The Housing Bubble

The Capital Journal reports from Kansas. “Topeka, like much of the rest of the country, is a buyer’s market when it comes to real estate. Home sales fell 26 percent here in the first three months of 2008 compared to sales during the same quarter a year ago. Average sales price in the first quarter 2008 was $115,240, which was down 7 percent from $124,023 a year ago. Janet Carter, president of the Topeka Area Association of Realtors, said subprime lenders have left Topeka, so consumers with less than A credit are having a tough time finding financing.”

“‘We have really lost that group of buyers,’ Carter said. ‘They have nowhere to go.’”

“Toni Shenk, an associated broker, said several foreclosed properties are coming onto the market. ‘It’s a buffet for buyers,’ she said. ‘It’s a good time to buy.’”

The Des Moines Register from Iowa. “Whatever the reason, neighborhoods like Four Mile are taking it on the chin. These days, the more common signs in Four Mile are the ones advertising homes for sale. Plenty are foreclosed homes. At least 75 homeowners have had foreclosure petitions filed against them between January 2005 and February 2008, according to the Register’s analysis of court data.”

“‘It’s definitely impacting the suburbs and the new-build areas as well, but the greatest percentage of foreclosure filings are happening in the lower- to middle-income neighborhoods,’ said Danny Wagener, a community organizer for Des Moines Citizens for Community Improvement. ‘It’s a lot of families who are on the cusp of homeownership who have been misled or put into situations that will inevitably fail.’”

“The median assessed value of the foreclosed homes was $96,000. That’s nearly $50,000 less than the 2006 median value of households in Polk County, about $142,000.”

“‘They’re not getting the money they want out of these houses these days, the market’s so bad,’ said Kevin Lancial, who works for Des Moines’ public works department and has lived in Four Mile for nearly 20 years. ‘And some people just get in over their heads.’”

“Lori Hall and her husband moved into a two-story, four-bedroom house in October 2004. The next year, in order to borrow on their equity and renovate a bathroom, they refinanced with an adjustable-rate mortgage. Lori said the process was confusing for these two first-time homeowners, but they thought they were getting a deal.”

“Two years after refinancing, their house payments increased from $953 a month to $1,350. The Halls couldn’t afford it and quickly fell behind in payments. And after a short period of unemployment, they declared bankruptcy. Now, they’re looking for a rental house, as their home is in the midst of foreclosure.”

“‘When you talk about Four Mile out here, there’s a lot of homes for sale right now,’ Lori Hall said. ‘If we’d stuck with the original loan, we absolutely wouldn’t have these problems today.’”

“Bob Mahaffey, a Des Moines city councilman for the east side, said some homeowners in the area assumed increasing home values would offset the price of their loans. ‘But with the downturn of the real estate market, that never happened,’ he said.”

The Indianapolis Business Journal. “Despite the national housing market’s slump, more than three-quarters of U.S. homebuyers remain confident their purchase was at least as good an investment as stocks…according to a new survey released today by the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors.”

“‘Real estate is a long-term investment. Don’t buy and expect to make a fortune in six months,’ said Realtor John Creamer, a former MIBOR president. ‘But if you’re looking for long-term wealth accumulation, real estate in central Indiana is still a great place to invest, either in a home or a rental property.’”

“‘[Local] sales have been up and down. But buyers are still showing up at open houses and asking questions,’ said Creamer. ‘We never went through the ceiling, because we never had investors buying just to get appreciation. Our investors were a little more savvy.’”

“When considered purely as an investment vehicle, said Ball State Bureau of Business Research Director Michael Hicks, homes don’t necessarily compare favorably against stocks. But individuals can’t live inside a stock, or enjoy the intangible benefits of a well-appointed kitchen, cedar deck or recreation room. Taking all factors into consideration, he said, a house is a good long-term investment.”

“‘I’m not sure they are if you’re [just] speculating on it, but they are if you’re living in it,’ Hicks said. ‘Or at least I hope so, because I’m writing a fairly big mortgage payment every month.’”

From Today’s TMJ4 in Wisconsin. “Foreclosures are a growing problem in Milwaukee. This year alone over 1,600 people had their homes foreclosed on. ‘It’s a hard, hard battle. I have been fighting it for a while,’ Monique Ray said.”

“Ray is in a desperate fight to save her home. ‘I think owning your home is one of the most important things you can do, or you can have,’ Ray said.”

“Her annual interest rate is 11 percent. Her mortgage jumped from $700 to more than $1,600 a month. ‘I am a diabetic and I have been sick with stress worrying about bills and how I am going to pay my mortgage,’ Ray said.”

“The experts say the situation is going from bad to worse. Just ask steel worker Dennis Timlin. He makes good money but he spends every dime he makes on his bad mortgage and 12 percent interest rate. He is looking for any help he can get. ‘I am in trouble,’ Timlin said.”

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “At the end of 2007, there were 40,298 houses on the market in Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Livingston and Washtenaw counties. That represents a 17.4-month supply at the current sales pace. The supply of attached new housing, such as condominiums, ranges from 14 to 24 months in the three counties.”

“The Forte Group organized in 2006 to capitalize on the huge oversupply of homes on the market. The company works with local builders to move inventory by purchasing the buyer’s existing home for 90% of the appraised value.”

“They accept just one out of eight applications because the owner isn’t ready to accept a price lower than anticipated, or he or she owes too much on the house. ‘We are trying to give fair value of what the market will pay,’ said Joshua Britton, Forte’s partner. ‘There are a lot of people in this market who are stuck. But there are a lot who aren’t.’”

“But the money isn’t in selling the houses, and they sell many at a loss to control inventory. Builders pay their fees ranging from 12.5% to 15% on the purchase price of the new home. ‘We usually sell the house at a loss,’ Britton said. ‘You can either sell a house for a gain or you can sell a house fast, but you can’t do both.’”

“Marketplace Homes LLC, which started in 2002, began operations with a rent-to-own program and that changed when the real estate bubble burst.”

“Marketplace’s buyout program includes a guaranteed three-year lease so the customer can purchase a new home, knowing that the old home will generate income to pay the mortgage and expenses until it sells. The company last year purchased or leased more than 40 homes and generated more than $10 million in new construction sales for builders.”

“‘Now the market has shifted, and people can’t get rid of their homes. They are competing against banks that are dropping the prices,’ said Skip Chelton, the company’s VP. ‘It is a terrible time to sell in Michigan. Conversely, it is a terrific time to buy.’”

The Star Tribune from Minnesota. “Until recently, local governments in Wright County have been large beneficiaries of the explosive housing growth. Wright County, which welcomed the growth, and in some areas did little to control it, is now paying the price.”

“Housing values are declining at a time when many local governments are in the midst of building new schools and roads and expanding waste-water treatment plants. And vacant homes and half-built subdivisions do little to attract employers or shops that might help turn things around.”

“‘It should have been obvious there was a problem, when developers kept building and building and building, in spite of the fact that many of their houses weren’t being sold,’ said Fred Naaktgeboren, mayor of Buffalo. ‘A lot of people wanted to believe everything was all right.’”

The Spokesman Recorder. “Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has reportedly threatened to veto the Minnesota Subprime Foreclosure Deferment Act recently passed by both houses of the state legislature. In an effort to change the governor’s mind, a group of protesters set up a ‘Subprime City’ last Saturday, made up of tents and cardboard boxes outside the Governor’s Mansion in St. Paul.”

“In an April 1 press conference, Pawlenty said he is concerned about the potential effect on credit for the entire Minnesota mortgage market if the bill becomes law.”

“ACORN officials calculate that every 15 minutes a home in Minnesota is being foreclosed. ‘There are houses being foreclosed all over the state of Minnesota,’ Senior Organizer Vera Ashley pointed out. ‘Everybody didn’t take a loan out just to go buy a new car. They wanted a home, and now they’ve lost it. [They] were conned, maneuvered or tricked into adjustable rate mortgages.’”

“Sharon, who lives on St. Paul’s East Side (she asked that her last name be withheld), was among the protesters. She and her husband are currently facing foreclosure on their three-bedroom home that they purchased in 2006.”

“‘We haven’t lost our jobs,’ explained Sharon. ‘We did not get in over our heads. It was very affordable for us. When I signed the loan, I was under the impression that it would be a fixed rate. I was not aware that at a certain point the loan interest rate would skyrocket.’”

“‘The payment went from $1,675 to $2,300 a month,’ said Sharon. ‘The property tax increased while the value of the home decreased, which made it almost impossible for us to afford.’”

The Weseca County News from Minnesota. “Ten years ago, Realtor Charlie Leach got a call asking if he wanted to handle a foreclosure listing. He took it. Today, Leach handles foreclosure homes almost exclusively and works 80 hours a week to keep up with listings within about an hour’s radius of Waseca.”

“‘It’s almost overwhelming,’ he said.” “In 2007, Leach sold 135 houses; all but two of them were foreclosures. So far in 2008, he has listed 45 homes, compared to 25 at this time a year ago.”

“Occasionally, Leach has to actually remove people from their homes, which is ‘not so pleasant.’ He says he always tells them he doesn’t blame them for the foreclosure because ‘half my friends are four paychecks away’ from the same situation.”

“‘Usually they stay mad at the bank, but they don’t stay mad at me,’ he said.”

“His current foreclosure listings range from $20,000 from $585,000 and, while a certain percentage are the result of medical crisis, a divorce or a lost job, Leach said in most cases the homeowners were simply overextended.”

“The effect of the foreclosures on the local market is not that big, he said, but it is a vicious cycle. ‘The more properties I get, it drags down the value of existing homes,’ he said.”

“He expects the ‘foreclosure high tide’ to last another two years, perhaps three years if the federal government gets involved, because it would ‘just delay things another year.’”

“For each foreclosure, the result for the bank is anywhere from a slight profit to a $100,000 loss, with an average loss of $45,000 loss per house.”

“Most of the time, for the person buying the property, ‘it’s a pretty good deal,’ Leach said. He just wishes first time homeowners would have to take a class on mortgages and finances in general before signing those loan papers.”