Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Accidental landlords? “Susannah Moss’s trendy one-bedroom Adams Morgan condo, in a converted warehouse, has become a potential money drain. Moss contracted to buy the unit in early 2005. She is trying to sell the condo but has been hampered by the housing slump. Three months after putting it on the market, she has yet to receive an offer. Now Moss, 33, wants to find a tenant for her condo while she waits out the economy.”
“But the condominium association allows only 20 percent of the units to be leased at once, so Moss is on a waiting list. If she tries to rent the unit without permission, she could face a $500-a-month fine.”
“Moss is not the only owner in her building who wants to become a landlord, and the issue has created tension. The debate ‘has created division within the community, and tempers and feelings are running very high,’ said Moss, who also is a real estate agent.”
Lower prices? “The once-invincible condominium market in downtown Boston is weakening Sales of condos in the 12 core markets of Boston, from the North End to the Back Bay, the South End to South Boston, plunged 22.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. Prices slid nearly 33 percent on Beacon Hill and 21 percent in the North End.”
“‘It’s a huge decline’ in sales, said Debra Taylor Blair, president of Listing Information Network. ‘Downtown is slowing down. People aren’t as liquid. They’re not as easily able to move or refinance.’”
Builder troubles? “A depression in the home-building market has claimed a Fishers builder and continues to hammer locally based Davis Homes LLC—a powerhouse for years that now is facing foreclosure on about 80 home sites.”
“Central Indiana is faring better than many of the nation’s housing markets, but better does not mean well. Sales figures don’t offer much optimism, either.”
“‘It was quite a shock to me, as it was to our employees,’ said Peter Ruffing, Day-Marc’s former president. ‘It was not a message or a decision I was prepared for.’”
“‘For one weekend only,’ the radio advertisement says, ‘We are offering massive discounts on all of our models.’”
“Robert Millay, owner of Fox Valley Homes, and his wife came up with the innovative but risky approach as a way to launch the company’s 161-lot housing development…on Neenah’s south side. ‘The market was so bad the last couple of years that we thought we would attempt something that no one has ever attempted before,’ Millay said Friday. ‘It will make or break us. There is no in-between.’”
Market fallout? “Caroline Rohrer wants to sell her southeast Las Vegas florist business, but she’s noticed a big problem with local buyers. ‘There aren’t any,’ she said.”
“Local businesses listed in the first quarter posted median revenue of $385,000, compared with $509,500 a year earlier. Annual cash flow was $100,000, down from $135,606 in the first three months of 2007.”
“Business consultants cited several reasons for the decline in sale prices. Some factors relate to population trends. Others, like much of today’s economic news, hark back to the faltering housing market.”
“For many business buyers, home equity traditionally composed a big portion of the cash they used to close a deal, said John Paglia, a finance professor at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif.. Since the real estate market peaked in 2005, though, local homeowners have lost tens of thousands of dollars in equity on average.”
“The median local home price was $243,169 in March, down 20.3 percent from the same month a year ago, said the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. Also, banks, bearing the fallout from exotic loans they made to homeowners, feel a little less charitable today. So it’s tougher to borrow now for virtually any purpose.”
“‘Banks are like turtles, and you know what happens when you scare turtles,’ said Roger Dunivan, a counselor with the Service Corps of Retired Executives.”
I overheard a conversation this week. It was a construction guy telling someone about having his pay per hour cut back involuntarily. He said that it would only leave him $50/week after bills to live on. It looks like it’s gonna get rough, IMO.
Excess housing capacity, excess financial services consultants, excess construction related jobs, excess equity.
This is the age of excess. The only deficit is in money and common sense.
This morning on Bloomberg TV they were talking about the fantastic potential of the stock market. The dope making the bullish (remember you can’t spell “bull$hit” without “bulli$h”) statements said, “housing starts can’t get any lower.” He stated that they are already down so low that there is no way to decrease.
I would have loved to hit him with Ben’s points. The amount of overbuilding means that the housing industry could stop altogether for several years and not fall behind the little real demand there is.
The losers on Fox Noose Channel were talking about local governments to buy houses to bulldoze. I think Jonas Max Ferris (somebody needs to punch this guy) stated that houses could be given to people that have been foreclosed in one area. I was dozing in and out of sleep while this crap was going on. I didn’t have the strength to turn it off. What an awful feeling that is.
Buy over-priced crap you cant afford, destroying the US economy in the process, and get a free house from the government. Sounds about right in this bizzaro world.
” I didn’t have the strength to turn it off. What an awful feeling that is. ”
At least we can watch it and laugh.
I remember watching the tech wreck, it was worse.
Boy, get a dog, they won’t let you sleep in past 6:45.
I spoke to a RE investor/developer who lives in Japan. He claimed that all this credit/economic mess would be resolved by the end of the year. That banks are just over-reacting, and the economic fundamentals are all sound, so everything would return to normal. I kept saying, “really? how interesting.”
“The only deficit is in money and common sense.”
Buffett: “When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can get interesting.”
The opposite is also true: When you combine ready cash with common sense the consequences can get interesting.
A cousin of mine and her husband owned a business that foundered in the late ’70s. They promptly adjusted their lifestyle, moved to where they could find work and took humble jobs to get by. Not once in all the intervening years have they ever complained about anything. They just accepted that they were responsible for themselves and dealt with it. I admire them immensely for that.
That WAS an American tradition - similar, I suppose, to the British “stiff upper lip.” But with a lot of help from televised media and the NEA, subsequent generations have learned that “blame” is one of the most useful words in their language, and “someone else’s fault” one of the most useful phrases.
Reminds me of the contemporary study of a borough/area in NYC where black residents significantly out-earn white residents. Turned out it is because most of them immigrated from Jamaica and other poor Caribbean economies; their typical response when asked about the numbers was, “In (my former country), if you didn’t work, you starved. No one bailed you out.”
RE: In (my former country), if you didn’t work, you starved. No one bailed you out.”
Hunger or the fear of it, is the catalyst of capitalism.
Hunger or the fear of it, is the catalyst of capitalism.
As opposed to the catalyst of communism: fear of exile to the gulag or violent death. Because the state knows what’s best for you, me, and everyone.
I taught my kids that blame doesn’t matter. You dig in and do what has to be done and later you can figure out what went wrong. Comes in handy as work, too. When there’s a deadline and someone hasn’t done their part, 1st thing you have to do is get it done then you can find out what went wrong.
$50 bucks a week? What’s that, maybe 3 mickeys of Jack Black?
Lower prices? “The once-invincible condominium market in downtown Boston is weakening Sales of condos in the 12 core markets of Boston, from the North End to the Back Bay, the South End to South Boston, plunged 22.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. Prices slid nearly 33 percent on Beacon Hill and 21 percent in the North End.”
“‘It’s a huge decline’ in sales, said Debra Taylor Blair, president of Listing Information Network. ‘Downtown is slowing down. People aren’t as liquid. They’re not as easily able to move or refinance.’”
*****
OT - Did Manny Ramirez ever sell that condo?
In any case, time for a celebration!
beaconst - where art thou?
What happened to that invincible Boston market and all those egghead PhD’s you worked with (MIT?) who said housing would never go down?
They must have had NAR Phd’s!
celebfan1000 -
Did you buy any more houses in that stellar Boston market?
crashmaster101 -
Your model of major declines is looking better every day!
Things continue to slow around here…Inventory
Increasing weekly…jobs softening in the service sector….Pent up inventory just waiting for a turn to come to market….
scdave -
I was down in Santa Clara for a day this week and I’ve seen even more commercial space up “For Lease or Sale”.
I can’t believe these commercials guys are going to weather another downturn very well (with 2 in 1 decade; kind of like 2 for the price of 1 - Many thanks to Alan Greenspan and the ‘Do Nothing’ Fed!)
Also - did your friend spend last summer in SF and bike all over the place? How did that work out? Just wondering…
sf jack…..
The vacant space here is quite scary combined with the under utilized space it quite disturbing…….There is some kind of disconnect going on that I can’t quite figure out because I would have expected more fall out locally….I am in a very defensive posture right now…I expect things to get significantly worse….
Still have all the info on SF that you provided me…Thank You….The bike rider is me and I am still looking forward to doing that….I think I am just going to move up there for three months or so…Maybe get a part time job at some local pub…I keep you posted on my plans…
I have a friend that bought a condo in Southie in 2005. This is one of the only FBs I really feel bad for. She is so sweet. She is hardworking. Unfortunately, she feels she “has” to own. Why does anybody have to own a condo? They are just apartments. She paid $380k. I bet it is down $100k. Her 20 percent down payment has gone up in smoke. She will be okay but I feel awful for her.
Tell her nycboy her $100K+ a year job should be very comforting to her. as she rebuilds her bank account for her next down payment.
She is one of the sweetest people I know. I would never be sarcastic to her about her finances. If she was an arrogant jerk it would be a different story but then again we wouldn’t be friends.
“Sweet” usually means a pair of Double Ds
Really? I’m so out of touch. I just thought it meant that she was nice.
I like the way TXchick thinks…..
Why do you like the way TXchick thinks? She was saying that men can only see women for their bodies . . . not their personalities . . . I’m glad NYC Boy isn’t so superficial.
You need large breasts in Texas because of the large hair.
imho, men never say mean things about Dbl D’s..just the opposite!
In fact, just happened today. Friend emailed pics of her eldest (31) daughter who did some Modeling pics. Um, the blouse couldn’t be cut any lower. Honest. She is beautiful, just like her mom, but I wondered (inmymind) what kind of Modeling those pics were for?
Anyway, the other friend just responded.
“Nice cachongas”
And there ya have it.
I think we all know a FB or two who simply made a bad decision based on what they heard (and continue to hear) from the MSM. But the greedy, arrogant, entitled ones are by far the majority that I have met.
Doubt anyone at MIT said anything about housing never going down. Even in the economics dept., we’re a little more intelligent than that.
beaconst gave everyone here the impression a couple of years back that he was in close with some Nobel Prize winning economists who work in the Beacon Street area. He stopped posting about the time the Boston market started crashing.
I really miss beaconst, as he was among the most arrogant and confident trolls to post here, always touting his new era theories and telling us how off base we were. He was one of my favorite mockery targets.
Well, I think we’re finally seeing real price pressure in the “inner” bay area. Despite what you all may have heard, this hasn’t really been true in the better areas. That said, every new listing that appeared on Alameda (94501) this week was a fee-adjusted-loss at least, and many were real +100k losses on their 2005/2006 pricing. Compared to the rest of the country, this isn’t bad (or good from my perspective), but nice to see that the big slide has begun. Sun layoffs (announced thu) + massive state cuts including UCB/UCSF custs + financial sector losses are the first round. IMHO, it will take one more quarter before we see widespread tech losses (maybe two quarters). Not until then will we see real devaluation in inner bay area real estate I think. On the rental side, we still see a story of division. A property mgt firm in Alameda reported to me that the property rental market is the tightest they have ever seen (for SFRs). Since the rent multiplier can’t keep up with the price of SFRs in any way, you are not going to see people try to survive for a bit on rentals - they have to just walk away (since you’re upside down by at least 2k a month if you bought in the last three years w/ no money down). I would guesstimate that rents from SFRs are up 30-40% YOY. However, out in Lafayette/Orinda/Walnut Creek/Concord, rents are cheap! and the houses are plentiful. I don’t want to live there, but it’s tempting at these prices.
Finally, Bay Area crime continues to grow exponentially and the question is: what happens to the “new urbanism” families in Berkeley/Rockridge/Temescal/LakeM/Downtown when the lose faith in the ability of their cities to protect them. This is not overstated - check out the neighborhood watch mailing lists for these communities on yahoo - we are nearing a point of significant outmigration from these areas unless something changes - and there is no reason to think it is going to get better giving city and county budget issues.
So when you say crime is growing exponentially, you mean it is doubling every year?
Unlikely.
To me “exponential” means to any power other than 1. Doesn’t have to be 2…doesn’t have to be an integer. Compound interest is exponential growth.
Compound interest is exponential growth.
No, actually compound interest is geometric growth.
And the difference between the two would be…?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
Why everything except 1? How do you feel about .5 or -1.68? Let your real feelings out.
You know, 1 raised to certain powers doesn’t mean the resulting n roots necessarily equals 1.
Annual Parade of Homes in my little city today. I see people lined up two deep to look at houses priced five times the median local income and up. Prices are not dropping here but the inventory is building.
Speaking of scared banks, here’s more good news for Countrywide.
http://tinyurl.com/6pw5ue
I knew it was coming, because of HBB, and it isn’t going to be pretty. Just taking longer in some areas, but as we all are, sure as the day is long, the primes are going to wreak havoc.
What an article.
icky.
I’ve been checking Realty Trac weekly for the last year(Suffolk county, Long Island, NY). A year ago there was about 1 page(10 notices per page) of new notices of default, per week. Since the beginning of this year, there’s been a surge of NOD’s. We’ve averaging about 10 to 20 pages per week. Over 20 pages for this week. It looks like a tsunami of foreclosures is coming to Long Island.
RE: What happened to that invincible Boston market
All of these old eastern seaboard major cities rely on primma donna ignorance and snob and snot hype to market their overpriced condo’s while the utility and transport infrastructures which serve them are rotting away due to municipal negligent of maintenance.
Just last week a major aging water main blew in Beantown’s financial district contaminating the area’s natural gas pipeline’s which subsequently had to be shut-down.
Adios heat and HW to all the hoidy-toidy residential dwellers and
main street businesses.
One financial worker considered his “week” devastated because the deli where he purchased his daily cornbeef sandwich had to close because of they had no fuel for the ovens (quadruple snicker)
I’m still waiting for the upsurge in random mugging and stick-up’s to occur due to exploding costs of fuel and food.
Yeah-I like urban living.
My brother and his family just visited here, and he continues to insist that Lexington (MA) is different, even though his house is old and floods and costs a fortune to heat - and that’s just what he tells me (personally, I avoid going up that way, since I get the heebie-jeebies north of Virginia). Thankfully, other than me, everybody wants to live there.
You broke it, you bought it…
“Robert Millay, owner of Fox Valley Homes, and his wife came up with the innovative but risky approach as a way to launch the company’s 161-lot housing development…on Neenah’s south side. ‘The market was so bad the last couple of years that we thought we would attempt something that no one has ever attempted before,’ Millay said Friday. ‘It will make or break us. There is no in-between.’”
“Caroline Rohrer wants to sell her southeast Las Vegas florist business, but she’s noticed a big problem with local buyers. ‘There aren’t any,’ she said.”
Maybe Caroline needs to send herself a funeral bouquet?
My wife talked about this yesterday. She returned from the grocery store and, as wives tend to do, told me all the details of how much she saved on bogo’s and this and that. (She’s good enough at the descriptions that someday I expect to see a check the store wrote to her, just for taking the stuff out the door.) Anyway, she usually buys flowers once a week and this time she didn’t. It’s a direct reflection of the economic news and prices at the pump and in the grocery store.
I feel sorry for the mom ‘n pop florists, especially those who market in grocery stores. Hard times a-comin’ for them.
Ben - took a walk up in NYC - couple of blocks from my office. A building that I have seen unoccupied now for two years. It might even be more; I’m just positive it’s 2 years. No clue what’s going on, but the simple look up at thw windows check verifies (to me!) it appears nobody is living here. Millon dollar apartments - no window treatments or plants that I can see. And I check once a week. Even the retail space on the street level is largly unoccupied. Only a plant/flower shop.
And the construction continues! They are building like mad in lower Manhattan. Condos for everyone! NYC - It’s different here!
Here’s the website for the building I was talking about above.
http://www.tribecaspace.com/
The Corcoran Group is big down here. There is a lot in that area getting converted and some are truly hideous. Then you go further south and it’s even more hideous. Check out Be@William or the William Beaver House or 59 John Street or 45 John Street or………………It just goes on and on. Those prices for 25 Murray crack me up. I think I will walk up with my wife and slap down a deposit on a $1,500,000 apartment. Either that or I will practice some self-gratification with a cheese grater. Hmmmm. Which will it be? Where did my wife put the damn cheese grater?
I remember our walking tour of those. It sure is good that rich Europeans are such idiots, since they are the ones who are suppose to buy these atrocities.
Yes. All the rich Europeans with their euro’s will save NYC. I wonder if they make large St. Joseph statues they can put in the lobbies of some of these places. That will surly increase sales.
And isn’t funny - Barbara Corcoran managed to sell her company just in time. She knew what was going on.
Hey ed, I have found some new atrocities while walking up Hudson Street. It’s brutal. And don’t forget that you didn’t get to see the whole neighborhood. You missed many of the atrocities. The only thing that could be worse would be your neighborhood in Queens with all of the tear downs replaced by multi-unit buildings. One question keeps going through my mind. “Where will everybody park?”
“But the condominium association allows only 20 percent of the units to be leased at once, so Moss is on a waiting list. If she tries to rent the unit without permission, she could face a $500-a-month fine.”
If push came to shove, she’s going to have to threaten the HOA with withholding commons charges until she’s allowed to rent the unit. Or go ahead and let theme try and fine her which she can also not pay and let them put a lien on her property.
Obviously, she is between a rock and a hard place. BUT, in regards to the first option you mentioned….if the HOA does it for one, how could they justify not doing the same for others in the same predicament? And if they do, then the lease percentage restriction goes down the toilet. It then becomes an apartment building with a few owner-occupied units, and this is not what people were buying into.
Personally, I don’t feel that bad for her. From the description of her situation, she’s really only been there a couple years before they decided to try to sell it. That also means that the kid is probably less than 2 yrs old. It may be inconvenient and a little cramped, but when the dust settles she may have to either come up with the extra money if she really wants out, challenge the HOA (which could cost her the condo in the long run), or hunker down for the time that it will take for it to sell…..and who knows how long that will be.
You just have to take the bad with the good. This is clearly “the bad” for her. C’est la vie.
BayQT~
And what is the HOA going to do if 40% of the owners stop paying commons charges because they can’t rent ? The other owners are going to have to hold their noses and allow renters or the HOA will be underfunded.
“The other owners are going to have to hold their noses and allow renters or the HOA will be underfunded.”
In their position I’d rather let the owners become landlords, rather than foreclosed mortgagees. At least this way the HOA dues will probably get paid and the mortgagee will choose a tenant who won’t trash “her” property. Better than squatters or teenage parties taking over the places.
Mo - I don’t know the answer, but I wonder if exceeding the 20% would trigger a clause in the loans of the others that would convert their loans, effectively if not literally, to commercial ones, with a resultant higher interest rate. If that is the possible outcome, then it must be a pretty frosty relationship among the folks there.
I have no idea either. But it will definitely be a mess either way it turns out. Someone loses….homedebtor (personally), HOA (this is NOT a lone entity. Often run by a tenant board and the rules are to benefit everyone. I WILL agree that some HOA fees have gotten completely out of hand.) or any number of the other homedebtors.
Let’s not forget, though, that everyone hates HOA fees and assessments. But they are their to help maintain the buildings, grounds, and as mentioned, the common areas. Without a way to pay for these things, how would those issues be addressed?
I don’t know what the fix is. But no matter who blinks first, the turn out won’t be good.
BayQT~
QT - nice to see your post. It’s been awhile, unless I’m just not paying enough attention to the CA threads.
Speaking of HOAs getting out of hand, looked at
Feedblitz yesterday at a wonderful condo, ’40s affordable spacious bldg in Chicago. Prices were around 350???
Why?
You ask.
HOA is minimum $2500.oo per unit and that is withOUT parking. No wonder the grand units are so cheap.
They were beautiful and I would figure out a way, but for the HOAs. YIkes.
Well, 20% down used to be required if the condo was less than 75% owner occupied. My old condo building dropped below that with no change in my mortgage. The 20% downpayment requirement kept appreciation very slow much of the 1990’s.
I bet it is even more complicated. Banks won’t finance sales of condos unless the building has a certain percentage of owner occupied units. If the condo association lets more than 20% rent, the other owners won’t be able to sell at all except to all cash buyers. Now there is a way to kill the prices in your building.
I went out last night for a few brews with the guys and ….well let’s say when I got up this morning I felt about a half a bubble off. In a desperate situation such as this it has been my practice, to run up to the local sandwich maker and have what is known as a GOOPDOG…this is a sandwich bun with cheese and a chunky meat based sauce with red onions. It really is a killer of a sandwich and a guarantee to cure what ails ya.
This guy has been made famous by the local media and did very well. NO MO! Gone, vanished, no forwarding address. I am devastated. NO MO GOOPDOGS!
Dime - OK, I’m curious - where did you buy these heart-attack eats? If you are searching for a filling lunch and good-quality ingredients, I recommend Gabriel’s Subs on Curry Ford Road will put to shame any franchise extant. Huge/thick subs, crammed with meat. “Local” ambiance. Super-fair prices. My kinda’ place. Been around in Orlando since the 1960s, if not at this particular location. Even tops Mama B’s, IMO.
Went to a party last night. One couple we know, husband is a developer. Was one of the smart ones and socked alot of money away as he saw the collapse coming. Anyway, he did do a project in Carlbad on seven custom homes this year - 3500 to 4000 sf priced around 1.25M (took over a stake from another developer who was about to walk along with 3 other partners over a year ago). Today, no homes have sold yet, despite dropping price 250K. The other 3 partners are going to walk from the project and he isnt going to float this if they do….so look for 7 more foreclosures coming on. Guess he caught a knife.
He said things are way way worse than what you read in the papers.
BB-where is this?
This is in Carlsbad CA
What street.
I’ll go do a puff piece for the Photo journalism HBB website.
Not sure of the street yet. I will try and find out more.
Bubblebutt, was the complex of custom homes named Monte Verde? Im just making that up. They all have foreign names.
Have camera, will travel.
Little guy homebuilders have no need to lie to you, as there’s nothing in it for them in keeping up their stock price, because it doesn’t exist, just like their livelihoods…
I was at a party last night in San Marcos. The host and homeowner was heard saying there were 4000 new homes built in this area (somewhere in the canyons of no man’s land between Rancho Santa Fe and I-78) and that they initially sold in the $1m price range. I had to bite my tongue at that point, as I could not help but notice on my drive in to his neighborhood all the boldly-lettered monster signs advertising “From the $600s”. Worst of all, the homes in this area look nearly identical to the new tract homes littering the San Diego County landscape, right down to the sh!t-brown stucco exterior finish.
I suspect that, in many areas, “From the $600s” (for example) means “from under $600k and possibly less.”
“Guess he caught a knife.”
Sounds more like a hatchet, or perhaps a guilloutine (sp).
Like I’ve posted before, Carlsbad has been victim to the “growth at any cost” mentality. It has La Costa Resort, and Aviara (with an attached Four Seasons hotel complex) which appeals to the 1% ers, but then goes hog-wild with huge over-priced developments catering to aspirational FBers. Unless they have trust funds, there’s no way they can afford these ticky tacky McMansions. Starting to notice several tracts of graded housing pads with For Sale signs.
I like to browse the listings on the big apartment complexes that went condo right at the height of the boom. Grand Key on Dale Mabry in Tampa is a great one. Today I saw three 1200 sq. ft. 2/2 units listed as short sales for $149K including garages, which is actually beginning to approach what I’d call a reasonable price for South Tampa. I know lots of people who could actually afford that. (Not that I would buy one or recommend that anyone else by one.) But according to the property appraiser’s website, units of that size were going for an average of about $240K in 2005 and 2006. Some sold for as high as $258K. These properties are an excellent gauge of how bad the condo market is tanking since the units are highly fungible and were heavily purchased by “investors.”
RE: Today I saw three 1200 sq. ft. 2/2 units listed as short sales for $149K including garages, which is actually beginning to approach what I’d call a reasonable price for South Tampa. I know lots of people who could actually afford that. (Not that I would buy one or recommend that anyone else by one.) But according to the property appraiser’s website, units of that size were going for an average of about $240K in 2005 and 2006. Some sold for as high as $258K.
As was noted on this blog 2 years ago…seller’s will be have to bring $100k+ to closings if they want/or have to get out of Dodge!
5th inning. 240 to 150 on the way to 80-90. Must eventually go below 100 X rent, maybe as low as 60-70 X rent. Why would anybody buy anything just because they can afford it? Why buy when you can rent, and aren’t locked into depreciation? The fact that this still isn’t obvious shows we’re still well above fair value; we’ll eventually go well below.
The majority of these condos have zero resale value in 40 years, probably close to zero in 20 years.
I just saw the best deal in the Clearwater Beach Florida area yet.
This is a 2 bedroom ,1315 square feet condo on the water in Island Estates. Foreclosure. Asking $190K, down from $245K . This unit sold for $412K in 2006 ! More importantly, similar units in the building have not been this cheap since early 2001. So we’re now back to 2001 prices, at least on one unit in Clearwater Beach. Very encouraging. Unfortunately, the vast majority of properties are still way overpriced, and almost nothing is selling.
Billo - on the east coast of central Florida, in 1998, condos directly on the ocean cost right at $100/sq.ft., unless they were brand new. Don’t know the age on the one you’re describing, but 2001 sounds on the hight side of right for an older unit and just about right for a newish one. Headed further down, I’m afraid.
Thanks for the info, Chip. This unit is on the top (seventh) floor of a building built in 1972. Pool, on intercoastal, docks available,very nice area, but almost 2 miles from the beach by
road. (1/4 mile if you could fly.)
The point is that other condos in the same area are still asking 50% to 100% above 2001 prices. That’s why I was amazed ! Maybe it has been destroyed. I don’t know.
I always enjoy your posts, so keep it up.
Billo - thanks. My estimate - personal, humble, unsubstantiated - is that an absolutely identical condo on the ocean would command 10% more than on the Intracoastal. That difference probably is negated if the river condo has a deeded, dedicated deep-water dock. All IMHO.
County’s second largest employer (GM) goes down to one shift, eliminating an estimated 750 jobs. Supporting companies impacted, and now also laying off employees, are the count’s seventh largest employer, Lear Corporation (makes automobile seats), and the eleventh largest employer, SSI Technologies, which manufactures automobile control devices. Logistics Services, which serves the Janesville GM plant, will also be laying off over 100 people.
Read all about it at http://www.gazettextra.com/gmcutbacks/
Fair disclosure - Epic is doing well and expanding - http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/opinion/283878
A call center in Madison and another call center in Janesville are closing and laying off about 100 people each. Two small towns in the area are also loosing major employers.
And the overstatement of a headline in the Wisconsin State Journal? “Madison area not seen as recession proof.” http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/biz/284524
Also, home sales in Dane County are down, but listings up:
http://www.madison.com/tct/business/284629 while some condo owners in the area are very upset with the developer http://www.thedailypage.com/isthmus/article.php?article=22483
This is a trip. I grew up across the street from this house. It peaked out at 422-K. Now a foreclosure at 139-K. That’s not too much more than my folks sold their house for in 1985.
http://franklymls.com/PW6734245
Now that’s a starter home, small, neat,and would be well-priced at 60-70k max.
That anyone, without a gun at their head, paid 422k is stunning.
Got an acquaintance who works at one of those retail investment places like Merrill lynch, and was surprised to see a trustee’s sale of his house in the paper. I thought he was doing well and had it together - maybe he’s got an ex and kids, I don’t know. But what really surprised me is the payments were only 560 and the principal only 43K. WTF?
If he had 30-year amortization, a $43,000 loan would require a $560 principal & interest payment if the interest rate were 15.47 percent. Hosed (at least in my league).
It’s probably a second mortgage that is 125% of the value of the home at the TIME the money was lent. Those are the types of rates you get for that product.
OK, so it’s only part of the storty. I forgot to say it’s in a fairly nice hillside area, probably worth at least 275k.
“…who also is a real estate agent.”
I just love when these stories end with these 7 words!
We’ve been dipping our toes into the jumbo market in west LA. Topanga, specifically. There are significant prices reductions all around, but these are reductions from grossly overpriced ‘wishing prices.’ One we looked at was bought for 1.2 in 3/07, and repainted, then put back on the market for 1.5 a few months later. It is now for sale asking 1.3. Still far too high. I’m thinking about a million (and falling fast) is about right. A second was in escrow last year at 1.7, but fell out. Now asking 1.4. Seller’s realtor quickly stated that the sale was ‘distressed.’ Loan resets in 45 days, owners have purchased out of state, and have no equity after last refi to finance a failed business (owners seem to have done the typical ‘live off housing equity’ since they purchased 30 yrs ago). Anyway, I have to think that seller psychology still has a long way to go. When more foreclosures pop up, we’ll see more fear. At least 6-18 months before I pull the trigger.
Plastic and others…If someone bought in another state and can’t sell this one, why wouldn’t they let it foreclose? And keep the one that turns out to be affordable?
wouldn’t they be able to keep new home, if they Bk’d?
In a ‘homestead state,’ like FL, they would. Not sure if AZ works this way. Suspect this is exactly what will happen to this ppty.
I don’t think that you can say that Topanga is in West LA - they are in their own dimension.
You do realize that you can’t get fire insurance there (for good reason), yes?
Atlanta:
Metro area listing inventories have now topped 115,000. WhooHoo! However, I am now seeing A LOT more FSBO signs–close to 1 for 1 when compared to RE broker listing signs–on my drive through Dunwoody.
Confirming rumors I had heard, two large local builders recently made the front page of the Atlanta Business Chronicle. Robert Harris and Hedgewood, were in the news for having a large number of liens filed against them in the 1st quarter. Robert Harris alone had garnered 455 liens.
Just had company, the neighbors came over to look at the house I’m renting (SE Utah) that’s also for sale. They just sold their house up by Salt Lake and tell me things are really slow up there. They’re staying with family across the street.
So…I show them around, nice people, and ask what they think the place is worth (asking is 150k). She looks at me and says, maybe 90k. I tell her I think it’s worth about 75k. She says they might try to get the bank to do a short sale (the LL is declaring bankruptcy).
I was very surprised to hear these words, she said it like it was just something everyone does, kind of like, “Well, maybe we can just have a yard sale…”