The Real Estate Gold Rush Is Clearly Over
The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “The slump in the new-home sales market in the Denver area continues. Experts predict that new-home sales will drop another 10 percent this year, on top of a 31 percent drop in 2007. And with fewer consumers taking out loans because of stricter underwriting standards, lack of confidence in the economy and no sense of urgency, hard times are at hand for formerly highly compensated mortgage brokers.”
“‘It is tough,’ said Jeff Willis of Berkeley Homes. ‘Everyone is scaling down as close to the bone as you can get.’”
“Mark Levine, director of Real Estate and Construction Management at the Burns School of Real Estate at the University of Denver, said he wouldn’t argue with people who expect another 5 percent to 10 percent drop in home sales next year. ‘Builders have to ask themselves, why are they building homes if no one is buying?,’ he said.”
CBS 4 Denver in Colorado. “Eight percent of active listings in the Denver metro area are in foreclosure. Now there is a new and unique way to find foreclosed homes.”
“Dana Dziagwa with WR Starkey Mortgage organized a bus tour, taking potential buyers through foreclosed properties. ‘Homes are in a neighborhood, so it affects the neighborhood; it affects the people around the homes,’ Dziagwa said. ‘So we think it’s important to obviously sell them and make it good for everybody.’”
The Grand Junction Free Press from Colorado. “Sherri and Ronald DeRose bought a turn-of-the-century English Tudor home along a stretch of North Seventh Street, known among historians as the Goodwin House, more than six years ago. ‘I have lived (in Grand Junction) since I was 6,’ said Sherri DeRose. ‘I had my eye on this house since as long as I could remember. The day the (for sale) sign went into the lawn I wanted to see the house — I said, ‘I have to live here.’”
“Taking no chances she then contacted her real estate agent and made an offer the following day on the home, which measures 6,244 square feet.”
“But the home has become too large for the couple who want to ‘downsize’ and sell the residence. That could take some time, local real estate experts say, in that the home has been listed at $617,000.”
“And given that there are about twice has many homes for sale in the Grand Junction area this year when compared to the same period a year ago, there are a whole range of choices (price and size) for would-be buyers.”
“As of mid-April, there were roughly 1,620 residential properties for sale in the Grand Junction market, according to data compiled by Mark Abbott of Colorado Properties. He said that was up from about 1,376 at the beginning of the year, and about double from a year ago.”
“‘That tells me that a lot of people are trying to sell their homes,’ said Abbott on the run-up in houses for sale in the market in the last year.”
“And the ‘higher up you go in price — the longer it takes to sell,’ said Ron Sechrist, the listing agent for the Seventh Street home. Both brokers said the Grand Junction market, which was long able to shrug off the effects a weak national economy had had on other housing markets throughout the country, has also started to feel the impact.”
“‘Part of it is that people who want to move here can’t sell their homes in other parts of the country,’ Abbott said. ‘(Another) part of is property values here are not inexpensive … and when people come here and they look at what $200,000 will buy them here as opposed to back east and down south they say: ‘We do not want to do that.’”
“Given that backdrop the local homes that seem to being sold the fastest are those that are ‘clean with good curb appeal,’ Abbott said. ‘If they’ve got scuff marks or are beaten up — it’s not going to sell (quickly) … there is a lot to choose from and buyer’s can afford to be picky.’”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “The $200,000 home, once on the verge of extinction in Las Vegas, is making a strong comeback and some new homes are starting at $150,000, a local housing analyst said Thursday.”
“The number of homes for sale for less than $200,000 represented 8.3 percent of available listings in the first quarter, up from 4.9 percent in 2007 and 3.4 percent in 2006, said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq.”
“KB Home is advertising new homes from $149,900, or about $100 a square foot, in the master-planned Providence community.”
“‘I would not have believed this two years ago, but folks, that is the market today,’ Murphy said at his Crystal Ball seminar. ‘We’ve come full cycle. We’re back to 2004 prices.’”
“Home builders overbuilt in Las Vegas for about three years, bringing nearly 40,000 new homes to the market in 2005 when the city’s population growth of 75,000 required only 25,000 homes, Murphy calculated.”
“‘Why did we build more homes than we needed? Because a lot of people bought homes they didn’t need … investors,’ he said. ‘So in 2007, 2008 and 2009 we’re going to build fewer homes than we need.’”
“Consultant Steve Bottfeld of Market Solutions admitted he was wrong last year when he predicted that Las Vegas home prices would not drop. However, he remains bullish on the market and said the median price for new homes, including high-rise condos, will be up 8 percent to 10 percent in 2008.”
“‘We’re not on the bottom, but we’re nearly on the bottom,’ he said. Home sales in March increased from February, but they’re still far below year-ago levels.”
“Las Vegas has its problems, but so does the rest of the nation, said Jim Letchinger, president of JDL Development. The Chicago-based developer is building the 113-unit Mercer midrise condos on west Tropicana Avenue.”
“‘It’s not just Las Vegas, though it may seem like it,’ Letchinger said at Crystal Ball. ‘Vegas is suffering from a temporary — and I stress, temporary — correction.’”
“He said most of the failed condominium projects in Las Vegas were ‘fundamentally flawed,’ a bad product in a poor location.”
“The real estate ‘gold rush’ is clearly over, but the market will move on and eventually become stronger and better, Letchinger said. ‘I guarantee you every home you buy is going to be worth more down the road. I can’t say when — three years, six years — but in the history of the world, land prices go up, construction costs go up,’ he said.”
The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “Numbers remain mixed overall according to the latest housing sales report from the Center for Regional Studies at the University of Nevada, Reno.”
“‘The most obvious showing is the pronounced increase in new condo sales in the first quarter of this year compared to last year,’ said Brian Kaiser, a housing and real estate analyst with the Center for Regional Studies.”
“‘New and existing single-family home sales still haven’t bottomed out, but the declines over the past few months are not as steep as they were in 2007. This could be evidence that the market is nearing the point where it will have enough traction to start digging back out of this hole that we’re in,’ he said.”
“New and existing home sales were down 61.9 percent, with 598 units sold in the first quarter of 2008 compared to 1,570 units in the first quarter of 2007. The median sales price for new and existing homes dropped 11.1 percent to $300,000 in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $337,305 for the same period last year.”
“Homes priced higher than $200,000 likely will require buyers to sell an existing home in order to be able afford the purchase, said Ken Wiseman, broker-owner of Reno Rancho Realty. But since many homeowners are upside down on their loans, selling their current home isn’t a viable option, he said.”
“Inventories also should see an uptick in the spring, which is the traditional season for sellers to place their homes in the market. For the average homeowner, selling a home remains a challenge because they have to compete with heavily discounted real estate-owned properties still in the market, Wiseman said.”
“‘The real test is what happens in April, May and June with seasonal spring home sales,’ Wiseman said. ‘That’s when we’ll see the true health of the housing market.’”
The Deseret News from Utah. “Sales of single-family homes and condominiums in Salt Lake County declined 42.21 percent in the first quarter of 2008, compared with the same period last year. A report released Wednesday by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors also showed that condominium sales fell just over 30 percent, compared with the first quarter last year.”
“Among the areas where median selling prices fell were some of the neighborhoods along the Wasatch Front where demand previously had been strong, including ZIP code 84105 just north of Sugar House in Salt Lake City, 84092 and 84093 in Sandy, 84010 in Bountiful and 84054 in North Salt Lake. Those areas saw price declines ranging from 7 percent to 11 percent.”
“The declines represent a distinct difference in the market, according to veteran Realtor David Seiler. ‘It isn’t a bad market, it’s a changing market,’ he said. ‘We’re having to adjust our reality again because the last two years haven’t been real. They’ve been fueled by investors and easy money.’”
“Greg Adkins is one of many sellers feeling the bite of the current housing crunch. Since late last summer, the custom homebuilder has been trying to sell an upscale house he built in Riverton.”
“‘We built the house in speculation that someone would come by and buy it,’ he said. The home is currently on the market for $749,000, he said. ‘Originally, I tried to sell it for $799,000 and then we dropped it to $749,000,’ Adkins said. ‘But we haven’t had any activity on it whatsoever.’”
“Adkins said the glut of homes built by speculators is also a contributing factor, ‘and now it’s hurting everybody,’ he said.”
“Adkins said he’s concerned about the lack of interest he has had in his property and the strain it is putting on his financial situation. ‘It is a big concern, because I don’t know how long I can keep making the payments,’ he said. ‘I would say another two or three months before it becomes critical.’”
“Across the Wasatch Front, home sales have continued to fall. Summit County condo sales fell a whopping 61.54 percent in first quarter 2008 from last year’s first quarter, with the median sales price dropping just over 38 percent.”
“Similar trends were seen in Utah and Tooele counties. Sales of single-family homes in Utah County declined 41.69 percent, and in Tooele County, sales dropped 45.45 percent.”
“Housing slumps hurt almost everybody. Saratoga Springs projects a $1 million shortfall in revenue for this fiscal year because of the slowdown in homebuilding.”
“Ken Leetham, Saratoga Springs city manager, said the city noticed it might have problems with the budget and slowed spending. ‘We’ve curtailed our spending and we’ve put off several projects that were scheduled to be built,’ he said.”
“They halted road projects and put a hiring freeze on open city positions, but haven’t yet had to cut any staff positions, he said. The city is still issuing building permits, but those permits have slowed, Leetham said.”
“‘We’re at about a third of the level that we were in 2006, which was our highest growth year,’ he said. ‘It’s not that people aren’t buying and selling homes, (it’s that) there’s a lot of homes on the market.’”
So the bust finally hits Grand Junction. So much for that bullet proof stuff.
As for the Reno condo sales, I’ve seen that many times. I’d bet the increase is due to new/conversion units being completed, which increases the percentages. On the other hand, buy now or be priced out of downtown Reno forever!
Come on Ben! Downtown Reno is very charming:
Ample shopping (pawn shops and liquor stores)
Arts and culture (Circus Circus baby!)
Diversity (crazy homeless people)
All kidding aside, I’m sure Reno is an okay place to live but the whole luxury downtown condo thing is sooo two years ago.
Downtown? Reno?
BWAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Wahoooo!!
Oil patch country goin’ down. Grand Junction, Colorado.
‘Reno 911′ is one of my most favorite shows on the planet. Every time I see it I laugh my bum off.
Any a you seen it? I’m sure all HBBers have, because this blog is known for the quality of intellect, grace, and quiet refinement that is constantly displayed.
Right there wit ya Oly gal.Funny stuff. Can’t look at cops/authority figures the same way ever again.
Short shorts,unbuttoned shirt, on and on…funny stuff.
Reno 911!!
One of my favorite episodes is when the Reno sheriff’s department gets two passes to an execution and the staff have a contest: ‘the usual’, where points are awarded for tallest arrestee, two points for ‘arrestee with an animal tattoo’, points for arresting a Jew, the ‘cutest hooker in town’…gosh, I think I still have a Cheeto in my right lung from breathing it in while I laughed so hard at that one.
Wow I just feel the love for SUV’s here, guys
I drive a Liberty and couldn’t be happier. It does everything I want it to do and it goes everywhere I want it to go. It goes up Holcomb Creek in Big Bear, Last Chance Canyon in Mojave desert, Fish Creek Wash in Anza Borrego desert, Saline Valley Hot Springs, Racetrack Playa and Papoose Flats in Death Valley, and it goes to Hell’s Revenge and Poison Spider Mesa in Moab, UT too. It does all of that while carrying me, wife, two kids, dog, and camping gear.
No way I can do that in a Honda Civic …
Ah Ben,
But everyone was so sure that it was different here!
Tad
So the bubble car is out of gas. The FB passengers are refusing to hit the brakes, and are just letting the car coast, crossing their fingers that the car will start again and speed up.
Eventually the car will come to a complete stop at the bottom of the hill, but the gov’t is trying to redirect the car down another hill to keep the car moving.
Until someone stops the car and puts gas in it, it cant go again. There are alot of people with gas cans standing on the side of the road, but the FB passengers think there is a bigger gas can down the road.
Eventually the car will stop and the FB passenger will be forced to take whatever gas can they can come across.
Speaking of gas…..the death bell tolls (finally) for large SUVs:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24314164/for/cnbc/
SUVs or houses - what’s the difference?
Best cut the price and move ‘em out, because there’s a lot more where they come from.
RE: Best cut the price and move ‘em out
Maybe the pro car peddlers can pull it off, but no can do for J6P ’cause he’s upside down on his SUV equity with his 7 year payment note.
So as gaz goes to $5.00, lenders will have even more jingle keys to hand over to the work-out/liquidation crews.
Lets sell the used SUVs to the Chinese and Indians!!! The only problems is that they will not buy new autos. But what the heck, everyone is looking for a deal! Where is Ralph and his dog, SPOT, when we need him to perform his magic. By the way, is he still alive?
That’s just glorious. Maybe I’ll be able to pull out of a parking spot without feeling like I’m at the bottom of a well. Double bonus: a lot of Expedition drivers live in McMansions with 2-3 hour daily commutes.
Someone please forward the memo to all the jackasses driving brand new jacked up Ford Trucks in Silicon Valley
Hey Mo, just saw my first 3 bedroom in Cambrian Park for $325K. Its definitely hit San Jose!
Got an MLS Number ? That I have to see.
Maybe things will get back to the time when trucks were trucks, and you bought one because you had stuff you NEEDED to haul or tow, and the typical truck or Suburban identified more with the word “utility” than “luxury”.
Much like the Time cover story on flipping houses, the “There’s nowhere but down from here” moment was marked by Lincoln announcing the Blackwood “Luxury Truck”
I was in Coastal NC last week. Apparently, nobody has told anyone there that driving huge SUVs and trucks is getting a bit pricey. Same story- Mostly large SUVs and trucks reined supreme there. I know or a fact most of the people driving them were either working or middle class as well.
From Wilmington NC; Suburbans are the middle class status symbol of choice for soccer moms. Talked with GMC sals person told me 75% lease. Lease terms $4000 and $750/month for 36 months. Range Rovers seem to be the new status symbol. I dont know where the money comes from really I dont.
RE: to all the jackasses driving brand new jacked up Ford Trucks in Silicon Valley
These honcho’s are all living in the basement of their parent’s home or in the back of their trucks.
All the freebie rent money goes in the gaz tank.
Great find Salad!
I loved this quote:
David Tivadar has spent three months trying to get fair trade-in value for his 2005 Lexus SUV, which gets about 17 miles per gallon. He would like to trade it in for a minivan that gets better mileage and can accommodate his baby daughter.
He bought the Lexus new for about $33,000, and said the monthly payments of $465 “would be more manageable if gas prices weren’t so high.”
huh? I’m just too practical. So assuming this idiot only drives 17,000 miles per year… its about the same gas bill.
Cheap gas times ($2/gallon)=$465+$300(insurance/registration/maintenance/parking)+17,000miles/17mpg*$2/12months is about $950 per month of car ownership costs.
Now gas is about $4/gallon. Or about $1,100 per month TCO.
If $150 or so per month is killing the guy… he should have bought a civic in the first place!
FYI, we bought a Honda Odessy minivan and love it. Gas milage isn’t so great (it weighs 3,800 lbm), but its really convienient for a family.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Mr. Tivadar is now experiencing a delayed form of that thing that used to be called “buyer’s remorse” in a less politically-correct era. Until very recently, buying that big gas-guzzling SUV was sort of a status symbol. Everyone was doing it. Someone like Mr. Tivadar could think of himself as sort of a miniature version of The Donald for buying a large overvalued McHouse (during an era where prices were appreciating madly, of course) and watching the value go up, up, up, and congratulating himself every morning for being such a fooking genius. Someone like Mr. Tivadar would think of himself as “looking cool” tooling around town in that enormous SUV.
Unfortunately for his wallet, Mr. Tivadar is now getting a lesson in the difference between imagined value and market value. Experience keeps a mean school, but apparently fools will not learn in any other school. What the market is trying to tell him is that the price that he would like to sell the SUV for is not the same as what people are willing to pay for it. That is to say, the offers he’s currently disdaining are probably the best ones he’s ever going to get for his vehicle.
For the time being, is he going to take the wheels off, remove the battery, drain the fluids, put mothballs in the interior, wrap the thing in plastic, put it up on blocks, and hang onto the thing in cold storage, waiting for some distant day when a collector of vintage 05 Lexus SUVs comes looking for a mint-condition ride from the age of oil? Probably not. Betcha he drives the thing every day, and it’s slowly getting the crap beaten out of it through constant daily use.
Mr. Tivadar is proving to have an intelligence equal to that of any forest-dwelling knuckle-dragging member of the ape family. He’s holding something tightly in the hand that’s stuck inside a gourd tied to a big tree. The longer he waits, the more the vehicle depreciates. The longer he waits, the greater the increase in fuel prices, making it less likely that anyone will want a gas-guzzling SUV for anything except maybe as demolition derby fodder. Yet he can’t bring himself to let go. He’s fixated on that mythical “fair value” for his albatross .. err, Lexus.
Good luck, retard. Thank you for the amusement.
Not only does the death bell toll for SUV’s, but for coffee houses, restaurants, specialty shops, markets, you name it. These high prices are giving an a$$ kicking to the economy. People need fuel. They don’t need a lot of other things. I think the Greater Depression scenario is playing out right now, and high commodity and gas prices are the nail in the coffin.
As the small business owners are forced to close up shop, they lose their high priced homes, and enter the employment line, competing for jobs with the boatload of other people who are out of work. This is not good at all. Bad…very, very bad.
Large SUVs are a great place to store your bags of rice.
From the CNBC article:
“David Tivadar has spent three months trying to get fair trade-in value for his 2005 Lexus SUV, which gets about 17 miles per gallon. He would like to trade it in for a minivan that gets better mileage and can accommodate his baby daughter.”
Does his baby daughter weigh 300 pounds? Call the National Enquirer now! I can get both my teenagers and two of their friends in my Toyota Matrix with me…I’ll admit it’s a bit of a squeeze, but what is this “I need an SUV to accommodate my baby” business…
Yeah, don’t you love how people justify their ego purchases because it’s “for the baby”? Like a whole generation of us didn’t survive childhood without being ferried around in a 6,000 pound tank?
I bet he’s also bumming because little Josh/Jennifer is gonna be spitting up all over the fine Corinthian leather, and soon the new SUV smell will be comingling with diaper poo. He’s the type who probably flips his vehicle every three years, and now he can’t. boo hoo.
We have every indication that housing will be a bloodbath this summer which means by 2010 we might have affordable housing. Remember before you commit to a house you have to consider if you will have to sell or rent it because of a crisis.
I’ll go a step further and say before you commit to anything always consider and plan for the “what if” crisis. Only risk money you can afford to lose.
That is the key. The bank is going to force you to have skin in the game. Risk goes up. You are going to have a really hard time selling it. Risk goes up. You need to sell and you are facing financial ruin. Risk goes up.
It’s all risk at this point.
Homebuilder savants never let math get in the way of overbuilding…
“Home builders overbuilt in Las Vegas for about three years, bringing nearly 40,000 new homes to the market in 2005 when the city’s population growth of 75,000 required only 25,000 homes, Murphy calculated.”
There’s a field of reams for the homebuilders in LV.
I was there a couple of weeks ago, and noticed that the only condo towers with lights on at night were the ones that were under construction - they left the work lights on at night. The completed towers were about 95% dark. Based on that observation, I think it might be worse than what what has been reported to date for the condo towers.
Talk about dark matter!
Black Hole.
Vegas reminds me of any old Soviet 5-Year Plan gone awry.
Vegas does not seem to be much of a “plan” though. During my last visit, I could not get over “luxury” condo towers going up next to strip clubs or hub cap shops or across the street from apartment complexes that look like murderers row. Who would want a condo by the Stratosphere? Talk about your nonwalkable neighborhood.
I have yet to see an apartment or condo ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY that wasn’t a “luxury” apartment or condo.
Oxymoron: “Luxury Studio Apartment”
I’ve had to be in Vegas for the last four weekends. The California plates which use to dominate the area are gone.
I’m not seeing very many around my area either.
Some personal observations items from Washington County (St George).
My neighbor, a realtor, just told me that there are over 2000 foreclosures on the local market here and that we are averaging over 150 notices of default per month.
La Verkin, if you drive Hwy 9 to Zion you drive over an old bridge before heading up the Plateau you’re there, is about $200,000.00 in the red.
They have cut about 40% of their employees. They overspent (extra police, new vehicles, etc.) counting on the revenue they were getting during the “bubble”. The revenue is no longer coming in.
I got a haircut yesterday. The place was empty (25 chairs). The girl who cuts my hair said that the cancellations are getting ugly. She had a long term customer bounce a $100.00 check. When see called to see how the customer was going to cover the fee she was told point blank by her client “sorry, but I don’t have the money”.
She told me that two of her fellow workers are losing their homes. One of her other co-workers told my haircutter that she and her husband (construction) are going to lose their vehicles (can’t afford the payments). They already gave up the house to foreclosure.
I heard from a friend that a local taxguy who does the taxes for several small time builders here (regular customers) had payment problems. Two of the builders (going out of business) told him he can forget about getting his fee after (of course) he provided the papers for the builders to mail in.
One other thing. In-n-Out opened up here this week. Considering the crowds, it appears that no matter how bad things get that coming up with enough money for a burger won’t present much of a problem to people around here.
LV still has the high hotel rates for Memorial Day weekend. Thought about taking a trip, saw the rates and bagged it.
“Home builders overbuilt in Las Vegas for about three years, bringing nearly 40,000 new homes to the market in 2005 when the city’s population growth of 75,000 required only 25,000 homes, Murphy calculated.”
That would be an example of Murphy’s Law in action!
My little brother in SLC is finally going to see things head his way. He’s been hen pecked by MIL for the last two years about buying before they are priced out forever. His FIL has 2 spec homes he’s trying to sell. HaHaHa. Cool aide drinkers.
Wasatch front is in for a big fall down go boom.
Has your brother ever thought of lowballing the FIL on the spec houses?
And tee off the MIL? Now that’s a risk even Countrywide 2005 wouldn’t be able to sell on the secondary market.
After several months, a friend gave up on trying to sell a townhouse in SLC that he bought last year, at the urging of his wife to “stop throwing money away on rent.” He finally saw that Utah was really going to get slammed and tried to sell for a good chunk less than he paid. He got lots of nice comments on the property, but not one offer. His building-based job is now gone too.
Big fall down go boom is right!
“Wasatch front is in for a big fall down go boom.”
LOL
I noticed that there are many new listings for sale in the mountain areas of Summit and Eagle County, home of Breckenridge, Keystone, Vail, Beaver Creek, etc. When people need cash, they will sell their second home first.
Who are they going to sell them to?
BayQT~
Oh, well, second homes are all the rage… they’re such a great investment!
Good question. We’re watching Bend melt down.
While foreclosure listings for Summit County only edged up in last months, the ones in Wasatch County skyrocketed. My take on this is that ‘investors’ who were late to the game & bought in Midway and Heber had lousy rental returns the past 18 months and are throwing in the towel. I am not feeling sorry for them.
Yeah yeah Steve,
“Bottfeld..admitted he was wrong last year when he predicted that Las Vegas home prices would not drop. However, he remains bullish…said the median price…will be up 8 percent to 10 percent in 2008.”
All this bottom calling is getting rather pathetic. Can any of these dumb pricks so close to the fire actually believe this crap? Seems like they just spew this crap rather than make that all important call to the suicide hot line.
“We’ve come full cycle. We’re back to 2004 prices.’”
LMAO, I sold my rentals in 02′ and primary in 04′. Really wanted to keep my primary, but couldn’t turn down the 150k more than it’s worth. This tart is happy about priced backing down to 04′ levels when I thought they were crazy high!! When they return to 88-89′ levels then we will have the RE oven preheated and ready to cook. To tout 04′ prices as anything but off the hook high is pure stupidity.
These market gurus appear as if they are standing the Colorado river trying to hold the water back with trash can lids.
When these bottom callers/prices going up people are walking on fired coals, don’t they smell the heat?
“‘I would not have believed this two years ago, but folks, that is the market today,’ Murphy said at his Crystal Ball seminar.”
hee.
Two classics in Grand Junction . . .
“That tells me that a lot of people are trying to sell their homes,” said Abbott. No Sh*t Sherlock
“But the home has become too large for the couple”
Either that home has gone Barry Bonds on them or maybe the mortgage payment has become too large for the couple (of nimrods).
sorry for the long url, but I think this is it. Does look kinda nice…wonder what they paid for it 6 years ago.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=91093&mnp=33&mxp=32&typ=7&sid=f8776d70153f447090e8ca42f0977342&lid=1095634319&lsn=3&srcnt=35#Detail
I was wondering that too. Even in a bubble, a 1907 Tudor for just over $100/sq ft sounds almost reasonable. What could it have cost in 2000? Half that?
although, is it the kind of house a 6-year-old would dream about for 30 years? It’s a nice place, but kinda blocky. I was expecting something more fairy-tale.
It screams “Money Pit!” to me.
Screams to me: “think of the time you will spend on dusting!”
This is ridiculous! OFHEO figures show that Grand Junction is up about 85% in 6 years. I bet they paid no more than $350k for it. And now they’re trying to cash out and get rich by asking $617k.
They don’t want to “downsize.” They want to collect on the jackpot they believe they’re entitled to.
I bet that house is on First Street, an area that’s surrounded by city stuff but a world unto itself. A several-block long enclave of old houses. Believe me, there’s MUCH nicer in Junction for that price. They’re dreaming.
Looks really really nice but 5 yrs ago it was probably in high 200s at most. Maybe very low 300s.
Nice house. LIttle steep for me. Say 50% more off.
Yeah, everything in Reno is just “peachy.” Had dinner with real estate insider the other night; he told me that rumor has it that the general contractor of the largest condo project in Reno is going BK and people in his office are getting concerned. Reno Gazette-Urinal, worst shill rag on the west coast.
Damn straight, Casa! RGJ is just worthlessly shameless when it comes to their reporting. At least some of the smaller rags are finally starting to relate the horror stories that are our market. Most of them have to do with how our local sub-contractors are being hosed by the big developers who have stopped paying them. Law suits, liens, and so on.
Yesterday a big shot Sacramento developer went BK, and I was happy to see he lost about 7 of his personal houses. Us vultures will not have to wait much longer to find the choice meat sitting dead on the road.
Do the people in Reno think they live on the West Coast?
Reno is the biggest little disaster.
Reno Real Estate: Make the Biggest Little Mistake of Your Life
That article on Grand Junction is interesting, because the local economy is strong. Overbuilding strikes again.
Jimmy, a lot of those jobs there pay $10/hour. Only thing Junction really has going for it is the oil patch, just like in the 80s.
“‘New and existing single-family home sales still haven’t bottomed out, but the declines over the past few months are not as steep as they were in 2007. This could be evidence that the market is nearing the point where it will have enough traction to start digging back out of this hole that we’re in,’ he said.”
Declines the last few months not as steep? WTF!! We just started to see some real price hits going down here. If you ask me, last year was “sticky”, but you can now feel that the market has finally started to capitulate. C’mon, median down 11% from the top still has a long, long way to go here in the NNV. This area will do at least as badly as places like Sac and the IE, likely worse!
“‘The real test is what happens in April, May and June with seasonal spring home sales,’ Wiseman said. ‘That’s when we’ll see the true health of the housing market.’”
Now this I agree with, but not with the forecast that this chump is dreaming of. We just started seeing the real wave of foreclosures hitting our market. Remember, what happens in Cali usually takes 8 to 12 months to go down here. That means the nightmare that hit Cali is just about to go down here in earnest. Now, throw the job market into the picture, and NNV has disaster written all over it. Most of our population growth of the last 5 - 7 years has been based on RE growth and the jobs created by it. You should see what’s happening now. On could go on for days with anecdotal stories, just trust me when I tell you that there is a JT wedged in almost every bum you run into up here.
I lived in Reno at one time. It was frequently remarked that Reno had a large transient population. People would go to Reno to work a job for a while, and when better prospects became available, they would leave town.
What does this mean for Reno? When the jobs dry up a significant number of people are just leaving town. Which, of course, makes the Reno real estate market, just that much worse. You might even see actual population decline in Reno, something that hasn’t happened since 1930’s.
I have no doubt we will see an out-migration.
Got a hot date with a 1,000 year old, hasta la vista…
Aladin, I believe I now remember that you are referring to a tree!
Or else some boiled Anasazi bones?
Wonder if you can make good broth out of that.
Not like wild mushrooms really, is it?
Sure, let’s put it on the risotto.
Well, I don’t know! They all got away before I came to eat them.
You take General Grant, I’ll take General Sherman. There ain’t no difference between the two.
Calipain is runnin’ all ‘roun’ my brain.
“But the home has become too large for the couple who want to ‘downsize’ and sell the residence. That could take some time, local real estate experts say, in that the home has been listed at $617,000.”
The home has “become too large”? Is it sprouting new rooms? Or perhaps the owners are shrinking?
Or just maybe, it’s the payments that are becoming too large?
I bet the heating bill was a tad bit more than what the could afford.
Anyone buying a 6000+ sqft house who isn’t a polygamist is crazy.
I can’t even motivate myself to really clean our 1600 sq feet! You really need a *staff* for a house that big. And I can’t imagine the maintenance costs. Or air-conditioning in the summer. Ugh.
That 6k square figure reminds me of something I heard at a meeting earlier this month. One of the co-founders of the group (who, IMHO, is a bit too impressed with herself) stood up and announced that she and her husband would be spending this summer in Greece. She was wondering if anyone would be interested in renting their (emphasis hers) 6,000 square foot house.
I didn’t see anyone shoot up a hand and say, “Me, me, ME-E-E!”
I will housesit for free. And I am bonded.
Rent their big expensive place. Not.
will their house come with hot and cold running boy servants. Cute ones and a maid and a cook? and personal trainer, cause I need a vacation.
I am assuming no air-conditioning. As for heating, its sounds like a charming, old, drafty house. $500 a month to heat in the Winter perhaps, and then still never feeling comfortable.
That’s a question I have for everyone:
There are a lot of nice, restorable Victorian and early 20th Century houses around here. The build quality and the materials are light-years ahead of new construction for the most part, but everyone I’ve ever talked to says that they are energy hogs to heat and cool.
Know of anybody who has successfully addressed this problem? If so, what is required? Did it require tearing the place down to the studs, and starting from scratch?
It might be possible to fill the existing walls with isonene foam insulation. Ask a local insulation contractor about this.
Part of the problem is the old single pane windows. If you replace them, however, you loose charm and value, as most buyers want the original features.
Back in 1979, the first house that we bought was in Berkeley, CA. Built in 1907 and had very cool features: built-in china cabinet (with drawers below and shelving above with glass doors) in the dining room with a pass-through to the kitchen. The pass-through had been closed off and we never reopened it, redwood panelling that went 3/4 of the way up the wall, bathroom that had 2 doors and accessible from each of the 2 bedrooms…no access from the main hallway, and a foyer that had a door to one bedroom, another entry to the living room and one to the dining. I guess that was so that you could bypass the living room and go straight to either of the other rooms if you wanted to.
A next door neighbor (in her 70s) told us that she remembered that the house also had pocket doors between the living and dining rooms. So we proceeded to pull off the molding and discovered to redwood doors. We refinished and rehung them.
At the time, Berkeley had a few redevelopment programs going on is different neighborhoods, and we were lucky enough to be in one of them. So with the loan that we qualified for we lifted the house and added a garage and redesigned the lower unit (it was legally a duplex but hadn’t been used as one in years), replaced windows (they glass had settled…probably the original glass), front stairs and railing, and updated the electrical (my ex was an electrician at the time so he did that work).
The bricks that fell through from the chimney when we raised the house, we used to create a patio for the new tenant.
Every now and then I drive through the old neighborhood just to see the house, and wonder if it’s being taken care of properly. Strange how when you labor on a project like that, that it in a way becomes a member of the family or an old friend, and you want to check on it from time to time.
Even though there was a bit of upgrading to do, I still compare each house that I see or own to that one. The workmanship, material and attention to detail when these homes were built was incredible. And their character has not been matched since, IMO.
BayQT~
You would think with this whole “Green” craze, there would be a push towards smaller homes with lower profiles that use less energy. My grandfather is always carrying on about how big and tall these new homes are. He say people need to buy low profile houses because it’s all about “heatin’ and coolin’”. I speculate that the McMansions will become like the Hummer: a socially incorrect pariah. The new “cool” will be to buy smaller homes- maybe they will start selling the ikea houses in the US.
My BIL lives in a 12,000 SF one, with wife, 18-year-old son and 16-year old daughter. In two years, they’ll have 6,000 SF each. Why? I have no idea. We were told it was an “investment.” On that, I’ll agree; however, not all investments are good investments.
I was wondering the same thing–did the house start to grow after they bought it?
Sherri DeRose was eying this house since she was six years old! Obsession can kill, at least financially.
Cinch
She wanted it, she got it. I wonder when the “oh, s**t” moment came.
said House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio. “The American people are bright. They’ll figure out how to spend this money the best way possible.”
I’m blowing mine on six hundred bucks of powerball tickets!!!
Naw, stock up on rice. LOL
i’m getting a 600 dollar massage. :)—-)>
I’ll spend mine on psychics and tarot readers, lots of both here in the “coveted” 78704 zip code. I will find out when the housing market will bottom and when the commodities bubble will pop.
2 treatments of botox and for a whole year or about, I hear, one could look unstressed in this mess.
As Billy Crystal said in SNL once, “to look good is to feel good, and you ‘rook mahvelous”.
maybe they lost weight?
“‘I would not have believed this two years ago, but folks, that is the market today,’ Murphy said at his Crystal Ball seminar. ‘We’ve come full cycle. We’re back to 2004 prices.’”
Wake me up when we have 1999 prices, I have some cash to spend. Until then I will probably still continue to look at houses, but mainly as a source of amusement.
I am still waiting to see price declines in Denver’s nicer neighborhoods. So far, it hasn’t happened significantly. I have noticed an uptick in Realtor ads, however. They usually say the same old nonsense such as its never been a greater time to buy, on average house prices double in value every 10 years, best investment you can ever make, etc. One ends on the note that all real estate is local, so the best advice is to call the number listed below to reach a Realtor that will be happy to tell you about all the great opportunties that are available in your area of interest. Guess it’s all local, and from a Realtor perspective there are great opportunities in every one of those local areas.
ya gotta have comparitive sales before prices can change. No sales means no price change.
However, a house is a house is a house. If there is less demand (less sales) for homes, homes across the board have been devalued.
Appraisers, being bound by the rules of their profession, cannot make that assumption and leapfrog to my conclusion.. but then, i’m not an appraiser.
“‘The real test is what happens in April, May and June with seasonal spring home sales,’ Wiseman said. ‘That’s when we’ll see the true health of the housing market.’”
Have you noticed the “real test” is always next month? It’s always, “We’ll know more in a couple of months.” Of course technically you can always say you’ll know more in a couple of months than you do now!
I’m waiting for the “expert” who says, “Last month was the real test (and we failed).”
You’ll be waiting forever.
They’ll always tell you how long until they go into BK.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
RE: He said most of the failed condominium projects in Las Vegas were ‘fundamentally flawed,’ a bad product in a poor location.”
What a brilliant observation.
Too bad a legit honest commercial appraisal would have said the same thing except before the first hole was dug.
Amazing! One would think that a little due diligence would be done to ensure the location and product was right before spending millions of construction dollars. Of course, a lot of these developments depended on other developments (that never broke ground) to make the neighboorhood a little nicer.
Another casualty of the housing bubble:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbhostages0425sbapr25,0,2874713.story
Officers asked him to put his hands in the air. Instead, Dellisanti reached for the waistband of his pants and pulled out the revolver
classic case of suicide by cop..
I was in a bank (WF) and some guy next to me started screaming to the teller about “But there’s money in my account!” and “Who’s the manager? Nevermind, I’ll find him.”
I was walking out when i overheard the argument near the manager’s office.. the customer was calling him outside to settle it.. about 25 customers stopped what they were doing and watched. Tempers are kinda short these days..
I was scolded by a manager at Citibank today for keeping too much money in my checking account, where it earns only pitiful interest. He’s right of course, but I’d rather have that problem than the ones most FB’s have right now!
Financial institutions are very strange places indeed. Here’s a story from earlier this afternoon:
Had to go over to my credit union to pay my credit card balance down to zero. (Yeah, I know. In credit card industry parlance, I’m a deadbeat.)
Before I zeroed out the card, I made four photocopies using the machine in the lobby. It’s in an island next to the velvet rope corral, and it’s not blocked off in any way. Nor is it marked with a “Keep Out” sign.
Well, to hear it from the employee who came over and chastised me for using the copier, you’d think I’d just ripped off the combination to the locks at Fort Knox. I was told that I wasn’t allowed to use the copier, and that I’d have to ask a staff member to make copies for me.
I calmly replied that if the credit union didn’t want members using the copier, then the copier should be roped off from the rest of the lobby. And that there should be a sign saying that the copier was for staff use only.
The employee didn’t have a good comeback, other than to say that the copier area had documents that members weren’t supposed to see. Well, I wonder, if the security of member info is so important, than why can anyone just walk into the copier area and see it?
I wish I could think on my feet like that.
Slim you have a great logical brain.
I would have turned red and ran.
I would have bitten somebody. Probably not even the right person; it’s just an instinct thing with me, and not subject to reason or censure.
Besides, they probably would deserve it anyhow. Like, past sins or something.
Housing slumps hurt almost everybody.
They don’t hurt anyone who didn’t drink the urine over the past few years!
Jbun, that was hilarious!
My guy friend just got back from his attorney in SD and was all happy because lawyer told him to walk on a 700k property.
I have been telling him to walk since Xmas.
He also, I am ashamed to say, is going to erase 40k in C.C. debt.
Anyway I am excited for him.
One friend out five urine drinkers, that I know, ain’t bad.
Who’s Next?
‘I have lived (in Grand Junction) since I was 6,’ said Sherri DeRose. ‘I had my eye on this house since as long as I could remember. The day the (for sale) sign went into the lawn I wanted to see the house — I said, ‘I have to live here.’”
I can visions of the “Suzanne Research this” commercial.
Wife: “I have to live here”
Husband: but, but
Wife: “Suzanne researched this”
“Greg Adkins is one of many sellers feeling the bite of the current housing crunch. Since late last summer, the custom homebuilder has been trying to sell an upscale house he built in Riverton.”
“‘We built the house in speculation that someone would come by and buy it,’ he said. The home is currently on the market for $749,000, he said. ‘Originally, I tried to sell it for $799,000 and then we dropped it to $749,000,’ Adkins said. ‘But we haven’t had any activity on it whatsoever.’”
“Adkins said the glut of homes built by speculators is also a contributing factor, ‘and now it’s hurting everybody,’ he said.”
Everybody but him is a speculator?
..I don’t know how long I can keep making the payments,’ he said. ‘I would say another two or three months before it becomes critical.’”
relax.. 2-3 months is plenty of cushion. Don’t worry about a thing .. hold your ground.. it’s a bargain at $749,000. The market is bottomed out. Don’t let the hyenas and bottom feeders tell you different.
Why would I pay that price for his idea of what I want in a house? Makes no sense to me, better to spend that money on an architect and custom builder to make it fit my needs and lifestyle. Never figure out these folks some days.
Yep, “Hello Mr. Kettle, let me introduce you to Mr. Black”
“You guys should talk”
Horse Owners Become Housing Bubble Victims in L.A. (from Bloomberg)
“Los Angeles, the city of Hollywood stars, is also home to about 10,000 horses, said City Councilwoman Wendy Greuel. Some estimates of the horse population run as high as 20,000 within city limits and 45,000 in all of Los Angeles County, which has 9.9 million residents.
The waste produced by horses living in a big city wasn’t a problem for decades, as plant nurseries and compost yards accepted manure and turned it into fertilizer. When zoning officials allowed developers to build homes close to those sites, new residents complained of the stench and nurseries began turning away the dung. The owner of the last compost yard, Dickran Sarkisian, said he closed in October because he wasn’t able to renew the lease.
Depositing manure at a landfill costs as much as $47 a ton, five times what the mulchers charged, said Mark Herman of Peacock Hill and J-Bar. Stable owners can’t afford to stay in business unless they pass that expense to boarders, he said.
“In the last four to five years, the cost for individual horse owners has doubled,” said Herman, 85. He said the 120 horses at his stables produce as much as 5 tons (4.5 metric tons) of manure a day.
Some Angelenos said the rising stable fees are forcing them to give up their beloved horses. “
Hard to believe that someone won’t take free horse poop for their garden. It’s great stuff for plants.
No rice in many countries, no bread in Egypt, rice shortage at
Costco and Sam’s Club. Next up, no food at Costco and Sam’s Club.
Hungry? Got humans?
Dana Dziagwa with WR Starkey Mortgage organized a bus tour, taking potential buyers through foreclosed properties. ‘Homes are in a neighborhood, so it affects the neighborhood; it affects the people around the homes,’ Dziagwa said. ‘So we think it’s important to obviously sell them and make it good for everybody.’”
Dana, could you be a little more obvious. No $h!t, Sherlock. Where did you get your first clue?
How ’bout that last sentence: “It’s not that people aren’t buying and selling homes, (it’s that) there’s a lot of homes on the market.”
Someone please forward the memo to all the jackasses driving brand new jacked up Ford Trucks in Silicon Valley
Same note needed for all the jackasses in Albuquerque driving same type of vehicles. It boggles my mind.