The Housing Bubble

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “The median price of a single- family home closed in April slid by 10.2 percent from a year earlier in the Denver area, according to reports released Wednesday. The average price of a single- family home dropped to $267,259, a 17.13 percent plunge from $322,510 in April 2007. There were 26,171 unsold homes on the market, 2.5 percent more than the 25,516 homes for sale in April 2007. That equates to slightly more than a seven-month supply of unsold homes, according to broker Jack O’Connor.”

“Independent broker Gary Bauer blamed the record foreclosures in the metro area for dragging down the overall market. ‘I would still say it is a buyer’s market,’ Bauer said.”

“The foreclosure rate in Denver rose to 5.9 percent in 2007 from 0.8 percent in 2000, a 637.5 percent increase, according to a study. The 81-page report by the Denver Office of Economic Development also found that on average, 6.6 percent of loans originated annually in Denver become delinquent and enter the foreclosure process within five years.”

“The report also found that the age of loans going into foreclosure has declined to 2.5 years in 2005 from 7.5 years in 1994.”

The Denver Post from Colorado. “In an attempt to create bidding wars, banks are giving real-estate agents permission to list foreclosed homes at less than market value.”

“‘The mentality of my clients is everybody’s shopping for a deal,’ said Jon Terry, broker in Golden. ‘There’s a perception that if they buy a bank-owned property or a short sale, they’re going to get a deal.’”

“‘The biggest fear is when people can’t afford to buy homes, period, so they pull out of the marketplace and it drives all the under-contract numbers and sold prices down,’ said Mike Cox, a broker who compiles a monthly report based on statistics from the MLS.”

From KTAR.com in Arizona. “In just eight years, the city of Maricopa, Ariz., sprang from the desert almost spontaneously. Maricopa was built so quickly that it does not have a hospital or a movie theater. The only restaurants are chains such as Taco Bell and Panda Express.”

“Still, this was the place where young people and first-timers could live the dream of owning a home. But, today, with many front yards overgrown by weeds, decorated with ‘Short Sale’ and ‘Bank Owned’ real estate signs, Maricopa has been described by some real estate analysts as the poster child for excess in the housing market.”

“Back in 2005, ‘If I listed a home, I would have two or three offers on it within the same day,’ real estate broker Susan Abdallah said.”

“But on a recent day she showed a home, which originally sold for $225,000, that had been re-possessed by the bank. After reducing the price to $105,000, she still had no offers and was preparing to put the house up for auction. Abdallah has 60 bank-owned properties to sell.”

“As many as one in 10 houses in Maricopa are for sale, even while new houses continue to be built. Homeowners, banks and builders all are competing to sell at ever-lower prices.”

“‘I think that was part of the mistake that the builders made, was that they allowed investors to come in and buy,’ Abdullah said. ‘Allowed them to buy tracts of homes, you know, five, six, 10 houses, and they bought them on speculation.’”

“Mayor Kelly Anderson said, ‘You had builders and other development people that could not get permits fast enough. They wanted a permit turned around in 12 hours, because they couldn’t sell the home fast enough. They had people lined up 100 deep on a Sunday morning for a lottery ticket.’”

“By early 2004, the median re-sale price of a house was about $150,000. Two years later it was nearly $260,000. Then the mortgage crisis hit, and by the end of 2007 that re-sale price had plummeted to just more than $197,000, and brand new houses were even less — $180,000.”

“Jay Butler, who teaches real estate at Arizona State University, said of the builders, ‘They really weren’t building homes. They were building mortgages that they could put into mortgage-backed securities in order to sell them to investors in China and France.’”

“Stuck in the middle are families like Brad and Sarah Milnes and their infant daughter Hannah. They recently bought a new house in Phoenix, but they have been unable to sell their home in Maricopa. And Brad, who used to sell houses here in the days when they sold themselves, has been laid off for lack of business.”

“‘We don’t want to give this house back for a hundred thousand less than we paid for it,’ Milnes said, but plenty of people have done just that. He has seen former customers and neighbors just disappear.”

The Tucson Citizen from Arizona. “Foreclosures in Tucson are increasing dramatically. In 2007 there were 4,471 foreclosure filings in Pima County, according to RealtyTrac. An analysis of RealtyTrac data shows filings increased from 322 in the fourth quarter of 2006 to nearly 1,700 in the last quarter of 2007, an increase of nearly 430 percent. The majority of the 2007 filings came during the second half of the year.”

“Real estate experts point out that the decline in the housing market means prices are correcting from the overinflated values from the housing boom a few years ago. The median home price dropped from $280,000 in January 2006 to $244,000 in late April of this year.”

“Federal Reserve Bank data show that nearly 70 percent of the subprime loans issued in Pima County are adjustable rate mortgages. Nearly half of the borrowers will see their interest rates reset in the next 12 months.”

“According to the data, nearly 60 percent of the subprime loans were taken out by borrowers who were capitalizing on their home’s equity and walking away with cash in their pocket. That cash is now gone, and for many, so is their house.”

“Richard Elías, chairman of the Pima County Board of Supervisors, says foreclosures will have a large impact on the local economy, which is structured around new homes and population growth.”

“‘There’s not really manufacturing in this community. There’s not really other kinds of industry jobs that are out there for people,’ he said. ‘Instead, growth is what funnels our economy in large part, so when growth gets damaged by a lack of investment in housing or something like the foreclosure crisis that we’re facing, our economy is hurting.’”

“‘Neighborhood issues become very tough when there is a number of vacant and abandoned homes in a community,’ Elías said. ‘There are so many deleterious effects to having abandoned homes in neighborhoods, particularly in the toughest parts of town.’”

The Arizona Republic. “Thirty-five new townhouses near the University of Phoenix Stadium will be auctioned off next month as builders continue to use auctions to figure out what buyers are willing to pay. Trammell Crow Residential of Scottsdale has scheduled an auction June 7 to sell the last condos in the Quarter development in Glendale.”

“When the company began selling the condos in 2006, all 171 units sold out within eight months. But 35 sales fell through for various reasons, such as inability to get financing or buyers backing out, said Bruce Hart, senior managing director of Trammell Crow Residential.”

“‘We’re not waiting for a floor in the market. This is a process to determine the market value. We’re letting the market set the value,’ Hart said. ‘We hope we’re near the bottom and we hope it will turn around. We think the bottom has yet to come for most townhouses and condos.’”

“The 32 two-bedroom units start at $195,000 and range from about 1,439 to 1,716 square feet. Prices for the three three-bedroom units will start at $265,000. Previous asking prices have been up to $485,321 for two-bedroom units and $552,520 for the three-bedroom units.”

“Jon Gollinger, a principal with the company that will conduct the auction, said prices are being set very low because buyers are afraid of paying too much. ‘Really it (auction) is born out of this stalemate or paralysis that’s occurred in the marketplace in general,’ he said.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “For the first time since September 2005, sales of single-family homes in Las Vegas rose from the same month of the previous year, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.”

“Home sales jumped to 1,794 in April, up nearly 30 percent from April 2007 and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The inventory of homes available for sale on the MLS has stabilized at 22,942, a 3.1 percent increase from a year ago.”

“The median price of a single-family home continued to decline in April, dropping 3 percent from March to $235,875, according to GLVAR statistics. The price is down 22.7 percent from a year ago.”

“As in past months, Patty Kelley, president of the local Realtors association, attributes the slight decline to the number of short sales and foreclosures selling for prices below market value. Properties owned by banks and other lenders still account for more than half of all homes sold each month, she said.”

“Kelley said homes are coming onto the market priced much lower than in the past. She’s listing a home in Queensridge for around $300,000 that sold for $525,000 in 2005.”

“The Jack Nicklaus-signature golf course at Coyote Springs is open for public play, but the first model homes have been pushed back to September 2009, an executive for the master-planned community’s primary home builder said.”

“Residential building has been delayed 18 months and home prices have yet to be determined, said Klif Andrews, division president of Pardee Homes.”

“‘It’s partly the market — we’re not in a rush to get in the market today — and it’s partly slow construction activity,’ he said. ‘It was difficult to complete some of the things we had to complete.’”

“‘You’ve got to spend $30 million on wastewater treatment before you can hook up one toilet. That’s why houses will always appreciate because it’s difficult and expensive to build in outlying areas,’ he said.”

“The 40,000-acre Coyote Springs development is about 60 miles north of Las Vegas, straddling Clark and Lincoln counties on U.S. Highway 93. It’s planned for 159,000 homes on 20,000 acres with 12,000 acres set aside for a nature preserve, parks and trails.”

“Pardee intends to sell homes at a ‘great value,’ but not 40 percent less than Las Vegas prices, Andrews said. ‘Coyote Springs is more about the community, not how cheap we can sell houses,’ he said.”

“Reno attorney and political lobbyist Harvey Whittemore purchased the Coyote Springs land for $15 million in 1996. Because his cost basis is so small on the land, Whittemore could sit on the project for a while without any serious repercussions, housing analyst Dennis Smith said.”

“‘He can just use the golf course as a way to advertise the community, waiting until demand improves,’ Smith said.”

The Las Vegas Sun from Nevada. “The economy, as you know, is off a couple of ticks. First-quarter room occupancy is down 1 percentage point, Boyd Gaming’s Las Vegas revenue is down 5 percent or 6 percent, MGM Mirage’s profit is down a whopping 30 percent, and Stacy Taylor’s income is down 40 percent.”

“Taylor might be considered a barometer of the Las Vegas economy, as part of the 10 percent of the Las Vegas labor force that earns tip income. She’s a server at a tony Strip steakhouse that relies on convention goers. She’s seen her tips, which account for all of her take-home pay, drop precipitously because even though most people are tipping the same percentages, they’re not spending as much on food and booze.”

“Taylor had counted on putting most of her tips in the bank to tide her and her family’s three children over through the lean summer months. ‘I have nothing to put away this year,’ Taylor says. ‘Picking up a second job might not be a bad idea, but I don’t know how I’ll manage to do it with three kids out of school for the summer.’”

“Versions of Taylor’s story are heard up and down the Strip and around town. At the Mirage, blackjack dealer Al Maurice says management is trying to spread the pain of fewer weekday gamblers by asking dealers to take extra days off — and sometimes forcing the issue.”

“At the current pace, a dealer might make $3,500 less this year than last. So far he’s made $600 less. It’s not good, but he doesn’t think it compares with the drop the casino is seeing. So he understands.”

“Farther up the boulevard at the Stratosphere, valet Mark Cohen is seeing fewer cars during the week — he blames gas prices — and says tips are down a bit, to boot. He points out that there are more Europeans in town, what with the strength of the euro against the dollar.”

“And Europeans don’t tip? ‘Well, you know,’ Cohen says, ‘I don’t want to say anything, you know, bad.’”

“Stop by Zodie’s on Tropicana Road and Tommy Wise says the traffic is about the same and, while the regulars are being good, strangers are tipping about 30 percent less. ‘My girlfriend is a waitress and she says business is off 30 percent there, too. She says it’s the worst it’s ever been and she’s been here 12 years.’”

“Julianna Nagy, who works at Kiss’s Salon & Spa on Tropicana Avenue, and Liz Guinan, who works at Gianna Christine Salon, Spa & Wellness in the District at Green Valley Ranch, say business is down 30 percent. Their analysis: Customers are putting off haircuts an extra couple of weeks and women are coloring their hair at home.”

“‘The decent people, the average people, the people who make a good living and do right, they’re still coming,’ Nagy says. ‘The housing (problem), that is what is really hurting us. The people who were buying big houses with lots of money, they don’t come.’”