Floating On The Bottom
The Ahwatukee Foothills News reports from Arizona. “No one says that the Arizona housing market has recovered, but it just may be that the free-fall of values and glacial sales have bottomed out, at least according to some real estate agents and the Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business. ‘A lot of homes are now priced right, which is helping,’ said Dawn Workman, an Ahwatukee Foothills resident and East Valley real estate agent.”
“For R.G. Argabright, also an East Valley real estate agent, the market is still tough, but he sees some positives with prices holding steady. ‘We may be floating on the bottom, (instead of falling),’ Argabright laughed. ‘The only negative we have is the darn foreclosures.’”
“Workman has done the classic of turning lemons into lemonade, by offering tours of foreclosed properties to generate sales. ‘I’ve been selling a lot of foreclosures lately.’”
“Workman said that it’s not uncommon for a 1,800-square-foot three-bedroom, two-bath home to sell for under $100,000. But financing may still put the brakes on the recovery, if there even is one.”
“Argabright said the days of 100 percent financing are gone and that prospective home buyers need around 5 percent down, or $5,000 for every $100,000 of home, and must have good credit before they can expect a home loan.”
The Arizona Republic. “Home values have dropped about 20 percent Valleywide since the bubble burst over a year ago. Power Ranch in Gilbert is one of the more extreme examples — real estate flippers drove prices for a 4,500-square-foot home as high as $875,000 two years ago. Then came the bust, catching many home flippers short.”
“Ivano Panelli can see a line of for-sale signs blocking the view from his home. ‘This has been for sale for three years, right here,’ he says, pointing at the vacant home next door.”
“Today the bank is selling that home for $479,000. The owners of the home across the street – the very same model – paid $875,000 two years ago.”
“‘The whole subprime crisis is literally melting all over the place,’ says Anthony Sanders, a professor of fiinance and real estate at Arizona State University.”
“Home-building permits in metro Phoenix were flat again in March as the housing market continued to search for a bottom. Last month, 1,278 new-home permits were issued Valley-wide, RL Brown’s Phoenix Housing Market Letter reports.”
“‘We think that the evidence is building that we are seeing the bottom of the new-home market in the metro Phoenix area,’ Brown said.”
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “An analysis of 4,754 floor plans shows a 9 percent increase in price over the past four months, while 60 percent saw prices remain unchanged.”
“Some builders raising prices are trying to create a sense of urgency for buyers, said John Fioramonti, senior managing director of Meyers Builder Advisors in Scottsdale. Fioramonti said one developer in north Scottsdale has seen a big jump in foot traffic through the sales office, but people aren’t taking the plunge. They’re waiting for prices to drop further, he said.”
“‘The builders are trying to create a sense of the bottom has been hit,’ he said.”
“The hammering and drilling have stopped, the sales office is shut down and rumors are rampant in homeowner Andrew Kerr’s Maricopa neighborhood. About two weeks ago, financially strapped builder Engle Homes closed its Province sales office and 11 other field offices Valleywide, also removing the communities from its Web site.”
“Now, residents like Kerr worry what will become of their partially finished community. ‘There’s a certain level of frustration and anxiety,’ he said. ‘A lot of people really understand there’s nothing they can do about the situation.’”
“Local industry analysts say the closures are the first sign that a builder could bail. ‘That’s the lifeblood,’ said John Fioramonti. ‘Everything else doesn’t matter if you don’t have sales.’”
“Roughly 880 out of more than 1,500 homes planned at Province were sold as of February, according to the research firm. Valleywide, Engle’s more than 30 communities have been averaging 1.7 sales a month, compared with three to five sales for other builders, Fioramonti said.”
“Engle’s financial troubles aren’t unique in a flagging housing market and economy. Valley Builders have been dumping thousands of home lots to free up cash and placate anxious stockholders.”
“Capital Pacific Homes recently sold 209 lots in Maricopa to a local investor for $4.9 million, according to Business Real Estate Weekly.”
“Province homeowner Linda Demain said she believes Engle has been straightforward and doesn’t listen to the rumors whirling around the neighborhood. Engle has put a lot of time and effort into this project and, hopefully, it will be able to see it through, she said.”
“It doesn’t do any good to worry, she said. ‘Honestly, what choice is there?’ she said. ‘You can’t stay home and brood every day.’”
“Half of all homes sold in Pinal County last month were bank-owned, compared with 37.5 percent in January, according to local analyst RL Brown. In Maricopa County, 22.3 percent of all sales were homes that had been repossessed by lenders.”
“Last year’s wave of foreclosures has only grown in 2008 with thousands of Valley families defaulting on their mortgages every month. Agents say the banks have so many foreclosures and REOs to deal with that it’s sometimes taking months to get a response on a short sale offer.”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “Like many Las Vegas residents in search of a sweet deal on a foreclosed home, Mike Simpson walked away disheartened and discouraged after wasting his time at a recent foreclosure auction.”
“The starting bid for the six-bedroom house on half an acre near Alta Drive and Valley View Boulevard was $219,000. Simpson was prepared to offer $375,000. To his surprise and without prior notice, the home was pulled off the auction block.”
“‘Come to find out somebody made a deal with the bank and the deal fell through,’ Simpson said. ‘I spent 21/2 hours there on a Saturday. Why didn’t they put it on the deletion list when I first walked in?’”
“‘The banks are ready to rock and roll,’ said Dave Webb, CEO of (auction firm) Hudson & Marshall. ‘If it’s a reasonable offer, they’re ready to take it. Now, they’re not idiots. They’re not going to take 40 cents on the dollar…The longer these properties stay on the market, the more motivated they are.’”
“The latest foreclosure statistics from Foreclosures.com showed 6,152 preforeclosure filings for Clark County in March, more than double the 2,813 filings in the same month a year ago.”
“One buyer who requested anonymity said real estate agents are biased in their assessment of auctions because buyers don’t need their services. She was able to buy a Pulte home in Southern Highlands at a Hudson & Marshall auction last year for $278,000, or about $102 a square foot. The bank was cooperative and did not try to ‘jack up the price,’ she said.”
“Her second-choice home also closed escrow at the auction price of $283,500. It had sold a year earlier for about $500,000.”
“Banks that have properties for sale sometimes place ’shills’ in the audience to bid the price up, said Ron Clark, CEOof Rainbow Equity Investments in Oceanside, Calif. ‘Auctions can be a very treacherous place for a novice with a full-time job,’ Clark said. ‘You walk into an arena where you’ve got some slick, sharp operators. There’s all kinds of ways to fleece the guy who’s a novice and thinks all those banks are in trouble.’”
“With foreclosures mounting and the housing market reeling, banks should be ‘humbled’ and welcoming people with open doors, Clark said. ‘They’re not there yet. They will be in six months or a year,’ he said.”
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. “Southern Nevada’s building boom is bust and the foreclosure chickens are home to roost. Some industry experts now wonder if other consequences arising from the valley’s long golden age of construction are also coming back to haunt valley consumers.”
“The number of local construction-defect lawsuits has risen alongside the valley’s population. County officials say that at the height of the building boom some inspectors were doing as many as 70 inspections a day.”
“In response to reports that county building inspectors were conducting as many as 120 inspections a day during 2004 and 2006, Clark County Director of Development Services Ron Lynn said those numbers never got higher than between 60 and 70.”
“‘They might have been given that workload, but they weren’t expected to do all those,’ he said of the 120 figure.”
“‘The problem is when you get to frame inspections, structural inspections, or the roof,’ said construction consultant Neil Opfer. ‘That will take more time.’”
“But even for the least time-consuming inspections, Opfer said the idea that one inspector would face 120 assignments a day stunned him. ‘That blew my mind,” the consultant said. ‘I think it is hard to do 120 a day and even have any type of quality. What’s happening to get those numbers is they are just doing a real spot check.’”
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Maybe this is Las Vegas’ version of the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the commercial real estate market. Last week, NAI Horizon confirmed speculation to In Business Las Vegas that the commercial brokerage has closed its Las Vegas office.”
“Terry Martin-Denning, chief operating officer with NAI Horizon in Phoenix, which oversaw the Las Vegas office, cites the economy as the reason behind the closure. The slowdown started 18 months ago, and there haven’t been enough deals to sustain the operation, and activity continues to trend downward, she says.”
“‘The current investors have fed the beast as much as they can,’ Martin-Denning says. ‘I think we are seeing a lot of shakeout, and no one knows what’s going to happen. There are a lot of uncertainties with the economy. You have seen some title companies that rely on real estate transactions downsizing or closing.’”
“‘We hear disturbing news about the gaming industry, and the latest revenues are down for the first time. Gaming brings people and people need offices. The whole focus of the economic base in Las Vegas is gaming. That news was a concern,’ Martin-Denning says.”
“A once red-hot concept that had investors salivating about the prospect of owning a piece of the Strip has cooled considerably. The idea behind buying a condo hotel was having a place one could call home, yet having help making their mortgage payments.”
“The problem is the expectations of the buyers of condo hotel units aren’t being met with revenue from the city’s first two projects - the Platinum and Signature, a partnership of MGM Mirage and Turnberry.”
“That led to a lawsuit by more than 40 investors who claim they were defrauded because they were promised profits from rental income and told by sales agents how the value of their units were likely to increase.”
“‘It is not a concept for this time,’ said Paul Murad, a real estate broker and author of ‘Manhattanizing Las Vegas.’ ‘It is a very difficult to finance if you are a developer and much more difficult for end users. In some cases, it is nearly impossible. Lenders are asking people to double their down payments.’”
“Murad said he has talked to investors who are planning to walk away from their deposits on condo hotels because the units have already depreciated and won’t be the investment opportunities once imagined.”
“Murad, who recently hosted a condo hotel symposium in Las Vegas, said a lack of understanding by lenders is contributing to the problems. Unlike a straight condo project, there is the variable of a hotel and that raises questions about how it will be managed.”
“‘Buyers are much more difficult to find,’ Murad said. ‘A lot of people have been burned on other condo hotel projects. The problem is their revenue expectations were unrealistic. They were caught up in the hype.’”
“The concept hasn’t turned into what Phoenix-area resident Adam Goodman envisioned when he bought four units at Platinum. He said he learned it works for someone wanting to own a vacation resort and generate some income whenever they are not there.”
“Barbara Granati-Smedley, a residential real estate broker in Las Vegas, said she bought her condo in Trump for use when her children come visit, but she also views it as an investment. She said she hopes that having her unit in the rental pool will help cover a portion of the mortgage.”
“‘I look at it as a great investment over a period of time,’ Granati-Smedley said. ‘It can’t do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project. But this is not for someone who is not a risk-taker.’”
“Las Vegas real estate investor Glenn Pantone said he has shied away from the concept, which doesn’t make sense as an investment to him. If someone pays $500,000 for a condo and the owner and hotel split the revenue 50-50, the hotel would need a 85 percent occupancy at $225 a night to break even. That’s counting a 20 percent down interest-only loan, he said.”
“‘If it doesn’t appreciate, there is no way to make money,’ he said.”
The Daily Herald from Utah. “Even though new home construction in northern Utah County has slowed dramatically, it could take longer for Lehi, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain to get rid of their glut of unsold new homes because of a significant slowdown in sales in the first quarter, according to a report by Newreach.”
“The number of unsold new homes and condominiums in Utah County skyrocketed 275 percent to 982 in the first quarter from a year ago, and is down slightly from 987 in the fourth quarter. Lehi led the state for the second consecutive quarter with the greatest number of unsold new homes, accounting for a whopping 263 units, followed closely by Saratoga Springs with 204 units and Eagle Mountain with 157 units.”
“‘Lehi, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain had the lion share of homes under construction. The sheer amount of developable land in northern Utah County meant it has been a haven for builders. But as the market started to slow down, home sales also plunged in those cities,’ said Todd Cook, Newreach’s VP of research.”
“The median asking prices for all existing residential types in March fell 12.7 percent to $289,900, from $331,913 a year ago, according to the Utah County Realtors. New home sellers also recognize that pricing is an issue, and are making adjustments accordingly, Cook said.”
The Deseret News from Utah. “About 6 percent fewer Salt Lake County new homes and condos went unsold in the first quarter compared to the 2007 fourth quarter, but far more new homes are lingering on the market than a year ago.”
“Statistics released by Salt Lake-based Newreach indicated that 977 new homes and condominiums were unsold in the first quarter, down from a record 1,037 in the prior quarter. But the first-quarter total last year was less than half that, at 437.”
“How quickly the inventory is depleted depends on prices, Jason Eldredge, executive VP of sales for Newreach. added. The number of units below $325,000 will likely shrink, because they’re still considered affordable.”
“‘There’s still a fair amount of complete and unoccupied (homes),’ Eldredge said, ‘but we believe that by year-end, people who are looking for deals in this sub-325 bracket might be disappointed.’”
“The combined underconstruction and new-but-unsold figure of 2,088 represents about a nine-month supply of new housing inventory in Salt Lake County, based on 715 new-home closings in the first quarter.”
“‘The worst thing we could have had happen was to have the building sector continue to slap new homes down without any buyers,’ Eldredge said. ‘If you look at data in Nevada and Idaho, Utah looks great. The worst subdivision I’ve seen in Utah has 25 to 30 homes sitting there vacant with ‘for sale’ signs. In Boise, it wasn’t uncommon to see 50-to-100-lot subdivisions, all finished, new, vacant. The same in Vegas. They continue to build. It’s amazing.’”
‘It is not a concept for this time,’ said Paul Murad, a real estate broker and author of ‘Manhattanizing Las Vegas.’ ‘It is a very difficult to finance if you are a developer and much more difficult for end users. In some cases, it is nearly impossible. Lenders are asking people to double their down payments.’
‘I look at it as a great investment over a period of time,’ Granati-Smedley said. ‘It can’t do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project. But this is not for someone who is not a risk-taker.’
‘I look at it as a great investment over a period of time,’ Granati-Smedley said. ‘It can’t do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project. But this is not for someone who is not a risk-taker.’”
“Las Vegas real estate investor Glenn Pantone said…if someone pays $500,000 for a condo and the owner and hotel split the revenue 50-50, the hotel would need a 85 percent occupancy at $225 a night to break even. That’s counting a 20 percent down interest-only loan, he said.’
‘If it doesn’t appreciate, there is no way to make money,’ he said.’
Don’t forget the opportunity cost of the down payment genius. I think at good times the occupancy in Vegas is around 60%, and now gaming is going into the hole. Construction follows and good bye Vegas economy. But oh, how we were lectured on this by the trolls.
Condotels were always a housing mania by product and little more than a ponzi scheme. As luck would have it, Trump pressed ahead when the big boys stopped. We should have some fun watching him squirm.
For Phoenix, 12,000 new housing starts in a years is a disaster. And it’s still too many. The state killed the affordable housing golden-goose. Note to the REIC down south; there’s only one way out of this mess and it is houses at less than half what people are paying today.
Ben,
Definitely a “by product” of the boom. I don’t recall having heard about “condo-tels” in the 80’s or 90’s? Anyway it doesn’t matter. The real reason this scheme could never work is that there was absolutely NO incentive on the part of the developer to promote, fill and service your condo-tel! ( Hell, they already GOT yo’ money! ) I guess you’d have to look at the avg. cost per unit to build a hotel room on the Strip and take the math from there. Whatever “the number” is, I’m pretty sure it’s not $500,000.
I was approached to look at some on the Oregon Coast in Lincoln City ( which actually has a casino ) and even at 165k it just didn’t pencil out.
We had some in Texas during the 80’s boom and again during this bubble. The one’s I remember most were hotel units on the coast you bought and the management rented out for you. They are still there, being sold and re-sold as the ‘owners’ get disgusted and want out. And guess what? The hotel is nice enough to let you use their in house agent to handle the transaction.
The biggest joke? After build-out, the real ongoing money is in the hotels food and bar services. And the ‘owners’ never get a piece of that, they just pay it.
Now I never thought of that? Are we business “partners” on this or what? When I asked a few pointed questions of the agent it was obviously an impulse purchase sales approach. So rather than address my positive cash-flow concerns he just kept throwing down the gauntlet by continously saying “Why don’t you just make an offer!” Dude, you can’t even answer my most basic questions about the mechanics of the operation but YOU expect ME to make an offer?
My biggest issue with condo’s, condo-tels and anything else that involves “investment by committee” is there are always these “open ended” arrangements where by any add’l and unforeseen expenses are borne by… well, YOU! ( For the good of us ALL of course )
Condotels = new innovative way to fleece the small investor.
Condotels = new innovative way to fleece greedy morons.
Anyone stupid enough to ‘invest’ deserves to lose everything.
‘It can’t do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project.”
How do folks put the word “quality” in the same sentence with Trump? Look at the stuff he’s built in NY–glitzy, yes, flashy, yes, quality??–no freaking way. His little Trump city on the far west side is a barren outpost…largely bought by foreign investors, and you can wander thru it looking desperately for a newstand or a cup of coffee, since the retail storefronts are largely empty and unrented now, and have been for years.
being “trumped”
I trumped” him will have new meaning
Just back from a nice kayak trip down the Colorado River…
We spent last night @ the Hacienda casino, near Hoover Dam, and our room was just $24.95. This morning an envelope was slipped under the door with a note, saying we could stay there one more night for just $15.95.
You can almost feel the desperation in the greater Vegas area, and you can certaintly see it…
““‘I look at it as a great investment over a period of time,’ Granati-
Fill in the blanks!
Smedley said. ‘It can’t do anything but appreciate given that it is a quality Trump project.”
A [blank] and her [blank] are soon [blank]ed.
Utah’s job growth dipped to 2.3 percent in February.
The number of home foreclosures in Utah jumped nearly 52 percent in February compared to 2007 data.
Utah is now in 15th place on the nationwide foreclosure listing - up from 22 in January.
One Utah household in 678 was the subject of a notice of default or notice of trustee sale or foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank.
Utah had 1,288 properties falling into the designated foreclosure categories in February.
Utah ranked fifth in the nation for mortgage fraud and state leaders have vowed to crack down on the problem. A report by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute determined that the Beehive State had a high incidence of people committing mortgage fraud. The most common types of fraud included misstating income or employment history and falsifying financial information.
(data from the Utah Dept. of Workforce Services)
‘Utah ranked fifth in the nation for mortgage fraud and state leaders have vowed to crack down on the problem. A report by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute determined that the Beehive State had a high incidence of people committing mortgage fraud. The most common types of fraud included misstating income or employment history and falsifying financial information.’
What?! I grew up in Utarrr! Mormon-Land! Refuge of virtue and the commandment-following, stuffed chock-a-block full with the Righteous of Zion! You must be WRONG.
As it happens, and this is so convenient, I am this minute having breakfast with Sweet Baby Jeebus, I just ran into Him, and I’m going to show Him these nonsensical and scurrilous claims, so He can set us all straight with the truth. Back in a tick.
Olympiagal
thanks for your enlightening and original post!
Well, I told Him all about it, and hotly denied that anyone in Utarrr could EVER do wrong, especially lying and defrauding, and He choked on His coffee and started laughing heartily. In fact, He laughed so hard He slobbered whipped cream all over the front of the toga thingie He usually wears.
What does that mean?
“Protestants don’t recognize Catholicism, Jews don’t recognize Islam, and Mormons don’t recognize each other in strip clubs and liquor stores…” Sorry…
LOL
Know way to many gay mormon men who either came out and went back in, or are still out and not allowed to participate in the church.
This church as so much compassion. Didn’t they just allow blacks into their churchs a few yrs ago?
Well, none of em/religions/churchs are pure, but just thinking, I won’t look so good in pastel prairie dress. And that hair?
“And that hair?”
You need at least two co-wives to do it.
Here’s one a Mormon told me:
Q: Why should you always go fishing with two Mormons?
A: If you go with one, he’ll drink all your beer.
Visiting Utah for training a few years back, the Deseret News had a story on Utah’s high bankruptcy rate, which it attributed to “keeping up with the Youngs,” so to speak.
And don’t forget the Smiths. Salt Lake City: the City of Part-Time Saints…
Hahahaha! You’re funny!
So does that mean that the other 14 states that have a greater percentage of Catholics, Protestants, Islamist, Jews, and atheist are even more into mortgage fraud?
Whether it was 70 “inspections” or 120 really doesn’t matter. At those volumes that’s about 7 minutes per building site ( based on an 8 hr. day ) Granted many could well have been directly adjacent but… “Someone” was going to be paying 300-500-750k+ and it’s incredible to me that once you’ve gotten out of the truck, grabbed your clipboard and coffee cup much if anything more than a quick walk-through could have been done?
Again, my general rule-of-thumb is don’t even LOOK at any home that was built, bought or even re-financed during “the boom”. You owe yourself that much.
I agree, and it’s a point the MSM have completely missed. They want us to line up to pay half price for Vegas and Arizona mcmansions that will probably fall apart in a few years. I was stunned when I took pictures at a local subdivision in 2006. The place was crawling with teenagers that didn’t even know how to hold a hammer. And a supervisor just drove around from time to time not even getting out of the truck. These were $400-800k houses.
If they didn’t know how to hold a hammer, thank doG they weren’t holding a nail gun.
As much as I like to whine about government and gov employees I have to say my department still does high quality building inspections. We have the scars and bruises to prove it. As inefficient and lazy as the overall organization is, I’ve always had the support of the elected officials. I schedule no more than one inspection per 30 minutes per inspector (unless there are multiple inspections in the same location). In that 30 minutes they are responsible for travel time, data entry, plan review and all necessary throw-downs with ignorant builders.
My younger brother lives in Ahwatukee. He bought in 1999 and their place has more than doubled in worth since than (even factoring in the fall back in value). My brother and his neighbors (I’ve heard discussing it) are convinced this is the bottom, and they will all soon be seeing their home values rise. Everyone has new, shiny vehicles in their driveways/garages. They got the Wii’s, the granite, the front-loading washer and dryers. The middle-class Ahwatukee dream. Wonder if they’re in for a big letdown?
As recently as this past fall, I still heard local people talking about doing cash-out refis to buy toys. The reason so many are clueless in Arizona is the press, IMO. They just leak out little snippets. We have a bunch of every type of housing bubble by-product; overbuilding, land prices stuck in fantasy world (primarily the state gov), the parade of FBs, stalled half-finished condo towers, condotels.
So Ben, what’s happening in your local stomping grounds these days? It seems like prices have still been declining in NAZ but nowhere near as fast as the rest of the state.
I noticed that the NAAR has stopped updating their “weekly” newsletter. It’s been over a month now. Maybe they’re trying to limit the bad news getting out?
Preach it, Ben! Here in Tucson, I’m seeing a lot of faith in the notion that the real estate market is about to bottom out.
Then, after that mythical bottom has been reached, house prices will just start marching upward again.
But, alas, local jobs continue to pay poorly, and our local economy could best be described as sluggish.
Not to worry, say the real estate people. Those hordes of retiring Baby Boomers will swoop in and buy up our real estate.
Or, if it isn’t the Boomers, well, it’s the foreign investors. They will come in and buy, buy, buy! Thereby halting our home price slide.
Slim,
Well said. If you look at the outrageous run-up in virtually all bio-pharma stocks in the 90’s it was all in anticipation of an aging boomer society increasingly dependent on longevity and “lifestyle” drugs. Well the biotech’s got hit nearly as hard as tech’s but that doesn’t mean by any measure that you can exploit basically the same play for a second round of profitability? How? We already have more E.D drugs than you can shake a stick at!
ED drugs, DinOR? Shaking a “stick” at the ED drugs?
Being funny again!
desertdweller,
It was just one of those things where once you hit “Add comment” you can’t take it back!
But the point is any REIC Dreamer out there thinking there’s going to be a “Round 2″ based on the SAME demographics and SAME fundamentals has absolutely got to be kidding themselves.
Strangely, a couple I know from the Frozen North actually moved to your part of the woods recently. I believe there is some retirement community that is targeting elderly academics (?).
I can’t believe how many boats I see for sale around here in the $25,000 plus range, some even in the mid $30k. What kind of idiot pays that kind of money for a boat that gets used what maybe 7 or 8 weekends per year? And not to forget it takes what, like $300 a day by the time you tow it and run around in the thing? How many equity wallets were just bleeding for useless expensive boats? One thing is for sure, they are NOT making more lakes!!
Believe this or not, I still see having a (an ?) houseboat as a possible solution to the 2nd/vacation home/rolling bubble problem. Prices of live-aboards have remained pretty constant all during the bubble and like all MEW-funded consumption are now coming down in price. Would living on a 54′ double-deck houseboat on Lake Mead during much of the Oregon winter be the worst thing that happened to a guy? ( Can’t beat the property taxes? ) Cell phone and wi-fi internet access, cooler, swim trunks, check!
hey DiNOR
that houseboat coment is a hellova an idea/wonder what the Florida situation is on that? I remember seeing a lot of small sailboats anchored long-term in the bay at Sarasota when bicycling out that way. people lived aboard & used a small dingie to ferry themselves and supplies back n forth. always was an interesting concept . ..
it must really drive the local govt crazy as these nomads are exempt from the usual ‘raft’ of taxes!
Well, the way the drought is going here in the SW, you may not be able to dock it…
A boat is a “big hole in the water that you throw your money into!”
Locally I’ve witnessed the “price raised” listings in effort to create urgency and a false bottom. It ain’t working, but it does show they’ll stop at nothing to rape their next victim. Yeah, they’re looking after you all right
I am currently living in Utah after relocationing from Az. I am constantly amazed at the prices that people here are asking for homes here. There is no longer a link between housing prices and local incomes. People are willing to pay 300-400k for a house in Nothern Utah and comute 45-90 minutes to work. Utah is headed for the same direction that Az was a year ago. I can’t wait to see the collaspe firsthand ….AGAIN.
I agree. We also moved to SLC from Phoenix last year, and housing prices are way out of line here.
I’m actually willing to pay $300-400K for a house…but the houses that *should* be in that price range are asking $500-700K. I can look up what they sold for 3-4 years ago, and they were in the $300-$400K price range back then. It seems as though all sellers feel they are entitled to at least a $200,000 profit.
What’s really comical to watch are the flips on the Draper bench that sold for $600,000, then nine months later for $900,000, then six months later went on the market for $1,250,000…never sold, and now bank-owned for $900,000. What a steal! Not.
Draper Bench - be ready for the big slide when the next earthquake hits in SLC - long overdue. You guys are sitting smack on top of the Wasatch Fault.
LOL, You took the words out of my mouth. That bench looks like it will liquify if that big quake they’ve been predicting for the last 20 years ever happens. On the plus side, the ex-homeowners can go to the other side of the hill and pick up a nice new tent to live in, from Cabelas.
Lost,
I know! That hill looks like an accident waiting to happen. I grew up in San Francisco on a house built on stilts, so it’s pretty obvious that people will take a risk (and pay a premium) for a view, but the Draper south mountain view is of I-15, IKEA and the prison. I guess at night you can’t tell…you just see the twinkling lights! (smile)
OMG OMG. I live here. On the stupid-ass Draper bench. I hate hate hate hate it. Every other car is a hummer or escalade. Thank you for saying these beautiful things. Of course an earthquake would not only destroy the statement-mobiles, but also humans so I really don’t want an earthquake to happen all that much. But I never resented my Mormon heritage as much as I do now that I’ve spent a year here. OlympiaGal, I think I know where you may have developed your passion against our people and I must say in our defense: I got nothin’. Rail away, sweetie. Rail away.
And now the developer of the Traverse Ridge blight in Draper has defaulted, although the press accounts all seemed to say not to worry…
Moved out of Sandy 6 years ago this summer, sold a home on the east bench that was months from being mortgage free. Couldn’t afford to move back now.
“It doesn’t do any good to worry, she said. ‘Honestly, what choice is there?’ she said. ‘You can’t stay home and brood every day.’”
Well, you can also go to the office and brood, every day. How about do it half and half? With some partial brooding on the drive to and fro. Or, you could do it like this lady evidently does it: get out and just run around the world like a stupider Pollyanna.
Has brooding really reached a top? I say the brooding index will reach a new high by the year end. I am currently long on brooding.
“The banks are ready to rock and roll…If it’s a reasonable offer, they’re ready to take it. Now, they’re not idiots. They’re not going to take 40 cents on the dollar”
Wait, do they want the reasonable offer (40 cents on the dollar) or not? I’m so confused.
No, they’re not idiots. Soon they’ll be taking 20 cents on the dollar.
Soon they’ll be taking 20 cents on the dollar
..at which point, since RE is gonna be boned for a decade, I suppose i may as well be buying banks at 20 cents on the dollar..
“They’re not going to take 40 cents on the dollar.”
Then let them rot in hell.
Or, let them rot in their ugly, shoddily-built houses. That’d be worse, because at least Hell is warm and has all those cute goats wandering around, plus free coffee. Is what I heard.
Mmmmmmm. Free coffee.
Problem is that it’s always decaf.
and the coffee’s cold…and is brewed in 7-11 stores.
hey there . . . 7-11 and jack in the box make my favorite coffee . . . way way better than starbucks! of course it does need to be hot . . . and fresh . . . (how can you resist the cute graphic of Jack on the side? or the info that: “Warning: Hot Coffee is Hot”. Guess I’m lucky I like cheap coffee . . .
No, Oly, don’t you remember the end of “The Black Hole”? The Black Hole sent the crew through hell and it was full of flames and hooded sad people, and then there was the robot that had merged with the bad guy and he stood up all alone on the rock. I didn’t see any cute goats, nor did I see coffee makers. There was a lot of wailing and gnashing teeth.
But then they made it through and went to Heaven (which looked boring, just a long blue hall) and then came out on the other side. Whew!
‘I didn’t see any cute goats, nor did I see coffee makers.’
Well, um, jeeze, Steve. Your arguments are cogent. Let’s see… I know! The goats had taken the coffee makers and were hiding, is how it was! Goats are cunning. We all know that. And now they’re in charge of all the coffee in Hell.
This is gonna go badly, I predict.
HMSL!!!!
(holding my sides laughing)
They are not idiots? Really? Then why did they lend out money with 0 down? It seems to me they are a bunch of bumbling fools.
well, actually i have been tracking a couple of zip codes, and the few REO ive seen, the banks are actually asking 60% of the loan amount taken out 2 years ago. So there is some realization that they goofed big time in writing those loans, and are making an effort to get ride of the property. But taking into account the work needed, and since its an REO, why should i pay 100% of the market value? My rule of thumb is to offer at most 80% of the ‘market’ (which is whatever my gut says is the correct value of the house, or an easy way is to price it at 2001 pricing). I think the bank would be greatful to accept this 40% of their loan amount, and if you really want to squeeze them than go lower.
So if this bozo thinks that the bank is not going to accept 40%, he is sadly mistaken. They have already capitulated (some of them anyways).
One other point: has any body tried to look into obtaining financing these days.. they literally want you to drop the kn…ers and cough!
This downslide is kinda going a little faster than i anticipated, my suggestions would be to keep the powder dry (i.e conserve cash), and if something makes sense (i.e cash flow works out, or rent vs own equation makes sense), then make an offer and remember you can never offer too low or offend the seller.. (atleast you took the effort to make an offer
got cash?
Just a question to others out there, like me, who are waiting for prices to fall more before buying: What price range do you consider reasonable?
When I see an interesting home for sale, I always look at it on Zillow to see how much they paid for it. Most I’d say are still trying to sell their homes for 2004-2005 prices. I would consider prices reasonable if they were selling in the 2001-2002 price range. What do other people think? Will they see the 2001 price range again? Is there such a glut of homes that they could even see the 1999-2000 price range?
Karen,
I can’t speak for others but there’s mounds of historic data that show us the avg. home should sell for about 3 X annual income. In CA that may have been closer to 3-5 X. ( Certainly though *not 10 X ) If like me, you’ve noticed prices in your area ramp up since the late 90’s you may chose to gauge historic appreciation @ Inflation + a percentage point of two and dismiss all BUT that going back to that time frame. Every thing above that is just fluff and hot air.
“Every thing above that is just fluff and hot air.”
I agree completely. It is a misallocation of consumer capital that would be better spent creating jobs and building infrastructure.
Right, anything sus-tain-able. If you look at what was squandered ( and now owed to foreigners ) we probably COULD have had a “hammer factory” ?
Depends on where you live.
In bad hit areas prices are near 2001 levels. The most desirable areas are still selling around 2004 prices. People may ask for more, but they wont sell. Those areas may take another 3-4 years to depreciate to that level.
such a glut of homes that they could even see the 1999-2000 price range..
imo, we’re gonna party like it’s 1999..
LOL… that’s what I’d like to see! 1999 prices! My husband and I just sold a house (and we are eating about a $30k loss, when I factor in what we would have paid for rent, etc.), but we are in a situation where we don’t have to pay rent, and plan to sit here for a few years to save money. The lower the prices drop the more house we can afford! BTW, we bought our house in 2005, and I’d say we sold it for 2003-2004 prices. And that’s why we sold it.
I have to admit I don’t really understand how housing prices got so out of control. I know we had lower interest rates after the tech bubble burst, then Bay Area commuters buying homes in the valley, and flippers. But a home is the land and building materials. Did the value of the land and building materials really more than double during those bubble years?
The simplest way I know of to explain the bubble formation is that, for some reason, everyone (govt, banks, RE and mortgage brokers, retail home buyers, builders, specuvestors, wall street investors, etc) came to believe that RE prices would rise and continue to rise for the foreseeable future..
Once that belief matured into a psycopathic mania, nothing but the brute force of reality would stop it, and that reality eventually manifest itself in the form of a rash of suicide-loan mortgage resets around mid 2007.
When we bought our house in 2005 I knew things had to correct themselves at some point in the near future. But at the time I didn’t think that the downturn would be so sharp, as it was in our neighborhood in the past few months. I hoped that if we sold after 5 years we might at least break even. Though when we were buying most homes were going in the high 300s and 400s. We found a decent 1600 sf house in a pleasant neighborhood for just over $300k. But there were some crappy homes going for that same price at the time. I would say that my husband and I are above average income. But at that time we just couldn’t understand who were all the people buying middle class homes for over $400,000.
We’re not really looking at this point, but when we were in the market, we considered reasonable=affordable for us, which meant 2.5-3x income, tops. Prices may be reasonable according to any number of calculation matricies, but if they don’t allow us to meet our other financial goals, they’re useless, especially when housing is available in the rental market that more than allows us to meet those goals.
If everyone thought the way you did, there would have never been a housing bubble and the economy wouldn’t be tanking right now.
Hard to say, but I look at it this way. In 1997 we had a strong economy, people’s balance sheets were decent, and inflation was completely under control. Oil was $10. Also, bubble boomers were an additional 10 years away from retirement. And finally, health care was much more readily available and affordable in 1997.
Today, our economy is in shambles. The balance sheets of the public are in shambles. Inflation is raging. Oil topped $118 today. And retirement is a lot closer for the bubble boomers. And huge health care costs are staring many of them in the face.
So clearly we are in far worse shape today than we were 11 years ago, on many levels. Going back to 1997 prices would still leave people far worse off than they were back then.
robmypro,
And I think about EXACTLY that when I’m having my third beer on Friday evening ( well late afternoon ) The only thing I would add is that we had a better focus in 1997. Recent grads were a lot more excited about getting out in the bus. world and asserting themselves and their talent in start-ups. New companies, new ideas. Granted, that could have ended better but look at the circle jerk and waste of resources Real Estate became. The REIC-based economy driven by “musical houses”. Great….
Good point. The bubble economy made us lose focus on the things that could have made a bigger impact in our lives. Too late now. I know I am dreaming, but I hope as people are feeling all the pain they know where to look for blame.
The mirror.
Seems like every time I zillow a house here in Flagstaff, I see that it has doubled in price over the last 5-6 years (sometimes fewer) and only recently ticking slowly downhill. I suspect this staredown between sellers and buyers will drag on for a while, absent some change in the status quo.
BTW, the home of our local fishwrap’s editor goes to Sherrif Sale today. Wonder what stories I’ll be reading online next: “The Tragedy Of Foreclosure; Share Your Stories”.
I had a good job offer (twice) with the local medical products company, the one that pays real professional wages. I would have been making W2 wages well over twice what I pull out of my current business. But considering the low cost of living where I’m at, the taxes, the need for a mortgage, etc. I would have been no better off than I am now, at least with regard to what’s left over at the end of the month.
Flagstaff’s a nice place. It isn’t that nice, though. We’ll stay off the treadmill for now. I hope prices drop a good 30-40% over the next 2-3 years but I’m not ready to bet on that happening.
In Oakdale, CA where we just sold our house (again at about a $30k loss), we saw that stare down between buyers and sellers for over a year, which was why we reduce the price below appraisal. There were a lot of houses in our neighborhood that were for sale for over a year and just not moving. One house down the road from us was asking just under $400k just about a year ago. Last I checked they were asking just over $250k, and still no buyers!
In Oakdale, I haven’t seen a lot of consistency with house pricing, and I imagine that’s going on all across the USA right now. Beautiful new 2500sf houses are pricing between $275k-300k. Yet average old drab homes are still asking for top dollar. As more forclosures hit the market in the coming year or so, reality has to hit hard and fast at some point soon.
“I would consider prices reasonable if they were selling in the 2001-2002 price range.”
I know there are regional differences, but rather than stick to a particular year, I’d shoot for buying at the historical fundamental ratios of price/income or price/rental. If the numbers work (e.g. positive cash flow) it might be worth taking the plunge. I plan to watch this elevator chug down for another few years myself.
Case-Shiller also helps. Plot the inflation rate you think makes sense (I use 4%) and then see where prices are relative to inflation. My chart shows we are clearly coming down the mountain, but we still have a good way to go to even get back to inflation. My data shows we need another 38% drop in LA to get back to the norm. That is as of January 2008. Based on our current trajectory we might get there in 2 more years. I suspect we overshoot another year or two on top of that, and then ride along the bottom for a decade.
What price range do you consider reasonable?
Plug a pre-bubble price into an amortizing calculator and add inflation + 1-3% per year to it… That’s what a home _should_ cost.. Or take local monthly rents for comparable properties * 100-120..
(aren’t these in the HBB FAQ? Is there such a beast?)
In the high desert in So/Cal price are now between 150k 200k for homes built in the last 4 years. These house where all going for 300k or more in 2005. The areas are not bad (crime gangs) but a long drive to work for most. The real bottom in price will come when the supply of buyers with income and credit equal the supply of affordable homes. A equilibrium most be reach where supply and demand is met. I don’t believe price are low enough for demand to lower the the inventory in resale home and that’s not counting new construction.
“‘The whole subprime crisis is literally melting all over the place,’ says Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance and real estate at Arizona State University.”
This is a PROFESSOR? What does it mean for a crisis to be “literally melting?” Is melting good or bad for a crisis? And this isn’t an expression: he means it “literally!”
Paging Olympiagal. We have a vocabulary question on aisle three.
This is a PROFESSOR of FINANCE and REAL ESTATE. Just go to http://www.matchbook_education_products.com and you can be a professor of finance and real estate too, and in less than 2 weeks! You can figuratively go from unemunjuncated bumkin to prof in no time at all. Then you’ll understand the link between a financial crisis and thermodynamics.
He’s right. The other day I got some on my shoe. I stepped right in melted credit - it is all over the place. Looks kind of like dog poo but also could resemble barf.
Must be all those frozen assets and the coming of spring.
Excellent comment.
Mindnumbing… The housing market will “bottom” when prices are back in line with incomes… incomes that will be going down in the Recession. Oh, and that’s assuming your city HAS an economy, which gaming ain’t in a Recession!
As for the cheaply slapped together junk, I’ve often joked that the reason nobody wanted to give out 30-year loans on the Bubble houses is that they wouldn’t last 30 years. They’ll fall apart at the end of the teaser-rate period, and then you can go out and buy another house for no-money down - real estate only goes up! Right…
There was a story on NPR this morning about foreign investors buying US real estate. No they weren’t looking at McMansions, they were buying extremely depressed brick housing in the North East.
While this is an extreme gamble, it supports my belief that no real investor would ever touch those slipshod McMansions. You can’t board them up for 10 years and expect to have a viable house if/when things recover. It will simply rot away.
I heard that story. It was about some whizbang investors shoveling real estate investment diamonds in, of all places, Detroit. These so-called diamonds are foreclosed properties that are selling for next-to-nothing.
One of the neighbors was interviewed, and he said that he was glad that someone would soon be living in the foreclosed house, even if it was a renter. Oh, brother. I’ll bet said neighbor will be whistling a different tune when the out-of-state infestor fails to properly screen his tenants and finds out that they’re a bunch of crack dealers.
Detroit reminds of the ‘boat’ sold to Dustin Hoffman and Steve McQueen in Papillion. Every time an escape plan gets that far, it seems to get sold again.
We’re talking Detroit…no one can afford crack.
There’s three possibilities for these “foreign investors”
1. They’re complete dupes
2. They are serious investors, who put a certain percentage of their portfolios into high-risk investments, like solidly-built-but-neglected-housing in Detroit that can be bought for next-to-nothing
3. They are people who think they can work the US government and tap into Section-8 money (and be slumlords), or redevopment funds
assuming your city HAS an economy..
Speaking of which, Vallejo, Californicate is pondering the mess it’s in.. and will decide whether or not to declare bankruptcy today..
http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_9001103
Interesing.
Who’ll file first, City of Vallejo, CA or Jefferson County, AL? Is any casino in Vegas brokering bets?
Prices need to drop, but intrinsic value doesn’t drop. Whatever happens to our incomes and savings in the upcoming debacle, I have faith that in a truly free market the numbers will eventually realign and that this needs to happen for our country to get back on its feet.
The argument that I am sick of having with people that are trying to talk the market into bottoming is if it is a good investment to buy a property to rent out, if the rent will just cover the ITI (no P since “all” investors use I/O loans).
It goes like this…
You can buy this place for $200K. With 20% down and $160K at 6.5% I/O, that give a payment of $1200 a month. It will rent for $1300, so it is a great investment.
Oh really. And what about repairs and maintenance? What about periods of vacancy? What if the renter does damage that is more than the security deposit? What if you have to give incentives? What about oppertunity costs? Closing costs.
The counter is always that the appreciation will always cover all that stuff.
Next round of foreclosures!
What if the tenants fail to pay rent? Even if they’re serial deadbeats, evicting them is not as easy as falling off a log.
Yeah, not to mention there’s better investments for your $40K. You put $40K down and you’re making 1200 a year on it? What’s that, like 3% per annum return? I think Etrade’s savings account does 3.25 or something. Not to mention its liquid versus a house which, to sell, you’ve got to pay a a realtor and a lawyer to close on.
Sure, if the property does appreciate, great. But there’s no guarantee. Plus the property will need maintinence, etc.
Real landlords are people who had extra money to buy properties during times when few people could qualify for the credit. They had something that set them apart from the people who were renting. What the parent poster is describing, any schmo can do. And if anyone can do it, how good an investment is it really?
Being a landlord is a job. I’ve already got one job and don’t need another, thank you.
Dollar getting smoked again today. I wonder how many people in this country realize that these massive oil hikes are nailing us more than most? In fact, this big spike in inflation is also impacting us far more than most countries (except the poorer ones).The Europeans are seeing far less increases. They also have viable alternative modes of transportation, and governments that provide a lot more assistance to those that are struggling.
2 more gov programs and “assistance”
the CRA act = housing bust
Ethanol subsidies = world starvation
and some folks want more gov programs
“‘We may be floating on the bottom,…”
Yeah! We got a bottom floater!
I just talked to a 6%ter in Miami, we’ve definitely hit bottom now…for the 12th time in just as many month. I wonder how many bottoms we still have to hit before we hit bottom.
‘Yeah! We got a bottom floater’
- Prevention magazine says that the correct kind of fiber will prevent this.
Floating on the bottom my ass. I remember it was exactly one year ago when Rober Toll was quoted as saying the national RE market was “Dancing on the bottom”. I guess when one tires of dancing and sinks down considerably then one could float. What follows? Decomposing on the bottom?
What follows? Decomposing on the bottom?
Well, with enough time and pressure, then the market will convert into crude oil, and then oil prices will go down as we drill and drain vast reserves of fossilized real estate!
“Home-building permits in metro Phoenix were flat again in March as the housing market continued to search for a bottom.”
Kind of reminds me of one of my old girlfriends: flat with no bottom!
Why the heck are new home-building permits not ZERO?
What sort of idiot continues to throw gasoline on this fire?
Beam me up Scotty; there’s no intelligent life on this planet.
Undisbursed construction loans that were originated a couple of years ago. Builders draw down the loan, take a profit cut, build the house, then turn it over to the bank. The construction loans are either non-recourse or the builder with personal liability hides/protects his assets.
Ben probably has the number of completed, never occupied residences that passed through the hands of the FSLIC and RTC in the last real estate bust.
My understanding is that the condo-hotel developers hide behind some kind of prohibition against them laying out how much people can expect to offset their morgages/expenses from hotel/rental income - or, at least none of those promises are ever made on paper (but surely, they are verbally made to seem impressive, even if they are short on specifics).
I am not exactly sure what the prohibition is — and whether it’s something the condo-developers have created/invoked themselves, rather than something that is enforced by any kind of government body or investment regulation entity. It just seems awfully convenient that they wouldn’t be able to share the exact figures as to what to expect - even as they must make it seem potentially lucrative or at least helpful.
I wish there was a condo-hotel specific blog. It’s my fav-o-rite scam in the real estate world.
Even more than the car condos in Miami? Those were my favorite. 200K if I recall.
Yikes - what, were people concerned they couldn’t rent a parking spot in Miami for less than $1,500 a month or so? I missed that one.
Condo-hotels are my fave scam, followed by undeveloped and/or inaccessible land, or lightly developed land (vacant lots in Cape Coral), bought sight unseen off of ebay or elsewhere. I appreciate the genius way in which they are structured to separate the gullible and greedy from their money.
http://realestate.listings.ebay.com/_W0QQa11ZQ2d24QQa6Z24272QQa9ZQ2d24QQalistZa9Q2ca6Q2ca72v1Q2ca72v2Q2ca11QQdfspZ32QQfromZR4QQfsooZ1QQfsopZ3QQgcsZ6QQpfidZ6QQsacatZQ2d100QQsbrsrtZdQQsocmdZListingItemList
Current United Airlines magazine has full page ad, with the popular ‘boomers looking into the sunset from a boat dock’ photo, about getting money out of an IRA and investing it in condo hotels, because they “can” return up to 15%. (The website name was kind of complicated, I remember the letters …usIRA…, could not find it in google).
You know it is not different when the experts are saying it is different.
You know we are not at the bottom when the experts are saying we are at the bottom.
Million Dollar Houses for Auction in Arizona (75K starting bid)
http://www.luxist.com/2008/04/22/million-dollar-homes-up-for-auction-in-arizona/
I want this one!
http://www.luxist.com/photos/arizona-house-auction/760214/
there is one there with a “price” of $1.8M and an opening bid of 800K
TX, you might like this one too. Be sure to look at all the pics. http://fortcollins.craigslist.org/rfs/650400268.html
That one has a lot of my pet peeves. Look at the cheap Home Depot kitchen cabinets and countertop material (formica). Ceramic mosaic in the shower instead of glass. Looks like only midgrade tile on the floors. I don’t like open kitchens. I think they should be a separate room.
Cool outside design but that house should be ~300-350K, not 700K.
“That’s the philosophy for Hammersmith Strucutres’ new line of Colorado Contemporary homes.”
Why would I trust a builder who can’t spell, and can’t be bothered to use spell check?
The 75k is for a 300k lot (wink, wink), starting bids on the homes are approx. 50% of “value”.
Whether it’s floating on the top or floating on the bottom, you’re still dealing with the same thing Daffy…despicable REIC PondScum
“‘The only negative we have is the darn foreclosures.’”
It would be perfect except for that…
“The only negative I have is this flesh wound that’s bleeding me to death”
Breaking out the Montey Python….
And the darn tightening lending standards.
Yes. The only negative is the darn foreclosures and the dang tightening lending standards.
Oh, and the massive inventory.
The only negative is the darn foreclosures, the dang tightening lending standards, and the shoot big massive inventory.
Oh, and the freakin’ weakening economy.
The only negative…..
““‘The only negative we have is the darn foreclosures.’”
And according to realtytrac there are more coming his way.
Maricopa County shows Pre-Foreclosure 131 Properties,Auction
20,231 Properties,Bank-Owned
15,533 Properties.
Almost 36,000 properties near or already bank owned
Las Vegas shows even worse #’s
Not even close to an end in sight…….
Lehi led the state for the second consecutive quarter with the greatest number of unsold new homes
The original Lehi (in the Book of Mormon) lead his family from Jerusalem to the American continent. Now the city named after him is the leader to. GO LEHI. YOU ARE #1.
Draper Bench - be ready for the big slide when the next earthquake
Is that referring to the houses at the top of the old Widowmaker Hill. The ones that I noticed (after long moving away) when going to dinner with my cousin and asking him what kind of fools would build up there. If the quake doesn’t get them, mother nature and a good rain/mud slide will. Cousin already said it was happening. The building in SLC also defies my belief. And no, the locals can’t afford the asking price.
“‘We hear disturbing news about the gaming industry, and the latest revenues are down for the first time. Gaming brings people and people need offices. The whole focus of the economic base in Las Vegas is gaming. That news was a concern,’ Martin-Denning says.”
_____________________________________________________________
We drove around Henderson, Nv. a bit, this past weekend…
So many useless outlier type casinos and oh so many brand new human-less houses everywhere you looked.
They’ve got themselves a nasty smog problem, as an added bonus.
We couldn’t see the strip from 15 miles away, this a.m.
You’re doing a heckova snow job, Brownie…
“‘We think that the evidence is building that we are seeing the bottom of the new-home market in the metro Phoenix area,’ Brown said.”
Aliens to buy phoenix foreclosures and save RE market?
Civilian and military aviation organizations said Tuesday the source of the strange red lights spotted over Phoenix Monday night remained unknown. An official with the North American Aerospace Defense Command, which monitors the skies for security threats, said Tuesday the organization did not know where the lights came from.
Ian Gregor, a spokesman for the Federal Aviation Administration said that though air traffic controllers at Sky Harbor Airport witnessed the lights, they do not know the cause. Nothing appeared on radar and Gregor said the FAA will not be investigating.
“There’s nothing to look into,” Gregor said.
Several Valley residents reported seeing strange red lights in the sky on Monday night .
Arizona Republic reporter Anne Ryman, who lives in Deer Valley, reported seeing four lights in a square shape that eventually became a triangular shape. The lights were moving to the east and they disappeared one by one. She said the lights were visible for about 13 minutes at about 8 p.m..
One north Phoenix resident, who wished to remain anonymous, said he saw four or five red lights lined up in a straight line and spaced apart evenly. The lights slowly moved east and became dimmer as the witness watched. He said the last light remained in the sky the longest. Then three jets came from the west and traveled in the direction of the red lights.
An official from Luke Air Force Base stated that they did not have any aircraft in the sky Monday night and that the lights were not part of any Air Force activities.
The Deer Valley airport officials said that the lights were not from any aircraft at that airport.
Ian Gregor, a spokesman for the Federal Aviation Administration said that air traffic controllers at Sky Harbor Airport also witnessed the lights, but they do not know the cause.
The incident is similar to the “Phoenix Lights” seen on March 13, 1997. Thousands of residents reported seeing a mile-wide, v-shaped formation of lights over the Valley. In that case the lights appeared about 7:30 p.m. and lasted until 10:30 p.m.