The Housing Bubble

It was always the same. It [separating fact from BS] was always difficult.
That bears emphasis.
The old saying “Let’s see the color of his money” refers to the necessity in the mid 1800’s to carefully examine bank notes to sort out the real from the counterfeits and to consider the creditworthiness of the issuing bank.
In the early days of Michigan, long before the Fed was dreamed of, the state set up a system of bank examiners to verify that each bank held a certain percentage of reserves in gold to back its loans & deposits. Some of the banks colluded & set up a system where the same chest of gold coins was moved from one bank to the next, a day ahead of the bank examiner’s scheduled arrival. The same stock of gold was counted as the reserve of many different Michigan banks. Scams and other cunning evasions have always been part of everyday life.

I was certainly a doubting sheeple most of my life, but I think my major de-sheepling event occurred during the 2000 election results fiasco.

While I know that BS has been around since the big bang, I do believe that there is more spin coming form more places than ever before and that makes it more difficult to determine what fact from BS is.
There are over 17k lobbyists in DC spinning their tales http://tinyurl.com/4ksc4s with lobbying expenditures doubling in the last 10 years. Thank you for Smoking often comes to mind.
There’s only one state where there are more legislators than lobbyists http://tinyurl.com/3nh6b4
100s of available worldwide news stations instead of just the major 3 in the US.
Thousands of Internet news sites instead of merely the traditional daily newspaper.

Having access to that volume of information is fantastic, but at times it can be a challenge to separate fact from fiction.

Neil:

You should see how much the price of Bubble wrap has gone up in the last year 50% or more..and those packing peanuts are not cheap either.

I jump in my car try and scarf up anybody who offers them for free on Craigslist
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Energy effects the price of everything!

DJ, I ship everything but really fragile stuff using shredded paper, works about as well. Easy to get.

They’ll keep driving until their gas card is maxed out.

Figure $4.00 a gallon this summer, a car that gets 20 mpg on average w air conditioning going, 120 mile round trip, 5 days a week, 6×4 = $24.00 x 5 = $120 x 4 = $480 + $120 insurance = 600 + $350 car payment (low) = $950 + $50 consumables = $1000 a month - Say you make $40K a year -15K for withholdings = $25,000/54 = $463 (round up) a week x 4 =$1852 a month- orrrrrrrrr$852.00 a month after commute… Hmmmmm

I have a friend - both he and his wife work, and have longish commutes (25 mi, 30 mi each way, in different directions) - one of them gets to telecommute or use a closer office once a week or so.

They have 3 young (early grade school) kids who need driving to assorted sports and other extracurricular activities, although they are not a really sports-centric group like some people I know who are in the “traveling teams” kind of lifestyle, where the kids are constantly playing baseball or some other sport for 6 to 9 months a year. And, oh yeah, they drive to the beach (100 mi each way) in an SUV (or SUV plus sedan, if schedules don’t work out right) a lot during the summer to see relatives (at least they get to stay free).

And, oh yeah, they have a nanny, since the kids aren’t in school from 9-5 every day (although the hours have been cut back a lot, now that everyone’s in school - and they are at least in an area with really good public schools).

It blows my single-guy mind to think what the food, clothing and gas bills must be for these folks - and how they are coping with the spike in food and gas prices must be felt in just the last couple years. They both do pretty well - but the basic cost of household and commuting must be nuts for them.

They will adjust….Car pool now mandatory along with a 40+ MPG vehicle…Quality of life for them was tough before the food & gas crunch….It just got a lot worse…

But really, Jwhite, the insurance and car payment exist whether you drive the car or not. If gas was $2.00/gallon, according to your analysis, it would still cost $760/month to commute to work ((120 miles/20 mpg)x$2.00/gallon x 5 days/week x 4 weeks/month + expenses). What you are really suggesting is that owning a car costs too much, no matter what the cost of gas. So what’s a person to do?

All commodities are in a bubble. When the dollar is weak, savings returns are under inflation, and stocks are wobbly you find the other safe havens. Metals, Oil, Grains, Pork Bellies, etc. The problem with commodity bubbles is that when they happen it affects everyone on the planet negatively - hence all the rioting lately. Also now we have farmers growing water intensive crops where they should be doing dry land farming etc. Commodity bubbles are rough.

Vm, the original post links an article that shows growing global demand. That’s not a bubble; it is real demand.

Russia just said that their oil fields have peaked. Their words not mine.

Once oil fields peak they go into quick decline. Russia is the number 2 oil producer in the world. The Mexican and British North Sea fields have also peaked.

Add in all of the new cars in China and India and you have demand issues.

Butch: Russia just said that their oil fields have peaked.
reference?

Don’t be silly, demand hasn’t shot up 300 percent in 1 year. Sure we are going through a demand spurt, but it has a lot more to do with people not having anywhere else to put their money than commodities. The entire economy is in a bubble cycle as people rush out of tech and into housing out of housing into commodities. I personally think commodities will get much higher before they go lower because well, that’s what bubbles do, but it’s going to be a rough ride, possibly rougher than housing.

There is a ton of oil on this planet, I grew up in an oil patch that peaked decades before I was born and it’s still producing like gangbusters when the price is right.

If your riding any bubble and close your eyes to it then you aren’t taking advantage of the greater fool you are him.

The big question is where do the pigs put their money when the commodities start crashing.

Watcher, yes real demand will only go up so far till people become resistent to price and demand does not grow that much or actually decreases.

So now we have oil 6x higher than it was 10 years ago. So what happens now? Oh, those old oil fields now look attractive. Deep water drilling now looks attractive (don’t forget that 75% of the Earth’s surface is covered in water.) Tar sands look attractive. Converting coal to oil looks attractive. Turning shale into oil looks attractive (and there is a ton of shale). Cellulosic ethanol begins to look very attractive. Hybrids and electric cars now look very attractive and will only get better. Technology is improving. There are new technologies to convert heat into electricity (think of how hot a car’s engine gets and if that can be captures?).

Don’t forget solar, wind, nucleur. That is what is driving oil higher, fear, and rightfully so, but it can pop quite easily with slowing demand for oil and increasing demand for other fuels that get more efficient every day.

There’s a report out there somewhere today about it (the Russian oil fields), I heard it on the radio this morning.

Blano, that’s a typical scare tactic. They have not even started to drill in Siberia. It dropped 1%, whoopty do. I bet it won’t be that much lower coming up. Not with oil this high.

The CEO if Shell Oil was on Charlie Rose a couple of weeks ago…….said there is a LOT of oil offshore on both east and west coasts, and in government owned land in the US that they are unable to drill for, because of various environmental/NIMBY concerns. His point being that (eventually) a political decision will have to be made on whether getting to this oil is a better idea, than shipping money off to the Middle East at $150/barrel. Said that there are proven reserves for 100 years, at the current rate of consumption.

There is a lot of oil out there that is not viable to pump/obtain at $20/bbl., but makes all kinds of sense at $100/bbl. All the existing wells are pumping, and the drilling rigs are out again in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas.

I hear all the arguments about “Peak Oil”, but the problem is, I heard all these same arguments back in the 70s that the “oil was running out”.

I’m sure it will eventually, but I also know not to underestimate the ingenuity of people to come up with a solution when there is a buck to be made.

Just because Russia’s output fell for year doesn’t mean anything. Their oil reserves are vast, but underexplored due to decades of underinvestment.

Guys, please study the issues before you post, you give peak-oilers a bad name.

And who remembers the “Oil Import Tax”? We needed to protect the US companies instead of importing that cheap foreign stuff.

I live in SE texas and all around me there are new rigs going up every day (probably 10 new rigs within 5 miles of my house), in the middle of a largely residential Houston suburb. I’m sure they’ve known that oil was there for 100 years but its just now become cost effective to get it out.

I don’t think we’ll run out any time soon and around here everyone seems to be spending like crazy; I see hundreds of brand new 1-ton trucks every day (thats the status symbol here on the 3rd coast). I laugh at those fools as I drive my 7-year old regular cab 1/2 ton and pocket $3 or $4 grand a month (hey it even gets 17mpg and uses $3.40 gas not $4 diesel @ 12mpg). Sure I can’t tow an 8-ton gooseneck, but I can haul just as much mulch or lumber as their king ranch 4×4 crew cab, and thats about all the real work most will ever see.

I recall a few years back (2004?) when Shell had to restate its reserve estimates because production at its biggest, most mature fields was declining faster then expected. Didn’t the CEO’s head roll?

Another feature of a bubble is unsustainability, we know that real incomes could not support bubble house prices. Can the World continue to pay $120 for oil indefinitely? I would say, probably yes although this depends largely on how much a US recession affects the rest of the world. US consumption may go down but China, India and the rest will likely keep buying more, especially if the $ keeps falling.

Won’t higher oil prices also affect India and China, placing an inflationary burden on their economies?

I read the story on Russia as well. As with most things you have to wonder if this is true or just Russia trying to jaw the price of oil up. I think we’re at peak oil, but Russia was supposed to be one of the few bright areas. If they have truely peaked hard times are coming.

The key figures to watch are worldwide oil production and consumption. Even these figures are manipulated, but they represent real economic activity. The best way to report that would be a graph going back about 30 years. All the talk about reserves, new discoveries, old oil wells “still producing like gangbusters when the price is right” is misleading to the point of being deceptive.
Saudi Arabian oil production has been essentially flat for some years now. Oil close to record on supply jitters as OPEC refuses world more oil: “In Rome, Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Al Naimi was quoted as saying there was no need ‘to get worked up’ and call for more oil to be put on the market. Saudi Arabia is the cartel’s number one producer.” That excuse would work just as well if (as I suspect) Saudi Arabian oil production is max’d out. A 10% rise in Saudi oil production YOY would be real news.

Remember that with the current destruction of the US dollar, oil price in dollars will show disproportionate rise compared to other currencies.

It’s not just that oil costs 10% more, it’s that the dollar is also worth 10% less.

I think it’s debatable short term, but not long term.

Part of what is going on is our currency depreciating. What would happen if China decided to redeem all its Treasuries for oil and food?

“They’re not making any more land” equals “They’re not making any more oil”?

Gee whiz, are all these posts this morning some kind of signal or what? Slowly, cautiously - this seems like the time to start doing something - lotsa of seasonality at work here too just like there is before every “summer driving season”.

I think it frothy because of the trades,but we are seriously draining our lifeblood,and so now is the rest of the world. I also keep reading the steady drumbeat of war with Iran…even John Mauldin had a whole article last week to the distinct possibility. Yes there is still tar sand etc,but the easy barrel filling seems at a end.

txchick57 wrote:

Of course it is. $700K for a shack in Compton seemed rational at some point as well.

Who were the people that walked away with cash in hand, and who were left holding the bag, when someone paid $700K for that shack?

What matters for the global economy are flow rates. In other words, it’s the size of the tap, not the size of the tank that’s important.
Just as Japan and Korea went from using 1 barrel per person per year to about 17 barrels per person per year as they industrialized, so will China (and India). Do the math in terms of increased use, and then try to figure out where that new production will come from.
But I agree, every additional barrel helps. California coast, ANWAR, Florida, wherever. It’s time to get the rigs in place and start pumping.

What matters for the global economy are is global production, something the media keeps skipping over.

Was the trend your friend in March of 2000 or March of 2003?

No.

My back-testing shows trend following working great in 2003 (except for March and April) with proper position sizing. And I mean positions in commodities, currencies, equities, metals, etc. *Simulated* monthly returns were
2003 11.10 8.23 -3.12 -0.69 7.53 0.42 1.71 4.59 9.17 10.65 3.50 8.73 with 11.36% margin.
We didn’t start trading this account till 2006, so take the numbers as you wish.

Please don’t lambaste me, txchick, you’re the reason I’m so enjoying my QQQQ calls in my personal account, much to my boss’ chagrin.

Remember that in 1970 oil was being sold at $1.26 a barrel and then jumped to $9.40. 1970 was the year US oil production peaked & began to decline.

At least nobody can ever say we started the war in Iraq to get “cheap oil”

There must be a conspiracy to cover up all these conspiracies.

Amelia Earhart was the second shooter on the grassy knoll in Dallas. She was send by Adolf Hitler from his CIA- sponsored Nazi Redoubt in Paraguay. General Motors wanted JFK assasinated because he wanted to bring back the Fish carburator.

Bee-sheet? Prove to me that it isn’t!!!

ah geez!

/tin-foil-hat>

Tin Foil Hat “ON”:
If they wanted to inforce martial law they would need to control transportation. Restriction of movements would need to be imposed. You would have to restrict air travel.
The effect would be similar to one that happens when the FAA issues special maintenance orders.
Heah wait a MINUTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No it is must be a coincidence, this Administration is famous for strict oversight and regulatory enforcement for large corporations. It’s not like this is the first time in 8 years this administration has made corporations spend money to comply with safety issues. Is it?????????????
Tinfoil hat “OFF”
discuss………

I was thinking about that a few years ago. It’s no accident that luxury cars these days are chock full of entertainment: world-class stereo systems, iPod accessories, DVD playes, cell phone chargers, climate control, leather seats, email on the Blackberry…even fussy cup holders for the drive-through Sbux. This is not so different from this different from going home after work and reading the paper in an easy chair, which is what millions of Daddies did in the 50’s.

Only, in the car, you don’t have to worry about being nagged by The Wife! [only problem: no bathrooms in the car.]

Many, many, many men do this.

The car is their sanctuary, their castle, their home away from home and the harpie.

When asked with the obvious question of why do all this, they have no answer.

They also think I am demented for asking the rather obvious question.

being nagged by the Wife (or husband): one of the most popular activities in traffic seems to be flirting with other drivers …

Flirting? Geez, over here we just shoot ‘em.

The car is their sanctuary, their castle, their home away from home and the harpie. Might as well make a virtue of necessity.

The very fact that you consider it a “necessity” speaks volumes.

‘one of the most popular activities in traffic seems to be flirting with other drivers …’

They must be driving WAYYYYY slower than I do.

The very fact that you consider it a “necessity” speaks volumes. I don’t consider it a “necessity.” Stopped commuting over 10 years ago. But many consider the commuting lifestyle a necessity.

[only problem: no bathrooms in the car.]

Niche marketing alert!
Committed commuter model “Depends” undergarments–featuring an easy-remove tab and discrete disposal bag. Party on, Garth!

LOL. I know you are another shoe person but was this you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSIEto2hQ5I

I don’t consider it a “necessity.” Stopped commuting over 10 years ago. But many consider the commuting lifestyle a necessity.

I was referring to the “harpie” not the “commute”

I was referring… These threads get confusing sometimes.

“people choose to live 50-100 miles away from where they work, somewhere they have to drive to 5 days a week”

They drove to the exit ramp with the mortgage they could afford.

I’m looking forward to my freeways clearing up because of high gas prices, but so far they remain pretty crowded.

What they also don’t tell you is that in ENGLAND the cars get 45-60 miles to the gallon..that is a huge difference for comparison to US cars..

commoditys are not in a bubble.

at least not according to my gauge.

i have 3 coworkers that lost a ton in the dot.com and housing bubbles. as of yet they have shown no interest in commodities. but when they do baby…this time…i’m shorten the frack out of it.

What they also don’t tell you is that in ENGLAND the cars get 45-60 miles to the gallon..that is a huge difference for comparison to US cars..

Some do (mostly diesel powered compacts). There are plenty of larger, non diesel powered, cars. Also, Euro cars have been getting fatter over the years. VW Golfs now tip the scales at 3000 lbs. That’s about 50% more than a 1970’s vintage Golf.

“What they also don’t tell you is that in ENGLAND the cars get 45-60 miles to the gallon..that is a huge difference for comparison to US cars.. ”

Please evaluate mpg for England using this relationship:
English Imperial gallon = 1.26 US Gallon

aNYCdj: yes, the average distance in Netherlands is less than in the US, but not much less I think. In my area many people are working 50-100 miles from home. And many of them are driving big SUV’s just like Americans. The Randstad, where most of the work is, is one big traffic jam at work hours. I think the small cars are often used by drivers with lower incomes who work relatively close to home, or as second car for shopping and ‘walking the dog’.

“……average distance in the Netherlands is less than in the US……” I wouldn’t bet on it.

You know you are in flyover country when distances are measured in hours, instead of miles/kilometers.

I’m an American living in Holland. I bike to work, as do most of my coworkers. My manager, though, takes her car on days she has to pick up her kids. My bike cost 65 euros.

It baffles me reading this blog to be reminded of how much Americans think are “necessities” that here are entirely optional. We do just fine with gas at $9.50 per gallon - but nobody drives those crazy 15-20 MPG vehicles that are ubiquitous in America.

Where I think Americans are mistaken is that they confuse owning lots of junk (including an expensive car) with having a good life. Even with the dollar/Euro ratio, I get by amazingly well spending just 400-500 Euros per month between food (nobody eats out), transportation (what car payments?) and health care (it’s not very to provide quality health care for all when you don’t spend trillions on stupid wars like the U.S.)

I miss my train commute into and out of Central London.

I’d have 30 minutes or so to read the paper or a book, listen to the radio, do the crossword, gaze out the window or have a quick nap.

Things that are practically impossible to do when driving a car, even in a jam.

Not to mention that getting to/from/on/off public transport means you walk about 2 miles a day whether you want to or not. Making you healthier, thinner and fitter by default.

Its only with visits to places like San Fransisco, or back home to London, that I realize just how fat and unfit I’ve become since moving to Car-Crazy Los Angeles.

I would love to move back into Manhattan for just the same reason, no car! We lived there 5 years, I left my car at my parents house an hour away. But you are right walking everywhere, plus multiple flights of stairs on the subways…dodging traffic… yes you do get in better shape, and we only moved 2 miles across the East River to queens, but the car is right outside my window. How easy it is not to walk everywhere.
——————————————————-
Its only with visits to places like San Fransisco, or back home to London, that I realize just how fat and unfit I’ve become since moving to Car-Crazy Los Angeles.

Yeah, people forget about water. Availability of fresh water will be very important in the future.

Not just water, but water you can use. Clean water. Water not appropriated to higher priority owners. Moab’s along the Colorado RIver, but none of the city’s drinking nor irrigation water comes from the river. It all comes from local creeks and springs.

No sweetie, I meant that it seems like the MSM whips this story out when it suits them

I once rescued a chicken that fell off a Tyson truck, I named her “Prissy” and kept her in my backyard eating bugs and scratching in the dirt. She rewarded me with the most delicious eggs - one a day for 2 years… Then I ate her.

Not really. She went to chicken heaven- actually considering where she was headed before falling off the chicken truck - I guess she already was there.

I did that too but my birds were roosters. They were great pets. Noisy buggers though.

I hated my neighbors who had roosters.

Grass fed beef has better vitamin and Omega-3 oil content, among other measurable differences. Feeding cows processed grains makes them less healthy, and there is quite a bit of science on that.

Viewing these things as interconnected and as threats may be true in a local area where you are, but is very much not the case in general. Grass fed cows are being raised on large private reserves and in open space districts. Much of this has been going on for a while, but the regulations on slaughterhouses kept it underground. We really love black markets in this country, which I suppose is one way to limit encroachment on free trading.

Saying that the price of food going up is necessarily a problem seems kind of like saying the price of housing going down is somehow a bad thing. Quite a few farmers could make good arguments that their products are worth more than they sold for in recent history, and that potentially echos what we are seeing in the housing markets in a way. Distortions in the marketplace are being worked out as supply and demand rise and fall and balance against each other. This year’s farm bill should be the first that lowers subsidies overall which should give smaller farmers back some of the advantages that larger operators got from optimizing for maximum gov’t giveaways. Prices for some time have been very distorted with less healthy foods getting the biggest artificial boost.

The really big difference between the two commodities is that fresh food is demonstrably healthier than stored food, and storage has limits. Houses get rebuilt every 15-50 years on average which is a lot longer than most food will keep. Because of this food markets at least in theory should have much sharper corrections since oversupply doesn’t sit around for decades.

Mole Man,

I am with you in regards to the benefits, but like anything else, this “crisis” is going to be used to say that the price of this type of beef is going up. This will all because the standard beef now needs to be fed grass instead of corn, so there is more demand for grass.

I think that I need to start watching the future pricing for alfalfa fields, since I am starting to see more demand in this area, hum…

Comment by Jwhite
2008-04-21 05:48:26
I once rescued a chicken that fell off a Tyson truck, I named her “Prissy” and kept her in my backyard eating bugs and scratching in the dirt. She rewarded me with the most delicious eggs - one a day for 2 years… Then I ate her.’

I like your story, jwhite. Except how it ended. Ahh, I guess I don’t mind that part; I eat chickens too.
I grew up on a farm and helped butcher the food. I hope that is a skill I don’t have to re-learn, same as shearing sheep. I hate that, those oily, poop-and-tick decorated, kicking fookers. The only good sheep is one that still lives in Utarrrr, and nowhere near me. I was going to say ‘the only good sheep is a dead one’, but I don’t want one of them around me either.

Alfalfa prices have gone up considerable. Last year we payed $11.95 per bail now it is $15.95 per bail.

My Dad’s a small-time beef farmer (they’re grass fed). He said the bottom fell out of his beef prices in 2005 when Canadian imports were let back in. I haven’t seen a significant rise in the price of beef really. I also just bought boneless chicken breasts for $1.89 a pound at Safeway. Some veggies are high (good cukes and tomatoes) so I’m growing those. I can’t stand cardboard-tasting ones at the store.

I do expect at some point somehow the oil market will snap. There’s a lot more going on here than supply and demand.

Can you make biofuel from hemp? It will grow about anywhere (so I’ve been told)…

I think that you can make ethanol from any type of cellulose plant, for what I know about this switch grass has the potential of being a 10 to 1 improvement over corn and you can get three crops with very little water and it grows in poor fields.

I have not seen any research about hemp, but given the political implications, I don’t know if this will ever fly.

close to where a live a second generation biofuel plant is under construction; it starts producing within a year and can use most cellulose products (depending a bit on mechanical problems). They will probably start with the waste that is left after harvesting corn and similar crops, but certain fast-growing trees and other products that grown on land NOT suitable for food crops are also considered. It’s a pretty advanced system and - of course - they receive almost NO subsidies or research money, while the big and bad plants that use real food (corn etc.) or palm oil get enormous government subsidies.

Hear, hear, Lost - I’m wondering if its about time to repeal the law on commercial Hemp production.

Not only does it grow like a weed in just about any soil, its also valuable as a fibre/wax/oil plant. IIRC there are over 150 commercial uses for Hemp.

Though, of course, the ‘Drugs are Bad, M’Kay’ lobby may need some education.

Even though Hemp isn’t the same species as Marijuana, and has only a fraction of the THC content.

talking about hemp: some guys who became very rich by selling their Dutch online auction site to Ebay are investing their money in production of nettles and various products that are made from this (including clothing). It’s a bit similar to hemp but less controversial. Neighbouring farmers didn’t like the idea at first but I think they are catching on.

The price of MUD for mud cakes in Haiti has gone up 50% in the last year because of the cost of transporting it.

Well maybe people in POOR areas shouldn’t over BREED. You send them food, they will just breed more, and require more food. If you live in the desert with no feed, don’t produce a herd of “starvin’ marvins.”

“Well maybe people in POOR areas shouldn’t over BREED”

The pope was in NYC this weekend,and not a peep from the guy on birth control. Was raised Catholic, but I find this profoundly irresponsible. Also,if you’re hungry, you may not have the money for condoms, etc. Few women in third world countries have the option to just say no to their husbands, whether Catholic, Muslim or tribal areas…and the US currently supports abstinence, not birth control, further limiting these women’s choices. This is serious human suffering, but not an easy one to solve.

VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach:

Well maybe people in POOR areas shouldn’t over BREED. You send them food, they will just breed more, and require more food. If you live in the desert with no feed, don’t produce a herd of “starvin’ marvins.”

Easier to say than to do, when you have no access to either an education, food, or reliable birth control.

People in the developing world aren’t stupid, they’re uneducated, poor and desperate.

The reason so many developing countries have a population ‘problem’ is because a lot of thier kids die in infancy.
In bad years, a lot die, in good years fewer.
Its always been the ‘hedge’ bet for people on the edge - have as many kids as you can, because they’ll help you out in your dotage, if they live long enough.

If you want to stop the vicious cycle, then educate them - at least to the point where they can read, write and do simple arithmetic.

And, provide them with cheap and easy contraception like condoms. And none of this judgemental crap about “Abstinence Only”. You’re asking married adults, in the majority, to stop having sex.
Like, thats going to work….

The WHO ranks the education of GIRLS as it’s #1 way for pulling people out of poverty - educated girls lead to educated women, who are much more capable of making decisions on things like family size, work, food resources etc…

As strange as it may seem to all the people in the west wringing their hands (or being jugdemental a$$hats), the vast majority of women would prefer smaller family sizes, if it meant that their (fewer) kids would a better opportunity to make it to adulthood.

Few women want to be having a baby a year if they could possibly avoid it.

Found out from a friend..do you know what Publix Supermarket does with meat that expires…THEY THROW IT AWAY..bread that is not sold that day..THROWN AWAY..They don’t even give it to employees.. average cost of meat thrown away each week..$3-5K!!!!

Many grocery markets here in the Phoenix area lock the lids to their dumpsters; some markets pour bleach on the discarded food.

What cannot be sold must be destroyed to maintain prices.

I had a discussion last week with the meat/fish department manager at a Fred Meyer’s grocery store here in Seattle about that very issue. He told me they donated expired meats to charity kitchens. Good for them.

Lawyers have a lot to do with this scenario.
Liability issues override compassion in most instances.

I used to get expired meats for the local animal shelter form the store…same with produce - for a friend that fed the wild birds. Most of it is quite edible for humans.

Comment by SteveH
2008-04-21 07:24:23
I had a discussion last week with the meat/fish department manager at a Fred Meyer’s grocery store here in Seattle about that very issue. He told me they donated expired meats to charity kitchens. Good for them.’

I’m just down the road from you, Steve H. Lots of places here in Olympia have got some good waste-reduction programs, too. I approve of this. Waste makes me enraged. It’s wicked and wrong.

there was an interesting documentary about this on BBC television about two years ago. They followed the trail of expired and rejected meat. Most of it ended up for pet food processing, but next to the processing farm was another one that produced human meat products. The meat (most of it was already severely rotten) was treated with stuff like strong acid and bleach (to give it a nice healthy red color) and sold again as fresh (frozen) meat in all kinds of relatively expensive shops in London. Apparently it is edible, but I don’t think it is healthy
I’m sure they do the same in Netherlands because our meat mob is 100% above the law (TV and newspapers don’t dare to touch the subject).

Olympiagal, it drives me crazy too.

I learned in the UK, a few years ago now, that shoe stores (there are a lot of shoe shops in the UK, go figure) will deliberately slash the sole of the shoe before they throw them out.
I mean, god forbid that anyone who’s desperate enough for a pair of shoes, that they’ll trawl a dumpster for them, should be able to find a pair.

They’d rather destroy them than have them going for ‘free’.

Kharma’s going to get us, one day.

The real problem is overpopulation, everything else is a distraction. War Famine Disease = Population control for those who don’t believe in birth control and family planning. Unfortunately the rest of us get dragged down as well.

100% agree!

Geez, Oly, I was doing SO good until I read your very colorful and accurate description…I can almost taste them…gotta get some cookies…animal cookies…cookies..OK, I’m outta here…

Do not underestimate the ability of American and Canadian farmers to produce a glut of farm products.

Oil? I don’t know. We might be burning coal for heat again.

Out here in dinosaur country, lots of people still burn coal. I live about 60 miles from producing coal mines and my rental still has the old Stokermatic furnace, although it now also has propane. If you’ve ever lived in a coal-burning town in the winter, you’ll know what I’m talking about when I say it’s something out of Dickens. And coal smoke has a low level of radioactivity, also.

Wheelin’ out the boogeymen as a means to profit is a punishable crime. Keep on a wheelin’.

it’s something out of Dickens The bright side is that it’s possible to make steam-powered automobiles run on coal. “Chauffeur” originally meant “stoker.”
[The Philion Road Carriage] was patented in 1892, but was never duplicated. The Philion steam carriage is one of the oldest existing American-built “automobiles.”

Thousands of visitors saw Philion’s steam carriage displayed at the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair. Steam was a common motive power then and coal was used as fuel (later changed to oil). A chauffeur sat behind the boiler and was responsible for oiling and maintaining steam. The carriage could be steered from either the front or the rear and a speed of 8 mph was possible.

My beater of a Ford Escort wagon gave up the ghost last week, I finally ran it into the ground. So I scrambled to find another little used wagon I could pay cash for. Lemme tellya, there seems to be a run on small used wagons around these parts. As soon as one is listed on craigslist, it’s gone. Seems like people are getting the word and ignoring the used SUVs and minivans. I did find something, but it wasn’t easy.

I know they make more in the long run (I guess), but why wouldn’t they be happy with cash NOW?? Did he lose a commission or something??

Tx, we ran into just the opposite last summer. The dealer offered no incentive for us financing through his channels vs just paying cash. The interest rates weren’t very attractive either, so we paid cash.

Yeah, there’s a spread between what the consumer pays and what the dealership pays. And I think the finance guy gets a commission. Another good scam is to get them to drop the price of the car by signing up for some ridiculous interest rate and then paying the entire note off after you close.

In this case, the salesperson was a personal friend and I know we paid as close to wholesale as you can get in a Honda.

My buddy got a new Honda Civic SI and he paid cash for it. However, the salesman figured that he would finance, my friend just let him think this durring negotiation. After negotiations were done and they went to sign the contract he (the sales parson) wanted to back out of the price once he learned it was a cash sale. Holly hell was raised that could be heard throughout the sales office……Buddy got the car for his price and paid cash. They are not very cordial to him at the dealer when he comes in for his free servicing that he negotiated though.
It is certain that they would rather have sold to some youngster racer boy with 100% financing running the “risk” that it would have to be reposessed and than they could sell it again.

The best way to lawsuit heaven might be to carefully study all the laws governing car sales, and then go in as a person with low (but doable) credit… wearing a wire.

Did the same thing with our vehicle.negotiated it down to the price we wanted..then gave him our code for the friends and family discount..salesman almost hit the floor..then we said we would pay cash..he fainted..(ok..didn’t faint..but excused himself to the rest room..assumed he gave himself 50 lashes in there)

I’m actually in the market for a vehicle now since the Kid starts driving in 6 months. He’s going to get the 02′ Taurus (w only 52K on the clock) it should last him all the way through school. I’m actually looking for a wagon as well, I miss my old XC-70 AWD - Just not sustainable this far away from a dealer…

Yep same here when we got a new car a few months ago. They guy claimed he was a banker and said I was better off financing at 3.9% and putting the money into savings. 3.9% isn’t bad, but my threshold was 3% so said no thanks. I asked him where I could find something that I could invest in that would provide 3.9% guaranteed and after taxes, and he couldn’t. Maybe a year or two ago when CD’s were giving 6% or so - but now rates are 4-5% at best. Even at 5%, the actual after-tax rate would be less than 3.9% for me; not to mention saving the financing paperwork costs. Plus there’s just something nice mental-health-wise knowing your car is paid off.

This is a case where I hope the market dictates our ‘consumer’ lifestyle. SUV’s and Hummers sitting in the lots. I’m no violent radical except in my mind when it came to those giant guzzlers and polluters but it always ticks me to see those things on the road. Whatever, I can only control my behaviour not those of others. but when I read 5-10 years ago that ice the size of rhode island is breaking and melting off the arctic it should have been a warning to our car makers. Me and mine bought a Toyota Prius cash. Although it’ll take time before we ‘recoup’ our investment (48mpg city) we realize that at least we are not polluting while waiting at a traffic light, it switches to battery on the slow down.

After last purchase done through the internet, we will not buy with the “negotiating” process ever again.
Picked the vehicle we wanted,bells whistles, submitted and paid 39$ for printout of total less incentives etc.
Faxed our bottom line to 10 dealers and poof within one day, 3 dealers said ‘OK’ and brought cash to internet dealer and walked off with car in 1 hour.
WHew. Now that is the way to go.
Sales person not upset, we are not upset.
They have their quotas and we have cash. Done deal.

Even if you buy a car “at invoice” the dealer still gets money from the factory. In the car business, the “front end” is the profit made upfront on the car. The “back end” is when the finance manager “puts the customer on Otis” (as in elevator) in his stuffy little office and tries to extract the real profit: long-term, high-interest financing, Lojack, remote-start systems, undercoating, service contracts, croak & choke insurance, etc. Anyone who falls for that crap gets treated like a king while the finance manager and the general manager are giving each other high fives in the back office.

Bought my ‘07 Element last year and was ready to pay cash, but the 0.9% finance was close enough to zero so took it and am getting much better that 1% return on the money.

That’s not right. Edmund G “Pat” Brown didn’t become governor until 1959.

“Higher population density makes distribution of food, power, etc. more efficient in cities.”

More efficient, yes, but dangerously dependent. City dwellers are virtual prisoners to the “system’s” continual functioning. Any breakdown in utilities, municipal services, fuel, food availability, etc. could spell disaster for those without alternatives. Law and order might be problematic, too.

“IMO most telecommuting jobs won’t allow the time to ‘grow your own’ food on any reasonably large scale, or the people won’t have the expertise to do it.”

First, turn off the TV. People can work on the weekends. We scratched a few rows in a primitive garden area (no tilling, no composting) and dropped in a bunch of zuchini, yellow squash, cucumbers, and pole beans seeds. We had so many veggies that some even went to waste–especially zuchinni and squash! It took only a couple hours to sow the seeds and only a few minutes a day to water and collect our produce.

We also get 4-5 eggs per day (terrific source of protein) from just five chickens and about a gallon of goat milk from just three goats. Garden and animals all reside within a 70×100ft fenced area. For suburban/urban-dwellers, chickens can also be kept in vertical stacking cages in a garage or basement. Grains and oils can be purchased in bulk and easily stored.

I say “just do it”–even a suburban 9-5 commuter can find ways to gain self-sufficiency without hunting or working hundreds of acres.

completely agree….a vegetable garden, when set up intelligently, can be relatively easy to manage. Harvesting is the challenge. But there’s no need to overplant–think of the French kitchen garden model (small #s of seeds, planted in successive sowings). Lots written about it, so lots of resource material for those who are interested.

My brother lives in W. Roxbury MA in a triple-decker. I saw an old photo of his neighborhood taken from the rear 3rd floor porch in the early 1950’s. Every single backyard was completely filled with gardens for vegetables and fruit (mostly grapes). Nowadays nobody grows food in those backyards, the trees have grown huge, shading all the backyards which are now tastefully landscaped. The whole neighborhood is laid out so that the residents could walk a short distance to mass transportation (which is still possible).

But will you eat the frogs?

“People don’t choose to live paycheck to paycheck…”

Some maybe, but some not. The place to start looking for answers, however, is more often in a mirror - than it is the NYT.

Many people make choices which ultimately force them to live paycheck to paycheck.

“The place to start looking for answers, however, is more often in a mirror…”

Ah, yes. If people would just pull themselves up by their own bootstraps blah blah blah. They made poor decisions, CHOSE to be poor. It’s a level playing field, everybody has the same chance to be a millionaire in the good ol’ US of A, hard work, Horatio Alger, etc.

Luckily the wool is finally being lifted from the eyes of many Americans.

My employer doesn’t know one way or the other whether I’m living paycheck to paycheck or not. They just know that the job is a lot more portable than the average individual.

All I know is that every company I’ve ever worked for since 1990 gives everyone 3%/year, mo matter how much you bust ass. (but hey, my department is not a “profit center”…….we are just overhead)

The problem comes in when the REAL INFLATION rate is 5-10% year over the same time period.

3%/year here, 5%/year there, and over 20 years you are talking about REAL MONEY.

Like, duh, a dollar’s a dollar.

Doesn’t matter if it’s white or black, or pink for that matter. Doesn’t matter if it comes from a religious freak or an atheist. Doesn’t matter if comes from a “socially responsible” company, or the most immoral industry alive.

He’s a capitalist.

Or could be a Compoundist from west Texas with lots of wives on our welfare dime.

Capitalist.

find me a human capitalist forming anarchist socialist society..

cast your vote come november.

things that cant happen, will.

There…..or Korea……or…….India…….or Godknows where……

News Flash…..The reason Southwest, Midwest and American Airlines were getting beat up so bad by the Feds. is that they are some of the few airlines that actually try to maintain their own “in-house” maintenance program. Everybody else outsources it.

Northwest had to ground a bunch of their widebody airplanes a couple of weeks ago. Why? The Korean repair shop equipment for checking the altimeters was out of certification, meaning that every airplane that they had inspected using the out-of date equipment was out of certification.

This is only a problem if you are worried about mid-air collisions at cruise altitude…….

Well, you offshore your maintenance and there go the jobs, there go the side businesses. AMR did try that but the mechanics union in Tulsa gave them a better offer and now do maintenance on many other companies.Making money for AMR. That saved their jobs and many many other jobs/businesses.

Again, yep it would be cheaper to offshore, but at what point do we stop allowing this to happen at the detriment of our country?

LOL!