Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 30, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Tapping The Attic… I know a fellow in the pawn business, he says it’s up.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24375110/
Take note pols: this is an indication of how far those fartin’ in the wind tax rebates will go.
My office building has a few flat-screen TVs near the elevators that stream WSJ/Dow Jones news blurbs and stock quotes so you have something to look at while waiting. These things are getting pretty common in the Loop - most buildings either have these or tiny screens in the actual elevators that do essentially the same thing (or the building has both).
Anyway, this morning one of the blurbs essentially said that food and gas price increases were going to be taking up most folks’ rebate checks, so don’t expect any stimulus effect. I would bet that between 250,000 and 500,000 people saw that blurb today, just in Chicago.
This is going to sink in, but I bet the pols will be the last to notice.
More.
The garbage that’s pumped into those “captive” feeds in elevators, etc. is the same around the country. Only change is local advertising sometimes.
Yup, in LA we got the same thing in our elevator this morning.
Muzak for the eyes.
“Christine Hadley, a 53-year-old registered nurse from Reading, Pa., says she used to be “a clotheshorse,” splurging on pricey Dooney & Bourke handbags. But her live-in boyfriend left last year, and she has had trouble finding a job.”
She can’t find a job as a registered nurse??? What a loser.
I was wondering about that, all I see are ads for RNs. Even here you can get a job well above the median income as a 2 year RN, much better for a 4 year.
I agree! One of my sisters is an RN and there is NO problem finding a job period.
No doubt. I have a friend who’s an RN who has moved from Michigan to Florida then back to Michigan within the last 6 months with her hubby, and has had no problem finding a job in either state. Neither of which are exactly job meccas.
She can’t find a job paying her what she thinks she’s worth. I know “clotheshorse” nurses like to fill administrative jobs and wouldn’t touch a bedpan if their lives depended on it.
Yes, it’s one of the few jobs you can find almost anywhere you live. It’s hard work, but it does pay a decent wage.
And in many places you get long shifts and thus have most of the week off.
I know an RN that goes to a major city, works 3 days (and stays in a paid-for hotel), and then has the next 4 days off to spend with her kids. She lives in a small town in Ohio and is well above the median income for the area.
Once the powers that be take note of this, they will do their best to destroy this employment opportunity. I am sure we can outsource, insource, or right-size our way out of having any well-paying jobs!
I understand that they already are bringing in RNs from places like India and the Phillipines.
What is more telling, is that many doctors from the Philippines immigrate to accept nursing positions.
You are soooooooooooooooo 10 years behind the curve.
They are advertising even further afoot now.
RNs are in such demand that I have a friend that has a business in which he has a list of RNs whom he matches with hospitals. The hospitals fly them out and pay for their apartments, not to mention above market salaries. She is too lazy to work or has a record of incompetence. Also age is no excuse as my friend knows dozens of hospitals looking for 1 yr contracts. They are begging for help.
My gf’s 68 yo mom is a traveling RN working in CA. She makes over $50/hr with a free apartment a block from the beach and all the benefits like health insurance, etc. She has all the hours she wants. One year contracts. She just signed up for another year at the same hospital.
IMNRN and there’s a reason we’re needed. Burnout is high and there are alot of inactive RNs out there taking a breather. I’ve been active for 10 years now and have seen things… nevermind. You Don’t Want to Know. I also have a very sick sense of humor that makes normal folks gag so luckily my friends and family are in healthcare. Nursing pay is okay but the profession (direct patient care) sucks the life out of you.
I need a vacation.
Burnout is high and there are alot of inactive RNs out there taking a breather.
My mom was an RN in the ’60s, and that’s exactly what she said. She left the profession and became an attorney, then chucked the whole thing to be a mom. She later practiced law again and did legal consulting for hospitals, but never went back to being an RN.
bkiddo,
I am considering a career change and some form of RN is one thing I’m considering. Would you be willing to chat offline about this? My anonymous email is: junkinthetrunk@earthlink.net
There are many more options for RNs than direct patient care. My sister in the southwest, after she retired, had no trouble lining up a short term position doing doing a quality audit for an organization covering a large number of hospitals in her state. She says most of the temp personnel are middle aged or older RNs. The employees all need computer skills & a knowledge of nursing. There is some travel involved within her state, she is reimbursed for travel & lodging expenses. Some days she is even able to work out of her home, analyzing data & sending conclusions back to her employer over the internet. She said she would do the same job next season if it were available.
I’m in nursing school a I can get a job as a student nurse. Maybe she got caught taking the morphine waste.
I read a statistic a few years ago that, in the period since the last recession (in 2001), they only industries that saw any significant job growth were in health care and housing related industries. There are certainly no shortage of RN jobs on Monster.com
peter,
See my note to bkiddo above. Would you be willing to chat about your experiences as a student? I’m considering a career change. If so, my email is above
check your email
My daughter gets 3 or 4 solicitations a week as an ICU nurse.
She should move to Santa Barbara, our hospital needs to borrow RNs from LA. Our city college nurse training program has a several year waiting list, and as soon as those students graduate they’re working.
Probably has an alias such as ‘Nurse Ratchett’! hehehehehehe
If she moved to Cali, she could earn $300K+ for being a nurse. Just ask the highest paid municipal employee in San Francisco (a nurse).
So’s pawn company Cash America [CSH], up from 30 to 45 since March.
The poor woman felt so desperate that she sold her grandmother’s teakettle for $6? It’s going to take a while for that pitt in my stomache to disappear.
OTOH, the woman auctioning off her designer duds couldn’t have been so affluent if she couldn’t coast for a while after losing her income. Sounds like she was more of a poser than anyone w/true wealth. If only she had recognzied that, she might have saved for a rainy day while she had her income instead of deluding herself w/thinking that label on her *ss was raising her social rank.
/rant off
My thoughts exactly. Someone affluent wouldn’t be selling Versace jeans to pay bills. Actually, they probably wouldn’t own those jeans in the first place. Sam Walton drove a rusty Ford pickup to work even though he was the richest man in the country. That could be a good lesson for these I-wanna-make-everyone-think-Im-rich-but-Im-really-poor types.
One of my college classmates went on to become a multimillionaire. He did it by joining up with three friends and starting a company, which they later sold to Cisco Systems.
His big splurge after the big buyout? He bought the family a new car. It was a VW Beetle, and his daughter picked out the color.
The only thing I have in common with Sam Walton is my rusty Ford pickup.
why do people fill their houses with stupid crap anyways
when I was in college I cleaned out all the junk out of my relatives houses and sold it on ebay so I could get some spending cash
Every since then, I only keep things I actually use. Everything else gets sold. Why have crap to worry about when you move or a hurricane comes
Amen. Last year I decided to get rid of 2/3 of the stuff I owned. CL, Ebay, Goodwil and it was gone. I can’t imagine why I kept all that crap in the first place.
how about people who have so much crap they have to rent out storage space to house it?
I know there are people out there with antiques etc, that are worth collecting and saving, but really how many people just hoard massive amounts of useless stuff.
One of my friends, just can’t part with stuff even though its useless. Its kind of sad really the she has all kinds sentimental attachment to basically garbage.
Yes, let’s keep $2000 or worthless junk in a garage so a $30,000 car can sit outside (that describes my parents).
Anybody want to fund an Ebay store right across the street from a 2000 room storage place? I know of more then one.
Why Rent when you can SELL!
Before I moved to Fla I sold everything i owned but my car and some clothes. That was the most liberating feeling I’ve ever had. I might start collecting some new junk just so I can purge again. I think I may be a junk bulimic.
Sometimes it pays to hoard stuff. My friend who’s garage is cleaner than most folks houses lamented his cleanliness after his home burned.
dude, usually clutter increases the chance of fire, doesn’t it?
Yeah, I’m not seeing the connection either.
when I was in college I cleaned out all the junk out of my relatives houses and sold it on ebay so I could get some spending cash
I assume it was all yours or they allowed you to sell theirs?
Thanks for reminding me it’s about time for spring cleaning though :/
These newbie Ebayers (less than 100 feedbacks) are like amateur landlords. They don’t understand the basics, like…how to pack. I received an Ebay purchase last week that was wrapped in old paper bags and tied with string (like something from the Unabomber!), falling apart and crushed flat. Lucky for me, it only held a pair of jeans, but still. Grandma’s teapot would have arrived in a million shards. Buyer beware.
Bi coastal that’s how my aunt sends her heirloom jewelry out.
Tattered boxes, no returno. One time she asked a magizine salesman to put 11 checks in the mail for her nieces and nephews. These checks for $$$$ never made it. But the dude couldn’t cash ‘em either.
“We don’t have foresee having to raise capital”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0VzDwuh9CDE&refer=home
3.25 Billion loss at GM and GMAC
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axDDPjwlw5ck&refer=home
And the market goes up because the Fed will fix everything!
Are you still able to buy gas? If so, the Fed will fix that “problem” with a worthless dollar.
I guess it all works out: GM will stop making cars about when Americans can no longer afford to drive. Brilliant!
Are you still able to buy gas? If so, the Fed will fix that “problem” with a worthless dollar.
Well actually, that problem was fixed yesterday when I crossed over into NJ to fill up the panzer. While the tank was filling I saw the gas island attendants shooing off cars and putting cones up; they had run out of gasoline.
Luckily they had plenty of diesel (Flying J truckstop by the Del Memorial bridge). Unluckily it’s $4.03/gal :////
What! You don’t have a permit? Bring forth the dozers…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0VzDwuh9CDE&refer=home
That’s one way to cut a housing surplus.
Anyone “investing” in real estate in southern or eastern Europe should be aware of how corrupt local governments and REIC entities are. The rule of law is pretty much a notional concept in these garbage-pail countries. I feel kind of sorry for these Brit ex-pats paying good money ($350K plus) for a retirement villa that turns out to be one of 100,000 illegally constructed residences.
illegal construction is rampant in parts of Old Europe as well, e.g. in Spain and parts of southern France. And there are worse problems, e.g. in Hungary (?) there was a scandal last year where thousands of empty homes where sold to foreign speculators for a ‘very attractive’ price. These homes were temporarily empty because the real owners or tenants had been evicted by the mob. Transfering ownership of an empty home is perfectly legal in these countries, as long as you use a lawyer to do so. This scandal only got into the media after a son of one of the members from parliament suffered the same fate as many ordinary citizens.
–
As I say sometimes…
Fraud and Bubbles
Go together as Love and Troubles
Jas
Particularly since they seem to have tried to do the thing when purchasing.
“The former head of urban planning in Marbella has been charged with money laundering and accepting bribes to issue building permits. When Juan Antonio Roca was arrested in March 2006, police seized 2.4 billion euros ($3.8 billion) of assets, including two hotels, sports cars and 103 horses. Roca denies any wrongdoing.”
Just a *wee* bit corrupt in southern Spain.
power trip:
The Federal Reserve could use proposed new regulatory powers to try to stop credit and asset market excesses from reaching the point where they threaten economic stability, the US Treasury said on Tuesday.
link:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51d699e4-1623-11dd-880a-0000779fd2ac.html
Sounds like yet another New Era is upon us — the old Rules of the Game don’t apply any more, and in fact are on the brink of abolition.
Fed uber alles
Ja das stimmt.
Bernanke & Co are reading up on Weimar and what followed?
What followed? - great - next it’ll be “Arbeit macht frei”
Morgan kompt das Rentendollar.
USD. $1000.000.00 bills. Bring your wheelbarrows since you’re paid thousands of them at one time.
Gott sei Dank.
Is there any company out there giving big raises to their employees right now? Is anyone really anticipating a huge raise next year?
You can’t fill up that wheelbarrow without huge raises.
I just don’t see it happening.
I think Stagflation is back in town - no raises, high inflation on commodities.
Oncle Buck ist kaputt.
Dr. Strangelove: Sir! I have a plan!
next it’ll be “Arbeit macht frei”
… it’s already trending toward “Alles ist verruckt!”.
We may be skipping the arbeit and the frei stages.
The former head of a Wall Street firm, wants the Fed, who blew it’s role as regulator in the housing bubble and is VERY Wall Street friendly, to take over more of the regulation of Wall Street. Where the Treasury Secretary will return next year.
Am I missing something?
I’ll assume you are talking about Hankster the Bankster at Treasury.
I recall studying this concept in graduate school.
And it was this:
If an individual, group, or organization of some kind (in this case “Wall Street” or its representative proxy in government) goes TO the federal government and says: “please regulate us”… one can be absolutely certain that it is to the benefit of that group to be regulated.
Since “Wall Street’s” reputation is going to be completely hammered during this slower growth period in the US economy, becoming more closely regulated is one way to keep themselves in the game - or at least relevant. And perhaps keeps more of those companies in business and the game players at their jobs. This will also allow them to be prepared for when the public demands more regulation and they won’t make the mistake of not being a major party at the table when “regulation” occurs.
All this rather than being rejected outright and thrown out the door, so to speak.
The Market WILL only go UP!!
It is a matter of “security” now.
This board has been predicting desperation sales for some time. Sadly, this prediction has also come to pass.
Again, cash is king.
Sure, they aren’t making any more money.
Oh, there making more money; they’re just not making it fast enough.
Nor is the money being widely distributed as it needs to be.
Still looking for a used PWC at the right (desperation) price.
PWC?
Oh, the M0 reports and M3 reports would beg to differ. They are in fact making less cash and less debt.
Just lowering rates to lower losses to keep this from becomming a disorganized rout.
Personal Water Craft.
Porky White Chick.
That’s all I can think of.
From Google, PWC=Personal Watercraft or Professional Woman in Construction. I’m thinking the latter.
Price Waterhouse Cooper
My mind is in the gutter. The first thing that came to mind was, Price-Waterhouse Coopers. Website is pwc.com.
Dammit, when’s happy hour?
“Dammit, when’s happy hour?”
Its five o’clock somewhere.
Hey Sleepless, you thinking of bailing out of finance for health care? That’s what I thought of, too.
Mac,
I’m not in Finance. I’m in tech and manufacturing, for lack of a better description. Right now I do tech sales. We see a lot going overseas but projects have (so far) always come along to replace them. I love the autonomy of what I’ve got and that will be a lot to give up.
On the other hand, since I was 17 I have had an interest in biomechanics and bioengineering. I’ve denied that for 20 years and want a closer connection to the med world. I had also considered med school for a few years after graduating college. I personally don’t think I have the commitment to do the physician thing but I’m considering several options in the med field and trying to soak up as much as possible. Feel free to email me at the above addy to discuss…
The problem is trying to keep the value of your cash up in this period of high inflation and low stock apreciation. Any suggestions other than gold?
“Other than gold” is my suggestion.
Get to cash or as close to cash (meaning: get liquid)
as you can and ride out the forthcoming economic chaos.
I’m with you Combo…other than my illiquid investments (interests in debt-free land, 100% leased commercial property, etc.), I’m completely liquid, primarily in Municipal Bond MM Fund.
I’m trying to lose as little as possible in turbulent times…
I have no idea, I’m thinking a major consumable goods stock-up in the $2500 range would yield about a 12% return over the next year…
I bought a 1.3 ct. round diamond from someone on Craigslist for $2K last week. GIA cert, easly $7K at least from a dealer.
Thats a pretty good price, but I don’t have faith that the century diamond bubble is gonna hold much longer. Technology is in the early stages of man-made diamonds that are indistinguishable from natural diamonds. No I am not talking cubic zircon either. How do you know the diamond you bought is real in the first place?
Uh . . . we met at the offices of a local diamond dealer that I know?
Do you think I’m a complete fool?
you should have bought some land in nw pa instead
welcome back bye fl
He’s baaaacccckkkk!!!
Community college finals are being held this week in FL I think. Must be done with finals.
Oh that’s right, college is beneath Bye FL.
lmao.
My online courses for one of the major FL schools are done Fri.
GIA certified.
I’ve got a GIA graduate gemmologist diploma and I agree with you completely. The idea that diamonds are going to hold value doesn’t make sense when you consider there’s already a synthetic diamond that they can’t separate from the naturals. A Singaporean jeweler I know said his clients were now investing in diamonds rather than gold, but they’re going to be in for a shock. Certain varieties of really good quality colored stones are a whole different story because there’s limited supply, but even they might come down in a global recession (or if another big source is found, which is less likely).
If they can make synthetic diamonds, how hard would it be to counterfeit really good quality $100 Bills?
Tell me about it. I love the Padparadscha but the prices are scandalous.
Did the seller have any idea of the value?
Or were they so desperate to sell?
A guy who got a divorce. Needed money to pay the attorney. I see a lot of this. Guys who are really angry and just want to get rid of bad juju.
Next week it’ll be “worth” $200.
I wouldn’t say next week, maybe in the next 10-20 years youll be able to get a 1.3 carat manmade diamond for $200. The mining of natural diamonds won’t be profitable anymore at this point and no one will want “blood” diamonds. You can google this.
Thats a pretty good price, but I don’t have faith that the century diamond bubble is gonna hold much longer. Technology is in the early stages of man-made diamonds that are indistinguishable from natural diamonds. No I am not talking cubic zircon either.
If you hate diamonds, which is perfectly fine, perhaps you may consider other stones, such as rubies, sapphires or emeralds. The most valuable of these stones have certain characteristics (flaws, if you will) that identify their original location. The most valuable examples will have no signs of heat-treating, which would exclude any artificially-made stones.
Diamonds tend to become more valuable as they become more perfect - so the incentive for artificially producing them is high.
Corundum stones become more valuable as they exhibit certain flaws and characteristics. Artificially produced stones are valuable in industrial applications (watch crystals, etc) and in mid-range jewelry, where people are accepting of stones without the desired pedigree as long as they look great.
We in the electroincs industry can grow diamonds, saphire and other stones if we need to. We are considering using saphire for substrates. Diamonds were the hardest to grow.
GE could sythesis a flawless diamond in the color of your choice. Until they “lost” the formula back in the late 80’s.
Brian, I bought a sapphire a month ago from a cool company called Wildfish Gems. They specialize in unheated Ceylon sapphires. Check it out.
I actually analyzed diamonds and colored gemstones for a crystal grower. They were desperately looking for the “formulas” then. It did seem to me like they didnt know what they were doing. It made me sick to put 50 karats into the W carbide grinder for each analysis. They seemed to have the formula for amethyst down pat; beautiful, large, deeply colored crystals.
I just recently purchased a colored cultured diamond. These are man-made diamonds that are physically/chemically identical to the dug up variety. Let me tell you, the demand seems very high for cultured diamonds as there are only a couple labs that can reliably produce them. There are serious wait lists now, but in due time with production ramping up there will be a flood of these diamonds. Although I figure I have overpaid what the prices will be in a couple years (albeit much cheaper than a mined-color diamond), it’s my way of supporting the destruction of the DeBeer’s cartel. After reading about “blood” diamonds several years back, I could never buy a mined diamond with a good conscience. (I did consider used, but still didn’t feel right for me.)
Then I read that Wired article back when it was published, and that rang a bell. It’s been several years since that news broke, and it’s finally coming to the masses. If you’re interested, Apollo is making clears and Gemesis does the colored. The blues and pinks are still hard to get, but yellows can be found.
Wife has a flawless three carat Marquis cut from Tiffany’s (family heirloom). A jeweler offered her $20,000 for it - wonder what he’d sell it for?
Probably $30k to $40k if they can find the right buyer. Jewerlers lowball people so they can resell for big profit.
Dude, you find me a 30K 3 ct. flawless rock and I’ll not only buy it, I’ll give you a 30k finders fee.
He might come up with a 3ct. pubic zirconium.
pubic zirconia is lovely stuff
lmao
70-110K I would think. I’ve looked at ones that size.
I keep underestimating the cost of diamonds and am shocked that a flawless 3 ct. diamond can cost as much as a small house!
I don’t own any diamonds nor do I need any. My sister probably owns a few really tiny diamonds, maybe a few hundredth carats on her errings, rings and other jewerly. Oh and my dad owns diamond dust sandpaper he got cheap
Doesn’t matter -Wifey Poo would sell the kid before she’d sell the rock. It has a matching one mounted for a necklace too.
Just make sure it’s well insured. Chubb is good.
I have never understood the allure or high value of diamonds, nor does my wife. To prove the point, she recently went to hock her engagement diamond.(not for financial reasons but to prove the point of our discussion that diamonds have little real value). Needless to say there were no takers at any jewler and the pawn shops offered her less than one tenth of it’s purchase price 15 years ago (and I got a deal on it on a government liquidation sale of a large high end jewler). The jewlers openly scoffed at her which we got no end of humour out of as an exclamation point on our discussion. In retrospect, I should have bought her gold ishares or stock as an engagement gift. Much more easily convertible.
Speaking of DeBeers
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arv_4Xhh3CHs&refer=home
“I have never understood the allure or high value of diamonds”
“I should have bought her gold ishares”
I’m surprised these two statements are from the same poster.
Both items are stores of value because historically they have been stores of value. Other than history, and some commercial uses (which are reducing in both cases because of synthetics for diamonds and alternatives to gold), diamonds have value generally because they are sparkly, and gold has value because it’s shiny.
Gold will hold it’s value better than diamonds because people still haven’t figured out a cheap way to MAKE it.
People are figuring out how to make diamonds inexpensively (carbon is cheap too).
Overall though, both have value historically for cosmetic reasons, not practical reasons.
Diamonds are a nightmare’s best friend, in terms of investing in them.
Absolutely no fungibility, as every last one is different.
Ever try and sell a diamond?
I think i’d prefer doing dentistry on myself…
I wonder what my relative’s heirloom previously perfect 1 carat would be worth. I say previously perfect because the original wearer shut it a 1930s weight car door. LOL
Not visible to the naked eye but it has a lovely fissure in it now.
My wife’s mom had a flawless 1ct diamond bought in 1940. In the late 70’s she had it appraised, value $15K. Months later she took it to the same jeweler and said that she’d like to sell it and he offered her $5K. When she questioned him on the difference, he took her into the back vault and showed her numerous others in stock. Always been leery of those in the trade.
If you want to know what a diamond is worth, try to sell a used one.
It’s well known that jewelry has a high retail markup of 200+%. It’s not a high volume item. Why don’t you sell it yourself? If you don’t like not being able to sell high value jewelry, art or antiques for close to the price you paid, you’ll have to be educated in those areas and buy them direct second hand from owners who won’t have a retail markup. It will take more time and travel expenses.
Why is so hard for people to understand why there is a difference between real wholesale prices and retail prices. Possible the stores want to pay for their rent, employees and advertising and still have a profit after that. The nerve of them.
really? …. i paid $4600 for my wife’s 2 ct marquise diamond last year.Its also GIA certified in the top 15% of color and clarity.
flawed:
As foreclosures surge, lenders might be forced to acknowledge that far more of the mortgages they sold to investors were never written properly in the first place.
That’s one analyst’s conclusion from the latest earnings disaster at Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s biggest mortgage lender.
http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-country30apr30,1,1706588.story?track=rss
euros wanted:
GUANGZHOU, China — Facing the double-barreled threat of a falling dollar and weakening American demand, some Chinese exporters are starting to ask European customers to pay in euros.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/worldbusiness/30yuan.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
UK price drop:
House prices fell for a sixth consecutive month in April and are now lower than they were a year ago - the first annual decline in 12 years - Nationwide said on Wednesday.
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto043020080350071559
The UK is 2 years behind the US. Have house prices even started to drop in Canada?
yeah, it is all happening in slowmotion. Netherlands had its biggest monthly pricedrop in many years, but is still positive on a yearly basis. Still several upbeat home flipping programmes on TV here, and the general public is only worried that selling a home takes so long - they are certainly not worried yet about lower prices ahead.
Keep in mind that Europe is not simply running two years behind the US, the EU housing bubble is MUCH older than the US bubble. It is clear that government interference with the housing market is much stronger in most of Europe, and this is causing market forces to slow down to a crawl. This made for an even bigger bubble, and might ultimately result in a bigger crash as well.
Said it last week. The Euro is a great short. Shh…….
It maybe slow motion in euroland, but it’s fast forward in UK.
Sentiment is spiralling downward and even the PTB paint a
gloomy picture. hoorah!
Prime Minister Gordon Brown told the BBC’s Today programme that the housing market was one of a number of economic issues “to deal with” along with help for pensioners and low-income families on fuel bills and petrol prices.
“Now, I think that we can come through this as a country,” he said.
Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat’s deputy leader and Treasury spokesman, said substantial house price falls should be expected.
“Unfortunately it does mean that very large numbers of people who often had no choice but to take out very large mortgages at the peak of the market, they now find themselves with the problem of negative equity,” he said.
Well, things had better come crashing down soon over there before increased interference to prop up the Bubble is considered as a GOOD idea by our leaders here - I don’t want them taking lessons from Europe!
Let Ben know that this is exactly why we’re against bailouts and government intervention.
Sure, fundamentals will return at some point but I’d rather than happen in 3 years than in 15 years.
Not yet happening in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Within the last edition of the local paper’s Real Estate section the follow quote can be found from a usedhouse salesperson,” For the first-timers, I’d say the best time to buy is now - it’s not going to get any cheaper.” Ottawa is a one horse goverment town, that Silcone North designation never really worked out. The goverment here actually downsized aggresivly in the early ninties and house prices tanked for ten years. People couldn’t sell.
From about 1999 to today house prices have tripled, and the country’s economy is entering a bad funk. Look out below…..
I know “cottage country” up north is still very hot real estate.
“I know “cottage country” up north is still very hot real estate.”
I love that area, and would buy if prices tanked. But you’re right, prices are still sky high around Muskoka, and the other lakes. Besides, Canadians love those cottages, I bet they’ll try to hold on as long as possible.
Probably get a chuckle or two from the regulars, but IMHO cottage country and small slices of the US cottage country probably are “different” and will hold up in value. They won’t be immune, but the supply/demand equation and very low need/history for financing these places will help them hold up…… We’ll see…
high anxiety:
LES ULIS, France: When the local bakery increased the price of a baguette for the third time in six months last year, Anne-Laure Renard and Guy Talpot invested in a bread-baking machine. When gasoline became their single biggest monthly expense in January, they decided to sell one of their two cars.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/29/business/29prices.php
“Across Europe, people in the middle layer of the labor force - from office workers, civil servants and skilled laborers to low-level managers - are coping with a growing sense that they are being pushed to the margins like never before, as a combination of rising costs and stagnant wages erodes their purchasing power.”
Ah, I love the stench of globalization in the morning!
Although I didn’t realize it at the time, way back in 1980 I got my first glimpse of the globalized future facing Europe (and all of us). It was at Vienna’s Sudbahnhof. A relative pointed out to us the arrival of the afternoon “immigrant train” from “the east”. Throngs of Eastern Europeans disembarked lugging their every possession - the great movement had already begun.
Judging from the stories my relatives have been telling these past two decades, the plight of many Europeans is quite similar to our own.
Europe needs all these immigrants to keep maximum upward pressure on home prices (many of these immigrants from Africa and lately Eastern Europe get free homes, although often they have to wait a few years before their status and entitlements become official).
“Ah, I love the stench of globalization in the morning!”
Doesn’t it make you wonder where the flash point is going to be?
Sometimes I think the anger will be managed and focused to some foreign entity a la Hitler. Sometimes I envision middle America actually getting organzied enough to fight back. Nah! We’ll fight each other instead. Upstate/downstate, old timer/newbie, right/left
(sigh)
“Ah, I love the stench of globalization in the morning!”
You’re not alone, bro.
The modern american politico is effective at keeping us divided if they do nothing else right.
in Europe the focus is definitely on the muslims; when things go really wrong it is an easy bet who will be blamed (wrongly so, IMHO). Some things never change, although the details now are exactly opposite to the Weimar-WWII era.
‘in Europe the focus is definitely on the muslims;’
My sister stayed in Sweden for a year and when she met up with distant relatives there, sort of a ‘welcome to Sweden’ visit, they told her to stay away from Arabs, because muslim immigrants commit most of the rapes. Oh. No fiddling around with political correctness from them, we see. She did come home unraped, and with pretty clogs for me, and lingonberry jam, so I learned that Sweden is quite terrific.
…so I learned that Sweden is quite terrific
Stockholm is a great city. I loved how you can hop on the ferry right downtown and head out to the many islands in the archipelago. Quite a wide variety of islands, from small-towns to uninhabited. On one island, we walked through a pine forest (with lingonberry covering the forest floor) for an hour or so until we came to a nice sandy beach with a great eastern view of the Baltic. We saw 2 other people the whole day. This was just a 1-hour ferry ride from downtown.
Defaulting On ‘Pick-A-Pay’…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120952247549655211.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace
In a lawsuit seeking class-action status filed in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, Mr. Marini and other borrowers allege that Countrywide put them into option ARMs that were “inappropriate and unsuitable.”
I just don’t get this. Isn’t it your responsibility is it to determine whether a loan is suitable for you?
The lender only cares whether it will be paid back. Any suitability analysis it does is for its own interest not your’s.
April 30 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in the Hamptons, where rich and famous New Yorkers spend summers by the sea, fell in the first quarter as Wall Street job cuts and an economic slowdown took a toll on buyers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=axeUPXHfnG8U&refer=us
defaults rising:
As the growth in subprime mortgage delinquencies appears to be slowing, lenders are seeing a rapid rise in defaults on a type of mortgage that gives consumers with good credit several different monthly-payment options.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120952247549655211.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace
And the article did not even address what a time bomb these are for the banks. On their balance sheet, if I understand correctly, they are listing the principle as paid and the accrued interest as profit, even though it has not been collected yet from those borrowers paying the minmum, less than I, payments.
The banks are going to have some splaining to do when they must restate their books to adjust for all of these going bad.
jumbo trouble:
In early February, Congress gave beleaguered mortgage borrowers a rare cause for celebration. As part of the economic stimulus package, it passed rules intended to make it easier and less expensive for people to take out hefty loans in the nation’s costliest housing markets.
Instead, the effort to make it easier to get jumbo mortgages — loans over $417,000 — has yielded frustration and disillusionment.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30jumbo.html?ref=business
The Hamptons appear to be DECLINING - laid off financial types… Poor fellows, they don’t know where their next fix of Beluga and Dom will be coming from.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=axeUPXHfnG8U&refer=home
“New York-based financial firms, hit by mortgage-related losses and writedowns, have cut about 31,500 jobs over the last 10 months, according to Bloomberg data. Wall Street’s four biggest firms set aside 23 percent less money to pay compensation and benefits to employees in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, depressing demand for homes and causing sellers to reduce their asking prices.
It’s nice to see that even Wall St. executives are having to cut back. So far it seems as if it has only been the little guy who got screwed.
Of course, being able to afford a $1M McMansion instead of a $2M McMansion isn’t exactly my definition of hardship.
I guess people who can afford only a $1M mansion while working on/near Wall Street must be toilet ladies or something similar.
DETROIT — The General Motors Corporation said Wednesday that it lost $3.3 billion, or $5.74 a share in the first quarter, as losses from vehicle sales in North America grew and the United States housing slump hurt its financing arm.
Must be the stellar vehicle line up they offer. What? No one wants a ’slade anymore?
“Must be the stellar vehicle line up they offer.”
It’s not lineup as sales are falling for everyone. Legacy costs as well as that silly finance arm that they have are what’s driving these losses. Without more union conscessions GM could be in a world of hurt.
I think all the homies moved to those Bently knock offs. The 500 or something?
Luckily we are not in a recession, or this news would be very troubling.
WASHINGTON - The bruised economy limped through the first quarter, growing at just a 0.6 percent.
Thats growth what are you thinking recession. Ha The goberment is looking out for us. No worries. Go spend your $600 and help us in this time of slow down “not a recession”.
Oh and “its never been a better time to buy”
I’m telling you - they are going to count inflation as “growth” so as the dollar tanks and prices spiral out of control, they’ll keep using an absurdly low inflation deflator while claiming great “growth” - yeah, sales are up because gas costs $5 a gallon, there are bidding wars for food, etc. Wonderful!
“WASHINGTON - The bruised economy limped through the first quarter, growing at just a 0.6 percent.”
Typical BS Gov’t spinning and manipulation of Stats. Out here in CA & LA retail, business, eateries, everthing is slowing down. All stores dead, local shops dead, eateries dead. I do trips into Long beach dwtn shoreline and on weekends no activity and this on 80% balmy sunny clear days. Yes there some are walkers and exercisers but no one is spending. Walmart dead. Home depot dead. CVS dead.
Only activity i see is the road crews and of course long lines at the cheapest gas stations, which is Arco in S Cal. Seems as if the local and state Gov’t does have the funds to keep up the basic road repair & utilities work but thats it. Everything else is shuttering down, especially retail.
The escalating costs of basic necessities such as food & gas combined with rising unemployment and dissappearing mew/heloc is having a devastating effect upon CA, at least for the middle & lower economic stratum, which is over 95% of population.
The Gov’t is so full of BS with their economic stats. Ditto for all the other major economic reports from the academics, think tanks, and assorted Gov’t bureau of liars.
Thanks, Peter M
I’m waiting for the “revision” in two months.
I’m going to call BS on this 0.6% growth with airlines, small business, auto, housing, and most retailers in the toilet.
Think exports…
I am thinking of exports — oil, that is…
WASHINGTON — For a generation, Americans snapped up clothes tailored to every demographic, bought the latest sport utility vehicles and piled on the wide-screen TVs.
No more. The nation’s long buying binge appears to be over. And that’s probably bad news for the economy.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-consumer30apr30,1,5924755.story
“And that’s probably bad news for the economy.”
Ah, but it’s good news for humanity.
I just have to laugh. I’ve noticed that I’ve been spending more discretionarily this year. Amazing deals are to be had if you have cash.
I’ve spent a lot less and have been working more this year. My fun is reading more blogs and books. Riding my bicycle and watching movies too.
We haven’t seen anything yet in terms of “amazing deals” to be had…
Incomes are stagnant & jobs are going away, as food & fuel go through the roof.
You can expect additional pressure price-wise on anything that requires gasoline, which means cars, rv’s, atv’s, motorcycles, jet skis, and anything else that needs go-juice, will be available for a pittance…
Except for a used car for myself (first one in seven years) which I wouldn’t buy except the Kid needs my old one, I just don’t see anything out there I actually want. We have everything we need and have most of what we want (which isn’t much). Maybe a trip back to Hawaii for a week this summer…
“You can expect additional pressure price-wise on anything that requires gasoline, which means cars, rv’s, atv’s, motorcycles, jet skis, and anything else that needs go-juice, will be available for a pittance… ”
I am very tempted to get a craigslist deal on parasurf gear. Off the eastern shore of Long beach near belmont shore there is a parasurfing cult. I watch those dudes skimming that water carried by kitepower harnessed to windpower. Occasionally flying thru the air if they catch a good swell.
The economy is crashing, inflation, high gas & food prices, nasty recession, RE meltdowm, job cuts, CA gov’t broke, foreclosures, ect. So might as well f*k it and go parasurfing.
keywords : para surfing, kite surfing, Long Beach parasurfing.
My sister in Boca Raton just got an amazing deal on a boat.
“You can expect additional pressure price-wise on anything that requires gasoline, which means cars, rv’s, atv’s, motorcycles, jet skis, and anything else that needs go-juice, will be available for a pittance…”
“My sister in Boca Raton just got an amazing deal on a boat.”
I am salvating on either taking sailing lessons and maybe down the road getting a small skiff. Either that or doing parasurfing. Gotta be one or the other. Since gas and energy costs so much to do any kind of traveling out of LA out to deserts/mountains(am a longtime hiking /backpacking nut )i might as well turn to the ocean which is right at my doorstep. I can spend less than gallon of gas and half hr travel time and be on a nice white sandy clean beach(Huntington beach) or 15 minites and be at the Long beach shoreline/Marina. Have already dipped ten times this year in the HB swells.
I trash LA metro region a lot- plenty of bad stuff in LA- but the huntington /OC beaches are a saving grace. Best long stretch of white sandy beach in LA/OC is in HB, and easily accessible. Good swells. The bikepath running alongside that beach for much of the 20-30 miles is a nice feature as well.
I watch those dudes skimming that water carried by kitepower harnessed to windpower. Occasionally flying thru the air if they catch a good swell.
peter m: saw kitesurfers for the first time a couple years ago at Ocean City, NJ. Watching them go airborne was fun - can imagine what a thrill it must be for the surfer.
“You can expect additional pressure price-wise on anything that requires gasoline, which means cars, rv’s, atv’s, motorcycles, jet skis, and anything else that needs go-juice, will be available for a pittance…”
So true, but now that I can more easily afford toys, I find I don’t want them. I might pick up a pop-up camper if I find a great deal, but then I’m locked into owning a vehicle that tows.
hey philly gal
coming to philly tomorrow night- going to see the phillies and visit one of my vendors in Phoenixville
“I watch those dudes skimming that water carried by kitepower harnessed to windpower. Occasionally flying thru the air if they catch a good swell.”
philly gal,
There are companys /individual entreprenours giving lessons on kitesurfing in Long beach. Costs are about $500 for a complete 3- course set or $199 each lesson, cheaper if u sign up in a group.
Costs of buying your own gear including the parasail, board, wet suit & harness would be about a $1000 if U get everything on the cheap thru craigslist and go economy.
There goes my Bush stimulant check!
mgnyc99-
You’ll be in Phoenixville, a little too early for Blobfest ‘08 . Have fun at the ballgame!
peter m -
I’m not a strong enough swimmer to brave the ocean waves. I will have to live vicariously through you kitesurfers…
Peter M: My son belongs to a boat club in Marina del Rey. It’s a kind of time share thingee where he gets to take the boat out three or four times a month (more, if he goes on weekdays instead of weekends). You might enjoy something like that.
“Since gas and energy costs so much to do any kind of traveling out of LA out to deserts/mountains(am a longtime hiking /backpacking nut )i might as well turn to the ocean which is right at my doorstep.”
“Peter M: My son belongs to a boat club in Marina del Rey. It’s a kind of time share thingee where he gets to take the boat out three or four times a month (more, if he goes on weekdays instead of weekends). You might enjoy something like that.”
Thank You for that info. That was what i have been thinking: do a a time share or rent out a boat when i need it or something where i don’ have to buy the entire thing and have a big costly purchase with boat dock fees.
PM
That is very true, tx. There are loads of deals to be had. My basic problem is that I didn’t spend like crazy during the “run up”. Now, I’m used to not spending during the “run down”. Besides, the stuff I see that people are trying to sell.. I really don’t need it or want it. I’m really doing fine. Really. Strange.
Roidy
NOTE TO SELF: Buy new tires for car. Basic radials, no spinners or bling, just tires. Get lifetime balance and rotation. Then become a true pain-in-the-butt about showing up every 6mos for the balance and rotate.
Three years ago we bought a lightly used Corolla. Enduring the list of crap at signing the money guy tries to sell you, I had him back up at the “pay $398 for all the oil and filter changes you use for your car.”
Paid for that in a heartbeat. My husband drives 45K miles annually (aarrrgh), so for once, one of these expensive add-ons worked in the buyer’s interest. Still tickles me.
I’m sitting on a deal for a NEW, in box, from a major retailer, guitar. Normal street price is $2399, today it is $1699 plus a $500 rebate. $1199. Tempting to trade the worthless dollars for something that at least looks pretty on the wall.
Just Buy It!! - you can never go wrong with a guitar, even a bad guitar - the greatest instrument on earth… even when played poorly…ah, love the classical, love the Tommy Emmanuel (thanks, Lad), the old Blues, Robben Ford…even like the old vintage Shadows.
Except I already have two guitars. heh.
But you’re so right - nothing is better than a good guitar, a beer, and a few hours. And I’ve been saving for this darn guitar for a year, have the cash….I hate being a saver!
Two???? ONLY two????? Jeez, what a loser…
go for it, Chili…
I’m embarrassed to say how many I have. I try to not be ruled by my possessions. As discussed higher up the thread, owning and worrying about a bunch of stuff can be unhealthy. However, I can’t help but accumulate records, guitars, and books.
I’m actually selling one of the guitars right now…to make room for a new one! In my defense, all mine cost less than $500. I can’t justify spending more than my car is worth on a guitar.
I’m thinking the same way you are, actually - if they’re going to hyperinflate our currency, at least I can actually play a guitar rather than a pile of PM.
My ex had about 20. All he ever did was play the guitar. No, that’s not why he’s now my ex - I love guitar.
I have an old Noble slide guitar I bought from an old uranium miner, but I can’t play it. It looks cool, though, ivory.
I was looking at used boats for our camp. Decided to wait and have I have received calls from 3 Sellers of the 6-8 boats we looked at offering to lower their “firm” sale price. Boats are quite discretionary and burn lots of expensive gas…… I’d guess 1/2 the boats were bought on HELOC’s……
Where are you? There are boats for sale all over my town in Maine. I’m going to try to pick up a couple of kayaks this weekend.
Our camp is in the Adirondacks, lots of boats for sale along Lake George and smaller lakes. I’d bet many won’t even go back in the water this year. I was looking for a +/- 20 footer I could trailer back and forth. Many to chose from at great prices. Also looking for a kayak or canoe or two for our non-motorized lake.
“was looking at used boats for our camp. Decided to wait and have I have received calls from 3 Sellers of the 6-8 boats we looked at offering to lower their “firm” sale price. Boats are quite discretionary and burn lots of expensive gas…… I’d guess 1/2 the boats were bought on HELOC’s”
In long Beach CA marina i saw some repo boats. I don’t know if the owners didn’t pay their dock leases or simply defaulted on the boat contracts but they are there for sale. There is also an old type 70 ft , 10 ft wide galleon for sale. Something that might have been used by Columbus on his voyages.
Ton’s of boats in every description here in Long beach
“Amazing deals are to be had if you have cash.”
I’m sure you’re right, but I don’t want anything. Maybe a cottage or a tiny house somewhere, and a used car, but not for a couple of years.
Spike, I’m with you. Those who travel light can travel far…
Agree, LiU. That’s my mantra - trying to live cheaply and basically get down to the only thing I take when I move in a laptop. The rest is sold and repurchased at new location (going used). If this is done correctly, I think a person could live for only housing expenses. Everything else (furniture, cars, etc) is a wash.
Looks like as of May 5th the new (up to) $729K Conventional loans will be coming to Atlanta zip codes that are high cost zips. 125% of zip code median price is the loan ceiling.
Was opening up an account and the bankers wanted to refinance me. I told them if you can get me a better rate with no out of pocket nor increase in the loan size, I’m all ears. They were “surprised” by those requirements
…
Don’t let them refi you into some 2% teaser adjustable mortgage thatll reset to 12%
From The Times
April 29, 2008
A land of lies, damned lies and statistics
Gerard Baker: American view
It’s a nice irony that the “two consecutive quarter of declining GDP” may have been a ruse created by the LBJ administration - this may be the only legacy of LBJ’s reign that Bush isn’t keen to dismantle!
On Statistics and Economics
Both classes my 19 yr old daughter is taking this quarter.
Yesterday she annoyingly whined “why do these teachers act like they are talking about math or science!”
And “when my economics teacher started talking about CNBC and Cramer on YouTube” - dramatically back-handing the air in disgust.
Even she gets it.
Well, because statistics *is* math and is heavily used by the sciences?
From Times Online
April 30, 2008
Nationwide reveals steep drop in house prices
Housing prices off 19.2% in S.D. area
S&P index for February shows plunge from same month in ‘07
By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER
Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Diego, five areas that saw home prices rocket ahead in the housing boom, are now leading the retreat backward, as prices fall in the wake of mortgage-financing troubles and an economic slowdown.
Looking at the MSL, I am not seeing quite the haircut in SD nor LA. Much bigger price drops in parts of Florida, especially Port Saint Lucie and Cape Coral.
“MSL”
Do you mean listing prices in the MLS? How do expect to see sales price drops in the prices of homes that are not selling? (They do show up there, but with a lag…)
The MLS also lists sold prices. Please confirm you are looking at prices at which the houses sold rather than wishing prices of currently listed properties Bye. These areas are ones where you can offer 20% or greater less than list price, and you may get it for that if you find the right seller.
I think that Major League Soccer (MLS) should change its name….
American Premier League sounds beter anyway.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30jumbo.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
The program “is so much of a failure that it’s really unbelievable,” said Daniel M. Shlufman, president of the FCMC Mortgage Corporation in Clifton, N.J. Mr. Shlufman likened Congress’s effort to “coming up with a vaccine to a terrible disease, and then not giving it to people, or making it too expensive.”
For entertainment, go back in the blog archives a couple of months to see what posters here predicted about the effectiveness of these housing market stimulus measures to increase conforming loan limits against a backdrop of falling prices. It took some posters as long as ten minutes after the announcement to figure out this bizarro scheme would not work. Maybe the Congress needs to find some smarter economists to help them hatch their eggs.
Rules to ease jumbo loans called ‘failure’
By Matt Richtel
NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
In mid-February, Congress gave beleaguered mortgage borrowers a rare cause for celebration. As part of the economic stimulus package, it passed rules intended to make it easier and less expensive for people to take out hefty loans in the nation’s costliest housing markets.
…
Since the rules took effect April 1, numerous prospective borrowers and their mortgage brokers say the new loans are either not available or the rates are far higher than they expected.
The program “is so much of a failure that it’s really unbelievable,” said Daniel Shlufman, president of FCMC Mortgage Corp. in Clifton, N.J. Shlufman likened Congress’ effort to “coming up with a vaccine to a terrible disease, and then not giving it to people, or making it too expensive.”
“In some cases, unit sales at the Sexton mirror the boom and bust of the condo market. One unit sold in August 2006 for $620,000 with no down payment, according to property records. It went into foreclosure nine months later and most recently was listed for sale at $109,900.”
If we are seeing this much of a haircut, it could be possible that we may see the return of $50k starter houses in the cheaper towns of Florida. Price drops are constantly exceeding even the pessimists predictions!
I am also seeing prices finally dropping *faster* than they were going up! We are on the other side of the bell curve. Itll be another 2 years of fast price drops before they start to level off, dropping more gradually but won’t bottom for several years yet.
FDIC Finalizing Direct Home Loan Plans: WSJ
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila Bair is finalizing a legislative proposal that will let the Treasury Department issue direct loans for nearly 1 million homeowners, in a move to prop up the housing market, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday.
The plan, which needs Congress approval, would permit new government loans so borrowers can repay up to 20 percent of the principal they owe on their mortgage, the report said, citing
confidential draft of the proposal.
RELATED LINKS
Some Nasty Foreclosure Numbers
Home Prices Tumble
Foreclosures = Profit Opportunity
Though borrowers would not have to make any payments on the Treasury loan for the first five years, they would still be required to pay off the mortgage and loan, the report said.
The FDIC has calculated that it would require a $50 billion public debt offering to modify 1 million loans, the Journal reported.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24381609
“Though borrowers would not have to make any payments on the Treasury loan for the first five years, they would still be required to pay off the mortgage and loan, the report said.”
Will renters (who are on average, poorer than homeowners) qualify for these new government-sponsored subprime loans? If not, how would the government justify a program which looks on the surface like welfare to the rich?
Oh, no - renters will probably have to pay some sort of “UnAmerican tax” for not living in debt.
They just keep dragging this thing out longer and longer, thus making certain that everything gets dragged down into black hole of Peak Debt.
“So borrowers can repay up to 20% of the principal”
Not that this is a good idea, but I’m not sure 20% is going to do it?
Looks like an unintended consequence could be to stimulate more home construction against the backdrop of 18.6 million unaffordably valued vacant homes. I wonder if anyone thought about the relationship between unaffordable home prices and record vacancies when they cooked up this proposal?
I wonder what % of the borrowers is going to pay up on this loan (after the five free years).
“I wonder what % of the borrowers is going to pay up on this loan (after the five free years).”
If the loans are made like student loans (can’t be discharged in bankruptcy) I’d say there will be a very high percentage that will be paid back. If not, hold on to your rear end.
I’m curious how they’re going to calculate debt to income on liar loans. They said at the date of origination, but if there was no documenation are they going to use tax returns? We financed the house just in my wife’s name to take advantage of down payment money from the county. DTI ratio was probably 95% based just on her income.
How did homeowners in the U.S. become a protected class? And isn’t downpayment assistance one of the main reasons the housing market is in such a huge mess? More hair of the dog is offered in this proposal.
Bair Proposal Seeks Government Loans To Aid Homeowners
By DAMIAN PALETTA
April 30, 2008 6:56 a.m.
WASHINGTON — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair is finalizing a legislative proposal that would allow the Treasury Department to make direct loans for close to one million homeowners in the latest government initiative to stabilize the slumping mortgage market.
FDIC PROPOSAL
• Home Ownership Preservation Loans (.doc)
The plan would authorize the new government loans so that borrowers could pay down up to 20% of the principal they owed on their mortgage, according to a confidential draft of the plan obtained by The Wall Street Journal. That would mean that if a homeowner owed $100,000 on a mortgage, the government could loan up to $20,000 to pay down the principal.
“This approach is scalable, administratively simple, and will avoid unnecessary foreclosures to help stabilize mortgage and housing prices,” the draft said.
homeowners are a protected class in most of the First World nowadays; probably because homes (mortgages) have proved the easiest way for central banksters to rapidly increase credit.
Right, no one is doing anyone any favors here - the plan is make sure the golden handcuffs aren’t loosening. Whatever assistance anyone may, or may not, get will only be taken out of their hide over the long term through increasing property taxes, soaring insurance costs, and endless debt servicing.
It’s all about keeping the host organism alive.
“It’s all about keeping the host organism alive.”
Great post. Once you understand that principle, you can see that every government “help” program is designed to do just that.
Good analogy
Agreed… banksters profit from renting money, landlords from renting houses. Better the core financial elite gets even richer than to spread the money around a rather proletarian investment like managing property. Gotta devalue “throwing your money” away to landlords, and exalt throwing it away to banks. Hey! We get a tax break!
Great post.
Eligible Mortgages:
Applies only to mortgages for owner-occupied residences that are
1. Unaffordable – defined by front-end DTIs (debt-to-income) exceeding 40 percent at origination.
2. Below the FHA conforming loan limit.
3. Originated between January 1, 2003 and June 30, 2007.
I’d hate to have closed on Dec 31, 2002 or July 1, 2007
Although I have continued my fight for targeted “bail-outs” of financial institutions to the extent necessary to prevent an economic crisis resulting in a greater evil, the only “bail-out” for homeowners I would support would be one that helped them walk away from their houses and let them fall into foreclosure as quickly as possible, and assistance in helping the banks dump such homes at greatly reduced prices. If the goal really is stabilization, which it should be but not what I think their real goal is, we all know where that is. Cashflow properties falling within historical pricing ratios.
A quick math exercise indicates that this program would only apply to motrgages that had an original interest rate equal to or higher than today’s 30 yr. FMAC fixed rate, unless the borrower got a huge raise in the meantime.
How many “unaffordable” mortgages from 2003-2007 were made without a teaser rate, or at interest over 6%?
But you can’t just bail out the McMansion. You also have to bail out the SUV.
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20080428/BUSINESS/267129555/1006
If I were going to buy a huge SUV, I’d buy a Toyota Landcruiser. I’ve run into them in the some of the most remote corners of the world and I’ve never seen one broken down…
GDP nos. better than expected.
Does this imply the Fed has no rationale for further rate cuts?
You would think, wonder how much of this is priced in.
My guess about how the Kabuki dance between the Street and the Fed will play out:
1) The Street will celebrate the better-than-expected GDP numbers today, despite the apparent implication that the Fed has little rationale for further rate cuts;
2) The Fed will find reasons to go ahead and cut, despite the lack of an apparent rationale for doing so;
3) The Street will have further cause for celebration, thanks to the “unexpected” cut in the face of “better-than-expected” GDP numbers.
It’s all good! Party on, Garth…
I’m ready to buy puts this afternoon.
I jumped to quick on the rails, still, i think the top is in, bni put in a nice shooting star yesterday.
Probably going to take some right before the announcement if they rally it up there and then some afterward. Remember thei monster rally after the Fed meeting in Sept? What a put buying opportunity that was!
Momos are piling on the rails, unp must have found a cure for cancer.
Ok, hit on some more. Expect to get the rest after the meeting.
I wonder how much of that is due to commodity-driven inflation of many goods. In my industry, materials and supplies are up about 15% on average since last year.
Maybe the FEDs are afraid to cut more as the dollar will hyperinflate and start riots. They probably realize that they have cut rates all they could.
I guess we should also send back our stimulus checks now.
GDP includes fuel sales, doesn’t it?
So the GDP is easily inflated with this huge increased spending amount.
GDP
Definition
Gross Domestic Product. The total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year, equal to total consumer, investment and government spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports.
I think it even includes utility sales, and I think utility sales may be included as manufacturing.
The SIC groups utilities with transportation services like railroad or trucking companies. Manufacturing is classed in groups 20-39. See http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.html for details.
Expected by whom? President Bush recently said that the economy was not contracting, merely growing very slowly. I, for one, did not expect that he would be contradicted publicly by his subordinates at the Commerce Department. By the way, I read a few years ago that of all government departments and major agencies, the Commerce Department had the highest number of political appointees per 1,000 employees.
The Latest Rising Currency: Dolphin Teeth
People in the Solomon Islands are pouring their savings into an appreciating commodity: dolphin teeth. This traditional currency is gaining prominence after years of ethnic strife have undermined the South Pacific country’s economy.
Me, I want some of those honking big stone Yap island coins.
Countrywide Swings to Steep Loss
Countrywide posted an $893 million loss as a federal probe is turning up evidence that sales executives at the mortgage lender deliberately overlooked inflated income figures for borrowers.
…
Some of the problems are surfacing in a mortgage program called “Fast and Easy,” in which borrowers were asked to provide little or no documentation of their finances, according to these people and to former Countrywide employees.
“Fast and Easy”: Sounds like sex with a cheep hooker.
I think the news story here is that the Feds are even investigating. Do you think anyone will get jail time? Most likely they will just pay a fine to Uncle Sam…who ironically also should be sharing in the responsibility for this mess.
I think Countrywide et al. paying restitution to foreign investors or victims of predatory lending will be out of the question.
“Swings to” a steep loss? I don’t recall it being profitable last quarter either, nor the one before that.
April 30, 2008
No Fed Rate Cut
In what may be the last great act of his presidency, George Bush is sending many Americans tax rebates. The checks began going out this week. Some households may get as much as $1,200.
What is not clear is how many citizens will go out and buy a new washer-dryer set and how many will simply stuff the money into their mattresses. One would cause inflation, while the other would only serve to hoard money as many families are beginning to hoard food.
The Fed has several reasons not to cut rates again.
I get mad everytime I read stories about this. We aren’t getting a dime and we pay out the a$$ in taxes.
“I get mad everytime I read stories about this. We aren’t getting a dime and we pay out the a$$ in taxes.”
Compared to most industrialized nations we pay very little in taxes. I’m not excited about it and I don’t want to pay any more than I have to. Remember that taxes are a big part of the reason that we declared our independence. The income tax needs to be replaced with a use tax on all goods and most services. Social security needs to be abolished.
I agree with this. If we taxes consumption instead of income this country would be a different place. We could solve many of our pollution, overcrowing, and wasteful ways immediately.
Taxes on income encourage laziness. Taxes on consumption discourage SUVs, second homes, boats, all the toys that have put the middle class in a major pickle.
Think of the poor people!
Yeah, but remember when they put that tax on yachts? I never heard so many rich people whine.
Don’t expect a consumption tax to happen any time soon.
Consumption taxes are regressive, but there are ways around this. Rebates for those under a certain income, for instance.
Historically speaking, it is very odd that a donative is coming from a departing, and not an incoming, Emperor.
That he is paying for it with borrowed money seems to be standard for the course…
Folks who are out buying diamonds do not need to be stimulated. Stimulis is for the guy who wants to buy consumer crap but cannot afford to.
Not a dime here either!
Me, too. Neither are we. But I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that we make too much $$ to qualify.
“I get mad everytime I read stories about this. We aren’t getting a dime and we pay out the a$$ in taxes.”
“…last great act of his presidency…”
I almost swallowed my tongue! Be careful posting this stuff.
Did the 2001 Tax Rebate Checks Stimulate Consumption? The Economic Evidence
http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/22891.html
We find that households spent about 20-40 percent of their rebates on non-durable goods during the three-month period in which their rebates were received, and roughly another third of their rebates during the subsequent three-month period.
“Some households may get as much as $1,200.”
Nice reporting….. I’m getting $1,800!
We’re getting $201. And only because we max our 401(k) action.
Fugly Fugly house in Chicago for $500,000.
But it’s priced to ’sell fast’! (see below)
“Charming old irving park victorian: beautiful brazilian cherry hardwood floors in kitchen/dining area. Newer roof and windows w/screens; 2c garage built in 2002. Recently remodeled kitchen and both baths. Porcelain tile walls and floors in baths. Plumbin and electrical have been updated. Priced to sell fast.”
that doesn’t look Victorian in the least. It looks like a 1950s aluminum siding bad dream.
It’s so funny to see houses in the old neighborhood go for those amounts. Just half a mile west is Six Corners. Anyone wanting to spend half a mil on this ought to first take a drive through that once vibrant neighborhood shopping area - and note all the vacant storefronts.
Six corners used to be quite the shopping district back in the days….now it’s nearly vacant. There are few stores remaining and they’re all fly-by-night cell phone stores, currency exchanges and I think there is a comic book shop. All the shopping traffic is diverted a couple of hundred feet to the east - Jewel, Sears and Blockbuster. Because there is parking. No parking was the death of that intersection.
Anyway, there is pretty nice looking old art deco office building that was converted to condos at the height of the boom. http://www.kleeplaza.com/ Prices are competitive but waaaaaaaaaaaay to much for a condo on a functionally dead corner. Craigslist has some of them for rent now. I might consider living there if I could rent for like $800 bucks or something.
Half a mil for that POS? There is plenty of room on the down side for Chicago housing.
Yikes. That’s “priced to sell”?
Earlier this year, I posted a listing for a real Victorian on a double lot in the same neighborhood — it was selling for a little north of 400K. It was pretty nice, and it seemed like a competitive price.
But the delusion still runs strong in many places.
Start Drilling By Robert Samuelson
What keeps these areas (untapped oil reserves) closed are exaggerated environmental fears, strong prejudice against oil companies, and sheer stupidity.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/start_drilling.html
I just love the title of this
And an article from Reuters that pretty much says Samuelson is full of shit.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN2934033020080429?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true
Well the new oil may not have been available in time to make a difference at this moment (if approved in 2002), but it would be a helluva lot closer than it is right now!
This thinking reminds me of an event that I experienced several years ago. I attended an engineering meeting at a large industrial customer site where we were planning a turnaround schedule for a major portion of the facility. A critical path item in the schedule was the replacement of an aging and deteriorated electric motor on a large pump. When the project manager asked the purchasing agent about the expected delivery date for the replacement motor, the agent replied that the best quoted delivery at time of request was too long to meet the schedule so he did not order it!
The point is that Bush has allowed drilling like crazy and ANWAR would have added a small extra supply. If instead, we had increased fuel standards in cars, promoted conservation (you know that thing that Cheney called only a moral virture, but ineffective) and tried true alternative energy like solar (NOT ethanol, Bush’s favorite) we would have been helped far more than any short term little bump from ANWAR. And I won’t even mention Global Climate change.
“…President Bush’s claim ignores the primary causes behind record high oil prices: a cheap dollar, high demand from China and India, and speculators driving the price up. Drilling and sullying the Arctic would not address any of these causes of high oil prices,” said Weiss.”
What if: All the SUV’s sold in the good ol’ US of A …for the last ten years…got 30 mile per gallon…how many gallons would that have left in the “barrel-is half-full” side of the supply argument?
We’re going to run out of oil at some point anyway. Why not start working to change and adapt our infrastructure to this impending reality, rather than postponing the inevitable for a few more years - and in the process, ruining one of the few pristine natural areas left in the US?
Oh, yeah, the oil companies would make less money if we did that…
The Tax Rebate Explained
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north622.html
Analysts, Incentives, and Exaggeration
Date: 2008-04-01
By: Timothy Shields
abstract
“Sell-side analysts are compensated, at least in part, by brokerage commissions. These commissions create an incentive to bias forecasts to generate trade. Thus, analysts have clear economic incentives to deceive and traders have economic incentives to detect deception. Prior analytical theories of information transmission games starkly predict that there will always be some deception (with trade) at best and uninformative messages (and no trade) at worst when the sender’s and receiver’s incentives are not aligned. Prior experimental evidence of information transmission games show senders do elect to deceive, although they send messages more informative than theory predicts. Likewise, receivers rely more upon messages than theory predicts. Can behavior that deviates from prediction be explained by normative social behavior, such as trust and honesty? Alternatively, are subjects boundedly rational, failing to sufficiently consider other players’ incentives when predicting their decisions? To answer these questions, I design and conduct an experiment to investigate whether forecasting and trading behaviors are best explained by analytical theory, limited strategic sophistication, or social norms. The experimental results confirm a majority of subjects adopt dishonest forecasting strategies, but at the same time, a majority of subjects adopts trusting trading strategies. Additionally, subjects do not appear to revise trading behavior despite evidence of deceptive forecasts. The results suggest subjects’ behavior within the setting is better explained by limited strategic sophistication than by social normative behavior or sequential rationality…The results suggest subjects’ behavior within the setting is better explained by limited strategic sophistication than by social normative behavior or sequential rationality.”
http://www.cirano.qc.ca/pdf/publication/2008s-11.pdf
caution 51 pg pdf
This was the subject of Mr. Shields dissertation. And mentioning dissertations, did any one notice that Mr. Alan Greenspan’s came to light last week. In his 1976 paper he talks about using the housing market to stimulate the economy.
sellin the rip on GM or stay the course?
Staying until wrong.
Some dude on CNBC this morning used your comment from a few weeks ago: they’re making boatloads of money overseas.
Same philosophy:
Buy what china buys, sell what China sells.
GM is the largest auto dealer in China, the most desired car in China is the Escalade. Screw the Jap and Euro POS.
How you doing Vozzie?
I was dead wrong on Countrywide, too much ‘dark matter’. But I deserve GM.
watching the deterioration in the A/R, sales tappering off at -17% YoY…..looks like 2003 sales numbers
Reading Tim Willocks “The Religion” again.
I am re-reading the entire blog:
Baghdad Burning
Girl Blog from Iraq… let’s talk war, politics and occupation.
http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/
A beautifully written documentary.
“…No one would lie about something like this simply to undermine the Baghdad security operation. That can be done simply by calculating the dozens of dead this last week. Or by writing about the mass detentions of innocents, or how people are once again burying their valuables so that Iraqi and American troops don’t steal them….”
February 20, 2007
my preference for the virtual world of the 1562 siege of Malta is preferable to the realities of the 2008 siege of Bagdad.
Once again, virtual trumps reality…especially for my delicate pshyche.
TMM bloodletting, problemo?
I don’t think so, but I am waiting for the written report. I want to see the pictures. They should have made a fortune.
1565, my bad
“US house prices
Published: April 29 2008 14:43 | Last updated: April 29 2008 19:20
Pity the person who bought a house in Santa Barbara county, California, one year ago. Since then the value of their home has dropped almost $6,000 – per week, that is. The median house price there has dropped 34 per cent since March 2007, according to the California Association of Realtors.
Bricks and slaughter
Plunging prices are not confined to obvious bubble markets such as California. In the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller house price index, the pain is deep and widespread. Las Vegas suffered the biggest fall – 23 per cent, year on year – of the 20 cities tracked. But 19 posted a drop. Charlotte, in North Carolina, eked out a 1.5 per cent increase. This, however, reflected timing: Charlotte’s market peaked last, in September. Exposed to financial services – Bank of America and Wachovia both call it home – Charlotte will not escape unscathed.
With US home prices down 13 per cent year on year compared with a 6 per cent drop in the early 1990s, some hope the worst is over. Such a view is premature. The Case-Shiller index is a rolling average, so February’s data include deals closed in December, where prices may have been agreed in November. Credit and macro-economic conditions have worsened since then.
Falling prices are also yet to have an impact on the overhang of 2.3m unsold homes. Merrill Lynch says a normal level would be about half that total. Landlords who hoped that fewer home sales would boost rents may also be disappointed: the rental vacancy rate jumped to 10 per cent in the first quarter.
Flow of funds data put the value of household real estate at the end of 2007 at $20,155bn. Roughly calculated, the Case-Shiller index’s 5 per cent drop since then equates to $1,000bn wiped out in the space of two months – almost 10 times the size of the federal tax rebate. Much of that will be saved rather than spent.
The housing market’s continuing slide will strengthen doves among Federal Reserve officials meeting on Wednesday. A rate cut might boost short-term sentiment. But America’s swathe of empty, devalued houses illustrates the deep-seated problems at the heart of the economy.”
Copied in full from LEX -link may not work subscription only
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/38130794-15f2-11dd-880a-0000779fd2ac.html
Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet
Struggling with mounting debt and rising prices, faced with the toughest economic times since the early 1990s, Americans are selling prized possessions online and at flea markets at alarming rates.
To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother’s dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful — families forced to part with heirlooms.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_bi_ge/cashing_out_the_attic
And secondhand buyers want better deals now as well, driving prices down. Secondhand merchandise online is going for 25 to 35 percent below what it commanded a year ago, estimated Brian Riley, senior analyst at research firm The TowerGroup
DEFLATION - in everything you don’t need
WAIT! You mean I have to PAY people to drag away my old stuff now? That’s… un-American!
The one year is back:
In addition, to meet growing financing needs, the Treasury announced that it is bringing back the 52-week T-bill.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF4DA3AD8%2D049B%2D45A4%2D9458%2DCD1C3A8CC10E%7D&siteid=mktw
“to meet growing financing needs”
so when are rates going to go up? or is the government the only one borrowing ?
One former affluent customer is now unemployed and had to unload Hermes leather jackets and Versace jeans and silk shirts.
No sympathy for this poser. Funny how they were rubbing in my face a few years back because I remained financially conservative (similiar income). Now I can pay my bills, and well, articles says best. Tied to housing of course.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_bi_ge/cashing_out_the_attic
tick, tick
Iran: Iran, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has completely stopped conducting oil transactions in U.S. dollars, a top Oil Ministry official said Wednesday, a concerted attempt to reduce reliance on Washington at a time of tension over Tehran’s nuclear program and suspected involvement in Iraq.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/30/business/ME-FIN-Iran-Oil.php
Mexico City (AP): US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has said sending a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf could serve as a “reminder’ to Iran, but he said it is not an escalation of force.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/000200804301001.htm
What’s the word here…..oh yeah, “Escalation”
We would do well to get in bed with India, for all its problems, it is still the largest titular democracy in the world. It’s the only country that really scares China population wise.
Just an observation:
Since November of 2007 Citigroup has gone to the money pits for $40B. Does anybody believe they will not be looking for more moneys?
I posted a link on this yesterday to Paul in Jax, but Citi still has upwards of 12billion in pier loans, apart from other losses. And another nice note, Pandit’s Old Lane Hedge fund rolled it’s losses onto Citi’s books when Pandit took over as CEO. Another hit for the Citi shareholders.
Citigroup is increasing its dash for cash by 1.5 Billion…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAfV7RVqGFA4&refer=home
Git it while it good.
see today’s news
If addressed to this simple country boy, I was including it in my Citigroup numbers.
Did you check out the bit I posted for you late last night Tx - the perfect attire for all the fair young maidens!
Does anybody have any good news to report?
Maybe we can start a reverse trend of positive news, since this blog is the new oracle. Or is more bad news a comin’?
I’m just saying.
investing, renting, shopping, driving, eating, none of it is safe.
Curious……rather than publicly offering to buy 20 million Ford shares at $8.50 (I know he’s at the point of disclosure requirements), why wouldn’t he just keep his mouth shut and keep buying right now, since the price hadn’t gotten close to that point ’til now??
One cannot go over 4.9% of ownership without SEC notification, this would put the mope at 5.6%. Cheaper in the long run than buying on the open market.
He being Kerkorian….sorry.
While suffering from my drug-allergy-induced semi-coma this weekend, I had a dream (sorry for the long post):
Date: 4-30-08 PC (Post Crash)
PCE Announces Release of New HBB Action Figures
Post-Crash Entertainment announced a new release of HBB Action Figures today, an event that fans of the movie “Raiders of the Lost HBB Papyri” have been anxiously awaiting. Lines of people wrapped around several blocks of downtown Old New York, waiting for the PCE Mall to open.
The movie was based on what are now called the HBB Papyri, a set of hermetically sealed paper printouts from the year 2008 PreC (Pre Crash) that give a day-by-day blow of the beginnings of the Great Crash. The tube the papers were sealed in was found in a dry cave in SE Utah and had a note from an enigmatic figure called “Lost in Utah” who appears to have been an archaeologist from that era. This person appears to have been a minor figure in the drama unfolded on the HBB Papyri, which were found by an amateur geologist looking for dinosaur bone. The geologist claims to be a direct descendent of one of the HBB figures, Iftheshoefits.
The Papyri were of utmost interest to archaeologists, sociologists, psychologists, economists, and students of the Great Crash, as they appear to not only detail financial and economic events of that time, but to also include pithy and wry comments regarding such events, giving insight into those most interesting of times. Extensive psychological studies reconstructed the HBB characters for the movie, resulting in such stars as the ever-popular Olympiagal, NYCityBoy, Palmetto, Prof Bear, TXChick, Spike66, CarrieAnn, and of course, the star, Ben Jones (who some surmise may have been related to the epic Indiana Jones).
The HBB Action Figures include all these stars, as well as many others. (Included with each is the government-mandated Short Course in Smart Finance disk that is now required for any purchase over $50.)
Really funny, Lost
but this part kind of scared me:
“Extensive psychological studies reconstructed the HBB characters”
CarrieAnn, that comment was funnier than my original post (thx for humoring me
)
Real estate business deals gone bad?
Business partner suspected of ordering a hit on slain San Ramon man
SAN RAMON — A business partner is suspected of ordering the killing of a San Ramon man found shot to death Sunday night, police said Tuesday.
….
Police arrested Reginald J. Robinson, 32, at his El Sobrante home Monday night on suspicion of soliciting the murder of 42-year-old Kashmir Singh Billon, said San Ramon police Lt. Dan Pratt.
….
Robinson and Billon were business partners dealing with mortgages and real estate, Pratt said, but he stopped short of saying what may have happened between the two that might have led to the killing.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/ci_9096926
Econ 101 should be required to run for president. Clinton and McCain want to roll back the gas tax??
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080430/pl_nm/usa_politics_gastax_economists_dc;_ylt=AkF2sSdpcRdyc6BujUBMrLSs0NUE
Economists said that since refineries cannot increase their supply of gasoline in the space of a few summer months, lower prices will just boost demand and the benefits will flow to oil companies, not consumers.
“You are just going to push up the price of gas by almost the size of the tax cut,” said Eric Toder, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center in Washington.
Obama criticized the plan as pure politics and said the only way to lower the price of gas is to use less oil.
Now if we could get the same kind of clarity on housing.
Don’t interrupt the pandering with inconvenient facts. We are trying to have a farce…er, an election here. Besides, our roads and bridges are in such a fine state they need no repair this year.
For those of you interested in Hawaii real estate, sounds like the islands are having a crises since Aloha shut down its cargo operations Monday (over 80% of cargo to and from the outer islands went via Aloha, fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, etc.). Hawaiian Air can’t handle the cargo demand. Love’s Bakery (who typically would ship an entire plane load a day) is shipping baked goods via LA to try to get bread to the outer islands, but that’s not working. Shippers are having to load the planes themselves if they want their goods to fly via smaller cargo planes, which are hard to come by. Seems like the islands are always hard hit by any type of recession. Tourism down there at least 10%.
http://tinyurl.com/52oq2
the link is dead
it’s the front page of the Honolulu Star, just google it
The Hawaii of my childhood is dead. Even my old street is just a 100 ft long concrete strip leftover under the H1…
And Pele is mad.
Meanwhile the good residents of Kauai have done everything in their power to block service by a car ferry corporation. Just why is it necessary to put loaves of bread on an airliner & fly it a few hundred miles? The Hawaiian Islands were originally discovered & populated by mariners, not airmen. Ships are still available & are far cheaper than airplanes. Give me a break.
An anecdote for you, so take it for what it’s worth.
My wife and I have been shopping for a sofa for the last couple of months, trying to find a great deal. Spurred on by my wife’s intuition (”DH, I have a BAD feeling. We must go to the store tonight!”), we went to one of the regional furniture superstores last night that has a sofa we’ve been looking at.
The store just recently raised prices on almost all of their furniture from anywhere between 20% to 35%!!! Fortunately, the wife’s shrewd bartering skills got us the pre-increase price.
I think it’s going to get ugly out there.
I’d just wait for the going out of business sale that is just around the corner for many furniture stores. HELOC money is gone, food and fuel costs eating up pay check. You can bet that people will be buying less furniture. The days of redecorating the living room every couple of years are gone.
No offense but your wife is a dingbat.
She responds to the fear meme. Marketeer’s wet dream.
What’s the worst that would’ve happened? You lived without a sofa for another month?
Gimme a break! Nothing discretionary of that nature is going up.
FPSS-You kill me….coffee all over my screen!!!!
I’ve watched ‘discretionary’ furniture for 6 months now, and the prices have ONLY gone up, even while the deals that the retailers have offered have gotten weaker. I’ve talked to wholesalers, retailers, former retailers, and anyone who will listen to me in an effort to get information on what will happen with furniture prices. All I hear is rising cost of inputs into furniture. And yet, I’m bemused because I’m seeing vacant parking lots at stores, idle salespeople.
I admit that our time horizon for purchasing this sofa is probably too short and we’d do better to wait until deflation rides in, but at this point it’s time to move on with our lives and stop dedicating so much of our life to saving a couple bucks on a sofa. Besides, you should see the lumpy 20 year old wreck we got for free that currently haunts our living room now. Sitting on it is an exercise in forbearance.
Fine. Then get the freakin’ sofa.
Don’t be a weepin’ and wailin’ like a buncha Baptists at a funeral.
Nobody cares if costs are rising when the stories are empty, forking out rents and salaries, and the populace that this supposed to be buying these products currently doesn’t even have a pot to pee in.
Bug,
you can order any top of the line furniture from dealers in south carolina…henredon, baker, etc. You order down-filled or whatever, and choose the fabric. Skip the sales tax, get it about 10% above wholesale. I got a Baker sofa from there about 6 years ago…the only additional cost was $100 bucks for delivery, which included having the guys bring it up the elevator and arrange it in my living room. Cheaper than delivery from any store, including Crate and Barrel midtown. Check out some of the sites, and do a cost of delivery (which has probably gone up vs. sales tax). Never pay retail.
I did spend a few hours searching online, but, oddly enough, I just never found anything that approached what I was looking for at a better price than what I was seeing in the brick and mortars.
As for your advice about paying retail, this is exactly the same advice that I received from a couple ex-furniture salesmen as well. And yet, physical stores were simply not willing to budge beyond 10% off retail. They were quite content to watch me walk out the door.
Demand looks down to me, but I don’t see the deflation. What’s holding up the prices?
Bug, don’t worry about justifying your life to a bunch of compulsive savers - even the best among us has their purchasing secrets (I don’t even want to talk about some real faux pas I’ve made - try buying a couple of Arabian horses, at least a sofa doesn’t eat)
I guess I can see how it might read like I’m trying to justify my purchases, which may be true on a subconscious level. But my main goal is to explain my thought processes and what information I had to work with so I can get more information and make better decisions in the future.
And, the enigma of retailers raising prices even as their sales have slumped that has me stumped.
It made you buy, didn’t it? And their margins were higher, weren’t they?
And they be trying to capture the market that’s “forced” to upgrade to sell. It’s possible. The thought process of the average FB eludes me still.
Anyway, if you quality of life is upgraded, and you can afford it, you’ve spent the money, and hopefully are happier. That’s all that matters.
Bug,
I just want to save you some money. If I can give you some info that will save you cash, it’s all good. Folks have passed along tips and info to me, so it’s just good karma.
This is the place I bought my sofa from…it’s been around forever. If you don’t see what you like, try a place called Rose, also has a good rep and a long history.
http://www.boyles.com/about-boyles-furniture/boyles-discount-furniture.cfm
Rice speculators, don’t let this happen to you…
“Lost the considerable fortune he had built up in real-estate speculation by trying to corner the rice market in San Francisco ”
http://www.zpub.com/sf/history/nort.html
Now I finally get your name! What an amazing character - reminds me of John Otto, the founder of Colorado National Monument. He worked endlessly, with no pay, to create trails. He would light giant bonfires on the rims to celebrate patriotic days. He was taken to court to prove he was insane and was found sane, from then on, he carried the papers around with him and would tell people he was sane, he could prove it, could they?
He named many of the park’s formations for presidents or with a patriotic theme, like Independence Monument and Liberty Cap. He raised flags wherever he could. One of his first flags was atop Liberty Cap on July 4th, 1909. He was loony enough to scale Independence Monument, the park’s tallest freestanding tower at 450 feet high, to raise a six- by twelve-foot flag atop its flat summit on Flag Day and Independence Day in 1911.
Truth be said, there’s only one variety of rice not worth keeping…
Condoleeza
The Inland Empire is serious about recycling…
“The rampant theft of copper and other metals in Southern California has begun hitting Inland Empire freeways hard, leaving motorists in increasing danger as traffic signals and lights in underpasses and rest areas have gone dark, law enforcement and Caltrans officials said Tuesday.”
“Thieves also have swiped guardrails and irrigation systems along roadways.”
“The aluminum bleachers at the Kessler Park Little League field in Bloomington were stolen last summer. Bronze plaques were taken from the facade of the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands. The pool at the Boys & Girls Club of San Bernardino was temporarily closed because all its metal fixtures had been stolen.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-metal30apr30,1,2199437.story
Hey Lad, I mean Emp, I went out to the Green River Missile Range the other day, an Area 51 type of place where they shot off test missiles to White Sands in the 60s and 70s. Some of the old poles had been freshly chopped down and decapitated. I’m sure it was metal bounty hunters. Sad, as the place it pretty historic and has a sort of Cold War panache about it…
http://austin.craigslist.org/rfs/662173274.html
523k foreclosure in Driftwood , TX. Driftwood is nearish to Austin, but it would still be a pain in the neck daily commute …
fugly
I dunno, doesn’t look any different from lots of other Texas subdivision houses.
I’d certainly live there if the price was right and the commute short.
However, I’m no fan of bathing in front of a picture window. I have yet to figure that type of thing out. Maybe if I were atop a high ridge overlooking the Cascade range, but not a Texas yard of brown grass and scrub oak.
The main thing that weirds me out is that room with the three big columns plopped in the middle. That’s goofy.
Did some errands this morning and saw this awful billboard on Erie Blvd in Dewitt/Syracuse where all the low end shopping and eateries are located as well as the Shoppingtown Mall:
The words “NATIONAL MARKET” in huge type were superimposed over a “sad” face.
The words “CNY MARKET” in huge type were superimposed over a “happy” face.
Yeah, so buy at the top just because we’re behind in the slowdown. Do they think there’s a secret cone of silence over the Salt City that is going to keep the bad ole worldwide recession/depression from hurting us. All the CNY counties went negative in March! Both sales and median price!
Yet the Larry Yun minions keep on spinning it.
Note: Funny thing was the billboard was at an intersection next to a “gentlemen’s club”. Now why would they position it there?
Privatize the easy money (ie insurance companies insure the healthy) socialize the problems.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a6WWom4AfKLw&refer=home
The one advantage of the employer based system is that employers are more active in bargaining for lower cost insurance and in requesting better service than individual employees. When company X with 5000 employees asks the insurance company to fix something they do, when an individual person asks for the same he gets the middle finger and is shown the door.
It’s different here! (Sedona)
Current Sedona Real Estate News
The Sedona market is picking up - with many more buyers “kicking tires” and making deals. One of the major differences between Sedona and most other markets is that the Sedona real estate market is not driven by employment - and there were far fewer investors in this area than most areas of the USA. This creates a lower volatility of pricing. Few sellers really need to sell urgently - and few people purchase homes because of job transfers. We also have the advantage of a strong demand from retirees. As baby boomers select their area to retire in, Sedona comes out high on many lists. This lull in the market is a great opportunity to find your future home.
Those of you waiting for another 10% drop in prices may be surprised to know that a 1% increase in interest rates will wipe out all of a potential 10% drop in prices. It is my opinion that interests rates are more likely to substantially increase than prices are likely to decrease greatly.
So…it’s different there?
Let me see…the market’s picking up, but there’s a lull in the market?
Yup, it’s different in Sedona, the laws of logic have been sucked into one of those harmonica convergence vortex thingys.
You know….that damn SKF was always good for a 2-5 point gain in a day whenever it went under 100…..’til I bought some. Sheesh.
50% short via index options.
It doesn’t help my secret fear of being some kind of contrarian indicator.
You’re playing with a mighty bucking bronco there, Tex.
Yeah, I know.
Scalped 1000 X $1.50 this morning and another $3 this afternoon. Downside risk is extremely minimal here IMO. Looking for another reentry point.
I’ve gotten that same $97 and change entry about 4 times in the last couple of days. This time I’m holding on to it.
I got in at 98.25 and am hanging on.
IMHO 140 is a good short term target, 200 is where it should be by the time the dust settles.
Well we got the .25% point and a choppy rally in the Dow and dollar with oil taking another haircut. Let’s see what holds thru the end of the session. I’d have preferred no cut, but it looks like maybe the Fed is waking up a bit???? Hey I can dream….
So I opined last night that the odds were rapidly diminishing of getting to 13,000 on the DJIA. LOL Well it got to 13,000 and change for 2 minutes then fell apart. - Next stop 11,000.
what is expected growth? The emerging market who suffers the madness of shortage and difficult inflationary pressure while America leads the way to a “sustainable zero population growth lifestyle in a de-leveraging deflationary debt spiral.”
say it again, “Sustainable zero-population growth lifestyle in an age of information as money in the global industrialized financial complex”
Keep throwing up markers, cuz this hillbilly loves when you post especially when you are on the mean pills.
Here’s an interesting Craigslist ad. I visited this Morgan Creek community just the other week. The community, which just started selling its McMansions in 2005, is in trouble. High percentage of foreclosures (most still in process according to trulia), large unlandscaped yards, and a lot of vacant lots.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/662462009.html
It looks like someone is trying to stay afloat by renting out their McMansion for $4200 a month. “Sorry, no pets, 3rd party vouchers, or indoor smoking. We will consider Bankruptcy, Foreclosure or Short Sale situations.”
That’s equal opportunity!! They will consider people who have gone bankrupt and/or foreclosed! I’m guessing that this is someone creatively trying to save their own butt, by offering to rent out their McMansion to their next door neighbor who just lost his home.
Roseville! Hey Casey, a house for you!
Just heard on Glen Beck Show with Dick Army.
Angry Renters was the subject. No bailout for home-debtors and poor lenders. Great !!