Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 16, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Fannie Poised To Scrap Down Payment Plans… These dimwits just won’t stop with the bad ideas. The lobby money is doing all it can.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121089649942297163.html?mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy
Great! I’d love to get my 20% + down back (I just realized we had to pay all cash for the “upgrades” grr) to invest in other ways.
bad news for US taxpayers (and foreign pensioners etc.) for sure …
Fine, so they get rid of the requirement for higher down payments in declining markets. Buying a dwelling is still going to be a bad move for at least a decade. Plus, many of the those declining markets already have precarious local gov’t funding problems. So those buying now can only look forward to helping pay for the six-digit pensions of civil servants and sending untold numbers of their neighbors’ kids through school. Meanwhile, unshackled from debt many others can move on from the all consuming pursuit of “ownership” to other, brighter, opportunities.
John, that’s well-reasoned, but the target audience isn’t you. They are wooing the boxes of stupid, without requring the bag of money. If Yun and Bernanke etc. SAY that market is good, then Fannie will help the boxes of stupid will THINK everything is fine, get off the sidelines, and buy buy buy, thereby reviving the credit market.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophesy, see? Just like “The Secret.”
From credit markets to jobs, American is “eating its own crap.” If there’s no food coming in from outside, there’s less and less each time until eventually you run out. After 25 years of it, we’ve just about reached that point. (I’m sorry for the gross imagery, but I really can’t think of a better analogy.)
The rating agencies and their crooked friends on Wall St gave their garbage AAA paper value on pure junk as per value and sold it to the suckers for huge PROFITS.
RE agents, owners, banks and assessors were allowed to assign AAA value and prices to essentually 4 walls and a roof and sell it to RE suckers for huge PROFITS.
At least some of the RE suckers have or at least spent some time in their housing CELL prisions
mikey,
You’ve just solved the housing crisis~
We can turn McMansions into McPrisons for profit.
Yep.
Except we might need an Exectutive Order to cover our butts as it might be against the Geneva Conventions to chain witless FBs and flippers fast sinking McMansions or McPrisons. They might be a little touchy about the financial torture end of this plan
I say we surround the perimeter of each proposed McPrison in concertina wire, and then use a bunch of leftover granite to fill in windows, and replace wood doors, with sturdy stainless steel padlocked doors.
Ah Yes… Goldman Sachs was doing this… then they shorted the market and made a crapload. I’m sure Paulson helped them out by holding out as long as he could before coming up with “HOPELESS” NOW.
Screw the quaint Geneva Conventions. Just do it!
We’ll Tyvek up all the usual suspects…
“It’s a self-fulfilling prophesy, see? Just like “The Secret.””
LOL.
I had a conversation about the Secret with my inlaws and mentioned if it really worked, I would’ve already had a 3-way with some 20 year old college students last week.
Hey, it DOES work!! Look, here’s an example, I used the Law of Intention to manifest getting a free house, and so far it’s working.
(Of course, a more logical type could say: so, you quit paying your rent, thus the house is free, but for how long and what then?)
I hate secrets, BTW.
The author of The Secret bought a $20MM place in the Montecito hills (beautiful). I need some of that visualization.
She bought right before Oprah decided to diss her and tell people that maybe visualizing your cancer being cured wasn’t the smartest course of action.
Well said
Its sounding more and more like a bail-out.
So I guess the plan is to qualify more low income households to catch falling knives, then to give them taxpayer-funded foreclosure bailouts later on to keep them in unaffordable housing forever? Despicable…
“Fannie Mae is expected to announce Friday that it is scrapping a policy requiring higher down payments on home mortgages in areas where house prices are falling.
The change comes in response to protests from vital political allies of the government-sponsored provider of funding for mortgages, including the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders and organizations that promote affordable housing for low-income people.”
I think that the plan is to stop the foreclosures. House sales will not come back and neither will the builders, MBS, CDO’s, and that Salih Neftci on FORA.tv who thinks that this is all a misunderstanding. What the Fed and The FED are trying to prevent is a wholesale credit meltdown.
Ok, I’m not an economist nor am I a very good stock investor. That said, it appears that if a foreclosure slide really gets started, it cannot be stopped. There will be a “tipping point” after which nothing can be done… just get some popcorn and watch. The Fed could stop a Bear Sterns because that was one company. If it becomes a lot of companies…
The really funny part is this: people will still live in their foreclosed houses if there is a meltdown. It will be so much chaos that it will take years to sort out. In the mean time, free rent! The houses may even be deeded to the “former owners” because they cannot be sold anyway.
This could just get too weird.
Roidy
P.S. I keep hearing that the US population growth will take up the excess house supply. Never mind affordability, location, etc. Is viewpoint valid?
Good point on population growth… I don’t know the dynamics but I’d be keeping one eye on immigration policy. What if the gov’t decides to open the flood gates a little to countries that have complained about US immigration policies. We could quickly soak up demand if this happened.
Immigration growth w/job contraction? I’m not sure how that works.
But who will they invite? 3rd world peasants or “rich foreigners”? Who will accept the invitation?
Yeah… it might be hard to get takers, but as usual it’s not about whether the govt’s ideas work, it’s about the long-term unintended consequences.
But who will they invite? 3rd world peasants or “rich foreigners”? Who will accept the invitation?
I’ve always thought that anyone that gets an advanced degree from an accredited US university should be able to apply and receive (with a quick background check) permanent residency in the US. We should be doing everything we can to hoard the smartest people in the world.
Brian, some of those people are there because they come from the elite class in their country. I used to teach such students at the U. of Colo. - it was an intensive year of economics, business, and language skills, preparing them for grad school. A huge majority were there because they had rich parents. Some were smart, some not.
I have had the exact same thoughts as Brian. Why ship jobs oversees when we have lots of smart or wealthy people going to our graduate schools? For folks with higher learning, we should give them preferential treatment over the low-skilled illegals. So many times have I seen talented and affluent individuals with Masters/PhD from American Universities, get tossed out because there are no visas once they lose their job or finish school. I don’t fear competing against smart folks here on our soil, since we all have to pay taxes, living costs, etc. I do fear competing against these well educated folks when they return to cheaper cost basis countries and taking our ideas with them. We have a history of importing talent like the Einsteins of the world, which ultimately lead to our economic success. I always felt our immigration policies were backwards… why do we encourage the poor and uneducated to stay here illegally and drain our services while we boot out the smart? So I support more H1Bs and visas to the technical and professional folks, especially those educated in our system. If we must globalize, let’s collect the best minds here!
If we must globalize, let’s collect the best minds here!
It is interesting that the Department of Homeland Security (why are they allowed to change Visas anyway??)extended to 29 months the Optional Practical Training (OPT) visa so that foreign graduates can stay in the US while looking for a job. You would figure that companies would snap up these “best minds” extremely quickly and they wouldn’t need 2.5 years to find a job.
RE: The really funny part is this: people will still live in their foreclosed houses if there is a meltdown. It will be so much chaos that it will take years to sort out.
I must admit I am very surprised that there hasn’t been more violence against the mortgage vultures and their related serving agents aka, repossession teams, foreclosure appraisers, process servers, et. el.
Damned if I’d want to show up with eviction paper’s at some dude’s door who has lost his job, his savings, and had his wife file for divorce to run off with a best -ex friend.
At some point the shootin’ is gonna start.
We are STRESS-NATION!
Best ex-friend
Better than the ex-REALTOR
I agree with CarrieAnn above - adding immigrants in a declining job market is on a par with corn-based ethanol as a solution. I think the PTB know the amount of pain that has to be endured and that they’re just trying to spread it out over a much longer period of time than anything close to a market without government interference would dictate.
I doubt it. If you talk to any illegal aliens they have no intention of staying in the US. They all plan to “go home” in five years, or ten years, as long as it takes to send enough money out of the country to their parents or wife to buy a house or farm in Brazil. They hate the US and have no intention of remaining here. They are total parasites, unlike the immigrants who came before, who wanted to assimilate and build a new life in this country.
Yeah, that’s the “plan”, but they never go back.
it appears that if a foreclosure slide really gets started
IF? Aren’t we shattering forclosure records left and right? The slide has started my friend.
the govt policy, it would appear, is to make everybody a FB
The reality to this story with the downpayment is they can do it..now that they came to an agreement regarding the appraisals not being handled by mortgage brokers and only directly with the banks. This is causing banks to get a better hold on the true value of the property and not what the broker wants it to be..
I have a friend who says many loans are not closing due to the bank coming back with a lower value than the sale price(they are now double appraising)..the solution, put more money down or lower the price…
Not sure if this appraisal oversight is really that prolific.
For example, I did a refinance to fixed rate last month here in the Detroit Michigan suburbs and the appraisal that went through was complete garbage. Our house should’ve been underwater and instead we were $120k over the mortgage amount on the appraisal. But I have several homes for sale on my street that are similar to mine and would make us underwater if we listed today, but the appraiser used comps that were 1/2 mile or mile away and very different from our home.
So, I’m not sure appraisals are really getting the oversight they deserve. Still a lot of fishy stuff going on in this space.
RE: So, I’m not sure appraisals are really getting the oversight they deserve
Given pre-bubble appraisal guidelines and standards for any of the GSE’s, FHA/HUD, VA et., el, there is no way in hell
for anything to underwite today.
A declining market box check was immediate death to any deal because nobody would purchase the note.
Save for some idiosyncratic pockets everybody’s market is in a free-fall now.
Any quality appraisal report prepared today would contain
much of the information which appears in this blog.
And what investor would buy anything after reading the postings here!
As noted previously-the corrupt and number punching appraiser’s are thriving better than ever. It’s the only
way anybody connected to financing RE is doing anything. The “fix” remains “in”.
This highlights the costs of government having too much power.
Government is in the business of distributing favors and allocating power. Everyone from low level contract managers to politicians are involved in the game.
Instead of people coming to agreements amongst themselves to obtain maximum benefits for both, you have government brokering these deals, and warping them with injections of huge amounts of “free” money (it’ll be free right up till the time the debt grows so huge that the ability to pay comes into question and the US suffers a currency crisis. I don’t think the debt will stop growing until we reach that point. I mean, why should it?)
Now, I’m not someone who believes the markets always work or deny the need for government regulation or domestic and border security. But there is a line in there somewhere and things like this make me think we’re on the wrong side of it.
Governments having too much power is the beginning phase of the “Terminal Rot of Rome” and this becomes more and more apparent every day in almost every way.
It’s truly frightening and it’s what many of our parents and grandparents fought wars in foreign lands over and now it is here and in many if not most countries.
The other part of the degradation scenario is the absolute and rapidly declining quality of leadership in the politico department and the bureaucracy.
Perhaps that is why one should really own some physical precious metals and have some cash in the Bank of the Mattress and even some funds tucked away in a Swiss Bank or something.
Milwaukee County, Wisconsin is in trouble with local gov’t favors and contracts again.
A couple of years ago it was Milwaukee County Supervisors on down to Nursing assistants and attendants making small fortunes with overtime, and retirement serverance packages.
Lately it has been Milwaukee County bus drivers making up to $117k with overtime. Of course that might include Combat Pay as last night they had bus video of one being attacked by an angry passenger. Perhaps that last rate increase was too much for him
“The change comes in response to protests from vital political allies of the government-sponsored provider of funding for mortgages, including the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders and organizations that promote affordable housing for low-income people.”
The real question is why are these groups more intimidating than the lack of a solid banking system. The country’s investors are turning elsewhere and all Fannie and Freddie can consider are realtor and builder feelings. Since when do guys and gals w/little more than a 12 year education dictate how things work?
How about the new legislation that are just like student loans. If you get foreclosed on, they can come after you for the difference. if you don’t pay and are due a tax refund, they get it.
Not sure if this idea will go through or not.
I swear we’re headed to a time when they pay you 20% of the house’s sale price to move in–just like those cash incentives they offer with new auto purchases or the first month free offer on some rental units. (Gotta keep the game going!) And you could always put your income tax rebate check towards the first mortgage payment.
This is still an improvement because 5% down is required in declining areas.
We are closer and closer to the brink now, my friends.
Closer to the “dream” - the “dream” of socialized housing for all, where the government determines everything for us: who can buy and who cannot, what types of toxic loans are available, and so on. All of the new, bad loans will be backed by the taxpayers, who I assume will be working long hours at Wal-mart to pay for their neighbor’s McMansion.
They will do everything to reinflate this, and socializing the whole mess sounds like the next step. It’ll just prop prices up longer and inspire more false hope as the value of our money is inflated away into oblivion.
Will they succeed? Not really since the numbers don’t work, but that won’t stop them from dragging this mess out even longer and causing untold damage to everything else in the process.
what are you going to do? It’s not their fault? All well, who is John Galt?
Sounds like FNMA is trying to outgrow its problems by adding lots of new bad loans to offset the losses on existing bad loans.
The reduction in required down payments goes along with Freddie’s and Fannie’s plan to reduce foreclosures by increasing the waiting period for declaring mortgages in default from 120 days to 2 years.
“Both companies have also recently changed their policies on delinquent loans, which they previously recorded as impaired when borrowers were 120 days late. Now, some overdue loans can go two years before the companies record a loss.
Fannie Mae declined to discuss the accounting of impaired loans. A representative of Freddie Mac said marking loans as permanently impaired at 120 days does not reflect that many of them avoid foreclosure. But the biggest risk, analysts say, is that both companies are betting that the housing market will rebound by 2010.”
Looking for suggestions …
Anyway - any suggestions for people on how to approach owners of fallow land? An old nursery a few blocks away is shut down, out of business, and mortgaged to the hilt. I’d never be able to afford the land, but I wonder if I could rent it from them for a nominal fee, or just to be the person checking on it once a week (the small building on it).
I’m pretty sure they have a well, and it’s just empty; I’d like to line it with rows of vegetables. Sprinkler system is all set up, they used to be a nursery. Just plop some (organic) hay bales down and go.
What to offer, how to approach it? My handkerchief-sized lot doesn’t give me a lot of room to garden.
Ben, thanks for saving me from embarrassing myself yesterday. I was in a weird rage.
That’s a great idea. I know of one in the same situation, Cape Cod. Please post if it works. I may try it too.
Out of business and deeply in debt; a relationship to avoid for several reasons. If you cannot buy a small lot to garden, consider an arrangement with a going farm. Plowing and such available, manure and other helps, not to mention advice to the novice.
Plop down some Organic hay? You are joking, right?
Well the whole area is/was zoned Agriculture. They were probably hoping to be bought out by one of the Big Boys and turned into subdivisions. No such luck.
Organic hay, of course I’m not joking. They did above-ground planting and I have no idea what pesticide residue may remain.
You put down ORGANICALLY GROWN hay bales, get ‘em nice and wet, let them rot a bit, then layer on a few inches of dirt right on top. You have yourself a raised bed with no pesticides. You must use organically grown/pesticide free hay bales so the crap doesn’t leach into your food.
I have horses and I’m in the West, so can’t speak for anywhere else, but it’s very rare out here to have anyone spray their hay. Once in a long time if alfalfa gets buggy they’ll spray it, but grass hays are never sprayed. Most of the hay out here is organic by default.
In general, no one I knows sprays hay. It’s just grass…grows fine on it’s own. If there are bugs that eat grass like that, then let me know what they are. I’ll put them in my yard.
Thanks, Utah. I’m just going by the article I read. I really appreciate it.
Would it be safe to assume anything they’d sell as “feed hay” would be okay, then?
I try to eat organic (even though it’s hard to find organic ice cream bars and organic animal cookies) and it wouldn’t bother me to use feed hay on my garden (if I had one). If the field it came from was next to an orchard (notorious for sprays), I might pass.
One other thing, hay is usually a little more expensive than straw. Since it seems you are just using this for bedding would straw bales not work as well to save a few bucks? I suppose there may be more nutrients for the plants in hay bales…
Honest, I’ve been around hayfields for quite a bit and never heard of them being sprayed with pesticide. I have found hay compost to be one of the nastiest, full of grass (and other) seeds that will sprout for years and years. In your system, how would you till?
I wouldn’t garden a spot I needed to carry in dirt, still afraid of the death in the ground below. Sounds less practical than container gardening over concrete.
In my neck of the woods, if you asked for “organic hay” they would laugh just until they got the idea of charging you double.
I have a friend in Germany who’s well is so polluted with fertilizer that he cannot drink from it. Great for the flower pots though.
heh, better asking strangers online than my mom again. Asking her the diff between straw, hay, and alfalfa once had her laughing for 20 min straight.
Uh, mom, who raised me in the city? Geeze.
Oh, and I would hand till it; it’s only an acre. We had a tiller for our little plot of land back in Texas; used it a couple of years but not again after that.
The article I read had it like this: Hay bale, lots of newspaper. Water. Let rot. Pile on the dirt and go. “Instant” raised beds.
Dirt I’ve got/can get. Buy it at local organic farms, maybe, or don’t plant this year, just start a community composting pool. I could get compost from the county free but it’s yard waste and who knows what chemicals are sprayed on those.
Yikes - stay away from yard waste. And is newsprint toxic from the inks? I don’t know, but seems like it might not be so good. There should be lots of info on the net, you might also Google permaculture, they’re a pretty organic bunch.
soy ink in the papers. i even feed it to the worms.
there have been problems w/hay in the Pacific NW, if my memory isn’t playing tricks on me…it futzed up the compost a lot of us gardeners use.
also, firefox, several groups around the country have “squatted” on available empty lots. Try Google. I seem to remember an article in the San Francisco paper about this, negotiating with land owners, etc.
and since you’re in South Fla, check the Fairchild Tropical Garden folks for tree and other planting recommendations. If you don’t know about that place, you should–they’re amazing!
eeek - good to know.
Thanks!
We’ve got a 17×35 plot at a community garden for $30 a year. Plots seem to go for between $25-$50.
Not kidding, are there any foreclosed homes nearby where you could squat, or garden squat.
Huh.
Garden squatting is a great idea. Wouldn’t really work in my particular neighborhood, but I’m sure there are plenty of places it would work beautifully.
I called my friend yesterday and he said he was busy planting tomotoes and leafy vegtables! I offered to buy some fruit trees for his Lake hodges property.
My mom finally got the memo that things are looking bad in Pasadena.
Yeah, I’ve been promising family I’d do that for a while, but they seem resistant to the idea. Fruit bearing trees + hurricanes = they worry.
I’d love to have nut trees but there are a fantastically small amount that do well in South Florida.
Pecans?
They grow great over in Lafayette LA
If there were such an animal here, I’d be all over it.
No body wants to get their hands dirty. I can’t find a “food” nursery to save my life, so I have to order seeds by mail.
There are CSAs here but they are all full. Well, the website says … maybe with the economy tanking they have some cancellations.
Be sure the CSA grows stuff you eat. I was in one for a season and they grew all kinds of stuff I didn’t even recognize. I just wanted the basics, but that’s not what I got.
Oh, I’ll eat it. I r creative.
I’m tired of the basics.
OK, you must be one of those creative types who knows how to cook, eh?
Have you tried square foot gardening the yields can be impressive.
I’ve got a few beds in the back yard already. So far just doing onions and pineapple; haven’t had time to get much else done. Memorial weekend I’m going to start some lettuces spinach and carrots indoors in pots.
But I dont’ have room to, say, throw down a patch of melon or zukes or a big strip of peas or beans or corn.
go for it- if you have to deal w a bank you will require allot of patience
first owner still has it; up for sale with small sign.
Call the owner and see if you can lease it…
Firefox,
The people I rented the farm from leased out portions of their property. I’m pretty sure that’s a common practice in this area. Perhaps heading to the local supply store and posting a request or asking around could net you some leads on that.
The owner was also considering renting out small plots for about $25/year w/the stipulation that a percentage of food produced there would go to the local food pantry. I know a few farmers that were open to a similar arrangement.
supply store? hee. I know of one in Miami; used to be one in the Gables that also bought Samauri Swords.
Maybe if I tool out to the Acreage or something there will be something. Thanks!
I’m curious whether such a statistic as “homes for sale per capita” or “per 1,000 population” would be relevant to comparing communities with vastly different populations?
In an earlier post this week, a realtor was quoted as saying a particular community was better off than another because there were fewer homes for sale. When you look at community population, you do see the smaller community had fewer homes for sale (as you would normally expect), but when you look the number of homes for sale per 1000 population, it appears as though the town of 5500 people is worse off than the town of 66000.
Any thoughts? Or just meaningless numbers?
Whether it’s meaningful or not is beside the point.
When a salesman is giving you statistics, he is trying to make a sale. So it really doesn’t matter what comes out of his mouth, the words are not useful.
The number of people in the town is irrelevant unless it is a good substitute for the number of people who want to move there and can either pay cash or get financing which is the demand.
Jobs and schools and quality of the housing supply are much more likely to be a way to gage demand than just the number of people who happen to live within the city limits.
There’s lies, damned lies, government statistics, then realtwhore statistics. Somewhere in that order.
That is brilliant, MAD Boy! I love it — especially for non-disclosure states, where it’s hard to get price data.
A little coffee humor this morning… I have never set foot in a Starbucks, but I may well check out ‘Slutbucks’. Seems to me these religious groups could find others way to save folks for the pit of hell.
http://www.startribune.com/nation/18969709.html?location_refer=Golf
Looks to me like they have a reporter who couldn’t be bothered to get off his or her butt and get a real story.
For Wall Street Workers, Ax Falls Quietly
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/business/16layoff.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=business
So quiet, in fact, that people refer to these cuts as stealth layoffs. Some bosses hardly say a word after people are fired. At Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, for example, the first clue that someone is gone can be e-mail messages that are returned to senders from a former colleague’s inactivated corporate address.
More and more this is just starting to resemble some dystopic fantasy, like Brazil for instance.
Buttle, Tuttle? Just names on a list and corporate titans no more.
more like atlas shrugged….
Good find, bizarro. So much for the US’s much ballyhooed “financial services” industry. Circling the toilet bowl. Wonder what this will do to places like NYC and Greenwich? Also, there was a great money quote in there about banks not making any money. Think about that. Banks not making any money.
…and record borrowing at the fastfood money window…They don’t have to make it the old fashined way..they just get a big bag of it at the drive thru….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aur2QcWbKf2U&refer=home
Hovnanian, trying raise cash also….
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080516/nef019.html?.v=51&.pf=real-estate
Hmmmm, this is curious….
“The amendment has been approved by the Lenders subject to issuance of the Notes.”
Why would they approve such additional borrowing? Oh, wait, here it is….
“The Notes would be secured on a second-priority lien basis….”
So does this make KHov a subprime borrower now?? The world comes full circle in each cycle.
Ah, so this is how the credit crunch reaches bottom.
Look at this quote from Ken Lewis that is in the Bloomberg article above.
Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis urged policy makers today to choose between bailing out Wall Street investment banks or letting the “hotbeds of risky financial innovation” fail as the market dictates.
“I understand the argument for opening up the Fed’s discount window to investment banks in this environment,” Lewis said in a speech today at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “But I’d also say that providing a public backstop to an inherently risky business that is not required to backstop itself is a tough sell for taxpayers.”
The intention is not to “sell” this to the taxpayers. The intention is to stick it to the taxpayers by force, aka “taxymeupthebooty”.
They realized that the fed’s normal set of free-for-banks reserves aren’t infinite?
The quote was: “Banks aren’t really making any money right now, and they haven’t been for a while.”
As an investor I consider employee scuttlebutt to be precious inside information on how well a company or industry is doing.
Quotes such as this confirms that the financial industry is screwed and will prpbably remain screwed for a long while.
Since the financials are the allocators of capital in our economic system this means the system is screwed as well.
A case for cash, IMO.
Most banks aren’t making money right now. Some are still making money hand-over-fist - e.g. JPM and Citi. Funny how the same set of the biggest banks seems to able weather the financial storms better than others. I wonder why that is?
Ask yourself this, which banks helped found the Federal Reserve? (the book “Creature from Jekyll Island” has the answer).
“Think about that. Banks not making any money.”
That caught my attention, Palmetto. I was thinking, Wasn’t it just a matter of months ago the headlines were trumpeting record profits? Would the stark turnaround be about moving items over from the Level 3 accounting?
MLS listings reach record high
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/14/realestate.html
There were 67,554 newly listed properties in Canada’s major markets last month — 17.7 per cent more than a year earlier.
Whenever I look at the Canadian real estate news, it’s like looking into the year ago real estate news in the US. The containment continues to spread.
containment continues to spread
so maybe CMHC should demand 10% down - seems like its policy is to hold the barn doors open until the horses have left
Just like the US, we’re going to see alot of different outcomes based on geography. BC is the most overpriced and still slowly appreciating last I heard. I’m guessing big crash for them. Prairies seem to be leveling off, so they might get away with small decreases and extended sluggishness. Ontario and Quebec will drop as high prices and recession collide. East coast is starting a late run up as they start their own oil boom. But on the bright side, it’s different here.
Good. Prices are losing their froth, especially out West, like they should be. Saskatchewan should always be a cheap place to buy a house anyways.
FYI,
We did a wordpress upgrade this morning, and as with most, not everything is working. I appreciate your patience.
But I really like that you end up back where you were after hitting the “Add comment” button instead of at the top. Nice upgrade, Ben. Thanks.
Learn something new everyday, i always wondered why some blogs do that and ben’s didnt.
—–OH Great news Everybody Tropicana Orange juice is now 89 ounces down from 96 ounces last week and still the same high price..
No inflation here folks…
Thanks for the heads up. I usually buy Florida’s Natural because it only has U.S. juice in it, but I’m sure they will follow suit - did the price stay the same?
I’m Canadian, and I’ll only buy Tropicana when I can. It comes in 3.78 L size which is 1 US gallon, but there is another weird size out which is 2.84 L or 3/4 US gallon. Stores usually offer the specials on this reduced size only.
Thank you ben. I spend a bunch of time searching for my jumping off spot. Now my pointer stays in the same place.
That’s not working for me here quite yet.
If you fix that, Ben, that’s awesome, because otherwise I wind up scrolling through a huge thread on my BlackBerry…
Yes,
I noticed that also. Thank you Ben
foreign bubble update:
“Bank of England warns no more rate cuts before 2010 as credit crisis deepens” http://tinyurl.com/6jtepb
The UK cookie jar seems to be empty, the future does not look very bright with declining economy, declining home prices (probably for some years to come) and accelerating inflation.
The New Zealand economy is on the brink of recession, housing sales are at the lowest level in 16 years and consumer confidence is plunging. More trouble for homeprices seems a sure bet after years of runaway homeprice inflation. Of course, just like in the UK, analists are crying for rate cuts from the central bank despite the fact that inflation is still above the norm (inflation targeting is the major policy issue for the NZ central bank).
http://tinyurl.com/3gqbgx
At the same time, economic growth in that other housingbubble paradise, the Netherlands, came to a sudden standstill last month despite reassurance from politicians and many economists that the Dutch economy is extremely healthy. Contrary to the US, wages in Netherlands are going up quickly for parts of the workforce (mostly the better paid half …). Of course, costs for most households are going up at even higher pace. But the Dutchies are lucky, the equity extraction game still compensates for declining real incomes. Looks like the Dutch bubble will be the last one to pop
One thing I like about New Zealand, is the people are generally much more honest about everything, as exhibited by these rotten numbers.
“Employment slumped by 28,000 workers in the first quarter, more than 10 times the pace forecast by economists, according to a government report on May 8. House sales fell to a 16-year low in April, the Real Estate Institute said May 12.”
UN: World economy on brink of severe downturn; will only grow by 1.8 percent this year
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/un_world_economy.html
The U.N. economists said the deepening credit crisis in major market economies triggered by the U.S.-led slump in housing prices, the declining value of the U.S. dollar, persistent global imbalances and soaring oil and commodity prices pose considerable risks to economic growth in both developed and developing countries.
There doesn’t seem to be much of a decoupling in these statements.
Maybe we’ll discover some alien civilization on another planet we can trade with and the globule economy can really take off. But, what would they want to trade for?
Humans for dessert.
“The recollections of one Michael Chambers, with appropriate flashbacks and soliloquy. Or more simply stated, the evolution of man, the cycle of going from dust to dessert, the metamorphosis from being the ruler of a planet to an ingredient in someone’s soup. It’s tonight’s bill of fare on the Twilight Zone.”
“How do you like kids? Well done, well done.”
WC Fields
Who cooked the books?
It’s a cookbook!!!!
“To Serve Man”
Bonus points if you know what 50’s Sci-Fi movie thats from.
The one with Klaatu?
You mean, they won’t be down with the whole service-based economy?
Think oil is going to decline much? Think again.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cheap-oil-may-history-100/story.aspx?guid=%7B91EC5E18%2DBC7A%2D4AD8%2D96DD%2DB1CE4DED2543%7D
Gas in the Middle of Nowhere - went up 4 cents overnight $3.62 gallon
This week I read a proposed solution - form OGEC, Organization of Grain Exporting Countries. Subsidize poor countries and stick it to OPEC at the bargaining table. I’d imagine China would end up on hind tit with a plan like that.
Oooh I like this
oil up:
May 16 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil rose to a record above $127 on speculation China will need to increase diesel purchases for its power plants, straining limited supplies.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=adxkCPSUg4a4&refer=energy
buck down:
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The dollar fell against most major currencies Friday ahead of the release of the April housing starts report, which economists expect to decline to 1991 levels.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/dollar.html?.v=2
Buy in May and you’ll be gay!
no, not that kind of gay.
not that there’s anything WRONG with that.
It’s interesting that the spread for gasoline is 75% less than last year - I take that to mean that the increase in oil prices has reduced their margin per barrel by 75%. Which by extension means that they were making a killing per barrel in margin last year. Looks like some real increases in gas prices are coming up.
What a lot of people don’t seem to realize is that oil companies are vertical monopolies. When the price of crude goes up, it doesn’t cost any more to pump the barrel of oil. All that happens is that the oil company charges ITSELF more for the oil, passes that along to all of us, then makes a killing at the pump. Remember that oil companies have deals with the Arabs re production and sales. That’s why oil companies have been making such enormous profits lately. They’re paying themselves.
You make a good point, I guess that accounts for a lot of the profits made by integrated companies like Exxon Mobil and the shrinking profits of indy refiners like Valero who have to buy the oil that they refine. Read something from a post a couple days ago here.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/29/news/companies/Valero_earnings.ap/index.htm?section=money_latest
Senate negotiators broke off talks last night without striking a deal to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners at risk of foreclosure, but they said they were close to an agreement.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/15/AR2008051504008.html
“Shelby has long sought tougher regulation for the companies. But he has opposed the foreclosure-prevention plan, arguing that it would force taxpayers to cover the cost of bailing out irresponsible borrowers. Yesterday, the aide said, Shelby agreed to support the plan if taxpayers don’t have to foot the bill.”
At least one senator sees a problem with asking other taxpayers to chip in money to reward lenders and borrowers who made foolish decisions.
yes, and note the party
yea, there are maybe 5 real gop left the rest are voting for the farm bill
go LP.org……….. and keep banging the reps for “NO BAIL”
“Shelby agreed to support the plan if taxpayers don’t have to foot the bill.”
So what is it that he would end up supporting?
“Dodd and other Democrats want to relax FHA eligibility standards further, authorizing the agency to insure mortgages for even the least creditworthy borrowers if lenders will forgive a portion of their debt and issue new, smaller loans with lower monthly payments. The government would not hold the mortgages but would agree to pay off lenders if borrowers default. ”
Oh, well, thank goodness the government won’t hold the mortgages, just make sure the lenders are compensated for their outrageously irresponsible and highly profitable lending practices.
Sheesh.
The more I think about it, this talk of “rescuing” lenders and borrowers seems like one of the most incredibly brazen maneuvers by a industry lobbying group to funnel tax money to itself, ever.
Are there other, similarly brazen examples?
Off hand the only one I can think of is the Chrysler bailout in which the government gave a 1.2 billion dollar loan to Chrysler to prevent them from going into bankruptcy in 1979. I don’t think its working out so good in the final analysis .
In the Quail Ridge subdivision, for-sale signs have popped up like the overgrown grass choking lawns of four-bedroom and five-bedroom homes, costing as much as $450,000, that never should have been built.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121089798170797283.html?mod=todays_us_money_and_investing
Heheh, I remember Quail Ridge when it was a couple of model homes and a lot of dirt in a cow pasture. That’s the problem with NW Arkansas. Despite having WallyWorld and several large employers such as JB Hunt and the U of A. There is very little real industry besides finance and services and poultry. The vast majority of the folks there can’t afford what they’ve been building for years now and there are only so many of the well healed who actually can.
Now the funny money mortgages are off the market, it’s all collapsing.
Worried about gas prices hitting $4 a gallon and beyond? Imagine if they were $6, $7 or even $8 a gallon. Those levels are a certain possibility should Congress pass cap-and-trade legislation, which could face a vote in early June.
L]et me tell you what’s heading down the tracks,” Sessions said to BMI on May 14. “In a few weeks, we expect that the cap-and-trade legislation that’s been voted out of Sen. Barbara Boxer’s (D-Calif.) Environment and Public Works Committee will be on the floor and according to the Environmental Protection Agency it will increase gas prices by $1.50. The National Association of Manufacturers says it will increase it as much as $5 per gallon.”
The Senate defeated a measure to drill in ANWR on May 13. The vote, an amendment to another bill, was killed by a vote of 42-56, largely along party lines. Only one Democrat voted for the amendment, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), and five Republicans voting against it.
Inhofe blamed Democratic policies going as far back as the Clinton administration.
“The Democrats are the reason we have high prices at the pumps, and we’re not going to be able to alleviate that until we start producing again in America,” Inhofe added. “And I knew this was happening way back, well 10 years ago, when President Clinton vetoed the bill that would have allowed us to drill in ANWR. I said on the Senate floor that day 10 years ago that in 10 years we would regret this. It’s now 10 years later.”
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080515172437.aspx
Inhofe blamed Democratic policies going as far back as the Clinton administration.
So this is polemic. Wake me up when they get to problem solving.
Inhofe blamed Democratic policies going as far back as the Clinton administration…
…conveniently stopping his time machine before it could go back as far as the the policies of the Reagan Administration..or the Carter Administration.
WE can’t drill our way way out of the oil problem. All it would do is drop the price by maybe a dime and delay the invetiable for 2 or 3 years if that long. A higher gas price is good as it will provide incentive to look for viable LONG TERM alternatives.
“A higher gas price is good…”
Then I suppose higher food costs and higher health costs are also good, because they will force people to consume less of them.
Oh, and of course higher house costs are also good.
A higher gas price will be an incentive to finally look for alternatives to a clearly dwindling resource and speculative bubble.
When gas prices were cheap, there was no incentive to find alternative energy sources, now there is. For our long term economic outlook, this is a good thing. For the short term, it will drag down the economy in multiple ways and create a lot of pain.
I don’t mind if the proceeds go directly to the national debt and the budget is balanced. This keeps it from being pissed away in misspent research “incentives”.
If the incentive isn’t high enough for ya, then keep raising the tax
“A higher gas price is good as it will provide incentive to look for viable LONG TERM alternatives.”
At least someone gets it. Fuel should have been surcharged $2-4/gallon years ago.
Yes, that would be a true Excise tax, as opposed the IRS crock of imposed crap.
Devvy Kidd the Dynamite Redhead has many a good article on the excise tax subject.
yes, here in Netherlands were gas is close to $10 already thanks to energy tax, car drivers are finally waking up and choosing smaller, more efficient cars. They are not driving less yet, but that will come too if prices keep rising. And no, the economy has not suffered yet and government coffers are swelling like never before as result of the huge energy tax (’pollution/CO2 tax’).
Also, I have not seen any influence on housing policy yet, if prices keep going up one would expect that people will choose smaller homes with better energy efficiency as well. Officially all recent homes that are sold here should have an energy use label, but to date it has zero effect on the choices people make (probably because the energy labeling scheme is crap).
It’s may seem rather quaint and amazing to young people in this day and age but…
Probably 97-98% UK and Europe’s mode of private transportation up until the1950’s was bicycle. They had excellent train and bus service between the wars but large populations in major cities used pedal power too and survived very well. Asia and India as well as the rest of the world tooled along rather well too although the Artic areas north of Milwaukee relied a lot on fish fuel and pooch power.
Perhaps if we had legislation restricting politicians, coporations. lobbyists and soldiers BACK to bicycles we’d have a few less problems, not so much hot air and less global warming.
We’d have less wars because even the mighty 82nd Airborne would play hell trying to cycle all the way to cycling to Baghdad. We’d probably need to bust up a few cell phones, ipods, blackberries and whatever to to make it work on Wall St and DC.
If nothing else it might keep them and their fat a$$E$ busy and OUT of trouble so the rest of us could try enjoying LIFE a little more without all the wasteful taxation, spending, fighting and speculation
My dad had to ride a bicycle into town when he was on leave while based in England during World War II. Once they came back from leave on their bicycles, and found that their base had been destroyed by German bombs.
What about heating oil? maybe we should have more wood burning fireplaces?coal? talk about greenhouse gases. Solar? sure, after that capital investment we’ll really be tied to our homes. I’m all for driving less with smaller vehicles (and I do), but you eco-nuts are just that, nuts. BTW, I was all for a large surcharge when gas was $ 1.10/gal. People can’t afford to heat their homes and your only answer is alternative energy? No, it will take a much more comprehensive plan, that includes nuclear and, yes, more drilling.
ANWR is just a drop in the bucket. It’s 10 years away and at best will give us 1% of what we use today. And it still doesn’t solve the long term problem.
We need to move away from oil.
Inhofe blamed Democratic policies going as far back as the Clinton administration.
How do you have Repub control of Congress for 12 years of the last 14 and a president for six of those years and blame the Dems? I didn’t hear Inhofe support increased CAFE standards, which would be more helpful than drilling ANWR (not that I’m against drilling in ANWR).
Inhofe is a bigger clown than most of our fearless leaders:
In an interview, he heaped criticism on what he saw as the strategy used by those on the other side of the debate (global warming) and offered a historical comparison.
“It kind of reminds . . . I could use the Third Reich, the big lie,” Inhofe said.
The big lie is that we can produce our way out of oil dependence. Us oil production has been falling since the 70’s and many other fields are producing less as well. ANWR is a blip in world oil production. The only meaningful way to reduce our dependence on foreign oil is to reduce consumption. The fastest way to do this is raise the price. US consumption has fallen in the last two quarters. If our government had been smart they would have taxed gas to 5 bucks a gallon 10 years ago and used the money to reduce income taxes. Then our country would have been designed around expensive energy. Instead we have sprawling suburbs. Now gas will go to 5 bucks a gallon, but all of that money will be going overseas to enrich our good friends in Iran and Saudi Arabia.
I think the idea was to quickly lower dependence on foreign oil by simply stealing it from the foreigners; that proved to be a slight miscalculation
Concur. The good news is, we won’t be trying that again anytime soon, ’cause we simply can’t afford it. Printing $$$ to the level required would be noticed by even the dimmest bulb in the chandelier.
Prof bear loves comex 100 ozers:
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=gc08m
The current price in your article is $879.90.
The chart in your article shows it was over $1,000 just a couple of months ago.
LOL.
The price is only down 12 pct in two months, which compounds to an annualized rate of decline of ((1-.12)^6-1)*100 = 54 pct. But don’t worry — gold prices (like stock and housing prices) always go up, over the long run.
I think in time you will regret your dismissal of gold & silver as legitimate stores of value, short term volatility notwithstanding. Just my opinion of course :).
I did a math calculation, then noted that asset prices generally inflate over the long run. Where is the dismissal to which you refer (esp. to silver)?
I guess after having read several of your comments the past few months that appeared to me to be antagonistic towards the concept of gold as a store of value, I assumed perhaps incorrectly, that you were of the opinion that gold/silver were not monetary metals and thus useless as a hedge against what is coming. I included Silver because I always link them together in my mind, not because I recall a specific comment made by yourself.
My purpose in the comment was not intended to insult or offend. I was only making the statement that if you are of the opinion that gold is irrelevant in the context of what we are going to witness with regard to competitive currency debasement and specifically US dollar devaluation, I believe you will soon be convinced otherwise. Sorry if I mis-characterized your position.
Argent Provocateur now, Professor?
One sign of a bubble (which some posters here noticed with respect to housing circa 2005) is that the true believers are easily riled by anyone who questions their position. This is much like religion, and I should probably refrain from making comments, as I hate to argue about religious beliefs.
Actually Professor, it’s the other way around…
All religions are based upon blind faith, as is your trust in the Dollar.
I shall refrain from making further observations/comments concerning the barbarous metal going forward in order to assuage fears that I’m a religious nutcase!
Here is an item that may interest you:
Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings
Traders speculate U.S. officials pushed other nations for greenback support
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:18 p.m. EDT May 15, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Currency traders now suspect U.S. and European finance officials of some atypical arm-twisting to support the U.S. dollar at last month’s G7 meeting, a gathering that initially made little splash in currency markets.
Keep believing the MSM, and hoard those fiatscos. Eyes wide shut.
These “fiatscos”, seem to be much in demand lately. People have discovered they can be very useful toward solving their financial problems.
My fiatscos are still useful for purchasing food and energy, though decreasingly so as time goes by…
“America…our FED has FAILED you”
“Oh yeah…and YOU are really BROKE now ”
seems the armtwisting worked well again today, dollar down 1.5% vs. euro
What does “100 oz” mean anyway?
I believe it’s a 100-ounce bar, as opposed to coins or other quantities.
Given the lead-in, I think there are a fair number of us here who fall into a “third-party” category with regard to precious metals. I like them and own them strictly as a hedge, rather than as an investment that I expect to increase in value with a rational amount of predictability. For me, it is insurance against disaster, along roughly the same line as bottles of water and batteries during hurricane season, and food and ammo in other circumstances.
But the price didn’t seem to match 100 oz of gold ??
(or is it a per oz price for a 100 oz bar?)
I suddenly feel like a laboratory rat inside someone else’s experiment this morning. I thought experimentation on human subjects was illegal, but apparently the Fed makes up its own rules.
PAGE ONE
Bernanke’s Bubble Laboratory
Princeton Protégés of Fed Chief
Study the Economics of Manias
By JUSTIN LAHART
May 16, 2008; Page A1
PRINCETON, N.J. — First came the tech-stock bubble. Then there were bubbles in housing and credit. Chinese stocks took off like a rocket. Now, as prices soar on every material from oil to corn, some suggest there’s a bubble in commodities.
But how and why do bubbles form? Economists traditionally haven’t offered much insight. From World War II till the mid-1990s, there weren’t many U.S. investing manias for them to look at. The study of bubbles was left to economic historians sifting through musty records of 17th-century Dutch tulip-bulb prices and the like.
The dot-com boom began to change that. “You were seeing live, in action, the unfolding of lots of examples of valuations disconnecting from fundamentals,” says Princeton economist Harrison Hong. Now, the study of financial bubbles is hot.
Anyone think that coffee has gotten: “Frothy”
Oh, and they connect the dots to Sub-prime “loan-owners” in CA. 
Starbucks too (SBUX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) blamed some of its recent disappointing performance on a new unwillingness among subprime-hit coffee drinkers in California and south Florida to pay top dollar for stimulants.
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSL1572035920080516?sp=true
… new
unwillingnessinability among subprime-hit coffee drinkers in California and south Florida to pay top dollar for stimulantsI am personally enjoying my $3.50/lb french roast from the big blue can at Trader Joe’s — coffee is as good as SBUX, without the massive sugar infusion, or the 200 pct markup…
I totally agree that it tastes like sbux.
Grind my own 100% Kona @ 8 bucks a 1 pound bag (shipping included) courtesy of a buddy in HI.
Try the Smooth and Mellow beans - they are fantastic. Also the good stuff from Burundi.
I agree that the French Roast tastes like sbux - sorry to say - because both are over-roasted.
Forgot the disclaimer - IMHO and YMMV
Yes they know the meaning of roasted^T^T^T^T^T^T^Tburnt.
My wife buys Starbucks beans at BJ’s Club for what she says is a reasonable price. Claims a bag lasts her 3 months. I don’t drink coffee, so can’t confirm the stats. She uses an electric coffee grinder that currently costs $20 at most and lasts about 4-5 years, grinding every day. She’s never gone into a retail Starbucks store.
Troubled by bubbles: Central bankers re-examine the hands-off approach
By Krishna Guha
Published: May 15 2008 19:45 | Last updated: May 15 2008 19:45
In the aftermath of the dotcom crash in 2002, Alan Greenspan famously argued that central banks had little power to stop bubbles inflating and then bursting. All policymakers could do, said the then Federal Reserve chairman, was to “focus on policies to mitigate the fallout when it occurs”.
His most vocal supporter was Ben Bernanke, then a Fed governor. As an academic, Mr Bernanke had championed the view that central banks should ignore asset prices except insofar as they affect forecasts for inflation and growth. “Even putting aside the great difficulty of identifying bubbles in asset prices, monetary policy cannot be directed finely enough to guide asset prices without risking severe collateral damage,” he said in 2002.
I think HeliBen now prefers a ‘hands-off policy’ so he does not have to raise FED rates himself when inflation gets out of hand. On the way down he still support the hands-on policy.
Housing starts above consensus. Why is anybody “starting” ANY house?
Maybe they’re referring to shantytowns. I’m sure that’s where the “housing starts” are coming from.
Th headlines on this have been very misleading. Single family home starts are down 1.7% from March while multifamily starts were up 36%- this is after a 35% drop in March. The data also shows that SFH starts are the lowest since 1991. Now does MFH housing starts also include rental apartments being built?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azqS_xhB_4E4&refer=home
Yes, the increase was wholly from multi-family. Good, we can watch all that apartment building really impale condo markets across the U.S. Go ahead boys, build your apartments - all those accidential condo landlords out there ought to be changing into some new drawers on this news.
I hope my former landlord is one of those diaper men.
Not sure what the value is in comparing month-to-month numbers for apartment building construction.
Does the fact that March, which saw uncommonly bad, snowy weather in much of the country, postponed large construction projects, which could not start until things cleared in the Spring?
I live in Norfolk, Virginia. There is a number of new apartment projects starting. Some 1000+ units are starting construction. Of course they are all going to be luxury, and all are going to ask prices at the top of the market. Meanwhile, the better paid people most likely already own houses. I still think all young people should flee the area due to lack of quality jobs.
To unload land at better than $.20 on the peak $1.
As Ben says, proof it will prove impossible to stop house prices from falling. For every house the powers that be save from foreclosures or refi to govt. backed loan or whatever, another new home will be built, adding more excess supply and forcing prices lower.
The sooner prices bottom out, the sooner the builders stop building, the shallower and shorter the bottom will be.
I’m going to invest in those cardboard boxes that refrigerators come in.
Anyway, txchick, I have a question: Why are WS futures up on speculation that the housing market has turned because housing starts are slightly up? Why is this market rally occurring at all? I’m trying to keep up with the latest news and analysis, but none of it seems to make sense when the stock market just keeps on going up.
Oh, and txchick when you comment on this question, please remember that I am but a simple physicist and am not schooled in such things as this.
Roidy
“I’m going to invest in those cardboard boxes that refrigerators come in. ”
Every time the market goes haywire I freak out and pretend I have to move again. I want eight “fridge” boxes so I can pack in a day. I must confess I have a lot of extra stuff. But hell, I won’t need to go to target or costco forever, so I am set!
That is another good idea for the boxes. I was looking at those as an affordable housing option, though.
Roidy
Option expiration. Trying to break it out.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/nasdaq-nyse-risk-Behavior-return-technology/index/a/17175
one thing I have seen in the past year is when they all start riding the nasdaq and beta stocks like crazy, you’re usually at or near the end of whatever rally is going on. Like now.
I looked at the link. So, I guess you mean that when Mr. Market starts mainlining risk like it doesn’t matter, then things are going to get really bad? It’s all a matter of risk then? Like when the talking head idiots started saying that “We’ve seen the fear in the market, and Bear Sterns signaled the bottom!” it was time to take risk again without any real thought on the matter? That sounds like a good way to loose a whole lotta money.
Roidy
Bear Stearns signaled “a” bottom. Not “the” bottom. Guessing that’s a few years away yet.
Please be careful txchick57…
txtoast57 …just doesn”t have the same ring to it
costco has those humongous 100 person tent, i think, for 99 buck. that will work out very well. you can be in a car camping mode for a long time.
Apartment House bubble. Next big thing. Buy NOW or be priced out forever!
Housing starts up 8.2%. The bottom is in. Thank god house prices will start going up soon - that was close. Ramen noodles suck.
Up 8.2 pct from what level? I have seen little recent evidence of any home construction activity at all in North County San Diego, at the end of several years when construction occurred at a mania pace.
I’m selling short some SPY at 143. The 1259 of January looks like a good buy now, doesn’t it?
What has happened so far, about reconstruction of all the homes that burnt down in Tijuana-adjacent last year?
There has been some reconstruction (though I am not keeping score), but bear in mind that the number of homes that burned down was a miniscule share of the SD housing stock.
Are ya like me, folks? When you see a lyin’ sack of sh*t spinbag propaganda story that you KNOW is package of pus, do your fingers curl into a position where the thumbs are positioned to press on a windpipe?
Fetal position works for me.
Note to self: sign up for Brazilian JuJitsu classes
Looks like a good day to pick up a little more BEARX
Bull@#$%
Hoax revealed
Bailout Infuriates Tenants (And Forbes)
AngryRenter.com says it represents tenants fearful that they will never be able to buy their own homes — but it’s actually the product of an inside-the-Beltway conservative advocacy organization led by Dick Armey and Steve Forbes.
I don’t think that was any secret. It’s been on many TV shows with Armey being interviewed.
Agreed — the story was already out, but seeing it on p. 1 of the WSJ adds weight…
Yeah it’s on YouTube.
“…conservative advocacy organization”
That is concerned about…renters?
Bugs: “eh, I don’t think so.”
They apparently don’t like the idea of nonparties to private contracts coerced into bailing out the contracting parties’ bad gambling debt. This is a serious violation of conservative principles, so it is easy to see why Forbes and Armey would be “up in arms.”
Anytime the government sets aside or modifies contract rights, they usually upset the parties expectations and add additional time or financial or economic impacts to the original deal. If parties can’t guarantee a contract will hold up as originally bargained for, they will overreach or not do the deal at all, both bad for our economy. I would hope this is a concept which is not favored by most Americans and not just a conservatives ….
“He earns $100,833 a year for four hours a week working for FreedomWorks Inc …”
Math can be fun! …
Four hours a week times 52 weeks equals 208 hours.
$100,833 divided by 208 hours equals $484.79 per hour.
(I wonder if they are hiring?)
Warning: Do not believe anything Steve Forbes says. I clearly remember Forbes on Money claiming that there is no housing bubble and there never will be.
Hey Forbes! (_*._)
Roidy
$10-70 of oil prices - WS speculation?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/16/news/economy/oil_speculator/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
It is OK to speculate on a house or gamble in the stock market, but if it costs elections then speculation is a no-no. 14MM BBL goes to Asia every day, 14MM BBL goes to Europe every day and 14MM BBL goes to the US every day. (Recently Europe is down to 13MM BBL).
Oil going up is not inflation, it is higher price due to demand and scarcity, but oil going up like this will cause mass inflation in every product.
Meanwhile back at the oasis the Arabs are eating their dates. Net transfer of wealth at average $125/bbl to oil exporters $1T.
Agree that supply and demand are the main drivers, but inflation does play a role. Oil is still (mostly) prices in depreciating fiastcos (USD).
Middle East oil used to come out of the ground at a cost of under $2.00 per barrel. Wars came and went.
Same Middle East, same oil fields, same size barrels, same pumping stations. Another war.
Hummm…amazing what a apparant limited availablity, a little WS speculation, bidding wars and some termoil can PRODUCE.
“Better Buy NOW…or the greedy Chinese and Indians will buy ALL your Memorial Day GAS.. and you will be trapped all summer, away from Mom, apple pie and the lake “.
Like housing…it’s the American way
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
“Abqaiq, an aging super giant Saudi Arabian oil field, has yielded over 11 billion barrels of oil since it was discovered in November of 1940. Its past provides us with the poster child for easy oil. The first well flowed at 9720 barrels per day, a far cry from today’s land finds where multiple horizontal laterals are necessary to coax lesser quantities from stingier reservoirs. But Abqaiq’s more recent past paints a more muddled picture, as efforts to extract the remaining oil have produced mixed results. More advanced recovery methods have been successfully employed in some parts of the field, but these have likewise revealed unexpected geological complexities which have in turn hindered recovery in other areas. Many of the new challenges encountered in Abqaiq are relevant to the future prospects for other fields, particularly Ghawar and Khurais….”
http://satelliteoerthedesert.blogspot.com/
May 15
There appears to be less oil in Saudi Arabia than the Sauds project.
The “Saudi Arabian Empty Quater” is very big…and hardly empty
Quarter…Hell, I’ve been out there and can”t even spell it haha
As much as I hate to ask, does anyone know at what rate new homes are currently selling? Subtract from 1.032 million to learn the current rate at which overbuilding of new homes is occurring.
Housing Starts Post Surprise Rise
By Jeff Bater
Word Count: 462 | Companies Featured in This Article: Toll Brothers
…
Housing starts increased 8.2% to a seasonally adjusted 1.032 million annual rate, driven higher by a surge in apartment building construction, the Commerce Department said Friday. Starts plunged 13.8% in March to 954,000, the data showed; Commerce initially estimated March starts down 11.9% to 947,000.
Are they applying the BLS birth/death model to housing now, too?
For example, since the big builders went out of business, new smaller builders must have taken up the slack and increased production…
New home sales (released 4/24) was 526,000 seasonally-adjusted annual rate.
“April single-family housing starts decreased 1.7% to 692,000. Construction of housing with two or more units soared 36.0% to 340,000; within that category, groundbreakings of homes with five or more units — or multi-family — were 40.5% higher.”
The comparable figure to 526,000 is 692,000 starts, as the 526K only applies to SFRs (one-family houses). However, it appears that at face value, the overbuilding is still proceeding at a 692,000 - 526,000 = 166,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate — enough to gradually build new home inventories and sink prices further in due time.
garden squatting ! you don’t even need a generator
can anyone review the bump in housing starts?
An interesting discussion on why people do or do not bike to work:
http://blog.epa.gov/blog/2008/05/12/qotwbikingtowork/
What is interesting is so many people say they would like to but can’t because they live 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 miles from their workplace. Yikes!
I wonder if this ties in with the housing mania. People driving until they qualify, because they need more housing as an “investment,” or too tied down to move when they change jobs.
The worst part about biking to work is the motorists. Of course, one has to show them some sympathy. After all, they’re paying over $4 for reg. here now. What a life, sit in traffic, go make some donuts, pay for your granite and stainless, and then walk the dog you hold captive all day in your condo.
The visual all this evokes:
Remember when Archie Bunker used to play imaginary Russian Roulette when Edith used to babble?
If I’m out riding and a motorist annoys me, I adjust my glasses using my middle finger. And my glasses do need a lot of adjusting these days.
Not everyone who commutes to work is a homeowner paying for granite. I rent. I live semi-far from my work (25 miles, but in San Diego, that is considered not much) because I LOVE where I live. Don’t feel sorry for me. With so many job changes these days, I don’t believe in moving next to my job all the time. Don’t organize my whole life around my workplace. I’d rather live in the place I love and want to be on the weekend.
There seems to be a lot of fear of being on the roads, and my girlfriend felt the exact same way until she tried it a few times. It’s really a fear of the unknown, and sometimes we would go test out some new routes after we move apartments or change destinations. It’s really not as bad as one fears if you learn to ride assertive and safely.
Oddly enough, riding a bike can be safer than driving or motorcycling.
http://www.kenkifer.com/bikepages/health/risks.htm
The other problem is the distance, and while I don’t think riding 10 miles for a commute is any problem, to an unfit person even 5 miles may seem daunting. And on top of that, the time/money aspect of driving keeps people in their cars. The one good thing about high gas prices is that this equation is starting to tip in the cyclist’s favor. For example, a round trip of 20 miles is probably about 4 dollars a day, and my route takes about 40 minutes each way if I take a reasonable speed where I don’t get too sweaty. On top of that, I got rid of my gym membership a couple years back because I was getting plenty of exercise. (Not just commuting, but cycling has become quite a hobby of mine.) So I get nearly 1.5 hours of exercise, save trips to the gym, and save on gas/oil changes/car maintenance and it starts to add up. (I bought a new car over one year ago, and it’s only had 1 oil change at the 4k mark.)
Honestly, the biggest concern I have about commuting is how to keep from getting too dark. I tan easily even with sunblock on, so I always look like I just got back from vacation!
I think that site is where I learned to ride in traffic years ago.
It drives me crazy how many so-called “bike advocates “don’t know how to do it themselves, so will call for doing away with nice big wide shoulders on the main arteries because “it’s too scary to ride there.” I go through the “worst” intersection in the state on my communte and it’s been fine.
New job in 2 weeks and I intend to bike to work. I am soooooooooooooooooooo looking forward to it!
A Gamble That Went Bust
The collapse of ANB, an Arkansas bank that went bust last week in the biggest failure of a brick-and-mortar U.S. bank in more than a decade, is an ominous sign for many banks that gambled on real estate.
Worry not, cash is king and the banks have yours.
The banks DON’T have your CASH.
It’s ALL 0’s and 1’s but rest assured that the Gov’t computer programs can delete that in a matter of seconds
Cash is king, but the dollar isn’t.
“In dis world dey’s many folks think dey’s alive as ain’t alive.”
John Dos Passos
Pensacola, FL
Lots of resales and new homes for sale here in Northwest FL. Some of the new homes were built in 2006 and still for sale. The builders have slowly dropped their prices, but apparently not fast enough.
I finally got tired of a local realtor listing their stuff on craigslist, so I called and faked interest in one of their overpriced waterview, but not waterfront, properties. By the way, I already knew the answers to my questions, I just wanted to see how much the realtor would reveal up front. So, I called and asked her to tell me everything she knew about the property. After she finished with her glowing description of the property, I asked, “Has it ever been flooded?”. She replied, “Well, yes, it was flooded during hurricane Ivan, but it has been booooooooootifully remodeled…”. I act surprised and say, “oh my gosh, it’s been FLOODED?”. I finally tell her that I have no desire to purchase a previously flooded property. I did not do this to be mean-spirited, I just don’t like realtors leaving out critical pieces of important information. Also, realtors that post their stuff on craigslist really annoy me.
Yeah..Those hungry real estate weasels(TM) are flooding craigslists in every location, location, location
dennis,
are you in niceville?
Fed Officials Discuss Libor
Central-bank officials in the U.S. and U.K. are paying more attention to Libor after unusual moves in the rate and concerns about its accuracy.
As noted earlier in the week, the interest rates on $62 trillion in derivatives and mortgages are determined by the LIBOR rate.
Each one percent change in the LIBOR translates into a $620 billion change of this $62 trillion; each basis point change translates into a $6.2 billion change.
A question that needs to be asked: Just who is it that determines this LIBOR rate? Is it just one guy who has the final say?
If so, I’d like to meet him and become his new best friend.
Isn’t it an average of 16 mega banks?
“Isn’t it an average of 16 megabanks?”
Perhaps it is. But it looks as if the LIBOR is what the mega banks SAY it is rather than what it actually is.
What the mega banks say it is also may be “adjusted” by whomever has the final say.
Here is what I’m shocked by in my digging into trust deeds (houses taken back on court house steps).
A lot of people bought brand new houses last summer, then didn’t make a single payment.
In all these “deal of the century sales”, were they financing off the “regualr price” vs. the sail price?????
Buy a $300K house for $200K and we’ll hand you $100K back at closing??? Is that what was going on?
Seriously, I see lots of loans issued in June and July that were having notice of trustee sales scheduled by Dec or Jan!
http://156.42.40.50/UnOfficialDocs/pdf/20070842660.pdf
$200K loan on planned unit, closedin July with first payment due August.
In default before January.
http://156.42.40.50/UnOfficialDocs/pdf/20080075032.pdf
Taken back at foreclosure in May.
http://156.42.40.50/UnOfficialDocs/pdf/20080433250.pdf
Seriously, is EVERY new housing start simply next year’s foreclosure??? Are all those people waiting to buy in Mesa just waiting for their cash-back-at-closing check so they can live rent free for a month???
Suppose a loan guarantee program passes through Congress. Then banks have an incentive to help people buy homes they cannot afford now, as when the home goes into foreclosure, the bank is made whole (at Uncle Sam’s expense).
Not sure whether cash-back-at-closing loans will be covered by federal guarantees, though…
Darrell, it is not happening now, but it was happening big time in 2005 & 2006. We watched people buy houses from builders for $500,000 and put $750,000 loans on them. The lenders were companies like New Century, Ownit Mortgage, & First Franklin (all bankrupt) and later WAMU and Option One (both soon to be bankrupt IMHO). The cash back mortgage fraud was one of the contributors to the decline that the rating agencies completely ignored, though in some new subdivisions it was 25-30% of the sales. Even worse, the average buyer saw “sales comps” of $750,000 and paid that to the homebuilder unknowingly. Of course that is why the homebuilder let the mortgage fraudster in the door. Comps jump in value 25-50% in a declining market and the clueless lenders just did not get it.
It is impossible to do that today. Too many are paying a high price for this action and the lenders are paying attention now.
“The cash back mortgage fraud was one of the contributors to the decline that the rating agencies completely ignored, though in some new subdivisions it was 25-30% of the sales.”
Thanks for reminding me why I am a renter. It is very hard for an honest end user to compete in a home purchase market where fraud is rampant.
PB..Remember a couple of years ago when you and I were calling that incentive BS “fraud “. They were giving people under the table money to buy houses at that point in the bust . Of course it was fraud regarding the loans and appraisals . I just knew that they were not going to disclosed all the terms of the sales transaction to lenders ,because if they had ,the buyer would have to put more money down .Its not that hard to find jerks that will buy a house if you give them money to buy it ,or a paid for car ,(which is the same as cash ).To bad the lenders agents were in bed with the builders at that point of the bust cycle.
A lender is entitled to know all the terms of a transaction that would affect the true market value of that transaction and prevent the lender from lending the proper amount on the property . If the lender is lending 125% of the true value of a property than that loan risk has just shot up and the final investor of that loan paper risk has just gotten hoodwinked .
One of the reasons for a appraisal is to determine the fair market value of a property so the lender will know how much to lend on the property to control risk . if someone overpays for a property the lender (under normal prudent underwriting standards ) would demand more money down to offset the risk of the party paying more than the market seems to bear . it also prevent fraud and cash back schemes to have accurate appraisals .
If you have builders selling out tracks based on giving kickbacks to buyers to buy their junk homes ,than its not a arms length transaction and the purchase price is fake ,which causes the lender to lend more money than they should.
It’s fraud not to disclose all terms of the sales transactions to the lender and submitting 2 sets of papers is a fraud against the lender in a attempt to get more loan dollars than the borrower deserves .Escrow companies should have a requirement to disclose to lenders any outside of escrow agreements of funds passing to parties that suggest that the terms of the escrow were not the real terms in total .
Right now the entire industry is still so corrupt that it will take a a few new laws designed to spot the fraud ,(like requiring title companies or escrow companies to report to lenders the checks they are cutting ,before the loan funds ).
I’m sorry but when you have the sort of corruption that was taking place ,it doesn’t go away over night and the gamblers just think of new ways of trying to game the system .
In addition ,like you said Professor Bear ,it’s not fair to the buying public to have fraud deals make up market comps ,which raises property taxes and insurance cost ,not to exclude that it increases market values that will crash in the long run. Liar loans and speculator demand is a fake demand and when you compete with people who have no skin in the game or need to sell within 2 years ,its not a stable market .
IMHO ,the lenders had no right to make loans to these unqualified people, because you can only have a true market value and demand if you have a arms length transaction with a willing and able buyer and seller . Your not really a “able” borrower if you had to lie on the loan application . Your not really a able investor if you had to lie on the loan and say you intended to occupy the property ,but you really needed to sell within a short time or go bust . It was a fraudulent market in terms of anything that comes close to being “able ” borrowers .Does anybody have any doubts about why the market is crashing so extremely . The government just wants to hide the true nature of the the biggest loan fraud crime wave in history that was based on a Ponzi-scheme .
This financial alchemy calls to mind medieval efforts to turn water into gold.
Blackstone outlines strategy to turn debt into profit
By Henny Sender and Julie Mackintosh in New York
Published: May 15 2008 22:35 | Last updated: May 15 2008 22:35
Blackstone outlined a strategy to profit from the turmoil in the debt markets as it reported a $66.5m first-quarter loss that reflected a writedown on its investment in Deutsche Telekom and the dramatic decline in private equity activity.
The loss contrasted with a gain of $838.5m last year but Blackstone expressed confidence it could take advantage of the crisis in the credit markets by buying distressed debt – an increasingly popular strategy for private equity firms.
I prefer proven modern alchemy, where one can turn paper into Gold.
Good one
Didn’t Newton spend the last 20 years or so of his life trying to do that?
Those of us who drive to work are hosed.
Oil surges towards $130 a barrel
Crude oil prices hit a fresh record high, boosted by a Goldman Sachs’ forecast that crude oil prices would average $141 a barrel in the second half of the year - 14:31
I’m gonna retire on this SKF. Got another $2.60 off it so far.
That’s been my best trade of the year, as well. However, what SKF giveth, SRS has taken away…
With so many people putting their money in one place, this stock bubble is going to crash hard, when it eventually does crash. Diversification is key to a healthy stock market, and there are very few bright spots since last fall, so the money is all winding up (slowly) in one place. Look for another “Black Thursday of 1929″ by the end of this year.
I guess since oil is surging today, we should expect stocks to drop?
Stocks Rally as Oil Slips
The Dow industrials rose 94 points, as oil slipped after nearly reaching an intraday record. Investor sentiment has turned positive, despite mixed economic data and earnings.
This is what i don’t understand, Nigeria is right across the pond and they do nothing to settle the issue.
Double down the short again?
No. At some point Iran will have a buyer for the 20M bbl of heavy crude it’s sitting on (China?). That will pressure all other grades. Look at what aapl did on wednesday, this is ws scamming premium before expiration.
Buying those 2012 swaps @ $120 bbl doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
I feel sorry for people who can’t hedge inflation, but I don’t feel sorry for those who won’t hedge it.
Weren’t the grains a great inflation hedge? Where are they now?
Through the roof. Check out futures for soybeans, corn, etc.
Not anywhere near their spike highs (corn being the only exception).
Is the world still running out of wheat?
Not anywhere near their spike highs”
No kidding, but how about compared to a year ago? Pretty much the only thing at its’ ’spike high’ is oil, which you are short. With such logic, you should be on Fast Money.
For those readers with short memories:
Last March the news was filled with bubble talk of the massive global wheat shortage, of pending crop failures due to drought, of grain elevators being emptied of their wheat stocks. Because of this bubble talk the price of a July CBT wheat contract went well north of $12 a bushel.
Now that same July wheat contract can be bought for around $7.75, and the bubble talk is no longer heard.
There is a lesson here for those who care to pay attention.
Cheney-Shrub Legacy Update:
I wonder if he can chew pretzel’s & pedal at the same time?
“…The most expensive was a $6,160 bike that a Waterloo, Wis., manufacturer gave the president, an avid biker.”
Cheney’s wealth is triple that of Bush
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-bush-cheney-wealth-web-051508may16,0,2852621.story
Trek is headquartered in Waterloo Wisconsin and they still make their high-end bikes there. Six grand is not an extraordinary amount for the type of bikes built in that factory. I would bet that the bikes they made for Lance Armstrong cost at least double that amount.
They do make good bikes. And they’re also pretty picky about who they allow into their dealer network. You’d better be movin’ some Treks, or you’re outta there.
[The shop I worked for got kicked out of Trek-net. Boss just wasn't moving enough Trek.]
Although still expensive, there are also many closer to $2K for made in the USA carbon-fiber bikes. Probably, the last hold out for large scale production bikes made in the US, although there are very pricey custom frame builder shops around for enthusiasts. I gotta say though, it’s the best $2k I’ve ever spent considering how many miles I put on it and how much better my physical form has become. I also commute on it as mentioned in a post above.
I bought a canondale last year…don’t know if it’s made domestically or not, but a good bike I think. The frame I believe is aluminum with part of it being cf, I think it’s either the front forks or back part that is supposedly carbon fiber (I’m not a bike nut, I just bought one to ride with my wife). Anyway, I spent right at 2k, for the bike, clip pedals, shorts, gloves, clip shoes, extra drink holder. I don’t ride a lot (I would ride more if not for school), but I enjoy it and it’s a good enough bike to keep up with far more serious bikers if I were that serious about it.
Point being, one doesn’t need to drop 5 grand on a bike, or even 2 grand, but can get a good set of gear and be able to keep up with far more serious bikers for a whole lot less than 5k.
I agree on the $2k comment, though getting one made in the US at that price point is a bit harder. I recently picked up a Lemond (owned by Trek, for the moment) to start commuting with (see commuting comment up above) and I couldn’t be happier
I got my bike (1983 Peugout) for $25 at a garage sale. I put another 75$ into it - new seat, tires, brakes, and bearings. It’s great and if I wreck it or some one steals it, I’m not out a whole lotta cash.
Roidy
P.S. I ride it to work most days.
That’s the way to go. You can spend thousands to get a few pounds lighter bike, or you can just lose the pounds from the engine (your body).
Compared to 10 years ago, one can get a heck of a bike for $1000. I say this as someone who’s done Cycle Oregon a number of times and never spent more than $700 on a bicycle.
It looks like headline indexes are headed straight down. Am I missing something the marketwatchers see?
May 16, 2008 9:45 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Housing gets Street started
On the heels of unexpectedly upbeat housing-starts news, stocks are on the rise, even as Goldman Sachs forecasts $141-a-barrel crude.
Bring out your debt.
Bank of England repeats no limit on swap plan
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:13 a.m. EDT May 16, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) - The Bank of England on Friday said it still expects the special lending plan it introduced last month to total around 50 billion pounds ($97.3 billion), but reiterated there was no “arbitrary limit” on the size of the program.
Earlier, the Financial Times reported that Britain’s biggest banks were preparing to swap as much as 90 billion pounds worth of mortgage-backed securities with U.K. Treasury bills under the program, dubbed the Special Liquidity Scheme.
That rally was sure fun while it lasted
May 16, 2008 10:24 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Housing-starts rally finished
On the heels of unexpectedly upbeat housing-starts news, stocks spike, but that advance is reined in by crude prices and consumer mood.
The PPT came through with a photo finish at day’s end, leaving the headline indexes barely below their opening bell levels.
Folks aren’t buying house so there’s now a rush for the next bubble - apartment buildings. Look for those construction companies to overbuild the heck out of those now just to stay in business.
Lower rents are on the way. It’s all good!
Consumer sentiment falls in May, lowest since 1980
By Ruth Mantell
Last update: 10:00 a.m. EDT May 16, 2008
1980! OMG - we done gone and erased the Gipper’s legacy!
Jimmy Carter was president in 1980. Why do you think Reagan got elected?
How can the consumer be gloomy when the stimulus checks are hitting the mailboxes? Ingrates! All is well according to the talking heads….
We need Al Michaels to yell out “Do you believe in miracles”. That would cheer everyone up and fix this, right?
My stilmulus check is going toward some new car tires and a shinny new air filter. I have little 2000 buick regal with only 35k on it. My family doesn’t let me out much because me and my gas siphening hose just aren’t as fast as we used to be
Mine is a week late and the wife noticed it as well as news reports about errors. How could they credit a different bank account than the one they ripped thousands more from just a month ago? Should I worry that the IRS in a hurry is incompentant? I’ll probably get someone elses check.
Accomplished without: 15.5% + Volker induced mortgage rates!
I have found an interesting scam by my mortgage servicer- Wells Fargo. For three years I have sent electronic payments to “Wells Fargo” usually double my mortgage payment, and any excess was automatically applied to my equity.
Since January of this year this has not been the case. They have been applying any additional monies over the stated mortgage to future payments. My May statement stated that I didn’t owe anything until November. I called and asked them to apply this to my principal, which they did.
They said it’s just a switch in the computer- to apply it to principle or apply it to future payments. This amounted to $4000 in 5 months. It is obvious they have reset the computer for me. How many other customers have lost principal interest and are unwittingly letting Wells Fargo bank their money by a simple switch in the computer?
I’m not so sure that’s a scam. All the loans I’ve ever had have stated in the fine print what they do with additional monies unless you tell them specifically what to do with it. Perhaps there was a policy addendum that you missed earlier this year. I’d be willing to go with a shady move by WF, but probably not so much a scam.
One thing that annoyed me with my student loans was when I went to electronic payments instead of checks, there was no way to inform them automatically. The only solution they could come up with was to decrease the term of the loan until the payment matched what I wanted to pay each month. LOL.
RR,
From what I’ve read, you should not be paying down the mortgage early. You should be investing it. Here’s why:
When you pay down you mortgage you are building your equity. The problem is that the equity is trapped in your house and the bank controls access to it. You’ll have to go to the bank to take out a HELOC or refinance. It could be slow, you will incur fees and you will be increasing your debt.
RR, if you had to get at the equity you’ve invested in your home today, would WF grant you a loan? I would be worried that they might not give me a loan.
**Conflict of interest alert! The books were written by Financial advisors who mostly get paid according to how much you invest with them. (so if your money goes to your home, they don’t get to invest it)**
I would love to here some other thoughts on this.
Assuming, of course, people would have the SELF-DISCIPLINE to invest amounts not used in the lower monthly payments…
Allow me to speak for (some of) the board.
Most people here don’t think of houses as investments. We don’t consider the house to be an ATM or credit card, where “equity” is drawn upon for living expenses or other needs. If the house you choose to finance or purchase outright takes up such a large portion of your total net worth or cash flow that it must serve as a source of investment income, you’ve bought too much house.
A paid for house means a better night’s sleep for most people. Just like a paid for car, paid for TV, or paid for T-shirt. Paying interest for anything is for losers - let the losers pay YOU interest.
My two cents.
If you owe them money you have to pay them. If they owe you money they have to pay you. No @#$% Sherlock.
Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. ; )
We don’t consider the house to be an ATM or credit card, where “equity” is drawn upon for living expenses or other needs.
I certainly agree about the not using a house for living expenses, but when it comes to “other needs”, it’s hard to say, if it’s big medical, with a job loss combined…..a lot of people living within their means might need to look for help. If they look to squeeze some out of their home, I wouldn’t judge.
If you have real equity in a property you will always be able to get a loan against it. Bubble equity - not so much.
Nailed it
Thxs Asparagus,
I tend to believe like AZ lender. At my schedule, this house will be paid for in 21/2 years. Just about the time my contract with Pima County expires. If my contract is not renewed, I can sleep a lot better with no debts.
It’s AZ owner, and 2 1/2 years
From what I’ve read, you should not be paying down the mortgage early. You should be investing it.
You are paying 6% interest on your mortgage. If you investing it in non-stock investments, you are probably getting 3% interest. So, this kind of “investment” means you are losing money at a rate of 3% a year.
If you are investing in stocks, and don’t do it for a living, you are probably in it for the long term. Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500, one of the most touted indexes, has been flat for the past 10 years. If you casually play stock market poker (that is, invest in the market) with your eyes closed, you will probably lose lots of money at a fabulous rate.
Here’s why:
When you pay down you mortgage you are building your equity.
“Building equity” means you are paying off your debt.
The problem is that the equity is trapped in your house
“Equity trapped in your house” is just the amount of home debt you’ve paid off.
“… and the bank controls access to it. You’ll have to go to the bank to take out a HELOC or refinance. It could be slow, you will incur fees and you will be increasing your debt.
You can go deeper into debt if you wish, putting your home up as collateral, but for an individual doing it to buy consumable goods, it is a very bad and expensive decision.
RR, if you had to get at the equity you’ve invested in your home today, would WF grant you a loan? I would be worried that they might not give me a loan.
“Getting at the equity you’ve invested in your home” means going into debt and putting your house up as collateral.
People used to say what “liberating your equity” was - it was going into debt, putting your house up as collateral. Till sophisticated marketers came up with the “Liberate your equity” silliness. Then people starting putting their houses up as collateral to buy things like TV’s and cars.
Glorious idiocy in my opinion, a triumph of marketing, putting one’s house up as collateral for a loan to buy TV’s and cars and various luxury items.
Think that’s scary. I have a large amount of money in a CD in one of my smaller banks.
Last week my CD and amount disappeared from my monthly statements.
This week I got a letter stating that they were going to change their NAME after 85 years.
The building WAS still there yeaterday.
Move along, everything is fine, nothing to see here mikey
I posted this before but kind of late for that day:
Coyote Springs: Imagining the Next Great Ghost Town
‘Sim City’, NV, 1.27.2007 (44 photos)
http://www.roamingphotos.com/us/nv/coyotesprings/
LOL! Is that the road to Pioche I see?
Yes US 93
I did an appraisal in what I will call an economically challenged area of O town and came in at $85,000 for 1100 SF more or less. The lender sent in three sales and asked me to include them and “weight the value higher”. Imagine the balls to do this in the first place.
I pulled the three sales and 2 were flips and the 3rd was not through MLS. We don’t use any direct sales as we cannot verify with a 3rd party. The flippers are all corrupt.
In any event we were able to discount all three sales and in my retort I explained that the problem is there are 41 active listings within 1 mile of the subject and all are either short sale listings or pre foreclosure listings. So noted in MLS. Additionally all sales but the 3 I used, 27, which occurred in the last year were short sales or foreclosed properties.
How do you want your eggs?
Hatched, as I used to say
Sunnyside up on a raft…hold the sharks
and the 3rd was not through MLS. We don’t use any direct sales as we cannot verify with a 3rd party.
It seems a bit odd to me not to use any “by owner” sales in comps (unless I’m misunderstaning what you mean here by the sale not being through the MLS).
Are you saying that sales through the MLS are always legit (no cash back under table)? Also, how are the flips less legit than a “normal” sale? If a guy buys one day for x and sells the next day (or week or month) for x+y, what about that second sale is illegitimate? Assuming it’s an arms-length transaction and all that…
I’m just curious about your methodology.
I guess SD’s fiscal woes are history now?
San Diego gets S&P blessing on credit
Agency restores city rating and borrowing opportunity
By Matthew T. Hall
STAFF WRITER
Four years after flatlining, San Diego’s borrowing ability was revived instantly yesterday when a ratings agency restored the city’s credit and removed the biggest obstacle to a backlog of capital improvements. The action marks Wall Street’s greatest show of faith in city finances since 2004, when plans for new libraries, fire stations and a range of repairs were scuttled amid credit problems caused by pension and accounting scandals.
Fleet Enema has a city government 2nd to none, literally.
Insanity…
How can people be talking bottom????
This dude Justo Emilio bought 15… Count then 15 houses in between June and November 2005. 5 without using his middle intial and 10 with.
I count 30 deed of trust in that time.
He then quit claim the properties to Love Shack Investments LLC, Ocean Drive Investments LLC,
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/recdocdata/GetRecDataPgDn.aspx?&rec=0&suf=&nm=justo+emilio+&bdt=01/01/1947&edt=5/16/2008&cde=ALL+TYPES&set=250&res=True
Oh… but then those LLCs transfer the properties back to him with his full middle name, Martin….
Under that name 5 more house purchases back in 2005!!!!
20!!!!!!!!!! One dude, 20 houses!!!!
He has lost 6 to foreclsoure… so far.
I count 51 deed of trust (loans taken out) since 2005. 15 released (paid off).
Why are we not hearing THESE stories in the press??????
The only way to get knifecatchers to buy is to convince them a bottom is at hand. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they wait until next year, when they can buy at over ten percent cheaper?
10%???? We’re now dropping at 5% a month here in PHX!
Scary thing, I can come across these mass flippers going flop in a couple hours of looking.
Yet the “experts”…. the paid reporters whose job it USED to be to do investigations and report what is happening can’t seem to find them. Heck, they quote people in their stories saying it is a great time to buy, and in 10 minutes I find the person is a scammer with 8 foreclosures in the last 11 years.
ARGHHHH!!!!
I wonder if their inability to find these stories has something to do with the banner ad at the top of the web page begging you to go to one of 100 different developments and BUY A HOUSE? Hmmmmmm……. I wonder?
“10%???? We’re now dropping at 5% a month here in PHX!”
Over 10 pct includes 5% per month. As always, I try to be conservative in my guesstimations…
Maybe you should send that one to the FBI…
You’ve hit the nail on the head, Darrell. Same sheet’s happening here with the Tucson media.
wow I don’t know exactly what all the transactions mean but there seem to be pages of them ?
We need a TV reality show on this called “scam that bank” Or ” bail this out bernake”
Deflation hits consumer goods package size
The opposite of bulk
Companies roll out smaller sizes for cash-strapped buyers
By Anne D’Innocenzio
ASSOCIATED PRESS
It’s already like that in Japan. My sister lives there and things like a tiny box of American brand cereal costs $4.00, eggs come in 4 and six sizes, milk in tiny cartons that cost as much as a U.S. gallon.
As I’ve said before, this is the future, higher prices, less consumption, and lower expectations (but it will be a fight as the consumers will be kicking and screaming all the way down).
Better add an extra 50lb bag of puppy chow to your grocery list now America ..things are going to get bad and Granny needs to eat too.
Waits for my stock in pet foods to fly with this rumor
What the heck would I do with a third of a dozen eggs?
Fannie Mae scraps higher downpayment requirements
Friday May 16, 9:54 am ET
Fannie Mae scraps increased minimum downpayment requirement for homes in flagging markets
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fannie Mae says it is doing away with higher minimum downpayment requirements for borrowers in distressed real estate markets.
The government-sponsored mortgage financier said Friday it will require minimum downpayments of between 3 percent and 5 percent for all loans that it guarantees.
That replaces a December policy that required a higher minimum if the loan was for a home in a market with declining real estate prices.
Washington-based Fannie says the move is part of its effort to help resuscitate the flagging mortgage market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/fannie_mae_downpayments.html
wont this just make matters worse? no skin in the game!!!
I understand not wanting to read the entire thread before posting. But when a story is the FIRST post in the thread, you would think people would notice before posting it again.
Fannie Mae also said it will continue to allow loans with Community Seconds, one of various assistance programs, for up to 105 percent combined loan-to-value ratio.
With Community Seconds, a borrower has a second-lien mortgage to help cover down payment and closing costs, with funding usually provided by a state or local housing agency, employer or a nonprofit organization.
“We recognize that down payment assistance programs remain a viable tool for borrowers who can afford a mortgage long-term, but might need a little help getting started,” Sullivan said.
On May 6, when Fannie Mae reported first-quarter results, it announced other initiatives, including a plan to provide up to $10 billion to help Housing Finance Authorities (HFA) serve first-time homebuyers “of modest means.” In some cases, Fannie Mae said, it will buy HFA mortgages that have greater than 97 percent loan-to-value ratios.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080516/fanniemae_downpayments.html?.v=7
Big 3.5% decline in Portland Oregon house prices. We have so, so far to fall, so I remain a bitter renter…
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/121091010748010.xml&coll=7
Soon you guys will be like your buddies to the South in California, with 30%+ declines all over the place
Here is a beautiful example of how to mislead with statistics, brought to you from the Construction Industry Research Board. Putting on statistical blinders and looking at this graph with eyes squinted makes it look like SD construction is rebounding. Never mind the graph only shows March and April building permits (and I suspect a different story entirely would emerge if the other ten months were included!)…
One comparison which can be made from this misleading graph: This April’s building permit level is at the lowest level in six years (2003-2008), down from 2400 in 2005 to 484 currently (more than 80 pct decline).
Please focus your attention on the one-month uptick from March 2008, and ignore the steep decline from bubble year construction levels.
Sorry, I guess the decline off 2400 is only 79.8 pct…
Posted this too late for many to notice before:
Coyote Springs: Imagining the Next Great Ghost Town
‘Sim City’, NV, 1.27.2007 (44 photos)
http://www.roamingphotos.com/us/nv/coyotesprings/
sorry for double post;didnt show up right away
224 permits sounds like a smallish number for a county with maybe 100 m households, but it is hard to tell how this compares to past years’ permit levels from a graph that only shows March and April permits…
April housing construction news positive
224 permits issued countywide; in March it was 17
By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER
May 16, 2008
Two positive signals in the housing industry – higher construction permits and improved builder confidence – suggested yesterday that the market is not moving inexorably in a downward direction.
100 m households? I think you are confusing country with county.
Sorry — I meant 1m hhs (not enough caffeine yet, I guess…)
But to clarify my point, 484 starts for 1,000,000 households amounts to about one housing start per 2000 households…not quite a high growth rate in the housing stock for the near-term future.
Flight-to-quality investments are back in fashion again today…
Gold future 898.80 +18.80 +2.14%
30-Year Bond 4.51% -0.07 -1.42%
10-Year Bond 3.78% -0.06 -1.59%
The inflation trade is back. Oil breaking out to new highs, could see 150 this summer. Gold over 900, correction over?
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 126.17 +2.32 +1.87
Natural Gas 11.646 +0.09 +0.79
Corn 603.5 +4.5 +0.75
Soybeans 1395.0 +47.5 +3.53
30yr Bond 117.375 +0.953125 +0.82
10yr Note 115.734375 +0.453125 +0.39
NY Gold 903.7 +23.7 +2.69
NY Silver 17.045 +0.36 +2.15
Dumping money into l-t Treasuries is not an inflation trade. It is a fright-to-quality trade.
Just got a call from one of our lender clients. She asked for a fee quote and when I gave it she asked if I was the person doing it. I said yes, and she said well I have to check our blocked list and I know you are not on it.
I asked what the “blocked list” was and she stated that the lenders have accumulated a list of appraisers who had contributed to the runup in values and they could not be used.
I guess I can be happy about being broke for the last 4-5 years. I am swamped now but I cannot tell you how many chapters of writing it takes to explain every little aspect of the market. I am writing epistles about submarkets etc. I have tired of dancing around the terminology and simply say “glutted=hammered, overabundant=too many,saturated=overbuilt, declining=falling, slow market=dead, incentives=fraudulent transaction, builders incentives=bogus sale, flippers=fraudsters.
Basically this blog is making me a better appraiser. Thanks to all and Ben when I collect some of the money from the lender skunks I will send some your way.
Keep up the good work DIMEDROPPED .I would feel good if I were you that your not on the blocked list .Sorry it broke you for 5 years by not going along with the corruption .
That’s rich. First the lenders “blacklisted” certain appraisers by withholding business to any who wouldn’t hit their desired numbers, now they blacklist those same appraisers who went along with their little scams. Better late than never I suppose. Hope business continues to pickup for you Dimedropped…sounds like it’s well-deserved.
That’s exactly what I was thinking. Where’s the blacklist for lenders?
I guess I can be happy about being broke for the last 4-5 years. I am swamped now
God bless!
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=182263
This is a 4000+ sq ft Fannie Mae foreclosure that sat and sat w/the same price in the low $300s since I first became aware of it last fall.
All of a sudden it’s being priced lower and lower about every 2 weeks, most recently moving to $299k and now $279k. I checked that place out. It’s dated but that’s a really cheap price for what you get if the heat bill doesn’t intimidate you. Interesting that Fannie Mae is finally getting serious about moving it.
Who knows? The time might be ripe for a lowball!
Add fuel oil and oppressive property taxes and you have a knife catchers dream date.
LOL.
Well, I didn’t mean me. That baby’s got almost $12k/year tax bill with it. I got a friend w/an older and probably less efficient 4000 sq fter. W/the wood stove, she still paid $1000/mo for oil this past winter (and this winter was mild).
Wow, that’s a honkin’ big house and lot size for the money. Looks like at least a 6-car garage, with a description that implies 12! Too bad the property tax rate looks to be double Florida’s. Tried to look at it in Google maps, but the resolution is worse than for boonies places in Alabama - was surprised at that, since it looks to be pretty close to Syracuse.
Chip,
But for what??? Where do you work to pay the king his ransom(property taxes)? Can you bear the pain of 5-6month winters, lake effect snow daily, maintaining such a monstrosity not to mention heating it. None of it is founded in reality.
Exeter - all true. What a waste. Wonder what that sucker cost to build, even in the 1970s. There are occasional moments when I wish I liked cold. Unfortunately, I hate it. For that price and half the tax, I wouldn’t need a job.
wow…that garage is amost twice the sice of my current crib
So buying/bought a bunch of essential gear. Abrasion resistant underwear, puncture resistant thermals etc. when I got back I looked up the company on google and was mildly shocked.
A government front? I have no idea, but a very strange combination of product mix. Unless military. I thought about buying shares, unfortunately it trades 5,000 shares per day
http://www.fairchildsports.com/01-technical-introa.html
Hoz, you are a trip! Do we know you from somewhere?
The guy on the phone at Vanguard kept calling me dear.
Do you help people allocate funds ? Would you ever?
Tx, i was thinking of starting a charity fund with you. you pick the %. I start with 6k. We could all invest. And go on CNBC or Oprah w/ben.
How to be lazy and worry free.
Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) 15%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index (VEIEX) 10%
Vanguard European Stock Index (VEURX) 2 -5 %
Vanguard Extended Market Index (VEXMX) 10%
Vanguard High-Yield Corporate (VWEHX) 10%
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX) 10%
Vanguard Long-Term U.S. Treasury (VUSTX) 10%
Vanguard Pacific Stock Index (VPACX) 15%–20%
Vanguard Small Cap Growth (VISGX) 2 -5 %
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index (VISVX) 2 -5 %
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 2-5%
T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (TRAMX) 3-5%
Setting the ranges if going up to 5% take funds from the 500 index and 1% off the High yield corp, tips fund, and LT treasuries.
This is designed as a full investment fund, a back track record without the TRowe fund added has an annual return of 22% over the last 5 yrs. I can also envision completely dropping the European fund, because I think that market is toast, put the rest of the capital into the Pacific index.
These funds are not perfect, but are very balanced with little overlap. When and if there is a good South American fund….get into it!
Right now, the best is iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) - too heavy in banks to my liking, yet it just keeps going up.
Most importantly if you like to look at your positions more than once a month, you are in the wrong investment.
Have fun!
Hoz —
You give the best free advice I have ever received.
Sincerely,
Professor Bear
I’ve got one where my position size is like 50 x the average daily volume.
Yes, I’m nuts.
Stop reading my mind!
Oh boy .. …
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/15/will-barack-throw-mama-from-the-train/
“From 1989 until October 1993, Larry Johnson served as a Deputy
Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism.”
Must have been wearing a diaper when a Jimmy Carter was president.
We became a nation of…
Kool-Aid drinkers & HELOC raisers
The high price of the war on drugs
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080516/wl_time/cannarcoterrorbestopped;_ylt=ApeKuYV7f.nhYhSc9mTGQ4Cs0NUE
Bush’s “good friends” the Saudis just rejected a personal plea from W to increase oil production. There is something so degrading about the Prez being reduced to begging from folks he has always announced as “allies” and personal friends. And getting kicked in the teeth for his trouble.
Twice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/world/middleeast/17prexy.html?hp
And if you believe that, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
This is the brief transcript from that little meeting:
Bush: King Abby, All my oil buddies want to make more money. I’m gonna officially ask you to increase production and your gonna officially say no. Then we’re go swim in your pool full of Greenbacks and light it on fire once we’re done.
Abby: As you wish, Prince Bush.
Or something pathetic like that.
You forgot the “heh, heh, heh” to make it truly Bushy. And they jumped in the pool holding hands.
“…And they jumped in the pool holding hands.”
NO, think male anatomy…just below the navel… that limp fleshy
….your gonna need eyeglasses…genetic tool…. that is partly responsible for 6+ BILLION humans.
the Saudis are probably tried of Bush killing the dollar
–
“The best months to sell your home are early March through the end of June.”
If prices are falling during March-June, first time in years, we can only guess what would happen later in the year.
Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Best months to buy and sell a home
The best months to buy a home are late July, August, Dec, and early January. Buyers are on vacation or tied up with the holidays. As a result, there are less bidders driving up the cost of properties.
The best months to sell your home are early March through the end of June. And the Fall months of Sept, Oct, and early Nov. The kids are in school and parents have time to look for homes.
http://bayarearealestatebubble.blogspot.com/
Hahaha.
Completely different topic, but this reminds me of the big news headline yesterday: “McCain predicts war can be won by 2013″. Did anyone else catch that?
2013 huh? That number wouldn’t have been carefully selected to occur right after (what could be) McCain’s re-election bid in 2012?
These kinds of “moving target” statements are designed for sheep. Why is housing a good sell in the Spring? Now why is it a good sell in the fall? Why should I believe the war can be won by 2007? Why 2013? Why ever?
Another sign of the times:
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/05/15/millerbrewing_0516.html?imw=Y
Miller CEO: Drinkers switching to cheaper beers
Does anyone here brew their own beer? Any advice on how to get started?
No, but I wouldn’t mind getting hold of a few gallons of corn ethanol before they add the poison to it. I’d give $10 a gallon, easy!
It’s more trouble than it’s worth. My sister is little Ms Survivalist that can cook, can or brew nearly anything.
I think she finally gave up and ordered a bunch of cases of Flying Monkey beer from Kansas City and Spotted Cow from New Glarus Wisconsin …and is carefully rationing it out to my BIL for special meals and pizza bashes
don’t know whether this would help, but Science Friday on NPR had a beer segment today (they were broadcasting from Milwaukee). Might be relevant info in the links.
Yea, caught it. I don’t know how many times I’ve heard it explained what hops and barley and yeist and all that stuff do (including today on the show), and yet I still can’t fathom trying to do this on my own.
Store bought works for me
Don’t know if this is too late Slim, but you could probably google a few stores in your area that sell beer supplies. Most any one you find will have a “starter kit” with all the basics and instructions, and once in a while you’ll even find a shop that’ll guide you along.
I”ve brewed my own beer a few times and enjoyed it, and the stuff actually tasted good. You’re not going to save any money doing it, usually. It’s more for personal enjoyment.
Question posted on marketwatch website:
“I have read your articles and want to tell you that you are right on the money with this issue: I am two months behind on my house payments. I have been calling my lender every day, wanting to know if they can please review my loan so I may be able to qualify for a loan modification. But I get nowhere.
I am one of those owners who wants to stay in their home and work something out so we will not lose this place. I have put so much into it and I wanted to be here years to come. I have sent my lender all my financials, pay stubs, everything but no answer, and when I call, I get the run-around. Do they want to foreclose? What’s your input?
I use to be a loan officer here in Florida and made excellent money doing fully documented conforming and FHA loans. But since our market crashed, not even my clients have good credit anymore. I can’t even help them refinance because they have no equity in their homes. It’s a very sad situation. God help us all.”
This women is the ultimate FB’r and approved many others to become a deadbeat like her, I hope she ends up homeless, or on the pole…
The GSEs: Where Do We Stand?
William Poole*
President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chartered Financial Analysts of St. Louis
St. Louis
Jan. 17, 2007
http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2007/01_17_07.html
wow, i wonder if he has a crystal ball or maybe he knew what kind of a monster was headed our way?
Treasury secretary describes financial markets as ‘considerably calmer’ than in March
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/paulson_economy.html
“The fiscal stimulus will provide support to the economy as we weather the housing correction, capital markets turmoil and higher energy and food prices,” Paulson said in his prepared remarks.
Another Friday late afternoon market rally speech, but I don’t think that an extra $600 will negate the affects of all those other events.
Oh, wait, is this the same “who coulda known?” treasury secretary that couldn’t spot the housing bubble if it were a tornado 50 yards away? And I should care what he thinks why?
Oh his company Goldman Sachs made a pretty penny. He knows what was going to happen and is just playing stupid. he is not that dumb, just an outright liar.
http://www.avpress.com/n/16/0516_s1.hts
PALMDALE - Two vacant westside homes on the same lot were ravaged by fire Thursday afternoon, sending up a plume of black smoke visible for miles over the Antelope Valley.
What’s that smell? Insurance fraud?
Nice Friday ramp from the PPT. Close it green, boys.Oil at $128 must be bullish for stocks. The USD sure looks sick though.
so when do we get plastic nickels ? wood being too expensive
“Huckabee later issued a statement… “I apologize that my comments were offensive, that was never my intention,” he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1644849320080517
No mention in the article if Huckabee was wearing one of these t-shirts:
“…The Tennessee native said he’s providing a public service of sorts, reminding people they have a right to offend.”
http://www.ajc.com/wireless/content/metro/cobb/stories/2008/05/13/mulligans_0514.html