The Housing Bubble

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Hold on to that house. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, says it will be worth at least 20 percent more. But you’ll have to wait until 2013. In a presentation Wednesday to the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, Yun predicted the Tampa Bay area housing market will revive by next year and resume appreciating at a modest pace.”

“‘By five years from now, comfortably, things will be much better,’ Yun reassured more than 100 association members in the crowd.”

“Homes could eventually attract premium prices obtained in places like San Francisco, Yun said. ‘There will be a tipping point where Tampa becomes a superstar city,’ he said.”

“Appointed the association’s chief economist a year ago, Yun has faced skepticism in the past about his guesswork. During a visit to Tampa last June, he foresaw a ’sonic boom’ in home sales if the Legislature lowered property insurance rates. Rates went down a bit, but the region is still waiting for the boom.”

“Yun said his role at the national association is to promote positive trends as long as the information is factual.”

“With local home sales off by more than half since the 2005 peak, Realtors were grateful for the bit of good news. They thanked Yun with a warm ovation. ‘We’ve been doing it for 100 years. We’re going to be doing it another 100 years,’ said Deborah Farmer, president of the Tampa association. ‘Because Realtors rock!’”

“These days, a tension hangs over the quiet streets of Andalucia. Rival groups of property owners avoid each other except at board meetings, where they clash. The Andalucia Master Association’s board has been trying to force owners of vacant lots to build houses since 2003.”

“‘It really has turned personal,’ said Leon Arndt, one of a group of dissenting lot owners. ‘People cross the street to avoid meeting each other. It’s tearing the community apart.’”

“Late last year, the association replaced that demand with orders to install landscaping, sidewalks and other amenities on empty lots. Lot owners objected, saying the improvements would cost them $20,000 to $30,000 each.”

“Among the residents who support letting lawyers sort it out is Sandy Hopper, who lives next door to Arndt’s vacant lot on Rubia Circle. ‘I don’t know too many people who can pay $850,000 for a lot and then cry poor because they don’t want to pay $30,000 to fix it,’ said Hopper.”

“That 2005 purchase price is accurate, Arndt said, adding, ‘I’d be surprised if I could get $600,000 for it now.’”

“One of the reasons behind the housing boom through 2005 was heavy migration into the Tampa Bay area from places like the New York City suburbs, Chicago and Miami. And one of the reasons homes aren’t selling as they should this year is that the pipeline of transplants from these feeder markets is drying up.”

“The drop in home sales the past year in Queens, Suffolk and Nassau counties in New York, the Chicago region and Miami are worse than the sales drop in the Tampa Bay area.”

“‘Going back to 2001 through 2005 we had a huge (number) of homeowners cashing out and moving not just to Florida but to the Carolinas. In the last 24 months, we’ve seen very few,’ said L.P. Finn III, whose family owns one of Long Island’s largest realty companies. ‘Our referrals to fellow brokers in Florida are way off, about 50 percent off.’”

“Chicagoan Lynn Tempera bought a house in Pasco County’s Oakstead neighborhood as the housing fever tightened its grip in 2005. But when she returns on visits to her suburban Chicago haunts, she gets a glaring lesson on why fewer Midwesterners are duplicating her Florida migration.”

“‘My daughter lives in Huntley, Ill. The same houses are still for sale every time I go up there. It’s been that way for over a year,’ Tempera said.”

“Homebuyers still see better values in Florida than in New York, Finn said. ‘But they’ve said, ‘Let’s put that move off a couple of years.’”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “Sarasota attorney John Yanchek admitted that he helped a client prepare two sets of mortgage documents with two different sales prices and that he lied about money that was supposedly held in trust. When asked why at a Florida Bar hearing Thursday in Sarasota that could be a prelude to the stripping of his law license, Yanchek said it was because his clients asked him to.”

“‘I was instructed by my client to sign it, and I signed it,’ said Yanchek, referring to a mortgage document that bore an incorrect sales price. ‘It was not the smartest thing in the world to do.’”

The News Press from Florida. “Building industry representatives want Lee County to make massive cuts in its budget for permits and inspections before a $430,000-a-month deficit drains the coffers dry.”

“The industry has been hit hard by the collapse of housing prices in the county: Median price for an existing home was $212,500 in March, down 34 percent from $322,300 in December 2005, at the height of the boom.”

“As a result, new houses can’t be built for what existing ones cost, and construction has plunged. A similar situation exists in Cape Coral, where a similar fund is running a deficit.”

“‘We’re having to do some difficult things and having to let some very good people go’ as construction jobs become scarce, said Dennis Cantwell, a director of the Lee Building Industry Association. ‘It’s not easy for us and it’s not easy for the county, but it’s the sort of choices they have to make.’”

From CBS 46 in Georgia. “The housing crisis is hitting home in Georgia. Foreclosures hit record highs this month, and real estate prices across Metro Atlanta are plummeting.”

“‘I couldn’t tell you what will happen to me,’ Ruby White said. Her house was scheduled to be sold to the highest bidder at this month’s foreclosure auction on the Fulton County courthouse steps. ‘I can’t sleep at night,’ White said.”

“White’s mortgage payments jumped from $780 a month to more than $1,200. That’s more than she takes in on her monthly fixed income. ‘I’ve been living here for 38 years,’ White continued.”

“‘Prices are still going down,’ Steve Palm said. His company tracks trends in home values across the Metro Atlanta using actual home-buying and selling prices. According to Palm, White lives in one of the hardest-hit areas for foreclosures and price reductions in the metro area.”

“‘In these areas, we saw the price go down by 8 percent or more,’ Palm said, pointing to a map that showed areas in Clayton, South Fulton, and DeKalb County. According to Palm, more than half of Clayton County is in what he considers a ‘crisis zone,’ where home prices have dropped 8 percent or more in a 12-month period.”

“‘Pretty much the south side or below Interstate 20 has seen the greatest reduction in price,’ Palm continued. ‘Clayton County, South Fulton, South Atlanta, we have some areas in DeKalb.’”

The Atlanta Journal Constitution from Georgia. “To those optimists who argue the housing market is about to turn around, one of Atlanta’s top developers begs to differ. ‘We believe it will be some time — at least the second quarter next year — before we see any substantial recovery in the residential markets,’ Tom Bell, CEO of Cousins Properties, told shareholders.”

“‘We’ve stopped producing lots in almost all of our projects and are now watching the market closely for the opportunities that inevitably show themselves during tough times,’ he said. ‘We’re seeing office users that are slower to commit or expand, retailers that have significantly pulled back on new locations and residential buyers that are still waiting to see if we’ve hit bottom.’”

“A Cousins condominium building in Buckhead is scheduled to open in three months. Only 25 percent of the 137 units have sold thus far, Bell said. Two other condo projects — CityPlace at Buckhead and the Premiere at Fox Plaza — were put off because of the soft market. CityPlace was a joint venture with The Related Cos.”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “Progress Energy’s utility meters are spinning noticeably slower in Florida, a reflection of the national real estate bust that has stalled the Sunshine State’s economy.”

“The Raleigh electric utility reported Thursday that earnings dipped 3.5 percent in the first quarter of this year as the once-booming growth in Florida’s population has slowed to a trickle. Tens of thousands of unoccupied homes in Florida have swelled a backlog of unsold or foreclosed properties in that state’s housing market.”

“‘This is permanent for the next year or so until we see the housing inventory reduced,’ said Peter Scott, Progress Energy’s chief financial officer. ‘This is just a temporary slowdown.’”

“Rising demand in recent years emboldened Triangle apartment landlords — many jacked up rents and fees while offering fewer giveaways. But the tables could be turning as a crush of new apartments hits the market and job growth slows.”

“‘We’re starting to see adjustments that could put money into the pocket of the renter,’ said Brian Reece, a partner at Karnes Research, which collects data for the Triangle Apartment Association.”

“The Triangle labor force is growing at its slowest pace since 2003, state labor data show. During that period, 3,647 new units became available — the most in any year since 2002, apartment association data show.”

“Another bit of foreshadowing: The region’s apartment vacancy rate is climbing for the first time in six years. At least 9.2 percent of the region’s 91,800 apartments were empty at the end of March, up from an eight-year-low of 7.8 percent a year earlier.”

“Meanwhile, 3,687 units are being built, in addition to a growing number of unsold homes that are moving to the rental market. There were 7,123 units on the drawing board at the end of March, according to the apartment association.”

“‘A few years ago, money was very easy to come by,’ said David Ravin, president of a Charlotte company that is building at least 612 apartments in communities in Cary, Chapel Hill and Raleigh. ‘But the money has been cut off. And while we might have a bubble here to get over, there’s going to be a slowdown in supply.’”

The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Charlotte-area home sales and construction plunged during the first quarter, outpacing national declines. The eight-county region has now seen four straight quarters of worsening declines, and the current period may be even more painful.”

“‘It was bad, and I believe second quarter will be worse,’ said Chuck Graham, a longtime expert on the area real estate market. ‘We’re getting into the worst time for us.’”

“A national index also shows the Charlotte market as the only one of 20 urban areas where home prices are still appreciating. But those measures are scant comfort to anyone struggling to sell.”

“Scott and Angela Gibson have dropped the asking price on their Charlotte home nearly 9 percent, to less than $175,000. They moved back to Tennessee in November after he was laid off. They’re straining to pay rent and the $1,400 mortgage payment. One month, they sold their lawn mower to raise mortgage money.”

“‘We are an average middle-class family, and this has left us financially spent and worn out,’ she said.”

“Charlotte logged a record year for sales and construction in 2006, even as housing markets elsewhere slowed. The region’s sales rose further during the first three months last year. Since then, they’ve tumbled hard. ‘We’re late to the party, but we have arrived,’ said Matt Martin, an economist with the Federal Reserve branch in Charlotte.”

“Newcomers, like the Gibson family, have propelled the Charlotte region’s growth and kept houses selling. The Gibsons studied several cities as they contemplated a move in 2006. They bought in the Davis Lake community.”

“But they found costs higher than they expected, from taxes to child care and food. Last October, he was laid off from his job in marketing for a lawn and power equipment company. It was time to leave.”

“They first asked $191,900 for their house on Windchase Lane. They’re at $174,900 and willing to negotiate.”

“‘When we bought … there was such a high competition for good homes, and when you saw something good, you had to make a bid quickly,’ Angela Gibson said.”