The Housing Bubble

Some housing bubble news from Washington and the empty houses across the US. Bloomberg, “A record 18.6 million U.S. homes stood empty in the first quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure. The figure is 5.7 percent higher than a year ago, when 17.6 million properties were vacant, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The vacancy rate, the share of homes empty and for sale, rose to 2.9 percent, the highest in a series that goes back to 1956.”

“About 2.3 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 2.2 million a year earlier, the report said. In addition to homes for sale, the report counted 4.1 million vacant homes that are for rent and 4.7 million that are seasonal.”

“Most foreclosures are contained in the report’s ‘other’ category, which includes homes tied up in legal proceedings as well as homes that are empty because the owner is renovating and living somewhere else, according to the Census Web site. There were 7.5 million such homes that were vacant, up from 7.3 million a year earlier, the report said.”

The Associated Press. “The national vacancy rate, including new and existing homes, has been steadily rising since mid-2005. ‘The inventory problem has not gotten any better,’ said economist Patrick Newport. Although glut-fighting home builders have reined in construction, ‘they still will have to cut back more.’”

From MarketWatch. “Families are no more likely to own their home now than they were in 2002, even with the big effort to push families with poor credit into homeownership through subprime mortgages. The percentage of homes occupied by owners ticked up to 67.9% from 67.7%, after peaking at 69.2% in 2004.”

“‘Given tight lending standards and foreclosures, we expect the homeownership rate will continue to edge lower,’ wrote Michele Meyer, an economist for Lehman Bros.’”

“The vacancy rate rose to…about 1 million more than was typical before the housing bubble burst. Analysts say the housing market won’t recover until the glut of vacant homes on the market can be worked down.”

“‘There is clearly still substantial excess housing supply that will take time to work off,’ wrote economists for Goldman Sachs. ‘We think it unlikely that prices begin to stabilize until vacancy rates start declining.’”

The St Petersburg Times from Florida. “Five hundred people turned out for the (condominium) groundbreaking in 2005, complete with spotlights, valets and a sand sculpture of the towers-to-be. All 257 units in these two 29-story towers were snatched up in 13 days, before ground was even broken.”

“But alas, this is Florida, where another boom has busted. Two-thirds of the buyers have backed out. Deals have been shredded, lawsuits filed. The developer sought bankruptcy protection after the fallout.”

“That left Johnny Foens, who kept his promise and moved into the middle of a city of 318,000 in a county of 1.1-million, in a region of 2.7-million, and found himself living in a tower nearly alone.”

“‘We’d really like to meet some couples,’ says Johnny’s girlfriend, Amanda, ‘but there’s nobody here to meet.’”

The Star Tribune from Minnesota. “The three dozen residents of the Sexton are scattered widely among the mostly vacant 123 units in the downtown Minneapolis condominium building.”

“In some cases, unit sales at the Sexton mirror the boom and bust of the condo market. One unit sold in August 2006 for $620,000 with no down payment, according to property records. It went into foreclosure nine months later and most recently was listed for sale at $109,900.”

“Its reputation as a troubled project is widely known, said Tom Melchior, a multifamily analyst. ‘[The Sexton] doesn’t come up in conversations very often, but when it does, the comment usually is something like ‘That place is really a mess,’ Melchior said.”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “The Triangle’s traditionally robust spring home selling season began with a whimper. One problem is a rising inventory of speculative homes, those built without a buyer lined up.”

“Although overall sales are down, builders keep adding to the market glut by churning out higher-priced homes. There were 4,753 spec homes on the market in March. That’s up nearly 12 percent from a year earlier.”

“Average spec home prices were $608,822 in Orange, $434,810 in Wake, $289,091 in Durham and $249,213 in Johnston. ‘A whole lot of builders were committed to build on lots and built homes even though they had to know the market was adjusting,’ said Ross Rhudy, general manager of Ammons Pittman GMAC Real Estate. ‘A lot are gambling their house will be the one to sell.’”

The Denver Post from Colorado. “Birds fly, fish swim, and even during sharp downturns in housing, builders keep building. The result: a glut of homes on the market, an urgency for homebuilders to get the homes sold, and deals for buyers.”

“DR Horton’s Raspberry Hill community in Weld County stands alone on a prairie, just east of Interstate 25. A few dozen homes have been built and sold there, and 200 more are planned in a second-phase build-out. Sales brochures at the site advertise ‘rock bottom pricing’ of $249,900 to $299,900.”

“The ‘Wilson’ model home, with 3,114 square feet and four bedrooms, previously was $402,714, according to the builder. It is now listed at $299,000.”

“Price declines are a signal to stop thinking of homes strictly as investments, said broker Jennifer Gore. ‘Someone asked me when we would know the market had truly improved. I said, ‘When you no longer see incentives offered in advertising in the paper.’”

The Northwest Herald from Illinois. “Once part of the housing boom, McHenry County is feeling the effects of the national housing bust. The county saw a ‘very large decrease’ in the number of home sales in the last quarter of 2007, according to County Assessor Donna Mayberry.”

“‘We have a lot of supply right now,’ said Jim Haisler of the McHenry County Association of Realtors, ‘and we don’t have the demand.’”

“When Neumann Homes declared bankruptcy in October, large projects were left unfinished – or not even touched – in Wonder Lake, Lakemoor and Gilberts. ‘Nothing lasts forever. The boom was not going to last forever,’ Mayberry said.”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “Metro Detroit’s dismal residential housing market — gridlocked and stagnant amid a global mortgage loan crisis, consumer sentiment at a 26-year low and a glut of unsold and foreclosed homes — has cast a pall over local builders who only a few years ago were enjoying boom times.”

“Now, half-built subdivisions dot the region, construction workers are fleeing south and companies from family-owned shops to global firms like Pulte Homes Inc. are bracing for what could be their worst year yet.”

“Said Centex spokesman Eric Bruner: ‘We are in the middle of the worst housing market in modern history.’”

“In 2007, a paltry 5,556 permits to build new homes were filed in the nine counties that make up southeastern Michigan, according to Clawson-based Housing Consultants Inc. That was nearly half the number of permits filed in 2006 and 20,994 less than in 2004, the best year this decade.”

“Stalled subdivisions abound, a boon for companies such as Pinnacle Homes of Farmington Hills, which step in to buy unfinished subdivisions from banks and attempt to build homes for much less than just a few years ago.”

“‘I knew the market well enough to know that this was an overall downturn and one that was going to be around for a while,’ said Pinnacle executive, Howard Fingeroot, standing amid the empty lots of Kirkway Estates in Lyon Township. ‘The only way to compete with the foreclosures was to get closer to their prices.’”

“In a venture with AmTrust Bank of Cleveland, Pinnacle will build 85 houses in the 100-lot development. The homes will be from 2,800 to 3,400 square feet and will list for around $330,000, Fingeroot said.”

“The 15 homes already standing, he added, sold for more than $450,000 each just a few years ago. ‘There are still plenty of people who want to buy, and now is the time,’ Fingeroot said.”

From KFOX Las Cruces in New Mexico. “With several unsold homes on the market, builders are paying the price. ‘I think they’re going to slow down and let everything catch up. Builders aren’t building as much so it will all catch up and be fine,’ said Sean Vick, builder with From the Ground Up Design.”

“He hopes to move his homes off the market quicker. ‘It’s tough we have three houses on the ground right now for sale,’ said Vick.’

“But there’s a ray of hope. The Las Cruces Home Builders Association’s spring showcase of homes debuted this weekend inviting potential buyers.”

“‘We come from California so it’s a very different kind of real estate market. The prices here you can buy three homes for what you have to pay for one out there,’ said Dorothy Overhiser a new Las Cruces resident.”

“The Overhisers said that their four-bedroom, four-bathroom California condo, overlooking the ocean, was on the market for more than six months, but selling looks more promising in Las Cruces.”

“‘I think the market is bottoming out. This market right here wasn’t really strong to begin with. It just had good steady growth that when it backed off it didn’t back off too far,’ said Charles Overhiser.”

“Builders said they welcome anything that can help the market turn. ‘It’s an opportunity to stimulate the economy. Somebody can get bargain prices on real nice homes,’ said Michael Clifford with Team Builders.”

The New Jersey Herald. “Home foreclosures are soaring in Sussex County and throughout New Jersey, according to sobering 10-year figures provided by the state Office of Banking and Insurance.”

“Foreclosures filings in Sussex County rose by 44 percent from 2006 to 2007, and increased by 46 percent statewide. Total filings had hovered around the upper 400s and mid-500s from 1997 to 2005, before vaulting to 620 in 2006 and 892 in 2008.”

“Home prices are down about 25 percent from their the market peak in about June 2005, according to Bob Brandon of Weichert Realtors in Landing.”

“He chalks it up to a plague of overbuilding and a lack of arms-length transactions, sales in which people are ready and willing to use the home. ‘Houses never leave the market,’ he said. ‘There are too many houses and not enough buyers.’”

“Also, he said, some appraisers skewed their work to the whim of the banks and provided appraisals ‘that are way out of whack.’”

“More than ever, Sussex County residents in need of work are reeling from the specter of a foreclosure on their home, said Bill Weightman, director of the state’s job center in Franklin. ‘I’ve had men and women cry in here. This is the American Dream going south, and I don’t think it’s coming back,’ he said.”

“Several years ago, ‘Michelle’ and her mother had a successful business and acres of property in Sparta, a township known for its affluence and quality of life. But it all spiraled downward last May, when Michelle was let go. The lay-off was sudden, she said.”

“Now Michelle and her mother, who asked that their real names and other specifics of their lives not be printed, are struggling to pay their $5,500-a-month mortgage payments, not to mention buy food or the gas or bus fare needed to get to job interviews.”

“‘Nobody wants to lose their home,’ she said. ‘It’s not a beautiful mansion, but this is my mom’s hard work for many years. We don’t want to end up on the street, getting that call, ‘By the way, you can start packing.’”

“People heading toward a legal battle for their home can opt for a pre-foreclosure sale to recoup some money instead of nothing. Brandon, who has been in the real estate business for 40 years, advises them to talk to a broker, get the right price on their house and get rid of it.”

“Ben Bensley, of Andover Township, said he attends the sheriff’s sales to gauge the market, but he’s not about to bid. ‘If the price is here and the market value is here,’ said Bensley, moving his hand from high to low, ‘then why buy it? I’d say 95 percent (of the properties), if not more, go back to the bank.’”

“Mike Callanan, of East Amwell, represents numerous banks’ interests as a part-time job in Sussex and the surrounding counties. He, too, acknowledged, ‘There are no bargains.’”