The Housing Bubble

The Columbus Dispatch reports from Ohio. “With so many would-be buyers waiting, M/I Homes wrapped up an anxious year during which it sold a large portion of its land holdings and worked hard at cutting expenses. M/I Homes’ CEO Robert H. Schottenstein attributes some of his company’s problems selling homes to consumers’ unrealistic expectations. He believes buyers expect to realize the full value of what they think their homes are worth before selling and moving up.”

“‘One of the things that happened nationally during the bull run is that people began to expect their home prices to appreciate at rates you would expect to get with an investment,’ he said. ‘So they bought a house to live in, but they wanted it and expected it to be one of their best investments. Over the long haul it likely will be, but if you buy a house as an investment rather than as a place to live, then I think you’re getting confused.’”

The Toledo Blade from Ohio. “The Starboard Side development was once envisioned as the proof Toledo needed to show the suburbs there was still money to be made building housing within the city limits.”

“Proposed in the mid-1990s by three community groups, the $6.5 million project called for two-dozen upscale riverfront condominiums and 20 suburban-style houses. But today only a fraction of what was planned - seven condo units that sold for $250,000 to $330,000 - has been built.”

“The remaining lots sit undeveloped because of what the developer last week described as a chronic and straightforward problem: Toledo’s housing market. In a twist from original plans, finishing Starboard Side could now depends on government subsidies.”

“‘Ten years ago, we thought that marketing riverfront property, or property near the river, would be an easy task,’ said William Farnsel, executive director of Neighborhood Housing Services of Toledo Inc., which has taken the lead in managing the property.”

“Now, however, ‘with the way the real-estate market is locally and the collapse of values, there is no way you could fund a development with everything you need and be able to cover your cost. Starboard Side is out of money,’ he said.”

“Neighborhood Housing Services recently applied for federal tax credits in hopes of luring investors for a proposed 40-unit, three-story apartment complex for lower and moderate-income seniors age 62 and over. ‘Why are we switching tactics,’ Mr. Farnsel said. ‘Right now there is no market for single-family housing.’”

“Several condo dwellers have become angry that their side yards still bear the look of construction sites. ‘A lot of people won’t invite guests over because they’re embarrassed,’ said Fred Fogelman, who lives in a two-story unit. Neighborhood Housing Services talks ‘about building those across the street, but they haven’t finished these.’”

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “Much has changed since 2005, when the local market was at its peak. Places like Novi, Birmingham, Royal Oak, Ann Arbor and Sterling Heights, for instance, are more affordable now as home prices reach pre-2000 levels.”

“‘Buyers are out there in this market, but they are looking for a deal,’ said Paul Mychalowych, an agent in Farmington Hills. ‘In the range of $200,000 to $400,000, you can buy in downtown Birmingham now. A few years ago, you couldn’t touch it for under $500,000.’”

“Home prices have dropped 23.2% since peaking in December 2005, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. And Michigan home sales fell 26.5%, from the peak of 137,558 homes sold in 2004 to 101,094 in 2007, according to the Michigan Association of Realtors.”

“‘Everything’s on clearance now,’ said Amanda Callahan, an agent in Plymouth. ‘People are putting in $30,000 kitchens just to sell their houses and they don’t get that investment back.’”

“John Babcock, president of Babcock Homes in Commerce Township, said speculative houses that builders constructed when the market was at its peak are not being replaced when they sell.”

“‘We haven’t put a new spec in the ground for a year and a half. I don’t know of any builders who are building specs because there isn’t any money in that now,’ Babcock said. ‘While the existing home market is still flooded with homes and foreclosures, the new home market seems to be drying up.’”

The Daily Tribune from Michigan. “The number of homes foreclosed in Oakland County hit an all-time high in April, an indication that downward pressure on home values and local government revenues is likely to continue.”

“There were 968 foreclosures recorded in April, the highest one-month total ever and an 83 percent increase over the 529 foreclosures for the same month a year ago.”

“While perhaps it’s a good time for prospective homebuyers to jump into the housing market, the relatively low prices of foreclosures makes it difficult for sellers to unload their homes. ‘It’s really hurting the realistic and honest sellers,’ said Pat Jacobs of the North Oakland County Board of Realtors.”

“‘As values go down, the revenue stream starts to dry up,’ said Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. ‘I’d like to think we’re pretty much bottoming out. I don’t see any immediate relief in sight, but I don’t think this can go on.’”

“‘It’s bad for us, but it’s a national phenomenon,’ Patterson said. ‘California is losing 520 homes a day.’”

Chicago Business from Illinois. “The share of vacant houses and condominiums for sale in the Chicago area has moved higher the past two years, another sign of the slumping residential market.”

“The high rate chiefly reflects the rising number of foreclosures in the Chicago area. In Cook County, the number of homes in foreclosure nearly doubled from 2004 to 2007, to 26,450, according to a Chicago-based homeowner advocacy group.”

“The higher rate also suggests that new unsold condos and homes are piling up, especially downtown, where developers will complete a record 5,900 condos this year. Many people who bought new condos as investments are having a hard time flipping them, so the units are sitting empty.”

“The housing slump is also likely to drive down the share of local housing units occupied by owners rather than renters. Mirroring the national trend, the Chicago-area homeownership rate jumped during the residential boom, as low mortgage rates and easy credit drew more people into the for-sale residential market.”

“‘The boom took people out of rental and put them into houses,’ says Steven Hovany, president of Schaumburg-based Strategy Planning Associates Inc. ‘And the bust is going to reverse that.’”

The Chicago Tribune from Illinois. “It is no secret that downtown Chicago commercial real estate is weaker today than it was a year or two ago. But the situation in the suburbs is worse, according to recent surveys.”

“MB Real Estate, a diversified real estate firm, said its analysis shows that the overall vacancy rate for downtown increased from about 11.7 percent in the final three months of 2007 to 12.3 percent in the first quarter of 2008.”

“In the suburbs, MB Real Estate found, the vacancy rate rose from 16.1 percent in the last quarter of 2007 to 17.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. ‘The suburbs got hit by the mortgage crisis,’ observed Andrew Davidson, executive vice president with MB Real Estate.”

“His company noted that many mortgage companies and other residential related businesses such as title companies that opened during the housing boom have cut back or have been shuttered.”

“‘The closing of mortgage lending companies will continue to be an obstacle to market recovery,’ the report said. ‘In addition, landlords have not been able to attract tenants from the Chicago central business district as they may have hoped. It is clear that the current weakening in the economy is affecting the suburban Chicago market.’”

The Pioneer Press from Minnesota. “It may seem as though the Twin Cities housing market is drowning in bank-mediated listings like foreclosures and short sales, though in fact it is not. A new real estate report says only 20 percent of homes on the market are bank-mediated. The rest are just regular listings competing in an overloaded for-sale market.”

“Of the 32,368 homes currently on the market in the 13-county metro area, 6,548 either are foreclosures or short sales, according to a report the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors issued.”

“‘We concluded that when you compare the two — the traditional against the lender-mediated — there are two different market places and two different median sale prices,’ Kevin Knudsen, president of MAAR, said in an interview.”

The Star Tribune from Minnesota. “When those distressed properties are factored out, the Realtors say, the Twin Cities median price fell 3.9 percent in the past year, instead of an overall 10.4 percent decline.”

“The study is a useful tool in understanding the impact of the foreclosure crisis on home prices, said Chip Halbach, executive director of the Minnesota Housing Partnership in St. Paul.”

“‘It tells a story which they’re not otherwise able to tell,’ he said. ‘It’s not scientific, but it does as good as job as we can hope.’”

The Argus Leader from South Dakota. “Sioux Falls had 1,547 building permits from January through April with a total value of $121 million. Both numbers are off 10 percent from a year earlier. Permits for new single-family housing are off 44 percent, with total housing units down 37 percent.”

“The figures point to a softer year ahead for a city accustomed to annual blockbuster gains as a sign of a bulging economy. ‘Are we down a little bit? Yes, but the whole United States is in a downward spiral,’ said Randy Bruner of Bruner Construction in Sioux Falls.”

“‘The office of the comptroller of the currency is changing requirements for lenders. It’s a whole different standard than 12 months ago,’ said Don Dunham Jr., owner of The Dunham Co. ‘With the national economy in the tank, I think that makes everybody cautious.’”

“Dunham knows of many new housing starts valued at a quarter-million dollars or more about to break ground. That’s a bright prospect, but there’s still caution in the air, he said.”

“‘The people still are coming into the economy, but instead of choosing to buy like they would two or three years ago, they’re choosing to rent, so they don’t need a down payment,’ Dunham said. ‘I don’t think job stability is the big issue. I think it’s scraping up the down payment.’”