The Boom Was An Aberration
Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. MarketWatch, “The decline in U.S. home prices quickened in February, with prices down a record 12.7% in the past year for 20 key cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s. In February, prices were down 2.6% compared with January for 20 key cities, with prices in the smaller 10-city index off 2.8%. That’s the fastest monthly price decline in the history of the index. The pace of decline has accelerated for nine consecutive months.”
The Associated Press. “‘There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,’ David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, noting that all 20 metro areas have declined for six straight months.”
“Half of the cities saw home values plunge by double digits led by Las Vegas at 22.8 percent and Miami at 21.7 percent. Those two areas experienced the sharpest appreciation in 2004 and 2005 with annual increases above 50 percent and 30 percent.”
“Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s largest mortgage lender and servicer, said Tuesday it lost $893 million during the first quarter due to a sharp increase in its provision to gird against unpaid home mortgage loans. The latest results marked the third consecutive quarterly loss for Countrywide.”
“The company was forced to set aside $1.5 billion to cover loan losses. Charge-offs, or loans written off as not being repaid, totaled $606 million during the quarter. The lender raised its reserve for credit losses to $3.4 billion by the close of the quarter.”
“The mortgage lender recorded an impairment charge of $347 million during the quarter related to securities backed by home equity lines of credit. Countrywide also took a loss of $394 million as it transferred loans to a held-for-investment portfolio. Revenue plunged 72 percent to $679 million from $2.4 billion in the year-ago quarter.”
From CNN Money. “In a sign of just how bad things have gotten, the already harrowing delinquency numbers in Countrywide’s subprime portfolio moved higher to 35.88% from 33.64% in the previous quarter. Even the company’s conventional loan portfolio showed deterioration, as delinquencies jumped to 6.48%.”
From Bloomberg. “GMAC LLC, the auto and home lender that General Motors Corp. sold to a private equity group, said in a statement that the latest results included a loss of $859 million at its Residential Capital LLC mortgage unit. ResCap recorded a $910 million loss a year earlier.”
Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, reported its first quarterly loss in five years after writing down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts and asset- backed securities by 2.7 billion euros ($4.2 billion).”
“The company wrote down the value of leveraged loans and loan commitments by 1.8 billion euros and of securities backed by residential and commercial mortgages by 885 million euros in the first quarter.”
“Meritage Homes Corp., a U.S. builder that sells most of its homes in Texas, Arizona and California, reported a first-quarter loss as the housing slump forced the company to write down property values.”
“The net loss amounted to $45.3 million. Revenue from home sales fell 35 percent, to $371.7 million, and the company recorded $60 million in pretax expenses to write down property and the value of joint ventures. Meritage said its average selling price fell 13 percent, to about $280,000, in the quarter from a year earlier.”
“Empire Land has filed for bankruptcy protection, joining at least a dozen home builders that sought protection from creditors in the last 10 months as home sales and prices slumped.”
“‘A severe tightening or loss of financing for the entitling and development of land, and the resulting pressures that were placed on the debtors’ cash flows,’ helped prompt the bankruptcy filing, Chief Financial Officer Neil Miller said in a statement filed Friday with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Riverside.”
“The closely held company listed assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million in its filing. Empire Land and its affiliates build so-called master-planned communities, large-scale projects that include commercial buildings and schools, in California and Arizona.”
The Charlotte Observer. “D.R. Horton will finish construction on its current inventory, a fraction of the homes, over the next six months to a year, Crosland spokesman Bill Norton said. ‘Basically, it’s a national company that’s under pressure out of its Texas headquarters to renegotiate contract terms,’ he said of the builder.”
“Hannah Swetland, who moved into the neighborhood in October, said she noticed almost immediately that something wasn’t right. A few homes went up quickly, but then construction stopped, she said.”
“‘We bought before any builders were thinking about the economy,’ Swetland said.”
“Now, she’s worried about ‘our property values, but also just that the community was left like this,’ she said.”
The Rocky Mountain News. “Men dressed as pigs frolicked outside the annual meeting of Richmond American Homes in Denver this morning, drawing attention to the role they say corporate home builders played in creating the mortgage and foreclosure crises.”
“The six costumed pigs were supplied by the Laborers International Union of North America, which hasn’t had much luck unionizing house construction workers, but represent a lot of workers who work on commercial buildings.”
“The ‘Pigs at the Trough’ campaign hopscotches across the country, attending annual meetings of corporate home builders, and on Wednesday will be back in Washington, D.C., as Congress debates the Foreclosure Prevention Act, union spokesman Jacob Hay said.”
“Hay said corporate builders overbuilt homes, then to get rid of the excess inventory pushed subprime loans through their mortgage subsidiaries.”
“The consensus by local and federal officials is that home builders did play an important part in the foreclosure profit by offering loans at, say, 4 percent, that would change in a few years to 7 percent — a rate that many of the buyers couldn’t afford.”
“Richmond American Homes is a part of MDC Holdings, founded in 1972 by Larry Mizel. Despite a loss of more than $400 million last year, MDC awarded Mizel and President David Mandarich bonuses of $2 million.”
“The worst housing slump in 70 years erased 67 percent from the market value of homebuilders in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, turning the companies into small-cap stocks.”
“‘They went through the laundry and got shrunk,’ said Stephen Lieber, who oversees $11 billion. ‘It’s gone beyond an inoperable business situation and turned into an economic crisis.’”
“Centex reached a market value of $10 billion in July 2005 when new home sales peaked at an annual rate of 1.39 million units. The Dallas-based company has since lost 74 percent of its market capitalization.”
“‘The boom was an aberration,’ said Jonathan Vyorst, a New York-based money manager at Paradigm Capital Management Inc., which oversees about $2 billion. ‘The homebuilders have a long way to go and the value of land on their balance sheets has to be reduced dramatically.’”
From USA Today. “What needs to happen to stimulate the housing market? Dean Baker: ‘Prices have to fall. We had a bubble that got prices hugely out of whack with the fundamentals. We need a real price decline of between 30% and 40% from the 2006 peaks.’”
“Lawrence Yun, Chief economist, National Association of Realtors: ‘Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity. Prices do need to come down in some markets. But a measurable overshooting downward introduces a host of new problems, including additional pressure on foreclosures. We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market.’”
“Does the national median home price need to fall a lot more before the housing market can get moving again? Yun: ‘Prices need to adjust as the market dictates. Another 10% fall in some markets could occur. However, I doubt prices will or need to fall in the vast middle America. Indianapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, Omaha are, if anything, underpriced markets.’”
“What if you can’t pay your mortgage, yet can’t sell your home for enough to pay off your mortgage? Should you mail in your keys and walk away? Baker: ‘People should consider the risk to their credit rating vs. how much they can save. In some cases, walking away might be a perfectly rational choice.’”
From Reuters. “Home foreclosure filings jumped 23 percent in the first quarter from the prior quarter, and more than doubled from a year earlier, as more overextended borrowers failed to make timely payments, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Tuesday.”
“Foreclosure filings were far-reaching, rising on an annual basis in 46 states and in 90 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, to a total of 649,917 properties.”
“Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates among states during the quarter. Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Massachusetts and Connecticut were the other states with the top 10 foreclosure filings.”
“The share of vacant U.S. homes grew to a record high in the first quarter, the government reported on Monday. The percentage of owner-occupied homes sitting empty rose to 2.9 percent, the third straight monthly rise, for a total of 18.6 million vacancies, U.S. Census Bureau data showed.”
“With prices seen falling further at a time when there is an overabundant supply, some government mortgage relief programs may not preclude foreclosures from mounting.”
From Realty Check. “When you break down the sub-categories, you find that the number of bank-owned properties is rising faster than ever before. ‘Typically you’ll see about 20 percent of the foreclosure filings being bank-owned,’ RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga told me in an interview this morning.”
“‘We’re getting to a point now where it’s well over 1/3 and aiming at 40 percent, so that just suggests that a lot of these homes can’t even be sold to investors at auctions – because there’s just no equity in the properties,’ he said.”
“Sharga estimates that by the end of this year there will be over a million bank-owned homes in the market. There are about four million properties listed on the Multiple Listing Service. The National Association of Realtors noted last week that in a casual survey they found 18 percent of the homes currently on the MLS are foreclosed homes.”
“It’s interesting to me that given all the programs supposedly helping folks in default and all the banks claiming that they are doing refi’s or ‘work-outs’ or whatever, a growing number of homes are still going back to the bank.”
“Congress, the Bush administration and regulators have urged lenders to renegotiate terms for borrowers so they can stay in their homes, easing the glut of empty houses. Such efforts may mask the slump’s extent by delaying foreclosures, RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said in the statement.”
“‘This country needs a cleansing,’ said billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell. ‘We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.’”
“Government attempts to slow the flood of defaults ‘could be simply deferring another flood of foreclosures,’ Saccacio said in the statement. ‘That could extend the length of time it takes the market to recover from this downward cycle.’”
“The subprime borrowing spree featured lax lending standards that allowed people to buy homes with little or no down payment, and many of those borrowers today have no incentive to pay off mortgages that are worth more than the homes they bought, Zell said.”
“‘That whole process has to be liquidated,’ Zell said.”
The Kansas City Star. “The news that caught my attention comes from recently released transcripts of the 2002 meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. It makes monetary policy for the United States.”
“The transcripts, released after a five-year delay that reflects an irksome lack of transparency at the Fed, shed new light on its role in fueling a housing bubble that has since popped — putting us in our current economic predicament.”
“One theme in the newly released transcripts is how Tom Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, expressed concern as early as March 2002 about how incredibly low short-term interest rates — then 1.75 percent, and on the way to 1 percent — might be ’setting up conditions that I think will give rise to future imbalances.’”
“In May, Hoenig again warned about ‘risks of … some financial excess.’ In June, he called the low-interest-rate regime ‘extremely accommodative. And I think we need to take a longer-term view of this.’”
“The transcripts also reveal how captivated the then Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, was with how the housing boom was leading the economy out of the 2001 recession.”
“‘Despite the weakness in the economy, homebuilding has been remarkably well maintained,’ Greenspan said in June. ‘We are getting fairly dramatic increases in a lot of areas in the market value of homes and hence in total housing equity, from which there has been a consistent degree of extractions’ in the form of refinancings and home equity loans.”
“‘Unless we get a significant decline in home prices, and that’s a very questionable prospect at this stage, it’s hard to imagine that there will not be very considerable ongoing support for consumption expenditures coming out of the housing equity markets,’ Greenspan said.”
“In August, Greenspan acknowledged concerns about a ‘housing value bubble’ but questioned ‘whether that’s a valid notion.’”
Dead cat bounce ongoing for the dollar. Bernanke is desperately trying to defy gravity but the weight of record foreclosures is too much for him and the Fed.
The bounce looks like day-trading noise to me. Have a look at the longer -term chart:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
Only Flyover Larry can stop the housing bubble pendulum from overshooting downward, he’s our last chance…
“Lawrence Yun, Chief economist, National Association of Realtors: ‘Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity. Prices do need to come down in some markets. But a measurable overshooting downward introduces a host of new problems, including additional pressure on foreclosures. We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market.’”
“We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market.”
First there needs to be a legitimate, transparent, properly priced market. Then there will be legitimate buyers. Apparently it’s only when the market is crashing that there’s a sudden, belated concern about the worthiness or legitimacy of the buyers.
Umm…when the speculative excess ran from 30-70%, those buyers will still be significantly less than during the peak years.
Those who bought multiple homes are NOT coming back and repeating their mistakes.
There are many figures that will need to go back to normal, including the # of realtors.
What’s a legitimate buyer?
1 - has a job
2 - 20% down payment
3 - ability to pay closing cost/points
4 - PITI less than 30% or so
5 - 3 - 6 months PITI in reserves
6 - “A” paper credit, including low other debt
7 - doesn’t have a “wishing” price on their current property
Do you know how many buyers you eliminate with those standards?
You forgot to state that those who buy investment properties should also use a loan that states so.
“Do you know how many buyers you eliminate with those standards?”
If they don’t meet those standards, then they are not legitimate buyers, they are wishers.
All kidding aside, I suspect that if a buyer-to-be doesn’t meet most of those requirements, then they probably aren’t going to be able to make it to closing. I could be wrong, but as long as there is talk of banks having to cram down loan balances, they aren’t going to turning on the mtge spigot anytime soon.
Can anyone confirm/refute that?
Pen, Excellent post.
Right on, Pen. Homeowning isn’t a right, nor is it “The American Dream,” unless it reflects a responsible purchase.
We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market.’”
What a kawinkidink, it just so happens I’ll have an extra $1200 soon in my mail box. Now where’s that number to GraniteRus…
1-900-FBs-DFLT
“If they have home equity left, borrowers are hesitant to default, even if in trouble,” the analysts wrote. “If the house is worth more than the loan, why default and leave money for the bank? Better to sell the house instead.”
Why don’t these analysts ever point out that you effectively go underwater at about 10% equity after NAR’s cut, closing costs, moving costs, etc.? I imagine this effectively submarines at least 5 Million aditional households.
How about… lowering the price to something affordable? Hmmm… nah!
“‘Unless we get a significant decline in home prices, and that’s a very questionable prospect at this stage, it’s hard to imagine that there will not be very considerable ongoing support for consumption expenditures coming out of the housing equity markets,’ Greenspan said.”
consumption expenditures… yeah sure, Greenie, you certainly had a healthy economy in mind here, didn’t you?
How could someone with his experience and knowledge be so stupid?! He really believed that home equity extractions could fuel consumption indefinitely!!!! An economic perpetual motion machine.
“‘Unless we get a significant decline in home prices…”
Did he really say this? Has he not noticed the ongoing decline in prices? The was a mob chief NYC who wandered around in his pajamas pretending to be demented to avoid trial. Maybe that’s Greenslime’s new strategy.
You are correct. Ppl need to look beyond feigned stupidity and see him for what he is. A beast without morals or ethics, and a traitor to this Country.
He’s a Judas Beast…
But Tim…previously you said this:
Comment by Tim
2008-02-16 07:09:32
“There is no need to discuss whether Ben and Greenspan were ignorant or liars. They had no data to support a good faith belief in their positions. Enough said.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4160#comment-1223212
How did you do that? Is there an archive we can access? It would be interesting to go back and look at the 2005 threads.
As for my earlier post, at least I am consistent (i.e., no good faith basis = liar).
Just figured it out. I never noticed that feature before.
Did he really say this? Has he not noticed the ongoing decline in prices?
The quote was from 2002.
“‘Unless we get a significant decline in home prices, and that’s a very questionable prospect at this stage, it’s hard to imagine that there will not be very considerable ongoing support for consumption expenditures coming out of the housing equity markets,’ Greenspan said.”
“In August, Greenspan acknowledged concerns about a ‘housing value bubble’ but questioned ‘whether that’s a valid notion.’”
So he thought the the tooth fairy was going to continue to refill the housing ATM piggy bank in perpetuity? What a dumba$$. How convenient for he and his cronies in the administration.
He made some people very wealthy. Wealthy enough that they will survive any downturn with cash to burn. He believes he helped make the fortunes of his kind of people (Dagny Taggart, Francisco D’Anconia, Dominique Francon, Howard Roark-types).
From his perspective, he did nothing wrong.
(Dagny Taggart, Francisco D’Anconia, Dominique Francon, Howard Roark-types).
Speaking of which, did you read that article yesterday about the dating service for fans of Ayn Rand?
http://www.theatlasphere.com/
A dating service isn’t necessary if I can just find that secret valley hidden in the mountains where everybody looks like me and thinks like me. As society falls apart we’ll be basking in our wealth and planning to take over and bring back Prometheus’ torch, once the lights have gone out.
40 years ago those were his kind of people, but now he identifies himself much more closely with the looters & moochers…
But, I shrug
‘But, I shrug’
Ahahahaha! HAHAHA! I laugh loudly! Good one.
Unions will get going again in this country, when pigs fly…
“The six costumed pigs were supplied by the Laborers International Union of North America, which hasn’t had much luck unionizing house construction workers, but represent a lot of workers who work on commercial buildings.”
“‘This country needs a cleansing,’ said billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell. ‘We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.’”
We will get a ‘good cleansing’, all D.C. can do is delay it a while longer, of course that just increases the duration of pain.
‘We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.’
Let’s see…Mr.Zell…we’re you a “buyer” or a “seller” in this mania?
Raindrops keep falling on my head ..but now that they’ve turnin’ to hail.. I’m headin’ for my $$$$$$$$$$ 60 million dollar shed
Yes, raindrops keep fallin’ on people’s head… and I’m losing sleep in my $40,000 dollar bed…
Zell is dead on right, and was able to check his ego enough to sell his baby at 5 minutes to midnight. IMHO, he’s one of the few guys out there with any credibility left…
What did Warren Buffett sell at 5 minutes before midnight? Guess he was to busy chewing on his future thoughts…
Zell sold his Equity Office Properties in Dec. 06, at the top of the market. One fool on the other side of the table was Harry Macklowe, a biggie in NYC. He put up 50 million of his own, borrowed 5.8 billion from Deutsche Bank and bought 7. Now, he’s lost control of them, and is flogging the GM building, in order to raise cash. So far, no buyers at his price for the GM building, a AAA property. WSJ writer J. Forsythe figures he’s lost 2 billion. Now that’s an FB–and Macklowe is still trying to get out from under.
That don’t call Zell the “grave dancer” for nothing…
“‘This country needs a cleansing,’ said billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell… ‘That whole process has to be liquidated,’ Zell said.”
Cleansing? Liquidation? Like.. the Final Solution?! A poor choice of words by Zell IMO.
We have met the enema and it is us.
Try not to be so sensitive.
Don’t be ridiculous. Those are legitimate terms in a variety of contexts, and that’s aside from the fact that Zell is a Jew whose parents fled Nazi Germany and thus he’s unlikely to be parroting Nazisms.
Cleansing? Liquidation? Like.. the Final Solution?! A poor choice of words by Zell IMO.
Oh please. Zell’s blunt presciptive words were completely appropriate and refreshing after the pathological victimization of FBs by the media and our elected (retch) representatives. If a man can’t speak plainly and directly without some hand-wringer accusing them of harboring subliminal genocidal designs, then it’s going to be a long downward journey into the abyss with no one to speak plain truth and wisdom to guide us to higher ground.
It was a setup from the beginning! To suck people into loans they could not afford in the long run. Remember, GreenSlime encourged people to get ARM’s in Jan 2004. Now he says, a week later he took that back, but there is no transcript of his change of mind.
We all are going to feel the efect of this.
If Greenspan had told you to jump off a cliff in 2004, would you have?
Look, there’s no doubt that the Powers That Be were dispensing bad advice in the 2000-2005 timeframe, but why is the reaction always “Boo hoo - I was setup by the government and banks to spend like a drunken fool and now I need a bailout or I’ll lose my American Dream^TM!”
Excepting the small number of very legitimate financial hardship cases - cancer for instance that wipes a family out, why should anyone feel anything but derision for the countless idiots who slept through high school in the 1980s or 90s, got some $13 per hour job, then went on a 1%-dope fueled shopping spree as if they really had money?
In the old days it was “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”, but now it’s “I’m too damn stupid to think for myself, save me from all these complicated adult decisions Hillary!”
Not directing this at you personally Susp2, but I’m just sick of the whining. I liked the idea someone else threw out a few months ago - if you need a taxpayer bailout for your poor planning and stupid overspending then you don’t get to vote again. Ever.
if you need a taxpayer bailout for your poor planning and stupid overspending then you don’t get to vote again. Ever.
LOL… that IS a good one!!
A court-ordered sterilization wouldn’t go amiss, either.
It isn’t just Hilary pitching stupid ideas. W(orst president ever) has his own stupid ideas as well. He even berated congress this morning for not acting on “a single one of” his ideas for addressing the housing “crisis.”
OT: I love how he (and actually most Republicans I know) are blaming the Democratic congress for the current mess, as if Republicans haven’t been in total control of the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branch of the federal government for most of the past 8 years. If McBush pulls a win out of this election the Democratic Party needs to be taken out back and put out of its misery. If a Democrat can’t win now, they’ll never win.
If a Democrat can’t win now, they’ll never win.
That’s a tough one, look who they put up, Osama Obama (Ted Kennedy’s words) or Hilbilery. Slim pickins all the way around, both sides.
According to Bush, it’s: “fool me twice…won’t get fooled again!”
According to Hillary, it’s: “We treat these problems as if one is guacamole and one is chips, when … they both go together.”
http://www.lvrj.com/news/13702902.html
“‘Despite the weakness in the economy, homebuilding has been remarkably well maintained,’ Greenspan said in June. ‘We are getting fairly dramatic increases in a lot of areas in the market value of homes and hence in total housing equity, from which there has been a consistent degree of extractions’ in the form of refinancings and home equity loans.”
And yet he claims now that he is blameless in this debacle? This is the smoking gun that clearly shows Greenspan was aware of all of the refinancing and HELOC loans that were going on back then. How on earth could he expect it to not lead to problems? Was something supposed to happen that didn’t (war, terrorist attack, ??).
This man is clearly delusional.
“Does the national median home price need to fall a lot more before the housing market can get moving again? Yun: ‘Prices need to adjust as the market dictates. Another 10% fall in some markets could occur. However, I doubt prices will or need to fall in the vast middle America. Indianapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, Omaha are, if anything, underpriced markets.’”
I’m getting about fed up with ShangHai Louie’s BS. What he’s lamely attempting here is to back up the NAR lie that areas apart not commutable into metro centers didn’t see prices go up 2x-4x. I’m sure there is some advanced twisted logic apart from the obvious but I get too pissed off at this creep to try to figure it out.
When you have a declining population, you have less housing demand. And what is happening to the population in middle America?
And what does less demand mean, boys and girls?
That’s right, even lower prices.
Let us all recall that Detroit’s population has literally been cut in half in the last several decades.
And we know where their homes prices are at.
Detroit prices (according to the data I posted in the Bits Bucket today - gleaned from the Case-Shiller data released today) are at the lowest level since September 1999.
Ouch.
I need a “happy meal”
I never thought of that. And a happy beer?
I need a “happy hour” but driving while pissed is dangerous.
I just want to say SUV’s are the bane of drivers in small cars.
Fwy whack jobs could care less about safety.
Ouro, I just came off a 4 day allergic reaction (migraine, chills/fever) to a very common drug (Naproxin) the doc prescribed for a pulled tendon. It was very serious and put me in the ER. So, today I’m very very happy to just feel normal and healthy. The world looks pretty darn good. No matter what, don’t forget to count your blessings if you have your health.
Yikes. Have you been known to have allergies before? I check all the “No” boxes when I fill out medical history, but sometimes I wonder when a certain allergy will come out.
Glad to hear you’re better.
No, never before. But I never take anything, not even asperin, so maybe I’m more sensitive, I dunno. Thanks, Sleepless, it sure is nice to be alive, makes me want to go boarding or MTBing with you
Glad to hear that your health isn’t lost despite that ordeal, Lost.
My mother reacted so badly to an antibiotic that she went into shock and almost died. Needless to say, Yours Truly is very wary of antibiotics. I’ve had bad times with them too.
Mt Hood has record snow. C’mon over and get some! Then again most ski areas are only working on weekends now. MTB season is right around the corner.
Oh yeah, and I don’t take much in terms of meds either. I usually like my body to fight it off. So, I’ll make a note of that.
I typically just get lots of sleep and lots of grapefruit juice when ill.
Slim, Naproxin is an NSAID, not an antibiotic, but I’ve heard some bad stories about those, too. Glad your mom survived.
Hey, Sleepless, it’s been MTB weather here for the last month or more. (85 right now, too hot, but by evening I’ll be out and about.) Ah, where’s my Life is Good hat??? Yup, let your body fight stuff, that’s what pain’s for, to tell us something’s wrong…
Lost,
Where do you go for good ER care over that way? I figure your choices or Moab, Price or Junction.
Oh, no! Losty! That’s terrible news, but I’m SO glad you’re back to normal and healthy. I am more concerned about your well-than I am about, oh, gosh, many many people I actually know in their meat form. Go drink some broth and eat carrots and things, recuperate yourself up. We can’t afford to lose you.
Oh man, you guys make me feel better already!! Thanks!!!
As for ER, I went to Moab, the closest.
Geez, my blogbuddies are nice to me than my doctor was
Lost,
was wondering where you were. Glad you are feeling better, I’ve saved this for you…dinosaur crap found in Utah is going on sale in NYC, expected price…$350. Per sample. You have a real money making opportunity here..put those dogs to work…
April 29 (Bloomberg) — A pair of dinosaur turds, about 140 million years old, will go on the block tomorrow at Bonhams in New York. The rusty-brown mounds, known in scientific circles as “coprolite,” are estimated to fetch more than $350.
Coprolite comes cheaper than other dinosaur fossils.
“Most people think of dino dung and think, `Why would I want to have that on my shelf?”’ said Thomas Lindgren, the Bonhams specialist in charge of the natural history sale. On the plus side, Lindgren said, the dung “no longer smells.”
The seller is a Utah private collector who found the 5- and 7-inch, 2-pound specimens in the Morrison Formation, a layer of sedimentary rock dating back 150 million years, spanning several Western states and known for dinosaur fossils. To the untrained eye, coprolite resembles an ordinary rock.
“The appeal is that it’s from a dinosaur,” Lindgren said. “This is one of those items that strikes a curious nerve. It’s just a great conversation piece.”
Oh man, thanks for sharing that, Spike. Coprolite is very common out here, guess I’ve been overstepping an opportunity.
Too bad you are just a few fries short of a happy meal.
Like the number runners are gonna come through for the powers that be, when most of em’ are broke?
“Congress, the Bush administration and regulators have urged lenders to renegotiate terms for borrowers so they can stay in their homes, easing the glut of empty houses. Such efforts may mask the slump’s extent by delaying foreclosures, RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said in the statement.”
az lender
do you have a contact email ?
“‘We bought before any builders were thinking about the economy,’ Swetland said.”
“Now, she’s worried about ‘our property values, but also just that the community was left like this,’ she said.”
Just wait 5-10 years and she’ll have a real neighborhood. In a few years when the pickings get really good and we’re ready to buy, buying one of those empty plots of land in a nice 2005-2006 development (at half the 2008 price) and building our dream home might be a good option.
Yeah, buying before thinking gets you in trouble every time.
***“Lawrence Yun, Chief economist, National Association of Realtors: ‘Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity. Prices do need to come down in some markets. But a measurable overshooting downward introduces a host of new problems, including additional pressure on foreclosures.***
Why’s would there be additional pressure on foreclosures if prices drop more, Larry? In a normal market overshooting is a sign of… oh wait, this isn’t a normal market.
Rob
‘Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity.’
Might this be a veiled threat from Larry?
“You money saving slugs better buy something quick - or you’re all going to lose your jobs”
Overshooting downward can lead to a severe loss in commissions and membership extortion fees. Prices do need to come down in every market, so go strong arm your sellers. A measure shooting downward will help to encourage buyers to enter the market. To be sure, your commissions will be lower, but some is better than none.
That sound you just heard . . .
was the sound of Clownifornia “equity” money flying away to money heaven. Hope ya like here in Big Dump cuz you ain’t leaving anytime soon . . .
Dallas-area home prices fall more than 4%
11:41 AM CDT on Tuesday, April 29, 2008
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com
Dallas-area home price declines gained momentum early this year, according to a just-released analysis.
Local home prices fell by more than 4 percent in the latest monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday.
The benchmark housing price survey found that Dallas-area home prices in February had dropped to the lowest point since April 2005.
And local home prices were down more than 7 percent from their peak in the Case-Shiller index last summer.
Nationally, home prices declined 12.7 percent from a year earlier in the latest survey.
“There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,” S&P’s David M. Blitzer said in a statement. “Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation.”
Waiting for Go Dough in Big D
How many “cults” in Texas? …maybe they can convert the Clownifornia “equity” money McMansions into Texas state owned foster homes…or free “lone star” legal aid offices…. or both.
or maybe polygamist hidey holes
Yes, it will be sometime before a member of this group finds a desk name plate in the white house:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Smith%2C_Jr.
I can’t confirm this as true, but my wife was talking to a friend this morning. They got on the subject of a mutual friend in a Dallas suburb who needs to sell her house but refuses to drop the price.
The owner is very upset because the builder recently sold the same house for $165K less than she paid 2 yrs ago.
Glad there’s no bubble in TX.
If she won’t drop her price, it sounds more like she “wants” to sell her house than “needs” to.
It’s funny that this year in my area I’ve seen the strong denial shift from selling prices to rental “wishing” price. Two people on my street have let their place sit empty for 3 months while holding out for that extra $100-$200/month in rent. Assuming everthing goes perfectly from here on out, it will take them only 4-6 years to recoup the money they lost by letting them sit vacant for 3 months. ROTFLMAO
Theres a realtor who has a property up the street from us. It was available when we started renting 2-3 years ago. She wanted 1850/mo rent or to sell it for 460k. It’s still there now, she still wants the same rent and purchase price. As far as I can tell she has never rented it. I’m tempted to go and look at the place just for entertainment purposes.
When I was looking for a rental, some Bozo I work with, who was leaving the country for a couple of years but wanted to return to the Springs, offered me his place for $1850. He said, “I have to cover my mortgage.” I just smiled and said, “YOU have to cover your mortgage - I don’t.” End of discussion. It sat empty for several months, and last I heard he rented it to a less-than-desirable tenant for quite a bit less than his monthly mortgage. Oh well….
Dang. One of my best friends just bought a building adjacent to that Trinity River Project that Trammel Crow is developing. Because Dallas is different (or was).
B-b-b-but this can’t be true! Didn’t Larry Yun just say prices are increasing in Dallas?!? The NAR is never wrong! There has never been a better time to buy, since they aren’t making anymore land! Prices will be going back up in Q3 2008!
(shuffles off to pour txchick57 a nice tall glass of Kool Aid…)
Are there any window AC still made in America? the gf wants to spend her $300 on one.
Reminds me of a saga a friend told me of trying to find shoes not made in China. She went to about half a dozen stores and couldn’t find one pair.
It’s easy to find shoes not made in China. You just have to look in stores where people are generally willing to pay more for quality.
Nordstrom carries a lot of American-made Allen Edmonds and many various Italian makes. My wife bought a pair of Canadian-made winter boots that she absolutely loves - the combined fashion with warmth and comfort in a way that few women’s boots manage to do.
You just have to be willing to pay for them. That IRS refund check is a good start toward a collection of quality footwear.
-Some of the New Balance shoes
-Some of the Red Wing work/hiking boots
(I still have a pair of Red Wing boots that I bought back in 1988…..wore them everyday for 3-4 years, until I went to a suit/tie job)
“My wife bought a pair of Canadian-made winter boots that she absolutely loves - the combined fashion with warmth and comfort in a way that few women’s boots manage to do.”
I bet they are La Canadiennes. Great boots! Like you said, their are dozens of brands of shoes you can buy that are made in countries other than China. Since summer is coming, I recommend Naot sandals, which are made in Israel. They’re amazingly comfortable and practically indescructable.
I like SAS shoes from San Antonio:
http://www.sasshoes.com/
They don’t sell on-line, but they have authorized dealers all over the place.
Not to mention Tony Lama boots, made in El Paso by. . . people living in America.
By the way, this link is a good start toward finding something you like:
http://www.zappos.com/n/bs?q=usa&x=64&y=4
I’ve ordered from this site in the past and found it to be excellent, but I always prefer to buy locally when it comes to things where sizing is important. But at least you can find styles and brands and then find out a local shop that sells them…
“Are there any window AC still made in America? the gf wants to spend her $300 on one.”
How about a Mitsubishi? (We have been very happy with the Mr. Slim; more than the $300 she wants to spend, but maybe there are lower-priced choices.) They are made in Sewanee, Georgia.
Tell your friend to mosey on over to TJ Maxx, where she will find high-quality shoes by Donald J. Pliner (made in Italy), Bjorn (Denmark) and Stuart Weitzman (Spain) for a tiny fraction of their original prices. These are just the brands I know off the top of my head (because I buy them). I’m sure there are more that are not made in China.
I don’t know, but Panasonic makes one that is labeled ‘Library Quite’ and it is! Can hardly hear it run, so if it’s going in a bedroom that’s the way to go IMHO.
Friedrich is considered the best. Made in San Antonio Texas, they’re hanging out of the window of every expensive coop in town.
http://www.friedrich.com/
I can vouch for the quality of Friedrich products. I use one of their in-room air purifiers and am very happy with it. They are also much quieter than most of the competition, which makes them a lot more agreeable to me.
I’m increasingly agreeing with Ben about a bailout in all of this. It will be too little way to late to the marketplace. Most of the measures will make things worse.
The housing bubble is dead.
Long live the commodities bubble!
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Commodities took a pretty big hit today, too.
Nice to see Dean Baker get some play in USA Today. Unfortunately, he was quoted opposite Lawrence Yun, USA Today’s main man.
Here is a question for all y’all….
If Buffet was to start buying up home builders, would that mark the bottom or signal that the worst is over?
It would tell me he’s an idiot.
Buffet started a Municipal Bond insurance group last year, he didn’t buy one that was struggling.
I would ask if Buffet bought home builders vs. if Buffet started a home building business.
If he bought a home builder, I would assume he thinks the assets are undervalued. That might be a good gage for what he thinks land is worth these days. In short, I would say that it would mark what he thinks the bottom is.
If he started a home building business, then I would say he thinks the homebuilder’s assets are overvalued, so he’s going go out and buy property at a lower value than the builders have it on their spreadsheets. In this case I would say it’s not the bottom, but he is going to try to force the bottom sooner by aggressively undercutting current new homes.
I would also take inflation into account. Some building materials have fallen in price, but with shipping costs and metal prices up….I don’t know if it’s cheaper to build today than it was 3 years ago….
Just my two cents. Overall, if he bought builders today, I’d say he’s nuts. 2 years from now….I don’t know….
imo, this situation is unique and everyone, including Buffet, is flying blind.. and the only reliable indication of the bottom will be the shock of impact.
“‘This country needs a cleansing,’ said billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell. ‘We need to clean out all those people who never should have bought in the first place, and not give them sympathy.’”
I concur entirely! I’m sure it’s only because of his delicate sensibilities that he said “cleansing” when “enema” would have been the natural word choice.
>> “‘However, I doubt prices will or need to fall in the vast middle America. Indianapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, Omaha are, if anything, underpriced markets.’”
Yun cracks me up. In Dallas, he must be referring to the City of Frisclosure.
Why is Citi raising $3bb in the equity market a week after they implied they had things under control? Why do I get the sneaking suspicion that there’s still a ton of absurdly overpriced housing, land, and infrastructure out there that bagholders haven’t even gotten around to think about writing down yet?
Don’t they also have some pier loans they were stuck with when a couple of deals they underwrote came undone?
I’m kind of out of it, so terms like pier loans and auction rate securities aren’t perfectly clear to me, but I have figured this out: if a Saudi prince invests in it, and then doubles down, it’s not a good investment.
You sent me looking and I found it…about 12billion, Citi is trying to sell for around 90 cents on the dollar.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120769075480499305.html
Estimates for Q1 writedowns are 15-16billion, though whether that includes pier loans, which are not yet sold, is not clear, but yeah, Citi really needs some capital.
“CreditSights estimated that Citigroup will likely report the biggest write-downs for Q1. The write-downs could range from $15.2 billion to $16.8 billion, CreditSights reckons, depending on whether valuation reserves related to financial guarantors are included in the tally. The bulk of write-downs would still be in collateralized debt obligations made of asset-backed securities.”
OK, I think I’m getting it. The pier loans are actually kind of like the auction-rate securities that the IBs use, a pie-in-the-sky compounding of problems by rationalizing: hey, we have so many great assets that we can’t really achieve full value on right now, so what we’re going to do, is issue these NEW assets (derivatives of derivatives) to kind of hold their place until we CAN get a reasonable value for the other stuff, which our trading desks have assured us that. . .
“Lawrence Yun, Chief economist, National Association of Realtors: ‘Overshooting downward can lead to unnecessary loss in economic activity. Prices do need to come down in some markets. But a measurable overshooting downward introduces a host of new problems, including additional pressure on foreclosures. We need to genuinely think of bringing legitimate buyers back into the market.”
He didn’t seem to mind economic “overshooting” on the way up… What percentage of buyers were “legitimate” as prices “overshot” bubble territory? He’s a two-faced lying schill…
When have real estate agents EVER said anything aside from “this is a great time to buy!”
“He’s a two-faced lying schill…”
Natch, he represents realtors.