Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 29, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
April 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Hawkish On Inflation… Right.
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/homepage/20080429_Philadelphia_Fed_chief_is_hawkish_on_inflation.html
The Dow plunged 70 points yesterday in the last half hour after being up for most of the day. I guess the PPT must have got their charts the wrong way round.
Oh, and Deutsche Bank announced a 1Q loss on writedowns of $4bn.
Deutsche Bank continues to get pounded in northern California. They must have provided credit lines for many sub prime originators and the Bank got stuck with loans before they could off them to the Oslo Norway Municipal Reserve Fund! We see Deutsche on many REO’s around Sacramento. Along with IndyMac, WAMU, Option One and all the other usual suspects.
The financial markets python may be trying to digest one big pig full of losers, but there are a several large wild boars still wandering around in the pen. It will take years to finish off these gluttons….
The earnings statements of these banks remind me of when I was young and my friends and I used to pull our money together to see how much gas and what brand of beer we could afford for the night.
Only with the banks they look to see how much of their crap they can classify as crap without appearing insolvent. If that doesn’t add up they go out and raise a some fresh capital to soak up the really runny crap that can’t be disquised until the next quarterly report.
Me thinks we have a few very large banks with some pretty badly clogged sewer pipes, but the monkeys in the skyscraper keep on flushing at will. Gonna get pretty stinky around some of those places whenever the crap backs up and finally hits the fans.
Fat cats eating too much Splenda® can lead to liquidity problems. Waiter! A round of Depends® for all my banker friends.
Have any of these mega banks yet begun to suspect that real estate is the worst possible investment?
“…that real estate is the worst possible investment?”
They’ve realized that for now real estate is a losing bet. That’s why credit is harder to come by. It’s still not hard enough to come by, in my opinion. Any less than 10% out of pocket at the closing table represents a bad risk. Not enough skin in the game.
You point out one of the reasons the real estate market is taking so long to correct. Even after lending standards have tightened, enough knifecatchers are getting qualified to buy without enough skin in the game to prevent prices from quickly falling back to an affordable equilibrium level.
“…enough knifecatchers are getting qualified to buy without enough skin in the game to prevent prices from quickly falling back to an affordable equilibrium level.”
As long as FHA and VA continue to offer loans with 3% down and closing costs paid by the seller, we’re going to have this problems. Guidelines are pretty loose and depend on individual underwriters to make “judgement” calls. In addition banks will still do 5% down with little documentation. Until we return to the old 10% to start and 20% to avoid PMI we’re going to be screwed.
On a side note, I wanted to buy my first house with FHA. My credit score (which I had never heard of at that time) was in the high 600’s was not enough to outweigh the collection from the music club. Today, FHA will take a Bankruptcy that’s 23 months old.
RE: FHA will take a Bankruptcy that’s 23 months old.
No skin in the game for any of the fed guarantee agencies.
Crap underwriting? Who cares?
The idiots making the decisions are protected from being fired for their incompetence by civil service laws and the ultimate bagholder for the foreclosure loss is the US taxpayer.
And take it from somebody who was on a FHA/VA panel for 2 decades…These agencies previously underwrote an enormous amount of crap housing before the sub-prime vultures soared in.
I couldn’t even imagine what’s in the bail-out pipline.
So who cares?
Completely dysfunctional…get your guns and rice.
The more I read everyday, this is gonna be a total meltdown.
Even if people can still get loans for 90%+, how are they going to make the payments? HELOCs are out. Where is the cash coming from each month?
There were three foreclosure notices (the most ever) published in my local newspaper in Maine this weekend (all mobile homes, well in from the coast) and two out of the three were brought by Deutsche Bank. I can only imagine how expensive it must be to service each and every one of these small loans in far-flung, rural counties throughout the USA.
Servicing the loans is cheap — so long as the customers actually PAY on time! When they don’t pay, and the bank needs to foreclose, or worse yet hold onto the property after foreclosure, then it gets to be an expensive mess.
Lots of wishing still going on in So Fla. No where near time to buy. Public transportation is getting a lot more crowded.
Re: 95 and Cypress Creek and glass buildings - I wish the bowling alley was still there. But those buildings are hurricane-tough. Broward was hit hard by hurricane Wilma a couple years back, and most of the buildings were fine. A few blown out windows and snapped off AC units.
The trees, however, at the old IBM site there - devastated. They were kept “pretty” instead of sound and the shade coverage around the neighborhood went down, according to friends, a good 33%.
Bus service is okay from what I’m seeing in Broward and Palm Beach; Tri-rail’s double tracking is complete but between fatalities, mechanical failures, and other nonsense, the trains aren’t running reliably enough on time for most people to really give it a go unless an $80 unlimited train pass will make a significant dent in their travel expenditure.
Starting to see prices though only 10% over what the owners paid in 02…those that are selling are the ones who are facing the reality…
“Starting to see prices though only 10% over what the owners paid in 02…”
Many established communities are in 2000 and 2001 mode in Palm Beach County. Too many banks and short sales to compete with. It’s the 2002 - 2006 new communities that are the last to fall. Even so, Olympia has homes priced below pre-construction which was in late 2002.
Well, I think that we both agree, but Olympia is f**ked.. That place has absolutely no hope, it’s in the middle of nowhere, I would venture a guess that 90+% of the loans made there were low/no down and/or subprime, and there’s simply little/no demand to live all the way out there (unless you have horses). That place will see 50-60% off the peak, as will many of the other communities built on the edge of the swamp (like all of Weston, for example).
“That place has absolutely no hope, it’s in the middle of nowhere…”
With all of the 441 retail development I don’t worry about the location as much as I would have 6 years ago when this nonsense started. I do however worry about the nearly zero lot line communities that were starting to be priced in the $500’s to start. Most “villages” each have 2 or 3 models. Each street is the same and no one has any land. With 1/2 the number of houses, Olympia could have commanded $300,000 per unit.
We found a nice house on short sale available at half the $580K the FB paid. So the price is not terrible and is lower than anything else in the neighborhood. But the tax office refuses to make any comment about how they’d appraise the place. No deal.
Any Master Gardners out there; They will give advice free and specific to the area . With good xeriscape in mind.
Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
“In a garden, growth has its season…as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden.”
It’s all good… Glad that little inconvenience is over.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWlFW2F58Xng&refer=news
Fed’s Bailout Is Questioned by Ex-Staffer
By GREG IP
April 29, 2008; Page C3
WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve’s rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. will come to be seen as its “worst policy mistake in a generation,” a former top Fed staffer said.
Did AG play a role in the 1988 creation of the PWG? I believe any ranking of the “worst policy mistake in a generation” should consider the possible adverse effect of actions that might have seriously compromised CB independence.
Linked from there:
One Guy Who Has Seen It All Doesn’t Like What He Sees Now
(Peter Bernstein)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120916592206646195.html?mod=fpa_mostpop
Wow. I am left with the feeling that 89 years of life experience IS worth something after all. Very interesting and impressive summation about why this is unlikely to be a “V” downturn and more like an “L” or perhaps a wide “U”. (His terminology.)
Matt,
Thanks for the link.
It is no coincidence that this crisis has reached a head as the last of those who saw the Great Depression leave this world. Those in power now do not recall the Depression, and nobody wants to listen to the warnings of “old people,” so here we are again, watching a very similar type of stupidity be played out.
At least it gives us the ability to time the next great Bubble - it’ll be when we’re all in the home, sitting on the front porch in rocking chairs, and the current crop of “smartest people in the room” won’t listen to us or stories about the Housing Bubble or the Second Depression, etc.
When the tsunami hit in 2004, many aboriginal Onge Andaman Islanders instinctively headed for higher ground, once the sea retreated in a prelude to what was coming, and most were saved, because the wisdom of the old ones and tales of oral tradition, that were passed down through the ages…
Old wise men have been speaking their minds lately, about a financial tsunami headed our way…
Anybody paying attention?
__________________________________________________
“Anthropologists had initially expected the aboriginal population of the Andaman Islands to be badly affected by the tsunami and even feared the endangered Onge tribe could have been wiped out. Of the six native tribes only the Nicobarese, who had converted to Christianity and taken up agriculture in place of their previous hunter-gatherer lifestyle, and mainland settlers had suffered significant losses. Onge tribespeople explained that the sea and land always fought over boundaries. First the spirits became angry and shook the trees and then when they saw changes in the sea and clouds they knew “the sea would enter the jungle and mix with the land until they decided on a new boundary”. The aboriginal tribes evacuated and suffered few or no losses.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake
‘Those in power now do not recall the Depression, and nobody wants to listen to the warnings of “old people,” so here we are again, watching a very similar type of stupidity be played out.’
Oh really?
(Sorry to sidetrack the creation of the PWG as a major Fed shift thought)
“That’s what I’d call it, a triage nurse using radical procedures. But they worked. Whether they’ll be proven right in the long run, I don’t know.”
Bit of a bad analogy. You don’t treat during triage. You assess priorities on who needs immediate attention and who does not. Part of the job is deciding that someone will not be treated. Triage is necessary because you know you don’t have the resources to save everyone. If you use all your resources saving the first patient, who happens to be in critical condition, you may end up leaving others to die.
Maybe it’s not such a bad analogy.
The good news here in returned-to-winter Ohio is that I dont have to fight traffic anymore when pulling out of my development onto the main drag. Also, major gas dealers (Shell, BP) have dropped their prices to $3.24/$3.25 for regular. So much for the spring bounce. Poor independents are still at 3.59.
Wow. As bad as in CA. Condolences.
“The good news here in returned-to-winter Ohio is…”
Another rainy week in WA makes 7-months of winter f*cking weather!
Yeah, Mt Hood in Oregon got over 750″ of snow this winter, and it’s been the best ski season in a long time. It’s still snowing up there!
I love the gloomy weather. If it’s raining here, it’s snowing up there. I play in the snow…
Living in California is strictly for fare-weather friends…
$3.24/gal! Wow, send some here! Every place I’ve passed was $3.5x and upwards in the last day or so.
Are you seeing the first pullback in gasoline prices? Seems unusual given the soaring cost of oil.
RE: Are you seeing the first pullback in gasoline prices? Seems unusual given the soaring cost of oil.
Last night’s network news said US gasoline prices haven’t even begun to reflect the crudes price run-up due to working down current inventories. Crude up 88% YTD. Gaz only up 33%.
So when the two parallel on the 4th of July…well-just glad I won’t be runnin’ a Dodge 340HP Magnum Hemi Dualie haulin’ a 40′ 5th Wheel 300 miles to my favorite RV camp.
trailer @ 6mpg.
“Crude up 88% YTD. Gaz only up 33%.”
Gas prices shouldn’t move up at the same rate as crude. Crude is only part of the cost structure of gas. Taxes, wages for gas station workers, transportation of fuel, etc have raised at a lower rate (or not at all for wages probably). Gas will likely keep going up, but not at the same rate as crude.
HD - I’ll be glad too when I’m camping there in a little tent having toted all my gear in my car. Should be much more realxing this 4th without all the huge camping equipment making it feel like a suburb.
I do wonder what this will do to deer hunting in the fall. Maybe I’ll finally get a deer since most will be staying home!
RE: I do wonder what this will do to deer hunting in the fall. Maybe I’ll finally get a deer since most will be staying home!
Moman-LOL-Your comment has been voiced before by some of my friends who are hard-core whitetail hunters.
In last decade many have gone to “favorite” only to find some parked RV loaded with out of state sports who have bought all their supplies, bullets, beer and gaz in sales tax free NH on their way into Maine.
So the state gets their permit dough-while the hotels and small town merchants get shite.
The only ones making any money are the pole dancers workin’ a couple of strip clubs in Portland, that make a very convenient “rest” stop being right off I95 North.
I’ve never understood why people hunting much pack so much beer. My 2006 hunting season ended early because I was sitting at the base of a tree and dozed off…only to be awaken by the percussion of a shot fired in close vicinity - it was not my gun or my hunting buddy. We looked around and never figued out where that shot came from so we headed back to the truck, only to find a brand new SuperDuty with Orlando-area plates parked near the old’ Chevy. My girl also wasn’t the least impressed when I drove her up to see the hunt camp and low and behold the truck in front of me slammed on the brakes and out comes a rifle…the guy was going to shoot a doe deer from the cab of his truck down the road until I let him know I was behind him. Idiots!!!
I believe that hunting anymore is just an excuse to shoot guns and drink beer.
Most likely lower gas prices are due to local imbalances in inventory for the majors; miscalculated as to how much the sheeple HAVE to buy. Yeah, like $3.25 is a lower gas price. I predict you will never see $4.00 a gallon here. People have told me that if prices go higher they will be forced to rethink working for a living.
Factoring in my siphon hose and unattended realtor SUVs at open houses this Summer, I figure I can keep my average gas costs down to around $3 a gallon. Much less if I factor in my hacksaw and their catalytic converters….
Go north and cross the border into Michigan and you’ll hit $3.60 or more. $4.30 now for diesel.
My husband just called to tell me he drove by a Shell station this a.m. that was charging $4.75 for diesel and $4.17 for high test. My car uses high test and it cost me $75 to fill up this weekend. We were in the midst of one of our more-common-than-anyone-would-like-to-admit-heat waves and I had to fuel up before heading over to the nearly deserted shopping center. We stopped into Best Buys to pick up an iPod nano for my ex-husband’s birthday and when I refused the extended service, the salesgirl got all indignant on me. Then she tried to push the electric charger on me and got even more pissy when I didn’t want that either. The cashier tried to sell me the extended warranty again when I checked out. There were only two people in line in front of us and they were together. The whole mall was nearly empty. I initially thought someone had forgotten to tell us the end of the world was upon us. Then I figured it could have been the heat or the high gas prices or that everyone’s broke … or a combination. I didn’t miss the crowds.
Do those indignant, pissy store people get a commission on what you were refusing to buy?
Prolly. The nerve.
…for my ex-husband’s birthday…
Sounds like you have the same relationship I do with my ex.
Also, I read once that Best Buy makes more off of extended warranties than off the price of the item itself.
The gas prices web site shows the cheapest Michigan gas is $3.48 for regular in Grayling & $4.09 in Flint. Most expensive in $5.09 for regular & $4.78 for diesel, both on Beaver Island.
And the beat goes on……
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/AUTO01/804290382
Everyone was telling them that eventually putting all their eggs into the SUV basket would bite them in the keister. The day of reckoning has arrived and they don’t have an appealing small car portfolio. Typical American management, they couldn’t look past the current year’s profits. Sure, they are starting to offer hybrid Suburbans and pickups, but they are still too thirsty.
I expect that they will hit their European divisions for a quick fix. In some ways they have started this: Saturn sells a rebadged Opel Astra. I think that they should get their eurocar diesel technology certified for the US ASAP. Once gas hits $5-$6 people might not turn their noses up at diesels anymore.
Back in the late 1990s, I was a mechanic in a Tucson bike shop. On many a Saturday afternoon, I twiddled my thumbs as I watched the SUV parade on the avenue outside the store.
There many shiny new SUVs, and I couldn’t help thinking that the parade would end badly.
In December 2000, the bike shop went out of business, and the space where it was located is still vacant. However, the owner did manage to sell the building and retire to another state on the proceeds.
Nowadays, Tucson bike shops are bustling, and SUV sales? Well, we know all about them.
Diesel is almost a $1 more per gallon than gasoline here in Texas. I doubt people are going to be lining up to buy diesel cars anytime soon.
From what I have read that differential is an anomaly and that gas prices will catch up with diesel. And even if they don’t the $1 difference (its less out here) won’t be as significant once gas reaches $6 a gallon. When that happens a 50 mpg mid size sedan will start to sound real good.
I stopped driving my gas vehicle & switched to my old diesel truck, which gets 21-26 mpg, substantially better than my gas vehicle can get. Price of diesel doesn’t matter in this case.
Ford’s Escape hybrid gets worse gas mileage than my 2003 Honda Civic non-hybrid. Not by much, but I paid $15K new.
At one point I was pondering the Honda Civic GX, since there’s a filling statin 1/2 a mile from my house, but they don’t sell ‘em ’round here.
Slipping Demand for Pick-Ups and SUVs..GM Will Layoff 3550.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/business/29auto.html
There is also a huge slipping demand for motor homes and RVs, but interestingly they aren’t dropping prices much.
I always thought I would buy and live in one if times got tough.
I’d bet this fall or next would be a PERFECT time to pick up some HELOCer’s slightly used motorhome for a big discount.
yep, we’re losing 750 of them just west of here in Janesville, WI.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=744615
I posted this yesterday from Forbes magazine.
Worst Cities For Homeowner Debt. It attempts to break down the the mortgages, 2nd mortgages and or both HELCO and 2nd’s in 50 cities . Seeing about 5 cities with these figues in my state of Wisconsin is scary because the 2 largest banks have been taking hits on bad loans and increasing reserves.
House prices are very sticky here and have not been going down here dispite the poor emplyment, financial and economic data that LEAKS out.
IMO, these HouseDebtors CAN’T afford to sell and the Wisconsin RE and banking gang can’t afford to let the CAT out of the Bag.
http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/2008/04/17/debt-homeowner-cities-forbeslife-cx_mw_0417realestate_table.html
WOW. I had no idea that large a % would be heloc`ed. I`m in the Charlotte area and we are way up there like 26%. I feel so out of place… I paid cash for my BMW. lol
Lane
Now that we are between HELOC and a hard place, and lending institutions have turned into HELOC Nazis… (No HELOC for you!)
Where are people going to turn to, for cash of the realm?
Mainly in non-english speaking communities and exurbs. Nice neighborhoods in the city have had only minor declines. We are far from where we need to be and not close to the drops occuring in CA and FL.
On a positive note, the real estate agents use to explain the high prices because of all the CA money that was moving in because everyone wants to live here. With the crash in CA, hopefully, that will be a distant memory.
This comment should have attached to the post immediately below on Denver.
California Cash Cargo Cultists Clique
(the other 49 states)
I’m hearing stories of folks who are having their HELOCs reduced…here’s the kicker. The people who have the HELOCs don’t even need them (i.e. have a multiple of the max HELOC in the same bank), and have a ton of equity in their homes (like 50% or more). The HELOC was purely a rainy day fund–since getting the line was essentially free, why not have the line?
Banks are not just cutting HELOCs because home values are impaired, or credit is impaired, but because they need to shore up their balance sheets.
The people who have the HELOCs don’t even need them
Eaaaaasy there. I know that was the case for *some* people, but I wouldn’t suspect it applied to very many. HELOC fueled ridiculous spending and were very much needed for that. Obviously there is not much equity left in many homes that were HELOCed, otherwise walking away would not be the phenomenon that it is.
Rocky Mountain High…
Denver & environs started crashing earliest in the housing bubble, and they now have the highest rate of HELOC extraction on a percentage basis, of any municipality in any state…
Not surprising. Wages in Denver are low and have been stagnant for ages. There hasn’t been a state surplus (along with the mandated refund to taxpayers) since about 1999 IIRC. This means that state tax revenues out here have not kept pace with inflation and population growth. This is the elephant in the Colorado living room.
An anecdote: I used to work at a firm in Denver that is a subsidiary of a Boston company. There was a guy who was interested in transferring out here, that is until he saw how little he would be paid. He was utterly shocked at how much lower the pay was in Denver. I am talking about a 30+% cut in pay.
I am talking about a 30+% cut in pay.
Interesting. As a entrepreneur, I wonder why more companies don’t move operations there. (I am looking to move from DC-area, and denver/boulder is on the list.)
Probably because Chindia is even cheaper.
Don’t forget that there is now a proposal to raise “fees” via car registration to improve the bridges and this with the massive spending that the state is presently on in regards to road.
Talk about another farce here.
Tour de Farce
Don’t forget that there is now a proposal to raise “fees” via car registration to improve the bridges and this with the massive spending that the state is presently on in regards to road.
That has a snowball’s chance in hell of being approved by voters.
Is it just me, or is their logic and math off? They added column 5 and column 7 together to get column 8.
Column 5: Home equity OR second mortgage
Column 7: Home equity AND second mortgage
Since column 7 is a subset of column 5, it makes no sense to add them together.
Note there is no suggestion that column 5 was XOR. In that case, it might make sense to add #5 and #7 together.
No surprise really. With gas prices soaring, the desirability of big trucks and SUVs falls. In the last couple of decades the U.S. automaker have bet big on..well big. Which worked well for a long time, but not as much anymore. Fewer people buying lower profit-margin vehicles is likely to really hammer them over the next few years, just as it did during the gas-crisis of the 70s.
Not a bad time to go pull some 1980s cars out of the junkyard. People talk about 25 MPG today on the highway as if that’s something to brag about - we had 1985 Chevy Celebrity V6 that consistently got 30-32 MPG on the highway, and that was a good size car for 5 people.
In event of a major gas crunch, I won’t buy a new fuel efficient car, I’ll just go resurrect an old one.
A good point. Todays cars are fat and are equipped with big thirsty engines. You old Chevy would leave a 2008 VW Rabbit in the dust in the mpgs (the VW is rated at 28 mpgs on the hwy). Of course today’s Rabbit weight 3000 lbs, compared with the 70’s era Rabbits which were about 2000 lbs.
While engines are more efficient than they wer 30 years ago, most of that efficiency has been used to enable greater vehicle weight and more acceleration (via more horsepower)
Of course, they now come with airbags, anti-lock brakes, California emissions, air conditioning, crumple zones, radial tires, 3rd break light, etc. Strip all that extra crap out and I bet you’d be down to 2000 lbs again.
My Chevy had 6 cyl, radial tires, crumple zones, a/c, and cruise. It was even a station wagon, so it could carry all the crap these people need SUVs for today. Only missing ABS and airbags, which were put on later models but didn’t hurt fuel economy.
And it still got 32 MPG on the highway.
According to the gov the 4-cylinder ‘85 Celebrity got (city) 21(highway) 29 (combined) 24
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/FEG/noframes/437.shtml
You must have had a very special 6-cylinder engine. I hope you kept the car.
Thanks for the info. Fed rates are just averages……we averaged 30-32 MPG on the highway at 55 MPH. I’m sure there were times when it was less, and 32 is the highest I recall calculating. That car has long been passed on to another owner.
I believe the Celebrity milage. I took a company car-an 80’s Ford Taurus wagon on a 400 mile round trip. It wasn’t my car and I wasn’t paying for the gas, so I flogged it pretty good. It got 33 mpg. I couldn’t believe it. We also had one of those pre-Celebrity bathtub shaped chevys with a 4-banger. It also got into the thirties.
Dang, that was an ugly car. It reminds me of my father’s ‘77 Chrysler Volare.
Hell, last year I got 20 MPG in my full size 4WD Chevy pickup cruising along at 55 MPG all day with cruise on coming down from the panhandle. About p*ssed my pants when I ran the calculations. Definately not common, but not impossible to do when driving like granny.
I haven’t found the Federal fuel economy stats realistic. Some of my vehicles have gotten much better than the stats, some much worse, my driving didn’t change much from one vehicle to the next.
I know I said this before, but my 89 Civic got 43 mpg highway, and the new ones don’t get anywhere near that and I don’t understand why.
Compare the specs. I’ll bet that the new ones are bigger, heavier and have bigger and more powerful engines.
Crap, who needs it. I did just fine in the old Civic DX and i did a lot of road trips between Mt and LA, going 70-75 mph all the way. One time I measured at each fillup and it was always 43 mpg. They just had to screw up a good thing…
I can attest to that. My current *clunker* is a 1995 Honda Civic LX stickshift (138K and still going strong) and I get 37-38mpg if I am watchful of how I drive. By watchful I mean drive between 50-60 mph and don’t accelerate too fast. (Keep the engine RPM between 2000-3000). If I go crazy and drive the “normal” way, I get somewhere around 30-32mpg.
Thank god.. I hate SUVs, for almost everyone who owns one they are just a gas guzzling status symbol to carry around their little brat kids. My least favorite has to be the Lexus RX crapwagon; basically a station wagon lifted up 18″ (with about 1/2 the gas mileage). There’s no car on the road that screams “REwhore” more then that vehicle to me.
I was just thinking that same thing this morning as I deliberately cut one off on the road. I hate that vehicle and everything it stands for.
LOL. I expected to get totally flamed for that one. Glad I’m not the only one that sees red when that car gets in front of me. Unfortunately, living where I do, that darn thing is about every 5th car.
I someone had a list of cars that were repoed per month and per model. I have a feeling there are going to be LOTS of those things repoed in the next few years. Not only do they scream REwhore, they also scream “aspirational shopper”, which is just a fancy word for “I can’t afford this car”.
I dated a girl who had one of them once. You would have died laughing if you met her; totally fit the stereotype (may have actually defined the stereotype!).
Fink: the movie American Beauty, the real estate girl, what did she drive?
I don’t date those kind of women - I only sportf*$k them.
It’s a Mercedes. It was clearly miscast in that role.
Count me as three. I thought I was the only one who enjoyed cutting off SUVs on the highway.
Dangerous to cut people off around here.
Watching one direction, you never know when some pair of NASCAR truck wanna bes come flying around both sides of you or the other car each vying to be the closest to your bumper as they pass by. As a guy who has studied ground vehicle dynamics, I don’t appreciate empty pickup trucks making quick lane changes with that much closure rate…
“Dangerous to cut people off around here.”
No joke. I always tell my husband that, when we are in Texas, he shouldn’t drive like he drives in Boston. He should assume that the person he just cut off is armed.
Right on Mike. Add to it the rollerskate mimicking Vulva’s and other assorted 8 wheel drive EuroTrash.
I don’t think that means what you think it means (”vulva”).
We have a Toyota Yaris and it’s great and really fun to drive. I’ve seen a lot of these on the road recently.
But we also have a Honda CRV, technically a SUV, though smaller. I do get paranoid that people judge me for driving an SUV.
We carpool to school with 2 other families, plus have 2 dogs (one is a Rottweiler), and I surf…so when we go anywhere as a whole family that car is packed to the brim, esp. when we go camping.
BUT, when I was a kid my parents drove VW convertible Bugs. We would drive up to Vermont from NYC with 3 kids, 2 adults, all our skis on the ski rack that mounted over the engine.
I don’t know how they did that, honestly.
Maybe we’ll be living like that soon - the 70’s all over again??
When I was a senior on high school, my sister had a VW Bug (which I later wrecked for her) - we took off for the Grand Canyon one hot July afternoon (the heater was stuck on, to boot) - myself, my sis, my mom, and three younger family members. The kids took turns riding in the wayback. We had to stop at every town for ice to cool ourselves off. We rented a cheap motel in Kayenta, AZ, and snuck the kids in, they slept on the floor, along with myself. We were on a very tight budget, but I will admit to feeling a bit guilty for the deception (I paid, so it was my deal). We were going to camp, but couldn’t fit the gear in with all the humans already packed in.
So…do people with big SUVs and topracks and lots of cash have fond memories like that?
Man, I used to LOVE riding in the wayback* of my parents old bug.
*I haven’t heard anyone use that term in a long time.
oh yeah, we fought about who got to sit in the “way back”. Funny that everyone called it that - I thought it was just my family.
Now we don’t dare even think about driving anywhere without a pile of car seats.
Funny vw bug story: all of us crammed in the back seat and my very large grandma, and the back seat caught on fire! It was a mystery to me at the time; we put the fire out with snow.
Now I know it was because all that weight in the back seat caused the seat (which was made with straw!) to short out the battery, which was under the back seat.
I drive a CRV as well. As a car-based SUV it gets better gas mileage that most mid sized cars. I also have a dog and need the extra space from time to time.
If people have a problem with it they can stick it.
My folks had an old Falcon station wagon with a “way back” seat that my older sister and I shared, (we were the “little girls”) while the “big girls” shared the back seat. We also had an old camper on a pick-up that we’d take to camp up in Lassen, Yosemite and the like. I still remember the smell of the bubbling mud pots and how worried I was about falling in. I’m pretty sure my sisters threatened to push me in. Good times.
“Lexus RX crapwagon”
ok I saw one of these in my cow-town downtown at the gas station two weeks ago.
on the doors was a Crest that declared “University of Nouveau Riche” and on the back window something like “become independently wealthy with Real Estate now”
I asked the guy “so, how’s the working out for you?”
he just gave me a dirty look & I laughed.
mina
Lexus RX does not have that bad gas mileage, actually it’s pretty decent. You also can’t beat the Lexus quality. Just because some realtors drive it doesn’t say much - realtors also drive BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi - does that make the cars bad.
And Lexus RX 400h gets around 30 mpg in the city - it is comparable to a compact car.
RE: GM Will Layoff 3550.
Tip of the iceburg.
Exactly what car/motor vehicle does GM produce today that has any sort of relevancy?
Divisions up the wazoo-and not one stand-out. It defies credulity.
WTF can’t the US auto industry produce products people will buy? And this is from someone who’s bought domestics all my life.
See the news about Kevorkian buying a big stake in Ford? Personally, I thought the company was toast…but maybe GM is the real dinosaur.
“Exactly what car/motor vehicle does GM produce today that has any sort of relevancy?”
I don’t drive a GM vehicle, but to compare with what else is out there, here are cars that are relevant in my opinion:
1) New Chevy Malibu (dealers were having a hard time stocking them…still few incentives or markdowns).
2) New Cadi CTS
3) Chevy Impala…not a huge seller but fuel efficient in a class of vehicles that isn’t traditionally.
4) Saturn Aura marks a new direction for the company.
Now let’s look at all of the affordable hybrids and let’s not forget the buzz around the Chevy Volt.
GM will be just fine.
GM’s saving grace may be that it can borrow cars and technology from its european divisions. IIRC the Malibu/Aura have a lot Euro technology in them. Also, the new Astra and VUE models are rebadged Opels.
GM has a fantastic lineup and those with half a brain know not to get ripped off by supposed “premium” labels will buy GM. Take a look at the euro garbage out there….. 3, 4, 5x the price of comparable, reliable transportation.
“GM has a fantastic lineup…”
I wouldn’t go that far, but I would say that their lineup is much improved over that of just 7 years ago.
For quality, I believe American cars in general are beat up on in the automotive press. I had a Ford Escort with 158,000 that required a new timing chain and new clutch in the entire time I had it. Nothing but tires, brakes and oil changes. My Dad had an Oldsmobile in the late 90’s that he ran until it hit 212,000 miles. Sold it for $1,000 two years ago and it’s still on the road. The Europeans and Japanese aren’t putting anything out there that will run longer with fewer problems.
The Europeans and Japanese aren’t putting anything out there that will run longer with fewer problems.
I dunno about that.
As someone who owned a Chevy in the ’80s, but drove Hondas for many years, I’d say that some makes really are more durable than others. My ex-wife and I had three Hondas between us that had 250K+ miles on them before we sold them — and each one still had life in it, even if the Midwestern winters had taken a toll on the body and undercarriage. My last Honda had 331,000 miles on it when I sold it. (I like to imagine it’s a pizza delivery vehicle now.)
When I hear someone say something like, “My car has a lot of miles on it — 150,000,” I just laugh.
The transmission computer on my 89 Maxima had to be replaced at 60K miles. Very expensive.
When I hear someone say something like, “My car has a lot of miles on it — 150,000,” I just laugh.
I know more than a few Honda owners whose cars literally fell apart around 150K miles.
Ford is working hard to try to comeback. They are updating the electronics offerings pretty heavily, and I think they are dropping the costs. We will see if it works.
Saw a Ford commercial over the weekend where they stated that Ford quality was “equal to Toyota”. Say what??
How far we’ve fallen. Trying to compare your Big 3 car company to a Japanese one? We’re not in Kansas anymore.
My ‘04 Silverado has gone for over 40k miles with nothing other than oil changes every 7000 miles or so, though the passenger windshield wiper looks like it needs a change. Americans can make reliable cars if they set their mind to it.
The Corvette.
End of list.
The Corvette is competitive with the best supercars in the world, and costs about 1/4 as much. It’s the best deal in high end sports cars out there, it performs and is a great looking car. However, sports cars are “out” and SUVs are “in”, therefore I agree with your theory, GM’s not looking too good to me.
Vette is the original and only real 4wheeler that can be considered a true “sports car”. The other ones are cheap, cheesy, crude and grossly overpriced imitations.
1970 called, they want your car back.
Detroit’s whole business model is built on building pickups and SUVs and discounting them until people will buy. Their car products have long been an afterthought - and while GM is steadily increasing the quality of their cars, the depreciation killing the owners leaves a bad taste as another Grand Am is traded for a Nissan Altima.
Ford on the other hand has sub-par SUV products and it coming on strong with the cars. We shall see how they hold up long term - Ford has not done well in this regard in the past.
Kerorkian also tried to buy Chrysler a few times….and look where they are. C will be Ch 13 at $5/gallon gas as their Jeep lineup takes the final plunge (as well it should - the quality and capability has gone straight down a cliff - trail rated my ass!!! More like suburban mall parking lot rated)
the depreciation killing the owners leaves a bad taste as another Grand Am is traded for a Nissan Altima.
I used to be a big Nissan fan until I noticed a steady decline in Nissan’s quality. Their 3.5 liter engine is still superb however.
used to be a big Nissan fan until I noticed a steady decline in Nissan’s quality. Their 3.5 liter engine is still superb however.
You aren’t kidding… 307hp and 267t on my Infiniti G35x. The 35VQ engine is one of the best ever. Excellent power, reliable, inexpensive to maintain (100K tuneup interval and a timing chain that never has to be replaced)…
Now if Nissan could only make it a bit more fuel efficient… averaging 22mpg hwy and 18mpg city, 19.5 combined. Of course, I should also work on my lead foot.
Detroit had the bigger-size truck/SUV market locked up, against Japanese competition for quite a long time(trade agreement), and they milked it for all it was worth…
The profit on a $45k Suburban was around $20k.
Most amazing was their ability to re-make Cadillac into a hep urban SUV brand, after it’s long realm as the Car of Morty, a 60′ish year old guy that liked power-everything, in his car.
I like the Ford Escape I have, of course it’s not really a ford it’s a Mazda Tribute with a ford shell on it :).
Actually, the reverse is closer to the truth….the Tribute is a re-badged Escape, to give the Mazda dealers an SUV to sell.
“Ford has not done well in this regard in the past.”
Really? Weren’t the Taurus and Escort the best selling cars for a decade before the SUV craze?
Ford had the number one selling half ton too. Personally I’m not sure why but I know they did for alot of years.
Indeed: the Taurus defined an era. The Escort was okay, though the later Focus was a pretty good car… the new European version is nice, but I don’t know why they dropped some of the trim-lines. Oh, well…
An end to the SUV mania would be nice: I hate those things - bloated status symbols one and all, and they are a menance with blindspots all over. They also barely fit into parking spaces and thus get in the way since you can’t see around them. UGH!
“Really? Weren’t the Taurus and Escort the best selling cars for a decade before the SUV craze? ”
Absolutely, and ask anyone who owned a first gen and second gen Taurus how many transmissions they dropped in the car. Or the early mid-90s owners how many times they had head gaskets replaced on the 3.8 V6. Heck, even ask a first/second gen Explorer owner what happened to their resale when the tires started blowing out and they became the ‘exploder’.
Can’t really dog the Escort - they weren’t bad cars.
My point was that Ford generally makes nice looking cars that don’t hold up well long term. We’ll see if they changed that this time around.
I put 109,000 miles on a new ‘87 Mercury Sable wagon and 134,000 miles on a new ‘90 Ford Taurus wagon, both with 3.8 L V6’s. No trouble with engine or tranny on either one. Strangely, the cabin heating fan burned out at 82,000 miles in both of them, I changed these out myself & saved $320 in labor by doing so.
Moman, DCX destroyed the Jeep badge.
Agreed. I had the (dis)pleasure of renting a 2008 Jeep Grand Cherokee a couple weeks ago. It was a total jalopy. It was not comfortable and the roof was right above my head. I cannot imagine why anyone would purchase one of those - especially when a ordinary passenger car has equal utility and less cost.
Also remember the Jeep Grand Wagoneers - the real trucks with solid front axle where you could hit a cement wall and keep going. Gosh it’s sad what happened to Jeep, but chasing the SUV yuppies really did them in as a brand. I suspect they will be history in less than 10 years.
I used to own a 93(?) jeep grand cherokee, it was one of the first of the new versions out (bought it from my cousin who had to leave the country). That thing used to scare the bejeezus out of me. Every once in a while at about 40 mph and up, if I ran over a slight bump in the road just so, one of my rear wheels would start to rapidly wobble and make the entire car shake violently. Even after a couple trips to the dealer, they couldn’t figure out what was wrong. I followed my father driving it once and I’m surprised the entire wheel didn’t just fall off. I saw the same thing happen once on a Ford truck and after that decided not to buy domestics again. At least, not until they get their act together.
Ah, but the old Willys were the cat’s meow, would climb anything…my cousin still uses a 1947 to irrigate with on his ranch.
Anecotal comment. I have written ad nauseum about why the lower sized house rentals in the IE were not coming down. I have been frustrated and zapped on my rent, due to not renewing my lease.
Good news, finally. I have two owners, repeat, owners, pretty much offering me what I want. Fridge, OK, washer, dryer, furniture. Lawn mower et, al. (I actually have own objects.)
You have cats? Okey dokey. Your friends want to smoke in the house. Alrighty. No extra deposits etc. Even two months ago this was beyond my reality. I like it now.
I watch that stuff closely. When I started to see ‘pets OK’ on brand new houses for rent, the local market headed downhill fast. We have 10 sheriff sales in the next 2 days.
Great observation. But these are genuine owners, not new houses. I have been fighting this battle for rents etc, for 1 1/2 years. Thanks to the HBB for getting me here. And thanks for helping me to stand tall the last couple of months.
After 9/11, the rental market for new towers around midtown and downtown in Battery Park City froze for a few months, as people considered moving out of the city for safety. Besides the one month free rent, “pet friendly” was heavily advertised. Both perks disappeared by December, 2001.
Rents in San Francisco seem to just keep going up and up. Can’t get a 2 br in any decent neighborhood for under 2100. Sheesh.
Ah, but even if they are “owners” did they go HELOC crazy with these properties?
Nobody is safe.
Just watch your address for foreclosure notices :).
Seriiosly. Not joking. There are so many here, the neighborhoods are changing. And safety is an issue. Saying more would be redudantant.
Check the title or at the very least taxes on those rentals. You don’t want to be a flipper’s victim! My landlady just raised our rent $50. She tried to raise it higher based on the “comps” in the area, but my husband and I were on her like strippers on a pole. I check Craigslist daily and I see the same overpriced houses on there day after day until they eventually wake up and drop the price. There’s a 3 bd house around the corner that’s been for rent for over a month, done all kinds of work to it but they want too much! Figure it out people!
is it different here? foreclosures soaring worst to come
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04292008/news/regionalnews/metro_foreclose__rate_soars_34__108557.htm
Wall Street’s now hoarding grain too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDZej7GJjpjM&refer=home
that’s really infuriating.
Right — I thought the Fed’s new lending facilities were supposed to funnel money into the tight credit markets, not into the grain market!
Now you are catching on.
LOL!
Or, the natural gas market.
I’ve said it here before, commodity bubbles are going to be intensely uglier than other types of bubbles. People that can’t afford to buy a house can rent or roomate, people that can’t afford to drive a car take the bus, walk, or drive, people that can’t afford to buy a computer can use the one downtown, but people that can’t afford to buy rice and corn starve to death.
I blame the liberals and their pushing of a poor energy policy which trades food for gas, and the bumbling idiot that signed it.
sorry, meant to say they can use a computer at the downtown library.
The “liberals” pushing biofuels are actually Republicans and Democrats from the Midwest, pushing for farm subsidies in the interest of “National Security”. Bush agreed to sign it into law.
The Republican minority that opposed the bill did the right thing for the wrong reasons, on the grounds that it would “force conservation of fossil fuels”, and be too costly to industry.
It has been too costly for industry, or have you not seen the truckers in Washington this week. Nobody gives a rat about forcing conservation of anything. High prices should be enough pressure to conserve hence the grind to a halt in SUV sales lately.
Say what?
Truckers in the USA and SUV’s have the same wants and needs. ?
It has been too costly for industry…
The truckers in DC were protesting biofuels or fossil fuel prices? Your post is unclear on this point.
The Republican minority likes the idea of fossil fuel conservation, but in practice opposes fuel conservation because retooling technology to conserve fuel would mean increased capital investment in newer and cleaner technology. Like the typical American consumer, they want to be able to waste as much as they want while being subsidized by Wall St. and foreign investment.
Farm subsidies are non-partisian.
I grew up on North Dak. We used to say that the bigger a farmers subsidy check was, the more committed a Republican he would be.
commie farmers w no shame
death by ethanol
someone called you an eco-ostrich. Where’s he now?
Part of Bush’s plan to wean the country off oil includes big investments in ethanol.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/05/news/bush_ethanol/?postversion=2008030513
The energy bill passed by Congress and signed by Bush in December calls for refiners to replace 36 billion gallons of gasoline with ethanol by 2020, up from about 7 billion gallons today. About half of that will come from ethanol made with corn.
“That’s good if you’re a corn farmer, and it’s good if you’re concerned with national security,” Bush said.
Bush acknowledged some of the problems with ethanol, particularly its role in pushing up the price of corn. The price of corn has doubled since 2006 which has pushed up the price of chicken, beef and poultry - livestock fed with corn.
Also, crops like wheat and soybeans are becoming more expensive as farmers devote more acreage to grow corn as they rush to satisfy the demand for ethanol.
“I’m beginning to hear complaints from cattleman about the price of corn,” he said. “We’re going to do something about it.”
I posted this yesterday, but it fits here, too. The ethanol issue involves more than just those pesky “liberals.”
“Also, crops like wheat and soybeans are becoming more expensive as farmers devote more acreage to grow corn as they rush to satisfy the demand for ethanol.”
True, but farmers themselves see wheat as a somewhat risky crop. There are not a lot of disease-resistant varieties, and with ugg99 decimating crops in central Asia, (esp. Iran), and drought in Australia, there is a relative shortage anyways.
The US remains one of the only countries that allows other countries to buy wheat freely here, and they have been buying. Soybeans and corn pay more, with less risk…farmers are just following the risk/reward model, as would any business person.
We steadfast refused to allow the Chinese to buy an oil company, but we’re cool with them buying up our food…
Recipe for disaster~
Bush talked more about ethanol during his news conference on the economy this morning. If you missed it, check out this exchange:
“QUESTION: The World Bank says about 85 percent of the increase in corn price since 2002 is due to biofuel — increased demand for biofuels. And your secretary of state said that — indicated yesterday that she thought that that might be part of the problem.
Do you agree with that? And what can the United States do — what more can the United States do to help make food more affordable around the world?
BUSH: Actually, I have a little different take.
I thought it was 85 percent of the world’s food prices are caused by weather, increased demand and energy prices — just the cost of growing product — and that 15 percent has been caused by, you know, ethanol — the arrival of ethanol.
By the way, the high price of gasoline is going to spur more investment in ethanol as an alternative to gasoline. And the truth of the matter is, it’s in our national interest that we — our farmers, grow energy, as opposed to us purchasing energy from parts of the world that are unstable or may not like us.”
Full transcript:
http://tinyurl.com/5bl7qa
There is no commodities bubble. We are coming out of a period of record lows and you might as well get used to paying more.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080428/bs_ft/fto042820081131221168
Yes, it’s going to be truely terrible next year as we deal with the ugly crop surplus all this money going into commodities causes, as farmers plant out every field they can find, inspired by the extra money they can now make growing corn.
Or, how did you think it was supposed to work?
Free markets, love them or hate them, but at least try to understand them.
Liberals do not believe in converting food to fuel.
Industrial farming lobby combined with overrepresentation of farm states in congress (especially the Senate) have combined to permit the ethanol subsidies to go through.
Let the scapegoating begin; blame the speculators. Of course farmers don’t have to sell grain forward, they can sell for cash, but somehow they feel victimized by high prices for their product. So the Fed destroyed the currency and forced everyone to speculate instead of saving, we should still blame the speculators. So the price of fuel is through the roof and has to be passed on, we still don’t want to pay the higher prices. When you read a hit piece don’t be a sheep.
Well, gee, using that convoluted logic, you should have immense sympathy and support for house flippers, who also screwed around wth a basic need for their own profit.
Go back to bed.
I don’t have anything against house flippers or neo-con stock scalpers as long as they lose with their own money and I don’t bail them out. Now go scalp a tech stock for a quarter.
You will bail these guys out when they bust.
“Let the scapegoating begin;”
Our economy for the past 15 years has been based on a series of bubbles. The stock bubble gave way to the real estate bubble which is now the commodity bubble. Until greed doesn’t rule this country we’ll continue down this path.
To the peak oil people, remember the late 70’s and early 80’s? Oil production was down, producing countries were refusing to pump more oil, easy to drill oil was gone. Does any of this sound familiar? Who would like to chime in on what happened to oil prices shortly after?
But oil and gold always go up. You guys should know this. Look at today….. Gold is up a negative $15 and oil is up an negative 2.50.
You guys must hate america.
Prices fluctuate. Care to comment on production since the 70s? In the end production determines price.
“Care to comment on production since the 70s?”
Crude production is up since the 70’s. If peak oil hit then, it would be down…WAY down. Refineries haven’t been built since then to refine the crude but that’s not due to the cost of oil. It’s due to the regulation!
Don’t let Rush Limbaugh fool you. The U.S. has massive over-capacity in refineries. Most are just mothballed because it is too expensive to keep them on-line when they are not running at capacity. The feds use to require over-capacity to improve price stability. That went out in the early 80’s as a reaction to high fuel prices.
Local refinery in SE Utah is coming out of many year’s worth of mothballs, they’re updating everything as we speak.
All booms go bust, but I don’t recall 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians demanding more fossil fuels in that 70s oil scenario.
“I don’t recall 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians demanding more fossil fuels in that 70s oil scenario.”
We’ll see what happens when the US economy takes its toll on those countries. Then you likely won’t have 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians demanding more fossil fuels.
Oh, I didn’t realize the commodity bubble was different(tm)
“Oh, I didn’t realize the commodity bubble was different(tm)”
And we have a winner! Any time someone tells me that we’ve got shortages and outside influences that will lead to higher prices forever I have to be skeptical.
they aren’t making any more corn, you know
Corn-fed fuel
The rules and regulations by which some modern markets are organized seem to be sub-optimal.
Who would have ever thought that it would not be lack of production capacity, but rather market speculation and possible manipulation, that caused starvation?
I know in Somalia and Darfur, food was and is used as a weapon by the warlords, causing untold suffering and death.
But now, it’s all sort of bizarre market frankenstein instruments that are resulting in the same end. Collateral damage from the markets.
A college classmate was in Somalia during Operation Restore Hope. He witnessed the food diversions by the warlords. He also attended a banquet at which a Somali government official feasted, while just a few hundred yards away, people were dropping dead from starvation.
Sounds like that government official is qualified to run a hedge fund, investment bank, etc. He has the “right” attitude - all for me and none for you!
Foreclosure Filings Double in First Quarter…1 out of 194 Households
April 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the first quarter as payments rose for subprime adjustable mortgages and falling home prices left property owners unable to sell or refinance without losing money.
Almost 650,000 properties were in some stage of foreclosure during the quarter, or 1 in every 194 U.S. households, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure data, said today in a statement. The number was 112 percent above a year ago. Nevada, California and Arizona had the highest rates.”
Considering the already huge, and by all acounts still growing, lag time that it takes lenders to even begin to start taking action - this number is all the more profound. What are we seeing here - the 2Q 07, or 3Q 07 waves? Or even some 1Q 07 leftovers?
Looks like things are on track for a bunch of 4Q 07 and 1Q 08 defaults to hit the system right around the second half of 2008. So much for the rebate checks.
That’s a good point, higher gas and food prices aren’t even priced into the foreclosure rate yet. Those along with more interest resets, plummeting housing prices, helocs shutdown, etc, WHAMMO, to the moon alice. I’m getting chills.
Homebuilders Turning Into Small Caps…Lost 67% of Value
April 29 (Bloomberg) — The worst housing slump in 70 years erased 67 percent from the market value of homebuilders in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, turning the companies into small-cap stocks.
Centex Corp., the nation’s biggest builder by sales, is valued at $2.62 billion, a quarter the size of the largest company in the Russell 2000 Index. Home developers in the S&P 500 have a total market value of $16 billion, down from $49.2 billion at their peak in January 2006 and less than Kroger Co., the biggest U.S. grocery chain.
“They went through the laundry and got shrunk,” said Stephen Lieber, who oversees $11 billion as co-chief executive officer of Alpine Woods Investments in Purchase, New York. “It’s gone beyond an inoperable business situation and turned into an economic crisis.”
“They went through the laundry and got shrunk,”. A billionaire uses this metaphor??
I like my new “shrunk” options for renting. Perhaps my economic blessing, not, boom.
And unlike some, they DON’T look cute in their newly cropped tops.
If I recall from watching the financials yesterday, most of the big builders have been climbing off their lows for some time now.
Can you cite the evidence? I only check sporadically, but it appears many builders’ share prices have reached a permanently-low plateau.
Oil Price Rise Fails to Open Tap
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/business/worldbusiness/29oil.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Some regions are simply running out of reserves. Norway’s production has slumped by 25 percent since its peak in 2001, and in Britain, output has dropped 43 percent in eight years. Production from the giant Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska has dropped by 65 percent from its peak two decades ago.
“It’s a crunch,” said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an energy consulting firm in Washington. “The world is not running out of oil, but rather it’s running out of oil production capacity.”
But the International Energy Agency estimates that current investments will be insufficient to replace declining oil production. The energy agency said it would take $5.4 trillion by 2030 to raise global output. Otherwise, it warned that a crisis before 2015 involving “an abrupt run-up in prices” could not be ruled out.
And that doesn’t include short term spikes from civil unrest, pirating, a US destabilized Iran, and Mother Nature. Just the mention of a hurricane this year will push oil to $130 gas to $4.
Where’s the demand destruction?
“Oil is close to $120/barrel, “peak oil” is everywhere you look, so where’s the demand destruction? The latest EIA figures actually show a 0.57% increase in US gasoline demand year on year over the last week. The week prior also showed an increase in gasoline demand, but the 4-week average still shows a 0.5% decrease because of lower demand in 2008 for the weeks ending 4/4/08 and 3/21/08. Regardless of which statistic one chooses, this is hardly a convincing case for demand destruction.”
There is no demand destruction. Demand is global and rising, the USA does not set oil demand any longer. Oil is still cheap and is going much higher.
Millions of Tata Nanos and other new cars in Chindia will make sure that prices stay nice and expensive.
Gold is still cheap and going much higher, and so is food. Commodities prices always go up.
“Commodities prices always go up.”
I would amend this to be “commodities prices eventually go up”. Gold was >$750 in the late 70’s. It only took ~30 years to hit that level again.
Might as well be saying “real estate always goes up”.
The demand destruction won’t show up in oil prices. It will show up in demand for other products. People will be forced to replace dinner out, movies, big screen TV’s etc… for gas to get to work.
Its already happening.
Just show the graph of world annual oil production over the last 15 years, it has plateaued. Nations other than the USA are willing & able to buy a bigger share of world oil production than ever before.
Junk Bonds, Mortgages and Milken
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/business/29sorkin.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Poor, misunderstood, heroic Michael Milken:
“That’s exactly what Mr. Milken said worries him most: that excessive regulation will send the economy into an even deeper funk. The biggest financial companies have every motivation to push for more regulation to quash competition, the way they did of him in 1990, he said. “ - From the article.
No, more regulation is needed. Here’s an example to illustrate why:
I was talking to recent immigrant who was touting a pyramid scheme. She had no idea it was illegal or problematic. She was sold on the product, and the concept seemed great and profitable.
HOWEVER - people smarter and more experienced than her know how these things always work out - in collapse, with the people at the top taking the money and the people at the bottom holding the bag. I sent her a Link from a speech by the General Counsel to the FTC to show her it was illegal. I told her that I hope she doesn’t lose too much money.
Milken is a very sharp guy. So were the other people who were at the top of “structured finance” food chain. But the structure wound up just like a pyramid scheme. Lots of bagholders at the bottom, with these masters of the universe (con artists?) at the top walking away with hundreds of millions or billions in profits.
We could legalize pyramid schemes - after all, it does make money for some. We could leave financial markets relatively unregulated - after all it does make money for some.
But it winds up costing a lot of people a lot of money, and a case can be made that the net result for society is quite destructive. We shouldn’t have a society that just winds up shovelling tax dollars to players who know how to game the system and their willing bagholders. This is not a sustainable path to prosperity for the population. Frankly, it sounds more like the economic policy of African dictatorships.
WOW its true the usa sneezes and the rest of the world catches the flu…… could this be the start of another great world depression……….look at every country….. look at the kiwi and see it cant fly:)
An analyst downgraded shares of CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. ahead of the commercial real estate firm’s first-quarter report on Tuesday, saying its stock price is too expensive, given a sagging commerical real estate market.
Citi Investment Research analyst Patrick M. Burton downgraded the stock to “Hold” from “Buy” on a run-up in price and a challenging commercial real estate market.
Shares have risen about 54 percent since bottoming at a 52-week low of $15.23 in January, Burton said.
Good credit can’t protect borrowers from bad loans
More and more home owners with high credit scores are falling behind on their mortgage payments. Here’s why.
Where’s why?
http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2007/06/13/news/latest_news/7c3944108b8586ee862572f90065c2de.txt
$8B green refinery would employ 1,800 in S.D.
ELK POINT, S.D. - A Texas-based energy firm planning to build the first U.S. oil refinery in more than 30 years said today that Union County is a finalist for the $8 billion project.
The refinery, which Hyperion Resources Inc. described as a “green energy technology center,” would create as many 10,000 construction jobs and employ 1,800 after its completion in four years.
Whacked by yet another $20 bn writedown announcement…
State budget ‘$20 billion out of whack’
Schwarzenegger’s latest estimate covers two years
By Ed Mendel
U-T SACRAMENTO BUREAU
April 29, 2008
Dark Vader really should have stayed in the movies, as suspension of disbelief always seemed to work better, there.
“Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said yesterday that the state budget is “$20 billion out of whack,” a startling figure that doubles some previous estimates.”
““It’s important to note that he is only speaking rhetorically,” said Aaron McLear, the governor’s press secretary.”
Not to worry, the temps are touching 100 and the Zonies will be coming soon.
Well, this Zonie and family will be staying local this summer, as in the backyard pool, where no great white sharks have been spotted or bitten people in half.
And we’re not the only ones. There is a different attitude surfacing,which more or less boils down to “those that absolutely need to buy gas on the freeways can have it”.
MT,
A week before that attack our 6th grade class went to Camp Surf at Imperial Beach, about 30 miles south of the attack.
I suspect you’re right about many people staying home, but we love CA, and a stupid shark is only going to keep us closer to the beach.
I live 2 miles from the beach but I won’t swim in it. And I’ve never been too worried about sharks. Being eaten by a shark is probably not very likely. But getting a staph infection is. The sewage-polluted ocean water gets in all your little orifices and wreaks havoc on your eyes, ears and throat! Some of the staph is antibiotic resistant, too. As far as I am concerned, the sharks can have it.
Land $hark!
“Legalize it and don’t criticize it”
Peter Tosh
Will the Fed stick to its “inflation is contained” mantra in this week’s meeting announcement?
Gas prices set record, with no relief in sight
Non-OPEC producers aren’t helping curb cost
By Jad Mouawad
NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
April 29, 2008
As oil prices soared to record levels in recent years, basic economics suggested that consumption would fall and supplies would rise as producers drilled for more oil.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/industrials/article3830383.ece
OPEC CHIEF $200/barrel could happen
link to article
got coal?
NEW YORK - Consumers struggling with high gas prices, rising food costs and falling home values have something new to worry about: Sharply rising electricity rates due to a surge in coal prices over the past year.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-electricity-rates,0,2891983.story
The Anthracite and the Gashopper?
(with apologies to Aesop)
(spraying Windex on the monitor)
inflationary shock:
FRANKFURT: Europe is facing a “very strong inflationary shock” as a result of rising energy and food costs, the top European Union official for economic affairs said Monday as the price of oil neared $120 a barrel.
Joaquín Almunia, the EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said that higher inflation was emerging as “a big punishment to the weakest sectors of society,” because it eats away at the purchasing power of people who have seen their incomes stagnate in recent years.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/28/business/euecon.php
It also punishes business that can no longer sell to the ‘weakest’ segments. As a result, businesses fire staff and slow or reverse expansion plans.
If they only removed food and fuel fromteh calculation, they could ignore this inflationary pressure a while longer…
–
Since the credit crisis began…
Case-Shiller Index Annual Rate Change For the Past 6 Months:
_______AREA 6-Month Annual Rate
Las Vegas -33.2%
Phoenix - AZ -31.6%
Los Angeles -30.7%
San Francisco -29.7%
San Diego -29.5%
Miami -26.6%
Detroit - MI -23.5%
Tampa - FL -21.5%
Minneapolis - MN -21.5%
Composite-10 -21.1%
Composite-20 -20.5%
Washington -19.1%
Cleveland - OH -18.5%
Denver -16.7%
Atlanta - GA -14.9%
Chicago -14.4%
Dallas - TX -13.1%
Seattle - WA -12.4%
Boston -11.9%
Portland - OR -10.2%
New York -8.2%
Charlotte - NC -6.7%
The top 5 states are the usual suspects. The whole of CA (not all zip codes and cities, but broad metro areas) is sinking at 30% annual rate, which translates to 75% of the GDP.
Jas
Countrywide posts 1st-qtr loss of $893 million as it takes $1.5 billion loan-loss provision
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/earns_countrywide.html
S&P says home prices fall by 12.7 percent in February
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/home_prices.html
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities also showed Tuesday that home values in 10 cities plunged by double digits led by Las Vegas and Miami. Only Charlotte, N.C., posted a positive return year-over-year.
Even Charlotte’s return was barely positive - what, 1.7%? Not enough to dissuade renting.
Countrywide posts $893 million first-quarter loss
By Riley McDermid, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:53 a.m. EDT April 29, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. continued to hemorrhage money in a toughening housing climate, reporting Tuesday that it lost $893 million in the first quarter compared to a profit of $434 million during the same period last year.
I’m stunned!
Absolutely nobody could have seen this coming.
(LOL)
Countrywide Canned
That $893M loss (and associated tax break) will offset BOA’s credit card bonanza nicely.
It’s a good thing that BoA keeps issuing those periodic statements reminding everyone how great a pick up CFC was.
I was expecting a large profit, I’m still going through the quarterly report.
Being wrong about their earnings bothers me.
Hoz, did you put money in a bank stock?
Yes, I bought CFC - “Curse you Red Ink Baron”
Orange you just a little upset about CFC?
“The most costly of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind.”
H.L. Mencken
Yes, I am mildly upset about CFC - I should have bought more Turkey Bonds. A lot less risky way to make 18%.
Why were you expecting a large profit??
FHA related. He’ll figure it out.
Ratings Extortion? Maybe. And Yet More Fraud
Oh boy.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
“Indictments”
I will believe it when I see it.
Hard-hitting post.
Crazy day! My coworker had called his family yesterday to warn them of the tornado threats all over the news. They come on from time to time, and often the news hypes it up so much it desensitizes people. Evidentially about a minute after the call to his wife a tornado touched down and ripped through his neighborhood in Suffolk, Virginia. His family all got into a bathtub on the first floor, and the house decentigraded around them. It’s like a huge pile of kindling now. The family is 100% okay, having crawled out after the tornado passed. It’s all over the news here. We heard him get the call from his wife right after it passed. Absolutely insane. We’re supposed to get hit by hurricanes, not tornados.
Makes you recognize how everything in life can change in an hour.
i saw that on the news
a few mccrapshacks with their roofs ripped off
glad your friends family is ok they said 1 person was killed
Also makes you recognise that people are more important than possessions. Glad the family is OK.
Bingo
A friend of a friend ran with his family into the basement for the 2001 tornado. After it passed they looked at the light streaming in from the stairway and briefly wondered why the lights were working upstairs and not in the basement. Of course it was daylight because there was no upstairs.
They decentigraded? What units did they switch to, Kelvin?
Naah, they’re old fashined, they switched to Rankine.
Darn firefox speller
We all got your point, you seemed to be typing while excited.
Funny disconnect once again between WS cheerleader news story and stock index movements…
April 29, 2008 10:27 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Fed caution on Wall Street
Stocks erase modest losses but trade in a narrow early range.
With many apologies to our resident gold bugs, I feel compelled to note the resumption of gold price deflation.
PB, I think you owe the gold bugs a new set of underwear.
If the price keeps heading the direction it is headed today at a similar pace, I may soon be able to offer those undies in gold mesh.
The dollar and the stock market appear to be grappling with a possible end to FFR cuts…
Good timing here for the Fed meeting…better go out and invest in a spare house or two before inflation eats your household’s financial position alive!
ECONOMIC REPORT
April consumer confidence falls, outlook gloomy
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:27 a.m. EDT April 29, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Amid worries about jobs, the economy and gas prices, U.S. consumer confidence fell in April, perpetuating its downward slide as inflation expectations rose to match the record high reached after Hurricane Katrina, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
Tsunaminflation
Tsunaminflation
Ok, need help from the gold folks:
I have a “client” who has a number of American Eagle proofs .10 oz to 1 oz, an American Buffalo, 6 Eagle Platinum coins, and Eagle silvers.
Wants to sell them without getting screwed. Where’s the best outlet for him?
How much altogether? I’d be interested, and would pay the mid-point between buy and sell on Kitco. Please post your email address again and I’ll write you.
gymnastgal32 at yahoo dot com
Of course speculating in gold via buying proof coins means that he got screwed when he bought ‘em, he just hasn’t realized it yet.
He’s had them for over 15 years
Calif. bill requires lenders to maintain foreclosed homes
By DON THOMPSON Associated Press Writer
Article Launched: 04/28/2008 02:59:28 PM PDT
SACRAMENTO—Banks and mortgage companies face fines of $1,000 a day if they allow foreclosed homes to become run down and a source of neighborhood blight under a bill that passed the state Senate on Monday.
Why would a lender facing $bns in writedowns care one iota about a measly $1000 a day fine?
Could this wind up becoming a roundabout mechanism to transfer money from the Federal to local gov’ts. Local gov’t levies fine, bank pays fine, Federal gov’t offers tax forgiveness to banks for having paid said fine.
Sound more like a mechanism to drive banks into unloading their REO quickly, thus driving prices through the floor.
I’m all for this legislation.
My thought exactly. Lenders should either sh!t or get off the pot — don’t hang on to devalued REO forever and let it become the source of neighborhood blight.
If it does drive liquidation of inventory, fine by me.
A thousand bucks a day is an expensive alligator. It would be of great benifit to the lender if an “accidental” fire would burn these places to the ground.
One local television newschannels reported the city of Syracuse has about 1100 vacant houses. They will be selling many of these for $1 (similar to Buffalo’s program I believe) so the new owners can afford to bulldoze and rebuild ridding the city of the blight. They mentioned where most of these homes were located. Even w/rebuilt properties, it’ll take a bit of time before those neighborhoods appreciate.
Old: American Middle Class
New: American Muddle Class
Muddle: disorderliness, disorder - a condition in which things are not in their expected places; “the files are in complete disorder”
Old: One year supply of food
New: Two years supply of food
Food: something you save for a rainy day.
Old: $650,000 @ 6.13% $0.00 Down
New: 1st month + last month + security deposit…No pets!
Need to sell some gold Eagles, platinum Eagles, silver. etc. for a client. Where am I going to get the best selling prices? Thanks.
Ebay
Quick question for the HBB brain trust……
I found a couple of “200 Deux Cents Francs” notes in my desk last night (leftovers from a 1999 trip to Europe)……..worth anything, or can I pitch them without guilt?
-If worth something, where can I get them exchanged for Euros or US$Ds, either by mail, or in the Kansas city or Wichita area?
Just wondering………
My dad had a bunch of various European and Japanese bills in his bankbox when he passed away, we just took them to the local bank and they exchanged them at the current rate. This was in W. Colo., so you shouldn’t have any trouble in a larger city.
They are worth around $45 per banknote, but to be able to turn them into $’s or Euros, I think you can only redeem them @ central banks.(holds true for all european currencies, pre-Euro)
Thanks for the info.
OT: Record lows here again in Utah - 22 degrees last night. Also record highs, supposed to get up to 92 today. That’s a swing of 70 degrees!
OnT: Have been closely watching rental and RE prices in W. Colo., as I want to go back home for the summer - rents are increasing and I’m seeing more wanted ads by renters. In the meantime, houses still sit at high prices, not selling and very slowly dropping, if at all. I’m thinking the price of houses is driving the demand for rentals up, as no one can afford to buy. When do the rental curve and the housing curve meet and start changing?
Rents, unlike house prices, cannot become too far disconnected from people’s incomes, because they can’t be paid with funny-money loans. In extreme markets such as New York, this is somewhat mitigated by the willingness of local residents to pack more people into their apartments, and to pay a higher portion of their incomes to rent. I don’t expect that will be a serious long-term problem in Western Colorado, though.
The houses won’t sit vacant with high asking prices forever - either the owners will have to lower the price or their lenders will repossess the houses and do it for them. Once that happens, the pressure on the rental market will relent.
Cracks are showing in Jackson Hole, WY. Big cracks. Timberrrrr!
Sales fall 50%
I’ll take “Trailing Indicators” for $1 million, Alex.
“Quite frankly, most of them look at it as retirement. It’s as good a place as any - certainly better than the stock market’s been the last 10 years. They can live in it, they can work out of it, and they’re seeing their value go up every year,” he said.
“At some point - we see it every year - people just cash in and they move away, and they’ve got a million, two million bucks for their retirement.”
This guy has lots of buddies in Aspen and Telluride. They all get together and create their own reality, independent of the laws of the rest of the universe…so they believe.
On the other side of the state, in rough-and-tumble Carbon County (Gillette), they’re just getting rolling. . .
Millionaires’ appetite for stocks rising: study
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080429/millionaires_fidelity_study.html
“You can learn from millionaires — always — because this group typically thinks about diversification and the preservation of capital,” Callahan said.
Three-quarters of the millionaires concurred that the subprime U.S. mortgage situation has had at least a “slight negative impact” on the performance of their investments in the past year, with 42 percent saying it’s had a moderate to large negative impact.
The all-is-well stories continue to roll out, except if your not a millionaire.
It was a riches to rags story, economically…
Democratic senators want tougher OSHA penalties
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/osha_penalties.html?.v=1
smoke and mirrors, trying to draw attention away from the real issues facing workers today “job loss”
Not necessarily. Coal is on a tear, and miners have been put in deadly situations by the failure to enforce OSHA regs. Remember the 17 or so miners trapped last year…the owner had more than 100 outstanding violations, yet the mine was operating, and he never did jail time. The regulations are on the books…the admin has to enforce them on behalf of working Americans, not just wink and nod to the owners of dangerous industries.
The local post office has a big wanted sign: a $100,000 reward for anyone who can provide evidence leading to the arrest of the person (unknown) who threatened the life of the owner of that mine. I bet a lot of locals would like to see that money go to whoever could see the regs enforced there.
Where are we now?
Based on Case-Shiller Index for February, 2008
(Published April 29, 2008)
Location February, 2008 Number Lowest Since
Phoenix-AZ 172.72 March 2005
Los Angeles-CA 214.83 August 2004
San Diego-CA 190.34 February 2004
San Fancisco-CA 174.54 July 2004
Denver-CO 127.50 February 2004
Washington-DC 207.05 December 2004
Miami-FL 218.74 March 2005
Tampa-FL 188.59 March 2005
Atlanta-GA 125.83 March 2005
Chicago-IL 153.33 April 2005
Boston-MA 160.31 February 2004
Detroit-MI 97.61 September 1999
Minneapolis-MN 145.93 August 2003
Charlotte-NC 131.22 March 2007
Las Vegas-NV 177.18 May 2004
New York-NY 198.46 June 2005
Cleveland-OH 106.82 February 2002
Portland-OR 176.24 May 2006
Dallas-TX 117.72 March 2005
Seattle-WA 179.85 June 2006
Composite 190.58 November 2004
Composite -20 175.94 December 2004
Somebody’s partying like it’s 1999…
Note Charlotte, the only town up Y-O-Y (+1.5% since Feb. ‘07). Should get a clean sweep with next month’s numbers (CLT is currently falling like a rock).
Off topic…
Q. I don’t qualify for a Stimulus Payment based on my 2007 return. But my tax situation will be different in 2008. Will I qualify for any special benefit?
A. Possibly. The 2008 tax instructions will include a worksheet to help those who did not qualify for a payment or those who received a reduced amount determine if they can obtain a benefit when they file their 2008 tax returns next year.
Anyone know exactly what that means? Maybe I’ll still get a rebate afterall. I messed myself over by selling some stocks last year to pay for a wedding and that put me over the limit (something that does not apply to 2008).
It is some rediculous system (working in your favor, though) where they give it to you now based on elledgibility based on 2007 numbers but “really” calculate it later for 2008. If you would get less under that calculation, they don’t bite you, but if you should get more, then they will send you the extra.
Probably because they government has booked it against 2008 earnings, giving them more time to negotiate with the sovereign wealth funds for recapitalization
In the end, our economy will be remembered for it’s last days…
A massive check-kiting fraud, as the powers that be were saying, the worst was most definitely behind us.
The credit market turbulence started back in August 2007. Here it is 8 months later. Why are mortgage rates not higher?
Old system:
Bank raises interest rates on mortgages and other loans, uses money to pay depositors higher interest, leads to more capital from depositors to weather the storm of capital crunch.
New system:
Borrow the money from the Fed, keep interest rates low, don’t make as many loans, if something goes wrong, bail-out with multi-million dollar package.
Anecdotal: Just paid my storage unit in W. Colorado - the owner says the economy is tanking, people are having trouble paying their storage payments. Sad to lose everything you own cause you can’t pay the storage. I’d sell it cheap before letting that happen…
“I’d sell it cheap before letting that happen …”
Cheap offers would be the only offers you’d get in this economy.
I see notices in the paper every week for storage unit auctions. I’ve been tempted to check one out, but so far the list of items hasn’t seemed very intriguing. I’m waiting until I see the words “Tiffany” or “Gullwing” before I get too excited.
If you see Navajo rugs, collectable books, custom rustic furniture, and handmade quilts, it’s mine, go buy it for me
If they get extra, who get’s it? (If it’s me, can I rent it under the name Paris?)
NPR, April 24
Self storage business resession proof?
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/04/24/self_storage/
IRWIN KELLNER
The pause that refreshes
Commentary: Many compelling reasons for Fed to halt interest-rate cuts
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:28 p.m. EDT April 28, 2008
To his list, I will add that housing prices will remain unaffordably priced so long as interest rates are artificially suppressed.
So how does 14+% mortgage rates help “affordability” ?
Maybe it’s that whole cleansing thing…..kinda like ExLax.
Another sad ending.
“ELKTON, Ohio — An East Lansing man killed himself Wednesday while on his way to serve a sentence at the Federal Correctional Institution, The Vindicator newspaper in Youngstown, Ohio, reported.
Americ Joslin, 41, was the former owner and operator of the Dollar Nighclub in Lansing and Maggy’s Sports Grill and Bar in East Lansing.
Brian Koerbel, a Deputy U.S. Marshal in Cleveland, said Joslin was being driven to the prison by his brother, the Vindicator reported.
As he neared the prison, Joslin asked to get out so he could pray. He went into a wooded area and shot himself in the head, Koerbel said.
The Columbiana County Coroner’s Office is investigating but has not made a ruling.
Joslin was sentenced March 6 to 3 1/2 years in federal prison for bank fraud and identity theft. The charges were in connection with a $111,400 home equity loan Joslin had taken out on his mother’s house.
Joslin’s case was on appeal.
Joslin was a 1985 graduate of East Lansing High School and a 1991 graduate of Northwood University, his obituary said.
The Vindicator in Youngstown, Ohio, contributed to this report.”
Once again, a permanent solution to a temporary problem.
Shows the state of mind such distress can bring. One of my dad’s old neighbors shot himself when his ranch went into bankruptcy. I often wondered why he didn’t just go hop a freight and start over somewhere else - no family, fairly young guy. But distress makes such options seem impossible.
A good friend’s step-grandson shot himself earlier this year. According to my friend, his carpentry business wasn’t going well.
My brother runs a one-man painting shop in Boston. I told him I needed my roof re-shingled. He told me to watch out for roofers who decide to jump.
1. In which the government acknowledges no restraint upon its powers — totalitarianism
2. In which this unrestrained government is managed by a dictator — the leadership principle
3. In which the government is organized to operate the capitalist system and enable it to function — under an immense bureaucracy
4. In which the economic society is organized on the syndicalist model, that is by producing groups formed into craft and professional categories under supervision of the state
5. In which the government and the syndicalist organizations operate the capitalist society on the planned, autarchical principle
6. In which the government holds itself responsible to provide the nation with adequate purchasing power by public spending and borrowing
7. In which militarism is used as a conscious mechanism of government spending, and
8. In which imperialism is included as a policy inevitably flowing from militarism as well as other elements of fascism.
Wherever you find a nation using all of these devices you will know that this is a fascist nation. In proportion as any nation uses most of them you may assume it is tending in the direction of fascism.
http://www.mises.org/story/2903
This is for Ms. Txchick, Olympiagal, Big V and other young ladies that my feeble memory does not remember.
I always like style and this is style:
“Body Armor + Fashion Design = Armorni?
Posted by Anthony James in All Archive, Fashion, Technology
Who says protecting yourself from sniper attacks or chemical warfare needs to be ugly business? Certainly not Dutch designer Tim Smit. His “Urban Security Suit” will be all the rage in a war zone near you. Made of stylish neoprene and strategically lined with body molded kevlar, this runway show stopper will be THE must have accessory for your next war, skirmish, struggle, conflict, combat zone or civil strife you find yourself in or starting. Aeon Flux eat your heart out…”
http://www.yankodesign.com/index.php/2008/04/28/body-armor-fashion-design-armorni/
That emaciated model of indeterminable sex looks like he/she will drop dead of whatever wasting disease is ravaging them long before they have to brave a sniper round in some post-breakdown urban apocalypse.
Ah, perhaps survivalist items will be our next bubble industry.
Don’t dispair Sammy, the model has the look of post hyperinflated food price neo modernism: Underfed w/the underlying suggestion of male strength to intimidate those one may have to wrestle for that last bag of Sam’s Club rice.
Comment by cylonite
2008-04-28 07:47:14
“is it taser-proof?”
Comment by Tim (The designer of the suit?)
2008-04-29 09:49:48
“I wonder if the padding on it would provide enough protection to use on a motorcycle.”
The comments are fun to read.
Third world country not quite yet, but certainly not a first world country.
Many Americans struggling in life, survey finds
“…The survey of more than 100,000 people is an unprecedented in-depth look at the health, wealth and happiness of the U.S. population, the researchers said.
“You are getting the detail of what it is like to live in this country,” Daniel Kahneman, a professor emeritus at Princeton University in New Jersey, told a news conference.
The survey found that 47 percent of those polled can be considered struggling, mostly with worries about money….
Gallup’s James Harter said this compares to Denmark, where 83 percent of people appear to be thriving and fewer than 1 percent struggling….”
Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSN2937015820080429
http://www.city-journal.org/2008/18_2_happy_people.html
Courtesy of Prudent Bear:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=440824&in_page_id=2&ct=5
Bank of England to keep secret the names of banks it is bailing out. Nice.
Please consider watching the following coverage of a recent protest in NYC regarding the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns. The Ticker Forum put this together and is comprised of informed voters and investors.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpQ_EJMdGs
It’s important to follow the links at the end of the presentation and tell your congress-people what you think.
I also attach a White Paper written by Karl Denninger, founder of the Ticker Forum, that was faxed to all members of Congress and a link a petition you should sign if you agree this madness must end.
White Paper: http://www.denninger.net/letters/mortgage-mess.pdf
Petition: http://financialpetition.org/
Well, if anyone’s still awake out there, the price of Hawaii real estate just crashed…Aloha just shut down their last vestiges, their cargo division, laying off 88 people. My nephew was there when it happened, and he said grown men were crying.
According to him, this is the only way the outer islands get fresh foods, etc. So… go figure. There was talk about using Air Force cargo planes, but it looks like that’s a no go. Everyone there that has anything to do with Aloha is in a panic, including my nephew, who is out of business w/o cargo to the Big Island. He may be able to use a friend’s Piper Cub, but that’s short term.
And here in SE Utah, it’s very quiet…eerily quiet. We’ve been w/o power for about an hour (using a laptop) and the town is completely blacked out. Kind of a nice starry sky… ahhhhh…ciVIlEization… G’night, Mate.
Uh, how about using boats?
How far apart, in boat time, are the islands?
This is the next great fad. If you have daughters and grand daughters, this may be another “Wheelie” - a must have in a year.
Gimmicky But Fun Jump Roping
“This reminds me of one of those LED blinking clocks that magically suspend time in mid air when really it’s the speed of the oscillating arm creating the illusion. Apply that same process to a jump rope and you’ve got Jumplay. Every jump and skip is recorded. This can both be a good and bad thing since I have no jump rope skills. The counter would literally stall at 10 because that’s all I can do.”
http://www.yankodesign.com/index.php/2008/04/29/gimmicky-but-fun-jump-roping/
Now that the Brewers have refreshed themselves against the doormats, last post for the night.
“…The time for bottom fishing, they declare, “will be after a long, deep recession, when employment is down sharply and still falling, commodity prices have plunged, the scent of general price deflation fills the air and global financial and economic conditions are in turmoil. The risk pendulum, which reached extremes of complacency in 2006 before starting to swing back, will be near the other extreme, paranoia, not just in mortgage-related markets, but in asset markets generally. Fire sales to meet liquidity needs will abound.” …
Barron’s
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120916362804146087.html
It points out that the financials, “Since the wheels first started falling off last summer,” she relates, “the financials have posted no fewer than 12 rallies of 5% or more…. It bears note that none of these stints, separate or combined, have precluded the financial sector from shedding 28% over the stretch.”
I was counting on a rally to 13,000 on the DJIA - as well as for profit but also because someone posted here 11,000 before 13,000; and I as well as others commented no way. Now I am not so sure that the original commentator won’t be correct - even though the target of 13,000 DJIA or 1412 on the S&P500 is only a potential day rally away.