May 8, 2008

It’s Feast Or Famine In California

The Union Tribune reports from California. “Job losses, rising gas prices and continuing weakness in the real estate market will plague San Diego County’s economy for months to come, according to a forecast released today by the Anderson Forecast of the University of California Los Angeles. ‘The continuing litany of bad news sure sounds like it could be a recession,’ wrote UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff and Alan Gin, economist with the University of San Diego.”

“Home foreclosures will continue to be a drag on the real estate market for another 9 to 12 months. ‘It may very well be the middle of 2009 before we see a housing market that starts to look ‘normal,’ ‘ Ratcliff and Gin wrote.”

The North County Times. “San Diego County will lose 1,200 more jobs in April and May, the forecast said, after having posted a loss of 1,700 in March. But the economy will then stabilize, posting growth in jobs by the fourth quarter when compared to a year earlier, the report said.”

“A fundamental reason is that a downturn in several sectors, including aerospace, accompanied that era’s housing recession, said Alan Gin, an economics professor with the University of San Diego and a contributing author for the forecast.”

“‘That was a double whammy (in the early ’90s),’ he said. ‘So then the question now is, ‘Can a single whammy bring the economy into a recession?’ I don’t think it can.’”

“Discussing the future of residential real estate, writers of the forecast had no problem eating crow on their previous prediction. They noted that a year ago, the team forecast that home prices in San Diego County would remain relatively stable or fall only slightly.”

“Instead, countywide home prices tumbled almost 17 percent throughout the year, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a closely watched price indicator.”

“The forecast’s writers acknowledged underestimating the foreclosure crisis a year ago. Looking forward, they expect foreclosures to continue to ‘wreak havoc’ on home prices for the next nine to 12 months.”

Fox 6 San Diego. “Weakness in real estate will lead to small job losses, a modest increase in unemployment and weak growth in incomes and local output over the next two years, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released by UCLA’s Anderson School of Management.”

“‘But in the context of our tug of war metaphor, this is mud on the ankles, rather than a full-blown faceplant in the muck,’ the report says.”

The Signal. “A rocky state and national economy means Santa Clarita is not likely see funding allocated for any new big projects over the next year, city officials said this week.”

“City Manager Ken Pulskamp said sales tax typically goes up about 4 percent per year and is the largest form of revenue for the city. This next budget year, however, will likely see no growth in that area for the first time, he said.”

“‘That’s not good, but it’s better than a lot of other places,’ said city Treasurer Darren Hernandez. ‘For many other communities, … it’s simply devastating.’”

“Councilwoman Marsha McLean, who is a member of the League of California cities, said Santa Clarita is in good shape in these tough economic times, especially when compared to other cities throughout the state. ‘There are an awful lot cities having a really tough time and are on the verge of bankruptcy,’ she said.”

From Bloomberg. “As Vallejo, California’s home prices plunged, the once-humming Navy town on the north edge of the San Francisco Bay seemed like a good place to settle down, said Tim Medrow, a manager at a store that sells floor and bathroom tiles.”

“Then came the city council meeting Tuesday night, when elected leaders voted to turn Vallejo into the largest California city to declare bankruptcy. ‘It’s crippling the city,’ said Medrow. ‘It’s already feast or famine. And it’s only going to get worse now.’”

“Vallejo residents worry that a filing will hurt a city that struggled even in the best of times, when median home prices more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, according to the city manager’s report. In interviews, they said they were concerned it could scare away new residents, hurt city services, and push Vallejo deeper into the hole.”

“‘What business is going to want to come to a city with no money?’ said Josef Klaus, the owner of a vacuum and janitorial supply shop.”

“The area has since been one of the hardest hit in Northern California by the housing market slump. Home prices in Solano County, which includes Vallejo, dropped 26 percent in March from the year before, according to DataQuick. That helped fuel a projected sales tax drop of 7 percent to $12.4 million, according to city figures, while the taxes collected when property changes hands are expected to fall by more than $1.6 million.”

“Ivonne Johnson moved to Vallejo in October from San Francisco, looking to get away from crime and high-priced real estate. She stepped back from buying a home after she saw $80,000 cut from the asking price of one she was looking at. After this week’s news, she’s set her sights elsewhere.”

“‘If city services are going to lose funding, and that means there might be less police officers who can respond, we’re afraid it might turn into the kind of place we just left,’ she said.”

The Alameda Sun. “With home prices slumping and recession fears strong despite new federal economic figures, developers are reworking plans for Alameda Landing, the nearly 100-acre redevelopment site sandwiched between the Posey Tube, Alameda Point and Bayport, a subdivision built by the same firm.”

“‘Right now, we’re working on modifying the site plan,’ said Jessica Crow, a spokesperson for the parent company of developer Catellus.”

“Community watchdogs began growling about delays after the proposed anchor tenant, Berkeley-based energy bar-maker Clif Bar & Co., announced it was withdrawing from the project and keeping its 220 employees in Berkeley, at least for now.”

“‘We signed a letter of intent’ with the developer, said Bruce Lymburn, general counsel for Clif Bar. ‘It allowed Catellus to back out, and it allowed us to back out.’”

“Under current plans, Catellus would deliver 300 homes, 300,000 square feet of shopping and 400,000 square feet of office space along the Estuary, but that mix could change. Lymburn said, ‘For this project to work, it needs all three legs of the stool,’ he added, referring to housing, shopping and office space.”

“Lymburn said that despite the delays, Clif Bar has not ruled out Alameda Landing. ‘We have not completely closed the door. I think things are really up in the air for them, too. I would hate to be developing a 100-arce parcel right now.’”

The Bakersfield Californian. “A $100 million loan that defaulted was among seven delinquencies recorded Tuesday against developers with projects in Kern, documents at the Kern County Recorder’s office show. The largest involved a residential project in Rosamond by Stockton developer Patrick H. Matthews.”

“Defaults and foreclosures among developers have become more common since the real estate market got rough, but Tuesday’s filings stand out because of their quantity and because the Rosamond project has apparently chocked up the second-highest local delinquency in the current downturn.”

“The money was borrowed against a 40-acre, 176-lot project. Lender Bank of America in July 2007 upped to $100 million a revolving loan agreement originally made in 2005. As of April 29, Rosamond Reflections owed a past due amount of more than $71 million, Tuesday’s notice indicated.”

“Also Tuesday, six default notices totaling about $35 million were recorded against limited liability companies of another Stockton developer, Kent Hoggan. In March, two of Hoggan’s projects in Wasco had loans foreclosed on.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Authorities say the brazen slaying of a San Ramon real estate investor was rooted in an ill-conceived mortgage scam that employed an 18-year-old as a would-be buyer for a home on a bleak dead-end street in North Richmond.”

“Kashmir Billon was killed April 27 after the plot, which echoes the sleazy side of the nation’s mortgage crisis, fell apart, authorities told The Chronicle.”

“At the heart of the case is a recently built stucco home in North Richmond, a property owned by Reginald Robinson. Robinson is the El Sobrante man charged with the slaying of his business partner, Billon, who had financed the purchase and renovation of the property, authorities said.”

“Contra Costa County prosecutor Ken McCormick said two men who were brought to court Wednesday, Miguel Angel Alvarado and Javier Gomez, were hired to invent a fake person named ‘Francisco’ who would buy the two-story, tan-colored house for an inflated price of $495,000.”

“The plan, prosecutors said, was to walk away from the loan and defraud lender JPMorgan Chase of a $417,000 loan amount.”

“Despite the alleged conspiracy, escrow on the home - which was set to close on April 28, the day after Billon’s killing - was canceled earlier, meaning that JPMorgan Chase was not going to pay, McCormick said. ‘We believe this was an illegal flipping operation,’ McCormick said. ‘The person who gets cheated is the bank. They have nobody to go after because the purchaser was a fictitious individual.’”

“Alvarado’s attorney, James Mootz, said his client had no criminal record and called the charges ‘almost comical.’”

“‘He’s not a licensed Realtor. He doesn’t have any formal education,’ Mootz said. ‘And here he’s involved with all of these gentlemen who are not only licensed Realtors but developers. All of a sudden he’s being called a recruiter and a mastermind? It’s ridiculous.’”

“Contra Costa County property records show that a corporation set up by Robinson called RR Finance bought a 5,000-square-foot property at 1735 Seventh St. for $210,000 in August 2006. Robinson subdivided and built a pair of two-story houses. Billon paid for the construction, McCormick said. The recent fraudulent sale, he said, was for just one of the two new homes.”

“Neighbor Jose Montano said workers finished the house about six weeks ago. This week, it had a lock box on its door but no ‘For Sale’ sign on its small, unmowed lawn. Told that it sold for more than $400,000, Montano was surprised it was so high.”

“‘I know it’s new,’ he said, ‘but the area is bad.’”

“Robinson was having financial difficulties, records show. The California Franchise Tax Board sent him a series of liens demanding thousands of dollars in back taxes and penalties, and last month a bank financing his home in El Sobrante started the foreclosure process, claiming it had not been paid.”




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183 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-05-08 14:32:17

‘Discussing the future of residential real estate, writers of the forecast had no problem eating crow on their previous prediction.’

I guess it’s a feast of Crow for the Anderson boys. Good job of flip-flopping at the worst possible time.

‘The plan, prosecutors said, was to walk away from the loan and defraud lender JPMorgan Chase of a $417,000 loan amount.’

Hmm, I wonder why at exactly the 417 amount? Congress, you need to drain this swamp, not try and boost it. Now we have FB murder plots along with all the rest.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-08 16:03:17

$417k = Mumbo-Jumbo, the mason-dixon line financially.

Comment by aNYCdj
2008-05-08 18:57:19

I predict a run on Mcmansions at $416,995

Get yours today!

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-08 16:09:14


“Congress, you need to drain this swamp, not try and boost it. Now we have FB murder plots along with all the rest.”

Juts to give all of us an idea how bad our politicians are they increase the loan limits, relax requirements on Fannie and Freddie, want FHA to buy more mortgages, etc., juts when prices are falling in CA and few more states at 30% Annual Rate and nationally at 20% Annual Rate.

Sock the taxpayers? Pushing debt is part of the Federal govt’s charter?

Jas

 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 16:14:16

Is “Whammy” an official economist term now or have they just admitted they have completely lost their grip on reality ?

Comment by bicoastal
2008-05-08 17:33:46

When I think of whammies, it’s always in the context of that old game show “Press Your Luck”. Getting a whammy (a little red demon) meant you would lose all your money. Later, the director Remy Harlin applied the word to explosions in Hollywood action movies. He used to describe his movies like this: “First Act: Whammies; Second Act: More Whammies; Third Act: All Whammies.”

‘Is “Whammy” an official economist term now or have they just admitted they have completely lost their grip on reality ?’

 
 
Comment by Suzy K
2008-05-08 23:06:03

Ya know I’ve never been Alan Gin fan…even back in the day when we lived in So Cal 2005. I remember HBB people jumping all over me because I thought Alan Gin, et al. were full of crap back then. Me? Us? We beat feet back to the No Cal and the sh!t jobs w/benefits thank you very much…oh yeah…of course we rent these days.

 
Comment by Colin Jensen
2008-05-09 00:03:35

When the first news came out of the murder, the family was all “who would want to murder such a great guy” and “we just want to know what happened!” They interviewed a coworker who also said he just liked to help people. As soon as I noticed where the guy worked, I thought this would be bubble related — though I was guessing disgruntled FB.

As soon as the family learned who the murderer was and what it was about, they suddenly stopped talking. I’ll bet a donut that the murdered guy was in on the fraud, and his family knew. Does that make me evil?

 
Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-11 14:04:07

Discussing the future of residential real estate, writers of the forecast had no problem eating crow on their previous prediction.

Crow recipes ftw.. Choke on it REaltards…

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-08 15:53:25

“‘If city services are going to lose funding, and that means there might be less police officers who can respond, we’re afraid it might turn into the kind of place we just left,’ she said.”

Places like Vallejo are poster children for neo-vigilance movements, which had it’s day in the bay area, 150+ years ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Vigilance_Movement

There’s still time to get away to real small-town America, places with a few thousand people, no police dept., and not much crime…

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-05-08 16:06:07

Sad but true for all those city-dwellers longing for the sweet ship sailing to ’small-town America’: small town America exists for small town Americans, meaning that just showing up don’t mean squat. It all about loooonng term comittment and family history, not exactly the forte of current thinking.

Comment by az_owner
2008-05-08 16:21:44

Exactly - Californians stick out like Big Bird in most of small town America, and with their left-coast politics and points of view they are usually taken about as seriously as an overgrown muppet.

When the few hardworking, honest, and decent Californians left in that state move humbly to an neighboring state looking for a place to work and raise a family, and don’t try to “Californicate” their new homes, then they are welcome. Otherwise, they should stay in the cesspool they created for themselves.

The good people of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas know what I’m talking about.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-08 16:31:04

No need to leave the Golden State, to find nirvana…

Besides, who’s gonna bag on you for being Californian, here?

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Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 16:49:05

LOL - When I was much younger, I couldn’t understand why Republicans were so “evil”. Why couldn’t they be more loving and giving like those great liberal Democrats??

Now as a “grown-up” 34 (heh, heh, heh), most extreme left leaning “hippie types” look to me as they’ve never made it past 14 emotionally. I often wonder how they hold down a job (unless they are an academic…)

Once on this board I talked to Californian who basically didn’t understand small town america - pot luck suppers and the like. Claimed it was 50’s “Leave it to Beaver” type stuff. I told him that if California is the “future”, I’m getting off the “progress” train right now.

If you like California or ultra-modern, ultra-urban culture, not a problem. Liking it, however, doesn’t make it superior or progress in any sense of the word.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-08 17:19:21

Vermontergal, I’m a bit older than 34, but your observation about the extreme lefty-hippies is spot on. I can think of many examples from my own circle of acquaintances.

And, yes, they do have trouble holding down jobs. So, they become professional students (which is an easy way to hide from the mean, not-so-leftist Real World), or they go into academia.

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2008-05-08 18:26:31

Dead ringer Vermontgirl. My hoem “town” had 800 people in it, and we had the whole potluck dinners, fire dept picnics and stuff like that. Here the funny thing- all the ‘cute’ little leave it to beaver towns at least in the Bay Area cost a FORTUNE. WHy? my best guess is that in reality, most large cities sort of suck to live in, hence people enjoy the escapism.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:40:57

I’ve noticed most of those leftist-hippies are baby boomers who went Republican about 20 years ago.

 
Comment by James
2008-05-08 20:06:30

Um. I’d just like to note that Hippies are very big in to self reliance.

The liberals out here are very much not hippies. They are very much relying on the government and the man.

In general I think the Repulicans and Libertarians have a lot more in common with the hippies then liberals and democrats.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-08 17:00:28

AZ_Owner, you just voiced one of my pet peeves.

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Comment by DebtInNation
2008-05-08 17:22:37

Cmon, as if Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas doesn’t have a lot of douchebags too?

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-08 18:29:01

Don’t forget to add Vermont to your list DebtInNation.

 
Comment by az_owner
2008-05-08 18:38:16

Of course all those states have their douchebags - I’ve got a few living on my street. But no state’s residents have the locust-like behavior of Californians, spreading out from their central nest and devouring (or at least trying) to take over and change the places they move to , to be “more like home”. The ONLY place the “California lifestyle” works is in California, so KEEP IT THERE PLEASE!

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 18:41:35

Don’t forget to add Vermont to your list DebtInNation.

It’s good to know I’m making friends. ;)

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-08 19:22:59

BTW,

What the heck is “California lifestyle?” I was born here and have lived here and still can’t figure out what this term “California lifestyle” means.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2008-05-08 19:57:19

But no state’s residents have the locust-like behavior of Californians, spreading out from their central nest and devouring (or at least trying) to take over and change the places they move to , to be “more like home”.

What about New Yorkers?!?! They exhibit all the behavior that you listed, in spades, plus they have the pushy type-A personality and that awful, brutal accent.

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 21:43:56

If all the people from other states would STAY THERE instead of coming to California, we wouldn’t be forced to leave our home and move to your states.

Nobody knows more about what it’s like to be overwhelmed by “foreigners” (domestic and foreign) than Californians do.

(please understand my playful tone in that rant) :)

 
Comment by laughing boy
2008-05-08 22:54:53

Californians are a rare breed. I myself am a transplant from the Midwest and I have met only a few true Californians, ie people born and raised here.

And as for liberalism and leftist political beliefs, if you leave the Bay Area or the LA basin you enter right wing territory pretty quick.

 
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-05-09 07:07:33

“And as for liberalism and leftist political beliefs, if you leave the Bay Area or the LA basin you enter right wing territory pretty quick.”

Apparently the right wing territory people don’t vote in enough numbers. California is always a big winner take all state for the Democrats.

 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-08 17:45:27

Hey, Californians, come on out to Utarrr - I’d LOVE to see more of you out here…

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Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:38:21

Ah, there is az_owner again, jealous and bitter as always. Too bad CA is still the most spectacular place in the world, while AZ is just a big, stupid ‘ol desert. I have no plans to move there, regardless of the low cost (and standard) of living.

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Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 18:53:14

Too bad CA is still the most spectacular place in the world, while AZ is just a big, stupid ‘ol desert.

I’ve been to better places than California. It also sounds like you haven’t been to Flagstaff, AZ.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:15:54

I’ve been to Flagstaff and plenty of other Arizona cities. They all suck, big time. Full of rednecks and Mexicans too. All the residents like to brag that “it’s really nice here 3 months out of the year”. Yeah? Well it’s even nicer here all year long. AZ. What a crock.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-08 19:19:26

Big V,

Makes you wonder what turned az_owner and Vermontergal so bitter.

I don’t consider CA the best, nor do I consider it the worst. All states have their pluses and minuses. For me CA is home. Has plenty of small towns that are good and plenty of small towns that stink. Just like the rest of America.

 
Comment by lmg
2008-05-08 19:27:51

Hey, if I had to live in Vermont or Arizona instead of Del Mar, I’d be bitter too!

 
Comment by amoney
2008-05-08 19:36:46

I think thats the drugs from your lame ass alma mater talking. You probably haven’t traveled much - must be because you’re stuck in traffic all the time.

Shave 20 million or so off the population, and Cali would again be spectacular.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 21:57:17

Hey amoney:

What school did you go to?

I second what CA renter says about locusts from EVERYWHERE overruning California.

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-09 03:49:05

Makes you wonder what turned az_owner and Vermontergal so bitter.

I don’t consider CA the best, nor do I consider it the worst. All states have their pluses and minuses. For me CA is home. Has plenty of small towns that are good and plenty of small towns that stink. Just like the rest of America

Making an observation of an extreme personality type/ideology I’m pretty sure doesn’t make one bitter. Yes, they happen to concentrate more in some parts of CA which happens to be in your neck of the woods.

I agree with you on the rest of it.

 
 
Comment by brandon
2008-05-08 19:09:36

Can’t help but comment. We in Idaho are being crowded out by Equity locusts from Cali. Many (like my parents) came to immerse themselves for what Idaho has to offer: beauty, friendliness, the simple life etc. Another segment comes from Cali and likes what Idaho has to offer, but have now infested the area with their “refined” California tastes- they in effect create a little piece of California and wall themselves off from the rest of the rednecks. They then complain about icy roads, the snow, local politics, etc.

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Comment by az_owner
2008-05-09 00:08:20

Aren’t Californians great? Like a freaking Plague.

 
 
 
Comment by Frank Giovinazzi
2008-05-09 01:48:53

I went to an orchard fire in Pennsylvania as a newspaper reporter one night and got to talking with the owner of the land — who showed me a deed that said his family owned the land since 1850.

Unsurprisingly, none of the volunteer firefighters were upset they had to get out of bed at midnight to get a runaway controlled burn back under control.

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 16:45:52

“There’s still time to get away to real small-town America, places with a few thousand people, no police dept., and not much crime…”

The doors are often left unlocked but let’s see what happens when some thief goes entering that house uninvited. Small town America is typically very friendly but don’t f-ck with them. They don’t go in for that liberal bullsh-t about rehabilitation of criminals. They rehabilitate with a deer rifle. America, as it was meant to be! Except for the wife beating, alcoholism and incest.

Comment by KenWPA
2008-05-08 16:59:40

Well, no place is perfect!

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 17:09:49

They don’t go in for that liberal bullsh-t about rehabilitation of criminals. They rehabilitate with a deer rifle. America, as it was meant to be! Except for the wife beating, alcoholism and incest.

LOL - NYC is much too sophisticated to participate in any traditional “redneck” failings. It’s far superior be angry at humanity all the time and take any violent and/or sicko tendencies on complete strangers, what with their being so many of them. *grin*

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 19:18:35

Are you f-cking kidding me? I don’t know if you’ve caught this but I’m from Minnesota. In my world view I’m much closer to those small town folks than these NYC elites. I believe much more in that deer rifle than I do in that “concept” of rehabilitation. I was not being sarcastic. Maybe you misunderstood my post.

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Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:43:55

She’s oversensitive.

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-09 04:07:58

NYCityBoy -

My post was meant as joke that didn’t come off very well. Trust me, I know all about the dark sides of small towns.

I see alot of posts this morning about how I’m not knowledgeable and over sensitive. If you like CA and are happy there, why worry about an opinion from a hick from VT? *shrug*

 
 
 
Comment by tresho
2008-05-08 17:17:52

Alcoholism is just a problem in small towns? I didn’t know that.

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:45:04

I have always heard that alcoholism is way, way, way more prevalent in rural areas. I think the reason for it is that some people just get really bored, then of course the alcholism leads to violent/sex crimes. “Small town America” is often not what it seems.

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Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 19:00:02

Always heard? And not, 1 but 3 “way”s. Well, gosh golly gee! It must be true.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:17:49

Vermonterpest:

I went to college, where I took a few classes. I learned it there, but didn’t feel like saying “I learned in college …”.

If you’re still skeptical, look it up. Any social worker will tell you it’s true.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 19:21:10

You would think somebody from Vermont would understand what a long, brutal winter in the middle of nowhere can do to a person. I guess not.

 
 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-08 19:43:06

You dissin’ my tribe? :)

 
 
Comment by Jerry D
2008-05-08 17:28:38

Amen. Middle class will be gone in California just a matter of time.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-08 19:31:43

What?! Don’t you know everyone’s going to be moving back to the cities any day now?

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-08 19:36:10

Hmm, why did my post end up down here? It was a tongue-in-cheek reply to the comment about moving to a small town before it was too late.

 
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-08 16:00:08

“The number of visitors to San Diego County declined in 2007 and reaction to last fall’s wildfires could mean 2008 tourism might be even weaker, the economists wrote.”

And the decline in 2007 was due to the economy maybe? The Cedar fire in 2003 didn’t cause a decline in tourism in 2004. If there’s a decline in 2008, it will be due to the economy, not reaction to past fires.

Comment by DebtInNation
2008-05-08 17:26:02

In fact, the fires are one of the few bright spots in terms of the local economy, esp. for builders. I wonder what the numbers would look like w/o all that insurance money being pumped back into the economy.

 
Comment by bayparkwatcher
2008-05-08 17:26:50

I’m in SD, too, Greg. I think you’re right. People staying downtown or in the beach resort areas have nothing to fear from wildfires. Is it me or have you noticed that traffic seems to be getting better in the last couple months? At least it has been better on the 8 through Mission Valley. I believe this is because tourism is down and Mexicans are self-deporting or unable to find work.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2008-05-08 18:53:08

Well there seems to be no shortage of tourism here in SM, all I hear these days is British, Japanese, French, etc. happily spending their foreign currencies as though shopping in a banana republic. Oh, wait a minute, that’s what they’re doing.

Comment by peter m
2008-05-08 21:37:44

“Well there seems to be no shortage of tourism here in SM, all I hear these days is British, Japanese, French, etc. happily spending their foreign currencies as though shopping in a banana republic. Oh, wait a minute, that’s what they’re do”

La Inv girl,

I am actually curious, do u see a loy of foreign toursists in SM? Not to diss on SM because it is a fairly clean safe toursit destination but think if SM really wanted to boost its international tourst appeal what it could really do. Maybe build a few more hi-end international hotels & hostels, fix up that area near the ramp, pedestrian bridge and pier, which really needs a good touchup. Below the santa monica bluffs area near the sands edge there needs to be improvement with more beachside shops and plazas with quality tourist bazarrs . SM beach is just too pedestrian and somewhat bare of any tourist frills such as really quality beachside grills & eateries.
Sm just dosen’t go all out to make itself attractive to international tourists. This is a problem also for entire string of LA beachside commuities such as Venice, Manhattan beach, hermosa, redondo ,San Pedro , ect. The residents have a parochial outlook and want to preserve their communities as local and uncrowded without dealing with large influxes of foreigners.
We here in long beach actually have all the waterfront frills: scenic shoreline harborwalk pike fun zone , shoreline village, quality scenic pedestrian walk ringing the marina, powerhouse restaurant row, plenty of hotels, harbor cruises, restored schooners & old ships, ect. Problem is Long beach has some rough elements intruding into dwtn from the surrounding ghettos, and the port infrastructures may be a drawback. It just cannot get a large influx of foreign tourists, though maybe season too early.

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Comment by Pasadena_Renter
2008-05-09 08:27:36

Nearly every morning on the way to work in downtown Los Angeles, I see a bus load or two of tourists ogling the Disney Conert Hall. I can’t say that it has really increased or decreased. However, it always reminds me that this a pretty poor city for tourists, overall. It is hard to get around, the bright spots (Getty museums, Norton Simon Museum, Huntington Gardens) are pretty spread out. I know there is much love for Santa Monica, but there are so many much nicer places in the world.

Los Angeles is a far better place to live, where one can sample the interesting sites more slowly. A vacation to LA is a recipe to spend hours in a car or bus relative to actually seeing sights.

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Comment by peter m
2008-05-09 10:12:22

“Los Angeles is a far better place to live, where one can sample the interesting sites more slowly. A vacation to LA is a recipe to spend hours in a car or bus relative to actually seeing sights”

The sights of LA are indeed spaced out. One area which should be a tourist mecca is the LA musuem of history & science & exposition park area but area around it really slummish, and tourists going here will be turned off by the raggedness of the surrounding slums.
Old hollywood is another draw but same thing: ragged around edges and hollywood very diffcult to access even for tourist buses. due to traffic nightmares. Getty is a prime stop but requires a whole day in the tourist itinerary. Universal studios and burbank studios may be taken in day with tight scheduling.
World-Famous & much photographed Malibu beaches virtually inaccessable for tourists unless by private vehicle tours. Malibu not set up for tourism at all.
Dwtn LA really impoverished as a sight for tourists.
Olivera st/old union station/littel tokyo area might be a possible draw but area around it a slummish mess.

Besides the few sights i listed there really isn much for foreign tourists in LA.

 
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-08 19:21:33

Traffic from tourists was noticeably heavier during the summers in the evenings and on Saturdays earlier in the decade. I’m waiting to see what it’s like during those periods this summer. It was typically seasonally heavier last summer, but not as heavy as previous summers. If it drops off more this summer, I think that will be a good indirect measure of what’s happening with tourism.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:47:37

There’s no way that people are avoiding San Diego due to last year’s fires. All the fuel is burned up now, so the threat is very small. Besides, most tourists go to the beach, not the mountains (where the fires start).

 
 
Comment by climber
2008-05-08 16:00:11

“A $100 million loan that defaulted was among seven delinquencies recorded Tuesday against developers with projects in Kern, documents at the Kern County Recorder’s office show. The largest involved a residential project in Rosamond by Stockton developer Patrick H. Matthews.”

If people thought subprime was bad just wait for some of this commercial debt to go (it sunk my credit union). At least subprime loans are made against a finished house. A lot of commercial loans have nothing but empty lots backing them. Quite a lot of commercial money goes to salaries, permits, sub contractor fees and other expenses.

Comment by WhatOnceWas
2008-05-08 16:55:11

Climber, I keep waiting myself. I keep watching the news on Calpers., last week was the Billion dollar flop outside LA, the Condo in Sacramento etc..wonder how their huge developments are working out in Mexico,and India? …wish I can see to what extent they squandered the retirees pension money..

Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-08 17:49:44

I know of two people who working on retiring early pronto and are planning on taking the cash out instead of the pension plan because they want to shut of CalPers before it goes boom. There are a lot of very nervous people in Sacramento.

 
 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-05-08 16:01:02

For any that may know, how does backruptcy affect Vallejo’s state commitments? As in Medical payments, road infastructure funds, or basically any money not already spent? In other words, do private contractors working on government contracts get the real shaft….

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-08 17:39:42

“How does backruptcy affect Vallejo’s state commitments?”

Chapter 9 debts involve appointment of a US trustee to oversee debt restructuring. The State and Feds can’t abrogate debts because of the Tenth Amendment. Non-contractual obligations will probably get dismissed or restructured with judicial prejudice.

http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/nbrc/report/22chapte.html

Comment by kerk93
2008-05-08 18:26:02

The making of bankruptcy law is one of the few authorities granted to the Congress through the Constitution. Unless I am misunderstanding you, the tenth amendment has very little to do with bankruptcy.

It says the US can do what it has been authorized by enumeration in the Constitution, the rest is to the states or the people, respectively.

 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-08 17:51:15

Actually, the sanctity of contracts comes from the Contracts Clause of the Constitution. Tenth Amendment only protects state Sovereignty and prevents them from amending state contracts.

From what I’ve read, this is why Hillary’s bailout plan can’t make changes to foreclosure contracts, despite what she thinks. It would be in direct violation of the Constitution, in addition to poor public policy and a shameless vote-grab.

 
 
Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 16:05:20

For those who’ve been claiming that public service workers (unions) are “safe,” here’s an e-mail that’s been going out to some public employees:
———————————-
May 07, 2008
Vallejo Declares Bankruptcy
It appears the long fight is over. The Vallejo city council voted unanimously last night to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy for the city. Vallejo would become the largest city to ever declare bankruptcy in the state, and second only to Orange County for the largest public agency to do so.

“It’s time to do something different. I don’t like it. I don’t want it,” said Mayor Osby Davis, who then voted in favor of the bankruptcy.

CCN has been following this story for months, and our heart goes out to the city, its residents and its employees. What is most disconcerting is that this case may be a harbinger for localities across the state.

The city is facing a shortfall of over $15 million, with no reserves. Many cities do have the luxury of a cash reserve, but virtually every city is facing down the same issue that sank Vallejo: public safety pensions. In the LA Times rundown of last night’s bankruptcy vote, the issue was framed like this:

“Many officials and residents attribute Vallejo’s fiscal troubles to overly generous pay and benefits to the city’s police and firefighters. The salaries for police and firefighters currently take up 75 to 80 percent of the city’s general fund.”

“Representatives from police, fire and electrical workers unions all argued against the Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, saying that doing so would only make hiring already short-staffed public safety agencies even harder.”

This is not an uncharacteristic summary of friction felt in city halls throughout the state, and puts both sides in an awkward position. Public Safety workers have negotiated their contracts in good faith, while on the other hand city officials have the unenviable task of laying blame for the city’s financial challenges at the door of the community’s most trusted leaders — their police and fire workers.

With GASBY 21 and other pension issues coming to a boil, how are cities going to move forward and avoid Vallejo’s fate?

Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 16:27:47

Instead of having the balls to face their unions down they go the bankruptcy route and the Pensions get slashed anyway.

Comment by Jerry D
2008-05-08 19:08:29

Reality is ugly isn’t it?

 
 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 16:31:02

With GASBY 21 and other pension issues coming to a boil, how are cities going to move forward and avoid Vallejo’s fate?

Short answer: they aren’t. At some point, there will be mass movement to get rid of the pension plans that municipalities and states cannot afford.

Ironically, after a bankrupcy, it might be easier to hire staff. With pension obligations at zero and no one (for the moment at least) willing to believe that pensions will be paid, there will be no need to make such promises. Paying the current staff lots of money and health benefits would be very cheap in comparison to paying the pensons and health care of the past 2 decades worth workers plus today’s work force.

Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 17:13:04

I definitely agree that the pension & post-retirement benefits problems need to be addressed. BTW, in all public contracts that I’m aware of in CA, none of them contain post-retirement healtcare; many have had this phased out over a decade ago. That’s not to say that it might not exist for some, but I’ve seen contracts for some of the largest public employers in the state, and that’s becoming obsolete.

All that being said, I think even the most right-wing Republicans are going to be very surprised at the acceleration in the demise of the middle-class in the U.S. if public employee unions are eliminated/greatly weakened. Many people don’t seem to understand that employees who are NOT union/public employees still benefit from the union contracts because private employers have to compete with public employers for the same candidates.

The public unions are the only thing holding up the middle class right now.

Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 18:29:53

San Jose covers its retirees and families, it’s going to devestate several people I know who have been coounting on Medical being there for them in the future.

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Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 18:38:47

The public unions are the only thing holding up the middle class right now.

Really? The government sector does compete with the private sector for employees but even with great benefits, the government can’t always attract the same crowd because working for the government has it’s own baggage that’s different from the normal office crappola.

Also, the premise would imply somewhat of a subsidized or artificial standard of living. We’re supposed pay high taxes to pay wages to overpaid (and possibly underworked) employees to “keep them off the streets” so I can demand more money from my employer? Wouldn’t I be better off keeping my salary the same or lower and having low taxes? (Or at least the same??)

Odd - I guess the idea seems rather thin to me.

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Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 21:58:36

If you think police, prison guards, teachers, firefighters, etc. are underworked and overpaid, feel free to step up to the plate.

Do it for at least a year (try a big city in California) and come back to tell us how easy & overpaid it is.

I’ve worked in both public and private sectors. The public sector has much higher requirements than the private sector, and much better oversight.

That’s not to say public money isn’t wasted in many horrible ways, but paying decent wages to those who actually work and provide services isn’t one of them.

 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 17:15:38

At that point the public sector can be like those of us in the private sector.

The biggest fear I have about the private sector is that retirement planning is left up to the individual. That is a disaster. Most people can’t calculate 5 x 3 and they are being expected to understand their retirement account. That, too, shall end badly. I know CPAs that have to reach for the adding machine to figure out 7 x 9.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 17:58:12

The biggest fear I have about the private sector is that retirement planning is left up to the individual. That is a disaster.

What’s the better alternative? (seriously). We have a great big demographics problem coming up - it takes a whole lotta workers to fund the retirement of a few. Even if everyone did save enough, the inflation would be insane once the ratio of workers to retirees got too small.

I think, in the end, we are going to have to let go of the idea of retirement for the masses. We didn’t have it before WWII or the New Deal, and I suspect the WWII generation will be the only one to have really received it.

Our own retirement fund is our “nursing home” fund. We don’t drive ourselves crazy thinking we can support a middle-class lifestyle without income at any age.

Most people can’t calculate 5 x 3 and they are being expected to understand their retirement account. That, too, shall end badly. I know CPAs that have to reach for the adding machine to figure out 7 x 9.

What’s the problem? 7 x 9 is 79 - everyone knows that. ;)

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Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-11 14:15:18

What’s the better alternative? (seriously).

Two words:

Soylent Green.

If it’s good enough for Ted Turner, it’s good enough for me!

;)

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-05-08 18:07:34

The other issue regarding moving investments to individuals is that individuals do not vote their shares. Mutual funds and Pensions at least try to keep management honest.

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Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 18:21:36

Mutual funds and Pensions at least try to keep management honest.

Huh?? Don’t most individual investors invest in mutual funds? Don’t most mutual funds and institutional investors vote to the default/board of directors recommendations?? (Meaning no oversight??)

Just confused by the premise.

 
 
Comment by deeogee
2008-05-08 18:11:43

“The biggest fear I have about the private sector is that retirement planning is left up to the individual. That is a disaster. Most people can’t calculate 5 x 3 …..”

At some point people need to be left alone to make the mistake— and then learn how to multiply correctly.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-08 17:16:38

“At some point, there will be mass movement to get rid of the pension plans that municipalities and states cannot afford.”

Oh what a fight that’s going to be!

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:56:01

I don’t think it will be much of a fight. The pension plan will just stop paying out one day because there will be no $$ in the account.

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Comment by are they crazy
2008-05-08 18:01:47

I’m not sure I think that’s such a good thing. The retirees earned their retirement - they put in their years at work. To now tell them, or worse, those very close to retirement - sorry no pension for you, is not really to anyone’s advantage. Whether you think they should have had the pensions or not, they were promised and people planned their lives based on those promises. When millions of oldsters have their pension vaporize, who do you think is going to end up paying? I don’t think having millions of old people in tent cities is really going to come to pass.

Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-05-08 18:39:50

it will never come to tent cities, the Pension Benefit Guaruntee Corporation will step in and those that lost their pensions will still get up to $4300 a month to live on.

San Diego City is in the same mess and should be the next city in line to file, they’ve been shut out of the bond market already and most of the people that created the pension mess are being brought up on federal and state charges. The SEC fined them and the city attorney has had no luck over turning the pension benefits granted by the corrupt administration so it looks like the tax payers are on the hook.

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Comment by implosion
2008-05-08 20:33:26

I thought PBGC was for private, not public pensions? Aren’t most gov’t entities exempt from ERISA?

 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-05-09 20:52:14

my god you are right!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PBGC

The next 30 years could get very ugly.

 
 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 19:16:10

Whether you think they should have had the pensions or not, they were promised and people planned their lives based on those promises.

I agree. But those promises were made too zealously by people would did not have to keep them. Deserve it or not, we just plain old can’t afford to have people not work for as long or longer than they did work.

Despite my rather conservative leanings, I’m not thrilled with the idea of people being left completely high and dry at age 80. I don’t think old people in tent cities is going to come to pass and nor would I want it to.

On the other hand, from an economic standpoint, we can’t have 55 year olds like MIL retiring now on pensions and thinking because they worked for the last 30, they “deserve” not to work for the next 20 or so. There’s just not enough young workers to produce her income and their own income as well.

The faster we get past the “but he/she deserves/was promised” and get down to what we can really afford as a society, the smoother and more money there will be for social nets for people of all ages who quite literally have no other means of support.

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Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 22:04:38

We need to get back to families taking care of themselves.

Multi-generational households/compounds, larger lots with gardens.

We are planning for this ourselves an intend to buy property that can handle us, our parents, kids, their families, etc. over all our lifetimes.

They might not want to go along with the idea, but I think that’s the direction we’re headed as a country (as it should be, IMHO).

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 22:11:15

“Those promises were made too zealously by people who did not have to keep them.”

Kind of like the FBs’ promises to repay their mortgages?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-05-08 16:08:48

“Alvarado’s attorney, James Mootz, said his client had no criminal record and called the charges ‘almost comical.’”

“‘He’s not a licensed Realtor. He doesn’t have any formal education,’ Mootz said. ‘And here he’s involved with all of these gentlemen who are not only licensed Realtors but developers. All of a sudden he’s being called a recruiter and a mastermind? It’s ridiculous.’”

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

As if a Realtwhore needed a formal education.
But many Mastermind Realtwhores might need attorneys soon.
Anyway, it’s a Mootz point.

Comment by Neil
2008-05-08 20:03:11

“In the valley of the blind, the one eyed man is king.”

Reators, for the most part, have no education. There is no masters degree in “Realtors.” ™ No one gets a Ph.D. in real estate.

We need a few examples to keep this from happening again. Ghad… I hope I’m right and not my friend TJ about the final level of pain…

Got Popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 16:10:10

test

 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 16:11:01

Easy Credit and Stupidity pays off for Con Man

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=91337

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-08 17:26:50

He should be allowed to keep the vehicles. Why? Because if the dealership was so greedy and lazy to allow him to buy all those on a photocopied driver’s license they are the ones that deserve the loss.

During this boom too many banks and businesses threw common sense out the window. They need to be taught tough lessons especially as mortgage and HELOC fraud is still running full tilt.

Comment by are they crazy
2008-05-08 18:07:39

I don’t get your logic. I guess bank robbers should get to keep their ill gotten gains, too - if the bank was so stupid that someone was able to rob them, then it’s all good? I wonder if you would feel the same if someone broke into your house and stole your stuff? I’m not saying the dealership wasn’t populated with idiots, but that doesn’t make stealing from them right.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-08 18:55:34

The guy went back to the same dealership four times.

If someone robbed my place, I can assure you that if they came back to do it a second time they would not do so unopposed.

There is no excuse for that level of incompetence. Banks and businesses are simply not doing their part to combat identity theft - they let the victims defend themselves - and that makes them no better than accomplices to the crime.

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Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 18:59:25

If they didn’t properly ID the guy, then their lender should hold them responsible for any uncollected payments AND the ripoff artist should be punished.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Steadykat
2008-05-08 16:11:40

Hey! My house is for sale….well….it was my house.
http://lalife.com/address/332_Park_Ave_Long_Beach_CA_90814

Bought (short sale) in 1997 for $290,000.00. Sold in 2003 for $785,000.00. Now it’s for sale for $1,265,000.00.

Let’s see. That’s about $100,000.00 appreciation per year. Does anyone else think that perhaps the housing market in this State (or Country) may have been slightly overvalued price-wise?

The (truly) nice people that bought from us originally weren’t going to make any major “changes”.

However, this house has been in the renovation process, inside and out, for several years (the neighbors keep us up to date).

My wife and I were in SoCal a couple of months ago and I told her that I think that with the prices dropping in the old neighborhood and the costs involved for this couple in renovations that this may be the year it goes up for sale.

Looks like my guess was correct.

The backyard looks nice (pretty much all new except for the pool). Unfortunately, I think that a lot of the other (many) renovations made after their purchase may prove to be too personal.

A “comp” across the street was listed at 1.2 million. It was reduced (over time) to the high eights. It didn’t sale and appears to have been pulled from the market some time last month.

Comment by peter m
2008-05-08 22:39:21

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=21214118
Bought (short sale) in 1997 for $290,000.00. Sold in 2003 for $785,000.00. Now it’s for sale for $1,265,000.00.

This is a property , 705 terrain ave, right across the lagoon from that property. Sold on 3/28.08 for $689.000.

Owner Facts:
3 beds
1.5 bath
1,629 sqft
9100 sqsft lot

Zillow shows only four sales in that entire area last 3 months.
Those owners will not find a buyer unless they reduce by $600,000, and get price down to under $700,000. They are screwed. They wasted money on rennovation which won’t prevent that house from losing 50% of it peak as current value is determined by lowest priced nearby comp sales such as the property i zillowed.
I know that area and though it is one of the best parts of long beach, it is not brentwood, bev hills, or PV. Keep in mind that for Lb ALL areas and zips are falling hard, like neg 20-30% yoy and no part of LB is immune . U can drive 5 minites and a quarter mile west from park ave and u get into LB semi- ghettoized apt zones.

 
 
Comment by az_owner
2008-05-08 16:11:46

Cities going bankrupt… people killing each other over real estate scams… California has turned into such a seedy, grungy place. Sad really.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-08 16:14:14

Do cities have going out of business sales?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-08 17:09:20

I always wanted a shiny red fire truck with a working ladder and siren, and a fire helmet, and…

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 17:14:46

Maybe they could sell birth certificates to those needing new or multiple identities.

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Comment by cactus
2008-05-08 20:55:01

I think CA state employees at the DMV already do that ?

 
 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-05-08 18:49:23

Side note, did you know San Diego has to rent old retired fire trucks used for birthday parties to fight their fires! KPBS had a special on funding for fire departments throughout the state, San Diego is so low they have to call in LA and Orange County every time there is a big fire. Adequate fire protection around the state is one fire department for every 500 house holds, in San Diego its 2500, oh man we are going to be seeing repeats of the cedar fire for generations to come.

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Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 22:10:35

All fire departments work together on big fires (like 2007 and 2003), no matter where the fires are.

San Diego sends engines other parts of the state & even other states when the need arises.

That being said, the population in SD County has grown, and the public services/infrastructure has not kept up.

 
 
 
Comment by Price Doubt Forever
2008-05-08 17:18:51

FS: One historic California city, delightfully situated with Bay views. Lots of upgrades! New bridge, granite throughout City Hall. New owner must agree to feed retired city employees. Motivated seller! (short sale)

Comment by Thomas
2008-05-08 17:37:24

Didn’t someone try to sell the whole town of Amboy on eBay a few years ago?

Not that there’s much of Amboy to sell, mind you.

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Comment by peter m
2008-05-08 23:23:37

“Didn’t someone try to sell the whole town of Amboy on eBay a few years ago”

Some deserted shutterd ghost town astrde the historic rte 66, in some remote forgotten outback 30 miles NE of 29 palms/yucca valley.

I have to laugh at the back and forth hair pull between az owner and big v over which state is biggest and baddest, Ca or Arizona. Let compare deserts . I love deserts and wild areas and i am sure that Ca has some scenic deserts like death valley and the mohave but i am afraid that Arizona beats CA in overall desert scenery. However if U compare mts nothing comes close to MY CA Sierra Nevadas . I will pit my sierras against any and all mts anywhere, even the himalayas, Andes, rocky mts, Appalachian, Sangre de Cristos, Wasash, big horn mts, Mts of the moon, Kilmangaro, Caucasian, Ti shan, ect.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-08 18:36:53

And soon coming to other states also.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:02:34

Oh, admit it, az-owner. You’re not sad about it. You’re glad to hear of any bad news related to California BECAUSE YOU ARE JEALOUS. Arizona has problems too; California is better overall.

Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-05-08 21:17:54

I’ll stay here, with half the taxes, 1/10th the traffic, less filth and gangs, and we keep our posers mostly locked away in Scottsdale.

 
 
Comment by aqius
2008-05-08 23:41:28

AZ Owner

what IS yer problem with California? continually ragging on the subject gets tedious. we that live here know the problems, and as many others have stated, it’s not perfect. WE KNOW THAt !!
and I can assure you, after travelling the world, NO PLACE is perfect. so focus more on what you like about YOUR place instead of running down others. yer harshing my buzz, man, give it rest already fer christs sake!

you sound as obsessed about Cali as ByeFL is over Oil City, PA. and for the record, I have railed against FL plenty. it isnt the states citizens but the particular lazy, corrupt, good-ol-boy legal/political system that has done me wrong. However, at least I try to keep it in perspective & laugh at my own imperfections. often.

bottom line; people are people( Depeche Mode says it well )
take it EZ already. get a hobby. enjoy some of yer life before that pulsating vein pops in yer forehead.

the dude abides

Comment by laughing boy
2008-05-09 07:52:45

It’s the lack of trolls. now the HBBers are feeding on each other. The sight needs another sacrificial troll.

 
 
 
Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 16:11:54

I apologize if this is a re-post:

An e-mail to some public service workers:

May 07, 2008
Vallejo Declares Bankruptcy
It appears the long fight is over. The Vallejo city council voted unanimously last night to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy for the city. Vallejo would become the largest city to ever declare bankruptcy in the state, and second only to Orange County for the largest public agency to do so.

“It’s time to do something different. I don’t like it. I don’t want it,” said Mayor Osby Davis, who then voted in favor of the bankruptcy.

CCN has been following this story for months, and our heart goes out to the city, its residents and its employees. What is most disconcerting is that this case may be a harbinger for localities across the state.

The city is facing a shortfall of over $15 million, with no reserves. Many cities do have the luxury of a cash reserve, but virtually every city is facing down the same issue that sank Vallejo: public safety pensions. In the LA Times rundown of last night’s bankruptcy vote, the issue was framed like this:

“Many officials and residents attribute Vallejo’s fiscal troubles to overly generous pay and benefits to the city’s police and firefighters. The salaries for police and firefighters currently take up 75 to 80 percent of the city’s general fund.”

“Representatives from police, fire and electrical workers unions all argued against the Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, saying that doing so would only make hiring already short-staffed public safety agencies even harder.”

This is not an uncharacteristic summary of friction felt in city halls throughout the state, and puts both sides in an awkward position. Public Safety workers have negotiated their contracts in good faith, while on the other hand city officials have the unenviable task of laying blame for the city’s financial challenges at the door of the community’s most trusted leaders — their police and fire workers.

With GASBY 21 and other pension issues coming to a boil, how are cities going to move forward and avoid Vallejo’s fate?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-08 16:12:33

Kash wasn’t king…

“Kashmir Billon was killed April 27 after the plot, which echoes the sleazy side of the nation’s mortgage crisis, fell apart, authorities told The Chronicle.”

“At the heart of the case is a recently built stucco home in North Richmond, a property owned by Reginald Robinson. Robinson is the El Sobrante man charged with the slaying of his business partner, Billon, who had financed the purchase and renovation of the property, authorities said.”

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-05-08 16:15:40

Greenspan: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-usa-economy-greenspan.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that the worst of the credit crisis is over, according to sources who attended a speech he delivered in New York.

Greenspan also said house prices still had a long way to fall and that it was unlikely they would stabilize by year-end, according to meeting attendees who provided Reuters details of the speech at the Alternative Public Strategies Conference.
—–
Those two seem pretty clearly incompatible to me–if house prices still have a long way to fall, they will continue to undermine the value of MBSes and the resulting fear in the credit markets will continue to grow.

Comment by Sailor38m
2008-05-08 16:30:38

LOL credit crisis over? If im not mistaken since the end of the last auction the fed has loaned (given) out over 435 billion. I’m sure they sre still standing in line for more of that cheap money. Why go back to the open market when you can get money so cheap from the fed.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 17:22:49

Hey Greenspan, hear this you old mummy. “Shut the FUCK up!!!!!”

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:06:11

HEY, how’d THAT make it through?

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 19:11:14

I’m NYCityBoy.

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-08 19:28:42

LOL. Almost sounds like I’m God

 
 
 
Comment by pismoclam
2008-05-08 21:41:08

O.K., both Gin and Greenspan say it’s close to being over. Now, to verify and authinticate this bring back Lareah and get a statement from LAY. Boy do I feel good! I was worried it might last to 2012. hehehehehehehe

 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-08 18:10:05

Greenie said it because it is part of an orchestrated plan to bolster investor confidence. This harkens back to the bad ol’ days when the market hung on his every word.

Once people stop thinking about dumping all the toxic waste in their portfolios, the banks can quietly borrow from each other again and unload all of their worthless level 3 assets, thus allowing renewed investor capital diversion to consumer loans, effectively “unfreezing” the credit markets.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-08 19:14:41

I think Ben’s efforts on this blog have taught us a lot of lessons. I think the most important lesson might be that the world of talk and the world of reality have very little in common. It is sad but this simple fact cannot be denied.

But another lesson is that reality often catches up to the talk and strangles it. This is why I think the stock market, like the real estate market before it, is in grave danger. Thank you for the many lessons, Mr. Jones.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-08 19:19:16

That gets me wondering..

If all it would take to unfreeze credit is to bolster investor confidence, is this a credit crisis based on numbers or is it a confidence crisis based on emotions?

And, if bolstering investor confidence cures the credit problem, why not do it?

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-08 21:37:49

Bostering investor confidence is fine, as long as there is transparency between the boardroom and the shareholders. That’s the problem: The Feds seem far more interested in keeping the investor money flowing in, but less so in reforming a clearly corrupt and abusive corporate hierarchy.

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Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 22:22:00

and that’s the crux of the matter

smart kid, that joey

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Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-08 16:16:33

OT for the Cali thread, but inquiring minds want to know - posted it elsewhere also…

Question: I know this has been asked before, but I wasn’t paying attention. If the house you’re renting is foreclosed or given back to the bank, is the bank obligated to honor your lease? Let’s say you’re 3 months into a one-year lease, for example…

Comment by Suzanne's Ex
2008-05-08 16:53:44

Not an expert but I did some research before signing a lease last month. In California the lease is terminated but the foreclosing bank is required to give you 30 days notice to vacate, 60 days if you’ve been there over a year. The bank is also on the hook for your deposit.

 
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-05-08 17:13:29

“is the bank obligated to honor your lease?

No

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-05-08 17:16:19

IANAL, but it’s my understanding that they are NOT obligated to honor leases in most states.

BTW, I responded to another post of yours regarding squatting, but it was late…I think you can go to the bank that’s foreclosing on your house and offer to keep the house maintained in exchange for “free rent” until the house is sold. Might be worthwhile.

Good luck to you!

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-08 18:24:56

thanks, everyone -still waiting for my LL to tell me the papers are filed giving it back to the bank

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-08 19:25:47

i’d think about consulting an attorney.. you might get all the answers you need from a free consultation. Then again, you might be able to secure your crib for a while at minimal cost of a couple hundred bucks, by filing some paper or other..
You might be able to sue for the remainder of your lease contract or for damages or for moving expenses…. who knows? ..an atty.

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Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-08 20:05:54

in regard to free consultation, when i was first starting out, i wanted to lease some commercial property. The agent gave me a lease to look over. I didn’t understand some of the stuff in there so i took it to an RE attorney.. no charge..
hi, how are you, what can i do for you..
He looks at the lease and his expression changes.. Asks me what i need clarified. I point out a clause and he says “Before we go on, i gotta tell you that i’m very familiar with this lease.”
How so?
“I wrote it”
So, since his opinion was clouded for obvious reasons, i said thanks and was walking out the door..
I hear “Don’t sign it.”
I says thanks again..

 
 
 
 
Comment by bicoastal
2008-05-08 17:42:08

It depends on where you live. Some states and cities have strong tenant-protection laws, others have none at all. (NYC has strong tenants’ rights. In Cambridge, MA, where I have been a landlord for years, the tenant would have the right to stay in the house through the end of the lease, even if the house was sold or foreclosed on.) You should contact a good lawyer or a local tenants’ rights group.

Question: I know this has been asked before, but I wasn’t paying attention. If the house you’re renting is foreclosed or given back to the bank, is the bank obligated to honor your lease? Let’s say you’re 3 months into a one-year lease, for example…

 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:07:28

No, the bank only has to give you 30-days notice.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 16:17:24

“‘What business is going to want to come to a city with no money?’ said Josef Klaus, the owner of a vacuum and janitorial supply shop.”

Lots of “Payday Loan” shops is my guess.

Comment by KenWPA
2008-05-08 16:53:18

Pawn shops and liquor stores should do equally as well.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-08 16:22:06

“All of a sudden he’s being called a recruiter and a mastermind? It’s ridiculous.’”

How about Con-man, dupe, sucker, mark, bad tempered loser, Prisoner ? Will that work for you ?

 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2008-05-08 16:34:16

“Weakness in real estate will lead to small job losses, a modest increase in unemployment and weak growth in incomes and local output over the next two years, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released by UCLA’s Anderson School of Management.”
————————————————————————
So says the “Bagdad Bob” of higher educational institutions.

Comment by Brandon
2008-05-08 16:47:44

This comment is laughable. You could argue that the growth of the economy over the last few years was mostly built on RE speculation. People made money in RE and the proceeds flowed from construction and RE into professional services, retail, hospitality etc. The source of the growth has dried up and this will trickle across many different industries.

Comment by suckersrally
2008-05-08 17:16:44

Exactly right. The economy since the last recession has been the war and real estate. There has been real wage deflation for the last 7 years, so without this bubble there would have been no growth. Excepting, of course, energy firms and defense contractors. But, then, what does the US produce anymore?

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-08 16:53:39

Wow, the livin’ must be sweet high up in those ivory towers.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-05-08 17:11:50

Tenure is beautiful thing for those who have it.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-08 17:24:59

And it’s not that easy to get. There’s a tremendous washout rate along the tenure trail.

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Comment by bicoastal
2008-05-08 17:44:32

“Tenure is beautiful thing for those who have it.”

Yes, we like tenure!

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Comment by DebtInNation
2008-05-08 17:44:32

I love how all of these economy douchebags preface their statements with “if consumer spending doesn’t drop.” Let’s see; 22″ rims or cable bill (2 months overdue)*? Cable bill wins.
*Note to self — switch from Miller Genuine Draft to generic 40 ozr’s

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-05-08 19:21:55

Overheard two bubble heads talking the other day–one said to the other that she had to either pay her cell phone bill or her rent. Decided to pay her cell bill. My guess is that she now lives with her boyfriend (who she was probably yakking to all the time on her cell phone.)

 
Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-11 15:07:03

Note to self — switch from Miller Genuine Draft to generic 40 ozr’s

The devil you say! Life’s too short for cheap beer!!!

(Though I must admit $25/case for Dogfish Head is a bit ridiculous, I mean it’s the LOCAL for cryin’ out loud.. Probably cheaper in MD :p)

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:10:25

He’s not considering the negative wealth effect that occurs when people are forced to live off of their incomes only.

 
 
Comment by CA Guy
2008-05-08 17:11:13

Yep, the Anderson group insists on publishing their crap despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Those retards have been pointed 180 degrees in the wrong direction throughout this housing debacle. I honestly don’t know why they get any press as they are as useless as the realtwhores at the NAR. What a total joke. Alan Gin at USD is no better. I feel sorry for any of his econ students. Lord only knows what kind of rubbish he talks about in the classroom.

Comment by cactus
2008-05-08 21:00:58

the Anderson group is a joke

 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2008-05-08 18:22:19

“Community watchdogs began growling about delays after the proposed anchor tenant, Berkeley-based energy bar-maker Clif Bar & Co., announced it was withdrawing from the project and keeping its 220 employees in Berkeley, at least for now.”

Ahhh… my home turf. Alameda is about the most vehement, anti-development, NIMBY city you’ll find. They already have a law called Measure A that since the 70’s that prohibits multi-family dwellings to be built, or anyone to build on a lot under a certain size. Basically, if you weren’t around prior to 1974, then you ain’t getting unless you shell out the dough. People in this town scream anytime something new is proposed since it would surely “ruin their quality of life”.

The ONLY new thing that’s been built is a huge and ugly development of massive Mcmansions out on what used to be military land. Starter models are 750-800k.

Comment by WhatOnceWas
2008-05-08 20:57:40

Jetson-boy, The way you were describing Alameda you’d think it was the rolling hills of Marin. I drive past that new (KB) development exactly across the street from rows,and rows of sec8 looking squaller. I don’t even stop at the Mcdonalds there…is there a nice part? Isn’t it just what Oakland flushes out on the way to the bay?

 
 
Comment by Brad
2008-05-08 18:25:36

the housing bust is causing a recession, but not a depression. why? just think of all the money that is no longer spent on housing. housing is getting cheaper and will continue to do so and the benefits will flow into the economy and people will once again have more money to spend on everything else - not all spending was heloc

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 19:14:03

That’s exactly what will lead the recovery.

 
Comment by combotechie
2008-05-08 19:48:59

Just think of all the consumer based jobs that will disappear along with the disappeared borrowed money that used to line people’s pockets. Not a small matter since 70% of the economy is dependent on consumer spending.

Sure housing is getting cheaper, but so are most tangibles assets. Things are getting cheap because people don’t have money to spend to keep prices up.

Falling prices are great if your job isn’t connected to the price drops; you are screwed if is.

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-05-08 20:05:06

Yesterday in NYC I heard an enormous amount of French on the streets. These people may be just tourists, but if they are buying condos with cheap USDs, housing may never get cheap enough for natural born Amerimorons.

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 22:29:27

Don’t worry, az_lender. If the French are investing in US property to take advantage of the exchange rate, then they are going to lose both on the currency and on the property. I have no problem with foreigners making bad investments in the US; it just sends more $$ back our way.

 
 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2008-05-08 18:42:24

Here’s something sort of new: there are “for lease” or “for rent” signs all over the place in commercial spaces. Furniture stores, cosmetics stores, basically many small - medium sized retailers selling discretionary items seem to be going out of business.

Comment by lainvestorgirl
2008-05-08 18:45:28

… So much for “commercial real estate is immune from the residential downturn.”

 
 
Comment by LARenter
2008-05-08 19:37:40

This is another crazy idea:

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the agency which guarantees bank deposits, has a plan to rescue mortgage borrowers.

Free money, courtesy of the banks, but backed by taxpayers.

Bair wants Congress to provide five-year, interest-free loans to borrowers who have bitten off more than they can chew. The money would get those borrowers to at least 20 percent equity, and it would force lenders to restructure those loans.

Lenders would have to pay a “subscription” fee to the Treasury to cover that five years of missing interest payments.

“The existence of too many unaffordable mortgages has created a cycle of declining home prices and limited refinancing options that has contributed to more defaults, foreclosures and the ballooning of housing stock,” Bair writes in the Financial Times.

“This in turn has led to further home price declines.”

Government should now focus on getting the housing lending market back into a balance without overdoing it, Bair argues. “This can be done only through widespread restructuring of unaffordable mortgages into affordable ones.”

Bair is aware of the “moral hazard” problem of rewarding people who took crazy risks by investing in homes solely to profit. She proposes a “simple” debt-to-income calculation — the one the lender should have done in the first place — to ensure that only loans that were truly unaffordable at origination get into the plan.

“This can be done only through widespread restructuring of unaffordable mortgages into affordable ones,” Bair says.

She points out that economists, including former Ronald Reagan adviser Martin Feldstein, have made similar proposals.

Bair’s plan, she writes, keeps the risk of re-default on mortgage investors and spreads the cost between the banks and their borrowers.

“It has built-in incentives for mortgage investors to qualify those borrowers who have a good chance of paying off a restructured loan over the long term,” Bair writes.

The plan also avoids write-offs, which are expensive, and requires investors to consent. The plan, she says, would work within existing contracts and securitizations.

“Most importantly, those homeowners who remain committed to their homes would be given the means to ride out the crisis,” Bair writes.

“The housing crisis is a national problem. Painful as it is, we must be prepared to apply government efforts now. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s past experience cautions us that prompt action is always cheaper than a delayed response.”

Comment by matthew
2008-05-08 20:55:50

Sorry sweetie, not buying your bailout BS.. The “housing crisis” occurred between 1998 and 2005/6. What we’re seeing now is the aftermath of that real housing crisis that wrought incredible havoc on this country and it’s citizens to the benefit of a few thugs and scammers… I see no crisis today, whatsoever, from my vantage point except the devaluing of my hard earned dollars to pander to and bail out these same thugs and scammers..

Also, the “delayed response” you are referring to was the delay by the Fed and Congress in overseeing the mortgage and RE industry in the first place… that “delay” certainly helped create this disaster… fixing that so it won’t happen again is the only action this Congress should take.. fix the problem and not the symptom, brain child, and leave the taxpayer’s and Treasury out of it..

 
Comment by cactus
2008-05-08 21:05:42

“Government should now focus on getting the housing lending market back into a balance without overdoing it, Bair argues. “This can be done only through widespread restructuring of unaffordable mortgages into affordable ones.”

It can be done by letting the free market price the homes

 
Comment by Price Doubt Forever
2008-05-08 21:18:29

Aaaaagh!

How does lending people money get them equity? Won’t we go through the same thing again five years from now? This is the “refinance your way out of debt!” fallacy. The only way to give people equity is to reduce the size of the loan faster than the house price is falling.

There are only two ways to reduce the size of the loan, assuming the “homeowners” can’t pay it back:
1. The banks swallow hard and write it down.
2. People like Congress generously hand their money to the banks.
Sorry, let’s rephrase that:
2. People like Congress generously hand OUR money to the banks.

I much prefer Sir Humphrey’s (”Yes, Minister”) four stage plan for the government dealing with a crisis:
Stage One: Nothing is going to happen.
Stage Two: Something may happen, but we should do nothing about it.
Stage Three: Maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.
Stage Four: Maybe there’s something we could have done, but it’s too late now.

Comment by Big V
2008-05-08 22:35:25

Yeah, ditto the Humphrey dude. I no longer sweat the government plans because I know our system has been designed to move in a snail-like fashion. Can’t do anything on the fly; oh well.

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-08 21:25:55

As much as i appreciate the time and effort that goes into paraphrasing, in this case the little words, punctuations and details are of utmost importance, and it might be better to get it from the horses mouth, instead of from a (British ?) newspaper.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/letters/lte_04292008.html

 
 
Comment by BKlawyer
2008-05-08 20:44:14

1500 jobs in April/May?? I know a business that shut down yesterday and laid off 140+ jobs b/c of housing issues. I am speaking to many people DAILY who have been let go b/c of the “economic downturn”. Spoke with an electronic salesman who has held his job for 31 years. Has never seen the economy or his product sales soo bad. Remember that after 1929 the economy did not really recover until about 1954. 25 years later. . .

Comment by WhatOnceWas
2008-05-08 21:42:35

Unemployment is only 5% the Govt. just said so…’course 30% of us are 1099’s so we don’t count. also I just learned that on Avg. Bill Gates and I are Billionaires so I got that going for me….

 
 
Comment by WhatOnceWas
2008-05-08 21:37:42

Sovereign Bancorp the 2nd largest US S&L is trying to raise an extra Billion. No problem here either…They probably just want the money for party favors at the board meeting..

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080508/sovereignbancorp_santander_capital.html?.v=1&.pf=focus-retirement

 
Comment by ec3
2008-05-08 21:58:32

>> “Home foreclosures will continue to be a drag on the real estate market for another 9 to 12 months. ‘It may very well be the middle of 2009 before we see a housing market that starts to look ‘normal,’ ‘ Ratcliff and Gin wrote.”

Then after that they can turn on the re-finance banner ads. We can buy new pickup trucks, fill them up with cartfulls of supplies from HD and start flipping property again. 9 months? I can hold my breath for less time. Lookin’ good!!

Thanks, UCSD “economists”! That’s some serious scholarly academia.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-08 22:23:46

“‘The continuing litany of bad news sure sounds like it could be a recession,’ wrote UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff and Alan Gin, economist with the University of San Diego.”

Precautionary recession calling by consensus…

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a recession.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-08 22:26:58

“Discussing the future of residential real estate, writers of the forecast had no problem eating crow on their previous prediction. They noted that a year ago, the team forecast that home prices in San Diego County would remain relatively stable or fall only slightly.”

The secret to a successful career as an economic forecaster: Develop a taste for crow…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-08 22:38:16

PAGE ONE
For Mortgages Underwater, Help Swims In
Tiny Fish Clean Pools
Of Foreclosed Homes;
Eating Up Mosquitoes
By MICHAEL CORKERY
April 24, 2008; Page A1

ANTIOCH, Calif. — While lawmakers in Washington struggle to solve the nation’s foreclosure crisis, officials here are using a small fish to clean up some of the mess.

The Gambusia affinis is commonly known as the “mosquito fish” because of its healthy appetite for the larvae of the irritating and disease-spreading insects. Lately, the fish is being pressed into service in California, Arizona, Florida and other areas struggling with a soaring number of foreclosures.

The problem: swimming pools of abandoned homes have turned into mosquito breeding grounds.

“They are real heroes,” says Josefa Cabada, a technician at the Contra Costa Mosquito & Vector Control District, a government agency. “I’ve never seen a mosquito in a pool with mosquito fish.”

 
Comment by DannyHSDad
2008-05-08 22:44:05

Granite Countertop and Radiation:

http://www.txcn.com/sharedcontent/dws/txcn/houston/stories/khou080507_jj_countertopdangers.da1f6698.html

(You can see the video, too.)

So the hot craze of granite countertop can also have a deadly impact on you. [I can imagine a booming business in radiation (and radon) detection and then hazmat granite removal and then suing the makers and/or homeowners.]

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2008-05-08 23:06:49

Now, if they could only get that combo chair/commode thing online:

http://www.drinkbrawndoshop.com/

 
Comment by frankie
2008-05-09 01:12:23

A view from the Mersey

LIVERPOOL’S city centre property market is facing a growing crisis, with prestige developments struggling to sell.

Beetham’s landmark West Tower is fighting to find buyers, and nearby St Paul’s Square has sold just five out of 50 luxury flats.

Down the road, in Old Hall Street’s Albany Building, there are still 68 vacant properties following its collapse into administration last year.

http://icliverpool.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/tm_headline=liverpool-s-luxury-city-centre-flats-fail-to-sell%26method=full%26objectid=20878724%26siteid=50061-name_page.html

but it’s al’right

HERE is a danger that the negative presentation of the current property market can become a self- fulfilling prophecy.

Money and confidence are becoming more and more illusive and the property industry is facing challenging times.

However, those with ingenuity of thinking, speed of reaction and courage of convictions will be able to ride out the current difficulties.

http://www.ldpbusiness.co.uk/commercial-property-liverpool/commercial-property-news/2008/05/07/viewpoint-negative-presentation-of-current-property-market-could-become-self-fulfilling-prophecy-96026-20874016/

That herbal tea cheers you up every time.

 
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