Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 15, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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FED… Foreclosure Maps…
http://www.garynorth.com/public/3487.cfm
Fascinating. Truly a bi-coastal and rust belt meltdown. Housing bubbles make strange bedfellows! Oh, and we can’t forget Denver. It is a real rocky mountain high there.
“Hillary country” = “FB country”
I think Obama won Colorado, however…
Figure 5 (which is BTW a funny thing to find in an article titled “Four Maps from the Federal Reserve System”) shows CA and FL with little or no decrease in the house price index from Q4 2006 to Q4 2007. That strikes me as odd considering that those two regions are supposedly leading the charge down. Of course, given what Figure 3 shows, maybe the real fun hasn’t quite started yet.
Asking prices in Carmel Valley (San Diego) remain ridiculous ($900k and up for anything over 2000 sf). I wonder how long before the cracks start to appear. It would certainly be nice to trade my 12 mile commute from Mission Valley for a 1 mile walk/bike ride. Guess I’ll keep waiting.
GTWG,
I believe you mis-read the title. Figure 5 (of 4) shows “any decrease or no change”. The rest of the map shows increases. So the indication is not that prices are steady in the red colors. It is that they are steady or falling. It does not quantify the amount of the falling price, which we all know to be substantial.
Yeah. I got that once the caffeine kicked in. See my comment below. I can’t disagree on NoSingleOne’s impression of Carmel Valley — it really is a bunch of McMansion excess. That said, there are some nice locations sprinkled in, and not everything is cookie cutter. Buying there to be within a mile or two of work and with decent (for CA at least) public schools is not a bad option from my perspective, provided of course that the price drops to something in the “almost reasonable” range. I’m not looking to buy until 2010 or thereabouts, so there’s still plenty of time for the necessary adjustment.
I haven’t lived in San Diego in 12 years…I was a triathlete and would often ride through Sorrento Valley on my way to Fairbanks Ranch or Rancho Santa Fe for my cycling training. Even back then, Carmel Valley was a bunch of ugly overpriced McMansions that most of my buddies at UCSD wouldn’t live in for any amount of money. I could see 900K for Rancho Santa Fe even back then, though…I wonder how much those houses would go for today?
The median list price for Rancho Santa Fe (92067 SFR) listings (according to ziprealty.com) is currently $3,795,000.
Russ Winter has a good post up about the lies that Freddie Mac are trying to pass of in their latest filing. Unfriggin believeable that no one in the financial press EVER feels the necessity of delving into these numbers. I really don’t know how this can be a conspiracy given the number of reporters, etc. However, I can’t see how all these folks seem to toe the line in keeping these lies under wraps. It is mind numbing.
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1647#more-1647
Could it be a tacit conspiracy of collective ignorance?
The path to journalism lies through the english literature department. Not exactly a renowned hideout of numerical analysis.
Don’t worry.
We’re all Level 3 now.
If you don’t like the results, just toss them in Level 3 accounting! I am going to go buy the biggest McMansion I can and then just not make the mortgage payments - I’ll have the bank send the bill to my Level 3 Account, where I can ignore it while considering what the bill should “really be worth.” Hahaha!
Duh. Ignore me. Apparently, I shouldn’t try to read and/or comment on maps with tiny print before coffee has taken full effect. I thought Figure 5 was showing big increases in the non-red areas and little or no decrease in CA and FL. Funny how important those two little letters (”in” vs. “de”) can be.
One crack appeared in attached CV housing yesterday. Realtor card left on every doorstop showing recent sale of 2BR in neighborhood at $440K (from peak of almost $600K). People here are in serious denial, I have heard several owners claim they could still sell right away for $500K+.
5-8 month old data, and pretty useless at this point since the bottom has really fallen out from under the market in those months.
The fine print indicates that the data are OFHEO indexes. I believe these exclude homes above the conforming loan limit, which till recently was capped at $417,000. That pretty much leaves out SFRs in all of coastal California from the index (good choice of price index by the Fed!).
Not sure how increasing the conforming loan limit to $729K in high priced areas may impact the OFHEO price index going forward…
I was surprised w/Figure 5:
Wouldn’t have thought that large an area was still experiencing over 5% increases in 4Q 2007.
Country Wide Must Face Suit… Why, I can’t imagine those fellows did anything wrong, and if they did surely it was for the children.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15countrywide.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Oh, this is going to be interesting. It is about time!! The officers will plead ignorance to the lax underwriting standards leading to this meltdown. In 2006, I sent e-mails to New Century and First Franklin board members and corporate officers telling them the loans they just placed on 3 houses in Sacramento equaled 140% of the purchase price. The result? The did more loans over the next 4 months, in the same subdivision, for higher amounts! I still have the e-mail responses from the corporate officers saved in my files! Some legal eagle might want to use that as Exhibit #1,983 in a long list of criminal and negligent actions by all these idiots.
Indictments. I want indictments.
I think you will see them. Hindsight is always 20/20 and in the light of the new day, the actions of many of these board members and corporate officers look really, really stupid and pathetic. It just bogles the mind to think these idiots were papering loans to sub prime borrowers with no down payment, no verification of income or assets, and then, the underwriters decided they did not even need to impound for taxes and insurance. Very Mickey Mouse and Goofy…..
Hey,
You just insulted Mickey and Goofy. These two are alot smarter than they look.
IMHO the small number of criminal cases will be dwarfed by the Civil cases.
The civil cases will be limited once the lawyers figure out that the there is no way to actually collect the money since you don’t collect a contingent fee until the judgement is paid - not owed, actually paid.
And those are going to be tough cases - argueing over whether the bad income number was filled in before or after the papers were signed, etc. The work will be long, frustrating, dull and badly paid. Good project for a law school legal clinic in large torts and there aren’t enough of them to go around.
I don’t know Polly. Mozillo’s certainly sitting on a pile of bucks and so are other participants. Somebody is going to TRY and figure out a way to make those who profited culpable. I’m wouldn’t lay good odds on them succeeding, but everyone thought Peter Angelos was crazy for trying to sue the tobacco companies. I mean it SAYS that it causes cancer right on the box, and the states in question had been raking in their cut through excise taxes already.
I’ve often wondered when/how a civil case turns into a criminal case. If there are crimes disclosed, does someone refer it to a prosecutor, or does it simply die as a civil matter after the case is settled? Any lawyers out there?
Completely different processes and burdens of proof. A civil case can’t “turn into” a criminal case per se. Of course, evidence uncovered and/or presented in a civil trial can be used in a subsequent criminal case. So, if some sort of criminal wrongdoing is alleged in a civil suit and if ample evidence is produced to convince a willing prosecutor that the “beyond a reasonable doubt” burden can be satisfied in a criminal action, some sort of criminal charges might result as well.
Remember OJ.
Won the criminal, lost the civil later.
Americans’ money worries are growing, L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll finds
Hilarious last line:
When asked where they would invest a hypothetical $1 million, a quarter of those polled said they would buy real estate, more than in any other category.
Looks like we have a ways to go before “acceptance”.
That depends where you buy. Real Estate is a good hedge against inflation. Just don’t buy in Florida or Clownifornia. Agricultural land in quality growing regions (no, Nevada and Arizona don’t count) might still be an excellent investment, even today.
Ag land has been run up considerably here in IL and elsewhere in the Corn Belt. Prices were distorted in part by sprawl and by speculation. Time will tell.
how big are the price runups for good ag land in the US? In Netherlands it seems prices almost doubled over the last two years (but they had been going down before that), currently priced around 4 euro/m2. I don’t think prices are that high if you take a long term view, and certainly not if you compare with land that is zoned for building (I am told that local authorities pay prices in the 20-50 eur/m2 range to farmers, and the final owners pay 200-1000 euro/m2).
Let’s see, a square meter is roughly 1/3000th of an acre. So you’re talking almost $20K/acre.
I have a distant cousin who farms a big acreage in western Kentucky, similar values to Illinois. In the late 1980s (when what was left of my father’s piece of the family farm was sold to him) this land was worth around $1000/acre, tops. I’m guessing it’s worth around $5K/acre now, within a factor of 2.
University of Illinois estimate from 2004 for central Illinois farmland:
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo04_10/fefo04_10.html
A later report at http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/newsletters/fefo07_15/fefo07_15.html estimates a price increase of 78% between 2003 and 2007. That would be about 7,500USD/acre or about 19,000USD/hectare. Note that prices in the second report are estimates for the state of Illinois while prices in the first report are estimates for central Illinois farmland.
Paul in Jax, I thought farmland in Western Kentucky would run about the same as southern Illinois/Indiana. Southern Illinois farmland sells at a discount to central Illinois prices.
Sounds like we’re in the ballpark - there is a nice pocket of farmland in W. Ky. that is quite flat and very good and productive with better soil than further south and longer growing season than further north - but agree that central Illinois probably a little higher and so my $5K/acre estimate is probably fairly close. My cousin started with a few hundred acres and now has several thousand, so he’s probably doing OK. (He has to maintain a family graveyard, though, in the part he bought from our side.)
interesting to hear these numbers; so even though farmland is ridiculously cheap in NL compared to the same land zoned for building, it is still expensive compared to other countries.
This explains why many Dutch farmers (mostly the ones with large farms) have relocated to other countries like Canada, Poland, Russia etc. over the last 5-10 years. Land is far cheaper there (plus less regulation regarding environment etc.) so they must be making lots of money by relocating. Another type of equity locusts …
nhz, thanks for your lengthy response to my question about Spain yesterday. Just o let you know, land prices went up 47% in 2007 in the Argentine Pampas. It is totally ridiculous, but I think some investors still think it’s cheap…
cassiopeia: I’m sure Argentine pampas are still cheap for buyers from Europe or US. My nephew in Ecuador purchased farm land there last year; after adding some wells (relatively minor expense), and because of general price increases for farmland, the value of the property has tripled in just over a year …
With the value of the dollar going down just about everything is going up in value (asides from condos in Miami and similar mal-investments of course) relative to the dollar.
Oil, gold, land, wheat, stocks, you name it. It’s going up. Those are the natural consequences of inflation. If you wilfully destroy the currency as store of value money will desperately try to find a new home. Too bad Uncle Ben from the FED doesn’t understand this concept.
I concur. And high quality growing regions — decent soil, good rainfall — are in depressed areas where development has stalled and open fields are available for not-so-high prices. (not sure how taxes fit in)
Examples: MI IL IN OH, upstate New York, and possibly… … NW PA.
You mean around Oil City? I hear it’s a neat place.
Hey, Shoe, I’m sure Oil City has a lot on Wayne’s Wonderland for scenery (guffaw).
We can’t compete with all those scenic oil derricks, that’s for sure.
(Keeps fingers crossed)
Oil City has oil derricks?
Cr@p. I thought it was all endless flying white ponies and rainbows. I’m cancelling my vacation plans.
Good times return to Oil City
Oil City used to be home to more millionaires than anywhere else in the world. But the first oil boom gradually became a trickle…
“A neighbour over there just drilled 14 new wells. He’ll probably have his money back in 35 to 40 days,” said Bill [Huber, an independent local oil man]. With oil prices rising, even small businesses are booming. “You see a lot of new trucks now. Five years ago, everyone was driving an old clunker - including us,” he added.
[The president of the local] Oil Region Alliance said that the small producers [are] playing an important role in reviving a local economy that’s lost half its workforce in recent decades.
“They have more disposable income now than they ever had, and they’re spending it with our local retailers, which is great for our economy.”
The alliance is encouraging a new generation of young people to repopulate Oil City.
So….ByeFl was really a shill for the Oil City Alliance all this time??? Shudda known.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105048/10-Fastest-Growing-Real-Estate-Markets
The housing implosion is nowhere near over. In 75 of the 100 top U.S. cities, prices are expected to fall in the next 12 months according to Fiserv Lending Solutions.
It is all good until global warming takes away the ability to farm that land. The world does seem to be changing and under stress. There will be no salmon fishing on the west coast from Mexico thru Canada this year. The salmon population is in grave danger and at record low levels. I notice the bees in my area are acting strange. Building hives and abandoning them. Unable to respond normally to any stimuli, just sitting on the nest in a docile state. There are no sure plays anymore.
Someone needs to inform the otters and seals that salmon are protected..
But global warming, if it was real, would extend the growing season in most parts of the country! And CO2 stimulates plant growth. No, I’m not being sarcastic. I was reading that a lot of crops in the midwest are very late getting planted this year because of the unusually cold spring, and yields are already being forecasted to be lower.
There is a lot of stress on our environment. Monoculture farming practices encouraged by the use of synthetic fertilizers have been depleting topsoil for quite a while. And now monoculture farming driven by ethanol-based corn demand, ostensibly to alleviate global warming, is going to make this problem much worse.
also keep in mind that most of the current ‘high tech’ crops that are so popular in the US and most of Europe have a tolerance of less than 1.5-2 degrees C in average temperature. A little more warming and they are useless. In some cases using crops from warmer countries could work, but usually they won’t because the conditions (soil, weather, ecology) are different.
Don’t forget water. The Ogalalla aquifer and reservoirs around the country are drying up.
Ag land would be worthless if it was bone dry.
But lobsters are doing great. Scientists are speculating that the vastly reduced cod population (natural predators of baby lobsters) may be the cause.
RE: lobsters are doing great.
Not in Maine. Catch is off 25% over the last 2 years, and nobody knows why.
Porltand Telegram said lobster boat builder’s are closing left and right.
It appears nobody is willing to pony up $250k when the government regulators can step in and reduce your trap count by 50%. Then there’s the price of diesel.
One guy who has been in the biz for 30 years has no orders. Says when the rig he’s workin’ on is complete he’s all done and once the current Boomer generation dies off, he has no idea what will become of the industry.
But’s thats ok.
People can play catch with “virtual” lobsters
on their computers.
All of this is the looming endgame of a civilization built upon the notion that expontential growth in resource utilization was a “good thing.” Oops, I guess not.
If Mother Nature were to get rid of About 90% of us now breathing, the population of 700 Million would be about equal to the number that lived on this good earth before the industrial revolution…
If Mother Nature got rid of all of us, Global Warming and every other environmental evil would be instantly cured.
isn’t there a problem with green crabs in parts of the US (invasive species from Europe that kills almost anything within range)?
NHZ: Green crabs are a problem in some US coastal areas, but there are many other invasive species of greater concern, including zebra mussels, nutrias, kudzu, and various imported microbial or fungal infections.
The green crab, in other words, should get in line.
‘All of this is the looming endgame of a civilization built upon the notion that expontential growth in resource utilization was a “good thing.” Oops, I guess not. ‘
What goes up must come down; what expands must contract. I believe we, the people, are a part of ‘what’.
Just to pass along Merrill Lynch’s wisdom — they are reducing the portion of that hypothetical million dollars to be invested in foreign bonds from $60000 to $40000 right now. But, they were highly wrong last June when they were already forecasting that the high-yielding foreign government bonds would already hit the skids. Some other set of pundits has a model that predicts the decline of the USD will resume after Aug 1 2008. (Can’t tell you why.) Maybe we get a lot of summer tourist biz, although with plane tix the way they are, it’s not obvious that we will this time.
AZ do you have a link on how default rates alter profits in a loan portfolio ?
tia
Most people don’t understand stocks and bonds. Financial literacy clearly is very low in this country (I spent much of my adulthood so far in grad school, and only learned it afterwards).
Real estate makes sense to people…who doesn’t understand owning a house? And the ‘flipper’ shows on TV are like reality TV for the poor, showing that it’s easier than the lottery to get rich.
Obama said “they cling to their guns, religion, and fear of those who are different”. While an exaggeration, most average Americans are clearly happiest if someone else does their thinking for them.
(Shuffles off to buy my niece a “Math is Hard!” Barbie doll…)
“…most average Americans are clearly happiest if someone else does their thinking for them.”
When Rush Limpbaugh had is show in N.Y. he used to sign off to everyone with his motto: “Listen to me..I know everything…you don’t even have to think… I’ll think for you…I’m better at it…see you all tomorrow!
I see he hasn’t changed much over all these years!
In defense of the “average American”…..
With 50-60 hour work weeks, plus doing stuff with the kids, plus the commute time, plus having to spend time figuring out what the weasel-word contracts mean on about everything you buy nowadays, plus all the other stuff that a normal functioning adult needs to get done during the week, I understand that some people don’t have adequate time to research stuff themselves, and delegate it to the “experts”.
They are paying a premium for “expert advice”. Unfortunately, like may other things in this country, they are paying a premium for crappy advice. And, if they have the time to determine that the advice they are receiving is crappy, why do they need the advice to begin with?
Lets not forget that 40 hours per week watching the devil’s paintbrush! People have more time than you think, they just don’t use it wisely.
b/s. Everyone in this country has the same amount of time available.
It’s how we choose to spend the time that counts. Many choose to spend it sitting on their lard asses watching American Idol and other trash TV and delegating their decisions to those they think know: precisely the high school dropout real estate professionals and other people who have a hidden agenda.
Others spend it doing education, gardening, working out, playing with kids, whatever they desire and don’t make excuses for everything.
If by ‘real estate’ they mean a well stocked and well armed bunker somewhere in the middle of nowhere then I think they have the right idea.
Retail diesel hit $5.09 locally this morning.
And to think…. Al Gore’s bright idea about making billions of gallons of Ethanol, that has to be shipped by truck, because it is too corrosive to be sent in the existing pipelines we have all over our country.
What planning Al.
Al bashing is about as useful as Bill bashing. Neither of them is in a position of power and can’t make the world do as they say. GWB and his ethanol policy on the other hand…..
Ethanol defended by President Bush
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-bush3-2008may03,0,4594559.story
Repubs and dems both have losers and liars, so you can share them blame.
Someone I know was trained by Al Gore’s peope to go around and show “An Inconvenient Truth” and do a presentation on the evils of global warming, err climate change. Hundreds of people are doing this all over the US and Canada. My acquaintance took a leave of absence from his job for a year to do this. Al may not be in power but his influence lingers on.
http://www.charlotte.com/409/story/617920.html
will the pool be open for memorial day ?
orbit and sun activity , dude
BTW is the bail out bill dead ?
I heard a little presentation by some legislators here and all I could do is throw my hands up and say, how in hell do we get OUT of this boondoggle? I mean, ethanol can’t be piped, takes so much energy and water…The consensus was that this is all so politically entrenched now between state and federal incentives and farm lobbies that there’s no way out. One guy said “my sound byte is ‘cellulosic biofuels in 1-12 years’.”
Ethanol isn’t a farce; CORN ethanol is the farce. (as is sugar cane ethanol, but not so much) Corn takes up the water and fertilizer, but celluosic ethanol comes from ag waste we already have, or plants that grow much more easily than corn.
The piping problem isn’t insurmountable — there just hasn’t been enough work on it yet.
“CORN ethanol is the farce.”
Agreed, but that’s all the government and corn farmers want you to hear about. By conservative estimates, the US could be energy independent in 25 years using celluosic ethanol, coal to oil, bio fuels from waste, nuclear energy, wind energy, and shale oil (which is about $30 per barrel to extract). Why aren’t the wheels spinning faster? I’ll leave the speculation to others.
Ethanol is a poor alternative to gasoline. Diesel (bio or refined) has a much larger energy density than ethanol.
Agreed, it’s mainly corn ethanol. But cellulosic is supposed to run on wood chips among other things, and here in MT we have a shortage of those, too. We have a pulp mill here that can’t get enough since logging has fallen off so much.
They can’t get the logs because of land restrictions. 300M board feet of lumber grows each year in Lincoln county MT alone!
Are those trees being consumed by the pine beetles, wildfires, or droughts out west? I sometimes lose track of which man-made disaster is screwing up which part of the world.
I sometimes lose track of which man-made disaster is screwing up which part of the world. Down with Man!
“Hell is other people.” Jean-Paul Sartre.
here in Netherlands the first second generation ethanol plant (a relatively small one, processing ag cellulose byproducts) got shot down just before construction started. At the same time at least seven huge and highly subsidized first generation ethanol plants (processing corn and maize) are under construction near the port of Rotterdam. I think the political stupidity will be with us for much longer
Two ways:
1. Don’t use corn. Make cellulosic biofuels from switchgrass and other sources of cellulose. This has the additional benefit of increasing the amount of land we can use to make biofuels since there is a lot of land that can’t be used for growing food, but can easily be used for growing switchgrass.
2. Don’t make ethanol. Instead make butanol. Butanol can be transported in regular pipelines without any problem. In addition, the energy density per gallon is higher with butanol than with ethanol. Butanol is around 92% of gas. Butanol can also be used in any car without modification in any amount unlike ethanol. Some tests have shown that cars get an additonal 2-3 MPG with butanol, and that’s before optimizing the engine for butanol.
You guys is forgetting that the first presidential primary is held deep in corn country. As long as this is true, corn subsidies/ethanol will always be a factor in our economy.
and similar rules apply in Europe, unfortunately. Farmers are a tiny percentage of the population, but they are extremely influential because of their strong ties with the big (christian/conservative) political parties. At least in Netherlands and France, don’t know details about other countries but I guess situation in other EU countries is not much different.
aNYCdj,
If you think the trucks delivering ethanol are the reason for high diesel prices think again. Now, I agree the whole ethanol idea is lame but think about all of the fuel our war machine uses daily. Remember they went to a one fuel standard. I think it’s JP-8 or something like that. Basically diesel/kerosene +/-. We have got to be going through millions of gallons over in Iraq. Day after day after f-ing day. (Wasn’t the Iraqi oil supposed to pay for the war Cheney?)
These politicians are bankrupting each and every one of us.
As a side note, I know most if not all of you are down on the housing market now. I am too. But think about this, if our money is becoming more and more worthless each and every day, doesn’t it make sense to purchase hard assets. I don’t mean an overpriced home, I mean land. Large parcels of land. This is what I plan to do with my 2004 proceeds from the housing monopoly game. There’s no rush mind you but I won’t try to catch the absolute bottom. Well I’ll try of course but I won’t be disappointed if I don’t hit it. Only by sheer luck will you hit it. Anybody who has played the stock market knows this.
I’d like to hear other strategies to combat this war on savers any of you may have.
Mike
i guess that is why i have not been able to move a load out of clover port ky for three weeks now
many truckers are parking their rigs
MG….I guess the old saying is true:
Money TALKS and Boolsheet WALKS, Ya gotta pay the piper, and offer to pay more to the trucker, and then pass on the cost to your customer….such is life ‘ole MG, people all over our great country are starting to revolt over working for FREE.
true dj
i did switch truckersw to a higher rate and he still cannot make it happen. i regularly move freight out of philly and the last 3 loads i had took almost 2 weeks to get equipment
when it usually takes 3-5 working days
it must be those 45% fuel surcharges
the rails are already up to 25% surcharge- no wonder csx stock is thru the roof
I guess Buffet was right buying Rail stocks last year.
WARNING…fuel surcharges are NOT counted in the CPI index, only the base rate….hence our low inflation rate. SNEAKY!
Well railroads ARE much more energy efficient, it makes sense they high fuel prices would give them a competetive advangage over trucks. Their problem, competetively speaking is that most customers don’t have a direct connection to a rail line so transhipment is required. Containerization helps to make mode changing more efficient, but the tare weight is much higher for containerized freight than either a normal truck trailer or a boxcar. Freight trains are at their best hauling unit trains of bulk commodities. With fuel prices rising, one would expect more demand for coal, one of the railroads best commodities.
Rochester, NY had retail regular gas finally hit $4 and $4.25 for premium.
over $4 just about everywhere in the nyc area for regular
i only fill up my 12 gallon 4 cylinder car every 3 weeks or so
could not imagine driving an suv unless i had large family which i also could not imagine having these days
recently i have been feeling the pinch of inflation or maybe it is i have been getting bomabred with extra expenses (new brakes, tax payments etc)
i am now working on saturdays for a friend and it should help me ramp up my saving efforts
My idiot cousin in Vegas recently sold his giant SUV because he discovered he was spending 1200/month on gas. That’s inconceivable to me. $40/day on gas. He also sold his giant house with 7 TV’s and downsized to a smaller place, reducing his mortgage payments from over 7K to about 2K. Did I mention that he was in construction?
Idiot sounds like he’s getting smart pretty fast
keep selling. its good for the soul.
Chicago, reg. unl. broke $4.00. $4.05 - $4.25.
The thing is, the spread between local prices and the price of gas seems a bit thin - everyone in the supply chain must be biting the bullet big time hoping and praying for relief - and soon. Where’s the tipping point before stations start to shutter?
Most stations are making the same 10c (or thereabouts) a gallon they made when the price was $1.20. I think they now have better margins on the lottery tickets. Monster margins on the packaged snacks, though.
As long as Bubbles Ben Bernanke (BBB rated) continues to destroy the dollar, we could be looking at $5 a gallon gas before the year is over. That’ll have an effect!
I saw $3.99 in Syracuse too, bizarro, although I did fill up at Sam’s Club for $3.75.
CarrieAnn, I grabbed a full tank at BJs for 3.71, but the average for the area is about 3.85.
http://www.9wsyr.com/content/news/gas_prices/default.aspx
Looks like most of Syr is below $3.90 though according to this site.
$3.58 in the Middle of Nowhere.
$4.16 for diesel.
How times have changed. Now 3.58 a gallon puts a on your face!
It’a all relative.
If you are looking for the cheapest fuel, this may help find it: http://autos.msn.com/everyday/gasstations.aspx?zip=&src=Netx
Alice in Housing Land
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/alice_in_housing_land.html
“So “stabilizing” — i.e., putting an artificial floor under — housing prices may be necessary to fuel consumption by a public that in the 1980s saved almost 10 cents of every dollar it earned, and in the 1990s saved a nickel, but recently has had a negative savings rate. This will, however, injure some innocent people, such as those young couples waiting to become homeowners. And it will benefit others who have earned an injury, such as speculators and others who bet that the prices of houses would never decline.”
The inflation solution?
And how do they plan on raising salaries to be able to afford these wonderful houses with government mandated “stable at an unaffordable level” prices? Considering the runaway inflation in food, fuel, etc. and the vanishing jobs, waiting for inflation to “fix” the problem doesn’t seem like a good strategy. Not that they won’t try it, of course!
“others who have earned an injury”
That has a nice ring to it, especially if the injury is administered by Joshua tree!
Viewing HUD inventory in northeast yesterday. It has shrunk dramatically. WTF? 3 week ago there were hundreds of houses in each state. Now only a handful. Also, Countrywides REO inventory is down to 12,000+ from 15,000+. Where the hell is the inventory going?
under the rug with PB’s elephant
Probably the same place as that M3(?) inflation indicator went.
Oxide-
That’s my thought too. There is so much smoke and mirrors associated with reporting lately.
there is still a pretty good article on line about it from 2006.
Fed kills a key inflation gauge
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/FedKillsAKeyInflationGauge.aspx
The Countrywide REO site only lists those properties cleared for sale AND listed with and un-realtor. CFC is sending more and more of their inventory to the auctioneers. This never shows on their web site. The auctions are not working so well these days, since inventory is overwhelming, buyers are scarce and the word is out about the shill bidding at US Home auctions.
The net result: More homes for sale, lower prices for buyers and fewer commissions for real estate brokers.
“The net result: More homes for sale, lower prices for buyers and fewer commissions for real estate brokers.”
Excellent. Especially the last part. If you want some good laughs and the most amateurish doublespeak on the street, go to realtytimes.com and check out local forecasts by local realtards.
I looked into signing up on there as a rouge Realtor and posting doom & gloom. It would be a pretty expensive ordeal though, as it costs over $500 per year to join the site and speak about local market conditions.
Haha… There are free sites to do that.
into the nether (secretly being converted into prisons for housing-terrorists who committed massive fraud)
My inner tinfoil hat is wondering if Wall Street-level specuvestors might not be sucking up inventory in response to the Fed’s implicit commitment to backstop home prices (as evidenced by their willingness to accept mortgage-backed debt as collateral). If the Fed’s printing press is still running and they seriously resolved to prop up home prices, I don’t know what could stop them (at least in the short run).
Fair disclaimer for the conspiracy-theory police: My hypothesis is just a far-flung conjecture as an attempt to figure out how inventories could shrink against a deluge of foreclosures…
There are two in my ‘hood that don’t show up anywhere. One has been empty for a year!!
I’m still trying to pass on the Crash Proof book. The first person who posts and provides their email address for me to get their address gets the book.
kahoenurse@yahoo.com
ya ready for some junk mail? I read a report once that the number one source of junk mail is from bots finding email addresses posted verbatim on the tuberwebs. You might want to ask Ben to remove the post.
Thats why everyone has a couple of disposable hotmail or yahoo addresses. just use them a couple a times a month to keep them active…i have a 11 year old yahoo email that i send and receive maybe 5 emails a month….
this is exactly how I got the book..
long glod, short dollar..long commodity and emerging…
thats the book.
By…WT Economist
“It’s extremely difficult for a homeowner to talk to a servicer and even if they do, it’s hard to get the servicer to change the terms. You get voice-mail hell, they don’t return calls, you can’t get a live person on the phone.”
This was from a post yesterday regarding loan workouts. I was perusing my local registry of deeds and found what appears to be a workout.
I visted this home about 6 months ago. Asking 439K. I offered that the home was worth no more than 329K and they laughed at me and wouldn’t accept the offer. Supposed to be auctioned in March, but canceled. New deed to same owner last month for 326K. I’m sure they didn’t all of sudden find 100K.
Needless to say I about hurled my lunch.
So the bank just forgave 25% of the principal? I have seen the same thing, where FBs are refinanced with huge price drops, while they keep the home on the market for a ridiculous wishing price.
Bailouts not only make me want to hurl, they make me want to defenestrate!
I don’t understand the anger here. If the bank decides that a workout or short sale will lose them less money than a foreclosure, more power to them.
I don’t understand the anger here.
Read the original post…I’m angry that the bank forgives principal because the FB cries and pleads for a bailout to stay in ‘their’ home…but then the FB later turns around and tries to sell the house at yesteryear’s prices and gets ‘insulted’ at being offered the current market value of the house.
Newsflash: real estate does not always go up!
If bailouts are saving FBs from foreclosure so that they can now resist any pressure to reduce wishing prices to current market values, how can any HBBer NOT be furious???
And of course, people that bought what they could afford aren’t getting 25% off after-purchase specials.
Problem is anyone who gets their principle reduced $100,000 will go buy 10 houses during the next housing bubble with no regard for price since loans are negotiable after you take them out.
There’s got to be some fraud in here somewhere. What if the house sells for the wishing price? Does the FB pocket the profit, or does the bank get it? And where is the IRS in all this? That 100K is taxable income, as far as I’m concerned.
And of course, the only reason banks are willing to forgive principal is because they know they will be bailed out. Where are the checks and balances? Where’s OFHEO? And where is the IRS? I’d love to see Uncle Sam slap the FB with a 100K 1099-misc and demand $28K in cash.
Not sure if this will work but here’s the link.
http://www.salemdeeds.com/searchresult.asp?startyear=2003&startmonth=1&startday=1&endyear=2008&endmonth=12&endday=31&town=ROWLEY-ROW&streetnno=628&streetname=wethersfield&type=street&numperpage=20&streetnumber=628
I cut and pasted into my browser and it worked.
Roadhouse Grill bankrupt!
Marshall Art murals for everyone!!
There’s no way I’m the only person on this freakin’ blog that admires those goofy murals. If TXChick admits to wearing Crocs, we can all trust each other.
I love Marshall Art murals!!!!!
sorry if posted before (difficult to keep up as a foreign reader):
(UK) Ministers’ housing fears revealed
“We can’t know how bad it will get.”
“This government is on the side of homeowners and will ensure we provide them with the maximum support we can.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7398244.stm
for sure authorities in the UK still don’t get it; they are consistently supporting the wrong side
Oh please! It’s a tiny little island with barely any industry left.
What do they make again? Marmite? Weetabix?
They are as capable of “supporting” the housing market as they “supported” the Empire. This isn’t a tiny market we’re talking about.
well, they still control most of the worlds financial Empire (BOE, FED and BOJ) from their City
apart from that, the support policy seems exactly the same as in the US: lower rates, let the currency drop and punish savers. I guess this policy will work just as well as it did in the US…
Yeah, an economy based on financials…That’s likely to work out even better than our service economy. NOT.
BBC sitcoms - pimped by our PBS and resold here - that’s gotta be their biggest remaining export.
probably, I guess the BBC home flipping shows are less attractive export products now (although they can still sell them on the EU mainland).
I still get a kick out of “Are You Being Served?”
Hey just got an idea, they could resurrect that show as AYBS Foreclosure Papers?, and have Mrs. Slocombe as the warrant officer.
Not to mention ground zero for the mad cow, hoof & mouth, bird flu, some of that has to bite into thier food price infation.
we plead guilty to mad cow - foot and mouth, and bird flu came in from elsewhere.
Luxury Foreclosures
Growing Number of Affluent Homeowners Can No Longer Afford Their Mortgages
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051403698.html
The foreclosure signs that have been sprouting up in less-affluent communities since 2006 are beginning to appear in the well-off suburbs, attached to houses that once cost $1 million or more. Although those kinds of homes are in the minority now, real estate agents predict the numbers will swell.
oh the horror of having to downsize or god forbid rent!!!!
like a few have said here recently patience is the key
Lets hope they don’t have so much patience that the pool turns green first.
“Who would have imagined that people would use this as an excuse to heavily leverage themselves?”
Yes, who?
“patience is the key”
Well I’ve seen a few 3000 sq ft plus that are looking like they may soon be in striking price of affordability for us. But when I consider what National Grid will charge me to keep that baby warm and combine that w/steep Onondaga County taxes that will probably only be escalating further…..nah! It’s never going to happen.
The problem w/the affordability issue is that the price of the home is only one piece of the puzzle.
My coworker’s house got taken by a tornado a few weeks ago. He is rebuilding (the original builder called him the next day). Sounds like the house was (and will be again) a monstrosity. This time he is adding photo voltaic array to the roof. Paying for it out of his pocket. I told him the numbers don’t currently work out, but he said he knew, but thought it would be neat to go that route. Serious chunk of money when you pay someone to install it. I give him props because the early adopters will pave the way. I’ve tried to price 2′ x 4′ panels direct from China, but wasn’t getting much of a discount.
“affluent”
You keep using that word. I don’ think it means what you think it means. Is this what they mean by affluent?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn5EP9StlVA
(I’m in debt up to my eyeballs! Somebody help meee…)
(
The stanley johnson commerical. Classic. It belongs in an e-scrapbook with the Suzanne commercial and aptly named, “everything wrong with 2001-2007″.
Of course this just compounds the stupidity with the idea that somehow “new debt” is the solution to “old debt.” Don’t get me wrong, lowering one’s interest rate is a good thing, but the thing to do is spend LESS than you make.
So how the fawk are they “affluent” if they’re unable to continue slaving for the bank? Besides, the affluent I know pay cash. In other words, the supposed affluent were the grandiose slobs and pigs circa 2002-2006 aka the wonder years when things were great because some economic amateur from the whitehouse goon squad said so and and every 50k/year wage slave was able to look like a genius with the banks money.
Thank you MSM for more bull$hit.
In 2002-2006, the definition of ‘affluent’ was people having the biggest credit card limits.
Speaking of the MSM, I was wondering if you had seen this little ditty this morning, given where 3 of the 10 are located:
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105048/10-Fastest-Growing-Real-Estate-Markets
I wasn’t surprised about western NY. The area has been languishing for as long as I remember.
It was languishing when my mother was a young woman. And she’s 82 now.
(High pitched squeal!)
Thank you Blano. I hadn’t seen it myself but I consider Syr being on that list a real howl considering the hallowed Onondaga County went negative in both sales and price for March YOY according to NYSAR. Several surrounding counties already had a few negative months under their belt. Madison County numbers fell off a cliff!
Someone’s feeding the Yahoo reporter some (bow to nycguy) boolsheet.
Where do they get 30% appreciation over 5 years? or 44% 5 year appreciation in Scranton? Is that a commentary on employers moving in?
Quote: “I thought I’d try to take advantage of the low prices in the foreclosure market,” said Ryan Magazine, who owns a Leesburg carwash…”
Is the carwash business in the outer outer outer outer suburbs really so lucrative?
The misleading headling tells you how clueless the Post is on this — they are equating people’s ability to get $700,000 loans with “affluence.”
No no no - “affluence” is the ability to actually afford a $700k house (or hell - even a $300-$500k house). Or, even better - being able to afford such a house, but actually living in a more inexpensive (or at least less-leveraged) option.
Having a 700k mortgage (or a bunch of them, as one investor in the article did) and not being able to afford and/or cash-flow them is the opposite of affluent.
Merrill Tries to Temper the Pollyannas in Its Ranks
Merrill Lynch, the nation’s largest brokerage firm, unveiled a new system on Tuesday for rating stocks that suggests Wall Street finally may be mustering up its courage to say “sell” more often. Starting in June, Merrill will require that its analysts assign “underperform” ratings to 1 out of every 5 stocks they cover. About 12 percent fall into that category now.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Now that’s stupid. Why a set number? If they’re all good, they’re all good.
No kidding.
It’s like “grading on a curve”, another monumentally stupid idea.
Sounds to me like an implicit admission that ratings inflation is a problem. Just like every kid can’t be “above average,” every company can’t be an “outperform.”
Most people can’t accept that their kid is average. Rather than teach them to try harder next time or accept their limits, I have seen children in competitive contests where everyone gets a trophy, so that no one walks away “feeling bad”.
These same children grow up and as adults borrow way beyond their means so that they don’t “feel bad” about their mediocre income or lack of ambition, and can live the American dream of having a McMansion, Hummer and 2.2 credit cards per household.
Well, technically only a handful are truly “average” (i.e. at actually at or very close to the mean). But a great many (half in fact if the ability distribution is Gaussian), are below average. I bet even fewer parents would be willing to accept that.
And you’re right. The refusal to let children feel the sting of failure is a big problem this country has brought upon itself in the past few decades. Start with a decent helping of “It’s not your fault you got a bad grade, honey, the teacher grades too hard!” marinate for ~20 years, and presto, you get “It’s not my fault I can’t pay my mortgage, the bank charges too much interest/the realtor told me real estate always goes up/my mortgage broker “forced” me into an ARM/the government should DO something/it’s anyone’s fault but MINE that I’m in this mess.”
Blech.
But if 80% of companies are doing better than the stock in question, you SHOULD sell it and buy something else.
80% of our stocks are above average
Can I set up my own long-short with these recommendations?
I can’t lose now. Thanks Merrill.
That is funny, trading on Merrill’s rec!
Hell, we used to do that all the time. Merrill’s sell calls were always excellent buying ops, especially in tech and semiconductors. Whatever happened to Tom Kurlak. That was one guy who actually knew what he was talking about.
Fading Merrill has most often been profitable.
I remember when Merrill put a ’sell’ on Quaker Oats, the stock dropped a half point; Mr. Stuart (Quaker primary owner) then called the Quaker Pension desk and told them to sell any Merrill stock held. Merrill dropped $2 on the news. Merrill was Quakers’ and the Stuart’s primary house. oops
I have no idea, I never traded tech stocks. I’m just not smart enough to understand them. Hopefully, took his money and retired, probably opened his own firm and went belly up.
Ever notice how Merrill always seemed to issue their big downgrades (on big companies) on option expiration Fridays?
More than coincidence? lol
“We weren’t short the calls and long the puts,” he said derivatively.
Syracuse housing bucks the downturn
http://tinyurl.com/6epapo
It’s different here in Syracuse NY alright. The median income is less than 40K. We have over 22,000 (twenty two thousand homes for sale).The local writer is always pumping false info for the advertising dollars from the realtwhores.IMHO
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/
I’m curious where you got the 22,000 figure. CNY homes lists 5303 in the greater Syracuse area today (Even that number is high. For the past 2 seasons it only got over 4000 when they weren’t cleaning out the “SOLDS’ at the end of the summer) Also, a big chunk of those listings are so far away from Syracuse I don’t have any idea where they are. (closer to Utica, Cooperstown, Fingerlakes) or dupe listings.
Now I know that FSBO and foreclosures are not always on CNY homes. But I can go through whole neighborhoods w/nary a For Sale sign.
Plus that $40k median income is probably just the city proper. Many burbs are in the $70k median family income range. Caz, DeWitt, Manlius, Camillus, Onondaga and B-ville all have a decent % of the population w/over a six figure income. I was shopping school distrcits so I looked at quite a few towns and their residents’ data.
I love to bash the shills but I like to do it w/numbers even they have to accept. Don’t worry though. Inventory in the over $300k range is bloating by the day. Really cheap stuff too but I’ve come to believe those are speculators dumping their rentals and I don’t particularly care what happens to those people.
I went to the major sites of real estate companies’ websites and counting the listings. The number is probably more. I did not count and add the smaller real estate companies.
Please look up the household income stats on trulia.com for Syracuse, Dewitt as well as Manlius. I even cross referenced to the US census stats.
Fed Balance Sheet Worries Volcker
Ex-Chairman Sees Fed’s Independence Hurt by Credit Steps
By GREG IP
May 15, 2008; Page A3
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the Fed’s independence could be hurt by the wide variety of assets it has taken onto its balance sheet to combat the credit crunch.
Since the credit crisis began last August, the Fed has expanded the volume and types of loans it is willing to make to banks and securities dealers — loans that are backed by a wide variety of collateral from subprime mortgages to student loans. It has so far not directly purchased such debt. It did, however, make an unprecedented loan of $29 billion to facilitate the sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Mr. Volcker, testifying on responses to the credit crisis at the Joint Economic Committee of Congress Wednesday, said such activity “has not been the tradition of the central bank and I think that is an issue for the long run for the independence of the central bank. If it is going to be looked to as the rescuer or supporter of a particular section of the market, that is not strictly a monetary function in the way it’s been interpreted in the past.”
Anna Schwartz referred to the BSC bailout as a “rogue action.”
Does the Fed’s acceptance of subprime mortgages as collateral create an implicit commitment or perhaps even a direct effort to backstop their value?
Does asking stupid questions daily enhance your stature with this community?
I’m not interested in enhancing my stature, just learning what I can.
But for clarification, are you calling my question stupid because you believe the answer is self evident, or because you disagree with my premise?
We’re not here to do your research for you. Do your own darned economics homework.
When I label someone stupid, I usually at least give my reasons. Otherwise, it may appear I am making an ad hominen attack. Not that there is anything wrong with that…
I just want to be luuuuuuuuuuuuvvvvved. Is that so wrong?????
I called the question stupid not you. There is a small but subtle difference.
In any case, we’re not writing your research papers for you. The answer is obvious.
“The answer is obvious.”
I thought so, but thanks for the clarification.
While pussycat has plenty of time to post over and over that the answer is obvious, being that the answer is obvious, he/she does not have the time to post it.
Make sense? Didn’t think so.
Pussycat, were you wearing one of these t-shirts when you posted that comment?
“…The Tennessee native said he’s providing a public service of sorts, reminding people they have a right to offend.”
http://www.ajc.com/wireless/content/metro/cobb/stories/2008/05/13/mulligans_0514.html
No, I was channelling Brahms, “If there is anyone here I haven’t offended, I apologize.”
Having your period today?
We have a long long very long way to go guys…
someone is trying to sell the house he bought at the peak in 2005 in northern va….he has been asking 7% more than his purchase price..house has been sitting on market since november without any offer..the author of the thread posted below offers 90% and the seller thinks that it is too low to counter LOL
The thing that gets me is reading the replies on that thread suggesting that buyer should up his offer to be more in line with what seller is expecting to get out of the house..denial is still running deep..
bubble denial thread
Please feel free to chime in on the post above with your opinion
The comments are correct. Sometimes if you want to buy from an idiot, you have to speak his language. (I didn’t say it wouldn’t be expensive
There’s no link, but I’m going to venture a guess that all the replies suggesting a higher offer from the buyer come from realtors and realtresses.
in 22151 we have 10x the foreclosure rate of 90-91
it is different this time
sorry here is the post and replies I was talking about
Also, he (seller) is a realtor, but has never sold a home and does not have any listings. I think he got his license to save the 3% on selling his home.
says it all
That must be one sweet house.
Looks like the original poster in the link caught a knife. Bought at 92% of asking instead of 90%, after saying that the place was well over comps and that the seller had purchased above market as well. Falling in love with a house is a stupid, stupid thing to do. It almost makes me wonder if the whole thing wasn’t some RE shill showing how easy it is to jump in again, even if you don’t have to.
According to this (non-econometrician) journalist, the marginal return to home improvements has dropped from 90 pct of the outlay during the boom to something less during the bust. More likely explanation: The marginal return to improvements is roughly the same now as before (at something less than 100 pct of the outlay) but the downtrend in prices (versus the uptrend during the boom) makes it look like the improvements were less valuable once the home is finally sold.
This line of discussion skirts the question of why one would want to invest $1.00 to recover $0.90 or less.
Will Upgrading Your Home Help You Sell It?
Big-Ticket Renovations Lose
Value Amid Market Slump;
Investing in Curb Appeal
By M.P. MCQUEEN
May 15, 2008; Page D1
If you’re putting your home on the market anytime soon, you may want to rethink those plans to bump out the kitchen or add an extra bath.
During the housing boom, such ambitious projects would recoup as much as 90 cents on the dollar. Not today. The resale value of improvements in general is sliding, according to experts. In a departure from recent trends, homeowners are getting the best payback from relatively mundane improvements, such as sprucing up the exterior of their house or putting in new windows.
From Beantown, Wife and I have done our fair share of looking. We have determined that the difference b/w 1 full bath and 2 full bath homes is about 100k.
We partly suspect that the everyone who lives in a 1 full bath house is desperate to get out while they can, trying to get a 2 full bath place.
My landlord built a wall in the “investment” home we live in, which changed it from a 3br to a 4br. I am pretty sure that was one home improvement which will capture more than 100 pct on the dollar.
Well, if he does as Wall Street does…maybe he could install 15 more walls and make it 20 room (6′x6) ‘5 bath (3′ x3′) “home improvement remodel” with a good San Diego zip code, then take a 2nd mortgage based on a “enhanced” appraisal…then go on vacation to a “tax haven Island” while you get to boast to everyone how you get to rent this McMansion for only $2200.00 per month. That would surely increase your “stature” on this blog!
We are cleaning up, doing the obvious things that might stand out as below the level of the rest of the features of our property. We have a 4/2.5/2 that is on the large size for our neighborhood and we don’t want to lose any of the mythical first time buyers with capital, or any move up buyers (more likely). (Particularly the one or two who might not need a prior home sale contingency!)
It may cost us less in minor improvements (replace old fence, etc.) to snag them as things trend south than to drive off the few who can actually buy.
Glorypark canceled in Arlington Texas:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/051508dnmetglorypark.fef9ca94.html
You know things are getting tight when Tom Hicks, billionaire owner of the Dallas Stars and Texas Rangers cannot get financing.
This development was first proposed in 1992 when Arlington tax payers build the Ballpark in Arlington for Pres Bush. So the end result will be two stadiums surrounded by miles and miles of parking lot. For some reason the city of Arlington just finished building a road to the non-existent development. I guess they didn’t get the memo in advance.
Fab4Ever
It’s a real nowhere plan
Building roads to nowhere land
Making all his nowhere plans
For nobody
Doesn’t have much of a view
Knows not what he’s going to do
No financing, no Glorypark, see?
Nowhere man, please listen
A lot of your wealth is missing
Nowhere man, the world used to be at your command
He’s as blind as he can be
Just built roads to nowhere scenes
Nowhere man canned, no Glorypark at all
Nowhere Man, don’t worry
Take your time, don’t hurry
Leave it all ’till somebody else
Lends you on land
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvLj72apGLI
Un.Freaking.Real
I saw plenty of attempted land speculation in Arlington because of that.
That is a load of BS that Tom Hicks can’t get financing. Tom Hicks could write a check and finance it himself.
Made my day! THanks!
ON STYLE
By CHRISTINA BINKLEY
Early Markdowns Mean Springtime for Shoppers
May 15, 2008
As fashion retailers vie for scarce business this spring, one clear winner is emerging: you, the consumer.
I find that 1970’s Salvation Army sales and burlap rice bags are the ultimate statement of wealth and privilege in the “New Economy”.
Wow, let’s all run out and buy the wave-striped Prada bags.
C’mon, c’mon, NYCityboy, I mean you, in particular.
Some San Diego politicians use a different alliteration to describe this idea: “Toilet to tap”
Sewer to Spigot: Recycled Water
A growing number of cities and counties grappling with water shortages are turning to a solution that may be tough for some homeowners to stomach: purifying wastewater so that residents can drink it.
“Some San Diego politicians use a different alliteration to describe this idea: “Toilet to tap”
When I went to college in West Virginia a bar dried that approach, send recycled beer from the urinals to the taps. 10 cent draught night.
At least that’s where I think the beer came from, sure tasted like it.
That is how it works all over the contry.
People in Colorado suck waterout of a river, run it through their toilets, then treat it and put it back into the river. Then people in Utah suck the water out of the same river, runit through their toilets, threat it, and put it back in the river. Then the people in AZ…. Then CA….
Each city down stream is drinking the toilet water of the cities up stream.
The difference in placeslike L.A. and San Diego, there are no cities down stream that they need to put the water pback into the river for… Therefore, they get to drink their own pee water instead of being required by law to send it down stream to the next city to drink.
If you live in the west, required reading…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadillac_Desert
That is one of the best reads of the century, IMO. My dad worked for the Bureau of Reclamation and found that book to be very factual, at least regarding that esteemed entity (Bureau of Wreck-the-Nation, as Ed Abbey called it).
Minor correction: There is no town in Utah that takes its drinking water from the Colorado. Moab is the only town in Utah on the Colorado, and its drinking water comes from springs. BTW, the biggest polluter of the Colorado isn’t municipalities, but rather agriculture. Selenium is a HUGE problem, introduced into the river from irrigating.
The Green River flows into the Colorado and the town of Vernal, Utah, may introduce some pollutants, but if so, very minor. That’s the only town of any size along that river in Utah, and it’s small.
There is a bit of hysteria in the reaction to this water recycling idea which probably reflects scientific ignorance more than rational concern. If the system is designed properly, I have a hard time understanding how there could be a risk of accidentally allowing raw sewage to spill over into the drinking water system.
San Diego is a beachfront town with a neighbor to the immediate south (Tijuana) which has a limited amount of modern plumbing. Every winter during the rainy season, we witness a “brown tide” which muddies the otherwise-transparent Pacific Ocean waters whose waves propel surfers. To each his own, but I would personally rather drink toilet-to-tap water than surf on a brown tide of raw sewage.
Do not drink the caca aqua, Tijuana-adjacent…
When you get right down to it…..all pee-water is eventually recycled somehow/somewhere.
Seen written in a bathroom stall:
“I don’t drink water, because the fish f##k in it….”
Most of the water we drink & most of the water we’re made of has come out of the rear of animals over and over and over again. We just like to think that what we drink & consist of is so much better, purer stuff, than that.
“Most of the water we drink & most of the water we’re made of has come out of the rear of animals over and over and over again. We just like to think that what we drink & consist of is so much better, purer stuff, than that.”
Bullseye. There is no net loss of water so there is plenty of it. Clean water is a scarcity issue but a conveyance problem. It costs money to get it from here to there.
The solution to pollution is dilution.
The Fed thought that too, thinking that the solution to the pollution of many a MBS was dillution of the dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeNj3Q1VgNKQ&refer=home
May 15 (Bloomberg) — Industrial production in the U.S. fell more than twice as much as forecast in April, as the slowdown in consumer spending prompted car and appliance makers to cut back.
So much for increased exports saving us.
The consensus forecast is once again overly optimistic. Whatever happened to economists who live up to their “dismal scientist” reputation?
The current economy entered the recession in March of this year, GDP is down about 1% over the last three months and getting worse.
A minor interest to me is CDOs are defaulting at twice the speed of CMBS. This means lenders are renegotiating loans with borrowers in larger quantities, ‘Eff the CDOs’. More pain coming.
hmm.. Survey 76 economists and their forecast is inaccurate. That is odd… not.
But given that we’re talking fractions of a percent, maybe there’s still time for a weak dollar to spur exports. Factories can retool and scrape together a workforce pretty quickly if there’s money in it.
US still has the most competitive economy and a 0.2% inflation rate
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/15/news/economy/world_competitiveness.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008051506
That goes to show that you can run an economy by selling houses to each other and securitizing bad debt. Economies that actually manufature real goods are just not competitve. So don’t worry, keep the party going!
Interesting is also that inflation stayed so low because fuel cost DROPPED (!!!) 2.0% from March to April. What’s particularly amazing about this drop is that according to the EIA fuel costs went up from 3.35 to 3.65. I’ve never seen a drop in prices where you pay more after it dropped. Some interesting math they’re employing there.
see: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epmr_pte_cpgal_w.htm
Is it possible to sue the government for fraud over this? Obviously they’re massively cooking the books.
It went up less than it normally does. Last fall when gas wasgoing up 5% a month, it showed in the inflation rate as 7% since gas was “supposed” to be falling that time of year.
Couple days ago, the CA thread had a story about 1000 foreclosures per day…. My comment:
“I count 137 foreclosures average per day for April, just for Maricopa county AZ.
3.8 million people in the county.
36 foreclosures per million people per day.
1000 per day for CA?
34 million in CA….
only 29 per million…. Slackers.
For May we are running 179 per day.
As recenlty as December it was only 84 per day.”
Well, I’ve been watching the number this week. Breaking 180-190 per day. Yesterday 215.
Last couple days we got pounded with stories about how transactions were up for April, YoY. Something like 5200 transactions for PHX. Great…. but we had 3000 foreclosures last month and are on pace to blow past 4000 this month.
Not defaults, which are pegged at 6000 a month (seems to be the max ability to process since we have been pegged at that rate for over 3 months). I’m talking properties actually sold off on the court house steps.
The 4000 Trustee Sales is only for Maricopa County, not “greater PHX” which stretches out to some of the most bubbly areas in Pinal county.
We are getting VERY close to the point where foreclosures is higher than transactions. We are already seeing more actual foreclosures than the transaction rates we had over the winter.
I was wondering what happened to all the other notice of trustee sales that aren’t going to foreclsoure. I found 80 cancellation of trustee sales for yeaterday. Decided to doa random sample of 10.
For 6, I could find no additional documentation so they probably did a work out or just caught up.
For 2 there were sales. Don’t know if short-sale.
The other 2 were walk-aways. Assignment deeds without release….. BOTH people that walked, had multiple properties thery were walking from. One had 3 and the other 4.
According to my limited understanding of such matters, a firm raising more capital has a similar dilutive effect on the value of existing corporate shares as does a central bank’s monetary expansion on the value of existing currency. Is this roughly correct?
Perhaps this is not a serious problem, so long as the nominal value of existing shares is backstopped.
Bernanke urged financial firms to raise more capital
By Greg Robb
Last update: 9:24 a.m. EDT May 15, 2008
Alice in Housing Land
George Will
“…The other category consists of everybody. Seventy percent of economic activity is personal consumption, which recently has been fueled by the “wealth effect” — people spending because they feel wealthier due to the appreciation of their largest asset, their house. So “stabilizing” — i.e., putting an artificial floor under — housing prices may be necessary to fuel consumption by a public that in the 1980s saved almost 10 cents of every dollar it earned, and in the 1990s saved a nickel, but recently has had a negative savings rate. This will, however, injure some innocent people, such as those young couples waiting to become homeowners. And it will benefit others who have earned an injury, such as speculators and others who bet that the prices of houses would never decline…”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051403091.html
There is no housing crisis, house prices are right were they should be and much ado about nothing. The government should help to keep consumption higher. Friggin mope.
He mentions the negative savings rate…. But also says the extra consumer spending was just from “wealth effect” that people “felt richer” due to house price.
NO YOU MORON!!!!
The wealth effect wasn’t about feeling richer. It was about access to lots of cheap debt in the form of the house ATM withdrawl.
If we JUST stop house prices from falling, it won’t turn back on the house ATM, allowing people to continue spending more than they make.
Simple truth is:
People bought houses thay can’t afford.
People tapped the equity to a level they can’t afford.
People bought houses as investments that are only “good investments” if prices are rising.
Stopping prices from falling further does not help any of these people.
What it does do is allow construction to continue, further adding supply to an already oversupplied market.
WOW!!!!
Bernanke Speach talking about throwing more regulation on banks, hedge funds, derivitives…. Seve Liesman and some dude from SocGen babble about unwind, liquidity crisis, regulation… blah blah. Shock that trust hasn’t returned, short-term liquidity still locked (people with money don’t want to lend it to people with long-term debt. Only way to borrow money is Fed and long-term debt from people borrowing from the Fed.) Still in crisis of confidence.
Mark Haines: “American banks are the best in the world at creating crisis. I don’t care how close we watch them, at least once a decade they manage to create a major financial crisis. Mexican banking crisis, Long-term Capital Management, on and on and on…. We are the absolue best in the world at ensuring we get our crisies atleast once a decade.”
Such honesty.
Is there any wonder that there is still a crisis of confidence? The Fed loaning money short-term does not mean the people holding long-term debt are going to get paid back so they can pay back their debts…
As was stated a few days ago, it’s not a liquidity crisis, it’s an insolvency crisis.
Ain’t nobody gonna loan banks long-term at 2.87% (one-year LIBOR.)
Smart money is not suicidal.
So long as the stock market always goes up, where is the problem?
Alice in Housing Land
By George F. Will
Thursday, May 15, 2008; Page A15
Alice in Housing Land
My point exactly.. unaffordable housing is a crisis. We are currently resolving the crisis. It’s susch a simple concept but the media don’t seem to get it at all.
http://www.590klbj.com/News/Story.aspx?ID=91268
Good pic of some of the house pulverizing hail we got in last night’s extreme thunderstorm. Baseball sized hail … geez …
Man, you need to be wearing a helmet for that stuff!
They are doing redevelopment (raze subdivide and rebuild high-tony) through a small house neighborhood on the road into my development. Saw a house with a tree leaning into it last week. It fell on the small older wood house rather than the new faux-stone house. Some people can’t get a break. (Zero lot line = dangerous in tornado country)
Squatter’s update:
Yest, someone knocked on the door - water guy with disconnect notice. LL stopped paying 3 months ago. Gotta have water, so I went down and paid one month ($40). They disconnect only when you get 3 months behind. Will pay month by month. They let me pay, they know what’s going on (small town). Electric’s in my name, so no problem there. Heat’s propane, tank is part full and it’s now too warm for it anyway. So the utilities are covered.
I’m watering the lawn and the flowers are quite nice. You’d never guess the house was inhabited by a total slacker. So far it’s an interesting social experiment…whoops, gotta go, sheriff’s car in front…
The authoritative knock on the door, followed by:
“You have to leave, and anything you leave will be left behind”
LOL!
No kids, so no child left behind.
No pets left behind. Think about the pets!
Yeah, those dang pets!
That’s how I got in this situation in the first place. I have a very nice camper that I was going to live in with my dogs, but I have since inherited a bunch of cats, which don’t do so well in campers in the Outback. I’m going to make lemonade out of lemons though, I’m currently training them to attack deputies.
Hey Utah, come homesteadin’ in o’side. I have a tiny guestbed room. I’m gonna need an extra income now that pension funds are snappin’ up all the crude oil, crackers ricecakes. Things look dismal, and based on my checking account in sept 07 and may 08, i’d NEVER qualify to rent this house in the ocean hills. Those damn t-bills.
Cat = lemons = lemonade
Have room for a couple more?
No, Gulfstream, I’m not making lemonade out of the cats themselves…but thanks anyway!
ya know.. you just might end up with a story worth publishing. Keep a diary.. And a couple choice photos won’t hurt. For the cover shot, ask the sheriff at the door to smile as you take his picture.
Last night I dreamt I had all my stuff in two storage lockers in the bay area, but I live in San Diego.
Utah, you are a squatter pioneer!
“…they know what’s going on (small town)”
Does this town have internet access? Is the Sheriff’s mistress a real estate agent? …they may be on to you Lost…
(Guffaw) = hey, this town is SO small there’s not ONE RE agent. That’s why I moved here!!!
And the average citizen is so techno-phobic you have to be careful when you talk about the internet, I even had one guy tell me he thinks electricity is of the Devil, no lie!
Luddite, Utah
O.K., if that’s the case, get a battery operated cd player and play Jimmy Buffett’s “12 volt man” as loud as you can while walking around town!
Start a business House Sitting foreclosures, just use a PO Box when you apply in case that bank actually owns your house
It’s been done. Ben posted it here a few months ago, some business that gets renters into foreclosures for the banks.
Yeah, but your business would have renters skilled in speaking Utahn
You mean, like, Holy Moroni??
Utar….cmon
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121085334980095123.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Senate Nears Mortgage Deal
By DAMIAN PALETTA
May 15, 2008 9:28 a.m.
WASHINGTON – Senate lawmakers are close to a deal that would expand a government program to insure hundreds of billions of dollars in refinanced mortgages, top lawmakers said Thursday.
“We’re very close,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) said on Fox Business. “We’re very, very close.”
Once this Congressional housing bailout Kabuki dance ends, and it becomes apparent that it barely makes a dent in the foreclosure crisis, perhaps sellers will get a bit more realistic about their asking prices. My guess is that denial is still running strong among sellers who believe the Fed or the Congress can magically make the housing market price dynamics return to pre-2005 inflation rates. Never mind that tsunami tide of foreclosures which is drowning the market.
Never mind that tsunami tide of foreclosures which is drowning the market.
PB, I know I’m preaching to the choir…but the whole point of the bailout is to keep foreclosures from coming to market in the first place! If they subsidize housing enough, then it might actually be cheaper for them to stay put rather than move out and rent.
Of course, nowhere in this legislation will there be an obligation for the bailed out FBs to drop wishing prices for people who want to buy an affordable home. Angry renters like me will have given our tax dollars to keep housing unaffordable for ourselves.
Talk about un-American: I can’t even claim my rent as a tax deduction…while the FBs get their house, their bailout AND their deduction!
The foreclosures are coming to the market with or without this imaginary bailout that is like an eternally receding shape-shifting mirage.
Where are the fooking jobs, I ask you that will pay for these imaginary home prices?
That is exactly the point: take the money from the prudent and ethical and force them to spend it on propping up housing prices so they can’t afford to buy. The crooks get rewards, we get screwed.
Look on the bright side — you don’t get to enjoy falling knife home equity losses…
–
Professional family looking for a longterm rental in town……
“Hi, We made the decision several months ago to relocate to Tehachapi from the Antelope Valley… We are two professionals with a teenage, honor roll, middle school daughter. We hope to be moved by the fall to get ready for her to attend THS in 2009. We are not interested in buying… If you have a home and are caught in this crisis and would like reliable, clean tenants for 4 years (spring of 2013) please let us know what you have and we’ll go from there. Thanks…”
http://www.tehachapinews.com/home/Blog/artisticsouls/26680
Jas
I would like a four bedroom rental for $1,100/mo too!
–
In another 6-12 months you should be able to get a fairly new home. It is all a matter of overbuilding and excess supply of empty homes.
Jas
Whats wrong with the Antelope Valley and HIV high? thats one place that really went to s$%t after the last housing bust of 1990.
HUD took over.
Question for financial wiz kids:
My sister told me I can get an account at JPmorgan with her guy.
it looks expensive and no guarentees. since i suck at investing, is it a good idea? any advice is good advice. Thanks in advance.
No. Bad idea.
Damn chick, what SHOULD I do?
Use cheap Vanguard index funds and a simplified timing method. You can use bear funds too. These “asset managers” charge a fortune and sell you whatever the firm’s flavor of the month is (i.e. whoever is giving them investment banking work). I had a friend in Silly Valley who had over $1M with Merrill which was 25% in Intel stock (this was in 1998). One day, Kurlak came out with some big downgrade on the stock which tanked it good. In those days, you didn’t get strung up for getting your clients out ahead of something like that (chinese wall between trading and research). Her Merrill broker didn’t think she was important enough to tell ahead of time so she took the hit. I can only imagine what it takes these days to get the attention of anyone other than some 25 year old gofer.
There is a great Vanguard mix that allows you to place only 50% of the investment in the US and the balance overseas and in high interest accounts. The only modification that I have made to it was to take 5% from the Vanguard 500 index and put it into T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (TRAMX) - this is one of three frontier market funds available world wide.
Short term historical (5 yrs) returns -22%/yr; no reason to expect any difference in the future. And like all great funds - fully hedgeable!
Simplified timing: Buy when they are about to go up, sell before they go down. Buy when it snows, sell when it goes.
No. Use seasonality. Sell in the spring, buy in the fall.
The snow hasn’t finished melting yet,lol. I forgot in Texas it melts in Feb not May. It is still melting in the shady spots. At least the ice is gone.
Simplified timing: Buy when they are about to go up, sell before they go down. Buy when it snows, sell when it goes.
—-
I worked with filter savant guys in aerospace and one of them was looking at the stock market historical returns (havign to do with our anemic 401K choices at the time) and that is about what he came up with. I don;t think it was sexy enough for him to actually try it though
‘There is a great Vanguard mix that allows you to place only 50% of the investment in the US and the balance overseas and in high interest accounts.”
And the mix is…… ?
Anyway heres one of mine VASGX there are 4 of these from safty to growth fund of funds low expenses.
Anyone buying equity funds now? I’m still sitting in cash. It seems like the mkt always does a dump in Mar-Apr, then goes up until June-July and dumps again. I was waiting until that. One thing Vanguard won’t let me do is buy on daily dips. It takes 2-3 days sometimes. My old Strong acct would let me move money at the same dayh’s prices even if I told them 2 min before closing time.
What is this world coming to? Even the shills at marketwatch.com have noticed the stock market is behaving strangely in the face of a steady drumbeat of worse-than-expected economic news.
May 15, 2008 10:55 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Economy data jar investors
Stocks go against numbers
The maim stream media are just glorified number runners for Wall Street, nothing more.
Know-nothings that are on top of their game…
Missing detail from this story: Who made easy money loans to the investment banks and hedge funds to fuel a carry trade into commodities?
DAVID WEIDNER’S WRITING ON THE WALL
Wall Street’s crude ways
Commentary: How traders and hedge funds fuel runaway energy costs
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT May 15, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Two years ago, our president, a former Texas oil man, proclaimed that “America is addicted to oil.”
These days, the problem is that even though the appetite of the addict hasn’t changed, the price of a fix has doubled.
A boom in speculation and trading by investment banks and hedge funds has put our energy markets on steroids.
How many times can it be said. These f***ing hedge funds are a cancer and so are their investors.
Actually, it’s the negative real interest rates that are a cancer.
Until that changes, you can bet that people will just continue to suffer.
Just looking at a monthly chart of oil, main support is at 100. Looks like the funds are finally pulling the plug.
The margins are being raised for speculators, possibly to 100% margin. Traders and hedgers are still OK. But margin increase kills the market.
it sure greased the slide in the dotbomb market in 2000
cant say I’ve ever heard a stronger bear case for shorting, oil. If oils supposed to be so cheap, why do I still hear idiot punks turning laps at the local brickyard on the weekend, that thing lights the town up with noise, light, and carbon emmisions. When that stops, oils just right.
Im long till Im wrong. Glod sign still up at the used car lot.
–
“A boom in speculation and trading by investment banks and hedge funds has put our energy markets on steroids.”
What part of Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) don’t people get? IMO, the economy has been criminalized. One can watch Maxed Out: Hard Times, Easy Credit and the Era of Predatory Lending for evidence of deliberate attempts by banks to bankrupt people.
Jas
That Maxed Out movie is just OK.
One just wishes that that guy had hired a researcher or something. He is so into his liberal-@ss sh*t that he stops from asking the right hardheaded questions every single time.
He should’ve hired someone, actually anyone, from this blog.
–
Isn’t Elizabeth Warren (the Prof quoted many times) a researcher? I hope that I got the name right. She had another video that was very good with lot of data.
I have only watched 1/3rd so far.
Jas
she’s a law professor and bankruptcy expert
http://www.creditslips.org
Elizabeth Warren is a true mensch.
However, I meant more in terms of why some of those people went into debt in the first place. Not all of it was medical bills and bad luck. Surely large parts of it was overspending.
A documentary filmmaker should not be afraid to ask tough questions.
I agree with the general principle stated. I just wish it had been a better, more hard-hitting movie.
–
“why some of those people went into debt in the first place.”
That is how people really are. People engage in self-destructive behavior, or don’t think of future consequences, often enough, no?
Successful cultures were able to train people to counter certain temptations and behaviors. We were one of those cultures, but seem to have lost it. Our propaganda is directed at making people irresponsible and to profit from this. Ethics are very important part of a prosperous society. Puritanical ethic was a big part of American success.
Jas
Please, you need to read Edward Bernays.
He even wrote down his methods in two books: Propaganda, and Public Relations.
It has always been thus. Only fantasists believe that things were different “back then”.
Find Frontline - The secret history of Credit Cards. It might be on google video, it’s definitely on bittorrent type networks.
Also there is a book called Credit Card Nation that is pretty good as I recall. I was happy to see Maxed out, but like others I think it left out a good number of issues.
I read Credit Card Nation before I saw the movie, so I was looking for things that was mentioned in that book in the documentary, and it wasn’t mentioned.
I think the old lady with the insane plate collection is one of the issues.
funny thing, when the bust started last august…I sold everything, closed down all credit cards, simply closed em….have not used credit in any way (paid off a card I had since college, but always wanted to get paid, and the lump sum payment of the student loans….paid it ALL off, and bought a used car for cash)….now Im gonna open ALL THE CREDIT I CAN GET….huge home equity line, non secured debt will also be opened….inflation…its coming.
I played into the delfation, now its inflation…..market rally continues.
I just saw an add for a price-reduced 4/3 where the sellers will pledge to vote for the buyers presidential candidate of choice as an incentive… am i missing something here? Has anybody ever seen this before? “Sellers will vote any way the buyer wants, (2) presidential.”
definately illegal.. i remember somebody.. (algore’s gang?) handing out free cigarettes to homeless people to get them in a bus to go register.. buying votes is a no-no.
that was an easy search.. google for: election homeless cigarettes illegal
2000 election cycle.
so many hits.. there may have been several incidents.. i randomly picked a short url.
http://www.ketv.com/news/157460/detail.html
Hey, someone better tell all the lobbyists in DC that!
Now there’s a chintzy incentive - you can buy votes for $10/per in Miami.
I notified the listing agency and they yanked the add… then went on to say, “Are you in the market? I can help if there’s a particular listing that you’re interested in.” Heeeheeee… made me giggle a little.
Industrial output plunges in April, reflecting big cutbacks in autos and other manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080515/economy.html
Manufacturing output fell by 0.8 percent with half of that weakness coming from large cutbacks in auto production which has been beset by falling demand for new cars and also problems related to a strike at a parts supplier for General Motors.
are they having trouble crunching the numbers to show an upside on this report like they do with the CPI figures? i just dont get it. there has to be something they can take out to show some positive news!!!!
I seem to recall that they stripped out “volatile auto sales”. Of course when auto sales are booming they are factored in. The gov’ts numbers are worthless.
Time to bail on bonds
For one, it’s yet another sign that Wall Street is now worrying more about surging commodity prices and a weak dollar then a recession, weakness in housing and the credit crunch. Long-term yields tend to fall during economic slowdowns.
“One of the things driving yields higher is the fear of inflation. We have a weak dollar and you see that with gas and food prices,” said Brian Battle, vice president with Performance Trust Capital Partners, a Chicago-based investment firm.
In addition, since mortgage rates and the rates for other longer-term loans tend to move in tandem with the 10-Year, a continued rise in Treasury yields should lead to higher mortgage rates.
What’s this all mean for the markets and economy? If rates keep heading higher, the Fed may finally get the hint from the bond market that it needs to worry more about inflation and less about recession.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080515/051508_thebuzz.html
What color is your umbrella?
The bank snatched my umbrella back because it was getting all wet due to the rain.
Mr. Frederic Mishkin Federal Reserve Governor will be speaking at Wharton tonight.
Topic: “Asset Price Bubbles: How Should Central Banks Respond?”
I am most interested in the question and answer period, but the Federal Reserve is setting up plans to target bubbles in the future. Drat.
Margin requirements, no?
There was a reason behind the 20% down rule.
Hmm, definite progress.
The Greenspan lecture is:
“Asset Price Bubbles: Should Central Banks Respond?”
I think that should read: “Should Central Banks Respond when they can spot them?”
what?
there’s a bubble?
“…Bankers “have made huge mistakes”, Mr Köhler told Stern magazine in an interview to be published on Thursday. Referring to the subprime crisis, he said: “I am still waiting for a clear, audible mea culpa. The only good thing about this crisis is that it has made clear to any thinking, responsible person in the sector that international financial markets have developed into a monster that must be put back in its place….”
FT Köhler attacks markets ‘monster’
“So sleep well, my darling, the sandman can linger,
We know our buddies won’t give us the finger.
Heil–hail–the Wehrmacht, I mean the Bundeswehr,
Hail to our loyal ally!”
All quiet on the subprime front…
It is only “huge” if you lose more now than you made on the way up. Oops, sucks to be you.
Mea Culpas may have to wait until they get other jobs. They look bad on resumes.
Was it over when the Germans bombed, by investing in what they thought was a safe harbor?
Hell No!
Rents in San Francisco are insane, and it’s starting to feel like the dot com years again (I posted a room for rent in our house last month on craigslist and got almost 50 responses in the first day).
Maybe this explains it: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/15/BA2110LPHB.DTL
From SFGATE: Thousands of new technology industry and other professional jobs and a burst of new housing construction attracted more new residents to San Francisco in 2007 than in any year in nearly a decade and drove the city’s population to a new high of more than 824,000.
The 12,284 arrivals were drawn to an estimated 10,000 new jobs and the city’s enduring panache - good weather, views, arts and culture, restaurants, and access to the outdoors.
But San Francisco still has some of the highest housing prices in the world and a long-standing housing shortage, so where will all these people live?
At least some of them will occupy the 2,500 new homes added in 2007 - the most housing created in the city in at least 19 years - and in the 3,281 units the city authorized for construction last year, the tangible result of city government’s efforts to make up for minimal housing production in past decades.
I feel for ya — I had a friend stop by recently on his way from SF to Barcelona. He and a roommate pay twice as much for a smallish two bedroom in the Mission as my girlfriend and I pay for a large three bed in Chicago (in the same neighborhood he used to live in when he lived here). Rents in SF are pretty crazy unless you’ve lived in a rent-controlled place for a while.
Hoz must have put out a buy recommendation on GM today.
I blame Hoz’s friend Lars for the bond rally today…
Cmon Hozzie, blow my hair back with a spec…. Im unlocking moneys. WPT.To gonna have a nice snapback rally on the open.
everybody start shorting the shoe droppers. SKF was under the benjamin line.
——-
Housing Has Not Bottomed
Housing Market Index at 19 is in horrible territory (any number below 20) and down from a month ago.
Traffic of Prospective Buyers at 17 is close to an all-time low and also in horrible territory.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=529&print=true
Builders need to slash prices to compete with auctions and foreclosure sales. Also, they need to shut down building and permits in the high foreclosure areas for at least a year.
Jas
Home builder sentiment nears record low in May
“With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months, the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating and Congress and the administration must move immediately to enact legislation that will help reverse the trend,” NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, West Virginia, said in a statement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080515/usa_housing_homebuilders.html?.v=3
i guess the funny thing is that the government can’t make people buy homes, and the ones that have the money and the good credit are not willing to commit financial suicide. so how is having the government do anything going to help?
I guess the government’s role will have to be make committing financial suicide look like a smart move?
For a clearer picture on where building sentiment stands, you can download the HMI Index data to a spreadsheet from here:
5/15/2008 HMI Chart and Components
Since the data actually goes back to 1985 (unlike the chart), you can modify the date range to confirm that the current level of the HMI is historically unprecedented over a 23 year period.
One very fascinating difference between the early 1990s bust and the present one leaps out of the HMI data: The HMI Index (which blends the three component indexes into a single composite) only touched a level of 20 once in its previous history back to 1985, in January 1991, which was in the middle of a recession (July 1990-March 1991, according to the NBER’s dating).
This time it is different: Since dipping to 22 last August, the HMI has been stuck at a level of 20 or lower for nine months straight. That is going to leave a mark on the home construction industry, regardless of what range-bound corporate share prices for home builders suggest.
Hate your used house salesperson much?
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/rfs/680285861.html
no, she had her house painted and shows it every weekend…
I cant find the gumption to ride the bike over to say hello,,, after the divorce and all.
Not your father’s Fed
Ben Bernanke evokes new era in which Fed words and hand now guide the capital inside Wall Street coffers, writes David Weidner.
Can you REALLY? buy mortgages for $.20 on the dollar? If so, I’m getting into a new line of work!!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=acNLJ7FGT15U&refer=home
“The infamous times you call the Dark Ages were an era of intelligence on strike, when men of ability went underground and lived undiscovered, studying in secret, and died; destroying the works of their mind, when only a few of the bravest of martyrs remained to keep the human race alive. Every period ruled by mystics was an era of stagnation and want, when most men were on strike against existence, working for less than their barest survival, leaving nothing but scraps for their rulers to loot, refusing to think, to venture, to produce, when the ultimate collector of their profits and the final authority on truth or error was the whim of some gilded degenerate sanctioned as superior to reason by divine right and by grace of a club. The road of human history was a string of blank-outs over sterile stretches eroded by faith and force, with only a few brief bursts of sunlight, when the released energy of the men of the mind performed the wonders you gaped at, admired and promptly extinguished again.”
“But there will be no extinction, this time. The game of the mystics is up. You will perish in and by your own unreality. We, the men of reason, will survive.”
John Galt
Man, that guy needs to learn to write in shorter sentences.
“leaving nothing but scraps for their rulers to loot” - that’s how I intend to live from here on out. Squatting, paying no taxes, buying as little as possible, doing as little as possible, maybe even making documentaries on how to best do as little as possible, and just enjoying life in general. Anybody wanna buy a Blackberry, cheap?
Michael Bolton: You were supposed to come in on Saturday. What were you doing?
Peter Gibbons: Michael, I did nothing. I did absolutely nothing, and it was everything that I thought it could be.
Office Space, 1999
Give us zee money, Lebowski…or we cut of your johnson..
Hey man, this is a private residence…..
Enough with Ayn Rand…the fact that Greenspan is/was a devoted Randian ought to be reason enough to spare the rest of this this overwritten piffle. Of course, it’s not even marginally accurate. Ms. Rand was ignorant of the intellectual firepower of the medieval monks…for example the Celtic brothers busily transcribing and saving for posterity original Greek texts. Really repellent trash.
Rand was popular with some of my friends at one time, I think because her Fortress was located in the nearby town of Ouray, Colorado, which gave her a local cachet. I tried to read Atlas Shrugged, but it was too much work. I preferred lighter subjects like differential equations, learning Old Norse (so I could read the sagas in the original), and reading Ludwig Wittgenstein, Thomas Quine, and Martin Buber.
but the Rand evokes so much of the viceral….I read Atlas Shrugged, wouldnt call myself a disciple… interesting philosophical tale, and I ascribe some of my own decision making and outlook philosophy to it. particularly the prime mover part.
Ive got some concerns about the market, but this is only due to strong handles across a broad spectrum of holdings.
Hoz sold me two thingies,
TMM and GM
chick sold me SKF, and Im long short or double down short….. whatever the hell it is.
I’m curious whether such a statistic as “homes for sale per capita” or “per 1,000 population” would be relevant to comparing communities with vastly different populations?
In an earlier post this week, a realtor was quoted as saying a particular community was better off than another because there were fewer homes for sale. When you look at community population, you do see the smaller community would have fewer homes for sale (as you would normally expect), but when you look the number of homes for sale per 1000 population, it appears as though the town of 5500 people is worse off than the town of 66000.
Any thoughts? Or just meaningless numbers?
I am hearing this chatter about chase closing the subprime and home equity line of products…does anyone have any information on this?
Not sure if it is just a speculation or fact
alright guys time to fess up! Which one of you are wrecking havoc over at the garden web’s home buying and selling forum?
I think few of the bears from HBB have sneaked up over there..not that there is anything wrong with that !
it’s nydj
thanks
I know your formul.ating some post PB, Im callin you out.
Done (see below). Now time to help get kids to bed before the wife blows a gasket…
I was convinced to buy a house on this very blog among other good things.
after I posted the tale of my house purchase in 2006, I cant remember who asked me if I enjoyed drowning puppies. I had to invoke talk about my two legged beast (yeah, I have a two legged dog, shes turning 3 and swims in the Umpqua).
Wounded animals…thats what the mob is…. pick up a wounded animal, plant something, build something….find the joy and happiness. Even in the doom and gloom….LIFE IS GOOD…
have a salty margaritta…
doin one for Jas Jain.
“A generation ago, leaders of the AFL-CIO could think of themselves, with only a slight exageration, as full partners in the power elite that the governed AMerica. Now, they have lost their membership, or rather , they were kicked out of the club. Unions are most delegated to to rear guard battles.fighting cheap labor imports or defending the pensions of retired workers, or competing expensively with each other for membership jurisdiction.”
good to be the king? or what./ I ma smoker I a loner, I dont wanna hurt know-one. not long EPI…or Tehachapi real estate, but I know ‘em.
now, ive said too much.
strongest union potential in the US, mechanical and operational diesel/gas..
MOD-G. Emm-Ohh-Dee-Gee’s,
the MOD-G LOCAL 1G
t-shirts next week.and hats.,.
be nice, Im in my cups.
ECB concern over liquidity scheme
The European Central Bank voiced its “high concern” at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets by using its liquidity scheme to offload more risky assets than it envisaged -