The Housing Bubble

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “Foreclosures. They’re not just for low-priced homes anymore. Douglas County, one of the richest and fastest-growing counties in the nation, is seeing on average one $1 million home go into foreclosure each week. ‘I haven’t seen any $2 million homes yet, but I definitely have seen homes pushing $1.5 million,’ said Dianne Bailey, the Douglas County public trustee.”

“She said that the homes are mostly speculative - those built without buyers. ‘These are typically developer-built homes that have never been sold,’ she said. ‘They are not typically owner-occupied homes.’”

“‘The lower end of the market is still the most hit by foreclosures,’ said Mike Rinner of the Genesis Group. ‘But if you can’t sell your lower-end home, it puts you at a disadvantage to move up. It means there are not as many new-home buyers. It’s a reverse snowball effect, if you will.’”

“He said some builders may have been trying to sell a house for $1.2 million that cost them $900,000 to build and until the foreclosure were unwilling to budge on the price. ‘The lender starts the foreclosure to protect itself, and the builder gets a reality shot,’ Rinner said.”

The Denver Post from Colorado. “Foreclosure filings in Colorado continued to surge in the first quarter, but at a slower pace than last year, according to the Colorado Division of Housing. Public trustees reported 23 percent more foreclosure starts in the first quarter of 2008 than in the same period last year.”

“But that pace is slower than the 40 percent jump seen across 2007 and the 31 percent pace of 2006.”

“‘We are hopeful we are looking at a 15 percent to 20 percent increase in foreclosures for the year,’ said Ryan McMaken, a Housing Division spokesman who compiles the quarterly survey.”

“McMaken said he never thought a 20 percent jump would look good, but it does after last’s year huge surge.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “Tucson-area new-home sales and prices in April continued to show a slide from 2007, according to a report released Friday by local housing market analyst John Strobeck. He said he doesn’t expect the market to bounce back to pre-slowdown levels for years - possibly as long as a decade.”

“‘People want to know when we’re going to back to the other market,’ he said. ‘We’re not. This is our market.’”

“New-home closings dropped to 269, down about 50 percent from a year ago and more than 10 percent from March, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter showed. The number of permits pulled was 386, down 40 percent from April 2007, but up slightly from March.”

“The median price for a new home dropped to $218,000, down about 10 percent from last April and down about 2 percent the previous month. The average price from new homes also fell. It was $250,456 in April, down about 14 percent from a year ago, and down about 4 percent from March.”

The Arizona Republic. “The glut of properties offered elsewhere at fire-sale prices has not deterred more than 50 people from camping out for a chance to buy one of 100 homesites in a master-planned development in northeast Mesa.”

“Even potential homeowners in Blandford Homes Mountain Bridge are baffled by the buying frenzy, which began Monday night when the first two home buyers took a number rather than wait to line up later in the week for the sale, which begins at 9 a.m. today.”

“Blandford decided Wednesday night to increase the number of homesites that will go on sale today to 100 from 62. Blandford Homes president Jeff Blandford said the decision was based on potential buyers from as far away as Alaska and Canada who worried they’d spend $800 to fly to the Valley and not be able to buy a home once here.”

“Blandford has been treating campers to PeiWei, Vito’s and other take-out food. In the morning, his sales agents deliver Starbucks coffee, doughnuts and bagels.”

“Home values are still challenged on the outskirts of the Valley with gasoline prices nearing $4 a gallon. But regions with good freeway access and desert views are exceptions, Blandford said.”

“‘It’s not that bad everywhere,’ he said. ‘The market is not dead by any means. We’re still correcting ourselves from the outrageous market we had, and we’re still having to pay the price for that market.’”

“The Times Online on Nevada. “Sin City has been America’s biggest boomtown over the past three decades, repeatedly defying expectations to record phenomenal growth on every level - until, that is, the city’s economy hit the skids this year in the wake of a nationwide housing crisis.”

“‘It’s mindboggling how much the housing market is affecting everything,’ said Darci Curry, a property broker, who is desperately fighting foreclosure herself after her mortgage unexpectedly ‘reset, capped out and doubled’ to $3,200 a month in December.”

“Scratch beneath the surface and even The Strip is losing its lustre. Scott Kleven, a floor supervisor patrolling the card tables in Bally’s casino on The Strip, said: ‘People are definitely spending less. Gas prices are rising, the economy is declining, the elections are coming up - no one knows what’s going on in the States.’”

“In the past year, the average house price in Las Vegas has fallen by 17 per cent. In addition to the huge losses suffered by homeowners, the city’s construction workforce is looking very vulnerable. The property boom left Las Vegas with a construction industry that accounted for 12 per cent of its jobs, twice the national average.”

“About 10,000, or 10 per cent, of those construction jobs have been lost in the past year and many more are expected to go in the next year or two.”

“Jeremy Aguero, a Las Vegas economist, said: ‘The exuberant spending in shops and restaurants was predicated on the unsustainable base of home equity extraction. The situation is serious. The number of foreclosures is rising and, with the economy so dependent on construction, unemployment is rising, too, which is a problematic combination.’”

“Home rage, the trashing of houses that are about to be repossessed, has become increasingly commmon in Las Vegas.”

“The McStaff family apparently was so desperate at being evicted from 11141 South Lavandou Drive in Las Vegas that at least one member appears to have whacked lumps out of the property before they left.”

“A month later the property, which fetched $525,000 as a newly built home in 2006, is back on the market at $270,000 - minus a few chunks taken out of the living room wall and a large hole in the ceiling next door.”

“Stripped of fixtures such as the fridge and the cooker, the kitchen sink contains a bowl of washing-up, while the bathroom basin is acting as a receptacle for cigarette stubs.”

“Weeks after the departing owners left a note for their bank, blaming it for ruining their dream, the floors are scattered with old garden chairs, piles of pens and bank statements.”

“Gail Burks, the head of the Nevada Fair Housing Centre, a citizens advice bureau, said that home rage had become common in Las Vegas. ‘There have been five foreclosures on my street, three of which ripped everything out,’ said Ms Banks, who receives about 600 requests a month now for advice on foreclosure, compared with about 200 in October last year.”

“There are 28,655 vacant properties on the market in Las Vegas as a result of foreclosure, Ms Banks said.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “Statistics from the National Association of Realtors showed a 20.2 percent decrease in local home prices in the first quarter when compared with the first quarter of 2007. The median price of a home sold through the group’s members was $247,600 at the end of March.”

“‘People are recognizing that, because prices dropped, they are better able to get into homes,’ said Sheila Conway, managing partner of Urban Environmental Research. ‘Prices are starting to come back into line with incomes.’”

“Paul Mikkelsen, owner of Vizion Furniture, said he thinks the fellow Las Vegans who expect the economy to be good or excellent in the next 12 months are a little too optimistic.”

“Mikkelsen, who sells Scandinavian and contemporary furniture for the home, said he’s still feeling the effects of a sluggish housing market. Wealthier consumers who drop $4,000 to $5,000 or more per shopping spree still come in as often as they did before the downturn in 2007, Mikkelsen said, but buyers who spend $1,000 to $2,000 per trip ‘have dropped off the face of the earth.’”

“‘House values have fallen, and people can’t take anymore money out of their homes right now,’ he said. ‘Plus, they’re concerned about keeping their jobs. People are worried: ‘Should we buy or should we wait?’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “The fall in median sales prices, which in April were down 23 percent, has helped make homes more affordable and put more people in the range to buy them. But that drop in prices is hurting homeowners who want to draw on equity.”

“Countrywide has suspended the home equity credit lines of most of its Las Vegas customers. Bloomberg News reports that since January lenders are targeting cities where values are falling. That includes Los Angeles and Chicago. Along with Countywide, Bank of America and Washington Mutual have frozen 600,000 equity credit lines nationwide, Bloomberg reported.”

“The rapid appreciation of home prices in 2004 and 2005 prompted many homeowners to borrow against that newfound wealth. But the cutoff to equity lines may be showing up in retail spending, which, according to the latest statistics in February, was down more than 3 percent from February 2007.”

“Brad Henderson, president of Henderson-based Evofi One, a mortgage broker and banker, estimates that as many as 15,000 people have had their credit lines suspended. It doesn’t matter what their credit score or income are, says Henderson, who adds it is based on loan-to-value.”

“‘It is one more thing taking money out of the economy,’ Henderson says.”

The Park Record from Utah. “Housing construction in Summit County dropped by 77 percent in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the same quarter last year, the biggest decline of any county in the state, according to the University of Utah’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.”

“The number of new building permits is falling at a record-breaking pace, matching a statewide slowdown in the building of houses, twin homes, apartments and condominiums. Statewide, officials reported a 58.2 percent decline in total residential permits, the report said.”

“Summit County Building Official Dallas Monsen said spring is usually a slow time of year. ‘Everyone knows the economy is bad,’ he said. ‘A lot of people are biding their time.’”

‘The first quarter of 2008 ranks as the most severe contraction ever reported in one quarter, surpassing the fourth quarter of 2007, which had a 53.4 percent drop.”

“‘It’s the most serious decline we’ve had in the last 20 years,’ said James Wood of UBEBR. ‘It was so sudden.’”

“The peak for new residential building permits was in 2005 when the state handed out about 28,000 housing permits. In 2006, the state suffered an 8 percent drop. ‘The first half of 2007 was pretty orderly,’ Wood said. ‘Then the credit crisis hit and the sub-prime market disappeared.’”

“‘Ultimately our industry gets it,’ Mike Brodsky, owner of Hamlet Homes, said. Hamlet Homes owns the condos at Bear Hollow, some of which have been on the market for three years, Brodsky said. However, he added the price of the residential units remains high. ‘The prices today are still up significantly from what they were when the condos were first put on the market,’ he said.”

“Dennis Hanlon, a Park-City based Realtor, said his agency’s home sales are ‘definitely down’ and residences are taking longer to sell. Hanlon said home prices remain high despite the downturn.”

“‘Buyers have unrealistic expectations,’ he said. ‘They read about how bad the housing market is and think they’ll go to a resort town and get something for a lot less.’”