May 9, 2008

What A Stuck Housing Market Looks Like

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger, “The most severe real estate recession in decades appears far from over, with the pace of foreclosures rising, the fall in home prices accelerating and the pain spreading to nearly every major U.S. city, according to two reports. Gary Sweredoski, a Realtor in Myrtle Beach, S.C., is behind on his own mortgage and facing possible foreclosure. He’s also sought bankruptcy protection.”

“‘I’m a real estate broker, and my business just died,’ says Sweredoski.”

“I decided to take a look at Greenwich, CT, one of my favorite enclaves of multi, multi-million-dollar homes. Existing home sales in Greenwich are down 37.5 percent in March from a year ago and prices are down 13.7 percent. What’s even more disturbing, given the median income of the typical Greenwich homeowner, the number of Greenwich foreclosures in March was twice what it was a year ago.”

“If Greenwich is falling, perhaps the super-rich are not so immune to this housing crash as we’ve been saying all along.”

“Moving to a 55-and-older condominium community was supposed to make life easier, Richard Greig said. ‘This was supposed to be our retirement dream. We were going to come here and we wouldn’t have to mow the lawn or shovel snow,’ Greig said.”

“Instead, Greig and other residents of two incomplete developments in Litchfield, have been left to scramble through the financial and legal wreckage of a housing market gone sour and an allegedly bankrupt developer with a history of legal entanglements.”

“‘There’s nobody that lives here that’s happy that they purchased here at this point,’ Greig said. ‘But we’re stuck here now.’”

“‘I’m not the only developer out there having a tough time right now, it’s a tough market,’ said Richard C. Berube of Londonderry. ‘The bank is part of the problem. The real estate market is part of the problem. I’m probably part of the problem.’”

“The nationwide housing slump isn’t keeping adventurous single women like Roxanne Williams from buying homes in the Victor Valley. ‘There’s no point in me paying rent and I want security for myself and my children,’ said Williams.”

“‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule, a broker and president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors.”

“After years that saw developments sprout up faster than rooms could be sold, Center City’s high-rise boom seems to be slowing. Projects have been quietly canceled or delayed, and with a glut of units on the market, more and more realtors see at least a temporary slowdown in the works.”

“Alan Domb, whose real estate company owns high-rise condo buildings including the Parc Rittenhouse, said it could take as long as two years for the market to regain its footing. ‘If you haven’t started a project, and you’re thinking of starting in this environment, you have a better chance of seeing God,’ Mr. Domb said.”

“Prices in the Bay Area and Los Angeles are about where they were in August 2004. Hard-hit Detroit has retreated to its August 1999 level. Seattle, on the other hand, is back where it was July 2006. The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index is now roughly where it was in January 2005, about 3 1/3 years ago.”

“Let’s not forget that in the second half of 2004, prices in Las Vegas were soaring 50 percent on a year-over-year basis. Anyone who thought that would go on forever spent too much time in the desert sun.”

“Billionaires Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger say the pain many financial institutions are feeling because of the credit crunch is well deserved. (They) said that the financial companies that engineered subprime mortgages and the investment funds backed by those mortgages don’t deserve much sympathy as they record losses now.”

“Munger said lots of financial institutions acted with stupidity and overreached to improve earnings in recent years. ‘I think you have to start with the idea that a lot of the current troubles are richly deserved,’ Munger said.”

“Steve O’Conner, chief lobbyist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said, like many before him have said, ‘We are clearly in extraordinary times. This is the greatest housing crisis in the country since the Great Depression.’”

“O’Connor answered a question about relief for lenders by saying: ‘Nobody’s going to bail out lenders. There is zero sympathy for lenders. I know because I go up there (to Capitol Hill) every day.’”

“American International Group Inc. shares were under pressure Friday morning, retreating after the blue-chip insurer reported a quarterly loss of nearly $8 billion triggered by huge write-downs on credit investments gone sour. The results were driven by a $9.11 billion write-down on a credit derivatives portfolio and $6.09 billion of net realized losses from AIG’s investment portfolio.”

“‘Although we expected that AIG would have some losses in the first quarter, the level of the additional losses exceeds these expectations,’ S&P credit analyst Rodney Clark said. Fitch Ratings downgraded the firm too.”

“Fremont General Corp, which is selling assets after regulators ordered it last year to stop subprime mortgage lending, on Friday said it may file for bankruptcy protection.”

“Economist Mark Zandi says the nearly nine million homeowners with negative equity are particularly vulnerable in this weak economy.”

“‘These folks are in big negative equity positions. If there is any disruption to their income at all, they have a major problem. And disruption to income doesn’t mean what it used to. Disruption to income ten years ago meant death, divorce or major disability. Disruption of income now means, well, I have to replace two tires (on my car), or my water heater broke,’ he said.”

“What was once a red hot market has softened and the number of homes on the market has jumped. ‘Sales are much lower than in the past three years,’ said Donnie Brainard of Alameda Property Group. ‘Las Cruces hit a high and now we’re hovering at the bottom edge of a cycle.’”

“There are more than three times as many homes on the market this year than four years ago. The first quarter of 2004 saw 474 listings while this year there were 1,593. ‘We’re still seeing tons of interest from California and places like Wisconsin,’ said Rick Stoes, managing director of the Grubb & Ellis office in Las Cruces. ‘I think we’re still ahead of the nation.’”

“Oklahoma City’s market conditions are not as bad as they are in many areas of the country, Oklahoma City Realtor Faith Thomason said. Thomason said, ‘It is a buyer’s market, even in Oklahoma City, because we have so much inventory.’ For example, she said that in just the southwest area of Edmond, there are more than 200 new homes on the market.”

“‘Don’t get anchored to a price,’ she said. If a neighbor’s house sold for $180,000 last year, that doesn’t mean that you can reasonably expect your home to fetch the same price.”

“According to Southern Oregon MLS figures, 288 existing homes sold in the rolling quarter that ended April 30, a decline of 33 percent compared to the corresponding three months in 2007. Broker Vic Nicolescu says one in four sales during the rapid-fire sellers’ heyday earlier this decade were to people who have since flooded the market with inventory.”

“‘A quarter of the sales in 2004 and 2005 were to speculators and investors with no intention of occupying the property they bought,’ Nicolescu says. ‘It should be obvious to everyone that we’re in for at least another year of a buyer’s market. Buyers can be very picky and sellers are going to get their brains beat in.’”

“‘These are tough economic times,’ said Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. ‘The fact is a lot of economists, a lot smarter than I am, didn’t see this coming. A year ago, no one expected us to have the problems we are to the extent we are.’”

“‘The No.1 issue on the minds of voters is the economy,’ said David Fleming, president of the Economic Alliance. ‘We have an economist at the L.A. chamber who four years ago predicted the housing bubble would burst. We have seen prices decline by 20 percent, … and they could go down another 20 percent.’”

“I’ll admit it: When home prices were soaring in my neighborhood, it made me feel really smart. As the years went by, and all of us on the block could count our home appreciation month by month, all this paper equity made us feel financially secure as in, ‘Now we know how we’re going to pay our college tuition bills down the road.’”

“But as they say, easy come, easy go. Home prices in our neck of the woods have been falling just as they’ve been falling around the country.”

“The huge drop in home equity has spooked home sellers. Foreclosure rates have skyrocketed, hitting new records. Banks are still taking weeks and weeks and weeks to parse offers from prospective buyers. Buyers are getting fed up and are moving on to make other low-ball offers.”

“Fighting through all this to get a deal done is like wading through Jell-O. Just ask any real estate agent who hasn’t torn his or her hair out yet.”

“If the news isn’t bad enough, I’ve been hearing from readers around the country who are in shock that their home equity lines of credit have been shut off. This is what a stuck housing market looks like. Nobody feels that smart anymore.”




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197 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-05-09 10:15:46

I had so much fun stuff, the desk clearing is a little longer this week. My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by foo
2008-05-09 11:44:11

Thanks Ben. Nice roundup as usual.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 13:32:31

Thanks for nothing, Ben. I was hoping to see news of a Mozillo indictment. You really ruined my weekend.

Comment by say what
2008-05-09 17:01:07

hopefully this is not a double post
http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece

Comment by Dan
2008-05-09 20:23:19

Great article! Everybody should read it! That is the way the lie goes. The lie that midle class is leaving better and better. Sinse 70 standart of leaving in US is deteriorating and we gonna reach the point that the difference is obvious and the grandparents of today’s 40-years olds will be sorry for them. Funny if I was not almost 40.

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Comment by az_lender
2008-05-09 17:05:38

and thank YOU, NYCB, for the free lunch in Manhattan Wednesday. Next time I treat you and the wife.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 17:10:38

And you are the envy of the blog having got a free lunch from NYCBoy. I am just glad that Mickey D’s would take my food stamps. That was a close call. Take care, lender. We enjoy your wisdom.

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Comment by Nomansland
2008-05-09 17:21:57

Thank you so much for your blog.Is it safe to buy a house yet? :)

Comment by chilidoggg
2008-05-09 21:30:23

is this a reference to Marathon Man?

 
 
 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-05-09 11:30:45

“ ‘I’m not the only developer out there having a tough time right now, it’s a tough market,’ said Richard C. Berube of Londonderry. ‘The bank is part of the problem.’ ”

Imagine, the bank wants to be repaid, with interest. That is a problem.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 12:19:29

Tuxedo_junction,

Wasn’t this the very same guy that denied he was in fact himself and held the cops off for hours then hid in the attic?

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 14:23:05

“‘I’m not the only developer out there having a tough time right now, it’s a tough market,’ said Richard C. Berube of Londonderry. ‘The bank is part of the problem. The real estate market is part of the problem. I’m probably part of the problem.’”

My goodness, it’s like warts. Warts are ‘a problem’. They’re warts! Warty-warts. This guy is a wart-buddy. I mean, ugly, and stubby, and unsightly, and gets in the way of happiness, and everyone else wishes it would all just go away, but they just keep lingering around resisting all efforts to cure them.

Comment by Wickedheart
2008-05-09 17:24:42

Duct tape gets rid of warts. It’s magical stuff, really, good for all kinds of things. For instance picture it over this guys mouth.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 17:44:38

I’ve used duct tape to get me out of the desert (jeep. Gosh, I hate Jeeps) and out of plumbing leaks, and out of many a sticky predicament. I had no idea duct tape also cured warts. If I ever get some I’m going to remember this good advice, and thank you in my heart.

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Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-09 11:37:31

Too bad all the builders and house people didn’t consider this advice:

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” - Mark Twain

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-05-09 15:47:56

My most recent pausation and reflection revealed that everyone thinks I should buy now, cause “it’s a buyers’ market and blahbity-blah-blah.”

Hence, my decision to wait another 12 months…

 
 
Comment by aqius
2008-05-09 11:43:39

“Gary Sweredoski, a Realtor in Myrtle Beach, S.C., is behind on his own mortgage and facing possible foreclosure. He’s also sought bankruptcy protection.”

well, now, Mr Broker will be more than familiar with the BK filing paperwork process as he tries to comprehend the huge stack of papers needing his signature while he scratches his head in puzzlement over the many jargonistic terms sprinkled throughout, trying not to act like a dawlding dumabass while getting the bums rush from the all the impatient pen clicking PDA checking Starbucks sipping overagressive type-A functionary leeches wanting him to just sign the damm paperwork already so they can just get on with it.

he should feel right at home.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 13:35:39

Broke and broker!

I hope that while he’s filling out his bankruptcy paperwork he falls over and his pen punctures his scrotum.

Comment by pressboardbox
2008-05-09 13:47:40

Yes, penniless with a ruptured sack is how we like our mortgage broker these days.

Comment by Wickedheart
2008-05-09 17:30:49

“penniless with a ruptured sack”

And a JT up his *ss. There I finished it for you.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 14:33:25

Wow. There’s an image! And there’s my beloved NYCityboy!

But let us continue with this delightful tale:
And then, once the pen is firmly wedged in there, he’ll be rushed to the hospital, groaning and weeping piteously, and the EMT’s will covertly giggle all along the route, and secretly text a few of their friends with the lurid details, and once at the hospital expert doctors will be called upon to consult and they will render a sad, sad verdict. It is too delicately placed to be removed, this pen. (What kind of pen is it, by the way? I think a grubby Bic, is what I’m thinking. And it’s blue ink.)
Anyway, they can’t take it out, so this poor sad man will have to have a special truss built, I believe in Estonia or some such Eastern European country, cut-rate, and shipped over and then his doctors will gather and seriously consider the attachment issues and probe and prod and nod wisely. After about, like 7 hours, they will finally get him taped into his new apparatus so he can go out and trundle it around. Sadly, the wheels squeak, and this makes nearby dogs howl with pain.

See? Huh? I TOLD you all I was having a ‘Good Idea Day’.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 15:33:43

Oh, yes–and during the recovery period his mom comes over and helpfully knits a little purple doiley kind of thing to cover his pen–perforated man-bits as he trundles them around the world on his squeaky dog-crazing trolley. He would like to take it off, because, Jeebus! LOOK at the thing? Could it be worse?! No, probably not.
But then his mom would get mad, and then where would he be? All alone, rolling hisself around squeakily. And anyhow, it’s true–the knitted purple doily does in fact keep his thingie warm. Look on the bright side.

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Comment by laughing boy
2008-05-09 17:27:56

Holy sh*t! I’ve seen this guy wheeling around on Market St in SF!!

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 17:46:45

‘Holy sh*t! I’ve seen this guy wheeling around on Market St in SF!! ‘

Well, I hope you didn’t give him any change, laughy, because he probably deserved it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 11:45:24

I don’t know if the Arizona Slim Ranch ever had a home equity line. I’ve never asked it.

But I do know that I’ll handle repairs and improvements the way I always have: Figure ‘em out for myself, and if the job’s too big for me, myself, and I, I’ll hire someone and work alongside him or her.

Comment by AZtoORtoCOtoOR
2008-05-09 12:59:28

LOL. Arizona Slim, just keep the following in mind:

Hourly rate working alone: $50
Hourly rate with owner watching: $75
Hourly rate with owner helping: $150

Have a great weekend enjoying the sun. Please do me a favor and send some up here to Portland!!

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-05-09 15:10:27

When I had a TV repair shop, I charged a higher “undoing what your brother-in-law screwed-up” rate!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 16:19:23

If you had some nosy jerk looking over your shoulder you should have just stopped working. Hand him a screwdriver and say, “here. You fix this f—ing thing and I’ll go bang your wife.” Something tells me you would get the privacy you need while you work on the BIL bungling.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-09 11:51:32

‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule

Journalists take note: Here are ten more sob stories just begging for coverage, track these women down and don’t forget the digital recorder - the quotes ought to be prime!

Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-09 13:11:49

So 10 of the office hens are all buying houses to impress each other with in a falling market, proving again that Realtors are just not that smart.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-09 13:32:49

And when there is no more mileage with the 10 dingbats, you can be sure Barney Frank will wheel out 10 black lesbian divorced parolees with adopted mutant hermaphrodite Chernobyl children who need to be bailed out.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-05-09 15:50:22

That right there is comedy. Good timing, good delivery….well played.

 
 
Comment by Rich
2008-05-09 14:44:01

Carroll Yule is the local area mouth piece that said in her collum in 2006 a 10% + gain buying a house now. This woman must have brown eyes because she is full of it. One more thing her collum is no more in the local paper because she was always “it’s a great time to buy” nothing but a tool.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 16:21:55

I hope her vibrator shorts out and electrocutes her.

 
Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 20:34:09

it is a great time to buy. you buy and i get a great commission. i think that buying a house from her is mandatory if you work for her. now things are so bad that the realtors are churning houses amongst themselves.

 
Comment by peter m
2008-05-09 21:54:43

“Carroll Yule is the local area mouth piece that said in her collum in 2006 a 10% + gain buying a house now. This woman must have brown eyes because she is full of it. One more thing her collum is no more in the local paper because she was always “it’s a great time to buy” nothing but a tool”

That rag she is quoted in , the desert press, is a typical hi-desert REIC prop rag. The entire vic valley and hi desert is nothing but RE , new developments, endless new desert tracts, yadda yadda. That is all they do out there, just build and build new crappy homes in endless empty sagebrush flats. Nothing else to do out there as it is boring beyond description and 8 months of the year the 100 % sun will fry your brains out, which is why U get idiot Re mouthpieces like C Yule and the hi desert association of liars.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2008-05-09 15:27:25

..and those 10 single RE moms better be buying at absolute “rock bottom” prices because nobody else is and they’ll be hanging onto those shacks until their Joshua trees sprout Manna from Heaven :)

 
Comment by peter m
2008-05-09 21:39:42

“‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule”

Out in victor valley!! That hi-desert area of San Bernardino county has a lot of single mom’s because a lot of section 8 welfare types and assorted riffraff moved from the LA ghettos out to Vic valley for the cheap homes. Lots of broken family units resulting in wives/ girlfriends remaining single in order to get all those welfare Bennies, Gov’t aid. I once went into dwtn Vic Valley and the hugh of gov’t welfare agencies is astonishing. More out there than i saw in Compton.
As far as cheap affordable housing , yer the hi- desert is getting real cheap nowadays, tons of housing under 200,000. These desert single moms will survive with their walmart/ CVS jobs and gov’t assistance pmts. Plus having numerous boyfriends around for additional assistance.

” The Victor Valley has the best home quality for the lowest price in Southern California according to Jim Albert, branch office manager at Regal Mortgage”

Maybe, maybe not. I say that the quality of those lennar/ standard/ frontier/pardee homes are about on par with the recent crap put up all over the IE.

 
 
Comment by ann
2008-05-09 11:55:42

I feel smart….sold high, bought low, didn’t HELCO, don’t like cc…only have 1 I use..cars paid off….some of us were real smart others just tried to look like that on paper..

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-05-09 12:09:16

Ann, Ann, Ann…You seem so smug. Just because you did it right, are doing it right and will do it right tommorrow, have a little sympathy. Think of those ten single RE mothers ( who apparently worked both sides of the street in a profession that liberally screws people).
By the way, you sound one hellofa lot like me and probably 95% of the reg’s here.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 14:38:01

Yeah, I agree with turnoutthelights. You sound snotty and intolerant.
I like you already.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-09 15:35:30

If you want to feel snotty and intolerant, feel sorry for this first time buyer who is so happy to report that the doom and gloomers are so wrong. He got financing so, after waiting for so long, he is now able to catch a falling knife:

From the forums at Syracuse.com
931.1.
by Anthonyesq, 5/9/08 6:45 ET
Re: Closing today at 11. Who hoo!

“And for anyone interested who has been reading the doom and gloom that has been reported by every source imaginable in media outlets around the country I will give you the scoop on how my process went. I do have good credit. I chose a 30 yr FHA with no prepayment penalty.I was only required to put 3% down. Now granted, the house I bought is well within my means, not the big bucks that some people spend on the cookie cutter houses around this area. I am not a realtor, or affiliated with a realtor in any way. Just wanted to let people know my experience with buying my first house and that there is financing available, and many houses which can be had for a good deal in that 75k to 130k range in Syracuse and the surrounding areas. Believe me, I know as I looked for over a year.Good luck to anyone looking.”

**************************

He does get points for buying within his means.

But Anthony, excuse me, 3% down? You’ll be upside down before ya know it, hun. He doesn’t understand that when we talked on the local boards about 20% down that that was a reason not to buy now because in the future that would depress prices. He thought he wouldn’t be able to buy. You can’t give these people Vulcan mind melds. They either understand your point or it flies right over their heads.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 17:49:19

‘If you want to feel snotty and intolerant…’

Why, yes, I do.
I didn’t even have to read the rest of your words to know I did. But I will, read the rest of your words I mean, as soon as I’ve posted this.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 17:56:20

Oh, golly, thank you Carrie Ann. My favorite bits were:

‘I am not a realtor, or affiliated with a realtor in any way.’
and then the next one, ‘Believe me, I know..’

Let’s see, what are my answers. Hmmmm. Oh, yes…that would be 1.) ‘I bet you are, you just sound liar-ish somehow’, and 2.) ‘Nohow’.
And the exciting denoument will probably be: ‘Ouch’.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-09 18:29:53

LOL, Olympia!

I hope to God you’re writing copy somewhere and getting paid the big bucks. :)

 
 
 
Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-10 10:28:47

Well to be fair, lots of us have been putting up with smug and condescending home “owners” for quite awhile now, so indulging in a bit of well-earned schadenfreude is no great crime IMHO.

 
 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-05-09 11:56:07

Move to a 55-up community and all your problems are suddenly over? If life could be so easy…. and we thought the entitlement virus only affected the young. I’m hoping some of this economic hardship will be a kick in the pants, and get people back to our American ideal of working hard, taking responsibility for our mishaps, and saving for a rainy day. We’ve been whooping it up on Donkey Island far too long. (Pinocchio reference…)

Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-09 13:14:30

Moving into a community of cranky people doesn’t sound like idea of a retirement haven. At least here I can yell at the kids to stay off my lawn.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-09 15:43:17

My gawd, Mo Money, you are so right.

I ask myself….why would I want to hang out with other old people? I find 1/2 the 40 year olds I run into boring as hell. As soon as the kids are out, I’m resuming my self-centered life of hubris. :)

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2008-05-09 17:11:50

Morro Bay (one of my winter abodes) does have a demographic problem. Everyone who isn’t 75 or 85 is either (a) working in fast food or lawn care or a discount store or (b) 95. Guess if I keep going there long enough I’ll be 75 too.

 
 
Comment by catspit1
2008-05-09 11:59:39

One year ago the mayor of LA and his people did not see this coming? Hard to believe.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-09 12:25:37

The city of angles didn’t see a pyramid coming?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 12:34:48

I’m visualizing a picture of a big, Egyptian-sized pyramid galumphing out of the Pacific Ocean. And it has LA in its sights.

Oh, the horror movie.

Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-09 17:58:09

I would watch this, with popcorn and beef jerky and a cozy afghan cuddled around me, for all night long. Maybe even twice, is how good it sounds. Especially if there’s lassos, and some singing. Is there singing?

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Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-10 10:31:30

_Revenge of the Illuminati_

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Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 20:40:21

they are too busy watching the mexican invasion.

 
 
Comment by peter m
2008-05-09 22:10:07

“One year ago the mayor of LA and his people did not see this coming? Hard to believe”

He was too busy bangin the La Opinion Journalist and going thru a messy divorce . Plus he has less knowledge of basic economics than 99.9 % of bloggers on this site. Failed the CA law exam 4 times.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-09 12:01:32

“Oklahoma City’s market conditions are not as bad as they are in many areas of the country, Oklahoma City Realtor Faith Thomason said. Thomason said, ‘It is a buyer’s market, even in Oklahoma City, because we have so much inventory.’ For example, she said that in just the southwest area of Edmond, there are more than 200 new homes on the market.”

Could it be that you have so much inventory, like so many other places, because there are so few sales because prices are too high for buyers?

Comment by exeter
2008-05-09 12:03:46

What is it about a RealTurds warped logic that they haven’t to preface every statement with “it’s not as bad here…….. BUT”

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-05-09 15:58:04

“Oklahoma City’s market conditions are not as bad as they are in many areas of the country”

“It is a buyer’s market, even in Oklahoma City, because we have so much inventory.”

Does not compute. Danger Will Robinson, danger!!

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 16:28:38

Next week I will be traveling to Cheese Heaven for the weekend. I will be seeing a lot of old friends that I haven’t seen in more than a year. The last time we were together one of my friends kept saying it’s a buyers market. When I had finally had enough I slammed my fist on the table and exclaimed, “it’s not a buyers market. It’s not a sellers market. It’s a suckers market.” All of their eyes were widened and their buttholes tightened. I’m guessing that next week nobody will be uttering the words “buyers market” within earshot of me. If they do, may god bless their souls because their a$$ is mine.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 20:43:38

All of their eyes were widened and their buttholes tightened.
———————————————————————-
just wondering….how do you know this for a fact?

Comment by implosion
2008-05-09 22:35:22

Especially in the context of, “may god bless their souls because their a$$ is mine.”

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Comment by Brandon
2008-05-09 12:03:42

“‘I’m a real estate broker, and my business just died,’ says Sweredoski.”

Great example of the secondary effects of the housing problem. MSM has put the focus only on subprime: people bought homes they can’t afford, now they are getting foreclosed, sad story, and now it’s time for the weather. But secondary effects will be tougher to quantify and could be big. Obviously, RE agents, brokers, all the people in the mortgage business, contractors, etc. are feeling the heat as their income has dried up. I posted last night that the RE slowdown will trickle through the economy in many ways. Just this morning I heard a car add for $8000 of msrp for GMC trucks- the contractors aren’t buying them, so now their is a fire sale.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 12:35:33

Brandon,

Seriously? I’ve been waiting for the “SUV Mark-down Bell Weather” to arrive and couldn’t believe what was taking so long?

Comment by Brandon
2008-05-09 12:56:16

The dealer was also heavily discounting Yukons and other SUVs. I think the stuff has hit the fan in the last week or two as gas has raced up and some have concluded they can’t afford their ginat truck/SUV. I work with a girl who has an SUV and her husband a big truck- they commute about 20 miles round trip each day and their loan payments total $900 a month. Check the news- there have been some good articles lately about some dealers not taking SUVs as trade-ins.

Think about how it relates to housing- look at all of the Bay area refugees who bought around Stockton and Modesto and still drive over to the Bay Area for work. Imagine their gasoline bills combined with their mortgage on a $500k house that’s losing value.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 13:11:49

Brandon,

Hmm, not taking SUV’s in trade!? It’s so crazy it just might work! No, the reason I ask is that (as a self-employed person) I would be entitled to take advantage of Sect. 179 in the IRC. I could care less about mileage, my office is 1/2 a block from home. I will have to go out and start it up periodically to make sure the battery hasn’t gone dead. Anyone that doesn’t have an inventory or cap. eq. to depreciate gets dinged for going this route. Like a dentist with an Excursion that lives a mile from his clinic?

Why should he have a break for buying a 6,000 lb. vehicle?

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Comment by aqius
2008-05-09 13:07:47

DinOR

how on earth have you held out so long for yer SUV purchase? you must be blind, deaf & dumb not to have been brainwashed by the endless barrage of “SALE SALE SALE” commercials from every possible angle of the MSM on god’s green earth.

oh wait, wait, dont tell me (nod to NPR). . . you were asleep in a cave on a pacific island & just woke up to find nirvana has arrived?

lucky bastard! how I envy you. yer a hellova patriot by getting the biggest, baddest looking Canyonero on the lot, so the Smiths next door can also envy you as they once more have to keep up with the Jones. mission accomplished.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 13:16:29

aqius,

“Canyonero” LOL!

I’ll be up front, it’s strictly a tax dodge. Can you imagine being so lazy you refused to walk HALF a block to work! Besides, and this is true, even in a town of 15,000 people ( our parking sucks!) I’ll leave it at home and let paying clients use my spot. :)

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Comment by SaladSD
2008-05-09 14:34:54

I was wondering why there were so many new SUVs around, they’re giving ‘em away! (and they’re a carbon spewing tax haven, to boot). Though SUV drivers seem to be scowling more lately….they need to be burped.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-09 18:11:59

And if the Feds would have just taxed these monstrosities out of existence like many of us wanted to see over the last 7 years, we likely wouldn’t be paying $4/gallon.

 
Comment by peter m
2008-05-09 22:20:07

“And if the Feds would have just taxed these monstrosities out of existence like many of us wanted to see over the last 7 years, we likely wouldn’t be paying $4/gallon. ”

i actually would favor a value added tax on suvs though normally i am an anti gov’t anti- tax person. I actually get sick of seeing these eco-destroying gas- devouring monstrocities driven around by cell-phone yakkin yuppie moms or welfare low lives probably getting their gov’t welfare pmts, food stamps, disability checks, section 8s, while cruising around 20 MPR in LA marginal hood areas.

 
Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-05-10 14:57:45

No reason to pick on SUVs for taxation. Slapping a $3/gal tax on gasoline would do the trick just fine, and if the revenue raised was used to, say, offset spending on defense of the oil countries or to pay down the debt (or, horrors, refunded to the taxpayer), I’d be a happy camper. God forbid we think of pricing in a minimum amount of liability insurance into a gallon of gas (so that you only pay insurance while you drive)..

(Of course, leave diesel alone, since the price of diesel affects a lot more than SUV commuters..)

 
 
 
 
Comment by pos
2008-05-09 14:18:07

Secondary effects creating a recession. I see CITI bank has a lot more downsizing planned. Selling $500 Billion of their assets in this market has got to hurt a little. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080509/citigroup.html

 
 
Comment by RJT
2008-05-09 12:04:39

I know there was no Canadian housing bubble because “It’s different here!” but…

Housing starts plunge 56%
Calgary area at lowest level since 1991

Calgary Herald

Calgary area housing starts for single-detached homes in April plunged by more than 56 per cent compared with a year ago.

Through a third of the year in 2008, single-detached starts in the Calgary census metropolitan area have not been this low since 1996. And for the month of April alone, this year’s number was the lowest since 1991.

“New home sales are competing with a record level of active resale listings in a lower demand environment and this is impacting new home construction,” said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

“This is a very competitive market for new home sales as market conditions favour the buyers. Lower demand is caused by weaker net migration and slower move-up buying is resulting in fewer new home sales.”

He said after massive home construction in 2006 and 2007, there are new homes for sale on the resale market that have never been lived in and “that tells you the cleansing of the investor and the speculator leaving the market.”

“They’re still not out of the market completely,” said Louie.

http://tinyurl.com/5vamme

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 12:09:18

“my business just died”

“like wading through Jell-O”

Where was this brand of candor in 2007? These people were such true believers it wasn’t until their own homes are in default do we get any degree of sincerity.

 
Comment by JP
2008-05-09 12:11:02

It must only be the ghetto area in Greenwich that is down 13.7%, because it’s different there, as I’m sure you all realize.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-09 12:12:51

“‘These are tough economic times,’ said Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. ‘The fact is a lot of economists, a lot smarter than I am, didn’t see this coming. A year ago, no one expected us to have the problems we are to the extent we are.’”

Add “bought and paid for” economists to a long list of people that are smarter than Villaraigosa. Sort of like fogging a mirror and getting a mortgage a few years ago. If you have a pulse, you just might be smarter than Villaraigosa. It really can be helpful to have enough intelligence and judgment to get sound advice from the right people.
I’d much rather see him take down Los Angeles than California through his incompetence.

Comment by Brandon
2008-05-09 12:28:57

I’m curious how things are going to play out in the school districts and govenments in Cali. Everyone counted on the gravy train to continue. My cousing works for the Clovis school district (near Fresno) and they over-hired by 40 teachers and are on a hiring freeze all because the housing market took a dump.

Comment by John
2008-05-09 12:49:15

Yeah, the Clovis school district covers about half of Fresno because Fresno is so incompetent that no one wants to send their kids there.

California is a budgetary disaster and has been getting progressively worse since the 1970s. There may be a lot more municipal bankruptcies like Vallejo just initiated–so the cities can break the grossly overpaid and over-pensioned fire, police, and teacher’s unions.

The CA government is broke at all levels, and must cut services or raise taxes. The RE bubble disguised this a bit, but the problem has been severe since the dotcom meltdown.

A similar story was reported a while back for Florida…schools were shocked in the fall by how few students showed up…

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2008-05-09 13:17:38

“The CA government is broke at all levels, and must cut services or raise taxes.”

But the scary thing is, their tax rates are already running 2x AZs.

What they NEED to do is start checking citizenship papers when people apply for jobs, apply for govt. handouts, rent housing, open bank accounts, etc. etc.

Chase the illegals out!

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Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-05-09 14:00:03

No, what they NEED to do is start fining 100k per illegal hired. And enforce it.

That’d be the end of illegal immigration right there. They don’t come because the border is that easy to cross… they don’t come because hollywood is awesome… they come for the money. And people give them the money because it’s cheap to hire them and pay no benifits and no payroll taxes.

Hit the employers. That will end it. Trying to keep them out of the hospitals is treating a symptom. Businesses hiring them is the cancer. Excise the cancer.

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-05-09 14:41:28

The LaTimes did a feature story on SoCal car washes being busted for not only hiring illegals, but paying less than minimum wage:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-carwash23mar23,0,3592975.story

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2008-05-09 15:58:11

Here’s the thing though. I was watching this program about farming on the History channel. It mentioned that by and large, a HUGE percentage of US farms have been able to provide inexpensive food for decades because of what?- cheap illegal immigrant labor. Florida cracked down on illegal immigration a few years ago and now the orange growers there can’t compete with Chile or Brazil who have even cheaper labor options. So while I’m also not really thrilled about illegal immigration because for one- it isn’t fair to the immigrants who get paid less than they should, I can see how that if we were to suddenly rid illegal immigration, things would suddenly get very expensive-especially food in addition to how much it costs now. Just something to think about.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-09 17:19:07

Let us hire illegals and the savings are passed on to you!
um.. yeah.. sure.

When all the costs of illegals in the system are balanced out there’s a distinct negative return. Maybe an American orange is a few cents cheaper but how about medical, police, prison costs, education and.. so forth?

lemme dust this off:
Just put a bounty on employers.. If they hire you (you being an illegal) and you snitch to this 800-number, you get $10,000 and a plane ticket home. And we’ll take care of that employer..

 
 
Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-09 14:40:08

My much lauded school district is 4 mil in the hole. They are terrified Yolo county is going to take them over which would be poetic justice considering how Davis treats the “uncouth masses” in the rest of the county.

They built a new jr high as part of some development plan and were going to close the old one down. Now everyone is screaming that they want to keep all the schools funded and retain all the special programs like french, music, and athletics. They are going to make up that 4 mil by asking for donations and having bake sales. I kid you not, these are the most clueless people I’ve ever seen. Look up the People’s Vanguard of Davis some day for some truely excellent entitlement-class hand wringing.

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Comment by Wickedheart
2008-05-09 17:43:44

John

I’ll bet you couldn’t hang 20 minutes with my husbands kindergardners and I guarantee if you spent the day doing his job you wouldn’t call him overpaid.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2008-05-09 15:49:04

California schools are phucked. The public school in my area is getting a 4 million dollar cut in funding. Say bye-bye to gym, art, music, and anything else other than the Three “R,s”- Reading,Riten, and Rithmatic. So completely different from where I grew up where all the public schools were basically fine. Out here, people pay mega-bucks to live anywhere near a decent school, and now those schools are getting cuts… which might also mean property values will go down as a result.

I can’t help but feel what an irony this all is. People make claims that California is so progressive and great yet they can’t even keep the schools open.

Comment by Giacomo
2008-05-09 16:42:02

It isn’t so much a lack of funding, it’s the burden of hundreds of thousands of Spanish-speaking children that drags down the performance of CA public schools — and it’s refusing to acknowledge the source of that problem that will keep “progressives” from finding a solution, no matter how much money they have to throw around.

And don’t get me started about teachers’ unions.

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Comment by az_lender
2008-05-09 17:16:32

Oh go ahead Giacomo, get started about teachers’ unions. I was a member of one for a few years, that’s why I hold them in greater contempt than any other unions. All that lip-service to the children’s welfare, when it’s the members’ wallets that trump everything.

 
Comment by Waiting in LA
2008-05-09 19:37:29

Maybe when the recession really kicks into gear all those people in LA who put their kids in private school will put them back in public school out of necessity. Affluent parents in the San Fernando Valley who can afford it seem to climb all over each other for the best private schools. That leaves only people who can’t afford private school in public schools. It will be very interesting to see how it all shakes out. Especially because I am a probationary teacher in a public high school in the SFV.

 
Comment by Dan
2008-05-09 22:44:44

Don’t get caried away with this private schools BS. I used to have a boss who was saying on various ocations that Beverly Hills is Beverly Hills becouse of Beverly Hill School District ( you know this bad PUBLIC schools) This obsesion with private schools is not smaller bubble than the one we are talking here. First of all there is no comparision Public-Private becouse private don’t have obligation to test on standard way so you never know where they stand. I think if they do so many people will feel the way when you trow a $100 in the fireplace to get warm…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-09 12:13:59

Greenwich Mean Time

“I decided to take a look at Greenwich, CT, one of my favorite enclaves of multi, multi-million-dollar homes. Existing home sales in Greenwich are down 37.5 percent in March from a year ago and prices are down 13.7 percent. What’s even more disturbing, given the median income of the typical Greenwich homeowner, the number of Greenwich foreclosures in March was twice what it was a year ago.”

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 13:18:27

Uh… isn’t that where all the genius hedge fund managers live?

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 20:55:34

uhhh….how many 401k’s and pension plans are managed by these geniuses? IMO, the next crises will be these geniuses cashing out other’s retirement accounts for their benefit.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 12:24:17

“Now we know how we’re going to pay our college tuition bills down the road”

NO. This is how assumed “someone else” was going to pay your college tuition bills down the road!

Can you believe these people? Your House: It’s an IRA! It’s a 401K! It’s a College 529 Savings Plan! It even makes your whites brighter!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 12:37:47

And to think that my parents paid for my college by:

1. Having two fulltime jobs — one for each parent.
2. Living frugally and saving up the money.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 13:22:46

Arizona Slim,

Well then they were definitely born at the wrong time my friend! Now’adays we just jack up the price of our home to 20% over what the neighbor got and it covers it PLUS a Cancun vacation!

Again, why go to the hassle of setting up an IRA ( real tough) or college account when your house can fund all of that tax free? And I can’t believe the builders are talking about getting more “breaks”?

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-09 14:22:00

or college- healthcare ,anything you want your nieghbor to pay for is taxed/spent and made “AFFORDABLE”

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Comment by B. Durbin
2008-05-09 14:06:20

I paid for college myself through good advice. (Work your butt off in high school and apply for every scholarship you have a remote chance of getting.)

Okay, technically I’m still paying for college, but the scholarships covered tuition, not living expenses.

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-09 15:49:58

Dang, DinOR, I needed some help with the white sock/undies.
If only I had bought a house.

“It even makes your whites brighter! “

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-05-09 12:32:55

The nationwide housing slump isn’t keeping adventurous single women like Roxanne Williams from buying homes in the Victor Valley. ‘There’s no point in me paying rent and I want security for myself and my children,’ said Williams.”

“‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule, a broker and president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors.”

Oh, dear. Talk about drinking your own Kool-Aid. House as security? I feel just the opposite! When we bought our first place, in 1994, I had been in the area for only six months prior. To me, it felt like a huge ball and chain, a weight hanging over me. Even now I feel that way, to some extent.

Comment by Xiaoding
2008-05-09 13:06:06

It’s like single mom’s are stupid or sumthin!!

Comment by vile
2008-05-09 14:41:28

LOL!

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-09 15:52:42

If only the landlord said, ‘just decorate how you want,no problem”, then they might not have quite the drive to own.
Just paint, people, then paint again when moving.
Why do you have to own, to decorate,gosh all the gay guys decorate up a storm, owners or Not.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 16:59:50

How dare you? I’m a single mother and I find it very insulting that you should question my judgment. Millions of other women like me work hard every day and through no fault of our own find ourselves in situations where we have to care for our kids. Do we really need jerks like you ridiculing us as we face the every day realities of life and struggle to raise good human beings? You should be ashamed of yourself. I hope your unit falls off one day. Then I will make fun of you.

There! I have taken care of the self-righteous PC response to Xidoding’s comment. Somebody owes me $5.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 21:01:29

don’t worry congress will take care of single moms and their kiddies and you and me will be stuck with the bill. sh*t…we are paying for the illegals and not complaining…what’s a few more single moms and their kiddies. what i wanna know, where is the line forming because, sh*t, I would like a handout too, since I am already paying for everybody else.

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Comment by housingtracker
2008-05-10 00:16:57

Most of us single moms had to leave a bad relationship or the father could not keep up with his false promises of being a good father figure. Good for you for sticking up for us!!!

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Comment by Mike in Miami
2008-05-09 13:40:16

Having a huge payment on an illiquid asset that’s decreasing in value plus insurance, plus taxes that can go up as local government sees fit to cover their budget is not my definition of security. I reckon’ being a single mom is not correlated with being smart.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 14:06:14

“taxes that can go up as local government sees fit”

Oh and they ALWAYS “see fit” don’t they Mike?

Nice synopsis. Oh and where exactly is it that single moms found that 20% down payment again?

Comment by exeter
2008-05-09 15:07:38

“Oh and where exactly is it that single moms found that 20% down payment again? ”

HD74Man? lmao…. I know for a fact he hasn’t seen this post yet. He’ll be on it like a $hit fly going to a rodeo when he does see it.

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Comment by mikey
2008-05-09 16:12:02

The Victorville City Elders should have hyped the EVENT and sold tickets to the “single moms” all buying houses in Victorhell.

This massacre could be far more entertaining and profitable to them than the Friday night shootings and stabbings at their local Wal-mart :)

 
 
 
 
Comment by gascap
2008-05-09 15:37:42

“‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule, a broker and president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors.”

Assuming that perhaps half of realtors are male, 10 out of 30 female realtors being single moms seems extremely high, maybe it’s hard to stay married when you’re a serial liar.

Comment by Michael Emmel
2008-05-09 15:54:08

Heard a strip club shutdown nearby about a year ago not sure its related.
What is it with single moms being singled out for financial reasons ?
I’ve seen this before kinda like those caveman commercials.
Houses are so cheap even “single moms” are buying them are you going the let a “single mom” have something you don’t ?
I guess they are considered the bottom of the pile in the game of keeping up with the jones’s.

Anyway comments like this put me off big time.

 
 
Comment by Rich
2008-05-09 15:46:58

“‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule, a broker and president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors.”

I thought rule #1 was drug dealers never do their own product.

 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2008-05-10 07:39:14

I have never seen the word “stupid” replaced with the word “adventurous” before. I guess my Thesaurus is out of date or something.

 
 
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-09 12:33:53

“Nobody feels that smart anymore”

Wrong answer, Dilbert……..

Anybody who figured out in 2003-2006, that 10-20% YOY price increases, were unsustainable, or had enough backbone to refuse to be price-gouged, is feeling pretty smart right now.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-09 12:38:21

Well THAT’S a good point. You’re making my Friday, thanks.

Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-09 13:31:17

Almost as smart as last fall and end of March, when I took my 15 year old and her boyfriend to “Late Night at the Phog” at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence.

Told them at the time, “These guys have an excellent shot at being the National Champions this year”

 
 
Comment by deeogee
2008-05-09 15:36:58

I didn’t have the foresight, but I had the ‘ backbone to refuse to be price-gouged’ [the Irish in me]. I don’t feel smart, just fortunate and very grateful.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 21:11:09

hey irish, if you are buying gas then you are getting gouged.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-09 12:34:50

“If the news isn’t bad enough, I’ve been hearing from readers around the country who are in shock that their home equity lines of credit have been shut off. This is what a stuck housing market looks like. Nobody feels that smart anymore.”

2003 Shock & Awe: Precision bombing of Baghdad

2008 Shock & Awe: Precision cut-off of funds

Comment by Brandon
2008-05-09 12:59:36

how could they?! How are people in my neck of the woods going to buy a new $35k truck to tow their $40k ski boat?

Comment by hoz
2008-05-09 13:11:17

Screw the boat! How are they going to buy tires or do minor auto repairs for their 2003 POS.

“…Disruption of income now means, well, I have to replace two tires (on my car), or my water heater broke,’ he said.”…”

Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-09 14:12:50

If you haven’t bought tires lately, you can give yourself a heart attack by pricing out a set of name-brand tires to fit on 18-20 inch wheels (a common size, nowadays)

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Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-09 15:17:29
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by combotechie
2008-05-09 12:53:12

Buffett and Munger; ya gotta love these two…

Munger: “I think you have to start with the idea that a lot of current troubles are richly deserved.”

Buffett: “Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without hell.”

Painfully blunt, both of them.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 12:58:03

They don’t make ‘em like that anymore.

 
Comment by sartre
2008-05-09 15:05:52

wonder how Buffet’s BAC and WFC investment is doing and that AIG, how about that!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-09 17:25:17

And the fact that he gets wood every time that bird-faced little skank Becky Quick blinks an eye in his direction has to call his judgment and eyesight into question. The guy has $60 billion. He could be placing his capital assets into something better than Becky Quick.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-09 21:17:02

uhhh…would that be Becky Quick or Becky Skank or possibly even Becky Quick-Skank.

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Comment by JR
2008-05-10 07:38:30

“People tend to forget how well the system worked when we had rules that prevented this complexity and aggression,” Munger said.

Preach it.

 
 
Comment by dc-renter
2008-05-09 13:05:33

Well, I’m still waiting for reality to settle in my neck of the woods. Any decent housing in DC metro is still way out of reach for most of us.

Comment by Watching and Waiting
2008-05-09 13:28:07

You can say that again, DC renter. Montgomery County is still outrageous. Climbing inventory but with poured-in-concrete pricing. I am honestly starting to think it will not be coming down around here. Which means I’ll need to relocate, as no way am I paying $350 for a starter townhouse.

Comment by polly
2008-05-09 14:39:18

However, there are glimpses that some of the most outrageous wishing prices in condos are over - just the most outrageous, not normal outrageous. Developer of The Monterey at the corner of Montrose and 355 went bankrupt and sold to a new developers who is taking it rental. Old wishing price for a 3 bedroom was “staring in the low 600’s.” New wishing rent for a 3 bedroom is starting at $2000 a month depending on finishes (and, presumably, view, corner/not corner, floor, etc.).

And you can walk to either Twinbrook or White Flint metro stops and quite a few stores.

I’d say that we are just way behind the curve, not completely out of the game.

 
Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-09 14:57:47

On the relocating plan, better move fast.

We’ve had recruiters calling us but they are all from places with worse housing markets then ours such as Johns Hopkins, MIT and the mothership - NIH itsself. I do ask what they offer for relo packages but they never come close to being enough.

What I want is to picked get picked up by a univ like Wash Univ in St Louis but anyone who is smart is already chasing those jobs.

 
 
Comment by ChrisO
2008-05-09 13:45:43

Oh, it’ll come down. These things work from the outside in. Check and see what’s going on further out from town, and you’ll see a lot of pain.

Comment by dc_renter
2008-05-09 16:05:21

Well way out by Herndon/Sterling things are “down” i.e. a previous 700k SFH is now 500k. But my employer, Fairfax County Public School, is crying, screaming, howling how poor they are and want to take away our measly 3% Cost of living raise next year. So, not only are housing prices (heck, 1bdrm CONDO prices) out of range, but my salary is in effect being lowered as the cost of food/rent/gas/clothing soars. I really do think IT IS DIFFERENT HERE.

 
 
 
Comment by jjinla
2008-05-09 13:05:44

“‘These are tough economic times,’ said Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. ‘The fact is a lot of economists, a lot smarter than I am, didn’t see this coming.”

He makes it sound like being smarter than he is an actual mark of distinction. This moron is turning LA into (more of) a 3rd world country. His latest budget basically eliminates everything but police and gang enforcement.

If he weren’t so gun-ho about letting every illegal and their familia come here for free, we wouldn’t need so many police in the fist place!

OK, off my soapbox for now…….

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 13:09:23

Hey, that’s MY soapbox!

 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-09 14:02:34

“His latest budget basically eliminates everything but police and gang enforcement. ”

But he still won’t let the police check the immigration status of gang members. Would that change if his latest mistress got shot?

Oh, and we need a bigger soapbox.

Comment by Starve_the _agents
2008-05-09 18:19:56

Ha, ha, ha!

Make it an ‘ariel’ soapbox…

The fragrance of laundry washed in that stuff mixed with the smell of BO after ten hours of ditch digging…

It’s bad enough to gag a maggot…

 
 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-09 13:09:23

‘There’s no point in me paying rent and I want security for myself and my children,’ said Williams.”

I fail to see how having a large debt hanging over you makes you “Secure”. At least if you are renting and lose your job you don’t have to worry about foreclosure, and since renting is cheaper you could actully have some savings which would make you more secure than being house poor.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-05-09 13:13:19

““‘I have probably 10 single moms at my office out of 60 Realtors and they’re all buying homes,’ said Caroll Yule, a broker and president of the Victor Valley Association of Realtors.””

Well, in the Victor Valley, there are A LOT to choose from, so go crazy, knock yourself out.

Comment by Brandon
2008-05-09 13:24:25

The single mom knife catcher club?

 
 
Comment by dante
2008-05-09 13:16:04

Anyone got an angle on what effect the credit crisis is having on cropland in the Southeast?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 13:48:57

It sure isn’t making it rain.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-09 13:21:44

“Most of the women buying in the Victor Valley are single mothers” and
“A lot of women are either choosing not to marry, or those with children are choosing not to re-marry rather than complicating the child’s life by trying to find a new husband said Yule. “I see a great commitment to family by this generation. They secure their future and they’re not looking for a man to stake their future on.”

I see, so Victor Valley should be renamed the Man Haters Valley where a family excludes those nasty father figures. What a screwed up bunch of kids this area is going to have if Mom thinks security comes in the form of a mortgage.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 13:59:08

Oh, Mo, you are playing my song!

Spent the better part of yesterday evening at a rezoning hearing in Downtown Tucson. My homies and I were there to oppose a rezoning in our ‘hood.

However, there was another neighborhood ahead of us, and it included a clueless mother with two toddler boys. If the word “discipline” ever flashed on her brain-screen, we would have been shocked and awed. I mean, those two kids were running wild!

Mind you, this other neighborhood was one of those suburbias on the southeast side of Tucson. Where people live so they can get away from people like…

…us.

We’re a walking, talking, no b%llsh4t-taking example of a diverse neighborhood. Last night’s posse included a black guy, two Hispanic guys (including one tattooed fella who kept the rest of us amused with cutting remarks about the out of control toddlers), a lesbian couple, a Jewish guy, and a few of us palefaces.

 
Comment by OhMyHowFun
2008-05-09 14:09:13

Is it just me or does anyone else see future red light districts springin up in these hoods?

Comment by SaladSD
2008-05-09 14:46:29

It’s Tampa time!

Comment by bob
2008-05-09 16:16:38

do you differentiate Tampa from St. Petes? Is there any industry besides tourism in St. Petes

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Comment by Rich
2008-05-09 16:21:31

“What a screwed up bunch of kids this area is going to have if Mom thinks security comes in the form of a mortgage.”
You mean kids like this ?
http://www.vvdailypress.com/news/mart_6307___article.html/wal_arrested.html

 
Comment by mikey
2008-05-09 16:24:32

It’s not so crazy. Knowing the social and entertainment layout of Victor Valley.. the children of those 10 single mom’s probably all have the same mean nasty father :)

 
 
Comment by INLAND EMPIRE
2008-05-09 13:45:31

“isn’t keeping adventurous single women like Roxanne Williams from buying homes in the Victor Valley” is right. I live in this area and boy if she drink the kool-aid and buys without a lot of research she going to be sorry. House here are starting to flat out. Homes that where 300k are around 149-189k. With two on my block sold in the last month there appears buyers are coming back as well. So signs are encouraging that the price buyers will pay in this area is close. There is a large inventory of homes built since 2003 however it is still 50+ miles to most employment centers. So yes Miss Williams is probably going to get a nice house that is close to value but it not actually that great a deal as the Realtor want her to think The area will not increase in value for years this is still the desert. People who moved here where looking for low cost housing open spaces and the climate. The bubble cause the spike in buyers to move out here with out that reason of quick money this area will trend back to 1998 price. Which saw a flat .5% rise in housing cost for the last 50 years. My cousin move here in 1989 built 4600sq.ft 5/4 on a 5 acre parcel for 159k plus the 22k for the land and the well he had to dig for water. The house is only worth maybe 320k. today. Because in the middle of the desert it takes a buyers who wants live here then you can judge what your house is worth.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-05-09 14:48:13

Does your cousin wield an axe, and go by the name Johnny?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-09 14:33:05

“If Greenwich is falling, perhaps the super-rich are not so immune to this housing crash as we’ve been saying all along.”

Perhaps those of us HBB posters who have long maintained that rich areas are not immune from housing busts are seeing some vindication now.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-09 16:22:24

Professor Bear, got together w/a good friend this morning from my former town known for its deep pocketed individuals.

She said she’s had so many people approach her to give them e-bay business advice that she’s thinking of offering a seminar. She leaned over to me in the coffee shop and whispered, “This slowdown is really hitting eveyone, ya know.”

All of could think of was “When the tide goes out, that’s when you get to see who’s swimming naked.”

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-09 17:12:20

CarrieAnn, are you near me? 92054.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-09 18:24:11

Guess not Ouro.

My friends are 130’s, not 920s. But let me tell you some of the nicest people I know have two sheltie’s, some nice rentals where coyotes, deer and wild turkeys frequent and a smart attitude about how to go forward. (Now if only they could sell their FLA property)

Your east coast seperated at birth twin perhaps….

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Comment by measton
2008-05-09 18:11:29

Their are a lot of rich people who think they are super rich people. For the super rich a multimillion dollar home is a rounding error in their total net worth.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-09 14:35:26

“‘These folks are in big negative equity positions. If there is any disruption to their income at all, they have a major problem. And disruption to income doesn’t mean what it used to. Disruption to income ten years ago meant death, divorce or major disability. Disruption of income now means, well, I have to replace two tires (on my car), or my water heater broke,’ he said.”

Disruption of income means that YOY home equity gains through 2005 have been supplanted by YOY losses.

 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-05-09 15:00:12

Nobody feels that smart anymore.

Well I do. I could have easily knocked back the Kool*Aid. The temptation was ridiculous around me. But I resisted. I searched for answers. I found this blog years ago. And I feel smart!

Oh, and, I’m a single mom too. See, we’re not all victims in the media.

Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-09 15:38:44

“Oh, and, I’m a single mom too. See, we’re not all victims in the media.”

The media only wants Sob stories, you need more suffering in your life and far less brain cells to warrant a story.

 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-05-09 15:28:26

ANB Financial, Bentonville AR.-bank failure numero dos, in the year of our lord 2008.

FDIC default page got updates……snuck one in whilst nobody was watchin.

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-09 15:48:18

Hoz, Im taking the under on the bank failure line of 1000….does not include individual branch operations, just the Corp, entity.

 
 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-09 15:41:39

Just had an earthquake.
Itty bitty one,
Not the big one,
but glad I don’t own the condo.
it made me have to adjust my bra.lol

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-09 17:09:15

Wasn’t that just a sonic boom? We felt it in San Diego too.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-09 18:50:36

a 4.1 according to the USGS earthquake site.

 
 
Comment by John Gruskos
2008-05-09 16:22:24

“Disruption of income now means, well, I have to replace two tires (on my car), or my water heater broke,’ he said.”

So says Mark Zandi of Moody’s. (now)

Back in 2006 Jon Lonski, also of Moody’s, thought the low savings rate was not a problem because people were getting rich with appreciating stocks and real estate.

 
Comment by Pen
2008-05-09 16:35:42

test

 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by catspit1
2008-05-09 16:49:29

wow i thought Al Sharpton was like a comedian. How can you get pissed at him? Irony, right? Like Colbert…

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-09 16:54:07

Al is happy being the Joker in a deck stacked with 52 race cards.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-09 16:57:02

Oh, for crying in a bucket, it’s Al Sharpton. Waddya expect? A logical, well-reasoned argument?

 
Comment by Pen
2008-05-09 17:03:42

hahahaha…that read like it should have been on the Onion…

I think the Barney Frank, Dodd, et. al. forced cram down, if it happens, will be what truly ends home ownership opportunity for the groups Sharpton identifies. The notion of having to write-down mtges to 85% of market value will most certainly forced very stringent lending requirements? wouldn’t it?

Comment by txchick57
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-09 17:59:42

Sharpton is the greatest. He’s ace on getting the right wing loons nattering.

Comment by flat
2008-05-09 20:08:32

he helped get several killed in poukepsie, NY
word

 
 
 
 
Comment by Sarah
2008-05-09 18:48:46

What is the deal with all these multiple offers? I’m looking for a house in Riverside, CA. and there are actually multiple offers on some of these houses!! Ok, so they are the large houses offered at lower prices, but I’m surprised at how many people are willing to pay asking price and higher.

The problem is the lower priced/nicer houses are trickling in, so everyone goes after the one. Very irritating. How are prices supposed to go down when this is happening.

 
Comment by Muggy
2008-05-09 19:00:20

OT (I’ve had a little grape juice tonight): My wife and I just had a discussion about masking our position from our acquaintences. We’re saving, paying down debt, getting ahead etc.

Not totally happening for everyone else.

Is anyone else, “playing broke.”

Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-09 19:17:05

I am, until the lawyer gets the change of custody issue settled, and the ex-wife has to start paying ME Child Support.

Then, I’m going to go out and buy a new Corvette………:)

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-05-09 19:33:42

all the time!!! looking and acting broke. i do not want anyone asking me for handouts.

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-05-09 19:58:55

I consider both of these comments as bullish on all fronts. Commodity, Currency, Debt, and Equity.

 
Comment by dude
2008-05-09 22:00:17

I just bought another 10 year old Jetta.

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-05-09 19:37:31

UPDATE 3-FACTBOX-Capital raising by financial institutions

NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - Financial companies around the
globe have scrambled to raise capital to offset massive
write-offs. Below are the largest capital infusions announced
by financial institutions since the credit crisis began,
totaling more than $200 billion.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2146641120080509?rpc=44

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-09 20:01:50

pretty raw.

its good to be the king.

 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-05-09 19:50:43

in my cups.

 
Comment by knockwurst
2008-05-09 20:14:17

Why not do something shocking: skip the mid-life crisis car and save the money for your kid.

Comment by Bankrupt in Appalachia
2008-05-10 06:51:11

Don’t you know child support payments are only to be spent on the whims of the parent, not saved for the good of the child?

 
 
Comment by DenverLowBaller
2008-05-09 21:32:23

Anyone catch 30 Rock last night?
Jack(baldwin) - You need a pen? (immediatley after taking his new position in some bs dept. in Washinton.)
Cooter(brodrick) - you get used it. (writing with the end of something.)
Jack - We don’t have pens?
Cooter - We are not in a recession!

I fell off the couch.

Have a great weekend! Subprime is Contained……

 
Comment by Misstrial
2008-05-10 09:12:44

RE the realtor’s comment relative to Las Cruces: NOT true!
There are actually 1800+ homes here for sale and that figure does not include foreclosures/bank owned.

Prices have dropped with many FSBO sellers who refuse to lower prices. Others who are pressed, have lowered prices by $50k+. Please avoid any street with the initial “FVD.” Severely floods, that’s why. Lots of spec homes owned there and trying to be sold by local realtors.

Its worse than that guy stated. And the people from California (very few, actually) who recently came here are not here by choice, but were transferred here from the Bay Area (what a culture shock to move here after living there). My understanding is that they intend to move BACK when positions there become available.

~Misstrial

 
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