The Housing Bubble

The North County Times reports from California. “Often heralded as a fortress of strength in a weak housing market, upper-end home prices in North County’s posh neighborhoods have started to show some cracks. In Rancho Santa Fe, mostly composed of custom homes with price tags above $2 million, it would take about 20 months to sell off all the active listings, based on three-month averages of listings and sales. Many homes in Del Mar and Carlsbad have sold for 20 percent under the original asking price, with several sellers willing to let their homes go for $1 million or more below the asking price.”

“For example, one Del Mar home sold for $2.5 million after originally posting a $4.7 million list price. ‘I think people are just getting scared,’ said Diana Williams, a real estate agent who specializes in Del Mar and Rancho Santa Fe. ‘They will set the house at a lower price so they can be sure they’re going to get rid of it.’”

“Less than a year after completing OceanLofts, a luxury, live-work complex a few blocks from the beach, the project’s developer has abandoned plans to sell the units and is recasting them as rentals.”

“‘Their sales have been really weak,’ said Kathy Baker, the city’s redevelopment manager. Baker said a few other developers, with completed or nearly completed projects, have talked with the city about doing the same.”

“‘I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if a few more come forward,’ Baker said.”

“Hamid Nikkho, who is handling the OceanLofts project for the Redwood City-based Amidi Group, denied that his company’s strategy shift was prompted by slow sales. ‘The market slowed down, but that wasn’t the purpose of changing the plan,’ he said, noting that Amidi is trying the same approach with TenTen Wilshire, a 227-unit complex in Los Angeles.”

“Not everyone knows what to think about the switch. ‘We’re not sure how this is going to affect our investment,’ said Stacey Driscoll, who purchased a loft last year.”

The Union Tribune. “Analysts say banks’ eagerness to get houses off their books even if they have to slash prices could continue to be a drag on the market for some time. ‘Remember, all of this foreclosure pain we’ve seen so far has come amid an economic backdrop that, until recently, wasn’t that bad outside of real estate,’ DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said.”

“It’s no mystery why foreclosed properties generally sell for less than nonforeclosures, said Peter Dennehy, senior VP of Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in San Diego.”

“‘In general, the banks are not like homeowners hoping to make a profit,’ Dennehy said. ‘They have no interest in owning real estate, especially when they’re owning more and more of it. They’re the extreme form of a motivated seller.’”

“Agent Linda Ring has sold a number of houses in eastern Chula Vista, where many first-time buyers had stretched beyond their means to buy. The typical foreclosure house in that area is two stories with three to four bedrooms and two to three baths on a 3,000-square-foot lot. Many have upgraded kitchens, Ring said.”

“‘The banks don’t want to attract a fire sale, so they price them the same as the neighbor across the street,’ she said. ‘But once it hits the 120-day mark, the price becomes pretty flexible.’”

The LA Times. “LTV Properties Inc., the Pasadena-based real estate company…runs Repo Home Tours in the Los Angeles area. For buyers, it’s a golden chance in an imploding period. Last month, 38% of homes sold in Southern California were foreclosures, compared with 8% in March 2007, according to DataQuick.”

“The banks are so eager to unload repossessed houses that they’re discounting them at 40% to 60% below market value and selling them, generally speaking, in ‘as is’ condition.”

“David Levario, a 37-year-old construction worker from Montebello, found the tour valuable. ‘I like what they’re offering,’ he said of LTV’s listings. ‘I’m a hard-working man looking for a place for my family. I’m renting and tired of making other people money.’”

The Press Democrat. “In every corner of Sonoma County, a record number of families are losing their homes to foreclosure. But a handful of neighborhoods are being hit far, far worse than others. Three of every five foreclosures in the first quarter of 2008 occurred in Santa Rosa’s west side, Rohnert Park and Windsor, based on an analysis of records collected by DataQuick.”

“‘That’s your vulnerable place. That was entry level. The people that got in at the very end probably shouldn’t have been buying at all. They were pushing it with their loans,’ said Belinda Andrews, an agent working with dozens of homeowners who could lose their houses.”

“‘I sit there and look at data all day long, but I didn’t really notice that it was really this bad until the end of last year. It just seemed certain areas just went over the cliff,’ said Pete Deatherage of Pacific Appraisals in Rohnert Park. ‘Every once in a while I think it’s pulling back, but a week later the data shows something different.’”

“As the price of the typical home in Sonoma County peaked at $619,000 in August 2005…the typical southwest Santa Rosa house sold for $530,000, and in northwest Santa Rosa it cost $516,000. The median price in Cotati-Rohnert Park was $560,000. In Windsor, it was $610,000.”

“‘Those are the blue collar areas. They were good for people with no or low down payments, and the loans were easier to get,’ said Hans Bruhner, managing partner for a Forestville mortgage brokerage.”

“In Bellevue Ranch, a lender is trying to sell a home it foreclosed upon in December. On the same block, two owners are trying to avoid foreclosure by selling their homes for less than they owe.”

“And down the street, the owners of a fourth home must price their house to compete with the three distressed properties. They are asking $347,000, but owe $329,000 on the residence in a neighborhood where similar homes sold for about $540,000 three years ago.”

“Andrews has about 60 listings with homeowners who are behind on payments and attempting short sales. Each one bought two to three years ago with adjustable loans and now can’t afford monthly payments that jumped higher. The owners aren’t able to refinance because they owe more than the homes are currently worth.”

“‘They all have variable loans that adjusted in two to three years. They were all time bombs,’ she said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “As the foreclosure crisis continues, Saturday was a day of desperation, speculation and a whole lot of politicians. Virginia Quintero and her 59-year-old mother came to San Francisco’s Bayview neighborhood Saturday, hoping to save their Pacifica home from the clutches of the bank.”

“Quintero said she, her husband, five children, mother and 86-year-old grandmother all live together and share the cost of the mortgage, which has more than doubled since they bought the home four years ago. Her mother refinanced their house so she could buy out a second party and was seduced by a negative-amortization loan.”

“‘Now it’s at more than $5,000 a month and we just can’t afford that,’ Quintero said.”

“And for those who can’t hold on to their homes, there are hundreds waiting in the wings to buy them - if the price is right. The Cow Palace in Daly City was jammed with real estate speculators looking for good deals. More than 200 repossessed homes were being auctioned off.”

“Real estate agent Annette Vella-Melendez and her investor boyfriend, Abdul Karimian, were planning to watch, not bid. ‘We’ve been told that you can get really caught up in the moment,’ she said. ‘You have to really do your research, or you could wind up paying over market value.’”

“Karimian and his son, Derrick, caught the fever. Within 10 minutes the men had purchased two Vallejo homes: a four bedroom, two-bath for $147,500 and a three-bedroom, two-bath for $150,000.

“‘The deals,’ Vella-Melendez said, ‘were too good to pass up.’”

The Contra Costa Times. “More than 100,000 homeowners in Contra Costa and Alameda counties may see their property taxes fall this year as home values continue heading south.”

“‘Our review won’t begin until May,’ Alameda County Assessor Ron Thomsen said, ‘but we’re probably looking at $2 billion in assessed values being removed from the assessment rolls.’”

“While the numbers are only estimates, Contra Costa Assessor Gus Kramer said the reductions in his county will probably range from 2 percent to 20 percent. The value of many homes could fall to 2002 and 2003 levels. And in East Contra Costa, some homes may return to 1998 levels.”

“‘We’re seeing sales that indicate they should be rolled back to that level,’ Kramer said. ‘More than 50 percent of properties on sale on the open market, in Antioch particularly, are bank-owned. The banks in East County are the market-makers of real estate.’”

“The prospect of a lower property tax bill is little consolation to Ted Diaz, who purchased a 3,000-square-foot home in Pinole last year and is feeling the pressure.”

“Diaz purchased the three-bedroom, 31/2-bath home in the high-$500,000 range, he said. Today, a house identical to his in the same subdivision is selling for $499,000.”

“‘I happen to be one of those who got a bad loan,’ said Diaz, who has an adjustable-rate mortgage. ‘It’s going to cap in five months and go up about $200. I’m close to retirement age and thought this would be a good investment.’”

“‘Everything is coming down on me right now,’ he said. ‘I’m just trying to get by from day to day, and hope I make the right decisions.’”

From ABC 30. “A valley city that experienced a major housing boom is now the state leader in declining home values. The median price of a home in Los Banos dropped from $360,000 last March to just $196,000 last month.”

“Chris and Esther Ortiz’s Los Banos home has been on the market for seven months. They bought the home for $420, 000 three years ago. Now, they’re hoping to get $300,000, but even they acknowledge that may be wishful thinking.”

“‘We purchased it probably at its peak. We were on a waiting list. You had to wait for it to be available. It was pretty high,’ said Chris Ortiz.”

“‘For Sale’ signs seem to be on every street in Los Banos. Most homes are vacant, and those that do sell are going for 45% less than they did last year according to the California Association of Realtors.”

“‘It’s sad. I don’t plan on going anywhere for a while but I definitely would like to see my house go up in value again. We’ve done a lot of improvements and unfortunately for now, it doesn’t show for it,’ said homeowner Erma Catalan.”

“Danny Fialho is buying this 1900 square foot home. It’s still in escrow, but he already has renters waiting. ‘This house is selling today for half of what it sold for three years ago. So that’s why it’s an opportune time to get into the market,’ said Fialho.”

“While the rental market may be flourishing, the Ortiz’s are feeling the effects of bad timing. They’re just ready to move on. ‘It’s taken a toll on us financially. It’s not going to make it any better to hang out for two to three years to see what’s going to happen,’ said Ester Ortiz.”