The Housing Bubble

Reuters reports on Florida. “The surprisingly healthy market for oceanfront mansions and palatial condos in Florida, one of the most toxic states in America’s housing meltdown, may finally be showing some cracks. At a recent luxury property auction in Fort Lauderdale, the auctioneer took home after home off the block within moments after opening the bidding when nobody made an offer.”

“On one high-rise condo in the Miami enclave of Williams Island, a 3,100 square foot penthouse previously listed at $5.6 million, he opened bidding at $5 million, lowered his price to $3.5 million, $3 million, $2.5 million, and then closed the auction, all within a minute.”

“‘There’s just not that much enthusiasm or activity in the luxury market,’ said Jack Winston, a real estate analyst in Miami.”

“One man snapped up two bayfront houses in Miami Beach’s pricey Venetian Islands, one for $500,000 and the other for $1 million. The homes sold for $2.75 million and $2 million respectively in mid-2005, according to county records.”

“Guido Teichner, a would-be buyer who said he attended the auction looking to make a killing, put in a $500,000 bid on a two-story, 4,000 square foot (370 square meter) penthouse condo in downtown Fort Lauderdale that had previously been listed at $3 million.”

“The bid…was accepted at auction but still awaited seller approval because it was below the minimum bid. ‘Fifty cents on the dollar is not good enough in this market,’ he said. ‘I don’t think we’ve hit bottom yet so you’ve got to get a real steal to allow for a little remaining downside.’”

The Miami Herald. “Behind the guarded gates of Weston’s toniest neighborhoods sit multimillion dollar estates with lush landscaping, tennis courts and professionally decorated homes with guest quarters. But even in these luxury enclaves, the harsh realities of the struggling housing market are making themselves right at home.”

“‘If you talk to anybody and they say this market isn’t affecting them, they’ve got to be lying. It is affecting everybody — maybe some more than others — but everybody,’ said Robin Cervini, a Realtor in Weston (who) as worked in the area for nearly 15 years.”

“At the beginning of April, Cervini said, there were 107 Weston homes for sale that were priced at more than $1 million in the MLS system Cervini said only 11 homes in that price range have sold since the beginning of the year.”

“Gary Brown has had his 12,000-square-foot, six-bedroom home in Windmill Ranch Estates on the market for more than a year. It’s listed for $6.4 million. He is looking to downsize, perhaps along the water somewhere in Fort Lauderdale.”

“After lowering the price on his home by $1.5 million already, he would be willing to listen to alternative offers.”

“‘I’m guessing there might be somebody whose family is going in the other direction from where I am going — who is looking for a larger home and may not be in a position to acquire something that would turn out to be expensive tax-wise but who would find Weston appealing and trade their house for mine,’ he said.”

“While some people with homes on the market are downsizing, upsizing, relocating or selling for other reasons, Cervini also is seeing many homes going into short sales or foreclosures. Many are investors who bought hoping to flip the homes for a profit.”

“‘They just bought at the wrong time,’ she said.”

The Sun Sentinel. “A master plan that cost taxpayers $185,000 and lays out the framework for that new downtown could be overly optimistic in this economic slump. It calls for at least 1,000 residences centered on a future transit station in downtown Boynton Beach. But home sales have collapsed. New construction has stalled. At least eight planned housing developments remain on hold.”

“According to Metrostudy, there were 2,061 units that were either built or converted to condos in the greater Delray Beach and Boynton Beach area in 2006. A year later, there was a 65 percent decline. A total of 729 units were built or converted in 2007. In the last half of the year, only eight condo units were built.”

“David Levin, a housing consultant and analyst in Delray Beach, is skeptical a formula that paints such an elaborate downtown could work for Boynton Beach: ‘The build it and they will come mentality doesn’t work, not right now,’ he said. ‘There’s a limit to how many Las Olas [Boulevards] and Lincoln Roads you have. How many towns need them?’”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Darrell H. Johnson and Kevin C. Miller of Smith Equities’ special assets disposition group represented Winter Park Residences Corp. in the acquisition of the 209 unsold units in the 256-unit Summerlin at Winter Park Condominiums.”

“The new owners will complete renovations and begin leasing and sales of newly remodeled apartments in the project, creating a hybrid housing complex, Miller said. ‘We’re working on some others, but these are difficult to close,’ Miller said of the partially completed conversions, known in the industry as ‘fractured condo conversions.’”

“The property was converted to condos in March 2006 by Hialeah-based Puig Inc. After the condo market stalled, Puig filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May 2007, and included the property in the filing.”

“The Summerlin was sold out of bankruptcy by Banco Popular, which held the senior debt. The price was $11.8 million.”

“Robert Smith, president of Smith Equities, said managing the mixture of individual owners and renters in a fractured condo conversion presents challenges for the investor.”

“Conversions result in higher property taxes that need to be appealed to reflect the lower value of reverting to rentals, Smith said. Accounting practices also must take into account shared costs and operation of the property between the investor and condo association.”

“Johnson said many potential buyers ‘are still waiting on the sidelines’ looking for ‘fire-sale’ prices, even though deals already can be negotiated at prices below unit-replacement costs.”

The Herald Tribune. “The father-and-son team behind an inventive offer to buy back certain condos they built if the properties lose value in the next three years have no real intention of doing so. Not that they will not honor the deal — they just do not think they will be asked to.”

“‘I have tremendous faith and confidence in this market, especially the Sarasota market,’ said Rob Morris III, who co-owns Ramar Group Cos. with his father, Bob Morris Jr. ‘This is absolutely paradise.’”

“The guarantee applies to 15 unsold units at Phillippi Landings and 25 at the Cape Haze Resort near Boca Grande in Charlotte County. The units range in price from $500,000 to $2.1 million.”

“Bob Morris said that as they sell the units it will provide the capital to build even more condos, which Ramar wants to do as foot traffic to their existing available units is up from last year.”

“‘That doesn’t mean we’ve had more sales,’ Bob Morris said. ‘Our customers are basically afraid to make decisions even though they found a place they like.’”

“Bob Morris had no guess as to when the housing market would turn around, but he does have a good idea what will happen when it does. ‘One of the most foolish things to do is call the bottom. Because when the bottom hits it will launch off and you’ll miss it,’ he said. ‘Once this inventory is sold off prices are going to increase with a vengeance.’”

“Figures from the Florida Association of Realtors show that condo sales during February were down 24 percent, with 210 units selling in Sarasota-Bradenton. The median sales price of $211,500 was down 41 percent when compared with the same time in 2007.”

“In the Charlotte County-North Port market, the association reports that sales were down 20 percent, with 24 units selling. The median sales price was $110,000, down 20 percent from the same time a year ago.”

“If you own or plan to buy a condominium, an ominous new phase of the mortgage credit squeeze could be looming on your horizon.”

“As a result of underwriting changes by giant investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, plus severe new restrictions by private mortgage insurers, getting a loan on a condo unit — or even refinancing one you already own — could prove tougher than you imagined.”

“For example, starting May 1, AIG United Guaranty, a major private mortgage insurer, no longer will write coverage on condominiums in hundreds of ZIP codes across the country that it designates as having ‘declining’ market conditions. The ban is irrespective of applicants’ credit scores, assets or equity stakes.”

“Even in the healthiest real estate markets, United Guaranty will require buyers to put at least a 10 percent down payment into the deal, and will reject applications on units in condo projects where more than 30 percent of the owners are investors.”

“‘It’s ridiculous,’ said Phil Sutcliffe, principal of Project Support Services, who helps put together condominium project financings for developers.”

“For instance, said Sutcliffe, the new Fannie guidance requires loan officers to make certain that at least 10 percent of a condominium project’s current operating budget is reserved for ‘capital expenditures and deferred maintenance.’”

“Sutcliffe, who has analyzed condo project budgets for two decades, says there are no wiggle-room provisions in the guidance for ‘compensating factors.’”

“Freddie Mac spokesman Brad German acknowledged that the changes would make condo unit loans ‘more labor and paper intensive for the lender,’ but said weak sales, growing numbers of financially troubled projects, and declining property values made them necessary.”

“‘Even if you had an 800 FICO score and 50 percent equity,’ said Jeff Lipes, president of Family Choice Mortgage Corp., ‘you still might not be able to get a condo loan’ under certain circumstances.”

“Bruce A. Calabrese, president of Equitable Mortgage Corp., said ‘everybody is really backing off condos; because of all the restrictions and changes.’”

“He said he personally owns two condo units — one in Florida, another in Myrtle Beach, S.C. — and even though he is in the mortgage industry, ‘I don’t think I could refinance either of them right now if I tried.’”

The News Herald. “Bay County foreclosure listings jumped again in March, and a spokesman for RealtyTrac said Wednesday that Florida could expect more of the same in the coming months. There were 160 March foreclosure filings in Bay County, a 162-percent increase from the same month in 2007. There were 119 in February.”

“The increase in filings has kept Joe Baranowski busy. He manages a Carillon Beach-based company that assists buyers and sellers in the short sale process and negotiates with banks to avoid foreclosure proceedings.”

“Also a real estate agent with Panama City’s Keller Williams Realty, Baranowski said he was introduced to the short sale pro-cess through personal experience. Baranowski said he ran into financial difficulties with construction projects in the Water-Color and WaterSound developments.”

“‘Those projects were basically unsellable,’ he said.”

“Baranowski said he refers to each foreclosure-related short sale opportunity as a ‘project.’ The company currently has 90 active projects, the most since he started the business. ‘I think that this will continue for the next couple of years at a high rate,’ he said.”