he said. For instance, in west Medford, a 920-square-foot house on a .17-acre lot is selling for $106,900.”
“The median price for houses in urban areas in Jackson County was $235,000 in March.”
“On Broad Street in Butte Falls, there is a 1,056-square-foot house built in 1912 with two bedrooms and one bathroom that is going for $99,900. The house comes with a bit of land — .15 acres — unlike some in the sub-$100,000 price range.”
“Broker Pat Saunders said the catch with this house is that it is a so-called ’short sale.’”
“Two banks have different loans on the property, so a potential home buyer would have to negotiate the sale, a process that could take four months rather than the typical one-month escrow, she said. At some point, the bank will have an appraisal done on the house once offers are made, but the appraisal won’t necessarily determine the final price. With so many houses on the market, and so many in foreclosure, the banks are willing to come down.”
“‘They normally come down to get rid of it rather than go into foreclosure,’ said Saunders.”
The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “Struggling with bank debts, the 35-year-old builder of five high-profile homes constructed at the peak of the housing boom adjacent to Newport Avenue Market is now selling them at a loss.”
“‘We built too nice of homes that weren’t supported by the market,’ said Cary Martinez. ‘There was a certain amount of excess that if we were really trying to make money, we wouldn’t have done it that way. We were more concerned with the impact of our project on the earth.’”
“Martinez originally listed them for sale last summer for more than $800,000, he said. Each of the skinny, 2,000-square-foot, three-bedroom homes has its own hue, and all are geared toward luxurious, green living, Martinez said.”
“Martinez and his partner, Barry Seaton, started construction in 2005. The median price for homes in Bend was climbing toward the $351,900 mark that it would hit in 2006, although Martinez said signs of a slowing housing market had started to appear.”
“‘We could have made money on this project if we weren’t so passionate,’ he said. ‘Forget about the $7,000 refrigerator and some of the finishes. We lost the idea of what it takes to keep this idea moving forward — profit.’”
“When none of the homes sold, and Seaton and Martinez were unable to make the payments on the homes, they received pre-foreclosure notices late last year on all five homes.”
“To avoid foreclosure, the owners decided to enter into a short-sale agreement with each separate bank to which they owe money. Martinez said they owe, on average, between $575,000 and $600,000 on each of the remaining homes, along with attorney fees.”
“‘We’re getting rid of all our inventory,’ he said. ‘I’m over the real estate thing. It’s recovery time. It’s a better option to let it go, rather than handle the monthly overhead.’”
“Martinez agreed that the Newport Avenue homes could have been built at a lower cost and still been green. ‘I would never build like that again, ever,’ he said. ‘Especially on a spec level.’”
Just want to point out that Vashon is very much part of Metro Seattle - it’s just a short ferry ride from the mainland and is no farther from downtown than SeaTac airport.
Goodle map
My friend who had two successive houses on Vashon got a lot more reading done than I did. He and his wife did 12 hour workdays including the commute. A lot of waiting for two 15 minute ferry rides, and their schedules didn’t quite coincide.
Much nicer to just visit and hang out, help build a deck or two. Kind of like being a grandparent to a house
So I guess going “green” cost them the green…..
2 questions for BB members
1.what % is building of the true domestic economy - my estimate is over 10%
2. how many private ,productive workers does it take to support a gov worker ? my theory is over 20
As long as you asked I will let you know that we just got back from a nice walk through the neighborhood. We headed up the west side by Battery Park and the West Side Highway. We stopped into the West Village and back again. My eyes hurt from what I saw.
What is taking place in this city is ludicrous. The building going on makes no sense. Between the commercial and the residential there just is no real market for all of this. Think about all of the financial layoffs. It is boom time dreaming.
And they still haven’t developed world trade. I kept asking my wife, “is there really any need for all of that office space that the World Trade site represents?” I now think the answer is an absolute, “no”. It could destroy the office market in this area.
I apologize interrupting your regularly scheduled thread but sadly I view this as the most important city in the U.S. Maybe that is arrogant. Remember, I don’t come from here. The developments here wreak of a larger disaster. I am depressed. Thank god we stopped at so many bars.
When I see massive overbuilding, as a potential buyer I say go, go, go. More inventory that will crash-dive prices when demand evaporates.
Of course the builders/investors will lose their shirts.
“Roy Wright, a local real estate appraiser, said five urban homes have sold for under $100,000 since the beginning of the year. ‘There’s no way of telling, but they were probably all foreclosures,’ he said.”
An appraiser who never heard of the county recorder’s office (a/k/a registrar of deeds). Hmmm.
“‘We built too nice of homes that weren’t supported by the market,’ said Cary Martinez. ‘There was a certain amount of excess that if we were really trying to make money, we wouldn’t have done it that way. We were more concerned with the impact of our project on the earth.’”
I can’t remember if I’ve mentioned this before to you all, but I hate developers. I mean, really really hate, with a firm, committed, wholehearted, resolute and devout hatred, like a religion except it makes sense, and this sort of lying vomit is one of the reasons. I look at project applications all the time and I see so much massaging of data, and deliberate deceit from developers, you can’t even begin to fathom, and the wetlands filled with gravel, and the stream buffers ignored, and the slope grade data creatively presented, it’s just, it’s just…oh, gawd, I gotta go have a bit of a lie-down, before the veins in my forehead bust loose and make a sticky red mess on my desk. Where the fook is a fainting couch, when I need one?
Okay, back in a bit.
“I can’t remember if I’ve mentioned this before to you all, but I hate developers. I mean, really really hate, with a firm, committed, wholehearted, resolute and devout hatred”
I’ll go right ahead and agree with you.
“…and the wetlands filled with gravel, and the stream buffers ignored, and the slope grade data creatively presented…”
The severity of property damage from the recent floods in the Chehalis river valley can be directly attributed to developers filling in wetlands which historically capture floodwaters, along with the horrific logging practices of Weyerhauser. Gotta love those mega corps. There’s a special place in hell for the big money maggots.
‘…can be directly attributed to developers filling in wetlands which historically capture floodwaters, along with the horrific logging practices of Weyerhauser.’
Yep. And yet you have their whores, errr, I mean their ‘consultants’ arguing that it just isn’t so, no waaaaayyyyy, and in any case, there must be a lot of scientific study and ’stake-holder consensus building’ before any logging practices or development codes are changed.
read this blog regularly but never posted until I read Olympiagal’s comments about developers. Agree, I live in the Columbia River Gorge, and they are a plague down here. In my town there is a 30 unit sfh development that was completed last year that looks like it is about to go bankrupt, so cheers to that.
Anyhow, greetings to everyone on this blog that I have gotten to know over the last year. I don’t post because I’m not as financially sophisticated as most of you. I do own my home though -bought in 1996.
Yes, own, I learned from reading here that you can only say that if you don’t owe a bank anything for your house. It’s not a palace, just a little house. The deer seem to like to visit it.
Have a good week, everyone!
Nica
Bzzzzt! Sorry, wrong answer. Building in a floodplain is the root cause. Flooding has happened for millions of years and as with other natural disasters, there is little to nothing that humankind can do to stop it.
My dad inherited land near the headwaters of the Chehalis river and in fact the river cuts right through it. The amount of destruction of his property is mind-boggling, and man didn’t have anything to do with it, logging or not. Something about getting over a foot of rain in a 24-hour period may have, however. The river rose about thirty feet above its normal level in a very short time period, due to the aforementioned rain.
why , they’re productive and risk their capital
what do you risk ?
and what do you produce?
Hey, flat, do you really call all these POS developments worthwhile production? No, it’s actually destruction. Ask Youngstown, Iowa.
whoops, or Ohio, or wherever…
Close enough, lol.
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-04-20 12:42:33
why , they’re productive and risk their capital
what do you risk ?
and what do you produce?
You have just got to get some punctuation to go with your bile, my good man. I saw your post awhile ago and simply skimmed over it as incomprehensible, like a veal paprikash recipe or something, and moved comfortably on to losty’s chat. It wasn’t til I fell of the porch and then came back in that I understood you even meant to be insulting.
Try again. Do.
Can we add ski area developers to the list?? They’ve totally ruined my home state of Colorado. I grew up skiing and loving it, but this was before it go so chic and drew the expensive 2nd homes and down-valley sprawl and commuting.
The second wave of ghost towns will soon form in Colorado. With the credit bubble popping and oil going through the roof, I can’t think of an area more likely to take a bath. Putting the kids in the Suburban and filling up (120 bucks), Ski rental for 4 (100 bucks), Ski tickets for 4 (over 200 bucks), Food at the lodge for 4 (50 bucks) - How many people can afford to spend 500 bucks for one day of entertainment?
the majority of people that voted for w..that’s who. damn life has never been so better. what…me worry? bwahhahahahahahah. Yo keeps on payin your taxes servant….err voter.
Showing off and acting cool … priceless.
The statement that keeps getting made in the MSM about foreclosures ruining property values drives me crazy. Now that some standards are being applied to mortgage lending, those prices are what people can actually afford. The prices being paid for foreclosure are much closer to true values than the fantasy prices of a few years ago. If it weren’t for the foreclosure and distressed sales, transactions would probably be off 80%. Sellers would stick to their fantasies and buyers couldn’t qualify.
Foreclosures drive down property values because of the comps, which leads to home owners being underwater, which leads to more short sales and “walk away” foreclosures, etc. etc.
Foreclosures are a symptom, not a cause…
Builders selling at a loss. Cost of construciton falling. Land going for cheap. All the stuff that could never happen. All the reasons that prices could not drop are evaporating like water in Death Valley.
“When it comes to housing on Whidbey, it’s definitely a buyer’s market. The problem is, not a lot of people are buying, at least not as many as in previous years.”
In addition, some people actually prefer to hear themselves and others talk while trying to enjoy a warm summers day out in the yard (or indoors for that matter), as opposed to the earth shaking roar of the F-16’s as they rocket skyward from the neighborhood naval air station.
Oops, this nested in the wrong place.
But see, it’s different here in Seattle……
Yeah, it’s so different here it’s snowed the last three days.
It’s snowing right this freakin’ minute out here. I just about fell off the porch while trying to observe a spider. Where is my nice simple warm rain? Who did this? I bet it’s Sweet Baby Jeebus, showing His displeasure with all these asschapeaux developers we got out here. Next comes the fiery lightning bolts and the rain of frogs.
It was snowing and sticking in Bremerton a couple of hours ago. Old-timers are saying they have never seen snow this late in April in Kitsap County lowlands before. Climate change due to global warming ???
Yes, one of the deceptive effects of Global Warming is that you never know for sure how it will appear. Often cold weather and snow are simply a bluff to throw people off…while the real damage is done out of sight.
(…it gets difficult to explain Global Warming when everything is cooling down, but we have ways)
It never HAS snowed like this here before, at this time! I also called up Thee Olden Timers down here and they was also bitching up a storm. This is craziness.
All I know is, somebody should get a serious smack-down for this. Just tell me who, and we’re all on the way, because we just cannot be having this. My beet shoots is going to freeze!
Is Al Gore in Seattle?
(The famous Gore Effect - where the Reverend Al goes, snow and cold weather follows…)
Gotrocks & kpom - you’re right. Snow in in mid-April is normal for Kitsap County. Nothing going on here. Absolutely no chance of climate change as being the possible cause. Sorry, my bad. I’ll just keep ignoring the obviously unusual.
It snowed earlier this morning on the coast in Eureka, California. But then again, our weather is pretty much the same as British Columbia or Southern Alaska.
It was a beautiful warm day here in Anchorage. No snow, and lots of mud.
There are two “green” spec homes which have been sitting vacant and unsold for nearly a year and a half down the road a few miles from my house. They are each on 2+ acre lots. The builder subdivided 20 acres, and has the two finished homes for sale, as well as the remaining raw 2 acre parcels. I’ve never seen one person look at either one. He “reduced” the prices to $300k, but that’s too much for rural Chehalis. He’s either wealthy and doesn’t mind burning cash, or he’s going to go BK. His carrying costs have to be $2k per month in interest alone on just the finished homes.
Do these green spec homes have clothes lines? The greenies are really starting to piss me off. It’s just another group of arrogant phonies. They own six houses but they are “green”. Oh, screw it, I’m not going to go too far into this one.
There’s a difference between people who try to live green and real estate development hype that’s trying to appeal to a new trendiness.
“The tide has turned and some house prices are hovering around $100,000 or less, though that won’t buy a dream home.””
That will work out fine for those who would be happy with a reality home, rather than a dream one.
Everyone must have their “dream home” or else it’s suicide.
My dream home is a place where I know there is love and safety and happiness. Oops. I guess I already have that. F-ck off NAR.
“You wouldn’t have seen this two years ago,’ said broker Sandra Schell”
Evidently Sandra was too involved in the mania to read blogs like this one that accurately predicted more than 2 years ago precisely what the outcome would be from the “greed party”.
And to think, it is only inning 2 or 3 up here in the PNW. Got a long way to go yet.
Thank you Ben for your site from a lurker who knows nothing. I have no idea what “the experts” are talking about.
All I know is my (3) Bedroom, (2) bath, (2) car garage with finished basement and “only” 1500 sf in mid america is only worth $120,000. You think I have a problem with that? No way, Jose!
1984 mudhut is paid for. Never used it for trips to Disneyworld. Used it to keep dry and warm. Will continue to do so until I slobber in the wheel chair. Wife and I managed to retire at 55. Key word is “manage! Have been to (48) contingeous states and (6) Canadian Provinces
Wife and I love to watch the Home and Garden Channel and see fools go crazy for a 850K hovel that we would never let our pet rats go into.
Oh my gosh! What are our kids going to do when we stop slobbering and die?
Mudhut has no marble countertops, hardwood floors, stainless steel kitchen, crown molding and has popcorn ceiling! Oh, the horror!
$150 for gas & electric and $28 for water and sewer.
Sorry to bother you wheeler and dealers
Great site, Ben. Thank you.
Doctor, this site isn’t the “wheelerdealers” it is the reality folk just like you and the Mrs.
That is what most/many of of wish to return to. Reality. Usefullness,truth in lending etc.
Glad to see you posting. welcome lurkers, come out come out wherever you are!
desertdweller
Thank you for your wonderful comments. Much appreciated. I should have mentioned that we had a 5 1/2% conventional 30 year and paid it off in 24 via judicious spending habits. At the same time we were able to enjoy our beautiful country. We hope to continue doing same while our health holds out.
I enjoy this site very much and lurk several times a week. I can’t help to think that I’am morbid in doing so. The sad tales out there do sicken me. There by the Grace Of God, go I.
Many Regards
Hello Fartel, this must be your first post, because I think I’d probably recall your particular name.
Here’s my questions for you:
1. Does your popcorn ceiling also have those glamorous sparkly specks in it? Because those are super-elegant.
2. What’s your rats’ names, and what color are they?
My brother had a pet rate once. Her name was Isolde or Izzy for common use. She sort of looked white, but if you got in close you could see she was mostly a pale buff color with some off white patches. Our uncle once had a cat named Tristan and Isolde was named to go with that theme, though I have no idea why. Tristan was an evil tempered beast who liked to plant himself in the middle of the busiest doorway in the house and lash out at anyone who walked near him. He drew blood on several occasions.
Tristan and Iseult. Haha. Rendered as a rat and a cat. I see that your uncle had a pleasing sense of irony and humor, or else he was just having a pay-back time on the chicks. Was he a scholar of the classics, or just a grouch, I wonder?
Never a grouch. Lovely man and only eight years older than me so more like a brother than an uncle. Phd in drama history. Now a lawyer - well, ya gotta eat, right?
Brother is pretty awsome too. Izzy was a college pet. She used to sit on his shoulder in class. Now he has a wife and a baby and is distinctly lacking in pet rodents.
Nope. No sparkle! How 50′ish. Rats names are George W. and the guy from Wyoming. George W. do’s well when called, but the guy from Wyoming has never learned $##T. But what can you expect after sockpuppet George was on his hand for 7 1/2 years?
Doc,
I’m liking you more with each post!
Mike
Rats colors are either red or blue. Totally dependent on which way the wind is blowing at the time. But of course, you knew that.
“for a 850K hovel that we would never let our pet rats go into.”
LOL!!
Can anyone decipher this article from Billings (MT)? Appraisals to Reflect Declines
The article reports that the Department of Revenue want to know if your home value has dropped recently, for the new appraisal.
It then goes on to reassure us that There may be some evidence of the slowing of growth in values and construction, but not general deterioration in the state of Montana.
But then it says that Montana has less exposure to “underwater loans” - homes that are now worth less than the value of their mortgages - than most states in the region. He pegged Montana and North Dakota’s exposure at 11 percent, compared with 17 percent for Idaho, Wyoming and South Dakota.
So, wait, some homes have lost value and are worth less than the loans were for? Or did people get 120% loans? I’m confused.
“”There is no evidence as yet that the national housing turmoil has resulted in a widespread or significant deterioration in Montana markets,” Bucks told the Subcommittee on Property Reappraisal. “There may be some evidence of the slowing of growth in values and construction, but not general deterioration.”
Scott Rickard, a Montana State University-Billings economist, said the growth in home prices in Montana has slowed down from an average of 10 percent annually over five years to 6.7 percent the past year.”
Bucks is either incredibly stupid or he brought a house recently,and he doesn’t want the value of his S%^tbox to deteriorate.
Too bad, Scott Richard doesn’t work at MSU-Bozeman, because I like to walk to his office and tell him in person to get lost and sell his stupid somewhere else.
Cinch
..Two banks have different loans on the property, so a potential home buyer would have to negotiate the sale, a process that could take four months..
Banks have to formulate a new plan.. one that tames their REO bureaucracy and cuts through all that red tape. Those that delay doing it will suffer the most.
They can’t afford to book the losses.
Banks do want to sell certain properties. They price them and hand them off to RE agents to sell to qualified knife catchers.
And offers do come in, but what happens? The potential sale is stuck in limbo.. for months.
It’s not here yet, but the time will come when banks are fighting other banks over the shrunken buyer pool.. tens of thousands of properties will need to be unloaded.
Anatomy of a Collapse
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/books/review/Norris-t.html?_r=1&ref=books&oref=slogin
Great review.
Scariest line: “by the time all the losses are toted up, from mortgages to corporate loans to credit cards, the total could hit $1 trillion. And that is before considering some risky areas as yet unquantifiable.” The perfect storm for housing and finance.
Looks interesting.
“With the American financial system apparently threatened by paralysis after an era of easy credit that now seems ridiculous and venal at the same time, Wall Street may be about to endure another of its periodic brushes with public scorn and reprisal.”
“‘We could have made money on this project if we weren’t so passionate,’ he said.
————————————————–
‘passionate’ is the trendy, self-absorbed way to say that you like something a lot. Used to praise someone or as self praise, like “I’m really passionate about mountain biking, it’s what I’m all about.”
From the single picture, these houses look really butt ugly. I mean many houses are ugly but these are something else…
I like the way they are all crammed next to each other, almost like low end housing projects. And he managed to spend $3 million building all 5?
Seriously, I have seen 3 year olds draw better massings. I wonder how much of that went up his nose and on his cars?
The boob who spent 450K needs his/her head examined as well.
Oliver
The boob who spent 450k on it was the VP of Marketing for the mortgage company who was foreclosing on the house. I guess he decided to take one for the team and take half the loss for himself.
One of the houses that the agent says has an offer foreclosed the day before she sent out the press release. It’s not her listing anymore.
The other two aren’t pending. They are contingent - waiting for the mortgage holding bank to approve the offers on them or not.
Passionate is now also becoming the newest management speak word of the moment. In that context it just means you can make your people work a ton without paying them that much because they are so committed to the company’s mission. Or it looks like they are really devoted to the company/job/manager but what is really going on is they are scared to death of loosing their health insurance.
“‘We’re getting rid of all our inventory,’ he said. ‘I’m over the real estate thing. It’s recovery time. It’s a better option to let it go, rather than handle the monthly overhead.’”
——————————————
from the truth is better than fiction files
I am watching the most incredible Property Ladder ever right now. These two Chinese dipshits are the most amazing morons I have ever seen in my life. The leader moron does everything according to some bullshit Chinese superstitions. His lucky numbers are “2″ and “8″ so everything decision he makes, including budget, the price he paid for the flip, etc. have to have these two numbers.
These morons have no experience in anything, and as I watch this the entire flip is IMPLODING. This was their first flip and now they hate each other.
I friggin love it.
Two morons. No experience. Going to take 2 weeks to do the entire remodel. Spend no more than $12,280 (it has 2 and 8 in it!) and make a cool $65k profit.
Please God let these worthless assholes lose it all on this one.
BTW, they are driving around in a nice Benz just living large! This is in Garbage Grove, CA.
I have never seen 2 morons as bad as these dipshits.
You obviously missed the two thugs who were flipping the Garbage Grove bunghole, I mean bungalow. Those scumbags did a worse job on the place than my 10 year old nephew would have. Unfortunately, a greater fool bailed them out. Sickening.
These guys didn’t get bailed out. Based on the info I saw I suspect they lost at least $50k, probably a lot more. They couldn’t sell, and their carrying cost was $4k a month. Plus they worked their asses off on this place for 4 months x 2 people (the leader did nothing). They must have gotten some insane loan to be paying that much on a $313k condo.
These guys lost their asses. That’s the best part. They come in with no experience, add no value, and expect to be paid handsomely for it. I just hope their loss includes their lucky numbers!
“His lucky numbers are “2″ and “8″ so everything decision he makes, including budget, the price he paid for the flip, etc. have to have these two numbers.”
…also the year that he wrecked his life trying to be the next Tom Vu.
“You want to make BIG money”
I still remember Tom Vu’s infomercial. Riding around on his boat with large breasted american women.
I wonder how riding them compared with getting ridin by his cellmate Bubba.
Mike
“Are you man enough to get off your lazy American ass and go to Vu’s seminars?”
“There’s two kinds of work in America: hard work and smart work. Which one are you doing now?”
“Today I’m gonna show you how to drive a sports car. First, you need a lot of money!”
“Do you think these girls like me? NO, they like my money!”
“At first I got lots of discouragement from friends and stranger who are loser! You know what these people kept telling me? They kept saying, ‘Well Tom Vu, you a crazy nut, here you are, a poor immigrant, poor minority, speak no English, no contact, on and on, and you trying to be rich in America! You crazy, man! Look at people out there! They smarter than you are, they not even rich! Who are you to try?’ And you know what? I have to keep telling these people every time, I kept saying, ‘You are loser! Get out of my way! I make it somehow!’”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Vu
I like it! lol
“You wanna get hot girl like dis? Come to my seminar!!!!”
“Do not listen to friends! They are loser!”
http://youtube.com/watch?v=hnda41lj6go&feature=related
Whatever happened to that guy…
OMG this flip is going bad. The main dipshit refuses to call to get trash hauled away, because…it is “manual labor” and he is too busy reading some crazy book about positive energy to do it. Meanwhile they are on day 37 of their 2 week flip. Now the main dipshit says the flip will be done in 2 months, since…you guessed it…it has a “2″ in it.
I thought China had a strict policy on limiting population growth? How did these morons get through?
You guys cannot miss this Property Ladder episode.
‘There was a certain amount of excess that if we were really trying to make money, we wouldn’t have done it that way. We were more concerned with the impact of our project on the earth.’”
“…all are geared toward luxurious, green living, Martinez said.”
“‘Forget about the $7,000 refrigerator and some of the finishes. We lost the idea of what it takes to keep this idea moving forward — profit.’”
—————————————————
why does this guy make me want to puke? Impact on the Earth, and green, are discordant concepts with the $7K reefer and luxury. And his spew about the $800K houses not being about making money.
Dude deserves full Joshua.
These houses were way overbuilt for their location and lot size. They are on one of the busiest streets on that side of town with their expansive windows facing the street. Putting a sub-zero refrigerator and $1500 DWR light fixtures in was excessive and not part of the “green” of this project.
Having 100% wool carpets, zero VOC paints and a high-efficiency boiler with radiant floor heating and lots of insulation were green.
I’ve been in these houses and they are really well built and I quite like them inside. They are however on a busy street with only a 30 foot wide lot, no yard and parking for only one vehicle in the garage - no space for a vehicle outside.
If you have curiosity what type of house in Bend can loose about $200k per house you can visit : abacusGC or see a video on them at YouTube
A GREEN full Joshua.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Nah, wait for a joshua tree after a fire. Less flexibility in the branches.
Don’t JT me bro!
““When it comes to housing on Whidbey, it’s definitely a buyer’s market. Prices are down, inventory is up and interest rates are low. The problem is, not a lot of people are buying.”
Interesting…it seems the buyers don’t seem to agree with the shills that it’s a “buyers’ market”.
Portland actually worked out quite nicely for an aunt of mine. She was single and worked her entire adult life at various hospitals in the Portland area. Back in the early 70s she bought a nice modest bungalow in the Alameda neighborhood for around $15 grand with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, which I think she refinanced sometime later to finish out the basement as a rental apartment. Her actual mortgage was under $200 and her mother-in-law apartment paid for all her housing expenses and the lawn maintenance. So from the mid-70s on, she basically lived free in her own house. I remember when she told me she was making her last mortgage payment around 2004 and I was shocked that it was below $200.
In 2006 she finally decided to sell it, having retired some years earlier and wanting the freedom to travel and not deal with house maintenance on a 1920s bungalow. She sold it for over $500,000, put the cash in bonds, and now rents a modest apartment in an assisted living complex and spends most of her time traveling. She has no worries. She lives on her social security and pension/401Ks and doesn’t even touch her savings.
Had she rented her whole live it is doubtful she’d have anywhere remotely close to the wealth she has today.
Of course that’s not to say Portland isn’t in the midst of a bubble like the rest of the country. Aside from Nike, Freightliner, and a few tech companies, there really isn’t much industrial base. Once the musical chairs stop I’m not sure what’s going to holding up the economy.
Kent:
My stepfather bought his first house for 12K. It is the house that I rent right now. He paid it off within 2 or 3 years, with a barber’s income. He went on to buy much more property around town to become a very wealthy man… The 12K house is worth around 350K right now, yet if you take into consideration the amount of money that he has to spend to keep the places up, i don’t doubt he would be better off placing his money in a cd at 3% a year.
With that being said, it was a different era. RE got excessively expensive in the interlude, and right now, I would not be able to pull the same stunt, even though I have plenty of cash, and a better income than that of a barber.
The mantra that RE always goes up, is just not true.. We are seeing a once in a lifetime event. That same 12K house would be 12k if someone would have to come up with saved cash to buy it (think about a complete credit wipeout). I think it will not become that extreme, but I guess it could conceivably drop to 85-90 (Renters are hard on houses) after it is al said and done.
“‘We built too nice of homes that weren’t supported by the market,’ said Cary Martinez. ‘There was a certain amount of excess that if we were really trying to make money, we wouldn’t have done it that way. WE WERE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE IMPACT OF OUR PROJECT ON THE EARTH (capitals added).’”
“Martinez originally listed them for sale last summer for more than $800,000, he said. Each of the skinny, 2,000-square-foot, three-bedroom homes has its own hue, and all are geared toward luxurious, GREEN LIVING (capitals added), Martinez said.”
Now we’ll just see how strong the “Green Movement” is when people are now trying to figure out to find shelter and put food on their table. It’s one thing to be Green when you’re loaded with money and your house is a piggy bank, it’s quite another when being green means saying bye to your job.
California dealt with these Green fantasies in the 1980s, with a ballot proposition called “Big Green”. It was all set to be approved…but then the economy tanked…and it got killed something like 60/40 (or worse). It’s a lot of fun being Green and saving the planet…but not quite as much fun when you’re begging for a job, or scared to death at being laid off.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE2DC133CF935A2575AC0A966958260
We’ll just see how shutting down our economy in the name Global Warming does when the full effect of this real estate crash takes hold over the next few years.
I truly have no idea what “green” is supposed to mean in this context. Alternative energy, yes, I understand. Simple living, ditto. Also environmental and resource conservation. Etc etc etc. But none of these are consistent with an $800,000 house for 2-4 people. A $7,000 refrigerator? Good grief. For the cost of this house’s kitchen appliances, you (literally) could build a perfectly livable 2-person house that would use almost no energy. (Land extra, of course; and assuming availability of sewer, water and electricity at the street.) The house would be small. But you would have a dry place to sleep, eat, keep your stuff, and have company. You could have a cat and the sun would come in the windows. And it would be fine.
pinch-a-penny.
I agree with you entirely. My Dad bought the house I grew up in in Oregon on a teacher’s salary. My mother was a nurse but wasn’t working during my early childhood.
That’s actually still possible to do here in Texas. I’m now starting a second career teaching HS science and many of the young teachers I meet are buying or have bought houses. But then you can get a new 1600 sf 3 br 2 bath house in a new suburban subdivision around here for $120,000 or so. Decent modest older homes in modest neighborhoods can be had for $80 grand. This part of Texas hasn’t experienced any kind of price bubble but it sure has experienced a construction bubble and, of course, a lending bubble putting unqualified people into homes they can’t afford.
Personally I think we’ll revert back to the mean…or in this case the long-term trendline. Without looking at the price graphs, I’m imagining that will be a 50% haircut in some areas. In areas where there is economic and population growth housing will always have some value. I’m not sure that will be the case in places like Detroit though, where there is no real purpose served by living there.
“She doesn’t anticipate being able to find anything that pays as well as her $12 an hour Bright Wood job, which allowed her to buy a house for the first time.
She’s considering going back to property management. Anything to pay the bills, she said.
“Everybody’s scared,” she said, “because if you’re like me, you have a house and car payment and you start thinking, ‘What are you going to do’?”"
On $12HR, she has a house and car payment. Is this even possible?
Sorry if a repeat ,but yet another last ditch bail-out..before the big run?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080420/national_city_investors.html
Capitalize the profits. Socialize the losses.
My husband and I just drove around the Sacramento area today to scope out neighborhoods and check out some new developments. Two newer communities had pretty amazing designs, but they were located in areas that I would call out in the middle of nowhere, with no easy freeway access. But again beautifully designed homes. They look like they’ve been built very recently –which means everyone who bought a house in these developments in the past 3 years is either forclosed, will forclose, or is feeling screwed. The nicest development still had a lot of undeveloped plots of land scattered throughout that they were trying to sell.
What I thought was odd was that they were each claiming that half of their model homes were already sold for around a million. We were allowed to roam through most of these homes that they claim were already sold. If I were buying a house for a million and it went through escrow, why woudln’t I be living in it, and why would I want other people to roam around in it? I suppose the houses could have still been in escrow. But I wondered if they were lying about model homes being sold to make people feel like they have to hurry up and buy before they rest are gone? I looked up these neighborhoods on zillow, and didn’t see any of those models home sales show up -yet. In fact very few sales showed up in the last three months, and when I look at trulia I can see that even more forclosures have yet to be advertised.
We looked at a couple house that were in forclosure. These were beautiful 4000sf homes on about 1/2 acre that must have sold for close to a million, and are now advertised in the mid-700ks. The real estate agent we talked to said that these homes had been getting offers, but escrow didn’t go through since the lenders have become much more strict in the last month.
>> “But for buyers, she said, there are plenty of deals out there. ‘Anybody who has money should be picking up properties right and left,’ she said.”
And try to do what with them? Chase vagrants and burglars from them?
>> “‘People are nervous,’ he said. ‘They want to feel their property is going to be worth more in the near future.’”
Why stop there? I want to feel our air, food and water should be worth more too. What the market will bear.