The Pride Of Ownership Is Gone In California
The Used House Salespeople report from California. “Home sales decreased 24.5 percent in March in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent, the C.A.R. reported. ‘The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,’ said said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.”
“C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2008 was 11.6 months, compared with 7.6 months for the same period a year ago. In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick, 4.9 percent, or 14 out of 283 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
The Pasadena Star News. “Los Angeles County home sales plunged 37.6 percent in March compared with a year earlier and the region’s median home price fell 25.6 percent to $431,950, according to CAR.”
“Those numbers…don’t surprise Chris Vigil, a broker and licensed appraiser in Santa Fe Springs. ‘I guess it’s to be expected because of the inventory that’s on the market,’ he said. ‘It’s not a normal inventory because short sales and foreclosures are not normal.’”
“La Puente experienced the biggest local annual drop its median home price, falling from 30.9 percent in March to $328,000 from $475,000 a year earlier. Azusa was close behind with a 27.2 percent drop, bringing its median price for March to $320,000.”
The Daily Breeze. “The South Bay housing market continued its skid in March, with every local city and community cited in a new report seeing a drop in median home price.”
“Most South Bay cities cited in the report posted double-digit losses. Hawthorne’s median home price plunged 27.4 percent to $429,500 in March. Carson’s median dropped 16.6 percent to $417,000.”
“‘It hasn’t been this tough in the South Bay for a while,’ said Adolph James, a Realtor in Manhattan Beach. James said he recently took a ‘knockout listing’ in Rancho Palos Verdes off the market after about four months because the seller gave up.”
“‘The owner was getting tired of showing it,’ James said.”
“The housing market has been so slow that many South Bay cities, including Gardena and Lawndale, cannot make the 30-sale-minimum cutoff. However, these cities’ home sales are included in the regional median figures such as those for the county, South Bay or Palos Verdes Peninsula.”
The Ventura County Star. “Stoked by a rash of short sales and other distressed transactions, inventory of homes on the market has swelled as demand has sagged. Quality also has become an issue as strapped homeowners seemed to have lost that ‘pride of ownership.’”
“Properties foreclosed on within the past year accounted for 35.2 percent of the existing homes sold in Ventura County during March, according to DataQuick. ‘There’s not a lot selling, and a significant chunk of what is selling is stressed,’ said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.”
“Bargain hunters are often dismayed by what they find. Buyers hoping for a deal shouldn’t expect mint condition, said Temple Schneider, a Camarillo Realtor.”
“Some sellers have left water running or stripped out copper plumbing before they vacated, said Dale King, president of the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors.”
“It’s apparent that sellers aren’t rushing to install the granite counter tops and wooden floors like they were a few years ago. Among distressed properties, ‘the pride of ownership is just gone,’ said Cathy Titus, a Realtor in Ojai.”
“She’s seen homes with dishes piled high and junk scattered everywhere. In many cases, owners don’t have money to do repairs — that’s ‘very normal these days in this market,’ Titus said. ‘When people are really stressed, cleaning house is the last thing they feel like doing.’”
“Even sellers who are not in distress are having to sell their homes for not much more than trashed properties, if they’re serious about making the sale, Schneider said. She recently sold a spotless, non-distressed house for $10,000 more than the ‘completely wrecked’ house for sale next door.”
“Many homes on the market offer ‘good bang for the buck,’ King said, citing a number of detached homes in the county selling in the low $300,000s, he said. ‘When the market is hot, sellers are fixing it (homes) up because that’s the way you get attention,’ King said. ‘Now buyers are looking at price and value.’”
The Contra Costa Times. “Two auctions in the East Bay next week show that developers and builders are eager to sell off their slow-moving homes. Vista Del Mar’s neighborhoods range from 1,560 to 3,665 square feet and feature fireplaces, tile entry ways, master suites and walk-in closets. Homeowner association fees are $132 a month for the Villages only.”
“Minimum bids start at $265,000 for 1,560-square-foot homes at the Villages. The homes were priced previously from $470,990 to $836,044.”
“Jade, a 70-plus condominium development in downtown Oakland will also be auctioning off its remaining 34 homes May 4 . Minimum bids start at $259,000 for three one-bedroom, one-bath units.”
“‘It’s one of the best-selling communities in downtown Oakland, but the auction process is working better than the conventional way,’ said Ken Stevens, CEO of Accelerated Marketing Partners in Danville.. ‘Developers need to move inventory fast.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “Hurt by competition from cheaper foreclosed properties, new-home construction in California could be facing its slowest year in decades.”
“The California Building Industry Association said Friday that statewide housing starts in March fell 65 percent from a year earlier. The total of 4,713 starts made it the worst March for home building in California since month-by-month recordkeeping began in 1976, said association spokesman John Frith.”
“Association economist Alan Nevin said the number of single-family homes built this year could be as low as 40,000. That would be the lowest since the association began keeping annual records in 1961.”
“Nevin said the construction slump is being worsened by the flood of repossessed homes that lenders are unloading at steep discounts. About half the home sales in the Sacramento area this year are repossessed properties, and the median sale price in Sacramento County of all homes has fallen 36 percent since the 2005 peak.”
“‘We have a tsunami of foreclosures coming this quarter,’ Nevin said. Faced with low-price competition from the banks, home builders are choosing not to build, Nevin said. ‘The builders would rather sit with the land than give it away,’ he said.”
The Press Enterprise. “Home construction has skidded to a near-standstill in Inland Southern California, with the number of new homes started in the first three months of 2008 dropping 59 percent in Riverside County and 64 percent in San Bernardino County compared to the same period a year earlier, a building consultant said Friday.”
“‘It is not a housing recession anymore. It is a housing depression and the Inland Empire is the epicenter,’ said Steve Johnson, director of MetroStudy.”
“The building slowdown reflects the industry’s efforts to adjust to shrunken demand and to clear a glut of completed but unsold homes before launching new projects.”
“The biggest obstacle builders face is tighter lending qualifications for buyers, he said. In addition, people hesitate to buy for fear that home prices may continue to fall or they will be harmed by the region’s softening economy, Johnson said.”
“‘It is a big purchase decision and nobody wants to buy at the wrong time,’ he said.”
“Borre Winckel, executive director of the Riverside County Chapter of the Building Industry Association, said it has been difficult for the industry to predict when the housing market will reach a bottom. One reason, he said, is that international forces are influencing the soaring prices of gasoline and food that leave consumers with less money for monthly mortgage payments.”
“‘Every time we think we found the bottom, something happens globally,’ Winckel said. ‘We have gone long beyond the stage where it was all about (the collapse of) the subprime mortgage market.’”
The Visalia Times Delta. “When Derek and Lauren West bought their home last year in a cozy, well-established rural subdivision south of Visalia, they were told upscale homes would be built next door where a golf course once operated. They’re still waiting.”
“‘I wish the golf course was still there,’ said Derek. He is referring to the Sierra View Golf Course, which surrounded the development until 2006. The grounds that were once an 18-hole golf course are now overgrown with weeds — and an increasing fire danger, the Wests say.”
“‘Actually, it would have been OK to have homes there, too,’ he said.”
“The Wests — owners of one of 32 existing homes in the rural neighborhood — simply want proper maintenance of the now-vacant land until such time as construction takes place.”
“Some four years ago, Reynen-Bardis bought up thousands of Visalia-area building lots, including some 10,000 lots from Mangano Homes, said Mangano partner Robert Dowds. Reynen-Bardis founder John Reynen filed for personal bankruptcy Wednesday — stemming from nonpayment of $750 million in loans acquired by the company that were personally guaranteed by Reynen and co-founder Christo Bardis.”
“‘Right now, there are no new proposals [for that site],’ said Tulare County Supervisor Phil Cox.”
The Merced Sun Star. “Casey Steed wants to know where his bike path is. The trail runs through two new subdivisions in northeast Merced. It’s the responsibility of the two developers building the new neighborhoods to put in the path — it was one of the conditions of approval when the city OK’d their projects.”
“But now that building has stopped at Bright Homes’ Summer Creek neighborhood and Lakemont Homes’ Moraga development, so has work on the path. It’s one of several infrastructure projects around the city that have hit similar roadblocks. Standing in their way: a frozen housing market.”
“Steed says the unfinished path shows that the city doesn’t follow its ‘growth pays for growth’ policy. That’s the mantra city officials repeated again and again as new developments were approved, to assure residents that infrastructure would keep up with new housing, said Steed.”
“He took his complaints to the City Council earlier this month. ‘I was going to bring the tape where several council members stated that development pays for development, but it wore out,’ Steed told the council. ‘And quite frankly I’m tired of hearing it. When these projects were approved I don’t think there was any qualification for (what happens) if the market falls out.’”
“After Steed voiced his concerns, the City Council instructed staff to apply for a state grant that could pay for the unfinished path, instead of waiting for developers to start building again.”
“To Steed, that’s an unacceptable solution. As he sees it, the developers were responsible for the work, and the city was supposed to make sure they did it.”
“‘Who’s asleep at the switch over there (at the city) and how come these things aren’t being watched?’ said Steed. ‘It’s too little, too late.’”
The Monterey County Weekly. “(A) Monterey-based hard money broker has deeply reduced interest payments, alarming hundreds of local investors who want their cash back.”
“David Nilsen, owner of the lending and investment firm, says investors were never guaranteed 10.75 percent, nor were they told their investments were liquid. ‘I never told them they could walk in and get their check,’ Nilsen says. ‘We are not a bank.’”
“Cedar Funding has about 1,500 investors, most of them local, Nilsen says. The company, he says, manages about $160 million in loans secured by deeds of trust on commercial and residential real estate located on the Central Coast and other parts of California.”
“‘Most of the loans we have are construction loans and they have interest reserves,’ Nilsen says, adding that the reserves are funded by new investment money that comes in every month. He says negative media coverage of the real estate market has scared off new investors. ‘We have a slowdown of money coming in right now.’”
“In an April 10 letter to investors, Nilsen says deed-of-trust investors will receive their money once the borrowers’ checks have cleared the bank. Investors like Beverly Hartnell are anxious for the check to clear. Hartnell is retired and lives off Laureles Grade. She invested $100,000 between the mortgage fund and a portion of a deed of trust.”
“Now Hartnell feels insecure about her finances. ‘Those two dividends are actually money that I use to pay my bills,’ Hartnell says. ‘Fortunately, I have a little bit of savings. Otherwise I’d be eating a lot of beans.’”
‘Steed says the unfinished path shows that the city doesn’t follow its ‘growth pays for growth’ policy. That’s the mantra city officials repeated again and again as new developments were approved, to assure residents that infrastructure would keep up with new housing, said Steed.’
‘He took his complaints to the City Council earlier this month. ‘I was going to bring the tape where several council members stated that development pays for development, but it wore out,’ Steed told the council. ‘And quite frankly I’m tired of hearing it.’
Man oh man, am I glad to see this myth being put to rest. We had hundreds of troll fights over this. If it was true, people could just start putting up houses in the middle of no where and an economy would spring up.
And don’t worry Nevin. These developers won’t have to give their precious land away. It’ll be taken from them like that guy in Sacramento this week. And they’ll probably take all their houses too, just like they did with him.
Let them eat beans.
As we move inexorably forward all of the “myths” that the housing boosters relied on will be shattered and left to disappear like a mirage in the desert. There is just no other way things can happen…
Time for a good dose of Will Rogers:
1. Never slap a man who’s chewing tobacco.
2. Never kick a cow chip on a hot day.
3. There are two theories to arguing with a woman…neither works.
4. Never miss a good chance to shut up.
5. Always drink upstream from the herd.
6. If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
7. The quickest way to double your money is to fold it and put it back in your pocket.
8. There are three kinds of men: The ones that learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence and find out for themselves.
9. Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.
10. If you’re riding’ ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it’s still there.
11. Lettin’ the cat outta the bag is a whole lot easier’n puttin’ it back.
12. After eating an entire bull, a mountain lion felt so good he started roaring. He kept it up until a hunter came along and shot him. The moral: When you’re full of bull, keep your mouth shut.
Just forwarded that to about 10 friends. Thanks!
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell”
- Edward Abbey
Loser by technical knockout, in the 4th Round…
“‘It hasn’t been this tough in the South Bay for a while,’ said Adolph James, a Realtor in Manhattan Beach. James said he recently took a ‘knockout listing’ in Rancho Palos Verdes off the market after about four months because the seller gave up.”
lol
Manhattan Beach and RPV are both still insanely priced. But there are properties on the market listed for $250k less than what would have sold 30 months ago.
Credit is tightening. The viscous cycle has begun. More defaults… tighter requirements for down payments… lower sales prices… more defaults. Rinse and repeat.
I’ll admit a few years ago I was part of the ‘fast downturn crowd.’ Now I know better. Live and learn.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“Manhattan Beach and RPV are both still insanely priced. But there are properties on the market listed for $250k less than what would have sold 30 months ago.”
Entire SB and Westside are ticking timebombs. Nothing can save those properties from 30-40% declines unless the US relaxes it’s immigration restrictions for the Chinese and we suddenly get 1 million weathly Chinese expats buying up LA coastal properties. Ain’t gonna happen. Even if it does the chinese have the same internet access to RE info as we do here and will bargain at 50% discount off peak.
There may already be some weathy Chinese buying up properties in San Marino, Arcadia, Monterey, temple city, San Gabriel, and other areas in the west San Gabriel valley as i have noticed those zips are bucking the trend for declining LA YOY. And those are favored areas for Chinese and other far eastern expats.
“La Puente experienced the biggest local annual drop its median home price, falling from 30.9 percent in March to $328,000 from $475,000 a year earlier. Azusa was close behind with a 27.2 percent drop, bringing its median price for March to $320,000.”
La Puente is a real dumpzone. It is at the western end of the city of industry industrial zone, which is quite gritty and pockmarked with sweatshop processing industrail operations. I went there often in 2006-07 and saw quite a few factories shuttering up or shuttered, leaving decayed former shells with weedy trashed lots.
Lots of industries closing there which only means that those marginal immigrant factory jobs moved to mexico or china, leaving a depressed area with lots of idle immigrants and resultant closed or marginal small businesses in the area, which was tacky to begin with . THat is why housing in that area dropped so much. The only business that seems to be booming and appears to be recession-proof is the strip club joints, which are a prominent feature of that area.
Lots of gang activity there which is nothing new for LA but it never gets the attention of the MSM media as the entire area is a forgotten waylaid grimy semi-industrial district which about a million commuters a day see out of their cars as they get stuck along the 60 fwy which is one of the worst clogged SCal fwys due to heavy truck traffic.
Heard on All Things Considered yesterday (Fri Apr 25) that US has changed immigration standards for Chinese tourists, allowing more access. Residency standards will differ, but of course they will be linked to ability to “invest” in US.
Not to worry, we just need to offer immunity to corrupted chinese officials and businessmen, like they are doing in Canada, then we will not only have them pay for the used houses, but all the attorney fees just so that they can stay here without being deported for trial back in China.
Yeah, even the previously unattainable Danville and Alamo are starting to show signs of weakness in their respective markets. San Ramon is already in the shitter.
“The viscous cycle has begun…”
Would that be the sinking in quicksand where struggling makes it worse?
(Too much fluids and heat transfer for Neil, I think.)
“Some four years ago, Reynen-Bardis bought up thousands of Visalia-area building lots, including some 10,000 lots from Mangano Homes, said Mangano partner Robert Dowds. Reynen-Bardis founder John Reynen filed for personal bankruptcy Wednesday — stemming from nonpayment of $750 million in loans acquired by the company that were personally guaranteed by Reynen and co-founder Christo Bardis.”
_____________________________________________________________
Visalia has just over 100,000 people I think, and 10,000 lots are in limbo from just one mid-size builder going BK?
This party is still just getting started…
There’s more:
‘ Waterman Junction, a SunCal Cos. proposed master-planned community to be built south of Barstow, is expected to provide about 25,000 homes in the next 20 to 30 years.
A new recreational lake, parks, trails, a golf course, local shopping and jobs are all part of the plan,” said Peter Johnson, San Bernardino County Division president of Irvine-based SunCal.
“This is going to change the face of Barstow forever,” said Barstow Public Information Officer John Rader. “The city’s population is 24,000 now. At (Waterman Junction) buildout, we could be at a population of 75,000.”
Yeah, and those 51,000 additional people are going to move to Barstow because it’s such an attractive place to live. They should start calling Mr. Rader “Barstow John” after “Baghdad Bob”. The trick would be creating a visualization of mortgages exploding all around him as he spewed his hype.
Cue Sam Kinison: “This is a FREAKING DESERT…..”
Barstow has a vast railroad yard and quite the natural stopping place for today’s neo-hobo.
Lots of homeless there.
Just curious….where’s the water for all this going to come from??
No kidding - I was just thinking about the “lake” at Hesperia and that big one out Barstow by I-15 that was supposed to be some kind of destination camping & swimming place. The name escapes me but it’s been moribund for decades.
Lake Delores?
You got it! Thanks. What’s the story on that place, anyway? I’ve been going by that place for 30 years and have never seen anyone, but there it sits. Another boom gone bust?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Dolores
Barstow has a severe water shortage
“Barstow has a severe water shortage”
Barstow has no water period, unless there is some underground oasis spring source there! Unlikely as there is no green garden spot in all of barstow .
Any reliable constant water source for those hi-desert communities would likely be diverted from the LA aqueduct . The entire hi-desert from palmdale all way to apple valley has zilch water sources , except for some communities in the hi-desert foothills near the San Gabriel/San bernardino Mountains. That is a tiny uncertain source of water to provide for a hi-desert population of close to a million. I say that most of the water is diverted from the LA aqueduct, which runs 50-100 miles to the west. Another highly unlikely source would be the Colorado river.
Rainfall averages less than 5″ in the desert, and most of that falls in a couple of major desert downpours in winter when the desert can actually have severe flooding problems. That water quicky dissipates however and 10 months of the year the desert is either scorching 100% hot or wind blasted with 50-70 mph gusts. Very inhospitable environment and very stupid to buy desert property with gas at $4.00 a gal .
That’s surprising for such a verdant terrain…
….on a more serious note, the JT harvest is sweet in those parts.
Speaking of water i went to Huntington beach today to take a bike ride and a quick dip. It was a balmy 80% and the crowds were out in force on the boardwalk/bike path and on the sand.
Getting back to topic, i noticed that the realtor signs were out in force today pushing those HB beachside condo units. It looks as if this weekend there is a big sprouting of RE signs and active selling activity all over the LA region . Is this the last desperate push by sellers and realtors to push those overpriced LA/OC crappers- the late spring/ early summer push? They have 3-4 more months to move those McCrappers before the early fall brings another Calamitous stepdown in LA Area RE values.
IMHO this is the last desperate gasp of the REIC and desperate sellers before the SHTF by fall 2008.
We did have a lot of rain this past winter. I expect that last summer’s signs went to seed and you’re seeing the spring bloom now.
If those signs stay up into the summer I expect a bad fire season in the fall.
Barstow will be the next Salton Sea.
I would recommend Barstow instead plant fields of Joshua Trees on that land……..the country is going to need a lot of em….starting with Barstow! Ok…load up the truck….on to Vegas now.
“Waterman Junction, a SunCal Cos. proposed master-planned community to be built south of Barstow, is expected to provide about 25,000 homes in the next 20 to 30 years.”
I made the trip out to barstow about 20 times in august 2007.
In 100% weather. From victorville to barstow is about 50 miles of the most bleakest driest barren desert terrain in the CA hi-desert. In the 100% scorching summer heat the desert appears a bone-white color. I am not aware of any lake or water source out there except for the mohave river, which might be an intermittent desert bone dry wash half the year.
Barstow itself is an islated little desert outpost/ stopover going from LA to Vegas, famous for it’s outlet malls. It is all retail, quick food outlets and motels. It is maybe a step above another isolated desert outpost settlement, Mohave, which is the bottom of the barrow as far as livable desert burgs.
Land costs would be very cheap out there, as is is worthless for anything but building more cheap stucco tracts.
The only economy is people travelling through to Vegas. I can’t even see it as a senior community as it is way too hot.
My immediate thought is, “Why the crap does a town of 24,000 people need a “Public Information Officer?” To spin the bullshiite?
to operate the Speakwrite….another in a long list of dirty jobs in muni-globo-ponzi finance.
to impress chicks in hollywood you’ll have to say “I rent” !
…and have both a penis and a vagina.
ex…its rent with an option to buy the peegina.
…. In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick, 4.9 percent, or 14 out of 283 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
I guess reporting the number of price increases sounds better than saying 95.1% of median home prices fell.
Just imagine how many ticking time bombs like this, there are out there?
As they explode, the collateral damage is devastating…
“Cedar Funding has about 1,500 investors, most of them local, Nilsen says. The company, he says, manages about $160 million in loans secured by deeds of trust on commercial and residential real estate located on the Central Coast and other parts of California.”
Ha. My MIL lives not far from downtown Monterey. They razed an old house across the street from her and put in two nice-looking houses that I’m sure were planned to sell for $$$, considering what’s happened to the neighborhood since she bought.
Well, we visit monthly. Last few visits, no change in construction. She tells me that they just stopped working on it, even left 1/2 the roof unfinished on one, even with rain coming in and all. Most recent visit, the fence company and pottie company have come out and taken away their property. The houses just sit there, not bad looking, but unfinished and ignored.
most recent visit, the fence company and pottie company have come out and taken away their property.
Bad sign. That implies the builder went BK. Best to bulldoze them before vagrants move in.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“Home sales decreased 24.5 percent in March in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent, the C.A.R. reported.”
The news keeps getting better and better. I cant wait until 2010 when ppl begin to migrate to CA because that’s the only place they can afford to live. Actions have consquences. Pure beauty.
I cant wait until 2010 when ppl begin to migrate to CA because that’s the only place they can afford to live. Actions have consquences. Pure beauty.
2011 would be more accurate. 2010 will still be during the downswing. I’m seeing evidence of too many big corporate moves out of CA or DC for them to have net immigration before then. Prices will undershoot. But be patient. This is going to be like watching a glacier race.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“‘Most of the loans we have are construction loans and they have interest reserves,’ Nilsen says, adding that the reserves are funded by new investment money that comes in every month. ”
So what happens when the investment money runs out?? I’m not an expert on the original Ponzi scheme, but wasn’t that how it worked??
Blano…you nailed that one before me
I also thought “Ponzi scheme” when I read that.
i dunno a whole lot about these hard-money guys, but they do take a huge cut. I think they charge like 20% or more, plus load and/or fees while investors’ returns are below 10%. And the money is forever more pretty much out of the investor’s control.
10% is a decent return but along with it comes commesurately high risk. It’s not a place for little old ladies to be gambling with their milk money.
“‘Most of the loans we have are construction loans and they have interest reserves,’ Nilsen says, adding that the reserves are funded by new investment money that comes in every month.”
Ponzi would be proud.
A perpetual-motion machine.
“Those numbers…don’t surprise Chris Vigil, a broker and licensed appraiser in Santa Fe Springs. ‘I guess it’s to be expected because of the inventory that’s on the market,’ he said. ‘It’s not a normal inventory because short sales and foreclosures are not normal.’”
Of course nothing surprises Chris, who has been keeping vigil. But his analysis is flawed. As of recently, FALLING real estate prices are normal. Short sales are normal. Foreclosures are normal. Clownifornians unable to get and spend HELOC $$$ is normal. Depression, anxiety, felonies, divorces and suicides over evaporated $$$ is normal. Used house salepeople getting a small fraction of last year’s income is now normal. Let’s try keeping a vigil on the new normal depression economy, versus the old unsustainable mania, Chris.
Amen!
Sure to get low Nilsen Ratings, resulting in cancellation of show.
“In an April 10 letter to investors, Nilsen says deed-of-trust investors will receive their money once the borrowers’ checks have cleared the bank. Investors like Beverly Hartnell are anxious for the check to clear. Hartnell is retired and lives off Laureles Grade. She invested $100,000 between the mortgage fund and a portion of a deed of trust.”
Although put this observation on another thread, it belongs on a CA thread as that is where I left.
I decided I am offended by the terms Realtard and Realtwhore.
The mentally challenged are usually that way through no fault of their own - birth, ilness, accident, etc.
A whore at least gives the cost up front before f#cking the client. As an example, $75K for a former governor of an unnamed stated.
Now, as for the used house salespeople, they didn’t have any such decency
Just refer to them as “agents”…
…agents of despair, of destruction - you get the idea.
Casey Steed wants to know where his bike path is.
Is he an alias for the criminal Foreclosure Casey?
Foreclosure Casey is Casey Serin.
BayQT~
I bought a vacuum cleaner from a Sams Club. Wife hated it. I took it back within warranty time. Clerk asked if I had used it. I said yes. She said she couldn’t resell it. So it will be a throwaway (I guess). I got my money back in full. Now too bad that isn’t the same for used houses. How funny would that be? Especially on overpriced CA crapboxes.
The difference is that you actually paid for the vacuum cleaner, whereas most FB’s paid not a dime of their own money for “their” houses.
What a waste. Why not just discount the vacuum to reflect its use? I hate waste!
“David Nilsen, owner of the lending and investment firm, says investors were never guaranteed 10.75 percent, nor were they told their investments were liquid. ‘I never told them they could walk in and get their check,’ Nilsen says. ‘We are not a bank.’”
“Thank you, come again. Smithers, release the hounds”
As in the Hotel California …
You can check-in your money anytime.
But it can never leave.
Can we all get a loan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMfr2CgIPhg&feature=related
“Home sales decreased 24.5 percent in March in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent, the C.A.R. reported. ‘The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,’ said said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.”
” … and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers’…”
“(or all cash)” = unbacked, fiat, worthless paper? That stuff?
“The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin”
NO, NO, NO! It’s the lack of affordable homes you idiot! Just STFU already.
“Borre Winckel, executive director of the Riverside County Chapter of the Building Industry Association, said it has been difficult for the industry to predict when the housing market will reach a bottom. One reason, he said, is that international forces are influencing the soaring prices of gasoline and food that leave consumers with less money for monthly mortgage payments.”
It’s not just the bottom you’ve had difficulty predicting, it’s everything. So now the problem is “international forces”. It’s never that the price of housing is still well above that supported by incomes.
“‘Every time we think we found the bottom, something happens globally,’ Winckel said. ‘We have gone long beyond the stage where it was all about (the collapse of) the subprime mortgage market.’”
It was never all about subprime. It was fundamentally about the price of housing being much too far above incomes. Until you understand that, you will never have any chance of finding something close to the actual bottom.
At this point, i don’t think these guys are ignorant or stupid or deluded.
imo, every word out of their mouths is either advertising, propaganda, public relations or damage control.
It’s not just the bottom you’ve had difficulty predicting, it’s everything. So now the problem is “international forces”. It’s never that the price of housing is still well above that supported by incomes.
Wait a second… weren’t international investors supposed to swoop in and save the housing market?
I no longer get my adrenaline up over people saying it will turn quickly.
I just taunt them about the cost of shipping goods into our over-congested cities!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Oh well, I guess if they feel comforted in their excuses. Hurricanes are another good excuse for housing bubbles coming to an end.
“‘Every time we think we found the bottom, something happens globally.”
Having trouble finding your bottom? Look behind you; it’s that thing the Joshua Tree is sticking out of!
Or course it not all about the collapse of the subprime market anymore. We have the liar loans and the pick-your-payment loans coming up as well.
Bbb-baby you just aint seen nnn-nothin yet……
Subprime was merely an ill-conceived gimmick to trick prospective buyers into believing they could afford to purchase homes at unaffordable multiples of their incomes.
“Quality also has become an issue as strapped homeowners seemed to have lost that ‘pride of ownership.’”
There is no “pride of ownership” because THEY DON’T OWN ANYTHING! “Pride of ownership” is a phrase peddled to arrogant idiots to induce them to overpay for a ‘home.’
Yes, much better to purchase a mortgage for $2500 a month when you can rent the underlying ‘asset’ for $1500 per month. And, in 5 years when you want to move, you have to bring $200,000 to the closing table. Where do I sign?
There was a thread yesterday about McMansions/condos remaining for the most part unfurnished, after the buyers moved in. Some chalked it up to a lack of money. I was thinking it was because most never intended to keep the place for more than a year or so..
I can see taking some pride in ones self for a supposedly savvy financial move.. but pride of ownership? In no way did that sell many bubble homes.
I almost purchased a faux princess cut diamond tennis bracelet.
Even at $98.00 I realized the only thing that excites me is real diamonds. I passed because I knew it was not real.
It would never excite me.
Renting is sort of like that. It’s nice but it just ain’t mine.
I rent from a Delta pilot. Yes Sir re Bob, or should I say Capn’?
Aladinsane,
Have you finished reading Earth Abides?
Yes,
Thanks for the tip…
I found it really interesting and compared it somewhat to where I live in California, where there were around 1,500 to 3,000 Indians that all started dying of Measles during the 1860’s, 90+% of the population gone to a disease that merely lays us up for a few days, as a child.
The Indians here had lived peacefully for 500 years, and then in the blink of an eye, they were gone and only their name remains, for there are no full-bred people left of their culture, and few other visual clues they were ever here, aside from mortar holes in rocks, which is where they ground acorns, their main source of food.
In Earth Abides, a super-Measles strain does in 99.99% of the population, and I won’t give away any more plot…
Recommended!
“found it really interesting and compared it somewhat to where I live in California, where there were around 1,500 to 3,000 Indians that all started dying of Measles during the 1860’s, 90+% of the population gone to a disease that merely lays us up for a few days, as a child.”
I once visited the Fort Tejon tiny musuem in Gorman, off the 5 fwy halfway from LA to Bakersfried. I read where US army troopers forcefully removed the Tule indians from the Central valley Tule marshlands, and put them into reservations or holding pens. This was in the 1950’s or 1960’s.
lots of dark pages in the US Annals regarding the forceful removal and resettlement of indians from their hallowed grounds, with resultant death and misery due to diseases and simply having their culture and way of life destroyed.
I am sure CA history abounds in this stuff but is largly hidden in the standard history texts.
” This was in the 1950’s or 1960’s”
Sorry, i am one century ahead here. 1850’s -1860’s . Attribute it to a Sat night Vodka swig.
The forceful removal/ resettlement with resulting decimation of the Indian tribes in CA remains a little-known dark chapter in Ca history. Not only with the coming of the gringos but before that during the heydey of the Spanish Mission period when the indians were simply treated as slaves to work in the missions, something like forced labor comcentration camps .
Such lost indian cultures as the Chumash of the Santa barbara coast is recorded at the LA history Musuem.
Will history write a similar epitath for our society and culture some time down the road, as the US slips from being a first rate power to a third rate debter banana republic, ala Argentina in the last century in the age of Peron.
Yup, here in SD we have the Battle of San Pasquale, where the natives held one last stand against the white settlers poaching their land.
Consider the impact that the Black Death (30%-40% death rate) had on medieval European society. There were parts where it took CENTURIES to fully recover. In fact, some marginal farming areas in England never did because American migration was an option by the time population pressure became sufficiently intense to warrant the work.
I don’t believe ANY society could handle a 90% death rate, without collapsing absolutely beyond recognition.
“Indians here had lived peacefully for 500 years”
I wonder where you got this from. Before European countries ever came to the Americas, many Native American tribes fought each other for hunting grounds, etc. To this day, there is still some “rivalry” between tribes (I personally saw this doing wildland fires while in college).
From everything I’ve read, the coastal tribes were relatively peaceful. It’s the native Americans of the Plains that were prone to battling over territory, such as the Comanches and Sioux.
–
Price decline is lot more serious beginning in August 2007 when the credit crisis began. For the last two Quarters:
Average Price of Resale SFH:
2008Q1 $421,330 -45.1% Annual Rate
2007Q3 $568,610
Jas
California single family homes down 29% year over year is a huge adjustment. There does not seem to be any way to make a Japan style prolonged deflation scenario out of this. This is a bust, and a few years should do it.
That Monterey County would crater like this is not what I expected. This might indicate that the value of retirement havens is a shallow pool.
Well, you could go down 29% a year and still retain 36% of peak value after three years. Sounds about right.
With taxes, maintenance, insurance, tight credit, declining resale values as far as the eye can see, etc., CA houses are likely going to undershoot historic price-to-rent/income factors by a significant degree. Overvalued by 150% could easily go to undervalued by 30%. That equates to 28% of peak value.
‘The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,’ said said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.”
————————
Anyone else here believe there are no loans for “qualified” buyers?
I’ll challenge anyone who makes this claim by offering to get a mortgage the very next business day. I’ll even agree to getting loans from five different lenders, just to make the point.
Qualified buyers currently have no problem getting loans, and I suspect they will ALWAYS be able to get mortgage loans. The key word is “qualified”.
Having a 750 FICO score does not, and should not, “qualify” someone for a $500K loan. It’s money down, debt/income levels and job security that matter.
I’d be willing to make a loan to a 400 FICO borrower if he/she put down 50% and had a very low debt-to-income ratio — especially if the housing market were stable.
lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers..
The statment makes no sense to me..
When a particular property is matched with a person who is “qualified”, they can by definition, get a loan for that property. You cannot be a qualified buyer who doesn’t qualify for the loan.
What Leslie knows and could say is that, unlike during the run-up, unqualified buyers are now having problems getting loans… but those words stick in her throat.
“‘We have a slowdown of money coming in right now.’”
Didn’t he mean to say a meltdown?
you actually paid for the vacuum cleaner
Yes, jbunniii - I paid my hard earned cash (about $250). They handed me back same amount on the refund, and I bought another vacuum. But at least not an FBer. I met a few.
How about used house salespeople as Agent A$$holes of despair.
Yeah, even the previously unattainable Danville and Alamo are starting to show signs of weakness in their respective markets. San Ramon is already in the shitter.
MUSIC TO MY EARS. Love hearing bad San Ramon news.
FB’s may not be able to sell their SUV’s for needed cash
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080426/ap_on_bi_ge/cars_suv_pileup;_ylt=Aj6KOm8oFp5xqzTe8FHeJt2s0NUE
If a driver puts in few miles each year, say 7,000, then buying an SUV might make good sense if he can get one at a hefty discount.
The price discount of the vehicle might more than offset the added cost of the fuel.
That’s what I did. We have occasional need for a 4wd in winter, business related. Bought an ‘04 Xterra w/low miles at an entertaining discount, and it travels very little, day to day. I tend to fill it every 2-3 weeks, which reminds me to knock off Sunday drives.
Okay, but factor in the higher carbon emissions that SUVs spew. They don’t have to meet the same pollution standards that cars do.
About all that Barstow news. 50K new residents? Who? Didn’t we have a thread last year about some A$$hat proposing a bad A$$ casino and bought up property in some dumpwater town 15-20 east of Barstow (forgot the name) on I-40. This new community must be both the workforce and customers for this casino I figure will never get out of whoevers imagination.
“Orange County $510,000.00 $629,000.00 -18.9%”
Gary Watts promised double digit price changes in the OC, and the man is NEVER wrong!
But its different in Ventura County…. everyone wants to live there
But these same bargain hunters are often dismayed by what they find. Buyers hoping for a deal shouldn’t expect mint condition, she said.
In some extreme cases, bitter tenants have trashed their homes before being forced to leave, pouring cement down sinks and defacing walls.
Some sellers have left water running or stripped out copper plumbing before they vacated, said Dale King, president of the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors.
I went to a appliance retailer today. Traffic was light, and the Viking /Sub-Zero crowd was there. 0% financing for 18 mos. is being offered. Lots of lookie-loos, but not a lot of sales.
A freak’n 25 cu ft SS (pole handles) side by side was $4,100-. Ouch, that hurts. Dollar slips/imports go up.
‘The lack of available funds for loans, even for QUALIFIED buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,’ said said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.”
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Inigo Montoya, Princess Bride
“In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick, 4.9 percent, or 14 out of 283 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
The glass is 4.9 percent full. Alternatively, in case you are a half-empty-glass sort of gloomster, you could fairly claim that 95.1 percent of California communities either saw no increase or a decline in their respective median home prices from a year ago.
Probably too late to post on this, but what the heck — will pick it up in tomorrow’s bits bucket if the urge strikes…
Calpers-Linked Land Partnership Gets Default Notice
By MICHAEL CORKERY
April 26, 2008; Page A3
A large California land partnership involving one of the largest U.S. pension funds has received a notice of default on a $1 billion loan after failing to meet certain terms of its lenders.
LandSource Communities Development LLC, a partnership that involves the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, received the default notice Tuesday, amid talks to restructure $1.24 billion of debt. The partnership, which owns 15,000 acres in Southern California, had received an extension to meet its current loan terms, including a required payment, but the deadline expired on April 16. The default notice applies to about $1 billlion of the total debt.
…
Hundreds of lenders, including banks and institutional investors, hold the syndicated debt. Barclays Capital arranged the financing in early 2007. At the time, LandSource’s assets were appraised at $2.6 billion.
Partnerships such as LandSource were a common way to own and develop land during the housing boom. They provided high returns to investors and lenders and a way for builders to keep highly leveraged land off their books. But the ventures have run into trouble as the value of undeveloped land has plummeted and as demand for new homes has eroded.
Amazing, I went up to Ventura last week and found multiple REOs selling for 50 percent below peak sales prices. Unbelievable. One house sold for 550k in 05, now they’re asking 250K and some deals are closing at 230K. Is there anyone out there in Ventura who can tell me if this is back to pre-bubble prices, or do you think there is still significant downside? I’m asking because, jeez, I can just about pencil out some of these deals already but it seems early to jump in.
LA girl,
The hard part about the hard hit areas penciling out is that rents have to stay put. Most of the inland empire, vegas, florida, Az are overbuilt. The fast falling areas are just that because it is the reverse of the ‘everyone wants to live here’….the fact is, everyone wants to live somewhere else, they bought there because it was ‘the only thing i can afford’.
Look at Detroit and Cleveland….houses given away by the city for $1. They are desperate for people. On the commercial real estate sites, rentals regularly pencil out at 35-50% return with 90% occupancy and stable rental prices.
Buyer beware. Drastically falling prices are indictive of falling desire to be there (for whatever reason, jobs, weather, prices, taxes etc). Rentals, homeownership is not a zero sum game. People will team up, move back in with mom and dad or back fill in more desireable places as rents tumble from overbuilding.
IMHO it is best to heed your last statement hedging towards caution. High interest rates, overbuilding, questions about the economy, dramatic food and energy inflation = less disposable income……….it would not suprise me to see some of the outlying areas tunnel under where no one will take them for free.
Ya dont see many people clamoring for the high return rental properties in Detroit……some yes, but not enough to drive up prices.
Caution is a good guide right now……..
Good point, I’m already hearing from current tenants that they have to pay the rent in 3-4 stages because gas, food, utilities etc. are costing them so much. I just can’t get over how cheap it’s gotten in Ventura, I’ve been following that market so closely for about 5 years now, and it just fell off a cliff the past month.
about those $1 houses for sale… My understanding was homes that are first reposessed by the Federal housing entities are then offered only to state-city-county local governements for $1.. with strings attached… like they must remain residential and be refurbished / updated according to FHA specs, along with resale restrictions.
And I recall that govts don’t want most of them due to the low returns.. only 3% or 5% of the many thousands available are picked up.
but back to the topic of buying now or later… having patience will surely save a few bucks.
I see a comatose RE market on the horizon.. investments tied directly to it will underperform for a decade or more.
But buying a home to live in and enjoy is another story.. what the hell.. they’re cheap.. buy two.
Gov setting off underground nuks to clear housing glut ??
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080426/ap_on_re_us/reno_earthquake
Joking of course
Fed’s Steal recs
1. supports plan to let the fox guard the hen house, ie FED take over SEC responsibilities
2. Supports bail out of BS and other banks but not homeowners,
3. Thinks hand picked boards should have exclusive power on pay packages over share holders.
4. Thinks we should allow the creators of this BS mess to own a larger percentage of the lending sector.
This just in, he used to be vice chariman at Goldman Sachs, how surprising. \\
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=amAeV3NLUqSk&refer=home