The Housing Bubble

The Monitor reports from Texas. “Two national magazines have pointed to Hidalgo County’s job and real estate markets as among the best in the nation. The area has seen record home sales and prices during the last five years. At the end of 2007, the median home price was $106,300, up 25 percent from five years earlier. ‘The long range for job growth and population growth make it a desirable area to own a home,’ Randall Allsup, a real estate analyst with Metrostudy, said of the McAllen metro area. ‘If you are willing to own your home for more than three years, buyers stand to make some money.’”

“A glut of vacant housing lots and a dwindling interest in new homes are leading many McAllen developers to look into a new direction - condos and townhouses.”

“Almost counterintuitive in a region where a new home can cost as little as $80,000, developers across the Upper Rio Grande Valley are turning to community dwellings to target young professionals, retirees and Mexican nationals.”

“Several new condominium projects, mostly in McAllen, are expected to add hundreds of new units to the area during the next 18 months. Developers plan to break ground this month on a $16 million high-end condo project in South McAllen and another group is planning a high-rise tower in Edinburg.”

“‘It’s kind of a gamble because it’s out of the norm,’ said Fred Harms, a developer of a town home project in central McAllen.”

“Mortgage market problems and oversupply of new homes significantly hurt sales during the last nine months of 2007, but real estate agents and homeowners are crossing their fingers and hoping the worst is over.”

“‘The Valley appears to be adjusting to get back to a normal market,’ said Metrostudy’s Randall Allsup.”

“The average sale price for homes in the area took a hit during the first quarter of this year, falling nearly $20,000 from the fourth quarter of 2007. The median sale price for a home in Hidalgo County was $89,400 in March, the lowest since April 2004.”

“There is currently a 14.4-month supply of homes on the local market, which is extremely high for any market, according to Allsup. Also, the Valley’s large number of low-income residents means the tightening of the lending market is hurting this area more than most.”

From The Sun. “Quarter-million dollar homes up for auction with bids starting at $80,000. What’s the catch?”

“With real estate not moving as quickly as it once was…many developers are turning to the auction process as a means to move their product – with a quickness.”

“‘For builders who have excess inventory, the time is really what’s costing them now and if the auction can eliminate some of that time, that’s a cost savings to them,’ said Texas A&M University Research Economist Jim Gaines.”

“Bob Stratton, President of Verandah Development which owns Champions Townhomes, said they chose the method of sale to ‘create urgency’ because the homes aren’t selling at the pace they had anticipated.”

“Built while the market was booming, by the time the project was complete, things had changed, he said. ‘We have a number of people who are interested in buying townhomes, but don’t want to pull the trigger because they continue to read national headlines,’ he said. ‘And the national headlines aren’t necessarily affecting the Houston market.’”

“Sheldon Good President Alan Kravets said the company conducted successful auctions all over the country in the last year including Dallas, Boston, California and Chicago. ‘It’s interesting this is not troubled property,’ Kravetz said. ‘This is just a smart builder who is saying that they are being sold too slowly. Let’s just sell a bunch of them now and the buyers can get the benefit.’”

“Kravets said Verandah Builders engaged their firm to sell out the development so they could move forward to other projects.”

“‘Despite what people may have heard, now is the best time to buy because the market for residential properties is the lowest it’s ever been,’ said Kravets. ‘Prices are going down, but that means that prices on extraordinary homes are going down as well.’”

The American Statesman. “Equity Residential, the nation’s largest publicly traded owner and operator of multifamily housing, is pulling out of Texas and selling its entire Austin apartment portfolio, totaling nearly 3,000 units. Equity has sold its Houston portfolio, and a pullout from Texas would mean sales of 17 properties in the Dallas area and two in San Antonio.”

“Marty McKenna, a spokesman for Chicago-based Equity, said the firm is leaving because it has ‘been investing in markets that have better long-term prospects.’ He did not elaborate.”

“Although there is much investor interest in the Austin rental market, Robin Davis, president of Austin Investor Interests, said, there are a few concerns, including the nearly 10,000 new units expected to be completed in the next year.”

“But Austin’s multifamily market isn’t prone to being overbuilt, partly because of environmental restrictions, said George Deuillet, senior investment adviser for an apartment investor research firm.”

“‘We have some insulation for being overbuilt,’ he said. ‘It is a really good time to sell because we have a large demand, but the fundamentals of the Austin multifamily market remain strong, so it is a good time to buy, too.’”

The News Journal. “The Texas real estate market remains stronger than much of the rest of the nation with the Longview area doing its part to buck that national trend, according to James P. Gaines, research economist with the Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.”

“In a several county East Texas area that includes Longview, Marshall and Tyler, Gaines said homes are still appreciating at about 4 percent to 5 percent a year. The average price of home sold in the Longivew area in 2007 was about $124,000 — more than double the $60,000 average price of 1990, he said.”

“‘Rural land prices in East Texas went up 20 percent last year and I don’t know when that’s going to stop,’ he said. ‘This area is a tremendous area in attracting retirees and for population growth in general you’re poised for a boom.’”

“Due to problems on the national level, mortgage lending requirements have tightened up, while in Texas housing continues to increase about 4 percent a year. While that means home ownership can be a good investment in Texas, it also means fewer people may qualify for loans.”

“‘In Texas, 54 percent of all households can’t afford a $125,000 home — if they could find one at that price,’ Gaines said.”

The Dallas Morning News. “There are plenty of houses for sale in North Texas – more than 45,000. And prices in many neighborhoods have dropped from recent peaks.”

“But what’s missing in this year’s spring housing market is the usual rush of buyers. Through the first four months of 2008, home sales are off 15 percent in the area, according to statistics released Wednesday from Texas A&M University’s Real Estate Center and the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.”

“Agent Barry Hoffer says buyers are stuck on slow. ‘Even with interest rates in the 5 percent range, buyers are taking their time in making a decision,’ Mr. Hoffer said. ‘They want to make sure that they can make the best deal that they can and are not chasing properties as they did a year or two ago.’”

“April was the ninth straight month of double-digit sales declines in the area. The recent decline in affluent home sales continued in April. So far this year, there has been as much as a 29 percent drop in purchases of homes priced above $600,000.”

“Since the last housing recession here in the early 1990s, the tax values of homes in the Dallas area have jumped about 70 percent.”

“While the rest of the country has suffered double-digit home price declines, in North Texas the drop so far has been small – only about 4 percent in the most recent survey.”

“Dallas is no stranger to home price drops. In the last big housing downturn – brought on 20 years ago by a regional recession and years of overbuilding – home prices fell at an even greater rate than we are now seeing in some California and Florida markets.”

“Between 1987 and 1990, the value of a then-average-priced $100,000 home in the Dallas-Fort Worth area fell by about 30 percent, according to surveys done in that period.”

“And it was seven years from the peak of 1980s home prices to the turnaround in the market in the early 1990s. Even the most pessimistic home market forecasts for North Texas don’t talk about that kind of debacle.”

“‘All bets are off, however, if we lose 50-70,000 jobs around here like we did in the late ’80s,’ said Dallas appraiser Chuck Dannis.”

“‘Some neighborhoods are holding up well in values, while others are suffering,’ said appraiser Jack Towers. ‘Overall, volume of sales is down significantly; I can attest to that.’”

“‘Just about every report I have done in the past year or so, the sales volume has dropped to about half what it was the previous year,’ he said. ‘This has to eventually work its way into an oversupply of listings creating more price competition.’”

“The high volume of home foreclosures here – almost 20,000 in 2007 – is also adding to the number of for-sale signs popping up across towns.”

“The developer of Dallas’ big Victory complex is shifting gears for the next phase of construction. Ross Perot Jr. said Friday that his firm Hillwood will delay work on more high-rise condominiums and hotel rooms to focus on additional office space.”

“Hillwood has postponed construction of Victory’s next big hotel and condo project. The 43-story skyscraper was to include a Mandarin Oriental Hotel, luxury condominiums, office space and retail. It was scheduled to open next year.”

“But Mr. Perot said, ‘Our hotel and condos are on the slow track at the moment. You don’t want to introduce that until people feel better than they do,’ he said.”

“Lenders are also reluctant to finance additional luxury hotel and condominium development, Mr. Perot said, speaking to the National Association of Real Estate Editors.”